The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The five distinct types of quarterbacks that win Super Bowls

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

The surest path to a Lombardi Trophy is to have a superstar quarterback, but it isn't the only way to win a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes doesn't hoist that thing every year. Fran Duffy joins Robert May...s to examine the distinct types of quarterbacks who win Super Bowls on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Fran on Twitter: @EaglesXOsSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube3:07 The superstars11:15 The studs on rookie deals27:41 The rookie-deal QBs with great teams around them40:28 The very good veteran QBs with great teams around them51:48 The Kirk Cousins Conundrum54:43 The Kyle Shanahan Exception Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:03 This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, Eagles on-air talent, hosted the Eagle Eye in the Sky podcast, host of the Journey to the Draft podcast, someone's work, especially if you were an Eagles fan, that you should certainly be checking out.
Starting point is 00:00:31 Fran Duffy, Fran, thank you very much for joining me, my friend. Yeah, absolutely, man. I really appreciate it. This is going to be a fun conversation, obviously extremely topical, not just this year, but every year, everybody always wants to talk about quarterbacks. So excited for you having on. So what we're going to do today is we're going to talk about the types of quarterbacks who can win a Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:00:51 And we're going to do it kind of looking backwards and forwards, the types of quarterbacks who've won Super Bowls in the past and how those archetypes apply to some of the teams that we're looking at as contenders or playoff teams this season. And I wanted to have you on in particular because I think that Jalen Hurts part of this conversation, is instructive, it's informative. I think that there are some debates about maybe which bucket he would fall in. So we'll get to that in a little bit. But let's start with the obvious ones, right? So the types of quarterbacks that can win a Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:01:24 you have the alien quarterbacks. Like the best quarterbacks in the league are absolutely capable of winning Super Bowls. You don't need to look very far to find examples of that. Patrick Mahomes has already won a Super Bowl. We have so many of these guys that have done it over the years. And I think that in this group, they're really only two guys to me. There's just Josh Allen and there's just Patrick Mahomes. And these are guys that just by virtue of their presence, you're going to be a Super Bowl contender.
Starting point is 00:01:51 You know, in what was supposed to be kind of a soft reset season for the Chiefs after they traded literally one of the most valuable players in the NFL away, they still are number one in the league in the paper dropback. They have the best offense in football. And that pretty much is enough to make you a contender. I wanted to look back at this and just see if you led your conference in EPA per dropback during a season as a quarterback, where did your team finish in the playoff standings? Sure. And if you go back about 10 years, all the way back to the 2012 season, pretty much every single year, if you did that in the AFC or the NFC, you got to buy. That's all you needed was to be the best passing offense in your respective conference.
Starting point is 00:02:34 The Packers did it last year. The Chiefs were the number two seed in the 2021 season after doing it. 2020, the Packers got a buy. The Chiefs got to buy. 2019, the Ravens get a buy. The Saints go 13 and 3. They have the best record in the conference. So the only exceptions to that are the 2015 Broncos,
Starting point is 00:02:51 which have one of the best defenses we've literally ever seen in the history of the NFL. The 2013 Seahawks who have one of the best defenses we've literally ever seen in the history of the NFL. And the 2014 Steelers, Ben Rathusperger led the NFL. AFC and E paper dropback, they were the three seed. That's living in a world where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are playing extremely well and we're the top two seeds in the AFC. So those two guys just by being there essentially make you a Super Bowl contender. That's enough.
Starting point is 00:03:20 Yeah. And I think it's just funny to talk about this because to me, I feel like the dynamic and the discussion around the quarterback position has changed so much just in even the last half decade. And I think a lot of that has been with ushering in the two, the two super humans that you referred to, right, ushering in the era of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, getting away
Starting point is 00:03:40 from Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. And it's funny, over on the Eagle Line of Sky podcast, over the years, Ben Fennell and I and Greg CoSell, we've had these discussions and laughed about how the presence of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the mic'd up segments that have been released on those two guys in the early 2000s, the mid-2000s, ruined quarterback evaluation for like a decade plus,
Starting point is 00:04:02 just like set it back. Because at the end of the day, what teams were doing was like, oh, well, we're going to, we're going to chase that. And so, you know, hey, Blaine Gabbard, Jake Locker, all the first round picks to come out, we're just going to roll the ball to you and say, all right, kid, like, drive the car. When my sister, you know, first taught me how to try and drive, I was 15 years old, and she was like, put me behind the wheel. She was like, okay, go.
Starting point is 00:04:22 And I was like, I don't know the difference between the gas pedal and the brake pedal. You know, like, teach me what I'm doing here. That's kind of where we were at where in that era of football and that era of discussing the NFL, you know, QB friendly was such. like this naughty term. It was like a dirty word. Like, oh, like college offenses, that's, that's not projectable to the NFL. And since that point, it's like trickled up. And to the, now it's, we've changed the discussion about how these guys win, what you could do to help them out. It's what makes this so fun to discuss on a yearly basis. And I also think that we should take
Starting point is 00:04:53 these guys as an exception to how you build a Super Bowl team. Yeah. I'm guilty of this. I remember sitting in Mitchell Schwartz's kitchen last year, the day after the bills played the chiefs in that division around game. And I was sitting at that table with that game just so fresh in my mind as we were doing a podcast together. And it's like, if you can't, you have to try to get one of these guys because you have to compete with them, year in and year out. And if you don't have one of these guys, you're always going to be at a disadvantage. But now with some time and some space and some perspective, you kind of sit back and think, there are only so many of those guys. Like, there are only two of them. And, you know, Justin Herbert is also unbelievably talented.
Starting point is 00:05:31 and we'll talk about guys in that range a little bit later. But I think that chasing this type of quarterback and just saying if we can get a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen will be consistently competitive every single year, it's a fool's errand. There's only two Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen type players in the NFL. And I think that the rest of this conversation is particularly useful because we're going to dig into the other types of guys that you can build around, that you can build with, that you can build a contender out of at the position. Yeah, and the thing that's instructive too about that is with both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, things were a little bit differently out of the gate for both guys.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Patrick Mahomes was first in EPA per dropback, his first year as a starter in 2018, and Josh Allen was 31st, right? And then the even year two, Josh Allen was still outside the top 20 and Mahomes was number two. And so just kind of looking at to both of those guys and their pathway to start him definitely was a little bit different with Mahomes. It happened right away. Josh was a little bit more of a slow burn. And let's say Josh Al, it probably wouldn't have been. this way. But let's say hypothetically, Josh Allen doesn't play his rookie year in 2018. And in 2019, his second year, he gets dropped into an offense with Andy Reid, Tyree Kill, and that entire
Starting point is 00:06:42 offensive infrastructure. I'm sure that would have looked a lot different. So the pathways to how you get there have been different. But both of these guys, just by virtue of being there, are going to give you probably a top three passing offense. You look at where the bills are this season, their second and EPA per dropback. They have what I would probably say is a below average offensive line, even if you're being generous, it's a middle of the road offensive line. They had an offensive coordinator change this year. They're fine. They're elite. They're explosive. That's what they're going to be just because he's there. The one difference that I think is important to point out, Alan's extension hasn't even kicked in yet. Yep. Which I forgot about
Starting point is 00:07:20 until you start looking at these numbers. He's only making 16 million or so against the cap this year. That goes to 40 million next year. And you have got guys on that team, Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmonds, set to be free agents. They're already about $4 million over the 2023 projected cap as things currently stand. But even when that number explodes, I remember talking to somebody in the Bill's front office to summer about it. And they weren't even looking at the Allen extension as an impediment to team building. They actually appreciated the fact that they had some certainty with it being a six-year
Starting point is 00:07:54 deal. They're like, oh, we know what he's going to make. That's nice. Now we can just figure out how to build around it. When you have guys at this level, that's all it is. It doesn't matter that Mahomes is making $40 million a year. As long as you know that's what it is and you can figure out the pieces, the chiefs are 22nd or in defensive EPA and dead last in special teams EPA this year.
