The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The biggest question facing each AFC team this offseason

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

After assessing the biggest questions facing the NFC, on this episode, The Athletic’s Robert Mays and Lindsay Jones shift their attention to the AFC. What does year two hold for Joe Borrow? Will the “Urban Meyer experiment” actually work? They dive into each team and the top concerns they have this offseason. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Yesterday, we did the biggest questions facing the NFC teams this offseason. Today, we're going to flip it to the AFC, just as compelling, so much to get into. And I'm very excited to welcome my good friend, Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, how are you?

I'm great. I'm really happy to be back. I mean, we took one week off, but I'm ready to go. It was one of those things where we talked about it the last. show that we did. I'm sitting there looking at the calendar and I was like, all right, you know, maybe there won't be anything to talk about that last week of February. We can wait until March. And by last Friday, I'm sitting on my couch. It's like, what the hell else am I doing? I might as well come back and talk about some football. There's

no shortage of things to discuss. So let's get right into it here. We're going to start with the AFC West, your backyard, the place that you know very well. And we're going to start with a defending AFC champ. So you and I are going to alternate these. After doing it with Nate yesterday, it got a little unwieldy. This is going to be a little more streamlined than yesterday's show. So why don't you start us off with your biggest question facing the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason? Sure. I mean, as much as I would be happy to go 90 minutes, I think we'll streamline this a little bit here. 90 minute podcast three days a week for the entire NFL off season is in the interest of absolutely no one. To be fair, you and Nate took some serious detours along the way to get there, which we might do

today. But let's dive in. Let's start right with the Kansas City Chiefs. And my big question, for the Kansas City Chiefs is what did they learn from the Super Bowl? Did the loss to the bucks reveal some sort of fatal flaw within the way that the Chiefs are built, within the way that they play, or was it more of a coach speak? Was it a bad day to have a really bad day? Because that's really the question now, right? If the 2020 motto for the Chiefs was run it back and trying to keep as much of that group together and do the exact same thing in 2020 as they did in 2019, I think 2021 has to be looking at what worked, what didn't work, who needs to stay, who needs to go, how do they trim the fat, and then, you know, what are the places that they need to upgrade so that they don't, you know, suffer a 31 to 9 type of loss like they did last year. So, you know, I don't want to overreact too much to what happened in the Super Bowl because I think there were, you know, some situations that were happening that aren't going to be, that just aren't going to happen again.

I mean, the odds that the Chief's offensive line will ever be as decimated by injuries in one game with that many changes to that many positions, that's unlikely to happen, right? And that was one of the biggest flaws, one of the biggest issues that they had in that game. But I think there were some, you know, other legitimate questions about, you know, maybe the way that that team was built, some rostered efficiencies and some areas that they really seriously need to upgrade going into this, going into next season. They don't have a lot of huge contract questions. I mean, this time last year, it was like, all about Patrick Mahomes' deal and what are you going to do about Chris Jones? Are you going to franchise tag him, re-sign him, trade him? They don't have a ton of that right now. But I think there are some areas on that roster where you looked at kind of the entire body of work from 2020. And then specifically what happened in the biggest game of the season and you say, okay, what

happened there? And I think primarily it's going to be on defense and figuring out how do you upgrade that defense. What do you do at pass rush with the pass rush? Frank Clark isn't going anywhere. You know, we talked about him heading into the Super Bowl that we were kind of both a little disappointed in the production level. 25.8 million dollar cap hit this year. So, yeah, he has the highest salary on the team this year, higher than Patrick Mahomes in 2021, which is problematic. But he's not going anywhere. So what do you do to make sure that the past rush is better around him? What can you do to make his life a little bit easier? So I think those are kind of some of the areas. And then, you know, and then the offensive line, I think is the other.

you know, big question that they're going to face heading into next year. Both of their tackles, Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz are going to be coming off of pretty significant injuries. Mitchell Schwartz had surgery on his back on Wednesday, kind of finally addressed an issue that he was hoping all last year was going to clear up and never did. So now he was getting it surgically repaired. Eric Fisher obviously tore his Achilles and the AFC championship game. So those are two of your most important offensive players coming off of very significant injuries.

But then there's a lot of other guys in that offensive line that are free agents. Austin Ryder, Mike Remmer's, Kalichi Oscemele, Dan, Kilgore, all of those guys are free agents. Most of those guys were kind of depth pieces. But that's what you've got to worry about now. I mean, I think that trimming the fat is the right way to frame this. And like you said, this team is fully formed now. There are no big lingering questions about what sort of deals we want to hand out. Last year, they didn't have much cap room and they had those questions to answer.

Now the questions have been removed, they still don't have any cap room. and now it's about figuring out the margins of the roster. So as it stands right now, they're about $23 million over the cap. There aren't that many clear cuts that can save them a bunch of money. Anthony Hitchens could give them some cap space, whatever else, but there's a good chance that they're going to have to do some restructuring here. Tyron Matthew is in the final year of his deal with a $19.7 million cap hit. They could extend him and bring that number down as a way to get some savings.

But that's the mode that this team is going to be in now. they have this roster as it exists. How do we figure out how to get better on the margins? And I think the areas that they have to do that in are on the interior of the offensive line and on the defensive front. Obviously, Chris Jones and Frank Clark, but how do you supplement that with another edge rusher to help your pass rush? What do they do at linebacker?

So to me, like you said, interior offensive line and defensive pieces, you can't spend a lot on any of those, obviously. So how do you figure out ways to get by in the bargain bin, whether that's in free agency or a little bit later in the draft? And I'll say the good news if you're the Kansas City Chiefs and, you know, I'm sure you're still really disappointed by what happened in Tampa that day. The good news is, is unlike, I don't know, probably 13 of the teams we're going to talk about for the rest of this podcast, you don't have a question of quarterback. So all this other stuff is fixable, right, when you have the best quarterback in the NFL. Absolutely.

But I do think it's worth mentioning that the Patrick Mahomes gravy train, we're off it now. I mean, he's not making an obscene amount of money, but he's counting 20. $25 million against the captain. Yes. So that window where the best player in football was also on a bargain basement deal, that's over even if he's still technically underpaid. So just something to keep in the back of your mind when you're considering the accounting that this team now has to go through every single year from here on out.

So it's a little bit of a different world we're playing in with the chiefs now. Although at least he makes the guys around him better. And so his contract isn't quite as cumbersome as like a Jared Gough. who you're paying a ridiculous amount of money for, but he isn't necessarily elevating the other guys. Patrick Mahomes has a $24.8 million cap hit right now. If it was twice that, you wouldn't even think about it. Yeah.

It's going to go up. It does go up. It does go up. Yes. But right now. They structured it in a very team friendly way. He absolutely did. There's a lot of money that was left on the table for Mr.

Mahomes and his agent. But I'll say a little baby, little baby Sterling Mahomes is not going to be lacking, though, for, doing just fine. And Lee Steinberg is going to get to tell anybody that listens that he just handed out the richest, he got the richest contract in sports history. So good for them. All right. Let's get to the Chargers. I had this one. I was going back and looking through the roster today and I was thinking about their outlook and I was like, oh, Brandon Staley and, you know, Justin Herbert. And I just did it again. I just, I'm going to go down this road every single time. I tweeted it out. I'm ready to get hurt again.

I am ready for the Chargers to hurt me. So my big question, though, associated with them and what they need to do this off season. So let's not get too far in the future here. How do they surround Justin Herbert? And I think the number one aspect of that is offensive line. It's not a secret. They have needs from left tackle to center. With Mike Pouncey leaving,

they really don't have anybody established on that side. You have Trey Turner and Brian Bolog on the right side. They were hurt a little bit last year, but at least they're on the roster. They need to upgrade those spots. in my mind for some reason I thought that they had a much worse record than they did did you know the chargers finished seven and nine last year well you know they beat the chiefs in week 17 they won four games in a row at the end of the season I just for whatever reason in

my mind I was like oh they're in the I didn't realize it was four in a row they won four in a row so now they're picking 13th which Pyrrhic victories if there ever were any so they still need a tackle though and it does seem like there might be one in that range so but that Offensive line is the number one thing they need to address. They have a decent amount of cap space. I mean, they have some room to work with. So if they wanted to go out and find a guard in free agency, for example, something like that, those three spots are important.

And I also think it's worth considering what they're going to do with the past catching positions. Mike Williams is still on the roster, but he's making about $15.7 million this year. That's a lot of money. I would be surprised if he played on that number this year, whether it's through an extension or them getting rid of him. He has no guaranteed money left. Exactly. So it does not seem like that's going to be something they work with. And if they don't, how do you work with your past catchers here?

