The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The Super Bowl Champ will be one of these 10 teams

Episode Date: November 16, 2022

As Thanksgiving nears and we direct our attention to the playoff picture more and more, it's time to separate the wheat from the chaff. On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, we aren't interested in teams that are merely playoff contenders. We want the true Super Bowl contenders. Robert Mays and David Helman of Fox Sports identify the teams that realistically have it in them to win the Super Bowl on this episode of TAFS.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow David on Twitter:Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube4:27 Kansas City Chiefs9:00 Buffalo Bills15:00 Philadelphia Eagles22:45 San Francisco 49ers30:18 Baltimore Ravens33:51 Miami Dolphins40:12 Dallas Cowboys49:50 Minnesota Vikings59:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers64:00 Seattle Seahawks68:45 Cincinnati Bengals74:45 New York Giants and the teams currently in the playoffs that have no shot82:30 Los Angeles Chargers Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. To the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today is Wednesday, November 16th. Joining me today, a good friend, long-time friend, first-time guest on the podcast, Fox Television star, David Hellman. Dave, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing wonderful, Robert.

It's an honor, man. I'm not blowing smoke. You know I'm not blowing smoke. As somebody who uses the athletic football show as a daily, resource. See, now you're being silly. I'm thrilled to be here. Your actual technical job at Fox, you are the Cowboys

Reporter for Fox, correct? Yes. Yeah, I'm a little bit of a jack of all trades. Got some cowboys, we got some TV hot takes, whatever you need. I'm your man. And the TV hot takes are why I wanted to have you on this show, because I feel like this show and this format

and the discussion we're going to have lends to some, oh, really? Wow! You're going to do that, huh? Yeah, I'm going to email this over to my producers at Fox as soon as we're done. Be like, you guys, maybe we'll listen to this, get a couple segment ideas out of it. Because today we are talking about the teams we think can win the Super Bowl. And this is always an interesting exercise because the pool is always bigger than you probably think it should be. But when you start getting to chop teams or you start including teams, like, God, really?

Are they actually going to win the Super Bowl? But then you don't want to leave them off. It's a difficult exercise. And I've done this before the season in previous years. But I don't think I've ever done it at this stage of the season. One of the reasons we wanted to is that it does feel a little bit more wide open this year than it has in years past. So I do think this group of teams may be longer than it's been in previous years. I think there are probably going to be some surprises.

What we're going to do is we're going to go down the list, switch off until we get to a team or two that we disagree on or we don't think is going to win the Super Bowl. So we're going to start with the teams that we think are pretty obvious. We're going to talk about why they will and why they potentially won't. At the beginning, the why they will is pretty simple. So why don't you kick us off who is your first team that you think can win the Super Bowl in, I guess, 2023 technically. It's so nice of you to give me the first pick.

Really, if you get one pick, like there's one team that I'm really feeling really rock-solid about. And it's actually not to pat myself on the back, but it's the team I picked to win it before the season. And it's the Kansas City Chiefs. I mean, you just look at who they are, the way they're built. Obviously, they're not a perfect team. But I think it's, and we'll get to the Eagles, no doubt. But I think those are the two most complete teams. You add the fact that they've got Patrick Mahomes.

You add the fact that they've been through the playoffs. You know, AFC championship game every year since 2018. If I had to bet now, that's easily the team that I feel best about. And really, maybe the only team that I'm 100% confident can do it. It's not a hard one. They're second in almost every single offensive efficiency metric this season after the dolphins who've been on a ridiculous hot streak. We've seen them do it for years. Their offense hasn't really taken that much of a dip without Tyree Kill, which I think is a testament to.

how fucking good their quarterback is, how good their offensive play caller is, how good Travis Kelsey is. This isn't complicated. They have the guy who I think is the MVP of the league. He's playing at that sort of level. And when you have a top three offense with that sort of guy at the trigger, you could absolutely win the Super Bowl. If I was listing out the reasons I'd be skeptical about them, it would be twofold.

One, I do think that they can find some offensive lulls that are driven in part by new receiving options and a lack of scary receiving options. We'll see what the Cadarius Tony edition does for them over the long term. Just adding one more guy that has that sort of explosiveness and just overall juice to the offense, I think, is big. But we've seen them disappear for stretches because teams are challenging them. Teams are daring their receivers to beat them with the amount of man coverage that they're playing. And I do think that this group can get overtaken in that sort of game. And we've seen that happen a couple times so far this season.

The other side of it, the defense is eh? You know, it's fine. Yeah. And I do think Mitch said this on Sunday. I completely agree with him. The lack of pass rush options outside of Chris Jones is concerning. Carl Loftus hasn't given them that much. You know, Frank Clark, obviously, after a couple of nice moments at the beginning,

has not been very good for them in recent years. It's the reason he took a pay cut this year. I like the back end. I think that they played very well. I think they're very well coached. That's been a consistent theme for them over the last several years. But the lack of pass rush and just their offense kind of disappearing for stretches because we're not totally scared.

of the receiving options. Those are the two things I would probably say. Do you put any weight? I mean, I agree with with pretty much everything you just said. I do. I mean, I'm not going to overreact to a game against Jacksonville, but just going back and watching some of that, I was like, oh yeah, the Cadarius Tony thing is probably going to be very nice. Just to have a guy that is capable of getting you chunk plays as a receiver and as a runner. He's insanely talented. Like, there's no denying that. There's no debate about

that. So just dropping him in here is absolutely a positive for the chiefs. This is one of those moments where when you have this sort of equity, that sort of locker room, that sort of stability, you can take a risk on a guy like Cadarius, Johnny, because you're not worried about what it's going to do to where you're going. I understand the Giants wanted to get rid of him at this stage of where they are as a regime, what they're trying to build there, culture-wise, all that stuff. With the chiefs, it's like, why not roll the dice in a third-round pick for Cadarius Tony, who gets? gives a shit.

The longer I do this, too, I mean, third round picks are valuable. Don't get me wrong. But, like, it's the Chiefs. It's going to be a late third round pick. Like, you're talking about a pick somewhere in the 80s or 90s, probably. Who cares? I mean, I saw firsthand Tony's coming out party was against the Cowboys last year. It certainly was there.

And I was just like, this guy's unreal, man. So, I mean, even the threat of a guy that can do that type of. stuff, I think will open things up for them even more than it already has. And yeah, like I said, I put a big premium on just the trust factor. The chiefs have been on that stage. They've got a lot of guys who have done it. And you think about how wide open the NFL is this year, other than like Kansas City, I guess we'll throw in Buffalo as well. You know, the Packers don't look like a team that's going to make the playoffs. Like there aren't that many teams that have been through the grind of playoff football. A lot of these Super Bowl teams we're going to talk about haven't done this before.

So I put a big, I put a big premium on the, on the Chiefs not being shy or intimidated by that stage. So the team that I'll list off second has been through the playoff ground a little bit. They've just never gotten there. And that's, it's still the Buffalo Bills. I understand it's been a rough couple weeks, but it's not hard to argue why they'll win the Super Bowl. They're still arguably top to bottom, the best team in the NFL. They have a cyborg quarter. who for stretches can look like the best player in the entire league. This is not difficult for me. I still think that at their best, when they're healthy, when they're right, they can go up toe to toe with anybody. They just beat the Chiefs a couple weeks ago. So Buffalo is number two

for me. And I think that honestly, there's still a little bit of a tier drop after those two teams, in my opinion. I've been saying that all year. I do a show with Lashon McCoy. He's been very upset all season that I'm very reluctant to put the Eagles on the Bill and Bills and Chiefs level, but I just am. I'm sorry. Maybe it's because I've covered the Cowboys for so long, but yeah, I agree. And honestly, you know, if people want to hop off the bandwagon because Josh Allen's been making some crazy throws the last three weeks, that's fine. It doesn't bother me. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit, but specifically against the Packers a couple

weeks ago, I was like, is Josh Allen bored? Is that why he's doing this stuff? You know, is he just not challenged enough by playing smart, efficient football? Like, he's out here trying trick shots and doing stuff he doesn't need to do. So I think, you know, he'll snap out of it. I'm really not worried about it. And I'm with you. This happens, though. Like, this happens for most teams.

