The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The TAFS 2025 Wins Pool Draft

Episode Date: September 1, 2025

The annual Wins Pool Draft is here. Three drafters, seven teams apiece, glory and ignominy at stake. What more could you ask for? In both of the last two seasons, Robert Mays has had to pay off an embarrassing bet on Radio Row. Will he make it three years in a row, or will Derrik Klassen or Dave Helman save him and fall into the TAFS Wins Pool basement? Listen along as they guys select seven teams—five good and two bad, with bad being defined as a win total over/under of 6.5 or fewer—on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It is time for the annual wins pool draft. We have done this for the last two years. I have lost each of the last two years. Exercise is pretty simple. Me, Derek, and Dave are each going to pick five teams in a snake draft that we think are going to finish with the most wins in the NFL.

The goal is to have the most combined wins by the end of the season. We added this wrinkle last year. We're going to keep doing it. We're also picking two teams that are projected to finish with six and a half or fewer wins when you look at Vegas over unders. So we're going to have seven teams apiece, 21 teams total. So most of the league compared to what we've done over the last couple years. I hate my team.

You guys will hear that as we go through it. I have the third pick. I feel like I was screwed by the random order generator. But that's where we are right now. So let's get to this year's edition of the 2025 Winspool Draft for the Athletic Football Show. It's time for an annual tradition, what has become an annual tradition, that I have come to loathe because I have lost it over the last two years and paid off a bet that was humiliating in front of all of our colleagues, Derek.

Two years in a row at Radio Row, I have had to do terribly embarrassing things in front of everyone we know in our professional space. And I'm really hoping Dave joining us this year and cutting down my percentages of loss from 50 to 33 gets me into a better spot with this. But I'm not holding my breath. So you don't have any more confident that you can beat me necessarily. Why would I? I don't intend to let you, so I'm feeling pretty good.

I have a really vivid memory of, because before I joined the show, I still worked in NFL media, and I remember you in the hot dog costume on Radio Row at the Super Bowl. And I remember thinking, oh, I guess Robert lost the team's bet. And now I'm part of it. And I hope that's not me in six months or four months, whatever it is. We will have a punishment adjacent to the two that we've had over the last couple of years, where it's not horrible, but you don't want to do it. My favorite part of the hot dog costume was that I was walking into Radio Row that day with Diana.

And Jeff Darlington was also there. And it was one of those things where Diana was looking at me. And then Jeff Darlington, who was in this beautiful... The most well-dressed man in NFL media. What did I do? Like, why did I make this decision? So I'm really glad that I can make myself kind of doubt all of my choices and my coworkers based on how this bet goes. If you guys have missed this show in the past, the rules are pretty simple.

I mean, really adding Dave this year. but everything else stays the same. We're each going to pick five teams this season that we think are going to be good. The loser at the end of all of this has the fewest combined wins among those five teams. We have not done Snake in the past, but with three people we are going to do Snake this year. The wrinkle that we added last year is that we are also doing the teams at the bottom of the projected overrunners. There are seven teams this year that have an overrunner per Vegas of six and a half or less. we are each going to pick two of those teams

in addition to our five quote unquote good teams just because you pick them doesn't mean they're going to be good. You hope they're going to be good. So we're going to walk away from this with seven teams each. Whoever has the fewest ones combined at the end of the year has to do something very embarrassing at Radio Row. Are you guys all okay with that? I'm the most okay with that.

I'm here, right? Yeah, let's do it. We picked a random order last night. Dave has the first pick. Derek has the second pick. I have three, four, and then we will go in snake order from there. Dave, why don't you start us off? Who are you taking with the number one pick in the 2025 wins pool draft?

I watched you do the random name generator, so I know it was random. And I gave myself the last pick, so clearly I did not. I appreciate the leg up in my first year doing this. There were really, there's two options for me. I'm not going to tell you the other one in case you all disagree. But I had two teams that I really feel good about. and the team that I'm ultimately going to opt for is the team that always wins 11 or more games

if their quarterback is healthy. And that's the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson, when he's playing, is a lock for an 11 plus win season. They won 14 games a couple of years ago. A step back for the Ravens last year was 12 wins with Lamar being in the MVP conversation. I just feel incredibly confident

that this team is going to get me where I want to go. And I'm at peace with it. My only pushback to that is the Chiefs have won at least 11 games every single year that Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback. And maybe I'm overthinking it. But the Ravens are more fun right now. The Ravens and then like the Ravens I think are a consistently more entertaining team to watch over the recent past. And on top of that, if we had recorded this before Rishi Rice settled for a six game suspension, maybe I would feel differently. Because remember, we just did our AFC West preview.

And I am bullish on the Chief's offense. But losing Rishi Rice for six weeks just makes me wonder, like, are we in for a little bit more of the dink and dunk chiefs, the chiefs that went 15 and 2? They went 15 and 2, but every single week was stressful and not guaranteed. And I do think even if they're the chiefs, I think they're going to win the division. I think they're going to be in the Super Bowl conversation. But there's nowhere to go but down from 15 and 2. Like, what are the odds that you do that again? They weren't a 15 and 2 team either.

I'm mostly kidding. Like they snuck so many of those wins out by the skin of their teeth. So yes, the chiefs are going to be great. This isn't a knock on the chiefs. But with the firepower and the depth that the Ravens have, if I'm trying to pick the team that I think is going to have the highest win total in the league this year, it's the Ravens and one other team for me. And not to say the Chiefs can't get to the Super Bowl,

but I don't think it's the Chiefs. Yeah, I would take the Ravens if I had the first overall pick. I'm going to be very clear about this. I'm just giving you shit. Just being an antagonizer. I appreciate it. Eric, you're up. You have the number two pick. Who are you going with? I'm a little bitter about not being able to get Lamar Jackson, but that's fine.

