The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The 10 biggest questions about NFL defenses in 2022

Episode Date: August 23, 2022

Diante Lee joins Robert Mays to tackle the 10 most important questions facing defenses this season. What will the Ravens look like without Wink Martindale? Are the Packers ready to make the jump to the elite tier? Can the Bills be as good as they were last year? Do the Chargers have the right personnel to go full Brandon Staley? The guys get into all of that, and a whole lot more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Diante on Twitter: @DianteLeeFBSubscribe to The Athletic Football ShowAppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Tuesday, August 23rd. Very excited to welcome. My good friend, DeAte Lee. Deiante, how you doing, buddy? I'm good, man. I think that you saw the tweet last night.

I feel like I just won the Super Bowl. My sister was on a $100,000 pyramid. That's awesome. That's so, so great. I love that. Yeah, and she did. She paired pretty well for herself, man. So we were all watching on the couch, you know,

jumping around for everything. So I'm feeling very, very gratified right now. That is great. We're going to be feeling less gratified doing the show because we did the top 10 offenses with Nate yesterday predicting them. You were scared to compete. So you decided that you did not want to predict the top 10 defenses for this year. Yeah, no, no thank you. I tried that with Mina and I felt like every time I gave a name of a team, I was like, yeah, this one's going to make me look like an idiot.

I'm definitely going to get attacked for this one. I'm going to get attacked for this one. So I think I want to separate myself from that. won't be that kind of taster today. You twofold. You did this with Mina already. And second, it's really hard to predict defensive performance. The Cowboys finish number one in defensive DVOA last year.

If you had polled a thousand people and asked them who would finish number one, none of them would have guessed the Cowboys. The randomness of defensive performance, it's less ripe for this sort of conversation than offenses are. So instead of predicting what we think is going to happen, we're going to ask, 10 big questions about what defenses around the NFL might look like. I honestly do think it's a more useful exercise at this stage of things when you're talking about that side of the ball. So you and I went through a bunch of them late last week, figured out a list that we wanted to do.

And the first thing out of your mouth when I asked you, what 10 questions do you want to dig into was about Mike McDonald on the Ravens? And I totally understand it because I think it's my first one as well. And put very simply, what will the Ravens' DeVs? defense look like with Mike McDonald, their first year defensive coordinator there, after several years of Wink Martindale and his double A gap mug pressures in the preseason philosophy and mindset and approach in general feel and vibe to his life. So what do you think is the answer? What do you think the Ravens are going to look like with Mike McDonald at the helm now?

I'm still so hung up on exactly what I think is going to be. And it's because I think the depth of the depth of their defense all is in the same position, right? And we talked about this. before. It's the safeties. It's up the spine of the defense. And like, what do you actually do when you have that all available to you? Is it going to look like what the Rams were, you know, minus obviously having an Aaron Donald when Brandon Staley was there and John Johnson and Will Hill and you're able to put anybody wherever the hell you want to in order to stop the run, in order to play the pass. You can play with light boxes that way. So that's kind of the thing that I'm really interested in. And I think a lot of this is tied to what the availability of

Kyle Hamilton is is like a big nickel type. Is he ready to take that on? Do you want to play Marlon Humphrey inside? I think that's something that Marlon's been more comfortable with in the NFL as he's progressed throughout his career, what everything looks like when everybody's healthy. You know, that kind of changes some things. But Marcus Peters is available and I've kind of spoken on how I feel about Kyle Fuller and Jalen Armour Davis.

Like this defensive backfield allows him to do so much, you know, and that's kind of what's really impressed, not just impressive, but intriguing to me. in terms of roster building and what that kind of projects out as. But I think it'll be 3-4, a lot of that kind of barefront stuff based on some of the people that I've talked to, the too high barefront penny package type of looks. And then we're going to get that same kind of 425 typical cover one and press quarters defense, which is what he was doing. Mike McAnonnell was doing at Michigan anyways.

So I think that we'll see a lot more of the kind of the current meta, I think, in 3-4 defense in the NFL is what I expect to see. I'm just really fascinated at what pieces or where and how much they spend, how much time they spend with six ds on the field. That, I think, would be a really big kind of telling piece for what this defense ultimately turns out as. Yeah, and I think if you're trying to paint with a broad brush about what that current meta is, like you said, can you play two high defenses out of a three, four front with, like you said, solving some of those problems, bare fronts and all the different variations of it. And I think one of the underrated aspects of how Brandon Staley and that group have defined their defenses, Rahim Morris last year, it's been with varied personnel on the back end. And even last year's Rams, think about how many three safety packages they played with Taylor Rap in the slot when they were figuring out what that corner group had to look like without Troy Hill.

And it looks a little bit different everywhere depending on the players that you have. And I think the Ravens are going to be another example of this where I have no idea how many three safeties, how many three corners. how many dime where you have three safeties and three corners, like all of that kind of stuff I feel like is on the table. I think it's going to be a lot more flexible. And the word I was going to use in regard to the way that Winkmardo used to play was aggressive. This defense isn't passive necessarily. It's just not aggressive in the same way.

Even last year when they were dialing back a little bit, they played man coverage on 54% of their third downs. They were blitzing at still one of the highest rates in the league. It was 35% of snaps on third down, which is less than they used to, but still a lot more than teams from this Brandon Staley-esque world that we're talking about tend to do it. So I think that it's going to be more similar to some of the teams that we've seen from that tree and just less of those dials that we've seen cranked all the way up under Wink Martindale

over the last three or four years. And I think that the benefit is some of the bodies that they have up front too. When you talk about Justin Madivouquet, obviously, you know, you still have the monster and Callais Campbell there. you have Michael Pierce. Like they've got these huge bodies. Travis Jones too. Right.

You know, Travis Jones from Yukon, you've got these enormous guys up front, which I think helps to solve some of the problems that you would see come up with Rahm Morris in the Rams last year, right? Is how do we need to stop the run, you know, and still be able to structure these fronts to be able to handle certain things in these safety, you know, different safety depths and are we playing shell coverage?

Are we playing single high? What are we doing with our defensive backfield like you were kind of describing? I think that because they already have a lot of those bodies available to them, even though none of them are 99. I think that that kind of allows them to be that flexible style of defense like we're saying. And then I think that really what that leaves is how much pass rush can you get out of like an OdafeoA? Right. Like that's where I think that a lot of these questions are going to come down to is can you generate real rush with four? And if you can, then that opens up the door for you to play more with 6 dbs, you know, and do some more things on the back end.

If not, then I think that we're still looking at, well, how much pressure do you actually have to generate? What does that mean in terms of personnel in your safety shelves and how varied you can or can't be based on your backfield production just rushing for? So that's kind of what I'm looking at right now for them. And that's a lot on early downs. Right. Third down, I just feel like we're going to see some wild shit. Oh, 100%. At his core, he still is a guy who was raised with the Ravens.

And I think that that's where we're going to see him really. express some of those ideas that they came to define them over the last few years. So now you have Odafe O'OA and Patrick Queen as a blitzer and I just think you're going to see a lot of crazy designer stuff in those situations. And I think that's a really fun combination. Like if we're trying to go with the new meta on early downs and then leaning into the Ravens identity on third down, that collection of ideas is a defense that I want to watch. And that's the beauty of having a bunch of playable and maybe plus starter level safeties,

right, is now a Patrick Queen doesn't have to be matched up on backs or tight ends on passing downs, which is maybe not playing to his strength. You can do some different things with him as a blitzer. You can show these double mug packages where you've got linebackers walked up over linemen, or you can do the overload stuff that we've seen from the dolphins where everybody's up at the line of scrimmage and you have to account for all these guys in protection and you don't know who's dropping. You know, those are the types of things you can do. And you can play cover one in that world because you have plus coverage players everywhere on the field.

Right. So that's the kind of stuff on third down where I think we can get really, really interested. To your point about that early down stuff, we're not going to see the same, you know, four from a side, two off an edge blitzes like you see from Wink Martindale, you know, in week one of the preseason that I think everybody's kind of been laughing at. I don't think you'll see them leaning as hard in that direction. But again, to this point, when you get to third down, when you get to second and obvious, you can start getting these different personnel packages and different front looks on the field where you don't have to worry so much. about your one young edge rusher having to be a star immediately because you can scheme some of this stuff up and still feel good on the back end. So as long as they're healthy, which over the last couple of years, you know, fingers crossed for Baltimore. But as long as they're healthy, I think that they have an opportunity, I think, to be a top 10 defense, if not a top five,

top eight type of defense this season. Yeah, of all the teams in the league, they're the team I want to see in week one the most. Right. I'm the most interested in structurally what it looks like based on what it's looked like in the past. And I think that's why starting with them makes all the sense in the world. Question number two. Let's go to the defense that finished number one in defensive DVLA last year and was arguably the best defense in football. Is the Bill's defense as good as we think it is?

