The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The 2024 Quarterback Draft

Episode Date: May 7, 2024

The quarterback draft is back! The rules are simple, which QB (and their contract) would you want leading your franchise over the next three seasons? Diante Lee and Derrik Klassen join Robert Mays to draft this year’s top 15. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert May. It's fun show for you guys today. It is time for our annual quarterback draft. It's May. It's the offseason. We are post-draft. We have done this each of the last few years. One of my favorite shows that we do each and every year. Joining me today for this year's edition of our quarterback draft here on the Athletic Football Show,

two old friends of the show. First off, it's DeAte Lee. Dei, how you doing, man? I'm good, man. Feeling good. From a coaching perspective, we're getting ready to start springball, so you can see the beard. I'm already working on it. These are pre-stress levels, and we'll see exactly just how hairy it gets throughout the rest of the year. But I'm feeling good, man. Also joining us today from Bleacher Report, Reception Perception, one of my favorite quarterback voices in this industry. Derek Klausen, Derek, how you doing, man? I'm doing great. You know, in

in kind of preparation for the show, I already started doing my charting for this year's the NFL offseason stuff that I'll do for reception, let me tell you, charting Patrick Mahomes after charting Joe Milton, very different experience for those wondering at home. I can't remember what it was that I was watching. I went back to watch the Titans offense last week for reasons that will become clear soon. And even watching the 2023 Titans offense compared to watching college offenses, I was like,

yeah, it's actually a pretty nice experience. I'm enjoying this after all this college tape over the last two months. If anybody ever wants to know why analysts are always so jaded when the draft comes around, it's because of that difference. Every year, I'm like, I have to fake half of these offenses that I'm watching are actually interesting or worse breaking down at the college level and quarterbacks that I know I don't like and have to try to give a sales pitch on. It's always nice once that's done and I can get back to watching Real Ball.

we got a lot of real ball to talk about today. For people who do not remember who people are unfamiliar with this exercise, we've done this each of the last few years, pretty simple set of ground rules. We're going to draft quarterbacks non-snake because it's just not as interesting

and it's fun to watch people get sniped and upset when guys go before, the guy they want goes right before they pick. So we're doing five rounds, 15 quarterbacks total. Three years. The next three years this is four.

So not one year, not five years. the next three years and contracts matter. That is less important, I think, with this exercise, this year specifically, there aren't that many guys on rookie deals. And also the ways that you can move money around with quarterback contracts, I think I'm less burdened by what the contract numbers look like than I was in the first year that we did this exercise, but just something to keep in mind, whether it's as a tiebreaker or whether you just think somebody that's on a rookie deal, you're just going to give them a slight

bump, something to keep in mind as we move through this. we did a random order generator to come up with the order here. We got Deontay first, me second, Derek, third. I would feel bad about this because it's not Snake, but I feel less bad because Derek got the number one pick when we did this last year. So this only feels right that he has to pick third this year. I'm sorry, Derek, but I'm not that sorry.

It's a little carmic justice, but yeah, getting able to not even have to think about my first pick last year, I'm fine with it. It's okay. All right, Deaete, you do have the first pick this year, and you can do the honors. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this because I feel like it's a pretty easy decision no matter how you slice it. But let's even there is some drama here. Who are you picking with the number one pick in the 2024 athletic football show quarterback draft?

You know, on the heels of the NFL draft, one of the things you'll see is like knowing what a team wants to do with their pick, but they're going to let the clock run. This is one of those situations where you see 10 minutes and then the graphic immediately flips to the pick is it. It's obviously Patrick Mahomes, right? And I think the coolest thing, this is probably one of, this is one of the rare opportunities we get with evaluating a transcendent quarterback, where you really have to watch the game to appreciate the nuance, right? If we're going by data, obviously, explosive play rate goes way down. Receivers of dropping balls left and right. He's not throwing past the sticks as often as we're used to him seeing, right? And then you turn on the game, and it's like, I've never seen a quarterback work through progressions like this.

I've never seen a quarterback able to change his arm angles like this to be able to escape this way, somebody who has all these different answers for what defenses are throwing at them, right? Like, I think back to 2020 and 2021, which is where I think it really started becoming evident in the modern era that there are certain quarterbacks you just can't blitz, right? And he was obviously at the forefront of that. You think of the Rams with Matt Stafford that first year were they able to go empty with everything. You couldn't blitz them. And I think with Mahomes, not only is he a guy you can't blitz, but we're, learning. He's a guy you can't play man against unless you've got a spy. This is a guy that

understands if you give him soft zone shells, how to check the ball down and create these run-after catch opportunities. And that's something that tripped up a lot of quarterbacks that I think we've had, you know, that we've considered highly, you know, in past exercises like this. So to see a guy at the top almost instantly make those adjustments, you know, coming into this year with the loss of personnel, with some attrition with the offensive line, and still be able to play at such a high level. This is one of those few opportunities, like I said, where the data almost doesn't do it justice. And he had a great year of quarterbacking. When you really turn it on snap by snap, there's not even a conversation to be had about who the best in the league is right now.

Independent of the regular season stats, you look at what he did in the playoffs and just how in control he was for 95% of those games. The Ravens gave him some issues in the second half of the Baltimore game. That's it. The first half of that Baltimore game, I remember, you know, Derek's in the group chat with me and we're all just like, what do you do? What else do you do? You only rush four. You play soft zone. You try to match guys up, body for body.

You play tight coverage. And then the guy buys extra time. Or he throws a ball perfectly into the bucket, you know, or he checks it down on third and six and you get those yak and that yak opportunity to go convert. And there's just nothing you can do, right? It's like watching LeBron at his peak, like watching Jordan at his peak, you know, watching like Miguel Cabrera, force walks, even as he gets older, teams start pitching him different.

you see just like that all-time level of production on the field, you know, within the context of the offense on a play-by-play basis. It's a real fun watch. Derek, as you dig into the charting, you know, obviously we know what he is, we know what we think he is, but when you chart a guy with that level of granularity, I'm sure you stumble across some stuff that's surprising or illuminating in ways you might not have anticipated.

What jumped out to you when you really started to dig deeper into it with Mahomes last year? Well, so what's interesting is he's one of the only two charting quarterbacks I've been able to chart their 2023 already. Like I just started the project, but obviously I charted everybody last year. Last year, Mahomes' profile was like, okay, and we have to keep in mind, this was the first year where it was like, okay,

Tyreek is gone. They're going to do a lot more underneath. It's a little bit more of a timing offense. His numbers in the one to 10 yard area in 2022 were not very good. They were like, at league average maybe below. Like this was clearly something he was trying to figure out how he wanted to do.

The offense was trying to figure out how he wanted to do. I've already charted him now in 2023. His 1 to 10 numbers which is like that timing quick game area flawless. Like truly in a different tier from everybody else. Which speaks to the fact that like it's crazy that the guy who is already

maybe the best quarterback of a generation is only getting very obviously better in another area of his game. And that goes to to Deontes point. It's like, okay, you can't blitz him. Okay, you can't play man. You can't do this and you can't do that. It's like, well now he can just nickel and dime you if he wants to. And then he still obviously has four plays a game where he's Superman and there's nothing you can do. And this year really felt

like even with all the frustration with the other parts of the offense, it felt like him as a player found the way to perfectly tow the line between knowing when to do the easy stuff, knowing how to do it and then, and then, and then, it just truly something different to watch. Watching the mental stuff this year, to me, it was what was most jarring. And I remember talking to coaches about it leading up into the Super Bowl. I think I was talking to their passing game coordinator, and we were just discussing different identifications he had of pressures, and he missed one against Baltimore. Kyle Hamilton kind of came untouched off the edge. And he said, yeah, that was the first one he missed in like eight weeks. And the comparison he made was like when you watch a chess master,

and you watch somebody who just, it's like a chess playing computer, where they know the correct sequence of events every single time. And in order to beat the computer, you almost have to do things that are completely unrelated to how you would normally play chess. That's what he has reached mentally as a quarterback. And when you combine that with what he does on scrambles on third down, the physical talent, every other aspect to his game, he's just in a completely different tier. We talked about this when he won the MVP two years ago, and I think it's unassailable at this point that he exists on his own.

It doesn't matter what you pay him. It's going to be a bargain. He's completely separate from the rest of the players in the NFL and the rest of the quarterbacks in the NFL. So that one's easy. Congratulations, Diete. You get the easiest one. Mine is second, and honestly, this one's pretty easy for me.

Because I think even if he wasn't the MVP last year, even if people are going to hem and haul about some of the turnover stuff, watching what he did last year to me was kind of a solidification and an announcement that Josh Allen is just, in my opinion, definitively the second-back in the league. And so I'm taking him second here. If you just look at everything he does for that offense, and my thing is I just think that the negative plays are overblown.

And what he does from a negative play perspective is just so overblown to me. People talk about the turnovers. If you look at interceptions and sacks, okay, so negative plays bucketed for quarterbacks, he lost 90 total EPA on interceptions and sacks. The only three full-time starters last year had a smaller number on those plays, were Gino Smith, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. That was it. So even if you take into account how many turnovers he has,

he still had fewer negative total plays than all but three quarterbacks in the NFL. And that's before you even take into account the positive plays. The guy counted for 44 touchdowns last year. He's one of the most outrageous talents in professional football. So what he does as the centerpiece of an offense, you can build anything around him, to me right now, pretty definitively, I think he has established himself as the second best quarterback in the league. I would love to touch on the turnovers thing really quickly.

I think you're absolutely spot on. It's like a perception problem where he doesn't have that many negative plays. Like you said, what was it, fourth lowest lost in the league, basically? Totally PA lost on interceptions in sacks. It was the fourth lowest among full-time starters. Right. And so this is something I actually talked about with Drake May during the whole draft season was like, these two guys don't have that many bad plays,

but when they do, it's just the dumbest thing you've ever seen. And sometimes it's late in games where they're trying to go win the football game. But here's the thing. I'd rather have the guy who tries to go win the football game than have Derek Carr, where I know he's not going to go win me the football game. So I'm totally okay with all of the turnover stuff that Josh Allen has. Because not to the same degree as Mahomes, but Allen has also gotten better at basically everything,

every single year that he's played the game. He is a much better intermediate thrower than he used to be. He's a much better quick game thrower than he used to be. He used to have a lot of more turnover worthy plays, but he doesn't anymore. Like he's just better and smarter. So, yeah, I'm Allen it too. No contest for me. Like, no arguments.

I love the way you guys frame that right, because with Allen specifically, there's so much of a reputation issue that he's dealing with. I think that Dak Prescott obviously is kind of hurt by this as well, where I think that people kind of freeze in their mind, whatever the moment is that they attach to that quarterback shortcomings, and then that becomes a narrative on the guy. And when I look at Allen this past year, going back to Mahomes,

it's almost like he's one year behind the development arc, right? If you look at Allen this year, this looks a lot like what Mahomes was like last year, right? Where it's like you've got identity problems on first and second down, you have a few negative plays that maybe puts you in a rough spot, but then you look at him on third down, and it's like, if you're judging on the scale of degree of difficulty and what Alan can do to bail you out of bad situations,

he's only behind Mahomes, in my opinion, when it comes to working as a drop-back passer and being able to solve problems, right? That's why to me, Robert, I think that you're most justified in putting it at number two, especially when you're looking at over the span of the next three seasons. I don't know how you can make an argument against it unless you were just going to harp on the fact that,

hey, there are some untimely interceptions. are some untimely sacks, you know, maybe late in games, maybe on conversion downs. But what he's asked to do to get that offense out of trouble, it really is like, in some ways, it's almost like watching Cam Newton again just with like a more naturally talented passer of the football wall. When you look at supporting cast and some of the shortcomings of the guys around them and then what they're putting on his soldiers as a runner and as a dropback passer. And just what he can do as a scrambler too, the problem solving, like you mentioned, it's very

similar to Mahomes. He had 27 first downs or touchdowns on scrambles last year, which was tied for the NFL lead. And that's before you even consider what he's doing with his arm. And the sack mitigation to me is huge. He doesn't take sacks. He has the lowest pressure to sack rate in the NFL last season. When he takes sacks, it's because he's consciously extending place. And you're going to live with all of the negative stuff because of the high-end moments that come along with it. So this one was a pretty easy one for me. I thought there was a definitive top two. And then I think we can get into maybe some of the complications that come after that, Derek, maybe you're in a slightly unenviable position. You're picking at three here. Who are you going with a three?

