The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The 2023 Quarterback Draft

Episode Date: May 24, 2023

It's time for one of our favorite episodes of the year...the Quarterback Draft! The question is simple: Which quarterback would you want leading your franchise for the next three years? And yes, his contract matters. Robert Mays, Nate Tice and friend of the show Derrik Klassen are our drafters in this five-round, 15-pick exercise. Let's do this!Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceFollow Derrik on Twitter: @QBKlassSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Before we jump in today, I want to tell you about New York Times Audio, a new iOS app for New York Times, all access, and new subscribers. It's got our show, plus other great podcasts from The Athletic, exclusive shows, narrated articles, and more. New York Times Audio. Download it now at NYTimes.com slash audio app. All right.

Big, big day on the athletic football show. this show for the last two years. We are running it back because it is May. It is essentially Memorial Day weekend. And that's when we do the silly stuff. And this is the pinnacle of the silly stuff. It is QB draft day on the Athletic Football Show, our third annual quarterback draft here to help me draft some quarterbacks today.

Two of my wonderful friends, a great guest. First of all, it's my good friend, Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing very well. This is honestly one of my favorite shows. I feel like I say that about like seven different shows, but truly, this is a really, really fun one. This and the non-QB draft are highlights of the year, which is ironic because it comes in late May or early June, but it's perfect.

Like you said, it's silly season, but not the silly season of the draft, or actually is the silly season of the draft, I guess I could say. Our draft, the draft that matters. Our draft. This is the draft that matters. It's a year-round sport, but super fired up for our third guest here who literally has QB in his Twitter handle, so that works out perfectly. One of my favorite people to talk about quarterbacks with, and that's why I wanted to have him join us today on this show.

It's Derek Klessin. Derek, thank you very much for doing this. I'm thrilled to be back. I mean, like Nate, at least from an outside perspective, this is also one of my favorite shows that you guys do. So very thrilled to be a part of it this time around. Yeah. All righty, let's lay out the ground rules, okay? Pretty simple.

Quarterback, you're taken for the next three years. His contract does matter. That's really it. those are the rules. Here's how we're laying out the draft. We're not doing a snake draft just because it's not as fun to do a snake draft. We're waiting 15 minutes between picks. You know, guys are picking two guys in a row.

It's just not a fun way to do it. So even if it's not fair, quote unquote, if you look at the rosters at the end of it, it's still more about the ranking exercise than it is who has the best roster when we're all set and done. Also, when we did the random order today, I was third. So I felt comfortable saying we're not doing a snake draft because you guys can't accuse me of rigging it anyway. I know, I'm two.

So no matter what happens, snake or otherwise, I knew where I was sitting every round, the same pickish. I guess we're not to snake, so it's not to worry about that. But I think we're all in unison here, just even chat and pre-show, because we haven't tipped off anything. But it's like we're all kind of in the same boat where the upper tier, upper mid-tier, and then after that, I think it's going to be chaotic after that, which I think is going to be very, very fond.

So I don't think the snake track would have mattered for that as we get past the first tier. Probably not. I have the ninth pick anyway. And 9-10 is where I was getting a little bit concerned with the snake draft. And I think we're going to be concerned at 9, 10, 11, no matter what happens. I got Dak and Trevor there last year. So that was a fun little turn right there. Well, this year's Trevor, as we've established, as Kenny Pickett is if you're looking for the second year guy.

So it's a little bit different with the young guys. Derek, this is what, Nate and I were talking about this a little bit earlier today. Whenever we do this exercise, before we dig into. of the actual players, I think it is worth looking at what the list looks like as a whole. And I think one of the reasons we've reached kind of an interesting point here is that the golden age of quarterbacks is now gone. You know, almost every single one of them except for Aaron Rogers is out of here. No Tom Brady, no Drew Breeze anymore, no Phillip Rivers even.

And that's kind of created just a strange landscape at the position because even some of those guys that have crept into their 30s are in an interesting position. either they're at the end of a contract with a certain team. So who knows what they'll cost, where they'll be over the next three years. I think Ryan Tannehill is like that. I think Kirk Cousins is like that. And then you have a guy like Matthew Stafford who was worthy of being in the top 10 of this list last year, probably in the top eight. And now we have no idea what his health is, what his future looks like.

So the pool gets pretty shallow, pretty quick because things are coming from a lot of different directions. I think that's the thing is like that's why this has been so hard to value is because once you get past that top seven or eight of guys who are both young and also very clearly like superstar level talents it's really hard to find where the middle ground for value is because like you said you have a lot of these guys who are like they might be good but their contract situation is weird or they're getting older like you mentioned like tannahill car or you guys or you have guys like you know rogers who has very clearly been elite even if he wasn't last year but it's like how long is this really going to lie like it's very hard to find and then even a lot of the other younger guys

it's hard to really make arguments that, you know, that they're already there. Like if we end up drafting some of these guys, it's probably going to be like I'm making a bet rather than I already feel good about where this guy is at. So like I said, really after about the first half-ish of this exercise, it's very, very feels like pick your poison type of deal. Yeah, I completely agree with that. Even putting my notes down, I feel like I'm in a gambling mood this year. I think that's, that's what it is. It's worth it. It's worth being in a gambling mood this year. It's mystery boxes here, but I think that's where we're at with the NFL.

That's why this is such a cool exercise. Even when we first did it two years ago, it was, you know, Brady and Rogers went fairly early because we're like, oh, well, they're still playing at a high level. Who cares if we only get two years of it, three years of it, yada, yada, yada. But it's funny now, it's like, that's dwindled. So those kind of elite old guys, just like you guys were saying, they're gone. And so it's that is kind of a transition, it feels like in the NFL, which of course, we're seeing in the AFC with all these quarterbacks, but also just the middle ground,

like you guys are saying. but it's fascinating. This year was, I feel the most adventurous this year. And I think that's why it's going to be fun to hear the arguments for whatever we got, whatever we pick. And that's why I say again, that the snake draft probably doesn't matter as much as maybe it did in the past. The last few drafts,

I also think are informing this a little bit. You know, the 2019 draft with Kyler at the top, like Kyler is such a wild card in this exercise now. Daniel Jones is a first round pick. Dwayne Haskins. You go to the 2020 draft that's a little bit more solidified with Burrow and Herbert. But think about how the 21 draft is played out, where Zach Wilson is now completely off the board.

here. Justin Fields is kind of a Roershack test depending on how you want to look at a Mac Jones is second year after Mac Jones his first year. And I also think that the shallow pool is where we're really feeling that kind of lost generation that happened between like 2013 and 2016. You know,

those guys who are, you know, 28, 29 years old, those drafts just didn't produce anyone. James Winston, Marcus Mariotta, you know, Jared Gough is fine but I don't think he's probably going to be in the top 15 of this list. Carson Wence, and you go back even further, those 2013, 2014 drafts.

There just weren't a lot of those guys. And I think we're starting to feel that. And again, that's why the pool feels a little bit shower that it might have felt in years past. All right. Derek, you are a guest here. I'm not giving you the number one pick because of that. I actually did like a random number generator. But you have the number one pick.

I can't imagine where you're going to go with this. Yeah, I would love to start off with some sort of interesting pick, but I don't really think there's one to be made. It's obviously Patrick Mahomes. he's, if he took up half of my team's cap, I would still want Patrick Mahomes because he is just that kind of different. He's, I don't want to get into the whole who's better between him and Brady or whatever, but in terms of just watching him play football, he's the best that I've ever seen throw a football in and out of the pocket. And I think that's actually what has most fascinated me about Mahomes is obviously he came into the league as Houdini playing quarterback. But now

he's a very mature, like if you just took guys who played from the pocket, he's still like top three, if not still the best, purely from what he does in the pocket. And then you add on top that he does stuff outside of the pocket that nobody else can even imagine. So he's just very clearly the guy. Yeah, that that's what I've tried to emphasize too is that like it's all the in-between stuff. It's not just the in a baseball equivalent. It's not just like the 45 home runs and he strikes out a whole bunch. It's like, no, he's getting on base two. It's like Barry Bond's shit. It's like he is just on his, it's in his own tier, not to say that these other guys that we're going to mention aren't extremely good and can still ascend.

It's just that what he's doing is truly special, truly, not even just generational, truly historical, efficiency, explosive plays, creation plays. How efficient he is as a scrambler now. I love what he's done the last couple of years. Like he's kind of toned it down, but become more efficient at it. It's just pick your poison. We already used that term earlier about a different thing. But I would say with my homes, it's just like he's going to punish you in every way.

He's going to layer balls at all three levels. not enough we can say. And I've been lucky enough to watch a lot of amazing quarterbacks in person even. And seeing Mahomes live now twice, it's like there's, it's just something different with him. He is truly just a special, special player, a special, special, athlete that I'm, I'm glad that we get to watch him. And I'm glad we get to watch him in the near future and hopefully for another decade because he's so much fun to watch. It's so obvious how much he's just in his own class at this point. And I think last year was just such a definitive statement on that.

He really hammered at home. And I'm guilty of getting upset this many, many times. I'm not admitting anything I've never admitted to before. Just getting bored where it's like, I just want somebody else to kind of, you know, fight for that top spot or kind of challenge him for the belt. I mean, just because it's fun. It's fun to kind of see guys rise and fall and he's just nowhere near falling. I mean, he's, he makes the most spectacular plays of any quarterback in the league pretty

often. And he makes the least amount of negative plays of any quarterback in the league. His pressure to sack percentage last year was 9.8. He was the only player in the NFL that was less than 10, okay? The only guy in the NFL that was less than 10. Half of the guys in the NFL, breath a third of that. Not half. Half of the quarterbacks got at least 20% of their team snaps were at 20%.

So he got sacked on half the amount of his pressures as half the other quarterbacks in the league, which is absolutely ridiculous. He was also dead last in the NFL and tournament where they played percentage last year. So he doesn't turn the ball over. He doesn't get sacked. and he's the most spectacular, exciting player in the league. Yep. And he, he shretts blets is, like, everything he does.

Mentally. The scrambling point is a very good one. Scambling. Just just breaking, like, just destroying your will to live on third and seven when he does that little waddle that gains eight yards and he ducks out of bounds. Everything. Just everything about it. One yard past the line.

And sorry, I'll let you go, Derek, but just the one thing I want to say is that, and this is what's happening, I've noticed. And you see a guy like a Caleb will. Caleb Williams coming into draft next year is that, everyone is great into the flash of those creation plays and going, oh, it's the next Mahomes. Just have to emphasize it's all the other stuff.

It's what makes Mahomes. And I cannot say that enough. It's like, yes, you want those flash plays, but it's all the boring singles and doubles that he does. That's what makes him Mahomes. And like he just doesn't have,

it's not even just that he doesn't have bad play. It's that he never has a bad game, really. Like, that's why the two years ago against the Bengals, like that second half where he, kind of blew up. That's why it was such like a moment because that was really, it felt like the one time in his entire career where it felt like he actually collapsed. Almost every other

point, even if he has like a bad game for him, it's still like an average to above average game for any other quarterback. He's just on such a different standard than everybody else. I mean, even that like three-pick game he threw against Denver this year, he was still like 90% incredible in that game. Like it's just, he's playing on a different level than everybody else. Yeah. No, it's, God, it wasn't just that game, but it was, oh, the Bengals regular season game this year. And after, you know, the Bengals won and they did a great job on both sides of all, people were like, man, Leander, they, the Bengals defense has figured out a way to solve Mahomes. And then you look at all the underlying metrics. And he's like, his EPA per dropback was still excellent. Like he had like, like, I started that game.

He was amazing. Absurd absurd success rate. I'm looking it up right now. Like, yeah, his success rate was like better than most people having a like, like, like, good player. is having a season, and that was his bad game. It's just, I know, we can't, we can't say enough. Like, even just like first downs per attempt, like, just everything. It's just, he doesn't have those dips in games where it's like, wow, let's see if he can come back from it. There's other quarterbacks we'll talk about where they have those games where it's like,

who, that was bad. Let's see how they rally back. His bad is still above average, which is just crazy. Yeah, it's remarkable. I mean, the consistency, the highs, the lows. I mean, every single bit of it contributes to that. All right. All right.