Most teams have a two, three game lull offensively during a season where you have to work through some stuff. The Rams had it last year when they won the Super Bowl. The Bills had it last year in the middle of their season when they started rolling out some of the more of that two back stuff. It's like, all right, well, what if we start tweaking this, playing with some more heavy personnel because teams are just sitting back there with, you know, playing a lot of cover two. What can we do to make them pay for that? This usually happens. It's why I'm so interested in Miami because we haven't seen that happen to them yet and how they work through that, which we'll get to. But we've seen that with the bills. And I just think that

having that experience, having those examples of like the quarterback playing incredibly well in those big moments. It's hard for me to put the Eagles on that plane still a this point because I have that divisional game so burned into my mind. If the Eagles get into that sort of game with the Chiefs and the Bills, can they keep up, I think is a reasonable question. I know that the Bills can't. So I still think that it's those two and then it's everybody else. Completely agreed.

And I'll just move forward from that. I mean, yeah, I think it. Outside of the Bills, outside of the Josh Allen stuff, what else would you be concerned about with the bills before we move on? I mean, it's boring to say health, but they've dealt with a lot of that stuff. But I think that can actually be a benefit for them is like we haven't completely seen their final form. Like Tredavius White has yet to play this season. Am I right about that? Yes.

Yeah. So you got one of the better cornerbacks in football that you can still hopefully add to your defense. Obviously they've been banged up at the safety position. So again, the offense hasn't been as a. amazing as we've been used to the last three weeks. And I'm like, okay, well, the defense is still coming. Like, the defense still has room for improvement. And the best defense in the league, by the way. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, like you can make this better. I guess if we're getting, if we're picking nits, then maybe you worry about the running game going away. But when you have, A, when you

have Josh Allen as a quarterback, but also his ability to run, I just, I think that's who they are. It's probably not who they want to be forever. Like at some point, you don't want Josh Allen doing that stuff. Like, I saw it firsthand with Dak Prescott. I've covered the Cowboys for 10 years before I started doing TV. And thankfully, the Cowboys at least occasionally remember that his running ability is useful. But, you know, you break your ankle.

It kind of changes your mind about how often you want your quarterback being susceptible to those types of shots. So I don't think they want Josh Allen doing that for. forever. But right now in this season, the way that they're built, I'm fine with it. And I think that's a good thing to have in your back pocket. So it's not terribly concerning. The offensive line gives me pause. It's just not a good group. It wasn't a good group when they started the season. And if they have to get in, we're down by 10. It's the fourth quarter. You know, we're straight traditional dropback situations. Like how is Spencer Brown and Ryan Bates and Roger Saffold at this stage of

his career going to hold up. I think we saw that a little bit against Minnesota, where Minnesota's pastoral is just better than the bill's offensive line. And if you're going to lose or have a disadvantage in that area, that matters, come playoff time. Like, let's say they play the Eagles in the postseason and they have to deal with the Eagles front in those sorts of moments. That's a mismatch to me.

And that would be a little bit worried about that. I also think that they're just having the hiccups that they're having offensively. They've worked through that in the past. Brian Dable's not there anymore. Like the guys who are in charge of that offense, I think that there's less inherent trust and their ability to just like they'll figure it out by the end they'll have the form they need to to win the Super Bowl i still think they can get there but it's just one more unknown variable thrown into the mix yeah that's that's a really good point and honestly it's so i struggle with the

impact that like play callers have because it's it's it's so hard for us to see you know totally we'll never we'll never be in those meetings we don't get to be part of those conversations so it's hard to quantify that but But, and especially, like, seeing what Brian Dable is doing in New York with what he has, which I'm sure, you know, we'll talk about the Giants at some point. But, like, it just emphasizes what a good coach he is, that he has such a highly functioning offense there. So, yeah, like, there's no doubt that they have to miss that to some degree. Who's your next one?

I'll stick with the easy. I mean, I think there's three easy ones. And so the third one would be Philly. I do agree with you that they're little. They're just a slight step below. But I do think it's funny. I'm sure, you know, I'm going to go on speak today and we're going to talk about what's wrong with the Eagles. Like, if that's your first loss, I'm okay with that.

Yeah, like, maybe you'd prefer to lose to a better team than the commanders. But, like, I was looking at it last night, and I was like, okay, they have four turnovers. And Washington ran this, like, ball control offense to a, like, you can't run it better than that. like they had they had 21 first downs and converted half of them uh the degree to which they were able to keep philly off the field is almost comical and and and you know i saw 12 of 21 on third down it's incredible it's incredible like to it's incredible that they were even able to get to that many third downs like that's how shaky their offenses that they're not converting some more of those on first and second down um they had 25 first downs in the game okay 21 of them happened over the course of

the game with that weren't penalties So 12 of their 21 first downs in the game that the offense converted came on third down. If that's the first game you're going to lose, you're probably going to be all right. You could play that game 100 times, and it wouldn't play out that. It would play out that way one time. Like, I'm not worried about it. And I saw, you know, people on Twitter were like, oh, this Philly Run defense, Mrs. Jordan Davis, they're getting gashed. Washington needed 50 carries to get to 150 yards.

Like, they're long for the night was 11 yards. It's not like they were getting run over. Washington just did a miraculous job of staying on the field. Honestly, it was amazing to watch. But as far as losses go, I'm not looking at that loss. Like, oh, wow, the Eagles have been exposed. I'm just like, yeah, you had some freak turnovers. Like, Jalen Hertz gets picked off on an absolute dime.

Like, that ball went through AJ Brown's hands. That would have set them up in the red zone. Had another long completion that would have set them up in the red zone that turns into a fumble. So it was just that kind of night for Philly. I think if they're, I mean, they are right up there in terms of just having their roster is so complete. Like I love their defense.

They've got six, seven guys on the front. I think I actually heard you and Nate talk about this a while ago of like maybe there's, there's not a pass rusher that absolutely terrifies you in the mold of like a Von Miller or a Micah Parsons. But they've got like four guys that can do it. it. So, like, that's a decent trade-off. I love their secondary. Their offensive line is amazing. And then for me, this is unfair, and I acknowledge that. I would vote for Jalen Hertz right now for MVP if I had a vote. And that's not to say that he's better than Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen,

but I know who Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are. I came into the season saying those teams will go as their quarterbacks go. Those are the best two quarterbacks in the league. If Jalen Hertz isn't amazing, then this Philly team is probably trading wins and losses. Like maybe they're six and four right now. Maybe they look, you know, they look good but flawed. But Jalen Hertz is just taking them to a level where I'm like, okay, like if this guy can can hit throws consistently and not make mistakes, which he never does, like what? That was his fourth turnover of the year last night. And it's almost Thanksgiving. Yeah, I mean, if he plays that way, that, I mean, that's the difference between Philly being like, yeah, they're pretty good.

And like, oh, this team could win the Super Bowl. And so, I mean, I absolutely think they have that caliber. I've been impressed by their ability to win these games in different ways, depending on what the game calls for and what they need to be offensively. If they need to run it, they have the ability to run it. If they need to run a bunch of screens and deal with the Blitz, they've shown an ability to do that. I'm still, just again, talking about the highest levels of this,

if they have to play a game that looks like the divisional game with the Eagles or the Bills and the Chiefs last year, what does Jalen Hertz look like in those moments? That's still just an unknown. I mean, this is very new. I think it's important to remember that stuff when we have these conversations. Jalen, it's, we're 10 weeks into the season. The last time we saw Jalen Hertz in 2021,

they were unraveling against the Bucks. And they're clearly much better now. He has improved. But we have 10 games of this version of Jalen Hertz and the Eagles offense. That's not a lot of games. they've been very good. I've been very impressed with them. I do think that he's taken a step.

But I think it's important to remember the backlog of examples and proof that we have with these other guys that we just don't have with teams like the Eagles, with teams like the dolphins. And I always try to keep that in the back of my mind. So I think that's one of the reasons that maybe they won't do it. But I am very impressed with what they've been so far this year. They're my third team as well. I will say the thing for Philly. And we saw a little bit of it last night. A lot of it was turnover driven, which I think that changes it a little bit.

But what I keep saying is it just seems like Philly hasn't had to go off script a whole lot this year. Yes. The games have – Yeah, the games go according to their game plan. They set the tone. They set the pace. They are usually ahead in the second half and just kind of can grind the game out. So I do want to see them play a team that they can't control so well.

