The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The Table: Cutting 10 Super Bowl contenders down to eight

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

Ten teams started the season with a seat at The Lombardi Table, a place where only the teams we deem legitimate Super Bowl contenders can sit. Ten teams remain, although the composition has changed. Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman take away two seats and cut the membership down to eight on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Connect with The Athletic Football ShowTake our listener survey: https://forms.gle/9CwBVwManjR9froy9X: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: [e-mail]: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We are cutting down the table today. For those of you guys who aren't familiar with the exercise, before the season started, we decided that we were going to take 10 teams and put them at the contenders table in the NFL heading into the year, the teams that we thought had a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. We could tweak those teams over the course of the year. We've taken four teams out, I believe, and put four teams in.

But keeping it at 10, I don't know, those aren't real stakes. That's not hard. we wanted to keep it a little bit spicy and cut the table down at some point during the year and this is that moment. So we are cutting the table from 10 down to 8 teams today. Reminder, if a team is off, they cannot be put back on. So the teams that we're cutting off today,

they cannot be put back into the conversation. And so there's some tough stuff here. There are some hard decisions that had to be made and there are some dicey ones that had to be made. really enjoyed this discussion with me, Dave Hellman and Derek Klesson. Let's get to it right now. I've been looking forward to this one. I think I was a little scared of it earlier in the week when we first started kicking this conversation down the road about how this might go today

because there are going to be some tough decisions that we have to land on over the course of this show. Dave, I know that you've just been relishing this. You actually were looking forward to this in a real way. I hate it so much. I hate it. I think like for right or for wrong, I just, I just can't stop imagining like the hype videos that caught, like, every team or like content creators put out for the playoffs. What was that guy? He has a real name on Twitter now, but that guy who is doing the, like the Seahawks videos.

Cable Thanos? Camel Thanos. Camel Thanos. It was something Thanos and I couldn't remember exactly what it was. I think he's really, was like, gosh. Yeah. But yeah, he's, yes. So that was always the fear a few years ago is that you said something shitty about the Seahawks, you would end up in.

of the cable fan house videos. It's still my fear because there's somebody that does that for like every fan base. And so all you have to do is just the internet is too fractured now. We don't notice them anymore. You got to just get out over your skis a little bit too much one time and you might be getting dunked on by, you know, Rams fans for the rest of your life. I don't know. It scares the shit out of me if I'm being honest.

I feel like I've been around the internet long enough. They're like I'm going to be dumped on a million times. I don't care. Yeah. This is like generation. This is all I've ever known, baby. This is so true. This is like a perfect distillation.

of what it is like to be 38 years old versus 28 years old, is that I came to this version of the internet as a fully fledged adult with sentience and consciousness. You didn't. Like, the internet already existed in its current form by the time that you arrived at that point as a person, and that has set you up for these moments in a way that I am just not equipped to handle.

Yeah, so I'm ready to stand on some takes, and if someone gets mad, then someone gets mad, let's kick some teams out the door here. I admire Derek so much because I'm just like, but the schedule's going to lighten up and this guy might get healthy and here's why we could be wrong about this. And Derek just like, screw that. These guys suck. These guys are good.

Let's go. Before we dig into the cutting exercise, I think I want to explain how we got here for the people who might be watching on YouTube who are not familiar with what we've been doing with this throughout the entire season. So before the year started, we picked 10 teams that we put at the contenders table. the teams that we thought had a legitimate chance of winning the Super Bowl. As the season went on, at any point, one of us could nominate a team that was not among that list, and then we would talk about it amongst three of us, and we would have to come to a consensus decision about whether we were going to include a new team and kick one of the existing ones out.

The current makeup of the table, it exists right now on November 19th at 2.10 p.m. Eagles, Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Packers, Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, Bucks. Those are our 10 current teams. The teams that have been taken off the table already are the Texans, the 49ers, the commanders, and the Bengals. They have been replaced, not one for one, but the teams that weren't on there originally,

were the Colts, the Seahawks, the Rams, because of Matthew Stafford. We weren't sure about that, so that's why we did that before the season. And then the Bucks were the other team. So those are the four that are now on there that weren't at the beginning. our task today is that we are cutting that group from 10 to 8 because at a certain point you need to do that for this exercise to remain interesting and so we felt like this was the moment after week 11 just over the halfway point rounding toward Thanksgiving it's the time to make

some tough decisions with who belongs to the table and who doesn't the haves and have nots are starting to identify themselves yes and you know dane and I just did a whole draft podcast about the top 10 of the draft order. That is starting to take shape. The playoff picture is starting to take shape. I mean, 14 teams are going to make it. And I don't know how many, first of all, not all of those teams are going to be Super Bowl caliber.

And then how many? They certainly can't be because we have eight that we need to land. And then how many are even after that do you feel that sold on? So it should be easier in theory, but I feel like I'm going to make this difficult. So here's how we're going to go about this. We're going to decide, before we start debating between some of these teams,

which teams we think are just no doubt about it, write it in pen, these guys belong at the table among the final eight. I think collectively we've come to a place where we have four teams that we feel good about. The Los Angeles Rams, to me, have an argument as the best team in the NFL. I don't think we have to really go back and forth on that very much. I think the Rams belong at the table. The team that they beat on Sunday,

but they beat in a very close game in which they're quarterback through four interceptions, I think the Seahawks, in my opinion, belong at the table based on the way that they have played this year. They have a top five offense. They have a top five defense according to most metrics. Like, that is their team right now that I think I don't have to think that much about as it relates to something like this. Do you agree? I do agree. And I just, I appreciate that we're billing them that way because it took us a minute to put them on.

