The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The TAFS 2024 Wins Pool Draft

Episode Date: August 20, 2024

Glory and humiliation...it's what friendly competition is all about. We bring both together in the annual TAFS Wins Pool. Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen selected seven teams apiece with the goal of assembling the group that combines for the most wins this season. This year's twist...their final two picks had to be teams projected by the betting markets to win fewer than seven games. The winner will achieve personal glory. The loser will suffer the humiliation of paying off a bet on Radio Row during Super Bowl week. Friendly competition is the best, isn't it?Host: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. For those of you listen to the podcast last year, you know that we did a wins pool over the course of the entire season. Me and Nate each pick five teams. The team had the fewest wins at the end of the year. Had a punishment.

I had to wear a hot dog suit for an entire day on Radio Row, which was good for content, but not good for my self-esteem. So we decided to run it back this year. We're doing it with Derek. We're going to do five teams again. The twist is. We're also going to pick two bad teams. We'll talk about how we classify bad when we get there.

So seven teams apiece that we are going to have to ride with the entire season. This was a blast. Let's get to it. Joining me now. It's my co-host. We're a fan of football show. It's Derek Klaus and Derek, how you doing, man? I'm doing good.

I'm doing really good. So, I mean, I only care about two sports. One of them, obviously, is football. We both work in this, so I think that's the easy one. And we're in preseason mode here with football. The only other sport I care about is League of Legends, and they're in postseason mode. And my team just won the game.

They were not supposed to win. So this weekend, I actually feel pretty good. Look at you. Yeah. We're digging through preseason stuff right now. Just the heads up. We're recording this on Sunday because of my travel schedule. I'm actually going to Minnesota to hang out with the Vikings for a couple days.

So if we miss anything that comes out on Monday, news-wise, that is why we didn't hit it on this show. What we're doing today is similar to something we did last year. We're doing our draft for the wins pool. If you guys did not listen to the show last year, you're unfamiliar. me and Nate, we picked five teams each, and the loser at the end who had fewer wins total by the end of the regular season had to wear a hot dog suit on Radio Row for a day. That was me.

I wore one all day, and it was very embarrassing, and I think that I really enjoyed doing it. I really enjoyed doing the wins pool was a good thing to follow all year. We're going to be doing something similar this year, but just a tiny bit different. We're both going to pick five teams, five teams we think will be good. But the little twist on this is that we're also. going to have to pick two teams that are slated to win fewer than seven games this season. Here are those teams. The Giants, the Raiders, Washington, Tennessee, Carolina, Denver, and New England. We're doing this for two reasons. One, more teams means that it's going to be

competitive longer into the season. It's going to be closer, ideally, as we get a little bit deeper in, and one of us isn't going to be winning about five to seven games with three weeks ago. Two, it's disgusting to have to pick one of these teams. And I really want us to have to agonize about choosing which of these two we want to have to ride with the whole season. So there are layers to this, but I do think it's going to add a fun little wrinkle to this year's version. See, that's the thing. I thought walking in I was only going to have to agonize over maybe my fourth and fifth round pick. Like, do I want to go for this team I think can win a division or just a really good wildcard team, yada, yada, yada.

No, now I have to dig in the dumpsters for a team that I think might not be horrible among teams that are probably all going to do. going to be horrible. It's not going to be fun, but I do think that it's a worthwhile addition to this year's version of the exercise. We also have a punishment that we have agreed upon for Super Bowl week on Radio Row again. Like last year, we're not going to tell you guys what it is because I think that takes away from some of the fun. After the hot dog suit, I hope you guys trust that it's a worthwhile punishment that's worth waiting on. So I hope we've earned a little bit of the benefit of the doubt. This is like the Ravens' Offensive line situation. Just trust that we're going to figure this out on the other side of it and it's

going to be okay. I mean, we've got what, three, four years of organizational stability here? I think, yeah, it's worth trusting. It's one year, but I think it worked out well enough that we should have a little bit of faith from the listeners. Before we get into the draft, before we get into our teams, a couple quick bits of news we did want to hit. Earlier today, on Sunday, the Raiders announced that Gardner Minshu is going to be their starting quarterback to begin the 2024. And you guys, you and I both have been on the record about this. I think we kind of each wanted Aiden O'Connell to start just out of curiosity just because it was a little bit of something different.

But it looks like Gardner-Mitchie's going to get the first crack at this. How do you feel about this? And feel free to hold back a little bit if you don't want to give too much away about your late draft strategy. So at first, I was like, I don't want to even really get that up in arms about it because Aiden O'Connell is not really in that tier of prospect of young player where I'm like, this is a huge deal. said about? Yeah, like it's not, I don't really care all that much. But again, it would have been

nice to go see him. I think he at least, you know, Gardner-Minch who's a known quantity. And even if that can be quarterback 25, I would like to maybe see if Aiden O'Connell could be quarterback 20. I don't know if he can. There's a mystery box element to it for sure. That's worth exploring. Exactly. But then the more I thought about it and the more I looked at it, probably regardless of who started week one, we're getting at least five games at both of these guys at some point, right? Like, regardless, whether it's injury or they just want to flip-flop or like so aiden o'Connell could have started the first six weeks and we probably would have got minchu or we're going to get the vice versa now so the more i thought about it i was like i'll get them both who cares i know that it hasn't been a perfect preseason

for the bears but this just reminds me of years where the team had traded for nick foals and then the next year they signed andy dalton and those were the sorts of quarterback competitions that we were looking at i don't really have any feelings or opinions about what the raiders do a quarterback between those two guys. My only reaction to this is I'm so glad that I'm removed from this sort of nonsense that I don't have to deal with these sorts of decisions or the hemming and hauling that really doesn't matter in the end that has to go on at this position for organizations that are in this spot.

