The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The nine most interesting teams of the offseason, Volume 3: Bengals, Vikings and Patriots

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

The third and final entry in the annual TAFS Most Interesting Teams of the Offseason series is here, and it's a doozy. We've got Paul Dehner on the Bengals, Alec Lewis on the Vikings and Chad Graff on the Patriots. Will Tee Higgins and/or Trey Hendrickson still be Bengals in 2025? What's the Vikings plan with Sam Darnold and the quarterback position? How will the Patriots use their immense resources this offseason? Robert Mays gets into all that with the beat writers, and a whole lot more.Host: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenWith: Chad Graff, Paul Dehner, Alec LewisExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Chad on Bluesky: @chadgraff.bsky.socialFollow Paul on Bluesky: @pauldehnerjr.bsky.socialFollow Alec on Bluesky: @aleclewis.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Chad on X: @ChadGraffFollow Paul on X: @pauldehnerjrFollow Alec on X: @alec_lewisTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays, the third and final installment of our most interesting teams of the offseason discussion with our beat writers here at The Athletic. Man, I've had a good time doing these. And today was no exception. Teams kind of all over the place in terms of the hierarchy in the NFL on this episode, but no less interesting. I think you guys will see that when we dig into this discussion. I wanted to start this show with the chat we had with our Bengals writer at the Athletic, Paul Danaer Jr. The Bengals are at the center of this for a bunch of different reasons.

There was a fun moment that we talked about on the show where we had just finished with Chad Graf, our Patriots writer, and Paul was sitting down, and Chad asked Paul what was going to happen with T. Higgins. And so that's how you know where the T. Higgins thing sits in all of the dominoes that are going to fall this offseason. We chatted about T, the defensive spending, how the Bengals are planning on fixing that side of the ball,

where the barriers they have are to building in the way that other teams do. Paul does such a great job, not only covering that team, but the ability to communicate, why they are the way that they are. I love that discussion. Followed that up with a chat that we had with our Vikings writer here at the athletic Alec Lewis, another big domino to fall this offseason.

Sam Dernold, what is going to happen with his market? What does that mean for the Vikings? Where are they going to spend that excess money in free agency since they have a lot of holes to fill? And then we rounded out this discussion by talking to Chad Graf about a Patriots team that has about $600 million to spend in salary cap space. How are they going to do that if T. Higgins is a lot of, off the table. Where does that money get spent? Really enjoyed all of these conversations,

really enjoyed doing all of these the entire week. We actually have some fun chats with other beatwriters coming next week, talked with a series of guys who cover teams that we're talking, they're on the cusp, right? There are teams that got close last year but couldn't necessarily get it over the finish line. How are they going to do that? We're going to fold those conversations in to the shows that we're doing next week. So please be on the lookout for those. But for now, let's get to our third and final installment of our most interesting teams of the offseason discussion. Joining us now, it is our bangles writer here at the athletic, Paul Dana Jr. Paul, you do, man.

Doing great. I'm excited. I'm ready for this. I'm very excited. We've talked about this. It was December. We last chatted, and you're like, okay, we do this series, right? With the most intriguing off seasons, you're going to be near the top of the list. And I'm like, I'm ready for this moment. You know, I've been building towards it. We have to be doing this because the way that you know is that when all the beat writers are asking you what's going to happen with a specific player, you know that the team that you cover holds one of the dominoes of the offseason. Chad Graff was walking away asking you what was going to happen with T. Higgins. So you were an important character in the athletics NFL coverage.

The funny part about that is, though, is that that could have been about three different people. Yes. By the way. So there's like, it's just, it's all sort of coming together. It's the perfect storm of intrigue. So let's start there. Yeah. What happens with T. Higgins over the next couple weeks? This gets done. I just, they want to get it done.

They're going to tag him if they can't get it done by the deadline on Tuesday. But that deadline might spur the deal. They might just tag him there if it doesn't happen and then get it done in the week after. It might just need that extra push to get it there before free agency. Joe Burroughs made his feelings clear. Duke Tobin has made his feelings clear. Everybody, it's really interesting because the Burroughs, effect in this that pushed Higgins back into the conversation really drew what has been one of the

most fascinating lines in the sand we've seen, certainly that I've seen covering this team in my 16th season now, where it's just so deep and both sides are clear. We all want this to get done. Everybody wants this done. T's side wants it done. The Bengals want it done. Burrow wants it done. The same question still remains after all of that. Will it? Can they get it done? It all sits on ownership's desk now. It's like all fingers have pointed up to the top saying it's on you guys now. If they tag him and they don't get something done, do you think that he will play on the tag this year? They'll be comfortable paying him 26 million straight against the cap? That is the can of worms that no one wants open because don't forget now. He changed his agent to Jamar Chase's agent

mid-season because it was clear the Bengals were not going to get a deal done with David Mogadah. It was not going to happen. It happened to Jesse Bates. Higgins, all of it was just not happening. So T wanted to stay. So he knew that if that was going to be real, it would have to probably be in conjunction with the deal that Chase is going to get, and they're probably going to have to work together.

So he changes to Rocky Arsenal, and now they both are kind of negotiating package deal together. You mess with T. Now you're messing with Jammar, right? And so now it all comes into this storm of trouble. This is the guy who held in last year. We called it Hat Watch. It's where's in the hat.

It was during practice. It was a bucket hat. It was every day. Every day. There he is. There's the hat. Okay. And so you don't, nobody wants that again.

No. And so you are dealing with a very fragile, combustible thing here with these guys. But everyone is in admittance. And it was very aggressive from Duke Tobin's side yesterday. This is what I want. If anywhere that I am in control of a team, I want T. Higgins on it. and I want this done. He said we feel like we have our arms around this deal

and know what it should look like. It's a matter of if they view it differently. So it comes back to the table again with this to find out if they can actually do it. But everybody wants to. If it doesn't, if you go to the now forcing him to play on the tag thing, how combustible does it get there? Because you're going to have a lot of unhappy campers at that point.

Okay. So let's play this out. Because I think that some of the refrain, about paying T. Higgins is that, well, if you pay T. Higgins, you can't do X, Y, Y, Z, mostly on defense. So let's push the domino over. If they pay T. Higgins, market rate for a number two wide receiver in the J-1 Waddle, Devante Smith territory where he's making $27, $28 million a year. What now has to happen because they did that? Not, you know, surprisingly little. This is the thing, like, that gets misunderstood, I think,

from people that don't quite understand, well, because the Bengals cap situation. is interesting in that they have more space than anybody realized is because they're going to, they have so much dead weight on these contracts. Sheldon Rankins is gone. They are, that was 9.6. Sam Hubbard is probably going to get restructured or let go. Alex Cap is probably going to get let go. Gino Stone might get let go.

These are all guys making 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 on the cap. They're going to be up in the 90 to 100 million range if they want to be in terms of space. So, Cap is not an issue. But here's my response to that. I'm with you, and that was kind of my stance on the whole time. I was just like, why can't they do this? Right. But let's say they let those guys go.

You need to replace all of them. Correct. And that's the issue, is that if you like Alex Capago, now you need two starting guards. If you let Sam Carbord go, now you still need another edge rusher unless you feel good about Miles Murphy suddenly. They do. If you let Gino Stone.