When you did this exercise with Mina, you had them at number one when you were projecting the top 10 defenses. I have some questions about that, but I want to hear your reasoning why you think that they might be as good as we thought they were last year. I think that this might be, and this might not even be exclusive to their defense, this just might be the best roster top to bottom in terms of high quality starters and playable depth that we have in the NFL this year. You know, you go through their defensive depth chart and up front, you've got the guys that you want. You have Greg Russo, you have Von Miller, you have AJF Vanessa, you have Carlos Basham. And like the guys for them up front that are pass rushers that you maybe don't want, even as a number two, they're not going to be at.

to do that. They can truly be, you know, rotational guys. So you can generate the pressure with forward. You have Ed Oliver on the inside, you know, who's another good player for them. And I think that that allows them to do what they really want to do, which is play two high safeties on the back end, still be able to stop the run with their front four. And, you know, how I feel about a Chia Elam, how we feel about Trey White as a corner. You know, they have all the pieces that you need, I think, to be what we expect of a top five, top flight type of defense period. and I still have a lot of belief in what they have in their safeties in Jordan Poir and Micahide. I mean, both guys being all pros last season, I think if they're anything near that level,

bringing in Von Miller to be that, you know, featured pass rusher for them, they can be exactly who I expect, Sean McDermott defense to be, which is playing tough, you know, tight coverage on early downs, and then being able to mix in some pressure on third to get after quarterbacks and playing cover one and things like that behind it. So that's really what I'm looking at for them. I do expect this to be the number one defense in the NFL. And I think that because of that depth,

I'm not kind of holding my breath in the same way we would be for like a Dallas, who had some roster attrition with some of their quality starters. I think that even if a couple of guys go down for them, they have enough playable depth behind it, I think to maintain a high level of play that I think they're going to put out on the field this year. If you look at their second group of defensive linemen, the second line on their depth chart,

it's boogie bash from Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, AJ Epinessa. If that was the starting front four, for an NFL team, you'd think, I wish they had more. I just wish they had more. Like, they can survive, but I wish they had more.

That's the second group. The entire second lineup. There are no starters in who you just named. That's the second line on the dub chart. And I think that's how you would talk about it, which is absolutely crazy. And then you look at the secondary, and I think Kyriehielm, ideally,

would win that job for them. But Christian Benford, their six-round pick, has been a real surprise during training camp, and they really like Terrell Bernard. The linebacker they drafted in the third round, which they played nickel almost exclusively. That's what they did last year.

But there were some times, you know, those Patriots games where they had to throw three linebackers out there with A.J. Klein is the third one. Now you get a little bit more oomph with the guy like Bernard in there. And I had a GM this week. Tell me something that I wanted to run by you and see what you thought, because I know you liked him. He said he would have taken Kairilom over Derek Stingley

and Sauce Gardner. Hoof. I can understand the argument. I had them not as 1A1B1C, but if I'm, you know, being completely honest here, I had Kyrie Elam tied with Sauce Gardner for me in terms of projecting out what I think they'll be as pros. So Derek Stingley was my one,

but Kyrilem was right in that same tier with those three. And I would not have been mad if he would have been the first corner taken off the board, even if I wouldn't have done that personally. He's got all the tools. And when you look at how he plays, and how the bills like to cover, you couldn't find a better marriage of skill set and skill. Muscle, baby.

Muscle them up. And I love that. And he said that the talent was within shouting distance of those other two guys. The makeup is what puts up for the top. Yes, the mentality is right there, what you expect of that number one corner. So I think that he's going to fit right in across from Treyer White. You look at that, the secondary depth,

even if Trudevius White doesn't start the season healthy, they were fine last year without him. I think they did a really good job of accounting for him. You talked about that with Mena, where they're just shading the zone defenses a little bit differently, which I think makes total sense. The one thing I'd say, if I'm playing devil's advocate here, last year, the bills finished number one in defensive DVOA. They played the 31st schedule in the league, according to football outsiders. Here are some of the quarterbacks that the Buffalo Bills played last season. You ready?

Ben Rathlisberger, two a twice, Davis Mills, Taylor Heineke, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson twice, Carson Wentz in a game that he went 11 for 20 when his team won 41 to 20 Trevor Simeon, Mack Jones in a windstorm, and Sam Darnold. Those were 12 of their 17 regular season games last year. The AFCs is a gift that keeps on giving if you're a good team. That's the argument is that they're still getting those quarterbacks this year.

They still get Zach Wilson twice or Joe Flacco, depending on when Zach Wilson's going to come back. You still get to it twice, ideally in a better situation. for the dolphins, but there's reason to believe that the competition could give them a chance to have a leg up before the games even start. But that would be my one question is how much of that dominance was driven by the quality of quarterbacks they played last season, even if we feel good about the players they have on that defense. And also, they're so insanely well-coached. Watching their backups make checks during preseason games when you have teams whose starters

can't communicate and function, I think is a real testament to what Leslie Frazier and this group have done over the last few years and what they've built there. 100%. And this is something that I brought up when we were on the pod last with Nate and something that I'm going to be writing about. And I noticed it with them. I want to say there's maybe only three teams last year that qualified for this. And it's the pressure rate when only rushing four and the amount of snaps that you

played with two high coverages. And they were in the top 10 in both. And I think that if you can accomplish that, you're not sending a bunch of pressure, but you're still generating or affecting the quarterback at a high rate. and you're still able to protect yourself from explosive plays. That was the hallmark of the bill's defense last year. That was late in the season for the Packers last season. When we thought that they might still be,

when we thought they might be in contention, even without Jair Alexander, I think the bills were able to execute that without Trey White because of that ability to roll coverage over their number two or number three corner and still play quarters coverage opposite. You know, having a Taron Johnson that can do everything for you. Having those safeties that understand how to cover.

for guys who maybe have mismatches and things like that. And I think that they're able to protect their linebacker core, which is not a position group that I love for them, but I think that they have enough around them to where, you know, and Edmonds doesn't have to do much. Matt Milano doesn't have to do much. You have a bail inspector and a Bernard, like you mentioned, behind them to develop guys who I think can be decent linebackers

or guys who can add into the rotation and be that quality depth like we talked about. I mean, you look at their second group, and to your point, Would you love any of those guys standing alone? No, but when you look at who's ahead of them and you think, oh, well, if that guy only has to play 28% of the snaps defensively, I mean, you're cooking, you know? It's the same conversation of basketball when you say, like, well, if that guy's your fourth best starter or your fifth best starter, or if that pitcher is the fourth best in your rotation, you're probably a World Series level team. That's exactly what we're looking at for them defensively. And if they can continue to generate the pressure that they did last year with four, which I think they have the ability to because of that rotation, knowing, what they want to do on the coverage in and how discipline they are, like you were saying,

it's going to be tough to beat them. And that schedule, while it is tougher because it's a first place schedule, you do still have the AFC East, you do still have the Browns. You know, we're not exactly sure what that quarterback situation is going to be even when Deshaun is back. And I know it's like right on the cusp of when he's supposed to return anyway. You know, I like what they have. You can see in the Steelers again, you know, outside of the chiefs, the Packers and the Bengals,

You know, there's still not a ton quarterback-wise for them in the regular season that I think would change what you're looking at in terms of opponent's strength that would take them away from being, you know, one of the three best defenses in the NFL this season. I also just like some of the little tweaks because we think of them as a zone-heavy team, and they are, right?

I mean, that's how they want to live, but they play more man than you think they did, especially on early downs because of the guys that they have. And I asked Leslie Frazier about this, being such a zone-heavy team and seeing so much of the league moving to a more fire zone heavy world where you're playing zone behind your pressures.