Despite all of the things that we just said about the Kansas City Chiefs, there's a degree of certainty with them that I just cannot pass up. So I'm going to take the Chiefs. Like, it's just, are they going to win 15 games again? Probably not. But again, when you have Patrick Wilms, the bar is 11 wins. Then there's just. I don't think they're better than they were last year. The opposite is better.

She Rice was hurt all of last year. Yes, exactly. getting 11 games out of Rishi Rice instead of three games out of Rishu Rice is still going to be better. And Hollywood Brown is there. The offensive line theoretically should be better even with the young guys. Like we've talked about all of this with the Chiefs. I'm totally fine with the Chiefs going number two. I think that's probably when I did my big board, which that's my extent of my preparation here,

I do have a 15 team big board. The Chiefs were number two on my rankings coming into this. So I would have taken the Chiefs if you did not. Yeah, okay. Fair enough. That makes you feel a little bit better then. I'm at three and four. I think there are, I think there is a little bit of a tier break after three and four personally.

When you look at the teams that are available right now. You think that's still true after Thursday's news about, hey, hold this, you quiet. There is, there is part of me. There is part of me that maybe I am just a little bit drunk off the MicroPerson's trade yesterday, but I was like, should I take the Packers with one of my two picks here? I'm not going to do that. I still feel like even with Micah Parsons, there are a couple teams that I feel a little bit better about.

I think part of this also is that we did not take the Eagles in the team draft last year. And I feel very stupid about that. We didn't take them at all? We did not take the Eagles? Because both of us were so afraid of the Eagles vibes coming in this season. I remember actually, and like, please believe me when I say that I religiously listened to this show because I texted Robert after that episode. And I was like, no love for the Eagles at all? Like, even if you don't think they're going to win 14 games, this is a really.

good team. I was terrified of this thing coming off the Eagles spawning that previous season. I really was. And it was wrong and we overstated it. But I think I might be overcorrecting here a little bit. So I am going to take the Eagles because I just think that the roster is so talented. You get Vic Fangio back. They have like so much continuity on the coaching staff other than the offensive coordinator. So even with a couple of the question marks on defense now with those young guys stepping in, I still feel pretty good about where the Eagles are. And then I'm going to take the bills just because they have the best quarterback remaining of any of the teams. I Josh Allen that offense they bring their entire offense back with Josh Palmer I think believe they're still projected to score the most points in the NFL this year they have the MVP the defense you know there are areas of it that are a little bit shaky but there is enough proof of concept and enough earned equity from Sean McDermott and that coaching staff or I think they're at least going to be okay on that side of the ball and I still feel like the ceiling on offenses as high as anybody's in the NFL so I'm going to go with the Eagles at three the bills at four or vice versa or whatever as my two teams now that they're off the board I I'll say I thought about taking the Eagles first.

I think that highly of their roster. And I think if assuming relatively good health, I think they'll be able to roll over the vast majority of the teams on their schedule without like scheme or winning on the margins even coming into it. And they have better continuity on the coaching staff this year. I just if if nothing catastrophic happens on an injury standpoint, I think like 12 or 13 wins is the floor for Philadelphia. The only reason I like I still feel like,

or step down and an exercise like this compared to some of the other teams, just that just human nature, there is a step back after you win the Super Bowl. Like I just feel like there's some element of that typically after you win a title. And so I, there are other teams where the urgency

just feels a little bit higher, whether or not that should be the driving force here. That is my counterpoint. My counterpoint to that would be, what if you have a team full of all pros who see this as an opportunity to do something special as hell, which they have? Going back to back is hard to do even,

the Chiefs just did it. it, but historically, it's really hard to do. And they have the guys who, A, are talented enough and B, have the mindset that, hey, like winning a Super Bowl is cool. Being historic is better. And I think, I think Philly is kind of thinking that way right now. That's actually kind of where I got. I was like, man, Super Bowl hangover, all this other stuff.

I still, the offense wasn't as good as we actually felt like it was during the regular season, all this stuff. But then no more I, like, stared at the roster over the offseason. I was like, they're going to win like 11 games again at least. So good pick. I think they're going to be awesome. So you're up in X of 5, Derek. So far we've got Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Bills.

I am ecstatic. I wonder. To take the Green Bay Packers. This, even before the Micah trade, I probably would have leaned the Packers anyway because I think even without Micah Parsons, they were probably the team that I thought could go from like that 11 win to like, oh my God, they won 14 games this year.

Now maybe it can be 15 games now that they have Micah Parsons. So I really just do think that they're like, like a little bit of a sleeping dragon type of team. And so them getting Micah Parsons when we spent our whole preview saying, man, so much of this roster is put together. We love the coaches. Halfley's doing this. Lefleur's doing this.

Jordan Love might be better. They just need a little bit more star power. And then you sign like the sixth best player in the entire NFL. Like that's a pretty good way to get some star power. So I'm like over the moon about this team. I also when you look at the trade, and we have not talked that much about the trade because it happened right after we finished our final AFC North preview.

And so we just did like a little top or. so they have seen a preview on the micro trade. It's been obviously several days. You guys are going to be listening to this on Monday. But when you look at what they gave up, those first round picks, like the players you need from first round picks are typically high value players at premium positions. They have two tackles already.

They have a quarterback already. They have a pass rusher now. And they have interior defensive linemen. Like, they've spent on a lot of positions. And they just drafted a first round receiver. They just drafted. And receiver is the other one. And so I think no team is ever one player away.