Now we really start. Nate, you have the number two pick. What do you got for me? to me this almost came down to a two-horse race but really this guy who is still figuring out how to play quarterback is such a force of nature that I just can't go with anybody else and that's Josh Allen of the bills even just a work in progress as a processor in that like the playoff game against the dolphins and the Bengals reminded me of that he's still not all the way there still a work in progress so I want to like put a pin in that second in EPA per drop back second in success rate he's the best non-mohomohom's quarterback quarterback basically. Finished second in success rate, by the way, in EPA for dropback, while also finishing 22nd in how many yards were created from yak from his receivers and past catchers. Second in QBR.

But the most absurd stat, I've tweeted this, and I've mentioned it before, but most absurd stat about Josh Allen is he had 57 scrambles last year, and he was successful on 84% of those. That means 48 of his 57 scrambles were an efficient play. It's absurd. That is the highest rate since 2018. That's as far as true media goes. of any quarterback with 30 or more scrambles.

And only if you go 20 or more, it's just one Tanna Hill year is better. Fourth most design runs last year, while successful in over half the number of them, which is the lowest mark of his career, actually, but he had 26 rushes or 10 or more yards. He's the whole offense. I mean, he just is.

He was that whole Bill's offense, and it's remarkable what he does as a runner, a thrower. Every throw is available for him. His accuracy has improved. He can throw the ball a mile, but also checks it down. Sometimes he gets away from himself mentally where it's like he's trying to do a little too much. But it's he like I say again, he's he's professor chaos.

He's he runs like an ostrich. Like he's the best player on the field. You feel that way. And he's 27 years old and just hitting his prime. And it's just yeah, by all accounts, the offensive line was mid last year. But no QB had a higher percentage of drops in the NFL last year, 34 drops. And he finished 11th in what I call true dropback percentage, which is non-screens, play actions. You'll hear me bring that up a couple times.

And the bill's offense was fantastic. It was excellent. It's just he's a force of nature. That's the term I'm going to keep using about him. I think he is just going to keep ascending as the game slows down for him mentally, even more than it has already, which has been a tremendous, which we've seen as a rookie and when he was coming out Wyoming. But I think of Josh Allen, I'm putting to him,

I feel even better about him than maybe I was last year when I thought, you know, others might take the throne at the number two spot. Derek, if you had the number two pick, would you have gone with Josh Allen? 100%. And for a lot of the reasons that Nate laid out, And like what's so incredible about like he still has room to grow as a processor is he very clearly already has. Yeah. Over the past, even like the past two years, like even from when he started to be good in 2019 or whatever that was to now, he's very clearly gotten a lot better.

Like he's much more willing to check stuff down. And I think I was watching him about a week ago because I'm going to be trotting a bunch of NFL quarterbacks and I already got to him. What I really started to appreciate about Josh Allen is he plays with a degree of like confidence and snappiness in everything he does. that really everyone outside of Mahomes just doesn't quite have. It's like, he does have those lapses where, like, he might do something weird and might be like very Superman, like try to, you know,

conquer the world, all that stuff on one play. But he's so quick to like, if he gets pressure, he knows immediately to check it down. If he, like, if there's an opening in the pocket,

he immediately knows to just break and go. Like, if he starts scrambling and sees a guy open, he immediately is going to throw it. Like, it's just everything he does has this full confidence. I am the best in the world at what I do. I'm going to make it happen.

And I think when you combine that with a guy who can probably throw through a brick wall if he wanted to and also runs like a four or five or whatever at, you know, 240 pounds, it's just, it's really, really hard to stop a guy who is built like that and can play like that. And very clearly continues to get better and smarter each year. The idea that he had a hurt elbow for a good chunk of last season and that there were some inconsistent moments from the bill's offense. And he's still second in every single metric that you want to look at is insane. Also, the word that I would use is outside of Mahomes, he's the most devastating. Like, he has those flashes of the same kind of idea where, again, it's third and seven, and he's just creating first downs in more ways than anyone else that's not named Patrick Mahomes. The idea of playing against him and just how deflating it can be, he's the only one,

in my opinion, that ever gets into Mahomes' territory because of all of those different ways, when it's third and seven, that he can just make your heart drop out of your chest. Yeah. And that's what you can't teach it. It's just you really can't. And that's why I get great into the flash and stuff. And the fact that he's still figuring out all the other stuff and still this devastating is just tremendous. Like when they get into empty, the bills getting to empty, I would be terrified if I were a defensive coordinator because that's where Josh Allen just devastates you.

It's no, no one generate more EPA out of empty plays than him. And it's not even close. And empty we usually think of for me anyways. It's, oh, it's a quarterback getting rid of the ball. It's a quick processor. and they can read the field. He's doing that a little bit, but then it's also,

hey, let just create all this space for let him just get into creation mode and run around and do all the stuff that he does. He's fantastic. He's a guy that it can be frustrating sometimes how he reads stuff,

but then he'll have string together four or five plays that no one else can do. The halftime, Derek, we were talking about this couple weeks ago, I think when you were charting him, going into the half against the Vikings

in the first half. It's like a five-play sequence where it's like, flame throw after flamethr. Yeah. It's unbelievable. If one guy who did that, if any other quarterback, I mean, I'd say the elite guys, if the mid-tier quarterbacks did one of those plays, we'd be freaking out. And he just puts five together on one drive.

It's just stuff like that. So it's, and like I said, again, he's 27 years old. His cap hits fair this year. It's 12th highest in the NFL. He's under team control. I mean, it's fantastic. It's long enough where they have a flexicode. They can do whatever they want.

And I said this last year, and I can't remember which game it was, but it was early in the year when I thought that his decision-making and just his pulse, his handle on the pulse of the game, and just like, all right, I know when to check it down. I'm just more in control than I've been in years past. There were moments last year, I was like, at his best, he's as scary as Mahomes is. The problem is that the consistency is not there. It's not where Mahomes doesn't have bad games, Mahomes doesn't really have bad stretches. Those do exist with Josh Allen. But when he's at the top of his game, he's as scary as Patrick Mahomes is at his best. Like that force of nature element is there. And I think that's very real.

And I think that's why they kind of belong in their own tier together when we're talking about that kind of stuff. All right. I think those are the obvious first two choices. That's what I would have done if I had one and two. This becomes a little bit more of a conversation. If you had asked me this question heading into last year, I would have picked a different person than I'm picking now.

I'm picking Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is my third quarterback. Okay. I think that what he has done, done over the last couple years. You know, if you look at a lot of the underlying numbers, just like the EPA for dropback numbers and everything else, he's, you know, right up there at the top of the league.

And the, my, the biggest thing about Burrow that I feel so good about is kind of the mini evolution that he is undergone over the last year or so. And teams kind of daring them to play a certain way with all the two high looks that they were getting early last season and his kind of conscious decision to say, okay, if you, if you want to do this, I'm willing to. to do this because that was my biggest issue with him was the amount of sacks that he was taking, the holding out to the ball, and just that aggressiveness and that mindset kind of getting him into trouble. And I think that his ability to kind of just take what is there, how quickly he's getting

rid of the ball now, all of those different aspects and just the processing and decision-making that you see from him consistently. I know that the players he's throwing to are really, really good, but I think the way he is playing the position right now is right up there with anybody. He doesn't have that force of nature level that some of these other guys do. But I think that the way he's playing quarterback at this stage, even three years in his career, is as advanced and as refined as pretty much anybody in the league now that some of those older guys have aged out. So I just, he's getting better. He's consistently getting better.

And I just feel like, again, he's playing at such a high level that I'm going with him or some of the other guys that I might have put above him last year. I mean, I get it. He's actually the guy I'm targeting right now. And like the refinement, you see it in every single area. It's not like one or two things where like, oh, this guy kind of has it and you hope he develops in other areas. Burrow has it really everywhere. Like you watch some of his footwork. Like, DAC is probably the other guy that I would think of in terms of like how he takes shortcuts with his footwork to like be more efficient in the quick game.

Obviously, Brady was great at this. Burrow was doing that stuff year one as like as a rookie. And he's obviously even getting better at that stuff. So like he makes himself so efficient in that way. His pocket movement is insane. Obviously, he took a lot of sacks earlier in his career, but that wasn't because he was bad at managing the pocket. He just wanted to do it for too long,

and he was so sure that he could fix the play no matter what. And like you alluded to, he's gotten a lot better about being like, you know what, I'm going to check down, take the four yards, and we're going to move on to the next play. And then he'll make a play on the next play on the next play. Just how quickly he's getting rid of the ball. I mean the second quickest time to throw in the league last year after Tom Brady. And you combine that with the aggressiveness that he still has.

And I think that combination is really, really good. All the, what you guys are weighing out, You can see it just even the stats, you know, the sack percentage dropped by 2%, which is remarkable. He went from 29th and sack percentage in 2021 to 16th, which is more than fair. Like, you know, that's fine. And drop, and like you just mentioned, Robert, you said he had second fastest time to throw. He dropped that by almost 0.2 seconds, which I know people are like, oh, it's only 0.2 seconds. In football terms, that is, that's a long time.

And even just other stuff that they did, the whole, we've talked about a bunch, the Bengals offense, evolution last year was because of Burrow being like he came into the league that you're like oh this is an efficient quarterback that knows how to play quarterback he's like he like learned even more to be a more quarterback yeah he became even more quarterback e um and i love it they had the kind of cheat code of the go balls and everything and teams are like we're taking that away and to see his metamorphosis during an NFL season before they hit a buy week is remarkable yeah it speaks to his self-awareness um the mental side he's tough as all get and all that but just understanding okay, I'm just going to nickel and dime you.

Awesome. I'm all for that. He was sixth in success rate for quarterbacks with 300 more attempts. That his success rate went up 2% from the year before. The year that everyone was like, that's his breakout year. Success rate going up 2% is remarkable. That's a big chunk, 48.5%. So while the explosive play metrics and the EPA took a dip, it's the other stuff like you guys

were mentioning. And then also another thing was they used his legs more last year. Yeah. He has a pretty good athlete. He's big and can move. Like you guys pocket movement, but he's like, good athlete. He rushed for 13 more first downs than the year before. He had one rush of 10 or more years in 2021. He had nine last year. He more than doubled. They more than doubled how many

design runs that they had. And he almost doubled his success rate. So it's just he learned to those easy buttons aren't always going to be there. So let's play quarterback. And what's, yeah, that's really, really tough to stop when a quarterback can do that. Boom, boom, boom, and less than two and a half seconds over and over and over again. That's exhausting to defend. He has just enough of that playmaking gene. I mean, it's one of the things he does best is navigating that pocket. But the fact that the processing is as high as it is, but he can still make something happen when things break down, that to me is the combination that's necessary. And I just think the more you watch guys and the more that I think about the position, this will come up a couple different times in this conversation.

That just feel for control. I don't know. Just that, yes, it's just a feel. Just like a feel for the position and a feel for that space and how it works. along with identifying what teams are doing to you. I'm putting more of a premium on that. He's just not the type of guy I would gravitated towards four or five years ago when I was thinking about the position.

But I think that you just see how important that ends up being. And it's elevated in my mind, like the prominence of those traits compared to physical stuff that we can see, big arm, all of that, all that. And I just, that's why I think that he's taking a small jump from me and just hierarchy at the position over the last year or two. And that's why I'm putting them here. So that's my third pick. I,

real quick, I, I have a thread going of quarterbacks throwing field out routes on Twitter. It's really fun when you see all the top guys doing it. Mahomes is like perfect. Alan's throwing it late and it's still firing it out there. So it doesn't matter. Watching Burrow, because again,

he has average arm strength. I'll be honest. Then watching Burrow throw it because he throws it so early. It's out. Yeah. And it's out. Foot hits the back of his drop and that ball's out. And I've talked about how I would use DAC as teaching tape.

