The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The teams we just can't figure out going into the season

Episode Date: August 10, 2026

No matter how well you know the NFL, a handful of teams every year are going to throw you for a loop on the doorstep of the season beginning. That doesn't mean they'll be bad, or even that you think they'll be bad. It just means you can't quite put a finger on what they're going to be and how they're going to play. Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman name the teams they can't quite figure out in 2026 on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.0:00 Welcome to the show4:41 Packers18:42 Saints28:41 Chargers38:11 Vikings44:41 Cardinals52:59 Patriots1:05:28 Commanders1:08:35 ChiefsJoin The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today we're digging into the teams that we just, for whatever reason, can't quite get a handle on this offseason. We landed on, I think, about eight teams that for whatever reason, they just are a little bit confusing. They're a little bit hard to pin down. And this is all over the place.

I think, again, this exercise, it says a little bit more about you than it does about the teams. And so the teams that we ended up picking, I think, are very telling. But a lot of fun, kind of knotty, conversations on this show because you're really arguing in every single direction about how this could go because you don't really understand where these teams are and what they're going to be capable of this season. Really enjoyed digging into this show with Dave and Derek. Let's get

to that conversation right now. Every year there are teams that no matter how hard I try, I just can't seem to understand, even as we get close to the season. And it's a useful exercise It's a show I enjoy doing each summer, and that's what we're going to dig into today. Just a handful of teams that for each of us, and for whatever reason, we just can't quite get a handle on even a couple weeks into training camp. I'm very curious, Dave, where you landed with yours, because I think it's going to be a very different set of teams for all of us, I would assume, because this is, this says more about you than it does the teams. And so I think it's a very personal expression what we're going to ultimately land on today collectively. It's funny you say that, and I do anticipate you being right, but I was thinking about your take from the half big take show while I was putting my list together where you were talking about how there are more teams than ever that you could see as a playoff team and it's a nightmare trying to sort through it and pick 14 teams to make the playoffs. I landed on some teams and there are a few teams that confound me, but I think it's fewer than ever before for me.

Like there are usually, there are usually like half a dozen teams that kind of piss me off at this time of year. And this year, it's more that there are a couple teams that piss me off, but it's mainly because I can't decide and not like I can't tell what they're doing. I really feel like I have a handle on what most teams in the NFL are doing. Like there's there's a small group that is very clearly rebooting and rebuilding for a future push. and most of the teams in the NFL, I think, have a pretty clear direction toward either that or contending for the playoffs in 2026. Most of my consternation is me not being able to decide how I view a team more so than me not knowing what the hell they're doing, if that makes sense. I think that makes total sense. I'm in the exact same boat.

These are, these teams, I get what the plan was. I just am not sure how well the plan is going to work out for all three of the teams that I land. landed on, which I guess you're right. That does feel a little bit different than some other years, Derek, where it's about me not understanding what the offseason plan was, how it's supposed to all come together. There is a slightly different flavor to my bucket of teams this year, the way the Dave is saying. Yeah, I mean, I feel like that to me, like, I feel like the Seahawks were a really good example last year of like, they were kind of a hard team to get a handle on. And I think even though, even if, I mean, you saw the vision for the offense more than I did, but even still, it was really hard to picture like what the. does that actually look like at its best? I think even the Jaguars were kind of a team last year that I had a, I think on this exact show, I had a little bit of trouble like, okay, the defense is like kind of talented, but they played way below their level.

I think Trevor Lawrence is good, but Liam Cohen really only did it for one year in Tampa Bay. I don't know if he's going to be able to do it with this offensive line. Like, they were another weird team. So I did, I will say, I think it's easy to pick teams that are in the like, fringe-ish playoff range, right? Because those are the teams that it truly is like a coin flip.

I do have one on either extreme end of the spectrum where the team that should be really good or team that should be really bad, but I feel like I had a harder time actually gauging what they're not. I believe that than I thought. I tried to steer away from teams like the Seahawks last year where it's a new coordinator and that's the thing that really muddies the waters. I have a couple of those, but the indecision and the confusion isn't really about the new coordinator. It's more about how everything comes together because you can just do an entire set of teams that have new coaches because that's where a lot of the variance comes in. So I'll be very curious to see which direction you guys took this.

Dave, why don't you start us off? Who is your first team that you just cannot really get a handle on for 2026? I think it's a fitting place to start for the three of us, honestly. And that's because I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers. I almost have them. They were one of my first teams off. I love this because I'm so curious where you take this. I just, I legitimately don't know what to do with the Green Bay Packers.

because there's a lot of, there are always going to be reasons for optimism with Green Bay. They're just a stable, consistently well-run organization. I know a lot of Packer fans are frustrated with Matt Lafleur, but it could be way, way worse than Matt Lafleur. This is an offense that you typically have been able to count on to be top 10 in all the meaningful metrics. Jordan Love is he's the new king of the nerds quarterback, according to Bill Simmons. like he's the new guy that advanced metrics watchers key in on and people debate about. Jordan Love's a good quarterback. Jordan Love for me is like a top 10 quarterback.

He's better than that depending on the metrics you want to look at. They have exciting young talent. They have when he eventually is available. They have one of the best defenders in football and Micah Parsons. And it is a long season, by the way. I don't think you can let his lack of availability for the first third of the season completely cloud your view. with this team. But for everything I could come up with about reasons you should buy in on the

Packers, there's just as much holding me back, whether it's the shuffling on the offensive line, the loss of depth at receiver, which a perfect example of the fun shit we talk about at training camp this year. I'm really loving the receiver optimism coming out of Green Bay right now with like Matthew Golden is ascending and he looks like the guy. and he's catching all these long bombs from Jordan Love. And Jordan Love is talking about like, I finally have more time on task with my receivers and we're building chemistry and the rotation makes more sense.

And every year up until now it was, we have six great receivers. We're so much better than everybody. Or I broke my thumb a week ago. I can't practice. Yeah, well, there's that. But like, I love the cope of saying like having three receivers is better than having six. We're glad we don't have the depth anymore.

And so, and yeah, I just worry about how well they're going to deal with those changes and deal with that loss of depth. The cornerback room concerns me. The running back room concerns me. There's, there's eight different reasons why I'm worried about Green Bay, but they have the quarterback, they have the coach, they have the stability. And so I feel dumb for questioning them. But in a very contentious division, I just can't, I can't figure it out. And I don't know how much benefit of the doubt they deserve considering, you know, for as successful as I view them over the last few years, you're still talking about a team that's usually sneaking into the playoffs. And so what do we do with that?

I think all the things that you listed for optimism, like, you know, when Michael Parsons comes back, he's as good as anybody at his position. Jordan Love is a very good quarterback. we think Matt Lafleur is a really good head coach. I do think the receiving core, if those three are the ones that are playing and are healthy, I do think they'll be pretty good, especially when Tucker Kraft comes back. I think those are all reasons that, like, it's really hard to see this team bottoming me out. Like, seven wins does kind of feel like the bottom. I just kind of feel like 10 wins is the ceiling.

Like, I just don't really think that this roster has enough around it. I'm questioning the defensive coordinator higher. I don't think they added enough really on the defensive side of the ball. and then I've talked a million times the offensive line, man. Like I know when we were doing, we did the headlines kind of recap for training camp stuff,

you and I, Dave, a couple days ago on Thursday. Friday, Matt Lafleur came out and was having a quote kind of talking about Anthony Belton. They were like, we love his versatility, which...

That's the most green base shit ever. Well, and for a guy that you're was trying to tell us was going to be your right guard, now talking about his versatility towards the end of the camp, I'm like, well, is he going to be the starting right guard and it sounded like they had

another player who I'm forgetting his name now also taking some first team reps at guards so I it's a mix of like Jacob Monk and like Jaeger Burton yes yeah like Jay there's been a guy coming out of family night that's getting a lot of love too which is fun because I love rookies and

the draft is my thing but I don't know if a fifth round rookie is pushing the second round pick from last year that concerns me just as much as intrigues me this is partially a product of Zach Baco Buele not playing though. I mean, yeah, he hasn't been practicing.

