The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The 12 guys who can swing the 2023 NFL season

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Any reasonable NFL observer saw a wide range of realistic outcomes for Jalen Hurts one year ago at this time. Hurts ended up playing like an MVP, and the Eagles nearly won the Super Bowl. Who could be this year's version of Hurts? In other words, who are 2023's biggest wild cards? Robert Mays and Bill Barnwell of ESPN offer up their candidates on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mike on Twitter: @billbarnwellSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThe Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's our old friend from ESPN. It's Bill Barnwell. Barnwell, how you doing, buddy? Mays, we're in the thick of it. Oh, we sure are.

There's no escaping it anymore. No pretense of summer. No days off to look forward to. We're in the training camp grind. Some of us, fortunately for me, more than others. You don't have to tell me that we're in the thick of it. I was in Spartanburg, South Carolina today.

It was like 88 degrees. It just feel the sweat dripping down my back. I'm sweating through my shirt. Very jealous of Greg Alman, formerly of the athletic who now covers the NFC South for Fox. Greg is a grizzled veteran at this. He's got his bucket head on like a smart man. I'm just sweltering out there in the heat.

But it's good. It's good to be back doing this. It's good to be back having football conversations. Also, the Panthers this morning. I'm currently in Atlanta. I'm going to spend a couple days with the Falcons very much looking forward to that. It's just good to be back talking ball with everybody and seeing familiar faces, some new faces. It's a fun time a year, even if we are definitely back to it.

Do you feel the power of being at Falcons Camp where if you literally tweet out Kyle Pitch catching a football, you can move his like fantasy football ADP up three rounds with the right video? I am not engaging in the fantasy discourse this year. Camp hype fantasy discourse. I dipped my toe into it for one day last summer with Alan Robinson, and it wasn't even something I saw. It was things told to me by multiple people on the Los Angeles Rams coaching staff, and it got so much steam.

And then the season that Alan Robinson had, I'm done. I am not talking about buying into anything with training camp hype anymore. What a hearty podcast. Oh, I'm not going to dip my toes in the fantasy water. What, come on. Fantasy is fine. I'm down to do, I'm down to talk about it. I'm down to talk about what other people were putting out there.

No longer am I going to be the one that's doing it. How long would you let me do the podcast in that British accent before you stop the recording? At this point, who really cares? I wouldn't care at this point. I thought it was pretty good, frankly. It actually was pretty good. I didn't appreciate it. I felt it was a little bit mean, but I did appreciate just how spot on it happened to be.

You spent a lot of time over there, so you know what you're doing at this point. I do. I too. a situation that does relate to fantasy football that I believe we should discuss before we get to our main topic today. could change how the 2023 season unfolds. I think there's a lot of guys that we didn't really talk about when we discussed the stakes with Lindsey Jones last week, some other shows that we're going to do. So that's going to be our topic today. But what you're alluding to is the bit of news from Broncos camp earlier this week that Tim Patrick reportedly has an Achilles injury that I assume will likely take him out for the season.

It's been confirmed torn Achilles that's done for the year. Brutal stretch of luck for Tim Patrick. I was at Broncos camp last summer when he tore his ACL. It was a very sad day. Only real saving grace that he had already gotten paid. He had got that an extension. But it still is unbelievably rough luck for Tim Patrick. I'm curious what you think are the implications of this.

For me, they had drafted Marvin Menz in the second round. I didn't know what Tim Patrick's role was going to look like with a new coaching staff coming in. Things seemed a little bit in flux there at the receiver position. So what do you think is notable specifically about the Tim Patrick injury? I believe it changes the Broncos plans for this off season, which still had a little bit of runway left to go with, where you look at their depth chart on offense. So we're going to leave running back aside, but at wide receiver, they had Cortland Sutton, who has been the subject of some trade talks. They have Jerry Judy. They have Marvin Mims.

Not only did they draft in the second round with Shun Payton's first pick in this track, but they traded up to get Marvin Mims. they made him a priority to be part of this roster. They had KJ. Hamler, who is now, I believe, on the non-football injury list. Another player who's had trouble staying healthy. Marcus Calloway is there. Little Jordan Humphrey in terms of the former Saints are there. And then they also went out in addition to having Greg Dulcich a tight end, who was very exciting for stretches last year, as exciting as anybody could be, I suppose,

in that Broncos offense. But they signed Chris Mannhurt, who's going to be their blocking tight end. They trade for Adam Troutman. They have Aberraway Bunum on the back of the roster. I mean, they're deep at wide receiver and tight-in were extremely deep before the Patrick injury. And so I've sort of been of the volition all off-season that they had one too many guys at wide receiver. And that if Patrick had stayed healthy, they were going to trade somebody. Obviously not Mims.

I don't think Judy, but either Sutton or Patrick to a team. that needed the wide receiver. And now it feels like if you're Cortland Sutton or someone who's investing in Cortland Sutton in fantasy football hoping he's going to be that sort of big body target that Sean Payton offenses have had since 2007 with Marquis Colston, it kind of feels like Sudden could now have the lead role to be that guy. Before we dig into that, you talk about Greg Dolchish being exciting in that offense last year as exciting as you can be. How much of the Greg Dulture's excitement is based around the hair and the mustache. Is it 30%? Is it 50%? Like, how high does it go for you? I mean, as a follically challenged man, I'm not going to lie.

It's way up there. I'm not sitting here, you know, desperate to see Chris Mannhurt's play in 23. And I think Chris Bannhirts is a good player. Certainly one of the best football players to come out of Kineshous College, but not a man who has long flowing locks the way great Dulcich does. He has, he actually has the, um, he has the hair from the, I think you should leave sketch where Tim Robinson gets the wrong haircut. It's the dog. Yes, the dog hair. It's good. Not going to lie. I'm impressed. jealous, but, um, you know, Greg Dolstitch could be that guy. He could play that role. Marquis Colston, of course, God, the famous fantasy controversy of 2007 when Marquis Colston was a tight end. It was 2006. It was 2006. And the reason I remember this vividly is

because it was my, oh, you're right, it was 2007. No, it was 2006. It was the fall of 2006 because it was my freshman year college. I vividly remember this. Yes, it was the fall of 2006. Markees Colston listed a tight end, I think on Yahoo. I don't believe ESPN had listed. Yahoo is correct, because we were playing Yahoo at the time.

Just an absolute, if you thought the Tason Hills thing last year was bad, this was significantly worst. Marcus Colston was awesome that year as a seventh round rookie, 70 for 10, 38, and eight touchdowns. Anyway, to get off memory lane here, it felt like there was a move for the Broncos to make here, and now it feels like they're not inclined to make that move or shouldn't be inclined to make that move. I understand why you think that, but I'm wondering if they were going to make that move, would they have already made it? It's all this first. Are you going to get the value you want for one of these guys? Let's say your team that theoretically is interested in Cortland Sutton, a team that has a wide receiver need.

Coral and Sutton has a $14 million-based salary this year. So there aren't that many teams on August 1st that have budgeted to absorb a contract like that. Maybe the Broncos pick some of it up. Maybe a team signs him, converts some of that into a signing bonus. You're not worried about what that's going to do to you down the road because there are no more guarantees. Whatever the funny math ends up being, I still feel like if they were going to do that, that's a move for April, May, not for August 1st when you're just not going to get the returns that you're looking for. Probably not. I think it would have been a, you know, we're hoping we make it through trading camp with everyone healthy. And of course, now they've proven that that's not the case. But I think it would have taken them eating money. It would have had to eat probably $6, $7 million, which is a lot. But this is a team that frankly needs all the draft capital they can get, given that they trade it up for Marvin Mims and don't have a lot of draft capital after their trades the past couple of years. But either way, whether he was going to be on the roster,

or not, whether Tim Patrick was going to be playing that role or not, it's just a bummer to see a player go down with a torn ACL and a torn Achilles in back-to-back seasons. I think Strowing Shepard with the Giants went through the same back-to-back injuries this past couple years. And Tim Patrick has been a player who I think we've all seen can be a useful player when given the opportunity to get snaps. So I think that's been a bummer. But for a Broncos team, that was, I believe, one of the most injured teams in football last year, this sort of feels like an ugly reminder that 2023, even with a new coach, might not be all that different from 2022. Yeah, you find some solace in drafting Mims in the second round and having some depth at that position.

But they're very different, though. They're very different, of course. And how those roles end up shaking out within the offense, I think, is kind of a mystery. You know, is Judy going to be somebody who plays in this slot? Is Judy going to be more of a vertical target like he was last year? What actual kind of specific roles do all these guys play within the offense is a question. I still think that one of the other factors, though, when weighing whether or not they'd want to trade one of these guys. This team wants to win football games this year.

