The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The Justin Fields market, the Kirk Cousins domino, franchise tag machinations, and more scuttlebutt from the combine with Dianna Russini

Episode Date: March 1, 2024

The Athletic Football Show wraps up its week at the combine with Robert Mays and Dianna Russini digging into the moves and news taking place behind the scenes. What's the market for Justin Fields? Will Kirk Cousins move on from Minnesota? Could the Buccaneers lose Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield? What franchise tag moves are still left to be made? Robert and Dianna dig into that, and a whole lot more, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Dianna on Twitter: @DMRussiniSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's our senior NFL insider at the Athletic. Diana, how are you? I am exhausted. I need like six more naps, but I can't sleep here. Indies like Vegas for me.

It's the worst. It's the worst. And I know we just came off eight days of this. By the way, for those listening, this is not complaining. It's just the reality of the situation. It's just constant conversations. You can't go anywhere without people just wanting, people sometimes just want to be polite and say hi.

They don't even really want to talk to me. They just don't want to be rude. This week especially, it's the art of the handshake and walk. It's just like, hey, sorry, great to see you. Got to go. Got a thing. And you have to be deft about that because you don't want to seem rude. But unless you've mastered that maneuver, you're going to have 17,000 conversations

a day. Yes. And I am queen of the look through, you know, when you're having a conversation with somebody, but you don't want to talk to them because you really want to talk to other people that you're here for, which is the rudest body behavior. It's hard to tamp that down. It's hard to tamp down that in things. Especially someone like me.

I'm already high. energy. I already have ADD. And then, oh, wait, I have to have a conversation with somebody with all these these NFL people just circling the waters. Like, it's impossible. I just came from standing at the top of an escalator. That's what, that's what I did today. I stood at the top of it. It's actually a very good place to stand. It was an amazing. Do you know how many conversations I had about free agency in this draft and just the tone of indie standing at an escalator? Because everyone's got to go up and down. This is the transition that happened to me maybe three or four years ago. I think one of it was stopping drinking, but two of it was getting older,

is that I saw the light in the Mike Sandoz strategy where he just does all his work at the coffee place in the morning. When everyone else is telling themselves, well, I'll just talk to people at night. It's like, no, you won't. Those aren't going to be fruitful conversations. You're lying to yourself. So that transition to, in the daytime hours,

I can really get a lot done is an important one for us at the compound. So I hit it on both ends. Well, yeah, you go hard all the time. I do morning at night. And the reason why I do the morning thing, It's not so much because you're a little bit more sound, sane, caffeinated, and people are in a better space. I try to pick off those that are recovering from the night before. It's a great call.

So they're vulnerable. They're hungover. They're emotional. Maybe they made mistakes that they regret, and they just want to talk. I actually had that happen this morning. I met with an agent who told me he was out until 4 in the morning, and he had a very early flight today. He looked horrible. But that was the most—he's never given me anything.

And he gave me really good stuff today. So I am now on Operation Hangout with the Hangovers. There's a line in what is one of my favorite movies of all time. It's in The Color of Money. And Paul Newman is talking to Tom Cruise. And he's saying that great pool, excellent pool isn't about excellent pool. It's about being a student of human moves. Oh, yes.

That's what you are. You are a student of human moves. Top of the escalator. That sounds like a great podcast. I was up until three last night. So I am in much worse shape than I typically am. and I would love everyone to give me a tiny bit of grace as they listen to this show. Just keep that in mind.

You sound great. Just know what our last like 48 to 72 hours have looked like. You're fine. We've got some good topics to get into that are going to keep you going. So let's move through this. We've done a lot of team building stuff this week. Let's really zone in here, though, on the rumors, the scuttle butt, what you have been focusing on here while you've been in Indianapolis.

And let's kick this off with where the draft kicks off in a lot of ways where the offseason kicks off. And as with the Chicago Bears and number one. What have you heard so far about how the bears are treated, the first overall pick and what sort of domino that might be for everything else. Yeah, so most of the stuff I'm going to be sharing with you is really just from having conversations with people at all levels, right? We're talking agents and head coaches, scouts, just people associated with these organizations and just weighing in on what they think, right?

So you sort of try to collect that and then, of course, you try to talk to the team and you try to get the facts. And I'm leaving Indy feeling very confident that the Chicago Bears are in the market to trade Justin Fields and they are targeting Caleb Williams. I feel very good saying that that's the feeling right now at this point. Now, stuff changes. Many things can happen. More interviews happen.

More information is revealed. But at this point, this just seems to be the situation and even just chasing down some people from Chicago when I say chasing, I literally was chasing them in the Marriott. To just ask them what this has been like in terms of managing. all of this attention right now because they are the talk of indie. And they were all pretty open about it being a lot. It's a lot.

But at the same time, there's optimism. And I forget that sometimes in this. This is such great news for Chicago. Yes, for those that want Justin back and having to move on from a quarterback who had some success there. And I know a majority of fans really like him. He created an excitement at the position that we very rarely get to see. Correct.

So yeah, there's a little bit of sense. is to think that they're going to move on, but let's see what they can get in terms of a trade for him. That's more things to celebrate, what they'll be able to get in terms of compensation. And then, oh, yeah, you're going to probably get the best quarterback in this class, who I think most evaluators will tell you he's a franchise guy that can turn this around for them. Most teams drafting number one overall are not in this position. I mean, the Bears finished like 17th and weighted DVOA overall and 10th on defense. This is a team that is more of a 500 team than a team picking first.

The only reason they're doing this is because of Carolina. Everything about the situation is unique. So thinking about the overall trajectory and progress within the building and then potentially dropping the number one overall pick quarterback into that and another top 10 pick, there's plenty of reason of optimism. And I'm not even like telling myself that story because I have to. It's just a different set of circumstances with the first overall pick than we normally see. And that's what I saw in the faces of the people in Chicago.