As a first year coach, no less, in Antonio Pierce, like, this is your first time on the job and you're picking between like $20 million Gardner Minshu that you, I don't even know if you signed off on that contract and like a late round rookie. quarterback who is like kind of interesting but not really in the same tier as most of the other guys. So tough spot to be in if you're Antonio Pierce. Yeah, I've said this. I think the floor for the Raiders offense, no matter how you slice that is pretty low. I mean, I'm excited about watching Brock Bowers. I do think that the skill position players in the best possible timeline can lift this group and make it watchable. But it's tough sledding when this is the decision that you're having to

make. So we'll see how it all unfolds. Do you think by the end of the season, Devante Adams talks better about Gardner Minchie than he did about Jimmy? I think he has to, right? I mean, the bar is not very high. I haven't watched all of that, but I'm not surprised at all. I mean, I'm just based on how Jimmy played and based on just some of the complete non-grasp he had on so many of the things they were asking him to do within that offense. I mean, that was disgusting.

It was like one of the worst offenses to watch throughout the entire season. I do think that there is a chance they get better quarterback play from some combination of Gardner, Minchew, and Aidan O'Connell than they got for huge stretch. of last year, but again, the bar is not very high. Yeah, that's my thing, though. I think regardless of the quarterback, I'm on Devante watch here. Other bit of news from today, the Minnesota Vikings signed Stefan Gilmore to a one-year deal up to $10 million with $7 million guaranteed. Obviously, I mean, it's been a horrible offseason for the Vikings at that position specifically. Curry Jackson tragically lose him

in a car accident. Mackay Blackman, who they drafted last year, tears his AC. They really needed cornerback help going into the year. And a guy like Stefan Gilmore, even at age 33, is probably the best option for them, given their current depth chart. It's understandable based on where they are right now. I don't know exactly what they're trying to accomplish this year. The idea of going out and getting a 33-year-old corner for a year when you're starting Sam Darnold and you're kind of in a transition period, that part of it is just a little bit curious. But I don't necessarily think there are that many guys on the roster who,

are young that you're blocking from getting opportunities here. So that's the only reason I think I'd be a little bit upset about this is like, why would you just give a young guy a shot? The problem is they don't have many young guys to give them shots. This really just seems like a declaration that Caleb Evans probably isn't the answer for them. So now we're getting a trio of corners potentially that's Stefan Gilmore, Shaq Griffin at the stage of his career, and Byron Murphy. It's not a strength by any means, but this did feel like a move they almost had to make,

given the current state of the depth chart. Yeah, I think when you're coming off a year like they had and your roster is in the spot that Minnesota's is in, you probably want to give young guys as many chances as possible. But I almost think that they're kind of in the opposite mode where it's like they kind of want to see how far they can stretch or how much more, like how can they shore up this defensive scheme? And I think just bringing in a guy who is stable like Stefan Gilmore is probably the best way to go about that and he was probably the best guy left on the market for them to go do that.

I think Gilmore played pretty well last year. He's obviously lost a step from what he was at his absolute peak. But I thought when he had to play and had to be the number one guy last year, he was still a pretty good guy. So if they run as many blitzes, I don't know if he can cover as much ground doing that. But I assume that's going to get toned down now that the roster is a little bit better and they don't have to just throw eight bodies at the problem every play. What I'm curious about, I was talking to a jam recently that was in the cornerback market.

We were talking about Gilmore. He's like, he doesn't run like he used to. And that worries me for a 33-year-old guy, not in a week. week one, but what he'll look like by week 17, week 18, which I think is a worthwhile consideration. The difference here is when he was with the Colts in 2022, they were number one in the league in the amount of single high coverages they ran, number one, which should not surprise us at all in the Gus Bradley world.

Last year, the Cowboys were number two in the percentage of single high coverage as they ran. In 2023, the Vikings were 28th in the NFL and the amount of single high coverage that they ran. So what you're asking of him in this defense is going to be physically less demanding than it has been over the last couple years. And you would hope that that lack of top end speeds and speed in being 33 years old might matter less in this scheme than it has in the last two that he's played in. So that's kind of my read on it is that maybe we're putting a little less on him and the results can be okay even at the stage of his career. I think that's a good point. I also think,

though, if Brian Flores can truly get his way, he's probably going to try to go back to a single high world and play a lot of man coverage, because that's what he's the world he came from. But But it's not like they're better set up to do that now than they were at this time last year. Definitely not. And yeah, and yeah, Gilmore's only getting older. So if he was losing a step two years ago, I don't know if he's going to be able to keep up in man coverage now. That's my thought. And you look at this current depth chart, and it does seem like they'll do what they can to hide some of those guys.

I know that they spent some money in free agency, but it's not like they spent it on the secondary. I mean, this group is still pieced together. They got pass rushers, so they don't have to throw eight guys at the problem. Yes, then that's fair, but that doesn't mean you necessarily will play more man coverage than you did a year ago. So we'll see how they deploy him, but I'm hoping they let him play a little bit of old man game where they're not asking him to run stride for stride and man coverage against some of these receivers that they're going to have to play. All right, let's get into this. I gave you the choice earlier today about how you wanted to approach this. I said you could have the number one pick in the normal draft with the good teams or you could have the number one pick.

in the awful draft with the bad teams, you elected to have the number one pick among the good teams. What is the thinking behind that? I looked at all of the bad teams and said, you know what? I'm just going to kind of let the chips fall where they may there. If I don't get my pick of the litter on those, that's completely fine.

I would much rather have who I think is the best team in the league. And so that was pretty much the thinking behind it. That's fair. For me, I actually was happy you that you did this because I feel, I was going to say I feel, I feel like there's a bigger separation in my mind between the good bad teams and the bad bad teams. Maybe that's hubris that will come back to bite me.

But I think that the separation at the top with the good teams, I think there's four of them clustered together that I would be okay with. So I don't mind that you chose this direction. I'm actually pretty happy about it. Okay, yeah, I don't know. I think our second pick in the bad teams one is going to be the one that really makes me mad or really makes me dig deep.

The first one, we'll see how it goes. There's just no good answer. We'll talk about when we get there. There's no good answer. All right, you wanted the number one pick in the good teams draft. You get it. Who is your number one pick? The Kansas City Chiefs.

I'm going to take Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes against the universe. How crazy is that? And honestly, none of like the preseason. You're taking the best quarterback in the league when he has a top five defense and a bunch of new receivers and a decent offensive line. Shocking. I can't believe that you're going this round.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champions. And that's the thing. the quality of some of these preseason clips we've seen where Xavier Worthy is running wide open and Pat is hitting him and Pat is doing all this behind the back stuff. I could have never seen any of that and I still would have said the Chiefs because it's Patrick Mahomes and they won two Super Bowls in a row. All this other stuff where it actually kind of looks good already and kind of looks nice and promising. That's just the cherry on top. That's just the finisher. I would have done this either way. Yeah, as you should have. Again, the defense part of this is what does it for me.