Yeah, last year was easy. I didn't have to think about it. Of, and then even my second pick to me wasn't that hard. So this, I think if we were doing five years, this would be a little bit trickier for me. But because it's only three years, I'm pretty comfortable still going Lamar Jackson, who I took it for last year, I think. I mean, Lamar. That was a, that was a mic drop moment for you last year. Take a Lamar at four. last year and planting your flag on that. That looked real good in retrospect all throughout the season.

You deserve a lot of credit for that. I mean, Lamar's been my guy like for basically since Louisville. So I was very willing to ride or die with him. And I'm willing to do it again. Like I think Lamar, Lamar is fun to talk about because I think purely as a passer,

he probably isn't in this category. Like purely just in terms of arm talent accuracy, he's probably closer to like quarterback 11 or something like that, which is not bad, obviously. that's still, you're getting more value out of it than you're losing. But it's everything else that makes Lamar and it's everything else about why he's such a unique player.

Like, his pocket management to me is unbelievable. Like, obviously Mahomes is kind of like one of one. But in terms of being able to navigate very small crevices within the pocket, throw from places that seem like you should not ever be able to get a throw off of, it's the stuff that people just wanted to go take Caleb at one for. It's the stuff that makes Mahomes who he is. And Lamar is probably more like 90% of that, but that's as close as anyone is going to get to Mahomes. And I think that that's like, it just unlocked so many throws for Lamar that other quarterbacks just don't get access to.

And that to me is really valuable. It's why he's so tough to defend. And then even outside of the pocket, he also has access to throws that other quarterbacks don't get, except for maybe the two that we just mentioned. And that's really about it. Like, Robert, I remember you at some point during the season or maybe it was at the very end of the season like the Niners game. There were multiple plays in that game where he scoots outside the pocket just a little bit and the linebacker's like, oh, Christ, he's going to run. I have to go get him. Opened up an easy checkdown to Gus Edwards or whoever. That goes for 40 yards. How many other

quarterbacks consistently get that kind of play outside of Lamar and the two other guys who just drafted? So between all that stuff, I just think Lamar is like, even if, like I said, as a pure thrower, he's probably closer to like quarterback 10, everything that he gives you mentally, everything that he gives you in terms of having to defend him as a runner, as a scrambler, and then everything that he can do within the pocket in terms of finding space and finding throws that just don't seem conceivable for the other quarterbacks, I'm perfectly fine taking him here. The point you made, Derek, that I love, and this has always been kind of what I've had

to pound the table about with Samar, is the fact that what he can do with his legs does change the way that you defend him and what's accessible for him as a passer. that's always been my that's always in my arguing point with Lamar is like he is one of he's he's a quarterback that you cannot make rankings or tears about just based off the outcomes right because you are going to miss some of the things that he can do in terms of sack avoidance right you think about guys that are his build or his play style not all of them have the strength to be able to throw through contact the way that he does the ability to slip past pass rushers that he does and stay alive as a passer right Like you said, all it takes is one stride outside of the tackle box. And now it's a new football game. You know, he hasn't declared intentions at all. But the way that you have to think about him once he breaks the contain of a pocket changes, how you have to pass rush him changes.

And that gives you a unique access to different things offensively, that not any guy that's outside of like that Mahomes and Allen tier, you can really make an argument for, right? So that's some other things that I like about him. And then what he's able to do on third down because of the fact, that if you play them the wrong way, it can be 13 yards on a scramble, right? If you try to play one-on-one on the outside, he does have enough touch to go attack, you know, and give guys catchable opportunities. I think that for him, the debate is really just like, what does a three-year arc look

like, right? That's where I think that you can maybe have a debate of, are you more comfortable going with maybe a Herbert or, you know, maybe a Lawrence? That's who it was going to be, by the way. And that's, and I think that's a fair fight to make, right? That's a fair argument to have. But I think if you look at just what he does, what he can be at his peak and what we saw last year with an offense that I think is probably still not fully fleshed out identity-wise. I think that you should feel pretty good about if he's able to stay healthy throughout the year the way that he did last year, there are things that he can do that make them a threat to make a deep playoff run and be explosive on offense that only the two guys ahead of them can boast.

My favorite thing about watching him last year is that obviously what he's done as a runner his entire career is one of the best running quarterbacks of all time and the rushing production and what his presence does for the rest of your run game, I think is an underrated part of what drives his value. But a lot of these other guys who are scrambleers or runners, they're explosive and straight lines. Justin Fields, Jalen Hertz, Lamar's athleticism manifests in subtle ways. And that's my favorite part about watching him. It manifests in the subtle ways you see with quarterbacks. It's pocket movement. It's arm angle changing. It's the way the ball explodes out of his hands. He's a creative explosive player in a way that some of these other guys are more

just straight-line explosive players. And watching him show off that area of his game last year, it was so rewarding as somebody who's always believed in what type of player he could be. I've made this comparison a million times. To me, stylistically, he reminds me of Stafford more than any other NFL passer, like the way the ball comes out of his hand and the way that he can be creative within that space. And watching him get to show that off last year was incredible. The only thing that gives me pause about him and is why I probably wouldn't have taken him here and maybe even for a couple more spots where we talk about what Mahomes and Alan can do no matter what you're doing to them defensively. They have so many different answers

to so many different problems. I think this idea that Lamar can't get it done in the playoffs is probably overblown. It's a very small sample size and he's played on very different types of teams and offenses when they've run into roadblocks in the playoffs. But if you look at what teams can do to him by heating him up and what they've been able to do over the last few years. My concern with him is when you get into the postseason and there's a level of specificity that you can build into game plans, can you limit him in a way that you can't limit some of the other guys at the top of this list? That's the only thing that when I'm thinking about Lamar specifically just kind of sticks

in the back of my mind. I honestly think that that's partly fair. I still always think, though, at this receiving core, like in terms of winning one-on-ones, I think really never in his career has been that good. And even last year when they were better, obviously, Odell was really truthfully more of like a right place, right time

receiver. Like he wasn't explosive and like, you know, winning one-on-ones, I think the way that people thought. He was non-existent by the end of the year. He wasn't a part of the game plan or the lineup by the time the season ended. And Mark Andrews didn't play in the playoffs. So that is a fair response. Exactly. And the other thing

is the list, listen, I know everybody loves Day Flowers. He is a great player. When I charted Lamar Jackson, I swear no other receiver messed up even half as many times as safe flowers. Just like wrong spot, drifting where he shouldn't be, doesn't know how to attack the ball. And I still think he's going to be a very good player. But I do think that is like part of the calculus, is that there were certain times where it's like rookie mistake was just kind of submarining the offense a little bit, especially towards the end of the year when he had to carry more of the burden. Like you said, when Odell's not playing, Mark Andrews isn't playing.

And I do want to say, I do like Deontes point as well. this was the first year in like a new type of offense for Lamar. I kind of think this was almost like we said last year with Mahomes, where it was kind of like a learning curve type of thing, like how do we want to do this? I'm hoping with one more year of understanding how all this stuff is supposed to work, that it'll look even better. So I still, like I said, I still have a lot of faith in Lamar.

He's always going to be my guy. It's more of a, not that we won't see it, but we haven't seen it yet. And I think just like last year where we hadn't seen him in this type of offense and I think we were willing to give him the benefit of doubt on that show last year, Derek. I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But that's my only lingering concern and lingering doubt is that we have not seen him answer those questions in this version of an offense yet. Not that he can't do it because I actually do have a lot of faith that he can. All right, Dei, you're back to you, back to you, my friend, at the top here.

Who are you going with with the fourth pick? So I hinted at on the point I was making about Lamar, so my next pick is Justin Herbert, right? Like, this to me, I think the top three guys are probably, you know, side of the first. scene, you can blind item, pick a name out of the hat and be like, okay, any one of these three guys can be MVP in a given year. I think now it's now is I think where the debate comes in like, how deep a playoff run do you think this guy can make if the situation's ideal. You know, how much do they lift the, you know, how much are they a tide that lifts all boats between like Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, Stroud, that kind of cluster of guys. And to me,

I still think when you look at Herbert's arm talent, when you look at what he can do with the football, it's still, he's still a computer. it is still very much like T-1000, every ball is going to go exactly where it's supposed to be. Sometimes too is detriment, right? And I know that that's conversation that Robert and Nate had, you know, in the past generation of the podcast, right, is at what point, and this is for Lawrence as well, right?

Like, at what point do you have to break from that and be a little bit more of a creator, push the ball more downfield? And obviously he's not helped a bunch by the supporting Cassidy's had over the last couple of years. But that's really, I think, the thing that divides a line, between him and the top three guys, is that with those three guys, we have seen, you've been able to put your team on your back

and go deliver the ball, snap in, snap out, go create offense in high degree of difficulty situations, in those high leverage situations, time after time. We just haven't had enough opportunities to really build out that sample size for Herbert. But at the end of the day, if I turn on the tape, there are things that he can do throw in the football that just nobody else on earth outside of like Mahomes and Allen can do.

There's so many frustrations when you go back and watch last year's Chargers. I mean, beyond the receiving talent. I just didn't understand the protection plan half the time. You have guys along the offensive line that are all the worst versions of themselves, and some of those guys weren't very good to begin with, which is concerning. And then you look at the support system and the guys who were around him, he played a hundred, he had 101 dropbacks last year with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field together.

And those 101 dropbacks, he averaged 0.26 EPA per dropback, which would have been the highest mark in the league over the course of the entire season. And that also aligned those three games, that was over three games with when Corey Wensley was in the lineup. So those three guys almost never played together outside of those three games. So you just see them out there and it's so frustrating. Everything about watching that team over the last couple of years has been so frustrating. I went back and watched the Patriots game today.

And their run plays where they're asking Gerald Ever to make a block at the point of attack. They're asking Jalen Gaiton to dig out a safety and a guy gets dropped for a two-yard loss. And I'm like, what do we expect to happen? What do we think was going to happen here? And so many people are probably screaming at their phones right now. Like you're just constantly making excuses for this guy. But then you watch the nuts and bolts of what has consistently been around him. And it's hard not to.

So even next year when we don't have Keenan Allen there, we don't have Mike Williams there. And in theory, the offense should be getting worse. I almost have more faith in what this new coaching staff is going to be able to do just from a soundness perspective all the way across the board that I'm curious, even if the personnel is the worst that it's ever been, if we see a better version of Justin Herbert than we've seen, essentially since his rookie year. I think that's kind of on the table for next year. I think that's what we're going to get. I mean, kind of like you said,

the receiving core might not be good enough to get there, but I think over the course of like a three-year exercise like this, when this core gets like a couple more years to figure things out, I think Herbert, we're going to see the best version of him and we're going to see something closer to what, you know, Matthew Stafford has been at his peak, like when he was at his absolute best with the Rams and stuff. like Herbert will probably never be that level of unabashed aggressive the way that Stappard can be.

