The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The players who can swing the 2024 NFL season

Episode Date: July 16, 2024

Players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have the league in the palm of their hand. We know that. Identifying the wild card players who can swing their team's outcome, and thus that of the league as a whole, is a bit trickier. Bill Barnwell of ESPN joins Robert Mays to try and find those players on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysWith: Bill BarnwellExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Bill on X: @billbarnwell Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Our old buddy Bill Barnwell is here to do an exercise that we did last season around this time. Last year we did 10-ish guys that we thought could swing the season. You know, players that have important but somewhat murky roles or impacts for some of the best most ambitious teams in the league. And that's what we're going to do again this year.

You know, talk about maybe a dozen or so guys that we feel like could swing the season for their teams and by extension, swing the season overall as we project what the 2024 league year might look like in the NFL. So very much enjoyed my conversation with Barnwell. Let's get to it. Joining us now, it is my good friend from ESPN, Bill Barnwell. Bartow, how you doing, man? Mays. You know, I did NFL live on Thursday. Yeah, I saw it.

it was the Robert Mays podcast partner show. Yeah, my career has taken a real downturn compared to the rest of you. Stop,

shut up. I brought it up not to taunt you, but instead to just say that there's eight weeks until the start of the NFL season that graphic popped up as we began the show.

And I have that little like creeping anxiety in the back of my neck. Like, I'm excited about football, but like all the the projects I had during the off season, all the other things, I'm like, okay, I'm going to, you know, I'm going to study run fits. I'm going to get better at math. None of that stuff happened. Yeah, that's always a problem. All the things I want to do and want to study in May and

June, they eventually just go by the way. It's like, oh, well, I'm going on vacation in May. Yeah. So how am I going to fit that in? And then the season's just here again. And that version of this, for me, this week was I booked all the hotels for my training camp tour. And so now it's just real. Like, I, I leave in nine days. and I'm going to be on the road for almost a month, which I absolutely love. I love this time of year. And even as we went through this exercise and we're talking about some of these teams with a wide range of outcomes and what things might look like, I found myself excited to talk to people in those spots.

Like, what is this going to look like? What are you guys planning? So the summer is almost over. But I am very much looking forward to getting back into the swing of things and especially starting to have conversations around this stuff with people. Yeah, that is obviously the fun part. and I feel like this is one of the tent polls, right? Like I did my, not ten polls, but like I did my weekly, or my month. I don't know how words work.

Annual, annual column. I did my offseason playmakers list column, which is like, okay, you are getting into the thick of it. And I feel like last year, one of the things I did is I was getting into the thick of it in the summer was talking to you about this very topic. We're going to do the same show, a version of the same show we did last year, which is 10-ish guys, because you know, I'm going to throw like six more guys on there.

No question. That we think can swing the season one way or the other. And my list is mostly players that I think are going to be on borderline playoff teams. And I think these guys are going to be central to how the seasons for those teams go. And by extension, that's going to play into what the playoff picture looks like, what the championship picture looks like. So those are the types of guys I zeroed in on as part of this exercise. Yeah. And also, I feel like we could do a version of this that's just a quarterback.

obviously knowing you, I know that you didn't do that, but there is always that thing of like, how many people, how many quarterbacks are we going to name? How many people are we going to have identical to one another? Like, I feel like there's a, there's certain things I feel like I had to avoid and putting together my side of this list. I had one quarterback. I'll mention a couple more as a subsection of that quarterback, but I only have one quarterback. And I think our minds work differently enough that I don't think there's going to be a ton of crossover between the list that we brought to this. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my feel for it. I believe the listeners are setting the line at one and a half players for our crossover. I think that's right. I think one and a half sounds about right. So who, let's start with the quarterback and let's see if we have the same quarterback. Who did you include to kick off this exercise? I picked Aaron Rogers. Yeah, you can't do this without having Aaron Rogers. He was also the first name that came to mind for me. Players who can swing in the season, Aaron Rogers has to be the first name out of your mouth because we literally saw what he can do to swing a season last year.

In the wrong direction. Yes. Yeah. I mean, obviously, even if you eliminate getting injured on the first drive of the first game moments after you've carried an American flag out onto the field as the range of outcomes for Aaron Rogers, even if it's just quarterbacks who have a significant range of outcomes in their play over 17 games, Aaron Rogers is still the biggest one, right? I mean, we're dealing with a player playing now into his 40s, who we did not see last year, who was okay the year before. I don't think he was as bad as the numbers indicated, but like, I think QBR had him

in like the bottom quarter of the league starting quarterbacks. And then the year before was the MVP. So we're talking about a player here who credibly you can make the case that he is going to be an MVP candidate. this year. And you could credibly make the case that he is going to be benched for Tyron Taylor or just back up this year. It is Tyrod Taylor. I don't think you can credibly make that case. I think you can credibly make a case that he is not going to be a very good quarterback. And considering all the things on his shoulders as part of that Jets set up and structure,

if he's not a very good quarterback, the Jets are in a lot of trouble on offense. They are, but like, even if Aaron Rogers was, I don't know, I'm trying to think of a bad old quarterback. Even if, this is a perfect example, if Aaron Rogers was the, uh, Peyton Manning from the final season with the Broncos. Oh, absolutely no way. They won the Super Bowl with that guy. Well, okay. If you drop that paid Manning onto this Jets team, what do you think the outcome would be? Nine and eight?

Like, that's still better than Zach Wilson, I feel like. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but nine and eight. not Super Bowl winning. So I think for them to reach anything close to the heights that they want and their fans want, he needs to be much, much better than 2015 Peyton Manning. He needs to be better than 2014 Peyton Manning for them to get where they want to go. Sure. I mean, you're not aiming for 2015 Peyton.

I'm just saying, like, the quarterback play was so bad the last couple of years with Zach that I feel like just having someone who's not going to actively put the ball in danger week after week on purpose is a major upgrade for the Jets of quarterback. There's no doubt. And I think Peyton Manning is honestly a pretty good name to throw out here because one of the reasons I think that Aaron Rogers is such an obvious choice here, any quarterback for the most part could swing the direction and the outcomes of their season for their team.

But he's also the offensive coordinator, right? And that's what Peyton Manning was. And when you look at the guys that are veteran quarterbacks who have moved from team to team late in their careers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, they've brought. the Peyton Manning and Tom Brady offenses with them. Their ability to oversee how things were going to function on that side of the ball was key for the success of those teams. And I think you can say the exact same thing about Aaron Rogers.

So this is more than about his play and what version of him as a quarterback we get physically the rest of that. Him kind of taking on this mantle of like, I'm setting what this offense is going to look like, feel like, be like. that's also a huge part of this for me. Well, that logic makes sense to me. At the same time, if you recall, I believe there was reporting about that first series. So they ran, if I'm not mistaken, they ran quick game. They ran slants and they cut with their tackles. So they had their two tackles.

I know this is a big week for jargon. Shout out to Pablo. So I'm going to describe, I'm going to explain what a cup lock is here. You know, the two tackles died at the defensive lineman's knees to slow them down. Ball is supposed to get out before those linemen can get back up. The ball did not get out before those linemen can get back up. Reportedly, Aaron Rogers does not like that. And yet, on the only series of the season, he played for the Jets, they were cutting on two of the four plays.

So let me be clear about this. I don't think he's determining the blocking scheme and approach on any given play. I'm talking about autonomy at the line of scrimmage, the way that the verbiage is used. like overall ownership of which plays are being called and what the overall menu of the offense looks like. I think that Aaron Rogers has a larger hand in that than probably any other quarterback currently playing in the NFL if I had to make a guess. Sure.

But at the same time, like, I'm not, he, that's still, that was, that was 50% of the menu in that, in what you saw from Aaron Roger. I just think, I wonder if Aaron Rogers is someone who, one of the reasons he likes Nathaniel Hackiness, he can, he feels like he has someone who he has someone who he trust so he can kind of put those responsibilities off to. Like I think, I think Payton, trust is very important to Aaron Rogers. I think Payton, like, he wanted to be the one in charge of the offense. I think, you know, most quarterbacks, I don't know that Aaron Rogers wants that.