Yeah, again, I mean, if you get into a track. track meet with somebody like a Josh Allen. Obviously, I understand that that would happen in the Super Bowl. But I would just like to see that. And unfortunately, for the Eagles, like, the Eagles would probably like to be tested like that as well. Angie Brown said he was happy they lost last night. Right.

Yeah. I mean, I think they need to get a better accounting of themselves. But, like, you look at their schedule, you know, maybe Green Bay. We'll see if Green Bay is actually turning a corner or if that was just peak Cowboys behavior the other day. I don't really know what to make of that, but there's not a whole lot of opportunities. Like maybe Green Bay, Tennessee is a good team, but I don't know, especially on offense, I don't know if they can keep pace with Philly. That track me thing probably isn't going to happen, but Tennessee's defense will give them a proper challenge. Having to work through what Tennessee is on defense, they're going to give you a very well-constructed plan that just gives you a headache all afterdo.

So that is a good test even if they're not going to get to attract me with you. So that's definitely one that I'm excited about watching. Yeah, I think I'll have a better opinion of the Eagles once they've had a chance to play a few more good teams. But, I mean, from what we've seen so far, and again, you've got to remember, I mean, if we're just talking about getting to the Super Bowl, again, the Chiefs and the Bills are not the Eagles problem. So I don't think there's a whole lot of teams in the NFC that can present a better challenge than they can figure out. All right. Who's your next one? Because this is when it gets interesting.

Oh, boy. All right. My next team after Philly. Oh. Okay. I don't want to. This is a fascinating question because who you put a fourth in some sort of makeshift power rankings, I honestly think says more about you than it does about. the teams right now. That's a really good point. And that's why I'm kind of like I'm biting my

lip deciding what I want to say. Because I mean, there's two teams here. And I, oh, I hate what I'm about to say. I'm going to say San Francisco because, and again, like, I hate myself because, like, the evidence, the evidence isn't there. Like, at least not yet. Like, we know they have all this talent, all that good stuff. We haven't seen it this season. But, again, I put a crazy premium on being there and doing that, and we know we can accomplish this type of stuff. And you can't argue against the Niners. So when I look at my other options,

I think they are the best team that I trust to handle that type of stuff. I think they're constructed for playoff football. We saw it firsthand last year. We saw them do it. I just think they're so multiple in terms of the way that they can win, games. Again, you talk about like adapting for the opponent. We know they can rush the quarterback, which is everything. So yeah, like, I feel bad because their body of work so far doesn't suggest that they should be this high on the list. But with half the season still to play, I don't have a problem

betting on them to pull themselves together. They are very likely going to make the playoffs. You look at every single playoff odds thing. I mean, with the way that the second tier of the NFC looks like, they're still probably in the long run win the NFC West. And we just talked about how we don't have a lot of faith in the other teams in the NFC to give the Eagles a really good run. Why not the Niners? And I think that was their thought process behind making a deal like the Christian McAfri trade.

It's like, this is it. This season is wide open. It's similar to probably how the Rams felt last year. I do think that the Rams offense was this stage of the year probably last year. They were number one in dropback EPA would be. be in my assumption. They were one of the best offenses in the league already at this stage last season. But I think the Niners are probably looking at the landscape and saying, we absolutely can do this. And I tend to agree with them. Because if you're looking at all the other teams in the

NFC, outside of Philly, what NFC offense do you feel better about than the Niners with the weaponry that they now have in place? Yeah, I don't, I mean, I don't think there is one. And again, And with the talent they have on hand and the experience that they have playing and winning those types of games, I just, I don't think there's a team in the NFC that they should be intimidated by at all. So yeah, like I said, I'll repeat myself. But, you know, it's funny how this is, it's an evaluation of what we've seen, but it's also a projection of what to come. And I just, I have, I have no problem. banking on like the Niners haven't played their best football yet at all and and yeah i mean it's it's a winnable division even with seattle playing as well if they've played i just yeah i like

i'm literally looking at the nFC standings right now and and like even i mean i would say philly's a better team than san francisco based on what we've seen so far but even that i'm like if those two teams played in the playoffs i wouldn't have a problem rolling with san francisco just knowing that the guys that they have on hand. So yeah, like I said, I kind of hate myself, but I feel pretty good about their prospects in the second half. They're firmly on the list to me. However, you want to stack up teams four through 10. They're firmly on the list to me. So my concerns about them, the quarterback. I mean, if they really need him to carry a game for them, I think that we've seen he absolutely has a ceiling. There's a reason they were trying

to move on from him, even if he's more than capable of piloting the eighth best passing offense in the league, which he seems to do every single year when he's healthy. That's number one. The offensive line is still a concern. This team is 23rd in rushing DVOA this season. Having Eli Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey back will hopefully help that. I still don't think they're very good up front. And again, if they have to get in like traditional dropback situations against a team with a real pass rush,

I worry about how that group is going to hold up. And then defensive fragility. You know, this is going to be a consistent theme with some of the teams that we're talking about. Defense is immensely fragile. If you're saying we're going to ride a top five defense to the Super Bowl, you need a lot of stuff to go your way. And health is the biggest part of that. And it doesn't take a crazy rash of injuries to start affecting that. It's one, two guys.

If they lost Traverius Ward for any stretch of time, they've already been without Eric Armstead for a huge chunk of this season. And it has affected their pass rush. Javon Kinlaw hasn't played very much. We have this understanding of their defense is this top to bottom terrifying unit full of like crazy banshees. But you remove one or two pieces from that and it starts to unwind just a little bit. So those are the concerns that I would have, but I absolutely think that they belong on this list. I said this on Sunday night. I think Brandon I, Uke is like one of the 12 best receivers in the league.

And he's like the fifth best skill position player on the Niners. It's absolutely insane. So when you have that sort of group, like you absolutely can go on a run and win. a Super Bowl. I've spent a lot of time like poor Brandon Ayuk would be he would be a star for pretty much any other team in the league but in San Francisco he's he's like the only guy that's not an all pro and that's like a knock against him for some reason. Sorry Brandon. You're a good football player man. All right. Next one. So you had the Niners. I think it's pretty telling that this is the team I had fourth. I have the Ravens. Oh!

Okay, see, my choice was, it was a different team I was thinking of. So I want to hear this, actually. If you could put the Ravens 10th on your list, and I'd be like, all right, I get it. You look at, let's start with why they won't then, okay? Just the pessimism about the Ravens. The Ravens best outside receiver is who? Devon Duvonne. Yeah.

That's concerning. I, like, I, and look, I love Lamar Jackson. I love him. This is, and the Ravens have such a pedigree, like Robert, where is the juice? Like, where is the production coming from other than like Lamar, go figure it out? Like where, who is helping him? Undeniably concerning. With Rashad Bayman out for the year, I'm genuinely worried about that. If they have to have it on any sort of like third and eight outside of Mark Andrews, what are you doing? That is concerning to me. But I still think

that the overall recipe on offense, they have the most efficient running game in the league so far this year, which Lamar is a huge part of, they've been insanely efficient throwing the ball. They're third in passing DVOA this season with no receivers. And I understand that that changes when things get a little bit tighter in the playoffs, and I would be worried about that. But I still think that with the offensive line, getting healthier now with Stanley back, the way they've been able to run the ball, getting Gus Edwards back eventually, when Mark Andrews does return from injury, like, I still think that if this team catches you

flush offensively, they can still jump on a lot. of people. I still think they're dangerous even if we're worried about the past catching options. I don't, I mean, I don't like to rule them out. Are they not on your list? No, no, no, they're definitely on my list. Okay, all right. I was just curious. No, no, they're on my list, but like, I just, and, and, like, I, like, I get, I get your point. And on top of that, like, their pass rush is coming on. Like, how, like, how long- That's the thing is that the defense is coming? How long are Justin Houston and Clayas Campbell going to play, honestly? Like, are these,

These guys are going to be getting like eight and ten sacks as 40-year-olds because, I mean, Clay is Campbell especially is like getting close to that number, I feel like. He's like 36. So that's why I'm excited about them because I know that the offense is going to have limitations, but the defense is coming. You look at the injuries that they had early in the season. Marcus Peters missed the first game of the year. They've been dealing with some injuries at corner. They've had, you know, Justin Houston missed three games in the middle of the season. Marcus Williams has missed the last four games. He's going to be back at some point in December.