You know, Herbert has a little bit more of the, you know, he's a little bit more conservative, a little bit more calculated. But I do think he understands one and how to be aggressive. It's just I think especially over this last year, it got to the point where he was like, I don't trust anybody. So the only thing I'm going to do is try to get to second and seven and try to make this next play as easy as possible, as opposed to just taking like two coin flips in a row and being like, well, shoot, I'm third and 10. I think that's just not how his brain

operates, whereas, like, Josh Allen is very much willing to flip the coin on first and second down and be in third and 12. He doesn't get a shit. Yeah, he's like, figure it out. Whereas I think Herbert doesn't want to do that. Even though he has the capacity to make those plays, that's just not how he wants to operate. But I do think if I was picking you before, this would have been easy for me as well because he kind of like Deontes said, he's the only guy, I think,

at this range where he has the tools and ability that are as close to Mahomes and Allen as you're going to get, but also we've like seen him he's proven to be a very good play already it's like you know theoretically we could say Anthony Richardson is that caliber of player right like that caliber of tools we just haven't seen it Herbert we've seen him play at like an all pro level

so yeah he would if I had my pick here it would have been him one of my favorite parts about watching him is that it's not just the big arm throw far like skill set that we're talking about he is so much twitcher than he has any right to be for a man that big the way that he can flip his hips and Shane and like he'll be be looking left, he'll flip his hips, throw the ball back to the other direction.

It's incredible his ability to do that at his size. And then you think about what he does as a scrambler. He is one of the most effective scramblers in the league, despite being 6-5-2-30, whatever he is. So I totally agree with you. It's like a slightly diminished version of what those skill sets are from those other guys, combined with the fact that he also doesn't have many negative plays. Negative play mitigation plus that skill set on the upside. That's what you're talking yourself into with Herbert.

It's always been the case. And I don't think it's any different despite some of the dips we saw again last year. And this is the thing that makes me most excited about the next three years, right? Assuming that everything the hard ball wants to lay out works out, I love what that offensive infrastructure can do for a guy like Herbert, right? Trying to adjust protection plans to make sure that he's not hot. So that way you can liberate him to push the ball downfield more, more play action game that might allow him to access the middle of the field

in that 12 to 15 yard range, which is where I think he can be as legal as anybody in the NFL if you give him more opportunity to attack there with anticipation, right? And then there's, you know, more deep shots down the field if they have the receiving core or the receiving core that they're trying to build, develops itself to be able to separate deep down the field and you can start putting things together schematically. Like, I love what it could be if the infrastructure is built out the way that I think Jim Harvall would like to build his NFL team around Herbert. If Ladd-McConkie is even like a B-plus, I feel like I'm going to be buying more

into this team that I probably should be because of Harbaugh and because of Herbert. And that's a bad place on which, where to, it's a bad place to start with with me and this team going forward. I'm picking at five here. This was easier than I thought it was going to be. I thought that I was going to have to talk myself into this and that it was going to sound like a crazy conclusion to reach based on what we've seen from this guy and the limited amount that we've seen this guy.

I'm picking CJ Stroud. Okay. I figured that's where this is going. Okay, I'm looking at it. C.J. Stroud's contract over the next three years, $8 million, $10 million, $11.5 million. Let's just compare that to even a guy whose contract isn't astronomical.

Let's talk about Justin Herbert. Herbert is $19 million this year, $37 million next year, $46 million in year three. So against the cap, I'm saving $35 million in year three of this exercise with C.J. Stroud versus Justin Herbert. That's just one point that is in my favor. The other point is that,

I think C.J. Strauch is kind of a savant. Going back and watching him last year, some of the things that we saw, whether it's the accuracy, his pocket movement and feel in a way that we didn't necessarily see all the time at Ohio State because we didn't need to. And then the third element of this that I just keep coming back to when I watch him, his ability to get throws off without having to move in the pocket as things are crumbling around him is remarkable. I just never could have anticipated that would have. have been such a defined part of his game that early on. That throw he hit it to Nico Collins in the playoffs against the Browns, where he doesn't have to step into it and he throws the ball across his body, 35 yards down the field. That level of exceptional physical quarterbacking, I didn't expect to get that from him. And I especially didn't expect to get that from him as a rookie. So you combine all of that and the advantage of being on that deal. There just aren't that many guys I would bet on over the next three, five, seven years.

years before I would bet on this guy. And it's really just the four guys we already talked about. I think what's remarkable to me about C.J. Stroud is how connected and smooth every single movement he has. Like whether it's his footwork in the pocket going through his reeds, whether it's like, like you said, maybe a guard gets pushed into his lap. Some guys like when a guard gets pushed into their lap, they've got to like, okay, I've got to take two shuffle steps back, then I've got to reset my body, then I've got to

make the throw. Okay, well, by that time, whatever you were trying to do is probably closed. C.J. Stroud is very just like, if he gets guard pushing to his lap, he'll just like push off a one toe and just like flick it over. And it's like, how do you have the, how can you think that fast and make your body do things that fast in such a seamless, like, it really doesn't seem like he's thinking about the game in a good way. Like things just happen and he knows where the ball is supposed to be for him to be that. That's why savant. He is a savant in this way. And that's just, it's an ineffable thing when you watch him, but it's impossible to ignore. Exactly. And like, I think. you even mention this actually when CJ was just like maybe a month and a half into the league. Burrow

very much has his quality to him where like things just kind of happen and the ball just gets out of his hand and all of a sudden it's into his playmaker and you're like it doesn't really make sense how all of that happened so quickly, but he's just able to do it so consistently. It's funny because I think that we've had

a circuitous conversation about accuracy among NFL quarterbacks because guys coming out who aren't accurate, we've underrated how easy it is to fix that. Anthony Richardson, Drake May, some of these accuracy issues. And I think because of that, we've almost underrated how important accuracy is

as a trait when you do have it. When you have it at an exceptional level like Stroud and Joe Burrow do, we see what sort of practical advantages that gives your offense. And I think that's, maybe I'm just, I'm grafting that onto other people, but that's been my journey with it. It's like, oh, accuracy is overrated. And then you watch a guy who's extremely accurate, and it's like, oh, man, it's actually pretty useful to be that accurate.

And that was my experience with Stroud as a rookie and also a lot of the time with Burrough. And to me, I think that the bigger piece of that is it's easy. It's easy, I think, when you zoom out and look at the league as a whole and start thinking about the context of quarterback play as a whole to say that accuracy is overrated. Because a lot of times that kind of strips, that strips away the analysis of all the things that an offense can do schematically to take things off the hands out of the hands of the quarterback, right? And then there are these things. And you brought up Burrow in this respect, Derek, and I think about younger Brady in this aspect as well. When I think about Stroud in terms of like,

you're just not supposed to have that kind of feel that young. You're not supposed to understand pockets that well at that age. You're not supposed to anticipate that well in the pure dropback game at that age. To understand how to use touch, how to access different throws, knowing when to switch things on and off in a progression, right? Like there are shortcuts that he's able to get to in the passing game. game that you're just not supposed to have until your second or third contract as a quarterback. And there are just times where I'm watching.

And it's not just play action, back foot in the ground. Okay, I'm just going to rip this ball here. I'm just going to check it down here because all I'm doing is looking at the leverage of one or two guys. This is genuinely working through a progression knowing, okay, if I slide this way, I can still get to this throw that's going away from my leverage. I've just got to place it in this way. Or I've got to put it here away from the leverage of this guy. you know, understanding coverage, you're not supposed to have that good of feel

as a rookie, right? The things that should trip you up. He was cheating how to play against certain coverages. I swear, I vividly remember there's a cover two example. I probably said this on a podcast before. What is rule 101 about cover two? You don't want to throw into the flat defender. However, C.J. Stroud knew that if he could throw it on the back shoulder

of his guy running into the flat, his guy would be able to shield the ball away from the flat defender, and they still convert and he does it anyway. What's a conversion now? Yeah, what 21 year old has the confidence to make a throw like that? The timing, the accuracy, it just,

that guy doesn't exist outside of C.J. and Manning shit. That's old Brady, Manning, Drew Breeze, Philip Rivers type stuff, right? And those are guys that it's like, into their 30s, you're starting to see,

okay, even if you play the right call against the concept that they have, they know how to place the ball to get the five or six yards that they need. So that, and then you start talking about what Robert mentioned at the top, which is, A, he's on a rookie deal. So you have a guy that is already, if we're looking at this as a starting point, whether or not development is linear,

if he does nothing but stagnate at this point throughout the rest of his rookie deal, you still feel really good about what he is as a quarterback throughout his rookie deal. And if there is any other, you know, step up to take, he can very quickly transition past where Lawrence is at, where Herbert is at, where Burrow is at, which are guys that you think you can win playoff games with, but might not be in the immediate year in and year out can win an MVP, can win MVP, maybe contend for a Super Bowl type of conversation.

What Stroud is right now, if I'm to assume that he's got another jump to make, that puts you in that top three, top four conversation as sight unseen. As long as a guy is healthy and you keep him upright, you're probably going to win more often than you lose. I think right now he's probably a top eight quarterback in the league. The product he's putting on the field is a top eight quarterback in the league.

So you combine that with a, financial benefits and that theoretical step that he might be able to take. And that's why this is easy for me. And Derek, you're talking about all the mental stuff that's so refined and so advanced for his age. You combine that with, again, a physical skill set that's a little bit surprising to me. He can do more things in an exceptional way with the football than I expected him to be able to do coming out of Ohio State. And I knew the accuracy. But again, some of that stuff he can do within the pocket, arm angles, movement. He's just a more gifted thrower. at a high end level than I expected him to be.

So you combine all of that stuff together, and we really are cooking with gas. It has been very fun to watch. On the other side, if I'm playing devil's advocate, the game was made very simple for him last year in the sense of what the structure of defenses were that they were playing against.

41.7% of his dropbacks were against cover three last season. It was the highest rate in the NFL, which makes sense, right? Heavy personnel, running the ball a lot on early downs. So that's the only thing. The game was made somewhat simple for him by virtue of what type of offense he plays in, but that's just nitpicking to me. I almost just have to mention that as one counter argument, but I don't really believe it.

Right. Well, my counter to the counter would have been like, okay, so that's been basically the case with all these Shanahan quarterbacks at a certain point. But none of them looked this good this young. No. So at that point, it's like, at that point, he'll probably be fine then. Like, I don't really care. That was going to be my final point.

land on it. That was my final point is like, if he threw 13 picks, I would still feel really good about him. The guy had like a 1% interception rate as a rookie. Like of the guys who played a bunch of snaps, he has one of the lowest interception rates in the league. He avoids negative plays in a way that again lends back to the point of a rookie quarterback is not supposed to be this risk, this mistake averse. You're supposed to get a bad sack strip game. You're supposed to get your 3-4 interception game when a guy is trying to throw with the anticipation and is maybe getting looks that he hasn't really seen or not dealing with throwing the landmarks, you know, at the NFL level, you know, trying to transition into that. And he hasn't had any trouble with any of that.