And like, we could have had that conversation weeks ago and we waited. And maybe Seahawks fans would have preferred we did it quicker. At least we are now doing them the favor of just being like this. is a slam dunk. There's no doubt of my mind even coming off of a loss. They're absolutely on that show. Losing by two points to the best team in the league

is like, doesn't really change your quarterback for four intersections. Yeah, it doesn't really change my opinion of how good you are. They probably have the best defense in the league right now as it stands. And their offense has been really good for a good majority of this season.

So I have no issue with that whatsoever. The two other teams that we're going to put on here, maybe there's more of a discussion, but I think it makes sense as to why we landed here. I think the Eagles belong among this group of four teams. We have seen them do it as recently as last year, where the offense was languishing a bit during the regular season.

They kick it into another gear for the playoffs. It feels like their defense is starting to approach the type of unit they were last year when they were the best unit in the entire NFL. And so the Eagles, to me, I didn't have to go back and forth or Heming Hall that much for Philadelphia. And then the last team that we had was the Buffalo Bills. I think that one maybe offer a little bit more debate, but a team quarterback by Josh Allen that is still by almost every metric there is, like a top six or seven offense,

a past defense that's still pretty good, despite what their run defenses look like. So those are the four teams that we felt like, we don't have to debate this, we don't have to go back and forth on it. They are the ones that firmly belong at the table. Are we comfortable with that group of teams? I think so.

I think they all deserve it. And like even if there's some hemming and hawing, like if we opened up the full discussion to like really having to sort out all eight teams, they probably all end up in there, even after some discussion, I will say, I think at least two of these teams lose on Wildcard weekend.

Like, I really don't trust anyone in the leak outside of the Rams. Wow. I'm trying to think what that would look like. I mean, one of the Rams or Seahawks have to be the wild card team. The Eagles are not a very strong current one seed. They're technically one seat over the Rams right now, I think, because they have to head to head. And then the Bills, somebody could run for 200 yards. Oh, the bill's defense gives me a lot of pause as far as even being a slam dunk to be at the table.

But no, but look at the other options. and I think it's the right call. Yeah, they would still be in if we opened it all the way up. I just like, if I, if it were me by myself making like the who is the teams that I'm not even thinking about putting on the table, it's just Los Angeles probably. I think that's fair. Maybe so. I think these are the three safest bets among the other teams. I think in part the bills deserve to be there just because they're still very good on offense despite it being a little bit frustrated.

When your quarterback can do what he did last week, like that's where they are good enough in all the other areas. as to warrant inclusion. They do this every year. Like, that's not to say that they'll finally get over the hump, but I say this all the time. Like, every year we have these panic attacks about their defense. And that is a worthy conversation for January, but in November, they're a contender.

There are four other teams. So that leaves us with four spots. There is a handful of teams that are playoff teams right now as a currently stands, or at least in contention to be playoff teams, that I also don't think we have to spend a ton of time on because I don't think that they belong as part of this conversation. As much as saddens me to say,

the Chicago Bears are included in that group. Can they change your mind? No. At all? The defense is too bad. The defense is not good enough. Come on. Right now, we don't need to do this.

We do not need to. I want to push you to that place where you believe. We do not need to speed run the Bears inclusion at the contender table. Things are going well. It's progressing at the pace. I'd like it to progress at, that's all I need at this point for me to be satisfied

with everything that's happening. I just want you to jump in. No. I'm jumping in as far as I'm going to jump in. You've heard me talking about the quarterback and the offense over the last two weeks. The Bears are in that.

The team they're playing this week is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers, if the playoffs started today, they would be a playoff team. I do not think they are a real contender for a myriad of reasons. The Jaguars also do not think they're a real contender,

despite what happened last week against the Chargers, still have enough questions about that team on both sides of the ball, and then the team they beat the shit out of last week, the Los Angeles Chargers, I also do not think, deserves even a discussion

about whether they should be at the contender table. Are we okay with not diving into the cases for or against any of those four teams? I'm okay. I'm just curious for y'all's take. All right, I know how you feel about the Bears. Out of those four are the Jags the most likely to, like, change your mind over the next seven weeks? Chargers.

It's the Chargers. Even with all the offensive lines, though. But that's the thing. There's a chance that Herbert can just, like, go nuclear in a way that, like, I love Trevor, but it's probably not going to happen. If they stumble into a workable offensive line somehow between now, let's just say, like, oh, we threw Jamari-Sollier at left tackle and it actually solved something in a way that we didn't think it would, that version of this team, I think is the most dangerous. I think that's a far-off remote possibility, but I think that's at least something plausible among this group of four teams. Interesting. Like there's a version of the Chargers if they solve that to a degree that is the most, that is the scariest among these four.

I also just trust their coaching staff the most, I think, of this group, which I think goes a long way. I think that's fair. I lean toward the Jags, just, which my heart wants to, my brain, you know. The big problem with the Jags is just trusting them to not JAG for three weeks in a row. Which, by the way, they played the Titans in Week 18. Doesn't it feel like they could like get to a win-in-in-in situation and just f*** up and Cam Ward throws for like 350 yards? make the playoffs. That's not what this conversation is about. I'm not, yeah, I'm not saying that. It feels like we're setting up for a very jaggs end of the season. I'm, I'm with you. I'm,

okay with that. Okay. So that leaves us with four spots and I think eight teams that are in contention for those four spots. So here is the, he's already just like getting to itchy over there. He is dreading this discussion. I hate it. Okay. Patriots, Colts. Broncos, Packers, Lions, Bucks, Ravens, Chiefs. Those are the eight remaining teams that we're going to have to choose from for our final four spots. And we are going to dig into that conversation right after our first break. Okay. So Derek and I were discussing this in the office before you got here, Dave. And we were talking about which direction we wanted to do this.