You said, well, I don't want to do that because I like my matchups on the back end. Right. Like my secondary is so good that if I can play man and bring extra pressure, that's what I want to do. And that's, it's exactly right. Like, there are a zone heavy team that has man coverage players. And that is just such an advantage for them and what it allows them to do on the back end. And the Von Miller side of this, you know, Brandon Bean, I had a conversation with Brandon Bean when I was there.

And I asked him if it was uncomfortable pushing your chips in like that. When you've been so patient, you've built it in this really methodical, thoughtful way. And they want those pressures to turn into sex. They want to finish off those plays. And he's the type of guy that they think and get them there. And while definitely it is a move where you're stretching yourself a little bit thin and making, not a desperation play, but it would definitely something that was out of character for them. This is the time.

Like this is the window. He's a rare player. he fits into who they are and what they want to be, and this is it. Like, this is the time to try to make a move like that that's going to get you over the top. And speaking of Vaughn Miller, you want to know what this Bill's defense looks a whole lot like to me and the way you just describe, we've been describing them schematically, the 2015 Broncos in terms of depth, wanting to send pressure and play man behind it, playing zone when you're only rushing four.

Like, that is exactly what I think they're kind of lining up here. They got a lot of similar pieces. And while Vaughn might not be that same kind of tour to, force that he was having him next to what else they have up front, I think is plenty in order to get the best out of Vaughn and how he ended the season last year leaves me to believe that whatever drop off might be there isn't going to be a problem for them based on what else they have and who he still is as a football player. We talked about this in relation to offenses a lot.

We're being able to do a lot of different things as such an advantage. And with a lot of the really good defenses in the league, those different things are expressed through personnel. You can have different groups of players out there. But for the most part, the really good defenses in the league over the last five or so years have been pretty siloed schematically. You have teams that mostly play a lot of zone like that. The Staley teams do.

The Bills are a team that their different ways of doing it are truly like playing different stuff on the back end. We can play a man if we need to. We can play zone if we need to. And that flexibility, there aren't that many teams in the NFL who enjoy that type of flexibility on defense. But they are absolutely one of them. And I think it works to their advantage pretty consistently.

Absolutely. That is a legend of the late Jim Johnson, being an Eagles fan, an Eagle Shill right now. That is a legacy of that, right? You can send pressure from wherever you want, when you want to. You can get into any world that you want to, and you have the physicality in depth up front to still be able to stop the run and be able to bully teams. And I think that that might be one of the more underrated pieces of this defense. you know, for whatever the narrative was around that, you know, horrible windstorm of the game when they played the Patriots on Monday Night Football, I think they still only gave up like four yards per carry on like 46 carry. So they can still stop the run with this group. And that, I think, allows you, you know, the comfort and the flexibility to say all these pieces we have behind them, we can do whatever we want. If we've got to blitz you to beat you, we can blitz you every down. If you need to play cover one, we can we can reconfigure the matchups to do so. We want to play quarter. We want to play quarter. quarters, we can do that. When Trey White goes down, we can play halves over him and still play quarters,

you know, which is a glorified cover zero, you know, on the other side because we trust our safety in our corner to handle their one-on-one matchup so we can still fit to run and protect ourselves from explosive passes up to sideline. That's a rarity in the NFL, you know, that people talk, you know, when I went to the combine, that was something that I heard over and over again from coaches is, man, we would love to do X, X, Y, and Z. We have all that stuff in the book, but we're don't got the dudes or we don't we can't make that kind of investment because it would be it would be at the cost of what else we need that is a must do for us and they have that ability to say any week whatever we've got to do to beat you we can lean 100% into that and do so comfortably and it's not

going to come at the cost of the things and that level of versatility is exactly what you're looking for in an ideal world defensively and that's why I think they're the best defense in the NFL you mentioned jim johnson leslie fraser's first job in the NFL as the defensive backs coach for the Jim Johnson led Eagles. I asked him when I was there, because I'm curious because he's been in so many different places and run a lot of different types of defense. What at your core do you believe defensively?

What do you want to be? And the first two names out of his mouth were Buddy Ryan and Jim Johnson, which is a pretty fun little education to bring with you through your NFL career. Let's get to the next one here. Question number three. Just how hard will regression hit the Cowboys this year? We talked about them at the top, being number one in DVOA on defense last year.

I think a lot of questions. about what this defense looks like in 2022. It starts with turnovers. I think that's absolutely the place that you have to start. Looking at the EPA they generated on turnovers last year. It was 162.3. That means nothing. But for context, the next closest team is at 132.

The gap between the Cowboys and the Cardinals, 1 and 2, was about the same as the gap between the Cardinals and the Bengals who were 12th. That's how much of an outlier they were from the value they just. generated from taking the ball away. And I hate to break it to you guys. That's not consistent from season to season. We've learned this overtime like this. It just not how it goes.

And so I guess the quote, we know they're going to take a step back, but how big of a step back do you think they're going to take? I can't. Is it one to 17? Is it one to seven? I don't want to say one to 17, but that's in play. I think I think that's in play. I would say probably from one to 12, I think would probably be the happy medium for me.

But dropping to the low teams, maybe all the way to 20, I think is in play. And it's because of those splash plays, you know, to your point of nobody being able to guess that the Cowboys would rank where they were last year. Well, yeah, because you don't usually get a guy that looks like the rookie of the year, the defensive player of the year, one of the 10 best linebackers and one of the 10 best edge rushers in one guy in one season, right? And that's what Michael Parsons was. You don't usually get 11 interceptions from your number one corner. Like that's just not what you would expect. And I think it's going to be hard for them to dominate in situational situations. You know, third down, red zone defense, obvious passing situations.

They thrived in those situations. And that's a hallmark of the Dan Quinn defense is we're going to put a bunch of speed on the field so we can win when those situations come up. but actually generating that level of turnovers, that level of splash plays, as our coworker, Mike Sando would kind of describe it. And TFLs, sacks, pressures, QB hits, PbUs, interceptions, all those combined into one kind of statistic. They were in the top 10 in that. They're the second best third down defense in the NFL last year in terms of conversion rate. There were seventh in pressure rate on conversion downs. You know, that kind of stuff is hard to do year over year.

And it's not like Randy Gregory is a first team all pro level player, but losing a guy like that when you had that kind of combination of three real pass rushers between Parsons, Gregory, and Lawrence when he was healthy, that stuff has an effect when your defense is built around rushing five all the time and playing cover one. There's not a lot of relief for your defensive backs. So those guys got to get home. And I think it's going to be hard to generate the turnovers when they don't get home the way that they did last season. Yeah, I think that's totally fair. And you look at the personnel, it's not any better than it was last year. You're going to try to piece together that second edge rusher spot now with Dante Fowler and Sam Williams. On the back end, you know, they still have J. Ron Curse's back and the way they were out,

they used him in like a very specific role last year. I think him, Donovan Wilson and Malie Cooker will play a lot together. And they really like Durant Bland. He's been playing very well. He's played the nickel for them as a fifth round pick. I think they'll be fine. But I just don't think that they have the high-level. level players at all the levels of this defense to be a top five-ish unit again without those

turnovers. I do think Anthony Barr coming in is interesting just because theoretically it allows Michael Parsons to play on the edge. Which is what I think they need. And I think that that was a very necessary move for them. Yeah. I mean, just you have some flexibility built in there. And I think there's a lot of decent players on this team. I don't think there are a lot of great players on this team. And I think when you normalize for the turnovers, you're going to get a defense that feels fine but is nowhere close to what it was a year ago. I do think Dan Quinn deserves some credit for the evolution of what he has done defensively.

This team played more man on early downs than any other offense or any other defense in the NFL last season. And I think being a little bit more aggressive and having a couple changeups and even if you look at the coverages they played on third down, they played more cover two than you think they would. A lot more quarters than you think they would have. Just little wrinkles. And I think that he and I had a conversation when I was.

there in Oxnard and just about how much time he had during that 2020 season. He got fired a month into the year. And he had a lot of time to kind of sit back and say, what do I need to do differently? How do I need to change this stuff? And to his credit, there were a lot of changes. There was definitely a different look to that defense last season than it had been when he had previously coordinated defenses with the Falcons in before that. So I do think he deserves some credit.

But I just think that the talent level on this defense, even if they can be solid, it's not going to be the group that we saw last year. Yeah, and I wouldn't mark this as a red flag for them from last season, maybe more yellowish orange, but one of the things that was kind of concerning looking at the stats is that they get with the fourth more shards before contact on rushes. I think there was 16th in total defensive EPA per rush on early downs, and they had the fourth highest rate of explosive plays given up last year.

