The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Ten players who will help you win your fantasy league, with Josh Norris and Hayden Winks

Episode Date: July 7, 2023

Midsummer is the time of swimming pools, cookouts, vacations...and fantasy football prep! Robert Mays welcomes Josh Norris and Hayden Winks from Underdog Fantasy to this episode of The Athletic Football Show to help you start getting ready for your fantasy leagues. The guys run through the first 10 rounds of a typical draft, highlighting one player in each round who can help you claim your league's trophy this season.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Josh on Twitter: @JoshNorrisFollow Hayden on Twitter: @HaydenWinksSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It is July. It is early July. I recently, a couple weeks ago, got back from my honeymoon, I'm settling into the football offseason a little bit later than I would have in a typical year. And part of that process, for me at least, is jump-starting fantasy prep.

Really starting to dig into it here as we get toward training camp, starting to think about who are my? guys, who do I like? What's my strategy going to look like? So I wanted to start that on this show. Figured this was the right time to kick off our fantasy discussions. I know Nate did a little bit of it, but I want some for myself because I need to steal some of this information as I start thinking about what my teams are going to look like. So here to help me with that today, two guys that do a fantastic job in a fantasy space and people whose work I deeply, deeply respect from underdog fantasy. It is Josh Norris and Hayden Winks. Josh, me and you are on like the

same timeline right now. Just in life in general. Congratulations to both of us for lasting one year or one month. I should say, and I even one year. One month in marriage, making it through the honeymoon. And I think no matter what happens, it is a small miracle that two people who create football content were able to find partners and lock them down for life. That's what we've done. The most important part is that she doesn't give a shit about football content or what I do for a living. So that's the most important thing and the most useful thing. Somebody who is, I mean, you got plenty of experience in this already. You've been married for like 20 years, even though I don't know, you're like 23 years old.

It's Hayden Winks. Hayden, thank you very much for doing this, buddy. Yeah, the key is to meet your girl in high school and never let her go. So she can't meet you because you're viewing a bunch of fantasy football nerd stuff. So yeah. Here's what we're going to do today. It's so hard to kind of drill down or figure out the scope of a fantasy show when you're not doing fantasy content every single day like you guys are.

There's so many different directions that we could go. So I figured we would just go as down the middle as possible. What we're going to talk about today is 10 guys who could help you win your fantasy league. And the way that we're going to structure this is we're going to pick one guy from each round over the first 10 rounds. So this is a, we're not going to do 10 guys you can pick in the first two rounds because that would be silly. So in theory, you could get every single one of these guys if your draft fell this way. So I'm thinking about early round strategy, but also what value might look like as we get a little bit later into these drafts. Now, just for my own notification, did you guys jointly come up with this list that we're going to go through?

Kind of. Kind of. All right. Okay. All right. It was just like a late night task that was on my docket. Came up with 10 names. Senator of the Hayden last night who is on the West Coast sent it back to me about 2 a.m. this morning.

But here we are with 10 names. And I think this is a really fun structured way of doing this because as I said to you, Robert, like fantasy football in some ways can be nuanced, player takes and stat looks. but at the same time, understanding like the scope and the projection of the offense is super important too. So it's both like a micro and macro lens at these players and at these teams. So let's start with the guy that you guys picked for the first round. And that is Cooper Cup, wide receiver from the Los Angeles Rams. I was a little bit surprised to see him as the flag planting in the first round when you consider all of the other talent available in this stretch of the draft. Josh, what led you guys to Cooper Cup as the first guy that you believe can be the foundation of a winning.

fantasy team this year. Yeah, for sure. And I'm going to kick this off as really super simple analysis. He led the NFL in points per game last season. I mean, he averaged 22.4 for the Rams. I mean, in 2021, he set an NFL record with 439.305 fantasy points. And last year, he was on pace for 380 points, which would have been, again, the wide receiver won overall. And we're able to get that at either the wide receiver 3 or 4 on Underdog Fantasy right now, the fourth or fifth or fifth, overall pick. And again, just to talk to about the absurdity of a season that we got two years ago, he had 18 red zone touchdowns. The next closest pass catcher was at 10, and he did that on 46 red zone target. So just the fact that, sure, it's after a season ending injury and we're at

the, what, age 30 season for Cooper Cup, just the ability that we have to start your draft with the guy who in the last two seasons when he has played has been the overall best player in Facey football, that's a huge win. Yeah, I think, first of all, I just wanted to let everyone know for context. We're going off the underdog best ball ADP, which, you know, is slightly different than what your home league might look like, but in the neighborhood enough where a lot of this stuff is actionable. So, Hayden, when I'm thinking about Cooper Cup, my first thought is just the stink of that

Rams offense last year by the end of last season, just because there are times where they were struggling to even function offensively, and he still was doing this game in and game out. So why Cooper Cup over somebody like a Stefan Diggs or an A. J. Brown or the other receivers that you could theoretically get in this range. So I think there's a big three for me in fantasy. Justin Jefferson, Jemar Chase, are safer because they're younger attached to good, stable offenses. Cooper Cup has more downside risk, but I think he has the best projection in all of fantasy.

Like Josh was saying, 153 catches on Pace for last year through the eight games. And those were on really bad Rams teams. Over those eight games, they were 29th in point differential. The offensive line was a total mess. But I think this year, what's the difference is. Cooper Cup and Matthew Stafford, or at least they're practicing, they certainly seem like they're going to be healthy.

There was some risk early on the off season that that was not going to be the case. And the defense is equally as bad as what the offense was last year. The way I'm putting this is Sean McVeigh is going to be playing Madden this year. You simulate the defense, you get back on offense, and you throw the ball in 2021 when Matthew Stafford was going crazy.

They were top five in pace and pass rate when they're trailing. I think this Rams seems either going to be trailing or a neutral situation, the time. And we've seen Sean McVeigh just go pedal to the medal. And I don't think that this offensive line and running back group is set up to run the ball. I think they're just going to want to get this ball out quickly. And I think that Cooper Cup has a chance to be the first player ever to catch 150 passes in the season. I think that's the upside we're talking about here. Josh, it's dangerous in fantasy and Alcerni NFL analysis to ever utter the phrase, it can't get worse.

Yeah. But when you think about the Rams offensive line last year, it's hard to imagine it getting worse. And that's before they spent some resources to upgrade this group. They spent a stuck-around stick, a pick on Steve Avila. They drafted Logan Bruston in the third round last year. Obviously, he was hurt along with everybody else. It just feels like their offensive line, performance and health and luck has to be better this year. And like Hayden alluded to, they can have the worst defense in the league. Right. That's not even that far off if you're trying to project it. So these could be a lot of 35 to 32 type games, even if this team overall is not going to be very good. Yeah. And Joe Noteboom, who was supposed to take

over for Andrew Whitworth for many years is also one of the players who got injured. And you talk about this all the time. Going from like league worst to league average is a massive step up and just can like raise the tide for the rest of the offense. And you know, you hear this all the time when you discuss fantasy football on selecting players on bad teams. Like, oh, I'll just bank on garbage time. And Hayden knows this.

I typically hate that narrative because in order to get to garbage time, your offense is probably not putting up points. And you have scored fewer touchdowns in your opponent. And touchdowns are pretty important for fantasy football. The Rams are a different case because as we have seen, when these guys play football, they put up points. And Sean McVeigh in his past has literally ran 15 straight passing plays or 20 straight passing plays when he is losing in these dynamics.

And as Hayden said, pedal to the floor in those environments, in those game scripts. And as long as we get 17 games of Cooper Cup, It's going to be, as Hayden alluded to, potentially a historic year, we're getting out of it. It's really important this time of year, and for fantasy especially, to kind of reframe narratives and reframe the vibes you had around certain players and certain teams at the end of last season. Like you kind of sticking me back in reality and reminded me that Cooper Cup led all receivers and fantasy points for game last year when he was on the field. That's what this time of year is for. It's like, I know how you felt about this group or this player by the end of the last season. let's pull you back in a little bit to what actually happened.