And so I think he just got back to practice. And I assume that means Belton is going to move back over. We're going to do this a million times with the Packers' offensive line before the start of the season because I do think it's an area to focus on. I think that's where if I were building a case as to why I can't get a handle on them, that's probably where I would start because I just feel the angel and the devil where I look at the talent and I'm like, it's not good enough. It's not good enough.

And then on the other side of it, it's like, they'll be fine. they'll be fine they'll get them to a workable place it'll be fine but i think the point that you're making derrick that's probably where i land with it too remember last year on the half-baked take show one of the ones that i had is that i just thought that the packers had like this new clear potential last season heading into last season that obviously they didn't realize for a whole host of reasons they weren't that type of team beyond the first two or three weeks of the season they got really banged up especially down the stretch there are reasons they didn't get there but right now i question whether that gear is even possible, in part because the offensive line quality, in part because

the question's about the offense. And so it does feel like the ceiling for this team might be a little bit lower than it's been over the last couple years when they didn't reach that ceiling anyway. I just feel like that's kind of a disaster. It's not good. Some of it's bad luck, right? Like losing Micah during the stretch run, I mean, there's nothing you can do about that. And it sucks.

But you trade two ones for Micah Parsons last year. you, for a very brief moment, did look like the best team in football. And you were chasing that dragon for the rest of the year. And to sit here one season later and say, ah, 10 wins is kind of the ceiling. And maybe it'll even be as bad as seven wins, which, by the way, they haven't won that few games since they got Mike McCarthy fired. Like, this isn't a team that you associate with seven and 10. And so to be here one year after swinging the trade of the year because you think you're

close to winning a Super Bowl, it just kind of sucks. And that's like I'm trying to grapple with with the reality of where it looks like they are with where they're supposed to be. And I don't think this is a bad team for the record. But I thought this was a team that was getting ready to take that step into being on the short list. And they don't feel close to the short list to me right now. And like I'm sitting here debating whether I think they're capable of even winning the division,

and let alone, you know, pushing for the one seat or anything like that. This is my devil's advocate point would be, even as we're saying all this, I'm sitting here looking at the roster. How much worse is the roster right now really than it was heading into last season? Even with the offensive line concerns, how much worse is the offer really? We've talked about this. It's more fragile. They have less depth at some of these spots. More stuff has to go right.

But overall, is the roster really that, is it? is there really that much less talent here than there was heading into last season when I think we had a lot much more collective excitement for where this team is? At the top end, no, I don't think so. And I will say that like last year, Michael Parsons and Tucker Kraft are two of their three best players. So the fact that they were missing them for a lot of the season, especially down the stretch, that does hurt them a lot. Tom wasn't playing by the end of the year.

DeVosso, W.I.I. wasn't playing by the end of the year? Like, there were a bunch of guys that were hurt for this team near the end of last season. And so is it an Occam's Razor thing where, this actually is still a really good team and the reason that they disappointed us over the last month or so last year is has more to do with the fact that all of their best players were hurt slash not even playing

rather than they actually did kind of turn back into a pumpkin and that's what we should think of them moving forward. You can hear me just arguing against myself here because I'm in the same place, Davis. I don't really know what to do with this. Two thoughts, two thoughts. Yes, they're just less deep.

but depth is so important. You can't just assume that you're going to have things go your way over the course of 18 weeks in the playoffs. Like you're going to have to. Where are they less deep, though. They're less deep along the offensive wine where the guys that used to be depth are now starters. But by the end of last season, those were the starters anyway.

And even that's the problem. But I do think that if all those guys stay healthy, you know, including I'm going to keep saying Zach Tom, I know he changed his name, Bakublewewe, including their best offensive one. did not play by the end of last season. So that group is going to be, I mean, and Rashid Walker, she walked paid $4 million in free agency this year, like $5 million.

It's not as though he's this high-end left tackle that you're replacing. And I get that they're thinner receiver. Depth is really important. And I know that we're joking about them really liking the fact that they only have three guys instead of six. Look at the best offenses in the league over the last three or four years. You got two or three stars that you're just funneling all of these targets to and the rest of those players matter very less.

Like, Kanata Mumfield is not the reason that the Rams are an elite offense. That John Dodson isn't the reason that the Eagles are winning the Super Bowl a couple years ago. You look at the Bengals, it's not Andre Yoshivas. That's the reason that this is a top five group all the time. So those shots at Kanata Mumfield. Like, he made the most of the opportunities he was given. But that's an important. I do think that that is a good point.

The best offense is usually can just funnel. Do the Packers have two guys good enough for that? Yeah. Do the Packers have stars at receiver? Like, are we calling any of them stars? Christian Watson's a very good player. He's pretty good, but he's not, I mean, I don't even think he's like a tier. I don't even think he's within the tier of like T. Higgins, who is not even the best receiver on his team. I think that's the whole thing with the Packers is there are quite a few guys on the Packers that we think of as stars who have not necessarily gained that status, in my opinion. Here's my concern with all of this, is that we're going to do this and talk about this team with this tone. and then we're going to get into the season.

The offensive line quality is going to be the same. The same as it's been. Maybe they're able to establish themselves on the ground a little bit less than they were when they were at their best a couple years ago when they were really successful efficient rushing offense. But I'm just imagining this world where Marshawn Lloyd is back on the field and dynamic and giving them an element in the backfield they did not have over the last couple years. And we have Matthew Golden coming in and being like, oh man, Matthew Gold was a first round pick.

He's got a lot of juice. Christian Watson's the same guy he was last year. The quarterback is still really good and the play caller is really good. And we wake up on Halloween and they're the third best offense in the league and I feel like a moron. They could be the third best offense in the league and still be

frustrating as hell. That is also the Packers story. That's what they were kind of last year. Yeah, they were top five offense last year. I think I will say I'm probably just tired of being trying to be like a head on the Packers and I think I'm probably a little bit of just like I get that. Show it to me. I think I'm a little bit like, I believe in the team kind of, but like I kind of want to just see it at this point.

I'm way less gung-ho about it than I've been over the last couple years because I will fully admit that there is a bit of over correction and reverse jyncing that goes on with me in this football franchise because of what has happened to me and just the emotional beatdown I've received over the last three decades of my life. So I'm a little bit slower to get there now than I have been recently, but there's still this uneasy feeling in the back of my mind where I know. how good Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love are, and it's not like they're scrubs everywhere else. Even if they don't have star power at receiver, I do think they're capable enough. The defense is another conversation. The defense is something where I think you could see the path last year.

And we talked about this a lot, where Jeff Hathley, it's been an interesting, Jeff Hathley's reputation, I think, has been a shifting kind of moving target over the last couple years. Coming out of year one, I thought that he did a really good job with that group of players that they had. It wasn't a very talented roster overall. They dropped Micah in there and you're like, okay, this staff did a really good job.

Now they do have like a superstar difference maker. Can this be a really good defense? And then that really shifted over the course of last year. And so I just think now going to Jonathan Gannon and looking at a similar level of defensive talent, I'm way less excited about the defense this year than I was heading into last year. And that's probably the biggest difference. But the offense still worries me as somebody who is heavily invested in a team in the division. I just if I wake up on Halloween and the Packers are amazing and everybody is so you know the Packers fan base and the team itself is like well well well don't you feel stupid and be like no I don't feel stupid at all I've been waiting for y'all to do this for three years thank you and thank you for redeeming it I think the last thing I'll say too the fact that the two parts of this team that I'm scared the most about are the offensive line and the corners the two

position groups that are most liable to give up nuclear plays, that is what kind of freaks me out about this team. Dynamic and inconsistent is, I think, where we're going to land with the Packers yet again, which is a familiar story that we've gotten used to over the last few years. All right, we got to move on because we can't spend 15 minutes on every single team. Derek, your first team that you cannot quite get a handle on in 2026 is who? I'm going to go with one that I think people are getting very excited about, and I think I'm trying to walk myself back from it a little bit.

