The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - The value of modern linebackers & playing Star-Starter-Bust with the 2022 edge rushers with Diante Lee

Episode Date: April 18, 2022

With the 2022 NFL Draft class being ripe with pass rush talent, what is the true value of modern linebackers in today's game? Our own Diante Lee sits down with Robert Mays to analyze the position ahead of the Draft and dig into some of his favorite prospects before they play a game of Star-Starter-Bust with the defensive end class. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Monday, April 18th. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, the Athletic Zone, Deante, how you doing, man? Feeling good. It sounds better the second time for whatever reason. Listen, now you're here.

Now it's real. It's not novel anymore. You are around, you are an employee, you're writing all the time. How's your first couple weeks been? It's been great. It's been great. Obviously, you know, stepping in, having a piece like comparing the edge rushers, A, I walk in knowing that it's probably going to perform well and then you get the dopamine

hit of, you know, all the retweets in the comments and all that. So that was nice. And then just kind of spreading my wings into other things. You know, I was telling some of the other guys that worked up the company that invited me under their podcast that I've sounded like a free agent, you know, going on like radio, going on all the radio tour. I'm like, oh, man, I'm just glad to be a part of the team trying to provide a spark, some energy, you know, be a part of the culture, all of those good things. So it's been a lot of fun, man.

It's been a lot of fun to kind of hit the ground running, especially what I'm working on, given the time of year that we're in. I was able to kind of hit the ground sprinting in a lot of ways. So it's been a lot of fun for me. It's an exciting time. We got a couple weeks until the draft. Just so people know, we are doing a live draft show in Las Vegas this year.

Me, Nate, and Dane are going to be live the entire two nights, rounds one and rounds two and three on Thursday and Friday. We're going to have a podcast for rounds four and seven, but just going to come out in the feed like it typically would. As part of that live coverage, which you guys can watch on YouTube, on Twitter, wherever you'd watch our typical live Sunday podcasts. You are also going to hop in during those two nights,

talk about some of your favorite guys when they get drafted, what you think of the fits. So we're very excited about that, but just want to continue putting that on people's radars here as often as possible over the next two weeks as we get ready for the draft. A little bit later in the show, we're going to play a little game with the pass rushers. Nate brought this up when we were talking about receivers,

the way to think about prospects, the idea of star, starter, bench, or bust. And we're going to do that with this year's pass rush group, the top seven players at that position. Before we do that, though, I wanted to have a conversation about linebackers. And not just the linebackers in this draft specifically, but about the position in general.

Because so much oxygen has been spent and so much ink has been spilled, in the last five years or so about this idea of whether running backs matter. And I feel like the reason we fixate on this conversation is because running backs at their core are the purest football players. If you look back at the history of the sport, some of the first guys to come to mind when you're thinking about what football is boiled down to its essence or running backs, Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, that's what we think about

when we think about the history of the game. And it's been strange to watch the position that holds that sort of prominence in the way that we talk about the sport become marginalized in the modern NFL. And I think that's why there's such a dissonance there and that's why we spend so much time on it. I think you could make an argument

that linebackers are the same thing on defense. Think back at the history of the game and the most prominent defensive players you can think of. Ray Nitchke, Jack, Lembert, Dick Butkiss, Mike Singletary. I mean, these guys have such stature in the history of football. And now we've gotten to a place where linebackers in a lot of ways are marginalized on the

defensive side, not to the same extent, but trending in that direction to the way the running backs are marginalized on the offensive side. So I wanted to kind of zoom out and just talk about the value of linebackers in the modern NFL, where we're drafting them and how those players and the players in this draft class potentially fit into that conversation. So to me, and this was one of the things I was working on when I was kind of talking about and evaluating some of the linebackers, you know, and I hate interfacing with the game in this way because I find it to be like the least compelling way to digest football,

but it does have real, real world implications. And that's looking at people's contracts values, right? Yeah. So I'm up and I'm looking at. I'm looking at all the sites that we use that kind of measure what people are making. And as I'm scrolling at different positions, I'm like, okay, this makes sense, this makes sense. And I get to linebacker and I'm like, wait, hold on. I'm looking at these players that are very good that are making like $4 million, you know, on AAV,

that have played at like Pro Bowl or all pro level. So I'm looking and making sure that I'm not missing anything. And that's where I kind of came to the same realization that you were just articulating earlier, which is that, man, for a position where when you ask me what a haul of, Famer on defense looks like, I'm sure the first three to five names that come to mind are going to be linebackers for me. Right. You know, exactly. You know, Brian Erlacker.

I think about all the guys that I grew up with that have this certain level of prestige. And that is a real way that they were perceived in the NFL. So that's kind of that first, you know, a little bit of dissonance that I'm looking at, you know, is what they're being paid. And then you look at the skill sets in the way that they're changing. And this didn't happen necessarily overnight because I've obviously listened to you podcast. Right. You know, I've listened to you podcast about guys like Patrick Willis and Luke Keekely and, you know, the ways that the position was morphing over the 2010. So to see it now in all of the different ways that linebackers are being asked to be used plus what they're not being paid in relation to other high level role players within the defense. That's kind of been the thing that I've struggled with most. And when we start talking about what the future of the NFL is going to look like at this position. You look back at it. It wasn't that long ago that linebackers were still. being paid like the premier players on defense in the NFL.

Ray Lewis in 2003 signed the second largest APY contract ever for a defensive player in 2003. Michael Strayhan was the only one with a bigger number. Shortly after that, Brian Arlocker, who you just alluded to, signed a nine-year contract that on an annual basis was not that far off from what Ray Lewis was making. These guys were the guys. Okay. And I can understand pretty simply, and you can correct me if I'm wrong here, how we could

trace that devaluation. And that's as simple as the way that offensive personnel change from 2003, even through 2011 or so 2012, when guys like Bobby Wagner and Luke Keekle were drafted, it went from a 12 personnel league, a 21 personnel league, to an 11 personnel league. The game spread out in a very obvious way, really over that decade. So would you say the gap between the Ray Lewis world when he was at his peak and the start of the Keekley Willis, I guess Willis was in the middle of this career at that point, but that 2010's early 2010 range, would you say that change in the way that we think and talk about

the position is mostly driven by offensive personnel changes over that stretch? Yeah, absolutely. And this ties into the same conversations that I think come up between you, me, Nate, a lot of our colleagues that we kind of talk about the trends of the league with, which is that offenses started getting smart enough in how they wanted to attack linebackers. And all of a sudden you start seeing these big-bodied guys get experienced. exposed out in space, right? And defenses are usually the last to the party. And the first thing you're always going to do before you change anything in scheme is you change the bodies that are

doing what, that are doing what you're asking them to do within the scheme. So I would certainly say that little half decade period, I would say it's from like 2011 to 2016, it's probably when we started to see a lot of the changes in, A, what offenses are doing in personnel. And then I think how defenses started having conversations about how to change the body types that we're using around these schemes. So you look at the game in the 2012 through 2016 range like we're talking about here. We know the players. That's the Keekeley-Bobby-Wagner era where those two guys, I think, were the best players at their position. Bobby Wagner is a walk-in hallfamer. Luke Keele, in my opinion, deserves to be a walk-in hall of famer. That coincided with an NFL world schematically that

was dominated by those Seattle ideas, where, I mean, it's not a coincidence that Bobby Wagner's involved in this conversation, where it's a mostly one high world. And that's the way the NFL defenses are shaped. Within that world specifically, what are the responsibilities and considerations requirements for a Mike linebacker, off ball linebacker within that defense? A really good one. What's he asked to do? So number one, starting with the run fit stuff, and this is why I think a lot of linebackers

were able to kind of live in this world for a while, is that you have one gap to fit in the run game, right? So it allows you to be really, really downhill. So you want guys that have that explosion, that quick twitch. You're going to be looking at a player's broad jump, a player's vertical jump, their 10 yards split. How quickly can you get from being a standstill player to flying through gaps and trying to make plays in the backfield?