I would use Burrow too. Like it's just because he maximizes what he's got. And that you, we mentioned it one time. He has some similarities to Philip Rivers. He's going to, the ball's going to go to the right spot. He's going to nickel and dime you.

But then he'll rip your heart out when he has the chance to do that. So that's kind of the next, he's the zoomer rivers. And I think that's why you like him. That's probably why I like him. I, that also, I mean, this is stuff that's, it's impossible to quantify and I don't want to get too far down this road.

that like kind of fuck you edge that he has, I think it matters. Like I think it absolutely matters. If you're, if this guy is the guy that is on every single bit of promotional material that you have, he's the face of your franchise, he is the guy that makes people feel a lot better about coming into work every single day because you know we have this guy, we have a chance every single time. That shit really does matter, in my opinion, at this position.

And he has that in droves. So I, again, it's a small thing, but I do think that it would, kicks him up there. Also, he's got one more cheap year left on his deal. It's big of $11.5 million against the cap this year. And it's $29.5 million next year. So that's just one more slight thing. But even if he was already on that extension, I would still probably have him in this spot. All right. Round two. Derek, who you got? Who is the fourth overall selection? So I think this very clearly comes down to two quarterbacks, at least for me. And having just watched both of them over the past week or so, I think I've actually shifted my mind on where I would go.

Interesting. Okay. So I'm actually going to go with Lamar Jackson, even though he just got paid. Wow. Wow. Yeah, I just, he to me, I know the last. This is a bummer because I was hoping Lamar might be there at six. Oh, no.

This is, this is devastating because now I have to pick. Exactly. Jackson to me is just, I know the last year and a half kind of has been weird just with, you know, Greg Roman kind of not being as good at his job, the offensive line falling apart at certain spots, having basically nobody who can catch a football outside of Mark Andrews and like four games of Rashad Bateman or whatever. When you watch Lamar individually, I think when we talk about these other guys who are elite, like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar is to me the only guy really left who we've seen individually play at that level where it feels like he is

unstoppable. And that was a few years ago now, but he was doing it with Willie Sneed. Like we don't need him to have what the Bengals have on offense for him to do this or like what other elite teams have. Like he can do this with you just need to get to competent. And I think what they've done around in this offseason has gotten closer to that. But what I also really started to appreciate about Lamar, especially compared to some of the other quarterbacks I've already gotten to rewatch is like Lamar just has this attitude about the way that he plays that is very much he is trying to win the game on every single play. And obviously it's been impossible to do that with the talent that he's playing with.

But he gives them such an incredible chance, whether that's, you know, what he does in the quick game, what he's able to do down the field. He's gotten better, you know, throwing outside the numbers, which I think has also been a really interesting development with him. Some of his downfield throwing has been incredible, even if that's been spotty at times. And just the way he manages the pocket, like he doesn't really make that many mistakes. And then everything he does on the ground, like, he is the offense's easy button. We talk about all these other offenses having, like, a Jamar Chase or a Justin Jefferson, who it's like, just throw him the ball. he'll get you something. And AJ Brown, it's like just throwing the ball and he'll get you something. The easy button for Baltimore is Lamar Jackson do something or Lamar Jackson, zone read, you know,

do something out of pistol. And so that to me is just, when I think about this tier of players, I want the guy who can do the most things for my offense and also has the attitude of I'm going to go out and win the game every play. To me, that was Lamar Jackson. All right. Here's my question for you. I think this is the central question about Lamar and about how the Ravens franchise will go over the next few years. Do you think that that I am unstoppable level that we saw Lamar Jackson reach a couple years ago? Do you think that is partially possible because of the type of offense that he was placed in? And when we see him in whatever this new version of it looks like, is there a different sort of level to what he could be as a passer? Or is he partially a product of what they did with him in the past? I think that's the central question, right?

About what Lamar and what the Ravens look like over the next few years. When you drop him into Todd Monkin's offense, do we see a, player who's on the same level as the guy we saw that when he was the MVP a few years ago. I think my answer is actually both in the sense of at the time, it was such a unique offense in the NFL and such a unique use of his skill set that I think it did kind of unlock something that the rest of the league just wasn't quite ready for. And I do think he was a good pastor at the time. He's gotten a lot better now. But like it was very clearly, they were doing some stuff that I think the rest of the league just wasn't ready for and hadn't caught up for yet. and their personnel was just frankly better for doing what they were trying to do at the time.

It hasn't been that good the past couple of years, so it's been harder for them to replicate that. On the other hand, I think Lamar has improved a lot as a passer in a lot of ways. I think what he does in the quick game is actually phenomenal. He's, to me, actually one of the most creative passers in the league in terms of how he uses his eyes to move defenders, like some of the arm slots that he'll use, like some of the quick movements he'll make in the pocket to make sure he has a throwing lane. he does a lot of stuff that makes the offense probably more efficient than I think that it should be. And then the other thing is- Stylistically, the guy who reminds me of him as a pastor more than anyone else is Matthew Stafford. Yes.

Like Lamar and Matthew Stafford stylistically have a lot of similarities to the way that they play the position. And I don't think a lot of people would make that comparison. But they've always reminded me of one another. They're both like these creative boxer-type dudes in the pocket who just do weird stuff that it's like, and like Aaron Rogers obviously had some of this when he's playing at his best. is just they have this unique way to get the ball to their receivers. And I think that that's really important for me. And I think that's part of why he's been so successful.

And then the other thing is when Lamar was coming out of college, that was a very, very pro-style passing offense that they were running. And he did an unbelievable job at running all of those concepts, whether it was from the gun, under center, all that stuff. And I think Baltimore just didn't feel the need to do that with him initially because they thought he had such a unique skill set as a runner. so they adapted to that, and I think it obviously worked out. I also think that there's, we see this all the time where you have a specific way of running your

offense early on with these guys who can run that lifts the floor, but then you take it to a different level to raise the ceiling. But oftentimes, in the best case scenario, the same play caller can do that. Shane Stuyken can do both of those things. With the Ravens, they couldn't do it with the same guy. There wasn't a way to make that transition. So they played out the string or longer than they should have because they had so much success under the first guy. So it's, it can't just happen as quickly or as swiftly as it has in some of

these other situations that we've seen over the last couple years. Right. Because like Brian Dable did it kind of with John Allen. It like very clearly, that was something they did. Greg Roman just, that's not really what he does, man. When you, when you hire Greg Roman, you know what you're getting. And it's going to work for a few years until the wheels kind of fall off and it's hard to keep the personnel because it's a very unique style of personnel. Eventually it falls apart. And that's obviously what happened to Baltimore. But I think now moving to more of a pro style. like we're going to really throw the ball around the yard type of deal with some of the receivers that they got. And obviously Todd Monkin, who really actually has like multiple offensive identities, which I think is actually really good for Jackson.

It's what I was just saying. Like he has that level where I can do a couple different things based on how I need to solve problems and what's being presented to me in a way that they couldn't over the last couple of years. I ask you that question because I think other people have presented that as a potential issue. Like when you kind of let the guardrails off of him, is it going to look as good? Because other quarterbacks, Russell Wilson is the best example of this, where it's like, there are a lot of people arguing that if you kind of let him go a little bit, can he be better? And in reality, it was the opposite. I am very, very excited about what Lamar Jackson is going to look like in Baltimore.

So that is not a concern of mine, but more of a stand-in question from people who might be a little bit more pessimistic and curious why you would put him this high on a list like this. I had him sixth. Greg Roman when he was with the 49ers, even then people were saying, well, man, that's a basic passing game. That was a decade ago. Yeah. So how much the evolution of the passing game and mixing of types of passes, RPO's and everything, even just expanding hot throws outside of throwing hitches, which hasn't been done since NOM. It's just that, you know, that's already an upgrade. I think, I think Munkin, too, Todd Munkin, especially what he did with Stetson Bennett.

at Georgia, Bennett was such a good athlete. The design runs were fantastic, and they translate because they're out of pro pro formations. Like, all of the stuff they did is going to translate easily, or he did is going to translate easily to the pro level because he's done it. And he's added some of the college element to it. Or so now he's never had a quarterback like this. So I think the transition is going to be great.

I also think Lamar, too, is that he was, he's always trying to get better throwing from the pocket. But this year, he had 16% of his plays came from. outside of the past attempts came from outside the pocket. His MVP year is 21%. So it's dropping, dropping, dropping. 32% of the passes took three more seconds his MVP year. Now it's 30%.

So it's dropping, dropping. That's, you know, run around kind of place. Lowest scramble rate of his entire career. So it's not his legs are gone because the design rush rate is exactly what it's been, career, career levels. He's been more affected than ever. His success rate on design runs went up. It's higher than it was his MVP.

Yeah. So the legs aren't gone. It's just that he's trying to be a quarterback thrown from the pocket and he can do it. I'm glad Derek praised him like that because there's times where Lamar's footwork is funky on dropbacks. He takes too many steps. He's taking like a nine step drop instead of seven. The ball comes out on time. So who cares?

So even though it doesn't look aesthetically what you would teach, it still works. So I think he gets dinged unfairly for that. So I'm excited to see this here. Item six, but I love this from Derek. I think there are people who would balk at this. I feel like this a year. from now could look pretty prescient for a lot of the things that right of the reasons we're talking about. And again, you get back to that kind of force of nature element to his game, how many of those

guys truly have it, how many players in the league truly have it? He does. We've seen him be that player before. And I understand wanting to take a swing at this spot when you consider some of the guys that are left. We've named four guys and he's the second one that has, he's only the second one that has an MVP. Yeah. So put that in perspective. And he's just same about age, same age as those guys. All right. Now I'm fascinated who you're going to pick. Well, this, sucks because I thought Herbert would be gone. And I literally, I have so many notes in my dock right now. I have none for Herbert because I thought he'd be gone. And guess what? I probably shouldn't pick him. I'm not. I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence. I'm going with Trevor Lawrence right

here. It's a win-win. I was hoping I'd get Trevor on the turn by at this pick anyways. I have, I'm going to be honest. I have Trevor fourth on my list, uh, even the head of Burrow. I love Burrow. I'm not saying he's not like that level. I just really, really, really like Trevor. And boy, it's sure nice to be right. So he's last year, Trevor was six knee paper dropbacks. So we're just looking at some of the metrics. That's higher than Burrow, higher than G.

And he's higher than D. He's a machine, just processing, timing, moving in the pocket, accuracy. He, Derek, I think, was this your phrase? He's the prince who was promised. Like that is Trevor Lawrence. He was the prince who was promised. That is him. And he's a good athlete.

He only chooses a scramble kind of when he needs to. But like as far as design runs, you can run the zone read stuff. He called his own number against the Titans where he went rogue. And he scores. And he's out racing guy and stiff arming a guy. He had 27 rushing first downs. And he doesn't run a ton of QB sneaks to kind of juice those numbers up. He's, you know, he's skinny.

So I get why they don't want to do that. He had nearly the same amount of scrambles last year as Lamar, 24 to 26. They had the same exact success rate and the same exact EPA. it's pretty damn good. Fourth and sack rate, which is the one thing what made me optimistic. And I think others, Derek, year, too, was his rookie year, what was his sack rate numbers despite playing behind in a terrible

offensive system with not a great offensive line. Yep, guess what? It's sticky. Now he's fourth. Second highest rate of drops last year. So even with all this investment in pass catchers, you know, it's still not the greatest group. So I can't wait the magic that he's going to have with Calvin Ridley this year.

I think it's going to be really, really fun to watch those too. And, you know, he's young. He's got three more cost-controlled years. Yeah, I think Trevor, with the contract, with what he is and how he's going to keep ascending, I'm a huge fan of him overall, so I'm really glad I get him here. And I think he's just going to keep ascending and be an elite type of guy very soon. 10 million this year, 11.7 million next year, probably 30 million or so on the fifth year option the year after that.

