The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Team tiers from Super Bowl or Bust to Mock Draft Enthusiasts

Episode Date: October 16, 2025

We're one-third of the way through the NFL regular season, and we know a thing or two about each of the league's 32 teams. We know enough, in fact, to start separating the teams into distinct groups. That's right, it's team tiers time. Robert Mays and Dave Helman drop all 32 teams in one of five buckets—from Super Bowl or Bust to Mock Draft Enthusiasts—on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)7:12 Super Bowl or Bust20:57 Playoff Teams43:42 Wild Card Caliber55:13 Tier 4, Good Vibes1:04:03: Tier 4, Bad Vibes1:13:52 Mock Draft EnthusiastsConnect with The Athletic Football ShowX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: [e-mail]: Robert Mays and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We did this show six weeks into last season, and we're running it back this season. We're a third of the way through the year, and we used this as an opportunity last year to just take a step back and try to figure out where these teams sit in the hierarchy of the NFL. I did it with Dave Hellman last season. We're doing it with Dave Helman again this season. So me and Dave broke the NFL into, let's call it, five and a half tiers, all 32 teams. where they sit a third of the way through the season.

Really enjoyed this conversation with Dave. Let's get to it right now. I don't know the exact date we did this last year, but I do know it was at this exact moment in the season. After six weeks of the 2024 NFL season, you Dave Hellman came on this podcast while you were not an employee of the athletic to do team tiers. And so I felt like for many different reasons,

it was the time that we should revisit this again. I had the time of my life doing it last year. It was a breath of fresh air, and I'm so excited to be doing it as part of the show now. And I'm excited to see how these age because I actually, I say it all the time. Like, this show before I was on it was such a valuable resource to me. And I went back several times last year to listen to that and see how well and poorly some of it aged. And we got a few things, right? There were definitely a few blind spots as well.

So I'm looking forward to see what my track record looks like this time around. The first two tiers that we had on that one, and we'll talk about the methodology behind this years in a second, were Super Bowl or bust and locked in playoff teams. Those were tiers one and two. All of the teams we had in the locked in playoff teams tiers, six weeks in the last season made the playoffs. So we did okay on that front.

This time around, we have five-ish tiers. Like, it was difficult to find the exact right collection of tiers. That's always a problem with this. So what we did is you and I tiered out the teams separately. and then we sent them to Beller and we tried to have him figure out a way that we could have five-ish tiers, six tiers that made sense the way

that we had bucketed them and then we could go back and forth because we didn't want to know each other's lists in advance. You can probably say this every year and I get it. The whole point of the league is to be weird and very parody-driven, but it feels really weird right now.

Aside from, I know who I think is Super Bowl caliber and I know who I think stinks. And everything else is kind of up for interpretation. and I will say right now there are at least two or three teams in my list where they're just there because I didn't know what else to do with them. I have more than two or three.

Okay. So if that makes you feel any better. If you take issue with where I put your team, it's probably because I didn't know what to do. Just throwing that out there before we get into it. I just think six weeks in is a good time to like take a breath, step back and be like, all right, what are these teams and where do they sit?

So that's why we did it this time last year and I felt like it was the right time to revisit it this year. As far as the tiers go, Here are the ways that we're going to lay this out. Again, we have like five and a half tiers is the way that I would describe it. Again, first tier, Super Bowl or Bus, same as last year. Second tier, solid playoff team, same as last year. Tier three, we're calling Wild Card Calibur.

I'll explain why we're framing it that way when we get to the tier. I think there are some teams who are not going to be wild card teams, but I think they're of the quality of what we typically think of as a wildcard team. Tier four is split into two categories because even though these teams are kind of in the same spot. I think ranking one above the other is kind of weird, and you'll see why when we get there. But it's essentially a tier split into two.

Half of these teams are in tier four with good vibes. Half of them are in tier four with bad vibes, right? Like the arrow is pointed in different directions for these collections of teams. I have like AKA designators for these tiers that we'll talk about when we get there, but that's the explanation. And then tier five at the bottom, same as last year, mock draft enthusiasts. That's such a good category name. And it describes, get ready to do.

to learn Dane Bruegler, buddy. Hey, come find us on Building the Beast if you're in this category. We're here all year. As far as how I picked the teams here, there have definitely been years and times and examples where I would have done something like this and I would have been like deep in the DVOA. Right? It'd have been like, beep, boop, beep. Like where are these teams actually when you look at the numbers and what are they doing

down to down? And obviously there's going to be some of that. It wouldn't be the show if there wasn't. But this grouping and the way that I made this list was far more vibes driven than I probably anticipated it being before I started the exercise. I kind of, I love that, especially because like, you know, I've come on this show as a one-off from time to time and done episodes with you, but we preview and recap every week now, and we've been doing it since the end of August, basically.

And first, like, you can get your fill of that, like, for most of the week. And we will very seriously talk about every matchup, every week, and you will know how much cover one the team is running and how good they are at doing it. it. I do think, and we still want to take this seriously and not just throw shit against the wall, but I do think it can be nice to sort of reset and look at things from a more macro vibes-based view. Like I do think that's useful in moderation as long as it's not the only thing you're doing. Every once in a while, I think it's important to trust your gut. And I think with something like this, there is a lot of like, this is my gut feeling about this team and where they

belong, even if maybe some tangible evidence might push me in a slightly different direction. So Let's dig into this. Let's kick it off with the Super Bowl or bust tier. First question, how many teams did you have in the Super Bowl or bust tier? I bet I'm going to have more than you. Because I don't know about that. I have six. I have six as well.

Damn. All right. I thought I really, because you're a harsher greater than me. I am typically. So I'm a little surprised to hear that. But yeah, like I went through it and I was like, I firmly believe in all six of these teams. Even if some of them have warts, even if some of them are in a downturn as we do this heading into week seven, there are six that I can envision playing in that game.

Here's why I think I was comfortable putting six up there is that a couple of those teams that have experienced a downturn, I'm either trying to learn lessons from previous mistakes that I have made or it's a combination of that and the quarterback is too good to figure it out, right? Like the Buffalo Bills are one of my teams, even though their defense is a mess because they have Josh Allen and defenses tend to be volatile and maybe can improve. Let's start with the bills for that very reason where,

and we do this every year. do this with a lot of the contenders every year where because the stakes are so high and that is what will define the bill's season is do you finally get to the Super Bowl? Because the stakes are so high, it is easy to have a panic attack about every bad angle that Cole Bishop takes. And there are many of them. And there are many. And every time James Cook doesn't touch the ball as many times as he should,

which happened on Monday night against Atlanta, they're still really good. And they have the reigning MVP. And every year, their defense is a mass unit. and Sean McDermott finagels it to where they get to the finish line. They're going to be fine in the sense that I have the utmost faith that they'll be there in January. And yeah, that might bite them in the playoffs like it has so many times over the last five years. But, you know, even with all of their flaws, the bills have been two or three snaps away from finally getting over that hump. I mean, last year, AFC title game.

Josh gets the ball back with whatever it was on the clock, three and a half minutes. You got to go, I think they were on like their own 30. Like it was there for them. Even, and we were panicking about them at different times last year. They've earned the right where I'm just like, they can be a vibes based team where you're like, nah, they'll be okay. Like they're going to win 11, 12 games. This isn't a one for one comparison because I do think that last year's Ravens had more

convincing impressive wins six weeks into the season than this year's Bill's team has had. But remember last year we were freaking out about the Ravens defense halfway through the season. We were just like, oh man, like this offense is. so good, but they just can't figure out the defense. And then they kind of figured out the defense. They feasted on some bad quarterbacks, but I don't need the Bill's defense to be the seventh best

defense in the league. I need them to be more than a speed bump against the run. And I think over the course of the year, that may happen. When you couple that with Josh Allen, I still think that the bills deserve to be mentioned here. There are also a couple teams where, if it was on the line, this idea of Super Bowl or bust, not only being the

tier you belong in, but the overall mindset about your season, I think pushed a couple teams a little bit up for me where it's just like, you can, if you're a team in the locked in playoff teams category, you can feel good about being in that category based on what your preseason expectations looked like. I'm pushing the bills and another one of these teams up because this is a Super Bowl or bust season for them overall. There are a couple teams where I, I'm very much of the mindset of believe what a team is telling you about

itself. And so there are a couple, I'll just, I'll say a couple of mine. I mean, go for it. The, I mean, the Green Bay Packers are here. Even with the downturn. here over the last couple of weeks. You don't trade for Micah Parsons on a team that was already... A team that was already expected to be among the league's best trading for Micah Parsons is an undeniable signal. And it doesn't mean you have to win the Super Bowl this year. He'll obviously be there going forward.