And then when we extend it to the passing game, and this is something that, you know, you and I have talked about at different times. I think when I was working with my last company is that ability to get an extreme amount of depth in your coverage, right? when you're playing zone. The fact that by certain formations, you might have to carry a tight end or a wide receiver vertically up the field.

So that kind of kick that quick twitch explosion ability that you need. And then you also have to have a certain amount of size to play there because in that single high world, the one thing with lineback is that you're basically always in the box, right? And that means that you are being used, the way the defense is being segmented. So that way linebackers are basically always the ones fitting,

fit in the run in the box, and then having to carry guys vertically in certain formations behind it. So it's very kind of like split-minded. There's a lot of split-mindedness when you start talking about the spread era that was happening at the same time, which is why a Bobby Wagner can look like Bobby Wagner. And then you drop anybody else into that Mike Backer spot within that scheme. And you can ask, you know, all the guys who have left Pete Carroll's incubator and going to run their all defenses in different spots is really hard to find those guys, right? And that's how you end up with those odd, you know, those oddly shaped.

defenses in Atlanta where Dion Jones might be the lightest guy that they have on roster playing within five yards of the line of scrimmage. But he's their mic because he's basically the only guy with the athletic profile to be able to do some of the things that you're asking them to do in coverage when they're not fit in the run. So as defenses have evolved, and as we've gone toward more of a too high world, and we've talked about these trends ad nauseum on this show over the last two to three years, how have the demands on linebackers, offball linebackers, change? change specifically. I would say that now as we get into A, a more, an era where offenses are more comfortable

being spread out, and then B, you know, some of the too high and odd front stuff that we've been talking about. And the front stuff is just as important. We say too high all of the time. But, I mean, we think about the world as it was for so long where, again, we've mentioned this. Four guys, you know where the four guys are rushing from. This is how it is.

And the ways that fronts have changed is just as important. as whatever is happening on the back end. I say that to remind myself as much as anything else, because we don't talk about it enough. Same with me. And I think about the era prior, right, where Tampa Bay looked like they had the preeminent defense, Tampa Bay and Chicago, look like they had the preeminent defenses of the future, too, with the Tampa II stuff. So, you know, when you're talking about transitioning. That's the purest four-man front football you can possibly play as those teams. And it's, we are so far away from that now. And that's like, that's just something I have to keep thinking about because you watch these teams. We're having this conversation. We're

have this conversation later about edge rushers. It even has to change the way I think about edge players. Because I just, you're thinking, you need different stuff. Like the boxes are just so different than they used to look, even for players up front. It just is constantly forcing you to reevaluate how you're talking and thinking about this stuff positionally. Right. So when it comes to linebackers moving to these two high worlds, like what you're

asking these guys, A, it's less of playing downhill having to take on, you know, guards and centers in the gap, you know, in these gaps within the box. there's a little bit more freedom of movement, which is necessary when you're talking about teams that playing 11 personnel and then certain teams that put 11 personnel on the field, but they're always four open, right? Like if you're playing a team like the bills, when Dawson Knox is healthy and available, you're going to be dealing with just as much pure spread as you will guys in the box, if not more so, right?

So you have to have that ability to be able to flex out out of the box, into the box. The defensive front is structured to where you're not playing as downhill. So now we're talking about, you know, tying that athletic ability to more of being a cerebral player, being able to get a certain amount of depth. And that's why guys like Fred Warner, I think, lead the conversation so much. You know, you turn on tape of a guy like Warner and you're watching him get this, get this certain amount of depth in his zone coverage and understanding how to play in certain windows. This guy just ran vertically. So that means there must be something breaking in behind it, being able to take those kind of throws away in the middle of the field. Again, we're talking about differing roles, but all the different.

ways that make it hard to get guys that can do a job like that. There's a reason why there's only one of them. There's a reason why Darius Leonard gets paid what he's paid, you know, and so forth and so on. And there's a reason why, for example, I got like Zach Cunningham can get a nice, hefty contract and then be looking around a few years into the contract and seeing that, oh, the team that gave me this really doesn't even need me here anymore, right? Like, it probably doesn't make sense to pay me this much if they can't trust me on third down. You know, that that's really, I think, where this is going is that linebackers are just becoming, I guess, supersized safeties in a lot of ways.

So here's my question. Is linebacker based on the structure of modern NFL defenses less valuable than other positions the way that we think about it? Or because we've shifted to a world where you don't need to run a 4-4 to be an impactful linebacker in the NFL, where you can be a third round pick like Fred Warner, and you can have these more cerebral traits dictate success. is it just easier for teams to find devalued prospects at that position? Is the position less valuable?

Or can you find guys that are great at it later in the draft? Because that's the conversation you can have about like center, right? Center is a very similar thing. So that's my question. That's what I'm trying to square here. So I guess to answer the question, it's yes, but not because there's anything wrong with the linebackers, right? like kind of to your point of what you were making at the latter into your statement,

I think it's been more that there's just kind of a smoothing in the value for players who play in the box between the tackles, right, or play at most of the game between the hashes. So linebackers are just closer in value to interior offensive line and interior defensive linemen, right? And when we have those conversations about those players, it's always like, hey, yeah, maybe the center might be a potential all pro. and maybe he is worthy of the 26th, 27th pick, but I could probably go get a starter level, a reliable starter level player in the third round. And maybe he can develop into a pro bowler.

You know, that's kind of where linebacker is at. And this draft is probably a perfect, you know, opportunity to have a conversation about these types of players. When you think about Christian Harris and Chad Muma, you know, Channing Tindle, you know, Quay Walker, some of the guys that aren't high profile like McCobie Dean or Devin Lloyd, there's a lot of that available outside of the first round. and a lot of value that you can go get with these guys.

And they all have a lot of tape of playing well in coverage, you know, the ability to fit the run. They're coming from these college schemes that are asking teams to do something very similar to what you're seeing in the NFL as well. So that is kind of where I think that we're at, whereas, you know, when I'm looking at teams talk about, hey, maybe we're interested in getting a linebacker with our 15th, 16th, 17th pick. I am kind of cringing now for as much as I hate to say it as a former linebacker because it just doesn't, it's not the optimum use of. of your resources, especially in the offseason. It's also just harder to identify those guys. Absolutely.