So if you're not really great against the run and you give up big plays, yeah, when you get to the quarterback and you force a bunch of turnovers, that'll paper over these issues. And this is something we'll talk about with the Cardinals, I'd guess, you know, at a different point. But if those things start to regress, yes, if those things start to regress and you're still giving up a bunch of big plays, you're still having trouble, you know, keeping offenses off schedule in terms of the run game, that does open up a lot of trouble. And that's how you get that drop from first to 12th or first to 16th in the NFL. And I still think that you can be an interesting, if not, you know, a playoff level.

you can win a playoff game on the road team because of how much belief I have in Deck Prescott and C.D. Lamb on that offense. But I do think that that drop-off certainly changes the trajectory of this team in 2022. Yeah, I totally agree. So let's get to those Arizona Cardinals. I think the question to ask about the Cardinals is, can the Cardinals and their weird-ass defense continue to do this? So this year, the Cardinals finished sixth in defensive VVOA this season. They finished 10th in 2020 in 2020. So two straight years

they've had top 10 defenses. You want to guess what they were in 2019, at least by EPA? 32nd. I mean, listen, good for Vance Joseph. Dead last. I think he deserves a lot of credit.

There's a decent amount of luck baked into this, which we can get into. Yes. But they finished sixth in defensive DVOA last season. Who was the best player in the Cardinals defense last year? Somebody cue the Jeopardy music. I need a minute. I'm going to need a minute with that one. When we say Buda Baker almost

by like default? Buda Baker. It's probably Buda Baker. But other than that, it's really kind of put together with toothpicks and paper clips and chewed up gum. It's such a weird collection of players. So to that point, I mean, everything you detailed exactly what I was going to start with. Dead last in defensive EPA in 2019, 11th and 2020 by the same metric. And then sixth, last season. And they were third in blitz rate last year, fourth in blitz rate the year before that, and second in blitz rate in 2019. So clearly, this is just what they are, right?

And you just kind of got to play the results based on how it comes to you. My big issue or one of the things that's really kind of been an eye razor for me is that when they're blitzing, they're dead last and pressure rate. And I think that so much of that is because every offense just knows, hey, we're banking on them bringing five or six. That's just what's coming. And I think that for them, they've been. been able to manage it because the heavy amount of pressure that Vance is sending makes

quarterback stole the ball short, right? I think that they're like second to last or have the second lowest air yards per target when they're blitzing. That helps because they don't have great, you know, coverage guys on the perimeter. Well, it's funny because the conversation we had about the bills, right? When the bills are sending pressure playing almost exclusively man on blitzes last year, the bills played 66% man coverage on blitzes. Last year, the Cardinals played 58% zone coverage on Blitzes.

They're just saying, we're going to make you throw the ball, we're going to play cover three behind it, and hope we can tackle. Exactly. That is how we have to live. It's a race to the football, man. Either we sack you or you check it down. That's basically the world that they live in, which is just not an approach that a lot of teams take. That's a very kind of when I was growing up type of approach, right? We're going to force you to throw hot by blitzing from space all the time on passing downs.

That's kind of what the Cardinals like to do. And I think that it gets them into trouble. And that's something that we've detailed. You know, I think that Vikings game was kind of a perfect example of something I talked about when I was at Pro Football Focus. That was week two last year when Dalvin Cook just had a field day. And they had so much trouble dealing with the motions and being able to get to Dalvin Cook in the backfield, even though they were blitzing.

So in a lot of ways, it kind of defies logic. I think what this defense is because of how they attack and the struggles that they have in the run game. So that's something that I've thought a lot about with them. I don't know. Do we call, I don't want to call this fake because you see the growth year over year. But to that point of, I don't think they have guys that I like. You lost Chandler Jones. You're still relying on JJ. I don't know if this is a real thing that I can bank on in 2022. We're coming up with fake position names for Isaiah Simmons. I just don't know exactly where this thing is at in 2022. and if they don't have the same amount of front talent that they had just last year,

is there really enough for them to be able to stand tall when offenses are comfortable dealing with some of their pressure packages? This is a fascinating collection of stats. Okay, so on Blitz's last year, the Cardinals ranked third in cover zero snaps. 42 of them on the season. They also ranked fourth in cover three snaps. So on Blitzes, the Cardinals essentially ran cover zero or cover three last season. That's what they did.

That collection of stuff together is hilarious. They were 28th in the amount of snaps they played cover one. So even when they're blitzing, they're doing such a weird variety of bullshit that no one else is doing. I absolutely love it. What do you think about this conversation about Isaiah Simmons' role change and what he's going to do and kind of what it says about just how strange the collection of players on this team actually is? I think that that speaks to. I don't want to call it a lack of understanding of how to find guys because I think that you can understand the sales pitch for every linebacker that they've drafted or second level defender that they've drafted.

I just think that they continue to put these guys in positions that are not natural to them. And now we're in, you know, I don't understand the sales pitch. I simply would not draft them in that range of the draft. I don't get, I don't understand why it took multiple seasons for them to look at Isaiah Simmons and say, hey, you know what you're best at? Playing out in the slot when you're in coverage and then blitzing off the edge. because that's what it sounds like to me when he described his role. I listened to his press conference right around when training camp started, and he said that the position name is starbacker.

And basically, the way he described it, it sounds like he's either going to be a nickel, a big nickel, when they want him to cover, or he's going to be the Jack, which would be the rushing outside linebacker when they want him to rush the passer. Well, hey, thanks for watching Clemson tape, because that's all he was at Clemson anyway. So that kind of stuff kind of blows my mind. I think that losing Jordan Hicks and having to rely on Dave and Collins,

that's something that I kind of have a little bit of a red flag up about because if you look at his snap count throughout the year last season, it was very clear that Vance kind of hit a hard line. He was like, all right, this development thing on the field is just not happening. And we've got to de-emphasize this guy's amount of snaps on the field because he just wasn't producing as a run defender, wasn't really giving them much as a blitzer, wasn't doing much for them in coverage. And I think that that level of needing to mature, I think, as a linebacker, it takes time. if you're being asked to do something that's not really natural to you.

And Vance Joseph doesn't run your run-of-the-mill three-four defense. Your run-of-the-mill bare front defense. He's sending pressures that guys don't. You know, he's running coverage shells like you mentioned, that most wouldn't in today's NFL. That stuff is a lot on your mind playing out of position for a lot of these guys. And I, again, if you don't have the guys up front to protect for these players, I don't know what you're supposed to do to protect them now. One last thing.

Which team do you think led the NFL and EPA gained on fumbled recoveries last season? It's got to be, though. It's got to be. Arizona Cardinals. So if we're trying to pick up some breadcrumbs about maybe why this won't be the same moving forward, I think that's a good place to start. The other thing that is intriguing to me about Simmons, apparently against the Bengals, they were running a decent amount of sim pressure stuff,

the type that we're going to see all over the league this year. Simmons is an interesting piece if that's how you want to start playing. If he can be somebody where he's coming, he's not coming, where's he coming from, what position is he playing, where are the four, that is a nice piece to be able to use if you want to transition to a little bit more of that where you're not technically blitzing. Their blitz rates are super, super high. That wouldn't count as a blitz, but you are bringing pressure in kind of a non-traditional way. And if this defense is one thing, boy, it is non-traditional.

Yes. All right. Let's get to our next one here. This one I think is a huge one. I'm probably going to put this second after the Ravens. Does Brandon Staley have the pieces he needs to run his defense in Los Angeles now? I would say this is probably as close as it'll get given the price of the players that he's brought in, right? I think that you're probably not going to get any closer than now.

What I'm kind of fascinated by is can he do the full-blown odd front thing with Jerry Tilleries still kind of having to be the third best interior defensive lineman there? It is Sebastian Joseph Day and Austin Johnson's presence, along with Khalil Mack on the edge, enough to protect what was, like, the worst run defense on the interior in the NFL last year. 53.2% defensive success rate against the run last year, dead last. It was awful. For reference, the Saints were around 70%. That's how much of a gap there was between them and the team that was at the top. I was watching, the charges are doing things you just don't see NFL teams do, which is line up in the 3-4, stay in the 3-4, and play single high.