And that's why this is a perfect place for us to start. And to be honest, Robert, they tried to maybe take away some of that pressure on him after losing O'Dell Beckham with the Allen Robinson signing last offseason. We're not talking about that. And that didn't help. I mean, he was leading the league with a 33.2% share of his team's targets. And in this offseason, they have done nothing. It's Van Jefferson and Pukkah and maybe like what, DeMarcus Robinson, I think, on the

roster and that's it. So it is the Cooper Cup show and Matthew Stafford. And I'm just, again, not putting on a lab coat here and just banking on these guys playing 17 games or even 15. And we still got a league winner out of it. All right. Let's get to our second round guy here. You guys as your second round pick among the 10 guys that can help you win your fantasy league this year going 14th about overall in best ball ADP right now, just behind guys like Amman Raus, St. Brown, just ahead of guys like Garrett Wilson, Pouchman Holmes, J. J.1 and Waddle. Hayden, why Nick Chubb as the second round pick of choice as you're building a winning fantasy team this year? So last year here is the running back six. And I think with the NFL going away from the traditional bell cows, that's actually helping Nick Chubb. Peky as he hasn't been that bell cow. He's been losing reception work. So as other elite players don't get that as well. It just makes Nick Chub stand out. But I think this year, obviously, the upside has more, or the offense has way more upside than this Brown's offense has ever had with Sean Watson. But more importantly to me, there's the upside of just more.

more receptions in general because Kareem Hunt is gone. Last in 2019, when Kreme Hunt was suspended, Nick Chubb was on pace for 53 receptions, which isn't a lot, but that's a lot more than what we're used to with Nick Chubb. And quietly, Cream Hunt would mix in at the goal line a little bit more than you want. Oh, it wasn't quiet.

As somebody said Nick Chubb in a lot of the ASE teams, there was nothing quiet about it. Right. So I have this expected touchdowns model, and Cream Hunt was on pace for seven expected touchdowns last year. If you get seven more touchdowns for Nick Chubb, We're going to go from RB6, ups like RB2, and there's at least a chance for more upside just because Deshaun Watson,

in theory, has MVP level talent. Yeah, on that point, Robert, Nick Chubb had just 20 carries inside of the 10-yard line last season. That was 12th among all running backs. And to me, that's not an indication of him as an isolated talent. That's like an offensive success figure because arguably,

you've talked about this, the team was much better just week and week out, drive-in-drive-out, which could be set-up quarterback than they were with Deshaun Watson. I think we're all expecting Deshaun to play better this season. But it's interesting to come on a show like this and have to tell you this, Robert, and it might surprise you. But there have been like some Nick Trubb detractors for years in this fancy football bubble

because he doesn't catch passes. And so that makes him boring. But I'm here to tell those people that like he also led the NFL in 15 plus yard carries last season and literally the best ball carrier in the NFL. Well, we're talking about boring in terms of a. fantasy asset or boring in terms of a football player. How he scores points for people. Well, I also say, Josh, that a lot of the fantasy football analysts only look up

spreadsheets and don't, I've never watched Nick Chub play, which is in their judgment. Nick Chubb is like the least boring running back in the NFL. It has been for like five years. He is such a fascinating study in a conversation like this because it's just a discussion about all of the different pushes and pulls on where running back value comes from. And you guys have talked about all of it already. So theoretically, I think they will run the ball less than they did over the last couple years. I mean, when they were thinking about the construction of the offense in Cleveland last year,

the central question heading into the year was, Jacoby Percette is our quarterback. How are we going to win football games? And Nick Shub had 300 carries. He averaged 17 carries a game. It was the most he'd had in a season since 2019. They were going to throw the ball more this year because of what they can get out of Deshaun Watson. And also look at the way that their skill position talent is constructed compared to what it's been in years past.

You have Elijah Moore there now, Amari Cooper in year two. They like the tight ends. Jordan Aiken's is a nice player that I think is going to do some stuff for them. They've got the best past catching group they've had by far. And that's before you get to the talent of the quarterback compared to what Baker Mayfield was in theory. But if the offense is better and they're scoring more touchdowns and they're throwing the ball more while Nick Chubb is on the field more because Cream Hut isn't there, then that down tick in rushing volume isn't going to matter. So it's hard to figure out where all the dials are on a guy like this. but I think in the aggregate,

I come out being very excited about what his fantasy upside looks like. This is the closest Nick Chubb has ever been to being the only running back of relevance on his roster. You know, and so did Michelle in college he paired with. Then it was Carlos Hyde once he got to the NFL. Then Kareem Hunt, who by the way, I think is leaving 173 opportunities on the table.

And Robert, by how that team builds a roster, I think in the last few years, they've probably spent more assets on the running back position. they probably wanted to. And so that's also why I am drafting a ton of Jerome Ford towards the end of drafts as well as running back 50. Now, he's purely a handcuffed potentially. Maybe he gets about six or seven opportunities per game. But it's not like Nick Chubb's going to get 80% of the workload. And so I'm just really investing in both the players in this backfield because I just think the

Browns are going to take a huge step forward to. So in ADP, according to Underdog Hayden, Nick Chubb is running back four right now. He's going ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Saquan Barkley, Tony Pollard. I know that you are not huge on Jonathan Taylor this year because of some of the factors within that offense that affect running back value, even if rushing efficiency is there. But if you had a choice of Nick Chub or Saquan Barclay in one draft, how would you kind of negotiate that? Yeah, I think I'm barely on Nick Chub over Saquan, but I'm for sure above on Jonathan Taylor because for all the reasons we're talking about scoring more touchdowns in the Browns offense. The Colts offense, they're not going to be scoring that many touchdowns of rookie quarterback who's fairly inexperienced. but more importantly, they're not going to throw the ball to the running backs ever. Like, just that's not going to be Anthony Richardson's style.

That's what his weakness was on tape. And that's just what we've seen like Jalen Hertz, Justin Fields. Those type of Lamar Jackson, those running backs, I'd always think they are barely overrated because receptions matter so much and the goal line matters so much. I think that Anthony Richardson is going to get under center at the goal line and sneak it in himself. That's how you use a Jalen Hertz, Anthony Richardson style quarterback, and it's the same exact offense. So I don't think there's going to be a Miles Sanders. season because the Colts are not going to be in the red zone as often as the Eagles were.

And we may be talking about AR a bit later. And Robert, I think part of naming Nick Chub here is because the underdog ADP is kind of like this living organism. And it changes like after the first week of May to this point. And it will change at the end of training camp too. I mean, it changes every single day. It is a really useful tool though. Exactly. Do not look at it is very indicative of kind of how things are changing and shifting within the fantasy world. You should look at it more often if you don't. And when best ball mania four opened, Nick Chubb was an end of round two selection. So like pick 21 overall, pick 22, and he's climbed about seven or six spots since then.

So he has jumped those two running backs that you talked about as well. So two guys that are going right there at the end of round two, I got that two, three turn, according to underdog ADP, are Sequin Barclay and Tony Pollard at running back six and seven. Hayden, in your mind, where is the tier drop at running back this year? because I think right now you'd rather have the running backs than some of these receivers available in this range because of the receivers that are coming later. But where in your mind does that shift a little bit? I like Echler, Chubb, and Sequin. I've seen them do it before.

It feels very solid right there. And then there's players I definitely like Brise Hall, Reminders, even Tony Pollard. But you're kind of extrapolating a little bit, which certainly is possible. Like all those players can be top three at the running back position. I just have seen it in years past with Chub and Seekwant. So I need a little bit of a tier break there. But the big point is, though wide receivers like the Chris Olavie types are being drafted over Tony Pollard. I love Chris Oliva.

I love Jalen Waddle. To me, it's just a little bit harder for those type of players to become first round type of fantasy assets versus somebody like Tony Pollard, who all we need is just get him the goal line carries and we're rocking and roll. It shows just how much fantasy football and specifically the wide receiver thirst on underdog has changed things. Robert, because now it's just three running backs being selected in the first round. Whereas I was shocked when I opened it and I saw that. I was shocked. Yeah, five years ago, 10 years ago, we'd have six, seven, eight, nine running backs going there. So Hayden, I love selecting wide receivers in round one and then double dipping in round two and around three with these running backs because it really feels like a sweet spot there.