And what they gave up is, it's huge. like two first round picks and $47 million a year when you think about the collective value of all those things is huge. But all we've talked about is who are the difference making needle moving players going to be on this team. It was like the one remaining question about the team. And now they have one of those guys. And so I completely understand it from their perspective. I don't think any roster is ever good enough to say we're the team that can afford to lose two first round picks and spend this amount of money on a player. But the Packers are the closest thing I could imagine to that being worth it. The bills maybe being another one. On top of that, even if it is a

a heavy price to pay, it's less than you would have paid if the Cowboys had gotten their shit together and decided to do this before the draft. So it's tough to say a guy making 188 million who costs two first round picks and a Pro Bowl player is a bargain, but you paid less than you would have however many months ago the draft was. So Dave, it's back to you now at six after the Packers going at five. You have two picks here at six and seven. I'd be curious for y'all's thoughts on this. I think I think most people agree. You, talk about the tier break like Baltimore, Kansas City, Buffalo, Philly,

we agree as being like on their own level, right? I think so. Yes. And then for me, I think Green Bay and Detroit are like the next step down. And then I think there's kind of another tier break, at least for me.

I would probably put one more team in the Packers Lions tier before there's another step down because I think in my, I think I'm kind of with Dave. I think everything else after that feels a little like, So I'm tipping my pick, but I think Detroit and Green Bay, after the four main contenders are the two next teams that I feel best about. So Derek taking Green Bay just leaves me with the Detroit Lions who are a bargain at six. Like for however you feel about how they're going to handle the attrition, a team with that much talent at six, I feel great about taking. Like that's completely fine.

And then for my next pick, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is because I've said on most, of our summer shows that I'm not going to overthink it. I'm not going to worry that they look like a more normal NFL team this year. I think the San Francisco 49ers are really fucking good. And they play an easy schedule. And I think they're going to win a lot of games. And I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and take them. That was my other third team in what I believe is that.

See, I think they're a step down from Green Bay and Detroit. I think they're probably a step down in terms of overall roster talent when you look at that. but if you just think about how that offense has been constructed in years past, when they've been like one of the best offenses in the league, they are still in that category. They got six all pros. They have, they're just,

there's still a lot of talent on that team. Kyle Shanhan is still there. And I do think if we're in that mode of, let's just not overthink this. Like, they're probably a 10 or 11 win team. I just think that the offensive stability on that team plus like, some of the talent on the defense.

It's just a combination that we don't really have anywhere else. Like, I feel like every other team that we're going to talk about here to me has like a bigger question for one year. unit than the Niners do, even with some of the questions about the young guys on defense. Like having Warner and Bosa, I still feel like there's an upside to the defense there that there's not with a lot of the other teams that we're going to talk about. This is going to sound insulting because, like, I mean, the 49ers are as real as it gets

short of having won a Super Bowl. But like, they could be a team where we get to the end of the year. And I'm like, they got 12 wins. I don't know if that means anything for the postseason. Like, I don't know if I trust them in a tournament. but the purposes of this is to find the most wins and I think they're going to have quite a few of them by the end of the year.

So Derek, you're up with the eighth pick here and I do think that this is... I do not like this position. This is all very jumbled. I do not like this position. It's much tougher now. Man. Like every team here has some sort of horrible fatal flaw.

That's exactly what I was saying. When I just think that I still, even with the questions on the Niners defense, you would not be, You would have immediately taken the Niners. Oh, I would have taken the Niners. There are none of the other teams that you would do that with. That's a good point.

Like I still like overall roster quality-wise, the Niners still probably feel a step down to me from like Detroit and Green Bay, but they feel a step above everything else here. So maybe they're in their own like half here. That was my exact point is that the clarity with which you would take the Niners in this moment if they were available is very different than all of the other teams remaining. Okay. I'm going to do.

I'm not going to like rooting for this team because of how. much I've hated parts of their team. I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals, I think. God damn it. I was hoping you weren't going to do that. I hate this defensive roster and I still believe that there's a chance that they're like defense 30 this year.

You're going to have fun. Whatever. But when Joe Burrow and Chase and Higgins are out there and hopefully I'm just going to bet all of my savings here on Fairchild, like it's just I'm going to have to roll with them. I really did not expect you to do that. I didn't either. I was really hoping the Bengals defense would scare both

of y'all enough to let me out of them. I really did not expect you to do that. I was really hoping I was going to get the Bengals and I was kind of planning on getting the Bengals. Now that's going to throw a wrench into my plans. Okay. So you took the Bengals at eight. I have two picks here. This sucks. So here are all the options, right? Houston, Denver, Washington, the Rams, the Vikings. To me, all of these teams are, like, jumbled into the generally same area. And that's why this is difficult. Everybody has warts. Everybody has one reason that you would not feel good about them. We were talking about this with what's keeping us up a night about Washington and just the pure age on their roster. They're the oldest team in the league this year. Yes. With a second

year quarterback. It's just such a strangely built roster in terms of like what they're trying to do. So, man, I just, I don't feel good about any of this. And my board is completely useless right now. The way I had these teams ranked before we started, I'm not even paying attention to that. I was really thinking I was going to get the Bengals and then one other team. I, because of the the quarterback quality. And because of just the overall competency they showed on offense last year and the offensive line getting better,

McCorn now being there, I'm probably going to take Washington at nine. I don't feel great about it. I mean, it's the same thing I just did with Sincere, basically. It's defensive. I don't feel like I don't feel great about it. I hope that works. Like I just,

I still feel like they're a team easily that could go nine and eight and miss the playoffs. But I think that if Jaden is that guy, I will feel very good about this. Because this is something that I've learned. like the quarterbacks and who you're rooting for a quarterback every single week as part of this exercise. It's very important. And so I just think that among all the teams that are left, and that's why I would have taken the Bengals,

among all the teams that are left, I think the only other quarterback like down to down I would feel better about right now. If you could guarantee me health would be Stafford, but you can't hear. But you can't. So that's to me why they're so scary. Okay. So I'm going to take Washington at nine here and not feel very good about it. And now this is where things just get absolutely brutal. Because now you're asking me to pick between a Broncos team that still might be middle of the road offensively.