It was, oh yeah, I forgot. Yeah, it's a big business decision with a ton of pressure. You know, you see Ryan Poles walking around, Kevin Warren. I saw him speaking at the women's forum. And, you know, he was pretty open about what this process has been like. He's a team president. Yeah, the CEO. But he's involved, right?

So not every... It's a new era for Bears football. I think a lot of people that don't understand the machinations of it don't totally understand this. So for a very, very long time, the decisions on the football side were made by a combination of Jerry McCasky, who is, I don't know what his exact title is, he's the team president, and Ted Phillips, who was a business person. And now bringing in Kevin Warren is the first time that they've really ceded power to someone from outside the organization in a long time. So the way that that decision is being made in Chicago and all of the decisions over the last 18 months or so since Kevin

Warren's been brought in, it's a slightly different era. And I think it's important to remind people of that who maybe don't know that. And he spent a lot of these first few months on the job, really just collecting, not making quick decisions, because we've seen a lot of executives step in and they immediately want it their way. And that's not his style. It was, I need to figure out and get as much information I can about everything, including the quarterback.

And it seems that the sense here is that they're ready to move on from Justin and we'll see what this market's going to look like. So that was going to be my next question. Looking at who might be interested in Justin Fields and how that might drive his market, what do you think that looks like in the end? When my United Flight landed

in Indy, I was immediately on a mission to keep track of all the teams that are going to be in on Justin Fields, right? I'm chasing down Pittsburgh, Atlanta. I'm just thinking of every team that could use him, where it would make sense, where there's offensive coordinators that could have success and with his type of ability. And now I'm leaving in 24 hours. And I can tell you, I don't think the market is as robust as a lot of people thought. I have the same exact feeling, and obviously that comes with some personal tragedy for me, and them not getting much for him in a trade.

But even removing myself from it a little bit, that's been the takeaway that I've had, is that there aren't that many teams that are going to be super motivated to go get him. And does that depress his market compared to what we thought it might have been a month ago? I think that there is a sense Chicago has been very transparent, right? Ryan Paul shared with the media. We're not trying to drag this thing out. We want to move on and go, if that's the avenue, they go.

Of course, they're still going to keep their cards close to the vest here to try to build up some sort of leverage. but I just don't think that there is a team right now that is going to be aggressively chasing after Justin Fields knowing that the other free agent quarterbacks that are on the market right now that have had more success and maybe a better possibility than trading for Justin. Do I still think he's going to get traded to a team? Yes. But there is no clear team that I'm hearing right now that makes sense and is having where there's

like a lot of chatter about. Here's the way that I've conceived of it. If you are one of the, let's say, five or six teams that is in a pretty urgent quarterback position, here's the teams I would throw in there. Atlanta, Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas are the four teams I would throw out first. If you have three avenues, in my opinion, to go get a quarterback. One, you have the money to go get a Kirk Cousins. You can shop at the top of the free agent market. You want to win right now. That's an option for you. Two, you're in a position to draft one. Either it falls to you at 10 to 12, or you can move up a little bit in the draft

into that J.J. McCarthy range. Three, whatever the consolation option is, and that becomes Justin Fields for one of these teams. So if you think that there are enough quarterbacks in pads one and two to fill all those seats, then the market for Justin Field starts to go away. And I think that's the concern. And I think that's what's happening.

I think that's what we're seeing. you know and just trying to get an understanding from let's just use Pittsburgh as an example to me that that made sense right you have Arthur Smith there you go back and see what Justin Fields did against Atlanta yeah you would think that maybe you think that maybe Arthur goes oh man this kid can play but I don't I don't necessarily think that that is something Pittsburgh is signing up for it doesn't even feel Pittsburgh let's just be superficial about this is no intel this is just basic understanding of the league Justin field to the Steelers that that's not the

steal the way of doing things. It's more urgent than they typically operate. Correct. You know, Atlanta, all right, so you have Zach Robbins in there. There's a lot of new. There would be a lot of change for both, for the play caller,

for the quarterback. And they're a perfect example, right? They're picking eighth. There's probably a decent chance that there will be a quarterback there if they want one. So they're one of those teams that you can see the first two pads playing out because they also have the money to for Kirk if they wanted to do that.

Correct. So they seem like the least likely option when you think of the alternatives they could pursue. You know, and this is a team that values their draft picks. They're going to be very smart with this. But they also have a roster, as Rahim Morris essentially said, that is built to win. They need a quarterback.

That's why he got the job is because the quarterback play wasn't high enough. So they're going to go in on a veteran quarterback, try to bring a guy in who is going to be ready to win immediately. I don't necessarily believe that they think that that is Justin Fields at this point. there are two groups of teams that I would then start thinking about. One, mystery team that maybe we don't think about them meeting a quarterback, but maybe they do their pending free agent signs somewhere else. They have a spot that maybe we're not considered right now.

That's a group of teams. And the second group of teams is, if there's no spot for him as a starter, who is viewing him as a high upside swing as a backup, we have an aging quarterback, et cetera? And then does his market transition more into Trey Lance's market? last year rather than a starting quarterback. Correct. I know you mentioned Denver before as well, just that we want to skip over them. You know, I think Jared Stidham is a quarterback.

They believe in. They like them. I don't know if they love him just yet. I think that's a fair assessment. Sure. You know, he's shown some good signs. He was in a little bit of a bizarre situation last year, and you have to figure if he could just get more reps in that system with Sean

Payton. But that, just, that's a, that's a place. that doesn't make sense to me. Justin Fields. So now we're running out of seats, man. I mean, that's where we are. I think headed into here, it just felt that Atlanta and Pittsburgh were going to be the leaders of the clubhouse for Justin.

