The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The 2023 EDGE draft class with Nate Tice + Diante Lee; Jalen Hurts' massive new deal

Episode Date: April 18, 2023

Two positions are poised to dominate the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. One is quarterback. The other is EDGE. It's entirely possible that five edge rushers will be selected among the first 11 or 12 picks of the draft. Nate Tice and Diante Lee join Robert Mays to break down the class on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. Plus, the guys take a look at Jalen Hurts' new contract.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceFollow Diante on Twitter: @DianteLeeFBSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is brought to you by Betterhelp. Visit betterhelp.com/mays to get 10% off your first month2:40 Jalen Hurts' new deal16:33 Will Anderson27:40 Jalen Carter32:35 Tyree Wilson39:42 Lukas Van Ness47:15 Nolan Smith61:13 Myles Murphy68:41 B.J. Ojulari Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. We're going to be breaking down a few different things. The edge rushers are a huge position group in this draft. Obviously got like Will Anderson at the top, but plenty of guys in Dane's top 12, you know,

four, five, six guys that might go in the first round. So that is a huge position in the 2023 draft. We're going to break that down today along with the J-1 Hurd. news, a big day in NFL news here to help me do that. First of all, my good friend, Nate Tyson. How are you doing, buddy? Doing very well. This is fun.

Get to talk some defense. Get to talk some trench play. I'm very excited for today's show and excited for our third, the third analyst of this show, getting the band back together. But overall, just doing very, very well. Had a great weekend. Hope you're doing well to Robert. As you alluded to also joining us today, we are thrilled to have him back.

It's Deante Lee. Deiante, how you doing, man? I have crawled through the river up Shits Creek and I am free again to podcast with my guys. I'm very glad to be back, especially for this topic. You know, Nate has kind of been like my foremost expert in like the offensive trench guys. And he's seeing I've had like an existential crisis about this edge class almost every week and how to stack the position behind Will Anderson and some of the other blue chip guys. I'm sure we'll get to that. But yeah, it's great to be.

here to talk this topic with the draft basically right around the corner, man. It's good to be on with you guys. Really pumped about digging into that group. I think there's so much to chew on with, you know, those top five or six guys. But before we do that, let's talk about the Jalen Hertz contract. So obviously a bombshell today. And this is the first domino to fall in what I'm assuming is going to be a fairly big summer or fairly active summer for large quarterback contracts for guys of this age.

The initial number is $51 million in AAV, which is the tops in league history. highest per year deal in NFL history, $179,000 in practical guarantees, a little bit less than than Kyler, a little bit more than Russell Wilson, $129 million fully guaranteed through March of 2024, $64 million cash flow over the first two years. I mean, it's just a monster deal. Like the long and the short of it is, it is a monster deal. So Nate, as you were digging into the specifics as you saw the numbers initially, what are your first thoughts about this extension for Jay and

It's a lot of money. 50 is the new 40 and they say 40 is the new 30 and 50 is the new 40 apparently. No, he played outstanding last year. I wanted first and foremost say that and exceeded all expectations. I think people that were optimistic about Jayhoun Hertz were astounded by his play last year. And you're betting on a guy coming off his third year and you're continuing to bet on his ascension as a passer along with being such a fantastic athlete and just player in the pocket and he's learning more to the craftiness of the position. But it is a lot of money and it's a big, big, you know, bet to make on a team that maybe a few years ago already made a bet on a quarterback giving him a big deal after a big year. Maybe he faced some injuries and being Carson Wentz and stuff.

So I think that's kind of funny to almost be repeating this as well. I think Hertz, though, did show more and did continue to descend last year. I am still, now, I'll be honest. I'll be totally frank. Am I still 100,000% completely sold on jail and Hertz? I am not. I'll be honest. It's a totally reasonable stance.

And so that is a lot of money on someone that I am not totally sold where he doesn't have a freaking dream team around him with a play caller that used all of his gifts perfectly. So that is the one downside of this. But Hertz did play well last year. So I do have to say about that there is a lot of money for someone I'm not fully sold on. So I wasn't going to steer us into that territory. I'm trying to be positive. But I thought we might get here because I wanted to ask Deontay.

You have a different perspective on this. As an Eagles fan, when you see these numbers, how do you feel? I mean, of course, there's kind of like the wince when you look at the numbers, pun intended because of the last quarterback, you know, and the big bet on a hot year. Wins, not west, wins. There's me saying a last name. Exactly. You know, but it and it is because of Carson once in terms of a hot year and then a big payday

and a bet on a linear trajectory for this guy going upward. I think that for Hertz, it's awesome, of course, right? You lock in the deal. I think that from the perspective of the franchise, I think it was clear in all their signaling for like the last calendar year that they actually wanted to get a deal done. And it was going to be a matter of how 2022 played out for how he was going to be paid. It's hefty.

The money is hefty, you know. But if we are to assume that if this is who he is for the remainder, of this deal, it probably is a quarterback that's good enough for you to stay competitive if the rest of the roster is right. Now, we'll see kind of along the margins what happens. Obviously, it starts this offseason. You lose the Javon Hargraves. You're going to start to see some attrition as Lane Johnson gets older, as Jason Kelsey gets older,

and they make some different moves along the trenches, which is really the reason why this team has been as it's been and making a quick pivot to being in the Super Bowl this past year. So there is a lot riding on this. I will say that much. There is no dodging that part of it. I think the thing that gives me solace is the infrastructure is built to where if Howard Roseman plays this right from a roster building standpoint around him, especially having surplus draft capital right now.

There is a way to make this a soft landing, even if Hertz does not continue to ascend or kind of tops out, I think it's somewhere between what we saw in 2022 and some of the issues that he had in 2021. Two things can be true at the same time. It can be smart that the Eagles did this early because if you know you're going to do it eventually, you'd rather be first in line than last. Go ask the Cowboys about Dak Prescott and how that worked out for that. But even if it's smart to have done that so you can be the first one to kind of kick things off,

it's still fair to wonder what he will look like when you can't surround him with the super team. Like that doubt and that lingering question can still exist even if the Eagles should have done this at this time. That kind of nails it when you look at the timing of how this money is playing out. What this is is saying, we think we're good enough to be right back where we were this upcoming year. And maybe we'll have another shot at it the year after. And then we'll reevaluate where everything stands past that point. Which I think is a sound, again, it's a sound roster management perspective and a sound money management move. It is just a big bet on what the next two years can look like with Jalen Hertz.

You're making an assumption on what he can do with this roster going forward. and this is the line. I think I'll say, I have the Joe DiMaggio streak of saying this line. In a wide open NFC, you know, this is, again, it makes sense to almost make it.

This is almost like a, like you're just saying right now, Deonti, like a two-year bet. And then reevaluate everything. Devante Smith is still on a rookie deal. AJ Brown's under wraps already. That was got it.

He's a $12 million cap hit next year. I don't understand how this is possible. I guess the numbers really kick up the year after. I think it goes to 26 and 2025. Okay. But they've really kept his number down. in the first couple years of that acquisition. And that makes a lot of sense that it's 2023, 2024.

Okay, then we're going to take a breath. And then then we reconfigure where we're going to use our resources. And this is, again, why having so many draft picks and especially high draft picks and chances, bites at the Apple apparently, or a saying that you can use. When you're paying a quarterback, that's the way you have to team build. You know, that you have to find the cheap talent somewhere else that kind of just, you're just reshifting and reconfiguring the puzzle. And that's what you have to do when you pay a guy.

And this is, this is what it feels to me is that like this year, they're like, hey, even if we get 90% of what we were last year, that's a pretty damn good team. Hopefully, you know, and then Jason Kelsey moves on, we have the succession plan after that. Lane Johnson still under, I think they kind of reworked his deal for a couple years. So like he's under wraps for the next couple of years. So I think that's what it is. It's like a two-year bet. Hopefully he keeps ascending.