Would you rather try to pick the four teams first, or would you rather eliminate teams that you do not think are going to get I'd rather eliminate teams. I think that's the right way to go. And I think I can start this off by departing from my usual biases. This is great. This makes things very easy for us. They just want to make quick work of it. Go.

I know where this is going. The bucks don't need to do it. Yeah. And it sucks because I can point to a lot of reasons why they haven't been as good here recently. And I think there's optimism for them playing better. They have been on a brutal schedule stretch, by the way. You play a good team every week. They're playing the Rams.

again this week. We're going to talk about it on the preview show. After this Rams game, they'd play a bunch of beatable teams and like they could inflate their record. But having watched them all season, it was really fun what they were doing in the first five or six weeks. I think they would have looked more like that caliber team by now. If they were, we would have seen more flashes of it if they were capable of reaching a higher ceiling than what they've been. And honestly, they look like a different version of what we've seen in the last couple years, which is a good team, a team that could maybe even win a playoff game. But if we're talking about Super Bowl contenders, they just don't have the look to me.

It looks closer to the 2020 version of this Bucks team with a better defense. Especially without Bucky or 24 version, right? I think some of that is the offensive skill position injuries they've had. If you look at the season long stats, some of it is dealing with the offensive line injuries they had for the first half of the season. But this offense is not at the level it was last year, even if I do think the defense is better. are equipped just because all of those additions in the secondary. I'm curious to see what that defense will look like over a multi-year

span when they get Hassan Reddix and Kalashicansis of the world back because I do think that everything they've gotten from, I was going to say the back seven, everything they've gotten from the secondary in coverage this year. I think has been really encouraging, but I'm with you. I think among all of these teams, they're

probably the easiest to cross off. That's kind of where I landed as well. Like the linebackers are just not playing good enough. And then I like other parts of the defense, but like outside of VitaVay, you don't really have enough of a star player for me to really feel like you can just like hard swing games on that side of the ball. And then the offense, again, a lot of this is part of injury, a lot of missing your best receivers, but like the passing offense just isn't good enough. And I know that they beat the hell out of the bills in the ground game last week. The bills run defenses. Yeah, like,

that's a bill's problem. I'm sorry, plenty of teams can do that to them. So again, maybe with the right matchups, like they're still a good enough team, maybe steal a wild card game the way that they did in 2023 against the Eagles, but like, and to be clear, I don't feel any worse about like the infrastructure or overall, like, health of the organization for the way that this season is gone. Like, I think they're a really

good team in org. It's just like, it probably don't have the juice to do it this year, and that's fine. That's kind of how I feel about it too. And I think that we'll talk about this on the previous show. I'll be curious to hear your guys as thoughts about what's going on with the offense as it currently stands. We haven't really had like a Josh Grasard conversation because it was going

well enough at the beginning of the season and Baker was playing so well that I think that took up a lot of the oxygen. But we'll spend some time kind of sitting with the bucks and on the preview show this week because they're playing with the Rams. Spoiler, that's going to be one of our games of the week. And so we will spend a decent amount of time kind of taking stock of where they are. But I think it's kind of easy to eliminate them as part of a discussion like this. Okay. So in my mind, there is kind of a clear next team to bring up when we're putting teams on the chopping block. I want to hear, I want to hear this. because I honestly, I'm not saying every team here.

I think there's probably two. I think there's two that are kind of lumped in the next. I don't know where to start. Can we eliminate the one that is my bias? Yes. We absolutely can. That's an easy way of doing this. The New England Patriots are not a Super Bowl team.

Okay. You're by, I thought you were talking about a different team and you were about to to be. No, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. No, the New England Patriots are not a Super Bowl team. And I know that in almost every other year when you would go, oh, well, the team with the potential MVP quarterback might be,

a good Super Bowl team, but the thing is that his particular case for MVP is that he's dragging a team that is terrible. Their defense is no good. The offensive lines, he hasn't got off this for one inch. They're not a good team. He hasn't moved off this one inch. The defense is one of the worst in the league. The offensive line, I know like numbers-wise is kind of better, but they're still,

I don't think a unit that I would trust. And the skill players are obviously better. Like Henderson's coming on, the receiving core has something to it in a way it didn't last year. And I do think the coaching staff is good. but his MVP case is that he's clearly dragging a team that is not of this quality to a higher quality. And that might mean them going from mediocre team

to him dragging them to, you know, 12 wins or whatever. But that doesn't make them a Super Bowl team in my mind. Like I just struggled to see a team with that offensive line and that defense winning three or four playoff games in a row. I think some of the nuance that's important here when discussing his MVP case versus the upside case for the Patriots. When we were talking about Drake May's MVP case, I've said this multiple times.

Nate brought this up when he was talking about it. The fact that the defenses that they played, that slate is the middle of the road. They played a decent amount of defenses and the offense continues to be very good. That's a Drake May conversation. You can do the, they ain't beaten nobody

when we're talking about their upside conversation. They have one win over the bills. Other than that, there just aren't a lot of impressive wins on this team's schedule. They beat the bucks in a kind of an ugly game. I just think that they're not there yet. And that's okay.

They're way ahead of schedule. The fact that the Patriots are not a Super Bowl contender in year one under Mike Vrabble and year two with Drake May when last year year they were in the midst of like a total full scale rebuild it's okay that this is where we land on this team right now. I'm going to push back a little bit just because they might get the one seat in the AFC and just by virtue of doing that,

you win one game and you're in the conference title game. That seems doable to me. But then you need to win two more games to win the Super Bowl. But if you're playing in the final four, doesn't that make you a contender? The commanders were in the final four last year. And I did like that.