Yeah. I mean, think about all the money they spent in free agency. They can move on from Cortland Sutton after this year. So I just think that they kind of have their pedal to the floor because Sean Payton wants to back up the checks that his mouth is currently writing and has been with a lot of the actions that they've done all the way back to March and free agency. So I, even with Patrick on the roster, I still assume that they were going to keep everybody and just see what they could do with this group in the short term. There's a bit of Greg Ward corollary here to me. Like my Greg Ward theory that no matter what the Eagles added receiver,

inevitably by December, Greg Ward will be their number one receiver for like a quarter of football. There's the Kendall Hinton theory here, which is because Kendall Hinton sacrificed himself for that one game of quarterback, the world will bend to a universe where Kendall Hinton will be taking snaps regularly as a third wide receiver in this offense by December by hook or crook. He's earned it, baby. He does. He has. No question. All right.

Let's get into our list here. These are the guys that we think could potentially swing the 2023 season one way or the other based on their performances. You are the guest here. I'm going to let you start us off. Who is your first guy you want to talk about? Can we put a number out there first before we start? How many do you have on your list? Sort of five, but really like 12.

Okay, sort of five really like 12. I have eight. So I'm half between you. How many of the people on my list do you think will be on your list? What's the over under? One and a half? Two and a half, I would say, is the over and a half? I would say is the over and a half. I agree. Okay. Should I start with a really obvious one? Sure. I'll go with the quarterback of the Miami Dolphins. So I had him on another show that we did. I already talked about him. So that's why he's not on my list, but I'm not surprised that you're throwing him out first because I think it's totally fair. I think you have to start with two at Tango Vowloa. I've made the case in my column last month, I guess now technically for ESPN, that he's the only player in football with $100 million writing on this season. Last year, that was doing hurts. This year, it's two where he has a fifth year option for about $23 million next

year that he'll get either way. If he plays well, he's going to get $120 million guaranteed. There's little to say about him because it's just a question of can he stay healthy, I guess, but maybe the question after out there for you is, that's what I'm going to bring up is, like, I think it's being framed in a lot of places, and I think I feel this way myself. is if he stays healthy, they're going to get the guy they had last year, the offense they had last year, they're going to be that explosive. It sounds like you don't feel like that's the case. We talked about this with Sando on the quarterback tier shows that we did earlier this week. Go look at Tua's numbers in that four-game stretch down the back half of the season.

Starting with the Niners, I believe it was in week 13. Niners, Chargers, and Bill's and then the Packers game was the last one that they played. It was that four-game stretch. During that stretch, this is probably a stat I'll repeat a bunch of times over the next week, he, I believe, was 30th of 32 quarterbacks and EPA per dropback over that stretch. The dolphins were dead last in passing success rate over that stretch. This is with him playing. So this binary of if he's healthy, this is one of the five best passing offenses in the league. If he's not, this is a team that's going to struggle.

I think it's a little too reductionist. I don't think that that's actually indicative of the reality they faced in the second half of last season. I don't disagree, but I also think I'm a little more optimistic than it sounds like you are. I'm optimistic about their ability to sort through this because I think that they're well coached. I think they have a lot of talent. But I do think that there are more complicating factors involved here than other people are making it out to be. And it's that he just wasn't very good for a stretch of last season when he was a lot of. on the field. So one of those factors is the presence of Taran Armstead, who is their only good

offensive tackle who got hurt in the second half. Got hurt. You know, you could throw that out there, depending on how you feel about some of their young guys. But he gets hurt in the second half of that Texans game. Tua, they're cruising. Tua starts getting sacked. He gets sacked like five times over the course of like the next three drives. And they take him out of the game because they don't want to get hurt. The next week he plays against the 49ers, not exactly the team I'd want to face without my left tackle. He comes back for the Chargers, Bills, and Packers games, but he was not 100%. And that Packers... I rewatched that Chargers game last week, and he was not right. And that Packers game, I think, is important and, you know, sort of important to think about

the context of what happened. Two or through three interceptions in that game. And they all happened on the final three drives of the game, which was presumably, or from what I remember at least, all after he suffered his final concussion of the season. He was playing much better before he suffered that concussion, which I think is certainly fair to expect. But, you know, not to say that that solves all the problems, those two explanations, but I think they explain some of the difference between Tua in the first six weeks of the year and the two we saw in that four-game stretch, which was not as effective. The Armstead point is a very good one.

He did not look right in the Chargers game, and I think that did affect them. I get the point you're making about the interceptions, but dig one step deeper within the numbers. That's going to hurt the EPA numbers because those are really, really negative plays. That EPA number is actually lifted, though, by how explosive they still were over that stretch.

Oh, for sure. They still had the highest explosive play rate in the NFL in these four games that I'm talking about, but they weren't consistent. They weren't in any sort of rhythm offensively because the teams that they were playing against were being really, really physical against them. So I do think that the three interception performance in Green Bay is kind of weighing some of this stuff down, but that doesn't explain the league worst success rate that they had over that stretch. No question. Because we're not worried about living on the polls.

So I still am worried about the down-to-down in-rhythm efficiency of what this offense looks like in a world where teams are more willing to challenge them. the way they were down the stretch last year. When he can't play on time, what does he look like? That is my big, big question. So is that a Tua question to you, or is that a broader offensive construction question to you? I think it's a little bit of both because I do think he is not somebody who's going to make the amount of second reaction plays you want from an elite quarterback, which probably raises the question of whether he's worth a deal like that even if he does stay healthy. But I also think that there are certain elements of the offense they need to be better at.

talking to a defensive coach who played against the Dolphins last year in that stretch, said we wanted to make them run the football. Not because they were a bad running team. If you look at some of the efficiency numbers, they're actually a pretty good running team just because the circumstances they're running into are always very good. This is a 21 personnel team who plays light boxes all the time. If they want to run it, they can be efficient running it,

but they just didn't run the ball at a very high clip last year. So are they willing to stick with that in stretching? as kind of a stabilizing force to find some of that down-to-down consistency this year. I think the answer is probably, yes, because I think they're aware of this problem. Yeah, so to your point, second longest average yards to go on third down of any team in football last year nestled between the Jets and the Broncos, which are not exactly effective offenses last season, per my memory. The running game is going to have to be a bigger part of their offense year to take some

of the pressure off of Tua, but I think their running backs have to be. be better. You look at the rush yards over expectation numbers. Chase Edmonds was like the worst running back in football when he was with the dolphins before he got traded away. Jeff Wilson was not great. Riham Moster was not great. We don't know if Devon A chain's going to be like a focal running back in the offense as a rookie. You don't know if he has the ability to pull it off with his size. Like this is a team that has been, even with a diminished version of Dalvin Cook by the numbers, absolutely a team that could benefit from Dalvin Cook. being on this roster.

I also think that their offensive line hopefully will be better and healthier this year. When was the last time we did not say that about the dolphins before the season maze? You're telling me. I understand that there's a reason to be skeptical about it. Was Brandon Albert on this offense? Who also famously had trouble staying healthy.

If Austin Jackson could be healthy for a good chunk of the year, if Liam McIntyberg is better in year two of this system, that's what they're banking on. They're banking on better health up front. And these young guys, Austin Jackson and Liam Beckerberg specifically, their development plan has been a disaster. All the offensive line coaches this team has sorted through, the different plans they've had offensively. This is the first time that they've been in the same offensive system for two straight years. The offensive line coach is different.

They changed that again. But this is the first time they've been in the same system. So is there a little bit more continuity? Can they build on some of the elements of what the offense looked like last year? I have faith in the staff to kind of work through some of these issues. I just don't think it's as black and white as if he's healthy, they're just going to roll the way that some people are making it out to be. It's a very fair point.

Okay. I'm just talking about offensive linemen. I know you're going to bring one up. Give me the offensive lineman from your list. I actually don't have any offensive linemen on my list. What? I have one. So I'll save mine.

It's funny. I was thinking about which one. You know what? So I have an offensive lineman is like a secondary piece of another one. that I'm going to mention. Okay. Okay. So,

so I'll do that a little bit further down. The first people who came to mind when I wanted to have this conversation were the Eagles coordinators. Oh, come on. I, I, I was quoted players for this analysis. I didn't do any coaches.

Oh, I did people. So I got to, I only have three coaches. I, I only have, I have two and a half coaches. Okay.

Three and a half coaches. So, that's fair. You said pivot point guys. I said guys. Pivot point guys. They're guys. It's fair. These coaches are guys.