They just traded for Roquan Smith. David Ajabo is now back in the mix for them. I don't know what you can reasonably expect from him, but you just throw him as one more guy into that front where they already have a ton of dudes. And I think that Mike McDonald is figuring it out. Like they're 11th in passing DVOA on defense right now. After some really rough games at the start of the season.

It's a really new scheme. You had a bunch of guys filtering in and out of it. And now you drop Roquan into the middle of that. that. He allows Patrick Queen to be a true version of himself. You have a pass rush that's doing a lot of damage in weird, crazy ways. I like what they're doing on the back end. I don't think that they're the best at any one thing, but you look at the second tier of teams in the AFC. Who's better than the Ravens? Outside. If you're going beyond that, Bill's Chief's tier, who is at the top of that tear if it's not Baltimore for you.

Miami. That was going to be my... If I hadn't said San Francisco, I would have said Miami. And I mean, honestly... So let's do it. So let's do it. Because it was between them and the Ravens for me for the team that I would say after that top three.

I just, I mean... And again, like, honestly, you make a compelling case for the Ravens. I mean, what's more important in the playoffs than running the ball well and rushing the passer or playing defense well? I mean, that can serve you very, very, very. well, but like, maybe I just get enamored with the bells and whistles, but like, the dolphins are just so impressive to watch. It's okay to get enamored with the bells and whistles.

Their bells and whistles are fucking awesome. Yeah, especially when it works that well. My favorite thing, you know, I was up at Lambo for Cowboys Packers on Sunday, so like I'm catching up on all of this after the fact, like watching games here and there, looking at box scores. And I just, I opened the Miami game against Cleveland. I'm like, holy shit. They ran for 200 yards in addition to what we already know they can do.

Of course, Mike McDaniel goes and gets Jeff Wilson and just plugs him right in there. And it's like, okay, so now we're talking about the dolphins. And I'm going to not overreact to beating the Browns. I know how bad they are on defense. But like, if they can run the ball as effectively as what we've gotten used to when Mike McDaniel was coaching the Niners, on top of what we've seen from the passing offense, I don't think there are that many teams that can keep up with that. Even whatever concerns you might have on defense,

like how many teams can hold the dolphins below, I don't know, 27, 28 points? I don't think there are that many teams that can do that. And then how many teams do you reliably trust to score that many points? I mean, the Ravens Dolphins game way back in September was, was weird, but like we already saw the dolphins outpaced the Ravens. Like, Lamar Jackson played the game of his life against Miami, like one of his best games. And it wasn't enough to beat that offense.

So I feel perfectly confident riding with the amount of talent that they have. The only reason, I would have picked Miami over San Francisco. The only reason I didn't is, again, I put a big premium on knowing what you're capable of in the playoffs. I've seen the Niners do it. They have a core of players that have been through that. Whereas, you know, outside of Tyreek Hill, and I guess Jeff Wilson now, like there aren't a lot of guys in Miami that are used to that. But I'm so impressed with what they've been doing this season.

Yeah, honestly, this isn't a ranking of teams for me. This is just like how it came into my brain. The fact that the Ravens did first is probably just because I'm used to the Ravens being part of this conversation. I think right now I would feel better about the tournament. offense winning the Super Bowl and the Ravens because I agree with you and everything you said about their offense. The offense is just legit. It's just the best offense in the league right now. The infrastructure, the talent, the way the quarterback is playing, it's all coming together from

so many different angles to create this system and final result that is a real pain in the ass to deal with. The way that the offense is built, the options that they give you, all the different ways that they can attack you, the pure amount of speed that they have and the space that it creates, the quarterback's ability to manipulate and attack that space, it's awesome to watch. So I'm with you 100%. And I think that the two things I would say about the dolphins that would make me worried with 10 weeks into this on offense. And that's still very, very early.

It's very early. I have no reason to think that they can't work through whatever blips are going to come. But everything that you've said about the teams that have been there before and the teams that we've seen do this, we just haven't seen the dolphins do it. And that's not, it's not their fault. Like, they can't control that. But I still, that's in the back of my mind. We're 10 weeks into this offense.

What does it look like over 20 weeks when they start playing some really good defenses? Because over the last three weeks, they played the Lions, they played the Bears, and they played the Browns. And all of those teams are not good defensively. So I think they'll be fine. But that's just something in the back of my mind. And then the last one is, are the defensive struggles just too much for them to overcome in big moments? The chub trade potentially gives them a really good. good front four and it gives them an answer, you know, on defense to some of the problems that

they've had. But those are the two things that would be in the back of my mind. I think the offense will be absolutely fine, but that still is just one thing that I have to see it from them. Yeah, I agree. And I mean, you know, we were joking earlier. Like, it's, we can, we can definitely be prisoners of the moment a little bit, you know, the bills or people are quote unquote down on the bills right now. Well, we'll see. I mean, what? I'm looking at their schedule right now. I mean, when they're done annihilating Houston this week. The dolphins go on the road three straight weeks, Niners, chargers, bills, all on the road. So if we're still as impressed as we are with their offense after that, then that that'll be incredibly impressive. I mean, that's a huge opportunity

for them to really, because I feel like in the national consciousness, I think people acknowledge that the dolphins are good, but like nobody, nobody lumps things. the Dolphins in with the Bills and the Chiefs and the Eagles when you're talking about like the league's elite. At least it doesn't seem that way to me. But they, I think, have a chance to change that narrative here over the next three or four weeks. I cannot wait to see that stretch of games and what they do and what they have to work through and with a plan that defenses have for them. I don't love the Chargers. We'll talk about the Chargers a little bit later. I think the Chargers in a one game scenario can unleash a cool defensive plan that you're going to have to

work through. I think that's what happening in San Francisco on Sunday night. So that stretch, I'm very curious to see what the dolphins look like on the other side of that. All right, I'm next. Here we go. We had to do it. It's getting, yeah, now I'm getting anxious. Okay. Well, we had to do this eventually, all right?

I have a feeling I know what you're going to say. I have the Cowboys. Like, the Cowboys absolutely can win the Super Bowl. Can they? Yes. Can they? They absolutely can. Don't let your closeness to the situation kind of alter your thinking and how to

you view this. The Cowboys definitely can win the Super Bowl. Robert, what if I told you, what if I told you in a year prior to 2016, yes, the Cubs can win the World Series? Like, I mean, I know, it's not, it's not a hundred years. I get that, but it's the same sort of like PTSD, where you're just like, can they? Like, I'm too close to it. The universe is, no, I don't know, man. You're way too close to it, all right? This is an elite defense whenever. everyone is right. We can get to whether that's a possibility for them over the rest of the season, but we've seen them play at an elite level on defense. And they're like a borderline top 10 offense this season with Dak missing most of the year. I understand that they beat up on the

lions and the bears and it wasn't, it didn't look as good against Green Bay. But I still think that top to bottom, the offense has a chance to be very good. And if they do end up adding an Odell Beckham Jr. to the mix here, and they have one more pass-catching option to go along with an elite running game, a quarterback that I still think is capable of playing at an extremely high level. We saw what C.D. Lamb can do on Sunday. I think the best version of this Cowboys team absolutely can win three playoff games and eventually get to a Super Bowl. In a vacuum, I mean, I'm kidding a little bit. I agree with everything you just said. I mean, again, I think they're built for this type of stuff. And it's funny, the Cowboys got

bullied, obviously, last year in the playoffs. I mean, just, I know they lost the game by six points, but San Francisco just beat the hell out of them. And I think Mike McCarthy has put such a premium on getting bigger and tougher. Like, they're drafting these massive guys,

these big bodies that can bang in the trenches. And so I think they're built to withstand that type of stuff. My thing is, well, A, consistency for me. And we, I think you can call it trend, even with the time that Dax missed.

You're right. They've got an elite run game. They've got a serviceable offensive line. I think it'll get better if Tyron Smith can return in a timely fashion. Especially in pass protection. That's the question. They're grinding people down in the run game. But again,

when it's third and eight, you drop Tyron Smith back into that, you're a much better offensive line and he's healthy. It's very fun to think that they could plug Tyron Smith in at left tackle and move Tyler Smith to left guard. Now, I mean, if they can do that, they're going to mow people down in the run game on top of having a top-tier pass protector at left tackle. But the consistency, it's funny that I'm saying this.