You have Keenan Allen, but Hunter Henry's a free agent. So I think that should be the biggest consideration for them is how do we build this up around Justin Herbert? Past catchers, offensive line, and schematically, what does it look like? You know, Joe Lombardi hasn't been an offensive coordinator in a long time. Brandon Staley has said he's going to have a hand in what that offense is. So I trust Staley to figure it out on defense. Who those pieces are going to be is a different question. You know, Casey Hayward's on a pretty expensive deal.

Chris Harris is. They could theoretically move on from either of those guys. You have Joey Bosa and Derwin James is like your queen's on the chess board like he had in L.A. So I trust them figuring out that side. The offense and what those pieces look like, I think is the most pressing question. They're going to be a really interesting team to me in free agency because, you know, they do have money to work with right now, projected to be about $35 million to spend.

And I think they're going to be a really attractive destination. And if there's guys where, you know, you might want to sign a one-year deal or a two-year deal, you're a cap casualty elsewhere, you're looking around and you say, okay, who's built to maybe take a jump this year. And you look at a team that has Justin Herbert who all the veterans freaking love him. And I think he earned a ton of respect from guys around the league, defensive players around the league who had to face him during his rookie year. So they're a really interesting team for me that, you know, they might be one of those teams that can really capitalize on cap casualties elsewhere and get a couple of really kind of value signings.

And like you said, and maybe not the sexiest positions at guard, you know, those type of positions that could make some serious upgrades pretty quickly or a wide receiver where it's going to be a really interesting and pretty active wide receiver market, I think. So you might be able to get some value there as well. And I think I've seen guys like Jalen Waddle or Devante Smith work. to fall into the middle of the first round because of size concerns, they could just add a receiver there. I mean, I think you go best player available at a couple specific spots, whether it's offensive line receiver or whatever. This team is more of a blank slate than you probably think at first glance. They do have a lot of resources and they do have some needs, but I also think they have really good players at some of the most important positions. So they're going to hurt us, though.

The only thing is how is it going to happen? It's going to be a different way. The biggest question about the Chargers is how are they going to break our hearts this time? But that's not the biggest offseason question about the Chargers. That's like a September through December question for sure. Exactly. Exactly. All right. Let's get to the Denver Broncos, the team you obviously know very well. I am super curious what yours is here. This is a weird team. Yeah. I mean, I think there's a lot of questions you could have. But if we have the one big question, the one big question is, is Drew Locker quarterback? And the answer to that question is going to

inform just about everything else. And until you answer it, you still, everything else is kind of up in the air. And we don't know the answer to that. And sports radio host here in my city are very happy to have hours and hours and hours of quarterback speculation. I mean, we had that one year reprieve last off season where you didn't have to wonder and have hours of debate about who the quarterback was.

But now we're back, right? Because the Broncos, they made an offer. They were in on Matthew staff. there's a lot of rumbling still going on about Deshaun Watson. You're hearing Kareem Jackson has been out there, you know, very publicly advocating to get Deshaun Watson here lobbying for Kareem Jackson to come to Denver. Jerry Judy has talked about how much he'd like to play with Deshawn Watson.

So there's a lot of quarterback stuff that if Drewlock ends up being the quarterback, it's not a sign that they are all in on him. Last year, all in on Drewlock. Every single thing that they did in 2020 was a move to say Drewlock is our guy. and we're going to try to do everything to make him successful. That is not happening right now in 2021. If he ends up being your guy, it's because the other avenues kind of fell through.

Do you think they're dead set on a different avenue? Like, if you had to bet on it, like, would you, you don't think it's anything but Drewlock. Like, they're not hell-bent on going to do something like the Sam Darnold deal just to move on from Drewlock in your mind. No, I don't think so.

I mean, I think that there are redeeming qualities is for Julek, and I think a lot of the things that they liked about him. When I say they, I mean, John Elway and Vic Fangio, George Payton, new general manager is the complete wildcard in this scenario because you're adding in, you know, the top decision maker now who wasn't a part of bringing Jewelock here or any of the moves that they made last year. So I think there are things to like about Jewelock and things that you can certainly work with and build around, but I think it would be irresponsible of them to not at least explore all these other avenues. I think the most likely option, you know, from laying odds, right, on who's going to be the starting quarterback on week one, I think it's most likely going to be Drew Locke.

But it's going to be under much different circumstances. His job is far from secure. I think they'll be bringing in at least a veteran quarterback. I think a quarterback could be still on the table in the draft and high in the draft potentially. So I think there's just every quarterback option really is still out. there. And until you know if Drew Locke is your guy or not, it really, it really just informs everything else. There's a lot of other kind of smaller questions that aren't necessarily small. You know, what are you going to do about Von Beller? He's got a team option coming up really soon. He's been the most popular player, the face of the franchise, future Hall of Famer, you know, all of those things. But it doesn't seem like a guy who can come back under his current contract. He also has had a lot of drama kind of going on with him over the last couple months as well, which is really kind of cloud. everything here. It would be kind of unfortunate if the end of his time in Denver ends under

kind of negative circumstances. Obviously, he didn't play all of last year. He suffered that, I believe it was an ankle injury right before week one. You've got Justin Simmons to deal with, you know, he played on the franchise tag last year, earned himself a ton of money in the way that he played while on the franchise tag last year. I think he's one of those guys that you really need to resign, but he's going to cost a lot of money. And it's kind of the resigning thing. He can You'll probably tag him again and afford it, right? I mean, based on the amount of resources they have, that's theoretically possible if they don't want to lose him. Yeah, it is certainly possible.

He's the kind of signing or resigning that John Elway probably wouldn't make if John Elway was the one who was making final decisions. He doesn't resign a lot of his own guys. And so I'm very curious to see how the Justin Simmons situation is going to play out. I think he's going to get some really nice offers elsewhere if he gets some. all the way to the market. But then it's just, you know, how do you... The other thing is, I mean, if they cut Von Miller, if they move on from Von Miller and let's say Jarrell Casey gets cut, for example,

this team, and this is why I said they were so weird, they're closer to a blank slate than I think a lot of people would think at first glance because you think, oh, they added all those offensive pieces and they signed a couple of these guys on the offensive line, whatever, their defense, outside of like Bryce Callahan and Bradley Chub, they could just start over this year if they wanted to, which I just didn't know they had that much flexibility and that option to pivot if they really wanted it.

Yeah, I mean, they've already moved on from AJ Bouye. You know, he's already been released. Kareem Jackson has a club option. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of guy. I mean, Bradley Chubb will be back. You know, he would be kind of like the defensive, the defensive guy then that you build around. But they were the most expensive defense in the NFL last year,

and they were one of the oldest. defenses in the last year. And there were times that they were really good and they were in games and they won a couple games because that defense is really good. How much of that was talent, how much of that was Vic Fangio coaching, probably a little bit of both. But after you answer the quarterback question, they just really need to figure out a way to get younger and cheaper and still be good on defense. Because I think if you can still be good on defense, if that offensive core develops the way that they're hoping it will and if you get a little bit better quarterback play, you'll at least be a competitive team.

The problem I see when I look at the Broncos right now is that they are no closer and they might be even further away from the best teams in the AFC and specifically from the chiefs who are in your division. And that's a problem, right? If you're the fourth team in your division and your division has the best team in football in it or the best team in the AFC in it, that's a really significant problem. And what can you do to accelerate that and to close that gap more quickly? And that's a lot of work to do.

I'm just wondering, do they say, let's try to see what we have one more year with this group. Let's bring Vaughn back. Let's bring Kareem Jackson back. We can afford it. We even bring Justin Simmons back as part of that. See what this core on defense can do. See if the offense can take one more step. And if the answer eventually becomes no, you're no worse for the wear next season.

The only real risk you run there is Cortland Sutton's a year older. Those past catchers are a year older, a year closer to free agency than they would have been. but then you essentially do have George Payton starting over with an entire blank slate next year. You can really just press the reset button after this season if it doesn't go well rather than kind of going halfway with it in a way they might have to if they only move on from a couple of these guys. They're kind of in this weird territory. That's just why I don't have a really good feel for exactly how they want to approach this. I also think if it doesn't go well this year, you can move on from Fangio, you can move on from Locke.

it really is George Payton's vision of the franchise with John Elway then because he hasn't had no hand in how this has been shaped so far. And look, I don't, I never want to like get too into analyzing like fan bases or whatever and their psyche. But like this city and this fan base is not ready to handle one of these just like another throwaway year. And it's just, it's such a weird situation to be in where if you're the Broncos and you look and you say, we're just not competitive.