They were not winning the Super Bowl. The commanders went on a way more zany run, though. You know, like they had to, like they started, they went on the road as a wild card. They beat the number one seed. All the Pats would have to do in this world is win a home game and they're in the AFC championship game. But when it comes to like the quality of the team,

do you think that this Pats team is like a better football team and then last year's Washington Commanders by a considerable margin. I don't. I don't think so either. I don't either. I still... It feels...

The home feel advantage does this like do something. It feels strange to me to eliminate a team that might have the MVP and might be the one seat in the AFC. Well, we're going to talk about a team that also might be the one seat in the AFC here in a second. We also might eliminate them. So this is a strange year when it comes to the seating in the AFC. I just do not think we have to cut off four teams.

We do. And I think that the pay. Patriots, when you look at the top to bottom quality of the roster still at this moment, is kind of an easy team to eliminate despite the fact that they might have the one seat. I'll do it under protest. But if I'm outnumbered, I'm outnumbered. In your final group of eight, were they in there? Oh, I didn't even make a final group of eight.

I just wanted to talk to out with y'all. Okay. All right, okay. No. What? So he seems just to cause problems. He has no views of his own. I wanted to sort this out in real time and see how I really felt about it.

You're just making me and Robert work for it. So he's just going to make the case in every single team. Because he didn't have the balls to cut any teams off before we got to the table here. You know what? Like, your logic is sound. And I'll say this. I'll say this. I still contend that if you've got an MVP...

If you've got an MVP quarterback and a home field advantage, that feels like it should matter. But, and this is why I hate this so much. Like, I'm looking at several teams with much worse records that I like a lot more. And, like, spoiler alert, I'm down to cut the pats before I cut the chiefs. or several other teams. And I think that's okay to do. I think, all right, this is going to come up a bunch.

I love the fact that his approach to this discussion is he's going to advocate for every single team and under protest, allow them to be cut. So he pisses off no one by the time we get to the end of this. It's actually a really savvy strategy. I didn't even run out of that. Every fan base is going to be able to pull this clip. Maybe like somebody believes. He's going to fight for every team knowing that we have to cut most of them.

I'll be mean to a couple teams just to balance it out. I think this is going to be a recurring theme when we talk about a lot of these teams and this is devoid of logic or reason or stats when you've seen teams do it before. It is much, much easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to something like this. And the Patriots are one of those teams.

We have not seen them do it before and it becomes harder to give teams like that the benefit of the doubt. It just is. I agree with you. It's very funny to think the chiefs could lose to the Colts this weekend and be up shit creek.

They've already lost a few. The timing of this is tough. If we had done it next week, it probably would have been easier. I'm still not scared. I'm good. Like the Chiefs could be behind the eight ball with tiebreakers to even make the playoffs. But having said that, it wouldn't change my mind that I'd rather bet on the Chiefs to do this. You know, I'd rather bet on the Chiefs to go on some insane run than think that the Patriots are going to go from top five in the draft order to winning the Super Bowl.

That's how I feel as well. Okay. Okay. So I think this is where it starts getting more difficult. who is the next team you would put up for debate a potential elimination? I think this says a lot about you as a person. The Indianapolis Colts.

I think that is my answer as well. At the end of the day, we've said so many nice things about the Indianapolis Colts. It's okay to be hesitant to back a Daniel Jones quarterbacked team through the playoffs. Everything I just said about sometimes you have to have seen a team do it before, whether before you're willing to say they can do it this time. the Colts are the exact team I had in mind when I was saying that out loud.

And I think with the Colts too is just like, look, the run that they were on for the first seven weeks of the season. And they're still a good offense, by the way. Even though it's like, they're the best opposite of the week. It's toned down the last like month or so. But even if you just put it over the last month, they're still like ninth in like success rate and like 12th in DVO. Like there's still a pretty good offense even with some of the dips. But like if we're doing this, like I just, Daniel Jones, I just, it's more likely we get the guy that we've seen the last six years. than it is the last guy that we've seen the last three months.

Yeah, exactly. Like that guy is not good enough. And two, I think that is the easy part of it is like the Daniel Jones of it all. I don't think this defense is good enough to like really make a run. If Daniel Jones is going to fall back a little bit to earth, I think one of your sides of the ball truly has to be like an elite unit. And the way that Jones has played over the last month,

on top of what that defense is, I just don't think they have a top five or six unit on either side of the ball. And that kind of scares me. They're statistically bottom half of the lead defense. Barely, but like, yeah, you're not talking about a defense that's, and it's a small sample size since they got Sauce Gardner. It's only one game, so I'll keep an open mind, but I agree with you about the defense. Daniel Jones looks more, like he looked like the T-1,000 for the first like eight weeks of the season, just like a cyborg sent back from the future to make the right decision. And he just looks more like a person the last a couple weeks.

And like they still, they won one. of those games and he made a nice play at the end of the Falcons game to help him win it, but I'm comfortable saying that I don't all the way believe that he's going to win several big playoff games in a row. I also, this probably won't happen. I think they are more in danger of losing the division than it like might feel. Because like obviously they're 8 and 2 record, but they've had one of the top five easiest

schedules in the league up to this point. Who's going to catch them? The Jags? Oh man. I told you, I'm like, there's a little bit, I have a little bit of jacks. So I'm fine not putting them in there because they're not a Super Bowl team. But I think that the Jags schedule is significantly easier. They still have to play this team twice, I believe.

And the Colts schedule from here on now, according to DVOA, is the hardest in the league. Colts schedule is tough. It's brutal. We've talked about it before. You got your four harder division games all remain. Obviously, this big one with the Chiefs and a couple other really tough ones too. I expect the Colts to not follow. apart but look more like a normal NFL team over the next six.