So it almost looks like a 3-3-5, you know, like a 3-3 stack because you've just got the box super loaded and teams are still going for four to six yards of hop on that, you know, because they're just not able to hold the point on the interior. So I would say my guess is yes because I just have a belief in this approach to defense. And not only that, I have a belief in the body types that they brought in. I think that bringing these guys in allows them to do more with Derwin in terms of bringing him close to the line of scrimmage, which I think unlocks a lot for them defensively, especially if Asante can live on the outside. And I think that we saw some flashes of that

last season too. So that to me is something I'm really intrigued by. And I do think that if you're the Chargers, this is going to be as close as you're going to get to being able to execute what I think Staley really wants to do on the back end. Even Morgan Fox is a human body. Yes. Compared to what they had last season. And just having more of those guys is going to be really important. Kenneth Murray is good for your defense. He's not, even if he were healthy, which he isn't, and that whole thing has been a saga, he was not going to start for them.

It's going to be Drew Trankel and Kyle Van Nuoy, right. And there are some questions, obviously, like you don't want Kyle Van Nuoy in space in obvious passing situations. They're going to do everything they can to mitigate that. I think they're going to use him as a blitzer in a lot of those moments, use him near the line of scrimmage, try to play with the back and everything else on those defined passing moments. And I also think that we talk about Derwin moving down into the slot closer to the line

of scrimmage. I think using him as a dime linebacker is going to be huge for them because now they have the corner bodies. So if it's third down and you want to play dime and you want to move Derwin and have him play linebacker, you can have JT Woods and Assyr Adderly theoretically at safety. And now you can have a bunch of different corners because you can have Asante, Michael Davis, Bryce Callahan. Right now,

the way that I have read it, Bryce Callahan is a health thing, right? So he's missed at least six games in each of the last two seasons. I think right now he's their starting slot corner. But even if you lose him, you could bump Asante inside, and now you have Michael Davis and J.C. Jackson on the outside. If you want to play a little bit more man, you can have J.C. Jackson move inside.

You can do that as well if you're playing against a team that has a real number one receiver. So all of the flexibility they have on the back end, and I think the ability to hide those linebackers, when necessary because of the bodies they have back there is going to be huge. I think this team's going to play more man coverage this season than Staley has in the past. If you look at, so Fangio last year played a shitload of man, right? And if you're trying to think about where this type of defense goes, looking at Vic is typically a good place to start.

I think a lot of that was driven by injuries and necessity more than this is the next step in the evolution. But I do think that teams within this tree want to be able to play a little bit more man. when the situation calls for it. And I think the Chargers specifically have the players to do that on the back end. Yeah, I mean, that to me is kind of the Fangio tree 3-4 meta is when you're in those odd front looks, you want to play quarter, you want to play quarter quarter or half. When you get in the even front, if you're leaving the odd world and you're playing more

four-three defense, four-two-five defense, you do that to play more one-gap defense attacking, you know, in-your-face man-style cover-one or cover-three types of looks. That's just kind of the approach. I think for a lot of that kind of classic-esque three-four defensive approach, and I think that they do have the pieces to accomplish that. And the thing that I think is really interesting in this conversation, and it's funny that we haven't gotten to until now, and maybe you can speak more to it because I don't know if it's just general bear stink

that he's still trying to wash off. But I think it's easy to forget that Kalil Mack is playing opposite Joey Bosa now on the edge. Like that can be a very special pairing. to me. He's been had lingering injuries the last couple years and has not looked the same at times when he's been on the field. He apparently is healthy. And if he's healthy, he's only 31 years old. This guy is not far removed from being one of the best players in the entire league. And playing opposite one of the five best rushers, pure edge rushers in the league. A hundred percent. And those two guys can truly dominate games if they're both right. And what Mac gives them in the running game

is so important. Yes. Asking Staley about where he's kind of gotten flexibility from the players that he added. It's like Mac allows them to play nickel to add anything now because of how good of a run defender he is. And the flexibility that gives you on the back end, you feel it all start to come together. You feel all the pieces fitting in the right way. They got to go out and do it now. Right. But I do think that they have the bodies to make this thing work. And as an offshoot of this, we can have the same conversation about the Eagles. Yep. Right? They want to be a similar type of defense. They couldn't do it last year. For them, it was twofold. They didn't have the bodies. And that team was so set in playing one specific type of defense for the last however many years that you couldn't turn that quickly on a dime.

Now you bring in Jordan Davis. You have Asan Redick in there. It all starts to make a little bit more sense. They have a real second corner. The safeties are still a concern. But I do think they're getting closer to the way that Jonathan Gannon wants to play. And now because of that, it kind of becomes like a make or break year. Like, all right, you have the guys to instill your vision.

Let's see the vision. Yeah, let's see it now. And I think for both of those teams, to your point, what do we keep coming back to is the edges, right? You have the edge play that you need in order to do the rest that you want to do. It's edge plays, whether we're talking about pass rushers or corners. That's where this starts if you want to play this modern 3-4 defense, is you've got to play tight coverage on the perimeter, and you've got to be able to stop the runner control the edges with their outside linebackers.

And I think that they both have the pieces to do so. Jordan Davis and Philadelphia obviously helps with their interior defense. I think they addressed linebacker, which was a major issue for the Eagles last year. And the, you know, the charges are trying to do the same. You know, Drew Tranquil, Troy Reeder, are they world beaters for me? No, they're not. Kyle Van Nuys is not a world beater at this stage in his career. But they're live bodies that can do the job of playing as a 3-4 inside backer.

And those roles make a big difference. And you can take those guys off the field when you have the defensive backs that you need, to your point of putting Derwin inside, you know, as a dime back. hacker. A lot of that is also a credit to the development of a guy like a Naz Adderly. You know, that's something that I don't think the Eagles have available to them that the Chargers do. And I think that we'll see that little bit of, you know, kind of developmental delay between the Chargers and the Eagles as two defenses that I think are trying to approach it the same. Those pass-down packages that Brandon Staley can get to because of the body types he has

on the back end, I think can be more buried. You can do more with that. And I think the Eagles well, where I think the Eagles might have them beat is they might be able to stop the run, I think as well, if not better, because of some of the bodies they have on the inside. But I think that the charges will still be able to cover in a way that maybe the Eagles may not be able to because of their safety depth or lack thereof. Can you give me 30 seconds on why Hassan Redick occasionally dropping into coverage is not the end of the world? I think it's just a capability thing.

And maybe that's just kind of a credit to Vance Joseph and the Cardinals for playing a guy out position for a little while before he got to where he needed to be. But I think that in that three four defensive world, if you want to play a base package, you're going to need that outside backer to drop in the coverage every once in a while. He's got to drop and play that kind of quarter flat. And that adds layering to that defense. So that way, if you've got a roll coverage over the top of a struggling corner, you can do so. It helps them send backers. You know, you can run these little interior plug simulated pressures like you were mentioning when you have an edge guy who can handle a back coming out of the back field or can drop to a hook every once in a while.

We see that all the time in the college game, and a lot of that is by necessity because you're not going to have a dominant edge rusher. I don't think the Eagles have that, but in Brandon Graham and really Hassan Reddick, you have guys that you can kind of move around and reconfigure your defense around and still be able to get the effect of a four-man rush without it necessarily being two dominant edge players or edge bodies getting after the quarterback. I just wanted to have some people walking down Broad Street, like talk them down the first time when it happens because I think they might be go well. Oh, it's coming.

All right. Absolutely. All right. Next one here. Is the Brown's defensive line good enough for their secondary to matter? Because I'm very excited about the players that this team has in the back seven. They've got versatility. You know, this is a team that they're going to play dime as their base defense on third down with three corners and three safeties on the field because of the guys that they have.

There's been great development from that entire group. We can talk about that a little bit. The problem is we've talked about this, you and I on other shows. If you want to go back and listen to the tying up loose ends show that we did, I think we dug into a lot of this early when we recorded that show in late July. You have these teams that run these four-man fronts that want to play a lot of quarters coverage. And the teams that immediately come to mind are the Browns, the Jets, and the Niners, all teams that come from kind of a similar place.