Do we wait a whole another year? or do you have to go all in and, you know, make the big moves this year? And that's where this whole transition from Elway to Peyton is, I think, going to be really, really interesting because we know where Elway would stand, right? I mean, Elway was always, you know, pedal to the medal, always trying to compete, make the big move every year. I think there was only one year in the 10 years that he was a general manager where he even was kind of okay with like resetting expectations.

and maybe it's just a longer build. And then people here in Denver are just going to have to get excited about the nuggets and the avalanche for a little while and let this be a little bit longer rebuild. All right. Let's move on. I had the Raiders. This is pretty simple to me. How do you bring some juice to that defense? I mean, the offense has been a top 10-ish group over the last couple years.

Based on everything that I've read and heard, every call about Derek Carr has been left. crickets have been the response. They don't want to trade him, which is understandable. When you have a quarterback that's playing at a decently high level and allows you to be a top 10 offense, that's a guy worth hanging on to. That's why they're getting calls about him. The offense, I think, is kind of set. They're going to move on from Tyro Williams this year. That's been reported. I would almost bet you that they'll trade Marcus Mariotta, which would give them some cap relief as well. So they'll have a little bit of wiggle room to work with. Now it's just a matter of how do you add talent to this defense? And they've just

tried to do it through spending and even through some of these picks and it just hasn't worked. So can you find another edge rusher? Can you get an impact player at safety? Can you do some of those little moves along with bringing in Gus Bradley to take this from one of the five or so worst defenses in the league to an average unit that really gives you a chance at the postseason because of how well your offense is playing? That's the biggest thing to me. God, I'm going through the Raiders defensive roster right now and like just looking at like

guys that I'd want to keep and guys that I'm like, oh, yeah, he has to stay on the roster. And it's not great. Like, I like Corey Littleton. It's one of those situations where everybody that has gotten there has played worse than they did at their previous stop. Whether that's college prospects coming in or guys like Corey Littleton, Nick Quiet Koski, Lamarcus, Joyner. They just haven't been able to solve any of these problems. And sometimes when that happens, when guys consistently don't live up to. expectations, it becomes an organizational issue.

That's why Paul Gunther is no longer the defensive coordinator there. But is Gus Bradley in that fairly familiar Seattle-based defensive thing? It's not very sexy. We know what it is. Is that the answer? Can you get more from Trayvon Mullen and from Damon Arnett? I was trying to think of whoever the other corner was. Can you bank on some in-house development with a new defensive coordinator?

And can you bring it some new guys? I mean, these are all familiar questions. Rod Marinelli is still the defensive line coach there. Rod Marinelli got guys from the Cowboys that he wanted there last season and nothing worked. They still were one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of generating pressure like they happened for the last couple years. So that's where we are. How can you add some explosiveness and some juice to this defense through any avenue possible? It's almost like the Cowboys defense didn't have a lot of really good players to pick from. I liked Malik Collins just for.

fine. Sure. I mean, they just, they haven't gotten the most out of anyone they've brought it. So do you want them to spend in free agency there? Do you want them to allocate a draft resources there? They've got about $2 million to spend.

They've got to do, probably do some Derek Carr extension, which might give them some, might give them a little bit of room. So right now, yeah, so if they move on from Mariotta and Williams, that essentially takes them to the cap,

right? So what you do after that is a question. Do they move on from Lamarcus Joyner? They can save a lot of money that way. Gabe Jackson is a place where they could save some money. They're not going to have a ton to throw around. I think they're probably going to be shopping in the bargain bin. Is it guys like Kerry Hider, for example,

who I think is an underrated player? Is Justin Houston somebody you can go get in the back half of his career? These aren't big names, but it does feel like this is the group of players they're going to have to pluck somebody from to add something to that pass rush and to the defense overall. All right. Let's move on to the AFC North. Let's start with the Baltimore Ravens.

Lindsay, this is yours. What is the biggest question facing the Ravens this offseason? Is it mine? All right. We screwed this up. I have the Ravens, I guess, and I can do this on the fly. I think it's how you upgrade the passing game. I think it's pretty simple.

And obviously, you know, Greg Roman is still there. David Cully moved on. It's now the Texans head coach. So some tweaks on the coaching staff. I think it's how you find that true number one option in the passing game. They have about $18 million. in cap space right now, they have some needs. That's partly because they're losing both of their edge rushers.

So this is a team that's not as complete as it was last year, but I just think having a bigger physical presence on that offense is going to be necessary. And there are some teams where it's not as simple as saying go chase the big time receivers and free agency. It's just not an option. For this team, I think that's where they have to be shopping. They need to be kicking the tires on guys like Alan Robinson, Kenny Gallaudet. I think this would be an awesome Corey Davis destination.

If you popped him in there as your ex-receiver with Marquis Brown, that would be a good solution. That is necessary for me. They need to upgrade what they do in the passing game and who's catching the passes. Because as you watch them at the end of last season, they were desperately missing that big physical prototype target on the outside. And this isn't new. We've been talking about this for months. I mean, we wanted them to do something at the trade deadline. You know, I think we've been wanting that sort of presence.

in the passing game for them for a really long time. And it's critical for Lamar Jackson in, I guess it'll be year three, right? Year three as a starter as the starter to really have that help. He can't do all of this on his own. And I think they're going to need to make some changes to their run game, the personnel in their run game, their offensive line has a lot of questions right now. What's going to happen with Orlando Brown who wants out? He adamantly, he has been very public with the fact that he wants to be traded.

So what's going to happen there? But yeah, I mean, they do have money to spend. They can be very active in what's going to be a really, really interesting wide receiver market, whether that's the free agent class, some of those guys that you just named, it's also a really good wide receiver draft. You know, they're drafting later, obviously, in the first round. But I think there's going to be a lot of depth to that class that wouldn't necessarily have to use one and use your first round pick.

But I think that is absolutely the right answer. There's going to be some defensive questions that they need. need to answer there. But there's no reason for me to believe that, um, you know, with a couple of these upgrades, that they shouldn't be one of the, maybe that second tier and that second tier of teams in the AFC with the capability to get into that first tier where the chiefs and the bills, um, I think that's really who the, the top tier is in the AFC right now, but to get into that tier of those teams. I totally agree. I think if they find an edge rush or somewhere, edge rushing help or they can manufacture a pass rush, manufacture a pass rush and go out. And go out. And, you find,

and get a real number one receiver. I think that's going to be necessary for them. Okay, let's move on. You had the Cincinnati Bengals. What is the biggest question facing the Bengals as soft season? So I want to know who is Joe Burrow in year two. You know, he's a guy that we we talked so much about in the first half of last season. And rightfully so, number one overall pick was playing largely playing really well on a team that

really wasn't very good. And then obviously, like, a really devastating ACL injury. So it's almost like we forgot about him. We spent so much time talking about Justin Herbert. And, you know, you stop talking about. the guy who was the number one overall pick in last year's draft. So I want to know what Joe Burrow year two is going to look like. His offseason is obviously going to be significantly disrupted,

but this should be the biggest off season for any quarterback going from year one to year two. He's not going to get that time, that on field time. To be fair, most of the teams, most of the guys probably are going to get that off field time because we're still going to be in COVID protocols. But just in terms of like the stuff that you need going from year one to year two, he's going to be focused on ACL recovery. That's going to be the number one priority.

So it's who is he going to be coming off of his ACL in year two? And then what are the Bengals going to do to continue to invest around him? They have 28 free agents. A lot of offensive line issues. I think that's where it has to start is getting better up front around him. I think they need to get better at skill position players. AJ Green is a free agent. He's in that group.

Seems like he should be gone. right? I mean, free AJ Green and let him go become a New England patriot, like his destiny probably always has been that he would end his career there. It would be a little more exciting if it were four or five years ago, AJ Green and not the one we saw last year. Yeah, like 30, what is it going to be? 33, 34 year old AJ Green won't be nearly as fun in New England, but it's probably going to happen. So yeah, I mean, that's just my big question, right, is where this guy goes, who he is going to be. They kept Zach Taylor. There were some questions heading into. you know, week 17 and right after week 17 last year, if Zach Taylor would be back for another year.

And ultimately, they decided to kind of keep some consistency there for Joe Burrow. But now he's there. So they're going to really need to make some significant gains next year to kind of get back to being relevant in the NFL. I think it's a matter of how you protect him and how you surround him. It's a similar consideration to the one with Justin Herbert. And if you look at this team, they're in a position to do it really fast. They have the fifth pick in this draft. there is absolutely a world with the first four picks in this draft of quarterbacks if somebody

trades up with the dolphins, which I think is definitely in the realm of possibility. So they could be sitting there with the number two pick in the draft more or less and be able to pick the best player available. If that's Pene Soule, it's Pene Soule. And they get a tackle. They move one of them to the right side. Now you have two first round tackles. You have a ton of money.