Those are your next three years. And EPA per dropback can be a problematic stat for this reason. It is a symbol of the health of your passing game. So Jimmy Garoppolo ranks in the top five and he paper drop back over the last three years. I think that you have to take a critical eye to numbers like that and say, okay, what role does the quarterback have in the success of the passing game if that number is a reflection of the passing game overall? And I think that Trevor has played in an offense where it's well designed. It was very well designed this year, but he doesn't have great talent around him. His big time throw percentage is still top five in the NFL.

He doesn't get sacked. He gets rid of the ball extremely fast. So if you look at like the two, three layers a little bit deeper than simply that number, it becomes even more impressive, not less impressive. And that's why I think it's very easy to be bullish on him. I had him fifth. So I would have taken him after the guy I'm about to take. So I completely understand why you would.

The coolest thing to me about Trevor two last year is I had a feeling he was going to be better, but I think the way in which he got better was really cool because he came out in week two against the Colts, who Gus Bradley defense, they kind of do what they do. But it was really cool to see him very systematically pick that defense apart. He went like 25 of 30. Everything was on time. Everything was right where it needed to be. He should have been 26 to 30 with another touchdown, but Jamal Agnew had dropped like a deep over that should have been a touchdown that he threw beautifully.

Like it was a perfect like quarterback knows where to go with the ball every play. he feels mature type of game. And then you fast forward a little bit to the Baltimore game. And it was, oh, he has the I can win a game in the fourth quarter type of trait. And then you fast forward a little bit again to the Chargers playoff game. And it's, oh, he can dig himself out of a hole in the biggest moment type of trait. So to me, it just felt like he had all of these not like stat sheet developments, but like character developments as like just maturing into the league maturing as a player that was like, oh. this guy is very clearly someone who is going to be around for a long, long time at a very,

very high level. It's so important for your quarterback to be a multiplier. And it is so obvious already how much better he makes the players in the support system around him. And I just think that's such a huge thing to take into account with him. I don't even think there's any more ambiguity about it. And he just finished his second season. Yeah.

It's, it's, I think what Derek said, too, is that I was high on him going into last year. I just didn't think he would, in his old last year, year was like, okay, you put together two good weeks and I'm on this podcast getting all giddy. And then it'd be kind of an iffy week or kind of a week where the stats aren't there. His rookie year even, it would be you come away going like, man, he did some good stuff. And you look at his box scores and it's like 120 yards. And you're like, man, that's the most exciting 120 yards I've ever seen in my entire life. But now it's there is, now there's more kind of tangible results that's nice to kind of point at.

And what Derek's saying, those kind of checkpoints of like him becoming a dude is really cool to see unfold in one season. Sometimes you have to wait a year and, oh, okay, there's still questions on this. I think it's so awesome because like if they lost that game to the Chargers, how many questions were there? Well, now they have to win a game and oh, my God, there's still, wait, there are three picks in the first half and all that. But maximizing everybody around them, everybody, not just offensive line, not just

pass catchers, both and understanding whatever is called. I think that's what's so cool with him is you can run anything and he's going to run it perfectly. And his eyes are amazing always. he's looking off guys. It's just, it's the whole package. It's everything I like. I'm excited that you guys like him too, obviously,

but I'm giddy to watch him this year because I think he's going to get even a little more help with his past catchers. Offensive line will still see, but I think he'll still mitigate some of those issues. And that's why it's going to be fun. Again, it goes back to feel. You could see it that rookie year where he just has a feel for how to navigate the pocket, how to negotiate that space.

My biggest concern with him, you and you and I've talked about this. We talk about Lamar Jackson, how creative of a thrower he is. That was my biggest. hang up about Trevor is how creative and loose he could be as a player because at times he felt to me a little bit robotic where it's just like if he's going to be in this box where is the ceiling really and I think you really saw that down the back half of last season where there were

games stretches flashes where the concern about that with me started to melt away a little bit I forget who I was talking to but I was talking kind of about that thing with Trevor and someone said it was like at a certain point last year he remembered oh I'm Trevor Lawrence Whereas, like, you didn't see that his rookie year. And it was like, last year he remembered, oh, shit, I'm the best player in the draft. I'm the best quarterback prospect in a decade. Like, I'm going to go play like it. I'm going to act like it.

Just let the tension out of your shoulders a little bit, okay? Just take a deep breath and relax a little bit. What's funny is he did this in college in a way. It was, I think, going into his sophomore year. Yeah, his sophomore year, there was so much hype like two years advance of like, oh, he's going to be the number one pick, blah, blah, blah. And for the first, like, three or four games, it was like, man, what is wrong with you?

Like he's just forcing weird passes. He looked uncomfortable. And he even said as much as a certain point. He was like, I just felt the pressure that everyone had put on me. And then at a certain point, I just remembered, I'm good and I'm going to go play like I'm good. And then he did. And I think he kind of had to go through that in the NFL.

And I'm very glad we're on the other side of that with him because he is just an unbelievable joy to watch. People can now appreciate him as opposed to going like, oh, Zach Wilson's doing this. It's like, no, just appreciate what the hell this guy's doing because it's so good. The last thing I'll talk about is because I checked on this throughout the year, and I've had a Twitter thread on it, was pro football reference has kind of advanced passing where you can look at everyone's stats and see where it is compared to the league average that season. So it's great to look at ERIS. And that's how you can compare what Dan Marino was doing with what Payne Manning was doing, yada, yada, based on how much teams were throwing the ball, which also makes Dan Marino looking like a totally different light even more than like his simple counting stats because it's absurd compared to the rest of the league. But Lawrence's numbers were better than Andrew Luck in his second season. Like if you just look comparable to those eras, like better than Matt Ryan during his second season.

Like he was he was already doing it. And it's just glad sometimes yes, a quote unquote normalish fan will just have to see those results to prove it. So I'm glad now it's like I don't have to bring up the underlying metrics. People just go, oh, you want a playoff game. And it's like, oh, now he's good. And it's like, that's fine. I'm glad because now I don't have to argue it as much because he is very, very fucking. good.

All right. I understand how there could be an argument for Jalen Hertz here based on the season that he had last year and based on his trajectory as a player. I'm still picking Justin Herbert with the six pick here. I don't. Justin Herbert played two of his three NFL seasons with an offensive coordinator that I think the entire football watching community knew was in over his head in that spot. 66% of Justin Herbert's time

and the NFL has come with that. Here's the ranking in EPA per dropback since 2020. Patrick Mahomes is number one. Josh Allen's number two. Aaron Rogers, who's won two MVP awards is number three. Jimmy Garapolo, we've already discussed,

is number four. Dak Prescott is five. I think we'll get to Dak here in a minute. We'll get there soon. Justin Herbert is sixth. And he has played two of his three NFL seasons with a guy who just got fired. So if again, that number is a product,

of the health of the passing game. How healthy was the Chargers offense over the last couple years? This year, they literally weren't healthy. His receivers weren't healthy. His rookie year, the offensive line was an absolute disaster. So really the only year where things have been going really well on humming was 2021 when he looked like the next great quarterback in the NFL. And now you have Callen Moore getting there.

Hopefully the receivers will be a little bit healthier. And I just, I'm betting on the guy. He's extremely young. He had one of the best first three years. stretches in the history of the league at the position. Again, the mistakes just aren't really there. He takes fewer sacks than pretty much adding quarterback in the NFL, more in the back half of last season. But I still think that there are so few low points and those high highs are still there. And then again, if you just look at the aggregate production and stats and everything else,

he is that guy to me. So I'm still going with Justin Herbert just because I think if you drop Justin Herbert out to the Eagles, he would look pretty damn good. And his situation has not really been that over the last couple years of the Chargers. Yeah, I had the chance to take him and I didn't, but I want to be very clear. I still think Justin Herbert is awesome. Because like when you talk about, I think especially when you talk about these guys who are in this elite tier, you want them to make those 0.1 percent of throws. And I think outside of Mahomes and Allen, Herbert is the next guy you put into that.

Like maybe Burrell has a little bit more like the down-to-down accuracy or whatever. Yeah, Burroughs is different. It's kind of a different animal. Comparing those like F you throws from Herbert and Justin Herbert. It's a different thing. They look so different, but the results are very similar in the end. It's actually really funny. A Randy Johnson strikeout compared to a Greg Maddox shot.

That is exactly right. I appreciate that, but it's like, can't everyone do that? But it's like, no, that's how good he is because he can get away with that. It's a great comparison. It's a great comparison. I totally agree with that. So, yeah, I'm going with Justin Herbert. All right. Well, real quick, I do want to say that was our six was my top six. And I think that's, that's the tier that way, that is. And then there, to me, there's a drop off. Eagles fans are going to murder you. Don't care. And I can't wait to take it. But to me, that was my top six. And I don't want to say, Herbert was actually three on my list. And I just have a preference for Trevor. Trevor was four. But I think that list is those two. To me, Mahomes and Allen.

And then the next kind of three, four, and then it's like this is the next drop. And but it's really splitting hairs because all those guys are just so special. And I think Herbert's a damn good player. He was done to DeAndre Carter. DeAndre Carter had like doubled his career snaps last year. He broke his rib cartilage in week two. He was hard for half the season. And his numbers are fine.

They're not like they're bad. They are fine. And he was thrown into the Andre Carter with the worst possible situation. His starting, his elite left tackle didn't play a snap. Like it's just. we always the whole guy to take a step back he's really really good he's he's elite i know i hate throwing around that turn but he is and it's just that the it was a season from hell and they still made the playoffs and it's like he is just honestly he is tough he's athletic he can make every throw he's a good processor yeah i'm

excited to see him this year and it's like just want to agree with you guys is that he's up there he's still an upper tier guy even if you have some qualms about kellen more and what certain aspects of the cowboy's offensive looks like over the last couple years. I think we can all agree that Kellyn Moore is a functioning NFL offensive coordinator. Correct. Correct. He's not Joe Lombardi, which is a win. Yes.

Remember the shit to not shit? Yes. Same thing with play callers. That's exactly the jump in tears. I mean, yeah, he got no help from the run game. It's just like every, every, yeah, just no help. So I'll stop with that point, but it's just, yeah, I was thrilled to get him at six. I'm going to be honest with you.

I know. I'm very, I'm happy for you. I was prepared before we started this exercise to pick J.1 Hertz, because I assume neither one of you guys would pick Jalen Hertz. To me, it would have been between Jalen Hertz and Lamar. At six for me, because I assumed Herbert was going to be off the table, and I thought that Trevor would be as well. So I am very happy to get the guy. I had ranked number four at number six.

Okay. Derek, you're up. Seventh overall pick, who you got? I think the easy pick is the other guy who just played in the Super Bowl, which is Jalen Hertz. But I am actually going to meme myself, basically, and pick Dak Prescott because I still think that he is in this level of quarterback. And the reason I say that is, and this is not necessarily to take away from Jalen Hertz, even though I'm like kind of pitting them against each other because I think these to me are like

kind of clearly the last two in this like tier of high quality play. The reason I like Dak is it's kind of the reason I like Lamar in a sense is like with Lamar, there's so many different things he brings to your offense. And I think in a different way, DAC kind of brings that, like where you can go empty if you want and just do a bunch of quick game stuff. You can get under center and be a hardcore, like, play action team. He can be a guy who's going to get to your checkdowns. He can be a guy who's going to take a bunch of deep shots. He can be a guy who is hell or high water will throw that seam ball and he will try to get you a touchdown.