Starting point is 00:08:16 And they are tied for the best record in the AFC because Patrick Mahomes is there in the offense is what it is. So these guys are going to figure it out. And that's the thing is that it's like a champagne problem, right? You understand that that's the price of doing business. When you do find that guy, it's great to try. and take advantage when they're on that rookie deal. But your whole goal is to find that guy, pay him the boatload of money and be in contention from thereafter.
Starting point is 00:08:37 And I think when you've got that player and you understand, hey, this is where at this point, this line of demarcation is where it's going to cut off, that changes the team building strategy a little bit in terms of where you're going to try and, you know, find the margins, where you're still able to capitalize on bringing in talent via the draft versus free agency. What kind of free agency shopping are you doing? Are you trying to acquire guys via trade? All of those different things. trying to kick in. But yeah, to me, like, that's why trying to talk about this position in
Starting point is 00:09:05 particular is so fun because it changes so drastically from the guy on the rookie deal to just what you said. I mean, Derek Carr has a second round pick. Then all of a sudden, he's the number one paid quarterback. That dichotomy changes so, so fast. And then three years after that, it's like, oh, like Derek Carr is now the 12th highest quarterback paid in the market. It just changes the conversation every single year. So let's talk about a couple of those guys in rookie deals because you have another bucket of these guys is the young star quarterbacks on rookie contracts, which there are a couple of. That's what Joe Burrow is.
Starting point is 00:09:39 Joe Burrough is making $9.8 million against the cap in 2022. That's 18th among quarterbacks. And sometimes when you look at just cap hits, there's some funny business going on. Dax is artificially low this year. Some other quarterbacks have been restructured. Some have it. With Burrow, that's just what it is. It's been no restructure.
Starting point is 00:09:56 And he's on his rookie contract. He's making $10 million. And he is third in EPA per dropback combined over the last two seasons after Allen and Mahomes. He's just a star quarterback making drastically below market value. And even though their team isn't on the same level, I would also put Justin Herbert in a similar spot and kind of a similar range to what Joe Burrow is just as an archetype of quarterback. He's making $8 million or whatever he is this year. He was fantastic last season. He's getting better and better this year as he's gotten more help.
Starting point is 00:10:28 So that's kind of the second grouping that I would start is those two guys with those types of deals. Yeah. And I think at the end of the day, you know, and this is, I think this applies to every tier of quarterback. But it's certainly when you're talking about, you know, this exercise of going through. All right, who are the young like first round picks, like big names and we'll go through a bunch of those guys. I think one of the things that I've just noticed thematically looking at the introduction to these players is that you're seeing, number one, teams try to embrace continuity. If that offensive coordinator, if that offensive, you know, that Petri dish is not working in year one, all right, we're going to change gears, but find somebody that can stick with this player and really kind of coach him up. You've talked about that in terms of like head coach hiring and, you know, just trying to find that incubation system for a young quarterback.
Starting point is 00:11:13 And you look at Joe Burrow and there's been plenty of continuity on that coaching staff with what they're trying to do. And at the end of the day, you're trying to find what is it that this player does really, really well. and let's find ways to always incorporate that into the weekly game plan. And Joe Burrow, that certainly is something that has stood out. Lamar Jackson, that is certainly something that has stood out. And you go down the list of these guys that were on those rookie contracts. And it's all about saying, okay, let's find continuity number one. And then let's really kind of lean into this guy's strengths.
Starting point is 00:11:43 And it's not always going to be the same for every player across the board. We all get so excited about all the different tools that teams have at their disposal with empty sets and play action and screens and RPO's. everybody's built a little bit differently. But it is interesting that when you get to a guy like Joe Burrow, well, why is it that he's having the success that he's having? Because if you look at like RPO percentage and how often they run the ball and all the different little tools that we have at our disposal, they're not at the top of that list.
Starting point is 00:12:09 But they're always finding ways to be able to put him in position to succeed. And getting a guy that he's familiar with and Jemar Chase going into year two, that certainly can help matters as well. It's a great example. And the Bengals are kind of a fascinating study. team construction because you get the number one pick with Joe Burrow, but you're bad the second in his rookie season. And he also gets hurt.
Starting point is 00:12:30 So you stumble into a top five pick and you get to draft Jamar Chase with the fifth overall pick. The year you drafted Joe Burrow, you had the 33rd pick. You got T. Higgins who went later than he probably should have. So now you have these two receiving options to pair with this guy. And then you combine that with the flexibility his contract gives you. only the Steelers are spending more against the 2022 cap on their defense than the Cincinnati Bengals.
Starting point is 00:13:00 DJ Reader, Trey Hendrickson, Wuzier, Mike Hilton, all on sizable free agent deals. They franchise Jesse Bates without even really having to think about it. It's like, oh, there's $13 million from Jesse Bates, not a big deal. They brought back BJ Hill and free agency. They could build most of their offensive line through free agency, even though it's not huge deals. It's not crazy spending, but they're able to do a lot of that stuff because they have the flexibility afforded them with the contract that Burrow gives them. Yeah, and whether that happens in the draft, like what the Bengals did or if it happens on
Starting point is 00:13:30 the trade market, like what we saw with Philly and with Miami this offseason, getting Tyree Kill and A.J. Brown, just finding ways to put that quarterback in position where even like for the guys that are completely unproven, and we'll talk about the guys that are kind of at that stage now where teams are trying to find, we're at that crux where, hey, we're going into year two or we're going into year three. And we still don't really know, well, let's put us or put ourselves in position where at the end of this year, we're going to know. So, hey, we're going to get Jamar Chase, we're going to pair him with T. Higgins. We have Tyler Boyd.