And that is the New Orleans Saints. Their win total is seven and a half. Boo. I think in an NFC South that everyone thinks they're not the clown in the division. Everyone is looking at the other three teams and being like, I'm not the asshole. They are. And there's some validity to that with the Saints, right? Like they had a promising offensive line already.

You bring over David Edwards, who is obviously really good for the bills. you're going into year two of a quarterback that was not like super exciting and great but showed you enough that you want to move forward with him. I think Kellyn Moore was decent as a play caller last year. The offensive skill players, like if Olave can stay healthy, if Jordan Tyson can stay healthy, if Travis A. Chan can be a little bit better than he was last year and more consistent. Things can turn out well for them. And I think there's also on the other side a little bit of optimism about the defense because

I do think that Brandon Staley did a pretty good job there. But I am a little bit worried that there. are losing two of their best players and two guys that were in the spine of their defense. And Alante Taylor and Demario Davis, obviously, incredible in terms of communication that he's able to do there and them losing him. I do think hurts them a little bit. So I don't think that this is going to be a spot where everyone's getting excited about the Saints and then they win like three games next year.

I don't think they're going to be that kind of team. I just am really struggling to actually get myself over the hill of like this is the team that makes like a pretty cool jump. What are the personnel areas that you have the most concern about other than the departures on defense? Because you look at the current roster. If you're trying to make a case for why this team will be held back and won't be that surprise fun team in the NFC South, what would you land on? I mean, it's not fun to say, but like both Jordan Tyson and Crystal Lave, I think injury-wise, you just kind of never know. And I know anybody could get injured all the time, but like those are two players that just have a history of it.

so it freaks me out a little bit. And then I think honestly, like, Tyler Shuck, I think, showed some high floor stuff last year. Like, he's relatively accurate. He was getting the ball out to the right guys a lot of the time. But he did not really push the ball and he did take a lot of sacks. And so I do think that, like, in terms of what the ceiling is for the offense with him at the helm, I'm not sure.

Obviously next year, things should be easier for him if the run game's a little bit better. Tyson, I think can be dynamic in some ways. So I think there's some of that in terms of trying to figure out what, the ceiling for the offense looks like. I also think even just beyond the roster, I think there was a little bit of like, well, they won four of their last five games last year. Two of those were against the Jets and the Titans,

and they lost to Miami right before that. Like, it's not like they went on like this insane heater at the end of the year. I just, it feels like a team that were like a year like early on. And I think I'm trying to grapple with that a little bit. This is partially. So I, this sounds like, it's not that you don't have,

a handle on the Saints is that you think everyone else's handle on the Saints is wrong. It's a little aggressive. And like, but the problem is I don't think it's unfounded. Like I could totally see like Chuck, I could see him making that leap. And if he's a little bit more aggressive and a little bit more accurate down the field, this could come together. If David Edwards is exactly who he's been the last handful of years and Kelvin Banks takes a step and Fawaga is a little bit better, the offensive line could kick ass.

Like it's, it's easy for me to see what it looks like when it's there. I just have a hard time, like, I think fully getting myself over the hill and trying to figure out if I actually believe they're going to do it. But what does it mean? Well, I think what Dave kind of asked on one of the other shows of like, how good would the offense have to be for you to be surprised. I think that there's, I think that is almost kind of like the central question with the team. But if they're like 12th on offense and 15th on defense, let's just say that, you know, what they did, if you look at the advanced numbers in the back half of last year, they're really good. on defense. Let's just say that falls back to Earth a little bit because we're still talking about a unit that while they outperformed expectations, there's not a lot of star power on that side of

the ball. And there are real questions about what they're going to do on the edge, things like that. So I think that's totally fair. But let's just say that they're the 15th best defense in the league and the 12th best offense in the league. That is probably enough to be very serious players to win the NFC South at like 10 and 7. And isn't that kind of where we are? See, I'd say, I don't know if I'm there. This plays, this plays very, very well into what Derek is saying, which is that 12th in offense being like a quote unquote realistic place for the Saints to land is aggressive. They were twice set upro the end of the band, but it is, that's realistic, but upper end

of the band, which I think is fair to say, though. Realistic. Let's just call it average on offense and defense. Yeah, okay. Average on offense and defense, I think makes you very competitive in that division. And that, I think that's kind of where I expect them to land. I think it's, and look, I've said it on multiple shows in the last week or so. Like, I'm trying not to get reeled in too hard by the Saints because especially what I was going to say is those of us on the outside.

And I have actually talked to people at Saints training camp who have, who are impressed by what's happening there. And like there's a lot of validity to the excitement that's coming out of there. But I still think we're reacting to an incomplete picture. Like being able to see Jordan Tyson move the way he moves is incredibly exciting. But I don't know how much it informs you about how well the overall offense is going to work or just how much Tyler Shuck is developing in year two. And so like it's easy. When you see Jordan Tyson cut, you're like, oh, yeah, this is a top 10 offense. Are you kidding me?

This is incredible. And but maybe it's shit. maybe they're the 20th best offense this year, which would still be a hell of an improvement, by the way. It's just not the seismic improvement that would turn this team into a playoff contender. And I do think that's a lot of the like what I can't get a handle on. Is like, is them taking a step offensively like what Dave just kind of said,

20th? Because that would be an improvement. If they are the 20th best offense by DVOA, that would be like a tier up in terms of what they produce, even at the end of last year for the most part. Or is it them getting to 12? which if they are 12th, then it's like, if they're 12th in the defense is average,

they probably win the division. And so that's, I think, what I'm trying to like, because if they're 20th, like, seven and a half wins probably is about where the marker should be, but is this a team you want to bet the over on? And that's kind of where I'm trying to grapple with. If they're 12th, we're going, I'm going home and we're going to do shows from Decatur.

Like, that would be so, that would be so fun. I think you're, you guys are exactly right. I think I am getting a little bit ahead of myself. And when you look at the numbers from last year, it is kind of a stark reality check. They were 27th in EPA per play. But I think a really big chunk of that is this was a heinous rushing team last year. Yeah.

Like they were so, so bad. It was negative 0.11 EPA per rushers, 31st in the league. Only the Raiders were worse. And so if you can build yourself a little bit of a case for, okay, Eric McCoy comes back, you bring in David Edwards in Free Agency, you have another year from the young tackles. you bring in Travis A-chan. Part of it was that the backs last year just had no juice whatsoever. Like, Camara, God bless them.

Like, truly one of the most exciting, fun players of the last decade. It's over for Alvin Camaro. Like, he's going to play a very bit role there, if anything, in terms of early-down rushing stuff. There's a reason they went out and paid Travis A-chan a shitload of money. And so if their rushing ecosystem, kind of reminds me a little bit of the conversation we're having about the Texans last week, where if you can get to a place that just feels acceptable,

you do see the roadmap for the for the passing game and that the chance for that to get a lot better. But you guys are totally right. Like me just being like, well, if they're 12 on offense and treating it as though that wouldn't be like some seismic improvement. It's a 90th percent tile outcome. It's a very, very good point for you guys to bring up. I'm definitely getting a little bit ahead of myself. But again, Derek, just reframing it. You more so, I think, wanting to people to pump the brakes because you do have what is potentially a more

clear-eyed vision for what the saints are than what it's being made out to be as everyone I think it's two things I think it's one shuck was so much better than people expected that now I think we're overrating it a little bit when what you're saying is right that it was about the floor not the ceiling and I think that the Jordan Tyson stuff is real like it is hard to watch some of that stuff in practice and not start imagining the coolest version of this thing with him and chrysalave because it just it was devon valet last year like that's what it was And so I get it. And I'm guilty of maybe getting a little bit ahead of myself for those reasons.