You need to have a conversation with these. It's almost like quarterback, where in order to properly evaluate, and I think safety is the same way. I feel like we're having the exact same conversation with safety, where is it nice to have a guy who can run 4-4 and weighs 215 and hits like a Mac truck? Right. Yeah, it probably is, but it's not necessary to have that guy. It doesn't necessarily give him enough of an advantage.

over somebody who runs a 4-6-5 to justify the two-round gap that you're going to have to spend when it comes to drafting these players. So that's cerebral and that awareness, and you watch Fred Warner. I mean, Robert Sal said it on this show last spring, said that the recognition and recall and the pre-draft conversation they had with Fred Warner was the best that he had ever seen in any sort of conversation with a player before the draft. So we know that, right? Like the upstairs between the ears elements of the position dictate success.

What else? What other traits do you think are commonalities between the best linebackers that we see in the NFL right now? I think that we're starting to see guys. I think we're starting to see teams drawn to players from a physical perspective that are maybe a little bit longer, right? And a little bit lighter, right? And when you get longer and lighter, usually the idea is that you're getting more top-end speed. So I think that that's probably a lot of what we're seeing now as well. So guys who have the length, so if they don't have the agility, they buy themselves a little bit of margin for error, right?

Especially now where everybody's playing with these condensed sets with all these wide receivers who run four fours and four fives, right? It does require you to have a little bit of the physical tools necessary to, you know, honor the run and then get your depth into coverage. So when we're talking about things physically, I think that that's a lot of what we're seeing now. And it makes for an interesting, it makes for interesting conversations. And that's how you end up, I think, with a team like the Cardinals, for example, taking a reach on two linebackers and back-to-back first rounds, right? Trying to get guys who fit a certain particular athletic profile. And I understand the thought process behind what they're doing, you know,

and you kind of use that and judge that against maybe what the Bengals do. You know, I was talking with, you know, some of the guys that we work with at the athletic. And he was kind of mentioning to me that a lot of Bengals fans kind of gag when you start talking about third round linebackers because they've taken so many chances on guys that maybe haven't panned out. But it's because you're always scouting for the traits, right? You can't guarantee what's happening upstairs to your point about looking at positions like linebacker and safety the way that you would quarterback.

So, you know, you've got to create. And I was talking to our friend Derek Classen about this too. Like, the more time I spend evaluating these linebackers, the more I'm like, all right, do you just have all the raw traits in the world? I guess I'm just going to take a shot on you then and hope that you have the mind to be able to handle what's happening in the spread passing game. I'm not doing that ever. Right.

I'm never doing that because the traits are going to get overdrafted. And that's what we've seen recently. We continue to see this. You and I talked about this, and we mentioned this on another show I did with Lindsay a couple weeks ago. The history of first round linebackers, the recent history, is a nightmare. It is not good. And you look at it and the guys that don't provide pass rush value that aren't downhill players

struggle to justify that draft spot, right? Devin White is an effective player because he can blitz, because he has pass rush juice, and because he can play sideline to silent. He's not good in coverage. He's not a depth coverage player, but he makes up for that. Michael Parsons is the same way. Roquan Smith, I think, is sort of an outlier in this conversation. He has very little length.

He's short, but has developed into a really good coverage player and a very good overall all-round linebacker. And another guy that you can talk about is in terms. of being cerebral, right? That's another guy that kind of checks that cerebral box. Yes. And even that, even it took him a while. It took him some time to settle into that. Basically his whole rookie year. And you have all these guys like, Devin Bush is a great example where, you know, this, you fall in love with the physical traits and the way he moves and, you know, the sideline to sideline aspects of his game. And then when you get to a world where space is the currency. And that's the way the NFL works right now. Space is the currency. And sometimes you have got. that they can look great on tape, man. It's easy to fall in love with the way they move,

the way they play, the attitude, and as soon as space becomes a bigger part of the equation, they struggle. So the two linebackers, middle linebackers, inside linebackers who were first team all pro last season, Devondre Campbell and Darius Leonard. What do Devondry Campbell and Darius Leonard have in common? The athleticism to trace in the mentality

to be able to play out in coverage. They're also built like condors. Yes. Devondry Campbell has third. 34 inch arms, 92nd percentile for a linebacker. Darius Leonard has 34 and 3 eighth inch arms, which is 95th percentile for linebackers. So as these guys become space players,

the awareness to play in space, and truly just the length and range physically to be able to cover more space practically with your arms and your frame becomes a hugely important thing. Fred Warner's 6.3 in change. Right. He's a tall linebacker. And I feel like I keep coming back to that.

And now this swings me back to this draft class. Right? You watch Nikobe Dean. Nkobi Dean is 5-11-225. That's what I played at in high school. Right. I was once a 5-11, 225-pound football player. He is an otherworldly athlete, even though he didn't test.

But I assume he would test very well. But still, when you consider the president, profile physically that we're seeing from some of the best players in the league, he does not necessarily fit that profile. So are we getting back into this world where we're falling in love with the physicality's obviously there. You watch him play. He's always putting his teammates in position.

He's an awesome communicator. He's clearly a leader. Great blitzer, physical guy. I mean, all of these things that we have associated with linebacker for success for so long, but are we falling in love with those things too much? we think about what the profile at the position currently looks like for success and the recent history of where players going in the top 20 at linebacker and what they've done for their teams. That's the question I keep coming back to.

I mean, that's what I've had to cover all of my analysis with when it comes to a guy like Dean, right? Like you have to separate your love for what you see on film with the precedent that's set in the league. And, you know, I'm always thinking about football, you know, as an analogy to something else. And I think about when you're talking about Darius Leonard, you know, I'm thinking about the NBA. You talk about the all pro players in Devondry Campbell and Darius Leonard with the long arms. That sounds like exactly like what the NBA was talking about five or six years ago with small forwards and power forwards, right? Where, hey, it would be nice to have very specific skill sets. But what pays now is the length to be able to handle all these different things that offenses can do.

And that's exactly where this position is at as well. So when you take that and look at it in the Kobe Dean, it's hard. when you have that in the back of your mind, not to look at the two or three snaps a game where he gets held up by a guard, right, where he can't disengage because he's too close. He's too tight in the phone booth. And then I think about, hey, what is just a league average guard? Their ability to do that to linebackers that don't have the length, you know, in size to be able to keep them at bay.

It's really hard to be able to take advantage of that as a defensive player or to be able to fit the run the way that you need to or should be able to take away some of the digs and the things that we've talked about in terms of passing concepts with these intermediate routes coming across the middle of the field, that length and that size, it really plays a role. So it's hard for me knowing what else is available to say that I would be okay with getting clearly the lightest, clearly the shortest and clearly the shortest armed player, regardless of how athletic I think he is and how smart I think he is to be my lead linebacker in this draft. Would you take any of the linebackers in this class in the first round?