Starting point is 00:13:59 We're going to go, we're going to make sure we've got a serviceable tight end. We've got Joe Mixing in the run game. We're going to know if Joe Burroughs got the goods or not by the end of year two. And certainly he came through with that last season. The Chargers, it's funny because they're in a really similar situation team building wise and actually kind of went about it in a similar way that the Bengals did. Yep. There's sixth and cap spending on defense this season.
Starting point is 00:14:21 So they used a lot of that excess resources that they had on defense. The same kind of thing happened with them in the 2021 draft. They were better in Herbert's rookie season because Herbert was healthy and he played really well. They went seven and nine. But they still landed an all pro level player at a high level position in the first round of that draft. And Rayshon Slater, it just hasn't all come together as well as it has for the Bengals. I think the Bengals have done a fantastic job sorting through and establishing what their plan on offense was going to be this year.
Starting point is 00:14:54 I think they've kind of reacted and changed in a way that's been conducive to their quarterback success in a way that the Chargers haven't really. And I also think that it's little things. Talk about that 2020 draft where the Bengals got T. Higgins with a 33rd overall pick. The Chargers traded their second and third round picks in that draft to move up for Kenneth Murray. It's just those little tiny differences in team building between what the Bengals have done and what the Chargers have done.
Starting point is 00:15:20 And I think that kind of helps explain the gap between where those two teams are right now. Yeah. And, you know, hitting on some of those, you know, mid-round picks that that's that Cincinnati was able to do, whether it was on offense or defense and looking at some of the acquisitions that the Chargers made for Herbert going into year three, going into this season, that either haven't panned out because of the, the fit or due to injury. And that's the thing. Cincinnati or the Chargers have just been plagued with injuries as, as we come to expect with that team over the years. But I think when you look at, you know, that kind of building process, it is really interesting because it does get you again, kind of on the margins where those small, those small missteps can really come back to haunt you. And really for some of the teams, I think back to like 2017 when the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. And, you know, that was Carson went to his second year. You know, Nick Foles was bought in almost as like an afterthought that summer leading in. But then you look at all of the other players that were also bought in, the Patrick Robinson's of the world, the Chris Longs of the world.
Starting point is 00:16:18 where it's a one-year deal, it's a veteran to come in, and those guys had huge, huge impacts. And they weren't huge swings. They weren't like high gambles from a free agency standpoint, but those were able to hit. And when you're able to hit on a high number of those plays, the more swings you take, the more chances you have at hitting a home run,
Starting point is 00:16:34 I think when you look at the way that that team in 2017 was able to capitalize, it's interesting kind of comparing that to the Chargers here this year. You look at the history of Super Bowl winners. there actually haven't been that many of these guys that we're talking about, these star rookie contract quarterbacks that have ended up winning Super Bowls. Russell Wilson's obviously the best example, but Russell Wilson won his Super Bowl in 2013 when he really wasn't carrying that team. They weren't great because their passing offense was great in the same way that a team like
Starting point is 00:17:12 the Chargers or a team like the Bengals has to be right now. We know what that defense was. 2015 is probably the best example. Cam Newton had the 15th highest cap it among quarterbacks in 2015 when he won the MVP and the Panthers went to the Super Bowl. Other than that, I mean, Burrow last year, but I think that that's a team that really wasn't as good as some of these other contenders that were talked about. They weren't nearly the team that they are right now. A couple of the other rookie quarterback deals that you're talking about, those are teams that kind of lifted those. quarterbacks to Super Bowls, the Eagles in 2017, the Rams in 2018. So it's funny that even though
Starting point is 00:17:51 this is the most valuable thing you can have is this star level quarterback on a rookie deal, we haven't had many of those in the new CBA era just because there haven't been that many quarterbacks drafted in the first round, the top 10 that have gotten this good this quickly. And honestly, the other one that we always kind of like forget about, we gloss over because of his name. But, you know, when Tom Brady won those first couple of Super Bowls, like that was not like Tom Brady of 2010 or 2013 that was winning those Super Bowls with with Choi Brown and Corey Dillon and that defense with Brucey and that entire group, the Thai laws of the world. I think when you look at just the way that those teams were able to win, and again,
Starting point is 00:18:34 we're going back decades and decades now. At the end of the day, I think that it's interesting to just try, again, put those guys in position to succeed. On the journey of the draft podcast, I was talking with Jordan Reed from ESPN. And we were talking about what are the traits that are most important for a quarterback making that jump from college to the NFL. And one trait that we talked about is like a core trait is confidence. And it's not even like a, oh, is it a natural thing or is it something that can be fostered and can be grown? And I think when you look at young quarterbacks in the NFL, I am of absolutely the human element plays such a huge part in a guy's ability of whether or not he is going to succeed.
Starting point is 00:19:13 or not. And confidence, that comes from success, right? Success breeds confidence. So if you're putting your player in position to succeed, however that is, if that's going to be, hey, you know what, we're going to run the football. You look at Russell Wilson in 2012, 2013, 2014. That was a top four rushing offense every single year. Marshawn Lynch ran for at least 12,200, 1200 yards, all three of those seasons. He had 1590 in his rookie year. He had 1300 in the year that they went to the Super Bowl, right? You look at Dak Prescott. Again, a day three, pick who came in and started as a rookie due to injury. They led the league in rushing that year.
Starting point is 00:19:48 When you look at all of these guys that come in and young quarterbacks, well, how did they have that ability to be able to reach master level quarterback play? Because Doc Prescott now is one of the best pre-snap managers in all of football, but he didn't come out of the box that way in Mississippi State. He was a guy that was a flawed prospect. There was a reason why he went early day three. But you put him into a position where, okay, well, we're not going to necessarily
Starting point is 00:20:09 lean on you all the way. We're going to play sound defense. We're going to run the football. we're going to have other ways that we're going to win. Well, now, okay, we're going to give him the opportunity to feel confident in himself. We're going to do all of those different things from RPO standpoint, run rate, scramble rate. That climbed early on for Doc Prescott.
Starting point is 00:20:26 He was in the top eight in scramble rate every single year. Russell Wilson led the league in scramble rate each of his first three seasons in the NFL, right? So we're going to let him go, let him do what he does well, put him in a position where not only does he feel confident, but his teammates feel confident at him on offense. the offensive line, hey, if it's a two minute tribe, yeah, we feel confident in Russell Wilson leading us down the field to win. The defense isn't sitting on the bench saying, oh, I hope this is no, it's like, all right, no, let's go. Let's go win this football game. That defense may have been
Starting point is 00:20:54 with the way they felt about Russell Wilson back. Well, we'll say the early days, right? We'll go like 2012, 2013 before things went a little bit south. But I think at the end of the day, too, is that you're consistently trying to find ways to put that guy in position to succeed. And, you know, it's funny going back to what we said earlier about, you know, the, the QB friendly offense that was viewed as like this dirty term in scouting circles and in coaching circles. Chip Kelly was here in 2014. And I feel like this was a really interesting question. I believe it was the 2014 season. So year two, he was asked about, oh, do you view your your offense as QB friendly?