Yeah. And I say I agree with that. And I understand that mindset. But then I look at some of these names. We could talk about. They're great. Their names run like running back like 10. 11 where it's like I might just take the swing here.

I might just be willing to take the swing. Let's talk about round three here. The player that you guys had in round three that you feel like could help you win your league this year is Calvin Ridley, who currently right now, as I look at the ADP, it's actually going a little bit lower than that. I think he's like 37 in underdog ADP, but you guys are probably anticipating that climbing maybe a little bit

as we get closer to the season. So somewhere in that three-four turn is probably where you'd have to get Calvin Ridley. Josh, why Calvin Ridley, what is appealing about him to you compared to some of the other guys in this range? Yeah, he's being selected as wide receiver 16 right now And you all talked about this during the season often, but it felt like there was this 12 yard ceiling put on the Jaguar's offense last year. I mean, Trevor was 18th in percentage of 20 plus yard passing attempts.

And now you bring in a player who led the NFL in 20 plus yard targets and receptions in 2020 during his NFL career when on the field has been one of the best vertical receivers in the entire game. I mean, I don't want to be hyperbolic here. but this to me is a potential offensive changing archetype that can really take up Jacksonville up a massive gear. And it's just what we saw with Doug Peterson last year in the second half of the season, utilizing all of these players that they, I'm not going to say filled holes with and overpaid for, but utilizing them in ways that they are successful in ways that they win. Evan Ingram is a perfect example of this, right? Like getting him on the move and motion, action, all that stuff.

And getting the ball in his hands and letting him run off the catch, to me, when you insert a talent like Calvin Ridley, along with the arm that is just waiting to be let loose in Trevor Lawrence's game and the progression that he's made now heading into year three, I just love that combination. And I am forgetting that, you know, Calvin really hasn't played football in quite some time. Well, that's the downside here, right? Totally. We haven't seen him play in a long time. But when you're looking at some of the other receivers available in this range, Keenan Allen, you know, guys like that, Jerry Judy. Debo Samuel, Mari Cooper. Amari Cooper would be the other guy that I would potentially say this about,

where you have a level of talent, a defined highest spot in the pecking order of your receiving core, and the quarterback play where it's like, this could just be an explosion. Like Amari Cooper could finish his wide receiver seven this year, and I don't think anyone could blink an eye. But I think you could say the same thing about Calvin Ridley, Hayden. All those factors lining up, there aren't that many players in this range where you can check every single one of those boxes, and Calvin Ridley is one of those. Yeah, the Jaguars were fourth.

in wide receiver fantasy usage because they are an aggressive offense. We love Doug Peterson, not just his game plan, but they're an aggressive team. And Trevor Lawrence wants to throw the ball downfield. But all the downside risk with Calvin Ridley, I think has been erased to some extent this off season. One, he had that letter, which was awesome, provided some clarity with that.

It's a contract season for him. He's playing for a Super Bowl contending team right now. And most importantly, he's out there practicing already. Like, you're not having to wonder when is you going to start practicing. We've seen him out there. he looks extremely explosive. All the beat reporters are loving him. They're saying how much he's standing out versus everybody else.

And we've seen big seasons from Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, already in this offense. Evan Ingram already in this offense. I think Calvin Ridley is a tier or two ahead of all those players. I think that he has the most upside. Robert, I try to take a step forward in these like mystery players a little bit, but you're not exactly sure what's going on in their situation. So I reached out as someone who covers the team. And they said that they've never seen a Jaguars wide receiver.

move like this in practice. And so as much of a narrative street as the sounds, like getting players when they haven't played football for quite some time for multiple factors and then them visibly caring and also heading into a contract year, I think we can include that in our process here for these picks. And like you said, it's a bunch of really good wide receivers in that territory. But I've been a Trevor Lawrence fan since day one. I've been a Doug Peterson fan of how he utilized lesser talents last year and just visualizing those two people. pieces together. And I would love for you to speak on, again, how this offense can use more blades of grass than they did last year. Because again, it felt so compact last season. They were still

successful. It absolutely did. And even the stuff that wasn't compact, the hyper specificity that you were talking about, about how those players were deployed, like Christian Kirk does something specifically very well. But that's what he does. Evan Ingram does something specifically very well, but that's what he does. Bring in someone who's like a true number one receiver to kind of allow everything else to fall more appropriately in line in terms of those roles and how they make sense in the aggregate of the offense, that's what they needed. And that's why going out and rolling the dice on a guy like this is probably one of the best moves that any team has made in the last calendar year. I don't know how it's going to work out, but I think the bet that they made

is worth doing 100 times out of 100. Yeah, totally with you. My question about another guy in this range that I wanted to ask you guys about just out of curiosity, Brees Hall is going as running back 11. Am I missing something? No. I think that this is one of the most mispriced players just because we saw what he did the last four games before he tore his ACL in October. He was already top five. This was on Christmas. It was October when he tore his ACL. Top five and he's out there. He seems like he's practicing. What I can see is the first month of the season doesn't have the 75% snap share. Maybe it's closer to 50%. But guess what? The least important time for fantasy football is also in September. You're trying to win championships decided later on the season. And also, we've seen

this offense wants to be very running back focused. And Breece Hall's special traits to me, he's out in space and he's got very soft hands. Aaron Rogers will use a screen game. He'll check it down to those guys all the time. And this coaching staff definitely wants to use this type of player. So miss me with any of like the, he's coming along slowly in September. I don't really care. He's going to be out there ready to go in October and beyond. And at that point in the season, I would not be surprised if he's top five back. Josh, he was arguably, like you look at it per touch, mistackles, forest yards after contact, per touch, like PFF elusiveness, all of those things.

On a per touch basis, he might have been the most explosive back in the league last year. He's in his second season, even coming off the ACL, I just don't see enough barriers to the upside here to be dissuaded from taking him in this range every single time. And this is exactly how they said it would happen when they selected him, where, and you hear this a lot when going back and watching these post draft press conferences of, man, 10, 11, 12 play drives are so difficult. Now we need to have players that can turn it into four, five, six play drives. And Bruce Hall is the perfect example of that. Because if he gets the edge or an alley, he's off the races. And Robert, you know this when the season kind of gets cloudy when you're

trying to watch every single game, every single week. And so like taking some time during the off season and going back and just reviewing some these offenses or some individual players, it gives you more clarity. And when I went back and watched Brees Hall in the receiving game, and sure, it was with a different play caller and they used maybe pony personnel better than anyone else in the league, but just visualizing him, having that Aaron Jones like receiving ability next to Aaron Rogers and an offense that he will probably carry over from what we've already seen, be very productive in that way.

I don't see how this doesn't work. And the only thing I'll add is I think there's some buzz of Dalvin Cook, potentially landing with the Jets, and that might change some things. But as we are drafting right now, running back 11, I'm getting a lot of Breesall. Yeah. And talking about the same idea with the Sean Watson and the Browns and how rising tide lifts all boats with the offense is being better. He played in the least efficient passing offensive offense in the league last season. And it was doing this sort of stuff.

And if you're looking at the other running backs being taken slightly ahead of him, I would rather have Brees Hall every single time over Josh Jacobs. Like every single time. Because the circumstances that Josh Jacobs played in last season just aren't going to be replicated. It's why he'd be terrified about Devante Adams this year. So even the guys they're going slightly ahead of him, I would just rather have Breece Hall in that spot. Just quickly, you could not get more different from the running back 11 in Breece Hall to the running back 12 and Najee Harris in terms of games and styles and anything of how they play football. That's, don't even get me started on that. Okay.

Round four, the guy that you guys wanted to talk about here. Just for you. This is going to be complicated for me emotionally is Justin Fields. Hayden, why Justin Fields in this range compared to some of the other guys who might be available? we're talking about Justin Herbert is a quarterback. You could draft in this range. A lot of the wide receivers that we just talked about, the guys in that Jemir Gibbs,

Najee Harris range. Why Justin Field is your fourth round pick if you want to win your fantasy league? The Bears were 30th in plays. They were dead last and passes per game. And he was still the quarterback five in his second season. And it wasn't even a good second season for Justin Field. And they're adding, obviously, DJ Moore.