Like, Sunday against Green Bay, statistically, is probably C.D. Lamb's best game of his career, or certainly one of them. But at the same time, you get these inconsistent mistakes from him when it comes to communication in the route running. You know, is he in the right place? Is he making his break at the right time? Is he catching every ball? Like even against Green Bay, he had a drop. And then you got to put some of it on DAC as well. Like, I keep calling him heat checks.

Like, Dak is so confident that it burns him. He did it against Green Bay. He did it against Chicago. He did it all the way back in week one against Tampa. He's got a fight against that instinct that, like, I can make that throw. because 50% of the time he's wrong. And that hurts you. That hurts you in the playoffs.

So that's troubling. Like, I mean, when the offense is clicking and doing its thing, it's very fun to watch, especially, like, from an efficiency standpoint. Like, the way that everything builds off the run, I love it. They are not consistent. And then on defense, Micah Parsons talked about it after the Packer game. They got, I mean, they got to do something. about defending the run.

That team's not winning any games in the playoffs if they're allowing 200 yards on the ground on a consistent basis. I mean, over the last month, they're basically allowing an average of 200 yards a game. The bears did it to them. Obviously, the bears have been doing it to everybody, but the lions even had a nice day on the ground against them. Obviously, the Packers did.

And, you know, it doesn't matter how well you rush the passer if teams can do that to you. So, and I mean, you're right. I'm a little bit close to it. I just was at Lambo watching them getting gashed by Aaron Jones. But, I mean, that's the type of stuff you see in the playoffs. So I think they can, but they got some stuff that they got to clean up. Like, I was going to name another team in the NFC before you said the Cowboys.

So I don't know. I mean, like, what worries you about them? Because I'm petrified over here. Again, defense of fragility. are they really one of the best defense in the league? How much does that matter? Is Michael Parsons healthy? I think his ability to completely dominate games is the most important aspect of their ability to be a top tier defense.

So if he's not going to be that guy, whether because he's playing 11 of his snaps as an edge rusher last week, which was frustrating to watch, I understand Anthony Barr was out. But him being right and him being the guy who can completely change the complexion of an entire game. I think is a necessary component. Secondary injuries. Do we know how long Jordan Lewis is going to be out? I'm pretty sure he's done for the year. So that's a concern. And then what is the deal with Anthony Brown?

Do we know that? They said concussion. I don't think that's a long-term thing. Okay. All right. So just again, defensive injuries when you need your defense to be a championship caliber team

is always going to be a little bit concerning to me. So that would be number one. And then it's the same story on. offense. It's the same thing I worried about them last year when they had Amari Cooper. Their ability to create explosive plays in the passing game is going to be the thing I worry about the most with them on offense. I love Dak. I love his ability to control the game. I think that him with the controller in his hand is one of the coolest quarterbacks in the league to watch, but they aren't that firework show in the passing game, and they haven't been for a couple years. And where they

find that, I think, becomes really, really important because Michael Gallup doesn't look great. We just talked about the inconsistencies that you can have with Lamb. I do think they probably need one more guy to hit their ceiling offensively. So that would be my concerns. Just the lack of pop on the offense in the passing game and how fragile defense can be. And we've already seen some of the pillars of what creates their defense kind of get taken away here. Amari Cooper is just toiling away in obscurity in Cleveland right now. He's having like not a not a bad season at all, too. He's like, he's got like 600 yards and five touchdowns. I'm never, I'm never going to let that go.

I obviously, like there were, there were a lot of reasons for it. Like, I mean, the Cowboys were mad at Amari, basically. But like, to know, to know that he could be part of this offense, even, you know, they were mad at him. Easily. He could easily be on the team right now. It's literally, like, they traded him away basically to send a message. Like, they were just like, we would rather send a message. message about us being unsatisfied with your performance and we're just cutting off our nose to spite

our face. Like, Amari Cooper could be that guy. Like, we're sitting here like, oh, maybe Odell Beckham coming off of his second ACL surgery at the age of 30. Like, maybe he can give you 20 snaps a game. And it's like, well, you could just have like a top 15 receiver in the league. You could just have him instead. And they were like, no, we're good. We're good. We'll just ask Jalen Toler to do this as a like it's very Noah Brown So Noah Brown Hey Noah Brown is a wonderful

Wonderful success story Love the guy But yeah He's great He gives you everything he's got I still think if I was trying to win a Super Bowl I would probably rather have a Murray Cooper In my passing game

Well said sir So yeah I mean the pieces are there And then look And we can get off the Cowboys We're probably giving them more time Than they deserve honestly But I'm a very real believer Like the Cowboys effect

works against them. Like, because it is impossible for the cowboys to toil away in obscurity. They can't do it. The minute they look good, they are the talk of everything. And so I think it's tough. I think it's tough to put all the pieces together under that magnifying glass. I think history would agree with me there. Just, you know, 30 years.

And in this social media age, we haven't really seen them be able to do it. So it's possible. but I just lean toward believing it when I see it. I think we're getting down to, it's getting thin here. So I'm wondering how many more you have. Who's your next one? Okay, I have, I mean, I put a few on here to be nice. But there's still a couple teams that I legitimately believe in.

And I honestly. I've got three more. I have three more that are like firmly on my list. I have 10. Okay. I think I had 12 and I threw two on there. I threw two on there at the end just to be nice. but okay if you took Dallas then I'll I mean I'll say Minnesota

they're on there for me it's I actually look I mean if the Vikings had any other quarterback don't you think you would feel so much better about who they are and where they're going like is that fair to say that's how I feel it's really it's the closest thing I can come up with to a concern is just the the meme of Kirk Cousins just not flourishing in the spotlight. Yeah, he's not any other quarterback. I think Kirk Cousins is probably like the 13th best quarterback in the league. I really don't want to list them off right now.

And I already regret actually throwing a number on it. But Kirk Cousins is a fine NFL quarterback. I think if this team had a borderline elite quarterback, it would be a different conversation because we would just get more onto this passing offense. You get more out of Justin Jefferson, all that. Kirk Couss is good enough to pilot you to like a borderline. top 10 offense. And I think that ultimately could be where they end up by the end of the season here. They're on my list for a few different reasons. One, I think that having Justin Jefferson and now having

Hawkinson in the mix, even with Kirk Cousins, they have the pieces to be like a borderline top 10 passing team. And I think that's really important. They've been middle of the road for most of this season because they've struggled to find explosive plays in the passing game. And we talked about this on Sunday night with Mitch. Cousins being more willing to push the ball downfield and saying this is a 50-50 ball for Justin Jefferson, I'm going to let him go get it. That's what I want to see. That's the version of the Vikings that I want to see. And I think them being willing to lean into that and then having Hawkinson in, again, on third

and eight, when teams are playing man coverage against you, do you have more than one guy that becomes an option for you? And now I think that they do. I think that that's why they made the move. So I feel much better about their passing game than I did three weeks ago. And to improve play along the offensive line, they just played better all in the interior against Buffalo than I expected them to. that was the number one concern for me with them over the first half of the season

was what they were doing along the interior of the offensive line because it was rough for huge stretches. If they can get mildly better play from that group, I feel much better about their passing game overall. And then the biggest thing on defense, their front can win you a game. I don't know if they can do it for multiple games at a time. The combination of Zadarius Smith, Hunter, Tomlinson, when he gets back, he's just been out for the last couple weeks. And Harrison Phillips guys like that, I still think that they can be enough. And they were in that Buffalo game. They had some huge moments in that Buffalo game, not sacks or anything like that, but affecting the game consistently.

So if you have an elite pass rush and your passing game can get hot because you have arguably the best receiver in the world for stretches, then I do think that they can do this. And I also think that they're helped by the fact that it's very possible that the Vikings get the number one seat in the NFC. Like their schedule is awful. So if they're hosting two games in the postseason, it makes the path much, much easier. I do think that they're not as good as a lot of the teams that we listed ahead of them on here, in my opinion. But I think that they have the components and the route to theoretically do this. So I think they have to be on this list. And it's, I mean, I guess that's why I asked the question about Kirk is it's funny.