And I don't feel good about saying that at this point. We're in the same place. And I think that that is maybe a little bit surprising, but I think that might be the reality. And if the Bears do intend on trading him sooner rather than later, their return might not be what Bears fans are, I think other people might have expected. What if that report that's floating out of flowing or it's going around that they may keep him? Maybe it's because they won't be able to train him.

Maybe that's the situation that we're talking about here. Like you said, Ryan Poles came out. He's very transparent about it. I think there's a world where they just say, you know what? We're not worried about squeezing every single bit of draft capital we can out of this. That's not the priority. Let's move to the draftable quarterbacks a little bit. This is the first time that teams are getting around these guys, interviews, early impressions.

What have you heard, let's say about Caleb Liam, specifically from some of the people that you've talked about that have gotten their first impressions of him. Well, first of all, just the significance of these interviews, I think sometimes when fans hear about this, they go, well, all right, what are you going to learn in 18 minutes with a candidate or with a young player? Apparently a lot, right? So I met with a coach yesterday, and he was going to spend some time with Caleb, and I think he was going into it with some hesitations, right? There's a lot of noise around him right now. No one really knows them, but they think they know him. He's so unique.

You know, that's another sort of part of this conversation of there's a lot of old school type head coaches here are dealing with a different type of quarterback who's obviously been paid tons of money. Who's really entering this like a pro athlete, right? And that comes with positives and negatives. Correct. Right. In theory, from the outside looking in.

It's a new world. And especially a guy like Caleb Williams, who has been paid a lot of money, has had a lot of marketing deals, has a team of people advising him. He doesn't have an NFL agent. So sometimes those can be a bizarre mix. From what I gather from this one coach who wasn't really looking for, it's not that he wasn't looking forward to it. I just think he was a little hesitant and was concerned about some red flags.

Oh no. Caleb killed it when I followed up. And he was extremely impressive. And sort of, speaking my language. Blew the doors off. So I think these interviews, for him, I'd even ask Chicago if they had read the quotes from Kalin's piece. Our colleague Kaylin Collar did a deep dive essentially of the life of Caleb Williams and

what people are saying about him around the NFL, around the college base, as well as ESPN did an interview with him as well that dropped the same day. So Chicago read it all. And the people I talked to there told me they read them and they really like the quotes. They were happy that he wanted to be there because there was some bad reporting, I believe, that was out there that said that he didn't want to play in Chicago. There was bad reporting in mid-February about how the draft was going to go. It's shocking. I never would have thought that.

Here's what's crazy. I like to think what we're reporting now and what I'm talking to you about is really good and it's going to pan out. But the truth of the matter is, it could change, right? Because I do it every year. It happens every single year. You think it's going in this one direction, and then all of a sudden there's a swing, and things change. So I feel like when you're listening to this and you're taking in all the information that we're sharing with you, just keep in mind, after these interviews, after these workouts, after the pro days, after the medical report, all of that stuff,

teams can sometimes sour on these players. And that's why I even hesitate to say this, because it may sound very stupid or look very stupid in like two weeks. The sense I get, just general conversation, this is not like deep level reporting on the team level. this is just general conversation over the last 48 to 72 hours I would not be surprised if quarterbacks went one, two, and three and three, and it was, to the teams that are picking right now

and quarterbacks were the first three picks off the court. I had a very smart general manager to tell me one, two, three, four. And I said, what? He's like, one, two, three, four. So this is very interesting because that is the one nugget that, again, just on second hand, but just something to keep in mind, I think we all

just anticipated that if the draft fell one, two, three, and Marvin Harrison Jr. was there. It would be a no-brainer for the Cardinals. I don't believe that now. I think they would be more open to moving back and getting more picks if the right deal was there for a team that really wants to come up and get a quarterback.

I think it's hard to say that out loud, knowing just his value and how good he is and hearing from everyone around the league about the type of player he isn't, how he's going to be an immediate impact player. But I think there's a realness to it. I think there's a realness. So if you're at five, maybe you have a shot.

Yeah. You know? Yeah. Who's at five? The Chargers. The Chargers. The Chargers. Who also want to move back.

So then that throws a wrench into it. So the way that the top five is going to shake out because of how many teams are desperate for quarterback, because how many teams want to get on the rookie quarterback timeline is definitely worth thinking about. And look, those teams that are picking in the top three, I've also heard some chatter about them being in the veteran quarterback market to possibly try to trade back due. So there's still a lot of movement here. And, you know, I had one person say to me yesterday, too, everyone is just collecting right now. No one has made final decisions on a thing.

You guys all want it. You know, he's like, you guys all want these answers. They're not here yet because we don't even know. So, you know, as we're continuing to figure out what these teams are doing just based on the research that they're doing. There's a chance that all of this smoke about New England wanting a quarterback is New England trying to drive up the price for the number three pick as high as they possibly can.

Like Arizona met with the receiver last night, you know? So it's not like it's on there. They're aware of it, right? They have to meet with him and talk to him and see if he's a possible pick. So the rationalization would be if you don't think there's a huge gap between him and neighbors or him and Adunzei and you can get a ton to move back four picks and still get one of them, is that the right move based on Arizona's current timeline? I think those are the considerations that come into play.

Which I feel like I should just add this. I just ran into Jonathan Ganon and. right before I sat down here to do the podcast. And I had to get out of the conversation because he was chewing my ear off about how great Kyle Murray is. I had everything about him. I had a very similar conversation with a member of the Cardinal staff today. And I just thought that was so cool.