You cannot deny that. If you're right. This is a lot of change for a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. And there hasn't been a lot of change in the personnel on either side of the ball. They lose Javon Hargrave, but they have a succession plan already in place with the two Georgia guys. They lose a linebacker. Kobe Dean is in place for that exact reason, you know, some change in safety. But I think that they can weather all of that person.

those personnel shifts. The guys in charge of these two units being different, I think is a major question that you have to answer. Brian Johnson, their new offensive coordinator, is someone that they've been grooming for this role. I think they've always known that this was possible, that if things worked out the right way that Shane Steichen would be gone. And I talked to a head coach recently about upcoming kind of emerging head coach candidates

around the league, and Brian Johnson is one of the first people out of his mouth. I think that he has a good reputation, and I think that there's optimism about what he can do in this. role. But we don't know. Until you've seen somebody do this, play calling is an art. And at least on the offensive side of the ball, there's always the option to just let Nick Siriani take over if this is a disaster and goes poorly. On defense, there's no such option. Sean Desai is taking over for Jonathan Gannon. He spent last year on the Seahawks staff kind of helping oversee a pretty significant shift

schematically and what the Seahawks were doing. They started adopting some of the more Fangio principles and a lot of the things that Desai did during his lone season as the Bears offensive coordinator. And there are some things, excuse me, defense coordinator. And there's some things to carry over, you know, Jonathan Ganon, the boxes he wants to play in and, you know, some of the front

stuff, I assume is going to be similar. But a lot of the coverages that Desai favors are different than what this team did last year. And I actually think that, I think that there's a world where they're better defensively. Which John Desai is the defensive coordinator than they were last year. But these are still questions until we get answers.

to them. And for a team with very real Super Bowl aspirations, swapping out, it's two coordinators in a single season, that is a major question mark for me. I agree. I will be honest with you. My only comment about the offense is that it's really hard for me to see Brian Johnson as the offensive coordinator and not imagine a guy in a newsboy cap on the sideline calling plays like Brian Johnson from ACDC. Hopefully, that's not going to be the case. Hopefully, that's not going to be the But I think the defensive side of the ball is essential here. And I think to be honest, you're sort of putting aside those concerns about personnel a little too quickly for me.

I mean, this is a defense that we know. They don't value linebackers. And they're either going to value cornerbacks or safeties, but not both. They're going to pick one or the other, and that's where they're going to spend their money. They've lost five starters on the defensive side of the ball. Javon Hargrave. They lost both their starting linebackers and both their starting.

safeties from a year ago. And those were positions at linebacker in safety, even though they don't value them, those were positions the Eagles really struggled to fill in 2021 with Gannon as an defensive coordinator. It felt like they were playing very conservative defense. They weren't breaking on anything. It was very much a weak and throw on them over the middle of the field. It was easy to hit chunk plays on them in those spots.

And I mean, I hope Nicole Bedeen is a good player. they have Nicholas Morrow, maybe in a starting role at linebacker, which, I mean, he knows the scheme, I guess, but Drell Edmonds, who was okay player, not great in Pittsburgh, and read Blankenship, who the numbers, I believe, went down dramatically on defense, and they got worse, I should say, when Blankenship was on the field a year ago. I think he was the one who took kind of a subpar angle on that Christian Watson touchdown that goose up Jordan loves numbers for the Packers. There was a long touchdown against the Cowboys, too, in a game where he was playing. And, I mean, having him as your third option, maybe they'll get Sidney Brown or look at Kayvon Wallace and there more. And they could always, I mean, they traded for Johnson like a week before the season last year. They could get somebody late. But I look at that, and I don't feel safe.

Like, I'm a little concerned that we're hand-waving that away and saying, oh, they'll be fine. Maybe they will be. They have, obviously, plenty of talent up front, but they're not as deep up front as they were. A year ago, I understand having, you know, Jordan Davis playing a bigger role. I understand Jelan Carter coming in is the best possible replacement for Javan Hargrave, but he's probably not Javarn Hargrave, especially as a rookie. So to me, I think, you know, it's going to be harder for Sean to decide to be that guy in year one, even if maybe he is a better coach schematically than Gannon.

I don't know that that's actually going to play out that way because of the personnel shift that they had on the defensive side of the football. Similar to the two, a thing, I think that you're right. Maybe some people are framing it in too simplistic of terms, and those are bigger concerns than we think. But even if we can see that the personnel is going to be okay, I still think there's a question about what Desai is going to look like in the role.

And he did a pretty good job as the Bears' defensive coordinator two years ago. Yeah, they finished 12th and past defense DVOA with Kendallville Doors, their number two corner. Like Alex Oglertree played 700 snaps for that team, and they were still a pretty, they were above average past defense. I think that says a lot. He's playing with much better personnel on this team, no matter your concerns at linebacker in safety,

then he played with in 2021. And I think that's worth noting. Just a couple of key schematic differences. I hadn't looked them up before this, so I figured it might as well talk about them. The Eagles ran quarters on about a quarter of the early down snaps, like 25% last year, which is the third highest rate in the NFL.

The Seahawks, it was cover six that they were running a lot of that on early downs, which is quarter quarter half, the second highest rate in the league. The Bears were right in line. with that in 2021. So we're thinking about coverage-wise what might be different for Philly this year compared to what the Eagles did last year. That might be one of them.

And something else I thought was interesting. You talked about Gannon being a little softer. The Bears played man at a top 10 rate in 2021 on third down. And the league overall has kind of shifted away from that. And maybe there's a chance to sigh won't be as aggressive, rolling that out there on third down as he was the last time we saw him as a defensive coordinator. But I just thought it was worth pointing out because the Eagles did not play a lot of man

coverage even on third down last year. Yeah, and, I mean, it worked. Their defense was very good last year, but that was with the scariest past rush of football, which, I mean, again, they have pieces could certainly work out that way. And I think they're going to be good on defense, but just a little scared that they're going to be as good on the back end. Did you, by the way, we didn't mention this. We didn't talk about this before the show.

Did you see the Mike Rable quote today? The one with 35, 10, what was it 35, 10 year olds is what you'd need to? Someone asked him how many five-year-olds it would tackle Derek Henry. And his response was, quote, unquote, a shit ton. And I was thinking, how many defensive linemen would Howie Roseman want if he could have on his defense? And the answer is also a shit ton. Exactly.

That is a unit in the NFL. Even after losing Javan Hargrave, he still has a shit ton. So that's how he's always going to do this. You know they're going to get one during the year. They're not set with this personnel. Howie, he signed like three defensive linemen for a Super Bowl rotation. You got Robert Quinn, who barely played, but they signed Intaminuong Sousou and Linval Joseph.

Linval Joseph in the season because they had one bad game against the run. So he's going to keep adding players, is my suspicion. But I did have Reed Blankenship on my list sort of hitting at the same idea, which is the defensive concerns. I think the offense is also a little bit of a concern, but maybe not quite as much. Yeah, I think the defensive personnel concerns are more. important than anything about the office. So I think that's worth mentioning. Who's your next one? Let me go from a team that has too many pass rushers or certainly plenty of pass rushers to a team

that might not have any pass rushers and needs one to compete. And I'm going to pick David Ajabo as the focal point here for the Baltimore Ravens because this is a team that is built to win the Super Bowl. It is a team. I also had David Ajabo very far down my list. That's fine. It could have been a DAPA OA as well. But this is a Ravens team where when you let you could maybe say the secondary i think a secondary is is is good not great not up to the secondaries they had years pass but good but you look at this raven's team and think what is the one obvious hole on this roster and it is their pass rush last year just in houston led them in sacks with nine and a half nobody else had more than six uh clias campbell

was one of the guys with five and a half he left this off season Houston still a free agent um i guess he could still resign there but hasn't signed there up to this point. They could still look for somebody, but right now it looks like... It feels like somebody is going to wind up there in the Justin Houston role, even if it's not just in Houston. Until that happens, though, we are sitting here right now with Adafioa, David Ajabo, and to some extent, he's not as much of a pass rusher, but Tyas Bowser as their edge rushers

in this defense. And that seems like a scary group for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations right now. Yeah, I think that's fair. Even if they're going to manufacture some rush and they're going to do some Not traditional stuff. Yeah. If they're going to, you know, obviously this team loved the simulated pressures last year. And even if they're not going to blitz a lot, they're going to be creative in the way that they get after the quarterback.

But at a certain point, you've got to be able to have guys that can just win in one-on-one situations. Do you remember? And if you don't, it's going to be difficult to beat the Bengals. Remember that Tyree Kill touchdown against the Ravens last year where they had Kyle Hamilton showing under pressure and then having to sprint back 40 yards to get Tyree Kill? The Ravens threw a lot of shit against the wall just to see what would stick last year early in the season. That happens when you don't have, when you don't have Hassan Redick as someone you can be confident and say, oh, we're just going to rush four and we're going to have Kyle Hamilton 35 yards downfield to prevent Tyreekill from running past our poor corner playing. I think he was in quarter quarter half actually, but there was nobody in the other quarter next to him.