Even more money if you decide to move on from Gino-Ackins, which seems reasonable. do you go out and get a guy like Joe Tune who grew up 50 miles away from Cincinnati. Somebody was Google mapping this today. And I think absolutely would be open to that. And now in the span of a month, the left side of your offensive line goes from a weakness to a strength. And now you can put that in front of Joe Burrow. You have T. Higgins. You have Tyler Boyd.

You go out and you try to find one more receiver, whether it's in free agency or somewhere else. And suddenly, you can feel really good about the supporting cast you have. around the guy you drafted first overall last year and significantly failed to surround with the proper guys in his rookie season. Because that was, it was so hard to watch times last year, you know, where there were elements of it where you were like, oh, my God, this guy is amazing, he's adopting so quickly to the NFL game. And then you had just these flashes of David Carr.

And are they going to ruin him? Even the play he got hurt. The pocket was just collapsing around him. I mean, there was so many of those plays last year. And I think they like Trey Hopkins, their center. He's somebody that they've paid. So if you have Hopkins, Williams, Xavier Suafilo was hurt for a chunk of last year. If you want to put him at right guard, you have Thune at the left side and you draft

Pennissoul at fifth overall, you can live with that. I just think that's where their mindset needs to be. We'll see what happens on defense. You know, they're getting DJ Reader back who was hurt for a lot of last year. Trey Wayne's a guy they spent money out of free agency. He was hurt all of last year. So I think there are a lot of question marks on that side, but they've already made some significant investments over there.

I think this year is about the offense and how they can protect the most important investment they're going to make in this era. It was really interesting to see the Bengals spend a lot of money in free agency last year because that is not typically what the Bengals do and what a Mike Brown team does. So I'm curious to see if they do it two years in a row if they're actually spenders on the market. Is there anything else you'd like to say about Carl Lawson before we move on? Just get some Bengals fans up in your mentions. I love Carl Lawson. I think they would be well served to keep Carl Lawson. If they want to franchise him, that's fine.

He is somebody that if he does hit the market, I think the team is going to be really happy. When he's healthy, he's one of my favorite pass rushers in the NFL. So that's something for them to consider, but they have the money. And they're at a position now where if they want to be able to pick off some of these guys that end up being cap casualties, they can control the market in a way because of how much cap space they have. It's a matter of how aggressive they want to be.

And with them, that's always the question that you have to ask. All right. Let's get to the next team here. The Cleveland Browns, again, I think this one's pretty clear. How do they upgrade the defense? I mean, that's the offense, I think, is set. We'll see what happens with Jarvis Landry and O'Dow Beckham. They're both on reasonable contracts. I mean, they're guys that have been paid, but I don't think that their numbers should preclude you from keeping them. That offense with Beckham, with Landry, in a year two, pretty much everybody coming back, they have all the makings to me, of a top five unit. Now, how do you use some of those resources that you have on defense? They have $31 million in cap space right now if they release Sheldon Richardson, which I assume they will. So then, where do you add the pieces? They definitely need somebody on the other side

losing Vernon. So I think JJ Watt, it was reported today by John Clayton. The Browns are out of the running there. So I think it's who's your second pass rusher, which I think is a really important question. Do you out a guy like Carl Lawson, if he were to hit free agency, I see somebody you'd be interested in. What do you do on the interior defensive line? And then through the middle. This is a team based on their thinking and how analytics forward they are. They're not going to be a team that spends it linebacker,

even though that is a need for them. But in the secondary, even though you have Denzo Ward, Grant Delpit, who missed all of last season, some younger players. Outside of Ward, I don't think anybody in that group is going to block anybody you bring in. So in my opinion, it's just about adding the best players you can up front. on the back end and I think that's where their mindset is. Well, and kind of like in the same vein as what I said about the Chargers,

I think they're going to be a really interesting destination because I think if you are, you are a veteran who maybe isn't going to get the big deal that you want this year because of the drop in the salary cap and you want to take a shorter deal, maybe a little bit more guaranteed money up front. You want to go a place where you were going to be able to win, where the culture is good. All of a sudden, Cleveland looks really attractive. And it might not be the right spot for JJ Watt, you know, who's kind of the big name free agent who's on the market actively right now. But it could be a really intriguing destination for, you know, some of these other guys who are going to go who were 28, 29, 30 years old to go and sign kind of a one year deal who looked at what they did last year, the way that they played down the stretch, what it seems to be like playing for Kevin Stavansky, you know, with a young quarterback in offense that's good.

and they're going to be really fun. I think they're going to be really, really fun to watch. And I think you're right on the defensive upgrades. I think the instinct is right there because I don't think they need a ton, a ton of fixes on offense. You know, I think they spent so much on offensive line last year. You know, depth there is always going to be an issue. It was an issue for them because of injuries last year.

But, yeah, they can spend money on defense and they should spend their money on defense. It's fun. if you look at their cap, it's actually really funny the way it's laid out. So from top, the top like 10 guys on their cap in terms of cap hit, wide receiver, wide receiver, offensive tackle, center, quarterback, offensive guard, cornerback, edge rusher. You think this is a team that takes analytics into account when they figure out how they're going to pay guys and how they're not? Like, that's exactly how you build the top of your cap if you were going to do it is with those exact positions, which I don't think is an accident.

And I don't think any of those guys are overpaid. No. I don't think so either. I think that the Conklin contract was expensive, but he was really good for them in year one. And $13 million for a tackle, I think is totally reasonable when your quarterback is on a rookie contract. So they've done a really good job of building this roster. It was a strength coming in. And I think now it's about figuring out how you put the last couple pieces in place.

And I don't think they have to be in a rush to do an extension for Baker yet. They could do one now. He's in the point of his career where they could extend him now. but they don't have to. They don't have to kind of start that clock on having an expensive quarterback quite yet. They can get another year of let's see who Baker is going to be, year two, finally having two years in the same system with the same coordinator, same play caller, and then next year you're going to get in that situation of looking at what is your next contract

going to look like for Baker Mayfield. I think they are going to pay a lot of attention to what they've seen with some of these other quarterbacks. What just happened over the last month with Carson, Wentz, and Jared Goff is going to inform a lot of thinking and just the process that these teams go through that have young quarterbacks because we are now leaving a world where you just signed him. You just signed the guy if he was good enough to win with. I think that those days are over. And I think that Baker-Mayfield is going to be a really interesting test case in how teams consider that position and when they

need to pay it, how much they need to pay it, all of that stuff. All right. Let's get to the next one here. The Pittsburgh Steelers, is this yours or mine? This is me. It's yours. Okay. So I want to know if the Steelers window is closed. Two days ago, my big question of it is Ben Rotheserberger coming back. But we have that question answered both the Steelers through Art Rooney and Ben Rothesberger through his agent, kind of cleared that up on Wednesday. They said they had kind of had conversations. They've mutually agreed that Ben Rothesberger will be coming back.

They just have to figure out the mechanics of that and making his contract tenable because he's not coming back at a $41 million. dollar cap hit. But he's going to be coming back. I think that might be, that might hinder your ability to build a roster. Ben Rothesburg has made $41 million. But I also have just have questions after watching Ben Rathesberger in 2020 and knowing the other changes that that roster is going to go through, like, who are they going to be

in 2021? And are they going to be a competitive team when they have as many impact free agents as they do? I mean, you already lost Pouncey to retirement. your free agent group, Juju Smith-Schuster, Bud Dupree, Alejandro Villanueva, Mike Hilton, James Connor. I mean, it's a lot of just starters

up and down your roster guys that they're not really going to probably be able to keep guys that are definitely going to leave. Like I don't see any situation really that Juju Smith-Schuster is back in Pittsburgh. Their offensive line, obviously, is going to go through some changes again. So I just, you know,

was what we saw in like November. November Steelers, when they were like the last undefeated team in the NFL. Was that like the end of it? Was this the peak of it? Or do they have just a little bit more of a championship caliber window with Ben Rathosberger before his era in Pittsburgh is officially over? My question is, how do you position this roster for a run, the best way you can't?

And you can't have a team that ranks 30th and offensive and rushing DVOA when this version of Ben Rathesberger is your quarterback. There's just no way to do that. If you want to be a defense first team, you're going to need a version of offense that doesn't require your aging, declining quarterback to do as much as he did last season. And I think that starts with figuring out

who their offensive line is going to be. I mean, you have from left to center, from left tackle to center, all those guys are free agents. So what are you going to do there? I mean, Kevin Dotson, a rookie from last season, he can play left guard for you, but you need to figure out left tackle,

you need to figure out center, and you don't have a lot of resources to do it. If this offensive line isn't a group that can push people around and allow this team to run the ball more effectively than it did last season, I think they're in trouble. Losing juju, I think, is fine. They have pass catchers there. That group, I think, is all right.