I'm just, I'm just, I'm just, there's a whole, other side. What's your time on this? What do we got? That's great. But this is the problem is that they have so many holes that they need to fill. They essentially need to rebuild the entire defense. So if you feel like they can do that at an adequate level while paying T. Higgins, that was always my preferred route here. Yes. That is what it is. And they can do that. I think they feel like, okay, with the defense side, what happened here was Luana Rumo was a great defensive coordinator. with a team of veterans. We talked about it, the microwave defense.

All these veterans, guys really smart, intelligent guys that have been around for four, five, six, seven years, a team of veterans. They built this team that played at this 400 level. It was complicated. It was all this exotic stuff, whatever, that he would do. And it befuddled teams, and it worked well. They knew when Sparrow was coming, they had to flip it young. They gave nine top 100 picks to Luana Ramos' defense, and none of them did anything. They regressed.

And when that happened, he was not able to develop these guys. Now, right, wrong, he probably would sit here and tell you those guys stink, right? And the Bengals personnel would say, they don't stink, you didn't play them, you didn't develop them. You have them all rotating and you're hurting their confidence by bringing back Von Bell instead of just letting Jordan Battle be the starter, X, Y, Z, all of these things are part of it. Enter Al Golden, okay? His calling card is developing young players. he comes from the college ranks.

He was unbelievable as their linebackers coach in developing Logan Wilson and Marcus Bailey and Pratt and these guys, and Akeem Davis Gaither, those were his draft developed guys and they really hit on that room when they went young. Obviously Notre Dame did the same thing. They are banking hard on Al Golden coming in and taking all of these young players, these nine top 100 guys, plus they'll probably get three more, you know,

in this coming draft. and turning this thing into a young, ramsifying, eaglesifying this defense to have a feel of a young, exciting, energetic, fast defense that plays fast. You saw a little bit of it in those last five games. They simplified, they played the young guys because they had to do it, because they were in such a bad hole. And it was okay. And that's all anyone was asking for. Can it just not be league worse, and you're in the playoffs and making noise? And so they have a lot on Al Gold and actually developing those young guys as being the biggest key to all of this math work.

So where do you think if they are going to have some stopgap immediate solutions and they try to re-microwave this thing on defense? What positions would you be looking at specifically that you think they will try to fill through free agency? Well, linebacker will take Jermaine Pratt, he's another one of these cap cuts that's going to go. He's 5.6 that they'll save on the cap and same cash. So they'll want a veteran linebacker to play next to Logan Wilson. That'll be an Al Golden, you know, pick specifically. And there's a lot of guys available.

A lot of guys available. They love, you're just going to kind of see a wild. you're just going to kind of see a one for one there. They might pay that guy exactly $5.6 million, you know, one for one there. Everything else is lying. The line is just it needs all of it. It needs bodies. It needs competition.

It needs draft picks. It needs a couple veterans. They just, they need to figure that thing out and get actual, this playmakers in there. You know, there's partially that they weren't in enough situations to rush the passer last year because their run defense was so bad.

So they need run. But, and that hurts. You look at their pass rush numbers and it's like, well, it's Hendrickson and nothing. Well, yeah, they need more of that too. They also need to put themselves in more situations to actually do that by getting run stoppers. You know, you look at somebody, you know, like Grant from Michigan, right? It's like, where's the next DJ reader coming from?

Because they missed him so badly to plug in the AFC North in the middle. So they need that, whether it's free agency or whether it's draft or whatever, to focus on that line and getting that better. That's where so much attention of new bodies is going to go. In the secondary, do you feel like they're comfortable rolling with some of the young guys and seeing what happens? That's what it's going to be. Dax Hill coming off of injury. He was playing okay before he got hurt.

So if him and Camp Taylor-Breddy are outside corners, you still have DJ Turner in the mix, you feel like they're comfortable enough with those guys where the spending is going to come in the front seven first and foremost. They feel like what they'll tell you is that's going to save them is all of these, all of the investments in the secondary with these young guys, all premium picks that have, kind of stopped and started are going to take off. There's been a lot of this. Yeah. But the flashes are there, right?

So it's like when you're scouting these guys that are coming out in this draft, if you were treating all these guys like they were playing at Michigan, well, half of them did, then you would say, ah, you see the flashes. Like, you know, scout to the flashes, right? You see it there. You've seen those high moments. It's just been up and down. And was that because of coaching or usage or whatever?

They're going to banking on that. that DJ Turner, and Dax Hill really was playing, like he looked like they finally found his spot in year three, which was kind of a shame. It took that long, but he looks like really ready to take off and be a guy there. And Cam certainly has shown big time flashes. So they're banking on that and battle they love. I don't know what they're going to do with the other safety spot, whether they're going to keep that Stone is kind of could go either way. They'll draft a safety to probably try to play over him. But, you know, they got to figure that out. But outside of that, it's going to be youth. It's going to be young guys. Even Josh Newton,

who came on and had some moments last year. I think they're thinking could be a part of that picture. Do we think Trey Hendrickson is on this team next year? My favorite question, this whole offseason. Everyone is spending all this time talking about what Burroughs saying and about Higgins and Chase. And I'm like, the most fascinating decision is Hendrickson. Because if you're going young on this defense and if you are worried about some of the money part, like, you know, whether it's the cash situation with them or whatever, when you're talking about all the cash up front it takes to get Higgins and Chase done with what you still have Burrow on the books for what all that stuff.

If that's what it is, Hendrickson is the best value in football. I mean, he only owed $16 million right now. But if he's going to say, what he did say when he was on McAfee and everywhere he went was, look, I want to help the Bengals win a Super Bowl, whether I'm here or you trade me for pieces, if you're going young, if you're doing that, this guy was second in voting for the defensive player of the year. He led the whole universe in Sacks last year, and he has 35 the last two years. He is in his age 31 season. We all know the metrics.

We all have seen the graph, right? We know what happens. Are you going to bet on that his age 31 and 32, and what are you paying for? 33 season are going to give you anything resembling what you just saw? Or are you going to trade him for the 39th overall pick or whatever, you know, something, a two? and use that in this incredibly deep defensive line draft to throw more young bodies at that and just say, hey, we're just going to try to eat that way and go all the way young. It is a fascinating, if it were me, if I'm GM, that's my move.

I think that's the move. I'm not into investing more money or getting into another fight. I'm not into, if I'm this team, enough with the camp distractions, in the contracts, and the trade request, and the bickering. over this stuff. Let them play. Like, figure it out. Tomlin, right? He's like, look, I don't want hostages. I want volunteers, right? The Bengals are like, we actually are okay with hostages. Like, we'll just go ahead. Our hostages keep playing pretty well. It's weird. You know, like Hendrickson was one, and he played great. Higgins was one requested to trade, and he had

his career year and did everything the right way. Jesse Bates, when he went through all his stuff, had a great year on one of the best defenses they've had. This has been weird. They're like, man, this hostage thing's working out. Well, they're contractors. If they're hostages, they're playing in contract years. Exactly, and they've kind of leaned into it. And so, all right, but I'm kind of, I just don't want that. I want to be done with it. And I want to go, let's just go all young. Let's flip that over. Get me a pick or two, and maybe a player or something, whatever you can get for Trey Hendrickson when his values high and move on. And this is not a knock on Trey Hendrickson in any way.