Look more like a nine-win team, which if we got like, if we got going into the season what felt like the optimistic version of Daniel Jones, this was probably like an eight or nine-win team. And like they're probably more realistically like falling back towards that caliber of team, I think the offense is better than that. I do think even if they fall back a little bit, I think the offense is better than that. We've talked about this after the Falcons game. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Daniel Jones was number one in the NFL,

I believe in success rate and EPA per dropback when pressured. I think he was the only quarterback in the league to have positive total EPA when pressured over the first half of the year. Over the last two weeks, I believe he has something like negative 30 total EPA when pressured. So I don't think it's either one of those extremes. I think it's something that's probably closer to the middle. I still believe enough in the offensive line, the infrastructure, the play calling, the talent across the rest of the unit, that they can be like a borderline,

top five-ish, top seven-ish offense over the rest of the rest. of the way. I don't think I feel as good about either unit for the Jaguars as I do about the Colts offense. No. The Jaguars thing, to be clear, is not a, like, they are even a better team than the Colts necessarily. It's just like their path to getting to the division between these two teams is, like,

closer than you would think just looking at their record. You just said the Colter are a 9 and 7 team. The Colts are 8 and 2 right now. I know. No, no, no. I'm saying... The quality of a 9 of 8 team. Yes.

Going into the season, if we got what felt like the optimistic version of Daniel Jones before or what we've seen this year, you probably would have said that was like an eight or nine win team. I think that I'm not sure. I still think they're like a 10 or 11 win playoff team with the overall quality of the offense. I just don't think that is good enough to be a Super Bowl team given the state of the defense. I probably am being a little harsh thing. And I mean, 11 and 6 when you start 8 and 2, that's still a disappointing way to, you know, to be playing at the end of the season, even if the schedule is really tough. So, but for all of the reasons outlined here.

I'm fine leaving them off. Okay. So that's our third team off, Indianapolis Colts. Before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break. The next team that I feel like is in line for this sort of discussion,

fair or unfair, I alluded to it earlier. Right now, you said the Patriots might be the one seat in the AFC. The current one seat in the AFC is the Denver Broncos. And they are the next team I would bring up as part of this discussion.

I'm sure that will piss a lot of people off. But there are reasons behind my rationale here. Broncos fans are probably used to it by now. Exactly. They don't seem like they're fans of the show at this station. Can you know what? That's okay with me. Where are you out with this?

Do you feel like the Broncos should be at the table as we round toward the back half of the season here or the home stretch of the season? No. And I... Wow, that was pretty definitive. That was weirdly definitive for you. That was quicker and cleaner than I expected it to be.

I respect the hell out of their defense and their defense is going to give them a chance to win playoff games, like to be a pain in the ass. But you're still talking about, and it's funny because the Broncos have the type of defense that could give you a shot to win a Super Bowl. I feel better about the, like I feel better about Drake May.

And like Drake May dragging a bad team through the playoffs, then the Broncos trying to slug it out with some of these better teams over the course of maybe even three weeks, like winning three games with what we've seen out of the quarterback. And I know Kansas City was their crowning achievement. He's had some good games over the course of the season. He played well. I went every watched it this morning.

He played well. Extremely well. And he's had other good games this season. But over the course of three weeks when people like Steve Spagnolo or Sean McDermott are going to be game planning for what bothers your quarterback, I don't know. Or you have to play the Rams defense or the Seahawks defense. Of course, if they get all the way to the Super Bowl, absolutely. That's the conversation that we're having.

No, I was just thinking about in the AFC playoffs. But yeah, of course, if you get to the Super Bowl, that's a whole other thing too. So to think that from what we've seen from Bo Nix, to think that he's going to successfully navigate that minefield. And maybe the Broncos really could hold everybody they play in the postseason to 15 points. And you just will lutz your way to it. championship. It's possible, but

you will let's your way to championships, but I mean, it's possible. If Bronco fans weren't pissed off already, that'll get in there. This particular organization has done that before already. I'm trying to, I don't remember this off the top of my head,

but like how many, how many, like what were the Broncos 2015 playoff games like? Like, what were the scores of those games? I mean, I know they held Carolina.

All right. So I'm glad you're bringing this team up because I had something in my back pocket that I wanted to bring out that I think would just bring out that I think would just bring a real clarity to this discussion about the Broncos playoff chances as currently constructed. I had this conversation on another show years ago, and so the numbers were sitting here, and I just pulled them up, and the Broncos fall into this category.

Okay. Since 2014, I don't know why I picked 2014, I think it was just a decade. So since 2014, there have been 44 participants on championship weekend, right? 11 years, four teams. of those 44 teams that have been in the AFC or NFC championship game, three of them had offenses that were outside of the top 10 in EPA per play. Three. Two of them had one of them had an offense that was outside of the top 12 in EPA per play.

Of the three that were outside of the top 10, two of those teams missed the Super Bowl. Only one team with an EPA per play outside of the top 10 since 2014. has won the Super Bowl and even participated in the Super Bowl and it is the 2015 Broncos. It was a special defense. That's it.

Very, I mean, they allowed 15 points per game during that playoff run. I'll go through it. Last year, 2004, Chiefs, Bill, Eagles, commanders, all top 10 in EPA per play. 23, Chiefs Ravens, Lions, Niners. All top 10 in EPA per dropback, all top 11 in EPA per play.

