The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The Market for NFL Wide Receivers (With Mina Kimes)

Episode Date: March 29, 2024

The market for the NFL’s elite wide receivers could soon explode again, with Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb both eyeing big pay days. Robert Mays connects with ESPN’s Mina Kimes to survey the current market for the NFL’s wide receiver talent, for both top and second tier players, and how it relates to the incoming wide receiver class in this year’s draft.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Join to me today from ESPN, one of our favorite guests here on the show. It's Mina Kimes. I wanted to have this discussion on the show for a while, just because I think that it's influenced so many different aspects of team building, and especially this offseason, it feels like there are a lot of different layers to it.

And I saw you, I think talking about it on Levittar show maybe a couple weeks ago. And I was like, yes, Mina is the person I want to have this discussion with because clearly she has been thinking about this as well. And that is the movement in the wide receiver market. Whether that's the top of the market, the draft classes coming in, so many different areas where there's a push and a poll happening. It feels like this offseason specifically, there have been a lot of inflection points to discuss as it relates to wide receiver value and where you have to find those guys. It's something that's been on my mind for, I want to say a couple years now, really once I feel like it became clear that this trend of rookie wide receivers being awesome was not just a one or two year aberration and was actually something that I feel like you could count on.

We're going to talk about this rookie class and its potential to be historically good, which I think is a pretty consensus opinion. But even you can look at last year's class, I don't think was characterized that way. but then you look at how good the receivers were immediately, how many of them were good, and it seems undeniable to me, Robert, like, this is here to stay. I was looking back through just the last, you look at it in chunks of like five or six years,

not trying to be swayed by one or two draft classes. And if you look at it from 2018 to 2023, so the last five years, 23 receivers have been drafted since 2018 that had at least 1,500 receiving yards over their first two years. So if you look at that number, so that's 750 yards a season on average, essentially. And if you go and you look at number two receivers around the NFL, that's about what you're getting. You know, it's between 750 to 900 yards.

So if you can pay that guy $4 million on whatever his rookie contract is, if you're getting him from 15 to 20, two guys from last year, he has Flowers and Jordan Addison. That's pretty much where their production was, and they're making $4 million against the cap. If you can get that, paying receivers, paying veteran receivers becomes less, smart and less prudent. So that's just one example of like an area where I feel like there's so many guys coming in, but receivers are more valuable than ever. So the pushes and the polls, they almost feel contradictory to one another at this point. But I think that's why this conversation is interesting. You know what it kind of reminds me of. So I'm looking to buy

house right now, or sort of considering it, which is really not great with mortgage rates. But anyways, so on one hand, like, because of mortgage rate is the most watched, by the way, like we're in our 30s conversation. I'm very much on this wave like, though. I've had a lot of conversations about this exact thing recently. Okay. Well, like, because of mortgage rates, it seems like, okay, it's not a good time to move. So thus, it would seem like hosy prices would drop and there'd be a lot of options. But because it's not a good time to move, there aren't a lot of options out there. so houses are still really expensive. Does that analogy make sense?

It's not like perfect, but it's like there's reasons why receivers should be cheaper because it would seem like, you know, the ability, as we've just discussed, to move on to a rookie would suppress values. However, values are still high. And I think there's, as you said, some factors contributing to that.

So let's get into maybe why those values are getting driven up. And I think that I'll start at the top of the market, because that is where something is, going to change here this offseason. I was looking back at some of the history. And in 2016, the wide receivers at the top, top, top of the market, whether it was AJ Green, Julio Jones, those guys who had just gotten second contracts. So these are true, like, at the peak of their value sort of deals. Guys were making about 10% of the salary cap, a little bit less. And now, that number is almost irrelevant when you look at the top of the market. There are a dozen guys in the

NFL making 10% of the cap right now at wide receiver. And then that's before we're even going to see the jump that happens with the Justin Jefferson CD Lamb tier of things when that happens this offseason. So as you're thinking about just the most important points of movement in the market, who are the guys that have come to mind for you? I think what I keep waiting for is that second tier of receiver to not sign a big deal, I guess. So to that end, for me, seeing Calvin really get the contract that he did this offseason, pull it up, it's like 92. million, right? Yeah.

That, I thought, was very meaningful because that, I would not have projected that. I think most people were pretty surprised by that. I guess you can point to the Christian Kirk contract. Just the AFC Southman, not that long. And people thought that they were going to sign Calvin Ridley as well. So it's like, I don't know what's going on in that division. But those are contracts where, again, to me, Robert, like, it's not surprising. Like when Justin Jefferson makes 30 plus million, we can talk about that.

I don't think anyone is going to back. and I. But when we're trying to talk about where this market is going, whether or not teams are accounting for the success of young receivers, it's a deal like the Ridley deal that makes me, and I think he's a good player, but it makes me confused, I guess, or makes me feel like, okay, what is going on here with supply and demand? Why is this contract coming in at this number, despite the fact that there are factors that would seem to be conspiring to keep it down? It's interesting. The Titans are a good example of this because I think they're a good test case. If you look at where they're drafting, they easily, that easily, because we don't know where those top three receivers are going to go.

But hypothetically, let's say they could have picked a receiver at seven. You could argue that it's harder to find a Calvin Ridley level tackle in free agency than it is to find a Calvin Ridley in free agency. So this idea of we'll pay Calvin Ridley $23 million. We'll be able to use the seventh overall pick on a left tackle. I still think that's a better approach to position scarcity than the flip side of it, because that level of tackle probably isn't going to even be available in free agency. Yeah, but you would think, again, given the success of these rookies, we're not just talking about 1.7. Like, when I think about the Titans and their approach to team, yeah, undeniably chalk, tackle, seven, book it, maybe the most obvious pick in the entire NFL draft.

But they have other picks? I mean, you know, like I understand Ridley is more of a sure thing than he, whoever you would get in the second round. But a lot of the receivers that we've been talking about who have had success were not drafted in the first route. Like this is not just a top of the draft trend. Like we're seeing guys taken in the certainly second half of the first round, but even beyond who are having a ton of success.

So you mentioned Justin Jefferson. Let's talk about that top of the market and how that's going to take shape here over the next several months. Because if you look at where it exists right now, Tyree Kill was at the top at $30 million a year. and when I mentioned before, eight or nine years ago, there was nobody making 10% of the cap. That Tyree Kill deal was almost 12% of the cap. And part of that, though, is it's propped up by this monstrous cap hit in 2027.

So that 30 isn't necessarily real. The Justin Jefferson deal, if it is close to Nick Bose's contract, which I feel like that's what I would try to chase if I were his people, then there's a chance that that's a real $33 to $34 million a year contract, which represents a very big general. in the wide receiver market, even over what Tyree Kill is making right now. So you said that. You wouldn't blink an eye at that.