Like, I just, I love hearing a head coach, have the back of his guy and believe in him and just share all these cool details just about what a great guy is, how much he's grown, and really just how a little bit of a genius he is. The one thing that I thought, that was my takeaway from the conversation. was a lot of this portrayal of him as being a little bit aloof and a little bit disengaged, it's a boredom thing. Like when you're challenging him, he wants to be challenged and it's really enriching as a coach. But if you are not, he can get a little bit disengaged. But that's not because he doesn't want to do it or want to learn. It's that he can sometimes

get, it's almost too easy for him at times. That's incredible. Imagine being so bored with our stupidity. Is that how you feel on this show? It kind of is, actually. It kind of is. God, shut off. Let's talk about that veteran quarterback market, and let's talk about the biggest domino that has to fall with this, and that is Kirk Cousins. Crazy, right? 35 years old, coming off this Achilles, and he's the talk of the combine. But he has played so well that recently, and he was playing such a high level last year, that if you're Atlanta, if you have an offensive line that you've built, you have a set of weapons that you feel good about, your defense is ascending. If you drop in borderline top 10, that's what every single one of these teams is going to say, they can afford him. if we drop borderline top 10 quarterback play into this mix,

what does it end up equally? And I think that's why so many teams are going to talk themselves into him if they can find a way to make it work. Correct. And then it makes sense in Atlanta too, right? Because you've got Raheem Morris, who spent time with Kirk in Washington for years. You have Zach Robinson,

who obviously has the Shaw McVeigh offense familiarity, which is what Kirk is familiar with. There's not a lot of change that needs to happen. And I don't want to ever understand. undersell that because it is a big part of this process. It just makes it so much easier for everyone to understand when that language is all the same. Look, Minnesota wants to bring it back. There's no doubt.

But I think there's a world where Minnesota understands that they may have to move on. It just may not make the most business sense for them to stick with Kirk. And look, Kirk is a good businessman, you know? One of the best. He's made it clear that he loves Minnesota. There's no doubt, right? He's shown us on Instagram. He's shown us through his documentary, or not his documentary.

His Netflix show, you know, they love it. I follow his wife, Julie. She's amazing, and I want to move into their house. It's right on the lake. That fire pit looks beautiful. I'm very jealous of it. They have a peacefulness in their life that I really admire, and I don't know how to get it because they have two boys, too.

So they figured something out that I have not. But they are, their boys are wild, too, from the videos. But that being said, I don't think that matters. I think it is not historically mattered with Kirk Cousins. What has mattered with Kirk Cousins going back to Washington has been, I am going to get the best deal I possibly can based on what the market dictates. That is what he has done at every single turn. The biggest question now becomes, he's 35, his kids have been settled there for a little bit,

he's been there for a really long time, he's made $230 million playing football. So is this the priority of we have to squeeze every cent we can out of this last one or this next one? Or is this a set of circumstances where you can go to Minnesota and say, listen, let's find a middle ground that works for us. I want to be paid commensurate to what I'm worth, but I don't have to make every single dollar. Can we find common ground here? Historically, that has not been the way that him and his team have operated, but do we think this might be an exception because he's a little bit later in his career? I don't know the answer to that. I'll tell the answer. That is not it.

And I would be, that's not surprising to me. I don't get the sense that they're going to take a hometown discount on this. They're aggressive. They should be aggressive because they have interested teams. This is a different situation if Kirk is 38 coming off an injury. He wants maybe a two-year deal. That's different. That's easy. He has suitors and legit ones.

And there's suitors that I'm sure, or at least I think Kirk is on the radar of teams that haven't completely committed to bringing him in but are thinking about it. I've had a conversation. I know I had to talk with a team that brought him up in one of their meetings. So the fact that his market is as robust as it is right now, it would be bad business for him not to see what's out there as he can continue to just make so much money and maybe even have success if he gets dropped in on one of these teams that has a strong roster that are ready to win now and maybe in a better position than Minnesota. I think that there's absolutely a chance.

That's true. And so let's figure out what the practical limits for Minnesota would be. I would say it would probably be like a maybe a two-year deal so you can spread out some of the numbers, but for the most part you're paying him for one year. Let's say optimistically, that includes like $55 million guaranteed if it's that short term of a deal. Derek Carr got $100 million dollars guaranteed last year in free agency. Kirk Cousins has played at a higher level than Derek Carr recently, even if he's a little bit older. So why wouldn't you be able to get a markup on the Derek Carr contract that pays you

$45 million a year that includes more than $100 million in guarantees if you're Kirk Cousins? You probably would. I think that's probably what is going to get. So why would you consider it a short-term deal with Minnesota because it doesn't make sense given the market? So it must have been about eight years ago. I'm on television and Kirk had gotten some new.

gigantic deal and they had asked me what I thought about it and I and at the time I just didn't think Kirk was like good and I expressed my opinion and I have like four miss phone calls from Bill Parcells why is he calling me like that's weird right to call someone that much so during commercial break I call I actually thought something was like he got sick or something so I said coach what's going on he said do never talk about a man's money on television like that the market dictates how much he's paid. It has, I don't care if Kirk never throws a touchdown again, the market dictates his worth. And I never forgot it.

And so as much as I want to sit here and go, God, those numbers are so high, the market dictates it. Yeah. And with quarterbacks, it's always going to be more than you think. It's always going to be more than you think every single time. And I think this might be another example of that. So with that market in mind, what do you think is the most likely outcome? You can even get as team specific as you want to.

I think Kirk winds up leaving Minnesota. I can't turn my back on just the way he's operated in the past. And look, I've held... Do you think there's a likely suitor? I do. I think there's a real... Look, all you need is one, right? But I think he's more than one.

I think he has a really good market with teams that are willing to pay that. And look, I've had multiple conversations with him over the years, his values of family and the things that they're doing, there and a comfort in Minnesota, but I think he knows that the right thing to do is to take this money and perhaps win. Look, his wife's from Atlanta. Could that be a possibility? That would make sense. Could you go back to Washington? I mean, I don't know of that, but would that make sense to you, right? So you're Dan Quinn, you got a first, you get a new owner, first time GM, a lot of new. Now you're going to bring in a rookie? That's a lot of new everything. Why not bring in a guy

like Kirk Cousins who's been there before, knows how to win, sets the culture. Here's what I would say. And trade your pickback. Here's what I think that I understand how that makes sense to a degree. But I think that every time teams do that, when they're in a position to draft a guy and they pass on the opportunity, those opportunities are less frequent than you think they are. It's true. And so there are so many coaches that I've talked to that in the moment, we talk about quarterbacks. I'm like, well, how are you going to get one?