Um, you know, certainly it feels like if, if there are a few teams who deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing defensive players more than the Ravens. So like would hardly be shocking if, if OA or Ajo suddenly had like a nine-sac season and we're, you know, in position to be impactful defensive players, but would sure have loved to see it before this year. Yeah. And they've had guys that were drafted even deeper, have that third, fourth year breakout, Zadarius Smith, Pernel, fee. They've been able to shot a lot of those guys off the assembly line. But you're right. We have not seen it and this team has real aspirations in the AFC. Rightfully so, because I think there's a lot

of talent on this roster, but that's one of the spots that you have a question about. I think you're right about the secondary. They're a little bit less deep a corner than they've been in years past. So how does that ultimately shake out? Chuck Clark is no longer on this roster. But I would agree that I think the past rusher and Najabo specifically coming off, I think, a year and a half

now removed from that Achilles injury is the guy I would trot out there. The other Raven I had potentially on my list is O'Dell Beckham. Yeah. If O'Dell Beckham's really good and he's a plus receiver for them, and I guess there are a couple other things that you want to see fall in place. If Zay Flowers can be good, you know, what is the actual ceiling for this passing game? And what you get out of, I don't know, you can name any one of those three, a healthy Rashad Bateman, Zay Flowers, O'Dell Beckham. I think what you get out of those guys along with how Lamar fits into this offense is going to go a long way.

and defining what the ceiling looks like. Absolutely. And obviously, the money doesn't matter now in terms of, you know, how he's going to produce. It's not going to be better because they're paying him more. But clearly, whether it was a product of the Lamarjaxon negotiations or whether it was a product of presumed or perhaps imagined market for O'Dell Services for more than $10 million a year, O'Dell Beckham's making nearly $15 million for this Ravens team this year. So they are paying him like they expect him to be their wide receiver one.

I mean, he wasn't even really that guy in Los Angeles. It didn't have to be. It was when Cooper Cup was destroying records. He was a complimentary piece. And when you have limited resources because of what you've paid your quarterback, those decisions, you only get so many of them. You only get so many swings. You only get so many swings that size when you're at this stage that the Ravens are at.

So I think that makes it even more important and gives it even more urgency for Beckham to be that guy. What is a good enough season from Odell Beckham to? It's not stats. Because I think that if they want to move the ball around and if Mark Andrews is going to be the leading target getter on this team, it can be an 800-yard season from Odell Beckham. But if he's consistently a matchup problem and he's consistently raising the ceiling of what the passing offense can look like, that's more important to me than a single stat line. Okay, that's fair. So do you want to use Odell as your guy or do you want to give me somebody else? He was like the 15th guy on my list.

Okay. There were more guys that I was going to cut. There were guys that I was going to say like a passing mention. And Odell and David O'Jabba were two of those guys. My next one, sticking in the AFC North, Deshaun Watson. Yeah. This isn't fun, but it's true. The Browns were 10th in EPA per dropback last.

season when Deshaun Watson was not playing. 10th. That's what Chobby Percette. They were a top 10 passing offense last season. And that's just passing. If you look at the offense as a whole, they were fourth in EPA per play on offense over the first 10 weeks of the season. First 11. They were fifth in offensive DVOA.

This was one of the best offenses in the league last year when Djigobi Perciette was on the field. So I'm not even saying that Deshaun Watson needs to be the player that we saw near the end of his Houston tenure. when he looked like the next star quarterback in the NFL. Even if he's average, this has a chance to be a really good offense and I think a really good football team. There's a lot of talent on this roster. And I don't know if he's ever going to be the guy that they paid for, draft pick-wise, contract-wise, but if he is a useful quarterback, if he can just run the offense, I think

they have a chance to be competitive and maybe even a contender in the AFC. But if he's not, then people are. They're not at all. Their offensive line is very good. They've surrounded him with plenty of weapons. Elijah Moore is there now. Amari Cooper, the tight ends that they have. So this is a question of what sort of play you're going to get out of the quarterback.

If he's really good, I think they have a chance to be really good. If he's really bad, then I think people are going to probably lose their jobs. It certainly feels that way because who's going to get blamed for this? Is it going to be the coach or the guy making $230 million fully guaranteed? It seems like it will not be the latter guy because he's not movable. And they just fired their defensive coordinator, Joe Woods, last year, which is why if I had known coaches were allowed, I would have chosen Jim Schwartz as one of the guys. I was also thinking about Jim Schwartz. I was also thinking about Jim Schwartz.

Because to me, you got to figure Deshaun Watson is better. We don't know if he's the guy he was last year or several years ago. I don't know if he's the peak Deshaun Watson. The guy of Browns fans were dreaming of getting when they traded for Deshaun Watson. Watson, but he's probably not going to be as bad as he was last year. So even if he's average, good running game, good offensive line, you know, solid playmakers. I'm not as optimistic about the playmakers. When you said Elijah Moore was the first name off your list, I think that tells you, it's probably not that great. It should have been Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper's already been there,

though, though if they added Elijah Moore this offseason, that's the reason I mentioned him first. A very prominent ESPN.com writer, I believe, had the Brown's, even with Nick Chubb as a below average. No, they were 12th. Okay, they were better than I thought. 12th in playmakers, so they're fine. But the defense was the problem with this team last year, Mayes. They would have been a playoff team if the defense had been better.

Of course, they blew that game against the Jets early in the season. They allowed 30 points to the Chargers. They allowed 38 points to the Patriots. They allowed 39 points to the Dolphins, 31 to the Bills. this defense, which a lot of people were excited about, given all the young talent they have on that side of the ball, was the problem. They finished 23rd in defensive DVOA down from 11th, the prior season. And there's a lot of guys on this roster outside of Miles Garrett where you would hope that Jim Schwartz, who has a history of developing young defensive talent, would develop guys like a Jeremiah. Usu Koro, Moa, like a Ogbo, Akronkro, where they signed him in free agency, but he's still

not really like a finished piece necessarily. He's not really, is that team three right now, but we're still talking about him like he's 22. He is still fairly young. He's like 26, 28, 28. You know, like a grandelpit, like a Martin Emerson. You know, those guys are going to be the difference makers here. And they needed to add more heft of the interior, adding Delvin Tomlinson, I think, was

an underrated big move for them this offseason. I agree. We'll see what Sedaria Smith has left in a tank, but this is a defense that was supposed to be young and fast, and instead they got, they got overpowered, and they were, they were sloppy on defense last year. They made too many mental mistakes. It was too easy to move the ball on them. And I think for Jim Schwartz's perspective, the last time we saw him, I guess he was not

that great at the very end with the Eagles, but did win a Super Bowl with the Eagles with personnel that was not necessarily all that incredible outside of the defensive line. So if that front floor plays well, I kind of feel like the defense could be the part that takes a step forward more so than Deshaun Watson and the offensive side of the ball. It's funny because you're construing it, like you think Deshaun Watson will be better and the offense will probably be okay. That's kind of how I feel about the defense. Sure. I think with Jim Schwartz coming in there, like they're going to be better and they're probably going to be okay. I just imagine them being somewhere probably around the middle of the pack. Like if they're the 14th best

defense in the league that feels right to me, which is a significant step forward from where they were last year. Oh, sure. But on offense, I think a really good version of Watson and the version we saw last year or even a slightly better version is the difference between them being the third best offense in the league and the 17th best offense in the league. And I think that gap is what could explain a deep playoff run or then missing the playoffs entirely. You think they can make a deep playoff run? Yes. You think they can make the AFC championship game? Yes. Wow.

I mean, it's possible, I don't know if it will, but I think with the level of, you're saying it's possible. Yes. I think that is within the range of outcomes, for sure,

with the level of talent that they have on the roster. If the quarterback plays close to the level that we've seen him play up before. Yeah. If he doesn't, they probably go eight and nine don't even make the playoffs.

Seven and ten don't even make the playoffs. Yeah. So that's, again, it's not fun to talk about, but if we're talking about the guys that provide the widest range of outcomes for their teams.

Based on everything else around them, I think you have to mention him. You're right. You're absolutely right. I will give you a different player in the AFC South or in the AFC South as opposed to the AFC North, but a team that has that kind of potential this year if everything breaks right, and that is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Which Jack did you pick? Interesting.

I have two Jags that aren't Calvin Ridley. Who are your Jags? Trayvon Walker and Anton Harrison, which we can talk about. but I think Calvin Ridley is a fun one. So let's do it. Well, hold on. What do you think is going to happen with their tackle situation? What do you mean?

Like, Anton Harrison is there. Walker Little is there. Those guys are going to start while Cam Robinson is suspended. Like, do you think Cam Robinson is going to come back and be a starter on this team? 100%. So then what happens to Anton Harrison? Anton Harrison stays at right tackle and Walker Little goes to left guard. Okay.

If I had to make a bet on it right now, that's the bet that I would make. If anybody's going to bet on offensive line progressions, I'm going to pick you to bet on it. So I can see what you'd say. I think Walker is a more notable pick to me. But I think Walker and Ridley stand out to me. And of course, there are different sorts of impact in terms of what they can do. Obviously, the offense was fine last year, especially during the second half.

To me, I think what Calvin Ridley does is he makes everyone else in the offense better because they all go down a slot. If Cal Ridley is that legit number one receiver that we saw that last full season in Atlanta, then Christian Kirk is now not overmatch as the number one. He's the number two. Sage-Ellons is not probably stretches a three. He's a four. If an inkram's not stretches a two, he's a three.