If not, if we get 90% of his play last year, that's still pretty damn good. And then we can, in a wide open evidence, see we can repeat it or try and attack and be a final four team again. So here's the landscape in 2025 when those numbers really. start to increase. Jason Kelsey is no longer under contract. Brandon Graham, obviously, Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, Fletcher Cox, Avanti Maddox, and then a couple other guys. So really the pieces that you have under contract that are big number guys, Darius Slay, which he'll be 34, can't imagine he'll be playing at that point. Lane Johnson will be 35. Really the only guys that are of age, we think, all right, they'll definitely get to be here and they're on big money deals. Dallas

Goddard, Jordan Milata. It's kind of really it. I was waiting for another, I was waiting. another name. And AJ Brown. Those are the three names. And that makes sense. And you kind of have to turn the page with Hertz on that rookie contract. And what is that going to look like? You mentioned succession plans.

Cam Juergens is already on the roster, hopefully to step in for Kelsey. Do they draft to tackle sometime in the next two years to be the heir apparent to Lane Johnson with some of that excess draft capital they have? So what they're going to have to do to kind of thread this needle is going to be fascinating to watch. They do a decent job of this kind of stuff to make sure they're planning ahead and they're managing the money in the right way. So it's going to be a tall task for how.

I rose me after handing this out, but they've been able, they deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point. So the one more thing worth mentioning I thought was interesting, no trade clause. One of the corollaries to some of these contract extensions for quarterbacks is, well, even if they're not great, even if they don't age well, you can always deal one. You can always deal a quarterback and get a little something back for them. So the no trade clause actually is kind of an interesting wrinkle in this compared to some of these other quarterback contracts that have been handed out. But I think the other thing we have to talk about is what does this mean? for the next set of guys. Deiate, you mentioned Lamar Jackson on Twitter today. So when you see this deal, what is your first thought as to how it relates to Lamar,

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and then what this summer could end up looking like? That no trade clause is probably going to be just as important to me as whatever the guaranteed number is going to be. That would be one of those. Can we set a precedent for, you know, young quarterbacks moving on to their second deal with some of these big money, you know, big money deals being thrown around to really negotiate hard for a no trade clause. And understanding what the context of the rest of your contract is going to look like around

that, right? Because you never win every piece of the negotiation. So I would say the no trade clause definitely gets added to the priority list upon Lamar Jackson. I was going to say as representation, but no need to go back down that route. And then I think, you know, I mentioned $200 million is like a hard guaranteed number. And I think that that extends past Lamar into the next crop of young quarterbacks looking for their next deal is going to be, how far can we creep up to the $200 million in hard

guarantees, not your springing guarantees, not just your roster bonuses, not your injury guarantees, but really trying to push this number in that 175 to 200 range before we start talking about other incentives and other contract language to get that number inflated. That's really what I'm looking at is for Joe Burrow, almost in particular, because of the organization that he plays for. is what is that number going to look like when he's negotiating against the Brown family? I'm even fascinating with what happens with Tua, you know, and like what goes on there? You know, his injury history.

He ascended last year in that offense and situation that he was in last year. Like, that contract's going to be fascinating to me, too. What goes on there? I think you have to play that out. Oh, yeah. With him, I don't think you can fear the tag when it comes to it. With some of these other guys, I think you obviously can't let it get that far. But with him, I'm buying it.

as much time as I possibly. It's a one year by year deal. Well, it's a lease. I'm going to take out each year. And he's funny to me because of like the Kyler Murray contract. Like how much of that is he going to ask for? You know, am I in? He is probably going to see himself.

If he plays close to what he looked like when he was completely healthy last year, he should look and say, hey, what Kyler got, I can get as that tier below, that top tier of young quarterbacks in the league. And that's going to be fascinating for setting the market for. that level of quarterback going forward. So all of this, I think, has a big effect with what Jaylen Hertz signed and what that means for the actual Tier 1 guys that are coming up and then the guys beneath that. For both Burrow and Herbert, I think it's worth looking at the percentage guaranteed and whether or not we're setting new benchmarks with these sorts of deals after everything

that's happened with Lamar Jackson. The answer is no. About 70% of that total value is being built into those practical guarantees, which is less than Kyra Murray. So it's not as if this is escalating with every single view contract. And I think that it's important to understand the level setting there with how much of this stuff is going to be guaranteed when we see the Burrow and Herbert contracts handed out. Player growth isn't linear and contract raises aren't linear. That is kind of what the J-1-Hertz contract kind of shows. Structure and how they're comprised, right?

And I think that that's important. And so who knows what's going to happen with Burrow and Herbert, but I don't think that we're going to be moving closer toward that fully guaranteed number based on what just happened with Jaywin-Harts. Give Herbert half a bill. let's see what I mean it's just going to be like these numbers are just astounding like even when Rogers did his contract last year yeah last year it that was it's like once you start seeing the numbers on paper it's like anytime pull up disown watson's contract on online it's just

you look at it you're like holy crap it's like you're just entering a new tier of money and that's like something that we always just have to remember the cap's going up and everything but you always have to understand what the market is so it's it's it's a fascinating to watch all right let's do this let's dig into the edge guys in this year's class we're actually going to play a game that dante and i played last year with i think this same positional group because i think it's a i think it's instructive and i also think that because this group is so top heavy some of the categories we did for other positions didn't necessarily feel as applicable to this collection of eddressers so what we're going to do is we're going to play star starter bench bust for the this

group of guys and we're going to put a percentage on all four of those categories for each player. What percentage chance he's going to be a star? So let's say, you know, all pro level or above. Starter, a guy that's consistently going to be a starting player for over the course of his rookie deal. Bench a rotational guy, I guess is probably the best way to say that. And then bust is somebody that is not going to be a contributor to whatever team he's

drafted by. So let's start with the guy at the top of pretty much every non-quarterback list in this class and has been for several years. And that is Will Anderson from Alabama. Deonti, I'm going to give you. the honors here. Let me let's hear the percentages for will Anderson. I want to see this t-shot. So I, I, I'm really good. I'm really glad, Deiate. I want to, I want to see where his ball lies here. So I'm excited. I was celebrating the fact that we opened this with Jalen Hertz because I was in the back of my head. I was debating myself on just how big a hack I want to take on. Anderson. And, you know, Nate knows how much I believe in in him as a player, really for the last couple of season. So if I had to say, set a star percentage on him.

And like I said, we're going by all pro or, you know, perennial pro bowl type of talent, top five, top 10 as your position. I would probably set those odds probably maybe around a 45 to 50% range. Like I think it's a legitimate coin flip. Wow. Love that. I think it's a legitimate coin flip for him, you know. And I think that you try not to be hyperbolic in comps, right?

Which is why I avoid it so much, especially with edge rushers, because people get very specific ideas of what players are supposed to look like. it's really hard when you're watching him as a run defender to not see him plus 15 pounds and turning into what Khalil Mack was as a different outside backer. Like what that means for his pass rush potential, you know, it's hard to say. That's where it's kind of like a tastemaking thing. Like do you need your guy? Do you need to see a leap bend to believe a guy can be a star? You know, is it just a traits thing for you?

Are you looking for hand fighting like the bosses do? And for me, I think that with the arm. arm length and what he does with converting speed to power. And this is going to be a common theme with a lot of these rushers because I think that that's kind of the hallmark of this class is converting speed to power. I think that his arm length with that and he has maybe just enough hip mobility to be a 10 to 12 sat guy at his best year over year. So I feel like with that and the run defense you'll get out of this guy, you can make a

legitimate coin flip on him. That's kind of my feel on him as a star. and I would say probably about 85% for starter. Very quickly, just explain what hip mobility means in this context. So if you're looking at it from a physiological perspective, right, we're talking about how low you can get to the ground while keeping your shoulder square and your hip square, right? So the best way I can say is like, imagine doing a lunge while you're sprinting.