Like the improvements there are all theoretical. A Texans team, the Texans right now, and I, I'm making light of this. I still think the Texas offensive line of past protection is going to be better than it was last year, even with outwearing me tonsil and even like a slight step down an overall roster talent. I think the plan is going to be better enough that it's not going to look like it did last year. but right now if you're just like flashing up a depth chart that commercial back in the day for the NFL draft where they showed a clip of David Carr and there were no offensive linemen in front of him that's what the Texans actually are right now in terms of who is proven up there so it's terrifying

to take them here even though part of me wants to because of C.J. Stroud and the defense. I'm about to say I feel like there's a butt coming there. I think the, oh man, I think you can make an argument that you can probably make an argument of both of these teams that the Rams and the Vikings have the highest upside. Yes. The Rams have the highest upside of anybody left. Of the two teams remaining. But I also think that there's like a significant amount of downside.

I don't feel good about this. And they're not even almost close to the next team up on my board, which is become completely meaningless. And I'm going to take the Rams. I think that's the right call. Like, I don't think it's the right call. I think it's the call I'm going to feel best about. For me, it has, if you're swinging for the fences, that's the, this is the 10th.

This is the 10th pick. And you theoretically, you just pick. picked a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Like, if Stafford's healthy, this should be a damn good team. I know. And this idea of like, if Stafford's healthy, getting to watch him throw in the ball to Puka and Devante all year and like having you're going to have fun.

That even a little bit. That was part of it is that I think the fomo of missing out on the best version of this Rams team when I could have had it is not a reality that I wanted to face. And so that's why I ultimately went that way. Not only that, but it could go sideways for him for a month and a half. And we know they could still potentially dig out of it because they've done it two years in a row. So I just, with the 10th overall pick, I just took a 38 year old quarterback with a back injury. So I feel real good about that.

Well done. All right. We're 10 picks in. We're going to take our first break and then come back with the final five of the good teams part of our draft. All right, Derek, you're up here with the 11th pick. I have a feeling where you'll go with this pretty quickly. I think it's, we just talked about how much the Houston offensive line is like not a real thing. But I think I'm going to take the Houston Texans.

I just, if at this stage, I'm having to bet on. on defenses that are really cool, but I want to watch some part of the offense. For me, I would rather just pick C.J. Stroud. And I also think for as good as the Broncos defense is, I think if I had to pick the best defense in the league today, it would be Houston. And I just love D'Amico Ryans.

They have a horrendous division probably still in a way that the Broncos absolutely do not, in a way that the Vikings absolutely do not. So I'm going to take the Texans, despite the five guys standing in front of C.J. The division is also a good thing to bring up with taking Houston over the Rams. and my initial exercise and how I rank them.

It's part of why I put the Texans ahead of the Rams and then I just completely ignored it when it came time to make my pick. It's the beauty of the exercise. I think this whole exercise is just about confirming your prior. That's exactly right. Yeah. Which is... I mean, so we had 10 teams on our seat at the table show that we did

for the teams that we think can win the Super Bowl, which is not this, right? This is a different exercise. This is regular season wins. But 10 of those 11 teams now that we've picked were in that exercise. The other teams that we didn't have were left off. So we're kind of in lockstep with how we went about that a couple weeks ago. Which tracks because it's funny, I don't feel that conflicted about this.

I think y'all might. I know Derek. Derek would because he's a hater of this team that I've grown to love so much. I feel I'll take Tampa Bay. Oh, man. Oh, interesting. I'll take Tampa Bay and I feel fine about it. Oh.

Like, it's all the stuff we laid out. And we set it at the end of the seat at the. table episode and I've thought about it ever since is we're sitting here debating the Houston and Minnesota of it all and I'm like Tampa Bay doesn't have as much high in talent but like you might feel better about just the overall state of their roster and again they play in the NFC South we can I'm sure we're going to talk about the Falcons in a little bit I mean if they jump up then that could change the calculus here but I expect Tampa to have an easier path to winning their division than a lot of the teams that were still considering.

And I know that's not the point here, but if you win your division, it means you're going to have probably 10 wins. You have two picks here, so it matters a little bit less who you took. I'll be curious who your next pick is. I want to hear your next pick before I ask you about alternatives and pads you did not explore. It's funny. All right.

Let me, all right. Now that, because Tampa, so I've got a tiered. Tampa was the last team on the previous tier that I had. So that was easy. You really, okay. Now, who's your next team? I like the bucks. I like the bucks and I'm not, I'm, I don't care who knows it.

Now I'm, I'm a little stuck here because I don't love my options quite so much. Oh boy. I don't want to, I don't want to share too much about like how I think about this until he gives me his next team. Yeah. Because I have thoughts about like the tiering and where you cut it off and who you might take. I hate this a lot. But you know what? I feel like I've gotten a lot of hate for my opinions about what their ceiling might be.

And since we're in this situation, I mean, we're pretty far down the board at this point. I'll ride on JJ. I'll ride with J.J. McCarthy. I'll take the Minnesota Vikings. I'll take the swing. Again, like you guys have laid it out for me every time we've talked about it. We don't need this guy to do that much for this to be a really good team. No.

That's true. Again, we're not taking him at the top of the draft. We're well into this exercise at this point. I am comfortable betting on J.J. McCarthy's upside because it doesn't have to be that high for me to benefit from. No, it doesn't. He has to be a pretty good quarterback for this team to be really good based on the overall roster talent on both sides of the ball. I mean, what they have built in terms of the personnel on offense plus Kevin O'Connell, we've talked about it a million different times. I'm not sharing too much because I'm a little bit surprised about how this is gone. And so I want to wait until you pick before I like finish downloading my thoughts about the top 15.

waiting for you to say a name and then he's like you fools this is these are the flaws in your logic strongly about it but i'm like i don't want to share too much before you make your pick i really hate where i'm at here i know you do any of these like this all feels disgusting there's a team left that i was tempted to take i'm curious to see if they go off the board here like i at this stage i'm like a little bit thinking about just like flipping on one of the teams that is a little bit lower on the board that I think just might have like really crazy upside, but Denver is still on the board, correct? I'll just go with Denver. I really, really thought you weren't going to do that.