So I think that's interesting. Is that that group of guys, Justin Jefferson, Tyree Kill, C.D. Land. You think that is just a no questions asked. Those guys are worth $33 to $34 million a year. I'm not even going to consider an alternative. I think for the Vikings, yes. I am not sure,

and this is going to be put to the test with the Cowboys imminently, but certainly if you have a team, and this is why you have to look at these things kind of in context, right? If you're a team that's about to go to a rookie quarterback the way that they most likely are, yeah, no question. You give Justin Jefferson everything's asked for it.

I think though, because we're interesting is if you're, let's say, okay, the dolphins are about to pay Tua, you know, the Cowboys alluded to this with DAC. So if let's say you're making that decision knowing you're about to pay, I guess Jamar Chase is probably a good example for that. He actually is probably a good case study for this. And like, how do you view him? How do you view him?

So yeah, I guess the rookie quarterback makes it easier. But even if you're paying your quarterback the way the Bengals are, I do think that there's a tier of wide receiver where they, so much of what you do on offense is predicated on their, ability. And while we're talking about the ability to find very, very good receivers and, you know, with potentially upside to get there in the draft, once you know that and once you have it in hand, I do think it is worth paying that group of receivers, that kind of money. But it's not a large group. No, I think it's a small group. I think there's probably like four or five guys, maybe a little bit

more that deserve that sort of treatment. And the Bengals are interesting because I don't think we've seen a team where it's a quarterback making top of the market money and they pay two receivers. Because that's going to be the question is that can you afford two of these guys? Because the only teams that have really been able to do that over the last four or five years, this is anecdotal. I should have written this down. But the Chargers paid Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both of them make one A, one B money. And then the Bucks did that with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But those teams did that without a quarterback making top, top money. Justin Herbert was on a rookie contract. And Tom Bray,

Brady was on that weird deal that he signed that was probably less than he should have signed for and free agency. So a team on that full freight rookie quarterback extension where you're paying top of the market, they've never, I don't think a team like that has ever paid two receivers. And that's what the Bengals are doing right now with T. Higgins. So at a certain point, you're going to have to make a decision of we want one guy. And the Vikings get to counterbalance Justin Jefferson's deal, which are in Addison on a rookie contract.

So I think that's going to become a conversation as we get a little bit further is teams having to walk away from that second guy. Like, are the dolphins going to have to do that with Jayle and Wado? We don't know. We would have yet to see that happen. Yeah. Yeah, right with it. Yeah, I think like the two-track approach that the Vikings have taken is the way probably

most teams should approach this if you have one of those guys. That's why, like, if I was Cincinnati, I would probably move off of, I mean, well, that's complicated by what can you get for him Higgins. And it seems like, you know, the draft attorney isn't going to make it work with it versus the cost of just like, or the potential to just go all in on the offense this year. But they should probably draft a receiver because he's probably not going to be a Cincinnati Bengal next year. Jbar Chase will. He'll be making a zillion dollars.

I don't know what the deal is. I think Tyler Boy is still for Asia right now. So like it does seem like that's a team where, you know, like you kind of want to go the path that Minnesota has set themselves on. Now, the big difference, which you just said is the Bengals are paying, they're the very beginning of Joe Brough's massive contract where the Vikings, you do have some flexibility because they're not going to, they're going to draft a rookie quarterback.

So if that group is like, okay, we understand that. We'll pay Justin Jefferson 33, 34, we'll pay C.D. Lamb. We'll pay Jamar Chase. What about the group that's one tier down from that? Because there are a lot of guys in that group that are currently up for extensions.

So if you're the Lions and you're looking at Amman Rae St. Brown, or if you're the Texans and you're looking at Nico Collins, where do you think that number should land in order for it to fit within your larger team building plan? I think with Collins, I guess both of them to some degree, but again, different, because they're different phases of their team. Like the Lions are going to have to get Jared Goughan extension, whereas the Texans have a ton of time with C.J. Stroud, that makes it easier for them to get a deal done with Collins. I mean, ideally with Collins, I think with both of them, you'd probably want to come in in like around where Michael Pittman ended up. I don't have that. It was like mid-20s, right?

It's like $23 million a year. Him and Ridley are actually in like a pretty similar spot. Yeah, I think you would. It's funny, though, because, like, I actually like both of those players a bit more than Pitman and Ridley, especially in the context of their offenses and their teams. I mean, I'm going to Ramosan-St. Brown's such an interesting one, Robert, because I would argue he's more valuable on the Lions than any other football team. So in that way, like, his market is probably smaller than maybe it would be.

But in another way, like, he is so important to what they do. to the kind of quarterback that Jared Gough is and where he likes to throw the football, that you have to keep this offense rolling. We just saw it's an office perfectly capable of making the Super Bowl. You do have to keep him in the building. So maybe you pay him a little bit more because of that. And because your other skill players are on rookie contracts.

Again, you're like looking at these things, you know, not just as an isolated thing. Like, yes, he'll be making a lot. But you have Gibbs, Leporta, and Williams all on their rookie deals for at least two more years. So it makes more sense for them to give him more money because of where they are as a football team. So I understand that approach where it's like, okay, that Pittman contracting, that's a good place to start if you're in that tier of guys. But let's say that Justin Jefferson and C.D. Lamb end up getting 33 or 34 million.

If I'm on Ross St. Brown's agent and the guys at the top of the market are making 33, there's no chance in hell. I'm taking a multi-year extension for 23. And I think that's where some of the sticking points are going to arise here. But if you actually look at it, and I know these numbers sound crazy when we throw them out. But let's say, hypothetically, Amon Ross St. Brown gets a deal for $30 million a year. Against a $255 million cap, that's 11.5% of the cap. And that actually falls in line with where those Terry McLaur and Debo, Samuel, and D.K. MECAP deals were in 2022.

So while $30 million for not a truly elite, elite receiver sounds nuts, I actually think. we're getting to a place where it might start making sense based on how the rest of the market is going to go. Yeah. And it is one of those things where, again, it might be an overpay on some teams and it's not for Detroit, which is such a weasily way to talk about contracts on my part. But I genuinely believe it's true from a football standpoint and from a roster construction standpoint. Yes, they're about to pay Jared Gough.

I don't know where that'll come in. That's all we can do an entire podcast on that. but they're a young football team. There's some contracts coming down the pike for sure, but you have the ability to pay him right now. This is what differentiates you from where the Bengals are with Higgins. Higgins is a great fit on the Bengals. He's great for what they do on offense,

but it just might not make sense because of their needs. And also, you know, the success or lack thereof in the draft. This is what enables you to do these contracts. speak if you have drafted well the way Detroit has you said you know if Kim's in at 30 i don't think that would be crazy for them but if it was another team i would definitely be like a little bit more suspicious and the Nico Collins thing i think is probably a similar conversation because if c j stroud is on that rookie deal and you feel like he is kind of creeping up to being like a top 12 receiver in the league and you have the financial flexibility are you going to play hard

ball with him or if that's where that market settles for those kind of one B-ish type players, are you going to feel comfortable paying it? And this is, these are the decisions, like, these are the real world decisions these teams are going to have to make? Are you just going to walk away from Nico Collins when you're in what you consider a contending window? Probably not. But the market for a player like that has gotten to a place that I think the sticker shock is going to be very real for some people. Yeah, I mean, I also really like the ego Collins. I think I'm like, so do I. Yeah, I think he's such a good football. both. And I've liked, I actually thought he was good before last year. I was like a big fan of his and it was fun for me to watch.