That's kind of what we're talking about with bend, you know. That's what I look at with guys. And what you see with Anderson when you relate to. to him on the field. He is not a Von Miller. I don't have to touch a guy to bend level of rusher. But what he is is I have 34 inch arms. If I get a long arm on a guy, I have enough contact balance to be able to shrink my contact surface and get lower and then work the corner that way. And that's something you see. That's so interesting. That's something you see and got, that's a functional way to win without being the quote unquote ghost rush guy. And the

And I'm super bendy guy. Exactly. So the Burns is in the Von Miller's of the world. Exactly. So when I think about that, I think about almost like a John Anderson type, right? Or John Abraham, excuse me, in Atlanta. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah. Great get off, hands on, contact balance. I can win the corner that way. And if I can't win the corner that way, he has the power, the speed to power ability to be able to crush the pocket and win with the counter that way. And that's kind of the mold that I look at Will Anderson. Like baseline, you can be John Abraham. top end you can maybe be Khalil Mack if you really are able to send that strength to where I think he can get it to. I'm going to be honest with you.

When I went back and watched him, he's obviously very good, right? I mean, the production's insane. But you think, all right, he's only 6'3. The only way is like 245. Like, we're going to talk about this guy the same way. We talk about Von Miller and some of these other top three past Miles Garrett. Like that's the way that we've been talking about him. And what you just said, what you just did over that 90 seconds has sold me more.

than anything that I have heard or listened to about him. Because Kalil Mack is 6.3.250, right? I mean, there are, I think the Kalil Mack comparison and what you can be at that position as a top five pick like Khalil Mack was and articulating the way that you did without that, because the bend does not show up. He's not that kind of player, but you do see some of that the speed to power and that ability to consistently be working toward the quarterback, even if it doesn't look as, doesn't look the same as it has with some of these other elite guys.

So that, well done. Because I came in with some skepticism and that you just sold me very hard. Yeah, that was really good. That, no, I mean, shit, the Khalil Mack, I was so ready to drop that card on this one. And all of a sudden, Deiote nailed it. And I was like, oh, don't even have to talk about. And if you look at their combine numbers, it's astounding how much, how similar they are. Kalil Mack was 251 at the combine.

He got up to mid-260s as a pro. Yeah. And I think, I think Will Anderson has a frame because, like you said, those long arms to get up to 260 and low 260s. And I mean, there's not much to add. I mean, uh, that I, that I can really like contribute here because like when I watch him, that's the same thing. There's a difference in athleticism between explosiveness and burst and flexibility and bend. And he is explosive and has burst, his get off, his speed to power like you said. This is why he, I mean, him on as a penetrator on games and twists, it's a weapon. And just like Khalil was, is, I should still say,

is just a true weapon when he can unlock his team. teammates as well as just disrupting. He's a disruptor. And he did have the stats, especially last year as a sophomore, all those TFLs. He's a disruptor, especially in the run game. And then when you get him crossing face on tackles or tight ends, they have no shot. Because he has that ability. And I'm not comparing them like a one to one player, but you see Nick Bosa do this really well. They keep their shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage as they're running their games and twists. That's a different type of athleticism in a good way. But he's just a force, his contact balance like you spoke to.

There's so many times where he's getting double-teamed or a tackle's hitting him from the side, and he keeps his feet, and he's still wrecking, pushing, push, and pushing, and creating just disruption. And also just, and Deonti, I know you probably know even way more about this, is that how Alabama used him as a four-eye and so much on the inside shade of the tackle, you don't get to see how he's going to probably get used at the NFL leveled all too much, only maybe 10, 12 snaps a game as opposed to 60, he's on the outside, ears pin back, and freaking going. And so you don't really see that pass rush upside because there's not a lot of reps at it. You don't really just see it, even though he does do a lot of good things.

But I think, yeah, he's a little light, but he's surprisingly so strong. He's explosive. He's twitchy. Just a useful player. I put his star percentage at 33%. But I put his starter as like, he's just, to me, it's like, I just don't see any bench or bust to him. But it's just how much star, how much upside do you think he can be?

because I think his downside or his middle tier comparison is a super super super number two. That's a record against the run game. It gets you about eight to ten sacks. Like that's what I see him as a pro player. I just think he's a good player, man. He's just so good. Like he's like a basketball player that you just want taking it to the rack over and over and over. Drawing fouls.

Just create, kicking, you know, popping when he has to, you know, kicking the ball out. I just really like his game. Even if that, yeah, he doesn't have that true, true bend, but he's just a useful. awesome player that's another really really good comparison it's like a guy that just is so good at getting to the rim and is crafty like drawn foul when i was watching him his ability to kind of time a guy's punch and get his hands a guy's hands off of him is really impressive he does that forklift move like the boas do where he's really timing the punch and kind of getting into a guy that way even that like a little subtlety to his game combined with the power like there are a lot of things

that jump out i just my one thing was like all right what is the actual ceiling it does it doesn't he have as high a ceiling as some of these other guys that we talk about. But you guys have definitely sold me. And I think that the guy, again, the slasher getting to the rim comparison is actually really good. Yes. Because you don't want to, you don't want him 25 feet, I sewing a guy. You don't want him doing that. So just get to the rack, man. But he's really good at it. So yeah, it's a lot of fun. And it's funny bringing up, Robert, you bringing up the fact that we had this conversation with last year's class in the conversation we were having there. One of the reasons why, you know, I've been thinking about this so much is like, okay, so what are you,

what are you actually prioritized? And with me and you talking before the show and on the show, one of the things you mentioned is like that bend, that ability to get around corners tight is such a priority, not just for you before evaluators, that it gets hard to see star potential when you don't have that, right? Because we have such a clear idea of what it looks like when you have it. And what I had to work with with Anderson is like, okay, if I divorce myself from that thought, and just go by a manner of checking boxes of what else you can do as a pass rusher, you're going to have a really hard time finding all the other things that he cannot do. I'm like, okay, well, if you're telling me that you can do it all but that,

and you spent maybe 40% of your time as like a defensive tackle that you would expect to be 315 pounds, taking on tackle, you know, taking on double teams as a four-eye, and then having to expand out and work, you know, that contact balance as I try to work a pass-rush angle off of that. Like, okay, there's enough there for me to see once you're in a scenario where, hey, you're always a nine technique, we're either dropping you into the flats or you were attacking a quarterback and you are always setting an edge for us. I can definitely see the pro ball, all pro level talent coming from him in that kind of

context. It wasn't even the bendy stuff to me. It was just that a lot of these guys we've seen talked about in this way are otherworldly outlandish athletes. Like, I mean, you look at the testing, you look at the jumps and you look at what Devin and Clowny was and what Miles Air was. the three cone times like with the boses the 40 and the jumps weren't the same as some of these other guys but nick bosa's change direction numbers are insane like the shuttle and the three-com timer is insane

and we don't have those numbers for will i understand so i'm just looking at this like oh he's six four six three and three quarters two fifty three you know the 10 year split is really good and the 40 number is really good but it's not we don't have the same kind of eye-popping stuff we do for some of these other guys but everything you've said does sell me and i've gotten to a point where i'm trying to get over the bendy stuff because i think that it's been a blind spot for me. And I think the ability to kind of push the pocket and affect the game and the way that he does is something I've tried to be a little bit more attuned to.

So it's again, the arguments both of you guys made are very, very strong. And this is beyond even getting to the football character stuff. I mean, he is lauded as like a human being and like the presence he's going to be when he gets there. Yes. S tier worker, leader, just everything you want. Like that is everything you want in the building. It's again, well done by both of you. All right.