Starting point is 00:21:29 And he was like, well, no, I never really thought about that way. I think that this offense is friendly for the quarterback, the offensive line, the wide receivers. That's your job as a coach. I would say that any system that isn't QB friendly, that's a bad system. So again, just putting those guys in position to do whatever it is that they do well. If you want to say, oh, we're Lamar Jackson, we're going to lean heavily into RPO's and zone read and the run game. Or if it's Joe Burrow, hey, we're going to lean into empty, quick game and shot throws.
Starting point is 00:21:58 And, hey, we're Jayland Hertz. And we're going to lead into this. We're going to lean into that. At the end of the day, you look at all of these different tools. People would say like, oh, well, RPO's. that dumps the offense down. That makes it too easy for the quarterback. Patrick R. Holmes has led the NFL in RPO's over the last five years,
Starting point is 00:22:13 like every single year by like a wide, wide margin. Aaron Rogers is the second in RPO's over the last four or five years. The Arizona offense with Kyler Murray, Jalen Hertz this year, Josh Allen in the top five and RPO percentage over the last five years. Like that's what we're doing now to let these guys do what they do best. You know, go out, move the ball, be efficient. And then, hey, you know what? If the defense does win, go out.
Starting point is 00:22:37 and make a play. And I feel like that's the, uh, the line of demarcation between like, serviceable starting quarterback, which I feel like is probably easier to find this in this modern NFL than ever, but that's a separate conversation for another day, um, as opposed to like the,
Starting point is 00:22:51 uh, that next level, that next tier, which is obviously what everybody's looking for, uh, that, that guy who can win when the defense wins, you've got the ability to keep us on schedule.
Starting point is 00:22:59 So I, we're going to dig into that here in a second. We get to this next year. Two more things I want to talk about with this group. Yeah. Patrick Mahomes, obviously is the most recent example of this. I probably should have mentioned that.
Starting point is 00:23:09 He was on a very cheap deal when they won the Super Bowl, still on a cheap deal when they went to the Super Bowl again and lost to the bucks. So, I mean, he's the best example of this. Lamar Jackson, you could put him in here because he's still technically on a rookie deal. But Lamar's making like $23 million against the cap this year. He's actually wedged right between Aaron Rogers and Dak Prescott. So he's getting paid more like a market level second contract player. So we'll talk about him a little bit later on and kind of a different bucket.
Starting point is 00:23:36 but I did want to mention him there. So the next group, I think, talks, gets into a lot of the things that you're discussing here. And that is the unproven, okay, quote unquote, rookie contract quarterbacks that have been given loaded teams, where teams have wielded those resources to put a ton around those guys with one thing in mind. We have two possible timelines, like you mentioned, around this guy. By the end of this season, with everything that we've done, all the help that we've given him, this is either going to accelerate his development and kind of put him in a different tier of quarterbacks where he's no longer unproven.
Starting point is 00:24:20 Maybe he's closer to that Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert type group, or by the end of this year, we can conclude he's probably not the guy and it's time for us to figure out some sort of alternative. And I think that coming into this season, both the Eagles and the Dolphins, at least to an outside observer, were in that sort of situation where both of these guys and the parallels between them, It's kind of wild how many there are. Right? So both of these guys are drafted in 2020. Both of these teams have excess draft picks because of deals they made in the
Starting point is 00:24:51 2021 draft. Weirdly, one of those trades was between these two teams. When the dolphins went up for Jalen Waddle and the Eagles went back, they got an extra first round pick in the process and still got Devante Smith. Howie Roseman is good at this. They used some of that amassed draft capital to deal for a number one receiver in advance of this season. with the Eagles going out and getting AJ Brown,
Starting point is 00:25:13 the Dolphins going out and getting Tyree Kill. And they've both, I think, done a fantastic job. This is kind of what you were alluding to, of having high-level play callers and offensive staffs that have done a fantastic job of building these offenses through the strengths of their quarterback. Whether it's what Mike McDaniel has done with Tua in just constructing the Dolphins, passing offense,
Starting point is 00:25:37 or whether it's what the Eagles have done with Shane Steakin and Nick Siriani and how. they've built that eagle's offense. And these teams had similar plans coming into the season, and it fucking worked. It works like gangbusters. The Eagles are second and offensive DVOA. The dolphins are third in offensive DVOA. You could see the writing.
Starting point is 00:25:57 You could see what they were trying to accomplish with all of these things, but there was no guarantee that it was all going to fall into place. And now look at this. It all fell into place about as well as they probably could have hoped. So I think both of these teams obviously are a position as currently constructed with these quarterbacks and with these supporting cast to win a Super Bowl. I guess my big question is, which bucket do we think Jalen Hertz is going to belong into? After the season is over, he's probably no longer in the unproven rookie quarterback contract. So where does he go and what have you seen from his development to kind of dictate that direction?
Starting point is 00:26:37 me personally, I view that he's going to be in that bucket of the, when you start getting into like the, the borough, Herbert, like that kind of discussion. And we can get into like how those guys get stacked inside that bucket. But if we're talking about trying to get him into the right neighborhood, that doesn't matter that much to me in there.
Starting point is 00:26:53 Exactly. We're going to get into the neighborhood. And I feel like that's the right neighborhood that he'd be moving into. And I feel like he, but with both players, honestly, has evolved over the last 15 months, right? Last year, 2021, the first, you know, four, five, six weeks, it was tough.
Starting point is 00:27:15 It was tough. And I think when you're talking about throwing a young quarterback in, and that was year two for him, but he didn't really play all that much as a rookie. He was a second round pick, a weird situation in 2020, right? For a lot of different reasons for everybody. Yeah, right. I think when you look at, anytime you take a young quarterback, first year, second year doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:27:34 And you throw them into the field, that's like, You know, you're throwing a kid that does know how to swim into the deep end of the pool. And rather than say, okay, we're going to stuff your pockets full of change and put ankle weights on you. We're going to give you as many different life preservers as possible to stay afloat. And because honestly, the way I look at it, defenses are so good in the NFL, right? And we talk about what are the benchmarks between a starting quarterback and like a great quarterback? The great quarterback is the one that's able to defeat the defense when they're able to win. Right. So having that answer, whether it's with your mind, your arm or with your legs, well, it's really hard for a young quarterback to
Starting point is 00:28:07 come right out of college and win with your mind. So all the different things you can do to help him out from a mental standpoint, that's great. And then, hey, we're going to lean on your ability to win with your legs and at times with your arm, when possible. So I think when you look at the way that the Eagles and with the dolphins have leaned into, hey,
Starting point is 00:28:23 this is what these guys do well? And again, leaning into what, what is Andy Reid done with Patrick Holmes? What is Buffalo done with Josh Allen? Both, I think people would be shocked at how often they run RPO's, how often they run play action.