And their response is always like, yeah, we'll figure it out. Like, we want to be competitive and we want to build it this way. And then I'll be having a conversation with the same coach two years later. He's like, yeah, we probably should have more urgency at quarterback. Yep, unbelievable. And I just think that I've seen that song play out so many times that even if it make, and I think another really good example is San Francisco, right? San Francisco passes on Watts and they pass on Mahomes.

And then they sign Jimmy G because they have to. And now you're in this arranged marriage thing when you're operating from a position of kind of mild desperation because you didn't have another avenue to get one, when in reality, if you have a top three pick in a draft with quarterbacks and you don't have a franchise quarterback on your roster, just take the guy. You take it. Just take the guy because you don't want to be in a position two years ago where, oh, we built up the rest of the roster, we got to a moderate place,

we're an eight-win team, now you're picking 19th, and you have no avenues to a guy who could potentially be a difference maker. Yeah, I think my theory or perhaps my suggestion of Washington doing that is really probably playing a little scared knowing it's so new there. Totally. But you do that all the time. They don't want to make a splashy move in year one. And look, you have Adam Peters who's picking the quarterback.

The last quarterback he picked didn't work out too well. So maybe there's a little pressure there. Maybe that pressure could be relieved by bringing in a veteran. I don't know why I'm selling your cousins to the commanders right now. I think this is a good thought exercise because think about how truncated that timeline is. Adam Peters gets hired what? January 10th, let's say. So then you have three and a half months.

to make a franchise altering decision that will shape the next five years of your organization. That is not a lot of time. And I think that's why we've seen other organizations punt on it early because they don't think, we don't have nearly enough figured out or set up to say this is the right guy at this moment. So Josh Harris, the owner of the commanders, is here in Indy, and he's been meeting with the quarterbacks along with the rest of the front office and the coaching staff. and I think a lot of commander fans or even just fans in the NFL,

hear owner, and they immediately freak out. There's so much PTSD with Washington. Correct. There's the last thing they want. Trust me. Well aware. Well aware. I was there for all those Dan Snyder years.

So just anything where the owner, the owner can't even like text the word commanders, you know, without fans freaking out. So you bring up a phenomenal point about just not a lot of time to make a gigantic business decision. here. I think it's smart to have everyone involved. Get as many minds and people involved as possible who are going to be part of this just to get a feel for what are we going to do? And listen, I've had conversations with Washington to try to figure out what are they doing exactly. And,

you know, the good old, we're just trying to get as much information as possible sounds lazy and boring. It's the truth. I believe them. I do think they're just trying to figure out everything so they can make the best decision. Having your owner sit in on the, those conversations and being a fly on the wall and being curious about the process if he's not the one ultimately driving it, I think is a good thing, not a bad thing. Yeah, and how many quarterback interviews has he sat in on? Probably not a lot. Yes. So just to, like you said. How do my people think? What do they want to know? What does this process look like? I think that is only a good thing if you are willing to take a back seat and be a quiet voice in that room rather than the one that's

dictating the conversation. So I just want to let you know our boss, Stephen Ginsburg, is now going to join the podcast and sit and watch us. That's fine. I would love that. Shout out Ginsburg. The other guy that I wanted to talk about in this veteran quarterback conversation is Baker Mayfield, because I think we've all conceived of Baker's market as he's going to go back to Tampa. They're going to figure out a way to make this work. But should we maybe be considering Baker as the consolation prize or the alternative if a team does not go get Kirk Cousins? Because the other guy's available on the free agent market, Ryan Tannenhill's in his mid-30s,

we know what Jacoby-Perset is, James Winston's been a backup. up. Baker, in theory, is the guy at the right age where you get some runway out of him that has played at the highest level most recently of all these free agent guys. Yeah, I'll start with the negative on it, which is there are some people around the league who are saying, ah, you know, it was just a one-year thing. I think that's fair. Lightning and a bottle. You look at his career record, and there's a lot with Baker, not making excuses for him, but you take a look at the situation in Cleveland, and that was

not easy. Then obviously, with Carolina, they were, you know, they trade Christopher McCaffrey. They don't give him anything. He has a little taste of success, so to speak, with Sean McVeigh out and Los Angeles and then kills it in Tampa, which is, you know, it makes all the sense of the world for the bucks to bring him back. And they've definitely made a really good effort to do it, which is why I think most people think that that's going to happen. But it just takes one, right? It takes one team that's willing to pay the price that they believe he is worth and is more money than perhaps if Tampa's going to pay. So what does that money look like, right? If I'm his agent, I'm walking in, I'm going, hello Daniel Jones, right? And if I'm

Tampa Bay, I'm going, hello, Gino Smith. That's exactly the huge contracts that I just had pulled up on spot track. Right. So I was looking, where is the gap between those two? Explain to listeners the difference in that gap. So Daniel Jones has paid four years 160, $92 million guaranteed. If you move on after year two, it's $22 million still in dead money. If you look at his contract, is 2023 and 2004 contract years are completely guaranteed from the jump. You go to Gino Smith, three years 75, only $40 million of that is guaranteed, and you can move on after two years with very little penalty. So you're looking at different tiers of starting quarterback money.

The problem is these are the only starting quarterback contracts within this tier. So how you parse that and where you land between them, which one is he closer to, even if you look at something like H. Daniel Jones was 25 when he got that extension. Gino Smith was 33. Baker's 28. So does everything about this point to us meeting in the middle with every aspect of the contract? Or do Baker's people say, no, this is the market rate of second tier starters on extensions is the Daniel Jones deal.