2022, Chiefs, Eagles, Niners, Bengals, all top six in EPA per play, top seven, EPA per dropback. 2021, Chiefs, Bengals, Rams, Niders, all top eight in EPA per dropback. The Chiefs, Rams, and Niners were all top eight in EPA per play. 2020. Buck's, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, all top five in EPA per play

and top five in EPA per drop back. It's like, that's usually how this goes. And even the years where, like, the Packers in 2019, they were 12th in EPA per drop back, but they were top 10 in EPA per play. It's either a dropback or per play, you need to be in there in order to get to and win the Super Bowl. This isn't just like a theoretical thing

when we're trying to shit on the Broncos. and it's not just an anecdotal thing about how hard it is to win a championship constructed this way. The history is there. It's almost impossible to do it unless you have an all-time defense. This defense is very good.

They're like the fourth-rank defense in the league, according to most metrics. That is not going to get you there unless your offense has a crazy spike. There's actually a team we're going to talk about that also is like outside of the top ten and a lot of the offensive metrics. The Eagles are that.

but we at least saw the Eagles do it last year where they're just way more talented. Exactly. It's not hard to imagine the Eagles getting to a place reminiscent of what they looked like in the playoffs last year on offense. It's harder to get there with the Broncos

because they're not as talented and we've never seen them do it before. The Eagles just can't get the parking break off of their sports car, whereas the Broncos are just a minivan. Toyota Tacoma. Yeah, whatever. So, no, like I said,

I can see. see this team being a pain in the ass in the playoffs and maybe beating a team that we enjoy watching a lot more. But all the way to a Super Bowl, I can't see it. This one I think mentally was easier for me to cross off because like if we're listing, if we're including the teams that we like weren't going to talk about at the top, basically 12 teams were having to make a case for off the rip. If I think your team has the worst quarterback of that bunch, I'm just not picking you to be in this exercise.

It's fair. But it did make it hard because I do think their defense is probably the best of this bunch. And so it was like, I understand the history of defenses, but at least in my mind, I was like, well, you have one elite unit. Whereas like, again, when I looked at like the Patriots or the Colts, in my mind, they don't have an elite side of the ball. Whereas at least with the Broncos, I was like, maybe you mess around and win four games based off of that,

even if I don't actually believe that. Okay, so the Broncos were the next team to bring up that we were potentially going to eliminate, I think, for a lot of the reasons that you just said, the quarterback part of it, the quality of the offense part of it. The other four teams involved in this discussion, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions. The three of those teams are definitively,

top 10 offenses. The Ravens are outside of the top 10 for obvious reasons. Lamar missed several games. He's still not even really healthy right now. So we don't have to do it this way. Just because the Broncos were next up logically doesn't mean that we have to eliminate them before talking about any of the other teams. Of the four other teams, the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions, which of those do you

think is at least up for discussion to be replaced by the Broncos in an exercise like this? I will say the only one I didn't even consider whether or not I was going to have them on, was the lions. The lion's eye to me was just like automatic like you're good. Like I know the offense has had some lower lows than they have in previous years, but like the highs are still pretty dang good. They're still mostly consistent and the defense is awesome. Like the defense is really, really good. So like they, I didn't really think about the lions very much. I think that's, I was probably in the same boat. That's really funny because as I was going through it, the lions are probably the lions and the Ravens are the two that I'm most willing to entertain a conversation on.

Really? More than the Packers? More than the Packers? Absolutely. Absolutely. Wow. Absolutely. That's surprising. Why? I didn't think I'd be out Packard on this show. Because, like, I, because the, because the quarterback can kind of do shit sometimes.

Because the quarterback can kind of do shit at times and you have, you have defenders that are capable of, like, swinging things in big moments, you know? Like, you have an A1 pass rusher like Micah Parsons who can, like, deliver for you in moments like that. Proverbs have two of those guys and the reigning defensive player of the year. I like the, I like the Packers' Quarter's. back more than I like the Broncos scorer back. And I can sell myself on the idea. I will say the Packers' offensive line gives me a lot of pause. But like the Packers are going to get Jaden Reed back at some point this season.

Jordan Love looked phenomenal. Like he was pretty awesome. He looked like how he's supposed to look. If he could just play in that mindset for the rest of the season we're cooking, I'm basically just like refusing. If you want to call it refusing to let go on my priors, that's totally fine. like I'm not sold that the like the the Packers still have a ceiling they can reach in my opinion even if it's annoying to keep saying that people are going to assume lose their minds you're talking about you know Jordan Love and the faith you have in Jordan Love and I like this quarterback where do you think Jordan Love ranks an EPA drop back to the season. He's like he's awesome.

He's been there all year. Yeah. Like he's people people are sick of hearing about how good his metrics are relative to what watching the Patrick Packers feels like. And they saw him play one. game on national TV against the Eagles, which is like, all right, man. He's, it was a bad. That Eagles game was bad. And the game of four against the Packer, or the Panthers was not his best.

But like, over the course of the season, he's actually been really efficient, despite, like, you just said, an offensive line that's not playing well, Jaden Reed has missed a lot of the time. They don't know what they're doing with Matthew Golden. Like, it's just like, the fact that the offense has been as good as it is, is to me, a lot of him. Is it, I don't disagree with most of the things that you guys are saying. I feel the same way about Jordan Love I feel much better about him than I do about Bo Nix I don't think that's a crazy thing to say At the same time when I'm looking at these teams

The fact that you like immediately Like the Packers were the other team you didn't really consider Even if I can admit And I do think that the Packers are probably A better team top to bottom right now than either the Chiefs or the Ravens When it comes to something like this I would be much much much more afraid

of leaving the chiefs or Ravens off than I would be about leaving the Packers off. Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. Right? Which, and I don't want to, it hurts my soul to like cape for the Ravens for a month and a half and ditch them now.

But that's kind of where I'm at with the Ravens. Like, you can look at the Ravens right now and you can look at how they're even playing right now with everybody back. And I think be like, ah, this team man got it. But I was literally thinking about this when I was walking to lunch today. I was trying to figure out which team I was going to land on.