Like everyone, it's like getting that ace pitcher. Everyone else goes to step down in the rotation, and it feels like you have to rely on them a little bit less. You can be a little more creative. You have a little more depth. There's a little more leeway if one of those guys. gets injured. And I think that's really exciting because we know the sort of upside Trevor Lawrence has, right? Like, it's not out of the question that Trevor Lawrence is the MVP of the NFL in

2023. Um, you know, one of those things where it feels like we're not talking about it right now, but if it happened, nobody would be shocked by the end of the season. And I, sort of the same way you feel about the Browns? I don't know that the defense, even if Trayvon Walker steps up in year two, has that kind of upside where we could be looking at them as like a top five unit. But I think we could see that from the offense. I would be surprised if the offense wasn't hovering around the top five. Wow. We're doing our top ten offenses show later in the week, so spoilers, but I'm pretty enthusiastic about the Jax. And one of the reasons I wouldn't include Calvin Ridley on a list like this is I feel pretty good about what he's going to be for them.

Even with the two years off and you talk about how it slots everyone into the right role, schematically, it just gives them an element they did not have last year. They did so much damage last season within three-man concepts on one side of the, on one side of the play where there's a lot of trips, there's a lot of rub routes, there's just a lot of scheme touches, right? It's smoke and mirrors. They're creating offense by structure alone. The stuff that's not Travis Kelsey on the chief's offense.

Yes. And that's what you need when you don't have that real number one receiver outside the numbers. So now if you can have Calvin Ridley as that isolated guy on the backside of some of that stuff, it just gives you an option you didn't have last year. Marvin Jones played like 500 snaps for this team last season. So you're dropping Calvin Ridley into that role instead of Marvin Jones. This is already a top 10 offense last year, Barnwell. Yep. No question.

A step forward from the quarterback, fewer turnovers, fewer bad decisions, him playing within himself a little bit more, combined with the addition of Calvin Ridley, I'm very excited about the offense. My main question more is how is the rookie right tackle going to play? If he's a turnstile the entire season, that is going to hold them back more than anything else because I feel pretty confident about Calvin Ridley. But he's not going to play the entire season if that happens. They'll just move Walker Little to right tackle and they'll have Harrison be the swing tackle, no? Yeah, maybe. that's probably a good point, that the downside cases they're protecting against it because other guys they have on the roster. They invested a first round pick in the guy, though.

I have a hard time imagining that they want to put him on the bench for anything less, anything that's not disastrous. I mean, Giants played Evan Neal all year last year. Mean. They made the playoffs. It weren't. But fair. So, Anson Harrison, just again, I think he's the day one starter at right tackle. So when you're the day one starter as a rookie for an offense that has a chance to be really good.

you hope he's the guy. So I wanted to mention him as part of this exercise for that reason. I have Trayvon Walker just because this defense added no one. Yeah. Truly. They didn't add anyone. They didn't add anyone in the draft in the first two rounds. They went offense, despite what their offense looks like last season.

So they are really banking on development from their in-house guys and those in-house highly drafted guys. Trayvon Walker, among 125 edge defenders last. year who played at least 100, who played at least 20% of their team snaps. He finished 98th of 125 in PFF's pass rush productivity. He had 31 pressures on the season. He was less disruptive on a per snap basis than Cleveland Farrell. That's such a mean marker.

That's what it was. That's what it was. And we knew it was always going to be an uphill battle. He was not a disruptive pass rusher in college. It was a traits based bet. that the Jags made. But now you need some of those bets to work out for you. And they're doing this at a couple different positions.

Tyson Campbell made a big step forward last year. They're hoping he can be an all pro-level player on the outside this season. And if something like that happens and Devin Lloyd takes a step forward and Trayvon Walker becomes a plus pass rusher combined with what's happening on offense, now we're cooking with gas. I mean, Devin Lloyd got benched. Tevin Lloyd got benched, yes. For a chunk of the year, for who was the guy? guy who took his, Chad Muma.

Chad Muma. To take Devin Lloyd's place. I'm spoiling some of the conversation we had with John Shepley when I was down in Jacksonville, which is going to run on Saturday. We dig into a lot of this stuff. But Trayvon Walker, I think, is he epitomizes the steps they need from players on their defense. Because I think the offense is going to be very good. I'm very excited about the quarterback and about a lot of the other pieces that they have there.

So if they can be a top five offense, can this go from being, you know, bottom five defense for most of last season, if you look at the metrics, to an average or slightly above average unit. If that happens, they can compete in the AFC. And I think the Trayvon Walker has a better chance to swing that than anybody else on that side of the ball. Yeah, and that's the gap between them being, you know, competing and favorites for the AFC South to being a team that actually competes with the Jags, the Chiefs and the Bills and the Bengals for being, you know, the top seat in the AFC. Correct. I think that's totally fair.

So I think he's going to be a big, again, pivot point, the guy that can shift things for them pretty substantially. I got two more quarterbacks, which is, it feels like she didn't do quarterbacks, but I just, I had to mention both of these guys. Jordan Love and Desmond Ritter. Yep, I got Jordan Love. I did not do Desmond Ritter, but Jordan Love was one of my guys. So I'll do Ritter first, then you can talk about why you think the love belongs on this list. The Falcons last season finished 12th in offensive DioA. they were a top 12 offense with the worst starting quarterback play arguably in the entire NFL

and what they got from Marcus Marietta. He was pretty bad last year, man. Oh, geez Louise. Maybe Zach Wilson. Did you see the guy who the Panthers were like, we're good? We'd rather go back to PJ Walker than Baker Mayfield. Okay. How about bottom three quarterback play in the NFL from a starter last year?

I think even that's a little harsh. there were some pretty bad quarterbacks last year. But yeah, Marcus Marieto was not the solution. I think we can agree there. This team was fantastic running the football last year. No question. They bring back all the component parts of that, add a second round guard to the mix. I think their offensive staff is really good at scheming that up.

They drop in a top 10 running back. We can argue about whether that's necessary if you're already this good running the ball. Too late now. That's neither here nor there. So I do think that so many other aspects of this offense are ready, a role. I'm excited about pits in London. I think that the pieces are here for them to be

maybe one of the best offenses in football and certainly one of the best offenses in the NFC if the quarterback plays well. Or even if he's serviceable, even if he's not one of the worst four or five starters in the league, if he can just put the ball where it's supposed

to be, which by the way, I think is one of the reasons they like him because he puts the ball where they want him to put it, even if he was a little bit scattershot as a third round rookie last year, then I think this team has a chance to be very interesting on that side of the ball. That's a huge question, though. I mean, we don't, not a lot of third round guys come in in their second year and give you

capable starting quarterback play. It would be an exception to most of history. But if they can find that exception, then I think that they have a chance to be really fun offensively. It's an exception, but it's one they're depending upon. It's not as if it's Desmond Ritter and Marcus Mariotta is the backup where we know, okay, Like if Ritter's terrible, they can go to Marriota and they have a guy who led them to the 12th best offense in football last year by DVOA, where even if he was not leading is the wrong word, but he was at least along for the ride and contributing as a runner and occasionally as a thrower. But like they're pretty much all of their eggs are in the basket of a guy who played four games last year, one of which was a game where he threw the ball 12, sorry, he was 13 to 26 for 97 yards and 1.

one of those games. He played backups. He was against backups in all of those games. Tom Brady was the exception. He played one half against Tom Brady. And not that that means it's going to change his style of play, but they were not in games where they had to be very effective on offense to win those games. He averaged 6.2 yards per attempt last year, Mays. Like, he was not. This is my funny stat. You ready? Okay. Last season, Marcus Mariotta was third in the NFL and off target percentage, according to true media. Zach Wilson was number one. Guess who was number two? Was it, It was Desmond Ritter.

It was Desmond Ritter. Oh, no. So if you're using that stat to be like, I don't know about Marcus Marriota, Desmond Ritter was actually worse by that one single metric. Again, I think they're excited about aspects of his game, but it's not like he played really well when given the opportunity last year. No, and I think that's my concern is, okay, this offense really thrived in Tennessee when they added Ryan Tannahill

because what Ryan Tannel did was hit shots downfield when they threw the ball off of play action for huge games. He was incredible in terms of yards per attempt, especially that first season. He averaged like nine, 9.6 yards per attempt that year. That's more efficiency-based than it is average depth of target-based, in my opinion. Think about a lot of those gains and what they were hitting. Those are just daggers over the middle of the field consistently based on the space. Right, but that's what I want.

That's what I need to see from this offense. That's what the running game should do for you. that's what it did in Tennessee. And it's not like Ryan Tannahill's hitting tight windows, but you don't have to. Like, if you can hit those windows in this offense, you're going to be fine. And that's what my concern is with Desmond Ritter is that even in that four-game sample, even given how effective they were running the football, either they didn't trust him to hit those shots or he wasn't hitting those shots reliably. And frankly, they have the personnel to pull it off. They have the offensive line.

They have the playmakers. They have the running game. So that's where I think he needs to be a weapon. Like he doesn't have to be a guy, you know, lofting in 50-50 balls. It doesn't have to be a guy who's, you know, extending plays and improvising and getting to his third and fourth read. Like, he just has to be that guy who's going to hit Diggs off play action all day.