That's what I want. The Gino deal is a bad contract. I'm not signing it. And I think, I believe that's probably what they're doing because they're smart and they're good. I think it's important to also mention and just remind everybody that these, teams that are trying to retain their quarterbacks, they're on the clock right now. Yeah. Right?

So it's a very high pressure situation. You know, it's technically tampering for these agents to talk to teams specifically about their players. So they're not doing that, let's say. But there's tons of chatter about the value of these guys, right? And where they are and what teams are interested. And you've got to figure these agents are smart. They're doing their homework to figure out which teams are really going to be willing to go over that price if Tampa's not willing to

pay it because look I think Baker likes Tampa from the conversations I've had with him over the last year he he's happy but again another business he's savvy he wants to be paid what he believes he's worth and look Tampa Bay has other issues too right now right Michael Evans what's the situation with him are they going to be able to retain him I can tell you right now Mike Evans is um market from what I can gather seems to be very good good right now. It should be because there aren't that many guys of his caliber that are hitting free agency 30 years old or not and he's still really, really productive. Teams with rookie quarterbacks right now. Organizations that want to go all in on these

cheap contracts right now for these young rookie quarterbacks on these rookie quarterback deals are willing to give those weapons and take a chance and maybe overpay a little even for a 30-year-old Mike Evans, right? Because that's the pushback I get sometimes from people of, well, you know, Evans probably is only going to get, you know, 15 to 19, maybe 20 tops. 100% no. After this week, talk about the opposite. I landed thinking 18 to 20. I'm leaving thinking 24 to 27.

And that's exactly what I would have thought that from the start just because I'm thinking about scarcity. And you think about the wide receiver market and free agency right now at the start. It looked pretty good. T.D.T. Higgins, Michael Pittman. All these guys, that market is going to shrink again. And we're going to get to a place where Mike Evans is in a tier of his own as a free agent receiver most likely. And that guy is going to get paid.

Christian Kirk got $18 million a year. We need to keep remembering this as we think about what those guys are going to get because there aren't that many of them available. But the point of even bringing up Mike Evans here, obviously, is because then how does that affect Baker? Because if you're Baker, do you want to go back there if Mike Evans isn't going to be there? It's Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer. Correct.

Yeah. Okay, so if you're his agent, though, if you're Baker's agent, you're going, all right, well, maybe Baker doesn't want to go back to Tampa if Mike Evans isn't there, but you have more money. And maybe that's an opportunity, right? So it depends on what side of the coin you look at it. But in terms of Baker, I know there are several teams, whether Atlanta is one of them. New England is one of them. I don't think that's going to happen, but I think these are just teams that I know that have flirted with the idea internally about perhaps, bringing him on.

Flirting with the line of those two contracts that we talked about, I think at 25 million a year, there is a pathway where you're getting surplus value out of the contract, where your quarterback outplay is that $25 million. $25 million a year is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for mid-tier quarterback play. When you get to 40, you go on the other side of that line. And I think that's what these teams are probably considering as they think about a quarterback of Baker's caliber, track record, and potential. future. And when you start ripping through the teams in terms of who is in desperate need,

it's the less than you think. I don't know why. I just was approaching it. I thought more teams were going to be in the market for a veteran quarterback. And there's not as many, which then makes it difficult for those lower tiered quarterbacks, as you're saying, like those Ryan Tannels of those, where are they going to fall? Jacoby Brissette, right? He's another one. I think a lot of those guys going to be backups this year. I think that's probably how it's going to go. Josh Jobs, right? Here's the thing, though, right now. I think a lot of these teams don't think they're in the veteran quarterback market, because if you're all the teams in that 8 to 12 range, Atlanta, Minnesota, Broncos, Raiders,

I'm sure what you're trying to convince yourself of right now is, why would we go to get an expensive veteran when there's a chance we're in range to draft one? Correct. But there aren't going to be enough draftable quarterbacks to fit all of those spots. So someone's going to have to figure out, someone's going to have to be okay with paying that veteran and just swallowing it, just saying, this is what we're doing for now. And I'm excited to see who's going to be that team. That's going to be one of the biggest questions of the next three weeks.

Let's move into some free agency, kind of bigger picture questions. I think the chiefs guys have been in front of mind for a lot of people just because, I think you reported this, other people have talked about this. Legerious Sneed, very likely to get the tag if they cannot work out a deal. And it seems to me, and this is the conversation we had, even immediately after the Super Bowl on this show, it's like, well, we're having this Sneed or Chris Jones thing. if they restructure them homes and they cut MBS, which they've already done, couldn't they, in theory, afford both of them? Does it seem like that's what we're

trending toward? I think that they're going to be able to work it out. I know they're trying, obviously, right? So they've informed them that they're going to use a tag on him if they can't get a deal done. As for Chris Jones, he has a market. Of course he does. Now, is it the market that Chris Jones wants? I don't know. I don't get a sense right now that they're there's a team that's willing to pay that Nick Bosa kind of money. There's probably ones that exist. They're out there. But for Kansas City, we've been here before.

This has been going on for a while. You know, and I think they have a number of mine that would make sense. I think this is going to go back to that Aaron Donald number again, right? Remember when we were there a year ago? I have to figure if Kansas, if Chris Jones wants to be. let's just say 30. I could see Kansas City doing 30. I think that's what they should do.

I think that's fair. Yes. That's the level that he's played at. And it's like, you're really going to like nickel and dime over like a few million dollars here and when you can win the Super Bowl every fucking year if you keep this group together. And listen, Brett Feach is,

there's a reason he's got three rings at home and I have none, right? But it still feels like this is one of those moments where like, let's just make sure we keep enough of this together. so we're ensuring every single year we have a shot because we have that difference maker on defense and that's what he still is. This stuff comes down to owners a lot of the time. I have never had a conversation with Andy Reid or Brett Veach and all the years I've covered them and ever felt like they wanted a team without Chris Jones.