It's just a matter of philosophically as a team, where are you at? Where are you at with this defense? It's like if that's what you're trying to be, and if it does come down to money, and I thought Duke Tobin spoke on this with us locals on a side session yesterday, and I asked him specifically about trading T. Hedrickson. His answer was not go find your own edge rusher, which he famously said about T. Higgins two years ago, go find your own receiver, I'm not trading. That was not the answer.

The answer was, I don't get into those things because they tend to take on a life of their own, but you should know my feelings on it that we're trying to extend Trey Hendrickson. That's what they want to do. And if you're judging how they feel about him in his age, It's like you can judge our conclusion on that by we're trying to extend Trey Hendrickson. That's what we want to do first. But it wasn't no. It was we'll get to Trey once we deal with all this mess of needing to get Jamar and T-Dun

and get this free agency focus taken care of on the defense. And then we'll figure out what's left for Trey and what we maybe need to do there. It felt like that's going to be the last one that can go either way. So we'll see which way they fall on that. But I think all options are certainly on the table, whether it's kind of forcing him to play on it, trading him, or getting the extension done with something that makes sense for both sides. If you look at it, I mean, I know this is a dangerous way to think about things because it's the mystery box way of thinking about team building, but Trey Hendrickson's making $16 million against the cap this year. If you get the 39th pick and you have $16 million in cash and cap to spend, that's potentially three players.

Yes. And you might need three players given the state of the roster. So I want to use the Trey Hendrickson thing as a jumping off point to a larger conversation. If we're talking about Trey Hendrickson extension, and we can even talk about the, Jamar Chase extension in this way. What are the normal, quote unquote, normal things in terms of cash flow structure that a contract like Jamar Chase's would include that the Bengals are not willing to do? Like, where are the pain points here with the way that the Bengals operate contract-wise and the way that some of these top of the market players expect these contracts to be structured? Well, this is for a national audience. Obviously, Bengals fans know this stuff. No, no, no. What I'm going to

say is it's the most important one. It's guaranteed money. It's guaranteed money. It's, It's the not wanting to guarantee money to keep flexibility of structure. They, you know, what they're doing right now with all the veterans we talked about earlier, they're getting out of those with no pain points at all and saving on. It's the flexibility. They bake into all these contracts with low guarantees. They up front to cash all these things. And so, you know, when it comes down to, and this was the pain point with Jesse Bates

and they couldn't get a deal done with him and all of the things with T. And it's there just don't want to go there on the guarantees. They get itchy about it. And this second year guarantee money is a big part of this problem that has also existed. They've never been willing to go and really break that. And so that becomes where you end up. It's like, look, you can give me all the fake cash that you want, but you're not guaranteeing anything.

And so that is, it makes everybody nervous and itching and feeling like you're always in this contract year and they just want security. That's the pain point that it comes from a player's perspective. And the Bengals are just so strict on that structure. They are very, very proud. mentioned it yesterday of how they always have the lowest dead money in the league because all the value the money needs to go to the players that are in Cincinnati and we and and that is obviously not the way muster the rest of the league operates or cares about anymore but that is their

philosophy and that's where you end up in that point with the guarantees and things like that so this very smoothly brings me to my next point the NFL as a whole does not give a shit about that money anymore yes it doesn't matter to them if you look at the way a team like the eagles operates, and there are plenty of examples of this, right? The Bengals are doing things a very different way. They're approaching how they're going to, the ways that they're willing to leverage themselves, how creative they're willing to get is just not the same as it is with other teams. They had a run of success, so it stopped mattering for a second.

Now I think it matters again. So I want to have an honest discussion about whether or not this team is equipped to compete in the modern NFL against teams like the Eagles, even when they have a top four quarterback. If they're not willing to do these things, What reasonable expectations can we have about the Bengals' ability to succeed in this sort of environment? They are not good at winning on the margins, okay? They have had runs of success win when they have had good quarterbacks on rookie contracts

because they've had that baked in advantage, okay? I love that 2015 Bengals team. 2015 Bengals, yeah, right. The one year Andy Dalton was good with the greatest offensive roster ever around him, you know. And then Carson Palmer was the same way. and win the 05 team that was really good in Cincinnati, where he had his ACL torn in the playoffs. But, I mean, where he was on his rookie deal.

But once those flipped over and once it became more about winning in other ways in the margin, then the big advantage, it changed things. Burroughs been the same way now where you have these two years now back to back, where once the money started to become a part of it, and you lost that advantage, it has changed things. The offset that they have is that they have always been pretty much solely relying on drafting well. And you know that that's a coin flip proposition. for every single GM running through this place.

You're going to get cold eventually. Yeah, and Duke Tobin, to his credit, has had plenty of runs, heaters, man, and he's in a rut right now the last couple of years, but not almost all on defense. And so they're hoping, again, it brings back to the golden thing that that can fix it, but that's what it comes down to.

Because they're not winning on the margins, it becomes solely reliant on drafting and developing better around a quarterback if you're having to pay him. they've done it. I don't think it's something you can't do, but it's not as reliable as just pulling those levers that are available to you and getting a few extra players rather than being like, well, injuries really got us last year

because we didn't have depth. Well, you could have gotten a couple extra players to give you some built-in insurance policies but didn't really pull those levers to make them happen. The last thing that I think is a big part of this, and there's such a unique case and a worthwhile case to talk about here is the private equity involvement in the way that the NFL is going. There are these teams.

that are cash-rich teams that spend a lot of cash that are inviting private equity into what they're doing to have even more liquidity. The Bengals have been the team that is most opposed to this, even though in theory, they would probably benefit the most from an injection of capital. So why do they have this stance as the rest of the NFL is becoming more open to the idea of other investors and the benefits that can provide you? I just don't think they want anybody else in their business. I think that's what it is. They don't want anybody else to see where the bodies are buried. This is our family business. I mean, they bought out, you know, they bought out full control of the team, you know, after Paul Brown died back in the 90s.

This is our team. It's us. It's our family thing. We don't want anybody else in our business. This is who we are. And I think that's kind of the stance. Now, in fairness, I haven't dug deeper on that recently since it's kind of, since we've seen more of the evolution of this. But that has kind of, you know, in my, it seemed like that's kind of been the stance of them since day one.

and I'm not surprised by it. I think that's kind of who they are organizationally. Yeah, I think that makes sense. And at a certain point, you know, you have guys like Joe Burrow pushing them in new directions, but you can only do so much. Like if you're one player, you only have so much leverage.

And I think he's exerting it as much as he possibly can, but there are going to be limitations of this. And as they bump up against the limitations, part of my frustration here is that, like, I love the bones of this team. I love watching Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase play. And if I'm sitting there in Joe Burroughs chair, I can just, or I'm a Bengals,

fan watching this and you just see the way that these other teams are operating, the source of my frustration would be it's right there. It's right there. So many teams want what we already have, and the fact that we're not willing to go to the places that some of these other organizations are, that's what's frustrating. If you were just this dumpster fire and you had absolutely no shot, that's one thing. That's not what's going on here. And I think that's where the source of much of my frustration comes from. Yeah, I would agree. I do think, you know, they're a little more willing to do more than people probably give them credit for in terms of... It's gotten better.