I think the Chase Claypool edition helps him out. I think the Robert Tunyon edition helps them out. They have their divot running. back again. They have another a year in the off season to get Justin Fields going with this offensive line. So I think to the Justin Fields party is just beginning. And he hasn't been that great of a pastor. But when I was watching at Ohio State, there was at least some specialness. You can at least see what the upside case would be with him. I think that this was a perfect example of how fantasy football is kind of trending back. But like the last like five,

10 years, it was the narrative, the late round quarterback is how you win your leagues because these Justin Fields type of players were typically drafted. I was like the 20th, 30th quarterback, like the Lamar Jackson season came out of nowhere. But now we're pricing some of these guys in. And like you guys said on that show with Ben Solac, the quarterback scrambling, the design quarterback run, that's the big difference, not just for real life,

but for fantasy football. These elite quarterbacks are actually starting to separate before because when Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers were running the league, they were the best fantasy quarterbacks, but they were adding nothing on the ground. Some of these guys like Josh Allen, Jalen, Jalen, Hurt, Patrick Mahomes, they're just as good with the passing touchdowns

and the passing yardage as some of those. as pocket quarterbacks. But now they're adding all this rushing production. So this is a little bit of a bet on the DJ more replacing whatever they were running out there as like the wide receiver two and wider receiver three on the team. But I also think that there's more upside with just Justin Fields himself because I saw the Ohio State for a couple seasons. All right. You guys ready for me to throw some cold water under this just because I have to? My concern here would be that so much of the rushing production last year, Josh, came off of these just unsustainable, explosive place.

that if you're not going to get those 60, 70-yard touchdowns, how many do you have last year? Four? Yeah. I think it was at least that many. I mean, there's so many explosive plays in the running game. So if that ticks down a little bit and then the passing volume doesn't increase that much, if the passing efficiency doesn't increase that much, then is running, is quarterback five actually his ceiling, not a kind of a baseline level where we can expect him to be in that range year and in year out?

Yeah. And in a way, now we can think of the rushing ability as a floor rather than a ceiling. To your point, though, he did pace all quarterbacks last year in rushing points per game at nearly 11. And there's this crazy stat that Rich Rebar put out where on those carries that went 40 plus yards, he had as many yards as Jalen Hertz and Josh Allen combined on those carries. So to your point, Robert, it's not just like. That's an incredible insane stat. But that sounds right.

Like that's not even that crazy when you actually think about it. We're not just getting a running quarterback. We're getting a guy that just takes runs to the house unlike anyone else at the position. And yes, as you said, we don't see that for anyone else across the league and how he evaded pressure and did everything in that regard. It was not so stuff. Highlight real stuff. And the bearer still lost. But what Hayden is talking about were.

the DJ Moore, Don our right, and finally for an entire season, we get coaches that understand him enough in his strengths now because, as you know, it was the mini buy and then we finally got some changes in like red zone usage. You know, they allowed him to throw in that area. We got design runs. And so getting a full season of that, I think, is the floor and then hopefully we get progress as a passer. And to that point, he's almost at a crossroads moment with that. And I hate to say it where he's still young in his career. But, with the decisions that they made front office-wise, to me, it is almost a crossroad situation of, hey, they had a chance to move off of you as a pastor, and they didn't. It's time to really progress in that area. It's just, here's why it's tough for me. All of those things I think are justified. And I think the offense itself is going to look so much better than it did last year. My only concern is that if it looks more like a professional offense and the dials are turned such that we see more traditional numbers in terms of brushing volume, in terms of how the offense actually moves,

do we see less of him running and what does that mean for his fantasy value? If he's going as quarterback 10, it's like, okay, no doubt. But now it just feels like there's only so far he can go, right? Like, could he win you your league? Yes. But you're drafting him at quarterback six? That's baked in. Like that upside seems baked into what his ADP feels like right now to me.

And one final point here, he took a sack on 32.5% of his pressures so far. You don't have to tell me. I know. And the league average, I think, of the past years is around 20%. And Hayden talks about this quite a bit where once you take a sack and a drive, the, it's over. How likely it is you score points in that drive, it drops off a cliff. And so like DJ, DJ Moore is not going to help Justin Fields and this team score more touchdowns unless Justin Fields starts avoiding sacks and, you know, changes his pressure to sack ratio to the endth degree. And there is some concern in that regard just because of how he plays the game.

My argument for that is that I do think the right receiver helps you so much in that area. Got it. You look at what happened with J.1 Hertz and AJ Brown last year. Oh, yeah. Just this idea of, all right, I got one on one. I'm throwing to the good guy. And I'm not saying that DJ Moore is A.J. Brown, but he's a lot better than what the Bears were dealing with last year.

The Bears had no guy that you could build your passing game through. Like that number one option where it's like, all right, we're tagging you. You're the first read on 60% of the plays that we're running. And if it's a 50-50 ball, I can just let that. this thing rip. They did not have that. And I think that's one of the quickest things you can do to have your quarterback play fast. And that's why I think the DJ Moore thing is such an important addition. Even if DJ Moore doesn't have 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, just that the presence of that sort of player can change the complexion of your passing game.

And I think that's why it's really important. All right, let's stick in the NFC North here, the guy that you guys had in the fifth round, Josh, Alexander Madison, running back from the Vikings. We're in a post-Dalvin-Cook world. We are. Why Alexander Madison in the fifth round if you want to win your fantasy league? Being drafted right now is running back 19. First of all, it feels like any second contract that a running back receives at this moment in time is like an indication of intent that he has some backing from the team, just where we are at the position. And so far in his career, he has been the ideal running back handcuff. I mean, four games he filled in as a starter in 2021 for an injured, Dalvin Cook, 23 points, 26 points, 21 points, and 16 points.

He is coming off a career low in touches with just 89 this past season. But to me that almost as a positive in that this new regime, this Kevin O'Connell-led offense, still wants to rely so far on one running back. And so now that it is going to be Alexander Madison's job, I'm excited because I've been in this corner for years and years and years. And this is the opportunity in an offense. That does play with pace. That does play a lot of snaps.

And I'm just excited that we get to draft him at this price versus where we've been drafting Dalvin Cook at prices previously. Not saying that they're on the same level as talents, but hopefully similar opportunities are there for both. You look at his underlying metrics Hayden compared to even a Dalvin Cook last year. And I think that there was some meat being left on the bone with Dalvin Cook getting a lot of that work compared to Alexander Madison. And so there's efficiency numbers, broken tax. number, whatever you want to look at, are actually better for Alexander Madison than they were for Dalvin Cook last year. And the offense is structurally, one that should be conducive to running back success. When you think about why Josh Jacobs was so good last season, all of the

advantageous boxes he was running into, the Vikings get a lot of that. So do you imagine just a cozier set of circumstances for any running back playing for the Vikings this year than compared to what it was like last year? Yeah, I think the big point there is that Dalvin Cook wasn't himself last year. So I think Alexander Madison can do Dalvin Cook things from last year's Dalvin Cook because he wasn't as good. And Dalvin Cook was the running back 15 per game last year. The only warning I would have here is when Alexander Madison was stepping in for

Dalvin Cook a couple years ago, that was with Zimmer and that offense was running through the running backs. Now this is very pass heavy. And that's why I'm really on Jordan Addison, for example, and a couple rounds later than this. Like, for example, last year the Vikings were only 26 and running back fantasy usage. So you can have a good RB2 season, which I think Alexander Madison will be. And I think in some of these other leagues on an underdog, Madison might be like more like ranked close to like running back 28 in your scoring system.

So I think in those leagues, I would in particular really like him. But I think that Madison's a serviceable player in this offense at least is out there scoring some touchdowns. And I think he's going to be a fine RB2 this year. I think some of your other leagues, you might be able to draft him with your RB3. Just a quick point on what Hayden said on Jordan Addison. We're not going to talk about him on this show, but he's going as wide receiver 37, about about it, about it on our show, where Adam Thielen ran the second most routes in the NFL last season at age 32. And now they have spent a first round pick on a guy who thrives on creating separation and isolation.