If he can do that, they're going to be fine. But we didn't see him do that last year. That's also a little bit different. Kyle Pitts did not play last year when he was the starter. I think there are more reasons to think that this can turn out. well. And the exact thing that you're saying, all he has to do is make the plays that are on the field to be made, that's why I think it's possible because they're not asking him to do a ton. Maybe this is also unfair and it's a silly way to think about it. One of the reasons we don't see

a lot of third round picks succeed in this sort of opportunity is a lot of third round picks don't get this sort of opportunity. It's true. The very fact that they're allowing him to enter the season as the starter, I think probably says more about him. him than a lot of quarterbacks picked in the third round over the last decade. And maybe they just didn't think that there was a better option and they're just going to roll with it because it's what they have. But the fact that they're giving him this chance, I think, should make us feel better about him than the typical guy drafted where he was drafted.

You know, I'm willing to do the- Again, maybe that's unfair, but that's kind of how I'm talking myself into it. I'm willing to do appeal to authority with Brian Gutikunst and Matt LaFlor when it comes to Jordan Love. I can buy the, well, they traded Aaron Rogers and they wouldn't have traded Aaron Rogers if they hadn't, you know, if it wasn't because if Jordan Love hadn't been good enough, they wouldn't have made that trade. I could buy that. I don't really occupy the same brain space as Arthur Smith and the Falcons for better and for worse, frankly. Like they grossly exceeded my expectations last year. So it's harder for me to take that leap if you can understand. I can understand that. Again, maybe that's an overly optimistic way of thinking about it. But I do think they see more from him than most teams would see out of a quarterback they drafted than the third. For sure.

And certainly, certainly like the upside in terms of it mattering is there. Like if he's solid, are they the favorites to win the NFC South? Are they, it feels like they're certainly in contention even not knowing what he's going to be this year. There are so many different factors with all of these teams. You know, with the Saints, I think it's their defense staying healthy and being able to sustain some of those kind of underlying talent losses that they had among the defensive line, for example. You know, can Cam Jordan kind of keep playing the way that he's playing into his mid-30s? The entirety of their defensive tackle rotation. Yeah, I was putting it nicely.

So I think there are questions for the Saints where things need to fall in the place. With the Panthers, if Bryce Young is good, I think the Panthers could be the best team in the NFC South. I think you can make a case for all four teams because the Bucks, even with Baker Mayfield playing quarterback, still might have more talent, more high-end talent than any of the other teams in this division. Would you want to watch 17 bucks games this year? Seeing what they were like last year with Tom Brady a quarterback

or they were infuriating to watch every week? Even saying what I just said. Yeah. I'm driving through the southeast right now going to train. camps. You'll notice I did not go to Tampa. So even if that timeline is on the table for the bucks, I'm not particularly interested in them compared to some of these other teams. No, me neither. I see your point. But yeah, I think moving on to Jordan Love and Packers, like, I don't think I have to explain

this one too much. It seems quite obvious. This was a team that won 13 games three years in a row before last season and when they imploded, they have a good defense, they have a good running game. Their offensive line is the healthiest and deepest it's been in years. Do you see some of the weird shit happen in there right now, by the way? What?

You see some of the murmurs today? Zach Tom was getting starting snaps at center today. Which I have no issue with that. I think that they're trying to figure out who is our best five because we have more capable players than we know what to do with. And there's a chance that Zach Tom is just better than Josh Myers, and it's worth rolling with that.

But them trying to figure out what that five looks like, and ultimately Zach Tom potentially ending up at center is kind of a funny thing to me. It makes me mad that they just keep finding these guys in the fifth round that are capable starters, and don't get me started on that. But that little bit of news today I thought was kind of funny. I mean, that's a good problem to have. It really is. The fact that our potential swing tackle in Yash Nyman is too good for us to keep off the field

is a good problem to have. Yes. So, like, the infrastructure outside of, of course, having the playmakers at wide receiver and tight end, at least in terms of experience, it's there. I think the defense is good. I think getting Rashon Gary back is going to make a big difference. I know the running game was, or their run defense was pretty brutal last year. I hope that improves this upcoming season. We keep doing this.

David Helman did this last week on the show where he's like, oh, the defense will probably be pretty good. And I was like, why don't we keep doing this every year? We don't have to just pencil that in. There aren't that many reasons why they should be better. I like so many of those players. I wish they were better because I'd be less frustrated, but I don't think we can just pencil in them being better defensively because they have all this talent.

I mean, it seems like a good reason to pencil them in to be better, frankly. Maybe, but I keep doing this with these teams. We'll look at it on paper before the season. I'd be like, man, they got a lot of dudes. Did that with the Browns last year? And then you watch them play and there's something missing here. And that's how it felt watching the Packers' defense over the last couple seasons. And again, same defensive coordinator.

I don't have that many reasons to believe it'll be different. I'm getting a little bit off track here, but this keeps happening. And I just want to kind of pull us back a little bit when it happens because I don't know how much they deserve the benefit of the doubt on that side of the ball after the way the last couple of years have gone. That's fair. I mean, my hope is that they're better with Rishan Gary than they were without him for chunks of last season.

And you were before they didn't have J.E. or Alexander pretty much the entire season. They were getting by with, like, they had Russell Douglas and Devandre Campbell turned into pro bowlers or pro bowl caliber players, you know, kind of out of nowhere. That's promising at least. I don't know. I mean, I got your point. It's well taken. It's fair. There is a lot of talent here.

It's nice to think that they can be even a league average defense. Because, again, sort of like the NFC South, like, if love is okay. and the defense is okay, that might be a playoff team. Yeah, it's competitive in the NFC. Let's say love is pretty good, right? Like, he's, he gives you capable play every week with a couple of splash throws here and there. Let's say he's the 16th best quarterback in the NFL. He's as good as Derek Carr season from whatever year.

based on the playmakers they have, how good do you think that offense is? Because you're very good at this, kind of just stepping back and looking at this stuff rationally, looking at the guys they have and how young they are at those spots. What does an offense with average quarterback play? This offense, what does it look like with average quarterback play? If there's ever an offense that's hard to project, it's this one. Because you mentioned they were young. If he go by Mike Clay's projections at ESPN, in terms of the wide receivers and the tight ends,

if they get targeted at the rate Mike Clay is projecting, they would be the second youngest receiving core the last 20 years. Every guy on the roster was drafted in the last two years. It's insane. Literally the oldest receiver on their roster is Josiah DeGuarda, who was drafted in 2020 and is 26 years old.

Yeah, and the wide receiver specifically are even more extreme than that. It's all guys from the last two years. Their top two tight ends are rookies. It's Luke Bussgraven Tucker Kraft. And then on top of that maze, Jordan Love is the only quarterback on this depth chart who's ever thrown an NFL pass. And he's throwing 80.

He's throwing 80. Like, ironically, this is the least experienced quarterback room since the year Aaron Rogers took over with the Packers. I don't know how to base this in reference to your college life, but 2008, I believe, and it was him. And I think Brian Brome was the backup in Green Bay. Brian Brougham. That's right. Second round pick, Brian Brum. He was second round. I believe a big football outsiders. Guy Fulbers was very behind at the time. It was him, Brian Brougham, and Matt Flynn, who had not played at that point. Matt Flynn was a rookie seventh round pick. But I loved those Louisville teams, man. I had like a weird affinity for those Louisville teams. But that team had Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson who was a rookie as well, Greg Jennings, Donald Lee, General Lee, Jeremy Finley. Like those guys, a lot of those guys ended up breaking out. but outside of driver, they were not break out players at that point.

They had to develop. And so it's so hard to project this because it kind of feels like they all have to figure this out on the fly. Like if Christian Watson goes nuclear and he's just a wide receiver one, that's going to make Jordan Love's life easier. But his chances of doing that are decreased because Jordan Love has so inexperienced. It's a really good point. And I don't know which way to nudge it because I think that he,

He is really talented, and we saw that in flashes last year, but how much of that is the quarterback play? And if the quarterback play gets significantly worse, what can we expect from that group? No, just a really high variance thing. Yeah, it is. It's very difficult to pin down. All right. You want to talk about the 2006 Louisville team really quickly for a second? So they were 12 and 1, okay, under Bobby Petrino.

This team was loaded with NFL players. Brian Brom was the quarterback, obviously. Michael Bush, remember Michael Bush? Of course. He was one of the running backs on that team. Harry Douglas had 70 catches for almost 1,300 yards. Gary Barnage and Brenno Jacamini were on this team. Just loaded with NFL talent, the 2006 Louisville Cardinals.

I knew I remember that team being fun. Yeah, anytime you can get Brano Jocomini listed in your list of core offensive talent. Brown Jockemini played the league for a while. He won a Super Bowl. And a first-round pick on the defensive side of the ball. Two? No, one first-round pick on the defensive side of the ball. Moby-Ikoye.

In a Moby-A-Coye. Malik Jackson just retired was there. William Gay, longtime NFL cornerback was there. Man, we can do this all day, huh? Really good team. I love that team in NCAA football. I just remember playing with Michael Bush and Brian Brough.