And Jordan Love is still a young player. But that sends a signal to me where you think you have a chance to do something special. So you can't hide from that now. And then nor should they. Like, I'm not really worried about the Packers either, even though it's been a few weeks since it's looked impressive. I mean, they still have a winning record. I think they're going to be fine.

But that one, and then the other one is the Rams for me, where it's not so much a signal that they're sending me. Their quarterback's 37 years old. What are we doing this for? Like, you might get one more year of Matthew Stafford. That's totally plausible, but the future is now. Like, this is what you got. And everything the Rams should be about,

should be about trying to get over the hump one more time before Matthew Stafford probably retires or at least stops playing at the level that he is. I kind of thought I took the same mindset with both of those teams, both of whom I had in the Super Bowl or bus category, because I think they are going to be locked in playoff teams, both the Packers and the Rams. But we aspire to bigger things for both of those teams. Exactly. And I don't think those aspirations are unfounded.

And that's why I think I'm comfortable bumping them into the top tier. It has been a couple weeks since we saw that version of the Packers that looked utterly dominant over the first two weeks of the season. But we did see that version. Like it has happened. It was not a mirage. Yes. And so the fact that they have that gear, I still feel okay putting the Packers up there.

I still think that they have that level to them. And, you know, the defense played well against the Bengals. It was a bunch of contested catches from Jamar Chase. Like, I still have a lot of faith in that unit, and I do have faith in the offense. Figuring it out probably makes it seem like they're not playing well right now. Like, they lost to the Cowboys because they gave up 30 on defense. But I still just think this is overall a very good team. And I still feel that way about the Rams.

Like, I think that the Rams top the bottom, there are imperfections in their secondary on the second and third level of their defense. and I think that may come back to bite them in the biggest moments of the year as we get a little bit deeper into this thing. But overall, I think both the Packers and the Rams, it didn't take too much for me to put them in there. Here's something that I thought about when I was thinking about the Rams is, and they've done a good job of pivoting back to the boring responsible stuff. But this is the FDM picks team. And I wonder if they'll send us a signal here over the next two or three weeks and try to add to it. Well, they already have an extra one next year. They got an extra one.

they got... I think they'll hang on to that one. I think you're right, especially with Stafford's age. Exactly. But I would love to see the Rams swing and trade for a corner. Even if it's not like some jaw-dropping trade, just bring somebody in on the back end who can make that a little firmer, a little more solid.

I have my eye on that heading toward the trade deadline. And we'll be talking about plenty of that kind of stuff as we get closer to the trade deadline. So both of us had the bills, the Packers, and the Rams in the Super Bowl or bust tier. Two teams that played on Sunday night, I feel comfortable putting both of them in there. I think after our conversation about that game on Sunday night, I'd be surprised if you felt differently.

I think the Chiefs and the Lions both definitively in the Super Bowl or bust tier. Didn't think very hard about it. Okay. Last one. I have the Philadelphia Eagles in here. I'm the guy who came into the season thinking the Eagles were going to ransack the league. And obviously, I'm not feeling great about that with where the vibes are in Philly and particularly the way they looked against New York.

I don't really care about them losing that game to Denver. That's life in the NFL. But I'm not backing down now. I mean, I'm less confident than I was, obviously. I mean, I thought the Eagles maybe wouldn't run away, but I thought the Eagles would be the class of the NFC. I thought the lessons that they learned from the experience doing this two years ago would lead to a better process.

And that hasn't been the case so far. Like I had faith that the offensive staff would be better this time around, and that hasn't been the case so far. But, and I remember saying this to you when we did this show last year, look at the roster. Look at the roster and I don't think I had them in that top tier last year. I don't think you did either. Because I think that I was scared about how it all felt.

And that's why right now I'm like, I don't care. Look at the roster. It doesn't matter to me. I think the offense specifically, the plan has not been great, and we can take issue with the Kevin Petulow-led version of the Eagles offense. if they get Landon Dickerson back and they can start running the ball on their own terms at a level that if not to the way they did last year

approaches that, then I think all of this starts to feel a little bit easier on that side of the ball. The defense, the personnel concerns are, they are what they are, right? Like that a second outside corner spot, I think that the lack of edge depth, Zadari Smith just retires.

I do think that the talent on that side of the ball is not what it was last year. I think we're starting to see that a little bit, but I still feel like there are just too many good players top to bottom on this team to even bump them down one of those two years after the lessons I've tried to learn from last season. It doesn't bode well that Landon Dickerson being out can just undo such a collection of talent. Like that says something to me. You combine that with like the Tylerstein thing and the fact that they, Beckton was there last year.

I think even if he's a little bit shaky and past protection, like that group with him at right guard last year is truly like a mauling ass kicking unit that they just do not have right now. Would you at least meet me by saying, like, and I'm not trying to shit too much on Kevin Petulow, but like an exceptional coaching staff could scheme around that and be more functional than what I think the Eagles have been. So here's the problem, though, is that the Eagles didn't really scheme around that last year. But they didn't have to. Their answer to the problems last year was, we're just going to run the ball 40 times a game and no one can do anything about it. Now people can do something about it. I guess my point is I would like to think that not having Landon Dickerson shouldn't just make all of that goal.

way. Like, there's enough other stuff going for you. But on the flip side, when Landon Dickerson's back, I think you can get back to that. And that's why I'm not worried about Philadelphia. Yeah, I'm, again, I'm trying to learn my lesson after what's happened over the last couple years. The issue with the Eagles is it's not just that the vibes can be good or bad. It's that they can change immediately, right? Like every two weeks, a team that looks like everything is trending in the wrong direction and it's falling apart can suddenly look like the best team in the NFL again. And so I'm just not willing to play that game anymore. I'm putting them in the top tier. They have won 76% of their games dating back to the 2022 season,

and it's still just so dramatic over there all the time. It really is. It's easy to hand wave some of this stuff. They won the Super Bowl, and they looked breathtaking in the playoffs. But all this stuff happened last year, too. Like the Carolina game, it just is. The Bucks game.

I mean, the Bucs game, at least they were beat to hell. But yeah, yeah, I mean, this stuff happened multiple times last year, too. It's just, it's part of who they are at this point. But they can overcome it. It can also sink them. It's so funny. Like it sank them in 2023. They overcame it to a degree last year.

I'm going to bet on the talent and think that they can do it again. It's actually a really good thing to bring up. It's like which version of the Eagles are we going to get? Are we going to get something closer to the 2020 version or something closer to the 2024 version? I would argue that in 2023, it wasn't just the coordinator changes on defense. It's the fact that the defensive personnel was significant. significantly worse than it was in 2022.

I don't think it's quite to that level now, but I do think that it's a downgrade from what they had last year, and so I just have less inherent faith in the defense getting back to a really good level because of that. With how much how he likes to do to, this is another team to have an eye on.

Like Zadarius Smith just retired, I know Nolan Smith will be back at some point, but I wonder if he's content with what he's got on defense right now. I would almost promise you if he's never contented about anything. Yeah, that's fair. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break. Next tier here, tier number two calling playoff teams.

We called it locked in playoff teams last year. These are the teams you feel solid about making the playoffs. How many teams do you have in this tier? I have five. I have six. Oh, okay. Yep. I have six, and I will say I have probably two that could go either way,

and then two in the next tier down that I could maybe bump up to this one. I think there's like four-ish teams on the line between tier two and tier three to me. personally. I don't think any of the locked-in playoff teams, maybe one. There's one team in the playoff team's tier that I think I could have made an argument for in Super Bowl or Boston. So that's where I'll start my list here. Okay. That's the Bucks. I love this twist where you are

giving them a little more credit than me and I'm the Bucks guy. We talked about this a little bit at the initial seat of the table conversation. I don't know if you remember this, but you said this and I agreed with you kind of wholeheartedly. I expected to feel better about the Bucks coming into this discussion than you ultimately did. And I felt the same way. Like when I was looking at the NFC coming into this season, I was like, okay, the Bucks offense last year, really, really, really good, roaring sort of unit.