Maybe he wants to have that off his mind so we can focus on whatever Aaron Rogers wants to focus on on the weekly basis. I would say false. Based on every interaction I've had with Aaron Rogers and what he wants and his understanding of what other quarterbacks are allowed to do or what they were allowed to do. I mean, I remember vividly a conversation I had with him when we were talking in maybe he was 2019 or 2020. It was after Matt LeFlu had gotten there. And it was that whole process of them kind of marrying the way that Aaron wanted to play with some of that autonomy at the line of scrimmage and the way that Matt's offense operates.

And I vividly remember Aaron mentioning six veteran quarterbacks of what they get to do with the line of scrimmage. He was like, well, you know, Drew gets to do this and Tom gets to do this and Ben gets to do this. And he knows. And he, I think he is very well. aware of that and I think he also understands what he wants out of this process. So I do think he has a lot on his shoulders beyond just what we put on quarterbacks, especially in the modern NFL, where there's more pre-snap stuff taken off of their plate than I think, you know, in any recent time in modern football. So what, just on the football level in terms of his play, what do you expect from him?

That's the tough part, right? I mean, he's basically going to be 12 months removed from an Achilles injury. he's not he he he's mobile and when I think people hear the word mobile they think Josh Allen they think Jalen Hertz Rogers is different in a mobile way right like he is mobile in terms of he has incredible pocket movement he's incredible at getting himself ready to throw on a moment's notice he's mobile in the sense of like 30 years ago we would talk about him like he's you know, Patrick Mahomes now. Like the, obviously the range of mobility, like the ceiling for mobility has increased so dramatically that Rogers might not see mobile in that way, but he is very clearly mobile in terms of being a functional quarterback. And so what I wonder early in the season

is how much do we see of that? How much can Rogers sort of do in terms of setting and resetting, in terms of his footwork, in terms of his consistency? Because to me, it's not like he's going to forget how to play quarterback, but the question is, is he going to have five plays per game where he's not planting and he loves a ball up that is uncatchable or intercepted because of that? Are there going to be moments where he, you know, gives up on a play quicker than maybe he would have in the past because he doesn't trust his ability to move around? Like, I think that's the, you know, the initial stuff I want to see is just, okay, how much does he look like Aaron Rogers from the, from the knees down, you know, early in the season? In the big picture,

I mean, I think he's going to be fine. They have playmakers. I mean, the more I've looked at Breeze Hall season from last year, the more impressed I am with how he performed and how I feel like he's maybe, the example I gave was like the most likely player in the NFL who's not Christian McCaffrey to have a Christian McCaffrey season. I feel like is Breece Hall right now. So I'm not concerned about that, but I think you're going to get something that is less

consistent than Rogers, but still has some of the upside. seen with years past. Yeah, we did an exercise when we were doing the lingering questions for each division when we did the AFC. And my question was, what was Aaron Rogers the last time we saw him? Just because it had been so long, I was curious to go back and watch the 2022 Packers. And my conclusion at the end of watching a few of those games late in the season was he still has all the clubs in the bag. He still physically at that point could make all the throws. To me, it was just a question of engagement. Like by the end of that year, he was just clearly fucking over it. With all those young receivers, I think that it had just run its course there.

But the question is, is he the same guy physically that he was at the end of the 2022 season? We don't know that. He's a year removed from Achilles. He's two years older now. So if he is physically and then it becomes a question of how engaged and how invested he is, then I think this could go very well. But if he's physically diminished and it's not just a matter of how much he wants to be a part of this, then it's a whole different set of questions.

So I'm confident that we're going to see. the above average quarterback play from the Jets this year. And what that ultimately means, I think it goes a lot of different directions. We know that defense is a little volatile, but this defense has been truly elite for the last couple years. I think that their offensive line is vastly improved from where it was last year and they have built-in contingency plans. The weapons I'm a little bit more worried about than you, just because I think we're

one Mike Williams injury and one Malachi Corley not developing timeline to the same set of weapons they had last year. And that's concerning to me. But overall, it is a much better situation offensively for the Jets than it was a year ago, even taking Aaron Rogers out of the equation. You're not on board for the Allen Lissard redemption year? I'm okay. I think that Aaron Lazzard will look better with Aaron Rogers than he did with Zach Wilson. But I can absolutely see a path in a timeline whereby week eight were like, man, the Jets need another receiver.

But they can do that. Like they did get a couple extra picks in the draft this year by trading down. They are actually reasonable position to add someone at the deadline. And they have every reason to do so, right? Yeah, I think so. I mean, because this year is what matters, right? This year and potentially next year are what matters. So if they want to make some all in moves that are more about salvaging this season

and salvaging some jobs with the people in charge, in this case, I tappily support that. Definitely is a good way to put it. Okay. Should we move on to somebody else? Well, I had two of the quarterbacks I wanted to mention just very quickly. Just guys that I think you could have thrown in here. Deshawn Watson is one of them. He was on the list we did last year,

and I think he deserves to be on the list again this year. I don't know what the Brown's defense is going to look like. I don't think they'll be historically good, like the way they were last season, but they still have a shitload of talent on that side of the ball, and they still have a lot of pieces on offense. And I think their ceiling is ultimately going to be determined about what sort of quarterback play,

what level of quarterback that play they get from a guy that they're paying $63 million against the cap. I don't think that's an interesting point. I don't think that's a novel point, but I think it's worth me. mentioning in this sort of exercise. And the other guy I wanted to throw out just because I think that there are enough component parts elsewhere, play caller, offensive line, good enough defense.

I like the past catchers and the possibility of it all coming together. So intrigued. I'm like, eight people are cycling through my head as you say this. Anthony Richardson. Yeah. If Anthony Richardson takes a big step and he is really good this year and the mental reps that he got last year are enough for us to see some refined. in the person that he is combined with all of that physical talent,

then I think the Colts suddenly get very interesting. But it's totally reasonable to not expect him to take that step. He's going to be in his fifth start, you know, when this season gets going. I mean, he started 13 games in college. Like, there's plenty of reasons to think that if the jump is coming for Anthony Richardson, it's not coming for this year. But if it does, I think the Colts suddenly become very interesting in the AFC South. And to me, it's not a binary thing either, right?

Like, it's not crazy to imagine. Anthony Richardson's second half of 2024 looking a lot different and a lot better than his first half of 2024. Absolutely. It doesn't need to come out of the gates, guns blazing. But I think that ultimately where he lands is going to be very important for figuring out that division and, you know, potentially the wildcard weekend in the AFC. Absolutely. I mean, they were a near wildcard team even without him last year.

So like there's real upside if they managed to get this right. Who's your next one? Let's, hmm, quarterbacks out of the way. Should I throw you a bone and say center? Can I throw a center in the mix? Let's do it, yeah. Can you guess which center it is?

I truly have no idea because no centers even crossed my mind. Is it Cam Jurgens? It's Cam Jurgens of the Philadelphia Eagles where, I mean, obviously, the shoes to fill here are incredibly large. with Jason Kelsey. And I don't think you can expect Cam Jergens to be Jason Kelsey from day one. But this is an Eagles team where the offensive line is still going to be good, but they are not going to be as deep or as polished or as experienced as they've been before. I know they're converting Mackay back to the guard. Maybe he'll be a great guard. I don't know. But to have Jergens in there now, you're, the bar's incredibly high.

and you're asking a lot of him. And no, I don't think they're going to have him beat Jason Kelsey 2.0. I don't think he's going to be pulling four or five times a game. Like, I think it's going to be more of a traditional center, but there is that tush-push element to their offense, where that was Jalen Hertz and Jason Kelsey making magic happen. And is Cam Jerkins that guy? Is it something they can coach or teach?

I'm not sure. But that's a, that was kind of what kept them afloat at times last year before they really started struggling late in the season. I believe if Cam Juergens is not up to the task, that offense changes. They can't be as creative. They can't be as dominant. They have to be more conservative. And I don't know that this team has that kind of margin for error.

I mean, I know the moves they made this off season are promising. I know people like a lot of their young players. They should. But this is a team, I believe they outscored their opponents by like six points all year, five points all season. They were a 500 team by point differential and they went 11 and 6. And if you've listened to me ever talk about anything in football before, you know what I'm going to say. Like that is a, like the evidence says this team's going to be worse. And I believe if they are worse, we're going to be looking at that spot and say, man, they really missed having a Hall of

Famer at the pivot. Yeah, you're talking about the physical stuff, which I think is absolutely worth mentioning. I'm concerned and curious about the preset mechanics. Yeah. And about the the mental load that he takes on within that offense. It's honestly one of the things I'm really curious about asking people when I'm in Philadelphia three weeks from now. What is that going to look like? Who's taking on that sort of work? What do things look like and sound like before the snap?