So we're not going to talk about him in any other capacity because we're not doing an interior defensive lineman show. But really quickly before we moved on to our next edge rusher, Deontze, I wanted to kind of get your temperature on what you think Jalen Carter looks like compared to Will Anderson as one of these like elite elite prospects. You think Will Anderson as like a 50-50 shot of being a star. Is Jalen Carter that same sort of prospect for you? I mean, I'm talking solely like on the field production. I did so. Okay. I put those two in a, and basically.

the exact same tier where I feel confident saying it's basically a coin flip between whether or not they're a star. And it's all just like it's skill set, it's explosiveness, right? You know, with Carter, again, divorcing what we know about from the combine through the pro day, which was obviously like as low as stock can get for a guy that you know

is a blue chip talent. You turn back on the tape. It's like, okay, like, there's no way that this fails. You know? That translates. You don't see this stuff fail very. very often. Like at worst, we're talking like endomic and Sue, you know, level guy. And I think that that, if you get that level of production out of this guy, you take that top 10 because you don't

get an opportunity to get that, especially with the rest of this defensive tackle class behind them. Because I would say that none of the other guys have first round grades. Nate, how do you feel about that? Do you feel like they're in the same kind of class? Yeah, even when I did the star starter, you know, broke it all down. I had a 0% bench, but then I put 10% bust just because I'm off-field stuff. Yeah. And that's, that's it.

Not on, like you said, nothing on field is about it. Even some of the, you know, he's getting knocked some of his effort issues. I haven't really seen that as a concern at a, I don't see it.

I don't know where that's coming from. Because when I watch these games and maybe, I watch four games on them and, you know, some of the big games, but also watch middle season games where they're not going up against the best talent. No concerns.

I had none where I'm like, yeah, man, I see him trotting after the ball and getting after the ball. I, like when it plays away from him, I don't know. So maybe that's more. bay when people are like talking to people in the building or something, but I do not see it

just watching it on tape. But man, this guy's a mauler. He's a monster with scheme versatility. Mallor's, he has some box score stats, but they just do so much to help out their teammates. But man, he's like second in this class. I love SIS's kind of info that we have. Thank you for that login information. But second, yeah, but he's second amongst defensive tackles and hand-on ball percentage, which is PbU's force fumbles, force recoveries. So he's seconded that percentage. So it's not like he's just like, oh, this guy's just traits and we're projecting upside with him. He's second highest in pressure rate. He's highest in true pressure rate among defensive tackles, which is just true dropback situations.

So you have traits, like just true freaky traits. This guy on last year's defense, which was considered one of the greatest defenses is all time in college football and how many guys went to the NFL level. He was the guy that stood out the most. That matters to something. You're saying that like, without starting. Yeah. And you're this guy's just some, he could be a penetrator. If you have a one gap scheme, he can hold up in a two gap scheme.

He has versatility. He can be, he can align the nose. He can be a three tech. He can go four eye if you need them. Like, it's just, he does so much for you. Like, I'm not saying he's going to reach this level, but like the high end, if everything works out for this guy, goes in a right situation, everything, my place down upside comparisons, Kevin Williams.

I, I mean, that's an all decade player. He has that potential, though, which is crazy. But yeah, that is what I picture. When I watch this guy, I'm like, this. is freaking Kevin Williams. He can do it all. He might never ever be like, oh, my guy, he's getting 12 sacks and penetrating through the middle, but he's going to rack up sacks and TFLs and just mess things up for

offenses. He's a true game wrecker. And, yeah, his on-field play is just astounding to watch. He's really, really fun. Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech. I'm going in order of Dane's draft board here is what I'm doing. I figured this would be an easiest way to kind of organize it. Deante, where are you at with Tyree Wilson?

Star Star, Star, or Bench, Bust. I don't have anywhere near the same. kind of star percentage for the rest of this class as I do with Anderson. Like I would put Wilson star percentage and maybe that kind of 25 to 30 percent range. And even that's, you know, it's relatively generous, you know, but I'm at 20 to 25, so we're right in the same ballpark. And the way you see that working is just like the power that he plays with, you know, you watch him as a four eye.

You watch him when he's aligned as a defensive tackle in pure drawback situations. and he is just laying tackles in quarterback's laps, you know, working hump moves as a guy who's really not even all that refined as a pass rusher, you know, really almost relying almost solely on that explosiveness when he actually does get off the ball and just leaning on guys and using that arm length, almost seven foot arm length to, you know, walk guys back to the quarterback, discard guys and finish on the ball that way. So when you see that, that's the stuff that pops.

And then there are all the smaller details, which is to me for a guy that I think not has not just a below average, I would say a poor get off a lot of times to still be able to hold the point as a run defender, play on the interior the way that he does, make plays in the backfield, produce the way that he does as a guy that has a lot to work on with getting off the ball. I think that there's a lot to be said for him being a safe starter. So I would say a starter percentage is probably close to that 70 to 75% range, especially for the teams that are going to value his body type and skill set.

You think about Ryan Nielsen in Atlanta if they were interested in him. You would think about the Dennis Allen tree of the 4-3 defense. So, you know, if Steve Wilkes was up at the top of the draft, I know he will be pounding Kyle Shanahan's table to get an edge like that, you know, to play in that kind of, you know, that Sean McDermate, all the guys who come from the Jimmy Johnson tree of 4-3 defense, that's the kind of guy he's made for. And in that scheme, everything he does is exactly what.

what you're looking for. So, you know, you hear the Marcus Davenport comes and it makes a lot of sense. You hear, you know, all those guys that played edge really for the Saints, it makes a lot of sense because he's going to fit that 270 plus long arm, big body, edge rush guy who can set the edge as a 4-3 guy and then power rush on the way to the quarterback. I mean, I, I, similar percentages as you, Deonté, it's really funny. I put it at, I wrote my notes. I said 22% star because I was like, I was going to say 20 or 25. So I literally just did the exact. same thing. I've,

28 for and I, yeah, and then like starter I went 65 to 70%. So we're right in the same ballpark here. And I, this is a guy I coming in, watch him a few months ago and then watch him again this past week,

you know, as I transitioned the eye of Soron to the defensive side. They, that, like I really, I really like his game. I love his balance. I love his strength.

I really, he has good effort. He retraces down the field to make plays. Yeah. And which is like even, he's just like an easy mover. So it's one of those where you don't realize how he's moving because he's so big and long. And then you're like, man, he's eating up ground as he's getting around the edge.

And that I like to, is a guy that really, as you watch him more and more, you're like, man, there's something to this guy. I understand why he's projected to be a top 10 pick. But he can, I like his versatility. You're talking about in the four three defenses. And I even think if he gets into these teams that are more in the Fangio or even what the ramps have done or Staley has done when he's that kind of.

of like Bradley Chub type role, I think that would be a really good ass for him because he does have some ability to drop into coverage. He can set the edge. He wrecks tight ends. Tight ends have no shot against this guy, which is what you want to see is not a thing where it's like, oh, he projects. Well, I wish he would do better against the tight ends. This 240 pound guy that's never blocked a guy who's really getting up. He dominates these guys. So good. That's a big plus in his favor. But I also think he has a versatility, bump outside like you said. So see him as a four eye, a five tech, a stand up to dropping the coverage or an outside guy. Good effort.

I just, yeah, the big concern is he's slow off the ball, can play too high, but I think that's teachable. You know, he might not have that elite get off, but you can still teach guys how to get low. Get them under, what do you get them? Get the pads. Hit the pads. Let's work on that pad level, man. Let's get some drills. You can do that.

And even the metrics are outstanding for him. He was first and pressures per game, tight third and true pressure rate, first and pressure plus minus, which is based on the expected number that SIS has. So he has some productivity. It's not just again. It's not just projecting traits. Big fan of this. It's a great point.