Kevin O'Connell talked about it after the draft where, hey, because Justin Jefferson is just a god on the other side, they get and that second wide receiver in the outside gets these beautiful looks, maybe more often than any other secondary wide receiver across the league. And if Addison wins, you know, half of those, then we're going to have a monstrous season from the rookie who's being drafted after other rookies in the same draft class. The other thing I'd say about the Vikings running game in general is that they just weren't really good on the ground last year. I mean, they never really found their footing even with some of those advantageous looks

that they were running into. I think part of that is that the staff was dealing with a set of personnel, even with the types of players they had, full back, two tight ends, that they never really worried about in L.A. The structure of the running game with the Rams is different than the one that they had to employ with the Vikings. And I think an entire offseason to kind of figure out, all right, these are the players that we have, these are the types of runs that we can do well. I think that's important for this staff specifically because they've had to do some tweaks

because of how hyper-specific the personnel the Rams have is. Yeah. And that Josh Oliver contract was one of them. You'd be surprised how much money Josh Oliver got. And there's one reason for that. It's because he can block. Some of the other running backs going around this range, Cam Acres, Miles Sanders, J.K. Dobbins. Would you guys safely rather have Madison than those three guys?

I'm really into Miles Sanders. Okay. Again, I do like to walk down Narrative Street often when we're looking at players changing teams and try to get a grasp of, hey, they were used in this way, in Miles Sanders case, with the Philadelphia Eagles, and how is that going to change on his new team? Well, we have heard from Miles himself that the reason he chose Carolina was to reunite with Duce Daly. We have seen, and you can ask every single Eagles fan, and I'm sure many listen to this podcast, and they'll tell me that Miles Sanders is a zero in the passing game. He sucks there. Well, with Duce Daly, his first couple years, he was featured in that area, and that wasn't associated to Jalen Hertz. We know that Bryce Young and Jalen Hertz play the game very differently. And so I absolutely view Miles Sanders as one of these three-down players, the guy who got the most money in for agency among all running backs this off season. So I'm taking a bunch of Miles Sanders running behind an awesome offensive line this past season. I do not believe he's going to get a ridiculous amount of inside

the 20, inside of the 10-yard carries like last year. But I think he will supplement his production in different ways than how he had to do it with the Philadelphia Eagles. You guys, tell me if I'm crazy, but when I'm looking in the fourth round, and I have Amari Cooper compared to a guy like Najee Harris and the running backs there, I like the receivers more. But when we get into this range, I don't know if I like any of the receivers available more than I like a Miles Sanders or some of the other backs, just because think about some of the receivers being taken here. Jackson Smith and Jigba, Gabe Davis, you know, even like Christian Kirk. I think that in this

range I actually might like the running backs more and that is surprising. If you had told me that before we started this, I would have said no fucking way, but actually digging into it, Hayden, is that insane? No, because the running back dead zone, which was like this era where like these classic RB2s were being drafted at the round three

four turn and you kept busting. We've adjusted now. And all of a sudden, all these wide receivers who typically were the seventh, eighth round picks are now being drafted in round five. So this little tier I kind of dip my toe in, especially in half PPR, I don't mind these guys. If we get Damien Pierce, who might be our next name, in my flex, give me that all day long.

Oh, yeah. All right. So let's talk about Damian Pierce. He was your guys' sixth round pick talking about a guy from each round who can help you win your league. Why Damian Pierce compared to some of the other guys, he's being drafted around, Josh. And those guys specifically being Dallas Goddert, Miles Sanders, who we talked about, Marquise Brown, Darren Waller, Mike Evans. Why Damien Pierce in this range for you? Being drafted is running back 21.

I think there's a running back 10 season in the range of outcomes for Damian Pierce. I mean, to me, this is the prime example of rising tides, raise all boats where the Texans were the worst offense in the NFL last season. And despite that, on the 15th most carries across the league, Damien Pierce had the fifth most force mistackles, the 16th most 10 plus yard carries. He still handled 54% of his teams carries inside the five yard line. That's the same number, same figure as Austin Eccler, Sequin Barkley, Ramandre Stevenson. but because the Texans just absolutely sucked, that was only seven opportunities.

And they just didn't, they weren't able to generate more red zone chances. Guess what? He still has a top two left tackle in the league. Titus Howard at right tackle is a really solid player. Hopefully Kenyon Green can take a step forward at one of the guard spots. They brought in Shaq Mason. They now have a play caller who's coming from the San Francisco tree. And they've done a pretty good job of efficient running games in the past.

And when you just use your eyes and watch Damien Pierce, he runs like his hair is on fire and is one of the most electric running backs in the league. And I'm just excited for him to play in hopefully an average offense because if he does that, then we could get some highlight real plays and week-to-week, I think, performances that warrant a considered top 10, top 15 talent across the league. He's the perfect kind of embodiment, Hayden, of what I was talking about before. Some of the guys going ahead of him, those receivers that we had mentioned, you're Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, Jackson Smith, and Jigba.

None of those guys, Gabe Davis, are winning you your fantasy league this year. None of those guys, in my opinion. I just don't think, independent of an injury, any of those guys is going to win your fantasy league. They're the number two option on all of those teams. Damien Pierce, absolutely could win you your fantasy league this year among the players going in this range. He's a fun player, and I think the offensive line is underrated. I think that CJ Stroud was unfairly picked apart, and I think that some people are down on him for reasons that are uncalled for. And beyond all of that, Damien Pierce also has the skill set where he can be a belkow.

He's got the size he runs with power. They also kept him in in past protection scenarios. I also think that C.J. Stroud has a chance to be somebody that will get the ball out quick enough and get the ball to his checkdown. And his primary competition right now is Devon Singletary, who is a fine back. But he's definitely a backup running back in my opinion. I'd sprinkle in some Devin Singletary. But to me, it's one of these fourth rounders who constantly get replaced.

But the Texans did not try to do that. And I need the reason why they did not try to replace him is because he's actually good. All right. Seventh round, the guy that you were looking at here, Darren Waller, tight end from the Giants. Tight end seven, 80th overall. Hayden, why Darren Waller compared to Traylon Burks, Michael Pittman, Jordan Addison, some of the other guys that could go in this range. Well, I hate to throw Josh under the bus, but I'm going to stay out of this one.

I'm going to kick this over to Mr. Josh. Oh, good, good, good. All right, that's good to know. No, okay. I will dive into Hayden's brain. You know this from podcasting with a, uh, with a co-host. Um, you hear what the other person's perspective is all the time. Hayden is either Travis Kelsey and Mark Andrews or he's waiting like way late for tight. Okay. All right. I get that. Tripling up at the position. And I'm basically doing the same thing except for throwing some Darren Waller exposure in there. Because while successful from a win-loss standpoint for the giants, it's so clear that last year's, I'm, offense is not what Mike Kafka and Brian Dayball want to run. And the biggest investment that they made this offseason was bringing in Darren Waller. And I just remember at his peak seasons with the Raiders, how he was utilized in the red zone. Like they would isolate him split out as an X wide receiver. They put him in a two point stance in the slot. They'd use him in line. It was so much was drawn up for him

to get like the prime matchup in the condensed area of the field. And he was fantastic at it. And I can see him being their go-to pass catcher in 2023 because while they brought in, you know, Paris Campbell and spent a mid-round pick on Jalen Hyatt. They're bringing everyone back in like Darius, Slate and Isaiah Hodgins and maybe Wondell Robinson makes an appearance too. But man, like Darren, not just what we saw in the John Gruden era raiders, but then what we saw this past season with Josh McDaniels, where he led all NFL tight ends with 35.7% of his targets being 20 plus yards down the field.

The next closest tight-in was at 25.5%. So we can do it all, in my opinion. And I just hope that he's healthy. That's always a question. But I'm always drafting as if I'm going to win. And I think Darren Waller might be the most mispriced tight in right now. Darren Waller is the only tight end in this range or lower that could potentially be the focal point of his passing game.