Starting point is 00:28:37 because people don't think about that, they run play action game with the Buffalo Bills, but I'm pretty sure over the last five years, yeah, they're in the top four in play action pass percentage to Buffalo Bills, right? So I think when you look at the way that teams are able to put these guys in position to just, hey, you know what? We know you're not ready from a mental standpoint yet
Starting point is 00:28:54 to have every single answer and win every single chess match against an opposing defensive coordinator. So we're going to do what we can to help you along the way. And it's almost like, you know, getting your bachelor degree and say, We're not going to put you in the operating room to perform open heart surgery. You've got to go to med school. You've got to put more time and more hours in. That's the same thing with these guys.
Starting point is 00:29:14 But we're going to allow you to build confidence, build up, build up some equity. So now you feel confident. Your teammates feel confident in you, the fan base, the entire organization is behind you. So now when you get to year four, year five, year six, and maybe your athleticism has gotten away from you a little bit. You're not the guy that's going to be in the top eight in scramble race. like Dak Prescott was early in his career. Now what do we see?
Starting point is 00:29:38 Dak Prescott is as good of a game manager. And I'm saying that from a like pre-snap operating and knowing exactly what you're going to do with all of your different checks, beating the defense from a mental standpoint as there is in the NFL. Well, now that's, again, that's not what he was before. You had to get to that point. And that is, I think, what you're seeing now
Starting point is 00:29:55 with a lot of these young quarterbacks around the league. Teams are willing now to say, you know what? We're going to give you the tools to succeed early. to then we're going to let that pay off for us down the road. And you are going to help us bring everybody else along with you once we have to pay you that big. It's all cyclic. It's a fascinating conversation. It's awesome.
Starting point is 00:30:15 And I don't think that you pointing out the confidence thing I think is so important because I'm going through this with Justin Fields right now. And to me there's a legitimate question about, okay, we're seeing all these things he can do as a runner. And he is unbelievably exciting. Every single game, it's hard to wrap my mind around it, where you're watching this quarterback who is capable of ripping off a 50-yard touchdown run any single time he touches the ball. It's a strange experience for somebody who's never rooted for a team. Not many people have ever seen a team that a quarterback can do that. So there's this weird dissonance where it's like, how am I supposed to process this and where can he take this? and I think the most important aspect of this
Starting point is 00:30:58 is the confidence that the season he's having can breed for him. Even if the specific skill set maybe isn't translatable over time what he's doing right now, that confidence is very real. And I think that adding a guy like AJ Brown, even if you already had Devante Smith,
Starting point is 00:31:17 and then adding a guy like Tyree Kill, even if you already had a J.1 Waddle, is important not only from the construction of the defense standpoint, And what defenses can do to you? You look at the amount of zone coverage that the dolphins see. You think about, I don't know, what would you say is the thing that AJ Brown does the most to change the just the overall structure of defenses for people? I would say that just his ability, not just with the ball in his hands, but to be a ball winner outside, we weren't, we weren't sure about that coming into the year.
Starting point is 00:31:46 And he has proven that he's a true three level threat. So, and it's the, it's the trust those guys give you. Yeah. That's the intangible aspect. I was talking to a GM about this who went out and got a real number one receiver for his young quarterback a couple years ago. I was asking, what do you think was the biggest factor that really helped that guy's development? He said it was the trust he had in that player whenever those big moments came about. Against man coverage this season, J.1 Hertz has thrown the ball to A.J. Brown 35% of the time on 35% of the Eagles total targets.
Starting point is 00:32:18 For the dolphins, it's 38% for Tyree kill whenever they face man coverage. On Sunday, A.J. Brown was targeted, according to next gen stats, on 12 of his 27 routes facing single high coverage. So about half the time, the bears were in a single high look with A.J. Brown having a one-on-one in the outside. Jalen hurts through him the ball. That's extremely real. Being able to instill that level of trust in these young quarterbacks and giving them that confidence and breeding that confidence, they don't need to be complete players. it's okay that all of this help and all of these other high-level pieces are kind of helping them grow along the way. And we always try to do this where we're extricating how much help is he really being given versus how much is he doing on his own
Starting point is 00:33:07 and how much of it is the supporting cast versus how much of it is the quarterback. And eventually, that's a problem for later. As long as you're building in the right direction, that becomes the most important thing. And I think that both the Eagles and the dolphins deserve so much credit for understanding how to sequence this stuff and what needed to happen to get their guide where they wanted to go. Both of these teams in the last year or so have, it's been an exercise and a study in how you do this the right way. What happens next, I think, is a reasonable
Starting point is 00:33:40 question. I'm more confident in the answers that Jalen Hertz can provide the Eagles compared to what the answers that Tua can provide the dolphins are right now after seeing what the season has been and what the last few weeks have been. But that's why I really wanted to talk about this, because I think that this archetype of quarterback, this guy that we weren't really sure, I don't know what he is, we have a trapdoor with these multiple first round picks next year
Starting point is 00:34:05 just in case. The fact that we could go from that in July to these teams being top five offenses and real Super Bowl contenders and Jalen Hertz looking like a real MVP candidate and two having some of the best stats in the league, it's incredibly instructive to me. And I think it's something that we should really take a look at in a long, hard way moving forward
Starting point is 00:34:28 when we think about this position and what sort of teams can win championships based on who they have at the position. And again, the best part about it is that it's such a layered discussion. Just in the last 40 minutes that we've been talking about it, we've talked about it from a team building, like acquiring talent to go getting Jamar Chase, say A.J. Brown, Tyree Kill. There's the financial end of it, how you're allocating dollars and cap money, to be able to build around that young quarterback or the veteran quarterback. And then there's the excess nose aspect of it of leaning into schematically.
Starting point is 00:34:56 What is it that this guy does well? How do we put him in position to succeed and then have that confidence? And I feel like I haven't watched Miami as much this year because we're not, we're not seeing them until potentially February. But looking at Jaylon, looking at Jalen Hertz, you know, on a weekly basis, just what you talked about like the confidence in man coverage, even just against pressure early on in the season. And their answer was wide receiver screen, wide receiver screen, wide receiver screen.
Starting point is 00:35:21 They go to the buy week. Yeah, they go to the buy week. And now what have we seen since the by week? Since they played the Pittsburgh Steelers, I believe it was week eight, they lead the NFL and explosive plays against the Blitz. And so much of that is the faith that he has both in A.J. Brown and DeVante Smith, uh, fine. Hey, you know what?