It's gotten better. But again, it's from where it was coming from. I do think it has gotten better. I do think they are willing to do stuff. But this is, we are at the ultimate inflection point here to this. I think this is, this is quarterback versus ownership. It is flexing the muscle that he got the moment he signed that contract on both sides. Both sides signing on that was significant because that was this ownership group,

that doesn't want to give away anything gave power to Joe Burrow. And he is now using it in a way that they are probably uncomfortable with. And so that becomes a thing where you're like, okay, here it is. Line in the sand. And his name is T. Higgins. And his name is Jemar Chase. And they have the same agent. And everybody here is pointing to ownership saying, get this done.

We all want this. Will they? And there it is. It just sits there on the table for us all to sit back and see if they'll be able to get it done. because if they don't, and we all know where Joe Burrow stood, now we're discussing the Carson Palmer timeline, right? That's what's at stake here, okay, is what comes next? Is he mad?

Is he frustrated? Is he looking for outs? Does he start becoming more vocal? Is he... You don't want to go there. Jordan Roderick tried to send him to the Rams two days ago on the show. The league is watching, obviously. I mean, he's, you know, as valuable as a commodity as has existed.

in a long time. And so you're talking about something like this being on the line here, get it done. Like you just got to find a way to get it, do whatever you've got to do, but will they? And we all wait and see. And I don't, I think there's a misconception that Burrow is some unhappy person or looking for this. He is not. He loves Cincinnati. And I mean that. Like, you can tell. He does. And he loves playing with Jamar, and he loves playing for Zach Taylor, and he loves everything with, and pitch and everybody that they have. He, he would, love to be the guy who brought this title to a place that's never had it in Ohio, all these things, the small market plays to him, even though he's kind of becoming this bigger personality.

He does. He wants it to happen here, but he understands the reasons that it hasn't for so long. And he's like, if I can change that and make this happen for me, it's perfect for all of us. And he's trying to make it happen. But it's not from a place of unhappiness. I think it's from a place of like wanting this so bad to happen here. That's how I feel. That's again, that that's the source of the frustration is that you see the fact that the gap can get closed.

It's a matter of whether or not they end up doing it. I think me positing to you that you should be involved in this conversation about the most interesting teams was justified. Yeah. I think we got there. Yeah, it was pretty good. Sincerely appreciate the time, sir. We will do this again very soon. Pleasure.

All right, guys, before we get to Alec Lewis, we are going to take a quick break. Our most interesting teams of the off-season series rolling here. Another writer who covers a team with a pretty big domino to fall that may shape the way that the rest of the offseason goes is our Vikings writer here at the athletic Alec Lewis. Alex sincerely appreciate you joining us. Great to be here, Robert. I thought after last year with Kirk,

me being in the most interesting, you'd watch JJ and we'd kind of fade in the background as the Vikings can kind of tend to do, but no, the Sam Donald conversation keeps us alive. You and I have been having this. We're probably talking for like 22-ish minutes here. We've had this discussion. it in like five minute increments over the course of the last four days. So now we're just

going to kind of put it together and put it on a camera and a microphone. What do we think, how do we think the Sam Darnold situation unfolds over the next 20 days? Yeah, well, I think the Vikings have a ton of needs and they know that paying a quarterback a lot of money eliminates answering a lot of those needs, especially when you only have four draft picks, which is where they're at because they've traded a lot of draft picks away over time. So it's really hard for me to see a path where they either franchise tag Donald and keep him on that number or where they extend him at a pretty high price tag because they have to fix the interior of the offensive line. The interior of the defensive line is a focus. Running back is a question. Cornerback is a question

potentially safety depending on what happens with Harrison Smith and Cam Bynham. So with that amount of needs the lack of draft hits over the last few years, then the lack of draft picks this year, it just leaves them with very little wiggle room in terms of what they pay the quarterback because they're going to need the cap space everywhere else. The entire point of letting Kurt Cousins go and maneuvering for J.J. McCarthy was to avoid this exact situation. And that was when people were talking about the Donald stuff during the season. I entertained the idea because I thought it was a fun conversation and he was playing so well that at a certain point it's like,

well, if they go to like the NFC championship game or the Super Bowl, like, what are you going to do? I do think the way it ended made things a little bit easier. But as like a theoretical exercise, I was always in the boat that you stay the course. You keep doing what you originally were planning on doing. You bet on your infrastructure to make the next version of what Sam Donald was in 2024. No question. And I think that's where they all were. But just like you externally and me watching it, I do think the people inside the building as week 12 passed and week 13

14 and Sam Donald's putting up there was a stretch of there was a stretch of games where I think like his touchdown to interception was like 18 to 1 and you're just watching him chunk the ball downfield layer anticipatory throws to the sideline explosive plays after explosive plays it's hard it was hard even for people inside the building to start not to think like what could this look like for the future but there's no question when they made the decision they made last year with Kurt Cousins and moving on from him and drafting J.J. McCarthy and prioritizing that draftable class of quarterbacks, it was because they believe very strongly that to win in the NFL, it's really either you have the superhero or you have the rookie quarterback contract

where you can build everywhere else. And I still think they are in that aspect. But had the last two games not been what they were, who knows what the conversation would be? It's crazy how narrative shifting and league altering like just those that sample size can be. What is preventing them from tagging him and trading him and not just letting him walk for? I'm going to say nothing because I think fans would probably say, well, we can get a compensatory pick for him. The whole point of letting him walk is you have $60 million in cap space. There's a very good chance you're canceling out whatever that's going to be with how you spend in free agency. So the only way to get guaranteed the draft capital for him is to tag him and trade him. What is preventing them from doing?

that. I think it would probably be another team's unwillingness to trade for a man. Calling their bluff. Right. And being like, we know he wants to come to us. He's going to hit free agency regardless. So why would we part with a fourth round pick or what have you? I've also had conversations with people internally where they're like, Alec, like how often are our premium players being traded for premium draft capital in this day and age of the NFL? I mean, you would be able to go through the history of that. I mean, I'm thinking like, Brad, Charlie Chubb, maybe Jalen Ramsey, Tyree Kill. I mean, it's interesting to think about how much of return these players are generating via

Drapics because I don't think it happens that often in these times in the NFL. I think that's right. I did a show with Barnwell probably about a month ago and we were talking about this. And I can't remember how we were couching the point. But he was talking about how too often when we look at trades and extensions, we're not pooling those resources together to think about the all-in price tag. And I think that has changed, right? So if you think back to the two first round pick trades that had happened four, five, six years ago,

you had the Cleo Mac trade, you had the Jamal Adams trade, you had the Jaywin-Ramsey trade. Those trades don't really happen anymore. So the AJ Brown trade was one solo first-round pick. The Devonze Adams and Tyree Kill trades were first-round pick and change. So that was getting less and less because when you're factoring the contract extension, you're not willing to give up as much draft capital. I wonder if for some team that calculus changes when. it's the quarterback. But that brings us to a larger conversation about what the market is for

Sam Darnold, period. And you said before we started recording that, as you've kind of taken people's temperature on this over the last couple of days, you don't think there's going to be this like red hot Sam Darnold market that we'd maybe anticipated at some points during the regular season. Well, I'm just curious if there will be. And part of the reason I brought that up is I've had multiple conversations here in Indy, and you know how this goes. It's at night. It's scout. it. You don't know if these people ultimately are making the decision, but they have asked me, like, Alec, would you pay them? And I don't just jump and say, like, 100%, I pay them 40 million. It's kind of like, yeah, yeah, what's the price tag? And then I asked that question back to them.