It has the talent to justify that. And so I totally understand the reasoning. There's plenty of downside. He's 30 years old. He's missed a ton of time. But Hayden, if you're thinking about the points that Josh just made, where are you trying to poke the holes? Where are you guys maybe a little bit disaligned on this?

I think he has the upside, but I'd rather just pay up a little bit more to, like, lock in that upside with somebody like Mark Andrews. And to me, he didn't, there's just a little bit more risk with the age and the injuries. And he didn't break a single mistackle last year, which is kind of on my radar. And they used him in a different way,

like Josh was saying downfield, which maybe is a good thing. There's more explosive plays in that area, but maybe they're also we're using him in that defined role for a reason. So just a little bit nervous about kind of the age and injury history. Darren Waller's kind of been a pretty inconsistent player. So I've just been dipping my toes like way later in the draft or way earlier. One of the other guys that you had thrown out potentially in this range.

Hey, maybe this is one you can get behind. Is David Montgomery now of the Detroit Lions. Why David Montgomery compared to some of the other guys going in this general range? He's the player I've drafted the most. Oh, wow. Okay. Any player, any of it. And the reason why is because the lions were first in their running back usage last season.

Jemir Gibbs may be really good. And if that is the case, then you hope that somebody like David Montgomery could have a Jamal or D'Andre Swift season where both of them were top 20 fantasy running backs. But in the pure upside case, whether Jemir Gibbs is too small, injured, classic rookie, just inconsistencies, whatever it is. Or just has a more defined role than that. Just yes, stuck in a defined role, which we have seen with DeAndre. Swift, for example, I think that he can absorb a monster workload. And a monster workload in this offense is fantasy gold. And he's one of these players.

And we've had this like for five, six years in a row, you're James Connor, your Leonard Fournettes, your Josh Jacobs from last year. These plotting running backs that don't have the long speed of some other fancy players like Jemir Gibbs get completely overlooked because no one's going to be out there touting the James Conner seats. No one was out there touting Josh Jacobs because these guys are boring. But you know what NFL running back coaches love? Consistency picking up the yardage.

And David Montgomery's not going to wow you, but they paid him like somebody that they want production from. And I know that Dan Campbell's going to love David Montgomery. And if Jemir Gibbs misses some times, I think that we'll be looking at a top five potential running back because we had an insane season from Jamal Williams, who was in a defined rule. Robert, it is so in my radar that despite how good the lion's offense was

and they had a running back who scored, what, 19 freaking touchdowns. They just elected to replace them because all of us know that David Montgomery is a better player than Jamal Williams is. And that can be the case that Dave Montgomery has a better season, but that also doesn't mean he's going to get 19 touchdowns. But at the same time, he can be more effective in the passing game. He can be more effective between the 20s than Jamal Williams was. And I'm just excited to see what this line's offense does as like a version 2.0 with this improved backfield running behind this awesome offensive line. And I think the connection that Hayden just made of the overlooked types of the James Conners, the Leonard Fournettes, the Josh Jacobs absolutely applies here to Dave Montgomery's being drafted right now as running back 24.

Feels like this is just a bet on the Lions offense if you're taking him in this range, which is a worthwhile bet. So some of the other guys going at running back around this spot, here are the guys that you would have to take Dave Montgomery ahead of essentially. I say Pacheco, Rashad White, James Connor. James Cook all of those guys in this range. I can understand it. I think every single one of those guys has like a pretty strong strike against them in one area or another. So even if it feels a little bit rich because of Jemir Gibbs being there, I do understand the thinking.

There's an easy path for both David Montgomery and Jemir Gibbs to have outstanding seasons and be top 20 running backs. And you're not having to pay that price for David Montgomery right now for sure. All right, let's get to the eighth round here. You guys had Rashad Bateman or Zayflowers. Both of them going, I think, probably in similar spots. Back to back. Wide receiver 45, wide receiver 46. That's incredible.

Okay. So first of all, Hayden, if you had to pick between one of them, which one are you going? To me, this is clearly Rashad Bateman. We had Lamar Jackson call Bateman, his quote, wide receiver one. That's a good sign. I also am just looking at how the Ravens have deployed their offense. and this is the really tricky part, and I think it's a pro for Rashad Bateman,

is they've been a very two wide receiver set offense. And my fear is what Zayflowers is that he could be the rookie stuck in the slot, doing fancy Devin Doverner things, while Odell Beckham and Rashad Bateman kind of settle in. That's the two wide receiver set starters. And they want to use Isaiah likely. They can use a second running back. They can use a mix in a fullback.

But at the same time for Rashad Bateman, who I think is going to be out there in almost every single snap, is this aggressiveness on fourth down, this aggressiveness with deep shot, is finally going to be paired with just passing volume in general because of the new offensive coordinator. So Rashad Bateman, he's been very inconsistent, has played with a little less physicality than I was hoping for

from somebody that I saw that in college. I think there's a chance that we get at like a year three type of breakup Rashad Bateman, and he's the beneficiary of the offensive coordinator changed the most. This is where I'm running into some issues here, Josh, is that I'm bullish on the Ravens' offense and the Ravens passing game in general, but trying to untangle it all just seems like a mess.

I'm not sure I want to be a part of. Yeah, it is. I mean, again, wide receiver 45, wide receiver 46. So you have to choose between one of these two guys. And if you don't, then maybe you go in for Odo Beckham at wide receiver 53, who has not played football in quite some time. Can you remember anything like this? A team with three receivers within eight spots of each other in ADP.

And that's it. Those are the three receivers. It's not like we got one lingering somewhere else. You know what? It's not too dissimilar to the. Kansas City Chiefs last offseason when you were drafting kind of between Juju, Sky Moore and then MVS on top of that. So the answer is draft the quarterback and draft the tight end and just move on from there.

We could do an entire episode on how the Todd Monkin offense changes what Lamar Jackson wants to do and just from a scheme standpoint. But just the words that they're using right now, they're going to prioritize playing faster. They've said they want to get the backs more. involved in the passing game. I'll believe that when I see it. Execute more in the red zone. I mean, again, more plays, more pace for Lamar Jackson just equals like fantasy goodness. As what you said, I'm just having a tough time picking between these two. This was more just a nomination of, hey, let's talk about this team that I think

might be undervalued as a whole because it's, I think at times so difficult for us to grasp massive offensive changes with really good players. And to me, that is one of like the things I strive for during this time of the calendar year is try to like beat my opponents and guessing which teams will take a massive jump with that. I think that's totally reasonable. And if you look at the receivers going just after him, I would want to bet on the Ravens passing game with Todd Monkin over some of these other options talking about Michael Thomas, Corlin Sutton, James, Tyler Boyd a little bit in that range, Jujus and Schuster, Alan Lazard. I would rather bet on Todd Monkin and Lamar Jackson shooting one of these guys to the moon than any of those

others. Again, it's just hard to figure out which one that's going to be. I almost, this is just my personality in a nutshell. I almost would just go with Zay Flowers because it's new and I've never had to worry about it before. I have no scar tissue. So I'm just going to go with the unknown because it's shiny and exciting. I will say at the start of last year, and again, totally different offense, Lamar Jackson did have 10 touchdowns throwing in the first three games of the season. That was when Rashad Bateman was able to be on the field and be like that isolated man-to-man coverage beater. And then after he, you know, was sidelined with an injury, Lamar's passing stats like fell off a cliff. I think he hit 10 touchdowns for 13 touchdowns for the remainder or excuse me, seven touchdowns,

the remainder of the season in the air. So it's, um, I'm totally with you on that mindset of. You can't talk yourself out of Zayflowers because you've never actually seen Zayflowers play. But maybe this is one, Robert, when we get to the preseason and we get some answers from it, that could help us out of quite a bit. Let's get to the ninth round here. Player you guys wanted to throw out here, Anthony Richardson from the Colts as the player in the ninth round, who could help you win your league. Why Anthony Richardson in round nine?