Starting point is 00:35:36 We are excellent and empty. And we don't run empty like a super high level talking about the Eagles offense. They're like middle of the road, like 18, 19, 20. But they average 9.1 yards per play out of empty because they'll spread you out and then he's going to throw a slot fade to Devante Smith or A.J. Brown, and that's going to go for a 68-yard gain or a 41-yard touchdown on fourth and seven, right? It's just those kind of plays, that kind of confidence, again, going back to that word, that just shows up time and time again. It's a really interesting part to the entire equation. You're staying two steps ahead of me because I was
Starting point is 00:36:05 going to ask you specifically, what do you think is the most important area where you've seen development from him this year as a passer? And I think that is a perfect example, is that those exact situations. All right. Let's get to the third kind of grouping I have here. This is what I would call the top 10 quarterback on a market level contract. So not the highest paid quarterbacks in the league, not the Josh Allen Mahomes types in terms of impact, but guys that are not on rookie deals anymore.
Starting point is 00:36:33 And there are two players in the current playoff landscape that I would point to. And that's Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. So they are right next to each other in the amount they're making against the cap this year, and there are a lot more similarities between them when you look at their impact and the types of offenses that they've had. So the Cowboys are sixth in offensive DVOA since Dak got back in week seven. The Ravens were sixth in weeks one through 13 when Lamar was playing. They are 26th in the two and a half game since Lamar has gotten hurt. The Cowboys were 22nd in passing DVOA without Dak during that stretch in the middle of the season. So these quarterbacks are very
Starting point is 00:37:10 important to the success of their offenses, but they still aren't those kind of top of the level guys. I will say, Dax's cap hit goes up big time next year. So he goes from a $19 million cap hit this season to $49 million in 2023. Some free agents for the Cowboys heading in the next year. Anthony Brown, Layton Vander Esh, Tony Pollard, Donovan Wilson, Connor McGovern, Dalton Schultz, Terrant Steel is a restricted free agent, which I was kind of bummed about. I saw him on a free agent list, and I'm just thinking about it. this $130 million sitting in my backyard and how their bears are going to spend it. I was like, damn it, they're probably going to try to keep him there.
Starting point is 00:37:47 And so Lamar, same kind of deal. It's 20-ish million this year, but if he gets tagged next year, you're looking at 30-plus million. So I thought there are a lot of similarities between the impact these guys have, the ways their rosters are constructed, and sort of the, let's say the hurdles that the teams are going to have to jump over next year when they're figuring out with the next stage of building around these guys. but I think both of them definitively are quarterbacks that you can win a Super Bowl with. No question. I think when you look at the way that Dak and Lamar win as a quarterback, it's certainly different, right? Very, very, very different. But I think organizationally, it's two programs with the Baltimore Ravens and with the Dallas Cowboys
Starting point is 00:38:27 that have done a really good job through the draft of being able to continue to replenish the back end of that roster. They use resources very, very well from that standpoint. And you're never going to bat a thousand, right? Not every single pick is going to hit. but just to understand, hey, you know, this is our process. We have faith in our process. It's tried and true.
Starting point is 00:38:44 And we're going to find ways to be able to win on those margins. I mean, Dak is a product of that, right? Being a day three guy that has stepped in and far surpassed what that pre-draft value was. So I think being able to understand, you know what, if we're going to pay our quarterback in this ballpark and we're going to have that guy on the books, well, we need to be able to continue to find ways to either bargain basement shop in free agency. You look at the Dallas Cowboys, the J-Ron curses of the world, right? It's a perfect example. Hey, you know what?
Starting point is 00:39:10 One year deal, Malik Hooker, we're going to sign you on a one year deal, a prove it situation and you outperform that. Well, now we're going to bring you back and you're going to be a more integral part to what we're doing, getting the impact that they've gotten from like Dante Fowler up front, you know, as part of the pass rush. And you go on both sides of the football and find examples of that with both of these teams. But I think at the end of the day, it's all about trying to find ways to win on the margins once you have that guy on the books at that level.
Starting point is 00:39:36 And they've done it slightly different ways. I think that the, the Ravens have done a really good job of finding impact players that are also high snap players in veteran free agency. So Callas Campbell, Kevin Zitler, Morgan Moses, Justin Houston, those are huge players for this team right now, the way that they're constructed. You know, Dante Fowler is a rotational pass rusher for the Cowboys. It's slightly different.
Starting point is 00:40:01 What the Cowboys have done and the Ravens have not is the Cowboys have hit 500-foot home runs in the draft over the last few years. Michael Parsons, we know what Michael Parsons is. C.D. Lamb has been fantastic for Dallas this year. Trayvon Diggs has been really, really good for the Cowboys. The Ravens just haven't really done that in the early parts of the draft over the last couple years. Obviously, Rashad Bateman has hurt right now.
Starting point is 00:40:27 Always been fine for them, but not a star-level player. J.K. Dobbins has been banged up. Patrick Queen has been disappointing. So the fact that the Ravens have managed to kind of keep this thing going, while having the hit rate or lack of a hit rate that they have in the draft or the last couple years, I think is a testament to how good they are at amassing draft picks, first of all, and shopping on the margins in the way that they can. But this difference in their team-building strategy and kind of the ways they put this roster together
Starting point is 00:40:56 is the reason that I think the Cowboys are a better team with a better chance to win the Super Bowl this year than the Ravens currently are. Yeah, I know you talked about it was last week or the week before about Seattle, and how you have those ebbs and flows from a draft standpoint. And again, it's just if you trust your process, at some point, you feel like the things are going to swing back the other way. And it's funny when you were talking about the veteran additions that Baltimore has made, the Zeitlers and the Cleas Campbells, a lot of those guys didn't impact the compic formula the year that they were bought in.
Starting point is 00:41:26 So it was like, all right, well, we're going to find those guys to bring in and impact it, but it's not going to impact the volume of draft picks that we have. And again, just you look at the way that Eric Acosta is. drafted since taking over. It's a lot of the things you would say are, yeah, this is a smart way to look at the draft. We're going to draft, you know, priority positions in the early-ish to middle rounds.
Starting point is 00:41:47 You actually be surprised you look at like the first round pick. It's like, oh, they took like a safety in an offball linebacker and a center and like, all the different ways that they add talent high up in the draft. But I think when you look at the profile of a lot of these players, again, the process at some point will win out. It's just a matter of making sure that you hit on more than you miss early on while you're still paying Lamar Jackson what you're paying them. It's also worth mentioning.
Starting point is 00:42:10 I think Will McClay has been such an underrated job in the Cowboys roster over the last five years. We gave him a lot of flowers last year when the Cowboys were having that season. I just was a little bit disappointed in the Cowboys lack of urgency and adding talent to that roster this off season. And I think part of that is one of the reasons I was relatively down on them comparatively. Like I thought the Eagles were going to win the NFC East.