He is the Patrick Mahomes of the defense, right? They know what life looks like without him. We saw it. So I think if it's up to them, they're going to try to make this happen. but at the end of the day it's not their money. And that's part of the problem here, is that we think of the chiefs as, they're the class of the NFL, and they are. But they are not one of those teams that just burning cash left and right every single year.

The fact that they didn't touch Mahomes last year, and they let him play on that cap hit, a lot of teams don't do that with these huge quarterback numbers anymore. Buffalo has never let Josh Allen play on his hit after he signed that extension because they're putting the money back into the roster. the chiefs aren't that sort of cash spending team. Correct. And even on the coaching side, which there is no cap, right?

Steve Spagnolo signs a couple days after San Francisco was flirting with him. Thinking about bringing him in his D.C. Andy Reid right now and Brett Veet are going through contract negotiations right now. They're hoping to get that done, but that's not done yet. I mean, think about how much they've won. It's still not done yet. So, again, look, if we get to lead meetings and it's not done, okay, then we're going to probably get a little concerned here. I do think that'll get done as well.

But the point of this is this isn't a team that because they win so much now, they just throw money around. Which is why I think this negotiation isn't going as clean with Chris Jones as you would expect after everything they've been through. Again, because my very simplistic way of thinking about it is like, all right, if we move some money around on the homes deal, we restructure him. You cut MVS. You've got $50 million in cap space. You can do this if you want to, but at a certain point, you have to pay out the money. That is part of this. All right.

Let's stick with a couple of these other free guys in the tag very quickly here. T. Higgins has already been tagged. What is your sense on the possibility that a tag and trade might be in play and the likelihood that T. Higgins is back in Cincinnati for at least one more year? Yeah, I think he's going to be back in Cincinnati. Look, they're going to be business savvy, and they're going to listen if there's teams that are interested in trading for him. But it's not really a Cincinnati way of doing it, right?

You never hear of them tagging in trading that way. They don't trade anyone, period. It's not their side. They don't trade draft picks. Correct. It's not really, he's, you know, Mike Brown's very old school. It's a little bit of a, putting it lightly. It's a little bit of a different philosophy there. So does it make sense financially for them to just have him play on the tag for one more year and then figure it out? Yeah, I think they can make it work. They just did this with Jesse Bates. Correct. They just did it. So it's not as if this would be outside of character. It's like, oh man, that's, that's,

strange way for all of this to play out. I think it is the most likely way for all this to play out. And look, they've got a bunch of young receivers on the roster already that they're trying to build, but I think we can all agree, you know, Higgins, he was injured a lot last year. We know that. But when he's healthy, you know, it's Jamar's show at the end of the day, but still, you know, T. Higgins is a significant part of their offense and they're going to want him back. So, look, I wouldn't be shocked if this happens, but I don't really, I don't predict this happening. Yeah, I don't think it's the most likely. I really, I really don't. So let's talk about a couple of past rushers that are slated to hit free agency,

but I think the general consensus they probably won't. And that's Brian Burns and Josh Allen. What do you think is the most likely outcome with both of those guys? I think they wind up getting deals. I think they work this out, which blows my mind because it just seems to all be taking so much time. Again, this isn't new. Carolina is very aware of Brian Burns' ability.

They know how good he is, and they know what his value. has been, and we all know by now what the Rams were willing to trade to get him back last year, and they turned down that offer. So they're committed to keeping him. It's just what is it going to shake out to be with Todd Francis as an agent who's a very, very tough negotiator. And they're in a position where they can afford to pay people. They don't have a lot of proven talent on the roster. And I think Josh Allen played at such a level last year for Jacksonville. It's like, you have to figure out a way to keep that guy. Yeah. Like you are, you have a quarterback that's still in a rookie deal. You have a decent amount of talent in the roster. You're

supposed to be a playoff team last year. Just letting that guy walk out the door when the best edge rush on your team is not going to be Trayvon Walker. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Here's where we're going to see a big shift. And it's really over the next few days because everyone on the ground here in Indianapolis is getting an idea of what their clients are worth, what the reality is based on just the chatter here from different teams. So while maybe at this point we think it's an automatic, they're returning to their teams. Maybe there's their teams out there that that are looking at them going, you know, this is the piece we've been looking for, and we're going to pay it.

The biggest impact thing that's happened this week, the thing that could change a lot of these conversations is what happened with the cap. The salary, the cap goes to $255 million, increase of $30.5 million, $13.5% in one single year. As you've talked to people about this, what is your feel about the biggest area of impact this is going to have? Sometimes I approach information when I start collecting information from different GM, and head coaches and agents to try to get a sense of their reaction to this stuff.

I love going into it stupidly, which I did this time. I went, oh my God, so much cap room. Everyone's going to be the free agency. This is going to be wild. Like I was immediately like, this is going to be a wild week. I'm going to have to meet all these people because now everyone's going to be spending. It's the complete opposite. In fact, almost every single GM I spoke to this week was like, yeah, we're not making

any changes to our draft. We're not making any changes to our free agency. Like, this is nothing. The area where you're going to see some investment. advantages now with this extra $30 million are the backup quarterbacks. It was the theme of last year. Get a backup quarterback and pay, pay the money. Well, now teams are going to use that money to secure that, even though I still feel like it's hard for everyone, despite the fact that what we see year in and year out, but I think after last year, seeing that the teams that invested and had a plan and they had success and they paid it work out.

So that's where I think you're going to see teams use that money. And you can correct them if I'm wrong here. The other feel I have is it'll be teams that are in rough positions having to make fewer difficult decisions than they thought they were going to. Where are we going to have to cut a guy that was on the line? Where we're going to have to restructure a guy that maybe we didn't want to, but in order to get compliant and have wiggle room we were going to have to have to are some of those problems and some of those decisions alleviated because you have a little bit more wiggle room to deal with.