I think in your casual home leagues against maybe your drunk high school friends or college friends, you might not have to draft Anthony Richardson in the ninth round. So this is just kind of forward-thinking in a couple months where all of the sickos that are drafting in June and July, we are finding every little detail but Anthony Richardson talking about his upside and how maybe some of these stats from college aren't reflective of what he actually can do with a better supporting cast. And I think that Anthony Richardson will be slept on in your more casual leagues.

And he does have the upside that we were more accustomed to with the late round strategy. I think the Colts knew they were drafting Anthony Richardson basically in January. When they made these coaching hires, we're talking about from an Eagle staff that got the best out of Jalen Hurst, but also the quarterback coach was paired up with Kyler Murray and Cam Newton before. I think that this entire time they knew they were wanting Anthony Richardson with this pick. And I think they're going to do everything to kind of establish him as the guy. And for fantasy purposes, what we saw Jalen Hertz is all of that design rushing. You see what the quarterback stinks on fourth down, which are very successful, keep drives live.

But you also see with some of this quarterback run stuff on third downs as well, where other teams would have to pass the ball where they might try to run the ball because they know they're going to be going to be fourth down. So I think the Colts are going to be pretty aggressive in like a mini Eagles version. Now the risk is, is it too much for Anthony Richardson. But for fantasy purposes, we're looking for upside. We only care if you come in first place in your fantasy league. I was about to quote you guys saying that here is the definition of that. I was about to say, you guys say this all the time. We're not trying to finish fifth.

that is not what fantasy football is about. And if you look at where Anthony Richardson is going compared to some of it, Anthony Richardson's going four spots in front of Samajet P. Ryan in Best Ball ADP right now. And for as much as I love Samajet P. Ryan and what he gives you, I think that's all you need to know in terms of what this range of fantasy drafts typically looks like, Josh. Yeah.

And we talked about how really the top four, top six have some elements of rushing capabilities in their game at the quarterback position. And there are varying degrees of that. You know, we talked about Justin Fields and Jalen Hertz versus, you know, the Patrick Holmes and Joe Burroughs of the world who still have East capability. But like looking at the immediate quarterbacks right after Anthony Richardson, it's Dak Prescott, it's Kirk Cousins. You jump a spot as Gino Smith.

It's Aaron Rogers. It's Jared Gough. Like the further down the list you get, the last upside you're getting with Russian capabilities. And look, I'm not going to call the Colts offense as it equates to last year's version of the Philadelphia Eagles. but we did see, again, similar play caller, Jaylen Hertz had 20 carries from inside the 10 yard line, and he scored nine touchdowns on them.

And just to rewind this back to our discussion about another mobile quarterback in Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson is so far ahead of not allowing pressure to turn into sacks. Yes. I mean, he was pressured at a class high, 37% of his dropbacks last year and was sacked on just 10% of those. And I said this a lot.

I'm sure you guys said the same thing. To me, he was not raw. He was just inexperienced. And you saw that in like first halves against LSU to like the fourth quarter where he saw a coverage, Mr. Reed in the first quarter came back and hit it in the third quarter. I just think, I don't know how we can fail, to be honest with you, with the pocket movement. And just again, that on action and experience learning and progression that he showed in just a short amount of time. I'm so amped to see what Anthony Richardson does during his rookie season.

I thought so much about this over the last couple of years. And like, what actually determines the floor for an NFL quarterback? And I've talked with coaches about this because I find it so interesting. And I think that the floor as a passer and as a quarterback overall is determined by your feel in the pocket. I think if you can navigate that space, you can only be so bad as an NFL player. The guys who've had floors that are essentially a trap door where it's just like it's non-existent. You're Zach Wilson's players like that. It arises because

their inability to feel out that space. So that's the floor as an NFL player. But we already talked about the floor for quarterbacks as it relates to fantasy, and it's the rushing. And he gives that to you immediately. And I think he's going to be on the field sooner rather than later. I struggle to get overly excited about this because

every single asshole in my fantasy league listens to this show. And I have the seventh and eighth picks in our rookie draft, and I just don't want to talk about whether or not I like Anthony Richardson. Good luck. The point that you made, though, about athletic ability and arm, oftentimes being equated to a player's ceiling, why can't it be their floor? You know? And then the eyes, the vision, the passing, the progression, all of that, the mentality, the mental side of it.

Maybe that's the ceiling here. So if that's the case, Hayden, rushing equals fantasy points for us. And that gives us maybe not like week to week quarterback 11, but maybe that gives us some weeks of quarterback 3. and quarterback four and quarterback two overall stuff. And my only last note with Anthony Richardson is his feel in the pocket was certainly better than what giving credit for just like his ability to like have a sense of where the pressure is. Also some of the times why his pressure to sack rate was so low is because he's too big. Like literally there's times where like somebody be on his back and even just throw them to the

side. Like his physicality is why he's avoiding so much sacks at the same time. It's important to recognize and bring this up as often as we. can. He truly is the best athlete that has ever played quarterback in the NFL. Like, it's not overstating it. That is not an exaggeration. He is the best athlete to ever play the position. And I'm just going to bet on that sort of physical profile. And if I'm wrong, I will happily be wrong. And then I'll just move on with my life. All right. Round 10, the guy that you guys had as the round 10 player who could help you win your fantasy league, Hayden, Rashad Penny from the Philadelphia Eagles. I am ready to be heard again. Make the case.

for Rashad Penny here in this range of drafts. This is also one of these where I hope in your regular leagues, you don't have to draft Rashad Penny in the 10th round. But the upside case is so obvious since 2018. He's leading the running back position yards per carry. His big play rate is phenomenal. We've already talked about this with the Miles Sanders rushing production in the red area. I think that Rashad Penny has the best chance to kind of inherit the Miles Sanders role

versus someone like DeAnders Swift. I think DeAnders Swift might be kind of fancy Kenny Gain, who's going to be the past game back. The problem with the Eagles offense is they actually don't throw their ball to the running backs ever. They were 31st in that last year. So maybe with DeAndre Swift, they will try to do that. But I think that it just could be like, who's the best pure rusher? And I think right now Rashad Penny is that guy.

And the big counter to this is he's only has $500,000 and guaranteed money. But is that a Rashad Penny thing or is that just an Eagles philosophy? Because I'm looking at the DeAndre Swift rate was a 2025 day three pick, a Boston Scott. who's a legend in the community. It's a core special team where he only got $1 million guaranteed. So nobody has a lot of commitment to some in this offense. And I think it's just going to simply just simply be who's the best player on the ground.

And the goal line back is the only back that's fantasy relevant. And Rashad Penny is bigger. He's been in this role. And whenever he's healthy and he's already practicing no TAs, I think in this offense, there's going to be lots of lanes. And I can see him ripping off multiple 50 yards touchdown. Yeah, Robert, to me, this is a conversation of Rashad Penny and D'Andre Swift, right? And it's basically seeing who replaces the running back 14 and points per game last year in Miles Sanders.

Because from a running game standpoint, there's really no better place to be than the Philadelphia Eagles. And there's this term thrown around in fancy football circles now called high value touches. And correct me from wrong Hayden, but I believe that's Targis Plus red zone opportunities. And for DeAndre Swift last year, he had 70 targets and 23 Red Zone opportunities. So how DeAndre Swift got them. And if you just put that figure up there, it's like, really good for the amount of opportunities in total that DeAndra Swift got, but every team is different in how they deploy those to their running backs. And the Eagles won't give a running back 70 targets.

I mean, the lines through their running backs 115 times last year. The Eagles through their 61. So if we're looking at it, who's just the better runner? And I think that's Rashad Penny. He's one of the best runners in the league. He is. He's one of the best team running backs in the league when he's on the field. And again, this is all about opportunity costs. It's all about alternatives. And if you look at the players available in this range of drafts, even if we're going off of a sharper ADP Hayden, we're talking about guys like Skymore, Damien Harris, Zay Jones, Jacoby Myers. You know, players that just, again, aren't going to win you your league. And so even if you crash and burn with a guy like Rashad Penny, it just feels like a worthwhile bet to make. I will say, and you guys mentioned this on the running back sleep sleeper show that you did a little bit earlier this week. Kalea Herbert is also someone. that you can draft in this range. And I think that he is another potentially interesting running back compared to the alternatives at this stage of drafts. I think that just goes into like how much the offense environment matters.