Maybe to a fault sometimes, I will admit. Sometimes. But I love that attitude. And the way he plays, it feels like he is constantly playing quarterback on hard mode. That's just like a way. It's just something that I appreciate. Like, it just feels like he's trying to do the Peyton Manning stuff. And like nobody is going to be Peyton really. But it feels like he is trying to play that level of game and do every single type of real quarterback thing. And then you even go into like the way he sets protections and like gets them in and out of different plays, handles all their shifts and motions. Like he to me is just such a cerebral player. And I think just because he plays for the team that he plays for and they haven't like won a Super Bowl with him as to. the quarterback. He kind of unfairly gets criticism that I think Tony Romo also experienced where he was also in this upper echelon, but because he didn't necessarily win the way people thought that the Cowboys, for whatever reason, believe should constantly win. He kind of got dinged a little bit,

but I think when I watch him, he just does so many different things that I appreciate. And I think he's such an insane floor raiser. And kind of like Burrow has enough of the flare as a playmaker that it's like, okay, this gets us over the hump in that regard. I feel really good about where we're at in basically every aspect. Oh yeah. You, I mean, you don't have to argue to me at all. I think I'm I think I'm preaching to the choir with Nate here. I had that I had that seven. I had deck seventh as well and I'll just lay out some stats because I just have to always keep doing this. And this is the show I was waiting to do this. But third and passing success rate last year. Yes, he missed some time. But third and pass success rate after Mahomes of Josh Allen third and combined passes since

2019 after Mahomes and this other guy named Drew Burris. So okay, right there. That's just success rate. And that's how he plays. He's a machine. He's a did to do. brutally efficient is always the term I used with him. That's how he plays. He's brutally efficient. He is that borough stuff we talk about where he's willing to check it down and operate quickly. Dak does that already. And I'm,

Burroughs, of course, younger. So it's like not fair to compare him. But that's how Dak plays already. They actually have more similarities and people want to admit, which is kind of something we already have kind of mentioned a little bit too. But he has like more EPA last year. He started running again because it was the most healthy he's been as far as his legs. And you remember, it's like, you're decent.

You're a decent. rudder. Oh yeah, that Mississippi State and early career DAC stuff is coming back up. He had, he generated more EPA off design runs than Josh Allen. He had fifth most after Jalen Hertz, Lamar, Justin Fields, and Daniel Jones. And so he has that in his bags too. He turns 30. His cap hit is $26 million this year. So that is something that people were going to bring up. And that's even structured. Yes. And I do think in this exercise, it kind of, you get to cheat a a little bit because that next deal, they'll probably artificially lower his cap hit. So there is a little, there's a little cheat there.

So it might go up next year, but it might come back down the year after that. But he's a machine. And I think he, what Derek is saying about sometimes with the Cowboys knock, he also has the commentators for a lot of his games, have been Troy Aikman and Tony Romo. I'm sure they're really apt to praise him,

the guy the next Cowboys quarterback that's trying to break all their records and everything. So I also think the interception stuff he got knocked for last year. That's because he, like Derek said, He tries shit. Yeah. He throws a scene ball. He's trying to win the game, man. And like,

that's the kind of quarterback I want. He's not a guppy. He's not a guppy. He's not a guppy. He's going to push the ball and try and slit your throat and do all that stuff. And sometimes, like Derek said, sometimes it's like, hey,

you don't have that elite arm strength. So maybe not try that, but I love it. And of course, all the pre-snap stuff, the mental side, he's teaching tape to it. Like,

I love his game, his place down everything. So he was seventh on my list. And the first N of C, quarterback to go, which I think is interesting. But yeah, I can't fault this pick at all because this is exactly what I've taken them. All right. Who's next for you, Nate? Because that's going to lead to my next question. I'm going to go with Jalen Hertz here. Yes. Yep. And this is agreeing with Derek. So why, why DAC on your list in your list above Jalen Hertz? It's, I'm still a little

trepidious about how much help Hertz had last year. And I do think he ascended as a player. I just still have questions on him. I think you can't knock the growth that he had as a player. But it's just like even some of the underlying metrics with this fantastic situation around him, it's kind of, you know, I'm a little, it's a little worrisome for a little bit, not worrisome, but just like where I hesitate just a little bit. So even with two all pro offense alignment and all pro receiver, pro bowl caliber, second receiver and tight end, a strong run game and everything, only 53.3% of his past attempts were true dropout. with no play action, no screens.

That was 30th last year. That was 132nd out of 135 qualifying quarterback since 2019. So even with this ideal situation, there's still a lot of training wheels. Okay. Here's my counter to that. Still essentially year two of him as a starter. Correct. So are we worried about the training wheels moving forward?

Do you feel like those are going to continue to come off and that we're going to see a better version of him as a pastor even though we saw last year under ID. deal circumstances. If he continues how he played last year this year, then I will eat crow and go like, whatever. He can maintain this. He's losing his offense coordinator who by all accounts, and we've talked about on the show, that whole offense changed and got better when Stiking started calling plays for him and streamlined everything. And so losing that, I'm a little hesitant on that, but also Jason Kelsey's getting older. So he might lose that center. Lane Johnson's getting older. Might lose that right tackle. Not this year, not this year. Saying down the row, this is a three, four year

exercise that we're doing here. So that's where I just have some hesitations with that. But having said all that, that's all the negatives that I have on him. I just have to say, like, he was 11th and passing success rate, which is better than I thought he could ever attain. So I'm already eating crow there, eighth and EPA per dropback, eighth and EPA per pass attempt. So now I'm just a scrambles, just him throwing the ball. Fourth and QBR, he had 67 rushing first downs last year. Yes, a lot of those were from the QB sneaks. But still, the fact that they can ask him to do all those QB's is a credit to him because he's so strong. He's a different type of runner than a lot of these running quarterbacks.

And that is unique and something that we should praise and prop up. But his design rush rate last year was 18%, which is the fifth highest since 2012. Three Lamar seasons and the Cam Newton's Patriots season was way up there, which actually kind of surprised me. I didn't realize it was that much. Bill has been yearning for that triple option to you. They had nothing else, man. Nothing else.

Nothing else. That was the Josh McDaniels like, I'm giving you more. credit that I thought I would ever before because he knew he knew where his bread was buttered that year. But I just think that he does get a lot of help. And the offensive line, yes, we've talked about E.J. Brown, Devante Smith and the past catchers, but the offensive line was very conducive for his growth because he had so many clean pockets to grow in. But watching him in that Super Bowl, he was the best player on the field for the Eagles. Yeah.

That matters. Yeah. That matters. But that's only one game. And it's only one game. And it's only one game. And I can understand why that is enough. for you to say, I'm going to give a couple of these other guys of bump.

And the Trevor thing, obviously, he's been a plus player for also only one season, but the supporting cast is not nearly as good. You have a lot of love for Trevor. I think that that's totally reasonable. Derek, where are you on J.1 Hertz? I hear Nate talk about J.1 Hertz all the time. But when you're trying to kind of separate and extract the player that we saw last year from what is around him in Philadelphia, how do you try to go through that exercise yourself?

The thing Nate said about true dropbacks is kind of sums up where I'm at, and that's why I picked Dak is because Dak can do everything under the sun, which like in this exercise, theoretically, you're kind of plucking them out from their team and like fitting them onto wherever and then you can do whatever you want with the offense. And to me, Dak just did a lot more. Whereas with Jalen Hurts kind of to Nate's point, even with an incredible offensive line, incredible skill players at basically every single spot, except for the third issue where you could kind of argue. But you know what I mean? Like they just have pro bowlers and all pros everywhere. It was still kind of this simplified offense in a way. And he obviously,

ran it exceptionally well. I think his accuracy's gotten better. I think his decision making has gotten quicker and better. I think he started to manage the pocket a little bit better even. But it still to me is like if you plucked him out of this and put him in a more average-ish situation, I'm a little bit worried that he would not be. I don't think he would individually play to the level that he had last year, which is not to say he would suck. I don't think he would randomly turn into, you know, a pumpkin. Like I think he would still be probably be the above average quarterback. I just am not quite sure he would be able to sustain this elite level of play. And I think the issues that you would run into with not being able to be as multiple as other

offenses would really be a problem if the Eagles weren't as talented as they are. Luckily, they are and Howie Roseman continues to refill the coverage constantly, so it might not matter. But that's just kind of the concern that I have with him. On the other hand, I will say, Hertz has gotten better every single year for the past like seven seasons that he's been playing football. And so it's entirely possible that he does continue to grow, get better throwing over the middle of the field. get even better at throwing, you know, from, you know, managing the pocket a little bit better, stuff like that.

I think that's all entirely possible. For me, it's just, I would like, like, one more year of seeing some of those things get a little bit better before I think he's in the elite tier. For now, I think he's just, like, very good. Yeah, that thrown over the middle and stuff was the stuff I had hesitance about. And that's the thing. He did improve in it, but it's still not like. It's still not in that dad.

It's not good. Yeah, like, yeah. It's still so early, though. I mean, it was still so early in his trajectory as a starter. And I also think you mentioned the multiplicity, Derek, and I think the one thing that makes it just a little bit harder, again, as we're trying to yank apart his role in the Eagles offense versus everything else around him,

some of that multiplicity comes because of him. His ability and what he can do as a runner, I think that we underrate that sometimes in just how brutally efficient the Eagles offense could be. You know, they were third and success rate on offense. I think he has a huge role in that. If you look at rushing EPA generated in the NFL last season, he had more than 40 EPA generated as a rusher. No one else in the league had more than 21.

So he generated three more touchdowns worth of value as a runner than any other player in the league. So I'm with you guys on a lot of this stuff, but I just like want to check myself more than anything else when I start thinking about. But he just generates so much flexibility and efficiency with what he can do as a runner that I don't want to understate. that when we're talking about everything else that he does as a thrower right now. And that's why I, like you said, you're checking yourself. And I agree with that is that even though there's things that aren't ideal or how I view quarterbacks or value in quarterbacks, it'd be hypocritical to not mark his growth. Like Derek just said, every year he's gotten better. And that is something when I'm scouting prospects. This is why I was high on Desmond Ritter, totally different

type of player. But he got better every year with every start. And it's, isn't that important? Lamar is a good example of that. Lamar. Isn't that something I hold dear to my whole like, you know, my dogma of watching football? And so it's, that is something that I need to kind of like, I have to check myself sometimes with it. And it's just and then, but it's just there's other noises to screaming up about it. But it's, he has gotten better. And there's just those little things. You can see glimpses of him getting better. It just has to work on consistency. So That's why it's eighth is, I think is perfect for him. I think Eagles fans would tell you he's two.

And I think the pessimists, like us saying the negative stuff, he was in a neutral situation. He'd be more 16th to 18th. So I think that's nonsense. I think eight is as low as you'd see him on pretty much any list that you would look at going into the season. I'm saying if you didn't play for the fucking Eagles. Right. So that's what I talk about that. I think you are totally on point and totally within reason for everything that you said.

And I think I feel pretty similarly. But I will say that any list that you're going to look at heading into this year, it is probably as low as you're going to see him on any list. That's fine. But I do think it's important to acknowledge that. I'm more glad that I'm in agreement with the guy that's charting every single quarterback and every single throw than the people that look at the box score stats. So I'll just, I'll just put it if I'm neutral.

Yeah, I think I'm glad I defer to or agree with somebody that's on the show right now. I had a top eight. And I think you could drop him anywhere. in my opinion from five to eight. If you wanted to argue him over Trevor Lawrence based on what he was last year, I wouldn't do that, but I would get it. I think you can make an argument for him over Lamar Jackson,

based on how he played last year and some of Lamar's inconsistency as a past over the last couple years if you just look at the numbers. Also, the contract is very good over the next three years. It gets much bigger later. It does. And if you look at the way that it's structured, but his cat... But this exercise is three years, okay?

Jay one hurts his cat pits over the next three years are $6.1 million, 13.5 million, and 21. 1.8 million. Those will go up as the option bonuses or exercise, but they're still going to be fairly low over the next three years. So I totally get. I think that this is an eight person list for the next three years. I think when you get to nine, it becomes much, much more difficult. Thankfully, I have the ninth pick. And I agree with that. My top eight was pretty much so easy. It was like, I didn't even have to look anything up. I was like, boom, blah, blah, blah, I rattled that off laying a bed on Google Docs, which is great that you could do that on your phone.