Yeah, big fan of this game. He was 13th. According to PFF, it was 13th in Power 5 in past rush win rate and seventh in past rush productivity. So it's not just that it's all that arm length. This isn't Trayvon Walker last year where we're talking ourselves into the frame and he hasn't shown. There be a guy layer in the show we talk about like that, though. I, do I'd say the other thing with Harry Wilson that I was like a little bit impressed by a little bit surprised by us for a guy that's as big as he is and has as much length as he does,

it's got more wiggle than I thought he would have. And that gets back to what Nate is saying is like his movement or his size almost belies his movement ability. Yeah. Because it's just hard to conceptualize. So I power forward basically having that wiggle, you know, having that agility with his feet. And that's where you can start talking yourself into the star potential. So like, okay, if I can just get you to get your big ass out of your state,

dance when it's time to get after the quarterback, a lot of the tools are there. And then you talk about the comfort, the contact balance, the comfort that he has to play outside, you know, outside of your usual kind of frame in terms of making contact with guys and having your feet away from your body and your base and still being able to generate power and being able to drop your hips and really kind of activate all the strength that you need to be able to crush the pocket from the edge, especially in the kind of schemes, like I said, that I think that he'll play best. in, all that's there. And that's why when you watch, you say, okay, there's something to this guy that maybe you would not assume for a defensive end that's not leading the entire college football FBS in SACS at his size and the Big 12, right?

That to me was things like, all right, there's more to his game that you'll see watching All 22, watching a full game tape, then you'll get in a splash reel. You know, that that's where I'm really intrigued in him. and again, all this stuff translate to him being a run defender as well. And what we're seeing with light boxes and what you need out of your defensive ends and setting edges, this is the guy that checks the boxes in the ways that I think transcend what we were talking about with Trayvon Walker last year. I wanted to ask you, Jadz, if you were stacking him up, would you have him second after Will Anderson if you were ranking these guys? That's probably the guy I'm second most comfortable in in this class. Okay. I agree with that.

All right. Let's keep moving down the list here. next guy is Lucas Van Ness from Iowa. Do you have to? Where are we at? Oh man. Dane, don't help me.

Don't hurt me. Please, Dane, don't hurt me. He's been, he's been the guy. Dane has been the guy that's been pounding the table on this for a while. He really kind of hit me to what he could be.

But if we're talking star potential, I'm saying 20%, but I'm putting an asterisk on there because I'm like, it's 20% based on tools and what he can actually turn this into. but not necessarily reflective of what my belief in him as a player is when we talk about star potential. And without it, I don't say this to be harsh when I evaluate his game. I think it's really just a statement of fact that when you watch him as a pass rusher,

he doesn't actually have a plan yet. Now, if you're optimistic on what you can do with the fact that he's as fast, as explosive, as agile, and has the physical frame that he has, you think, hey, if I get this guy, one go-to move, at worst, I might have Alex Highsmith last year, which is just a guy that can get off the ball and just be productive opposite a star pass rusher. But if I'm talking about top flight, pro bowl, all pro level, reset the market edge guy on your second contract, that's where I have a really hard time seeing the picture, which is why I have them more of it was like a late first, take a flyer, give him some time behind other guys so he can learn some of the finer detail.

details in being a pass rusher, that's where I would be more comfortable with him. And I think that that range of kind of maybe 15 to 20 percent on star potential, that's kind of why I land on him where I do. So what does the other side of the tail look like then? What do you think? If that's your upside concerns, what does the downside potential look like in your mind? The downside potential to me is that he's a guy on the edge that you have to play because he helps against the run.

But anytime it's dropped back, you don't feel like you're going to get road production out of him. that's that's the downside of the worst manifestation of that skill set he's not a bender so you take that off the board he's not really a hand fighter but he's strong he's strong but he's not a hand fighter so you have questions about like okay what are your counter moves going to look like when you're not able to be a three technique with experienced edges outside of you that demand one-on-one attention as well that's kind of a question that's up in the air for me too and then i'm thinking like okay with that strength, what does that look like against top tier NFL talent?

You're probably shrinking the percentages on how often he's able to create pressure to. So those are my concerns of the questions that I think he's going to have to answer on his rookie deal in order to get me around to where I think Dave and some of the guys that have been really high on Van Nets have been in this pre-draft process. So you think that there's even a decent chunk where he's just a rotational player, where he's not like a starting level edge? I think so. I would say that the ideal starting place for him, the same way that, you know, you were talking to the offensive line guys about creating the right situations for him.

I think that this is a guy that is 100% in that same boat. He's not a guy you can just drop in and say, hey, six technique, nine technique, pin your ears back, go get it. You're not going to get production out of him right out the gate that way. At least I don't believe so. I think if he can be part of a rotation, just like how he was in Iowa, or it's like, hey, we're going to drop him on third down, second and obvious. first down against teams that are very spread where you're not going to have to deal with thinking a whole lot. You can really just go up the field and figure it out along the way. That I think is a nice role for him. I would be really hesitant about some of these top 10, top 12 teams that are going to

need immediate help. Like if I'm Houston, I'd much rather wait. If I get a chance to trade back, we can talk about that in the 20s. That's not something I'd want to do with like the 12th pick if I'm the Texans. Where are you at, Nate? Yeah, my star potential, here was 15% and starter was 60% so I kind of I see him. I got 65 on starter so we're really close again. And I have 20% bench and then I think no matter what he'll have a role because he just has the tools. He stuff.

So I don't see the high bust, but it's just like how much you're getting out of it. Because it's one of those, it's Bud Dupree is always in my mind when I watch a guy like this where it's like, oh, look at the tools. Oh, look at that flash and then they just never get there. Yeah, Bud DeBre had the one really productive year and they got paid handsomely off of it. But that was the one productive year. truly productive year of his career and helps have T.J. Watt on the other side to help out with that. And so not a lot of polish as far as repertoire of moves, but he does have that speed to power

and true strength and length and explosive ability. Like that's the thing that stands out. He's so strong. Set the edge in a run game can kick inside and pass rush downs, which is, which is important because more teams are doing that. So you can maybe have that upside of that Arden Key type where you can kind of like move him around. But it's one of those things too that he's a baby, you know, he's a Richard's sophomore, and you can tell he's still coming along. He was productive, even though despite being on a limited pitch count, he was productive in that time. Like, he did have sacks and TFLs and all those types of things, but it's one of those

where let's make his rule narrow to start out. Let him figure it out and let him fly off the ball and we get that before we start bouncing him around. So it's all upside with this guy. I'm with Deontes in the sense that I'd be much more comfortable outside the lottery taking him. You know, after pick 15. Okay, now we can start looking at this guy

And especially in a draft like this, why not take a flyer on this guy in the 20s? So I do really like him. He also hits the broad jump short, or I'm sorry, three cone thresholds I always look at. He had a 910 broad jump, which is better than a 9 foot 9 that I look at. And he was, I had a 702 three cone. I look at 7.2 and under those are just the numbers I look at. He did have those. He drew three holds last year.

He had a couple block punts in his career. So he did have some stuff where he's like, okay, there's a role for this guy as maybe your third best pass rush to start out his career being freaking banshee on special teams while he figures everything else out put this guy as a gunner like just like Brian Burns was as a rookie put this guy outside ran a 458 40 at 275 where they where they feed him at your high school man like that was you said listen you said i was waiting for the second part of that because which high school do you go to robert i was waiting about how nice you guys were going to be before i dropped that i was now now i feel a little less apt to talk about yeah but i like this guy it's just

that he's an upside pick he's a he's a bit of a home run pick if you have this team situation for him i totally i can get on board for him but if you're coming in going like this guys are ace like the bears like okay this guys are ace a that's a little scary for me it's like yes he could get there but it might be a little dicey and you just don't know if he has the help it's a support system to start out with yeah he grew he grew up i think 90 seconds from that's awesome that down down the street so it was funny reading dane's draft guide entry about him talking about him playing for the barrington wings youth hockey club which is where my brother played that's funny so i will say he started both ways at barrington and high school at an offensive defensive line that doesn't happen very often

so that that is pretty impressive he was able to do that so i mean listen you guys do though they don't they don't give i mean it's we've done okay you know that's got some freaks scottie miller ran a four three you got you got some freaks coming out of high school what do you guys feed them. I, uh, I hope he does well, but I, you guys are definitely, it's a cold shower here about Lucas Van Ness with the conversation that we just had. All right. Let's get to Nolan Smith here from Georgia. The next guy on Dane's board, which, what's your star number on Nolan Smith? And let's go from there. Nolan Smith is funny to me because I feel like of the entire Eddresh class. He's probably the one I think is like most accurately pegged. Like, no, there seems to be like very little

debate about where he lands. Nolan Smith to me, you're not drafting this guy for star potential. So I've got him in kind of like that 5 to 10% range. I've got 5. So that's where I'm at with him. But that's not, and it's fine because that's not the selling point. And he's also not a guy that we're talking about is like a top 12 pick on the edge. Right. Like this is a guy you would like to get, you know, early second, you know, maybe, maybe late first.