And like the bears, they don't throw the ball to Khalil Herbert. Khalil Herbert's not really a passing game option. So I think that there's more touchdown opportunities available for Rashad Penny versus Khalil Herbert. But I agree they are very similar style rushers, both very efficient rushers. I think Khalil Herbert is a very good rusher in his own right. And the wide receivers are gross here. I mean, say Jones.

even though he's my guy last year. Romeo Dobbs, Jacobi Myers, Darno Mooney. Who cares? I haven't said this on a show yet. Maybe I'm workshopping this theory. I think there might be real low-key value in Damien Harris if, like, we can believe the Buffalo Bills wanting to take away some of that inside the,

but that Robert might just be off-season scuttle butt. And then once they get to the nitty-gritty of games, it just goes back to Josh Allen carrying the load in that air of the field. I honestly, though, I think that that's an interesting thought because James Cook to me is much more of an idea than he is anything rooted in reality right now. And beyond even the high value touches in the red zone, if we're going to see the bills kind of undergo this more philosophical shift where it's more balanced and they're willing to run the ball more and kind of bring this physicality that they haven't in years past. And they eventually just decide, I want the guy that's going to get me 4.2 a carry.

I just need somebody that can eat some of this work, then I think Damien Harris might end up becoming that guy. Yeah. We saw it just two years ago. like Damien Harris had a lesser but similar season to Jamal Williams just two seasons ago with the New England Patriots. And it's like everyone's forgotten about it because of what Ramandre did last year. But at the very least, I think Damien Harris leads that backfield in rushing touchdowns inside the 10 yard line this year. All right. Before we get out of here, I want each of you to give me two guys outside of the top 10 rounds that you feel like people should be looking for in drafts this year.

Hayden, I'm going to let you start two guys. So I'll go with Nico Collins, wide receiver for the Texans talking about just kind of this offense might be a little underrated. It's not going to be good, but it can go from really bad to average. And Nico Collins is something that can win on the outside, win downfield. And I think it's got a little bit more bend to his game. And he's a developing young ex-receiver, year three wide receivers are still the types that break out a lot. He's been in the worst circumstances ever. I think Robert Wood's a good role player at this point.

I think Tank Dell is going to be only a small snap player because of his size. I'm not sure what we're going to get with John Mechie. So unless Dalton Schultz goes crazy, who I'm also high on Dalton Schultz, I think that there's a chance that Nico Collins does something. And if you're in a really deep league, and we're talking about super deep, I think Luke Musgrave could have the chance

to kind of break out from this kind of rookie tight end narrative because he's also competing with a rookie tight end for snaps. I'm not sure if the Packers have somebody that could absorb a ton of targets. I think Christian Watson might be more of like a get him six, seven targets and let him be really efficient. And that team also might have to be trailing latent games. I think that Luke Musgrave looks pretty flashy from all the videos I've seen. And he was a very intriguing player that has a size and speed and all that stuff.

So maybe for Dynasty League, maybe if you're in an 18 team league or something like that, but I do think that Luke Musgrave later on the season, somebody that at least watch for it. It is not, I don't think it's crazy at all to say that Luke Musgrave walks into that offense is the second most talented pass catch from day one. Yep. If you look at what he did on the field last year before he got hurt, just the fluidity, the way that he moves.

obviously Christian Watson is a fantastic athlete but I think that it's I would safely say that he's the second most talented pass catcher on the team right now so I think that's a really good one. I have Nico Collins in my long term keeper league and it's just like I got to make a decision about whether or not it's worth like

eight bucks to keep him and I think I think the answer is yes we have a limited amount of guys right so like you can only keep three veteran keepers I'm looking at Kim for eight dollars or like Brandon and I you for 26 and it's like all right I I am going to roll if I yuk because I will die on that hill that like I will be sitting there like in the cold pouring

rain. Oh yeah. Like a sign until my dying days, but like the brand and I yuk breakout season is coming. I will be sitting here waiting for it until I die in this rainstorm. All right. Two guys, Josh, lay it on me. Yeah, I've already mentioned Jerome Ford. He's already moved up from running back 57 up to running back 50. Robert, he's one of those that we're trying to be ahead of the game right now. And I think once we get to preseason and either he is the clear starting running back because Nick Chubb is missing preseason action or they're just sitting him because they know he's already standing as the second running back on the team. Then he maybe moves up another five to seven running back spots. So if you're drafting right now and underdog, go and get Jerome Ford. And I'll throw in,

God, I guess I'll do it again. Gerald Everett as tied in 18, 155 overall. I don't, and maybe you can tell me if I'm off base here, Robert, but from a Kellynne Moore offense with what Dalton freaking Schultz did in terms of being the Titan 3 overall in points per game, and then last year the Titan 10 in points per game. I don't know if that was a Kellynne Moore thing, a Dak Prescott thing, trusting his tight ends. I know it's not a Dalton Schultz thing because he's like the most average talent you've ever seen at the Titan position. I just think that Gerald Everett, where they haven't replaced him on this team in terms of a free agent or a draft pick has the first chance to be in this new era or evolution of the Chargers offense,

even with Quentin Johnson involved. And to me, that is going to give us some potential spike weeks at the tied in position. And that's really all that we care about guys who score touchdowns. And I just want to be attached to a team like that where we're not having to pay the Kellyn Moore tax on Gerald Everett right now. Yeah, I think that makes sense. My only concern would just be the amount of miles to feed within the offense and how much work he ends up getting overall compared to what the Cowboys have been like over the last

couple years. And the Cowboys have been CD and then we're searching for something else. That's why there was the CD Amari Cooper. Uh, was it no who was the third wide receiver in that spot? And then that's when Dalton Schultz really went off, you know? So it's, I don't know. Hayden loves, we talk about all the time on our show to Dr. Frankenstein these three late tight ends from like Titan 18 on and all the time.

I'm ending up with the likes of like Gerald Everett, Luke Musgrave and Hayden Hurst. And on that note, what could go wrong in that dynamic? Oh, God. It's that time of year, guys. I'm very excited to be back. Really, really appreciate the time. Always enjoy talking about this stuff with you guys. Please, Josh, tell everyone where they can find the fantastic work that you guys are doing over on Underdog.

The best thing to do is to go on YouTube. And we're over at the Underdog Fantasy Football Channel, the Underdog Football Show and whatever podcast platform you use. We were posting not as much as Robert, but about four times a week on there as well. You guys are doing plenty. We like a day off over there. But we're having a blast. And as you know, once July 4th hits and training camp winds up and preseason games go on, we're in the real heart of it. And we like to think our peak is in the July, August, September months.

And our whole goal is to help you win your fantasy league. So Robert, hopefully we helped you with that today. You guys certainly did. And it's indispensable work in the fantasy space. If you guys are not following what these two are doing, I highly encourage you to go check it out because it will, we'll, we'll, make a difference. It will end up impacting how you do in your leagues. And now is the time, like Josh alluded to, to get into it and start. All right. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys. Appreciate everyone listening. We will not be back next week.

Next week on the athletic football show feed, starting on Monday, all five episodes of Jordan Roderig's new narrative series. The Play Callers will be dropping in the athletic football show feed. I can't remember the name of my own podcast. In the athletic football show feed, if you guys are unfamiliar with the series and what Jordan did, this is a history of the Shanahan-McVey coaching tree, the impact that it has had on the NFL, and more importantly, kind of the interpersonal dynamics of all of these guys who've worked with each other over the last 10, 15 years. Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, Matt Willfleur, Mike McDaniel, all of these guys on the record. You're going to hear from them like you have never heard from them before.

all five episodes will be available on the Athletic Football Show feed starting on Monday. So please, please, please check that out. We will be back a week from Monday with more of your typical athletic football show programming. Until that, appreciate Jordan holding things down. Really looking forward to that. So please go check it out and we will be talking to you very soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.