Like I think he's a true number one. I think he's ascending. I think he is not at the level of the players that we talked about. But I actually think he has the potential to get pretty damn close, especially playing with Stroud, obviously. But yeah, it's, I think that for these teams, the ones on rookie with quarterbacks on rookie contracts, it's not that controversial or it's a lot. easier. I think it because, like, a team where it's like a more difficult, Higgins is obviously one where it's like a more difficult decision. But when you think of the team like, I don't know, let's say the Seahawks with D.K. Metcalfe, who like that contract's going to wrap up sooner rather than later. They just extended title lock. He's probably going to finish his career as a Seahawk. You have a, you know, you pick 20. You had Jackson Smith and Jigba. At a certain point, though, that's going to be a difficult decision because he's sort of in that range that we're discussing. And you don't have a quarterback on a rookie contract.

I think those are the teams where it becomes a lot trickier to decide what to do, especially, again, knowing that you can dip into the draft and probably get good production. Maybe not that level of production, but good production. We haven't really seen a team walk away from that caliber of receiver recently, though. And I mean, because I think that's part of this is that I'm looking at the numbers that guys are getting in free agency. We can talk about that in a second. But it does feel like even if the top of the market guys, are going to get paid. There is a middle class and maybe down slightly below the middle class

that's getting squeezed now because teams aren't willing to pay for a true number two or a number three because they can get that for free in the draft. But if a team walks away from a DK Metcalf type player, he would be the best guy to hit free agency at receiver in how long? I mean, like Calvin Ridley is the best one in the last couple years. So I think that is something the teams haven't been willing to do even if you can make an argument that they should be willing to do it at some point. Yeah, it's been trades, right? The Hill trade is the closest thing we have to a team saying, no, we're good. We have so many other needs on our team. We need draft capital. We also believe we have a quarterback who makes everyone around him better, which is, you know, not really,

we don't have to entertain that whether there's anything like replicable there. But they are a team also that looked at the draft and said, okay, we're going to draft guys. And it hasn't really, it worked out with Rishi Rice, but they've had misses, you know, and I think that's sort of like a bit of a, a bit of the warning story because it's easy for us to say, yeah,

you can get, you know, anyone in the second round and he'll give you 800 yards or whatever, but the chiefs are, you know, have had misses. There are a couple of teams that have had misses that come to mind, but they're the one that comes to mind

as a team that said, okay, we're going to just try to go rookie here and spend our money elsewhere and draft and get draft picks. And it's funny to say this about, team that won the Super Bowl, but it did not work out. But it did in a different way. For every Rishi Rice, there has been a Skymore, I think, for all of these teams.

The idea that the Titans could just trade AJ Brown and then use that first round pick to replace AJ Brown, that's where the Trail on Brooks thing comes in. Everything is not going to be the Stefan Diggs for Justin Jefferson one for one trade. But you're right. Every guy that has been acquired as a veteran over the last four or five years, it's been a truly, like, decidedly above average player, has been via trade. and some teams have been able to backfill that production and some teams haven't. So I want to talk about that, though, because this idea of, all right, if you have to acquire

these guys via trade because they're not hitting free agency, where is the breaking point there? And I think the one hypothetically that people have been throwing out right now is Brandon Ayuk. Okay. So if you're trading for Brandon Ayuk, if you're a team like the Jaguars, are you better positioned to trade the 17th overall pick for Brandon Ayuk and pay him $30 million or show? should you just take your chances with Brian Thomas with the 17th overall pick? Which is the better path between those two in this hypothetical world? Yeah, because right, because when you're baking into the cost,

you have to consider both the draft capital you've given up and the extension. So Brandon Ayup is more expensive than if he was a free agent. I think this is one where they're picking matters a lot and how I personally view this receiver class to be a candid. Like if they were picking in the top nine, I would definitely say just roll with one of the rookies because I think there's a pretty, this is just my view of this receiver class. I do feel like there's actually like a pretty significant tier drop from one to two for me after, you know, the big three, neighbors Harris, a junior in a Tuesday. Not in that order for me. So when you're talking about a Brian Thomas Jr. versus an IUC plus the draft capital and the contract, I would rather have bread. in Ayyuk. But I'm also

very high on Ayyuk. I don't know. I can't. Sometimes I feel like I alone there. I don't know. I don't get it. But he's been one of my favorite players in the league for like multiple years. I think he's in that like top 10ish conversation. So maybe again, that's, this is where I'm interested in. Where are the lines? Where do

the lines get drawn here? If you're over that line, are you just a no brain or first round pick plus the extension guy? I think Brandon Ayuk might be. It really was a free agent, but I would rather have have a few of the rookies even beyond that first tier than Ridley on his contract personally.

Now, it's a little bit different because the Titans have the money to spend and whatnot, and they're going to spend pick seven on an offensive lineman. So I'm just saying, but you're asking me like about players. That's a good example for me where I view IU differently from how I view Calvin Ridley, where I'd rather take the rookie for me, rather than either pay him a ton of money

or certainly trade. It's not what happened, but trade for a player like that. Yeah, and I think that's fair. And if you look at Ridley, I wanted to look at some of the free agent contracts that have been handed out recently because it does feel like that Christian Kirk deal two years ago sent the market into upheaval a little bit. I mean, the Tyree Kill trade happens because the Christian Kirk contract got signed. Tyree Kil looked around and this doesn't make any sense. If he's getting 18 million, we need to do something here. And that deal, the Christian Kirk one is aged better than people expected. But I still think there was a telling moment in how people were paying the position. And if you look at 21 and 22, six wide receivers got multi-year free agent deals that cracked at least 6% of the salary cap. And that may not seem like a lot, but it was Christian Kirk, Alan Robinson, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Nelson Aguar. Over the past two years, it's just been Calvin Ridley.

There has not been a single other receiver that got a multi-year contract with an AAB that was at least 6% of the cap after we got six of them over a two-year span. because I do think teams are becoming a little bit more apprehensive about giving out contracts to guys in that range because that's the type of player that you'll be able to find

if not in the first round that maybe even in the second or third round. The Jags have right now guess are they come in on spending on water receiver? I wouldn't be surprised if it was like in the top three. It's fifth. Yeah, okay.

All right. And that's just Gabe Davis and Calvin and Christian Kirk and say, I guess, yeah. You know, at the beginning, I was like, there's some things are happening

in this market that I don't understand because of the rookie contract dynamic. And the Jags are the team that I'm thinking about. I'm talking about. Like, I don't understand.