The Niners have a pack of wolves on their front four. I mean, like rabid wolves. It's terrifying to watch. And that allows them to play like this. We love the edge guys for the Browns, right? They have complimentary skill sets. Miles Garrett's a super duper star. Do you think a common NFL fan could name me one starting

or one rotational defensive tackle on the Cleveland Browns? Can you? I only know that Tave and Brian is there because Justice and Charles McDonald's, Donald and I got a good laugh. I'm seeing that he was going to be logging a lot of snaps for this defensive line. Outside of that, to me, it's a lot of guys that you, if you told me these were fake madden generated names, I will believe you. Perry and Wendy sounds like a madden generated name.

Glenn Logan sounds like a madden generated name. Jordan Elliott sounds like a fake name. You know, and it's no disrespect to these guys. It's just at an NFL level, you know, you want to stop the run on the interior, especially on early downs. You need better bodies than I think that they have up front. I think that they'll be able to live it. They just might not be able to dominate in the ways that I know that you would like to see them.

I think that's something that they're capable of when you look at the back end for them. You know, they might have the best pair of corners in the NFL this season. I like John Johnson. I like Grant Delphit, you know, as safeties. I'm just so concerned that they're not going to have the same kind of early down success this year that they had last year. Because quietly over the course of the season, they were pretty good in terms of yards per play and success rate on first. second down last year, even playing a lot of four-down quarter stuff. I'm not sure if this defensive interior allows you to live in that same kind of world.

They were 21st and run defense success rate last season. It's not terrible, but it's not great. And I just want to see this secondary unleash because I do think it has a chance to be a really special group. And it's all continuity. And talking to Joe Woods and other people a couple weeks ago when I was there, the advantage that gives you where you're in year two, everyone's used to talking to each other. things that they're just picking up so much quicker now with, all right, I'm letting this go.

I feel totally comfortable letting this go. I know how this all fits together. I don't have to react to everything coming across my face because I know it's going to get picked up elsewhere. I asked somebody there on their defensive staff, I said, of all the young guys you have in the secondary, who's come the furthest in the last year? And he said, Grant Delpit. And I thought something was so interesting in that, you know, when you have these

safeties that the roles are a little bit mixed. You know, you don't have a box safety and a post safety anymore. You got to do a little bit of everything. So when Delpit was playing on the third level of the defense, when he was at LSU, they were taught to trigger hard on stuff coming underneath. That's the style that they played. And they almost had to kind of reprogram him to not do that. It's like you can't come down so hard on all that stuff coming in front of you.

We need you to be the roof on this thing. Right. And apparently he is really taken to that over the last years. He's gotten more reps and more experience doing it. And when you combine him taking a step with John Johnson having one more year within the defense and a group of corners with Greg Newsom inside now and Ronnie Harrison being able to step in there, I mean, they can solve pretty much any problem you want them to with the bodies they have on the back end. This really just becomes a question of what can you do on early downs if we're worried about teams just running it up down your throat?

the entire game. And then that puts a young guy that I have a lot of high hopes for in Jeremiah Usu-Koramoa in a tough spot too, because if you've got to ask him to be more of a downhill run-fit guy, that takes away from, I think, some of his best skill sets, which is the fact that, yes, he can show up every once in a while, but that's probably not the way that you want to play him. You want to play them as that quarters, overhang type of player on the weak side of the coverage or dealing with tight-ins, more in coverage and as a run-fitter. So there is a lot of stress. And we talk all the time, you know, I mention cascading effects almost every time I'm on the podcast when we talk about defense. But that's what it is.

It's a lot of if-then problem-solving on the defensive end. And if Coromoa can't be used more of a space player and has to be used as more of a box player, that I think, becomes a little bit more hairy. And that would be an indication that they really don't feel comfortable with Tavenman Ryan and Jordan Elliott and Tommy Togia, I think, as run defenders on the interior. year. You're looking at this group right now. Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Gritty Williams, John Johnson, Grant Delpit, Ronnie Harrison, Jeremiah, Wusu, Coramoa. That's the best collection of past defending back seven players in the league.

Yes. So if you can get to those situations, I think they're going to be really fucking good, but it's about getting to those situations. You got to get there. You got to get there. All right. Number seven here. Can the Packers take that step into the true defensive elite teams in the NFL?

What say you? I was almost going to turn this back around on you since you're there. What is your feel for... I wish we were having this conversation six hours later after I talked to some people here. My schedule got twisted around a little bit. I'm fascinated to hear their plan defensively and some of the moves that they made. My initial thought is I've still a little bit worried about the run defense because they were actively terrible last year. It was bad.

They were not that much better than the Chargers were. And I think that we're just kind of forgetting this because Kenny Clark is a really good player. So now what does T.J. Slayton look like in year two as just a space eater in there? Yep. What can they, I mean, him, Dean Lowry, Geron Reed is there. But Geron Reed was a nose tackle for one of the worst run defenses in the league last year in Kansas. Yeah. So I think that there's a little bit of wishful thinking into, all right, they can just be better there.

So that's what I want to see first and foremost. Outside of that, I'm fascinated by how Quayward. Walker and Devondry Campbell fit together. Yep. And we, you and I were talking about this as it relates to Rahim Morris, kind of those overload 5-0 looks that the Rams were using late in the season, where they'd have the linebacker walk down over the guard, and they'd have three defensive linemen opposite on the other side of the front

to create one-on-ones. Packers did that in the preseason. We saw the exact same look from them during one of their pre-season games. So now if you have quite, do you feel more comfortable playing two linebacker looks with Walker and Campbell in the game and can you have Walker in that length walked up into the B-Gap and using him in some of those situations this year

and letting Camberle be more of a coverage player? Do you flip them? Do you have Campbell walked up and letting Walker be more of a coverage player? The length that they have at linebackers is absolutely insane now and how they weaponize that is really interesting to me and then I think the biggest question after that is

how do the corners shake out? Does Rassul Douglas now play inside with Jayaeer Alexander coming back and how does he hold up there because if he's comfortable playing there and you have him and Stokes who we didn't even talk about Eric Stokes last year which is a good thing

quietly one of the best corners in the league last season and you have him and Alexander and Rassou I think that's going to be interesting or do they play Jaya Alexander inside a little bit more this season than they did so I think the bodies are there and that's not even mentioning what DeVante Wyatt can be for them in certain situations

so to me it's the biggest question question first and foremost is can the run defense hold up with the players that they have up front? That's the number one thing to me. I'm in the exact same boat as you. I think that their draft is kind of informed by them having the exact same questions of their defense going out and making their first few picks, Devante White and Clay Walker, outside of the Christian Walker pick to go to go kind of replace Devante Adams, quote unquote. I think that they want to address that too within their defensive front.

But I think that, you know, one of the other, another thing I was really interested to me is that they did not feel the need to replace as Adairius Smith. They did not feel that they needed to get another designated pass rush type. You know, they feel comfortable with Sean Gary and Preston Smith being more of those power rusher pocket crush types. You know, they were able to convert a lot of pressure into QB hits and QB hurries and Sacks last year. But their actual overall pressure rate throughout the year last year was not as high. So they must feel blitz. Right. They never. Almost never blitzed. Almost never blitz felt very comfortable just playing their too high, quarter shell, quarter, quarter half. And don't get me wrong, you can go on and turn their tape. And it's some of like the most beautiful coverage distributions that you'll see at the NFL level. Guys are just stuck to routes everywhere. So they certainly have the ability to get those coverage sacks. But do they have enough up front to get after the quarterback?

And then it's back to run defense for me as well. I love the big bodies that they have. But yeah, I've got to see it beyond just Kenny Clark being a great. nose tackle type. You know, can you get in and out of these different fronts and still be able to stop the run? And I think that if you do, then you get into passing situations and then I think they're going to eat people alive in those scenarios because of what you said in versatility with Devondry Campbell and Quay Walker. For a guy like Quay, who's 6'4, 230 pounds and comes from a Georgia defense that blitz their linebackers all the time anyways, those looks, those pressure looks are going to be

very natural, I think, and intuitive for him. So you can really do some interesting. things to generate four-man past rushes or play cover one and rush five and get after the quarterback that way. But just like the Browns, you've got to get to those scenarios. You have to get to those situations. That offense is probably not going to be as explosive on the other side of them this season. And I think it puts a little bit more stress on them to win on early downs and make sure they give Aaron Rogers as many opportunities as possible. Yeah, I think that we see them pressure more on third down this year. Yeah. I just think that it's the next step that a lot of people from this tree you're taking.