And I think to the point, you know, again, to counter the counter, we've seen enough throughout Ohio State, you know, throughout Ohio State film. I think we saw just enough to project that even if they put more on his, on his plate in terms of pure dropback game, he can probably handle more of it than we saw last year. And based on what we're working with, I think that there's a chance that he can be really explosive, pushing the ball downfield

and punishing defenses for playing certain ways based on the kind of throws that I saw him make within the structure of the offense that he already has. Yeah, there's plenty to believe that there is another level there

even if he has to move beyond the box that they've put him in schematically. And that's just the box that all these guys play in, in the Shanahan world. So it's not a detriment to him. And you talk about the lack of negative plays, Deontae,

checkdown guy. He had led the league in the percentage of his throws that went past the sticks last year. He was number one in the NFL. So to be relatively mistake-free while playing with that level of aggression as a first-year player is absolutely wild. I think the guy has a chance to be truly special. And that's why I feel okay taking him there at five. Derek, you're up here. Who you got at six? Okay. This is the first range of the draft where it starts to get very weird. and you're weighing like completely different factors, especially when you're like considering the money, the three year. Like I could literally go four different quarterbacks here and I think I would feel okay about it.

I'm going to default to Dak Prescott. And I know that he's making a lot of money. But he's only 30. It's like he's been around for a while and I think we think of him as this like establishment thing at this point. But he's only 30. So he's kind of still within this three year window, very much within that quarterback crime. This was the range that like Matt Ryan was winning MVP's

so like this to me, I'm not that worried about the age stuff with him. I'm still... When I cue that up today and I was looking, I was like, oh, he's 33, right? That's what I thought. So it's 33, age 34, age 35 seasons. And then I looked it up. I was like, oh, wait, guess not. Age 31, 32, 33.

A little bit of a different proposition that I expected. That was kind of what pushed me back to him. Because I think if he would have been like 33 like I was imagining in my head, I would have gone a different direction. I would have gone a younger player. But him only being 30, you're still going to get a lot of the best years that he has. And truthfully, I think even last year,

we saw him look healthier than he had been the year before. And you saw more of the outside of the pocket stuff. You saw him look even within the pocket, more explosive, able to access throws than maybe a year ago he wasn't able to access. So that's kind of why I'm comfortable going with him here. But that to me is just, there's always going to be something about the way that he plays

that I just absolutely appreciate. It's very much in the, he wants to be Peyton Manning. And nobody's going to be Peyton Manning. It's impossible to be what Peyton Manning was, but just in terms of the way that he wants to play the game, hanging in tight pockets, trying to be perfect going one to two to three or four,

ripping backside digs into windows that make no sense, trying to throw seam balls that you probably have no business throwing and are going to get your tight end killed. But what if you hit it? Like, that's just kind of how he plays. It's like, what if I was, perfect. And there's something about it that I just respect. And I think it's almost to, you know, a point that Deonté made earlier where like there are certain quarterbacks where because throws are

taken off the table, they can look maybe in some ways better than they are. With DAC, the way that they've run this offense over the past few years, everything is on the table all of the time. And I think people sometimes like misunderstand how difficult that makes it to play the quarterback's position. And that even applies to pre-snap. Like everything that he does. in terms of setting protections for them, like getting in and out of certain plays, doing it at this point, like three or four different offenses

over the course of the however many years. A key to me is just, if you wrote a textbook about how to play the quarterback position without having the Superman tools that Patrick Mahomes has, it's what Dak Prescott does. I mean, you said it, man. It will be copy-paste for me.

Like, when you watch, again, it's all about degree of difficulty for me. That's always going to be the dividing line. once you take away the guys who are just like transcendent talent. And for me, like watching him, Peyton Manning is the name that I think about most often. When it comes to pre-snap, understanding what defenses are trying to throw at you,

being able to adjust on the fly if you get a change and look. And then that willingness to still take a chance on certain throws, right? Like not only schematically are certain throws going to be taken off the table, just in terms of coaching in detail and approaches to certain styles, offensively, there are a lot of quarterbacks in the league that just would never attempt to make the types of throws that DAC would. Even if you pasted Dallas's offense over to a Tampa Bay, I would never expect a Baker Mayfield to try to make a throw that Dak Prescott would.

I wouldn't expect Justin Herbert, honestly, who is, you know, probably more talented naturally than Dak Prescott to take chances. Right. To take chances on the types of throws that DAC is willing to. And again, and I think that that's where, you know, when I think of him and I think of Josh Allen, guys who I think the narrative on the worst of their plays becomes overrepresented in how we evaluate them as passers, you have to really be honed into what they are asking DAC to do on a snap by snap basis. Because if you go and watch Jalen Hertz or Brock Purdy or Tua or, you know, quarterback whatever from that style of offense, that approach to quarterbacking. you watch DAC, you are going to miss what the nuances are that separate the two of him from the rest of that tier of guys as passers, unless you have a clear understanding of what they're

asking him to do and execute on a snap basis. It's not like there's a death machine down there in Dallas in terms of how their offense has been built over the last couple years. We've got Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer in charge of that thing, and he's thrown a CD-Lam and 31-year-old Brandon Cooks. You know, it's fine. But for the most part, he has not been given a super team to work with. And last year they were one of the best offenses in the league for most of the year. And Derek, I think your point about some of the things we saw from him physically last year,

that was what bumped him up for me in this exercise in a way that he might not have been last year. Last season, the only quarterback who generated more EPA outside of the pocket than Dak Prescott was Josh Allen. Good company. That's it. And that's not really how we conceive of Dak Prescott, or at least how we've conceived to him over the last few years.

I'm like he can't be mobile anymore since he had the ankle injured. That's right, because he couldn't. I mean, with the lower leg stuff, it felt like he was confined to the pocket. And that's not the player he was last year. And that's what was so encouraging to me. All of that being said, okay, he's got a $55 million cap hit this year. And then he's about to hit free agency. And we know what DAC free agency looks like.

There are going to be no discounts to be had. It's going to be a short-term deal, and they're going to get every dollar that they can. So, Derek, you would rather have DAC, Prescott at, let's say, on average, $47 million over the next three years for age 31, 32, or 33, then Joe Burrow. If I can tip my hand a little bit here, my other pick would not have been Joe Burrow, so yes. Why would you? Because I think a lot of people would put Burrow in this spot. Or would put Burrow essentially right in the post-Justin-Hurbert, post-CJ-Straud tier of quarterbacks. What pushes him a little bit further down to you?

So for me, I want to be clear. I still think Joe Burrow is a very good player. If for whatever, if by some miracle he's there at my next pick, he would probably be my pick. But Joe Burrow is great. However, I'm very much a quarterback, kind of like Deonté was saying, like, Degrade of difficulty to me is very important. And the ability to have everything in an offense be accessible is very important to me. With Joe Burrow, for as good as he is, I just don't think that that's how he operates.

like he doesn't throw the middle of the field that consistently or like that often. He's not nearly as aggressive as as back is willing to be or as really a lot of the other top quarterbacks in the league or will be like Mahomes will make some insane throws over the middle and he's willing to do it. Josh Allen obviously Lamar is really, really good at this. Whereas like Joe Burrow, I think truthfully because of the arm strength, like his arm is closer to like fine than anything. And then it's made better by the fact that his touch is just like the best in the league

probably outside of Patrick Mahomes. But I still think that there are certain throws that he just doesn't get access to because he can't generate that kind of velocity, like getting to digs late in the down. Some of those seam routes, I think, are really difficult for him to get the velocity and the arc that you need on them

to make them accurate, I think. And so for me, I just, it was, you kind of have to frame it in the sense of like, if I'm taking these guys away from their team and then just, like, rebuilding a team from scratch, I would rather have to, Prescott.

Right. I would rather have Dak because I know everything's on the table. Now you can look at it and go and look at Cincinnati and like, well, they have two stars on the outside that can kind of make up for his issues throwing over the middle. So it doesn't matter, which is why I think part of why he's looked in some ways better than Dak Prescott. But again, to me, having access to every single thing in the playbook and every single part of the field, that's really important to me.

And to me, Dak gives me that over Joe Burrow. I will say Joe Burrow obviously is a more creative player than I think. deck is. And like we saw almost the inverse of these two where like 2022, Dak wasn't healthy and couldn't do that stuff. 2023, Burrow wasn't healthy and couldn't do as much of that stuff. But I do think all things being even, Burrow does have a little bit more of that than that does for sure. But that health thing, I think, is something that's worth bringing up. Because some of these other guys, we've seen them sustain through minor injuries. They've been a diminished version

of themselves, but their offense has at least been able to function. The Bengals could not function last year when Burrow was at less than 100%. And, And this is the second time he's had a season-ending injury. So his inability to work through injury in a way that some of these other guys can, I don't think you should dismiss that. I think that should be part of the calculus as you're going through an exercise like this. And quickly to that point, I think that goes back to his arm strength. Like, Joe, it's physical talent.

Right. Like, when Joe Burrow loses 10% of what he's got, it's just too hard to play the position. Whereas, like, if Josh Allen loses 10% of what he's got, He's still better than all the six guys in the league. So it doesn't really matter. And he's, Mahomes won the fucking Super Bowl. Exactly.

Like, that's the point, whereas, like, Burrow just, I just don't think he quite has that. And like you said, it seems like it's every year.

There's something with him, whether it is only for a few weeks or season ending injury. So that was kind of part of my calculus, too, where like, it's kind of reminiscent of injuries, but. It's kind of reminiscent of Rothesberger in that way,

right? Or it's like the cliff for him on what he's able to do creatively, what he's able to do as a passer is so tied to what he has available physically to make up for the lack of raw arm talent. It's probably more stark for him as a top-tier quarterback than for anybody else that we've named up to this point, I would say. He is probably the one guy that in terms of just physical ability needs everything to be aligned properly in order to get the most out of him.

That's something that, like you said, Derek, I just don't think he'd exist for all the other guys. We saw Justin Herbert with bad hands, a bad shoulder, bad ribs, be able to create and be effective. We've seen Lamar fight through being dinged up when he has, you know, and still be able to create as a passer, think about the game differently. Obviously, Mahomes and Allen, these are freaks of nature, right, who just can play quarterback like three or four different kinds of ways based on what they need to do, right? And I just think that Burrough is maybe just short of that. I would say that that probably is what keeps him away from not only Dak, but I think the other guy you were probably considering in this spot

and probably the guy that I'm thinking about taking it next year. You probably know me too well. That's the first somewhat curveball that's been thrown, but I think he's very much in the tier of all the guys that you would have drafted there. So it's not that surprising even if, you know, DAC at six and people are going to look at the ranking itself, be like, oh, man, DAC at six, this guy was a game and a half away from winning the MVP last year with not that great of a season.

situation down there in Dallas. So I don't mind it at all. Who are you going with at 7, Deonté? Because if it seems like you were a very good idea of me on here. And it's funny, this is the tightest cluster of quarterbacks. I think when you're trying to tear guys in the league. And unfortunately, one of us is going to have to be the guy that's going to get yelled at. And I think that it's probably going to be me here because I get yelled at every time I say

this, I'm taking Trevor Lawrence still. Still taking Trevor Lawrence over Joe Burrow. That's going to be pick number seven for me. And it's still, again, it's a degree of difficulty. It's the quality of play when things break down. It's what's accessible to him as a quarterback. And that's still, I want to make sure that I acknowledge some of the things that do frustrate me about his game. He still just has like a spray when it comes to accuracy that just confounds me.

I don't understand why it hasn't been cleaned up, right? And this is persistent since Clemson, especially like his last year at Clemson, I think, was where I really started to notice like, okay, you just miss throws that you shouldn't miss based on some of the other throws I watch you make. And it just hasn't been cleaned up. And to the same point of like, Dak, Ambrough, and these guys that maybe have one or two factors in their game that hold them just short of being in that top five consideration, it is just like the fact that you have to live with the fact that maybe four to five throws out of a game, Lawrence is just going to throw a ball that makes you cuss at your television, right? He's going to make you yell every once in a while.