Starting point is 00:42:29 I thought the Eagles were a lot better than the Cowboys. They've had a really nice season and better than I expected them to be. And I think that they, they deserve more the benefit of the doubt and how they've built this roster over the last few years because I think he's done a really, really good job. So I wanted to point out a couple of the other examples of quarterbacks that are kind of of this archetype that have won Super Bowls recently because I also think that is helpful. I would put Matthew Stafford last year in this category where he's probably a top 10ish
Starting point is 00:42:56 quarterback. He was making 20 million against the cap. So not super high level, but was central to their success in the same way that Dack and Lamar is central to the success of their two offenses. Eli Manning in 2011 had the fourth highest cap hit among quarterbacks. The Giants were fourth and passing DVA way that season. I think that sometimes we get a little bit confused about the 2007 giants and the 2011 giants.
Starting point is 00:43:20 The 2007 giants were a wildcard team that got really, really hot. The 2011 giants actually were pretty good in certain areas and they were a good team. And honestly, if you look at the numbers and what he was paid, I'd kind of put 20-20 Tom Brady in this category. Yeah. Where I think he was like eighth in dropback EPA. He was making a reasonable salary, but the bucks were fifth and defensive DVOA that season. And I think that's the other similarity between the Cowboys and the Ravens here and why they're contenders this year with their quarterbacks and with the overall contours of the roster.
Starting point is 00:43:58 The Cowboys have an elite elite defense or at least have for most of the season. and the Ravens, I think, are eighth and weighted defensive DVOA. So you got to get your shit together on the other side of the ball sometimes when you don't have that Mahom or Allen, but Mahomes or Allen. But I think both of these teams have done that, and a lot of the teams that have won Super Bowls with these types of quarterbacks in the past have also done that on defense.
Starting point is 00:44:21 Tampa Bay, obviously, that defense, the year they won, the Rams last year with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller coming off the edge, making plays late in the season. Again, it's about finding ways to, if you are going to have that money allocated to that position, where else are you able to kind of pick up the slack and, you know, finding different ways to be able to,
Starting point is 00:44:41 there's a lot of different ways to skin a cat and teams prove that on a yearly basis. So going into this next group here, if I look at the teams that are currently in the playoffs, so theoretically can win the Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannenhill are outwaters here. Okay. Both of these guys are, I think, top three or top four. And what they're making against the cap is quarterback.
Starting point is 00:45:10 that's because the types of contracts that they're on, some of these guys are getting restructured. Mahomes didn't this year, but he will other seasons. Last year, Mahomes, his cap hit was artificially low because he got restructured. These teams don't want to be pushing money into future years. The Titans did it last year, but because these are potentially short-term solutions for them. There's really no precedent for a quarterback with Kirk Cousins' salary in Cap-Hit and the Vikings passing game production.
Starting point is 00:45:40 winning the Super Bowl in the last 10 years. The closest comparison for what the 2022 Vikings might be and what other Super Bowl winners might have been, maybe like the Ravens in 2012. Okay, yep. The Ravens were 15th in offensive DVOA that season. Joe Flacco was making 6.6% of the cap in 2012 when the Ravens got hot and won the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:46:02 Kirk Cousins is at a cool 14.97 this year. So it's slightly different. It absolutely could happen, but it would be unlike anything that we've seen in recent memory for a guy making top of the market money for a average passing offense at best and with not an elite defense to go on and win a Super Bowl. It's kind of the needles that this Vikings team is going to have to thread if they're going to take this thing to a place that we've really never seen a team do it before. Well, I think it just carries over like the is Joe Flacco elite question to are the Vikings good question? It really is at the end of the day you're asking the same question with both of those teams.
Starting point is 00:46:39 But again, it just goes back to all the things we've been saying this entire time, no question. So if you were trying to build a team that could win a Super Bowl with a market-topping contract for Kirk Cousins, if you were doing that in like a vacuum of team building, you'd probably build the 2017 Vikings, right? And that's why they did this, because they had an elite defense. They had the best defense in football that season, a defense that both of us watched get dismantled at Lincoln Financial Field and Tennessee championship game. but they were really fucking good all year. And that's why they did this because that all right, we have this type of defense. And if we get an upgrade at quarterback that's even like one step off from what Case Keenem was for us,
Starting point is 00:47:21 we are a real Super Bowl contender. And I think that's why, sorry, five, four, three, you'd want to pair like a truly elite defense with a quarterback like that if you were going to be successful, which brings us to the last guy that I want to talk about here. And that is Brock Purdy. I don't know which bucket Brock Purdy belongs in here. And I think if we're doing it in line with some of the other things we've talked about today, we're talking about cap spending, what these guys are making.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Brock Purdy is a seventh round rookie. Obviously, he's making absolutely nothing. But the Niners overall are eighth in cap spending a quarterback between him, Garoplo, and Shrey Lance. So it's not like they're paying a quarterback on a rookie deal, even though they are. They're just paying several quarterbacks. So they don't really fall into one category. They almost feel like they shouldn't count because of what Shanahan can do for you and also what their defense is. We've seen teams with elite defenses win Super Bowls.
Starting point is 00:48:19 And I think the Niners, maybe they aren't in that 2015 Broncos or 2013 Seahawks kind of category, but they're really freaking good. But their offense isn't bad. Their offense is still functional with him at quarterback. So I think this is just one of those moments where what they've built in the machine that they're, they've built in San Francisco, even if it's better with Jimmy Garapolo, it's kind of impervious to whatever you're going to drop in there to a certain extent. And that's what made the, the Tray Lance trade such a fascinating thing to discuss and debate, whether you did it on a podcast or you're just like talking with your friends about it off the side. It's like, you know,
Starting point is 00:48:55 are you getting the return on investment? How much better is the offense? If you do get, if Tray Lance hits, right? If Tray Lance hits to what you think he could be, I was very, very high on Trey Lance continue to be very, very high on Trey Lance. If Trey Lance hits, that's the thing is we still don't know. We're going into year three. I think at the end of the day, you say, okay, well, then it's worth it. If he doesn't quite hit the mark of, oh, you gave up three first round picks, he was the number three overall pick.
Starting point is 00:49:21 But he's a solid starter. If he becomes one of those kind of middle of the road type of quarterbacks between like 12 and 18, then obviously that probably wasn't worth it in the structure of this ecosystem, right? Because you know what you can get. And would you rather have had Jimmy and the, three first round picks or would you rather have Tray Lance? I think again, to see
Starting point is 00:49:39 what Brock Purdy and other quarterbacks that have been there and executed that offense and still perform at a passable level, it's what makes that specific team. One of 32, you probably would argue, so fascinating to talk about. So here, this would be my argument. This is my argument at the time.