Even talking to people in Denver, they're going to have the same defensive DNA with the Fangio system now with Egerover that they had with Vic. But the Rams were bringing funky pressure stuff on third down last year. And I think that the pressure package the Broncos will use this season is a little bit different.

And I think that even that one play from preseason and Joe Barry looking at some of that ramp stuff and being like, how can I incorporate this? I do think that they're just going to force the issue a little bit more on third down than they might have last year. I think that's okay.

I don't think blitzing in those situations, especially if you're only bringing four, is you're doing that from a place of urgency. I think that's the next step in this and making yourself just a little bit harder to pick apart. I'm with you. All right. Next one here. Is the Dolphins Outwire style on defense sustainable post-Bryon Flores? So this question might be the one that has the least direct answer because we probably cannot know. until the regular season because of how specific that identity defensively was.

You know, there's still a lot up in the air about just how much Boyer was involved in building this out. You know, obviously none of the players have anything bad to say about them. And it seems like from everything that I've read and tried to research that he is a guy who played a piece in kind of developing what became what we knew as Brian Flores' defense last season. but it's hard to say that you can still just be that heavy cover zero or heavy cover one or cover three all the time and we're loading up the front, you know, or are always trying to send guys and get unblocked pressure as often as possible. That was unique enough as it was. I'd have to see it first from a different guy at the helm before I felt comfortable saying that that's exactly what it's going to be. Which isn't just opens a door to if it's not that, then what exactly is this defense in terms of a collection of parts?

what you would actually want to see them do schematically. I have to assume it's going to look a lot like it did in the last couple of years. Because why would you keep them? Right. If you didn't want to continue doing that sort of stuff, it's such a specific way of playing that if you want to play a different way, why wouldn't you just bring someone in from a different defensive system? So I have to assume they're going to want to do a lot of the same things.

And, man, you look at some of the numbers. It's crazy. It doesn't make any sense. They ran 84 cover zero snaps last year. The next closest team in the league was 56. You shouldn't be able to do that in the NFL. That number is cranked up a little bit because of that one Baltimore game. But even if you take out that one Baltimore game, they still probably lead the league.

So they did 28 more than the next closest team. That's bigger than the gap between Chiefs at 2 and the Falcons at 10. And it's the same for man coverage because if you look at man coverage rates over the last three or four years, it makes total sense when you think about it. broader level. As more teams are adopting this staley-fangio type of defense, more teams are going to be playing zone heavy defenses. And that's just the way that the trend is going. The Dolphins last season, they played man on 45% of their snaps. Again, the gap between them and the team at number two was the same as the gap between the team at 2 and 12. They are in their own world now,

especially now that Baltimore is not playing that way. And can you live that way? So far, they've done just fine. They got some decent turnover luck last year. They were third in EPA generated on fumbles, but they clearly want to play this way and they clearly want to live this way if they're bringing Boyer back. And I just don't know what that looks like

now that Florida's just gone. And the other fascinating thing to me is that them playing this way, I think, has actually led to them developing some of their young guys into being playable guys that I might not have had

the highest opinion on before. I would thought Christian Wilkins was decent. You could not have convinced me the last year he was going to look like that before the season started. He was a very good defensive line for them last season. Rayquan Davis is a guy, I think, that will add value to this defense being here. Emmanuel Agva has looked like a viable pass rush type, I think, as a part of being, you know, in this defense.

Not something that I would have ever imagined we'd see, you know, at this stage in his career. So they've definitely got a lot of gross from some of their front seven bodies by playing defense that way, which makes sense, you know, because you're always playing for penetration. backfield production, you know, trying to create those negative plays as often as possible. So I love the ethos behind what they're doing. So I do agree that they're going to have to do it that way. And I guess that since they have all the same pieces, we should probably be somewhat interested or optimistic about what this might look like. Because I thought that at different points last year, especially during the Winstreet,

you know, that defense was kind of holding that franchise up, you know, at different points. So I'm definitely interested to see what this looks like. And I think that if you continue to get growth from Christian Wilkins, Rayquan Davis plays well, you can maybe even lean away from some of that stuff and still be able to live up front because of what they've developed with some of their guys at defensive line and linebacker.

It has been lived by the sword, die by the sword. Yes. And they have lived by the sword a decent amount. But let's let's start, let's investigate and interrogate this a little bit. Okay. Here are the quarterbacks that the dolphins played last. season. Mac Jones twice.

Mac Jones twice. Josh Allen twice. 35 for Josh Allen the first time. And then they lost 26 to 11 the next time they played Josh Allen. Brady scored 45 on them. They beat up Carson Wentz. They beat up Trevor Lawrence. They beat up the Falcons offense.

It was one of the worst in the league. Davis Mills. We talked about the nightmarish game they had to play against Lamar Jackson. Zach Wilson twice. Sam Darnold. Daniel Jones. Whoever was playing a quarterback for the Saints in week 16. I'm not even going to look it up. It's not worth it. I mean, this is not a good

collection of teams. Even a good offense like Baltimore had no answers for what they did. It was a very specific sort of way that they could pick them apart. So I understand I wanted to go this way, but I think there's a reason that fewer teams are wanting to live and die by the sword and the way that dolphins seem willing to right now. It's really hard to do when you're not seeing bad quarterbacks. I watch that same game. And I watched that Giants game. Those games were awful. They were difficult to You're a better man than me. I don't feel any better for doing it. Trust me, you didn't miss out.

So I am kind of fascinated. You've got the Chargers, you know, with the great quarterback. You've got the Packers on schedule this year. You've got the 49ers, which is one of the best schemes in the NFL. You know, overall. You've got the Vikings. Another great scheme. You've got the Bengals on schedule.

The bills twice. So there could be some regression just based on who you're seeing in terms of opponents. So I don't know which way this goes other than the same. that if they continue to keep, you know, this level of defense or this style of defense that they've had over the last few years under Brian Flores, it's probably enough to still hang around the 16 to 18, 15 to 18ish range, which I guess we should be happy with. Because again, if you just look at the collection of names, outside of that pair of corners in Javon Holland, there's not a whole lot to be in love with anyways. And that maybe is why you have to play this way. Right. And just because

you don't have the guys to maybe play any other way. You built it in this very specific manner. You have corners that are really good at playing man. Like if your best player is Zavian Howard and Jafon Holland, which are probably their two best defensive players right now, this makes sense to play this way. Playman, because John is everywhere else.

Exactly. I think I get it, but I just think it's a dicey way and a dangerous way to live at this stage of things. So Beller just said, Ian Book was the quarterback for the Saints in that game. He was 12 of 20, 12 of 20 for 13, five, two picks, you've sacked eight times.

So good for you on watching that one. I wish I could say there was something notable that happened in that football game, but I think we'd both know that that would be a lot. It was a Monday night game, and I chose to perform some self-care rather than watching that game. All right. Two more here very quickly. Do we think the Chief's defense is good enough to keep them atop the AFC? Or can they do enough to keep them near the top of the AFC?

So is the more direct way to ask that question? is George Carl Laptist and Trinkman Duffy good enough? Brian Cook, who's going to be their third safety? So all the rookies that they drafted with the Tyree Kill Hall, are they enough to kind of keep this team afloat defensively? It's hard for me to say that in year one, man. That's asking a lot out of rookies. I agree, but they're going to need them to be.

I can't possibly see it. And I love what I've seen from George Carl Laptist in the preseason. I think that his first step, his explosiveness, has actually been a pleasant surprise for me as a guy who was a fan of his. coming out of Purdue, I still am just not comfortable just saying, hey man, we're going to drop you in

and you're going to be like a real NFL pass rusher from the beginning. Trent McDuffie is a guy that, you know, because of the losses they've had a defensive back, he probably should be in the slot. I don't think that they can afford to only play them in the slot this season. That's another thing that I'm really not comfortable with

with them defensively. And then what that means for Spags. When Spags was in New York, we knew him as a, hey, man, I can rush for and play tight coverage on the back. in and you just got to deal with the fact that we've got this fearsome foresum up front. They've never had that in Kansas City and he's been able to make up for that with all those crazy safety rotations, playing cover two, playing cover one and using Tyron Matthew as the robber

and doing all these different things with the defensive backfield and just saying, hey, you can't run the ball on us because our offense is putting up 28 whether you want them to or not. I don't know if that's the same kind of world that they can live in. and I'm not sure without those bodies on the defensive backfield and bringing in rookies to have to take in more traditional roles, whether or not I'm comfortable saying that they can have a contending level defense for as much as I love Patrick Mahomes and the rest of this offense. Very quickly, what is swapping out Justin Reed and Tyra Matthew do? How do you have to change what you can be defensively? I think that you can't do the same things that they did out of the nickel package in terms of really what that means is that you can't hide guys the same way that you can't. could when Tyrant Matthew was there.