The way I think about this is there's that really, really top tier of receiver. And if you can get them and pay them a ton of money. And, you know, MECAP is like, with the Seahcks,

it's mostly because they have a first round draft pick and Tyler Lockett's on an extension. Mechaf's not making like insane money. But they're all premium players. The diners are kind of surprisingly up there as well, right now because the Debo deal, but the, you know, I guess it's because

the other way, the Cowboys, the Dolphins, obvious. And then the Jags. And it's just like, it's, that's where I get confused because I just don't understand why. And it's funny because like the Davis line, like the Davis deal isn't, what was like 13 million a year? There's 13 million a year. That's not that much.

Like, it's not crazy. It's more just the total tricker of it. And I'm with you on that. And I think that the $13 million a year for Gabe Davis is also a telling number. because if that game Davis contract gets handed out two years ago, I think he makes more. I think he makes more against the cap two years ago than he would right now because I think that exact type of player, the one that I really took notice of when we were looking at free agency and how guys got paid.

Jacobi Myers only making $11 million a year last year as a free agent. I think Jacobi Myers makes significantly more than that if he's a free agent two years earlier. But I think that what's happened in the draft, and especially with this, this draft class specifically, they're just teams we're not going to pay wide receivers in free agency because they can find replacements. So I think that's the group that ultimately is going to get squeezed. If there's a line where Justin Jefferson and C. Lamber at the top and that group of Amon Rae St. Brown, I, Yuk, Nico Collins is right behind that and those guys continue to get paid. It's the guys one step down from there, the ones who would be making somewhere between 15 and

23 million in a previous world and how we allocated resources. I don't think those guys are going to be getting those sorts of contracts anymore. And I think that's how free agency played out this year outside of Calvin Ridley. Yeah. I would say this class was not great. There weren't like that many. Like I'm trying to think of like a receiver where a deal came in and I was like, ooh, that's so much less than I thought it would be.

I don't know. There weren't that many like bar. I didn't see that many signings that like blew me away in terms of like being bargains. But I think that's just more just there weren't that many players at the position that hit free agency, which is another thing that's happening by the way, right? That's another hugely important things are mentioned. Yes. There aren't guys hitting free agency at that position.

I mean, I think that's part of this is that because there's so much scarcity, you're going to have guys making the guys that are worth keeping. The guys that are in that first and second tier, those contracts are going to be healthier than we might think they should be because teams aren't going to be willing to let those guys walk because there aren't alternatives on the market. So that's another area where it's just like I don't know what to make of that necessarily. Let me ask you a question. What's a team where you look at the way they built their wide receiver room, the combination of veterans, rookies, contracts, and you think that's the model. Or like, given the dynamics of this market,

the way these rookies are producing so well, the fact that, you know, you have to, like, 11 persons out, well, I mean, up and down, whether it's the norm, but you do need three very good wide receivers in today's NFL. Is there any team that, out to you as being a team that is doing it the right way? This is going to maybe a cop-out answer. But the one that I would throw out,

I'm interested in what the Lions have done. And not necessarily because I think Jameson Williams is a great player, but I think the way that they approach this, where they picked a guy in the fourth round who became like a premium type of player, which is possible, right? It's not the easiest way to find one. But every draft or every couple drafts,

we got third, fourth round picks that are instant producers, tank Dell, Pooka, Amon Ross St. Brown when he got drafted in the fourth round and then you spend a premium premium pick on a receiver the way they did on Jameson Williams and they spent a second round pick on Sam Leporta. So you are kind of you're attacking it on multiple different fronts with premium picks and mid-level picks

because you can find guys in all of those ranges. So I think that's an interesting way to do it. I've appreciated the way that the Packers have done it just because it's so far from what other teams are trying to do, them going as young as they did and essentially saying these guys are going to sink or swim, they can figure it out. I think there's probably some justification building it that way.

I mean, the Packers last year had a top 10 passing offense with, I would assume, the lowest cap spend at receiver in the NFL, we're probably in the bottom three. So I don't know if there is a best way to do it at this point. Do you have one where you think that's like the ideal model right now? Yeah, I think, well, Packers right now, it's $10 million, there's his third lowest. The charges and the Steelers who have gotten rid of their receivers are below them, but that'll change. And the lions are very low.

It's about to pop up. To our discussion about the top of the market and then the rookies, teams that either have one of those top eight receivers, whether they're paying them already, they're about to pay them. And then pairing that with a premium draft pick at receiver seems to bear a lot of fruit.

I think about Vikings, I loved that they drafted Jordan Addison. I liked the player a lot, but I love that they drafted him. They're not just thinking, okay, we're set at receiver with Justin Jefferson. It's like, no, we're about to pay Justin Jefferson, and then we won't be able to pay money at the position. So let's spend one of our premium draft picks and try to give put it. And we're also an offense that wants to attack downfield. Let's get another very good receiver in there.

The other thing I like about that is if you have a premium receiver, you know that one of these top eight guys, they're going to draw a disproportionate amount of attention. There's so much opportunity. So if you have a Addison, a Devante Smith in Philadelphia, a Jameson Williams in Detroit, the presence of another true number one, you have the potential to really like to be a force multiplier in your offense. And so if you have a younger receiver in that situation, the three teams I mentioned, there's so much opportunity there as a result of that. I wonder, though, those teams that have done that because the Bengals are another good example of that where Jamar Chase was a top five pick. Tehiggins, I think was a 33rd pick in the draft. the Eagles drafted a receiver in the first round after trading for AJ Brown or before trading for AJ Brown.

And then obviously the Niners had Debo and then drafted Brennan I yuk in the first round. The issue, though, is if you spend those premium picks and both of those guys hit, what are you eventually going to do when it's time to pay one of those guys? Because we haven't seen a team like we mentioned have to do that yet. But the argument on the other side is if both of those guys do hit, you can trade one of them. Before you have to pay the other one, you can trade one. of them. And I think that's exactly where the Niners are. Right. Like, it's a tough spot to have to pay Iyuk and Debo. But if they can get a second round pick for Debo Samuel, then that gives you an opportunity

to potentially draft another Debo Samuel. So I think as that plays out and as we see teams try to navigate the finances of that, that's going to be fascinating to watch because we really haven't yet. The Bengals and the Niners are in the same spot right now. I was just about to say that then And the question is, should the bankals have traded T. Higgins last year? I see why not. This is a team that thought they were going to be a Super Bowl contender before their quarterback obviously went down for an injury. But if they were really trying to maximize their roster,

thinking short, medium, long term, it had to have been on the table. I don't remember hearing rumors of like what was, if there was anything offered. And, you know, Higgins is kind of a tricky one because I think he's not a consensus number one. So, you know, it's easy for us to say, well, why wouldn't you get like a, you know,

a first round pick for T. Higgins? Well, I don't know if that was available to them. It's clearly not now. Otherwise, I think he would not be on Cincinnati Bengals. But it does seem like something, if you're one of these teams, you really have to consider, if you're a team where you have to,

you know you're only a year removed from having to pay more than one of these players, you probably, from a team-building perspective, should very seriously be considering moving on. So what do you think, why wouldn't they trade T. Higgins now? Because before last year, I get it. You think you're going to win the Super Bowl. He has two years left on his rookie deal.