The defense had some personnel issues, especially on the back end. They needed one more pass rusher. Okay, they go out, they get Hassan Reddick, they draft all those guys. You bring in a Benjamin Morrison and a Jacob Parrish, Antoine Winfield's going to be healthy. And I'm sitting there being like, okay, and this is probably in May, okay. and I was like, okay, I think this team has a real shot. Like in an NFC that I think is a little bit murky with the Lions change turnover

and swapping out some component parts, the Eagles maybe taking a step back. I actually think this team could like really do something. And then some of the injuries start to pile up. Then the Tristan Wharf's things happens. Then we think that we learn that Chris Gowan isn't going to play. And so that kind of put me more down on them going into the season that I anticipated for a good majority of the spring and summer.

But here's the thing now. I actually think they're closer to the team I thought they'd be in May, to the team I thought they'd be in August, because Worf's came back on the right timeline. He looks incredible. Abuka, when he's been healthy, has been excellent. The defense, I think a lot of the vision on that side of the ball has kind of come together.

And so I think that my faith and my excitement about this team for a good chunk of like the 2025 calendar year, I'm kind of back in that spot with them. Does that make sense? No, it completely makes sense. And for the record, I have the Bucks firmly as a playoff team. Like, they are on my definitive playoff team list. I just, I was a little unwilling to bump them up to that next level.

Like, Super Bowl or Bust is at least a little bit beyond what I'm willing to say about Tampa. And maybe that is just still some of the ongoing attrition. And you're right, Worf's coming back and looking like Worf's is such a big thing for them. but you can't keep this receiver core all on the field together at one time. Bucky Irving's dealing with something. And I don't know we got a long season to go, but I haven't seen Tampa at its, what I think could be its full power at least.

And on top of that, we haven't seen them flex yet. Like, as impressive as it is that they pull these games out of the fire, this is still a team that has, I mean, like, come down to the wire in every game they've played.

I mean, Their point differential is what, plus plus 14, which is not terrible, but point differential is a very useful guiding light when it comes to like how good or how bad a team is. And so I just, I want to see them look more like a favorite, even though they've been incredibly impressive. Yeah, the teams they've beat are mostly in like tiers two through five. And so I'm kind of just in and like, let's see how it goes. There are going to be a few of those teams where if it's on the line, I kind of have defaulted to the let's see how it's. goes. But if we did this on December 15th, I would not be surprised at all if we were talking about the Bucks as a team that could win the Super Bowl. Like I think that's absolutely on the table for them.

But right now, just want to see a little bit more. I firmly expect them to be in the playoffs once again, despite most people every summer trying to say that that's not going to happen. So Bucks in there for both of us, who is the next team that was probably the easiest one for you to throw into this tier? I feel crazy for saying this. But like one of the teams that, one of the teams that I thought the least amount in this tier is the Indianapolis Colts. I feel the same way about them and the Seahawks. Okay. Yeah.

Seahawks for sure, too. When I was doing this, the bucks, the Colts and the Seahawks were the ones I just like, without even thinking, I was like, yep, absolutely. I think it is, I don't want to sit here and say I feel definitively better about one or the other. I'm very in on what the Seahawks are doing. I think. Oh, with Indian Seattle? With different, not feeling. No, no, no.

Like, I feel similarly about the two of them. Okay. I think I feel better about the long-term prospects for the Seahawks just because I think Indy's defense and Indies, certain elements of Indies' defensive personnel on the roster, like the cornerback room is just like, it would drive me crazy. Like, I'd be losing sleepover it.

I think Seattle is a more complete roster than the Colts out right now. The defense holds me back with the Colts, but I do think the offense feels so complete that it gives me the utmost confidence. And that's, like I said, it's not meant to knock. the Seahawks, but as long as they don't deal with some sort of crazy bad injury luck, the Colts offense just, I hesitate to use words like unstoppable,

but like they're so balanced and they have so many components that they can lean on. I feel like you can count on that every single week. And then the other part of it too is you're just already at five wins. Like if you're already at five wins this early into the season and you're still going to get a chance to play the Titans again. I just, I feel like this is, it would be a major upset if the Colts can at least get to like 10 wins. I agree.

I think they should be, I mean, the Jags are obviously right there, but I think the Colts are to me right now, the AFC South favorite. Like I think they, I think so too. I would give them the best chance to win the division. Again, I think it just because of how consistent, diverse, flexible the offense has looked over the first six weeks. Like that feels like it has real staying power. It is, okay.

This is a conversation. that I wasn't really thinking about having. I'm trying to figure out why I like the Colts more than the Seahawks. Great question. And I don't know what the answer is. And maybe, and I think the world

of what Darnold has done to this point in the season, maybe part of my brain just expects him to, not like be bad, but just come down to earth from the dizzying highs that he's been on since the season started.

You don't feel the same way about Daniel Jones though? I think like Daniel Jones is, if you watch the Colts you watch the Seahawks. Like Daniel Jones isn't doing anything that hard, in my opinion? Like, he's not making like these insane plays. He's just playing out the offense and making the throws that are available.

That's my point. Like, the Colts have one of the best running backs in the league. Their offensive line is mauling people. And then they've got four or five different guys where I just, I feel like the Colts are asking less of Daniel Jones than the Seahawks are asking of Sam Donald. I actually think that's a really good thing to point out. I think that there have been some, I'm not going to call them lucky, but I think there have been some high variance plays that have gone the Seahawks way.

All of the deep shots have essentially gone in their favor. I mean, that's partially the accuracy that Donald has shown down the field. But can you keep relying on that? And I do think the important thing to point out, and you reference this, the Colts run game is much better than the Seahawks run game is right now. And so they have that to rely on. The Colts right now are number one in the NFL in rushing success rate. The Seahawks are 24th. and so there is that level of consistency with something the Colts can just always tap into

that the Seahawks don't really have right now. And so the Seahawks being able to, I think the see, here's the way that I would put it. I think the Seahawks success on offense has been in a much more specific way than the Colts success has been on offense. And so I think it's maybe a little bit harder to maintain that over the course of the year, even if I think that the construction of the offense and the ideas behind it, I really do like what they're doing. but I think the scope of it has been a little bit narrower than the Colts has. This term has become like perjurative and it sucks, but like Daniel Jones is just driving the hell out of a bus right now.

He's just doing a fantastic job, making all the stops, getting there on time, very efficient. And Sam Darnold just sort of, like he is more of the Seahawks offense. So I think I just, I trust that the Colts aren't going to take a dip. And I'm like, what the hell happened? What's going on here? Whereas not to say the Seahawks can't do it, but I just, I trust it at least slightly less. I think the other side of that argument, I don't even know if I believe this, but it's worth bringing up.

If the Seahawks quarterback is playing better, maybe that gives them more staying power than the Colts do, even if they're asking less of the quarterback. And the Seahawks have a much better defense. That is a piece of this that you can ignore. We're nitpicking here and we're getting a little bit granular into the details. The Colts and the Seahawks are both definitively in this second team. We view them as definite playoff teams, both of them. Okay, so that's three each, Colts Seahawks, Bucks, and the playoff team's tier.

You said you had five. Who are your next two? Because I have six. Speaking of yucky, I have the Pittsburgh Steelers here. So this is the hardest one for me. I do not have them in this tier. I have the Pittsburgh Steelers in this tier, and I have the Denver Broncos too. Okay.

Denver, it's basically just I'm willing to hang my hat on that defense. And that is pretty much it. Like I, you know, the things, the things that kept me from wanting to put Denver at the table in our at the table conversation are there. It's kind of the team you might have expected them to be coming into the year for better or for worse. Yeah. Right. Like their limitations are being realized, but they're still good at a lot of the things we expected them to be good at. The running game has been better than it was last year.