But to me, I guess I'm more comfortable trading that for what he can do with finding shortcuts in a past progression, what he can do with moving around and creating outside of the pocket when he needs to. And again, when we're talking about supporting casts and protection issues and trying to create things schematically that works for him, I think that we maybe over-indexed a little bit on what the Doug Peterson offense can do for Trevor Lawrence because he just needed something much, much better than what he had with Urban Meyer. but I think you can watch and not only his own shortcomings in terms of accuracy at times,

but you watch that offense and it's like, I don't know if we really need to put everything on your shoulders on a snap to step basis to solve. I think he could probably use being rained in a little bit, but when he's on schedule, on time, anticipating throws or when he has to create and get guys out of trouble, get the offense out of trouble,

I still think that I see enough that makes me feel like he should be considered as a top eight quarterback in the lead. here's what do you think about this Derek? This would have been if I didn't take DAC this is what I was going to do so I love it here's I this this piss me off so bad we're two days removed from Nate not being on the show anymore

and we gotta do this fucking truck and back and now and I feel like I have to be the one who pushes back on it and I don't even want to be so here's okay like Deontay said it's almost like the DAC thing I just love degree of difficulty these quarterbacks who are trying to win the game I just love the way that they play, dude.

And Trevor is very much trying to win the game. Here's the problem where that comes into perception with Trevor, though. Trevor is very much someone who will try to pin a 12-yard dig route on somebody who is maybe not open, and that person is like Zay Jones or whatever. And, like, in theory, this throw is there. And he knows that he can make it and he knows if his receiver makes a play. It's a high-value play. However, he's playing on a team that does not have the players to finish this,

or they won't be in the right spots. The Bucks game specifically, I remember this. People, I remember after that Bucks game, it was like week 14 or something. People were like, he's terrible. It was later than that. It might have been later than that because it was during the holidays

and I was watching it at home and I couldn't watch it in real time. And all I saw was people responding to each successive interception that he was throwing in that game. People thought he was the worst player of all time after that game. I went back and watched it.

He made like two mistakes. And even on the interceptions, You can very obviously see, like, okay, he's trying to throw a 16-yard dig and this guy's in the wrong spot. Is it his fault for trusting that a bad player is going to be in the wrong spot? Maybe. But, like, in theory, and that's the thing, if this project is to, I'm stripping the team of who they are. And I'm just like, I'm starting with the quarterback and then I can build my team from there. I want the guy who thinks that way and who plays that way and has the arm talent to get there.

And I think Trevor very much does. Mike Deonti said, wants to. twice the game, he's probably just going to miss a throw. Once or twice a game, he, like I said, might jam a throw into a window that he doesn't really have any business trying to throw into. But I think just in general, like, all of the areas of the field that he can access, what he can do in terms of managing the pocket. I know his sack rate went up last year, but like, that offensive line was god awful.

Like, at a certain point, you can't save the offensive line. You know what I mean? Like, Trevor can make a mediocre line average. He can make average good. He can make good, great. At a certain point when it's so bad, you just can't really fix it. And I think that's where they were a little bit last year. But I think you saw in 2022, when they were just okay, he was unbelievable in the pocket

because he just needs enough. I was going to say, that's the mediocre to decent. Right. He just needs enough. That's the mediocre to workable. Exactly. And so that's like, and that to me is super valuable. Like I've said all draft season, the two things that I value most in quarterback play,

pocket presence and arm talent. He checks both boxes and he tries to win the game on every snap. Like that to me, I don't know. I just love the way that he plays. I think I'm always going to love the way that he plays. I like Trevor Lawrence. I've consistently liked Trevor Lawrence. I cannot take him seventh in this exercise.

Because there are enough limitations to it. And it's beyond the sprays. Like, okay, if you look at the turnover issues, that's, for him, it's a real issue. For Josh Allen, I think it's completely overblown. For Lawrence, I think it is a real issue. He was dead last last year in the amount of value he lost on fumbles. And it was double the league average.

any other quarterback. And then you combine that with being a little bit looser with the ball when he's throwing it around. And I think that is something to take into consideration. And it's where some of these turnovers are happening that it's also a little bit worrying. But I think part of the reason, Derek, is it's what led to the sacks. He was just in hero mode last year more than he had been in years past. And so whether that's something you can tamp down as he gets a little bit more help, I think that's one of the central questions. But his propensity to just drop the football in high leverage moments. That's one of the other things that's maddening beyond some of the sprays that you see.

And the other part of this is, I don't find him to be that creative of a player. I like him, but I find him a little bit more robotic than I want my high-end quarterbacks to be. Even if I think I would take him in the top 10 and maybe slightly after you guys would here,

there are a couple other guys I find more intriguing from a skill set perspective than I do with Lawrence. So even as a Trevor Lawrence defender, I still feel like Seven is a little bit rich in this exercise. I think that's fair, and I think that that kind of lends some credence to what I was saying in terms of like, you have to just rain this guy in. There's just, I do think that there is a part of his game where it's like he's always going to take a lot of sacks if you put him in high degree of difficulty dropbacks, dropback situations because he's going to hold the ball to pin a dig on a guy's chest or to try to throw a comeback late in the progression, you know, after trying to work through the front side of it, right? And I do think that for him, if you had him in Miami, right, where the offense is going to.

to take a lot off his shoulders and now all he has to do is be on time and know what window to throw the ball into, we will probably be talking about him differently. And I do think that that's probably the dividing line between him and Dak and why I like Dak a little bit more than Trevor is I've just seen more of Dak produce and make the right decision in high degree of difficulty situations in a way that shows like a high understanding to Derek's point of, I can actually trust that my guy is going to make the play. right it's more than just this is the right decision based on what i'm looking at it's i know the fact that i'm giving the ball to a guy who is not going to drop it or not going to pop it in the air or you know i don't

have to hold the ball away for this guy to be in the perfect position and now i'm taking a sack or a strip sack as a result right so i don't want to act like there aren't things about lawrence that like i'm uncomfortable with and in talking with nate um in particular right this is something that he and I have fought about every year is I do think there's just a part of this game a part of his game where you just got to accept the fact that it's going to be shitty sometimes he is probably he is probably the most mercurial really good quarterback in the league he's going to have a Tampa Bay game probably every year of his career where it just all goes to crap right and I think that you just got to make peace with that because the highs can be high I just don't think that you

should ask him to play on that pendulum of always trying for the most and maybe he's having to live with the fact that he's just going to blow it up, you know, on your team from time to time. Well, but Stafford was like this for until what, 2018, like that Bevel year, maybe when it really started come on for him? It's like Bevel and Caldwell, right? Yeah, and like, you started to see a change.

It took him a decade to turn into that player. And it was the same type of thing where it's like, man, this guy's obviously very good, but also kind of his own worst enemy, especially if he's in these situations where the team is below average. And he feels, it's really, this is the difference actually between Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. When you're in a below average situation, Trevor is like, I will do everything in my being to give us the best shot to win on every single play, which can obviously lead to some bad plays. Herbert will be like, I'm going to do

the lowest volatility thing possible to just try to get us over the finish line. And Herbert being more talented. Frustrating for very different reasons, but both frustrated. Exactly. But that is kind of, that's the difference between those two, I think. All right. So I'm up now at eight. I'm going to take Joe Burrow. Smart fake. This is fine with me. I didn't think he'd be here. So I had more fun selections that I was aiming for at 8.

I'm a little bit disappointed that I didn't get to take any of them. But I just, I feel comfortable doing this here, even if there are some guys who I find intriguing. He's a little bit older than you think he is, but you still get age 29, age 28, age 29, age 30 seasons. He has been paid, but it's not crazy. It's a $30 million cap at this. year, 46 and a half next year, 48 the year after that. And here's why I'm comfortable taking Joe Burrow, even if we've mostly seen him in a very

good situation in terms of supporting cast for all of his career. With some of these guys who are products of their environment or their environment does a lot of heavy lifting, the scheme props them up. The scheme doesn't prop him up in Cincinnati. He is the scheme. He is a system, yeah. The offense is an expression of who he is and what his tastes are. And what I love about what Joe Burrow has done over the last few years,

almost throw last year out. You know, it was just such a wasted season. We really only saw him for a few games. And I actually thought those few games were extremely encouraging. Like what they were doing against San Francisco, what they did against the Texans, and what the structure of that offense looked like where it seems like they were able to convince him, hey, Joe, if we use a little bit more play action and a little bit more motion, I promise it's going to be a little bit easier for you.

You quote that. It'll be okay. And watching it's going to be all right. And watching that version of it, I was like, oh, I like this. I'd like where this is going. And then it was ripped away from us just as it felt like they were getting their footing a little bit. But if you look at what's happened over the last few years, I've talked about this a lot in terms of the broad strokes. Year one, when they go to the Super Bowl, you're one of like the way we know the Bengals would chase.

It's all vertical outside the numbers pushing the ball. That was the offense. 2020 teams were like, nope, not going to let you do that anymore because why would you? We're going to make you beat us methodically. We're going to make you run the ball. We're going to make you check it down.

And Joe Burroughs said, okay, it took a while to get there. It took four or five games into the season. But when they got there, he was sixth in the NFL when EPA dropped back from week five through week 17 in 2022, when they kind of, when everything clicked together for them offensively in Cincinnati.

And it's not like this is a guy who is seeing a lot of simple coverages, who is on a run-first team. Last year, even last year, when things were a little bit weird, I think they led the league or were second in the league and the amount of cover six and cover two that they saw. What teams are throwing out against them, it's hard coverages and hard approaches to throw the ball against, and he's still fine. His ability to problem-solve and work through some of this stuff, even if he's throwing to two very good receivers, that's why I'm so encouraged about building something

around him as the first piece, because it's not like you have to wedge him into a system for him to be successful, he's been able to solve problems in all of these different areas. So as a starting point, even without Chase, even without T. Higgins, that's why I feel comfortable

about what he could be. You know, I'm glad you brought up the San Francisco game because this was one of my biggest criticisms, and this goes back to accessing every part of the playbook, one of my biggest criticisms of Burrow for a long time. He doesn't want to be under center.

He doesn't want to turn his back. He doesn't want to have to make the throws that you are required to make from under center. In those couple of games, though, where he was healthy in the middle of the season, they were kind of trying to do it. And then you even saw with Jake Browning, obviously it's not Burrow,

but the offense was trying to do more under-center stuff. So to me, this speaks to like, oh, they are trying to get Burrow to level up this part of his game and like access another level, which to me, if they can do it successfully last year,

I think I would think higher Burrow. Because again, if my whole criticism is, you know, there's a couple of things that I just don't feel like he has access to, well, if he goes and does it next year, what am I going to say?

Like, if he goes and does it, then that is what it is. And I do think that you saw, like you said, some of those flashes of the offense being able to go and do that last year. So if he's healthy and he can go do it next year, next year, that would be fantastic. Because like you said, the offense, you know,

I said a little bit that he can be limited and you have to do outside the number of stuff. But it's not because, like, it's not like Tua, where it's like this is all you're allowed to do. It's, it's like you said, it's an expression of who he is and what he's fantastic at. And it's totally fine that the offense operates this way. but if they could go out a little bit more, get under center, a little bit play action, they might be terrifying. And I do think it's trending in that direction, right?

And even just the amount of motion that they're using and just where they're lining guys up, it used to be this very static, very simple offense because it could be. And now that it can't be anymore, I do think they're going to see a slightly different version of them heading into next year because we already saw flashes of it.