I was like, am I really going to sit here and say a Ravens team that's probably going to make the playoffs with most of its roster healthy is not capable of winning the Super Bowl? No fucking chance. Like, there's no way I'm going to put my name on that. You know what's annoying about that, though? Like, other than, I guess, I guess the season opener, and I know, I know Lamar missed time with the hamstring. But, like, it's week 12. Have we seen the Ravens play like a team? team that could win the Super Bowl yet.

But I saw the offense for the last two years before this. That's enough. They're a team where I'm... Where is it? I think that Lamar's been hurt for a good chunk of time and I still don't know how healthy is now. And maybe, listen. And he has six weeks to figure it out though.

And maybe they don't. Maybe we get to the end of the year and this is just the Ravens where the defense is pretty good and the offense never finds itself. The running game has not been nearly as good as it's been over the last couple years. Like, this is not rooted in a lot of. lot of the tangible evidence that we have right now, but I don't think it necessarily has to be. I think sometimes like multiple time MVP quarterbacks, like, that's why it was so easy to flip the Josh Allen switch with this.

It's just like, now, fuck it. Like, he's in there. But Josh, Josh Allen has done Josh Allen shit like several times this year. That's fair. He's coming off a six touchdown game. Yeah. The bills have across the season, the bills have, they have looked like a juggernaut at times. With the Ravens, we're just going solely on vibes, which is.

part of the reason why I came in here with this approach where I was like, we still got seven weeks of regular season to play. It's as wide open as we can remember in recent memory. Half of the best rosters or half the best records in the league are rosters we don't really trust. It's all going to come down to vibes anyway. So like I said, I mean, it's, I'm tempted to take the Ravens off because we just haven't seen it from them.

But the fear is definitely that they could look scary by January. fifth. It's a conundrum. The Ravens right now, per our playoff simulator on the athletic, so hilarious, because they are still one game back in the division. Austin Mock, if you guys have not checked out the playoff simulator, encourage you to do so.

It's a fun thing to play around with. They have an 81% chance to win the division right now. 81%. They play him twice, and that team now has, the Steelers now have either Aaron Rogers with one hand or Mason Rudolph, which I think the way the Ravens defense is

playing right now is probably going to handle that pretty okay. And that's also part of this is that the fact that the Ravens, if you look at these numbers, have an 80% chance to host a home playoff game, that makes it easier for me to just kind of hand wave and be like, nah, they're in. If this is the tiebreaker, like, that's enough for me. I also like a very, I don't even think this is a good way to do this, but if I just grabbed, of all the eight teams that we're talking about here, if you just grab the three best players from each team and like put them against each other, the Ravens have the best trio with

Lamar, Kyle Hamilton, and Rochwan Smith. And like, those are the star players that can win you playoff games. And Derek Henry is still on that team. And Derek Henry is still playing really well. I feel really good about the overall direction of the defense, by the way. Like really good about the overall direction of the defense. I think if you look at the past few weeks since they made the Kyle Hamilton move, and I think it was Jeff Seariebeck on Scoop City was talking about this.

And I thought it was a really good point. He was just saying that having Kyle Hamilton next to Roquan Smith also slows Rochuan Smith down. Because for the first time in a very long time, he's playing next to an experienced player in that spot versus all of the rookies and kind of youngish guys the Trent Simpsons of the world and Teddy Buchanan, who's been good in stretches this year. But it's just a different sort of settling down calming force for him

and you've seen his best ball. The Draymont Jones thing, I think it's not the J-Lin Phillips trade, but I think you've seen some of the things that he's bringing to the table. And so I think I feel pretty good, like pretty damn good about the seven-game future of the Ravens defense. And if that's the case,

Am I really that worried about the offense that it's going to be a disqualifying factor here? The offense quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson. I'm going to pivot in a direction that has nothing to do with what we're talking about because it might help us come to a conclusion. Smokebomb. We already did. What? We came to a conclusion?

We have all four of the teams. We do? Yes. Why? Hang on. Why are we so, why are we not discussing the merits of the Lions? why the Lions shouldn't be in here? Why are the Lions

not worth talking about is like is their case deserving? They have a top five offense and I have enough institutional faith. And they're a top six defense. That's what I meant to say. Sorry, the defense is playing exceptionally well. The offense is highs are still good enough.

I really trust the coaching staff generally. Like I think Dan Campbell like I just, there's a lot of institutional faith that I have there that I'm good there. Over the course of the year, the Lions have played what, four or five teams that are part of

this conversation. They looked incredible against the Ravens all the way back in week three when the Ravens defense had no idea what it was doing. Against Green Bay, Kansas City, Philadelphia. What did that look like? What did that look like when they went up against like what we view as like the class of the NFL? So here's the Philadelphia game was gross.

Unless they play Philly again in the playoffs, that's not going to. Which they might. But like, other than them running up against Philly, the condition. for that game where Jared Goff had to play outside when it was like 45 degrees. Most of the other teams are not going to. A playoff game? My good friends and the lions

probably aren't going to have home. If they win their division, I know you haven't spent a ton of time here during this time of the year, but I just want to let you know, it doesn't get warmer from here on out. But they can win their division and mostly be fine unless they run into Philly in the conference championship, which at that point, whatever.

Winning your division without being the one seed only guarantees you one game. I guess. So the other LA. You could go to L.A. I just, I feel like there's a good chance you're going to have to play. It is. It's a pretty good chance.

So inside. Exactly. I worry that the lion's offensive line is not the overwhelming force that it used to be. I think that's right. Well. But is that enough to ding them that far as part of a conversation like this? It could be. All right.