And so I think that is part of it. And I think the offensive line and just the run game construction overall, I do like what they've done over the last couple weeks. But other than that, I think the Broncos are kind of a team we expected them to be both good and bad. Which is a good team for the record. I picked them to make the playoffs. I picked them to make the playoffs here. I thought of the Broncos as a playoff team that I wasn't ready to take seriously as anything more than that. And that's still how I feel about them.

I think the Broncos, the Bucks, the Chargers, all of these teams who were just outside of the table when we did that initial conversation, I think that the Bucs are closer to the positive end of those outcomes. and I think the Broncos are closer and the Chargers both to the negative end of those outcomes. I agree. And then the Steelers, I'll be honest, it's kind of by default. I mean, they're. So this is why. It would be an embarrassment for the ages if they can't get this across the finish line. So this is why, truly, why I said it was wild card caliber and not wild card teams.

Ah. That's why I framed it that way because I have the Steelers in the wild card caliber. See, this sounds like Derek where like it's all very honorable. for Derek where he's like, well, I can't call the Steelers a definitive playoff team because they don't look like one. And I'm like, well, they play in a division and if you win the division, you make the playoffs. Like, that's how I see it. The reason that I wanted to put the Steelers one step down from all these other teams is

I think just in terms of, we have to bucket this in some fun way. But in terms of overall quality, right now, I am not sure the Steelers are on the same tier as all the other teams that we've talked about. And so that's why I had to put them one further down. And that's why I cheated with the caliber part of the Wild Card. I don't think they are either, but like I said, I mean, what? They're four and one. The closest team to them is Cincinnati who they can beat head-to-head.

They're going to get to play a home playoff game. I mean, that's the first goal that every team sets out when they meet for the first time in late April, win the division. And it looks like they're going to. So they're a playoff team. They are a playoff caliber team, no matter what we might want to say about them. I went back and I watched the Steelers offense against the Browns today, and I'll say this. I was actually impressed and excited by a lot of the things that I saw.

I feel like the plan that they have on that side of the ball right now with Aaron Rogers in this current version of Aaron Rogers. I actually think the vision over there is about as good as it can be to get the most out of the players that they have. I think that the run game is starting to really develop, I mean, some of the things that they did against the Browns last week, and then there were a few players where it's just like, we're a hair away from this being like a big chunk run. I think there's a lot of creativity there.

I think the offensive line is playing well, all those young guys playing together for really the first time. I think that some of Rogers' limitations in terms of how he wants to play the position, getting rid of the ball really quickly, like essentially non-play action throws. It's all quick game and shots. And they've combined that with enough play action in the offense

to kind of trick him into intermediate throws that it's all kind of coming together. And so I think the plan and what they're doing. If you run play action, the route will just be far enough downfield that it counts. And the other part of this is they're running a lot of boots. And one of the reasons that I think he isn't trying to access the intermediate part of the field is that he doesn't want to hang in the pocket at this stage in his career. Well, guess what?

If you get him out of the pocket, you don't need to worry about him not wanting to hang in there. And so all of those like intermediate chunks they hit against the Browns are all boots. or their really defined heavy play action. They hit Darnell right or Darnell Washington like the first drive of the game on like an insert corner rod for 20 yards. So I think all the elements of the Steelers offense, I'm actually pretty impressed by them.

I just think that they're always, you're going to run into some issues living in that box. Like when you get deeper into the season, I think that you're just going to have things that limit you on offense in ways that the best teams in the league aren't. And so even if I do think it looks better than I expected on offense, I'm still just a little bit worried about how far they can take it.

The Steelers four wins came against the Jets in week one. We've learned a lot about the Jets defense over the last six weeks. Sure have. They beat the Patriots who turned the ball over five times, including twice on the goal line, okay, in that game. And then they beat Carson Wentz, and then they beat Dylan Gabriel. I would like to see the Steelers win a football game against a non-backup quarterback or a team that is not negative four in the turnover

margin. That's it. I'm open to them doing it, but I would like to see it happen before I put them in a here above this one. Completely reasonable. And that plays to the point I was going to make too, which is that their pass rush has started to look like what you think of as a Steelers pass rush. Your man, Derek Harmon,

is coming on strong. And Nick Herbig's on a huge heater right now. He's made the highest of the thing not matter. Yeah. Right. So, but like you just said, not only is it Carson, Winston, Dylan Gabriel. I mean, the Vikings' offensive line Another very good point. Was nothing by the second half of that game.

And the Brown's office line is also very bad right now. So I want to see it against somebody else and I believe, yeah, after this bingles game, it's Packers, Colts, Chargers. So we will have a better idea of who they are, but it might not matter because somebody's got to win the AFC North. So those are your five teams. You're the Steelers as your 15. I did.

So I had two teams in this playoff tiers group that you did not. And I will say there are two teams that I were hesitant to put here and then one that I did late as I like looked at the tiers and I was like, does this feel right to me? Okay. One of them. I have the New England Patriots in this tier. You know what? Be bold.

Go for the gusto. I think the offense is just good. It is. I think the offense and the quarterback are just good. And so that is enough with the way that Drake May is playing and the way the offense overall feels for me to put them in this sort of tier. Like, I don't think this feels all that different than what Washington felt like last year when we decided to put them in the locked in playoff team's tier at this point in the season. Okay. Where you got a young quarterback playing really well.

I was hesitant on that last year and you were not. I just think that the offense for New England, like, I believe in what they're doing right now because I believe in the construction of it and I believe in how well the quarterback is playing. Okay, you can call this pedantic. You could call it practical, but this is the way I look at it because I have the Patriots as a wild card team. And it comes down to this. I agree with everything you just said. Are you willing to say on October 15th that they're going to take the division from the bills? But they don't have to be in this tier.

It's just locked in playoff teams. Oh, they're in your tier. Yes. Okay. I have them as a wild card for. virtue of the fact that if they don't win the division, that's what they are. Sure. I think that's fair.

When we did this last year, there were teams that even if they weren't going to win the division, Washington being a very good example, the Eagles still won the NFC East. But this is a, this is more so. But you're saying it's a step above doing tiebreaker math in late December. That's exactly what it is. I think the wild card caliber tier for me is more so learn the tiebreakers. You need to figure out you're going to be in the end of hunt graphic. We're going to have, you're going to have to have one or two,

things go your way in week 17 or week 18. Similar to Washington last year, I think New England might actually be one step up from that. And my last team that I put in here, and I completely understand if somebody would put them one step further down, I totally get it. Part of me

wanted to, I'm putting Washington in the playoff teams tier, not the wild card tier. I love the conviction and the boldness of these calls because it's easy to, and I know Drake May has been incredible, but like it's easy to back off of a team with a young quarterback. It's just, it's rational to do. And it's easy to back off the commanders

because they started three and three. But I actually, I like that one in particular because, I mean, the commanders are three and three in part because Jaden didn't play for two weeks. And so getting him back and I know they lost the game. I know they turned the ball over too many times, but he looked like Jaden to me against the Bears on Monday night. Like he looked, he looked just fine. So I don't think it's a bad bet at all to count on the commanders playing more consistently now that he's back and doing his thing. I believe in the offense. I just believe in the consistency of the offense. I felt like you saw that again on Monday night, right? They have a couple turnovers that do them in, but down to down, I think that there is a real consistency and reliability with

Washington's offense, and they still don't even have McCorn back. So I think that with Jayden, with McCorrent, I just feel really, really good about that unit kind of coming out on the other side of this. And when I compare it to a lot of the teams that I have in that next tier down, I just don't feel quite as good about the offenses in the wildcard caliber tier as I do about Washington or even New England at this point. And so I think that's why, as both of them were on the line, I was like, you know what?

I feel pretty good about this. Like, I feel pretty good about these offenses being good enough over the course of the season that these teams will make the playoffs in some fashion. I'm more willing to do this with Washington probably. Oh, interesting. I think I'm more willing to do it with New England. Maybe you're right. The NFC is just so loaded.