And the other thing I did mention, the guy is brilliant. Like, the guy plays at such a clip mentally that some of those physical limitations that he has compared to some of these other guys that we've talked about, they matter less because of how fast he plays and because of how accurate of a quarterback he is and some

of that layering and touch that you talked about, Derek. So even if he doesn't jump off the screen in terms of physical gifts, the way that most of the other guys we've talked about so far do, I'm still willing to bet on him here because of all those subtler things about the way that he plays the position.

That's the thing that I'm most interested in over the next three years, right? Because of how well he operates mentally, I want to project onto that. And then what we saw, like you said, in the back half of two years ago when they were healthy and the stylistic change that we saw in that offense, I want to believe that he's as malleable a quarterback as you could find in this range, right? And I do think that if he can continue to add different pieces to his game in terms of

working more under center, working more in the play action game, taking a little bit off of his shoulders again to that point of not having to ask him to be healthy and be creative, and having a work through, you know, making place through contact and all that. The less of that that's on his shoulders, I think the more we get to see just how much of a servant mentally he is. And when he's playing that kind of game, that's when Cincinnati's at its best. I think it's easy for us to all get kind of enthralled with the deep, you know, throws overhead against one-on-one coverage, and T. Higgins is dunking on a guy when he's healthy, and Jamar Chase is shoving guys off of him on it trouts and creating all this after the catch, or running a nine against the guy who's overmatched.

I love watching the chess match Joe Burrow can put on from the pocket, down to down, knowing where to go with the ball when teams are throwing all these different pictures at him, right? Like when I look at him as a quarterback, he gets defended the same way that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are defended in terms of all these different zone coverage looks, even though he is not as physically gifted as those guys. And you have to play him that way because he's an expert at knowing where to go with the football if you try to play simple defense against him. So he's still a very exciting watch for me.

I would just have him probably right about this range because of some of those physical limitations. That's part of the reason that they don't do the under center pro action stuff is because he wants to be able to diagnose and he wants to be able to see everything. That's easier. That's why I'd rather walk. Yeah, and that's Peyton Manning was like that, right?

And if you think about that, you think about Brian Calhann and like what that offense looked like and the influence there, they were doing so much Peyton Manning Colt stuff. and because Brian was in Denver with Peyton Manning because of the way that Borough processes and the way that he sees things. So I think that I don't know what it ends up looking like and how much of the play action stuff they lean into,

but I understand the reasoning behind what the offense was structured like for the last few years. And I'll say very quickly, they can get away with, you know, throwing everything on his plate, letting him five wide and it's just being shotguns and see everything because he has, there's a level of consistency and dependability to his game

that I think to your point about, you know, whether it's Trevor Lawrence or even Dak Prescott, there is on a on a given play i know exactly what i'm getting out of joe burrow like the the best plays from dac might be a little bit cooler in structure the best throws from trevor might be a little bit cooler in structure but down to down i know exactly what i'm getting out of joe burrow every single play and when that you know what i know what i'm getting is an eight out of ten every single play that's pretty dang valuable to have and so i totally get wanting the the dependability of what he is down to down things are going to get weird because the name is

that are still remaining on the board. But we got a lot. I'm fascinated by how this is going to go. Derek, you're up at nine here. Who you got at nine? So I think at this point, it's a slew of young quarterbacks. It's mostly a matter of how young do you want to go.

I'm going to go with the one that has at least played a decent amount of NFL football at this point, has at least played a full season. I'm going to take Jordan Love. And Jordan Love. So those are the two guys I was going to, I was choosing between it eight. It was between Joe Burrow and George. Yeah.

And it's almost actually like the same argument as like Trevor and Trevor versus Burrow as like Love versus Burrow because I think in a lot of ways, love and Trevor are very similar quarterbacks in terms of like very willing to hang into the pocket, very good arm talent, very willing to make throws into difficult windows. And you even saw that at the beginning of this year. Like the first six or eight weeks, you could tell Jordan Love was so willing and so ready to make he's like, I can just pin a 14-yard digger out right into this keyhole. But the timing of the offense just wasn't all the way there.

Like, the young receivers just weren't quite on the same page. And so it looked bad, but you could tell like, okay, this guy, there's something there. And then by the end of the season, it was like, okay, he is very clearly dialed into how this stuff is supposed to be, what the timing is supposed to be, where the ball is supposed to be. So I just love, really, you could almost copy paste everything I said about Trevor and put it to love. what I will say that is different about those two. Love is definitely a little bit more of a flexible and creative player.

I think that consists... Absolutely. That's why I like him almost more. Because I can just tuck myself into the upside. Trevor has a little bit more of like shit hits the fan and he's got a little bit better of an answer. To me, Trevor in structure is more of like a supercomputer processor. and I think at this stage,

I value that slightly, slightly more just because of how good he is at it. But what you trade off for, you know, the 10% of processing there for Jordan Love, you get back the 10% in the flexibility and creativity he has. Some of the throws that he was able to make outside of structure this year were just like,

again, nobody is quite in the Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen range or we'd be picking them one and two as well. But Jordan Love, in terms of the young players in this league, he is probably the closest you're getting in terms of like that, elasticity in his arm with like truly S tier arm talent,

like can throw it 60 yards and put touch on the ball. Because that's the other thing. Some dudes can throw the ball 60 yards. Like Lamar Jackson can throw at 60 yards. But he doesn't really have like the touch and art control of some of the other guys in the league. Jordan Love can put it 60 yards and it is just, it looks like a rainbow. That is, it's so hard to do. It's arm talent versus arm strength.

Exactly. I mean, at the core of it, that's what it is. for me was the stuff that he did drifting in the pocket. Because what are you going to be able to do when things break down? What is your answer to that? And his ability to drift and still make some of these throws because of how exceptional his arm is, that is what is so exciting for me about it. And I think you saw him get better at that over the course of the season.

Like the first, I don't know, eight weeks, it was like, okay, he's tough in the pocket. But I don't know if he knows where he needs to be to, like, access different throws. by the end of the season it was like, dude, he was doing stuff that is just making these little move, knowing exactly when like, okay, one step is enough here, okay, here I need to shuffle back. Okay, here I need to shuffle back, reset

three steps up and then make a quick throw without having to reset my base fully. Like he just, by the end of the season, it felt like he was locked in about how the pocket works. Whereas for that first month and a half, he didn't quite get it, even though he wanted to. But by the end, it was like, okay, he is fully locked in.

And to have that kind of growth over your first season as a starter. I mean, I know he's been in the league for three, four years, but your first season as a starter to have that caliber of development, that's very, very scary. This is the quarterback I'm probably always going to be irrationally more optimistic about than most of the other young guys in the league.

And it is because of like that trick shot quality that you were mentioning, Robert, right? Like, I don't know if he's ever going to be at that supercomputer level in terms of early downs or working. quickly through a progression to be in that Herbert and above type of conversation. But what he's going to be able to do in these high leverage, high variance situations, creating enough space and still being able to push the ball down the field, even when he's in compromise pockets, when things are taken away, if pictures change down the field in terms of coverage,

I just love his approach to quarterbacking, right? Like this range of guys, I think so much of it is going to come down to taste in youth, like you were saying, Derek. And for me, again, it just comes back to the fact that what I think you give up with him in terms of pre-snap processing, the ability to make quick decisions all the time, he can get himself out of trouble. He can create late in the down in a way that a lot of guys in this range just can't. Right. And I think that he can do that in a way that is not always going to be high risk, high reward, you know, when I think about Trevor. And that's where I do think there's a little bit of a debate, right? Like, like I said,

There are some things about Trevor that I'm just always going to be uncomfortable with. I think that because Jordan has that same level of arm talent, arm strength, and I like a little bit more of what he can be, you know, in terms of elasticity, like you mentioned, Robert, that's where I'm really, really high on what it can be at the end of this three-year window that we're discussing, right? It's entirely possible that that's the kind of guy that nobody wants to see in a one-game sample because he can get on a heater and make throws,

no matter what you're doing in terms of past Russian coverage picture that a lot of other guys just can't in the NFL. That creativity point, Derek, to me is central. I'll do this one. I would have taken him over Trevor Lawrence. If it were my pick and he were still on the board, I would have taken Jordan Love over Trevor Lawrence. And it is that creativity aspect to it,

that that's why I can talk myself into it. I don't blame me, though, because when I had the, I think it might have been when I had the DAC pick, I said that there were four guys I would have been comfortable taking. It was literally the from DAC Prescott to our next three picks. any of those four, I was like, I think I'm probably fine taking just about any of those guys here.

A couple numbers that I found, I was like, oh my God, he led the league in passing first downs on third down last year. Jordan Love had 76 passing first downs on third down in his first year as a starter, more than any other quarterback in the league. And if you look at the combination of high-low, I was like that, turnover where they plays big-time throws?

Like, where do you rank in both of those things? And his ratio on both ends, you can talk yourself into it. He has sprays. Like, if we're talking about down, like the downsides and the things that frustrate you, he has sprays in the same way the Trevor does, but it's that increased creativity, increased creativity, despite some of that inconsistency accuracy-wise that closes the gap a little bit for me. So I had to getting him at nine, I would have taken him in even earlier if Burrow hadn't been on the board. All right, DeOte,

you're up at 10 here. Who you got? This is really uncomfortable now. I knew this was going to happen in this range, but this gets really, really uncomfortable. But I'm going to call the shot. because if I'm wrong, I just don't care. I'm going with the rookie here. I'm going to say Caleb. Damn it. God damn it. I thought I was going to be able to do this later, and I'm a little bit frustrated.

So I was trying to play you guys, because I know that Derek would take May over Caleb when given the opportunity. But I was worried about you, and I was really hoping by 14 he would still be on the board and I'd be able to do this. And I'm a little bit disappointed. I had a feeling that the board was going to play out about this way. And knowing Derek, I know the guys that he would not. not take before this range. So I had a feeling I would have an opportunity to get Caleb here. And obviously, you know, we're playing a projection game now. But again, this comes back to style and what I'm comfortable with. And I think that this exists for me, maybe in a little bit of

different ways. And you talk about the nuances of style of play. But it's that elasticity, it's the creativity. It's the answers versus pressure. It's the pure arm talent. It's what he can do when he's off platform, you know, how he can answer different things the defenses throw at him. I've mentioned this probably ad nauseum. I loved him coming into the year and then that Colorado game, watching him in the first half. And he's kind of mentioned like, hey, I can kind of be a troll and be petty about things. But you watch him in the first half of that Colorado game. And it's almost like he walked in like, I'm just going to show you, I can put my back foot in the ground and just get the ball out of my hands, make the right decision, let guys go get yards after the catch.

And there's nothing you guys can do with me if I decide to be that quarterback. And then you know that a guy that can do that can also at a moment's notice say, I can put this game on my back and I can make a throw that only four other people on Earth can make. And that's something to me that I'm really excited about and I would much rather bank on what that can be over the next three years than the guys who are already paid veterans that we probably have questions about what the situation needs to be for those guys to be successful. No notes. Yeah, I mean, I'm kind of in the same. I'm all set. So many of the things we've talked about with these other guys,

the reasons that you can talk yourself into these other players. That's why you can talk yourself into him. I just think that so many of these qualities that we ascribe to elite quarterbacks, he's bringing those into the league. Creativity, feel. It's the reason that I feel so good about the bet that the Bears made because to me it's the right bet. The only concern I have,

and it's the concern I've had all the way through the process, and guys like Derek and Nate and other people who've really studied him if talked me off the ledge a little bit, is just that ability to play on time when it's called for. And can he do that consistently when it's called for? And I think he can't. It's almost like a kid that's too smart for school, where he just gets bored.