And kind of an adjacent thing to this, one of the guys I had is a secondary name on my list was Colin Moore because that's another huge part of what I'm curious about with this team is, all right, now that we're going to a more traditional sort of offense. and approach, I think is what you would say. They had a very specific way that they did things in Philly over the last couple years. And it worked for them because of the talent that they had and how streamlined it could feel.

But now they're going to a place where hopefully there is a better plan against pressure. There is a more diversified drop-back passing game. Better plan. There is a plan, right? But the Kelmore part of that is huge. But I also think the center and his role in that is a big question that I have. So I think Cam Jergens is worth mentioning.

I think the differences with this, this year's Eagles offense and what that means for them was a necessary part of this exercise, whatever name you ended up choosing. Yeah, for sure. And I mean, we've heard the quotes. Jaylen Hertz has said 95% of the offense is new. I, when we get to week one, I'll be surprised if 95% of the stuff they run is Kellynne Moore stuff. But to me, I think the bigger question is what happens when there's adversity?

Because there's going to be struggles. There's going to be some hiccups. and when they struggle, are they going to have the confidence in themselves to stick with what Kellyn Moore is bringing? Or are they going to go back to more of what they did the past couple of seasons? Because it felt like that had kind of run its course and maybe they're going to go back to that for a spark. I just think there's a, you know, there's a real curiosity about this team because of how last year ended. It felt like it wasn't just, oh, we need to improve. It was, oh, maybe we're fundamentally wrong about some things. And you saw what they did

this off season. They spent a good amount of money. on a running back. They spent money on a middle linebacker. They brought back Chauncey Gardner Johnson, who they did not want to give a long-term deal to the year before and who was hurt for most of last year. It's not like anything changed about Chauncey Gardner Johnson to justify a long-term contract. They made multiple draft picks at cornerback. They really seemed to fundamentally reshift and think about how they wanted to approach roster construction from the top town. and I'm intrigued to see if that actually helps things or if they continue to sort of flounder a bit, based on how they played the second half of last year.

And beyond roster construction, again, it's the structure of the office and what things look and feel like. I mean, this is a team that lived in its own universe over the last couple years for good and for ill, and they are going very far away from that by bringing in a guy like Kellan Moore. And a big question I have about this team, period, is just how combustible is this? Yeah. Because last year it felt very combustible. Oh, yeah. You semi-fire your defensive coordinator halfway through the season.

It feels like you're just grasping for straws. There's so much staff turnover. How much built-in equity is there with the players in this coaching staff? And that includes Nick Siriani. So it's going to be something worth monitoring. And I think the Kellyn Moore and Cam Juergens and all the new pieces of it all are the things that ultimately are going to dictate which direction this goes. The guy I had next to Kellyn Moore kind of in my, I had three coordinators, one being at the top spot. The first one that I had, and the name that I'm most interested in here, is Jeff Hathley.

Yes, two. The new Packers Defense. We had two. We got the over. So I said this for the first time earlier this week, and I don't want to try out the same talking points on every single podcast. But I do think that it's worth mentioning again here. If I had to pick a defense this season that would take a diet version of the Browns jump from last year, it would be the Packers. Yeah.

because the Packers already have the talent in my mind to make a pretty substantial jump. Cleveland needed to go out last year and add more bodies along the defensive line. They need to go get Dalvin Tomlinson. They need to go get to Daria Smith. The Packers already have those guys. The only team last year with a higher pressure rate when rushing four than the Green Bay Packers was the Dallas Cowboys. That's it. And they go six deep up front.

I think that defensive tackle Carl Brooks, who's going to be in his second. year. I think he is a guy poised to take a big step. We saw some flashes from Lucas Van Ness last year. It came in pretty raw, but definitely has some intriguing tools. So you have that as the baseline of who this team is. If you get some better health at corner, which I hear Alexander, maybe Eric Stokes is kind of a luxury, even though I don't even think he's necessary to this whole thing. You bring in Xavier McKinney on the back end, another Brown similarity when they brought in one Thornhill last year. I think McKinney is even a more dynamic player. So if you think the parts are in place is halfly the guy to potentially unlock this by changing what this defense is

stylistically in a similar way to what Jim Schwartz did with the Browns last year. If the answer to that is yes, and we think the offense and Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur can keep things going in the way that they already have, this team gets really interesting, really fast. Right. No question. They're already interesting, you know, to be frank. It's just a matter of like, are they the favorites in the NFC North. Are they every bit as good as the 49ers? Like, that's not out of the realm of possibility if the defense is right because I think Jordan Love was number one in QBR over the final seven weeks of the season. And that is not a, you know, sometimes QBR, I love QBR. It's helpful. Sometimes, like, Daniel Jones was number one in

QBR for a short sample in 2022. Like, Jordan Love was backing that up with how he played on tape. I mean, I think his game against the Chiefs was maybe one of the three or four best games any quarterback played. last year. I don't think I need to sell you on Jordan Love. He's really good. I was actually curious about how you felt about him because I think he's one of those guys that the flashes are tantalizing. Like they're intoxicating. But you're somebody who I always appreciate you kind of digging one layer deeper and looking at where the holes might be that some of the rest of us aren't seeing. So you're also bullish on Jordan Love in a similar way that a lot of other people and the football cognizente seem to be. Yes. I mean, he's not going to post like a 17 to

one touchdown to interception ratio. next year over like the second half of the year, the way he did a year ago. But like he is really promising. For a guy who had very little experience as the year run on looked more and more poised, looked more and more confident, didn't make many of the same mistakes over and over again. And that's that's kind of half the battle. Like the athleticism was there. The arm strength is already there. The traits were there. I'm not, I'm not concerned about Jordan Love in the slightest. But back to Halfley. Halfley is, I think, the really fascinating person here. Because of what he's going to do with this defense, which is at odds, really, with kind of the, what's been the

meta of the NFL in recent seasons. So Jeff Hathley was the coach at Boston College the last four years. And at BC, he ran single high 67% of the time. He was the, it was the highest single high rate for any team in the country by, I believe, five percentage points. That's how frequently they were in single high looks. And this is a lot of the same. Zalik. I don't think I'm saying anything unique or new to people who listen to this podcast. Nothing new. The Fangio defense, the split safety, you know, umbrella takeaway, big play style defense is propagated around the NFL over the past two years. That's gone up. Their usage has gone up. You could argue maybe it's peaked. You could argue that maybe, you know, we've seen some of the

limitations to the Fangio defense. We've seen teams get more comfortable attacking it. And maybe the Packers are ahead of the curve here in a way. But very clearly, there are a problem. which is going to be to play single high on a frequent basis. And you saw that with the moves they made this off season in a market at safety where basically nobody got big money. The one guy who did was Xavier McKinney, who the Packers signed on the first day of free agency for significant money. They used a second round pick this year on Javon Bullard, who played free safety for Georgia last year, who had been playing the star role in the past for Kirby Smart. You know, a player who they think, and I imagine Ken, play single high center field in the NFL. So yes, they're going to rotate their guys on and out. They're going to give different looks. They're going to disguise who's going to be in center field. But I do think this is going to be one of the most single high, heavy, man heavy defenses in football. And so you said Eric Stokes is a luxury. And I think you have to approach it that way because of his injury history. But the Browns had really good cornerbacks last year.

Yeah. And guys who on paper had been great for stretches and who improved across the board. and played like elite cornerbacks across the board. I am intrigued to see if the Packers can hold up playing single high, playing more man, and trusting that their really impressive front can get home more often. While you were talking, I wanted to look up the numbers for the Browns, specifically from last year to see what their single high rate was. The Browns played single high last year at about 71% of opponent dropbacks if you combine cover three and cover one.

So that, again, one more similarity that we might see with the Packers. I'm with you and that the Brown's corners allowed them to play that way. And I think it's a marriage of the past Russian coverage. And I think that's why that defense was so good. I, if you go back and listen to me talking about football three years ago and just this real fascination with this move to the too high world and just umbrella coverage and limiting explosives. And I was very much on board with that.