But the offensive line and then how they figure out the margins in the secondary, Mike Hilton is a free agent, Cameron Sutton, who played for them last year when they had some injuries as a free agent. Those are the pieces of their roster that now that all these guys are getting expensive, they're going to have to figure out. They're not as deeper as strong as they were because that's just how this works. When guys start getting priced out, you lose those little bits of your roster that kind of fortify everything. And that's the place to stealers have found themselves.

I also want to know if they're going to do anything this offseason to figure out with their long-term quarterback situation is going to be. It's been a mistake, I think, over the last couple of years by not doing more to prepare for the time that Ben Rathosberger is not your quarterback. So, you know, I don't know what that answer is, but I want to know if they are going to at least make a move this year to at least start planning for it. Because I don't think anybody is looking at Mason Rudolph as like, yep, that's a successor. This is our plan. At some point, it has to start. It seems like that's a low, that was a, what's a call? Low risk.

Yes, he is. Yep. He signed kind of a futures deal, I believe. Because I was looking at the depth chart. He's not on it. That's why I was confused. He did. He signed there like in early January.

So that's, I mean, that's like a real low risk type of move. But I don't, at some point you got to draft a guy, right? Or you got to like really make a move and free agency. So maybe that's the, you know, that's pushing it off next year. But this is year after year after year where they're not really doing anything significant to really plan for the future. So that tells me that, okay, we're going to make one more run at this. I'm just not sure if Rathusberger is capable of it. And if they are going to have a good enough roster elsewhere because of the.

financial situation that they're in to make it happen. Let's be clear about this. The best thing for the Steelers would have been Ben Rathesberger having some self-awareness and being like, you know what? And retiring. I had a good run. I had a great time. Thank you for the Super Bowls.

I'll see you at my Hall of Fame induction. He is not doing that. And I think that that has put them in kind of a rough spot. All right. Let's move on. Let's get to the AFC South. Why don't we start with the Indianapolis Colts, a team that their question has certainly changed over the last week or so.

So what in your mind is the biggest question facing the Well, I think it's related to the question from last week. The question last week would have been who is their quarterback. Now we know who their quarterback is. It's going to be Carson Wentz. So the big question is, can Frank Reich fix Carson Wentz? Related question, sub question is how broken is Carson Wentz? I think there will be some quarterback experts out there.

He'll say he's not as broken as maybe those of us who watched him play in 2020 think he is. but if if he is the same player he was in 2020, that's very bad news for the Colts. If he's the player he was in 2018, that's great news, right? That's great news for the Colts. I think the answer is probably going to be he's somewhere in the middle. He wasn't as bad as the worst moments of last year.

He was never as good as he looked in those best moments before he got hurt. in 2018. Was that 2018? Was that 2017? That was 2017. 2017. Excuse me. I'm getting all of my years mixed up here.

So I don't think he was ever as good as he maybe looked or his numbers looked in 2017. Maybe not quite as bad as he was at his worst moments last year. I think this will be a better situation for him, a guy who can really benefit from a change of scenery, from having a really good offensive line, from having a coach who believes in him, who he's going to have good communication with. I mean, I think one of the most interesting things. anytime a player leaves a place is the stories then that come out. I mean, some of these stories that I've been coming out of Philly since the trade happened

about just how much the relationship between Carson Wentz and Doug Peterson had deteriorated. So good situation for all involved for him to get out of there. I think it's going to be better for Philly that he's gone. This was probably the best possible landing spot. But unless Frank Wright can fix the issues, you know, the turnover issues, the decision-making issues that Wentz had in 2020 that led to him getting benched, the Colts aren't going to be able to take that next step. So I think it all starts and ends with Carson Wentz. Make no mistake. That trade is a bet on Frank Reich. That's what it is. It is a bet on Frank Reich's

ability to fix Carson Wentz. And if they don't make that trade, if they don't think that that's a real possibility, if they don't trust Frank Reich to do that. And if he can't be fixed, they're out of three and a two. They put him on the bench for the second half of the season, it's a risk that you thought was worth taking. You move on, you try to figure out your quarterback next year. And I think that is kind of the calculus that they did in their minds. So now, outside of the Carson Wentz-Frank-Rig part of this, I think the next question is, how do you finish the rest of that offense to give him the best chance to succeed? So they, even though the bones of the Colts roster is very good, especially literally

down the spine of their offense and defense, there are some needs on this team. Anthony Costanzo retires, you need a left tackle. We'll see what they do with Quentin Nelson. I've been on record that I would not move my all pro left guards and left tackle. I just, I've always hated that. But they need a left tackle. They also need some pass catchers. Ty Wyatt Hilton is hitting free agency.

You have Michael Pittman. Paris Campbell is an exciting player, but he's been constantly hurt. Can you find another threat on the outside? And guys like Xavier Rhodes are free agents. Justin's hitting free agency. You probably need an edge rusher and a corner. So now that the quarter, quarterback has been solved. This is a team that has like 40 or so million dollars in cap space.

How do they fill out the rest of this roster? Because while in our minds, they're a solid, good team, that's true. But they definitely have some holes they need to be worried about this offseason. If there's any general general manager, if I had a pick of one through 32, that I would trust this year in free agency where you might not be spending as much, where you're going to have to make some really kind of savvy veteran signings, it's Chris Ballard. I, you're 100% right that they have some really important holes that they have to fill. I think of just about anybody out there. I think Ballard is going to do a really good job of picking the right guys and getting really good value out of them.

Because that's how he's built this team. You know, that's really how they rebuilt this team since the moment that he got there. You know, recently in the last year or so, he's been able to make a little bit more of like the flashy moves, starting with the DeForest Buckner trade last year, the Phillip River signing. But before that, the couple seasons before that, it was. all about these really kind of smart value veteran signings, you know, doing a really good job of kind of scouting what that market looks like. So they're going to be a really interesting team to watch over the next month or so once this market opens and who they pursue, how they're

able to spend their money, and then which sort of guys they want to bring in to fill some of those holes on defense especially. They're slated to pick 21st right now. I'll bet you $100 right now. They do not make the 21st pick in the 2021 NFL draft. I think that's a safe bet. You think they, I think they'd move back. Yes. Like they might not even pick in the first round. I think they will recoup some of that draft capital they sent out in the Carson

Wentz trade. They'll find a way to turn the 21st pick into two other picks and find two contributors with those picks. I think that is the type of thing you can expect from this team. And that's why they have the bones of this solid roster with the financial wigger room that they also have. So I have all the faith in the world for them to figure this out. But there is some figuring it out.

there is some figuring out to do it. I think that's just worth acknowledging. All right. Let's move on to another playoff team here. The Tennessee Titans, this was mine. I just said, what's the plan on defense? Your 30th and past defense DVOA last year, it's not as if there's some schematic savior coming in. Shane Bowen, who was their de facto defensive coordinator last year, has been promoted to defensive coordinator this year. And whatever the plan was for this version of the Titans defense, it just hasn't worked. who do you think has the most expensive secondary in football in 2021 as it stands right now? Well, I'm going to assume that it's the Titans.

Number one in the NFL in secondary spending, and they were 30th in past defense DVA last year. So something has to change. Like this just isn't going to work. And it'll probably necessitate them moving on from someone like Adory Jackson, from someone like Malcolm Butler, Jackson. I think his deal becomes fully guaranteed in March. So they'd have to do it before free agency kick. in, but they're going to have to kind of play a show game with the resources here and move

them from one area into another because they spent a lot on corners and safeties. It didn't work. And they had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year by pressure rate. The only team that was worse was the Lions, which should surprise absolutely no one. So that's what they need to do. They need to figure out how to retool this defense, how to add some talent in the front seven, and they need to find some money in the couch cushions to do it. I'm really interested to see if they can make like a serious push for J.J. Watt. And if J.J. Watt would seriously consider them as he's kind of going through his options. He knows Brable. I mean, it's, I think that the connections make sense if he liked to play for Brable, which I don't know if he did or not. But they're a

playoff team. I think Nashville would be a fun city to live in if you're J.J. Watt. I think he'd have a great time. I mean, it makes sense on paper. If they land him, that's big. He's still a really good player. He's the exact type of thing they need within that defense. I've got some offensive questions, though, too. Lay it on me. I mean, I just think, like, the big fundamental question is, what do you do after Arthur Smith leaves? It's a totally reasonable question.