No, no. And this is coming from somebody who is as sympathetic and optimistic to this position that there is out here. I just can't. I can't do it again, knowing what's behind them. For whatever I think I can get out of Devin Lloyd and a Kobe Dean, Chad Muma provides the same, in my opinion. Whatever ceiling I think those two players have, Quay Walker has the same kind of ceiling. You know, whatever run fitter I think they are, Christian Harris is the same level of run fitter. And I would just rather not have spent my first round pick, my five-year contract,

the highest valued contract that I'll have on my roster this year more likely than not. I don't know if that makes sense to go grab a linebacker with it unless I'm a team that is a linebacker away. And I'm not sure that there are any teams in the NFL right now that can say they're a linebacker away for being Super Bowl contending to football team. Is there a guy in that round two to three range that you think does fit the profile that we're talking about? Longer, cerebral is clearly more comfortable in coverage that you think,

aligns with where we're going and where we should be going at the position. If we're talking just raw traits, the best presentation of the raw traits is probably Quay Walker. I think that watching him at Georgia, there were two things that were evident. A, that he started every game for a reason alongside Nikobe Dean, especially in the second half of the year,

because he has the size and versatility to deal with all the different things that offenses might throw at you to open a game. And then the other thing that was extremely evident was that he was basically the only linebacker on the roster that they really trusted to step. step out in space and deal with some of the things that they were trying to do in zone coverage. You know, every once in a while, you'll see Nacobodya maybe split out if an offense goes empty and he's just matched up on the back. But all the different, you know, combo coverages that you'll see from

a Georgia or Alabama guys off that saving tree. When it came to three by one formations and stuff like that where you've got to step out into space, it was consistently Quay Walker that did it and did it at the highest level. So that's the guy that's probably the best presentation of the traits. I think the best mixture of the traits plus the skill set will be Chad Muma. And that's the guy that I've been banging the table for all offseason long. I think that he's a great run fitter. I think he's got enough length, enough quickness. We saw some of it at the combine.

And he can go and play in those intermediate windows, even though he doesn't have, you know, Darius Leonard Devondry Campbell level arm length. I think that he crosses the threshold that you need in terms of wingspan to be able to handle all the different things you're going to see from an NFL offense this time around. for this era. 96 percentile wingspan for Quay Walker, who is 6.3 and 3 quarters. Okay.

Just throwing that out there. Devin Lloyd also has that physical profile. Where are your hangups with Devin Lloyd? To me, I think it's all very, and it comes across as very nitpicky, so sometimes I try to be careful in how I articulate. We're talking about top 10, top 15 picks. We need to be nitpicky. Like that's a real thing.

So to me, it's, I look at him, and to boil it down to a one sentence thing, I look at him and I say for all the struggles that Isaiah Simmons had in year one, I'm looking at a guy who's slower, I think, not as fast of a processor, close to the line of scrimmage, not as good of a tackler and not as good of a coverage player. And I had all of these reservations coming in with Isaiah Simmons who was like, as freaky a freak athlete as you're going to come across to be asked to play the linebacker position. So a lot of it just kind of is those small things like trying to slip box instead of taking them on or taking them on and not being able to disengage, you know, being out on the perimeter.

or one-on-one tackle situations and just lunging for guys. He's another one of those guys that I think it's kind of clear to me that Utah used him as a blitzer on obvious passing downs because they weren't all that comfortable with him playing man-to-man coverage against tight ends or backs coming out of the backfield. I saw a lot of that as well, and I think that for a lot of the conversation that's had about the value that he might add in the past rush game, I don't know that I buy that in the same way that some other evaluators do.

I don't think that I see anything close to what Michael Parsons. did, for example, as a guy who can flex close to the line of scrimmage and add to your pass rush or be a blitzer and win one-on-ones consistently. That's just not in Lloyd's game. And if you're telling me he's a worst version of all those things, then no, he can't be a top 15 pick. And like I said, I would say probably not a first rounder unless it's like 28 to 32. It's funny that you bring up Isaiah Simmons because I think he encapsulates this conversation to a certain degree. Xavier Collins, too, right? Like the Cardinals overall plan. This is a team that spent two first round picks, including a very high first round pick on offball linebackers. We can debate

what Isaiah Simmons's position is, but that's what he is, for the most part. And I was in Arizona last fall, and I was talking to Bill Davis, who is their linebackers coach, long time linebackers coach for your Eagles for a while. He was there when Demiq O'Brien was there, Benley for a long time. And we were talking about, and he was pretty frank with me about the expectations we have for players at that position and the realities for players at that position. Because in so many ways, I think it's considered a plug and play spot where, oh, good athlete, drop him in, he'll be great. And in reality, it's the opposite of that. He said, everybody wants an instant superstar when you draft a guy in the first round. But in reality, that position is based on so many other things.

It's where you fit and spatially your understanding of that, where you fit within the broader details of the defense, that's a sense thing. When you're not used to playing close to the line a scrimmage. When you've played out in a wide open college game where you don't have all these moving parts and there isn't the formational diversity and everything that's flashing in front of your eyes and guys coming across the formation, the way that you're taking in the information is often so different in the NFL than it is in college, the way the routes are distributed, the way that personnel packages work, all of that stuff.

It's not plug and play. There's so many different things you have to sort through. your brain has to be a computer to play that position well as a young player. And I think that forms some of the disconnect between what we've seen from some of these hyperathletes dropped into the middle of defense in first round picks because that's what first round picks are, right? They're hyper athletes. That's why they're drafted there. And I think that's why we've seen an achievement gap and a gap in success between where these guys are drafted and what they end up becoming at the position.

because what the position asks of you is different than just being a great athlete. That's not what it's all about. And I thought that him laying it out like that for me, I was like, oh, that makes a ton of sense, actually. Why do you keep drafting these guys in the first round? Right. That begs the follow-up question. So I just thought that was, I thought that was great.

That's all we got for the linebackers. I want to talk to you about the pass rushers in this draft because obviously these are guys at the top of the draft. I mean, these are some of the three of the, the first three picks in the draft could theoretically be past rushers. It wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world. And this comes one year after we had no pass rushers to go in the top half for the first round, which is always so fun to watch how it vacillates from season to season. So in order to talk about these guys, I wanted to play a little game.

And I'm stealing this from Nate, who said I could use it. I asked him. I wanted to get his stamp of approval before we did this. He brought up this idea of looking at prospects. It's kind of a pie chart of four different qualifications. star, starter, bench, bust. And I wanted you, this is a very difficult thing to ask of you, and you're going to have a lot of receipts here that could potentially put you in trouble.

Oh, of course. I want you to do that for the top seven edge rushing prospects in this class, guys that are kind of on the fringe of potentially going in the first round. A percentage on the chance they'll become a star, a starter, a bench player, or a bust. And I want to lay out those qualifications here, so there's some sort of rubric. A star is a perennial pro bowl player, a top. top five to ten-ish player at that position. I think that we understand what that kind of guy looks like, right? A starter to me is a multi-year starter who gets some form of second contract, not

near the top of the market, but somebody that is going to be there for five to eight years on your team. Some names in that range that I'll just throw out. Josh Sweat to me is like that exact type of player. Leonard Floyd is that type of player. I was going to say Leonard Floyd is like the quintessential. He's like that. Sam Hubbard, the guys like that that are getting $10 million a year extensions to be starting level players on their teams. Emmanuel Ogba, the deal that he just got. Those are the type of players I'm thinking of in that range. Bench guys, those are guys that are rotational players in the NFL.

The three night game names that come to mind, Arden Key, right? Arden Key is a rotational pass rusher right now. Tack McKinley is like that. I think Solomon Thomas, his career, has kind of turned out like that, even though he plays inside outside. guys in that range. And then bust, to me, isn't someone that flames out of the league. I mean, that's often for reasons that have nothing to do with football if you're in and out.

A bust to me is someone who is drafted fairly high and is just struggling to stay on a roster. Like two guys that immediately come to mind there, Taco Charlton is in that conversation to me and somebody like Breeland speaks. You know, guys that were first or second round picks and both in the first three to four years of their careers have spent time on practice squads. So those are the. ranges and the tears that we're talking about in my mind. Worse for me.