But I've softened on that a little bit just because I do think that defense is more about play style and mindset and personnel than it is. necessarily about structures. Yes. And this defense specifically, and I think the Browns were very similar last year, you look at the way the Browns played on defense before Jim Schwartz got there, and there was just a passivity to it that was very frustrating. And I think that the Packers were in the exact same boat.

It wasn't the same defensive system, but still a similar amount of too high, a lot of zone coverage, and that they didn't even have like that attacking front they were supposed to have. Their front played passive in a way that the Browns didn't even do under Joe Woods. So I'm very excited to see a stylistic mindset change from this team, even if it leads to more vulnerabilities in the way that they want to play on the back end. I think that the pluses on the front end of that are going to potentially outweigh the minuses with the defensive back personnel. And I think when you come out on the other side, this unit becomes much more interesting and much scarier, even if they don't have the cornerback talent that a team like Cleveland had. Yeah. And one guy who I think exemplifies that is Jim Schwartz himself. Like Jim Schwartz has not always played like super heavy, you know, one man. Like he's, he's been more conservative at times when he's had worse secondary. So I think that's not just a Robert May's idea, but also a, you know, I think that stretches across different coordinators and how I think good coordinators approach defensive football. Yeah, I agree. And so we'll see what the coverage menu ultimately looks like. But I think a more attacking mindset and let's get after.

some people rather than let's limit explosive plays. I think it benefits to this group in a way it might not even some other defenses around the NFL. Yes, I agree. One more defense coordinator I want to mention just because I'm fascinated by how this goes, and I do think it's going to have a big impact, is Mike Zimmer. Yeah. I mean, what does this look like in Dallas?

Because they still got a shitload of good players down there. And I'm wondering, with them maybe transitioning to a more conservative, quote-unquote, style and not playing as much man and being a little bit harder to decipher, what does that mean for this Dallas defense? And there's a chance that they're not equipped to play that way. You look at the corners and just how they've been successful over the last few years. If we're going to go to a Zimmer world where they're playing a little bit more quarters and it's not as man heavy, how does that fit with the personnel that they have?

But I think that there is a world where it actually benefits them where you get the best of both worlds. You get to have your cake and eat it too, where you still have these super aggressive corners, you still have this really dynamic pass rush, but maybe you're a little bit harder to get a beat on than those Dan Quinn teams have been over the last couple years. That's the best case scenario. I don't know if we ultimately see that. It's been a couple of years since we saw Mike Zimmer as a defensive coordinator. But I'm really curious if we can get to a place that's even close to that. Well, I mean, when you have this level of talent, like you can make anything work. Like in the best case scenario, like if you have two or three absolute freaks up front, You have, you know, a couple cornerbacks who can create an interception every single game, you know, like that. You're going to be able to make a lot of stuff work.

The question is, you know, like, you know, how optimizes that for your personnel and how optimizes that for what you want to do? And I think the other part is how we talk about us with the Eagles, like, like how much pushback is there when that doesn't work? Like this Cowboys team has seen their defense be great the past couple of seasons with Dan Quinn. And, you know, we can think of defenses like last year with the Eagles are a perfect example where like when you bring in an outsider, you make changes and they don't go well, revolt can happen. Even with the dolphins with Fangio, I think are a good example last year as well. Yeah. Yeah. Fangio is an incredibly well-regarded defensive coach.

And yet when he left, like dolphins players were like posting party symbols on Twitter. Like that is that is in the range of possibilities as well here. I will say, I think the one thing people aren't really talking about is this is not as deep of a defense as it was last year or the year before. They lost guys like Doran Stromström. They lost Stefan Gilmore. And I don't know that they really solved the problem we saw from them in that game against the Packers, which is, I don't know if they have the linebackers. Eric Kendricks is a guy who's been a cap casualty each of the past two seasons. I know he knows Mike Zimmer's defense, but like, is that really going to solve their problems that we saw? last year? Is Marquis Bell going to play linebacker again? Is they going to go back to safety?

Like they could be really thin at linebacker if it does not work the way that I think they're hoping it works on paper right now. Yeah, you could easily throw Mazzie Smith on this list too. Anything about their run defense is just how he played last year? I mean, you need better play out of a guy you spent a first round pick on and somebody whose skill set was kind of vital to your team building plan. I mean, they brought him in because they needed a big body on the interior that defensive line and he just did not play well. And so there are going to be a couple other guys in that same mold, like first round picks over the last couple years that I think are hugely important

to the trajectory of their teams. And you can easily throw Mousie Smith onto that list. Yeah, I would throw Quay Walker for the, we mentioned the Packers, but Quay Walker, I think fits in there as well. Who's your next one? My next one. So I already have two players off my list, two people off my list because you pick them. Let's stick with, you want an offensive or a defensive?

offensive player. Let's go offensive player. Okay, I will throw out Dalton Kincaid, the tight end for the Buffalo Bills. Dalton Cicade was a secondary choice of mine. I did not have him on my final list, but I wanted to mention him. So I'm very glad that you brought this up. Shortlisted, because we're seeing the bills for the second year in a row try to emulate what the chiefs are doing. Last year, they drafted Kincaid. Okay, this makes total sense. We saw teams try to, you know, play more too high against the bills, try to take away the big plays, force Dresch Allen to be one-dimensional, force the past game to be kind of consistent and typical.

Okay, we're going to get Dalton Kincaid. We have both Kincaid and Dawson Knox. We're going to play 12 personnel. We are going to get bigger. We're going to force you to declare on defense, and we're going to take advantage of whatever the mismatches. Now, they did up their two-tied-un uses dramatically last year, but Dawson-Knox was also hurt for a stretch,

so they couldn't do it as much. Now, they're sort of approaching wide receiver with, hey, we'd rather have a bunch of decent guys, work out different personnel groupings, have more, get bigger, and try to work out things that way where they trade Stefan Diggs, who took a major step backwards last year by most of the numbers I've seen. They let Gabe Davis leave in free agency, and it's the, we'll get a bunch of guys and hope that one of them breaks that approach. They've drafted Keon Coleman, they signed Curtis Samuel, Marquezvoldes-Falde-Scanling,

Chase Claypool, Matt Collins, a lot of big physical receivers in there, which makes me think that they are going to try and get bigger and try to overpower teams who want to come out and match them with, you know, smaller personnel groupings given how often they pass the ball. But it feels like for all this to work, it worked for the chiefs because they had Travis Kelsey, a guy who could beat man coverage, who was a mismatch wherever you lined up and who had an innate feel for finding soft spots when things are playing zone. Can Dalton Kincaid be that guy for the bills? Because if he's not, I don't really see. how this passing game flourishes. It can be okay because I still have Josh Allen, but it's hard

to me to imagine them hitting the ceiling that we know what Josh Allen offense has unless Dalton Kincaid is playing like a superstar. One of the component pieces that feels like a prerequisite for elite offense in the NFL in 2024 is you need a high-level pass catcher to build your passing game through. You really need two, but if you look at the way that most elite teams in the NFL have been built over the last two, three years, there is a significant target share funneled to one or two players. You know, Tyree Kill, A.J. Brown, Jamar Chase, Travis Kelsey. There are exceptions to this.

You know, you look at the way that the Niners are built. They obviously have so many different weapons that they kind of do things a little bit differently. The way that the Lions have been, you know, Alman Ross & Brown is a huge target share in certain situations. But they move the ball around a little bit more. But for the most part, you need that guy to build it through. and Stefan Giggs was that for the bills for a long time. Is Dalton Kincaid that guy? And how does the receiving core ultimately shake out in terms of role, usage, all of that?

It's one of the central questions to me of the entire NFL season. Because I think that the defense is going to be good enough for Buffalo. I think that Josh Allen is, in my opinion, the second most valuable, impactful player in the NFL. And their running game, we've seen it. They did it. They made that transition. They were able to tap into that sort of offense and that style of offense. So what happens with the guys catching the ball?

It's one of the things I'm most curious about. And I think Dalton Kincaid lies at the center of all of that. Yeah. And like I said, I think if you're going to be bigger, if you're going to be a team that wants to dictate how defenses approach you, you have to have the people who can beat that. Like if you're, you know, I'm trying to think of a team that has no good tight ends. Who comes to mind? The Giants.