The fact that now we have proof that they have one of the best defenses in the league and the best player in the league and a top five play caller in the league. All these things point to the chiefs being the correct decision here. So when I seated this to you, I knew that I was essentially giving away the Kansas City Chiefs in this exercise. And I was okay with that. You know, you're new here. I'm trying to be generous and how I'm handling this stuff. So this is a yeah, this is a timeline I was willing to live with. So I'll be honest with you. When I was looking at the number two pick, I was between a couple teams. And I'm going to take the San Francisco 49ers because I just think that the heights of that

offense and what they're capable of, we're recording this before we know what's going to happen with Brandon Ayuk. It does feel like there's a little bit of bad vibes potential with this Niners team. And that's part of why I was a little hesitant about this. But at the same time, I just think that what they've done year in and year out and the juggernaut potential of what they are on offense combined with, even if you think they're going to take a small step back on defense. We both believe they're going to be a top 10 unit on that side of the ball. So this isn't the most interesting pick, but I do think that it feels like the safest

second pick, even if there is some unrealized downside potential that there maybe might not have been over the last couple years. If it makes you feel better, that's who I was going to pick if I had the second pick. Okay. Okay. Good. And honestly, everything you said would have been like copy-paste what I was going to say. They feel like the safest despite some of how questionable some of the vibes are. Like you have Super Bowl hangover. You have the whole I-Uk situation. Trent Williams has been holding out, which will solve itself, but it's still like-

And McCaffrey's hurt. Again, it's, I don't want to say the team I was choosing between it. But like it was closer than I expected it to be when I started looking at the list given all of this stuff. But were you removed from them being a historically efficient offense? And it's not like those guys aren't coming back. There are some lingering questions about when we'll see them and at what capacity. But Ayuk is really the only one. And at this point, I just expect him to be back.

And he's in a contract year. Even if he's a little bit ruffled, there's still a ton of incentive for him to play well this year. So I think that they inevitably figure it out, even with a new defensive coordinator, even with some of these questions, it's just the bet I feel best making here. And that's the thing. We talked about it on the defense show. maybe the defense ends up closer to like 10th, 11, 13th, something like that this year. Not quite the top five, top seven peaks they've been.

Okay, well, the offense is locked into top four so long as they have most of their guys healthy. So they'll four 30 points in a game. It's probably fine. They can regress significantly and still be the best offense in the league. I mean, by a lot and still be the best offense in the league. So that's the type of bet I want to make. I want to bet on really good offenses and everything else just kind of falling into place. And that's what the Niners seem to be for me, even with some of the questions here.

All right, this is when it gets interesting, though, because I think you could go a lot of different directions here or a few different directions here. I kind of think I know what you're going to do, but I want to see if you surprise me. I'm curious to see if this is a surprise. I'm actually going to go with the Detroit Lions on this one day. Yeah, I kind of knew you wanted them. This was like a snipe job. I kind of had a feeling you were going to be it on the Lions.

So my assumption here when I was stacking it up is that the Lamar love would overtake you here and that you would go with Lamar because you would want to ride with him the entire season. All this tells me is that you're not the Lamar true believer that you pretend to be. Hey, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I had a couple of teams here and I was just, you know, I think the road for the Lions is a smidgen easier, that's all. I think if they're both the same quality of teams, the road is a little bit easier, that's all. But the Lions, I mean, they're probably also going to be a top five, top six offense again. I mean, they have been basically since, like, basically since Jared Gov and Ben Johnson started to understand each other.

And they've been like a top five offense. Honestly, that's a great point to make, though, because we've talked about this a couple times at this team. The continuity is rare. I was with Jared Goff last week. We were talking about this and just how important it's been that him and Ben have been able to continue this relationship. and just their mutual understanding of what he wants out of every given call. This is the type of thing. I've talked to a couple of quarterbacks about this recently,

where when you can have this time on task with one person as your play caller, and you can consistently build on it, I think we underrate the importance of that. And I do think that it has allowed this offense to kind of step into a different tier, a different stratosphere, and it's all coming back. We're talking about Kevin Zitler for Jonah Jackson, and James and Williams coming in. for Josh Reynolds.

Those are the moving pieces that we're talking about here. Everything else, you're riding with what it was before. And even if we have some hesitations about those, I still think that the overall foundation of it and the integral pieces are the same. And I think that that's why this bet is worth making. Oh, and here's the thing. I think everything you said before about Josh Reynolds being like a perfect player for this offense is absolutely spot on.

I think I'm kind of buying James and Williams, though, because I'll start by saying, I loved him as a prospect. I thought he was awesome. The speed, the route running, like he just, it seemed like he had a lot to him. And he just didn't seem like he was all the way there early in, early in his career. And then he had the injuries. I think by the end of last year, they kind of started treating him like a real wide receiver. Like, he was catching some tough dig routes over the middle and stuff.

And is he going to do that at the same rate that Reynolds was doing? No, but if he can do 70% of what Reynolds was doing there and then also be the fastest player on the field, all right, we might be cooking. And so I think that's right. I'm kind of about it. I think that is the profile that they need. If they could add a different dimension with him on the field while still getting enough of the other stuff, that's the best case scenario. And I wouldn't necessarily, I don't think that's off the table at all.

All right. So this is tough because I kind of thought that I would get the Lions here. I was going to say, are you still going to give me Lamar one way or the other? Yes. I'm going to go with the Texans. Oh, okay. I mean, that's who I had. If you didn't take him, I was going to take him.

So, I mean, I get it. I don't really have a good reason for why I'm doing this. I think it's just, I feel like they could be one of the teams this year. Every year there's one team that takes that huge step forward and just kind of everything falls into place. And they can win 12, 13 games. Even though they're playing a first place schedule, division-wise, of all the good teams in the league, I think you could make an argument they probably play in the weakest division. Like, if you stacked up the top 10 in this list, I think they probably play in the weakest division of all of them.