And it's similar, like, I don't know if my job's on the line, if I do it. I also think the tangential aspect, and this relates to all of the podcast you've probably done with our beat riders the last couple days is how do the chairs, like what are the musical chairs before this happens? What happens with Matthew Stafford? What does that look like? Does he land in New York? Then does that make the Raiders priority Sam Dard? Like I think it's all kind of interconnected, as you know, probably as well as anybody.

And so I really think a lot of what the market ultimately could be is predicated probably on what happens over the next couple weeks within conversations like Stafford's representation. representatives speaking to other teams and that sort of thing. I all think it's very tied together. I wonder what the market is going to be when you compare it to other quarterback contracts that we've seen recently. I don't know the answer to this. So if you look at what I was just doing, the math I was just doing,

essentially it's hard to do this by AAB because the cap changes every year. So if you look at the biggest quarterback contracts that have been handed out in the last couple off seasons as a percentage of the cap, it lands around 17%. That's what Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins both were. 17% of the 2025 salary cap is $47 million a year. I wonder if Sam Donald would get something like that. You can make an argument that he hasn't been as consistent as a guy like Kirk Cousins has been where you have multi years of high-level production,

or at least above average production. Derrick-car is kind of the same thing. I think that we've kind of retroactively forgotten how well Derek Carr played in stretches for John Gruden with the Raiders. He had some decent years, more decent years than Sam Darnold's had. At the same time, Sam Darnold is how old? 27, 28. So this is a very different runway than it would be with somebody like Kirk Cousins coming off of an Achilles

or Derek Carr in his mid-30s. So I think that there are external factors kind of pulling in different directions when we're trying to figure out what the market for Darnold should look like. And I don't know where that ultimately settles. It's interesting. A scout said to me last night, he's like, what happens is, there probably is going to be one of these teams where they watch the tape and they're like, you know, we think there's even more in there. We think that sustainable, consistent span of games in the back after the season, we think we can harness that.

And all it really takes, just like with Kirk last year in Atlanta, like all it took was one team to be willing to go to a certain place. And I do think, and you know this as well as anybody, and you guys have talked about it. But with this quarterback class in the draft being what it is, and then the rest of the free agents being what they are, beyond the potential Matt Stafford availability. Like I do think if you watch the table all these guys and you think about the age of Sam and the span of production, there probably is going to be one team that really buys in and is willing to go to a certain number.

But just similar to you, I'm curious to see where that is. Is it around that Baker 33.3 AAV? Like Gino Smith's probably 25 million AAV. Like where does it fall? Is it more than Baker? I think all of those stuff, all of those numbers and all that conversation is what the Vikings are seeking, what other teams are kind of diving into this week. And I think that there's probably a team that's going to be willing to go to the Baker Mayfield place. I think that's the most analogous case to this one, where you have a quarterback who highly drafted, same draft class, refurbished his image after being cast aside by his former team.

The Baker contract settled about 13% of the cap. That being said, Baker did not negotiate with other teams. So if you get a second bidder in there, now do we start to push up the market a little bit. My hunch on this is that we can talk and quibble about the number and where it ends up settling. It will settle at a place that the Vikings are not willing to go to. And if that is the case, then we start talking about alternatives. Daniel Jones is in this building. It seems like because J. Jim McCarthy was hurt and they haven't seen him, do they want to protect themselves a little bit?

So if Darnold does get priced out of Minnesota, which I do see happening somewhere along the way, what does the quarterback plan then look like for the Vikings? Yeah, the likeliest scenario would be J.J. McCarthy, who all reports in Indy thus far are very positive. I mean, obviously, he's well months removed from the Torminiscis and the surgery. I know he's back on the field. Had a conversation yesterday where from a weight perspective, there's been a conversation in Minnesota about that, but he's back over 200 pounds. He was in all of the meetings, I mean, not all, but a lot of the game playing meetings.

He was on the sideline in the headset. I think he's well-voiced in the system. So I think he would definitely have an opportunity to start even from the jump. But I do think the priority would be to pair a player alongside him, preferably probably a Daniel Jones who has experience as a starter, who has experience within the system. That's why they signed him late in the season. It was to get to know him and allow him to get to know the system.

And so I think that's probably the realm in which I would look at it. their 1A plan would probably be J.J. McCarthy, Daniel Jones, preferably JJ's healthy and ready to start, but if he's not, we have a guy who is experienced and who threw for 300 yards against the Vikings and Ed Donatelle a couple years ago in the playoffs. I love this when you have single performances that inform a team's decision-making two or three years down the road.

It's like, well, he kicked his shit out of us. Like, we got to do something here. Someone asked Daniel Jones, like his first, like, news interview thing in Minnesota like do you're like what do you remember about that game and like you know Daniel Jones isn't the most electrifying personality but you could see the smile like

forming his face about that afternoon that Ed Donatel would like to forget so they do not use that money on Sam Darnold there is 60-ish million dollars or so in CapSpace that the Vikings have to spend or should spend you mentioned there are a lot of holes on this roster and part of the reason this is a good thing to bring up

part of the other reason that they can't do this Darnold is the overall calculus with how they're going to build this roster after trading away all those draft picks. One of the reasons you can justify trading them away is, well, we have all of this cap space. So it becomes important. Like you need one to offset the other. So you're looking at multiple corners, right? Like multiple corners. Yeah. A guard or two. No question. Interior defensive line and safety. So as you're trying to piece together what is your like mock fantasy Vikings off season in free agency, what does that look like for you? Yeah. I I think it probably starts with trying to come up with a number for Byron Murphy Jr.

Who had a great year. I think he had six interceptions. The ball production was very good. He is so versatile in that, yes, he can play in the slot as a cornerback. He can play on the outside. He can play the deep half, which you know, they do a lot of non-traditional Tampa stuff. That's a very diplomatic way of putting it. They do a lot of wacky things defensively.

And so I think bringing Byron Murphy back, that's not going to come at a cheap cost because of his age and because of his production. So it probably starts there. And then I think also in free agency, you're probably looking at a guard. I don't know, depending on probably where Trace Smith's market goes. Like, I don't know if the Vikings can really be in that market, but it's probably a worthwhile thing to think about. And then you've probably heard from Dame Bruegler about this draft class on the

interior defensive line. And I think at number 24, that's probably the most sensible place. to fill that void. So I think from a free agency cap perspective, it's get Byron Murphy signed, at a guard in some capacity, and then fill some holes around there. I mean, the interesting one that doesn't get talked about as much is running back. Aaron Jones, they extended his void date. So I think they would like to bring back Aaron Jones at a number that makes sense.