Starting point is 00:49:58 That ecosystem that you're talking about, that ecosystem is hard to maintain year and year out. And I know that they've done it over multiple seasons. We're three years removed from them going to a nearly winning the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garapolo, who was making $20 million, by the way, that year. So even that situation is incomparable to the one that they're in right now. It's difficult to do that year in and year out.
Starting point is 00:50:20 And think about all of the different things they're going to have to fall into place for that to continue into next season. D'Amico Ryans is going to be a head coach next year. You think that part of it. They are right now. They're only 10th in cap spending on defense. the Niners are. Who do you think is the most expensive player against the salary cap for the San Francisco 49ers this season?
Starting point is 00:50:42 On defense. Yeah, on defense, I mean, it's going to be somebody silly like Jimmy Ward or something. It is Jimmy Ward. Jimmy Ward is the correct answer. Jimmy Ward is making $12.9 million against the cap. Okay.
Starting point is 00:50:54 He is the most expensive player against the cap for the Niners. Bosa is still on his rookie deal, obviously. He's about to get, what do you think Joe Nick Bosa is going to get on his next team? whatever he wants. Whatever he wants. There's a chance it's like up near like $30 million a year is what Boas is looking at. Warner's cap hit jumps by about $10 million next year.
Starting point is 00:51:15 And that's kind of the stuff that we're getting into. So they have a few guys under contract right now that their cap hits are going up $10 full million next year. Ward is in that, or excuse me, Nick, Fred Warner's in that conversation, Trent Williams, George Kittle. I think Devo Samuels is about to go up a ton. So they're about to get much. more expensive. I think that ecosystem that we're talking about, it's going to be harder to maintain. And I think that's why you make the Tray Lance trade when you make it.
Starting point is 00:51:44 But again, that's a consideration for a different time. Right now, they're in a spot where they are so good on both sides of the ball, just talent-wise and execution-wise on defense and then what Kyle Shanahan is built on offense, that they absolutely can do this. The best comparison is probably the 20. 2017 Eagles. Like if you were Trump, because they did it with a backup quarterback. But even that year, with Nick Foles, the Eagles were 26th in cap spending.
Starting point is 00:52:13 Yep. And the Niners are eighth. So the Niners are doing this while spending the eighth most money on their quarterbacks and being on their third quarterback. And I still think we both believe that they can do this thing. Yeah, I think, and that's the, when you talk about the Christian McCaffrey trade and what that could be. And this was before the Jimmy Garoppola trade was like, all right, well, all the different.
Starting point is 00:52:33 I think you've summed it up best. you and Nate when you talked about that trade afterwards. It's like from a X's No standpoint, this is really, really fun. From a like team building standpoint, I'm not quite sure about like, how responsible this was. But again, from the scheme standpoint, that's just, we're just talking right now this year and this 2020 version of this team. And if you're going to insert Brock Purdy, you're not talking about Brock Purdy as
Starting point is 00:52:57 the quarterback in 2025. You're talking about him. What is he for the next six, seven, eight weeks? And now you've got the supporting cast around him to put him position to succeed and continue to build his confidence, which having studied Brock Purdy throughout the course of his career at Iowa State, confidence is not the issue with him. He's got plenty of that moxie in him the way that he plays. So you are in a good position to talk about this.
Starting point is 00:53:22 Somebody who was with the Eagles, thinks about the Eagles. You're the Philadelphia Eagles. It's the NFC championship game. And I don't know if the seeds would even allow this to happen. But let's play the hypothetical out. It's the NFC championship game. You're posting it at home. would you rather see the Brock Purdy led 49ers or the Dak Prescott led Cowboys right now?
Starting point is 00:53:40 Hmm. I mean, I think at the end of the day, see, with both teams, right? You've got a pass. Yeah, that's the thing. No question. I think I'd probably rather see San Francisco because I think with both teams, you're talking about a defense and a defensive front that can get after. That's what makes this Saturday afternoon's match up so fun.
Starting point is 00:53:59 It's the two best pass rushes in football from a productivity standpoint with the Eagles and Cowboys. But I think when you look at San Francisco's pass rush and the Cowboys pass rush, that kind of goes out in the wash. But then when you factor in like Dak Prescott and what he could do, I think I'd rather see the inexperienced quarterback in that scenario. I think that's probably the right answer. And we're going to talk about Purdy at length on the preview show, me and Nadar.
Starting point is 00:54:24 We obviously, unfortunately didn't get a chance to break it down after the game last week because of some technical issues. But we're going to talk about that and what they looked like on offense. But I do think they're more limited with Purdy. than they were with Garoppler. I think that he has made mistakes that Jimmy Garoppel. I probably wouldn't. And that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:54:38 He's a seventh round rookie. He's like two starts into his career. But when you look at the production that they've had and how dynamic they have been offensively since the Christian McCaffrey trade, and you combine that with who they are on defense, I feel much better about the Niners defense week in and week out and them going into the playoffs than I do about Dallas. I think that the whole outside corner of the Dallas is the only way. right now with Kelvin Joseph. And just the general, and we'll see what happens late in Vanderash, but also just the general discipline issues
Starting point is 00:55:11 that can pop up. They're so aggressive. And they rely on that aggression so much that when you have a team that does a really intentional job of kind of playing with that the way that the Jags did on Sunday, I just feel better about the Niners
Starting point is 00:55:25 as a cohesive unit, no matter what you're trying to do against them. So you combine that feeling with just the sheer amount of firepower at the skill positions that the Niners can bring at you right now. The fact that it's even a discussion, I think is wild and I think speaks to what the Niners have built around Brock Purdy and why Brock Purdy is the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl this year, which is a sentence I definitely did not think I was going to be uttering
Starting point is 00:55:52 a couple weeks ago just to bring it all around. Fran Duffy, thank you very much, my friend. This was fantastic. Always great to chat with you. I really appreciate you taking the time. Yeah, absolutely, Robert. A lot of fun. Really appreciate you having me on.
Starting point is 00:56:04 All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Please come back tomorrow and check out the Football GM podcast with Mike Sando and Randy Mueher. They do a fantastic job. If you guys haven't listened to that show this year, I really recommend it. Randy, obviously, was a multi-time GM, multi-time executive of the year. The insight and the perspective he has on some of the stuff going on in the league is really stuff you can't really get anywhere else.
Starting point is 00:56:27 And him and Mike have a great relationship. It's a fun show. It's going to make you think about. stuff in a way that you don't right now. That's why I enjoy listening to it. So please go check that out. Please check out Prospects to Pros. Between Bruegler and Andy Staples, they're back in the feed this week after taking
Starting point is 00:56:43 some time off last week. So highly encourage you to listen to that if you have not because draft season, as Fran knows, is kicking into high gear here very soon. In the meantime, really appreciate you guys listening. We will talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.

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