So that's, there is a lot of the- I was so bummed about this. I thought that the Bow-Nick stuff would dissuade you from doing it. That's really upsetting. A lot of the Bo-Nick stuff freaks me out because he, between the way that the pass protection was set up, between how much they RPO stuff, between how much like the the offense was still good despite him being pretty bad under pressure. of that feels like that could really regress and they could be not very good on offense, but

at this stage, the best unit left on the board is the Broncos defense. And I think you have enough faith in how like buttoned up and professional. I'm not betting on Bo Nix. I'm betting on Bo Nix. I'm betting on Bo Nix to an extent is okay. Yeah. I'm really surprised that the Broncos last week. Did you think I was going to take L.A.?

I didn't know what you were going to do. Okay. I truly don't know what you were going to do. But I, when you said that you had the bucks like a tier above all these other teams, That was surprising to me. Because I do think I had the Broncos like right in line with even like the Texans. Like I would be okay taking the Broncos right behind the Texans. So I had them like 12.

And so the idea that I was almost going to get them at 15, that's why I wasn't saying anything because I was very excited about that. It is fun. I'm not questioning myself. I feel good about it honestly. But it is interesting. Like I just took the Vikings who have an unknown at quarterback and you feel that good about the rest of their roster. I should feel really, really good about the Broncos roster, and we've seen their quarterback get them to 10 wins.

I think the high on talent on offense is different for Denver than it is. Yeah, no, it is. It is for sure. But I can imagine a Broncos fan being like, you have less faith in a team that's done it versus a team that's breaking in a new quarterback. And my answer is kind of, yeah. Like, I'm fine, slow playing Bow Nicks.

I don't think he's bad. I think the Broncos will be good this year, but I'm comfortable not purchasing a ticket for that, ride. I think I wanted just a little bit more. I mean, certainty is always hard to say. Like defenses we know about volatility with defenses. I just feel like I would have felt best about taking the Broncos after the Texans. And so I was really hoping that I was going to be able to now. Now, like the war we're in here now after that group, it was easy for me to do the top 14, right? The top 14 that we just did, those are the top 14 teams that I had. Getting to 15

after that, I think is a little bit more difficult because the other teams right now that have a projected over under of nine and a half. There's only one more of them. The Chargers are the only other team at nine and a half or more that we have not selected yet. And I just am worried about the Chargers. As much as I love Justin Herbert and for as well as I thought Justin Herbert played last year, the current state of that offensive line concerns me. They're still like, we're hoping the young scope position players are going to be good,

but who knows? And the defense... Their worst talent was than they were last year. extremely well coached, but I just don't know how much they're going to be able to keep doing this defensively. And you saw what they did against any good quarterback that they played in the back half of last year. I know they were banged up at safety, all that stuff. And I think they'll be solid. I think overall they will be solid.

But my concern is the ceiling is just not high with this team on either side of the ball. And so now you get back into the teams that are eight and a half or more. And I do think there is one team in that eight and a half. half range that I feel better about compared to the others. And I'm going to take them here instead of the Los Angeles Chargers. Say it. It is the Seattle Seahawks. Oh, okay.

Not what I expected. Who'd you expect? So that's the last team, right? Yes. Y'all are going to think I'm crazy. But again, we're just talking about getting to the end of the regular season with a high amount of wins. I consider taking Miami.

Oh, I can't do it. They can be the worst team in life. I don't want to watch them. I don't want to watch that. I trust them to get to a decent win total. That's probably not a bad bed, but also the downside swing. I don't know about that. I think the upside swing for Miami is like the best case scenario for Miami is they win like 10 games.

What do you think is the best case scenario for Seattle? I think the best case scenario for Seattle is they win 10 games. I think the worst case scenario for Seattle is they win seven games. I do not think that is the case for the dolphins. You think the floor is that low for Miami? I mean, unfortunately, you just can't count on Tua's health for starters on top of several other things. But just the vibes are like, and that's not a very scientific way to do this. And I think we like to pride ourselves for thinking about the sport more than that.

But it's just like sometimes you can look at a team and you're just like, that's not right. Like that just does not look good. I just don't. I am just so worried about the Chargers offense outside of Justin Herbert at this point that I just couldn't feel good about that. I also that like I could be wrong. And especially with Slater out, even if the Chargers are like a. pretty good team. I don't think they're going to be that fun to watch.

That's part of it as well. Which like that sounds insane because Justin Herbert is such a fun player. But I just, I don't know. I have questions about it. I have questions about how good the passing attack is going to be. I feel a little less good about Amari and Hampton now that you're all pro left tackles not playing this year. So I don't have a problem with you passing them up.

And the other eight and a half teams, bears, Steelers, cardinals, Patriots, dolphins. I mean, Patriots and Dolphins, non-starters. Like, we've talked about this with the Patriots. Like, them being at 8 and a half to me is like, I don't really understand that. Like, I just think that that's pretty aggressive considering what last year it looked like. And I mean, is Carlton Davis and Milton Williams, like enough to get you to nine wins considering everything else in the roster? I don't know. I just don't think so.

Steelers, I've had it on record where like, I think the disaster potential for the Steelers is higher than we think it is. Arizona probably would have been in one of those teams where I think the floor. is relatively high. I just think that the Seahawks defense, I do think that there is a real chance they could be one of the best defenses in the league. And so essentially you're betting on the upside of the Cardinals defense

versus the upside of the Seahawks offense. And I'm already kind of in on the Seahawks offense. Like my main fantasy team has J.S.N. And Kenneth Walker on it. I'm kind of buying it. And so that's where I'm going. And I do think that the Seahawks defense is a chance. chances to be really good and really fun.