So, but it's just, that was my top eight. It was easy. And then, but after this, this was, this was very hard. I, at that top eight, I'd rattle it off very quickly. It was pretty simple. After that, you could go in so many different directions. So many. Okay.

Let's hear it. Come on, do it. I'm picking Aaron Rogers. Oh, my goodness. That was actually not where I thought you were going with. Let's hear it. Okay. Even if it's two years, okay?

Even if it's two years of Aaron Rogers. And then we're having a conversation recently about just if we were talking about moving out from a quarterback or having to just pick a quarterback you're dropping in, what tier of quarterback that would probably be. Let's say it's Jacobi percent. Okay. It's the guy who could be available in free agency for you. If you had to roll with him for a season, you could do it. I would rather have two years of Aaron Rogers somewhere between MVP Aaron Rogers and the guy we saw last year for two years and one year of Jacoby percent or stop getting. starter de jure than any other quarterback on this list.

That's where I sit with it. I get it. The heights that you could potentially reach for that one or two years with Aaron Rogers as your quarterback compared to all of the other guys that I could pick in this situation, I would just, I'd rather have that. I would rather take that shot. I would rather make the bet that the Jets just made than any of the other ones available at the position.

Think about it. The Jets could have overpaid for Derek Carr. the Jets could have tried to hunt a guy in that tier compared to waiting and trading multiple draft picks for Aaron Rogers. But they didn't because their best path to being a really good football team this year and hopefully next year was to try to take a dice roll on Aaron Rogers. And that is precisely what I am going to do in a similar position. Yeah, at least you don't have conditional picks tied to it. Yeah, I can't lose my job here. So that also helps.

It does. This is where I struggled with Rogers last year. he would still have some of those FU, unbelievable, 0.01% throws. That's why I'm betting on it, because the physical talent has not really diminished at all.

Even though he did hurt his calf today. So that's a good start. But I think the fact that that element of his game, if you look at it, he was second in the league in big time throw percentage last year. I'm sure.

Second after Josh Allen. So the fact that you have that and if he's a little bit more engaged and it's so many different other aspects to it, I'm willing to bet on those things falling into place and me getting a guy who's closer to the MVP we saw the two years before that.

And that's what I was going to say is just the, it's the mental side is how much is he going to push it? How much is he going to throw over the middle? Because last year he said, screw this. I'm not pushing the ball over the middle. Like I'm not getting an interception. Everyone's going to get on me about and like talk about all this. So I think this year he will have that motivation obviously being in New York and obviously wanted to prove something.

And that's why I understand that bet if he does do that. If he does embrace the dragon, enter the dragon a little bit more, and get back into that a little bit more or back into that mindset. Then I understand this bet. That's what that's the scary side. It's not the physical ability. It's how mentally engaged he is. But that's why I feel better about it. Because it's not the physical ability.

And so I think that there's a way to kind of just turn that switch. And that's what I would want to bet on because look at other guys who I could pick here. Oh, yeah. Who should I feel better about than maybe Aaron Rogers. will give a shit for two years. I don't feel better about anyone than that. I get it. I had trouble placing him.

I have him in red with no mark on him, like right in this next year. So I had no idea where to go with him. So what do you think, Derek? I actually want to hear. I think I probably would have done the same thing here because of what Robert is saying. Like, he's, if he's even slightly better than he was last year. And truthfully, I think he's actually better than people remembered. I think it's just because he had kind of fallen off from the,

back-to-back. They were top 10 passing offense. They were really good. It's just he wasn't the MVP flamethrower that he had been the past couple years. And he had also like just come off of that like really ugly 49ers like playoff. Like it was just a really weird stretch of Aaron Rogers play relative to what he had just done. But he was still mostly good. It's just kind of like Nate said it's like, can we get him to throw over the middle a little bit?

And then I think he probably is going to scramble less than he has in the past. But like if he throws over the middle again, like I don't think that's going to be a problem. I think he's going to be able to make all the throws that you need. He's going to be able to do all that stuff. So I would still be optimistic enough in this scenario to do it, especially too. I think the thing is I'm still a little bit more questionable on Garrett Wilson than other people, but I think he's very clearly a good player and he's a better one-on-one separator than anybody that Aaron Rogers had to throw to last year. 100% of the middle. That's going to really, really coaxed Aaron Rogers in, I think, into making more of those throws.

And really getting some more like gimmies. Because like that was part of why the Packers offense was so good with Devante Adams. You guys have talked about this a ton. Is Devante Adams had so many gimmies even just in like the, the quick game, he would take a two-yard pass or a screen and turn it into 15 yards. And like, Gary Wilson isn't that level of player. But he has that kind of spark where he can turn a seemingly, you know, normal pass into some sort of explosive play.

And I think Rogers finally having that guy again after not having that really at all last year. I think that's a good enough reason to bet on him getting back to that. I think Watson is explosive. I think he's less reliable down to down as a number one option within the passing offense than Garrett Wilson is even at this stage. And he's more like a pure down the field burner field stretcher type, whereas Wilson is like throw it to him anywhere. He's going to be able to play like that.

I will very quickly. The Packers were ninth away to DVOA overall last season on offense. Their passing game was 14th over the course of the season. In the back half of the season from week nine on, the Green Bay Packers were 10th in passing DVOA. So even in a down season. Two rookie receivers and Randall Cobb, gimp it around. Even in a shrug-worthy season for Aaron Rogers, they were still a top 10 passing offense to the back half of the season with a very questionable young supporting cast.

I'm willing to make that bet in this moment. I get it. I like that. That's why I said I had no idea where to rank them, but this tier of players, I was actually kind of dreading if I had to pick him at what would have been pick 11 like kind of going like because I was worried about I would have to make this argument so this actually made me feel a little bit better so because I think I took Rogers year one and it was like I think I picked him fifth and I remember just having to make hey it's only going to be two more years he's still played yeah he's still going

so obviously it's not it's not the worst thing to have no one year like what if he does have an f-u season and he's the fifth best quarterback yeah that's that's pretty sweet okay pretty sweet but now the Hall of Fame arguably like top five to seven quarterback of all time is off the board. So where are you going here, Derek? Now that that type of guy is gone and we don't feel good about the other options. I feel very bad about every name I'm looking at on my computer screen right now relative to like, I think I'm between two and there is one that my heart wants to take and one that feels like it makes more sense as a bet.

And I think I know exactly the two guys that you're talking about. I think I'm going to go with the latter, and I'm going to pick Kyler Murray. And the reason, like, it's a very, obviously last year he did not play at that grade of a level. But I am very willing to chalk that up to Cliff Clingsbury being kind of not an NFL coach. And I think he's got to prove that over most of his tenure. And what's funny about Kyler is in a lot of ways, he's like not my kind of quarterback. You know, he's very short. I think some of the restrictions that you have in terms of throwing over the middle of the field are a little frustrating.

I think even sometimes what he does in the red zone is, really, really frustrating because of how short he is. However, we've seen him for stretch his play at kind of an MVP level. He's incredible with his legs. I think he actually did get better as a quick game passer as he's developed in the league. I think he's gotten a lot more efficient, a lot punch here. I think he's gotten a lot more accurate in that in that regard. And then obviously we've seen what he can do. He put your reps at it. He had to, yeah, that offense, like you had to get better. He was going to get pinch. And then like what he does down the field, I think. think is incredible. And he's like, he's a really good creator when he needs to be. Obviously,

you worry about some of the injury stuff. And he hasn't really been able to play the back half of a lot of seasons. But when looking at the other names on this list, I don't think anyone else on this list has played really even close to the level that we've seen from Kyler Murray, right? His best. And so I'm kind of just making the bet that if I pulled Kyler Murray out of arguably the most dysfunctional franchise in the league right now and put him into an average situation in this, you know, in this situation that we have, I think that he could still be a top 10 producer again. And I think he would be really dynamic and could do a lot of stuff. So again, I don't feel great about any of the names that I could have picked here,

but I'm kind of just leaning on the guy that I've seen play the best football at his peak. Yeah, that's honestly, I probably should have considered him more at that spot than I ended up considering him. He's 26 years old or will turn 26 this season. Health is a concern. And let me read off something here for you. He's a $16 million cap hit this year. It's $52 million in 2024 and $45.6 million in 2025. So we're paying a lot for Kyle Burry and he doesn't stay on the field very often. So those are, those are my main concerns, but I think everything that you said is valid. I think with Kyler is a card when he had a, the best situation.

around him when the ball was bouncing the Cardinals way the first half of 2021 season when I was pulling my hair out as the Cardinals were on a wind streak. And everyone's like, are you wrong about Cliff? And I was like, you guys will see. Not really. Don't you? It's not too worried. But that stretch, Kyler is playing at an MVP caliber level. Truly. Not even just saying like fandom or a heat of the moment. Like what he was doing, he was making his teammates better. The game, I mean, there's, multiple games to just stick out what he was doing like as far as i think it was a game against the browns i really want to say and it might be mixing up a couple of years here but it was against the browns and he truly was just lasering corner throws in the red like outside the red zone throws outside the numbers down the field i mean just wild compared to what some other guys the league can do his deep ball ability is something that i hope the new staff taps into because it kind of went away maybe i think it was just one of those where they're like oh we don't have the line for it. It's like, well, coach it up.

Concept, the hell out of it, because that is a weapon. His rookie year is the deep balls he was throwing or some of the best in the league. And I think that's something that they could tap back into and it'll help just everything. It'll help maybe stay away from maybe some of the mistakes they get through trying to do too much. I'm glad the point that Derek brought up about the quick game stuff because that is something that stands out when he watch them, changing the arm slots that we talk about. But if we're talking about a guy that makes his teammates better, Kyler does that. He is not, yes, he'll take a few things away from the table, but he adds so much to the table.

He makes, he made Cliff Kingsbury look like a competent play caller. And I hate to like just beat up a joke and, you know, beat a dead horse, but he did. And it wasn't the best situation around him. He was making everybody look good. So it's a good pick by by Derek. And I like it. I like it a lot. I want to see a healthy collar because they use another player.

That's just so much fun. And truly should get more praise. The thing that you just said actually really quick about he takes some stuff off the table, but he still makes his team better. That's actually kind of like the Jalen Hertz argument in a lot of ways. And like Kyler Murray recently has not played to that level, but it's the same idea of like, yeah, maybe you can't throw over the middle as much. And like there are certain things that you can't do from the pocket, yada, yada, yada.