But even if they do that, like, I would not be surprised if they either draft a running back late in the draft or, I mean, who knows with what could happen at the first round with who's available. but that's another position that I know, listening to how much Kevin O'Connell has talked about wanting to run the football better, it's going to take a commitment both in terms of personnel, in terms of scheme, and in terms of him calling the plays on Sunday to run the football better. It's going to take all of that if they want to go where they want to go. Yeah, that makes total sense to me, and I think that if you look at the way that this team is built, Quizzi is very attuned to where players at certain positions come from. right? Like how do I need to find these players? There's a reason that when they were trying to build around this rookie quarterback contract, they understood that that was important because they were paying tackles, they're paying a wide receiver, they're playing all these premium positions. interior defensive line is a spot that you typically, to find the difference makers,

need to draft them in the first round. So when they were looking at their holes coming in, even on a long-term view, last summer, understanding where their holes were probably going to be in 2025, them hanging on to that first-round pick was important because of interior defensive line play. So I would expect that they go that direction. And the funny things, we mentioned Flores and we joked about it, like me being diplomatic about the way he plays, But they literally, the last two years, I think their four-man rush rate is like around 40%.

It's the lowest in the NFL. And while, yes, Brian Flores has a bounty of blitz packages, and he loves being aggressive. No question, you have to play that way if you can't generate rush with four. And they can't because their interior defensive linemen have not been past rush. They haven't been. They're castoffs. Every single one of them is. Right.

I mean, it's guys who. Harrison Phillips is a nice player. That's not what he is. No question. And so I definitely think, I mean, with this draft, being where there are a lot of those types of players up and down the draft, but specifically in the first round, that's a spot. But I think that's the thing, like, we talked about the Vikings, and you said it's like there are a lot of holes. And that when you start to think about this roster, I mean, even if you bring back Byron Murphy Jr., the other cornerback spots, I mean, it was Stefan Gilmore, Shack Griffin. I saw Stefan Gilmore last night at the Combine Lobby.

He's probably here trying to lobby a team to give him a chance. And I would be shocked if that was kind of the route they go. But there's definitely a lot of spots that Quasi and Kevin that they are going to have to prioritize and fill. Is Mackay Blackman like a very definitive part of their plans in 2025? I think they'd prefer that to be the case. But he's a cornerback who's a little undersized coming off a torn ACL. And so that's the question. I'd say there's another guy I'll mention who was an undrafted free agent.

they've had a ton of success in that kind of acquisition channel over the last couple years. But Dwight McClothern was an undrafted free agent from Arkansas who they really think highly of. But, I mean, you know as well as I do. To go into a season with two cornerbacks who didn't play any meaningful snaps last year and to expect that to hold up, and that's a tall task. So I do think there's going to be another addition there, even if Byron Murphy Jr. is back. The other thing to keep in mind, beyond positions when it comes to the way that this team operates in free agency, look at where they've tried to shop with free agents.

The Jonathan Gernard thing to me is the most telling example. You have DeNeil Hunter on the roster. DeNeil Hunter is a free agent. You decide to move on from DeNeil Hunter and still give big money to an edge rusher. The reason for that is that Jonathan Gernard is five years younger than Daniel Hunter. Byroner Murphy was a young free agent. Marcus Davenport was a young free agent. Blake Hashman was 27 when they gave him.

that contract. So this free agent class is full of a lot of 29, 30, 31-year-old guys on third deals. My instinct is that the Vikings are not going to be shopping in those aisles as much as some other teams are, even if we conceive of them as a team that's on the cusp that could use some quick answers. Yeah, I mean, Quisito Femensa, he's a guy who studied injury curves, age curves. Like this is his background. That's kind of like his baby. That's the lens with which he comes at this thing. And I mean, the free agent class, you just mentioned all the guys they signed last year. I will say, like one guy who was a little older and had some injury stuff was an Andrew Van Ginkle. And that was obviously an incredible signing. So I think it's probably dependent on position.

If Brian Flores prioritizes a guy who might be a 20 not, like that's where A, it's probably smart to listen to Brian Flores. He's a unique case because he's so perfect. attuned to what they wanted to defensively. Exactly. But I do think, to your point, that is the outlier in terms of the guys that they seek. They just value age, both in the draft and free agency. They're not afraid if a guy has had injury history to take a shot. And they've been, I mean, you call it fortune, you call it luck, you could attribute it to the performance staff. But, I mean, that's been an aspect of when they've won, as many games they have, two of the last three years, they have had very good fortune from an injury perspective. And that's been huge when

they've signed some guys who have had injury histories in the past. Blake Cashman's career was riddled with injuries. Jonathan Grenard, similar. Andrew Van Gogh, the year before, had a foot injury that really made it hard for him in Miami. So, yeah, I think you're spot on with where they seek free agents is going to be in the realm that Kweciodofo Minta structures his portfolio, as he said yesterday. I'm very excited a year from now after I don't wish injury upon anyone, but after we get a borderline pro bowl season

from Daniel Jones as the Vikings quarterback having this exact conversation about what the Daniel Jones market will look like and re-including you in the most interesting teams of the off-season discussion. Literally, I mean, I enjoy talking to you, so if that's the way it goes. I mean, that's great for me in terms of the conversation

because it never stopped. Like, I've had readers commenting like, we're doing this again man it's like what what am i supposed to do that's how it goes we'll be doing this again a year from now so until then alick lewis sincerely appreciate the time always great to chat with you always fun robert thank you guys all right guys before we finish this off talking to chad graf our patriots writer we're going to take one more quick break joining us now is our patriots writer here at the athletic chad graph chat how you doing doing well how are you doing very well could use a little more sleep maybe but other than that yeah i i've got to a point now where i'm not there's a millennia

bit where he talks about how he's not old, but he's gross. Yes. I'm not old, but I'm gross. And so even if I'm not old, there are certain elements of my life that have changed, and one of them is just a complete inability to sleep in a hotel room. I don't know why. And this, I have no excuse because next year I'll do this. I drive to the combine.

And at some point, I'm going to bring a weighted blanket, my own pillow. Your proper pillow. I have to start doing that now. And the fact that we've arrived at that point in my life is, is pretty depressing because that's not how it used to be. Checking into the hotel with your little Blanky and your pillow as Mike Vrable and the others look on at you. That's also a very good point. This checking into a hotel at the Combine is a different process than checking into a hotel anywhere.

Not even just what I bring, but like what I'm wearing. Because oftentimes when I'm on the road, I have like a certain uniform for like coffee in the morning. It's a hoodie. It's flip flops. It's whatever. But you can't really go down and flip flops. to the J.W. Starbucks at the combine. Pump into Harbaugh and everybody else.

The way that you have to move through the world here is very different than you have to do it any sort of work trip that you're ever on. Yes. So what a delight to be here is the short answer. We're well rested and ready to rock. You're on 18 hours a day, is long and the short of it here. Let's talk about the New England Patriots. We had to have as part of this exercise because they have the most, it's a comical amount

of resources. Like every time I open the over the cap. page, it laughs at me. They have $128 million in cap space as it currently stands. They could probably get a little bit more if they wanted to cut people. I was like, I can't remember who it was today. It might have been Joanne Bentley. I was looking at like they could save like five million if they cut Joanne Bentley and I was like, why am I doing this? To what end? Yeah, exactly. Why did they need another five million? Just throw it on the money pile. So they have $128 million in cap space. And for the second straight year, their head coach at his first media availability of the

off season has essentially come in and say, we're going to spend that money. That didn't happen last year. And so as you think about the spending power of the New England Patriots with Mike Vrable there now, how do you approach or how do you expect them to approach the way that they're going to put a dent into that pile? They're going to be more deliberate with it. Last year, they had cash to burn was the famous phrase that Gerard Mayo infamously used. And then they didn't, of course, burn the cash Calvin Ridley. They were way in on him. They were offering more than the Titans. He said, I'm good on all that. Thank you very much. Couldn't get Iyuk, even though they were offering him a boatload of money. So after that pursuit of a wide receiver, they're kind of changing things now,