Yeah. The Giants are a good one. If the Giants met with 12 personnel, the opposing team does not care because they don't have anybody who's going to make you regret coming out in your base defense. The bills have to have that guy to make this work. And Kincaid, very obviously, has to be that guy. I guess my question for you, Mays, is like, what is the sort of season you need to see from Kincaid to feel like, okay, the bills were right to go with this approach as opposed to maybe selling out a little more to get a true number one wide receiver, if possible? just need to see like elite tight end production like in the same vein not necessarily what we've seen at the best of Travis Kelsey but you know a season that's akin to what Sam La Porta did last year or you know the diet versions of the best Mark Andrews seasons like a guy who is the most important pass catcher on your team as a tight end and justifies that sort of role and that sort of usage if that's the case I'm not going to throw a number on it because I don't think that's necessarily important

but being in that tier of players I almost feels necessary for the bills to get where they want to go this season. Do you, and this is like such a first take question, but here I am. Yeah, you're a TV star. You're used to this. I don't watch football anymore. Do you believe the bills are the best team in this division still? It's tough. I think my question. I think my answer is yes. And that's because I just put so much on having that quarterback. I think it's so important. I think he's on such a short list with guys who can dictate their team's success. You know, there aren't that many of them. There aren't that many where I just think his presence lifts them to that degree.

But I think he's on that list. I think it's him in like a handful of other guys. And we saw it late in the season. Even when Stefan Diggs wasn't as big a part of this offense, they were still able to reach such a terrifying year because they could run the ball and because he was there. So you have, even if there are question marks, I think there's a version of this offense where Kincaid takes a step that we're talking about. I think Cleo Shakir is a really interesting player. I really do. And Curtis Samuel, I think he's been, Washington was not a great situation over the last couple years.

You go to a place where there's an offensive coordinator who's familiar with him. You can make an argument that he had his best season in Carolina when Joe Brady was there. So I think that there is a version of this Bill's team that is still really scary on offense. And I think with better health look on defense and just kind of the built and earned trust we have in what they've done on that side of the ball, I think my answer to that is still yes, but there's a level that Miami's offense can reach consistently and that I feel comfortable with them reaching, that absolutely gives them an argument. And we already had the Aaron Rogers conversation. So it's not as easy of a yes as it would have been a year ago or two years ago, but I still think

that I have the most faith in them, yes. You know, I also want to point out, like, that that dude who was getting fired the second half of last year until they won the division, pretty good coach, by the way. Like, I feel like that also goes a long way in me having faith in the defense being just fine. Absolutely. They were top eight defense last year by EPA per play, and they lost like half their guys. So I understand people are looking at the guys they lost and the names that they lost, but those guys were mostly hurt or ineffective by the end of last year.

So I don't think that the personnel changes on defense are something to be really scared about. Are there question marks? Are they thrusting young players into big roles? Absolutely. But I think, again, they've earned our. trust on that side of the ball with the way that things have looked under McDermott since he got there and then specifically when he was calling plays last year. I have another pass catcher that was,

again, adjacent to the Dalton Kincaid conversation I wanted to have. I'm going with Jameson Williams. Yeah. I've talked a lot about James and Williams the past 24 hours and I feel like I almost don't want to belabor the point, but it's such a clear one for me. They did not do anything at those secondary pass catcher spots. The opposite. Opposite of nothing. They let people leave. They let Josh Reynolds leave. And I understand it. This team has done such a good job of being patient with their in-house talent. And they've proven me wrong several different times over the last couple years when I thought they should have shown more urgency in adding pieces at a couple position groups. But instead, they've let their in-house highly drafted often young players develop on their own timeline and has ultimately benefited them. Well, they need that from Jameson Williams this year. They need him to be a more central. part of the offense and a more varied part of the offense than he has been up to this point. I looked it up this morning. 50% of his routes last year, 5-0 were goes, posts, or corners.

And Mr. Winnsprin, Jameson Williams. And that's, it makes sense, right? Considering his skill set, but I think he needs to be more than just a vertical receiver in this offense for them to be the same type of group they were last year. Like, that's a very different type of workload than we got from Josh Reynolds. So if this team wants to continue to use a ton of 12 personnel and be the same sort of offense and attack teams in the same way they have over the last couple years, they need James and Williams to be more than just a goes post and corners runner. And if he's not, I don't know what this offense ultimately looks like. And I don't know if they can hit the ceiling that we have seen from them at times over the last couple years.

Well, there's two things that are that come into play for me. I think number one, you mentioned the routes he was running. He's the only guy they have who can do that. Like, like, maybe you can sub-in-Haleef Raymond that way. The yards per route run king, Caliph Raymond? Jameson Williams is the guy they drafted to be the person who wins at all three levels. The person who can be the deep threat, the person who can be the team, be the guy who scares teams into playing too deep so they can run the ball all they want and open up stuff for San Leporta all they, want underneath.

Open up stuff for Jemarke Gibbs against Lionbackers. Like, when, if you could pencil, if you could write in ink that James was going to be that guy and be the guy the Lions expected, every other puzzle piece in this offense fits perfectly. I would pick them to be the best offense in the week. Yes. And it would not be a crazy pick. But if you don't have that, Jameson Williams is not that guy, then the margin for error

increases, or decreases, I should say, increase and decrease are the same thing. decrease dramatically across the board. You have less space for your running game. You're relying more on an offensive line that is very good, but did lose Jenna Jackson. Broughton Kevin Zitler, I mean, all things considered a good replacement, but there's still going to be an adjustment period up front. And, you know, things could happen that didn't happen last year. Injuries could happen.

They could lose a Monrasse St. Brown and suddenly have a really concerning group of wide receivers. They could not, Jared Goff could struggle. They could run the ball less effectively. Like, like, if you pencil in Jameson Williams, B, you know, you know, and then. being right, you can get some of the other stuff wrong and still be just fine on offense. And this is a good problem, right, for an offense to have. They do a lot of other things right, but I think about the Niners adding Christian McCaffrey,

where it unlocked so much more for that offense. It got them so many more easy answers and helped them solve some of the harder problems. This kind of feels like it in reverse. Like the last problem left, this is a hard problem of who do we have who can terrify teams over the top. And if James Williams is that guy, and they've directed him to be that guy, and Dan Campbell has said he's the most improved player in our offense on our roster at OTAs, like, if he's that guy, there's not really a weak point on this offense. I think you're absolutely correct to say they would be the offense you would project to be the best offense in football. If you could flip the cards over today and know James has 1100 receiving guards this year. Among players who ran at least 300 routes last year, okay?

Here are guys who had more first downs per target than Josh Reynolds. You ready? 300 routes. Brandon Ayuk was number one. My guy, Khalil Shakir, was number two. Sure. Durham Smythe was actually number three, which is very funny. Why are you so skeptical of Durham Smyth?

I guess I'm underselling what your Durham Smyth is for the Dolphins offense. Wait, the only time Derrish Mait was getting the ball was when he was wide-ass open. So that doesn't surprise me at all. Justin Jefferson is five. Josh Reynolds was sixth. This is a first downs sport at this point with the way the defenses are playing. And he was as effective as almost any other receiver in the league per his opportunities at creating first downs. The guys below him, by the way, like right below him. This is a scary list when you're talking about hype guys that you want to buy into this year. Dantavian Wicks is next. And then Michael, Michael Wilson is one spot below him.

So this dangerous territory there. The point is, Josh Reynolds played a real role within this offense. And if you're going to have James be that other receiver when you're living in 12 personnel, he's going to need to be more than he has been in so many different ways for this offense to not only reach the heights that we've seen in the past, but maintain, stay one step ahead of where defenses think they're going, right? Like regression is real. You need to make sure that you're differentiating who you are each and every season.