Like the Vikings are a way more complete team than Baltimore, for instance. Like Baltimore is just a good example for me because, again, they're piecing it together. with what they can get out of how good Lamar Jackson is, but you look at the supporting cast and you're like, oh, man, I don't know about this. The Vikings, on paper, the Vikings have it all. It's hard to, I mean, everything you just said, there are weaknesses there.

The offensive line can be a problem. Honestly, I'll be curious to see how well the defense holds up just from an age perspective. Yeah, the back end is not great. Patrick Peterson is having a good. year, but it still is a concern. It is. I mean, it's, it's like senior citizens day for the Vikings with the number of, like, guys over the age of 30 that are making big contributions. But even still, like, it's, it's just,

it's a very complete roster. Like, really, if I trusted Kirk Cousins more, I probably would have said I would have had the Vikings, like, fourth on this list in all honesty. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, I can see it. I can see the vision. I can see the vision. And, you know, Cam Dantzler is going to miss a stretch of games. I don't think he's out for this season, but it does sound like, he's on IR, so he's going to miss at least the next three after missing the Buffalo game. And their secondary, I think, was thin to begin with. They've got some young guys that they can throw in there.

But it's, they're relying on a lot of older dudes, and I think it's pretty precarious on the back end. But I do think the past rush is very good. I just want to say, like, he's not going to win it because Gino Smith is out there and Saquan Barkley's out there. but like Zadarius Smith, like mentioning him for comeback player of the year at least, you talk about basically missing all of last season, Green Bay telling you to pack your bags, and then he goes to a division rival on purpose, and like it's just like what an amazing decision that was. Like a lot of times when a guy signs with a division rival to spite his old team,

a lot of times it doesn't really go that well. meanwhile is Adairius smith is you know put he's over 30 like leading the league in sacks you know he's going to hit double-digit sacks any any day now like that i mean what a what an awesome season for him way to go dude all right i got two more here i don't feel good about this but i think i have to put them on i'm going to put the bucks on there i would have i would have said the same thing that was going to be my next team it's fine they're five and five they're going to make the playoffs they're going to win that division, they're going to host a playoff game. The Bucks still have a top 10 passing offense this season.

For all of the consternation and all of the, oh man, what's going on there? It hasn't looked good at times, but it's been ugly at times. They still have a top 10 passing offense. I still feel like it's disjointed offensively for them, but if they figure a couple more things out and they have time to do it, like they don't have to win all these games. They don't have to be rock solid for the final eight weeks of the season. They still have some time to figure this out because they were going to win that division. And they still have really talented pieces on that side of the ball.

Like they still have Chris Godwin. They still have Mike Evans. Tom Brady isn't washed physically. Like Brady's arm is absolutely fine. They're just a little bit off right now. So if they can kind of figure that out and fine-tune some stuff over the next two months or so, I still think they can be pretty dangerous. And the running game has been absolutely abysmal.

but if Rashad White is potentially a better answer for you than what Lodd-Fernet has been giving you, which I sure hurts your soul. But if Rashad White can give you something and your offensive line kind of settles after rotating in some new guys early in the season, I still feel like there's a version of this team in an NFC where we're not really scared to anybody that can be formidable by the time the postseason rolls around. I feel like I've said

Prisoner of the Moment probably five times on this show But this happens every year Where You know In October we're making up our minds about teams Even though we have decades of knowledge That suggests that these things are not set in stone Like some teams are going to fade away

Some teams are going to figure out what works in December And yeah I mean Fortunately for the Bucks they have I mean what the bucks have the benefit of this incredibly lousy division where yeah i mean that's you know we we we do these segments on on speak on fs one where it's like can the bucks write the ship or the bucks done and like throughout the season i've been like the bucks are not done because they only have to go seven and ten to win the fricking nfc south like so no they're not done they're just hanged five percent chance to make the playoffs it's i mean how mad must the cowboys and giants be

that they're just, they're fighting for their lives, you know, six and three, seven and two. They're fighting for wild card spots while the Bucks are just going to coast to a home playoff game. But, hey, you know, those are the rules. And yeah, I mean, I'm looking at the Bucks schedule right now. Like, it's all very winnable. And, yeah, like, the defense is healthier. I firmly believe if everybody's healthy and doing what they're supposed to be doing, that's like a certainly a top 10 defense, probably a top five defense.

Like those guys didn't all just magically forget how to play football. Losing there is a concern for me. That's my biggest worry. Just because I think that the front four pass rush without him, I have my concerns about it. But that's really my biggest issue because if they're healthy on the back end, then I still think that they're going to be pretty good. But the front four pass rush, that's on my why they won't win the Super Bowl,

that was the second thing I listed is that I was worried about that. Which like, I mean, it's not necessarily a fun way to live. but like I trust Todd Bulls to figure out ways to scheme up pressure. Like that's what he does. And he's got a guy like Devin White who can double as a pass rusher or, you know, as a blitzer. So they can find ways to make it work. Yeah, I mean, no, I'm with you all the way, man. Like the talent is there.

And yeah, it's funny, I am an LSU superfan. So it bums me out that Leonard is not who he used to be. But at the same time, I'm a total draft nerd. And I remember, like, in January of last year, I was at the Senior Bowl, and I was like, who's this Arizona State kid? This guy is massive and has wheels. And sure enough, Rashad White's a pretty damn good football player in his own right. So I'm not saying, hey, Leonard doesn't need to like never see the field. But yeah, maybe bring those snap counts closer to even, and I bet the offense will be better for it.

It already happened. I mean, we've already seen it. We already saw the results. So I think that's a step in the right direction. All right, you're next here. I am so interested in who your next team is going to be. Okay. Oh my God.

I think there's really, there's two choices here. And it goes back to the- I only have one more team left on my list. Yeah, and again, like, I'm getting down into the point where I'm like, do I really believe this? Do I really believe this? Okay. Here goes. The Seattle Seahawks.

They were my first team off. Okay. Hey, I mean, like, we're at the point. point where like, I don't, I don't think that's crazy. And I, like, you know, I'm not going to go put 20 bucks on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl or anything like that. But, man, it's, it's like, it's just one of those things where, like, they're just, they're like a pretty solid football team. And again, and part of this, too, if the Seahawks played in the AFC, I would feel so much differently about this. But again, you're, we've been talking this whole show about the NFC being

watered down and like who do you really have to beat so like i mean if the seahawks are able to hold on and win the nfc west you get a home playoff game at one of the best home field advantage advantages in the league and and you don't feel terribly terribly intimidated by most of the field i think i you know it's the story of the season i can't believe i'm saying it but like gino smith ironically he did he made a pretty brutal mistake against tampa the other day but like he's been playing mistake-free football. I'm at the point now where, like, the bottom's not going to drop out on this. Like, Gino Smith is a wonderfully fun, like, deep-shot quarterback.

Like, he's not afraid to go downfield. They've got the weapons to make plays in the passing game. The running game has been phenomenal more often than it hasn't been. And the defense finds ways to make it work. Like, even in the games where maybe they don't play, you know, amazingly sound. football, they find ways to either get sacks or get takeaways. So, no, I'm not trying to sell you on the Seahawks being like a juggernaut, but I guess I'm trying to sell you on the idea of the Seahawks being capable of winning

two playoff games to get to a Super Bowl. Like, I don't know, have crazier things than that happened? God, that would be, that really would be wild when you think about what we thought of what the Seahawks were in August. So when I was doing this, I had 10 teams that were like, they're in for me. I think they can do this. The Seahawks were in their own section before the teams that I don't think can do it. They're literally how you, I showed you my notes, the Seahawks were their own thing.

I left them off, but I do think that they have a better chance than some of these other teams that are currently in the playoffs, which we'll get to. My biggest worry with them is you saw it against the bucks, and I do think it matters when you get into the playoffs. They don't have enough pass rush for me to overcome just the relative youth, inexperience, and everything else we worry about. out with their defense. I mean, their defense went on a nice little run over the past month. The last four games they played before they played the Bucks, they played two games against the Cardinals and one game against the Giants in that four game stretch. Cardinals been one of the worst offenses in the league this season.

The Giants are limited. Let's say that. The Giants are a limited team offensively. So that run of, oh man, the Seahawks has been the best defense in the league over the last four weeks. They gave up 39 points to the Saints the week before this four game stretch started. They did do that, yes. So I just, I'm still a little bit worried about that.