If you're a 314 that is like absolutely starved for a versatile, you know, edge rush guy that can maybe turn into something. And to me, I think that what you, the reason why you get him is a lot of. of the same reasons why we, the same things that we close of Will Anderson conversation with. Just like everything else you get with having a Nolan Smith. You're going to have your first guy in, last guy out type of guy. You hear him speak at the combine or any time there's a microphone in front of his face and you see like, all right, this is going to be quintessential team first guy, quintessential coach's favorite, you know, he's not going to complain about carrying someone's helmet or the bags, you know, and you're going to get a guy that prepares, you know. I think,

I think I made mention of it when he was at his media availability at the Combine, but I'm listening to him talk about fitting counter. And as an edge rusher, you really only have like one job when you're fitting gap scheme, right? But he's talking about the entire picture. Oh, what does fitting counter mean when you're an apex defender as a defensive interior guy, as an edge guy? So it's like, okay, I can tell when you're sitting in with Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann and all the guys at Georgia, this stuff is ingrained in your mind in a way that's going to make you an effective player, a high IQ player. And then you take what he is on the field, which is like a legitimate speed guy. You watch him disengage and get out on the perimeter and pursuit. And I'll

have to rewind the play to confirm that the ball got out as far as I thought it did. Like there's no way an edge rusher went from taking on a tackle to being out at the numbers or outside the hash as quickly as he got there. You look at him as a spy and he's. You look at him as a spy. And he's does that chasing down guys like Bryce Young in a national title game a couple of years ago. You know, the effort rushes, the second efforts, the third efforts. And then you see a guy who for 240, so 240 pounds is maybe the biggest dog as a run defender as we have in this class. He's so fucking tough, dude. It doesn't make sense.

Yeah. He's so tough. Taking on guards, taking on these huge 265 pound tight ends on split zone and counter and power and taking on, you know, as a nine technique set in edges. And then that tells me like, okay, it's not an act. What you hear about him, what you see when he's in public, none of that is an act because a 235-pound guy would have every excuse to take a step back before you take on a block on counter.

You know, so you get that versatility, you get the high motor, you get the effort plays. And I think if you give him a role where we're not saying, hey, we need you to get eight to 12 sacks a year. It's, you'll be dropping in the cover. Every time we have an exotic, we're building it around you. You're going to be the guy that nobody knows. Are you dropping to the hook?

Are you dropping to the flat? Are you working a twist? Are you just going to be a regular edge rush type? That's something that I think would be valuable for teams. So it's really not a star play as much as can we get a plus starter? And I think that there's a pathway to make that happen for Nolan Smith. So what's your concern then about the upside? Is it just that he's not built to be like an every down edge rusher consistently?

The size thing is a real concern. And it's like, you know, if you're a small guy, this is where I think the smaller you are, the more of a conversation of being a bendy athlete is triggered in a conversation. And he doesn't play for bend. You know, he plays for motor. You know, he pass rushes as a motor guy. Grig get off. He's not always going to turn the corner.

And when he can't turn the corner on you, when he can't beat a tackle to his last step or beat him to the back end of the pocket, you're really just talking about standing. and then a guy waiting to see where the quarterback is relocating and then just chasing him down from there, which is fine. At you player. At you. Everything's at you. It's at you. At you 40 is a little bit at different.

It can be concerning. And then, you know, for as nice as it is for what he is as a run defender, you're talking about 240 pounds. If he's an off-ball linebacker, hey, I'm all for it, you know? If he's an off-ball linebacker and you're Seattle in the late 20s, hey, why not? go grab him. I'd rather have him than Trenton Simpson or, you know, Drew Sanders, you know, as a guy who can be a project behind Jordan Brooks and whatever the corpse of Bobby Wagner is this year. You can hand it off to him after that.

But as an edge rusher, a true... He's a thriller level now. A true to form, a true to form edge rusher, that's not there as much as you would like to have it. Yeah. All right. So I'll put you on the spot. You talk about the ways that he can be used in some of those Zoddx dropping into coverage. What do you think is a good landing spot for his skill set and role somewhere in the first round?

I said Seattle, I feel like in almost every mock draft that I have, I end up in those late 20s. And I'm like, all right, we're starting to get slim pickings here if you're talking about premium edge talent. And it's a nice, it's an easy landing spot for them because you know that there's just a need to have functional players on the edge for them. You look at the Giants, they've got a little bit. If you want to have a guy who can maybe compete to play on the edge, that might be something. Dallas, you can see because they're a bare front team. They just like having speed, you know,

if they want to just load up more on their defensive front and maybe do more with Michael Parsons off the ball when he's not on the edge, you can sell me on that. So I would say, you know, you're talking from 23, 22, 23 on, from the Ravens down the line for your three, or multiple front teams, I think that you can make a pretty good argument for getting him in that range. So I'm looking at an ad mock draft right now that has him at 13 to the Jets.

And Dane has him at 11 on his big board. So you are a little bit more pessimistic than some of the slotting that has gone on here with some other people. I would say so. I mean, he's a very fun watch. It's an easy evaluation because of how twitching an athlete he is and how hard he plays. So I don't mind evaluating him higher. than some of the other guys.

But when we're talking about application to the NFL game, that's where I really start having questions. Yeah. I'm right there. I had 5% star and then 80% starter. Like I just like this guy is going to be useful. And just he's a modern jack. You know,

like that that's what he is. Or an old school 3-4 sandbacker. Like that's, which is the off ball guy in a 335 defense. What are we going to say? So here's here's, I'll ask you. I want to kind of interrogate that a little bit.

80% star in the right situation, I would have to be certain. Because if it's that narrow of a role, then he has to be in the right spot or it can go pretty fast. I don't want this guy in a hand in a dirt, four, three on first and second down. I want him like Bruce Irvin. Like that's how I picture Nolan Smith is a lot like Bruce Ervin's play style. Good athlete, tough as shit. Good as a coverage dropper.

Fine pass rusher, but not your ace. And it doesn't have a great anchor. You know, he'll work his ass off. you'll fight, fight, fight, fight, fight. It's not because of want to. It's just sometimes he's 240. And some of those tackles are 320 and they're going to move him off the ball.

But he'll work his ass up and fight. Yeah, limited as a pass rusher as far as Arsenal. And again, but he fights and has athleticism. Really good crossing face, you know, as games and dialing up like exotics like Deonté was talking about. So I think his upside is as that number two guy. And this guy's just tough. Like he really is as long as being to have those athletic traits.

He doesn't wear gloves like that. If you just want to see what his point, place style. This guy does not wear gloves. I can't, I'm trying to rack my brain when I saw that and watching him because that's how I was, I could find them. It was like, oh, there's a guy without gloves on. And that's how you just find these guys. Usually it's receiver. It's like, oh, that guy wears the sleeve. Um, but Georgia rotates their guys. So I actually had some issues. But I'm watching them and, and just I'm trying to wreck my brain. What's the last defense alignment that doesn't wear gloves down to down. I. Trey Hendrickson. Yeah, duh. Right. Right.