This is your window to do this. I get pushing it in last year. But even now, if you could potentially get a two for him, or even like a three for him, I do think that is a smarter team-building approach than saying, we can win the Super Bowl this year, so we're going to keep him and get the comp pick later.

I think that is just a short-sighted way to approach this. The only explanation I can think of is that there must not be a good draft pick on the table because it seems like it's something they should obviously do, especially if it's like the Panthers high too. You should do that if you're Cincinnati. And again, like it's as far as repeating, especially because when we talk about the production

of working-y-ride receivers and how many of them are able to contribute immediately. You and I am talking about that from a financial standpoint, but it's also, again, when you think about that, from a roster construction standpoint, and you think about all of the positions where players who are on rookie contracts don't play well, the inability, apparently, of teams to find linebackers in the draft to play well.

The fact that, you know, until recently, a tight end takes a second to get going. safety, frankly, is another position where you're not a notice. So if there's one position where you can save a ton of money, you can get a player who can come and play well. And in doing that, money, you can take those savings and allocate it elsewhere positions you actually need where veterans are more likely to outplay those rookies. I don't understand. I'm genuinely

befuddled why more teams don't seem to embrace that dynamic when it comes to the receiver position. You mentioned the Panthers. I think this is worth playing out with the T. Higgins conversation specifically. If you're Carolina, would you trade the 39th overall pick for T. Higgins and give him the Calvin Ridley contract? The Calvin Ridley contract? Yeah. I think I would too.

And if I were the Bengals, I think I would take that. I would take the 39th overall pick and just start over because I think those two teams, again, they're in such different places with the financial situation. the Panthers can afford to pay T. Higgins. De Jante Johnson's walking next year anyway. But I do think that line right there where it's a true second round pick plus a plus a market extension, it's a conversation. Because the Bears just did this with Montez Sweat, right? Where they traded the 40th overall pick and gave Montes Sweat of $25 million year extension.

There aren't that many edges, though. There is not a surplus of edges the same way there are with wide receivers. So I think it's a slightly different conversation. Yes. it's absolutely a different conversation because I think you're less likely to have an edge come in and play the way Montez Sweat did. Certainly, in this draft,

it kind of goes back to where we're talking about. If you're at a position with preven production like that and it's a position where a lot of draft picks don't come in and play well immediately, to me you should be infinitely more valuable to these teams. But the Panthers, like you mentioned the Panthers, they're unique. Like I took a pause and I said yes.

Part of the reason I said yes is not necessarily because of the value of Higgins and the draft pick. But if Rice Young doesn't play well, everybody's losing their jobs. So this is beyond, you know, the people who are in the building. I'm just saying like that team has to be so laser focused

on one thing that T. Higgins is probably worth more to them than he is to other teams. So if you threw out another team, I might say no to that, to be honest. And you could make an argument that the Titans are probably in a similar spot. Like if they believe in Will Levis and they want Will Levis to succeed

or they think they want answers on Will Levis sooner rather than later, even if $23 million is a year to pay a lot for 30-year-old Calvin Ridley, they're in a spot where they could potentially afford it and it fast-tracks their ability to get information on their quarterback plan. I think the reason why I was surprised by that

and I don't know how your reaction, I don't know if you had a similar, huh, okay, is because I think everyone knows that that's the score with Bryce Young. I think I didn't know that Tennessee necessarily prioritized that with Levis, the way you're just describing.

I think they've sent us a message that they do, but that was genuinely surprising to me. I was also surprised by that because I just didn't know we had, it's kind of a new regime, and that's why these teams where the GM stays and the coaching staff comes in and is new, it's hard to know how much they value the picks of a previous regime.

Or is it a previous regime because the front office is the same. So trying to parse that and figure it out is always difficult. But I think the Titans have shown us that they're trying to build around Will Levis. The Ridley contract, though, looking at the numbers on it, I know it's high. But if you look at the $23 million a year and you compare it to other wide receiver deals recently over the last like three or four years, it really is just a markup on like what Chris Godwin and Mike Williams got in 2022. And it's actually a smaller percentage of the cap than those guys.

And those contracts were like 1B slash high end number two receivers. So if you characterize the Ridley contract that way, where it really is just the inflation influenced 1B wide receiver contract, I think it's a little bit easier to stomach under those terms. How do you view him as a player? I think one, I think 1B is correct. Because this is a big part of the reason why I'm struggling with him is like, like Robert, I don't, I thought his tape last year was all over the place.

I mean, it was, there were highs and lows for me. The fact that you have to be conscious, and we talked about this so much on the show last year, the amount of fucking Jaguars football I watched last year for no apparent reason, I still am like regretting it. But the fact that you can't just line him up as your ex-receiver and just let him go to work, I think that is really telling. But isn't that true of Chris Godwin, right? Like, wouldn't you say the same thing about a guy like that who's,

He plays majority of snaps in the slot. He's not that guy because Mike Evans can be that guy. But when the bucks gave Chris Godwin $20 million a year, I don't think anyone was sneezing at that, even though he's not like a true number one, quote, unquote. I don't know. But also, Calvary, at least 30, and Chris Godin was 24 when he got that deal.

There's that. And then there's a difference between a team, like, let's say the Titans signed Chris Godwin to that deal. You know, I think it would probably invite a different, reaction. A lot of the response, too, is not just like if the Patriots who were probably in the running for Ridley had signed him, I think we would have all been like, okay, that's a team that's so desperate for a number one right receiver. They've been that way for a while. This rookie quarterback's going to come into a terrible situation. They're trying to give him

some ammunition to make it more palatable. I get that. I think some of the reaction isn't just about the player a little bit. It's more about like, oh, this team views themselves differently from how a lot of us viewed them perhaps. And they have different goals maybe from what I would have thought. He's a good player though. And it's not like an insane contract by any means. I think it's just these are the contracts

where when you start thinking about the replaceability and the value relative rookie deals, it just becomes a little bit trickier for me. Yeah, because you could potentially find that guy at 40 who could give you, let's say, 75% of what Calvin Ridley can get you for 10% of the price. and I think that's the calculus the teams are going to have to enter into.

With Ridley and Tennessee, though, and I know this is a short-term way of thinking about it because who knows how long Diadre Hopkins is going to be there, but I think about his fit within that receiving core, the same way I was thinking about his fit with the Jaguars. In my mind, the only reason the Gabe Davis signing makes sense is if you're going to bring back Calvin Ridley. Because the entire point of having Gabe Davis is

you can just feed him to the outside corner as your ex-receiver and let Calvin Ridley fill the role he's supposed to. And because of D'Andre Hopkins, I do think you can allow Calvin Ridley to operate that way within the Titans' offense because you have a true X in that system. Yeah. Well, I think that another thing that maybe is worth getting at, too,

with regards to the rookie receivers is, you know, we're kind of lumping them all in together. But until, you know, over the last six or seven years, when there's really been this trend of like this unbelievable pro-production, there haven't been that many like true X receivers, like true big-bodied boundary receiver. Like there's... Yeah, that's true.