All right. For me. Aidan Hutchinson, lay it on me. Starter. Starter. Solid starter. Plus starter, but I don't know if you'll ever tap into becoming a star. And a lot of...

What percentages would you put on it? So if we're coming out percent of possibilities, I would say 65 percent starter, maybe 15 percent star, zero on bust. and say 20% on bench, you know, and even the bench stuff is a lot of like, you know, if something, something would have to go horribly wrong for him to end up on the bench, on the bench end of this pie chart. So you buy into the fact that his floor is very high. Extremely high.

I would say he's probably the safest guy at the top of the edge class. He's probably the safest pick. I think the guy that I said he could step in and be like that's currently playing right now is like Max Crosby, where I'll probably never cross that threshold from, You know, being in the 8 to 10 sack range to the 13 to 15 sack range. But he'll always be at that certain baseline of passable to good, you know, pressure production. Andrew getting a guy who's a great run defender, even if I don't think he's the best run defender in this edge class. So it to me, like when you look at him, his size, his ability and what he's bringing in from day one, that kind of player rarely, if ever, fails in the NFL.

but I just don't see him getting to the next level that would make him a star level pass rusher. Interesting. Okay, that makes sense. I think Max Crosby is a better athlete that Aidan Hutchinson is. I think he's a more explosive athlete that Aidan Hutchinson is. When I watch Hutchinson, there's like, there's some, a decent amount of Twitch, but Max Crosby is like a twitched-up athlete.

And he has more length than Aiden Hutchinson does. Like, when I watch Hutchinson, to me, it's kind of like a more refined version of Trey Hendrickson. I can see that as well. Short arms. He's got more wiggle to him a lot more than Trey Hendrickson does. But comparisons to guys, like people comparing him to the Bosa's, I don't see it at all. At all. Not even close. The level of refinement the Bosa's brought to the league, Hutchinson's game, you can tell he's trying to do a lot, but it's choppy. When he's trying to string stuff together, you can tell there's like a choppiness to it where he's thinking about it. The Bosa's is like the smoothest like blending of everything and the timing of it all.

Like when he had Hutchinson during the Ohio State game and like a side scissors swipe sack that you see the bosses have all of the time. But even when he worked, it still looks more disjointed than a lot more disjointed than when the bosses do it. Like their moves all blend into one another in a way that's incredibly seamless and natural. His is like he's trying. You can see the work he's putting into it. And that's not necessarily a bad thing.

He's clearly a hard worker. Like the guy plays with his hair on fire. But there isn't like a natural smoothness to his game the same way that those guys have. No, 100%. I mean, the Bosa thing was going to be what I brought up if you hadn't. He's just not that level of technician. And I would say just not that level of athlete when you talk about changing pad levels, your ability to play with your feet outside of your frame, which is a big piece of being able to bend off the edge.

and still be able to use your leverage and power. So he definitely, I would say that he doesn't have that. So, and I understand some of the dissonance that comes up with, with Hutchinson in particular, because you see the three cone time and you'll see like the short shuttle time. And then you compare that to his size and you say, well, guys who run a sub seven second three cone should be able to, you know, work this kind of change of direction and bin. And the change of direction is a part of his game. It's just not, it's just not in the way.

Right, exactly. It's like great on inside crossovers. It's great if he can get a long arm down your chest and be able to finish inside or out. Like, he's good in those types of ways, not in the, I'll tear off up the field. I can make contact with the guy, play with my feet outside the frame, and still be able to work a primary move to a counter if he beats me on my initial rush. He's just not that guy. And I think a lot of that does come back to the fact that he has shorter arms. Do you that worry you?

Because the lack of length does show up. It does show up. When you watch and play, it's like, oh, he feels like a guy who doesn't have long arms. I mean, he can't, there's no running from it. He can't run from it on tape. It doesn't mean that he gets dominated, but if you'll watch a team like Michigan State, right, who does a decent amount of run game stuff or an Ohio state who was running the ball relatively well in the first half of that game before the flow of the game kind of took them out of what I think they were planning to do, he does get caught up on tackles that have the length to get into his body.

And you can see him set the edge and then not be able to disengage when the ball bounces is outside because he's still stuck, you know, trying to take on a tackle or a tight end. So it does show up. And it is a minor concern. I don't think it makes him a bad run defender at the NFL level. He's just not going to be a Trevon Walker who will get to. You know, he doesn't have that type of ceiling. He's not going to be a Jermaine Johnson by that measure.

You know, he just does not have that. And a lot of that is being 6-7 and not having 6-7-sized arms, right? A 6-7-sized wingspan. It's kind of wild that he's that tall and his arms are so short. It doesn't make any sense. be built like that. But that's the arm length thing as part. It brings me back to Hendrickson in a way.

He also has very short arms. And he succeeds in a very narrow band. What the kind of player he is, it still doesn't make sense that he's like a 10-sat guy in the NFL. It's all very specific to him. Like everything he does is specific to him. Hutchinson has more refinement to his game than Trey Hendrickson does. And that's why, like, if he's just a little more polished version of Trey Hendrickson,

that to me is a really good player. But that's not like a superstar level player in the NFL. Which is also why I don't have him as my number one edge, even though I understand why he stands where he stands now. All right. Kvon-Tibato, give me your percentages. Percentages, I'll say, this is the one that's going to get, it's probably going to get me ratioed one day. I'm going to say 40% star, 40% starter, 20% bench, and again, 0% on bust. I don't believe that there's any bus potential there.

40% star. That's what I see for it. All right. Justify this. So a lot of this is it, and this is all projection on my end, and this is why I'm sure I'm going to get ratioed for this because I'm positive, but it won't play out. No one listens to this podcast. You're going to be totally. A lot of this, I think, is going to be him getting someplace where he can be properly developed as an edge rusher.

And by properly developed, that doesn't mean that he's stepping in at zero, right? Like the way I say it with Tibido and the way I'm going to talk about Tramon Walker, I'm going to say the same things. but the distance between the two is very, very different. So with Tibido, it's less about not having a plan and maybe just approaching pass rush the wrong way. And we kind of talked about it with Hutchinson, right? You can see that he's trying to work his hands. He wants to get this two-way go going. I want to be this great technician.

I see a lot of that with Tibido as an edge rusher as well. And it makes me tear my hair out because I'm like, dude, you are not only the best athlete on the field. You are probably the best athlete within a thousand mile radius here. why are we trying to play around with our hands and work this, you know, very specific two-way go? And you can see it when they played UCLA. You can see it when they play Cal where for whatever reason the light goes off and he remembers, my first step is maybe the best first step in college football. Nobody can block me if I get my second foot in the ground before he gets to the bottom of the pocket.