Actually, maybe I should be learning my lessons from last year because I was hesitant on the commanders because it's just, it's scary to back something that you haven't seen a lot of, you know? Like, it's scary to just be like, yes, these six games of Drake May, it's going to keep happening this way. They're going to be awesome. and it's going to be fine. But actually, no, that's a really good point too,

and we'll get to this later on, EFC sucks. Like there are so many bad teams in the AFC. And some of that isn't their fault. There are some big injuries playing a role in that. But there are a lot of cellar dwellers in the AFC. So I actually think that's a really good point. Like New England is primed to take advantage of that,

even if I'm a little leery of just trusting it completely. Yeah. So right now, right now as it currently stands the team that is in so I think the Broncos are probably the best possible comparison because I do think the Chiefs will end up probably winning the AFC West

so it's the Broncos are like the next team in that wild card conversation for the AFC after that we're looking at the Texans at two and three like the Patriots have like a leg up on pretty much every team that's not Denver in whatever that wild card chase looks like

the state of the AFC is a big boost for the the Pats, that's a, that's a really good point. Okay, so those are the playoff teams. I had six of them, you had five of them, you had the Steelers, I did not. So just getting this out of the way. Next tier down, tier three, wild card caliber teams.

I have the Steelers is one of those teams. Okay. And I have the Pats and the commanders in that tier. Perfect. Okay. So before we dig into that tier, let's take a quick break. All right, so we have, you have Steelers, Washington and the Pats. So those teams are off now. I have

teams we have not talked about. I have one, two, three, four, five other teams in this wild card caliber tier. How many teams did you have total other than the commanders and patriots? I once again had six total. That includes New England and Washington. Okay, so you had four others. I had four other teams. So I have one more than you do in tiers one through three combined.

Okay. So who's the team you feel most solid about like when I was doing this tier, I wrote them in immediately? It sucks. The two teams that I wrote in first. are here just because of injuries, really. Like they would be higher up the list if they had better luck to this point in the season.

And that's the Niners who, I really, I feel like my preseason call of the Niners winning 12 or 13 games would have been right on the money if they could have any sort of injury. Average injury luck whatsoever. Yeah. I mean, you lose Bosa,

you lose Warner. I don't know how you overcome that. Maybe they can. And then obviously there's no shortage of injuries on the offensive side either. So I just think this was a team that had the potential to win 11 plus games, and now it feels more like 9 and 8. Maybe you get to 10 and 7.

Ironically, how funny would it be if this beat to shit 49ers team is the one that wins Kyle Shanahan coach of the year? Like if they- 10-7 would require them to go 6 and 5 over the rest of the way. Like, that is doable. If they limp into the playoffs with just their third string at five different positions, Kyle Shanahan would probably say like, yeah, You know what? I'd rather have a super team, but winning coach of the year could be fun. I think them and the Chargers, both of them are four and two right now.

The Chargers were the other one where, I mean, just shit luck. I have both of those teams in this spot where they absolutely could be wildcard teams, even with how banged up they are because they've gotten off to these four and two starts, but it's hard to move them up any higher just because of what they're dealing with in the injury front. So I am excited, I'm guessing, based on the way this is playing out, that we feel the same way about this team, which is fun. You have the Jags here. How could you not?

I think the only argument would be not having the Jags in the locked-in playoff teams tier. Yeah. What stopped you from doing that? I don't trust them at all. I don't trust anything about them. And listen, I've said this before. Like, I am firmly pro-Jag.

I, like, I have predicted them to make the playoffs like three years running or something stupid like that. But it's just an adventure every week, man. even, I mean, it's, the picture perfect representation of the Jags is all the nonsense that happened in that Chiefs win. Like one of their best wins in recent memory, and it still was a nonstop thrill ride where you just were never convinced that they weren't going to trip over themselves and fall into a loss, even up until the moment it happened. I mean, the Bengals loss was wacky. Their offensive line got Trevor destroyed by the Seahawks the other day. Like, I just want to see them look

I just want to see them look trustworthy. Like even in their good moments, they do dumb shit. And they're just, I don't trust them. I don't trust that they're not going to hurt me. Remember, this was a team that was eight and three gunning for the AFC one seed two years ago, I think. And obviously Trevor getting her played a role in that,

but eight and three, two, not in the playoffs at all, I believe is what happened, right? Yeah, I think they're more just like, closer to the middle of the pack team on both sides of the ball. That's had a couple nice bounces, right? they've had a ton of turnover luck. Like I just think if you look at the locked in playoff teams, I feel better, and I think I framed this in the conversation,

I feel better about a lot of the offenses and also just individual units in the locked in playoff teams in a way that I just don't feel about the Jags on either side of the ball right now. Like the Broncos are the defensive version of that. I'm enjoying watching the Jags. I think they're doing some really interesting stuff. I actually think that Trevor, obviously the sacks are problematic from last week,

but he's under siege the entire game. The last two games, after going back and rewatching that Jack Seahawks game this morning, I actually, the last two games that Trevor has played have been my favorite games of his so far this season, even with all the sacks last week. I think that the play extension, some of the pocket movement that we saw from him on Sunday, like I'm encouraged by the direction that he seems to be going as he's getting more comfortable within the offense. And I do think, again, if we did this two months from now, they could be in the tier above this one. But right now, there's just a little bit too much volatility and just a little bit too much uncertainty.

Yeah, I don't know what you definitively say you hang your head on with the Jags right now. Yes, even though they've looked good at times. Yeah. I think it's easy to get excited about where they are compared to where they were a year ago when you're one of a new regime, all that kind of stuff. But I just, I'm not quite there yet. Brutin for you, though, Jags. All right, so you had the Jags in here.

Yes. You have one more team. I'm fascinated to see who this team is. This is, you got to guard against recency bias when you do stuff like this. but the last, one of the most recent football games I watched live, was Atlanta doing that to the bills. And I'm pretty bought in. I'll want up you.

I almost put them in the tier above this one. There you go. I love that. Yeah, no, I didn't. After I, like, sat back and, like, let's take a breath and come back to the list. I was like, that doesn't make sense. Yeah, they deserve to be in the wildcard tier, but there wasn't any hesitation about me putting Atlanta in this tier number three.

I can't put you in a definitive playoff team category with, the Carolina game on your resume. We have to remember more than what just happened this week. There are multiple games before and after. But I mean, I would say they've only played five games, right? Because they had it by week. So four of the five games and the last one was the just the weirdest result of the year, Carolina 30, Atlanta nothing.

I'll never understand it. But in every other game this season, I legitimately think Michael Pennix has looked good. You know, like he hasn't always lit the world on fire. He's not a finished product by any means. But like even in the less impressive games, like I thought he played well against Minnesota. Like going on the road and just making the throws that he needed to and moving the offense, even if they had to kick a lot of field goals, he's been good. He's been good. He, I mean, with one big exception, but he's showing.

And since that Panthers game, he's shown a willingness to like throw to the intermediate level of the field and make those, you know, make the whole shots that he needs to find the open man in the zone. Obviously, the running game for most of the season, with the exception being that weird opener against Tampa, like the running game has been there. And this defense is really coming on. I'm curious,

I just want to know if you can count on the defense to do that week over week. I don't know if you can count on them to do that, but I think that you can count on them to be pretty good right now. I just think that what they're doing on that side of the ball, and we'll talk more about this on the preview show this week because we are going to do Atlanta defense under the hood. But I think with Atlanta and Jacksonville specifically,

I think the offenses right now are probably similar in terms of where they're tiered out. I think they're like almost identical and like offensive DVOA, for example. I just think that Atlanta, with the run game that they've been able to rely on for multiple years, I just have faith in Atlanta, a little bit more faith in Atlanta's offense

figuring it out over the course of this season, I think, and the defense has just been really good. And so I think that's why I have them like a smidge ahead of like where the Jags would be in this category, but they're pretty similar to me. It's really funny, and we're going to get to this in a minute, but it's funny what a difference vibes make. Because last year, Atlanta was an 8-9 team,

and the vibes were horrendous because you gave all this money to Kirk Cousins, and you drafted a top 10 quarterback on top of that. It's confusing. Kirk isn't playing up to the level of his contract, and you're in the fight for a playoff spot, but the vibes are horrendous. And right now, I'm like, yeah, this is like a 9-and-8 team,

but the vibes are great. Like the young guys are playing well. Pennix looks like he could be a dude. Like the vibes around the Falcons are nice right now. All right. So we are in agreement about Jacksonville and Atlanta being in this tier. I have one more team that I threw in here just because I didn't know what else to do with them. Okay.