That looks a little different in this draft, so I'm like almost reluctant to bring that up. But I think archetypes also factor into this. Again, like when you're thinking about this position and you're asking the question, why is this going the way of the running back where like contracts are coming way down because of the, you know, the replaceability factor?

I do think it's not just that teams need more of them, obviously, and that's the single biggest reason why, but also they need very specific types. And I don't think you can take it for granted that all of those types are available in the draft every year. Yeah, it's also, but even if you look at some of the smaller-bodied guys, I guess the difference is if you're trying to figure out the terminology you're trying to use, it's not just X receiver, but quote-unquote number one receiver, right?

Like, I can build my passing game around this guy. Because if you look at the 2022 draft specifically, which I think is more in line with supply at receiver draft-wise than last year's draft was, I mean, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olivae are not built like traditional number one receivers. But I think both of them clearly within an offense can be the number one pass catcher and something you build your passing game through, even though they don't look like T. Higgins. But is that another thing, too, where like the value of those receivers has changed because NFF, offense has changed because I think a lot of the receivers that have come in over the last six or years or whatever, first rounders, when we list our pluses and minuses, pros and cons, it's like, oh, he's amazing separation ability, sets up defenders, tax leverage, all that. Can he be pressed? I don't know, right? So many guys. But because of the way the NFL is now, that matters less than it did

six, seven, eight, nine, ten years ago. So maybe what we think of as a number one receiver is different, too, in a way that affects their value. I think that's a really good point. And if you look at the amount of teams that are really being smart in the ways that they're using motion and they're allowing those free releases to happen, you can build a receiving core out of a Tyree Kill and a J-1 Wadle in a way that would have seemed absolutely insane 10 years ago.

And I think that absolutely is changing. So is that going to change the calculus for what types of players' teams are willing to draft high and what types of guys can be productive early on, I would say yes. And the presence of another guy changes about, like, you know, Addison, what was he, 23 pickover or whatever? Yeah, it was 21, 22, 23 with those three guys. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I wasn't sure in the NFL if the weight and the lack of physicality would be an issue, but then I watched him on the field next to Justin Jefferson. I was like, ah, and T.J. Hawkinson, right? And I'm like, oh, okay, yeah, yeah. Like, it's so much easier to

put this receiver on the field and feed him. when you have these other two players on the field. And obviously the Vikings in the way they use stacks and bunches and it contributes to that and their formations. But again, like the value of these younger receivers when they come into the NFL is determined not just by the usage, but by the exact team that they're joining. I wonder if receiver is going to become one of those positions.

Like tackle was like this for a very long time and still kind of is. And edge rush are same. In defensive tackle, we've talked about this where the guys really getting paid. They're all drafted in the first round. I wonder if receiver is going to become one of those positions where guys get pushed up and up and up because teams are so inclined to try to find these immediate contributors. I mean, if you look at the way the 2022 draft unfolded, I don't think everyone just assumed that Drake London, Chris Olavie, and Garrett Wilson would be off the board by 11. But they all were. And it almost feels like last year where those guys went in the 20s, that becomes the outwire.

I mean, that year, I think it was the John Ross, Mike Williams. I can't remember who the third. Oh, Corey Davis. When those guys went in the top 10, that was insane. Like, that was unheard of. That was not something that we had gotten used to. Three guys are going to go in the top 10 this year, and we're not even going to blink.

And I think that's just because that position's getting pushed up so much more than it used to be. I guess that's an interesting question, too. Like, what's going to happen this year? You're right. How much of that is these dynamics versus they're truly great. players. Like, you know, like this class, like these top three in particular, I feel the way

I view them, any of them could be the number one right receiver in a different year. We just happen to be in this freak show year where they're all there. It's a great question. But I also think that that first round designation, the way that people talk about pass rushers, right? If you draft a pass rusher in the first round, even if that guy's a middling player, because of what guys are paid on the market, if he's making $7,8 million year AAV on his rookie contract, even if he's your number two pass rusher, there's value in that. You're getting excess value in that. And if receivers are going to be in just in line with pass rushers in the market, if Justin

Jefferson is going to make him $34 million, even if that guy falls a little bit short of where you want him to be as a first round receiver, the value is still probably going to be there. And it's the opposite conversation for linebacker safety, all of those non-premium positions that we talk about. So I think that becomes part of the calculus as well. So when do you feel, if you're a team, when do you not draft a receiver? Like how set do you have to be at the position to not keep taking shots on goal? I'm living this life right now because I'm sitting there watching my team with the ninth overall

pick and they already have Keenan Allen and DJ more on the roster. And if you're thinking about this logically, I think it probably makes sense for them to trade down or if they like a pass rusher at nine, do that because that's where the needs are. but I think about the way that modern football is, and I think about how paramount the success of your rookie quarterback is, and it's hard for me to argue against taking a doonese there at nine if he's available because who knows how long Keenan Allen's going to be there. So I might be the wrong person to ask because in my mind,

I'm just stacking up offensive assets as much as I can because that's the route to me that is going to lead to success on multiple different fronts. But at what point if the middle class of receiver is, so much cheaper. Like you and I are like, Gabe Davis, what, $13 million a year,

right? So let's say you can get a Tyler Boyd, a competent wide receiver, two, three, for 10 million, maybe single digit millions even. You know,

we're talking about rookie contracts, first 15 picks. We're comparable. You know, like in terms of A.A.V. So at what point, if you, if you,

yes, I see there's like that value. The value to me is if you see a ride receiver and you're like he could be at number one. And that's the case, certainly where the bears are picking. So it's probably not a good analogy because at nine, you could take one of the big, if one of the big three is there,

we're not just talking about a Tyler Boyd replacement. We're talking about you have a potential with two. You have the Bengals dream, right, where you have the 1A1B, right? But for some teams, like let's say if you're picking later in the 20s, is there still that same value savings if the middle class crashes out to some degree? And you are able to get a very, like,

solid veteran wide receiver on a totally reasonable contract to be your wide receiver too. That's a great question. I wonder how many of those truly solid guys are even going to get to free agency anymore, though. Yeah, I think that's the question, yeah. Because it just doesn't seem like that's happening. I mean, really, every year it feels like fewer and fewer guys are getting there. And part of me thinks our team's going to start treating receiver like the Eagles treat edge rushers in the draft where it's just like, I don't care. Like, we play an 11 personnel on 70% of snaps. I need three guys.