And then he starts killing quarterbacks and killing tackles. I watched the UCLA game last night. It's nasty. It's nasty. It's nasty. sack, I, I sat up in my chair and went and like had an audible reaction. I was, I was like, ooh. Yeah. There's a lot of that in the cow game, especially the second half of the cow game, where I think he kind of gets tired of getting blocked by a bad cow tackle and just starts

absolutely tearing off up the edge. So I think there's a lot of that that's involved with him, you know, and I've had to kind of put all the personality type stuff to the side because it does not bother me, but I understand why others might be rubbed the wrong way by it. If we're just looking at the traits and scouting the traits, if there's a guy at the top of this edge class that can develop that elite level bend, it's Tibido. And I don't think it's any of the other guys that are in that top three to five in this year's edge class. You're not like in the Von Miller, Brian Burns side of things, but he has more flexibility than everybody else in this conversation. And when you combine that with the burst, it's hard not to talk yourself into the flashes with

him because the flashes with him purely as a past rusher are unlike anything else involved with this group. And I think that's why I can absolutely feel the rationalization of like, well, he's just the high end of him. We can talk about the high end of Traylon Walker. I think it's very different. But the high end of him as a past rusher, I think, is different than anybody else in this conversation. It's just about whether or not the high end comes too infrequently for you to feel good about it. And I think that's the conversation that teams are going to have to have with themselves is, are we grading to the flash? Are we talking about ourselves into the splash plays? Do they happen often enough for that to happen? Right. I mean, that's exactly where I'm at

with him is, you know, can we just get consistency in that, especially as a pass rusher? If we get any level of consistency in his production, is it in his approach as a past rusher, I do think that we're talking about a guy that's going to land between high level starter and star. It's hard for me to look at a guy with his athletic traits and his abilities and say if he's focused and he gets a job done, that that's not going to work out extremely well for whichever team drafts him. The personality thing is funny because I think it's a consideration of whether it's the difference between whether or not people just don't like him or it's actually a problem. And I think it leans closer to the fact that he just annoys people.

You talk to people about it. And most of the stuff is I've heard second. hand. But people with teams, it's literally, they'll just be like, I don't like that guy. And so is it, is that enough of a barrier to him to it hurting his development? Or is he wired the right way when it comes to the football stuff? And he just rubs people the wrong way. If that's how it ultimately falls, that's fine with me. If he's kind of annoying to older men, then I can live with that if he actually cares about the football stuff, but it seems like he might. I think that he does care about the football stuff. And I think that he is, you know,

and this is something that makes me laugh when he kind of describes himself as like a very cerebral high IQ player. And this is not just that quote. There's a lot of things where he'll get in front of a microphone and be like, I don't have a problem with that. You also probably shouldn't say that before you have a job. So that that's a lot of it, you know, with him. So but I do think that he is focused on football, at least to the degree that makes it possible for him to kind of, you know, tap into what I think his potential is as a potential star edge rusher. I think it's a lot more of what you were saying on the latter end. I think it's a lot more of like him leaving the room and guys just feeling like,

he's kind of an asshole, isn't he? Then it is like, oh, we actually think that this is a guy who is going to be a headache for us every week type of thing. 100%, which is it's, you know, those are considerations you have to take into account when you're talking about hiring people. But it's still, I don't think, is as worrisome as it's been laid out to be from the most part. All right, Trayvon Walker.

This one to me is fascinating. Okay, so let's start on the low end. So I'll say 5% on bust, 15% on bench. I'll say 65% on starter. And I'll put 15% on star if I have that right. I believe I was at 85% beforehand. So yeah. That sounds right.

This isn't a math show. That's good enough for me. So yeah. And I mean, and a lot of that, you know, to articulate it, a lot of it is just like, I think, no matter what. I don't care where he's drafted. I don't care what they ask him to do. He has the potential to be the best run defender

up front in the NFL by the end of his rookie contract. And if you're telling me that that's all I might get out of that guy, that is going to be a starter in the NFL for multiple contracts. It's hard to find guns like that. It's just hard to find guys who can perform at that level. A lot of it outside of that is you having, personally having to make a decision on how much are you blaming the lack of production on the fact that Georgia is like,

as spread defense, as spread defense gets. And him maybe. So to me, a lot of it, and he kind of articulated it at the combine, right, is I've played a zero technique. So he's been a nose tackle. He's been a three technique, a defensive tackle. He's played a four eye, which is an odd front's version of a defensive tackle, all the way out to a nine technique, which is like as pure edge rusher, as pure edge rusher gets.

And they run all these different, like, simulated pressures where it looks like you're bringing four, and you do bring four, but one of the defensive linemen drop out. out in the zone coverage. He's had to deal with a lot of that too. So to me, like when you look at that defense and it's not at all like maybe what Michigan did, but for example, with Aden Hutchinson where it's like four down, Hutchinson and OJaba on the edge, there were two high safeties. They're tearing off up the field trying to crush gaps on the way to the quarterback. And we're just playing straight up like that. You know, that's much closer to what you'll see at the NFL level. Georgia is not like that at all. So it makes it difficult to

kind of scoutish traits. I just don't see the bend. I don't see a plan, to be honest with you as a pass rusher for as harsh as it may sound. I just don't see anything that led to me, that will lead me to believe that he can turn into that top flight pass rush guy. I think at best he turns into either a secondary rusher or, you know, a six to nine technique on first and second down and a three technique on third down. And those players are very valuable.

They're just not top five picks. I'd 100% agree. I wish I had something more interesting to say. When you watch him, the amount of imagination it takes to picture that guy as worth a first, a top three pick, that's this process, right? You need that imagination because this is about projection. And somebody with his physical traits, he is a once every five years athlete. You know what I mean? Those guys come along.

I mean, the last guy with that bundle of physical traits at that. position in the draft was probably Miles Garrett when you think about just pure testing. But Miles Garrett was an exceptionally productive college player. And even the comparisons to Alden Smith and those rumblings over the last couple weeks, well, think about Trent Balkey drafted Alden Smith. You know, could this be the same version of that? The only thing, in my opinion, that's similar about Alden Smith and Trayvon Walker is they have super long arms. Yes.

Other than that, I don't understand anything that's similar about Trayvon Walker and Alden Smith. I covered Alden Smith during his first year at Missouri. It was 2009. His first season was my one year covering the Missouri football team. He had 30 combined tackles for losses and sacks. 30. It's hard to be a more disruptive player that Alden Smith was during his first season at Missouri. Trayvon Walker has none of that.

His length is insane. And it's not just how he measured. When you watch him play, the way he weaponizes that length in the run game is very real. but other than that, I just don't know where some of those traits stand out at a ton when you're watching him. And again, I've only seen a few games,

but I just, I think it's a really, really tough projection and you're having to read into something that for the most part isn't there. Right. I mean, again, like, just looking at what his profile

as a pass rush, if you take the moves that he uses, which is a lot of bull rushing, a lot of long arm. A lot of long arm. And a lot of speed to power, right? And that's great. as a three technique.

You can eat very well as a pass rushing three technique with those as your moves, especially if you can add like maybe an arm over or something like that as a finesse move. That is never going to get you, not never, but that is not going to consistently get you to the quarterback if you were lining up on a tackle. It's a great way to get yourself pulled off the field on third downs. It's thinking that that's all you need as a pass rusher. So I just don't see it. Can you learn more?