I think I know who you're going to say. I'm putting the Vikings here. Yeah, okay. I like, I understand why you wouldn't. But I think that over time the defense will be good enough. And I think that, you know, when McCarthy gets back and hopefully the offensive wine gets a little bit healthier. I still have, I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt on that side of the ball with what they've done over the last couple years to the point where

they'll get back to an acceptable level over the course of the season. And it's not like they're one and four, they're three and two. Like they're within striking distance of being a wildcard team anyway. And so they're the one that's definitely closest to tier four here for me. But I bump them up just a tiny bit based on, again, the belief I think they've earned over the last couple years. Can I ask you a question? What? Is it, is it just a, just their consistency in their program and Kevin O'Connell that gives you the confidence they'll get back to that level? Yes. Because, like, what, I mean, what if J.J. McCarthy comes back and we're just on that right again?

That absolutely might happen. Or, I mean, what if Carson Wins keeps playing? And, like, obviously they've won with Carson Wince as their quarterback. But what if the Carson Wince that we have come to know over the last few years is ultimately shows his face? and like what if that's just not a formula for sustained success? Here's why I put them here and not in the other categories that we have below this. One, I don't think they fit a lot of the other categories that we have below this. Let's just talk about the Vikings.

They don't fit any of these. No. They don't fit a single category. That's why when we teared it all out, I was kind of like, you know what? I'm throwing up my hands. Like I think there's still a wild card caliber team, even though I don't feel as good about them as I do about any of the other teams I'm going to put in this category. Okay.

I wish I had a better explanation But that's why it ended up happening that way The Vikings were my poster boy Like when I told fans not to get mad at me At the beginning of the show I just I don't know what to do with them I don't know where to put them And they've only played five games

They had a biweek two So you have even less data to go off of Than you do with other teams I'm clueless on Minnesota I don't know what to do Yeah I In two of the last three years They've made the playoffs

And so it's just like The idea of them If it's on the line being like Yeah they're a wild car caliber teams. That wasn't that hard for me. This comes back to the same argument we had whether or not to put him at the table, though. Like, they're not a wildcard team if J.J. McCarthy plays the way that he's played for like seven of his eight quarters as a pro. That is probably correct. I will say, Christian Derisaw is back now even though Brian O'Neill was hurt. So I do think that

I have some faith in there being a better version of the Vikings offense than what we have seen over the first six weeks of the season. That's what I'll say. Maybe that's unfound, but I do. it's all unfounded. That's what's so perplexing about them is only five games. The presumed starter only played two of them. And so we're just in this holding pattern. And they've also been beat up. They were beat up before JJ got hurt.

Darisaw came back and they're beat up in other spots now. So I don't know what to do with them. You could say anything about the Vikings. And I'd be like, yeah, I guess we'll see. All right. Let's get to tier four here. This is the one that split into two tiers. So we essentially have a tier four good vibes and a tier four bad vibes.

I don't think these teams are necessarily better or worse than one another. Like if you were to stack the good vibes and the bad vibes on top of each other, you could do it either way. But they're too different in how they feel right now to not draw some line between them in this exercise. Okay. So my like little AKAs that I had for these two tiers were tier four badish teams, goodish vibes and tier four, we were supposed to be better than this. That's how I kind of in my mind were splitting them up.

So let's do tier four good vibes first. So that is my badish team's goodish vibes. I had three of those. I also have three. Are they the Bears, Panthers, and Giants? They sure are. Yes. So those are the exact teams I had because I can't put the bears and the giants in a tier with

the Ravens right now. Like that doesn't make sense. Robert. So I couldn't do it. So we had to do something to split them up. You're a lifelong Bears fan. Unfortunately, yes, that's correct. You know as well as I do.

They've won three games in a row. Bears fans are going to take it as an active hostility that you don't have them higher up the list. They got severely outplayed by the Raiders like 16 days ago. See, this is why you're in the big chair because you can keep perspective. I'm just saying. I think people, I think too many people,

and I'm probably reading too much into what people are saying about the things that I'm saying, but just I want to put this out there. I think people are looking at, at my reaction to the Washington game and being like, oh, you know, I think that, you know, Caleb didn't play as well as he has in some other stretches and the offense felt unsettled in moments as me reacting to that win the same way I did to the Raiders win, not correct. They got outplayed down to down by the Las Vegas Raiders and got very lucky to win that game

because they had a bunch of turnovers. That was not what happened against Washington. They were right there in that game throughout the entire game against Washington. Washington ultimately fumbles the game away, but the Bears had like three or four self-inflicted and ref-inflicted mistakes that swing that game back the other way. Down to down, the game that the Bears just had against Washington is probably, in my opinion, the best performance they've had all season. They had explosive plays against the Cowboys, but being able to rely on the run game,

all of that, I am feeling much better about where the Bears are coming out of the buy than I did after that Raiders game. I just think that there are enough question marks still remaining, notably about the defense, that I'm not ready to say that they're a wildcard caliber team. This is going to sound ironic because they're on a three-game win streak, but I just, I don't think the Bears have learned how to win yet. And obviously, like, they've won games, but they make, they don't, they haven't learned how to play winning football and, like, avoid game losing mistakes.

I think they have not learned how to get out of their own way. Yes, that's what I mean. I will say this. I think the game against Washington, those get out of our own way sort of moments, again, some of that was penalty and referee inflicted get out of our own way moments. that game we're not good. That's completely fair. But we've seen it in more than just that game as well.

The Raiders game was exactly this. But that's why I feel better about them now than I hit after that Raiders game because I think they actually played well on Monday night. No, they did. Or in a monsoon, they made less mistakes and less costly mistakes. The run game looked in Washington. And yeah, no, that is absolutely true. And I think the schedule lets up a little bit for the Bears.

I was joking with y'all in the studio on, what was it, Monday, I guess, where like a large Bears winning streak could be on the table. Absolutely. Like if you look at their upcoming schedule and it'll depend on a few things. I just was very forceful on me and you agree with that there.

You would think is a better or more accurate response for me. The mark of a lifelong Bears fan right there. I want to see more. I want to see more as well. But the whole point of this is the vibes are good. No, the vibes are great. It's year one of a new coach. Bro.

The offense makes sense. The quarterback is trending in the right direction. Like even if you have some concerns about this, team, things are absolutely trending in the correct way. And I'm really, I'm not interested in having an opinion on this, but like Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams are both kind of taking shots at Troy Aikman for the way that they perceived his commentary on Monday night. And like at the very, at the very minimum, don't you think that resonates with Bears fans

and just gets people excited? I like that circle in the wagons a little bit. Like, don't talk shit about our team. I'm enjoying the fact that Ben is showing some like real personality. and some real fire. And I do think that that's bleeding into this. And I always thought this was going to look uneven at the beginning based on how much they were trying to download on offense and training camp,

how little time they spent kind of honing in on what they'd be good at. That's why I said on Monday, I thought the buy came at the right moment for them to kind of take a step back and be like, okay, let's reevaluate what we need to do. They tweak the offensive line. I think that I feel good about where this is right now, but I need to see more of it. Again, we're 16 days removed from the Raiders game.

We're 16 days away from that game. I know they won. The Raiders are in the mock draft enthusiast tier emphatically. They got outplayed by the Raiders a lot. I think both of these things are true. I think, and remember how this season started. I know you do because you were there. To dig out of that hole out of those two losses at O&2

and to be here right now, the vibes are unquestionably good. The bears are unquestionably trending in the right direction. I'd still feel pretty comfortable betting money that they're going to lose a really stupid game here over the next month. Like that's just how it goes with young team, young flawed teams. I want to say this about the Raider game. And I think the same thing about the Washington game.