And I think that James and Williams, in my opinion, is the most important part of that for a team that has real Super Bowl aspirations this year. Of course. And they should. Like there's no, they, they, they're, this is not a situation where you look at the lions and they're sort of ignoring some bigger fundamental problems to address this. Like, yes, we can talk about maybe the lions did not do as much as I would have liked to add past. rushers next to Aidan Hutchinson. Maybe I'm not a Marcus Davenport believer. Okay, that's fine. But clearly, they addressed their biggest weaknesses. They were already playing at a high level last year. Like, this is, to me, the biggest weakness they have left, especially on the

offensive side of the ball, structurally, schematically, and stylistically. So, I mean, so much is writing on this. Maybe they go out and they trade for someone if it's not, he's not that guy early in the season. I just, my only only, my only, concern is with other players like this, we've seen flashes. Have we really even seen flashes from James and Williams so far? Like, like, I know the first down rates there, but I think that's because he was really not, like he wasn't commanding targets. And I think that's my concern is, you know, for a guy who has athleticism, who has his skill set, who plays for a smart coordinator, a smart play caller, like, I would have liked to see him be capable of getting open and getting the ball more

often. That's just my one fear right now. I mean, that's a totally fair concern. And I looked up the numbers because I was curious about how much they were funneling him the ball when he was on the field. Among receivers with 20 targets last year, there were 118 of them. He was 66th in targets per route run. It was just below Elijah Moore just ahead of Rashad Bateman. That's a tough part for me. I just think he needs to be so much more than that for this team to be who they want to be this year. And it's not, I'm not saying it's impossible because the draft pedigrees there. I mean, you know, we know he, we know he, we know he can be good. It's just a question of, like, is it going to happen this year or not?

And in what way? Is he, in what way is he good? Is he more than just that vertical presence? Is he more than just taking the end around for a touchdown against the Niners? Because I think he needs to be. No question. But that was a pretty sweet play, though. Of course. And he gives you that. He's in a dynamic, explosive player. It's just a matter of what other nuances and what other refinement we see in other areas of his game. Now, let's get back to Cleef Raymond. He's nice. We have to admit. Kaleef Raymond, and this is another one of those where this is, it is truly a story of why teams are good and bad in the NFL and how you identify good and bad teams, especially on offense in the NFL.

Are you getting the most out of every single person who comes through your building? And the fact that this team and Ben Johnson have turned Kleefe Raymond into a very effective offensive NFL player, Cleef Raymond's role in Tennessee, God bless him. it was every single time they lined up in like 13 personnel in the shot zone the caliph raymond would be the only receiver on the field and they would throw a 60 yard bomb to caliph raymond like that's what he was the Justin Watson that's what he was in 2020 justin what the fact that he is so much more than that for this lion's team is such a testament to how good this staff is and how good they are at finding the right ways to deploy these people that's my you know who else you could say that about Josh Reynolds, the guy who they also got from Tennessee. It's so true. It's so, so true.

And again, that's one of the reasons that they deserve trust and the benefit of the doubt with some of these decisions because they've been so good at getting the best out of these guys. And also, they've been so good at scouting their own personnel outside of defensive back, which is that's been more of a mixed bag over the last couple years. But I think on offense, they've been so, so good at understanding. how to deploy these guys, what role is best for them, what the development plan should be like. And that's why I'm not betting against Jameson Williams. I just think that the outcome is hugely important. I will say some of that, I think, with the defense has been injuries. Sure.

That's totally fair. All right. Who is your next one? My next one. I will throw out there Jaredverse. I had Kobe Turner. There we go. We're on the same page here.

But you get the idea. There is this question of, okay, Aaron Donald is gone. And Aaron Donald creates easier matchups for the rest of the roster. He dictates what teams are going to do with their personnel. Like every broad decision, offensive coordinators have had to make about how they face the Rams. And every broad decision about how the Rams are going to line up and approach defense over the last decade has been about Aaron Donald. And now that is fundamentally changed. Like everything has to be different here. And so the question for me, and it sounds like for you as well, is, is there this guy who's

not Aaron Donald necessarily, but who does give offensive coordinator's concerns, who does give, you know, that's a lot of the ramps to kind of shape their defense around a player, because I think it has to be somebody, even if they're not playing at Aaron Donald's level. Yeah. And how the young past rush comes together, that's the question with this team for me. And so you could have picked anybody. I picked Turner just because I think there's a path to him being that guy. He had 50 pressures last year,

which was 15th among all interior defensive linemen, 17th on a rate basis. So this wasn't just a volume thing. And beyond the numbers, he passes the eye test. You watch him play. You see it. He's flexible. He's explosive. And you can, honestly, it was fun to watch him

trot out some of the same stuff Aaron Donald tries. He clearly benefits. He clearly benefited from playing with Donald for a year. So my question with Turner is, okay, you remove Donald from the equation. And I know that if you look at double team rates, Kobe Turner's are very high. He's playing knows a lot. And theoretically, there's one hand on him that shouldn't be at the start of the play. They're sliding Aaron Donald's way on almost every single play.

I think that some of those player tracking data numbers and what you guys do with pass rush win rate, there's some gray area there. No question. So as the plan for offenses shifts to him, what does that look like? But also, if you look at the way the Rams defense has been built, their defense was centered on Aaron Donald. That's who they're trying to create matchups for. So as Kobe Turner slides into that role and he becomes the guy that you're dictating matchups for, how much of that can he carry?

And if the answer is a lot and he becomes one of those interior defensive linemen that you can build your pass rush around, the likes of which we have seen a lot, the last three or four years. Like they're probably six, eight guys that fit that bill. And that's a real pathway to elite defense. Then I think that there's a way this Rams defense becomes an average or slightly above average unit if another other pieces fall into place. And when you combine that with what I expect from the offense, then again, similar

to the conversation around Green Bay, this team becomes pretty interesting. Right. And I think it's just a question of, is there that guy on the inside? Are they more focused on the outside? Does Jared verse become that guy quickly where, you know, it's more traditional where there is that edge rusher that teams are more concerned about? But, you know, like you said, I think you look at this defense, like you said, everything was about either creating an opportunity for an Aaron Donald one-on-one or taking advantage of the pressure, of the attention focused on Donald to get everybody else one-on-ones and then win that way. And we saw them win both ways in the Super Bowl. they came back in the second half playing the latter way where, okay, you're going to turn

down on side every single way. So we're going to have a five-man line. We're going to have three one-on-ones. We're going to overload you. And we're going to win that way. And that turn that game around. And I think what's compounding things here is they also lost Rahim Morris. And Chris Shula, I mean, he's not like a black box, but I think relative to the people they've brought in in the past to take over as DC, I am really. intrigued to see what that defense looks like. You could easily put Chris Shula on this list because that's exactly right. I mean, well, Staley was a completely unknown.

It was a complete unknown when they brought him in. But, but we knew he was going, we knew he came from the Fangio system. We knew it was going to be that kind of offense. I mean, this guy, Chris Shula was at John Carroll as well. So maybe that gives us a little bit of a hint. But you get the idea. Like I think with with Staley at least, we could maybe build a framework of okay. This is what it's most likely to be.

Yeah. And he's one of the biggest question marks for me. And this defense overall, you know, the young pass rushes. is a huge part of this, but how does the secondary fall into place? I think the moves that they made in the offseason makes sense to me because this team on a play-to-play basis defensively was okay last year. They gave up way too many explosives. There were way too many lapses.

And I think that defensive back personnel was a driving force behind that. So going out and getting a known quantity in Darius Williams, going out and getting a guy like Cam Curl, who is the nature of how safeties get paid in the NFL. They were not going to be valued that highly. but you need a baseline level of play from that position. And I think that Cam Curl is exactly the type of guy who gives it to you. You combine those guys with maybe what you get from Trey White in the second half of the season, and it starts to get pretty interesting.

So I think that A.E. Rams defensive linemen was going to make this list for me, no matter who it ended up being. And you saw they got better last year after they put John Johnson on the lineup. That was a real, like, you know, just having some kind of baseline level of competence and ability to avoid mistakes back there went a long way. And I think that is something they really approached on the whole this year with their secondary. Like it is, you know, they went for being probably the youngest secondary in the league where now, if everyone's healthy, they're going to be on the older side.

So I think that was really interesting to see how they sort of learned from maybe what went wrong, but what was really causing them problems the first half of last year. They got some flexibility too in depth. You mentioned Johnson. They just re-signed him this week, so he's going to be back. They drafted Cam Kinchins. You know, Russ East is somebody who played a variety of roles for them last year. And Quentin Lake is the same way.