What does, what was his impact there? And it's crazy because a couple of years ago, when the floor left, we were like, oh, what's it going to be like without the floor? And what's Arthur Smith going to be like? And now we're wondering if Arthur Smith is an irreplaceable piece. But that offense was the reason that they were a contender last year and that they were competitive in almost every game that they were in. And now you pull that piece out.

So, you know, he seemed to have really kind of unlocked something out of Ryan Tannahill. Will that continue without Arthur Smith? Can you count on Derek Henry having 2,000 rushing yards again? Maybe you can. He seems like a guy might be able to rush for 2,000 yards a year forever, just the way that he's physically built. But, yeah, so I mean, some big questions there. But I think until they know who they are on defense,

until they can stop people, especially given, that the teams that they're going to have to play in the AFC, if they want to win the AFC and make the Super Bowl, you're going to have to stop somebody. You're going to have to stop Kansas City. You're going to have to stop Buffalo. You're going to have it have answers for Baltimore. You're going to have answers for Cleveland in that running game.

And right now they don't really have answers on defense. So I think you're right that that's where it has to start. And that needs to be John Robinson's number one priority in free agency and in the draft. That's the offseason question. I think the biggest 2021 question about the Titans is CAD Todd Downing and that new offensive staff get the most out of this offense in the same way that Dr. Smith did. But that's a question we'll have to ask on August 31st, not right now, because personnel-wise, I think defense is where they need to focus.

Obviously, Jono Smith, Corey Davis, those guys are hitting free agency, but with the needs they have on defense, I think it's going to be hard to justify bringing both of those guys back, certainly, but even one of those guys when you think about how much Corey Davis might cost. I mean, if Alan Robinson and Kenny Gallaudet and Chris Godman all get franchised, Corey Davis, because arguably the best free agent wide receiver on the market. And his price is going to go way, way up. And if you're the Titans, can you afford to give him the tag at $17 or so million

dollars? The answer is probably no. So it just feels like offensively, they're probably set with the person that they're going to have and defensively is where they're going to need to do some shuffling. All right. Let's move on to our next team here. Jacksonville Jaguars, owners of the number one pick in the draft. What is your number one question about their offseason?

So, I mean, it's kind of a big existential question. And it's an off-season question. It's a regular season question. It's will the Urban Meyer experiment work? And this was, I guess, maybe the splashiest hire of the off-season in terms of this coaching cycle, in terms of like a name, an interesting fit, kind of the outside-the-box type of hire. I don't know if it's going to work.

It might- It's going great so far. Exactly. Like, it might completely blow up. I mean, I think the learning curve of going from college to the NFL, having been a successful college coach and a very specific type of college coach, too, who controls every single aspect and doesn't have an owner to answer to. You don't have, you know, you don't have the same sort of boss in college football as you do in the NFL. The Chris Doyle hire was a disaster from start to finish. The idea to even bring him in in the first place, the way that they announced it, the way they thought they could.

slip it in, the explanation for his quote unquote resignation. The pure hubris, the pure hubris of doing it and just thinking, oh, no one will notice this. We'll just slip it right through in a press release with all of these other hires three days after the Super Bowl. I just can't even imagine trying. Whatever. That's neither here nor there, but I completely agree. And I think that that kind of spills into the player acquisition part of this, because we've never seen him.

have to do it. We have no idea what the plan is going to be. We have no idea what the strategy is going to be. I mean, Trent Balke has been a general manager before, but like you said, Urban Meyer is overseeing this. He's the guy calling the shots here. And what does that look like? Because I think as much as any other team in the NFL, obviously we know Trevor Lawrence is going to be the number one pick. Outside of that, they can do whatever they want. They have a second first round pick. They have all the cap space in the world. There really are no players on offense or defense that would stop you from adding a player at any position on the field. So what do they want to be and what shape does this roster take in year one under Urban Meyer? I think is a huge and fascinating

question. And what is the recruiting pitch? I mean, Urban Meyer is not, this is not going out on the road and going into South Florida and going into Texas and going into Ohio and sitting down on the living rooms with the best high school football players in the country. This is trying to get guys to come to a team that is in a multi-year rebuild. That's not, I mean, this team has a lot of holes. I mean, he keeps talking about, Urban keeps talking about how much speed he wants and he wants to be the fastest team in the NFL. Okay, well, they are not a fast team. They are very long away from being the type of team that Urban Meyer talks about his vision of what type of team he wants to build. do you know who the Jags top or highest paid player is?

Miles Jack? Andrew Norwell. That's right. Andrew Norwell. Guard Andrew Norwell. So, I mean, look, this is not a stacked roster by any means. And they can move out from him if they want to, freeing up even more tax base. So then Miles Jack would be the highest player, would be the highest paid player.

But, you know, I mentioned already a couple, you know, Cleveland in L.A. Chargers as places where veterans are going to want to go. if you're a 28-year-old's veteran, maybe you just wrapped up your second deal, maybe you were a cap casualty on your second deal, why are you going to Jacksonville? Are they going to have to overpay to get guys there? Are you going to want to go play for a guy who maybe is going to treat you like an 18 or 19-year-old? I don't, I just, I'm so curious to watch how this entire experiment is going to work. They did make a really good hire to lead their communications Department, Amy Palchick, who used to run the Texans, communications department.

She was caught up in the culture purge for whatever, whatever reason that was. That's a whole different conversation. He probably should have hired her first because the Chris Doyle situation would not have happened. If Amy had been on the press release if Amy had been in the building? I mean, I got, we could have another conversation about the Trent Balkei hire as well. Trent Balkey signing off on the Chris Doyle hire did not surprise. me at all. If we remember it all about the Niners teams that Trump bulky built and the type of guys

that he signed in San Francisco, wasn't exactly surprised. But yeah, big existential questions about how this whole Jags thing and the Urban Meyer experience is going to go. And I think another existential question, just an overall philosophical question with that recruiting pitch and the pitch of free agents, how aggressive do you want to be in free agency this year? How fast do you want this to happen? When you're picking first overall and you're mired in this sort of rebuild, I think patience is important, but we also are talking about a guy we think can be really good right away at quarterback. So do you want to try to surround him with pieces immediately and see if you can have a good offense from day one? And I think that's going to be one of the questions that they have to answer

here because they have the resources to add players, but what sort of players are they going to chase? All right. Last one here in the AFC South with the Texans. I mean, we know it, right? What happens with Sean Watson? It's like, there's nothing else to answer because what else can you do until you have an answer to that? I mean, they don't have anything else. They don't have any strengths of this roster. They don't do anything well.

So, I mean, it's just true. What would it be? So depressing. I'm looking at first. But that's what it's true. They literally do nothing well. They don't do PR well. They don't, like literally nothing.

They do nothing well. They do culture, though, right? Their culture is great. Willful is a free agent. So their receivers are Brandon Cooks and Randall Cobb. They have the worst defensive front in the NFL now that JJ Wan is gone. I don't, I guess they have some decent corners. Like literally they don't do anything well.

So this team should just be rebuilding. The problem was, I think some of the contracts they handed out last year, both to free agents and guys in-house, preclude them from doing that. So now you can't move on. You're stuck with some of these. guys. I just have absolutely no idea what the overall vision or plan or direction that Nick Casera wants to follow is going to end up being. But the number one question they have to answer before exploring any of that is what they do with Deshaun Watson. And even though it's an offseason question, we're not going to know the answer to that, I would assume, for months.

Because I think it's going to be a prolonged standoff because the Texans understand they shouldn't want to trade him. They are going to have to be pushed into a corner to do this. And I think that's can require a little bit of time to see how all of this develops. And I think Deshaun Watson might be willing to push them into the corner. I certainly hope he is. It'd be fun as how to watch. From like a pure like just chaos perspective. Absolutely.

I mean, one of the defining storylines over the last couple years in the NFL has been player empowerment and taking back control over their careers, their contracts. There's so few guys that actually have leverage to do this sort of thing. And if Deshawn Watson is willing to to miss games and to sit out and to set out a whole year even, which is something that is still on the table, I mean, that is landscape changing for the NFL and for the players that would follow him. I just, I still just can't believe how bad the Texans have effed this whole thing up. It's amazing. 13 months ago, they were division champions. They were leading the chiefs in the division round of the playoffs.

not even 13 months ago, right? 13 months ago, 14 months ago, it's wild. And now they are the laughing stock of the NFL. It's just amazing how quickly things can blow up and how poorly you can mismanage a situation. I will say just on a side note. Having two universally beloved players ask to be released or traded? It's always good.