Like, that's what it felt like watching Caleb Williams play last year. And maybe that's a little bit of a rationalization, but that's what I keep coming back to. No, I mean, I think there's a little bit of that. And then I also think, I mean, especially playing against Pactoal defenses, right? But I also think Lincoln Riley's offense was not what it was at Oklahoma. You know, I've said this on... To me, it's more about the offense.

It's more about being bored by the options that the offense presented to him. And like I've said on previous shows, when Lincoln was at Oklahoma, he always had one of the best offensive lines in college football. And that, I think, changed the math on what he was allowed to get away with.

I think when he came to USC, the first year they had Jordan Addison, and that's kind of solved some problems and let you cheat some things. When they didn't have that this year and they had more of a normal supporting cast and then did not have a very good offensive line, I think it wraps,

rattled Riley's brain a little bit on how the offense was supposed to function and how he really wanted to go about things. And I think you add that on top of Caleb. There are three times a game where he says, he's just like, I don't want to throw the stick out. I'm going to go do something. So you add those two things on top of each other. You can get this product that looks a little bit volatile. But I actually, you know, and I've said this before, I think Caleb is actually going to really, really, really benefit and take to like NFL structure coaching of like, hey, you've got to be on time. you have to play this way.

I think when he gets to the NFL and he understands that this is a much tougher league and you can't just do all the run around, do whatever I want stuff, I think he's actually going to take to it really well. And maybe that takes three years the way it kind of took with Josh Allen. Like, you know, for Josh, it wasn't an immediate thing. It took a couple of years. Maybe it takes two or three years. But I think by the end of this window, I'm pretty sure he's going to be in a pretty good spot.

Like, honestly, like, you never know with rookies. But, like, Caleb's, like, average outcome to me is like what Jordan Love is now. And like he probably can be better than that. So good pick. I'm not going to fight this at all. I'm trying to tamp down those expectations as much as I can. But I also come back to that place where I just think that it's a can't or won't thing with the playing on time. Did he not do it because he can't or did he not do it because he had no interest in doing it for reasons X, Y, Z?

And I think that's the biggest question. But I understand doing this here because every other pick that you could make in this spot, there are warts and concerns. I thought I'd be able to get him later, but I don't mind you taking him here. So you guys, both of you, like, oh, yeah, the young guys, the young guys, the young guys. I'm not doing that here at 11. I knew somebody was going to do this. I'm going to do this. I'm going, okay, so, okay, let's talk about the other options I have here.

I can go with Drake May, we've never seen play football in the NFL before. I can go with Jalen Hertz who, I just, I'm not comfortable with the limitations compared to some of these other guys who have been paid. I've, it's been, and maybe I'm overstating this now, but the creativity part of the position has gotten so, so important to me. And he just doesn't have that to the same degree that some of these other guys do.

Like, if you're picking between J-1 Hertz and Matthew Stafford, it's almost like diametrically opposed quarterback stylistically and what they are. Fundamentally different people. And that's, and that's, I think it says a lot about me that I would make this Stafford choice over the J-1-Hert's choice. I value that set of skills so much more

that that's the way I'm, I'm willing to go with this. And with Stafford, again, we've talked about if this is step one of who you want to be, what does that mean for the rest of your team? If this quarterback is the initial piece that you're building around, what Matthew Stafford has been over the last couple years and what has been asked of him with the throws he has to make in that offense, you talk about throws being available to you? Anything is available to Matthew Stafford in the structure of that Rams offense, like truly

anything. What he was able to do last year in terms of just throws to all levels of the field, to creativity he showed within the pocket. I thought he was one of the best quarterbacks in football last year, full stop. And then you combine that with what he's asked to do mentally before the play. The fact that the Rams just come to the line of scrimmage with three plays, and it's like, all right, here's the one we're going to run this time. Like, it was so much as put on him mentally, structurally, in every single aspect.

And I just think that he's playing at such a high level that even at age 36, 37, 38, I would be willing to bet on him over the next three years over some of these other younger, cheaper guys that to me have more limitations and can't bring me as far as the first piece in the offense that I'm building. So that's why I'm going with Stafford. I feel totally fine about it.

I like it's funny. Like when I talk with NFL people, like people on the coaching side in the NFL and we're talking about like where offenses in the league, I like to get a gauge for just what frustrates defensive coaches the most. And when the second you bring up Stafford, and McVeigh, like everybody just kind of throws their hands up.

It's like, hey, we might, if we get in, there are times where we get forcing completions or maybe bad a pass or, you know, we force a tight window throw. And we're just saying, hey, we just got him that time. It's not because we did anything that was all that impressive schematically. We just happen to get them this time, right? And there are throws that Stafford makes, not only this year, you think about the Super Bowl run when he's healthy and at the best of his game, where I'm just like shaking my head, like, this is a sick man.

there's something wrong with you. You know, you see quarterbacking in a way that not many should, would, or could, even if they had the level of talent that he does, right? And then there's the mental aspect of it, which I think we've been able to get a greater appreciation for over the last three to four years because he's been tied to McVeigh. And you can see what, you know, that kind of Gruden style of offense can do with a quarterback at the helm that really understands how to find every answer, right?

snap and post snap. It's still one of the most enjoyable watches in the NFL because of what Stafford can do. I was talking to a coach on that Ravens staff that when they played that they played them last year, which is to me still one of the best football games of the year when you watch those two units go back and forth. And that touchdown he threw to Cup on the seven route in the red zone with the slot coming unblocked. He was just like, that happened. We were like, what are you supposed to do? Like, I mean, like, what am I supposed to do? And when that Ravens team and that Raven staff react to like that, think about what you're doing to the humans

that are trying to play defense against you last season. And that's what Matthew Stafford was last year. He could break those guys. So let alone everybody else that he was playing against. If you didn't make this pick, I was going to do it with the next one. Because I do think this is good. I'm very glad.

This is mostly the range of, like I said, all the young guys. But Stafford was the one where I was just doing the calculus of like, okay, how much do I want to weigh his age and health and stuff? But no, he is, I think if we were doing, like a one-year draft or just like, you know, talking about who was the best last year.

Stafford is top five, period. Like, it's probably the first four guys we drafted and then Stafford. And I think you can even make the case that like Stafford, the way that he was playing last year is better than Justin Herbert. Like Stafford, I mean, you guys said all of it. He is truly, when you talk about accessing every single level of the field all of the time from anywhere in the pocket from any arm angle and he knows it and he knows he can get away with all that. It's just you

mock this level of like, you almost unlock a different way to play the position in terms of doing stuff. I think that's exactly right. And a different way of playing offense. Yes, they're literally allowed to play offense and get away with stuff that I really don't think you could insert any quarterback other than

maybe Mahomes and maybe Allen and play the way that the Rams do. Like, Herbert is as talented as Matthew Stafford. He would not play the offense the way that Stafford plays the offense. He needs to be more unhinged. Yes. Yeah, that's what we need.

I just want Justin Herbert to be progressively more unhinged over the rest of his career and get to that level, but he's certainly not there right now. So even if the injuries and even if he's getting a little bit older, there's a chance is a disaster. There's a chance this is his last year in the NFL. But he's so good. He's left with whoever for two years. He's so good. That's kind of where I'm at.

All right, Derek, you're up at 12 here. We got to run through these last four a little bit quicker. Yeah, who are you looking at at 12? I'm stuck between two young quarterbacks. They play the same way, and I love them both very. dearly. I think I'm going to go with Anthony Richardson. And I know that this is like a bit of a gamble. Wow. But physically, how many people are more talented than Anthony Richardson? It's probably like Josh Allen and that might be it. And then I think the other thing about Anthony Richardson. So he

kind of came out of college. Okay, I want to say people, when he came out of college, way overstated how raw of a prospect he was. They made it sound like he was like completely tear down. He can't play the position, you have to teach him how to play it again. That was never true. It was more just like, okay, this guy's a one-year starter in an offense that was like not good and also constructed to where they just didn't run quick game. And so people

were like, oh, he can't throw one to ten. It's like, well, they didn't ask him to throw one to ten yards. So like, I think if you just gave him reps, gave him a few years, he's too physically talented to not figure it out. So I already came in last year with that mind of Anthony Richardson. The way he played when he was able

to play last year was like even way outpaced what I thought he was capable of. The pocket management was unbelievable. I think he played with much better timing than I was anticipating. Some of the throws that he was able to make over the middle were truly like, I think physically only like Allen and Stafford can make it just in terms of like the velocity that he's allowed to put on the ball. Some of the creativity he has outside of the pocket.

He's not really actually in that like Mahomes Allen psycho mode, but he can do enough outside the pocket and look for enough plays that like physically he can just get away with anything. And so I don't know. I'm just very willing to bet on what his development path is, especially with truthfully, like I kind of like the way that they're constructing this roster. And then like I even said a couple picks ago, I think it might have been with Trevor. The two things I'm going to bet on every single time. And I've done it with pretty much all of my picks at this point is pocket management and arm

talent. That dude is S tier in both of them. Like he might have some other issues. I know he's going to spray some throws. I know he needs to clean things up a little bit as a processor. But I will bet on those two things. And given the time at the end of this three-year window, I think he might be just something completely different.

I'm fine with all of that. I think that's right. We've seen him for like four games and then he got hurt. So it's a very limited sample that we've seen from him so far. I'm curious, Derek, I anticipated you taking Kyler Murray at some point in this process. Hey, I've got another big. bigger fan of Kyler.

Okay. But why Anthony Richardson over Kyler in a spot like this? Because I know you're a bigger Kyler fan than a lot of people. Yeah. So I did consider Kyler for this pick. I almost did it. The difference at this point, one, you are already

paying Kyler at this point, which I think is something to consider. And he is making a lot of money. The other thing to consider with Kyler, I know Anthony Richardson is obviously coming off of one year where he didn't get to play that much because he was injured. But Kyler is hurt. You know, we've seen him five, six years in the NFL now,

he is pretty consistently not able to get to week 17. And I think that that's a little bit of an issue. Again, there might just be maybe these next two, three years he does get to week 17 every year. I don't know. But I do think that when it comes to like splitting a very close tiebreaker like this, I'm kind of okay leaning on money and then the consistency of how much he's able to be on the field. Again, I might look stupid in two years when Anthony Richardson can't get to week 17 twice in a row.

But at least there's less evidence of him not being able to do it than there is with Kyler, who was pretty consistently banged up. So that's really the only difference to me, but you're spot on that I was thinking about him here. You know me well. I figured you would go with him at some point sooner rather than sooner than other people were willing to, but I'm not surprised that you went with Richardson here. Deontze, who do you have at 13?