And if they can't affect, it's not volatility for me on defense if you're not going to be good. Like, I don't think the Vikings are one of the best five defenses in the league, but I think that an elite pass rush or the potential for elite pass rush makes you volatile in a way that I think you need to be. And I'm just not sure the Seahawks are that on defense. Saying the Seahawks can't win the Super Bowl this year, by the way, is not a slight to the Seahawks. The Seahawks are supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They have been awesome to watch. It's a great story.

Gino has been excellent. All the things you said about the offense, I think are true. I just don't think they have enough top to bottom, including on defense, to win a Super Bowl this year. I guess, and I'm probably- I will never hear the end of it. I will be at the front of every fucking cable Thanos video for the rest of time if the Seahawks end up winning the Super Bowl this year. I would be honored to be in a cable Thanos video. Hey, it's, yeah, the Seahawks are bums.

Throw me in there. They're terrible. No, I guess I'm kind of. of, I'm cheating a little bit because, like, I'm just, I'm thinking about getting there, you know, and, like, I guess that's not the end game. Like, I, you know, I, I can't imagine the Seahawks beating whoever they would be playing from the AFC in the Super Bowl. But with, with what the NFC looks like, I can, I can talk myself into seeing it. I don't think it's likely. I think, like, the flaws are definitely too many. I hear you, though. There's a reason that I almost put them on here. I

almost did. They are in their own separate section for me for a reason because they were very, very close. Which, wait, okay, so did you say you have one more team? I have one more team. All right, I want to hear who that is, and then I'll offer a thought. I have the Cincinnati Bengals. Okay. God, all right. We're not, we're not too far off because that, it was between those two. It was between those two. I think the Bengals are a better team. I think the Bengals rode to the Super Bowl is inarguably harder, right? Like, it's a very, very good point. It's a very good And I should have thought more about that when I was making this list.

But here's my case for the Bengals. The Bengals made the Super Bowl last year and almost won the Super Bowl, which doing this entire exercise, we should have said this at the top. It's important to remember that the Bengals almost won the Super Bowl last year. Like all the teams that you think can win it, there are probably three or four more that you're not thinking about. And the 2021 Bengals are the perfect example. The 2022 Bengals are pretty much just the 2021 Bengals.

Like, they're not that much different. So there are three teams in the NFL right now that are top 10 on offense and defense in DVOA. Do you know who those three teams are? Oh, gosh. Well, the fact that you're asking me this makes me think the Bengals are on the list. It's the Bills, the Eagles, and the Bengals. I mean, I was going to say Bills. Jesus.

Are you serious? Yes. The Bengals' offense, the Bengles ceiling offensively is incredibly high. when they're clicking, they're terrifying. They get Jamar Chase back, and they have one of those moments where they're just slinging the ball all over the yard, and you know, you're not making them earn it, and they're fine in every single, single high matchup you're giving them over the course of the game. The running game has shown a lot more signs of life than it did early in the season. So I still think that they're sealing offensively and what they can be in a given game is scary enough to put them in here.

We'll talk about why they won't make it in a second when it comes to their offense. and on defense, they're just hard to deal with. This is a top 10 defense. I think they're very well coached. I'd be worried about some of the injuries that are coming for them, like a Wuzier missing the rest of the season. I think it's huge for them. But I still think that they're a tough out defensively.

So if we're just listing off teams that can win the Super Bowl, like the Bengals at their best, in my opinion, absolutely can still win a Super Bowl. I love just like a good sound unit. I mean, the Bengals obviously have good players on defense, but they do not have like a defensive star. You know, like the guy that's on the Fox graphics when they play is always going to be on offense. You know what I mean? Trey Hendrickson's not getting all that pub before the game.

No, Trey Hendrickson doesn't do it for you. Like, Von Bell's a hell of a player. But again, like, you know, only football junkies know Von Bell. But and yet they're still really good. I love that. I mean, it's a star-driven league. People always say, like, you need game wreckers, especially with the way the rules are tilted toward offense.

But the Bengals are just, like, quietly chugging along with, like, 15 good defensive players. No, I was torn between Cincinnati and Seattle. I think Cincinnati is a better team. Obviously, it's easy to envision them getting hot because they just did it last year. I just think it's such a harder road. it's such a harder road.

I mean, they've already lost to the Ravens. They're not in the playoffs right now. They're fighting up in the playoffs right now. But I still think that there is a world where they get in and they are dangerous. If we're talking about the reasons they won't do it, look at what happened against the Browns the other day. That version of the Bengals is not that far away. It's not that hard for them to slip into that.

And I think that's the concern. That is, is there a team, okay, we're talking. talking about teams that are capable of winning a Super Bowl, is there a team that has looked as simultaneously good and awful as the Bengals? Like when the Bengals are bad, they're bad. Like, they, I mean, you're not getting like, oh, you know, if we just get a couple, we missed out on like three plays and we win that game. Like, no, like when the Bengals have been bad, they are not fun to watch. And then when they're clicking, they're the most fun team to watch in the entire league. So the duality of man, I guess.

Football outsider has a stack called variance. It's just a week-to-week differentiation in who you are on either side of the ball. The Bengals are dead last. The Bengals are the most volatile offense in the league. Who do you think is the least volatile offense in the league? Because it is a hilarious answer. I would have guessed Philly, but that's not very funny. So I'm guessing, oh, geez, who do we have? Oh, God, is it freaking Is it like Detroit? Say it's Detroit. No, Detroit's, the Lions are 14th.

Like the Lions are 13th in offensive DUA. The Lions are fine on offense. No, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's the Broncos. The Broncos are the most consistent offense in the league because they're consistently terrible. That's so depressing. That's so depressing. Oh, it's really, really good.

I'm happy I found that. Can we pour one out for the fat? Like, you got to love the NFL because, you know, you told me in advance what we were doing. and I thought about it and put my list together, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. The Broncos and Raiders, obviously, like, didn't even spend a moment even thinking about it. It's just funny. It's the fun time of the year where you think back on your priors from August, like, the fact that I thought the Indianapolis Colts might pull a Tennessee and be the number one overall seed. Like, I thought, I'm like, oh, good team and a bad division?

Like, what's not to like? and here we are with Jeff Saturday coaching. Do you have one more? You said you had 12. It's 11. But I like, I threw, I said I threw a couple on there to be nice. But all right, I mean, it would be mean to not even mention the New York Giants. Like, they're seven and two, right?

Like, I get it. Nobody's impressed. Like, they can't do. anything to win anybody's respect and like do i genuinely believe that they're a super bowl contender no but i mean like those results are are incredibly impressive to maintain and maybe maybe the bottom will drop out but honestly i kind of doubt it and the the reason why like when i i mean when i say the bottom drops out like i'm not saying the giants are going to go 14 and 3 or whatever but, you know, they're going to finish with a winning record.

And my main reasoning for why is their balance is so impressive. And the fact that they've been able to stay that balanced with no talent to speak of in the passing game is incredible. Like I mentioned that about Brian Daibel at the start of the show. Just the way that they are consistently able to get it both ways. Like, for instance, I guess Tennessee's, doing this a little bit in their own right, again, with no pass catching options. But, like, it's not, it's not just all Sequin. Like, obviously, that is a huge, huge part of it.

But they are getting efficient play, not spectacular play, but efficient play from Daniel Jones. He's been adding his ability as a runner. Like, again, like, I love Brian Daibold just basically being like, all right, this is what we got. You know, it's like this, you know, the spare lunch meets laying around your fridge. you can make a pretty damn good sandwich with the stuff laying around your fridge. And that's what Brian Dable is doing.

God, Brian Dable makes a hell of a sandwich. I guarantee you. That guy is just a sandwich artist. Oh, there's no doubt. Yeah, he's got like, he's got six mustards in the refrigerator drawer. As a man with six mustard in his refrigerator, I deeply respect that. But I think that's why I feel a kinship with Brian Dable. But I just appreciate, like, it seems like they know how to pivot and find.

success even when when their go-to plan is not working, which is a very impressive thing for them to be able to do considering their their lack of talent. Is it enough to win multiple playoff games? I don't think so, but it's not. I just, I feel good about that. Like, I just, they are an amazing story. I am so impressed by what they have done this season. They're not winning in multiple playoff games. Like, the games that they've been in, they just lost by two scores to the Seahawks. Like, their bounces of the ball away from losing to the Ravens and the Jags.