So I just think that they have a chance to be a high, high level offense with Stroud going into year two. And I really like the promise of the defense. How did you like that Jalen Petrie pick in the preseason, by the way, with him playing down in the box? Have you seen his snap counts, by the way? No. He's been at slot corner or in the box on like 85% of his preseason snaps. Dude, you nail that one. You nail that one.

Like, let's just put him. Let's just, if he's going to be a car crash merchant, let's let's go put him closer to it. Let's go let him do it. I'm a little bit worried that I'm just chasing like the shiny new thing here and that I should go with their defending MVP and a team that has shown an ability to be a top one defense. Even with Mike McDonnell going, they're still probably going to be a top five defense. But I just want to be on the Texans train, man. No, but that's the thing. How many head coach quarterback combos would you rather have than those two right now? Like regardless of the rest of the rest of any other roster. It's a great way to frame it. Like other than Pat and Andy, like you can, you.

can almost start the argument right after that. And I think that's a great point, but also there's runway for so many of these young guys on this team. Like with that Stingley pick, and I don't want to be too intoxicated by one-off moments in the preseason, but you saw flashes of that last year from him. Will Anderson takes a step forward in year two. Daniel Hunter is now on this team. I'm in, man.

Like, Tank Dell can be even better than he was last year, potentially. The offensive line was a disaster. I do think that in the right scenario where everything falls into place for this team, they could be the number two seat in the AFC. I do think that there is enough of a void in that conference specifically where that could potentially happen. I don't think that's crazy at all. That's why, like I said, if you didn't take him here, I was going to do it. So you have, so far, you have the Chiefs and the Lions, right?

Yep. And I have the Niners and the Texans. Yep. Okay. That leaves me, Lamar. That leaves me, Lamar. I get the best of both words. I really can't believe I'm letting you do this.

This is a mistake from day one for me. I'm going to come back to regret this so bad. Maybe I'm getting away with crimes. This is so great for me. I was I basically, to me, I had, there are like six or seven teams that I was going to feel good about either way. But to me, there was a group of four where I kind of felt like I felt really good about them.

And now I have all of them except for the Niners. So I feel pretty okay here. But the Ravens, man, it's really just the questions on defense that would hold them back from being a 13 win team or whatever. And, you know, we talked about it on the defense show. I'm just not all that worried that it's going to be that big of the problem. Wait a second. Wait a second. It's just the questions on defense. We're not going to mention the offensive line whatsoever. Okay. The offensive line is a problem. But again, I'm going to Lamar pill myself and like look past that for the time being,

even though that is definitely a concern and a problem I have with this team. But I'll Lamar pill myself for now. If it becomes a problem in September, I'm going to feel really bad about this bit. I don't want to mention the Ravens Offensive Line for the 14th podcast that we've done in a row so far this off season. I do want to say Jeff Sarabek, who covers the Ravens for us, wrote about this last night, Saturday night. It was a really good piece just about the considerations on both sides and why the Ravens think of themselves a certain way. There's a certain level of arrogance and we'll figure this out. We've done it before.

And it's hard to argue with that. They probably deserve to think that way based on their history, but that doesn't mean that there's any less risk and any less writing on them being right about this. So I would go check that out. Jeff does a phenomenal job covering the Ravens Forest. If you're a Ravens fan and don't read him, that would be very surprising. But even if you're not, I think it'll be a really good look on just how they're considering that whole situation. All right, this is where it becomes messy. Yes. I think that I think you can make an argument that there's like a tear break after the Texans. Some people might say it's after the Ravens, but I clearly don't think that, considering I took Houston first. Now, I think you've got to start playing a little bit of game theory and trying to figure out, right, who's playing who.

Like, this is when it actually starts to creep in. So I could pick the Packers, but they play the Texans and the Niners this year. Okay. I could pick the Dolphins. They also play the Texans and the Niners this year. Where I'm going with this is I'm going to take the Bengals. No, I don't think that's crazy. I think there were two teams here that based on schedule, I was like, I think, I don't know if they're better than the other teams I have behind them, but based purely on schedule, I was going to bump them up like a quarter of a tier.

That's why I did it. So if I didn't get the Ravens, I was going to go with the Bengals here to avoid the, there are weeks where you just can't get a win. After having done this last year, I didn't enjoy that whatsoever. So I'm trying to avoid that when possible. And the Bengals, they play the Ravens and the Chiefs. Those are the good teams that the Bengals play this year. So I have no similar opponents when I'm looking at Cincinnati. So the fact that it was close, that's what was going to make the tiebreaker.

And so even if I do think there are a couple teams that are probably better than them when you look at quality of the roster, that's why I felt okay doing this. If you have Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, some of the other pieces like T. Higgins, and then you also have what is like a bottom three schedule in the NFL. They'll probably win at least 10 games, man. That's it. But the Joe Burrow injury thing, that's real. That burned me last year.

I think I took the Bengals first in this exercise last year, which in retrospect was just horrifying. But him getting hurt is a real thing. You have to consider that when you're picking this team. But I just think this offense has a chance to be like a top three unit. Don't you feel slightly better about that now that we've seen Jake Browning actually play not the worst football? And so if the schedule is going to be even worse, but if the schedule is going to be even worse and he's played okay, it's like, that's true. If Joe misses five, it's not the end of the world here.

That's true. But now, he's coming into the season healthy for the first time, and God knows how long. So the fact that I did this after he had the calf injury last year is just the one of the worst decisions I've ever made. It's just one of those things where it's like some team has to sneak up on us a little bit. And at this time last year, we had serious questions about what the Chief's offense was going to look like. Those questions weren't unfounded, by the way. They had like real struggles over the course of the season. They weren't the number one seat in the AFC, but the defense was so good that it was.

would have warranted picking the chiefs first. But here, I just think that it's muddled enough in this range. And if you look at common opponent and you look at schedule, I do think that this might be the best bet here. Yeah. So you're up here at seven, who you got. All right. So this, this to me, this whole tier, there are like five or six teams at this point that I think are mostly the same quality of team, but I'm going to pick the one that has the easiest schedule, the easiest road. and a team that, even if I have some questions, has basically always won in the regular season, and that's the Dallas Cowboys. I was wondering what you were going to do with them.