But on the things that you can do, you are making everybody around you better and you can create in a way that only a handful of other guys can. And so like, again, that's kind of the stuff that I'm betting on, even if I very fully admit there are a lot of weird other factors not on the field. And I think that's important to acknowledge. If we're going to talk about that as a positive for some other guys, whether it's Jalen Hertz or Joe Burrow or just some of these guys who are these kind of focal points in a positive way of your franchise, I don't think Kyler should be fully absolved for the way the cardinals have operated over the last couple of years and what it's like when your quarterback has maybe some of the questions that

have been associated with him over the last few seasons. It's awesome. The clauses and the work ethic stuff. Yes. And that's a very real thing. And that's why we got, it's not some corny thing that we're referencing to, because I agree with it. When you're the quarterback, you're the dude. And it matters. And for not just the guys on the field, it's day in, day out, getting your ass in there at 5.30 in the morning and beating everyone else in there. Even if it's performative, it's not. But even if you think it is, you have to do it because you're the dude that they pay a lot of money. So I agree with that part, too. All right. Who you got at 11? Oh, I mean, I, this is, whatever, I can pick whoever I want here, right? We're arguing all these guys. Why is about just go with Justin Fields? Why? If he finished with a better QBR than Tom Brady, like we all predicted that he would last

year. And again, some of that comes from his legs. I'll talk about, I'll talk about it a second. It's, I just think I'm betting on what's going to have the situation improving around him. And I think he's going to take at least some reference of some leap this year. If it's a hop, is it a skip or. is it a jump. I'm not sure, but it's going to be one of those. I really do think that. The sack rate,

I'll just start with the negatives. The sack rate has to improve. Even if the situation, yeah, it has to. It just has to. He's his own worst enemy. They're trying to, trying to help him out. He's trying to get more reps. And I think the coaching staff has been very good for him. I am optimistic about Luke Getsy. I'm optimistic about Iber Flus. I'm optimistic about the situation around him. He's his own worst enemy, but I think he just needs reps. And I think with more reps, that's going to get chopped down. He'll never be a Trevor Lawrence Mahomes, you know, under 5% sat guy,

but if you can get it into single digits, going from 14.7%. I can't believe I'm saying that number and saying this is, so some improvement there to get it under 10%. I think that's the first step, just to take the easy place. He has flashes of it. Usually we say,

oh, he has flashes of these top tier throws. He can do that. It's doing the easy parts and doing the easy stuff, playing quarterback. His success rate last year. So continuing the negatives, it was under 40%, 38.7%. Since 2019, that's 128th of 135 quarterbacks. And I'm arguing for this guy.

But 22nd in EPA per dropback, which is lifted up because of his scrambling. Because if you look at EPA per attempt, where it's just a throws, he's 29th last year, comparable to Matt Ryan, which usually would be a good thing, but not last year. It's one year, not great. He scrambled 70 times. He generated more EPA on scrambles than anyone since 2019. only Josh Allen last year and the year before had more EPA per scramble since 2019. So obviously the scrambling stuff, I don't think that is sticky.

I don't think that is something you can repeat every year. I don't want to see that repeated every year. But I think there is going to be some growth for him as a passer because of the weapons, because of the situation, all those types of things, those flashes of top tier, really, he can make the hard throws. It's just he's got to be consistent with it and take the easy stuff. I was on a Bears podcast a couple weeks ago, and they asked like, what would be a reasonable expectation for fields? And I looked at Donvin McNabb's third year.

And I think that is the exact numbers that he should be aiming for. That was 3,200 yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 picks. McNabb had a lower completion percentage, but low 60 completion percentage would be good, while also maybe a 20% drop off in the rushing numbers. And I think that would be a good year from him and someone that you build around. But just the tools he has as a runner is one of the greatest weapons in the league. the flashes he throws as a passer is something I want to work with if I were a coach. I want to work with that. The toughness that he plays, making guys better.

He has flashes of it. Homing in on the consistency of all of it, I think that's why I'm betting on Justin Fields right here with this pick. To me, it's beyond even the numbers at the end of the season. I want it just to feel different. I want the process and just like the, I want it to feel like an NFL passing game consistently and feel like he can operate in that world consistently because it still doesn't feel like that. He threw 318 passes last year in 15 games. They couldn't even do it. And that's not all

his fault. I knew this conversation was going to happen. And I went back and I watched some stuff today. I was going back at watching games at the end of the season when I was a little bit pessimistic about the trajectory and the direction things were starting to go. Because I was pretty happy in the middle of the year. And then a couple of games at the end of the year, I was like, oh, man, I'm kind of scared again. And I was watching the beginning of the Eagles game. And just like two plays in the first three drives. One, they run like a little sprint out to, I think it was Equiminius St. Brown on third down. And he dropped the ball and they punted it away.

And then there was a max protect play action shot they took on the next drive. And they're asking Vilas Jones to win one-on-one against James Bradbury on the outside. And I'm like, just throw this shit in the trash can. Like it is so, so different now, hopefully, what they have in that supporting cast. Darno Mooney wasn't even playing at the end of last season. Darno Mooney now, hopefully, is their third best receiver. And I just, but you have to see so much growth. I think it's really important to acknowledge just how far he has to go as a passer

because some of those numbers are deeply, deeply concerning. And you can talk yourself into the upside. You can talk yourself into the flashes and I have, but I lose a lot of sleep at night over what he has looked like in an NFL passing game over the last two years. And again, the sacrate and the holding out of the ball and the timing and the feel of it is the number one concern that I continue to have. I so badly wanted to take Justin Fields for basically all the reasons that Nate laid out, where it's like if you just build a quarterback, he is like what you want,

where he's a monster who runs like a 4-4 and has a rock-a-launcher arm, not quite in like the Josh Allenville, but like that, almost that caliber of tools where he did. I don't think he's as creative as the guys that we're talking about. No, that's another one of my concerns. He's a robotic thrower. Yes, he is not nearly as loose for somebody with his athleticism. some of those other guys he doesn't have that force of nature creative aspect to his game as a thrower i still believe that that's he he he he's the one like kiler russ and him have some real legit baseball background

there's other guys but those are ones come to mind he's the one that looks more like a baseball thrower like as far as how he throws the ball like he looks like a baseball player not not complimentary i don't mean that's not derogatory i mean when i say that so yeah but uh go on derrick yeah and like some of the flashes that Fields has been, like some of the dig throws that he's been able to make or like those deep glances, some of the stuff that he does down field. I think his pocket management actually has gotten a little bit better. Like he, he still takes an unbelievable amount of sacks because he's probably always going to be like that. And also they had like the worst offensive line in football. But I think he has gotten a little bit better about like when to just get out,

which I think is important. And I think if the offensive line gets a little bit better, that will help him. the reason I didn't pick him is kind of what you're saying, Robert, is like, at least with Kyler, like I've seen it, right? Like, I know that he can play at this level, even if it's, you know, injury stuff can hurt him and there's some limitations, yada, yada, yada, with fields, it's like more, I think I see it, but it's not actually materialized yet. And I think he can absolutely get there. Like, I'm still pretty bullish on fields and I think he can't get there.

Just for this exercise, I was more like, I'd rather take a different kind of bet. with where I was at. You can see some of the drill work working, but it's not every play. Yeah, exactly. His biggest issue, because he's a big game hunter, is he always bills backwards in the pocket, which is a no-no, especially in the NFL. That is a guy that's been the best athlete on the field since he's been born. And he's used to be able to do that.

Times he's stepping up and out. And I'm like, okay, there it is. And then he does it again where he bills backwards. And it's a 14-yard sack. So it's not making a bad play worse. That is what he has to get out of his game. and he's in year three. It's harder than ever to play quarterback.

I really do think that. Even if numbers have been lifted, the defenses are more exotic. They're more what they pressure you. They change the looks after the snap. Everybody does it now. And I think that's why we have to take time with these guys. I'm like, really year three is where it's like,

okay, now we can see that. As a Bears fan, I'm sure you don't want to hear that. And you're like, oh, I already want the guy. But it's like, it's those flashes you're hoping that the situation and the coaching is like,

all right, we're really going to lift this. up and lift up the floor for him because I do think the ceiling is just still so high. I'm still optimistic about him. I really am. It's just that I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. And that's how I am. I am also optimistic, but I think it's important to acknowledge just how far he has to go.

And I think some of those numbers that you throw out throughout there are pretty instructive. Scary. All right. Yeah. All right. I'm at 12 here. I understand an argument for Tua at this stage based on what he did last year. The fact that he's a little bit younger, the injuries are terrifying to me.

and we really only saw him do it for one year in a very, very good situation. I... Son of a bitch. I know. It's hard. This whole range sucks. This is hard.

I had like so many notes on fields and half of them were negative. All right. I, the two guys I am picking between here. Okay. Are as far apart as you can possibly be in the reasons that I would pick them. get fun with it. Scared one of them is my next pick. I'm going to pick Anthony Richardson.

Fuck you. Oh. Damn it. I thought I had him to myself. I was so excited about it. Nice. So, here are the two guys that I was between for the 12th pick. It was Kirk Cousins and Anthony Richardson.

Okay. Kirk Cousins, in the last three seasons, among active players, Kirk Cousins is 10th in EPA per dropback. If you look at non-play action, because he was a play action merchant for a little bit under the previous regime, he's eighth. Okay? He is just the eighth to 12th best quarterback in the league, if you look at passing numbers consistently. And he's only 34 years old. We'll see what he's going to cost over the next three years.

It's expensive now. But let's say he gets something in the Derek Carr range for his next contract. His agent is better than that, and I assume he'll get more than that. But even if it's in that range, even if it's in that range, even if it's, $33 million a year for the next three years for Kirk Cousins. That security and what that gives you is very real compared to a lot of the other guys on this list that you could potentially pick. And if I was more of a coward, that's the decision I would make.

But my job isn't on the line here. So I am going to take a swing on the best athlete we have ever seen play the quarterback position coming into the NFL. I believe a lot of the stuff that you've said about him, Nate, where the just the aspects of playing quarterback that you've ever. want to see are more advanced and more pronounced than people were framing it to be coming into the draft, his feel for the pocket, some of those things that he can do. I really do believe that we can see improvements in mechanics and accuracy and have with

a couple guys over the last few years. So in this range, why not just take the biggest swing possible? And I can understand an argument for Bryce Young even at this spot compared to the other guys who are available, C.J. Stroud, too. but I just think the ceiling at this spot is why I would take a swing on a guy like this compared to the other options on the board currently. He was who I was taking next. So all the things you laid out, I'm a huge fan of them.

I think there's more to him that people have given credit for mentally and polish-wise. And by all accounts, he seems like a hard worker and a great dude. Yes. And people like him, which, again, we're going to keep reiterating that on top of being a truly once in a lifetime athlete at the quarterback spot. It's the upside just there and has all the other intangibles that you want at that position. And I mean, Josh Allen coming out, and it's not fair to compare anyone to the growth that Josh Allen had was had way like crazier misses than Richardson ever had. And at a lower level, you know, playing at Wyoming, playing against less competition, lesser competition.

So I'm just very high on Richardson overall. Like I really do think that he has a clear path to succeed. I love the play caller he has now with the Colts as well. And the weapons I actually think are pretty good for how he likes to throw it. Like if he's going to spray a little bit because he has such a rocket arm, well, let's get some big targets for him. So I think that Richardson,

I'm really, really high on him overall. So I'm kind of glad to hear you see the light as well. I know Derek does too. My job isn't on the line here. If it freaks out, who cares? So I would rather just take a risk on him rather than saying,

I'll get three more years of Kirk Cousins. You know, I think there's validity in that argument. I can understand picking Kirk Cousins in that spot based on how consistent in what he's been and how reliable at an underwhelming level, but reliable he's been over the last few years. I would rather

just go for the 500 foot home run. Oh yeah. It's swing out of my shoes. Who cares? I mean, Richardson rocks. Like the thing that, like everybody has said this, but you look at the elite quarterbacks and he looks like those guys. That's the reason. That is the reason. That was my argument before. If we're having that like kaiju fight at the

at the end of the road here. Like, he's the one that I'm going to bet on to give me a shot against the other guys. And I know, I say that after picking Joe Burrow third and talking about how we should appreciate some of those understated aspects of the position more that we do or I should, but I still, you look at it and I just have to talk myself into it. Burroughs doing all that at 6-4-230. Yes. You know, that's true.

You remember, he's a big boy. That is true. No, I know Derek likes Richardson too. So it's, it's cool. it's no it's I just think like you said Derek it's like that's what the elite guys look like and he can do it and there's more proof of it it's not you know people that just watch the combine and see the numbers and go oh that's why the NFL's eye on them it's like just watch the film of him and just watch what he's doing down to down there's more to him as a quarterback on top of the athlete stuff the pocket field to me is the biggest thing that makes me yeah that encourages me where it's just like he's comfortable that the fact that he's comfortable makes me so eyes down some of the other things that we could see that to me is that to me is a is like becoming my favorite trait, I think, with your quarterback. 100%. There were a lot of reasons to love Trevor Lawrence, obviously,

but that to me was the one where it felt like he is a different cat, where he just, even before the snap, it felt like he had such a good understanding of where pressure was supposed to come from. And if it didn't, he knew he didn't have to bail, like all that sort of stuff. And then when it did get there, he knew how to bail instantly. He knew where to move. He knew how to keep his eyes up, all that stuff. Trevor did all that.