As I said, there was the long snap. And what do you say? Another try heart, you know? Another try hard, tough guy with, you know, does a lot of things well, but nothing great. And I like this guy. And I don't want to say he's safe or anything, but I can easily project this guy in certain defenses like this guy, but in a modern scheme or a modern scheme that does more three down with the stand up guy or tight midfronts where that they did at Georgia.

I could see that translating really, really well. It's just that, you know, that upside might not be there. And but he's just, yeah, tough player. He's going to work hard. It has some athleticism, do some stuff, and he does a lot of things well, but just maybe doesn't have that true. This guy's getting 12 sacks for you. This guy might be like a six, seven sack guy, but this guy will take on every block. This guy brings, Nolan Smith brings the noise if someone tries a pull or trap at him.

You were talking about the counterplay and how he knew everything's going on. Not only that he knows what's going on, he knows what he has to do, and he will thud up that guard. Like he does not care. And it's awesome. Just seeing a guy bring the noise like that. Fun watch. To me, I want to ask Robert this as a Bears fan, like, when you look at Leonard Floyd's career in Chicago, how do you feel about that being the ninth overall pick? Because he's in the same kind of range.

And I think about. Exactly. And that's really the conversation that we're having here. That's his role. If he would be a Leonard Floyd, you think about what he's been for the Rams and, hey, sometimes you're dropping in coverage. Really, we're just having you here because we need a body to set the edge. And you play hard enough to be able to set the edge. And then on pass rush, it's, hey, whatever we get out of you, man.

We're just applauding that we got some clean-up sacks. You know, maybe they're playing a backup right tackle. Yeah, you beat them. You get in the barefront where it's like, okay, we know they can't help. So if you do win, you've got a good pathway to the QB, that's probably about where this tops out. And again, that's not a top 10, really top half of the draft, top half of the first round guy to me. I would much rather take that swing early second where it's a character guy. I don't have to put a fifth-year option on you.

but I know I can get starter level production from you basically from the day you step in the door. Yeah, based on the conversation that we're having right now, I'm getting firmly and more firmly, let me do that again, five, four, three. Based on the conversation we're having now, I'm drifting closer and closer to the offensive tackle and tradeback. Yes. It's kind of where I'm sitting right now. You should just be holding up a sign for Paris Johnson. Paris Johnson.

Yeah, there it is. Just hold up a sign. We want Johnson. All right. Next guy here is Miles Murr. Murphy from Clemson. That's the next guy in Dane's rankings. Deontay, where are you at with Miles Murphy?

Star Star Star Star. I've been clutching onto this stock all year long and I won't let go. If I'm going to say star potential, we'll be modest. We're still talking, I think, 15%ish range, maybe 20% if it all happens, you know, if it all comes together for him. But he's another high percentage starter guy. Like to me, this is another guy that's in that 65. 70% starter hit rate. You're going to get real power on the edge.

When we talk about all the get-off problems you have, a Tyree, none of that exists with Miles Murphy. In fact, he gets off the ball so well. It's almost like Aiden Hutchinson last year where it's like, how much of this is speeding and how much of this is you just timing up snap counts. You know, like there is a certain degree of that. Caming the system a little bit. And then he goes out and he runs like.

I will say he had a 1-5-9, 10 yards point of his brain. And I think a 4-5-140 at like 200. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So when he opens it up, there's real speed there. And that to me is like, okay, for what we were just talking about with Nola Smith is like a high effort guy, but he's maybe a little small. We're talking about another explosive twitchy athlete.

Whether or not you get a lot out of him as a pass rusher, I think, again, is up to what you think about power rushers. But he's going to be a good run defender. And again, back to that four-three defense. Within that archetype, like I've been looking at a 6-5-275-pound edge rusher with speed and long arms work in the NFL from the day I was born. Yes. That archetype has lasted as long as it has for a reason. And he checks all the boxes. You know, when you're just talking about blind test taste test, you know, that's what he is.

You turn on the tape. You see him win really more kind of clean-up rushes. if he gets a beat on you, if the get-off works, he can definitely turn a corner. You're not getting bend. You're really not getting some of the inside counters that you'd like to have, you know, that would separate a guy of his stature from what you see out of a Miles Garrett as a top-end pass rush, right? Yeah. A guy who has all the tools.

He's not there. He's definitely a step behind. But as a secondary rusher, I'm taking a flyer on this because if it all works, there could be a 10-sat guy in there for multiple years. Yeah. this is uh i mean this guy just looks like a true dude even this is back before edge was the term this guy's a defensive end like this is a traditional defensive end through and through um man the guy that salivating what oh dude speaking of the bucks the guy that this guy reminds me off is every

dn the bucks have had from the last like decade like jason pierre paul and william goldston this is what this guy looks like and plays like he's like in between those two like as far as maybe talent level but man just gets his hands on balls for PbUs he's a sound tackler he has that i i'm with you i have a pretty low star percentage i think i did yeah i did 5% star but high high high starter percentage with this guy and because i just see that he does his job and sometimes that's not always sexy but he does his job and doesn't sometimes flash like maybe there's other guys but doesn't always show off those gifts like he tested to but he doesn't have that true true bend that jason pyr paul head, but there's so much to his game where

gets his hand on the ball, gets his hand on the ball, pushes the pocket, uses his length, does enough in the run game, does enough against the pass, that I really like it. There's a lot of times where he's set in the edge, and the running back has to bounce something because he's pushing the tight end or tackle back, and the runnerback has to go off his path.

And that matters. Those are the in-between plays that don't always show up in the box score. So, like, as a second half of the first round, early first half of the second round type guy, I like him a lot. Just like a fine player that checks a lot of boxes that still has a little bit of upside that maybe tap into. But yeah, his test, he doesn't always test or play to his testing numbers, but you can see the traits when you watch them. The only, my question with him, Deontay, looking at the production this year, if you look at these top six guys that we're going to talk about, all of them were at least in the top 25 to 30 in all of the advanced pass rush metrics.

If you look at the PFF numbers, he was 101st of a hundred and first of a hundred. 99 power 5 defensive ends in pass rush win rate and 137th in pass rush productivity. How do you square that with a relatively optimistic viewpoint on him? This is what I say I'm clutching onto the stock, it really comes back to that get off, the speed that I know that he has, and he does have legitimate pro level arm length, and he can convert speed to power. We just don't, I think if he's in a situation like Lucas Van Ness, where I get to be a three technique on third.

downs, then I do think that we see those numbers go up a bit. I think that with him, and that's been the hardest thing to square is like, what does that project to at the NFL level? And it might mean that he's not going to be a high number of sat guy. I just think as a secondary rusher as a power rush or pocket crusher type, I can still see the picture of that working. And if it's not that, then maybe he's not a top half of the first round pick like I think he can be.

but if you get him in the 20s to 30s or maybe into the 40s, if he does slide, you're going to get a plus run defender. I think that the best way I can describe him is if you watch his film as a pro scouting guy, he may never get a plus plus on a play, but he'll almost never have a negative. You'll almost never negatively grade this guy. Dude, that's exactly how I kind of graded him. Like, just my notes right here. I was like, he just doesn't have bad plays, even if he doesn't have the flash plays.

And sometimes it seems to me maybe his play recognition is step slow and he'll stop his feet. Yes. And so I don't know what that sometimes that's how it's kind of coached where they're like, hey, read and react. And it's like, oh, let's go. Go. Go, go. Make a mistake. Make it fast.

I know you guys have to be Gap Sound on defense over there. But that's just me watching as an offensive guy. But sometimes he doesn't have that plan and doesn't unlock himself. But then there's times that he does. And you're like, oh, there it is. Yes. That, there it is. another guy that grew on me the more I watched him.

So I understand why Deante has optimistic views of them because it's like one of those guys, you watch maybe a half and you're like, okay, you know, fine. I understand because of the traits. And then you watch two games of them, three games of him. He grows on you because like you said, there's not a lot of bad plays, which matters. If you're on the field for 40 snaps and 30 of them are fine and 10 of them are winning place, well, that's a positive player right there. That's a type of player he is.