I don't disagree with this at all, by the way. I think it's a similar set of considerations. It's kind of similar to the Niners in a sense where it's like, all right, there are some bad vibes here. Do I really feel great about betting on Mike McCarthy? Not really. Do I love reshuffling the offensive line, even if some of the younger guys like Guyton and BB do look solid in the preseason. Do I feel great about where the defense is at? I don't know.

They might fall off a little bit. But I don't know, man. You give me Dak Prescott and C.D. Lamb. He's probably going to win double-digit games with a relatively soft schedule. It's not like a cakewalk like the Bengals, but it's not a tough schedule by any means. I mean, this division alone gives you some easy ones. So I'm perfectly fine taking Dak Prescott to win double-digit games. What do you think the disaster potential actually is?

Like, what do you think the chances are that this team wins like seven games this year? Do you think they're overstated or do you think that's actually on the table? Because I can't quite figure out how I feel about that. I actually, that's the thing. I don't think the floor is that low. I just don't think they have like Super Bowl ceiling anymore. Whereas like last year, I think at their best ball, they were a Super Bowl team. Dak was playing incredible ball.

The defense was really explosive, had some firepower. I don't know if they have the high end firepower anymore in some of the depth on the defensive line. But I mean, when you have DAC and CD like that alone probably gets you to seven wins, let alone some of the other great players like Micah. And then the more I watched the offensive line, I think maybe a month ago I was more worried about it. I feel fine about where they're going to be at, especially with a player as good as Dak.

I think that's right. Guyton has played well enough in the preseason that it probably eases some of your concerns about how well he's going to hold that down with Tyrone Smith leaving. I do think that there's potential for the defense to be a little bit messy, especially early in the season,

as they transition to an entirely new scheme and entirely due mindset with Mike Zimmer. Mike Zimmer is a professional. There's probably a good chance by the end they'll figure it out. So I think that's right. Their band of outcomes is probably a little bit narrower, even if their ceiling is lower than it's been in years past. But with something like this, if they can be a 10-win winner of the NFC East, getting them seventh, like, that's totally fine. You feel pretty good about that.

Yeah, I was perfectly good with that one. All right. This is where it actually gets weird. So I actually, the two teams I'm picking between here, I actually had a hundred, higher than the Bengals in my rankings. And I got my big board. I only didn't pick them because of schedule reasons. So I'm actually just going to go back and pick the team that I think is just going to be the best of all of these.

And I'm going to go with the Green Bay Packers. There's a chance that the Packers are awesome this year. Like there are a lot of questions, defensive scheme, still a lot of young pieces. But if you can project a reasonable step forward for that past catching crew, which I absolutely think that you can. Christian Watson is the fourth best receiver on this team. That's a good place to be. It's a really good place to be. Their offensive line, you know, you drop Jordan Morgan in there at right guard.

It's still young. You know, there aren't a lot of proven commodities, but I just think that you have, speaking of faith in organizations to figure that shit out, I mean, they've done that year in and year out. And I think that they have a lot of talent to work with among that group. I think there's flexibility there. And I've said this. I'm on board with the defense.

I'm all in. I think that in the sense that I think they could take a massive step, a diet version of what the Browns did on defense last year, where you go from being a bottom eight unit to a top 10 unit. I don't need them to be the best defense in the league, but if they're a top five offense again and they're a top 10-ish defense the way that I think they can, I have to pick them here. I have to pick them over the other teams that are available.

So even though they play the Niners, they play the Texans, I still think that this is the way I want to go. with us. And you're going to run into some clashes at some point. Yeah. There's going to be like in the fifth round like you're going to have clashes. I think the thing I've come around with too on the skill players, inevitably somebody will get better, right? Whether it's wicks, read one of the tight ends, whatever. I've come around to the point where even if none of them get better and they just don't have the brain dead mistakes they had for the first 10 weeks of last season, it's a top five offense again. Like they don't even have to really get better. They just have to not have the mistakes that they were

having. I will say, Jordan Love was running hot in the back half of last season. Maybe he close down a little. They need to be better playing and play out than they were over the back half of last year. But this was the youngest offense in the league. It was the youngest group of skill position players we'd ever seen. So I do think it's there. And Matt Mufour showed us last year, we should bet on this dude. We should believe in this dude. So this is a belief in him. This is a belief in the quarterback and a belief that I do think that they have enough pieces on defense, especially up front, for that to be a really good unit. I mean, this could be a 12 or 13 win team.

That's not off the table. And I'm willing to bet on that sort of upside in this range here. Really quickly, I think the Packers is probably the best high upside swing in this entire draft. Like, I took the Cowards way out with the Cowboys of like automatic free 10 wins. You might cash in 13 or 14 on this bet. That's also what you have to consider here. Because inevitably, this is going to creep into how you watch the season.

It is so much more fun to root on the Packers in year two of this awesome revitalization project than it is to root on the corpse of what the Cowboys were two years ago. So I'm very happy that that's how I get to divvy up my rooting interests over a 17 game schedule, even though I'm sure a lot of Bears fans would puke hearing that. All right. My last team. This is my last team, right? This is my fifth one.

This is your last team of the good teams. I'm going to talk about some of the picks I was not making just so I can make it all make sense. I wanted to pick the Rams, but I think that division is just really hard, and their schedule in general is really hard, and I'm not all the way there on the defense. So even if I think the offense can score 28, 30 points a game, I just got a little bit sticky there. Dolphins was kind of the same question to me.

Eagles was a little bit the same question. I ended up just kind of defaulting to the guy I think is the best quarterback, which is Josh Allen. I'm going to take the buff. Damn it. Like, I do think that there is a chance that this team, maybe things just go horribly wrong, but I don't know. Like I've gotten to the point with Josh Allen where I almost think that's impossible, even for as stupid as he can be sometimes and some of the mistakes that he can make. I think on a game to game like over the course of the season, you're just not going to lose more than eight games with this guy. It's just not going to happen.

I think that's right. I'm worried about the defense. We're at a point now, post-Milano injury with some of the questions in the secondary. I'm genuinely worried. The alarm bells are going off. But we're at pick nine here. Picking the best quarterback and picking a team that's floor offensively is pretty high because the line is probably going to be pretty good and the quarterback is really good.