And when you give me an answer, I've got a set of questions. All right. So to me, I was kind of open that, I was kind of open to like Stafford might be an oversight on your guys. is like him and he and richardson were like the two guys i had a list of guys rank and then stafford and richardson were the two guys i didn't have a number next to but i was looking at like okay emotionally if i get caught in the podcast and i feel like there's an opportunity to get this guy i'm willing to just tear up my draft board to go get to go get them we all have the same

process it's when we get to a point where the logic is no longer fun and i want to draft emotionally that's also how i stacked my board so i'm going to be i'm going to be the rookie guy i'm going to drink may here. I'm going to take Drake May here and I'm going to bank on what I think his three year window can be in comparison to Kyler. Obviously, you know, I feel more, I feel much more optimistic about him than like a Jalen Hertz or a Tua. And I think I'd rather have him in the next three years than what you would have to pay Jared Goff, you know, in Detroit's situation to keep to keep themselves in that contention window. So for me with May, it's checking all the boxes of what I love at quarterback play again, right? He can be a supercomputer. I've seen him throw with great anticipation when he

needs to. The willingness to take punishment to make high level throws is probably as impressive as anybody in this draft class, one of the most impressive I've seen of a guy coming out of college, right? Like, that's usually something that you don't see in a guy until he gets to the pros and understands what the change in the sport is between being a college level quarterback and a pro level quarterback. But you turn on, you know, an NC State game, you turn on the Miami game, and you're seeing these defenses that are throwing the house at this guy, and he's willing to stand in, check protections to try to buy himself some extra time, knowing that an in-breaker is coming, and I've just got to be willing to take a helmet to the ribs to go get 15 yards,

that willingness to do that. That's a quality that I'm always going to bump in quarterbacks, and he has that already. And then I think the physical skill set that he has in terms of extending plays, what he can be as a scrambler, what he can be in terms of sack avoidance, I think when he gets a little bit more of a supporting cast around him that he can trust. I don't, I can understand why he played maybe erratically against better defenses last year because he just didn't have as much he could trust in terms of receiver talent and offensive line talent. I think there's so much there to work with that if you just get 10% improvement in terms

of footwork and being able to deliver the ball and that one to 10 yard range more consistently. What he brings in terms of like the rest of the table, that can be in the conversation of top three quarterbacks in the league. And I feel really comfortable about saying that, about what he can be coming out right now. I don't disagree with any of that, okay? But Eagles fans are going to lose their minds at the way that this is played out. Okay?

So talk talk me through the Jalen Hertz fall here and why this is happening. So for me with Hertz, it's like it just comes down to the same conversation you're going to have with Tua, the same conversation you're going to have with Kirk Cousins, the same conversation you're going to have a Brock Purdy. These are more one-note quarterbacks. And I think at his best, when you're talking about a guy that can just sit in the pocket, deliver the ball to playmakers, and let them go create, I would say Jaylen Hertz is probably at, if not arguably, at the top of that cluster of guys. But the issue is that I just think there's a certain limitation that there is, right, the guys that we've named, you know, maybe say for the rookie quarterbacks or Anthony

Richardson, because we just don't have enough of a sample size to say definitively, all the other guys that are ranked ahead of them, I don't think any of those guys need an AJ Brown to be an MVP candidate. I don't think any of those guys needed Devote Smith to be an MVP candidate. I think that with Jalen and with this cluster of guys that I'm considering in terms of veterans that are paid, that you really have to consider from a team building perspective, right? Like, I just think, I don't think that I feel as warm about those guys. as the sample size increases, as I do about, you know, what could be with the rookie guys. Eagles fans already don't like me, so I don't really care. If you,

right now, okay, you call a team and you're like, I'll trade you Drake May or I'll trade you Jaywin-Hurts. Who do you think goes for more in the open market right now? It's Drake May to me.

Just Drake? I think it's probably, I think it's Drake May. When you consider contract and you consider the potential cliff in terms of where things will drop off at for Hertz when you consider what Hertz looks like when he's hurt now that we've seen that,

what he was at his best and the limitations he still had, I'd much rather take a bet on Drake May. It doesn't mean that I don't like Jalen Hertz. Derek knows this. The way I feel about Hertz is in the right situation. I have no problem with that guy as my quarterback. I just think that you have to build the right situation for him, and we don't have a context for this guy succeeding

outside of that kind of context. Yeah. And we go back to it. Like, if this is step one in a vacuum, what does it look like? And we have no idea what the answer is with J. 11 Hertz. The only time we've seen him without A.J. Brown, the results were. Pretty mixed.

Yeah. It wasn't really. You would keep the job. Exactly. No. No. Exactly. So part of the reason that I'm frustrated with this is I hope someone else was going to take J.1.

Hurts. So I didn't have to wrestle with the idea of taking Jalen Hertz. I'm sitting here at 14. Jalen Hertz is on the board other guys who I love Kyler Murray you know like who I don't necessarily love but I think Kyler is tantalizing option here when you consider

the upside but he is expensive like Derek mentioned and consistently has gotten hurt even if he is a one-note quarterback and even if he does have to find limitations Brock Purdy is making a million dollars in each of the next two years one million dollars over the next two years

before his extension would get in we have entered the coat tier to consider it. I have to at least consider it because of what sort of flexibility you get. Even with these other guys on rookie deals, okay?

Anthony Richardson is making $10.7 million in year three. It's a million bucks. You can afford a starting tackle for the gap between those two guys. So you at least have to consider it. And the other guy that I agree with you on golf, I like Jared Goff,

but he's probably going to be pretty expensive. And so that lack of, of creativity and some of those limitations I think are worth mentioning. I kind of want to take Gino. I was going to ask, how do you feel about Gino? Like there's part of me that wants to take Gino. You get age 33, 34, 35.

He's 26 million this year, 38 next year. And then he's a free agent in 2026. So that has its own downsides. I'm going to take Jalen Hertz. I'm not excited about it. but I just, the price is pretty good and I think what he gives you as a runner, so the efficiency that can come

with your run game, period, and then also what he can give you as a scrambler, I'm with you. I think one note is a really good way to put it. And I think that his note is a little bit more dynamic than some of these other guys because of what he can do with his legs. But everything you said about some of the concerns,

I'm with you on those, but I just think in this spot, when you consider the contract, would you consider what he's been, even if you have to put the right pieces around him, I think that's true for most of the guys that you would list off in this spot. So that's why I think that I'm comfortable going with him here,

even if it wasn't my original choice. I was really hoping that Caleb Williams would be here for me at 14. Yeah, I mean, even as, I mean, I might be the resident Jalen Hertz hater, but like I do think there is a certain level of floor that you get with a player like Jalen Hertz. Agreed. Obviously because of the athleticism stuff,

just the ability that he's able to go make plays as a scrambler, I think is pretty valuable. And then obviously in design run game in the red zone, short yardage, it's odd. It's more valuable than any other quarterback you could argue in terms of the short yardage stuff. Maybe Josh Allen, of course.

But then honestly, his deep ball stuff, like the fact that you always have on any given down, like, oh man, he might drop one in the bucket for Devontah. That is a pretty threatening thing to have to deal with. And it's almost,

you know, this is almost the Joe Burrow conversation where it's like, okay, it's kind of limiting that he has to do everything outside the numbers, but also because he's so good at throwing straight down the field, it's something the defense has always have to consider. And so when you have that mixed with his athletic ability, you do have this quarterback where it's like,

even if he has his own limitations, the defense is also kind of limited in what they're allowed to do because of that stuff. And then I do think Jalen is a pretty generally accurate quarterback. Like I have some issues in terms of what throws he's willing to make, and sometimes some of his timing in the quick game. But when he triggers on a throw, he doesn't really have those sprays that we've talked about with even some of the higher guys that we've talked about.

Like Stafford will miss a few a game. Dak will miss a few a game. Trevor will miss a few a game. Jalen, like, if he misses, it's probably just because he was late, not because he didn't make the throw correctly. And I do think, like I said, all of that stuff, you get to a level where the floor is pretty high

with a player like this. And then when you bring in an AJ Brown, a Dallas Goddard, a Devontas Smith, to be the ceiling, you can obviously get Super Bowl type of ceiling with the offense like this. Four is absolutely the right way to frame it. And I think that that's why I'm comfortable doing it. And again, the money stuff is confusing because the Eagles can get away with things money-wise that other teams don't because of how they're willing to structure some of these contracts.

So with other teams, you'd say, well, now that Jaylen Hurts got paid, how are you going to afford A.J. Brown and Devante Smith and one of the league's best offensive lines. Well, the Eagles extended both of those receivers this offseason. So clearly they can do it. So if I'm trying to like shoehorn in an argument here or win on a technicality, you can still build a great roster around Jalen Hertz's cap hits for the next three years. You have to have a owner who's willing to spend a lot of cash and a creative front office, but you can make it happen.

So in this simulation, that's the type of infrastructure and ownership group that I have with my J.1 Hertz led team. All right, Derek, you got our last one here. You're picking it 15. Close us out. I mean, you already kind of said it. Kalimari's still on the board. I'm going to take me some Kyler Murray, man. I just love the way that he plays.

And he's funny, too, because I didn't really love Kyler coming out of college. And I think even early in his NFL career, he was a little, I was more up and down on him. But I think actually, as he's developed as a player, I've come to appreciate certain things about him. Like, I used to think, because he's short, he couldn't throw the middle of the field that well. And I do think at times he still struggles getting it up and down and throwing with touch. But I think he's become a lot more willing. and able to do it. And I think that that's unlocked part of his game.

I also think his pocket presence has become honestly, like really, really good. He used to be kind of a guy who was, you know, tough in the pocket, but more wanting to, if things went wrong, just get out and go and go make a play. And obviously he can still do that. But he's actually become really willing to stand in the pocket, move around a little bit, make some certain throws. And then when you have his level of arm talent, his level of flexibility, his core strength, I was actually tweeting about this with Ted, Ted Wynn the other day.

Kyler's core strength in terms of like, I just need to like rip it off my back foot and launch it. There's like four dudes in the league who probably have better core strength than he does. Like Kyler is truly up there in terms of like he can just bomb it out of any platform. So I take all of that stuff. And then like I said, some of the creativity he has outside of the pocket. He to me is just, we've seen him play at an MVP level before. And I think he's actually only getting better. Like this almost goes back to the Joe Burrow point.

They were starting to do some more of the under center stuff last year, which was a concern I had with him for a long time. But it's like, okay, if he can throw the middle now a little bit, if he can play under center a little bit more, they can unlock more of the offense. And I think he's really good at managing the pocket and has a really good arm. I don't know. He's very much a quarterback where I think if he could just stay healthy,

I think we would all appreciate that he is a top 10 quarterback. it's just that he's never been able to do it. And that's why he falls to 15 or whatever it is here instead of maybe 9 or 10 or whatever it could be. I'm curious to see what he looks like in that offense that has Marvin Harrison Jr. that is in year two of that system that has a little bit more in the interior of the offensive line. It was an up and down handful of games for him at the end of last year.

But, I mean, that's because of who he's throwing the ball to and because of what he's surrounded with. Their run game when he was on the field last season was insane. They would have been tied with the dolphins for the best EPA per rush in the NFL with Kyle Murray on the field. And so that value that he brings, I mean, I think there's so many hidden kind of quiet ways that he makes your team better. And I think that we might really get a look at that this year if he stays consistently

healthy. Yeah, and that is the other cheat with Tyler Murray. He just makes your run game better by being out there. Like, I know every now and then people will be like, if people did this with Cam, people did this with Lamar, they'll be like, oh, well, the situation's good because look at how well they run the ball. It's like, well, the team runs them well. because the quarterback is like cheating how you're allowed to run the ball.

And Kyler is very much in that in that tier where he's he cheats what you're allowed to get away with. And so yeah, he's just, I don't know, I love watching Kyler play. All right. That's all we got. That was fun. I'm surprised the way that the last like four or five picks went, but I probably shouldn't be. The fact that Caleb Williams went 10 and Anthony Richardson went 12 in this exercise. All right.

We will be back here next week doing the non-quarterbacks. It is that time of year. Guys, I sincerely appreciate you spending the time to do this. Also sincerely appreciate all of you listening. We will be back with a couple more shows later this week. Got a good one with my buddy Bill Barnwell coming for you guys in the middle of the week. So please be on the lookout for that. Until then, appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.