But I think you guys are right in trying to reel it back in a little bit. I will say the fun thing about the NFC South is even a more mid version of the Saints taking a step forward is still capable of winning that division probably. That goes back to Derek's point. Everybody's like, thank God I'm not as bad as these other three teams in this awful division. and they all feel that way. I think that's also a part of this is that I want to get excited about someone in that division.

You have to. And so I think I'm speed running the Saints in order to just build an optimistic case for one of those four teams. Everyone's going to do it. It's why I keep saying weirdly optimistic things about the Bucks. We'll get to the Bucks today.

Don't you worry. You got to pick somebody to win the division. And if it's going to be the Saints offense being the 12th or 13th best offense, that's what it is. All right. Let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about mine,

which I'm already not excited about. All right, the first team I want to mention here, there is just so much implicitly tied into, and let me do that again, five, four, three. There is so much complicated history with the team that I'm about to mention here that is only part of this discussion,

but it does play into just my overall issue, with sorting out what I think they're going to be. I'm having a really hard time getting a grasp on the Los Angeles Chargers. I knew that set up I knew it had to be the Chargers. Let me walk through this. This is like a multi-pronged thing. Okay. The Chargers right now are tied for the sixth best Super Bowl odds.

That's so high. Sixth best. They are tied with the Patriots and the Chiefs at plus 1,700. Six best. if you and this is all like again take all this stuff with the grain of salt but i think it's good context right now if you look at look at headlines the chargers are 14th in implied scoring on offense in points per game they are 12th in offensive DVOA projections so if you have the six best super bowl odds if you're the chargers and you're projected for the 14th most points doesn't that

mean that you're going to have to have one of the best defenses in the league in order to justify having the six best Super Bowl odds. And what do we think about that with Jesse Minter no longer being there and it being the same level of defensive talent that they've had over the last couple years? And so I think in order to justify that level of preseason expectation to have the six best Super Bowl odds, you need to think the offense is going to be better than some of the markets currently do, which it absolutely can be. But I think it has to be to justify some of this excitement.

And so that's the push and the pull here is that the offense, we have to be projecting it as like a top seven unit, I think to be as excited about this group as it can be. And if it's not going to be that, are we worried about how much of a step back the defense is going to take? And so I think it's just me squaring what the realistic vision is for this Chargers team that justifies a lot of the expectations that are being heaped onto them. Because I'm just not sure how all that stuff is supposed to come together cohesively. I don't know if I can get. I think I'm pretty much in the same boat as you. Because I think the defensive part, like, when we, we all assume the offense is going to take some sort of a step.

But I think even if we love Mike McDaniel, even if we think Justin Herbert is good, even if we think the interior of the offensive line is better with some of the guys that they added, them going from what they were last year to let's just call it in the most optimist a case, like the fifth best offense in the league. That is such a dramatic, dramatic jump for a team that doesn't really have like any star skill players yet, like maybe. Marion Hampton is. Ladd McConkey is like maybe a tier below that when he's been healthy, but they don't really have outside of the quarterback who maybe is a good enough difference

to make it to be that level of offense. So I think we can push that aside. And then the defense, I'm with you. Like there really are not cases where a first year play caller in a defense, that defense is like elite. It usually takes like a second year. He's got to get some of his guys. He's got to figure out some of the kinks in the defense. And I know that he's, you know, have some familiarity with this, but it is still going to be a different. thing. And to your point, it's not a significantly better defense in terms of talent. You know, they drafted a key mesidor, but like other than that, it's mostly the same unit that they're running back. They did that because they had to. I mean, that being able to move Tully inside and having

that be the pass rush group with Oway last year, like they needed a third edge rusher to play the way they wanted to because they just don't have much interior past rush juice. Like a lot of those guys are bigger, but I love Tire Tart. He's played great, but that's not the type of player he is. And so the moves that they made, a lot of them were the moves they had to make. to bolster certain areas of the roster. I think part of this also, and I'm with you on the defense, like we just don't know.

Like I think Jesse Minter is really, really good. And you can make a case that some of the individual pieces may be better this year than they were last year. Dan Henley had such a weird year where he had that sickness that knocked him out. Obviously he dealt with the personal tragedy in his family life.

And so there's a chance that Dan Henley takes the step forward this year we might have expected him to take last year. Tar Heap still is somebody that I think there's still a little bit of meat left on the bone. Dante Jackson played really well for them last year. And so it's possible that maybe we don't see a lot of elite players on this defense right now. And by the middle of this season, maybe that number creeps from, you know, Derwin. And it goes from three and a half to five and a half just based on how things shake out.

I'm open to that. But if it doesn't, we're putting a lot on not only a first year play caller, but a first time play caller replacing one of, in my opinion, the best defensive coaches in the league. And so I think that's a big strain on what their expectations are. And the other layer to this, even if we can project them being really good on offense, and even if it's realistic to see them as the fifth best offense in the league, what is this offense? That's the other thing I can't get a handle on.

Because just structurally, like when you look at it, when I was there, it was the first day of practice. So no pads, take it all with a block of salt. but they're really pushing the ball down the field outside the numbers during the practice I watch. We're getting these big sail routes off play action and I do think with Justin Herbert as your quarterback, you should be doing some of that. That's not what Mike McDaniel did in Miami.

So I think that this thing is going to look and feel so much different than it did. How many clips have we seen of Keaton Mitchell catching 50-yard bombs during training camp? That's something that hasn't happened. And so I don't, that stuff is a good, that that lack of clarity is fun. I think that stuff is going to be really exciting, but it just adds another layer of confusion about what this team is ultimately going to be,

because even if I can project the offense being the fifth best offense in the league, what it looks like on a given NFL Sunday is just another thing that I don't really know what to make of right now. See, but that's exciting. And yes, for the record, I don't feel comfortable putting Super Bowl expectations

on the LA Chargers. I just, I can't get, their sight unseen. But, man, the offense, it could be so fun. And the fact that we don't know what it looks like is just a mark of good coaching because Mike McDaniel used to have an immobile quarterback with a bad arm. And now he has a transformer at quarterback. And by the way, it's so easy to think of what the receivers did for Miami. And those receivers, at least right now, you don't think of being in LA. But if the tackles can see, stay healthy. That in itself is a weapon. Like having arguably the best tackle duo in the NFL

and a good sinner, oh my God, imagine. Chargers fans could never. They have no idea. You get a good center working in front of Justin Herbert and a great tackle duo. It could be insane what they're capable of. And the stuff that Mike McDaniel can do in the run game, by the way, he's so good and so creative at designing that stuff. And obviously having Herbert, I mean, I don't know, dude, the optimistic case here, if I was just really buying in on the Chargers, top two offense, screw down five. It's there. It's absolutely there. But I think it needs to happen that way or be close to that to justify this level of like preseason expectation.

It's similar to the Saints, but a different version where like can we can we just be optimistic about the Chargers without having them sixth in the. Super Bowl odds. Like, that's pretty, you know, I firmly expect the Chargers to fight for a playoff spot, but like, yes. Sixth in the Super Bowl odds is a lot. That's kind of where I am.

Who is, like, 10th in Super Bowl odds? Like, that, like, I feel like the Chargers to me are more a team that we're going to fit into the back end of the table rather than, like, at six, where it's like you are very obviously in this group? I think that to me is the difference. It's like, are you obviously one of them or are you more like that rung under? 10th and Super Bowl odds is like Well there are teams

There are a lot of teams tied for it with the Chargers for 6th So 6th, I guess I complicate it a little So tied for 10th is like The Lions and the Niners Are plus 1,800 It's all kind of grouped together The group that's like a step down from there Is the Bengals, the Broncos and the Packers

See I don't know man Like I just don't know if they should be like a tier Above those teams necessarily Maybe the Packers because I just talked about I have like a lot of questions about what the ceiling of that team is. Whereas at least this team like between Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel and if the defense doesn't take that much of a step back, I can see the ceiling a little bit easier.