Unbelievable, right? I mean, it's almost unprecedented. I mean, guys have been asking for their releases more and have been able to force trades more recently. You know, more and more, it's becoming more common. But to have, to go from Deshaun Watson, and giving him this massive contract saying you are the face of our franchise for, you know, the best player they've ever had outside, your best offensive player they've ever had.

I don't want a slight multi-time defensive player of the year, JJ. Yeah, we, just as a general thing, I think that everyone needs to like step back and understand how good JJ Watt was. Like, with, I mean, 2012, 2013, J.J. Watt. Holy shit, man. Yeah. He won three defensive players, three defensive player of the year awards. the only other person to do that is Lawrence Taylor.

JJ Watt is one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the NFL. I've been on record that I voted for him for MVP one of the years. In 2012, he should have won it because Adrian Peterson did win it. JJ Watt was a better player in 2012 than Adrian Peterson was. I will stand by this. A quarterback should win it every year. But if we were going to give it to somebody who wasn't a quarterback that season, even though Peyton Manning should have won it, then I would have given it to JJ Y.

All right, let's move on to the AFC East. let's start with the Patriots. I don't know why I put them at the top. I think I just reflexively do that. This is yours. What is your biggest offseason question facing the Patriots? I assume I will know the answer. So who's the quarterback?

I think it's a good one. I mean, the Patriots spent 20 years where they didn't have to answer this question. So now they're going to have to answer it every year. Yeah, now they're down here with the rest of us. Yeah, exactly. They're going to have to see how the rest of the NFL or the most of the NFL has lived for the last two decades. And wondering year after year after year who your quarterback is going to be. Our Patriots beatwriter, Jeff Howe wrote a really interesting story,

kind of a what I'm hearing story earlier this week. That's really kind of really insightful as to like what's going on with the Patriots. It's been really interesting. They've been in the market. They've been out there shopping. They've been, you know, checking in on Carson Wentz and on Matthew Stafford. Marcus Marietta, I think, could be there in the mix. But I guess, though, related to the who is the quarterback question.

is are they going to be willing to spend on a quarterback? Because that is not what Bill Belichick seems to want to do. Even when Tom Brady was his quarterback, he never seemed super inclined to like pay him a premium. You know, he was never the top paid quarterback. And now they haven't, they inquired on the quarterback market, but they haven't really been legit contenders because they haven't been willing to spend. And so now are they going to be willing to spend once it gets a little bit, further into this process and maybe they get a little desperate.

Will they be willing to spend in free agency? Will they be willing to spend via draft capital to move up in the first round if they want to get one of the top quarterbacks? Because they're not going to be able to get one where they're out right now. I think they're in the mid-teens. Are they 15? Yeah, right around there. I believe.

So at some point, though, they're going to have to spend to get a quarterback. I mean, they got Cam Newton on the cheapest, most ridiculous, what it was like, a million-dollar deal. Last year, he could still be their quarterback next year. But so, yeah, who's it going to be? Cam Newton, Marcus Mariotta, Andy Dalton. The Jimmy Garapolo thing, I think, still is maybe kind of percolating out there, although the Niners keep saying Jimmy's our guy, Jimmy's our guy, Jimmy's our guy, until, you know, until they try for somebody else.

Mack Jones in the draft. Yeah, just tons of questions then. And then obviously you've got to. It's so interesting because this is so, it's such uncharted territory that there's just no way to know. It reminds me of last year a little bit, but at least last year, they had shown that they wanted to keep this group together, right? They franchised Tooney. It was like, oh, okay, they're trying to figure this out with a new quarterback. Now they've got like $60 million in cap space. Tuni and David Andrews are free agents. I just have no idea what this team is or what they want to be

because we've never seen them in this position before. So I just, are they going to spend a bunch on a free agent wide receiver because they have the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL. What does the front seven of their defense look like? I mean, it's just a really bizarre place to be with the Patriots. And I don't know how to think about it, really. Yeah, I mean, will Bill, will Bill a check for, you know, however old he is and how long he's been there, is he just going to change the way that he builds a roster and the way that he spends money and the type of free agents that he goes after?

Probably not. I don't know. I don't know. It's very interesting. million dollars in free agency before. Yeah, it's going to be really interesting. But yeah, I think it starts and ends with the quarterback. But I just can't see them being this like super big spender just because we've never

seen them really do that. You know, it's been so rare that they've made the splashy move to get the to get the guy, to get like the big free agent. You know, they're the classic like, you know, bring a guy back, sign a guy for a short term deal um you know it's like that the kyle van noy type of free agent signing it's not this um god it like when was the last time they made like a really splashy like big trade was it don't rufus probably stephan gilmore yeah step fine sorry that's definitely go more they just signed him in the market but that's really the only one that i can think so rare right so yeah i mean

i just have a ton of just like philosophical questions about who they're going to be and how they're going to be built and what bill bell check is going to do And quarterback is the big one. Where's your money at? Who do you think their quarterback's going to be? I really don't know. I mean, it seems like this could be like a Marcus Mario-a-type destination if they come up empty with everyone else.

But I have no idea. I have no idea what they want to be or what type of problems they're trying to solve or any of that. It was just, it really is a mystery. I mean, they could go in so many different directions. And I just, I have no predictions whatsoever. I know that's not interesting. But all right, let's get to our next one here.

I had the Buffalo Bills. I think this one, again, pretty simple. Where does the final boost come from? How do you get over the top? And, you know, this is a team that is pretty much set. You know, they don't have a ton of cap space. They can create some flexibility with some moves, you know, moving on from a couple of those short-term signings that Brandon Bean tends to make.

So is Vernon Butler, Quentin Jefferson, guys like that they can just move on from, they could create some space that way. J.J. Watt is another, you know, a guy who has been brought up with this. That's the type of piece they need. So offensively, it feels like they're pretty much set. The right side of their offensive line is hitting free agency. So what do they do at right tackle and right guard now that Feliciano and Dary Williams are going to be gone? That's something I think they could probably figure out.

On defense, I just think they need a jolt anywhere. Matt Milano is hitting the market. Do they go out and try to find another linebacker? What do they do at their second cornerback spot? Do they need another defensive piece on the front seven? I think they do need another edge rusher. Do they need someone else on the interior if they're moving on from some of those guys? So they have the flexibility to kind of play with this a little bit,

which, again, I think speaks to how good of a GM Brandon Bean is and how he's built this roster, the fact that they're really good, but they're not locked into anything. So how do they use that flexibility to kind of add one or two more defensive pieces to really take them over the top? I think that's the biggest question for that. And this kind of like Cleveland, or kind of at Cleveland and I think at Indianapolis, I have a lot of confidence in the staff that they have in place there, with the program that they put in place, the track record that Brandon Bean has.

And we talked about this, I think, on our last pod before we took our break, there's going to be, it's going to be really interesting to watch how teams approach this offseason. Because the cap is going to drop. It's probably going to be 182 to 183, 183 million. That's probably about where it's going to come in. I don't think it's going to quite get to 185. The floor now is 180 million. But really what matters is cash and who's going to be willing to spend.

And I think the bills are positioned to be one of those teams that they can spend. And they're going to be an attractive destination. I would not be shocked if Brandon Bean pulls off if he looks for trademark, if he's on the trade market, similar to what he did with the Stefan Diggs deal last year, just in terms of being willing to make the big move and pay now to win now. because I think they're close, right? I mean, they were in the AFC championship game last year. They felt very similar. Nate Taylor, our Chiefs writer, said this multiple times,

and I think he was dead on, that the 2020 Bills felt very similar to the 2018 Chiefs. Absolutely. And that team that was kind of just ready to ascend. You saw kind of a transcendent or transformational year out of your young quarterback. So they're not far away. So I think they're going to be one of these teams

where it's going to be really interesting to watch how they spend their money, which sort of veteran free agents they're going to attract. I'd love to see JJ Watt there. That's my ideal destination for Watt, even more than the sentimental pick of going to Green Bay. I just would love to see him there. He's exactly the type of player that they need. I think he would thrive there. They've just become, Buffalo has just really become this kind of landing spot for guys in the second phase of their career.

Really, just like a really well-run organization where you can bring guys in from all over. guys who maybe weren't successful or had been cut before or guys that were really good and just needed a new spot. So very, very excited to watch their offseason plan. I mean, if you can get JJ Watt for essentially the Mario Addison price that you're already paying right now and just swap those two guys out and then see if you can find one more piece in the secondary, now we're cooking. Which is what, about $10 million a year? It's about $10 million. And he's made plenty of money. So I don't think that's going to be the driving force with all of this.

So if you give them a two-year deal with a bunch to sign and you have a $10 million cap hit this year and you find one or two more young pieces on the back seven, it's like, all right. That is a fun team. But that's the question. And just like you said with the Chiefs, it's like, all right, what do we need to do to break through? The Chiefs, it was a couple signings. It was changing their defensive coordinator. You don't need to do a ton.