And so having a little bit of buy-in into this Seahawks season on multiple different levels, I'm okay with that. I mean, at this stage in the draft, the only unit here where I would like bet on them to be a top five unit on their side of the ball is the Seahawks defense. Yes. And so maybe that's too simple of a way to do it. But that's probably what I would have done. And that's always like famous last words when it comes to defenses.

Yeah. But I just think that the Cardinals offense, there's a defined ceiling on the Cardinals' offense in mine. Yeah, they didn't do anything. I just don't think that they can be like one of the best three or four offenses in the week. I'm doing mental math right now, but so the NFC West and the NFC North are the only divisions where we took three teams from each, I think. Yeah. Sounds about right. And again, the Chargers play on the AFC West. I think the AFC West is going to be pretty brutal every single

week. Yeah. Yeah. So I do think that there were 14 teams that were easy. And I think that there was one team that was always going to be tough. And that, to me, was the Seahawks. And it's because of the injuries, the Chargers are already dealing with. And I just don't, I don't feel great about their ceiling. I just don't. I think that their floor is probably pretty high. And but it's definitely a mystery box thing with the C-Hawks where like the defense plus the changes on offense. I'm like, I'm just more interested in caring about this than I am about the Chargers right now.

I think that's completely fair. And well, I'll say it one more time. I think I've said it a few times already. I think that works against the Dolphins as well. I think people, I think we are bored by what the dolphins have been and how similar they're going to look to last. It's the complete opposite thing for me. Because I think the Chargers, I do think there's a level of safety with the

chargers right now. I think the dolphins are the least safe pick you could make in this range by far. Is there any, is there any scenario? They're not the least safe pick. They might have like the worst defense in the least in this range. Is there any of these teams that are like eight and a half or nine and a half? Let's just say eight and a half. Maybe the bears. So you can throw the bears in here. The chart, if I told you, what are the odds of the chargers are the worst team in the NFL? I think it's without low. Low. Very low. Very low. Herbert would have to die. What are the odds that the dolphins are the worst team in the NFL? Decent. Yes. That's why I think it's very different when you're talking about the

Dolphins and the Chargers. It just, it sucks because if you could guarantee me that Tua would play the vast majority of the season, I'd be like there's no chance, but you can't. And that sucks. I still think they could win like six games if Tua plays the vast majority of the season. If he's healthy for all 17 weeks, I'd think they're like an eight or nine one. What if Tyrie Kill was just like a non-factor three weeks into the year because he's chosen he doesn't want to be a part of this anymore. They have way more disaster potential than I think that you were bad. I'm curious. I'm curious. I'm curious to see.

I just, I see the, I think the dolphins are, they're not, they're not good. And clearly I didn't pick them either. So let's start there. But I just,

I think, I think some of the alarmist stuff with the dolphins gets overstated. But we'll see. We'll see. I don't know. Other than the fact that you can't count on the quarterback to play a full season.

And that is very real, unfortunately for him. So that is valid. But if I had more confidence into his health, they would probably be on my team. guys let me jump in for a second so we started this off when Robert took the Eagles and said

we didn't take them last year right we didn't take them last year if there's a team in this group that a year from now we're sitting here doing this and saying oh my god I can't believe we didn't take X is there one is there a team that we think we could be saying that about a year from now the way that we said it about the Eagles just now it's a great question I mean it would be the bears like if Caleb is good in the defense is what you think

it is it's the bears right and I under no circumstances am I ever going to do that I'm going to do that, yeah. That's because with any time there's, it's why I don't often gravitate toward bears and fantasy football either. It's like, if I'm invested in two places, then I can be let down in two places. I'm already invested emotionally in the quality of the team.

So if they're good, I'm going to find the benefits of that. So I would rather hedge my bets emotionally with the bears. So that's why I don't do them. You don't need a double dip? There's no reason. There's no upside to it. I'm already going to be happy enough if they're good in my personal life.

I don't need to let it bleed into stuff like this. I mean, in the interest of anticipating all outcomes, and I thought about this too, here I go being an NFC South apologist again, but I'll mention Atlanta. Again, like if Michael Pennix Jr. is awesome, then that is a team with a much higher ceiling than I think people are talking about.

That's actually a good one. Yeah. If the Falcons win 11 games because he kicks ass, is that super shocking to anybody? I, we have not talked about the Falcons as part of this. We probably should because I do think that... I thought you might take them. No, you've hinted all summer how much you like them.

The defense is way too scary to me and nasty. It's the defense and the front. Who knows about the foot? Yeah, and the front is not good. Maybe they're okay, but we have absolutely no idea. So I think the just the complete unknown on defense, plus the fact that we're going into the season. I know Darnamuni is practicing again.

It looks like Darno Mooney might play week one. That's great. But now we're down. Caleb Gary's on IR and Storm Norton's going to miss like five weeks. We already have a whole attackle for a team that was pretty healthy on offense last year and is not deep on that side of the ball, combined with a complete unknown on defense. So I'm open to the idea that the Falcons are an 11-win playoff team.

That's fine to me. But I do think that there are enough significant question marks personnel-wise where I just, I can't do it. I might have considered it more heavily if McGarry was healthy. But, yeah, there's just enough stuff to be worried about before we've even started playing. I think maybe, I mean, I don't know. What do you think like the best case scenario wins losses for the Falcons is?

it's always really dangerous to put this stuff on tape in late August, by the way. Like absolute best case scenario, I like, even 11 feels gross coming out of my mouth. I think they could win 12 games and everything like breaks all the time. We just saw the commanders do this. You're betting that Michael Pennix is that kind of good. Crazy shit happens in the NFL every year. But I don't want to like put that on into the universe. I'm open to the idea that you can be really good.