With the right coaching, is this something where our lack of creativity and imagination here is holding us back. If you drop him with the right defensive line coach and you put him in the right scheme where it's like, all right, pin your ears back and go, we're going to teach you a plan and we're going to teach you how to use your hands. Is that possible? Am I missing something here? I mean, if he ends up in San Francisco where it seems like they can develop a pass rush out of a, you know, a soda can, then maybe. But that's, you know, those types of, that kind of defensive line development in the way that they use their personnel just isn't everywhere in the league. So I would say on average, no. I've never, I don't think I've ever really

known of an edge rusher that walked into the NFL that like could not bend at all or did not have a dominant pass rush move at all. And then they magically found one in the league. It's just not really how that works. That's not how the process goes. You're not, you're really not even afforded that level of developmental time, especially as a first round pick. You've got to be able to hit the field and get it done right off the bat. So I do think that he can maybe use his four, five, one speed, you know, to tear off up the field again as a secondary rusher and maybe be a guy that can kind of crush pockets that you can run twists and stunts off of with, but the idea that he can just line up on the best tackle on the field and he's just going to win with speed or

win with moves, that's just not in this package at all. And I doubt that that would be developed. It would be a marvel if he were able to develop a pass rush based on his starting point right now, in my opinion. Where would you draft him? I would say he would be ideal in the teens, ideal in the teens in the first round. Again, for the reason of saying, hey, at worst, we are going to get maybe the most dominant edge rusher in this class in terms of stopping the run. And if we need to kick them inside, we can't. I think he could also be one of the five or ten best three techniques in the NFL if they devoted all of the attention in that direction too.

And also, I do think that as we go toward more of a world where it can be pass rush by committee and there's so many stunts and you're looking for space clearers as part of a larger team pass rush plan, he does that. I mean, he's absolutely going to be able to do that for you, even if he's not a pure pass rusher. So I think that the way that the league is gone actually plays into his favor with how many ways he can be useful. Right. All right. Let's get to our next one here.

Jermaine Johnson from Florida State. Give me some percentages. He's an interesting one for me. So we'll go 10% bust, 20% bench. I'll say 40% on starter. And we'll say 30% on star. So I think that he's much closer to becoming a star. a star edge rusher than Walker is.

I would say probably closer than becoming a star edge rusher than even Hutchinson is. What makes you say that? I think that he has a plan. So we start again with your refinement. I do think that people whose argument is that he's closer to being maxed out as an edge rusher than anybody else in this class, I can certainly see the argument for that or that he's very close to being maxed out period as an edge rusher. I can certainly see the argument for that. But a lot of this is, again, using him as a comparison.

Harrison points to some of the other guys in the class. For everything we just said about Walker being a great run defender, Johnson is that too. I don't think at the same level that Walker is, and maybe not the same ceiling that Walker is because he just, Walker just has access to certain physical traits that I think are just different because of his length and speed. But I do think that Johnson is that,

it can be in that kind of class or tier in this, in this draft class in terms of run defender. And he is much closer to being completely refined as a pass rusher. So again, if I'm counting the production, I think we'll get from him as an edge rusher, plus what he'll be as a run defender. I think that there is some star potential there. What about him, does the pass rush plan elements of his past rush game? Do you think are a little bit more refined?

I like his hand usage a whole lot better than a lot of the guys in this class. A lot of the guys that we talked about, like for all the struggles that we say that Aidan Hutchison has with his hands at times and all the struggles that you can certainly see K. Von Tibado have in his past rush at times. I think that Johnson works much better through his hands. He certainly does not have the bend you would like to see on top of it. And that might be what ultimately bars him from becoming a star player. But I think that he's got a plan in terms of his swipes, his clubs, his rips. He finishes his past rush moves really, really well.

And when we talk about motor and guys who are going 100 miles a minute, that is 100% Johnson snap in and snap out. And he did that at a Florida State program that obviously was out of games pretty off. throughout his career. And he was still bringing it to that level. And I do think there's something to be said for that. This is going to be a weird comparison. And I probably shouldn't even make it because it might be potentially embarrassing.

He's a couple inches taller. You know, he's a better athlete. He had a 97th percentile, 10 yards split. It was better than Gedebian clownies. I mean, he's got some burst to him. But when I was watching him, he reminded me a little bit stylistically of like a two inches taller Melvin Ingram in some of the ways. he plays and he had a spin against it and i was thinking that i was watching him and i was like

does this make sense like why am i feeling like this and was watching his game and i was like i don't know why this makes sense to me and then he had an inside spin against nc state where i was like oh there it is like that's exactly what i was thinking and i don't know why i put those two together but when i was watching him like that's the name i was thinking about even though they're not really built the same way yeah no i can certainly see that and it's funny that you bring that up now i'm going to be married to that thought too for the rest of this draft process. I'm not going to be able to unsee it. But yeah, certainly, I mean, again, when we talk about that ability to kind of access every bit of his athleticism, even if it's not at that, you know, S-tier, you know, could be the best

in the NFL level. I think he's got a great grasp of what makes him good. And to your point about that explosiveness, again, get into the NFL where you can truly use your first step, where everybody is stopping the run on the way to the quarterback in these four-down schemes. I think that that would be a perfect place for him. I've seen him come up quite a bit for a team like Seattle. I think I might have mocked him to Seattle as well. And you want to talk about as ideal fit as you can get between team and player. Makes total sense.

It's exactly the type of guy. It seems like they would shoot for. That would not surprise me at all. He just seems like a guy who's going to be a really useful player for a while. And I think that the lack of bend and the concerns in that area might limit his ceiling a little bit. But when you watch a play play is hard, like, so many things. It's like this guy just looks like a solid NFL player for a long time. Like that's just the feeling you get by watching him, which isn't the most exciting takeaway.

But sometimes that's okay. It's okay. If you draft that guy 15th overall and he's an eight-year starter for you and he's never a pro bowler, like, that's not the worst thing in the world. All right. George Carl Aftus, give me some percentages here. So I'm probably higher on Carl Aftus in a lot. lot of people. So I'm going to say... This is my blind spot in NFL player evaluation as players exactly like George Brownhouse, by the way. I'm going to say 10% on star. I don't think that

that's in his... I certainly don't think that that's in the cards for him, but I'll say... It's hard to figure out what that path would look like. Exactly. Exactly. And a lot of this is going to sound kind of similar to what we're seeing about Walker, even though he is not that level of athlete. I'll say 10% on star. I'll say 60% on starter. I'll say 20% on... 20% on bench and 10% on bust. And again, it's about profiling what you can provide as a run defender first and then your ceiling as a pass rusher second. So because of what I don't think he can do in terms of being a pass rusher is why that

star level is as low as it is. Somebody wanted to say that it's at, you know, zero to five percent. I'd understand that too because I certainly don't see that's in the cars for him. But I do think because of his size, his ability to control guys. can certainly grow in this area as a run defender. But I think that you can, you can certainly see the outline of a guy who is at least at league average to plus league average as a run defender. And then in the passing game, I do think that he's probably a guy that you got to kick inside to get the best version of his production out of him. But I think that that would be a good fit for

him as well. So not as high level of a starter when we use those percentages on Trouvon Walker, for example, like I think that Trouvon's Walker starter percentages is like, like plus starter because of what he does as a run defender. I think the Carl Aftus is maybe kind of on the average to low, low end of starter level as edge defenders in this class, but I don't see a guy like that failing as much as maybe not becoming a great, great player. In Lance Zerlind's latest mock draft,

and they talked about this in the show he did with Dane on Wednesday, he had him going to Baltimore. And now I can't unsee that. He's also going to Baltimore in my mock draft too. You just think about Because he can play a bunch He can do a bunch of different things Based on situation

He can line up in a bunch of different ways And a mad Him and him and OA are so different And when you have those kinds of like Putting those two pieces together Makes sense to me Because I think they accentuate each other In the right ways

He's just like a greedy Like whatever you want to Just dirty work type of front seven player That I could imagine playing for the Ravens That would not shock me at all I mean, when you start thinking about some of the guys that they've used, he checks almost all the boxes that you would expect for them, short of being a freak twitched up athlete, right? Like the ability to move him around a defensive front, that he can do so many different things for you. That's a place, you know, when you start talking about pass-fresh by committee.