So do you want to open the idea of, the Lions being off and the Broncos being in. Is that our only... Or you could bring the Colts back if you really want to. So right now, we have four teams that are in, okay? Okay. Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Bills. We agreed that...

I guess I was thrown off because we didn't officially, at least, and I don't think, we didn't officially make a decision on Green Bay or Kansas City. We don't need to. All we needed to do is eliminate four other teams. And the four teams we eliminated were the Bucks, Patriots, and Broncos. Okay. That's why when you just eliminated the Broncos,

I was like, oh man, that was really fast. Oh, okay. So we are left with the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions as the other four teams. Are you comfortable with that? Yes. Yeah, I am. You were comfortable leaving the Broncos off in favor of the Packers and the Lions, the Chiefs, and the Ravens.

Yeah. I think too. I think a lot of people are going to be mad and be like, well, these are the teams you thought were good going into the season. And it's like, yeah. Like, I, there's, none of the number of, of them have like disqualified themselves from the way I felt about them going in. Okay.

There is a team we have not discussed at all and considering whether we should include them or not. What about the team that might not make the playoffs? The Kansas City Chiefs. Yes. Find somebody else. Find somebody else to write the Chiefs off on November 19th. It's not going to be me. This was my thing.

Like, Liz, I understand that of the teams that we're talking about, they have the lowest possible chance of getting into the playoffs. Right now. Let's go back to the playoffs. Yes. Running back. 56% chance. A coin flips chance for a team that we're saying might win the Super Bowl is pretty tough. However, I came into this exercise being pretty comfortable,

believing that I basically had de facto seven seats to toy with and then just giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs the other one. I was okay with that. The Chiefs are, I'm perfectly comfortable not having a firm rationale on the Chiefs. But by the way, like, what, I mean, I'm in the middle of taking notes for the preview show, so I have this right in front of me. Like their fifth in total DVOA, their third in offensive DVOA. Yeah, they're better than they were last year.

Literally the only reason the chiefs are quote unquote struggling is because they haven't figured out how to win a one score game. That's all. Because it's not a real skill. That is a valid point. Unless they lost all of that skill from last year when they were winning all of them. Yeah.

For the duration of the Mahomes era, they win 73% of their one score games. and they're over five right now. It's all coming back. I mean, no. I, and look, I get it. They could fall below 500 on Sunday. It's theoretically possible,

but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt until it's mathematically not doable. And if that is, if that becomes a reality, then we can revisit it then. But if they lose on Sunday, playing with the simulator here, it goes to 40% that they make the playoffs. 4-0.

If they win, it goes to 66%, 67. I would still rather have a chief team that only has a 40% chance to even get in than like the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. The Chief's lost to the Broncos three days ago. Yep, that's fine. You're okay with that? Yep.

Yeah. This ain't about week 11. This is about doing it in January. When the Broncos win the Super Bowl, what are we going to do? move on. We'll all have to do the wins pool bet.

We'll all have to dress up like the barrel man from the famous Denver Superfan. Yeah, if the Broncos go to the Super Bowl, you all have to pay that off. No, no, no. It's not go to the Super Bowl. That's not what the table was about. It's not winning the Super Bowl.

You have to pay it off like next year. Yeah, like the Combine. Or the Combine, yeah, yeah. All right. I'm not willing to commit to this yet. But if the Broncos do win the Super Bowl, maybe we should have to do something stupid at the draft. We're all going to be in person.

I'm not betting to the will of Broncos fans. What? I'll do it. What are we talking about? I don't have that much self-esteem anyway. Like, if the Broncos win the Super Bowl, I'll get goofy with it. I don't care. It's also at this point, like, okay, I'll commit to this right now.

Okay. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, I will buzz my head for the draft show. Amazing. I will shave my head for the draft show with the Broncos win the Super Bowl. I'll do it. I'm going to have to find some. You guys are, it's fine. I will, I will, I will, I'm not getting synced.

I'm not going to pick it just because it's too much work. But I will, with a, like, no guard razor, I will buzz my head the week of the draft if the Broncos win the Super Bowl. I'm sure I could come up with something with high stakes that doesn't involve my hair that I would do for Broncos fans. My wife always gives you shit about, she's like, what if it doesn't grow back? I was like, I don't think that's how it works. I'm pretty sure I agree.

I agree with her. It's not worth the risk. Because we're the same age. So that's the thing is as you're getting into your late 30s, the idea if you cut it all off that it wouldn't come back, it is a little bit scary. This is all I got going for me. It's like half of what I got going for me.

So no, I'll come up with something else, though, Broncos fans. You can, if this happens. At this point, there's nothing we can do to endear ourselves to them anyway. No. So why worry about it? I think that's kind of the point that we've reached. Fair enough. I still don't like the idea of bending to them, but that's fine.

Okay. So our eight teams at the table, on November 19th pre-week 12 are Philadelphia Eagles, the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buffalo Bills, the Green Bay Packers, people are going to love that one, Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions. So the top three seeds in the AFC, if the playoffs started today, are not at the revised table. Three teams currently not in a playoff position as we sit here today as well. And the, yeah, the, and the Chiefs and Ravens and Lions.

The three and four seeds in the NFC, if the playoffs started today, off the table. I feel fine about that, though. Listen, people are going to be real. You guys are going to be a lot of regrets when the seven and three Chicago Bears go on a run. Don't say that because I tried to sell you on it. I tried to bring the bears to the table and you didn't want anything to do with it. And the Jaguars win 12 games and get there. There's nothing.

I benefit from that in no way. In absolutely no way. All right. That is all we've got for today. we will be back on Friday with our week 12 preview. Not a great slate, but a couple really good games. A couple fun Sicko Street nominees that we're going to dig through. So looking forward to that one.

Hope you guys are as well. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.