So I just feel like they were going to be able to deploy those guys in a bunch of different ways on the back end. My bigger question now is probably how quickly the young pass rush comes together and what the ceiling for that group looks like in year one. Yeah, for sure. You have another one? Yeah. So the other, outside of Kobe Turner, again, kind of like a subsection of that, somebody I think you could have a very similar conversation about. for me it was Miles Murphy with the Bengals. I think it's pretty clear that the most important thing for the Bengals this offseason

was locking down the back end of the defense. Well, funny, funny you say that because one of my picks was fun, Bill. There you go. Perfect. Okay, so let's have this Bengals conversation. Because I think that you watched that team last year, they were just a mess on the back end. They were an absolute mess. They were trying to rely on Dax Hill and they brought in Nick Scott.

Now was going to be, okay, hopefully we can solidify this after, moving on from Von Bell and Jesse Bates and we keep everything else on the defense the same. That did not happen. But I actually have faith that they can do that with Von Bell and Gino Stone. My bigger question is when you look at this defense last year, they did not affect the quarterback well enough. The outside of Trey Hendrickson, they did not have a guy on that defense. It got more than 42 pressures.

And their second best pass rusher on a person at basis is now in Detroit. And Sheldon Rankins is solid. I think that they've done a good job of finding discount versions of players they've had to move on from. And I think that Rankins, even if his skill set is different than DJ readers, is not a bad consolation prize. But they need better play and they need more dynamic play out of their front. And if it's not going to be from the guy that you spent a first round pick on last year, I don't think it's going to be from Sam Hubbard, who also was not very good last year. So they need somebody among that group to take a step forward.

and I think Murphy is easily the guy that you can peg. That being said, the safeties are still a monstrous question, and I think Von Bell is a perfectly reasonable answer here. Well, I think what the reason I thought of Von Bell was because I think, okay, you know, what does Blue Anarumo does do really well? What do the Bengals do really well during that kind of two or three year peak where they were competing for titles that they didn't have last year? And it was Jesse Bates.

And I think it was in Von Bell as well, who was gone in Carolina for the year. but that sort of confidence you have on the back end with your secondary, especially at safety, where, you know, okay, if we dial up something exotic, if we want to pass routes off, if we want to be a defense that communicates really well, like we have the guys back there who can do it. And I think that really frees you up to be more exotic up front. I think the Chiefs and Steve Bagnolo had a lot of confidence in their defensive backs and their safeties last year, where they felt good about the idea of, okay, we can be more exotic, we can be more creative, We can show different fronts and drop out.

We can build, you know, sort of mismatched or lopsided, you know, post-snap coverages and trust that our safeties are going to get into the right spot every time and get there quickly while also masking what we want to do. And I think once they changed the safeties last year, and they had to for cap reasons, they had to make some cutbacks somewhere and prepared for it. Okay, you know, we're going to have Dax Hill. You know, we're going to be set at safety. You know, when it didn't work out in practice, I think it limited what, what Lou could

do. I think it limited what their ability to be exotic and creative up front. And I think that's going to hopefully this year, having more veterans back there, having more confidence in your ability to hold up when you do crazy stuff up front. I think that gives you now the opportunity to not rely as heavily on the front floor. It gives you, you know, sort of a little more flexibility in terms of not needing Sam Hubbard to be great, not needing Miles Bryant to be great, Miles Murphy to be great, not needing BJ Hill to be DJ Reader. I think having Miles Murphy to be great, I think having, you know, that ability to be more creative, to have a wider range of things you're willing to show pre-imposed snap on defense, that goes back to the safeties. And I am hoping,

for the Bengals perspective, that they are able to do this year because they are a very fun defense to watch when they have confidence in their back in. All of that is right. And I think that Von Bell quietly is the person who allowed them to do a lot of that stuff. Jesse Bates is an excellent player. And the season that Jesse Bates had in Atlanta last year is a total justification of anybody who's ever been bullish on Jesse Bates. But I really do think that over the last few seasons, Von Bell has quietly been the skeleton key for that defense. And he allowed them to kind of lean into that identity that they had when Lou was really cooking.

And I promised you to Lou that room, I was very, very happy to have Von Bell back. I can confidently say that, that he has been very happy to have Von Bell back in order to do some of that stuff. And the Daxil conversation is kind of an extension of the Miles Murphy one, because they had a plan. We're going to need to skimp on the amount of money we can pay our defensive players, and we're going to need to restock this thing with young, highly drafted players.

They've already taken an L on Daxil. We're in year three. He's already on a position change. They need to go out and re-sign safeties or sign safeties in a free agency in order to shore up outside of the defense. If Miles Murphy is another one of those, then we're headed in a troubling direction. If you keep missing on these, these highly drafted guys that were lynch pins to your, post-paying Joe Burrow plans, then the complexion of this team and what they are and our

expectations for them start to change. So I think that this is a very important season for them to start writing the ship on that side of the ball. And Miles Murphy and Von Bell are both huge pieces for that. Yeah. I mean, it seemed very clear that they were limited last year. And I mean, not a lot of holes in this team, if the secondary is right. I mean, I understand the concerns up front.

I think they're still very dependent on Trey Hendrickson, which has been, to my surprise, not a problem for them in years past. He's been phenomenal. But, like, the offensive line is okay. The running game is okay. I don't think you need to have me to tell you about the passing attack. Like, this is a complete team if the secondary is right. And I, like, I applaud them in a way.

Like, they clearly had a plan for, okay, when Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, DeHagans get expensive. Like, we're going to go position by position. And we're going to drop out. at this one year and we're going to have draft picks ready to replace those guys. But that has to work. If you don't draft those guys successfully, you can't make the same dips into significant free agency of the way you did in years past to solve those problems.

Talk about the running game. You're into like fantasy arbitrage. Which of the Bengals running backs are you betting on this year? I'm betting on both. Okay. That makes sense. I think that's a solid way to approach it, honestly. I think they can both have a role.

I think, I mean, Zach Moss, I've liked for the last couple years now, he was very, very good early in the season for the Colts. It wasn't as great as the year run along, and maybe he benefited from Anthony Richardson being there, but I think he can do everything you want a back to do. I think Chase Brown, my only concern is pass blocking, where they clearly did not trust him as a pass blocker last year, but I do think he has the upside to be a more explosive player, and I think that's a really fun player to have as you're running back too. But, I mean, this is not a team that's going to run the ball at time.

Like, they lean into the pass when Joe Burrow was healthy as they should. So I'm actually, as much as I want to talk about the running game, I'm really intrigued about the wide receiver three battle there. I think Burton gets it. You're not a Yoseva's truth. I just think that Burton's so talented. Ultimately, I think that ultimately is going to win out. We'll see what happens.

And obviously there's a reason that he fell in the draft. But if that does end up clicking in the place, and I think they're pretty confident that it will, then I think that offense, that's just another gear. You know, because Tyler Boyd was what he was over the last couple years. he's a very different player with a very different skill set than what your main burden is bringing to the table. No question.

Do you have one more? I, yeah, I do. It's a weird one. Like, I have to justify this one. It's a running back. And his name is Isaiah Pacheco. All right. Explain this one to me.

Which, yes, the chiefs have one back to back Super Bowls. They have been fine. But I think he has become a really essential player for that. offense. And I mean, if you've watched the Chiefs play, I don't think you need me to tell you how much better they look with Isaiah Pacheco on the field than Clyde Edwards-Alair or even Jared McKinnon, who is not there any longer. But you have, Pacheco has been really a neutralizer for them. You know, he's been, I think, one of the reasons why their shift to bigger personnel groupings has worked. And having a physical back, having a power back, having a guy who

you know, is going to run over nickelbacks who can catch the football and has had, I think, frankly, a lot more success than I would have expected as a receiver, more than Clyde Edwards-Layer, who came into the league as someone who was expected to be a really good receiving back. I think he's been really valuable for them in that role. And we know this is an offense where they're not going to run sneaks. They're not going to have Patrick Holmes on sneaks. So he's their, he is their short-yard-age guy. I mean, they have obviously plays where There were Patrick Mahomes on a naked on fourth down. So we know that is a possibility, but like between the tackles, he is their guy.

And if he were to get injured, if he were to not be the guy, I think you make that offense one-dimensional. And they are better one-dimensional than I think anyone else in league would be one-dimensional, but that still really limits them. And I think, you know, maybe because they've added so many pieces that receiver, maybe they do spread it out more of the shirt, maybe they are more of an 11 personnel team. Maybe they have more three, four wide sets. Maybe they're in empty more often this year than they have been in years past. But I think they've grown really successful and really comfortable with the idea that Pacheco gives, you know, defights of something else to think about.