That's a starter. the one quirk before we move on that is hilarious tiny hands he has he has the smallest hands yes in of any defensive end in the last 20 years at the combine his hands are smaller than mine he doesn't make any sense it doesn't i thought it was a typo that is hilarious because he has long arms like everything else about his frame yeah is totally normal and like very prototypical defensive end stuff and he has tiny hands even if his hands were normal size his arm length would be even longer. That's how long as ours are. He's eight and a half inch hands.

His hand percentages is his zero percentile hands. Oh, that's really funny. Just a very random thing. All right. Last guy here that we're going to talk about is B.J. OJolari from LSU. Deonti, where are you out with B.J.O.J.J.L.R. If we're talking star percent of

that does not sound good. I want to hear what your number is. I, because I don't want to kick this off of this because I think that there are things to I will throw it at Nate. I will throw this one in eight first. I might my star percentage for him is two percent. Okay.

I can exhale because I have and then I have. Okay. I've, I've 40, 45 percent starter and 45 percent bench. And I mean it more as like a super role player bench. I'm not saying like this guy should never play. But that's that's kind of where you want me to get through my notes or you want to go through. Yeah, please go ahead. Okay.

I kind of, one thing I will say, he's young. I'll start off with that, but he'd probably best use as another guy I use as a Jack or an old school Sam Lineberger type in a 3-4. And I think that's where he'll idealistically be. Another guy that's kind of solid at everything, but nothing really great. He'll flash some band, but it's not outstanding. He'll flash some good hand usage, but not all the time. He's like a solid mover on games of twist, but not outstanding, especially when you watch the other top guys and then you watch him. And you're like, oh, yeah, that doesn't really get me going.

Whenever you see an LSU guy wearing number 18, you're always, your antenna is going to go up going like, okay, well, this guy has to be a tough, hard worker. So obviously, I think he was a team captain. So obviously he has that and some of the intangibles in his favor. He's not overly strong. Sometimes he doesn't disengage from blocks. And that kind of makes me a little antsy. If you're going to be on the outside like that, taking on those types of blocks, I want to at least see you win half of those or at least do enough to make it messy on the outside. I think sometimes he could be driven off a little bit.

I still think that he does have a frame to grow into. He does do a lot of nice things. I don't want to just totally damn this guy, but I do think he is a half tier below, even guy like Murphy, where I see this guy as a second rounder, like just truly as my grade, middle second round type, but I do like his game. But I just think that not overly, nothing overwhelming, more solid at everything type of player. But you're just betting that maybe there's a little more upside to tap into.

So you think there's a pretty big drop off between the rest of the group that we just talked about in Ojo Lari? Yeah, I would say huge drop-off. Like, he's close to Murphy. Yeah, like, yeah, like Nolan Smith and Miles Murphy, I consider kind of the same tier, even if their roles will be different. You know, it's kind of back half of the first round guys. I mean, maybe I like Nolan Smith a tad bit, but then I think it's a half tier after that.

So like those guys I consider a late first round, early second round types. This guy I consider more, this guy being, uh, Ojolari being more of a middle, late second round type. He'll probably sneak up because out of this draft is going to go, though. Exactly same both. So now that Neda said what he said, I feel much better what my takeaways were. Because if I had to bake it down into like one sentence after watching his film, like the thing I kept asking myself is like, what about this am I supposed to love?

Right. If I am a GM, if I am a director of player personnel and a scout comes back to me and I'm asking him about BJ Ojalari, we're going to get far into the conversation, I think, before I hear the thing, that is supposed to make me fall in love with the guy as a potential first round pick, right? The sales pitch with him is, hey, long arms and he's a baby. Yeah, that's it. He's not soft. He plays hard, right?

The number 18 thing is real, but he is a baby and he's light. And he plays light. You know, that's where he's kind of on the opposite end to a Nolan Smith, right? Where it's like, whoa, 235 pounds did that on the edge versus looking at Oja Lari. And it's like, oh, you look like you're less than 250 pounds sometimes. You get moved like a guy that is not finished filling out his frame. But the fact that he is like 21, I think won't be 22 until the league year. Next league year is about to turn over.

I think, basically, you know, after the draft, I think is when his birthday is. You've got a reason to draft that guy in the second round and say, you take whatever time you need, boss. Yep. You're going to sit here behind whoever our starting edge is. we'll get you on the right nutrition plan. You're going to lift weights like hell, you know, throughout OTAs and the whole deal. And we come back to training camp, we'll take stock again on what you might be. He's a playable development guy.

Exactly. That's how I look at him. Like, you can play him. He's not like a lost cause where it's like, wow, this guy, I think he has good awareness. Like when he drops in coverage, he actually, his eyes are okay. But it's just one of those where it's like physically he's not in tool or kind of toolbox. skill wise. Skill wise. Yeah. Skill wise.

He's not all the way there yet, which again, which you're talking about with his age and everything. His brother was the 50th overall pick. Yeah. Is that kind of the range that you would potentially think about him in, Deiote? I would say 50 to 50. If he's there 50 to 55, you feel very good about that.

Oh, very good. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Really anything. What's the second round starts? You'll be start. I was going to say, I think he's in play from 40 on. Really, you can make the argument 35 on.

He probably could be in play. Yeah, I understand why you would maybe take a little bet on him or if you are bullish on what he, because he does have some flashes where you're like, ooh, that's really good. He had a play where he was twisting against Alabama because LSU did a really good job against Bryce Young and kind of baiting him into bailing pockets. And him as a looper, I was like, oh, okay, there it is. Like he kind of got unlocked a little bit, but it's just not always. It's not every third down. It's just flashes that you're betting on. But it's not a total, just straight tools guy, but like a Van Ness is.

Like, you know, it's kind of in between where he has a little. little bit of game to him, a little bit of skill, but it's just not totally refined yet. All right. That's all we got. I was, I was, Deaute's sales pitch on Will Anderson is what I will take away from this show and just how hard I am sold on him now compared to what I was coming into the podcast. Best thing Dei does is he doesn't overthink things. And sometimes you just need him to say it and you go, man, you're a really smart guy. And that I believe exactly what you're saying really, really sells me as well.

It's the beauty of being coach brained, man. you gotta bake some shit down to a sentence or two to make it happen. Occam's Razor, baby. Simple, this is the strangest answer, man. This was incredibly fun. Deiate, very good to have you back in the mix here. Thank you very much for spending the time with us.

I really, really enjoyed it. Man, thank you guys. Thank you. Thanks, Deiote. All right, that is all we have for today. We will be back a little bit later this week. We're actually going to have a little bonus show talking about the Washington football team getting sold,

some huge news from last week that we have not been able to dig into. We're going to talk to Ben Standick about that on tomorrow's show, along with the next iteration of Prospects to Pros, with Dane and Lance and Andy Staples. So please be on the lookout for both of those. Nate and I will also be back on Friday, chat and tight ends. And this year's class, which is, I mean, better than we've seen in a long, long time, right?

So much fun. So we have to dig into that. We also have a couple special guests for that show that I'm really looking forward to. so please be ready for that one coming on Friday. A quick reminder because we're 10 days away. Kansas City in 10 days, the first round of the NFL draft, me, Nate Dane, live from KC on YouTube. We will be going the whole fucking time.

Every single pick from the first round, we will have our reactions. We're going to have some special guests on that show. So please be on the lookout for more details as that gets closer, very, very excited about ramping up our production. I saw Scream 6 recently and they gave the same speech that Ice Cube gives in 22 Jump Street about how in sequels they just up the production value every single time. That's how I feel about round three of our live draft show is the budget is just a little bit bigger.

So we're going to keep cranking up the car chases. That's what we got this year. So more explosions. That's exactly right. A lot more special effects for the 2023 version. So we're pretty pumped about it. For now, that is all we have. Appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.