I'm going to use these premium premium picks on this position because we need them. You're getting excess value, even if they're mid-tier players, and there just aren't that many avenues to difference makers at that position anymore. So I don't know. It feels like we're trending that direction with where these guys are getting drafted. Do you like the Packers approach, which is take multiple shots on goal, but don't take them, take them outside of the first round? So I think we're going to find out more about that approach here very soon.

Because the Packers are this feel-good story and it's fun and their offense was very good last year. But are we going to get to a point this year where they reach a ceiling as an offense because they don't have that guy? That future and that path is not hard for me to imagine. I like it right now, but I wonder if we're going to realize the limits of that approach sooner rather than later. Yeah. And the other thing with the Packers is like all those players, improved as the year went on. Is that going to continue?

You know, you never, you can't always bank on that. Even Jordan Love, you know, like is his improvement going to be linear? I mean, there are, along with detections, maybe like the darling of the NFL right now, I get that and I love everything that they've done

and a lot of the decisions that they've made. But yeah, like, do you need a true dude? And maybe one of those guys can be that. I don't know. Maybe if Christian Watson is healthy for a whole year, Maybe, you know, I really like Jane Reid. Like, they're really good players.

But do you need one of the guys that you and I have been talking about, like, those top eight to ten guys? I think if you look at the teams that are winning Super Bowls right now, we're competing for Super Bowls, the answer has been yes. Like, that is almost non-negotiable outside of the team with the best quarterback in the world and the best quarterback I've ever seen. And I don't think we should be learning lessons about offensive team building from the Kansas City Chiefs right now.

So Travis Kelsey is an ex-receiver. So just, you know, they have a dude. He just doesn't play for a, he's just a titan, but he's a receiver. Yeah. The last hypothetical I wanted to try it out for you because I was thinking about this and how they allocated their resources this offseason. Looking at the Colts, okay, they, the word was, Stephen Holder reported this to RISPN, and obviously Diana had mentioned that they were

in the Legerius Need conversations early on, even though if that petered out before that trade eventually happens with the Titans. So you're Indianapolis. and Stephen Holder said that they wanted to potentially pursue a bigger ticket item in free agency, whether that was Daniel Hunter or a Sneed trade. When that stuff didn't materialize, they paid their own guys. They extended their own guys. So they gave Michael Pittman $23 million a year with $44 million guaranteed.

And by doing that, they decided to not pay Legerius Sneed $19 million a year. So if you're the Colts, just in a vacuum, rewarding Pittman for being a homegrown guy, none of that shit matters in this exercise. you can pay Legerius Sneed $19 million a year and pick Brian Thomas Jr. 15th. Or you can keep Michael Pittman for $23 million a year and you can pick whichever cornerback you want. Which one of those pads would you choose?

I lean Sneed because I think that, based on everything we've been talking about, the likelihood that your rookie wide receiver, is going to be great, is much better than the likelihood that the corner that they do. take is going to agree. However, I will say two things give me pause. Where they're picking, 15, right? 15. Yeah. I actually like it better for taking a corner in this draft because again,

I just do view that as like that right receiver tier, whereas I think that four corner tier that I talked about 15 right in the middle. They will have their pick probably of maybe even the first corner off the board, but definitely, I would say one of the ones too. So that matters. And then the other thing about the rookie quarterback is I don't, I like surrounding your rookie quarterback with talent. I don't like starting from scratch at receiver with the young quarterback, which is in this scenario, what you'd be doing.

I think, yeah, those factors are, I think, are worth taking into account. For me, it was more just like, let's remove the rookie quarterback thing from it. Just if you're starting over with the roster, which one would you rather have, I think that there's an argument for both ways. I think I'd probably say Sneed as well, just because a receiver, there's a better chance I'm hitting on a receiver there. But there's no way they're going to wade into the unknown at that position because they have Anthony Richardson.

But just purely as an exercise, I'm talking about value. I think it's an interesting set of circumstances to consider. It's why I was surprised that there wasn't a bigger market for Sneed. I guess injuries factored into that. But, yeah, like, and look, there's really, there's a lot. there's been a number of rookie corners who have come in and played well recently. So it's not like linebacker, tight end, safety.

Like, you know, I think the teams have done a pretty good job of drafting and developing corners over the last few years. But like, legurious need is to corners. He's like Jamar Chase. Like, he is like, like, like, he belongs in that equivalent conversation to me. And then given how few corners there were available, I don't understand why more teams weren't in the mix for him, other than the injury stuff.

I'm the same way. But also, it just, we can say this. But having Michael Pittman, you could argue that they still need another wide receiver. So I don't think having Michael Pittman precludes you from taking Brian Thomas Jr. at 15 if you think he's the guy. If they had sneed, I would say they still need another corner in the Naval is, though. Like, those two positions are. Looking at the way the teams have done this, I mean, I'm just staring at the wide receiver depth charts right now.

I mean, the sheer amount of teams who've spent a first round pick on a receiver, who spent two first round picks on receiver right now, it's pretty crazy. And then even teams that have a first round pick at receiver but need another one. Buffalo, right? Stefan Diggs, traded a first round pick for him. Still need another receiver. Dolphins, two first round picks or receiver. Not going to talk about the Patriots, not going to talk about the Jets.

The Ravens, two first round picks at receiver. The Bengals, two top 33 picks at receiver. The Browns have spent a shitload of resources at receiver. Even if you... They still traded for Jerry Judy. But the Jerry Judy one is interesting because that contract specifically. If we get to a point where Justin Jefferson is making $34 million a year or $33 million a year, Jerry Judy will then be making half of what the top of the market is making at the position.

And if you look at it through that lens, I actually think that contract is totally fine. So I think that type of deal is maybe going to be more appealing if you can trade for a guy and give him that level of extension. based on where the market is going. Yeah, that one made sense for the Browns, too, because of the state of their roster, which is to say the roster is fucking awesome. Like, they, like, just doing team needs, I was like, what do they need?

What do they need? What do, like, it's just, they're so stacked. So it's like, okay, well, we have the money and we're lower on this player. And to your point, it'll end up looking, you know, relatively cheap to the top of the market. Sure, why not? I think if another team had done that, Robert,

I would be very but yeah. Also, the Browns are operating in a way right now where the money doesn't really matter. Like the way that they're constructing their cap and the way that they're playing with that money right now,

they're able to absorb mistakes in a way that a lot of other teams would not be. And considering their quarterback is a yearly $64 million mistake, it's probably a good thing that they can operate that way. It is funny that you mentioned this

with the Browns roster, the fact that Andrew Barry was pushing to have the trade deadline in week 10 because he knows that he's probably going to be a buyer with the state of his team and how aggressive that they've been. So I'm not surprised that that was part of their agenda. But I do think that his interest in having that be the way the trade deadline works speaks to the strength of his roster compared to other teams.