I just, it feels like, it feels aggressive is all. It feels a little aggressive. I think it comes back to this idea that I think we're baking in them being elite on offense to be placing them here. And I, maybe we just should be doing that. Like maybe with Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel, on the offensive line improvements, we should just be doing that. but I think that there are reasons to maybe pump the brakes a tiny bit

before we're just penciling that in, even if we can see it working out that way. All right, Dave, what's your next one here? Your next team that you cannot quite get a handle on. You're going to sense a theme here because it's the division that's been keeping me awake at night since March when all of the personnel moves started happening. The Minnesota Vikings.

And we don't have to spend a lot of time on it because it's pretty obvious. but like the Minnesota Vikings are Schrodinger's team. They're just they're in the box. They like, you know, the box opens in week one and they could be a really good team that wins 11 games. Or maybe they're a seven and 10 team that finishes last in the division. I do feel like those are the two options. Seven and 10 or 11 and six and a wildcard team.

I, it would be surprising to me if the Vikings were anywhere in between that. Like I just this, this feels like. Like, Kyler's either going to hit like gangbusters and remind people that he's not a bum and this is going to be a pretty good team or it's going to blow up in their face and both quarterbacks are going to play and they're just, it's going to be disgusting and we're not going to want to talk about them by November. Those are the two, those are the two paths I see in front of the Vikings. They were also on my short list because I really am not sure what to do with all this. There's a bunch of different reasons for it.

The Kyler part is obviously the biggest question. And I think that the offensive line being healthier than it was last year, the running game being better. I mean, there are just so many different things that could feel more potent about this offense. I guess potency isn't really, maybe isn't the best way to frame it. They felt potent in years past, just more complete, just where it feels a little bit less volatile, where you can run the ball a little bit more, feels a little bit more consistent. And that's independent of whatever they get from Kyler. And the other part of this that I think kind of leads to some indecision and some curiosity,

what we've been hearing out of training camp, and again, you never know how real any of this stuff is and whether it's actually going to make an impact when the season starts. But this rookie class has gotten more buzz for the Vikings than any, I mean, they really haven't had many real rookie classes in the last few years. But this team has won a bunch of games under Kevin O'Connell without that injection of, like, rookie talent and drafted talent that we often see from other teams that make a jump. Right? Think about all the other teams that get to an elite level and winning a lot of games.

For the most part, at least one or two of those seasons is fueled by you just get this class of rookies that come in and make the team feel so much different. The Vikings haven't had that. What if this is the year where that happens for them on defense in conjunction with them getting better quarterback play, a better running game? And now it's coming from two to. directions. If the stuff that's coming out of Vikings camp about their rookies is even half accurate, because you can't just take it at face value. It's, you know, the way that drills are

structured are, like, it's been pads for like five days. Yeah, exactly. Like, you can't take it at face value, but if the hype is even half accurate, then I'm so excited to watch this team. Like, Ty Felton's out here doing Justin Jefferson impressions and all the defensive rookies are having the camp of their lives to hear it from people that are there. I can't buy in on that completely, but there's enough buzz there to have me really, really interested in the young players on this team. And like, I think for me a lot of the, I also on my short list, by the way, I think this is like the team of the exercise.

But I, the offense is like its own thing with Kyla Marie. We don't know. The defense, like, I think I'm not taking it as much of a given that they'll just be a top five defense unless like most of these rookies hit. because I think otherwise, like, I know that Brian Flores always does an excellent job, like getting the most out of his talent, but Dallas Turner being like a starting guy, like, who's like taking even more snaps now. I think that that's like potentially a downgrade from like Gernard. Corner, I still like they're going to be able to be fine and get by,

but I think now with like Harrison Smith no longer being there, like the safety concerns me a little bit more. Like it just does not feel like they have enough star talent here unless Caleb Banks is awesome or like Jake Golda is a really good player right away or Dominique Orange is really good. Like they kind of need them to pop, I think, in a way that is hard to get a gauge on. Unless Charles Demings is all rookie right away, which is what I'm hearing out of Vikings Camp, Derek, it's the buzz is ridiculous. Like I said, I refuse to buy it completely.

But day after day, it's either the young defensive linemen, the young corner, the young receiver, like every time I check in on them, there's something new. And because I think, I think if they're going to be a. let's say 12-win team, like if they're going to somehow get back to those heights. I don't think it will be the offense being elite. Like, I do think Kyler Murray is going to help them, but I don't think it's going to be an elite offense. I think they'll just be pretty good. I think it still has to be this team being like that level of team has to be off the back

of the defense being like a top five unit again. And like the formula is we're a top half of the league offense. We're pretty good. We're more consistent. And the defense still absolutely kicks ass. And I think for us to get there, like at least two of these rookies, I think have to be like pretty good. players right out of the gate. Your hesitance about the ceiling on the offense, is that mostly about what a Kyler-Murray-led offense can have as a ceiling independent of all the stuff that's around him?

Yeah, I think so. And like, I think that's fair. Because Kylo Murray's so funny. I think he is in a spot where he is either overrated or underrated at all times. It's so true. He's another one of those guys that I think it's the same as that it's similar sort of consideration with the Shuck conversation where because he was so much better than people expected, it's, warped how we talk about him because Kyler Murray is so much better than J.J. McCarthy. It's just warping how we're talking about Kyler Murray in these circumstances. Yeah. And it's always like he's either like on these huge vacillations. Like there's times where he's got like a nine week stretch where he looks like an MVP. And it was like that was probably a little

us getting over our skis. Like he had a good stretch, but he probably was never that caliber of good consistently. But then we're at the point last year where like last year kind of goes poorly. He gets benched. He has some of the like, is he injured? Is he not injured? And I think we're like forgetting that for the most part, he'd never been a bad quarterback before that. Like, he'd maybe had some stretches where he was average or something, but he'd never been bad. And so I think if you just put like quarterback 16 play on what the Vikings were last year, it's like, yeah, that's probably an offense that's knocking on the door of top 10. They were nine and eight with quarterback 35 last year. All right, Derek, what's your next one? Next team you can't get a handle on.

Okay. this team is probably going to be bad, but I truly just mostly cannot figure out one side of the ball and what they're going to be. The Arizona Cardinals, I actually have a really hard time figuring out what they're going to be. I thought about them as well. I don't think this is a weird tag.

I think this is great. They have the hardest schedule in the NFL. They won not very many games last year. The quarterback situation, them like going into the year with Jacoby Brissette, like people are not that excited about the coaching staff. I get it. I get all of that.

But you look at this team. they were the second most injured team according to adjusted games loss since 2001 according to FTN. And some of that I think is like the Murray being on IR even though he wasn't. But like still, this was a team that was banged up all the time. Offense, I think we can have some total different considerations about like, well, is it going to be that much better, you know, because Jacoby Resett is still the quarterback, whatever. On defense, this team was eighth in DVOA for the first nine weeks of the season.

Like they, and some of that was like them doing funky shit with the safeties. and I think maybe just catching teams early. And some of that stuff like, but it will, it will. But I think some of that stuff early in the season plays better than it does late. Like I think even some of the Brian Flores split stuff. It's like a similar sort of bucket. At the same time, Will Johnson missed weeks 9 and 10 and then was kind of on and off the injury report after that.

Max Melton mixed four games over that stretch down the half, down the second half of the season. Walter Nolan obviously missed time early, but then also missed a handful of games down the stretch with a knee. Daydrian Taylor Demerson mixed weeks 11 through 15 with an ankle injury. Jalen Thompson missed week 15 and 16. And Mack Wilson, who was their green dot guy, missed most of the like from the Seattle game and on, which is like right after that week nine cutoff point that I said. So like half of their starting defense basically was not playing. And so I don't think all of these guys are perfect players.