where I think I came into this, into this week thinking, of course they're going to go after T. Higgins or whatever wide receiver they can. I think what we've learned since is that's not the case. They are going to look at this as like a tried and true Mike Vrable. Give me the biggest bodies. We are offensive defensive line over and over. We're going to go get sweat or, you know, whoever we can to go get after the passer. And then, you know, if it's Ronnie Stanley or whoever we can on the offensive line, like that is the number one focus is to get so, so much better, O line, D line, big guys. We'll figure out the wide receiver later. Maybe it's Cooper Cup. Maybe it's a trade. But they are not top of the line shopping for

wide receiver. They are top of the line shopping for offensive and defensive line. So that is great to know. What do you think is the biggest deterrent to them chasing T. Higgins if you were to hit free agency? I think it's a few things. I think if he were to hit free agency, you're going to have to pay him as a top five wide receiver probably. You know, you're going to be inching toward 30 million a year. And I think there's a little bit of hesitancy given the number of games that he's played in recent years. Mike Vrable wants to build a tough football team that includes at times, as he often did as a player, playing through some injuries and playing through things. And then I think there's also question, you know, probably internally a little bit about whether

he is the tried and true number one guy. Like he's been a stud as a number two. Can he elevate a very bad situation that they have? And they have a wide receiver room that had a lot of immaturity last year and dealt with issues and it was just a constant source of headache for them. And so I think that they want a veteran more along the lines of Cooper Cup to come in and be a leader of that group, even if there's going to be limitations there. They want to run the ball, have a good offensive line.

and then, you know, Drake, you can take us from there. But we need to block for Drake May is basically how they're looking at it, more than we need to get Drake somebody to throw to. The T. Higgins injury thing, we probably haven't talked about that enough. Even on this show, or as we think about his profile as a free agent. I was talking to an executive yesterday who said something similar. They're not really in the wide receiver market, but essentially said, you know, people are going to pay,

somebody's going to pay $30 million for T. Higgins. Go look at the amount of games T. Higgins has played over the last couple years. And you and I don't have to do that. Sure. Like if T. Higgins misses four games, it doesn't affect our life, but it really does affect the people in these buildings. And so injury, history, how often are these guys going to be on the field is probably something we should bring up more when we're talking about these guys. Yes, and yet, so I understand the Patriot's skepticism there and the reasons why they want to go O-line D-Line. To your point, resources galore, and I just don't know if they can do enough to improve wide receiver.

Their number one wide receiver right now is DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kishon Boone, Kishon, What did we do it? That was my next question here. Let's say we go the Cooper Cup and the Pips route. How do you fill out the rest of that room? Because just Cooper Cup at this stage of his career is not an adequate solution for what is going on there. And so even though they have all these resources, I think they're still going to go into the year with realistically probably a bottom 10 wide receiver group, which I understand that the emphasis is in other areas, is in the defensive line, is in offensive line.

And so that's where they'll look with the number four pick. That's probably where they'll look with the second round pick. And yet, they have Drake May. Like, he was very exciting to watch, showed more than enough, I think, to earn the trust that, hey, I think we've got our guy for the next five plus years. And so, to me, you know, I think you have to do everything. Even if that's calling about Garrett Wilson or D.K. McCaff or somewhat crazy things where you're probably going to get a no anyway. I think you just have to get him something, somebody, even though that's not the focus right now. So let's think about it this way.

I feel like you can make a solid argument that if you look at the pool of receivers available in free agency and the pool of offensive linemen available in free agency, the offensive linemen are definitively more attractive. That's usually the case. Tackle is an exception, right? Very few years are there competent tackles available in the free agent market. This year is kind of an exception to that rule. Obviously, Ronnie Stanley is at the top of that list,

but even guys like an Alaric Jackson or a Dan Moore, there are more capable starters at left tackle in this free agent pool than in any year that I can remember. You extend it to interior offensive linemen. There's always starting caliber interior offensive linemen available. This year there aren't quite as many. It's actually kind of a flipped situation where there are fewer interior guys than there are tackles normally,

but you still have your Trace Smiths, you still have your Will Fries, you still have your Drew Dalman's. I think you can make a reasonable argument that if the Patriots wanted to spend a ton on the offensive line, you could come away from this free agent period with a starting five you felt good about, and then it would free you up to potentially use draft recess. sources at receiver if you wanted to. Do you think that's a reasonable approach? Yes. I mean,

they are 100% going to try to completely revamp the offensive line in free agency to the point where they don't have to bank on Will Campbell having 33-inch arms or... Because the development track at offensive line is a little bit more uncertain than it is at other positions. And so I think, I'm thinking about this as a Bears fan, spending on the offensive line and then using your high upside picks on defensive line and things like that, I actually like that as a general approach. Obviously specifics change, but as a philosophy, I can get behind that. And so I think a very reasonable expectation would be for the Patriots to completely revamp

the offensive line in free agency, at a pass rusher, whether it's sweat or somebody else, and then draft Mason Graham at number four as a defensive tackle at number four overall. And then you've got your second round pick as a wide receiver. Is there a track record great with that? Probably not. Certainly not. But that is, I think, a very, very reasonable path. for them this off season to bulk up O-line free agency,

use that number four pick on D-line, and then you hope that you hit on that day two wide receiver. Track record, not great there. Let's go through some of this, because it's worth going through the list. Okay, here are receivers from the New England Patriots that have been drafted with a 30th picker later. Jalen Polk, Tyquan Thornton, going through this.

This is just second round, because I also had Jayvon Baker last year who did not do anything. I'm talking about, like, in that general range. So we have those two guys, and then you have to keep going to like, Aaron Dobson was... You can include Nikkiyle Harry. Eran Dobson was the second round pick. You keep going down the list. I mean, there's just so many examples of them going that direction and that area of the draft.

And we do this too often. Like, the sins of Bill Belichick when they drafted Chad Jackson should not apply to Elliot Wolf. But Patriots fans don't think about that. All they think about is the scarred history of drafting receivers and missing out of them over and over and over again. Well, and it doesn't help that every time I see Dane Bruegler, he's talking about how this wide receiver group, boy, not super impressive. I don't know. This is one of the weaker classes that we've seen in recent years.

That doesn't exactly inspire confidence for what's going to be there at Pick 38 or whatever it is. It's funny because Dane was just sitting here before we started recording. And he's almost like, either way, he's either like a little angel of death or something else. Like, he can just pop in and make you feel really good or really bad and then just leave 30 seconds later. And like, that's the sort of power he wields over the next two months. For fans here, he's the grim reaper of like, oh, my God, Patriots fans, these wide receivers, this is not the group that you should be looking for. Or he can drop into one of these tables and be like, listen, with the positions they need

and the range they're picking, this is great. And then he just walks away. That's the role that he's flagged right now. So I think that as a spending plan makes sense. Defense, on offense, I can see it, right? Like, I know they need offensive line. I know they need receiver. Defense is maybe a little bit more muddled.

in terms of their needs. Edge rusher is something you mentioned. It feels like outside corner or something else that they could potentially go after. If you were stacking up priorities on that side of the ball, what would that look like for you? It's right up front, first of all. Like, edge rusher is a disaster.