I can understand going that way. They're also for schedule reasons. They were the team I had circled here, so I'm a little bit annoyed about this. And you mentioned earlier about picking teams that you can root for. You know who's really fun to root for? Josh Allen. So true. And you know what they did at the wide receiver core?

They drafted my favorite guy, Keon Coleman, big man run fast. And I think he's honestly a perfect fit for the way that Josh wants to play football because, you know, he's probably needed a bigger guy who can fill that role. I know they kind of had Gabe Davis for a little bit, but he was on and off and not consistent. Keon Coleman can be a better version of that. I feel really good about where this team could be. The offense is a problem for me, by the way. My entire strategy, I kind of needed the bills to be here for it all to come together based on the other teams that I picked.

All right, so let's walk through this. If you're looking at the board, just purely the board, the dolphins are the highest team. The dolphins play the Texans, the Niners, and the Packers this year. Okay? Not great. After that, it was probably the Bills. After that, it's the Rams. The Rams play, the Niners twice.

The Packers, I guess they only play the Niners twice in the Packers. That's not that bad. All right, that's worth considering. Here's the other team that I would potentially throw in here, though. Don't we assume that the winner of the NFC South has to win at least 10 games? Is that a fair assumption? Oh, God. Oh, God. I mean, no, like, look at this division.

If any division is going to win with nine or fewer wins, it is this division, right? that would be the flip side of this question if any division is going to win with fewer than 10 it's this one. There's no good way for me to do this. Like you don't want to bet on Derek Carr or Kurt Cousins coming off in Achilles. By the way, it would definitely not be Derek Carr.

The team I would pick here would be the Falcons. The team I would pick here would be the Falcons. All right, let's look at the Rams schedule. Okay. So you got the Lions. They play the Lions. Don't have to worry about that. They play the Niners twice, and they play the Packers once.

So we'd have three, I'd have three games where I had to pick and choose. I'm picking the Rams. I'm picking the Rams. That's worth it. The Dolphins, there'd be one more game. I think the Dolphins play the Texans, the Niners, and the Packers. So it's three either way. So I think I'm going to take the Rams.

I mean, I like it. Actually, no, let me change that. I really did screw you by taking the bills, huh? I'm going to go with the Dolphins. I'm going to go with the dolphins. Yeah, just doing it in the same division, I feel like I'm just lowering my ceiling. Well, and honestly, that's a good bet, though, because one of those two teams is probably winning the divisions. There's the 5% chance everything goes right for the Jets, but I'm not going to be betting on that.

I think it's probably going to be the bill to the Dolphins. So if I take one, you take the other, someone's coming out ahead. So I think that Jalen Phillips being back makes me feel a little bit better. Like, Callais Campbell's going to give decent snaps for this team. We'll talk more about the Dolphins linebackers, I'm sure, when we do the AFC's preview. But I think that even with some moving pieces there, they probably ended up in a good spot. The secondary, I think Kendall Fuller, even though he's getting a little bit older, still a solid

player. They're piecing together that second safety spot with a bunch of older dudes. Like it's Marcus May and Jordan Poir, let's figure it out. But I do think that they have enough on that side of the ball, combined with an offense that some of the stuff they're doing in the preseason, man, it's intriguing to me. What I love about this team is that even if they don't always get there because of personnel concerns because of maybe some shortcomings with the quarterback. They know where they need to get better.

They know where the weak points are. So them kind of trying to lean into some gap scheme runs, even in the preseason, I just have faith in what the plan is going to look like over the course of the regular season for this to be a top five adjacent offense. And you could probably say the same thing with the Rams. I don't think that's wrong. But the Rams defense is just so young in so many of these spots. And again, I have the Niners and the Packers on the schedule already.

So I'm going to go with the Dolphins. It's very close between those two teams, though. I am glad you mentioned the Dolphins always know what they need to get better at. That's been to me the most impressive thing about Mike McDaniel. Because if you look at the tree that he's come from, whether it's Shanahan, McVeigh, it took a few years or certain iterations of the offense for them to really start to change and become something different. And in the case of Kyle for a long time, he didn't really need to be anything different.

But then we saw McVeigh had to go through this process. Mike McDaniel was almost immediately presented with like, oh, shit, I have to change my offense and we have to like turn these different knobs and dials and make the offense different. And every time he's had to do it, it's turned out well. And he's found a new answer. And like you said, in the preseason, it kind of seems like they're cooking up some new stuff again. So there are not many guys I trust more than Mike McDaniel to figure out whatever the next step is. So, yeah, I would have felt good about the dolphins here.

Would you pick the dolphins of the Rams if given the choice? like agnostic of conflicting with the other teams that I have in their schedule, I think maybe the Dolphins, just because, like, with that offense, I don't know. Okay, if I think they're both... It's hard. I think that it's a similar set of considerations on both sides. Here's the thing. I think if they're both going to be top six offenses, which given, you know, unless there's catastrophic injuries, I think they probably will,

I probably feel a little bit better about the Dolphins defense. Like just the same thing. It's exactly my thinking. Oh, man. I'm glad I didn't pick the pockets. There was part of me that wanted to just for math reasons. I'm glad we walked you off of that one. I appreciate that.

You probably shouldn't have. You probably should have let me do it. I know, I should have just let you do it. So here we go. These are the five good teams that we've landed on. You have the Chiefs, the Lions, the Ravens, the Cowboys, and the Bills. I'm going to get stomped in this. I love all my quarterbacks here.

Obviously, that's such a good way to do it. But I'm not doing too bad here. I have the Niners, the Texans, the Bengals, the Packers, and the Dolphins. The two maybe non-top eightish quarterbacks I chose are part of the two most explosive, well-designed offenses in the NFL. So we didn't choose any teams just based purely on schedule, purely on division, which I think is probably the best way to go about this. All right, here we go.

This is the fun part. Now, two teams each that are projected by Vegas, to win seven or fewer games. Let's try out this one more time. Okay. Giants, Raiders, Washington, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots. You're going to make me vomit, dude. Stop.

This is not going to be fun. Okay. This is easy for me. The team that I think among all of these teams I'm most willing to bet on. And it's the Tennessee Titans. Yeah, I knew where it was going. That is, when I gave up the first pick for this one and took the good one, I kind of had in mind exactly who was going to go first overall both times. And I was like, I just got to let it ride.