The fact that they haven't folded in these moments, I think is very telling. Because I think there are previous versions of this Bears team that would have folded in those moments. So even if down to down, I thought the Raiders game was pretty ugly, it was nice to see them bounce back when the game was actually still in the balance. And so there are elements of this that I am pretty excited about. And that's why they're in the badish team's goodish vibe section here for me. If all they're doing, and we'll see, maybe, maybe we're dead wrong and they just go on a tear. But like if all they do at the end of the year is you're doing tiebreaker math and just saying like, okay, like if we win two of these next three and the Vikings lose and the commanders drop one, then we're in, baby. We're in the seven spot.

Like what a place that is to be for the Chicago Bears. That would be so cool. Are you a 500-ish team that is in the wild card mix by the end of the year? and do you have a top half of the league offense that you feel very good about moving forward, the coach's quarterback combination. That's it. That was always it.

And we are still trending in that direction, which is why the vibes are good. Next two teams here. The Giants, I think, definitively badish teams, goodish vibes based on the way the last couple weeks go on. Unbelievable vibes. Like, the Giants still aren't good, but the vibes are very good.

Scataboo and Dart could, like, power the tri-state area with just their aura, I think. This is also one of those things. I understand there's probably Giants fans that are like, why aren't they in the next year? Why are they a baddish team? The same way the bears are 16 days removed from the Raiders game. The Saints or the Giants are 16 days removed from losing to the Saints.

Like that did happen. Yes, yes, you did. Yeah, no, I think it's very comparable. But again, like, again, with where things have been for New York Giant football over the last decade, you'll take this all day. And we talked about it because you picked them in your Winspool. And part of the appeal of them as a Winspool team was, if Jackson Dart gets in there and shows you a little something,

this is automatically a super exciting, super intriguing team, and that is exactly what is happening. And the front. Yeah. Well, it gives the front a chance to play meaningful football, basically. Those are the two things. That was why I picked them. So I think Giants, easy one for me here.

And this one, I will say, the Panthers could have gone either way after the first like three-ish weeks of the season. Then they, well, the first couple weeks of the season. And then they beat up on the Falcons. and I just, I really like what I've seen from the offense over the last few weeks. I think the running game and just what they've been able to do on the ground and the way they're playing with some backups along the offensive line, like I feel about the Panthers right now,

how I hoped I would feel about the Panthers coming into the season. And that's so nice considering how fleeting and how just out of reach that felt over the first couple weeks. It is super nice. And as somebody who's also invested in the Panthers, like I'm excited about it. I just wish they didn't have to get knocked to the mat before they could climb back up. You know, like they are the epitome of it's so over, we're so back.

Like it's got to go into the depths of hell before they can climb out of it. But yeah, I mean, they've been incredibly fun. The running game is awesome. The defense's leaps and bounds better than it was last year, even if it's not great. Yes, it's been fun watching them the last two weeks. All right.

So that's badish teams, goodish vibes, tier four good vibes. We have a lot of names for these. Tier 4 bad vibes. My, A.K., we were supposed to be better than this. I have five teams here. I assume you have similar teams. I have five teams.

You have five teams. Yes. Are those teams the Ravens, Bengals, Cardinals, Cowboys, and Texans? No. Ooh, okay. So did you have the Bengals in the last tier? Yeah. Okay.

There's a reason I didn't do that. And again, it's just because for me, putting a team with Bengals, preseason hopes in the same category as the titoes. Eatans felt weird. I mean, they probably deserve to be there. That's what happens when your franchise quarterback goes out. And every other,

and you learn how rotten a lot of the other parts of the team are. It's a shitty place to be, but I have the Bengals in the mock draft enthusiast category. That's totally fair. If that's harsh, I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. I think part of this is that at one point,

I had the Ravens and the Bengals and their own separatier calling it Sim to end. See, okay, I wanted to talk about this, though, but I have the Ravens firmly and we were supposed to be ready. better than this and I'm not giving up and I just I want to I need a place to state for the record

that I think and I know what the record is I do I think we're shoveling dirt on the Ravens a little bit prematurely if and I am operating under the assumption that Lamar Jackson will be back hopefully after the by week or at least pretty quickly after the buy week

but I just I don't think I can't do this so okay no I'm gonna do it I'm not saying you're wrong. I just like, can they win a game before we start having this conversation? When Lamar Jackson was healthy, they lost a classic to the bills in a collapse of all collapses. I mean, they did that, but still, you lose to the bills at the gun. You lose to the chiefs and you lose to the lions. So three teams that are in our Super Bowl or Bus category beat them.

One of them was by the skin of their teeth and one of it, granted, the lions ran all over them, but it was a game up until the fourth quarter. I don't, which game would you say was the skin of their teeth? The Bills. Oh, yes, that one correct. The Lions and the Chiefs, I thought the Lions and the Chiefs

outplayed the Ravens definitively. Fair. I would argue that at least the Lions game was like in doubt up until Henry fumbled late. Yes, it was in doubt, but I think the Lions were kind of unquestionably

the better team in that game. My point is still that with Lamar Jackson, this team was in, was in two out of three games against the class of the NFL. And if Lamar Jackson is back, it just, it doesn't, it doesn't sit well with me that we all think so highly of Lamar Jackson.

He's won two MVPs. He had a chance at a third. And we're not giving this guy the benefit of the doubt that he could lead them on some crazy run if he comes back and he's fully healthy, because I think that's firmly on the table. I'm willing to entertain this. I would like to see them win a football game

before I begin this conversation. Can he be back? first. He's got to be part of the team. I'm willing to indulge you on this. I just want to see them win a game before we start doing the math on what sort of run they could go on. I'm not saying it's off the table. I just say I want to see it happen first. They are on their by week. That's why I'm not removing them from the table, by the way. They are on their by week. Again, this hinges pretty heavily on Lamar being available after the by week. But you get Roquan Smith back at some point as well. After the by week, Robert. Bears. It's like fan fiction. Bears, dolphins.

Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals. You're telling me? I mean, the Ravens win. They're going to lose to the Bears. Fair, fine. I mean, obviously, the Bears aren't losing again. We know that. It's all winnable for them up until you get, like, I mean, the Steelers and the Packers and the Patriots are at the end of the schedule.

But, like, it was really hard in the beginning. It looks very manageable, provided one of the best three players in the NFL is healthy and available. So that is a huge. point of this. I'm not trying to diminish this. I'm just saying I want to wait like two weeks before we start it. That's it. No, I just want to wait two weeks before we like sim to the end of the Ravens season.

All I'm saying is I don't think their season is over yet. And I need to see them lose like at least two more games before I rule out the possibility that they could do this. All right. So who else did you have in the bad vibes we were supposed to be better than this category if you do not have the Bengals? I have the Texans. I have the Cardinals.

I have the Cowboys. boys. Don't yell at me. This is where I put Minnesota. I think that's totally fair. I think this is where I put Minnesota because again, this was a team that we said didn't belong at the table and a lot of people got mad at us for saying that because those were the expectations and that was the thing with this Vikings team is that they're so good that J.J. McCarthy can step in and they won't miss a beat. I know he got hurt but he didn't look like he was ready for that in the first two weeks of the season. Here's why

I'm not putting Minnesota in this And I think it's totally fair to do that And even if you did it under the banner If we were supposed to be better than this The Vikings were supposed to be better than this I think with the other teams that we're seeing here The Bengals and Ravens are obviously kind of Off to the side here because the quarterbacks are hurt

But with the Cowboys, the Cardinals and the Texans We've kind of seen what they are Right like the Vikings I still think We're waiting to find out what they are And that's why I wasn't as definitive about putting them in here I've said it a few times at this point but I had no clue what to do with the Vikings. I stuck them here because I was hoping to see more from them.

Some of that's not their fault and doesn't mean that they'll stay this way. Every year, I said this about the Colts last year, and I felt this way about the Falcons really up until they beat the bills. But like some teams can get, you can get five or six weeks into the season and you're just like, who the hell are these guys? I have no clue. And that's who the Vikings are this year. The three teams that for me are in the we're supposed to be better than this category,

Arizona talked about this a lot. This is a team that spent a lot this offseason. You're three of a regime. Let's push to be a playoff team. That just hasn't happened, right? The offenses kind of stumbled a little bit and sputtered a little bit. They're boring. They're boring.