That's absolutely what it is. So basically a lot of veterans are going to be happy, I think. Exactly. I think that's where it falls at the end of the day. Yeah, because I think there are a lot of teams, if that number hadn't gone up where, I don't know, this guy is, like Nick Chubb with Cleveland, for example, right? Perfect example. Nick Chubb is a phenomenal player.

The Browns will want him back, but you're looking at the financial realities. It's like, can we afford to have him on a $15 million a year deal? He's coming back from an injury. When do we have to restructure this? I think some of those considerations change now that the financial reality has shifted a little bit. Yeah, but it certainly was the buzz in Indy at the bars and stuff. Whenever we're just chatting about how that is going to affect philosophies and approaches to this for agency and apparently it's not.

The last thing I wanted to ask you here, you've done this for a long time. I've been doing this for a long time. This is my, I think this is my 14th combine. I started coming in 2009 when I was in college. I was doing a story about Jeremy Macklin. And so I came while I was a student at Mizzou.

And that's back when it was in the club level of the stadium. I was 21. I remember meeting John Clayton. I thought it was the coolest thing that it ever happened to me in my entire life. I think anyone who met John Clayton thought that. So that was cool. I was blown away. I was a college kid.

I was like a kid in a candy store. I've been doing this a very, very long time. Finish this sentence for me. If you have never been to the combine, what would you be shocked to learn about the combine? You're going to have conversations with people between 10 and 15 minutes and have no idea who they are.

Yet you're having the conversation as if you're friends, as if you know the person, they may even have a detail about your life. I'm so glad you're saying this because I feel like such an asshole. too often. Robert, do you know how many times I walk away and I go, who the hell is that? I have no idea who that was. And the best is my friends that are with me. You just hug them and kiss them. You showed them pictures of your kids. I'm like, I have no idea how that was. They were lovely. So I do that a lot too, where I try to remember a detail that they shared with me so I can Google something in association. I'm constantly looking at paraphernalia. Like what team emblem or if they're with an agency, which agent letter number, whatever. So I'm in the constant state of it. But I've leaned into it now. Like, I love talking to people that I don't know,

which quickly I would just like to share this. So at the Athletic, we had this wonderful summit where we all were here together in Indy. And we all work remotely, so we don't all know each other. So I just didn't want to be awkward and weird and play the game of pretending to know you. So I was like, I'm going to, I'm going to take the first step. So I told Zach Rosenblatt, hey, I'm going to be a little aggressive in this room. I'm going to go out to people and say I'm Diana. That way people tell me their name. He's like, great move. That's cool. You should do it. So the first guy I go up to, he's standing by the fruit and the coffee thing. I said, hi, how are you? I said, I'm Diana. What is your name? He's like, Ben. I said, Ben, what do you

do? What team you with? He said, the Hyatt? I said, what? I said, I work at the Hyatt. I'm just changing out the food. Like, oh, well, thanks, Ben. You do run that risk. I will be honest. This is the first time we've worked together while we've been at the combine. It has been a pleasure to watch you go by your business here. I've been fascinated by it. And you've been very... How would you describe? My husband wants to know.

He actually asked me this. He said, if someone was watching you, how would they describe how you work? I said, Tasmanian devil on drugs. The word I was going to say is relentless. It's just like, it is relentless and unceasing. And the fact that you're able to go about it that way, you're a much better person than I am. I have no shit.

Because I just start slowing down way too fast these days. People, when I've introduced to people, or you've been going up to people that I'm following behind you, people know you're really smart. And that's the thing. When you have knowledge, that knowledge is power around here because everyone wants it and they're trying to learn more. If I had to finish that sentence in one way, I would just say that it's always going, right?

Like, it doesn't matter if it's 7 a.m. at the Starbucks line. It doesn't matter if it's 4 a.m. somewhere in a bar. It's always going. Like, the conversations are endless in a very fun way. Like, the one thing I've learned about this week and the one thing I've gotten better at is do more work in advance, setting stuff up in advance. But the conversations that I now get to have at 10 a.m. over coffee with a coach I've never. ever met before. It's right for that. And I just love it. I just, I love this week because of that. You're learning so much. You're getting a sense of who people are that you might not know, getting a sense of not only what teams will do, but like how certain coaches think and how they approach these things. So it's one of my favorite weeks. It doesn't matter if I'm sleep deprived.

It doesn't matter if I poorly scheduled my flight home from Mexico to get here way too early. It truly doesn't matter. I love this week every single year. I call it the step and shit convention because you don't plan on meeting these people and you just step in it. You're like, the best people I've met in football I have met at the Combine, and it was never set up. It was in the elevator at the Starbucks line,

sharing an Uber, and some of them have become friends for life. So it's a lot of work. It's exhausting, but it's, for those who don't have this type of thing in their workplace, it's basically just like a bachelor party or a bachelor party. But with work. A massive turned-up convention.

Correct. That is what it feels like. And guess what? I get excited about that convention every single year because there's always endless shit for us to dig into and talk about. Diana Rossini, always great to do this with you. It is wonderful to see you again, and we will do this again very soon. This was awesome.

Guys, that's all we got. Just a heads up. No football GM this week. Randy and Mike are taking this and next week off. They will be back and ready and raring to go juiced up for free agency when we get there. But we will have a show coming your guys's way on Monday. A little combine recap with Dane and Nate talking about all the drills and other important stuff that nominally the combine is about, but we don't talk a lot about it during the week because everything is starting on the weekend. So please come back and check that out.

And then guess what? Next week, we're digging into pre-free agency conversations because that's where we are. It is already going to be March. Very, very excited about that. As always, guys, sincerely appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show. Thank you.