Like, this team is not, they're not going to win a Super Bowl. They're immensely well-coached. What they have done is unbelievable this season. I think that Brian Daibel is legitimately the coach of the year. They can't, I don't think they can win three-play-off games. Like, look at the game scripts that they've been in. They haven't had to be in these games. where it's like, all right, we're dropping back and we have to throw the ball 45 times

for us to win this game. They haven't played the Eagles yet. I just, I don't think that they're that team. And that's okay. That's okay. They were supposed to be the worst team in the league. Yeah. No, I mean, I agree with you.

I think at the very least, like I said, I think at the very least it's nice to just mention, it just, it doesn't sit well with me to know that there's a seven and two team out there. and to do a podcast about the playoffs and you don't even mention them, I'm like, all right, at least we can do is throw them a bone. But yeah, I just, I don't know. I don't see the thing that they do well enough that makes me think that they could win multiple playoff games. Could they surprise the hell out of somebody in a wildcard game?

Absolutely. I completely believe that that's possible. But they're likely going to be a wildcard team, which means they have to win three games in the NFC, likely on the road to get to the Super Bowl, even to get there. And I just don't think that's going to happen. That's the giant specialty, though.

That's the giant specialty. No, I'm kidding. I'm talking out of my ass. It's 20-22. In 2007, I think that you could win that way. I just don't think that they're winning that way. I don't think that 2007 Giants pass rushers walking through that door either. The defense has been better than I expected, but I just don't think that they have the guys to do this.

There are four teams, three other teams outside of the Giants that are currently in the playoffs, if they started today, that I do not think can win the Super Bowl this year. the Giants are one of them. The Jets are another. The Jets defense has been excellent. It has been so fun to watch them. It's a great story. I just am not trusting the quarterback to win three playoff games in the

AFC. It just not happening. And that's okay. They weren't supposed to be a Super Bowl contender this year, and I don't think they are a Super Bowl contender this year. They still have some stuff to figure out on that side of the ball. They're extremely well coach, but I just don't think that Zach Wilson can take you there.

The Patriots have, now that the Colts have Parks Frazier, play-calling superstar. I think the Patriots might have the ugliest offense in the league with Mac Jones. So the Patriots are not getting there for me. And I don't think the Titans go in the Super Bowl. The Titans are same kind of deal. Unbelievably well coached, like their defense and being able to roll out 11 random guys

they found on the street that week and just puts you in hell for 60 minutes is really impressive. But I'm just not sure that Nick Westbrookickeekina and this version of Robert Woods and Dennis Daly at left tackle and all that stuff is winning a couple of playoff games to take you there. Even if they're hosting a playoff game, they will host a playoff game this year. I still don't think the Titans are going to win the Super Bowl or can't win the Super Bowl with this team. I'm fascinated.

This is a different conversation for a different day, but like I'm fascinated by when and how the Titans pivot because like they are such, they're such an embodiment of Mike Brable. They want to get into an alley fight and just bash you with a garbage can and play great defense, run the ball, all that stuff that you would expect a linebacker who played at Ohio State and New England to do. But it clearly has a ceiling. This team is clearly limited when you're talking about beating the Mahomes' and the Josh Allen's of the world. And you know, you saw San Francisco do it. Obviously, it hasn't worked, but they were willing to take a huge swing to fix that. issue. I would love to see, you know, like, is Mike Vrable just going to keep plugging away

trying to win this way, or do the Titans eventually try to join the AFC arms race? I just have no idea what to do with Ryan Tannahill. Like, Ryan Tannahill, he also is an embodiment of this entire coaching philosophy to me. It's like, tough as shit, he's going to make five throws a game. It's like, oh, my God, like the ball placement, his willingness to stand in there. But that's the pivot. question. It's like eventually I think you probably need to be better at that spot, ultimately to get there, how you find that guy. These are all important looming questions for the Titans. My thing that I appreciate about the Titans is they don't seem to give a shit week to week about

the answers to those questions. It's just like, we're going to make this really unpleasant for you for the next three hours of your life. I hope you have a good time. They are the most fun, boring team in NFL history, if that makes sense. It makes total sense. Yeah, I'm with you on all of that. And that's, I mean, I can talk myself into mentioning the Giants because they play in the NFC. But when you're talking about getting through the AFC, you know, miss me with the Jets and the Titans and the Patriots. And, yeah, I mean, you know, I want the Chargers to be good so badly, but they're just, they're so banged up.

I just don't see it. So, yeah. So the Chargers of the team, neither of us mentioned. and the Chargers have potential to make the playoffs still. I think they have a 40% chance according to 538 if you look at it right now. I think they're too banked up. I think the offensive line injuries and being kind of forgettable on defense, even if I do think that they, for a single game, can give you some trouble.

I just don't think that they have it. And I love the quarterback. I think he is really good and is going to be really good. But I'm just not sure this version of the Chargers can, again, win three playoff games. I feel almost as good about them as I do about. some of these other teams in the AFC conversation, like the Jets or the Titans, just because I do think that the quarterback can do some ridiculous stuff over the course of a single game, but they're so banged up, and I also just don't even know if they're going to make the playoffs.

So that's why I think that they're just hard to mention in this conversation. Can I sell you at all on the idea that I believe, I think last time I checked Twitter, yeah, okay, I just double-checked. like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are coming back to practice. I know like, I mean, fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, all that good stuff. But like, you know, it kind of, you know, it may be a Bengals vibe where it's like, screw it. I'm not doing this. I'm just not doing this.

Like maybe like there's a world where you can start talking me into it. I'm not going to do this to myself and I'm not going to put this into the public record. It's just not worth it. No, that's fair. Of all of these teams, all these teams. if anyone's on the borderline and I said they can't win the Super Bowl like the Bengals right if I're like the Bengals can't win the Super Bowl and they eventually did I would hear about it for the rest of time if I say the Chargers can't win the Super Bowl and they do I have so much goodwill built up in the Chargers community this is a worthwhile dice rule for me just to say that they can't I can't imagine at this point like with everything we know about the Chargers like everything they've been through going back to the year that they have the best offense, but the worst defense and the worst special teams. All of that history and then all of the injuries that they've had to deal with this year,

there can't be a Charger fan left in the world that would be mad that we're leaving them off this list, you know? Like, it's not possible. There's no way a Charger fan is like, the disrespect. Every Charger fan is like, yeah, just don't talk about us. Let us play for a month in quiet for a minute. I mean, Justin Herbert made like four throws on Sunday night where it's just like, dude is an alien.

And I still am not going to let myself do this. It's just not worth it. I will talk myself into the Chargers again. It'll just be next May. Sure. Yeah. That's an annual tradition, but I'm not going to do it again in 2022. I love myself too much to talk myself into the Chargers again.

Or that wrong way to phrase that. I don't hate myself enough to talk myself into the Chargers again. This is what the chargers needed. They needed to finally get maize to jump off the bandwagon, and now they can put their run together. God, it's so fucking true. It's just, I hate how true that is. All right, that's a great note on which to end this.

David Hellman, really, really appreciate you doing this, buddy. I'm sure we would have done this, like, in private, in some way, shape, or form. So to do this into a microphone, really good to chat with you. Really appreciate the time. Anytime, man. This was a ton of fun. I really appreciate it. And yeah, have a good one, my guy.

All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Mike Sando and Randy Mueller will be here tomorrow on Thursday with the Football GM podcast. If you guys have not listened to that, I would highly encourage you to check it out. They've done a fantastic job. Also, if you haven't listened to Prospects to Pros with Dane Bruegler and Andy Staples, you guys really should. They're just draft conversations on that show. You're not getting anywhere else.

Like, listening to Dane download his draft brain for an hour every single week is a true pleasure. the show they did with Bruce Feldman last week, just an unbelievably good conversation. Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl is going to be on with them this week. If you're a draft guy, even if you're not, it's Thanksgiving or almost Thanksgiving. It's time to switch your brain into draft mode. And this is the best draft conversation I think you were going to hear anywhere.

So please start listening to Prospects or Pros, if you are not right now. You're going to get a ton out of it. Those two shows will be coming to you before Nate and I will be back with our week 11 preview. Nate is going to be back this week. really excited to chat with him again, our new dad on the podcast. So please come back, check all of that out. Really appreciate you guys spending the time. Please subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't.

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