They're kind of boring. And I think that they're competent, right? They're not a bad team. Yes, they're not a bad team. But they're just like, you're supposed to be better in this. This is like, I'm a little bit disappointed in this. The Texans exact same thing. I think the Texans could make a push to be a wildcar caliber team.

by the end of the year. Agreed. I think that the defense is good. We know the defense is good. The offenses look better over the last couple weeks. Similar with the Texans to me, same conversation as similar conversation to what we had about the Steelers.

I want to see the Texans do this against a team that is not the XFL Ravens and the team that just fired its head coach six weeks into the season. Is that okay? Yes. And before I like, shutting out the Titans

and beating the Cooper Rush Ravens didn't move you? I kind of want to see that before. I'm like willing to do this with the Texans. I debated moving. I debated. putting the Texans in my wild card tier, but it's not enough. I'm not there. I think they could get there, but I think, again, the hope was the offense would be better,

and the offense has spluttered for the most part. And I, again, I want to see, I think that they can't, I like what this, some of the stuff they're doing offensively. I do think that there's light at the end of the tunnel potentially. I'm just not there yet. I need to see it against other teams. Cowboys, I think you can make an argument that the vibes are not that bad in Dallas because the offense is fun.

Brian Schott-Dimer think is doing a decent job, and DAC is playing at a really level. Here's why I think that means the vibe should be bad. You're going to waste this season from Dak Prescott? The idea that your bet on offense with Brian Schottenheimer and Clayton Adams worked. The trade for George Pickens worked. You were in a position where you're going to potentially have one of the best offenses in the league. You should be a playoff team. You should be a contender and you aren't because the defense is not functional. That to me is bad vibes. You should be better than this with Dak Prescott playing like this. That's why they belong here for me.

Here's the funny thing with the Cowboys. It's a funny dichotomy. I think the vibes in the building are good. The vibes with the fan base are horrendous. Okay, that's good to know. I'm glad I'm not totally off base there. Cowboy fans are, and it's a huge fan base. You can't paint everybody with one.

It's not a monolith, yes. You can't paint everybody with the same brush. But by and large, Cowboy fans are furious that, yes, it looks like you're going to waste an amazing Dak Prescott season. It looks like you're not going to make the playoffs or at the very least you're going to have to be perfect every damn week. I mean, to get that performance against Carolina and by the way a flawed Carolina team

and not even have a shot to win it at the end, it says everything about where they are because Carolina just held the ball for the second half of the fourth quarter. It's unbelievable. No, I think cowboy fans are furious. I think in the Cowboys building, I think, I think they're good with the Micah Parsons trade.

I think the fan base is going to take a hell of a lot longer to let go of that. And like even if Micah is not perfect and if you want to critique him as a player, whatever, their defense would be better if he was on the field. Like they would have a shot to make the playoffs if Micah Parsons was on this team. And I think fans are going to have a hard time letting go with that, at least a lot of them. That's good to know. Because that's not surprising at all because I think that they are better in some areas than people expected them to be coming into the year.

I think they've made good on the bet with the offensive staff in a very impressive way. But the fact that the defense is as bad as it is, and I don't have a lot of faith in them turning it around. I just think they should be better than this, and that's why they fit this category. They're the 2024 Bengals. Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's exactly what they feel like right now.

And the Bengals last year should have been better than this with the quarterback playing that way. Mock draft enthusiasts, Tier 5, don't think we have to spend a lot of time on this. You had the Bengals here. I did not for semantic reasons. the other ones in here, Titans, Raiders, Saints, Browns, Jets, dolphins. Those are the ones.

I don't think we have to spend a lot of time explaining why that's the case. I don't think we do. I just, when I made that list, I noted, and I said this during the show, everybody that you just listed off except for the Saints is an AFC team. Seven of the, in the draft order right now,

seven of the top eight picks would go to AFC teams. It's crazy. So that's, and again, Like if you're a Patriots fan or a Jags fan or an AFC West fan who's not a Chiefs fan, then like that, I mean, that's great news for you because I think the AFC in terms of playoff teams is going to be really watered down by how many just bad football teams are on that side of the league. Which one of these do you feel worst about?

Oof. All right. I'm looking at my list. Can I just, I feel the best about the Saints probably, which I don't think. No, no, no, no. I mean the all 32 teams. Oh, which. I thought you meant, which garbage team do I like the mobile?

I'm not going to put you in that spot. Of the tiers, of the team, of the 32 teams and the tier that you put them in, which one do you feel shakiest about right now? It might be a cop out. I feel the Vikings. I feel like the Vikings are just a big incomplete. I don't have, I don't feel like I have enough information to confidently put them somewhere. So I felt self-conscious about that from the jump. I would also...

I will say you made me feel self-conscious about the bucks because, like, I believe in them firmly, but I didn't have the guts to put them another tier higher. So that's something that I'm going to have to investigate. I feel pretty good about everything else. And the commanders, I mean, it's been a... I see that's, I feel the same way, but for the other reason. I think I might have been a little bit too, a little too quick to put them in that tier. I feel like that's, might be a little hasty.

it might be but I don't And again like it's hard to fight recency bias but It's funny I meant to say that on the stream After the Monday night game But like

For a game where they turned the ball over three times And like he threw a red zone pick And obviously was part of the fumble That helped decide the game But I just thought Jaden looked awesome Against the Bears So funny I like I said on we said on the stream

I was just like you know He has composure in the pocket And there's like a certain level of control That he plays with and people are like We threw an interception And fumbled away the game Well yeah That was two plays in 70 plays.

And also the fumble was not him existing in the pocket. Like, those plays happen. I'm not going to shit on Caleb Williams for the bobbled snap that ends up torpedoing that drive. That has nothing to do with like the mechanics of playing quarterback. You're going to throw an interception here and there. If you look at the dropbacks that Jaden Daniels have in that game, 35? If you look at 34 of the 35 dropbacks, there is a certain feel to the way that he plays the position. like we're not going to let the one interception dictate what jaden Daniels is play after play down after down as a quarterback he still feels a certain way that one play doesn't take away from that that one play impacts the result of that one particular game but it does not say anything about the long term feel of who jaden Daniels is as a player i will say this and i don't want to get too deep into it because it's part of our week seven preview show but the stretch coming up for the commanders is is big and

We could be, I mean, we could be talking about Jaden as like an MVP candidate by the time we get to November. Or we could be saying, oh, yeah, the commanders were due for a regression, weren't they? Like, I mean, it's some real heavy hitters coming up like four or five weeks in a row. I think that's worth mentioning because I probably don't look at the upcoming schedule enough when we're having conversations like this. It's more about like how good do I think the team is. And for Washington specifically, that loss to the Bears and that on a coin flip game where you're three and three instead of four and two. when five of your, four of your next six games are against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Lions, and Broncos,

just by virtue of the standings and some of the win-loss luck, they may not be a playoff team, right? And I think, but just for me, mostly this was looking at it. I was like, what does this team feel like? There's the quality of the team and how do I tier them out. So that's, again, semantics and kind of how we're drawing the lines, but I think what the next month and a half brings, they might not even have a chance to be fighting for a playoff team because they're too far behind.

Or we could be talking about them as the class of the NFL. Maybe you never know. All right. That is all we've got for today. Sincerely appreciate all of you guys listening. If you're watching this on YouTube, encourage you to like and subscribe. It's been really fun year on YouTube on the Athletic Football Show here.

We're doing all of our Monday night and Thursday night recaps on YouTube. So if you're interested in those, that's where you can find them. We're doing a lot of YouTube specific stuff this year. I have a new video series. We're trying to do weekly called Did You Notice, which is just something about the NFL that's been a trend or story and digging a little bit deeper into it. The first one we did was about the Seahawks offense.

Just why does it feel so much different for Seattle on offense this year than it did last year? Derek's been doing plenty of great stuff. He has a video about Baker Mayfield and just some of the ways that the bucks are pushing the ball downfield. So please check out Derek's stuff that he's doing right now. I'm going to be doing plenty more. Really excited about what is to come on the YouTube channel this year.

So now is the time to like and subscribe. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.