It was a good times in my life. I got one more in, like, my main list. Okay. I have Sean McDermott. Hmm. I like that one. I didn't think of that one, but I think that's a good one. Why?

So, me on it. He's calling defensive plays now. And this has been a top 10 defense since he got there with Leslie Frazier, kind of overseeing that side of the ball. But they were falling off a little bit at the end of last season. They finished eighth and away to DVOA. Injuries explained some of that. They lose Von Miller. That affects the rest of their pass rush.

They're banged up in the secondary. Jordan Poir was hurt even when he was playing. Mike didn't play. Trey White got back halfway through the season. They're deeper and probably better personnel-wise this year and even more flexible than they've been in years past. but let's say Sean McDermott is like really got it. Like he's throwing fastballs as a defensive play caller this year. They're blitzing a little bit more.

They're just a little bit more interesting on that side of the ball. For whatever reason, he's pressing the right buttons, maybe a little bit more than Leslie Fraser did in his last season there. Can this be one of the best defenses in the league again? Can it be the best defense in the league again? And if they are, and we expect the offense to be decidedly above average, and it's a team that even with some of their shortcomings last year, I think still finished second in,

EPA per play on offense, is this bill's team just as good or even potentially better than some of the ones we've seen over the last couple years, even if some of the heat has kind of faded off them a little bit. And I think Sean McDermott can go a long way in determining that. It does feel a little like sort of the hype has sort of come off the bills a little bit. And you can understand why. It definitely is. I mean, last year was like supposed to be the year. And then through things that some of which were their fault, some of which obviously with the DeMarie Hamlin situation were not their fault. Like the blizzard that cost them a home game where they still won, but they weren't gone for a week and a half. Like that was an emotionally exhausting season for the bills.

And I think you saw that in how they played in the postseason. Like some of it, yes, was Josh Allen having an elbow injury and sort of struggling and them not having a counterpunch. but I think they were an exhausted team by the time they got to the postseason where they struggle with the Scowler-Thompson Dolphins. They got blown out at home in the snow by the Bengals. It just felt like they had so little left in the tank by the end of the season. And I'm not concerned about the offense. I think they're going to have a counterpunch that I like, but I do believe, like, this defense, it's, you're not adding pieces right now. You're subtracting pieces.

you lose Jermann's and even they're getting healthy, like what are the chances that the guys who were, the veterans, the core of this team are going to be better than they were when they were healthy last year. I mean, they're a year older too. He's a year older.

Jordan Pyer, Micaheke Hyde, like Hyatt's going to be back this year or hopefully healthy for the entire season after missing most of last year, I believe with a neck injury. He's 32. He's 32. Jordan Poirer is 32.

Like, those guys are awesome. They've been awesome forever in this bill's defense. But like, what are the chances they're even better this year than they were in 2021 or the first few weeks of 2022? Like, it's not high. They didn't really have a replacement for Edmonds when he left for the Bears. They're dependent on guys like they drafted guys. Like, they drafted Terrell Bernard in the third round in 2022.

They drafted Dorleyings in the third round this year. But they're questions. They're young players. Even if you can project some development from them, they are not proven quality. in the way that Tremaine Edmonds was by the end of his time in Buffalo. And you're having those guys step in on the fly. Like the expectation is not, ah,

we'll be fine this year. We'll get better next year. They need to win right now. Like this is the last year, I think was the best version of this Bill's team. This year is the next best version and next year's going to be a little bit worse. Like unless they just nail a draft, which can happen and, you know,

maybe they'll be really good. They'll be their pixel workout great. Like unless they just nailed this year's draft, this team is getting worse, not getting better. And so that pressure is weighing on all these people. And so I think you bring that back to show of McDermott, who's the coach of this team, now adds extra responsibility as the defensive play caller. Like, yes, he can do it. We know he's good at that role. But is that going to make his head coaching worse? Is the rest of this team not going to be as effective because McDermott's

taking on that role? I think that's a fair question to ask. Yeah, I think that they've been very good at game management, too. If you think about his in-game decisions, he's consistently given them edges with the way they've gone forward on four down, those sort of decisions, is that going to be a little less sharp when you're the one calling defensive plays? I talked to a defensive head coach about this recently. They feel like it's easier to handle both of those responsibilities when you're a defensive-minded head coach because you're not worried about calling timeouts and things like that. So it's a little bit less on your plate than it would be for a play calling offensive head coach, but it's still more responsibilities. So I think the range of outcomes for Sean McDermott as a defensive play caller

and for the defense in general is not as wide as some of the other guys we've talked about on this list. But I do think it might be as pivotal in terms of what you get out of him this year. One of my like, we did a show with David Hellman last week about the takes we like think we might believe. And one of mine that I'm workshopping right now is I think that. And like that you mentioned, the draft is a very important part of this. But let's say that Osiris, Osiris Torin starts for them and Kincaid gives them something. in year one. One of my like quasi-hate is I think this has a chance to be the best

Bill's roster from over the last five years. I don't agree with you. I don't necessarily believe that right now. But I kind of think that there are certain timelines where that's how it unfolds. Because I think the offensive line has a chance to be better and more physical than it's been in years past. Roger Seffel is not good for this team last year. They signed Connor McGovern and Free Agency.

Can Torrance give them a little bit more in the interior of the office? offensive line. And then defensively, they've got a lot of guys in that defensive line rotation. They brought Leonard Floyd in. Puna Ford is on this team now. And what sort of flexibility does Taylor Rap give them as a third safety that they haven't had in years past? And even beyond that, like, now you have Kairilum in year two. Can he take a step forward? You know, Christian Benford got snaps for them. I think they're really deep at corner in ways that they might not have been in years past. So I don't know. I think that there is a version of this team that by the end of the season we get there and we're like, man, this is the best roster in the AFC. And I just don't think

most people are talking about them like that, the same way they talked about them like that at this time last year. I think both things could be true. I think they could have the best roster in the AFC and still not be as good as some of the Bills teams from the past couple years. Yeah, that's fair. The 2021 version is probably the best version. I mean, the offensive line depth was so much better. Like, I understand what you're saying about them being more physical. And that's going to have to change. Like, I think I've talked about this in like 8 million shows now. the idea that they're going to emulate what the chiefs did last year and that they're going to have that, okay, you're going to play like boxes, we're going to bring out our Damian Harris, our version of Isaiah Pacheco, we're going to come out and we're going to be physical with you. We're going to, you know, outpower you if you want to come out with five-man boxes or match up with, you know, like six people in the box against our 12 personnel. I think that's inevitable for how they need to approach it, just to have that in their pocket the way the chiefs did last year. I thought Stephen Irwis brought a, brought up a good point earlier today on Twitter when

Brandon Bean, I believe was on McAfee was saying that we're going to flex Dalton Kincaid out as receiver. That's where we think he's best. Those two guys are going to be on the field at the same time. And Stephen was like, well, don't defenses know that too? And if defenses are going to play nickel to your 12 and Dalton Kincaid's not really

a blocker, does that create an advantage for you in the run game? Or are you just putting out a tight end as your slot receiver who isn't as dynamic as other slot receivers? I get what they're trying to do, but I also think that that's something worth keeping an eye on. Like, are they actually creating the advantages they think they are in that 12 personnel?

They've got to show it. And, like, they might come out in 13, to be honest with you. Like, there's no, they might not stop. It might be Dolton Cade split out as part of a three tight-in set. That wouldn't shock me either. They'd come out with an unbalanced line. And, you know, Dalton Cade and Dawson Knox, and they have six offensive linemen on the field. They could do that more.

Like, I think Stephen's point is well taken and not unsurprisingly very smart. and like it doesn't mean anything to have a quote-unquote tight end if that tight ends make you sickie. Like you're not going to match up the same way you match up with Chris Van Hertz. It feeds the second tight end. But I do believe there's things they can do where it's not just Dalton Kincaid lining up as a traditional tight end and still having those packages work. I mean, Travis Kelsey isn't a plus plus blocker.

Travis Kelsey is a big body tight end still. Travis Kelsey can get in people's ways. If Dalton Kincaid can be as good a blocker as Travis Kelsey is, then maybe this is going to be okay. But I think we have yet to see that. Yeah. I think comparing Dalton Kincaid to Travis Kelsey in any way shape or form is probably a little much. But that's, you know, that's not what I'm saying. You know, that's not. No, no. But like, I think like the expectation is that he has to be that guy in that sort of formation to work where he has to be like the, you know, like the move tight end. He has to be a total difference maker. He doesn't. Because the guy who the bills line up as the one

in that, that 12, 13 personnel is not going to be Justin. It's going to be probably Stefan Diggs for stretches, and that's a big difference. Yeah, so Travis Kelsey was 256 at the combine at 6.5, Dalton Kincade in about 6.3 and three quarters and 246. Have we, have we, if you and I talked about how weird Travis Kelsey's career is? Probably in some capacity. How do you mean? Travis Kelsey enters the NFL.