That is something that they had certainly been committed to with Wink Martindale and the defensive coordinators they had prior. So I'm interested to see if that's how Mike McDonald, you know, carries his defense at the NFL level. It's a huge question. It's a really good thing to bring up. Yeah, so I'm really interested by that. But on the assumption that because he worked for Wink Mortondale, that he still has pieces of that in his package, that's a great spot for a guy like Carl Aftus to fit into because he's basically never going to be asked to be a lead rusher in that type of ecosystem. He's a piece of the puzzle, you know, another cog in the machine and all the platitudes that go with that. But I do think that there's plenty you can grab out of him.

And like I said, I think that his track probably lands him more on. that kind of league average to maybe low-end starter type of level. And that's a guy that I think would make a second contract if you end up in a place like Baltimore. This is a terrible thing to do to you on the spot. But who does he remind you of? Just in terms of play style. Because I had a hard time.

That's why I'm asking you because I don't have a point of reference if I'm honest with. I just, there wasn't somebody that just jumped out to me. I was like, he reminds me of that guy. But when you watch his game, if we're again, pass-stresh by committee is a great way to put it. And he's just a perfect committee member. He's just going to do what you need him to do. He's super strong.

All of those things, I just feel like he's a really good fit for a certain type of team and maybe not for others that want more pure pass rushers. All right. Boy amafé from Minnesota. Give me some percentages here. I know you're ready. Oh, man. So am I going to do this.

All right. So I'm going to say 20% on bust, 20% on bench. We'll say, I'm going to say 10% on. on star and I guess we'll throw we'll throw 50% on starter and a lot of that is just that I do think that I do think that for a DPR guy it doesn't need a pass rush guy you can maybe if you land in the right spot you can be a two contract player but man and even me I'm trying to be generous on the butt on the bench and bust into this into this spectrum I am just not bought in I am not I'm not 100% bought in on what Maffa can be at the NFL level

So he's not the guy that's been talked about nearly as much as some of these other guys. So why don't you just lay out for people what his profile is and what we're talking about when we consider him as a player? So I don't think that he's the best edge setter as a run defender. So we're talking about a guy who, from a size perspective, 6.3, 260, you know, he's got the requisite arm length right in between, you know, 32 and a half to 33 inch arms, itch, a 4 or 5 guy in terms of 40. So you're talking about like you're kind of prototypical speed, first step type of player, right? Kind of checks all those boxes in that way is a minus as a run defender. I will say that steps in the league at league standards, in my opinion, will be a minus as a run defender. Does not disengage the best for a guy who has the arm link that he does.

I don't like his get off at times for a guy who runs as fast as he does. And I don't think that he has the best pass rush plan in the world. It's just that you can see the outline of a DPR guy, right? So when I think about, you know, when I think about teams who kind of use players like this that can actually perform at a starter level, you think about Green Bay and a healthy Zadarius Smith, right? Or, you know, you're probably not getting that same high-level run defender type of production that he was at Baltimore when he was 100% healthy. But because they play with a bunch of giants, basically all the other spots in their front,

I got like Zadaria Smith can live and exist just fine. as a maybe, you know, league average to minus run defender in 2021, you know, in that type of ecosystem. And that would be the best type of situation for him. But I think that if he's someplace where you can't hide him in that way, he's 100% going to be, he's 100% going to be the team, beyond the team that is on Sunday night football and Chris Collinsworth is running through an eight-place sequence of teams just running outside zone at him over and over and over again until he figures it out. So for that reason, I have some serious concerns about whether or not he can sustain at

that starter level and chances are I would say he's more likely than not going to end up just being a DPR type of guy which is why I think he's probably being mocked to late one the early second you know if not mid second for a lot of people who are running these mock drafts all right last one here Arnold abacati from Penn State you wanted to talk about him because he's a personal crush of yours yep that is my give me some percentages for him so Dane is also high on him by the way Dane has him above mafay I mean he has him as like a second round pick pretty firmly. So you guys are aligned here and you're thinking. So I will say, and I think that this is actually a much smoother percentage based on for any of the other guys I've had so far, we'll say 10% on

star. I will say 40% on starter. And then I'll probably say 25 and 25 on bench and bust. So I think that this can go a lot of different ways. I don't want people to think it just because this is a draft pressure line that I'm saying that he's a sure fire plus player. Because he is pretty raw. I do think that he's a really raw player. I just love his approach, right? Like you turn on the tape, you know, and you just see a guy who clearly he takes being blocked as disrespect.

That is the first thing I can say. You can tell that he takes being blocked on the edge is disrespect. That is 100% the way that he approaches it. I think that he does just enough as an edge setter to be a reliable player in the run, in the run game. And then as a pass rusher, he's certainly unrefined. I will certainly say that he is unrefined, but he has the length. I think he has the burst.

And I think that he's got some of the athletic profile that you need to develop into a potential type of secondary rush guy. I think that's where he tops out as. I just happen to like the way that he approaches playing on the edge. All right. The last thing I want to ask you before we move on, just something I thought about when I was just looking at past rush stats while you were talking. What about Rishon Gary as a best case sort of scenario for Trayvon Walker? some of the limited pass rush production coming in, crazy physical traits. Roshan Gary on a per snap basis, according to PFF, was the most productive pass rusher in the league this year.

Would you say that's like the upper echelon of outcomes for Walker? Yes, that is 100% to dream. And you think about one of the great things about having Rishan Gary on that defense does is the fact that he can line up in a bunch of different spots, right? He can take that. Big man. Yeah, he can take that large frame and do a whole lot with it. and he was able to develop just enough as a pass rusher to now be able to use all those athletic traits to become, you know, the most productive pass rush guy in the NFL last season.

So that would be the dream scenario. Now, if you ask me if you think I'm going to, if he think he's going to get there, that's a different question. I don't know if he's going to get to there. All right. That's all we got. Thank you very much, my friend. That was a really fun conversation.

I hope you guys enjoyed it. We'll be back tomorrow with a very special show. I'm really excited about what's coming down the pike tomorrow. I don't want to give it away quite yet, but I'm sure that you guys will enjoy it. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform with choice. I sincerely appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic.com slash football show.

It's where you can read all of Deontes' work and everything else from our fantastic staff and all of the pretty unparalleled draft coverage that we have going on right now. I highly encourage you guys to go check that out. A reminder, Las Vegas. rounds one and two and three Thursday and Friday night of the NFL draft. Me, Nate, and Dane will be coming to you guys live on Thursday and Friday night during the draft. You can find it on YouTube on Twitter, wherever you find your live video, typically associated with the athletic football show. Deante is going to be on there.

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