They could hide Sorensen with Matthew on the field because you can run all those different coverage to cover two rotations and you can put Sorensen wherever you want to within the defense. You know, you can do some different things in your pressure packages, which is something that Spags has had to adopt a lot of playing a lot of these like trap coverages where you can send a Sorensen, you can send your worst defensive back. You can send Charverius Ward. It was actually a really good blitzer, you know, and rotate the defense behind you.

them and still be able to deal with, you know, some of the things that might cause you trouble. Without that, again, you're playing more traditional defense. This defense for Spags in this year, I think, is going to look more like what it was with New York, sans the front four guys. You don't have your version of Justin Tuck and Chris Jones, but you don't have an O. C. your manure.

You don't have a Jason Pierre Paul right now. And I don't know if that defense works the same if you don't have those types of players. Those weird designer cover twos. Nate mentioned a little bit of this on the offensive show that we did. I think we're going to see a lot more of that. We see a lot more of just weird designer cover two from teams around the league this year. It's just like one little change up on defense. I think that's definitely something that's coming.

And he was second in cover two steps since he took over the job in 2019. So like that's been a major, major piece of this defense. For the chiefs, they've done a lot of it for the last few years. I think other teams are going to start stealing some of those ideas. Because if we can just a different way to kind of play those own coverages that quarterbacks aren't used to seeing. How can we get to something where maybe it's a little bit funky for them to understand? Last one here.

What do we think the Colts look like under Gus Bradley? So my thing is like, can he get enough out of this edge rush with Yonick and Gakway and Quitty pay to intimate what he had in Las Vegas last year? Because what it was in Las Vegas last year, in spite of everybody and their mom being able to turn on the TV and tell you exactly where guys were rushing for them, what coverage they were playing and how they wanted to defend offenses. They were still in the top 10 in yards for play allowed,

and yards per attempt, you know, in the passing game, they had the 10th view as yards per rush allowed. To be able to accomplish that, what I think was maybe one of the most vanilla defensive schemes that we have in the NFL, you're only able to do that when you get dominance up front. So that's where

I think a lot of this kind of lies is can DeForest Buckner, Yonik, and Gakway, and Quitty Pay be three pro bowl to, you know, or maybe one of these guys be an all pro level and the other two be pro bowl level players in order to paper over a defensive secondary outside of Kinney Moore that I'm still not in love with. I think the players on this defense are better than the ones that he had in Las Vegas last year. I like that. Yes, I would be open to that argument for certain.

I mean, Stefan Gilmore. I mean, Stefan Gilmore is apparently healthy and I think that he's having him compared to the corners that they had in Vegas last year. Brandon Faison played for the Raiders last year. It's just a one-for-one tradeover, right? I think Julian Blackman is hopefully in line for a big season. I think Julian Blackman is a good player. They are very excited about where he's at right now compared to even where he was a year ago. And you dropped the Forrest Buckner in there instead of Jonathan Hankins or Solomon Thomas, whoever they had.

You have two very much run backers, one who's an all pro linebacker. And we talked about this with this defense all the time. You need the guys to run it. Yep. They have some guys. They kind of got the dudes, man. I think there's reason for optimism here. I mean, the Raiders finished 15th in defensive DVOA last season,

a weighted defensive DVA. The Raiders finished 15th. They traded for Denzel Perriman for a late round pick swap in August. He was like a huge part of what they did. Corey Littleton played a ton of snaps for this team last year. The Panthers signed in for two million bucks. Jonathan Abram played a ton for the Raiders last season. And I mean, all of these guys that are getting 600, 700 snaps,

I think there are upgrades all along the Colts defense. I'm just concerned about how stagnant it is and just kind of how stale a lot of the ideas have gotten. But I do think that this could still be the 12th best defense in the league based on the sheer level of talent that they have. I agree. And I think that this comes back to the same, I think a similar question that we would have with the Chiefs is, what benchmark do you actually have to clear when your offense is what your offense is? I think that that Colts offense can be, and I know I will just listening to the podcast with you and Nate, earlier this morning, I think that this Colts offense can land in the top seven in DVOA.

That's Super Bowl contending level offense. So what actual benchmark do you have to clear defensively? It was the same thing I'm wondering with the Chiefs. I don't think that Gus Bradley has to have the Legion of Boom in order for this to be a real defense. He just needs this front four. And I think that some of the upgrades they have in the back end compared to Las Vegas to just perform at a decent enough level to be able to keep them in that 12 to 15. range. And if they're good enough to do that, that's certainly good enough to win this division. And once you get home games in the playoffs, I trust Matt Ryan. I trust Frank Reich. You know,

I've seen these guys do it before. And I think that if you can live in that world, even as a defense that doesn't want to send a lot of pressure, that's not going to do a lot of variable things in terms of the back end, they probably have enough to be a thorn in the side of every team that they play this year. And I think that that's a really good spot for them to be in. I feel comfortable dropping this nugget. When they were looking at Bradley and they were trying to figure out who they wanted to hire. They actually talked to Vic Fangio about Gus Bradley's defense and about if there are holes in it that we should be worried about and all of this. And Vic said, you know, there are elements of it that are just kind of an inverted version

of what I do and that you absolutely can play this way and still survive. And that was a huge kind of box for them to check. And they just love the way he connects with the players. He just is one of those guys that people love playing for. There are reasons that all these guys follow him around. I mean, you still, as a free agent, have to decide where you're going. And I think it sends a very clear message that so many of these people have said, I'll follow him from stop to stop. And that's happened a ton based on some of the guys he's played with in San Diego and then

then with the Raiders and now even with the Colts. So I think that there are reasons for them to be excited even if I do think the ceiling is kind of capped with this sort of defense. Yep. And I've been saying this since the hire happened and I will stand by this. Gus Bradley will be Quitty Pays best friend. If you are looking to develop yourself up front, Gus Bradley is the guy.

I don't know what it is or how, but he has found a way every place that he's been to absolutely maximize these guys that have interesting skill sets, you know, are clear certain athletic benchmarks. He has been able to get high levels of production out of these players at every stop that he's been at, and I don't expect it to be any different,

especially having to force Buckner on the inside and Yannick opposite you. That's a great, situation to be in in general as a young edge rusher and then to have a defense that I think really liberates you to go out and create and create plays for yourself. This is going to be the perfect type of scenario for Quitty Pay to grow in. And I expect Colts fans to be really, really happy with him as a former first round pick. A few defenses we did not talk about. Niners, Rams, Seahawks. We hit those hard in the Loose Ends podcast from 2021 that we recorded in late

July if you want to go check that out. Extensive conversations about those three teams. two teams we did not mention. I just want to see if the Jets can be better. Like the idea that Robert Sallow is the head coach of that team, and they finished dead last in defensive DVOA, the players that they added with sauce, even the tissue players like Jordan Whitehead, can they be a little bit better this year

with all the additions they also made up front? And the other team is, how real is the Titans blueprint from last year? That was another one that I was really on the edge of asking before we got on the podcast. I'm so fascinated by that defense. I'm sure. And I, I,

I have had multiple defensive play callers around the NFL. Defensive play callers that I think are very smart, very creative. Ask them, what is your favorite thing, the most interesting thing you watched this offseason when you were studying? And they said the Titans simulated pressures, man. And so I think that the Titans have really tapped into something about where defensive football is going in the league. And whether they can kind of continue pushing that stuff forward with the players that they have, that's one that we did not hit on, but definitely is in the back of my mind. All right. That's all we got.

Appreciate you guys listening. Deante, appreciate the time. We will be back tomorrow with Deontes good friend, Seth Kalina. Talking about some guys in new situations around the league. Some of these are quarterbacks that had players traded away. Some of them are receivers that were traded away. Really excited to dig into that conversation with Seth. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice.

Please subscribe to the athletic. athletic.com slash football show. We'll be back tomorrow. Appreciate you guys listening. Talk to you soon. This was the athletic football show.