He's a third round pick. He undergoes microfracture surgery. Yeah. I remember this. He and I had a long conversation about this. This was coming right off. like the Amari Stadamire micro fracture surgery when it was a terrifying word for an athlete. I remember talking to Travis Kelsey about this specifically.

He misses his entire, basically his entire, he plays like one game as rookie season and he's missed I believe one game because of COVID since. Like he has been the healthiest player in football from that point forward. Just bizarre. It's kind of funny because of how much we talk about moms. And I'm sure this isn't true. Like we all know how good Travis. Kelsey is. He's one of those guys that has been so good that I'm not sure we even properly

appreciate how good he's been because of how outlandishly excellent he has been at the position for so long that so many of the stats and the accolades and the numbers you can throw out. They're so good they almost seem fake that there's no way to properly tune into how excellent he has been over the course of his career. If that makes sense. I read about it last year before the season. I said no tight end in their age 33 season or older. had posted a thousand yards season. And Travis Kelsey had 1338 receiving guards last year. Granted, he had a 17th game.

That helps. But even without a 17th game, he would have had like 1250 and 11 touchdowns. Like just no one does that. Even if tight ends hold on till they're older, like a Tony Gonzalez. Like you're decreasing at this point of your career. He had a hundred-time catches last year.

Travis Kelsey was the only receiver anyone really cared about in that offense. And he was still incredible week after week. the most efficient offensive football. He was the passing focal point of the most efficient offensive football in his age 33 season as a tight end. He's absurd. All right, I got like five more guys

that can quickly list. You want me to do it? Yeah, then I'll do one more to finish up. Dex Hill. Stepping in in the back of that Bengals defense. The whole Bengal secondary. Yes, because, and well, Camp Taylor Brittlet we at least saw play last year.

Dex Hill didn't play last season. He played maybe 100 snaps, and this is the Bengals plan. And we've seen this for other teams in a similar position. You pay your quarterback or you know, you have this plan where you know you're going to pay your quarterback. So eventually, you need to draft and develop guys who are going to be cheap. Can I ask a done question?

Sure. Are you surprised I didn't bring back Eli Apple? No. No. But he played like every stop for them last year. That's because Joe Biauzzi was hurt. He played before then I thought, no? No.

I think he did. No, yeah, he did. Cam Taylor Britt was not a starter heading into last year. Eli Apple was. But then Cam Taylor Britt played when Ouzi got hurt. And they know Taylor Britt is a starter and Ouzia is still on the roster. So, no, I'm not surprised. I think that this was always going to be the plan is that Taylor Britt was going to step in as that starter opposite of Ouzia as soon as he was healthy.

But you wouldn't have Apple back as like with, you know, DJ Turner there is going to probably give the nickel. Yeah, they drafted a guy in the first round, didn't they? I mean, it's a second round. I think they have second round. I think that they have succession plans in place for the secondary. I'm not surprised that he's not back. But Dax Hill steps in for Jesse Bates. And, you know,

that's a big one. This was always the plan. I don't think losing Von Bell and replacing him with Nick Scott was necessarily the plan. I think that there's a world where Von Bell comes back at the right price. But Dax Hill for Jesse Bates was always the plan. Now the plan needs to fall into place. Because this defense was really good and more importantly, very flexible over the last few years because of the pieces of the people.

they had on the back end. Can you maintain that identity on defense with some of these young pieces? And I think that he kind of exemplifies that. Dex Hill, I have, Gino Smith. If Gino Smith is really good, I think that the Seahawks have a chance to be very good. If he's as good or better as he was a year ago, what does that team look like? I have J.C. Jackson, is a plus plus corner. If he's the guy we saw in New England and Daniel Popper, I thought, brought this up in a very smart way when he and I talked to training camp, J.C. Jackson was excellent in camp last. year. He had that surgery in August and then was never really right and then got hurt almost immediately after. So if J.C. Jackson can be a really good corner with what they got from

Michael Davis last year and some of the other pieces that that team has, how good can the chargers be if things fall into place for them? And then the last guy I had was Jameson Williams. Okay. If Jameson Williams is a really good explosive piece for that Lions offense that they didn't have a year ago, that to me is one area where they could take the next step, where you have this guy who's a difference maker outside the numbers that you didn't really have for most of last year. So in the 10 games he plays for you this season, when you're pushing to make the NFC playoffs and potentially even make some noise in those playoffs, what do you get out of him?

Because again, this is a first round pick. This is a big bet that they made. Those bets need to start hitting for these teams trying to take the next step. That's it. Those are my guys. Okay. That's fair. There's one guy I can't believe you don't have on your list.

I'm genuinely surprised. I'm sure I missed somebody along the way. I have, that's my final pick here, Mackay Beckton of the New York Jets. Interesting. You could do Dwayne Brown. You could do Dwayne Brown as well. But those tackles, if they play well, that is the biggest weak spot on this Jets offense resolved. And if Breeshall is healthy, which.

I think it looks like trending positively, although I think I still want to see them at someone to give him some rest early in the season. That offense could be scary. Like the upside there is obvious and significant on paper. But Dwayne Brown is coming off of surgery. He's 37, 37, 38 at the end of this month. Mackay Beckman has played one game in two years. Neither of them want to play right tackle.

they appear to be in a blood feud to see who will play left tackle neither of them have played right tackle significantly or regularly so whoever ends up there is moving to a new position on the fly and the expectation here is Super Bowl or bust with a quarterback

who is known to improvise and extend plays and the first six weeks of the year maze have you seen the jet schedule No. Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, Eagles. Good Lord. Done there by.

You know what's really sad? What? I had already just imagined the Jets without Mackay Bechton. No. I think the Jets had imagined the Jets without Mekye Bechton. I know that's a bummer, but when I was thinking about the Jets offense, I had just penciled in, Dwayne Brown at left tackle, and then what are they going to do at right tackle? Billy Turner?

Billy Turner, Max Mitchell, some combination of it, however that ends up shaking out. That's how, not a little faith I have in McKayahe-Bectin, but it's hard for me to imagine a world where he's on the field. So I've just already moved past that in my mind. So throw Jwayne Brown out there. I think Jain Brown is an equally valid concern. Like a good player who is approaching 40,

who has not aged the same way Andrew Whitworth has, coming off of surgery. and just like this seems an obvious concern to me that you have this team that is so utterly all in that is so confident, expectations are so high, and they did not get enough at tackle this offseason. That's a really scary thing. I don't necessarily agree with that.

I think that they, the way the draft unfolded, they probably wanted one of those guys in the middle of the first round. It didn't shake out that way. Sure. And so they're just taking as many shots as they can at it. They signed Billy Turner. They have Max Mitchell on the roster. I appreciate how many different variations of an offensive line they've given themselves avenues too.

I don't know if it's going to shake out, but I think that they've tried. How many of those lines are good, though? It's a good question. But I do think they've tried to protect themselves against the downside cases for that group. have they? Do you feel good about their line this year? Do you think the line will be able to hold up and they will be, like, we'll be sitting here at the end of 2023 and saying the Jets did not do what they were supposed to this year because the offensive line held them back? I think that's still possible, but I also think that even in the worst case scenario, there's probably a pretty good chance they'll feel the competent offensive line. Their starting center from last year, it probably isn't their starting center this year, though that sort of stuff. I know. Reports from camp have not been optimistic about Joe Tipman. Okay. So maybe that doesn't, that's not how it shakes out. But they signed multiple guys or drafted multiple guys on the interior. I think that even if they get a string of bad luck again, it's not going to look as bad as it has over the last couple years when they've sustained injuries. And I think that's on purpose.

Joe Tipman is taking reps with the third team. Well, that's not great. That's not great. That's not great. It worked out for Josh Jacobs. I forgot about that. Again, that is why I'm not playing the preseason fantasy football game. I'm not doing it. I'll let other people do it, but I'm not going to be doing their own that stuff out there, even if I am going to Falcons Camp tomorrow. All right, that's all we got.

Barnwell, thank you very much, my friend. This is always fun. Oh, yeah. I love when we have like a quick show and then it's an hour and 25 minutes or however long this has been. It's been an hour and 25 minutes. worry about it. It's not important. All right, guys, that's all we got. Really appreciate you listening tomorrow.

Mike and Randy will be back with the football GM. On Friday, I'll be back with Nate. We're doing the top 10 offenses or predicting the top 10 offenses in the league this year. Very excited to have Nate back. Very excited for you guys to hear that show. A quick reminder, Saturdays for the next three weeks all the way through training camp, essentially. We're going to have Saturday shows.

I'm going to have collections of conversations from my trips around to different training camps. This Saturday, we got Jags camp with John Shipley, Panthers camp with our Panthers writer, Joe Person. And we were talking to our Falcons writer, Josh Kendall, and Atlanta. So the southeast swing will be coming your way on Saturday. We're going to have those every single week all the way through the end of August, all the way through Labor Day, essentially. Really fun to do those. And I think that I get a lot out of those discussions from here and for people that cover these teams every single day. And I hope you guys do as well. But for now, that is all we have. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll Talk to you soon.