But I just think that there's a chance that like year three in the system, maybe a guy like Nolan takes a step, maybe Will Johnson's even better. and they're just not catastrophically injured, that, like, this can actually be a team that, like, keeps them in games

and gives their offense a fighting chance. When I was there, somebody in the organization said this to me, and I think it's a good point. And sometimes you hear this and it's a little bit of cope

from people in the building, but I think this is a good consideration with this team. What's worse about the roster now than it was heading into last year? We saw them lose games. That's it. Like, we saw it happen.

Like, that's it. But I don't really think the roster. If anything, the roster's better. You look at the offense now because last year, what did we say about the offense? They didn't do anything. And obviously, you know, losing Kylo Murray for Jacoby percent, whatever. But the offense adding an awesome running back, adding a guard that we think is pretty good. And even Kendrick Bourne is like a third receiver, I think is better than the guys that they were trotting out there last year for that.

It's like, the roster kind of just looks better. This feels like, this feels like offseason cope to me. I got to be honest with you. And I'll, I think that's a good point, Mays, that, The roster is solid or at least better than given credit for. And at the very least, I will meet you in the place of saying, you know, the Cardinals right now are viewed as this year's tank team and like they're just, they're not an NFL caliber team.

That's bullshit. That's not true. They're better than that. This is very different than the situation the Miami Dolphins are in. Extremely different. Isn't the best case scenario? Like, the best case scenario for this year's Cardinals feels very similar to last Shears Saints, where everybody is shitting on you throughout the summer and by the end of the

year, you're picking eighth instead of first. And like, that is an accomplishment. You're still picking in the top 10. And the best case finish for you in the division is probably third. Like, very best case is probably third. And even that might take some other shit happening to some other teams. Yeah, that's, I think that's even generous. And I'm imagining a world where something goes terribly wrong.

for one of the other three teams. Two things can be true at the same time here. The Cardinals can be a team that is set up to win six games this year and be one of the worst teams in the league. But they can also not be this completely barren wasteland of talent that is going to be a joke. The division that they play in and having to play against those three teams six times, and we'll see what happens with the Niners, obviously, right?

Like, it gets more worrisome by the day. but for the most part, you're having to play six games against teams that are set up to win a lot of football games. But I think they can, the Cardinals can be a team that finishes near the bottom of the NFL and wins and not be a team that people are just like, wow, this is disgusting. Like they're, they're incompetent. They don't have any players. I think those two things can coexist at the same time. And I think we're not talking about them as a team that can bring a level of competency to the 2026 season. I think they actually are.

I'm hip to y'all's game. Because y'all are excited about the Cardinals because they're going to be a mainstay on the hangover. And in the second half of the year, you're going to be like, are you seeing all this crazy shit? Nick Rawlis did it again, baby. And meanwhile, the actual record is like 4 and 11, but y'all are just having the time of your lives. Well, and I will say, because the schedule is going to be so hard, they play in their division.

I think they're over underwin total is like around four wins. I probably don't think it's going to be much higher than that. But I do think that like what am I trying to get a handle on? The defense finished the year, 27th and weighted DVOA. But like I said, the first nine weeks of the season, they were top 10. I'm trying to figure out which, because that's like the literally, almost as far as you can get in terms of like being on different ends of the band. I'm trying to get a handle on which one I think they actually land in. I think this is, I think part of this also is that we see a team without a clear.

And talking about this, Dave, when we were discussing. like the amount of teams that you know what they're doing, you see the path. How many teams are in as unsettled of a quarterback situation when it comes to the future as the cardinals are? I would say zero. Like the dolphins already have Malik Willis and probably will be picking at the top of the draft. The Jets have Gino Smith this year. The Jets have 17 first round picks next year.

The Browns have multiple first round picks next year. So in terms of the multi-year outlook at the position, I think the Cardinal, have the murkiest quarterback future, probably of any team in the league. And I think that is encroaching on the way that people are thinking about them in a way that kind of seems like overkill. I think we're overrating what that means for this year's version of the team. Like, Jacoby percent isn't an exciting option. I don't think Jacoby percent is a completely incompetent NFL quarterback.

Oh, not especially if they can actually run the ball the way that they're hoping to. Like that, the opposite is like they have a lot of good players on that offense. they have a lot of good players on that offense. They could be a totally acceptable offense on that side of the ball, especially too, if Matt Lafleur actually has something to him. Like, there's a chance that, like, I just, again, I think trying to figure out the win total is hard because they do play such a bloody schedule.

But I don't know, man. I just feel like them getting lumped in with, like, the jets and the dolphins. I just, I'm like, I don't know. They feel like a better team than that to me. That is right. I think that's exactly where I land. The win total is hard to pin down.

but they are not a team where, and the Jets, again, we don't have to do this whole thing of the Jets again. I like a lot of the underlying talent that is currently emerging on the Jets. I just have such little faith in the coaching staff that it's hard to get excited about the Jets. I think the Cardinals are in a slightly different situation and it's a slightly different set of considerations with this team.

We'll see. Maybe they win two games and we all look like morons. But right now, I just think that they're going to be a little bit easier to watch than that. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a few more of these teams we can't quite figure out. It's so telling that each of these discussions turns into like a 12-minute thing because we're just arguing against ourselves because that was inevitable when it came to the show. It's completely inevitable. Here's, I'm going to go with a team that is actually tied with the chargers in those Super Bowl lots.

This might seem like a weird one, but I've had a hard time with them all off season. I can't really get a handle on what the Patriots are. interesting this is good i i kind of think they're going to kick ass so i look at it i and i will fully admit this a good chunk of this how much i can't really say but a good chunk of this is being so scarred by what the playoffs looked like and i think that's partially unfair you know you play four of the top teams and weighted defensive dv oa in the playoffs including the teams that finished first and second you played the texans in a rainstorm and it was third 35 degrees.

You played the Broncos in a snowstorm. So there are a lot of reasons why the offense didn't look very good. But I think that part of this is looking at the season that Drake May had and being like, no, this is real. I know the schedule was bad, but this is real. And then feeling a little bit burned by how the playoffs went. And I think that's in the back of my mind as I think about the offense. But if you come down in a place where let's just say it's kind of a middle ground between

them being the most efficient offense in the league for a chunk of the season and being really ugly in the playoffs and that in reality against an average schedule they're the 12th best offense in football last year which i think is real i think that's reasonable right if that's the case and you look at the improvements they made this off season i think it's easy to talk yourselves into them being like a firm top eight offense with a j brown coming in with the offensive line improvements But I think, again, in order to get there, you have to believe that it's closer to what they were during the regular season last year than what they were in the playoffs.

And I think I feel a little bit burned by the playoffs. And then you go to the defense, and I really like what Zach Kerr did last year. He did a really good job with the talent that they had. Derek, can you look me in the face and tell me the defensive personnel right now for the New England Patriots? It's better than it was at the end of last season. Well, it's not better.

If you're trying to make any case that they will be a better unit overall, it's just that Zach Kerr is in year two. And the players they added might make the defense different. So you're hoping that different means better. But I don't know that that is necessarily true. Isn't that worrisome? Which part, what, that they're going to be worse? I don't think that they'll be that much worse, though.

The case that you just made to me doesn't feel like a strong case. That's all I'm going to say. I don't think the I don't think the defense is going to like be some like elite unit but I think that the offense is going to be so good that it's going to be fine who did the defense lose that's keeping you up at night I guess Tonga and Hawkins are both on and then Hawkins and it's like it's you guys cannot talk to me

Cheson is replaced by Dreammont Jones though so I'm fine with that yeah it's just a different sort of player but like it's not as though they lost these like superstar level talents, but they lost some guys that played well for them last year. And like Kevin Byard is exciting when it comes to creating turnovers. Kevin Byrd, there's a reason. I think the Bears were willing to move on when they needed to replace two safeties.