I just feel the best about this team. Where they're, what they did this offseason, I've said this multiple times, I stand by this. I don't necessarily think it was the best collection of moves for the 2026 Tennessee Titans as they're trying to potentially win a Super Bowl. but I do think that what they did potentially allows them to microwave this season and be more competitive than a lot of the other seller dwellers that we're going to talk about here. My thing with the Titans was, I think they have both the best floor and the best ceiling of all of these teams. They could be a playoff team. They legitimately could be a playoff team in the ASE.

In this division, it's really not that crazy. In this division, it's really not that crazy. Like if Will Levis gives them even just average quarterback play with how good, some of the skill players are, some of the past catchers are. If the defense can be okay, like in this division, you can win nine games, man. It's not that crazy. Brian Calhahan came out today and said that it sounds like DeAndre Hopkins will be ready for the start of the regular season. So coming off of preseason injury and being in your 30s as a receiver, I certainly don't feel great about it.

But I do think that there's a path for this team to be competitive week in and week out with the improvements on the offensive line with Bill Callahan. They went out and spent a shitload of money on defense. Again, I don't know to what end, but if the end here is them somehow lucking into 10 wins and getting a wild card, that would be amazing for me. So I think that they have the best chance of all of these teams to do that. And that's why I feel pretty good about this. Yeah, I think they had to be the pick. All right. So now where are you going to go?

Great question, man. I'm going to decide it right now. I have there's a couple of teams that I put on my like, do not draft list. Like, I'm just not going to touch them. I'm not going to really. Who's just off the board? Who's off your board for character concerns? To me, the commanders, dude, I'm not touching the commanders.

I think with that offensive line, no thank you. I'm out and I don't love some of the defensive pieces. Carolina kind of not necessarily the same concerns, but that defense, I'm just totally out. There are other teams. Both of those defenses are slated to be slow. Yeah. Just really, really slow. And if we're trying to pinpoint disaster potential on that side of the ball,

that's usually where I would start, where you walk out in week one, and how many really good players do we have on this unit, and just how creaky do they feel? And I think for both of those teams, there's a chance that we don't feel good about the answers to either of those questions. Yeah, we might week one or week two be like, oh, they don't have gas. It's over. It's just they've got nothing.

And so I'm very concerned about that. And there are a lot of these teams on this list, that even if you have concerns about the offense and the quarterback, You cannot say that about the defense. Right, exactly. And that's why, you know what, I really don't care. I'm just going to go with the team that I think is going to be the most fun to root for. I'm just going to pick the Patriots.

They might be terrible. The offense might be really bad. But I still think the defense is going to be like top seven. And I'll root for Jake May, dude. I don't care. He could throw 30 picks. I don't give a shit. So I love this because I knew this is exactly what was going to happen.

This is part of why I felt good about having the number one pick among the bad teams because I knew that the right answer here, if you actually look at the facts and projections and all of this, is still probably the Raiders. It's the Raiders. No, it is. It's 100% the Raiders. But I knew you wouldn't be able to stomach choosing the Raiders with Drake May and Joanne Bentley still on the board.

So that's why I knew I would come out with like a bandit here potentially. Watch the Raiders be the worst team in the league, which they absolutely could be. But they were definitely number two on my board as I was stacking this up. It was basically that, though. It was like, okay, both defenses will be good. I feel better about New England's, but I think they'll both at least be above average. But then I was like, you're not worried about our team trading. Arguably, it's like second best defensive player two weeks before the season? In the sense of like, are they going to be top two? Like, I think I had them in the show a little bit. Do I still think they'll be top 10? I think I'll be okay with that. I do think that there is a very real chance that the Patriots surprise us. Like the Mike May in all of this, that is the factor here that I probably should have weighed heavier than I did. There's a chance he's just good. And if that's the case, he could potentially lift that group. And if the defense is like a borderline top five-ish unit, this could be like a seven or eight-win team and surprise a lot of people.

And again, I think the Raiders floor based on new offensive play caller, new offense, new head coach, period, new staff and a very bad quarterback situation. And there is real disaster potential here, but I think the defense is a chance to be good if they can stay healthy. And I do think the skill position talent for the Raiders, if those guys stay healthy, I just feel like it's a safer bet than the Patriots are here, even if it's a more boring bet. No, I will say that though, as much as I'm going to love rooting for Drake May, and I'll do that any day of the week, I will say it would have been really fun to root for those two tight ends, you know, Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers. I thought both of them, I thought both of them were just awesome prospects, like top 15, don't even think about. at incredible players. The fact that they have both and are going to be obviously a unique offense when you have both of those guys on your team, it could be fun.

We'll see if Lou gets he can get the most out of them, but like it could be fun. All right. So I'm taking the Raiders, obviously. So the Titans and the Raiders are my two bad teams. Who are you going with here? This is bad. This is really bad. This is where it got bad because those were the only three teams I felt okay about.

They were when I did my little board here among the. these seven, those were the top three teams. It was Titans, Raiders, Patriots in that order. I was so glad I did not have to pick anything else because I didn't feel good about any of the other teams that could be available. Yeah, I feel terrible here. I mean, I already talked to you about two of my other, you know, do not drafts in the commanders and the Panthers. I guess I'm going to take the Giants, man. I mean, I feel terrible about it. Like, this secondary has a bunch of fake players outside of Deontay Banks. They lost their best one in Xavier McKinney. The offensive line is probably still like a bottom eight unit. Daniel Jones is playing quarterback again for some reason.

Malik Neighbors is cool. That might be fun. Dexter Lawrence is great, but, you know, I don't think this team is winning more than like six. There was no good answer here. No, I was pinned in a corner. I think I probably would have gone with the Broncos just because it's a Sean Payton bet and they have the best offensive line of all these teams. Like, that ultimately is what was going to tip it for. It was like, if I'm going to bet on anything, with this group, I probably should bet on the team that has some stability on offense because of the line. So I would have gone with the Broncos. I can see a path where the giants are functional.