Yeah, they don't have the draft first round draft pick, right, again this year. So that. Yeah, they're not picking until like pick 54 in this year's draft. So that's another reason why I think the Jerry Judy thing makes more sense for them than it does for anybody else. any other parting thoughts here about the way that this market has unfolded over the last few months or the way that you think it is going to unfold over the course of this calendar year because I think there's still several shoes to drop what the Niners are going to do, what the Jefferson Extension looks like.

In a way, this conversation is almost incomplete because of all the other things we're going to have to weigh over the next six months. And I should have thought of this at the beginning. You mentioning the Niners, it's because I don't think of Debo as a wide receiver that like it didn't really And then I look at this, I'm like, oh, they're paying $52 million. Oh, great, Debo, yeah, he's a wide receiver. Like, I think that that is the team to watch from a team-building standpoint, from how they value the position. Because Ayyuk is like a, I think he's a true number one.

I think he's like a truly really great talent. And I want to see what they do. And also, if they do even consider trading him, how other teams view him, Justin Jefferson, you can just whatever. Like, you know, to me, to me, he is not representative of any that he is an NFL offense in and of itself. He's a self-contained. He's like the son.

So you could pay him any amount of money, and I would be totally unmoved by it. Also, obviously, the fact that they've got going to do a rookie quarterback affects that. So that one, we can toss to the side. But the IUC future is, that is what I will be watching, Robert. Before we get out of here, any thoughts

about the receiver class? Do you like any of the guys at the top more than the consensus? Do you like any of the guys in the second tier more of the consensus? What are your thoughts, feelings, emotions about this group because they incite many of them for most people. I like so many of them.

I think I'm pretty chalky on the top three. I go Harrison, neighbors of Dunezay, but I would not be mad at them going in any order, honestly. I think they're all in such a milk-a-toast take. I think they're all awesome. I love a Dunezay so much. I mean, actually, I'm a Husky's fan,

so I'm obviously a little bit biased. Although I guess I'm not because I have my three, but I just don't see a world in which he's not a great animal. NFL player. I think he's so goddamn complete. He's so just so reliable. I think he's got really underrated athleticism as well. I think people in NFL will be surprised by his ability after the catch. I think that's going to, because the Husky's offense was so unique. It was so many 50, 50 balls down the

sideline. And so I think that'll be cool to see along those lines. Jaylon Bullock is another Husky who won't go in the first round. That's one. And we're talking about all these guys who are taken in the second and third rounds who end up being awesome. He was one who I would, I think he will end up being one of those guys in the NFL, just unbelievable hands, really, really smart route runner, really, really good understanding of how to attack defenses. So I'm a huge fan of his too. We mentioned him yesterday when we were talking about the Steelers, and I think that actually applies to this exercise. The Steelers move on from $18 million a year of Deiote Johnson. Can they get a guy like Jaylen

Polk in the second round and have comparable production? I think you can make an argument that there are going to be some guys in this class where that's true. The Adunze thing, after the Keenan Allen trade, I had emotionally come to terms with the idea that a receiver would not be there for them at nine. Because now the Chargers had a bigger need for one. Now they weren't as motivated to get one.

So a trade up for one of the top three guys probably wasn't going to happen. I was totally fine with, okay, if Adunze is gone, maybe they move back, maybe they draft a pass rush or whatever. I'm open to all of the avenues. After watching the watch,

Washington offense this weekend. I would give a kidney to put Romo Dunez-A on the Chicago Bears offense right now with Caleb Williams. I would do terrible, terrible things. Well, I mean, listen, J.J. McCarthy is coming in to save the day for you and knock one of those receivers down. Let me ask you this, though, would you, and this is actually a pretty good encapsulation of this discussion, would you rather have O'Donzee at 9 or a trueney at 9 or a tru,

raid down where you get an edge and an offensive tackle I won't even name which ones. I think Oduenzee at 9. I think again, I've committed to it in my heart where that's what I want.

And in my mind, the bears are like the best offense in the league in 2025. So I'm just, I'm dropping him in there and that's the path that we're following. Even in 24, though, adunzee, Alan,

and Moore would be where would you rank? Oh, there's a chance that's like a top five receiving core in the league immediately. Yeah, that's insane. That's an insane. Plus, Komet and Everett, that's an outrageous group of skills.

And an average offensive line at worst, I would say, is the way that that group is constructed right now. Like that, that is a, everyone's saying at this moment that where Caleb Williams is going to land is the best situation of rookie quarterback has been dropped into in a very long time. I think that's kind of true. I think the offensive line is being overrated,

just because of the way, because people don't think that it's a need in the first round, people think it's like a good group. I don't think that's fair. But if you drop the Dunezay into that, then I think the argument

for how strong it is compared to recent supporting cast is actually very real. So I support that, but I have to let go of it a little bit because he's probably not going to be there and I don't want him to be really, really disappointed on draft fight.

To our discussion, this is why I look at the Patriots and I'm like, y'all, what are you doing? because you're going to have a quarterback on a rookie contract. I mean, they have other needs in their roster and there's other ways that they've, I guess though, the fact that the inactivity there

reflects the lack of options that we've been talking about. But we're not, forget, we'd be talking about the Panthers trading for T. Higgins. That's a team that should be doing whatever it takes to get a guy like that in the building, I believe. I've gone the other way on it since I started thinking about this, and I'm continuing to go the other way on it. I would rather trade down out of that spot than draft the third quarterback.

Just based on where they are specifically and how far away they are, I think for them it would make more sense to trade down, even if you liked the third quarterback. In the meantime, I am there right now in America, Jim Harbaugh is the biggest J. G. G. McCarthy fan in the country, and he is making it knowing that he is. Over the next month, I'm going to give Jim Harbaugh a run for his money, just to ensure that some team trades up to four for JJ.

McCarthy and the receivers fall the way that I want them to. Mina Kimes, thank you so, so much. It's always fun to do this with you. I know you're extremely busy, so we appreciate the time. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for having me on. And this is a little bit of a home-and-home situation because Nate is coming on my show and we're doing, I don't know when it's going to come out soon.

I've been doing these mock drafts where I pick two and then my person picks the one out of the two. It's the same thing. My husband and I do when we go out to dinner where I'm like, oh, I've one of these two things and you pick one. And I had Greg McElroy on this week, which was excellent. I can't remember who he picked for the Bears after Caleb Williams. But maybe Brock Bowers.

Anyways, Nate's coming on to do that. So that should be a lot of fun. Please go check that out. And please continue to listen to the Meena Kim Show featuring Lenny and watch Mina and all of the wonderful work she does on NFL Live every single day. For now, really appreciate you guys listening. Just a heads up. We will be back on Tuesday with the next iteration of our weird gimmicky

mock draft format here on the athletic football show. We're going to be doing picks 18 through 11, 18 through 12 on Tuesday. So be on the lookout for that. And if you have not listened to our quarterback analysis pod with me, Nate and Dane, we went deep on the 2024 quarterback class, a lot of discussion on all of the relevant names. So please check that out. It is in your podcast feed right now.

For now, that is all we got. Sincerely appreciate guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.