I'm not sure this defense is significantly better with Kevin Byard instead of Jalen Hawkins. And so the defensive personnel, I don't think is better. And even if we liked what the coaching staff did last year, I still think the realistic outlook for this unit is probably like a slightly above average defense. And so I think then it gets back to what you think the offense is going to be. And I think it's because of what happened in the playoffs last year, I'm just not sure where I land on the starting point. Right.

I think that's the question here. Where is the offense starting from as you consider the A.J. Brown edition, the Elijah Vera Tucker edition, the Romeo Dobbs edition. And I think I don't have a good handle on that. So I don't know how I feel about where they finished. So you are, hang on, I got a I got to. to pull up the exact ranks. Like, were that worried about how they did against the first, second, and fifth defense

in DVOA in a row last year? And the charges who were also in the top ten. And the chargers who are also good. I'm not. I refuse. The only thing, the only thing that gives me pause about the Patriots is they're playing a much harder schedule this year and they share a division with one of the most consistently good teams of the decade.

And so could they be in a situation where? where they're having to, like, do the wild card bit, and maybe they're 10 and 7 and playing on the road in the playoffs instead of what they did last year. Yes, that is completely believable to me. But I'm not really very worried about them. I think Drake May is the man, and they upgraded the talent around him tremendously.

Yeah, I think the offense I can cope myself out of it. Even with the playoffs, like one, playing a murderous row is going to be hard on anybody. Two, I've also said even like before Drake May had his struggles, a quarterback's first or second playoff run, I'm usually like, whatever. It's kind of gravy that you even got here a lot of the times. This isn't about Drake May being fraudulent.

This is more about the offense overall. Like the fact that they got pantsed in the Super Bowl. Like I, that's, and it's not the quarterback. It's everything else. Like I guess that's where I come down on it. Is this an offense that was able to pick on some bad teams last year? and when we actually get down to it is like the Josh McDaniels and the rest of the offensive staff and just the setup there, like is it maybe a little bit more vulnerable than it looks for a good chunk of last season? But if Drake, I still believe in.

If Drake May plays at that level on an even somewhat consistent basis, like the Patriots are going to regress this year. They went 14 and 3 and got to the Super Bowl. The odds that they, even if they get back to the Super Bowl, the odds that they do it with that record are not. good. But the regression version of the Pats is still 10 and 7, 11, and 6 with Drake May playing like a Pro Bowl caliber player. Like, I just, maybe I'm not giving it enough thought, but I don't really think you need to overthink it. This is funny because I think this is partially that maybe I'm looking at it as people expect them to be like an elite team. They're over under is nine and half. And so I kind of think that's right. But I guess my, I guess I'm

wondering if people think they're going to be a lot better than that. Which, like, I do, I do wonder where, I think, I'm trying to figure out, like, where some of the, like, super optimism would come from, because I think most people probably agree, even if the offense will take some sort of step back and maybe they were getting a little bit lucky last year because of the schedule, would you add AJ Brown, Romeo Dubs, Elijah Vera Tucker, like, to all of those guys, you get another year in the system. I think we all believe they should be good. I think a lot of the optimism comes down to, like, almost the opposite of what you're

saying with the playoffs saying like we saw the Patriots offense look so bad in the playoffs but we saw their defense look incredible for all of the playoffs so I wonder if there's also like a little bit more like more optimism on that side of the ball than is probably warranted for what they were for a lot of the season I guess this comes down to how good is the offense going to be and I guess I don't really have a handle on how good the offense is going to be whether that's the 12th best offense in the league or the third best offense in the league I don't know and I think I think I think I think there are probably some people that are just completely ignoring the chance that they're the 12 best offense in the league. And I'm not based on how last season ended because I'm having a hard time ejecting that from my mind.

Patts have the same Super Bowl odds as the Chargers. Who do you feel better about the Patriots? Patriots all the way for me. Yeah, I think it's the Patriots. That's interesting, though. Maybe it's the unknown. Maybe it's like the unknown Mike McDaniel part of it where like it's because I, I, I, I haven't seen what that's going to look like.

I can just have boundless optimism for it. And what about the unknown of Drake May could have won MVP playing with good wide receivers, like legitimately really good wide receivers? But I don't think their wide receivers were bad last year. They weren't, but Romeo Dobbs and AJ Brown are a lot better than what they had. It's an upgrade for sure, even if they weren't bad. You think Romeo Dobbs is a better player than Stefan Diggs was for the Patriots last year? I think he's as good as Stefan Diggs was.

And then I think A.J. Brown is an entire universe better than all of the guys that they had last year. Because I will say, I do think some of the, like, if you're a little bit skeptical, I think there is, and this is fair. Like, is A.J. Brown still A.J. Brown. I think I am personally willing to believe he is very much still A.J. Brown. And last year was just sometimes shit happens and guys need to go play for different teams. And I think I'm willing to buy that with this team. I will, about the 12th offense thing, do you think that's their floor or just like a more realistic outcome? I just, I don't know.

I don't know. And I think that's, you guys reacting this way, I think is part of the reason I wanted to include the Patriots here. Because I think other, a lot of people are just looking at this and being like, we get the Drake May season we had last year. We add AJ Brown. We're going to the moon. And I'm just like, are we, are we sure about this? Like, I don't know. I just think I have more questions.

And part of this is the taste left in my mouth by how the offense looked at the end of last year. Now we're just adding a couple pieces to it and thinking that's going to be the thing that fixes everything. I felt the exact same way about the taste in my mouth left by the Chargers offense. They're completely starting over. And so I think that's why I'm a little bit less concerned about the way that last season ended for the Chargers, even though I think both of those units looked really ugly in the playoffs. So I think a lot of people are just treating this as like a given that A.J. Brown plus last year's Patriots is going to mean the fifth best

offense in the league. And I just think I have more doubts about that. And I might be completely wrong in seeing it that way. But I think that's the point of the show is that I can't get a handle on it because I feel like there's a gap between how I'm seeing this and how everyone else is seeing this. I just think the bad version of the Pats is still going to be pretty good, even if they don't come close to what they did last year. And I think my other thing is like,

Mike Frible's a damn good ball coach, man. Like, I just don't think that they'll be bad. And the teams that kind of petered out at the end of the Tennessee era, the rosters were just way worse than what he's working with currently on this Patriots team, I think they're going to be bad. But could they, is there a world where they go like eight and nine? I don't think so. If Drake May gets hurt. I would be shocked if they have a losing record with Drake May playing 17 games.

I would be stuck. I guess I'm just, I guess I'm just. more down on them that other people are. And I can't quite articulate why. Like there's just this, like, I don't know, there's this feeling I have that I'm having trouble reconciling. The playoffs for brutal. That's part of why I want to include that. That's why I think a lot of things are true. Last year was kind of fake and they probably did not belong there. Like they were not a team, they were not a caliber of team that typically makes the Super Bowl. And they also, even in getting there, kind of hobbled there because the offense was just not good for a majority of those games for

for a majority of those minutes. At the same time, I still think that, like, the core of what they were was pretty good, especially with Drake May, Josh McDaniels coming back. And they've added, when he's playing at his best, what, like the fourth best receiver in the league? Like, I just, I think I'm willing to get there with this team. I'm willing to buy it. You guys are starting to talk me into it. I guess I just feel a little bit burned, and I feel like I can't quite get a handle

on what they really were during the regular season last year. That's at the core. That's the crux of this. I will say this. They obviously get four games against the dolphins and jets, but other than that, it really is a loaded schedule, at least in the preseason. Who knows how it'll age. But there's not a lot of quote unquote weeks off on this schedule.

And so by the time December rolls around, I don't think we'll be debating how good the Patriots are, which we're definitely doing in December of last year. some of these playoff teams are not going to be as good as we think they're going to be. Somebody has to be a little bit worse, and I'm just trying to figure out who's going to be a little bit worse. All right, let's hit a couple more of these. Dave, you got one more for me, a team that you can't quite get a handle on for this year. Let's do these last couple pretty quickly. Yeah, we can do this one quickly because we just talked about them.