I don't think it's totally off the table. If Neighbors is a star from day one and they get some juice from some of these, here's what I'll say. They need this to be a transformative draft if they're going to reach anything close to their potential. And I know that's not, it's not like a great insight. But if they can have an outline here where Drew Phillips, Tyler Nubin, Theo Johnson, Malik neighbors, even like Tyrone Tracy, come in and just give this team some juice in all of those spots. And with the moves they made along the offensive line, that group is like the 22nd best offensive line in the league. And Daniel Jones doesn't implode. I think that they could potentially be competitive.

The problem is that's a very, very, very narrow window to fit this into. It's a fine needle of the threat. I will say the offensive line is my cope here where they might have been the worst in the league from left guard to right tackle last year. It's one of the worst offensive lines I've ever seen. Andrew Thomas is awesome, like truly all pro level quality. Everybody else maybe should not be playing that much football. I'll give the center. John Michael Schmitz a little bit of, you know, he actually didn't play that bad.

And he was a rookie and maybe he can take. And just surrounded by like totally an attitude guard. Like, exactly. Unplayable guards on either side of him for a huge chunk of the season. season. And to have that be your situation as a rookie, that's really tough. Right. So if they can, like you said, get to, I don't know, 22nd, 23rd offensive line, we've seen this offense be okay with a below average offensive line. They just have to not be the worst in the league. So that's my dope here. I think that's right on. And I think that Ryan Daibel has shown a capacity to do this.

Like two years ago, this was a top 10 offense when you looked at the efficiency numbers. So I think that there are paths where they can get more out of this group than people are expecting. And if neighbors can be like that true number one guy from day one, which I do think he has the capacity to do, I think this could look like a very different unit. My main concerns here, though, talk about disaster potential. There's a ton for this team. You have Daniel Jones in a lame duck year where the entire offseason, there was a television show exploring all the ways they wanted to upgrade a quarterback.

You have a head coach who has done the snip-snip who's calling plays on offense like 40 times, and that group is on the hot seat. So there is real implosion possibility for this team in a way that there might not be with some of the newer regimes you could have chosen between. But I do think the ceiling for this group is a little bit higher just based on how they're constructed. Yeah, I think relative to my options, this was maybe the most high risk, high reward I could take. but with the last pick in a trash team draft, whatever, I'll take the high risk, high reward. I already took my fun team, so I'm good.

There's a chance the Giants win four games. I think there's a chance that the Giants, a lot of things would have to go right, can win like eight or nine games. I don't think there are many paths where the Panthers are like a nine-win team this year. That's the thing. I think there's like no shot there at nine-win team. They would have like eight different miracles would have to come down from the heavens for that to happen, I think.

I kind of feel that way about Washington too. Yep. Even if you're excited about Jay and Daniels, I kind of feel that way about Washington, too. What about the Broncos? Like, how real are the Broncos as a choice for you here? So the Broncos were to me like the opposite in that I probably felt the most good about them getting to exactly six wins. Because kind of like what you mentioned, Sean Payton, good offensive line. That's kind of a good place to start.

They have a couple of nice places on defense, but I think I couldn't get myself all the way there with wanting to trust them, whereas even though the Giants have plenty of questions on defense themselves, that front seven is pretty dang good. Now, the secondary, eight different questions there,

but the front is really, really good, whereas I think it was a little bit more murkier and up in the air with Denver. All right, our teams are set here. You have the Chiefs, the Lions,

the Ravens, the Cowboys, the Bills, the Patriots, and the Giants. Good Lord. I have the Niners, the Texans,

the Bengals, the Pals, the Pals, hackers, the dolphins, the Titans, and the Raiders. Attacking on the bad teams right on at the end of the list without now explaining why we have them makes us sound like we pick those teams like over the Eagles and stuff like that, which makes us sound insane. The Eagles are another team. I absolutely could have taken the Eagles when I did.

I just think that there's real downside potential there. Like there is a chance that they just go completely off the rails. Like the vibes are important here. And I think that if you're choosing between teams, going away from the potential. like complete catastrophic outcomes that that's how I made a couple of these decisions. I had the Eagles in my dolphins, Rams, like Buffalo Bills, like that type of tier. It's just that I had already taken the Cowboys. So I was like, I'm not going to take both.

That seems stupid. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's fair. Again, I just like, we're talking about a head coach that like probably could have gotten fired after last year. They're calling Bill Belichick. We got two new coordinators. There's a chance that they write the ship.

and this is a double-digit win team. I think that's possible. I'm just worried about the other side of it a little too much to bet on them here. I bet I had the Eagles of my team last year. I did not enjoy the experience, so I'm not going back to that well. The other team, Beller dropped us in the chat. The Bears, I'm not there. Like, I am absolutely not there.

So maybe, maybe if the Caleb Williams thing comes together. But here's the situation I'm in with the Bears in exercise like this and in fantasy. I don't want to bet on bears in these sorts of things because if they're bad, I lose twice. And if they're good in real life, I get the benefits of that. So I'm much rather approach it that way than have to have stakes tied to them in two different areas. If we went one more round, I think they would have been in really heavy consideration for me. If we went one more round, you know, me having the lions also maybe kind of screws that that up. But they were in my at least top half.

That's for sure. This is going to be really fun. I'm very glad that we included the bad teams. Like we mentioned, we have a bet on this. We have agreed to it. We're not going to publicize it because it's going to ruin the surprise when we do get to the Super Bowl. But just know that it has similar juice to the hot dog suit. We're in a similar kind of area here.

So I think it is going to be worth waiting for. And I'm excited to do this every week. And I'm excited to provide some consistent updates on this. Yeah, I'm going to have to, I'm going to be sweating every week. I'm not usually a betting man. You know, I don't do much bandwills or any of that. other stuff. So this is the one thing I'm going to get my juice from. I really got to redeem myself after what happened last year. I guarantee you it won't happen,

but I'm willing to live with it. All right, guys, that's all we've got. This is coming out on Tuesday, like we mentioned, we're recording this on Sunday just because of travel schedule. So if we had some news that crept up over the 24 hours between when we recorded this and when it was released, just know that's why. We'll be back with our division previews starting on Thursday. We'll have those coming your way on Thursday and Friday. We're going to do the NFC East on Thursday. So be ready for that. We talked a lot about those teams today,

but we'll dig in even further when we talk about them later in the week. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.