And if he were not the guy there, there's, unless, like, I don't know, I'm really fascinated by Louis Rees-Amit. But I don't want to see him as the lead running back on the Chiefs as they're trying to win a third straight Super Bowl. Is this more about health and availability and presence to you, or is this a range of outcomes thing? Because it feels like I kind of know what Isaiah Pacheco is at this point. I don't know because, like, he was, at his best, he has been, to me, a top 10 NFL running back. And he gets a ton of touches for this team. And admittedly, some of that is because they are winning. But I talked about this a couple days ago.

he got 20 touches against the Raiders, 21 against their Packers, 15 against the Raiders, guys are coming back for an injury, 25 against the Bengals in Week 17, 25 against the Dolphins, 16 against the Bills in that game, 28 against the Ravens, and then 24 in the Super Bowl. Like, they clearly are devoting a significant portion of this offense to him in a way that Andy Reid does typically not with other running backs. And so- that's a structure of defenses thing, right? I mean, I think that that's a natural answer to the way the teams are playing against you. And it's honestly why I felt the offense was so frustrating at times last year, beyond the drops, which obviously were maddening.

They couldn't rely on the run game. The run game was not as good last year as it was the year before. And I think that you could put some of that on Pacheco, but it felt like the upfront. They were just more unsettled than they had been, even though the component parts were the same. That was what was so encouraging to me in the back half of the season and especially the playoffs is that it felt like that group up front started playing the way that we expect them to. Trace Smith, the way that he played against Miami, like, he just ass kicking.

Like, that type of play we have seen from him in the past. They were down to like their fourth string defensive linemen. I don't know, man. He was giving Christian Wilkins all he could stand. He was playing extremely well in that game. So if that group, when you would go left or right, Tuning, Creed, Trey Smith, and you get better play from day one from. Juan Taylor, we'll see what happens at left tackle.

I think the line can play up to snuff, then we get what we want to get out of Isaiah Pacheco. Maybe I'm overstating how little of a role he has in that or how volatile he's been as a player. But to me, it's more about every other component part of the running game than it is about him specifically. The only reason I say otherwise is I watched that same offensive line, that same rushing attack with Clyde Edwards-Alaire, and it was not the same.

That's the only reason I would say that. But you think that there is a chance that there's a downturn and play from Pacheco, and not just a diminishing? Sure, maybe a downturn and play from the broader running game. Okay. And that idea that if the chiefs don't have that running game working, then that makes them one-dimensional. And again, even though they're better one-dimensional than anyone else one-dimensional, that really limits the ceiling of their offense. All right. That's a weird one.

I'll give it to you, though. I was going to have, I also had a safety for a potential AFC content. tender that I guess is akin to your Von Bell choice. I went with Jalen Petrie. Interesting. I think that the Texans offense for me is all systems go. There are too many good players put in too many good positions for me to bet against them. Outside of injuries, it's hard for me to not see the Texans offense being very good this year.

Maybe not elite because I think there's still enough run game concerns. Joe Mixon being, he's. Joe Mixen, right? Like, he's going to get you 4.2 yards per carry no matter what you want out of him. And the offensive line is inevitably going to be healthier this year. So I do think the run game will be better no matter who's back there. I mean, this is a team that finished 15th in EPA per play last year with the bottom eight running game. If it's an average running game and we get what we think we're going to get or even close to it from the passing game,

this is probably going to be a top 10 offense. And I'm comfortable making that bet. the defense is more of a question to me. No question. I feel good about the moves they made up front. I think that is going to be a dynamic, which is really fun group to watch. I can't wait to watch the Texans defensive line every single week.

The secondary is where the answers still need to come for me. And I think the Petrie is a huge part of that. Highly drafted guy was really up and down last year. And you're one of a new system. You're one of a new role. If you can get more consistent play from a guy like that, And you can extend this to the rest of the secondary. It's almost like a Texas secondary conversation.

And you can find an answer at that other outside cornerback spot, which we'll see how that goes. Is it Camari Laster? Is it somebody else? That, to me, is going to go a long way to determining the ceiling for this team if the offense is as good as we expected to be. Yeah. I mean, I had Stingling as like a secondary one on my list because I don't think he's going to be bad. But the question is, is he going to be pretty good or is he going to be a superstar? And like you've seen, I think AJ Terrell is a good example.

Like he had that incredible breakout season, I think, in year two. And then since then, he's been okay, pretty good, but like not the same caliber of player. And for Stingley, I think if he's dominating the way he was at his best last year, I think that unlocks so much for what else you can do with your defense and your coverages. And I think Petrie is just another sort of reflection on that idea of like, okay, is the secondary going to be right? because it feels like so much of this team elsewhere is set and correct. Yeah, him playing from depth last year was a mixed back. You woke back in a watch.

I think it was the first Titans game. DeAndre Hopkins hit him with like a couple double moves for explosive plays. It's a new system. And I'm sure there's a lot of things bouncing around in his head. And when you go from year one to year two, you know, this is a guy who's going into his third season. There's a lot of things that, you know, can be solidified and kind of settle down for you over that stretch of time.

And if that happens for him, then you still have Jimmy Ward back there. If that group can be a strength, like a pronounced strength, then I think that it says a lot about what the ceiling for this Texas team can be. The last thing I'll ask you, there was a tone of skepticism in your voice when you asked me if I was really confident in the Texans offense being that good. Where does that come from? Contrarian. All right. Okay. All right.

If that's it, that's fine. No, no, no. I'm joking. There's to me a couple real concerns. one, and I guess maybe this is like they're both intertwined with another, but what does this offense look like? Because we saw last year it worked, but it was still a pretty run heavy offense, even though the running game was not effective. And that made CJ Stroud lives easier. They didn't have a ton of time where Nico Collins and Tank Dell were together and playing at a

high level. You know, like, like Del got hurt halfway through the year. Now you have to find digs to the mix. Like, on paper, this should be one of the five most passive attacks in football. But is that actually how they're going to run things? I'm skeptical. I don't know about that. When that happened, you think they're going to, you know about what? I think that there's credence to a plan where there is a complementary nature between your run game and your pass game. I agree, for sure. The Niners threw fewer passes than any other team in the NFL last year with the most effective passing game in the league. Sure. But that is. is a, they didn't have Stefan Diggs.

And Stefan Diggs is a little more vocal about complaining. All right, okay, all right. Downstream effects and how it affects personalities, maybe another consideration. But I think that there is a way for the ratio to be healthier than it was last year, where CJ Stroud isn't throwing 24 passes a game. You're not leaning as heavily into the run game while still getting the benefits of a team that plays in heavy personnel has a run game you have to account for,

and you can dictate defensive personnel that way. Yes. No, this isn't a binary thing. It's not pass or run. It is a mix, but the question is, how do they find that balance? And is that balance found immediately? I think to me, that could be a situation where it does take some time to find a balance they're happy with. Gets us back to the top of the conversation. I'm very, very excited to go chat with some people at Texans camp when they're in Cleveland early next month because I have a lot of these same questions. So excited about that, excited for the season to get going, and we're almost there. Bill Barnwell, thank you very much

for the time, sir. Where can people read, listen, see the stuff that you're doing? ESPN, I guess? I don't know. Go over there. Anything else coming up? It's just in a big offensive playmakers list, ranking the league's playmakers from 32 to 1. Do you know who number 32 was, Mayas? I'm sad that I haven't read it yet, but I plan on doing it. That's fine. bookmarked. 32 playmakers. Running back wide receiver tight end. Who and league average quarterback offensive line. Is it, is it the Patriots? No, they're 31. Who is it? It's the Los Angeles Chargers. Oh, yeah. That's right. That makes sense. Yes. I think that's fair. Simultaneously, I believe the Chargers are going to

make the playoffs this year, which is going to be for a, make for a great group of mentions for me in the Mastika. God. All right. Just again, that contrarianism, just trying it out. Any chance you get at this point. All right, buddy. You know me. Sincerely appreciate it. We will talk to you very soon. Thanks so much. All right, guys, that's all we got. We will be back a little bit later this week on Thursday and Friday. Please come back and check that out. Appreciate you all listening. We'll be back very soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.