After they traded Matthew Judon, they knew it was going to be a work in progress and it was more than a work in progress. Ranked dead last in sacks, even though they sat Caleb Williams nine times and still ranked in one game, still ranked last in the NFL in sacks. Yeah, I remember that game.

You may have some memories there. 31st in pressure rate, just a disaster there. So I think it starts with both edge rusher and interior because they thought they were going to have Christian Barmore as an interior past Russian guy. It's still a little bit up in the air as he deals with blood clots if he's going to return to his former form, what his status is. Do they expect him to play this year, though?

Frable said we'll know more at the end of April. That sucks, man. Yeah, it's unfortunate. So I think you look at those two spots early, defensive tackle and edge rusher. And then, like, as great as Christian Gonzalez was, and I think as promising as his future, you need another corner opposite him. Like, they've had so many small guys, Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones,

that they've tried on the outside just because they didn't have a lot of other options and they were fast. But they need somebody to take the load off of Christian Gonzalez. Because as we saw, you know, against the Chargers with Lab McConkey and so many other games, you know, they can take away an opponent's top wide receiver and they can do very little else. And the other problem is I think Belichick just had a lot of guys that he made really good. And I think in the absence of that, we'll see what Juan Bentley is without him. We'll see what Tevi is without Belichick.

But I just think the shine of those guys, Kyle Dugger, comes down a little bit without Belichick, coordinating and running that defense. So I think that kind of brings me my next question. As I look at the defense, maybe the question isn't, what do they need? it's who are the actual building blocks that would prevent them from drafting a player at that position. So as you think about, let's say, the 2027 in New England Patriots, who currently on this roster can you definitively say is going to be a part of this plan when they're ready to be competitive?

It's sad. It's Christian Gonzalez, cornerback, Drake May, quarterback, and I think our conversation, frankly, kind of ends. If we're talking 2027, like multiple years from now. Keon White's still good. Sure. Yes. Kean White's good, fine. Outside of that, like,

legitimately, is Jalen Polk just because he was drafted in the second round last year? He had a historically bad for a wide receiver draft in the top 50. Like, he would be a total outlier if he somehow suddenly turns this around. So I just, I don't think there are, like, the positive spin would be cornerback, super important, quarterback, super important. We got those two premier spots. everywhere else, kind of a total question mark. And that shouldn't be surprising when a team has $130 million in cap space.

Back to back four win seasons. Yeah, that's naturally the place you get led, but I guess I'm still just kind of getting used to the Patriots being this sort of team. And that takes me to the next thing I want to talk about here. The NFLPA report card came out today. The Patriots were 31st overall. There were a lot of Fs, there were a lot of Ds. this is a loaded and broad question, but I'm going to lay it on you anyway.

Are the New England Patriots a good organization? I still think the answer is yes, but it's not as quick of a yes as it used to be. It's not as definitive of a yes as it used to be. They have reacted to the report card. There's a new facility popping up in the parking lots of Gillette Stadium right now that they are confident and hope will improve their rankings in that survey. But this is a... They got a Bar-Louie, though.

So, I mean, like, they're crushing it over there. Patriot plays is hopping. Do they still have one? Is that still there? They do, yes. It's still there. You were right. The CBS Sports Lounge is not anymore.

But I think that emphasizes how big of an off-season this is for them. That if they toil away three straight years and the free agency spending isn't there and they're whiffing in the draft, like, that is how you quickly go from premier NFL franchise in the wilderness lost a little bit. Lost a lot of bit. So this is massive for them to spend the money in free agency, to dramatically overhaul the offensive and

defensive lines, and just to show competence with Mike Vrable. The bar is low. They were not competent in a lot of games last year. They were not competitive. They were arguably the worst football team in the NFL by the end of the season. Their lone win preventing

them from getting the number one pick in the last game of the season. They should have the number one pick right now. The bar is very low. I think they are still a good organization, but this is a massive, massive, massive offseason to prove that and show some progress. The last thing I'll ask you is just about kind of the people in charge and the power structure there now.

One of the reasons outside of Drake May that I felt like the Patriot stop was attractive, especially for somebody like Mike Vrable who has asserted a level of control at other stops, there was a power vacuum in New England, right? Like Elliot Wolf was kind of promoted as a de facto act GM. There isn't anybody established that's in charge of how that building gets run. And we're not too far removed from them having a coach-centric way that things get run. So as you're thinking about

how decisions are getting made in that building, what the dialogue is looking like, how do you stack up the roles between what Elliott Wolf is doing, what Mike Vrable is doing, just how things are structured there right now. So of course, right now everybody will say collaboration. And collaboration is great until there's a decision to be made in the second round. Do we want this guy or this guy. In Elliot Wolfe's contract, he's the guy that they have to submit. Yep, this guy is final say. But Mike Fable was pretty blunt and chose his words carefully yesterday in like a side session with reporters of, I knew what I was getting when I came here. And I think he's of course alluding to the fact that he is going to have final say. This is an organization that is comfortable with a head

coach who has a lot of power and has a lot of say. And so I think he's going to be the guy who, you know, if there's a final debate in the sixth round, he's the tiebreaker. If there's a final debate over the 53rd guy on the roster, Mike Vrable is the tiebreaker. So this is very much Mike Vrable's team. Who they draft in the first round is going to be because of Mike Vrable. Who they sign him free agency

is going to be through his image and how he foresees things. The job when you look at the roster, not super enticing, but what they can offer is a lot of power, and I think Mike Vrable is about to have that. We've talked about this a lot of the show.

to blabre the point, but the idea that they made such a show last year being like, we're done with the Belichick thing, we're done with this model of things. And then a year later, they are back running into the arms of like a powerful, all-seeing head coach and hired my Josh McDaniels to be their offensive coordinator. It's just, there's something so delicious about it to me. Yes. And, you know, it was probably the best option for them. Like, they kind of fell into it. I'm not disputing that at all. The veracity of it is okay. But it's, just the model of it is what is very ironic and funny to me. Very fair. So here the Patriots are with embracing that first dynasty of Mike

Rabel and everything that he meant to that group. We'll see how they're going to start spending their money here in about 10 or so days. Chad Graff sincerely appreciate the time, sir. Always great to catch up with you. Thank you for having me. All right, that's all we got for today. Thank you to Alec. Thank you to Paul. Thank you to Chad Graf. Really appreciate them spending their time with us and appreciate all of the writers who came

on the show this week. It really is fun to be here over four or five days and just recognize the collective kind of manpower that we have at the athletic and just the quality of the coverage, the breadth of the coverage that we're able to do around the NFL. And it's fun to showcase that for you guys. The level of knowledge that just the intimate familiarity with why these teams are the way that they are, how that they operate, that is something we are uniquely positioned to give you and really enjoyed doing that over the last few days.

hope you guys did as well. For now, that's all we got. We'll be back tomorrow just doing rumor mill stuff. That's what we're going to do. We're going to tap into what the conversations have been like here at the Combine over the last few days with a good buddy of mine, Dan Graziano, who does a great job covering the league for ESPN. Until then, sincerely, I appreciate you guys listening. We will talk to you very soon.