But that little bit of tinkering is what's going to make the difference between being a really exciting team and one that could potentially actually win the Super Bowl. All right, let's move on. Next one here. Miami Dolphins. What's your question? So I want to know how much they're going to spend and how active they're going to be in their free agent market.

Because last year they spent something like $200 million. I mean, they were so active, really accelerated their rebuilding process. So I think it went faster than I think almost any of us were expecting for them last year in terms of the deals that they handed out, how quickly they, in terms of, to Tua Taga-Valala Loa into the starting lineup. So now I want to know kind of what is the next phase in that. The secondary question is, are they happy with Tua? Could they move on from Tua?

Are they going to maybe get in this to Sean Watson sweepstakes? I think it's going to be Tua. I think it is going to be moving forward with Tua as their guy. And then what are they going to do? How active are they going to be to just kind of build this team around him? They need some significant upgrades at the skill position players, wide receiver being has to be the top priority if two is going to be your quarterback moving forward new offensive coordinators you know we'll get into the scheme stuff later but really curious

exactly you know how you build around um how you build around too are you going to have a more aggressive passing game are you going to have some upgrades at wide receiver because they absolutely have to they have to get better at that position they need some running back help um upgrades there so i think that's just i just want to know how they're going to spend their money they haven't been shy I mean, they've been willing to spend. I mean, they handed out a shit ton of contracts last year. They obviously don't have quite as much money to spend as they did last year. They enter the 2020 season with a ton.

Yeah, I mean, they're right in kind of the middle of the pack. So they have a lot of flexibility. They're going to be a destination. People are going to want to go play there. There's a lot of attractive things that are going on in Miami that attracts NFL free agents, football-wise and personal life wise. Otherwise. Otherwise.

otherwise that people will want to go there. I think a lot of people will want to play for Brian Flores as well. So I just want to know how they're going to spend their money and what kind of the overall philosophy is going to be in building now that they're really, you know, they're not in rebuild mode anymore. So how do you shift from rebuild mode to trying to become a contender mode? To me, if they're not going to get Deshaun Watson, how do you add past catchers and explosiveness to the offense?

And I mean, they could do that a couple different ways. if I'm the Dolphins, I am trading the third overall pick 100 times out of 100. There is no single player at that spot that I think would be worth the package that you could likely get from another QB needy team. It's the same way when the Colts had the third overall pick and the Sam Darnel trade when they already had Andrew Luck. You trade that every single time because even if you think you're quote unquote close, I just think the return you can get on that is going to be so huge that it would be worth it.

Like let's say you trade that with Carolina and you move. down to eight. What past catcher or a couple past catchers would be there at three that aren't going to be there at eight? Like you might as well move down. I still think when they are the perfect Watson team. Like in every single way, he wants to go there and they could do. The problem with trading for Deshaun Watson is if you had to give up so much to get him that now the rest of your roster is bare. But if they traded the third overall pick, the 18th overall pick, their 22 first round pick and maybe like another third or something like that if that was the bulk of the package you could do that you could do that you wouldn't even blink and trading the third pick

back to the texas would just be so sweet it'd be so so so beautiful and that to me i still think that should be their mindset can they said laramie tonsel back too just throw them in there why not if you can do that and i think they're the team they could do it feel good about the price and feel like they're not stripping the rest of their roster so far down that they're setting Deshaun up to fail. So I still think that's going to be a storyline until it's not, at least until the draft. But if they don't go that route, I think it's just a matter of how can we add talent both up front and in the past catching spots because their offensive line while it was young and there were a few draft picks on there.

Again, I don't think there are many of those guys outside of their first round pick last season that should stop them from trying to upgrade their. Ted Carrars is a free agent, all of that kind of stuff. All right. Last one here, the New York Jets. I think it's just how they build up the offense. And obviously that starts with quarterback. You know, we've talked about this a lot on this show. I just think it makes sense to start with, start over.

Pick a guy at number two, whether that's Fields, Zach Wilson, whoever it is. You pick him, don't think twice about it. You trade Donald. You have a clean break. And then after that, use your resources to build up the offensive line and try to find past catchers. You know, again, there are teams that it's more. more complicated than saying go chase Alan Robinson, Corey Davis,

Will Fuller. I think this is the sort of team with $67 million in cap space and a defined need. They should be shopping in that area of the store. And if that's what they're going to do and they add that, you have Denzel Mims, you figure out a tackle, you might want to pair with Mackay Beckton. They signed a lot of guys on the offensive line last year,

but they were short-term deals. They were similar to the sort of deals Brandon Bede handed out when he was trying to remake his offensive line. So even though you made some signings, you're flexible in that area if you want to add some more guys, if you want to cut some guys. So that to me is it. How do you build this offense? That doesn't mean they can't spend on defense.

You know, they have enough resources, enough room to make some moves over there as well. But I think you just have to make sure you set up whoever you draft second overall to not fail in his first year. You have to protect him enough and give him enough weapons to give him a fair shot if he's going to be your starter. So my other question with the Jets, I'm with you and all of this stuff about trying to turn them into a functional offense and how quickly you can do that. My kind of bigger existential question is, is how quickly can Robert Sala institute a cultural change and turn this team into a team that believes that they can win, can teach them how to win. You know, I think we've seen examples of getting the right coach in there and how quickly that can work. And I want to believe that Sala is going to be that guy. I mean, I just think things were pretty toxic from a player coach standpoint over the last couple years,

that he has the potential to be the right fit and to really just change the way that that team operates. I want to see how they can do that in an offseason. I mean, Kevin Stapansky really provided the blueprint of how you can do that in an offseason where you're not actually face-to-face with your players. I think Ron Rivera did that in Washington as well. So it's not going to be easy for solid, but I think, you know, while they're retooling this roster and overhauling what the offense is going to look like. Sala just has to turn this into a functional, happy, non-toxic place to work.

And they can really start over there. I mean, you can have a fresh batch of players to kind of graph that culture onto if you want. I mean, the only foundational pieces they really have are the guys that Joe Douglas drafted last year. So Ashton Davis, Denzel Mims, Mackay backed in that first draft class that they had. You have Quinn and Williams who's still there that I'm assuming you like. We'll see what happens with Marcus May who's hitting free agency. Connor McGovern, they gave a decent amount of money to the center. Other than that, they can move on from pretty much anybody.

They can start over here if they want to. And I'll be curious what shape that takes as they start to throw these resources around. Multiple first-round picks, all of the cap space that they have, everything like that. So what the Jets plan looks like, personnel-wise, culturally, everything, I think, is absolutely the biggest question facing them. All right. That's all we got, right? It better be. I mean, whoever's, I apologize to whoever is listening to the start of the podcast and they heard me say, let's keep it to 45 minutes and looks and sees it at an hour of 15. But I hope it was worth it. It was really fun to be back. We've got some fun ideas coming up because it's going

to get weird and crazy and wild and there's going to be a lot of news happening and we'll hopefully have some smart, educated takes on it. Yeah, I remember. I want to say it was Bill Simmons told me when I was young. It was like 10 years ago now and we were planning stuff. He told me 32 of anything is a lot. So anytime you're going through the entire league, however long you think it's going to take you, it's going to take you a lot longer than that.

And that's what happened over the last two days with these podcasts. Hey, look, we got a lot of questions. A lot of questions. Yeah, it's fine. I think it was worth doing. Again, it was a table setter, get us ready for the off season. Speaking of table setting, we have our schedule for the off season is now set.

So we're going to be coming to you guys on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. A little bit different than the regular season schedule, but recording on Sundays felt silly when we don't have to. And we wanted to give you something going into the weekend. So that's where we're going to be for the next several weeks. Little tweaks here and there when it comes to free agency reaction, stuff like that. But that's going to be how we're coming to you from now until the draft. So be on the lookout next Tuesday for our next show. That's going to be me and Sheel breaking down his top 50 free.

agents. And then we're going to be coming to you with plenty of free agent content after that. It will not be slowing down anytime soon. So 50, 50 of anything is a lot. We are not going to talk about all 50 players. We are going to talk about some selections from his top 50 free agents. Look, I would listen to all 50. Until then, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice.

I very much appreciate that. Please subscribe to the athletic. You can read Shields top 50 free agents. All of the great work our beatwriters are doing. We just did our beat writer mock draft this week. There's tons of indispensable stuff as it relates to NFL free agency on The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Highly recommended.

I'll be back Tuesday with Sheal. Until then, enjoy the weekend. Great talking to you. We'll talk to you later. This was The Athletic Football Show.