And the offense can be like a top three or four offense in the league. I am open to that. It's all I'm saying is that I can I can see that world. I can see the Falcons as an 11 win team. Do I if you really want me to like, do I really believe it? Not really. But like I can I can squint and see it. I told you all.

Part of me is part of me wishes I would have taken the Falcons instead of the Seahawks. I really thought you were going to. Like it seems like you're you're bought in on what the vision could be at least. I'm going to stick with the Seahawks. I'm interested in what the Seahawks are going to be. I don't know. There's no good options here. None of these things are going to make you feel good about yourself.

For the record, I don't think the Seahawks are a bad pick, but you said that you really had to explain it to yourself. Again, I don't feel good about any of this. I don't know how you can with that 15 team. I think the Chargers are probably the safest bet. I think there's probably a lot of people screaming that it should be the Chargers. I just, I'm not interested in that. I'm just not interested in that for 17 games. Even with the Herbert part of it, I just find the rest of the roster unappealing and uninteresting.

I just rooting for that and like caring about it for 17 weeks. I just, it's not a, it's not for me. The safe pick at 15 is how you end up with a face full of unicorn makeup. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So I'm fine. I go with the Seahawks. I understand there could be an argument for the Chargers.

All right. We're going to take one more quick break and then we're going to come back with the teams that are projected to win six and a half or fewer games. We're each going to pick two of those. We'll be right back. So before we get to your pick here, Dave, the seven teams that are picked by, for Vegas that have an over under six and a half or fewer are the Titans, Panthers, Raiders, Giants, Jets, Browns, and Saints. I probably should have reversed the order here for the bad teams if I wanted to be fairer to

myself, but I don't really care that much and I didn't want to do the math on it. So I'm going to let you pick first again day for the bad teams. I think I know where you're going with us considering you've tried to bring it up like three times so far. It's a huge sigh of relief. I mean, I feel bad that I get to go first because I have more anxiety about these teams that I did about picking the good teams. And yeah, I'm just going to ride with the Tennessee Titans.

I'm not going to think that hard about it. And even if they're not good, I just, I'm signing up to root for Cam Ward. The process is correct. We all love Cam Ward. I think he's so fun. Even if the Titans suck, like watching him play quarterback sounds like it's going to be fun this year. And they might not suck.

They might be really good if he's, if he's the guy that I think he is, the Titans could be a surprise playoff contender. So this was easy. And I was more antsy to pick the Titans than I was to pick the Ravens, honestly. I think among all of these seven teams, I think every single one of them has a chance to be like a four win team. I think so the downside I think is relatively similar for all of them. And I think if you're trying to build the case for who could be this year's Texans, who could be this year's Washington, it's obvious. But I do think the Titans have the best case for that.

And to me, it's a combination of the quarterback plus the offensive line being potentially as good as it is compared to all the other teams in this range. that's why I would just feel really good about picking the Titans here. I mean, I think there are runners only five and a half. There are several teams that are six and a half that are above them, but they absolutely would have been my first pick if I were sitting there. We were joking about this last night, just hanging out talking ball. He did some questionable things, but if the Titans hit the ground running, I hope Rand Carthon gets a thank you card or something for the additions that he made to set this up.

Because some of the stuff that they did while he was their GM could greatly benefit Cam Wood. even if he also did some questionable things on the defensive side of the ball. Like their offense, if Cam Ward is the man, could really be a fun unit and could be the reason why this is a team with a lot of wins. Yeah. I mean, if I had had the first pick, it would have been the Titans. Because I am prone to in these exercises picking the cool quarterback. But also, like, I've talked about it on the show a million times how much I love Donard

Wilson and his defense. And I think that front could be pretty good. So Titans felt like the obvious choice here. So you were here, too. Who are you taken? I have a feeling I know where you're going with this. I'm going to ride with Pete Carroll, man. Like Pete Carroll, Gino Smith, Brock Bowers.

It's just like at this stage, almost like at the top of the exercise, it's just like what of these teams do I want to root for? And there probably are one or two more other teams on here that like I will enjoy dumpster diving and watching those teams on Sunday. But the Raiders are the team that it's like, I can sell myself on the idea that they're like still in the wild card hunt at the very end. Whereas a lot of these other teams, it's like I really have to squint for it. The Raiders offense could be good.

Yeah, like they could just be actually good. And the defense is obviously a huge question mark when you look at just the roster on that side of the ball. But I completely understand taking the Raiders at two here. I would have taken them as one of my two picks, no matter what you had done if you had not taken them. I do think there's probably one team here that is more appealing to me than the others. I'm going to take them as one of them. And that is the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, I figured that was funny.

We've talked about this. I'm excited to watch the offense. I'm excited to watch what it looks like. I do think that they have like at least a smidge of uppermint. upside offensively compared to some of the other teams here that I'm curious about. And so getting to watch Bryce Young and the version of Bryce Young when we saw in the second end of last year as part of this, I'm totally fine with that. So I'm going with the Panthers.

After that, it's harder. I think for me with this group, the Titans, the Panthers, and the Raiders were the three teams I would have been most excited to pick. After that, it becomes a little bit more difficult. I don't feel good about this, but I do think that if you're telling me of all the remaining teams, Giants, Jets, Brown Saints. That one of these teams was like a surprise wildcard team.