I promise, if you listen to the show, you already know I felt this way because I was bitching about them a few days ago, the commanders. And now on top of how tenuous the whole thing feels on offense, they lost. Laramie Tunsel to a torn tricep, which that's nobody's fault. That sucks. Hopefully he can come back as quickly as possible, but I already felt terrible about the offensive infrastructure heading in. And now you don't have your best offensive player or your best non-quarterback anyway.

And so, you know, they remind me a little bit of last year's Texans, ironically, because C.J. Stroud had shown this crazy high potential. they had gone far in the playoffs. And it was the offensive line for Houston where you're like, are you doing enough to put your year three quarterback in a position to succeed? I don't feel as terrible about the commander's offensive line, at least pre-tunsel injury as I did about the Texans last year. But I just, I look at it and I'm like, did you do everything you could to put him in the best position possible?

And I know the defense needed to get better. But if you, if the defense jumps from 35, first to 17th and the offense is just abysmal. Does, is anybody going to give a shit? And so, like, when you're trying to make the most of a rookie contract and a guy that's shown you, he can get you within a game of the Super Bowl, this entire offseason, I just felt like the commanders weren't really doing that. And now injury has exacerbated the problem.

I love that this is just Dave going back to look how they massacre my boy. Yeah. Help my guy. Come on. I get what you're saying. This is a team I have a hard time getting a handle on too, in part because I think that Jaden Daniels, the best version of Jaden Daniels is so good that they could be fine.

They could have been fine offensively, and I think it's harder to make that case now that Tunsell was hurt. The defense, there's a chance that they just spent a small fortune on defensive players, and they're still bad. Like, that's absolutely still possible. Because none of these, like, I think some of these guys are nice players. are any of these pro bowlers, except for like maybe Odafe Owe in his best seasons?

You can't build a defense of pro bowlers and free agency. It's not possible to do that. But they don't even have like any others like from their roster that they're retaining either. So like unless Sunny Stiles is the defensive rookie year, which I'm willing to put on the table, that's kind of it as far as guys that I would be like, I would bet that they can make a pro bowl this year. I think it's hard to build a really good defense without enough of those guys.

I think so too. And I think it's hard to build a really good team Without a lot of in-house draft picks That are good players And this team just doesn't have a lot of those guys I mean that this thing is built on a foundation That feels very wobbly And I think that's to me

That's what it comes back to when I think about How excited I could possibly be about the commanders All right, Derek, you got one more I do and we can keep this quick Even though they're the team we talk about the most probably I do have a hard time figuring out what I want to do with the Kansas City Chiefs. There over under is 10 and a half.

And there's one part of me, there's one part of me that says Patrick Mahomes, when he's out there, even for as ugly as it looks, they're a top eight offense side unseen. Every time. No matter what, no matter anything else, they're a top eight offense. But he's coming off of an ACL injury. So I'm not entirely sure how some of that is going to work and what he's actually going to look like. It almost feels like they're rushing him back a little bit.

And like he's special enough that like maybe it's fine. but I do think it throws a little bit of a wrench in that. I don't know, man. I said to Dave, I'm a little bit scared about it. We were talking about it coming into training camp, and Dave was like, it seems like he's just going to practice.

And I was like, well, let's see what that means, right? Like, if you're just sitting back there in the gun and doing some static team stuff, that's one thing. Have you watched the clips of him in practice? Dude, they're boot.

He's just practicing. Yes, he's just playing, which like. Which that is, like, again, credit to Dave, and I will make a cop on that. That's impressive. Like him being like, I'm under center, I'm booting out.

I'm doing everything just like on August 7th after tearing his ACL midway through the season. That is some impressive shit. He threw, I know the clip you're talking about. He booted out and contorted his whole body to heave like a 45-yard strike. It's unbelievable. And so like, yeah, can he actually do that in October? I mean, I hope so.

Like, obviously the first eight years of his career, whatever would tell me he'll be fine. but I do think trying to gauge like because I will say like even though every time he's been out there, they're a top eight offense. I do think the difference between 100% Patrick Mahomes and 85% Patrick Mahomes is like the difference between another or not this offense functions or not. Like he is that much of a load bearing player. And so I do wonder about that a little bit. And then even on the defense like I'm optimistic about it, it's like six new starters and

probably going to be structurally different than it's ever been. So I have a very hard time figuring out what I actually want to do with that side of the ball even. I think that's fair. This is actually the perfect team for the exercise, even more so than the Vikings, because the last time we talked about the chiefs as not a contender was heading into Patrick Mahomes's first season as the starter. And they've just been in that category ever since. Even last year, like we didn't know they were going to bottom out last year. and I didn't accept they were going to bottom out until it happened. And so now trying to slot a team with that much context and history into a new landscape is it's very difficult to do, even if Patrick Mahomes wasn't coming off of an injury.

Here's what I'll say. We've done this for, I was on Barnwell's show. I don't know when it's running, but we already recorded it. We were talking about all the teams that are moving to under center and what it could potentially do for their offense. Washington, Philly, the Bengals doing a little bit more. of it. What if the chiefs are one of those teams? What if the chiefs are just structurally changing the offense, even though Andy Reid is still the coordinator? And now we're taking Patrick Mahomes, all these other quarterbacks where it's like, man, what sort of benefits can they enjoy from

doing this a little bit more? Think about, you know, the what potentially waits for you on the other side of making it a little bit easier on the quarterback. What if we're doing that with Mahomes? There is, there is a part of me that wants to believe that. There is another part of me that looks at Travis Kelsey being your starting tight end and your other receivers being Xavier worthy who weighs about as much as I do by the end of season. Tyquan Thornton is 185 pounds. Cyrus Allen is 180 pounds. Rashi Rice does not seem healthy. Yeah, it's fair.

I do think that there is a little bit of like if you get under center, being a little bit bigger and having those guys be able to block for you and do some of that stuff I do think is important. And the fact that they have not had that for a long time. Well, if he's your best guy, as far as that goes, I, I'm a little concerned. It is true. I'm just glad you mentioned Cyrus Allen as like a big piece of the puzzle.

They might need them to do. Personnel-wise, you're right. I mean, they obviously are set up to play a different way. I'm just wondering where we land with the Chiefs offense. Like, I think that's going to be the biggest question is like, do we get to a place where if they can stay a little bit healthier

and they're doing just a little bit to make things easier on this? And they're more explosive on the ground. Are we going to, again, are we going to wake up on Halloween? and this is the best offense in the league or the second best offense in league and we all feel silly. Because it almost reminds me a little bit.

And again, they brought in, it was a new coaching staff last year. But what happened with the Cowboys last season where I'm not asking you to become, like last year's Seahawks when it comes to like under center and run rates? I'm asking you to get to a place that's like slightly in line with the rest of the way the league is playing in order to make things a tiny bit easier on your,

I mean, in Dax's case, top eight, in Mahomes' case, top two quarterback, top three quarterback. If they can do that, is there a world where the offense is just more dynamic than it's been over the last couple years? I can see that happening, even if it's a little bit harder to believe because I still have so many questions about the receiving and skill position personnel. Well, and I can see that happening too, but I think getting to the spot of what we're just talking about of like structurally, what does that actually look like? I do think I have a hard time getting there. Even if like on its face, I actually can believe in kind of optimistic that Kenneth Walker will have this cascade effect for all the explosives and stuff and allow the offense to be good. But I think trying to figure out what it looks like plus is Mahomes actually 100%.

I think those actually give me like a little bit of a I'm not sure where I land. My light going off is a, it's almost like I'm getting the wrap up sign. That's what's happening right now. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll actually be back on Wednesday this week and take tomorrow off, but then we will have shows the rest of the week, including our next Beat writer mailbag on Saturday.

Please be on the lookout for that. Until then, appreciate it. Talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.