Richardson isn't quite there, but you can see the high level flashes where it looks like the same exact way that like Justin Herbert like does. It looks like that and like you need a little bit more consistency. You need some more reps to get there. But he he has all of those high level refinement type traits in flashes. It's more about just getting him to do that consistently. That's why I think he was such a different prospect than Josh Allen because Josh Allen didn't have any of that. Josh Allen sucked at Wyoming. He just was built like a one out of one. type of guy and you just prayed that you could, you know, that he was a hard worker and that he

would really give it his awe. And eventually he did and he's become Josh Allen. That's not the path that you need with Anthony Richardson. With Anthony Richardson, it's more like a guy who is kind of there and kind of has some of this stuff and you just need it to be more consistent. And I think kind of like Nate had said with some of the skill players and some of the coaches that they have, I kind of feel pretty decent about them getting there, honestly. Yeah. And the thing with him as an athlete, this is something I always honed in on, This is why I was lower on Zach Wilson. This is why I couldn't get around on Malik Willis.

If you're a good athlete and a good scrambler, are you putting your eyes down as soon as the first reads dead and doing that? Yes, it's good that you can have that option. But if that's what you're relying on to win, that's what makes me worried. And Richardson would scramble as a last resort. And that's where I was like, oh, okay, okay, we got something here. You're trying.

The term I always kept coming back to us. He's trying to do the right thing. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. He's trying to do the right thing, the pocket movement, all that stuff. So, yeah, I think I love the home run till. And he just turned 21 yesterday as we're recording this. He is a baby.

So, yeah, just give him as many reps as possible. Let's get through the last round here fairly quickly. Derek, 13th pick here. What do you got for me? All right. It's my last pick. So I'm perfectly fine saying the other person I really, really wanted to pick here. I wanted so badly to take Gino Smith.

Because I think right now he can give you like top 12. kind of production, and he might for the next two or three years. He was ahead of Anthony Richardson on my big board here. And I just picked Anthony Richardson because I was like, you know, I'd fuck it. Yeah. I'm writing the same tier with you guys. I'm actually, I almost might bring myself to actually just take Gino. You should.

Yeah, I think I want to because it's kind of in the same line as like the Kirk Cousins argument, where it's like you know you have like this general level of competent quarterback play. But the thing that makes Gino a little bit different, and he's like $10 million dollars cheaper and his contract is a lot more controllable it's a lot more like easier to get around if you really need to and want to i agreed on that but i also think that if you look at like the level and consistency and percentage of like those fuck you throws there are a lot more of them from gino smith and there are from kirk cousins that's the difference to me and that's why it's it's like that where i just appreciate that kind of player who is trying to win you the game and like gino

the way that they were it was so funny that with russ everyone wanted to be like we're going to be this Guns, spread everything out, passing offense, and, like, Russ could never really get there. Gino instantly comes in, and he's, like, top five in the league at, like, that specific type of, like, just get in the gun and run true dropback stuff. The timing he plays with, his arm strength, the confidence, the timing, it's just very, like, a pro-teach tape type of quarterback. And the fact that he got there after he had not playing for, like, seven or eight years or whatever, it is remarkable. And I think a lot of people are probably going to hear me take him and be like, oh, well, aren't you. scare that he's maybe along the lines of like when Case Keenham or Ryan Fitzpatrick kind of had it is only one year. Yeah. And to me, where I think it's very different is I think when you saw

it with Fitzpatrick or McCown or Keenom like we brought up, it felt more fluky. It felt like they were doing some weird stuff out of the pocket and getting lucky. It felt like they were heavily relying on one superstar receiver kind of bailing them out like, you know, Stefan Diggs and stuff like that. And it just didn't feel like it had a sustainability to it. You watch Dino it looks like Prime Matt Ryan. It looks like Dak Prescott. It looks like Trevor Lawrence. Like he's doing the things from the pocket on time,

hitting all the throws over the middle at every level of the field. It's just, like I said with Dak, it doesn't feel like there's a concept or type of offense that you can't run with Geno Smith. And that's something that's valuable to me. And that's why I value, like I just valued that type of passer where it feels like I could get into any formation.

I could get into any look with any personnel package. whatever, we're going to find a way to make a good passing offense. Gino feels like he can do that. Obviously, he doesn't quite have the level of creation that some of the elite guys have. Granted, he had more of it last year than I thought. To be honest with you, but he's not quite in that elite tier. But it's just, I feel like he can give that top 12 kind of production again. And now with JSN, maybe a little bit more.

I'm with you. I think the only thing for me is that you haven't seen it that long. Like that's the one hang up I have. Everything you said, I think is totally reasonable. Absolutely. He has a play style. I'm a fan of. That was my number one note for him. He makes big boy throws. It could run everything. And last thing I'll say is that creation is so much better. He was the second most efficient scrambler last year after Josh Allen. And you're not going to run design runs for him. But he is one of those. It's third and five. One, two, three. All right, I'm going to tuck and run it. Got five yards. All right. Move the chains. He's a chain mover at quarterback. We're also making some freaking big boy throws. Big, big boy throws. In terms of games where it really felt like he could give you everything, even in terms of creation and those fuck you throws, the Saints game, man. Like he chose every single thing that you could want from a Pro Bowl, all pro level quarterback, he gave it to you. And obviously the offense kind of deteriorated over the second half of the season, which to me was not really his fault.

Like the offensive line got worse. I think they started to see the issues of not having a third receiver, which was really starting to creep up for them. the running game was not getting as many booms as they were in the first half of the season, which I think really hurt them. But I think Gino was still playing at a very hell level. And again, I think he can play at that level again, especially now that he has a much better third receiver and a much better middle of the field type for him. All right. 14, Nate, we got to get out of here less than two hours.

What do you got for him? Okay. Well, you guys took my, I can't believe you guys just took Richardson, Gino back to back. That was my like easy answers. I'm tempted to take the final boss of mid-tier quarterback, which is Derek Carr, tempted to take Jared Goff. And screw it, if we're taking swings, all right, he took a swing with fields. Let's keep it in the NFC North. Jordan Love, don't care.

That barely has any passes. I don't care. I am betting on a practice and a couple stuff I've seen from footwork and all the underlying things where I think there is a chance here that he's going to be okay. He's 25 in November, to put in perspective, that's the same age as Carson Wentz was as a rookie. He's younger than Hennon Hooker, who is the lion's potential quarterback of the future, and he's younger. So figure that one out. I'm just optimistic of what I've seen. That little glimpses of the Eagles game from last year.

I know it was a blowout at that time, but I'm not saying it'll win to MVP or anything, but I just think he has more to him that people are going to expect. I think he truly has grown. He has the size, athleticism, the arm strength, the stuff that that's what we're aiming for. That's the stuff that you're hoping to get out of these quarterbacks. I think he has cleaned up his stuff. He's cleaned up his throwing motion a little bit. So I'm betting on just those glimpses, of course, because he's got, what, like 20

pass attempts in his career. So that is what I, just those glimpses, I think there's going to be more to him. I think the weapons are going to be interesting. I think he's going to have a real good offensive line. They'll help him grow throughout this year. Screw it. So three year exercise going with Jordan Love. We'll see what we got.

I'm taking a fly around him. All right. I think that's crazy and I fully support it. The idea that would be Jordan Love, we have. haven't seen played. He's already expensive. It's just like, it's a hell of a swing from you, buddy, but I like it. So, Kirk Cousins is still on the table, and all the things I said about Kirk Cousins are still applicable. I'm still going to take price, John. Building around the rookies. Again, everything, what are my other options here? Okay, at Kirk Cousins, Derek Carter,

which I know what that is. So that's fine, but those guys are in their mid-30s, and I know exactly at a beginning and they're expensive. So why I'm going to take another bet on a young guy. And I think I've thought so much about this in the last two months. And it's exactly what you were talking about, Derek. And it's come from conversations with coaches and just other people. It's really kind of trying to drill down on that aspect of quarterback play that I think is the quickest path to viability and the thing that becomes most important.

And it's just that feel for the position. And if you had asked me, we talked about this in our quarterback show. I picked C.J. Stroud is the quarterback. I would take number one over Bryce Young. And I think that after thinking about it more over the last couple of months, that aspect of Bryce Young's game that he has in that way, I'm willing to take a bet on that just because he has a whole lot of it. He doesn't have a whole lot of much else because it's 180 pounds.

But I just think that that does raise your floor. And I think that the injury concerns are very real. with how big he is, I think that's totally reasonable. But if other guys available here like Tua, we've already seen Tua get hurt consistently. And Bryce Young is very cheap over the next few years. So again, I'm going to take the swing on Bryce Young compared to other guys that are still on the table here.

The thing that I will say about this that's funny is so Bryce Young was my quarterback three. But that's because in the draft, you're thinking 10 years ahead, at least for like the quarterback position specifically. Yeah. But my line with Bryce Young has been, I think he could probably be the best guy

for the like the rookie contract duration. Because I think kind of like you said, he has that incredible feel for the position. His accuracy is phenomenal. He's a very good creator. I think he's sometimes he can be a little jittery in the pocket. But I think he does have these moments where he's very willing to stay in there and make like it really nails throw like over the middle of the field. I mean the Texas game, he had a number of those that was like, okay, this is something he can do. Let's see how much of it he can do.

But I think like you said, like the feel for the position, I think when you add that on top of the Panthers. his offensive line is kind of good. Their skill players aren't that good, but they're competent. They're better than what a lot of other number one pick types are probably dealing with. And Frank Reich is, you know, last time I wax poetic about Frank Reich, I ran into a problem on this show, but I think Colts were going to be good. But I still think Frank Reich is a wonderful coach. So I think it's like, kind of like you've laid out.

It's actually a really good situation for a guy like him to kind of produce over this three, four year period that we're talking about. I mean, Tua has been heard consistently. He's about to get expensive. Kenny Pickett's going to be in year three. and like again, I think at that point, you're just banking on the rookie contract and what you could do with him. I think Kenny Pickett was fine, but like, that's where you're getting fine. Mack Jones is going to be in year three.

So it's just, again, resetting that clock and having a little bit of uncertainty compared to some of the other guys that are available and not wanting to dig into that Kirk Cousins, Derek Cartier, just because we know what that is. And it's pretty expensive for a guy that's going to be 34, 35 years old here really soon. So that's those are my answers. You're picking between the historical size outlier, the guy that's thrown 20 pass attempts in four years. the bosses of the mid-tier. Like that is what you're picking between here. Actually, of the mid-tier guys, I actually was higher on Jared Gough than I realized I would be. So that would be like my best of the rest pick, I guess would be it.

Yeah, that's probably a good one too. Yeah. But that's it. Just because we know what he is and in a good situation, we know he can handle it. And I mean, he was very, he was pretty awesome last year. But is there anyway, and like this is the reason, like the Bryce Young thing, I think that's why I would put him up here. is there any way a team trades for Bryce Young or trades for Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr or any of these guys would a team just traded for Bryce Young?

Probably not. Probably not, yeah. Does David Tepper, their owner? I mean, that's kind of where I sit with it. And that's why I'm willing to make that bet and have it be a little bit more uncertain. Okay. Yeah. We clocked in under two hours.

So good guys. Good job, guys. It's terrible hosting job by me. but that was a hell of a lot of fun. Derek, thank you very much for joining us. Very good to have you as part of this. Hopefully we will be chatting with you pretty regularly here as the summer and the season goes on. Really appreciate it, buddy.

Appreciate all of you listening. We will be back on Friday with our non-quarterback draft. Very much looking forward to that. In the meantime, I appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show. Thank you.