It's probably the Giants. Yes. Right? Talent-wise, they probably have the most firepower. It's probably the Giants. I think they're also the most intriguing because there's the potential to inject a first round picket quarterback into the lineup and see what happens there. I think that's right. And so the idea that Jackson Dart could be

pretty good if he starts playing early in the year, combined with the front that they have, Malik neighbors. I do think the Giants are just a little bit firepower is a good way to put it i just think that there's a little bit more umf for the giants than pretty much any of the other teams that we could talk about here i think the jets have a chance to be like sneaky competent we talked about the browns i think the browns offense could be like a watchable unit despite having joe flacko a quarterback but i do think that the giants

are probably the last team here that i would feel decent about and so i'm going to go with the giants and the panthers is my two picks i think when you're down here it's just like the simple math is if you grab the five best players from each of these teams yeah i It's probably it's got to be the Giants. So even if I feel icky about other parts of their Ross Jets, probably what I would have done here. Okay, I wasn't going to mess with any sort of like draft voodoo or anything early on, but I'm just going to say it now for angst purposes potentially.

Robert, you've got three NFC East teams. Eh, it is what it is. It is what it is. Hey, we did a show about it, Bellard. The three playoff teams have come from one division every year of the expanded format. And it's also like if the Giants win seven games is the third place team in the NFC East, like whatever. That's a win for the purposes of this exercise.

In this situation, if the Eagles win 14 games, Washington wins 11 games as the two seed in the NFC, as the second two-place team in the NFC East, and the Giants win seven or eight games, like, that's totally possible. What the hell happened to the Cowboys? I was about to mention that. They're the team that gets left off, which is, that's fitting for the Aussies in that time. I'm picking best team, regardless of anything,

if I'm part of this, but I remember you last year at this time, really, really, really, forming into those schedule and the matchups. That's why I didn't look at any of that this year Because last year it did nothing for me I'm just picking the teams I want to root for As part of this today All right so Derek you are up

You had this is your last pick We have the Jets the Browns and the Saints Are the three teams remaining I'm just I'm just in the bag for Aaron Glenn So I'm just gonna take that You were going anywhere else with this Yeah like I know I've been like the weird Saints guy On this podcast for a long time

But I'm not doing it with them over over the Jets Like Aaron Glenn I just trust him a lot defense will be at least better than it was for most of last year. And then I'm going to definitely be holding on to my hat for the offense. But if the offensive line is good enough, I could enjoy that. So, you know, I'll take it. Dave. What a choice.

You are, this is, this is tough. I joked before we went live that you were going to have to pick between your home team and the Cleveland Browns, which is never a good spot to be in. I'm, I am so conflicted here.

Because like, I mean, there's more to like about the Browns on paper, I think. Like, we did the AFC North preview yesterday or on Thursday. I think Miles Garrett and the defense are going to rebound at least a little bit. Even if they're not the best defense in the league, I think they'll be better than they were last year.

Joe Flacco is a guy that can get you some wins. He's done it before. I'm mainly I'm worried about what happens if there's a quarterback switch and like when that happens and how much it affects the Brown's ability to win. Like if they're starting a rookie in October, that changes. the calculus for me a lot. And it sounds potentially very unfun to watch. But then that's the Saints from the beginning.

Yes. That's the Saints right now. And I think at the I mean, I'm from New Orleans. I grew up a Saints fan. It's very tempting to just ride with that because of my history with that franchise. And you know what? That's what I'm going to do because I, whatever.

That's where I'm from. And maybe Spencer Rattler will be more fun than I think. But just in general, I just, the Browns, the Browns have bummed me out for most of the last like five years. There's no good choice for that. I want to be clear about this. I don't want to associate with that energy. And like, Kellan Moore is a new coach. Maybe the Saints could be a pleasant surprise. I, I, right now, I know that I'm probably making a mistake. Like, if I had to guess, I think the Browns finish with more wins than the Saints, but I'm more intrigued by what the Ratman. I mean, the Ratman and

Kellen Moore and like nobody's got expectations at all for the Saints. So anything we get is a pleasant surprise. And I said it on the NFC South preview too. Like it's baked into that franchise's DNA to like they're like they're like they're not going to tank. They're going to find a way to annoy everybody and win like five games. And they probably shouldn't. But that's what they'll do.

And for some dumb reason, that just sounds more entertaining to me than trying to ride with the Cleveland Browns. So who'd add. All right. those are our 21 teams that we are going to be riding with going into the year. We're not going to reveal the punishment. We haven't done it over the last couple years because I do think the surprise at the end is actually worth it. And so that's what we've done.

That's what we're going to continue to do. Just know it's going to be in a similar sort of vein. All right. You kept track of who has who on which team. So read off the teams real quick. All right. Here we go. Dave Hellman inaugural year in the athletic football show, Winspool.

You've got Ravens, Lions, 49ers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Titans, and Saints. Derek Classen going for back-to-back winspool victories. Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Texans, Broncos, Raiders, Jets, and Robert trying to get off the punishment train. Eagles, Bills, commanders, Rams, Seahawks, Panthers, Giants. A lot of NFC in there, Robert. My team is fucking terrible. I felt, see, the differences with doing this with two people, you can look at your four and five teams and like sell yourself on all of them and be like, I'm going to be great. Now that it's split between three people, I get to like my fourth team and I'm like,

this feels bad. I immediately regret the Commander's Rams double. I just immediately regret that. But I also don't know if I would have felt better by any of the teams behind them. I love my picks. I picked first. I guess I should. You're the eternal optimist.

You know how your buddy tells you his fantasy team and you're like, what the fuck? Are you playing in an eight team league? Like that's how I feel about my team. I feel like I'm stacked. I'm ready to go. Jane Daniels better be really fucking good. year. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll be back on the feed tomorrow with the second episode of Building the Beast with Dave Helman and Dan Bruechler breaking down week one,

a loaded week one in the college football world. For the rest of the week, we have our awards and prediction. So coming to your guys's way on Wednesday. We're going to have a week one preview on Thursday. And I think we might just drop our week one, our opening game recap that we're going to do for YouTube. We'll just drop that in the feed on Friday. I think that's what we're going to end up doing. So we have a loaded week coming to your guys as way. And by the time you listen to this or shortly after, we are going to have some very fun announcements coming about the athletic football show in 2025.

So appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.