The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Vikings swing for the fences with Kyler Murray

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

This isn't supposed to happen. Teams aren't supposed to be able to sign a 28-year-old quarterback who was a first overall pick and previously been a legitimate part of an MVP discussion for the league minimum. Yet that's exactly where we've arrived with Kyler Murray and the Minnesota Vikings. Alec Lewis, The Athletic's Vikings beat reporter, joins Robert Mays to break down the move, what Kyler brings to the Vikings, the future of J.J. McCarthy, and more on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Connect with The Athletic Football ShowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowPodcasts: https://podfollow.com/the-athletic-football-show/viewX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowBuy our merch! http://theathletic.lnk.to/tafsmerchCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: [e-mail]: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Kyler Murray is officially a Minnesota Viking. We knew this was going to happen. And part of me was like, can we just wait until Monday to talk about it? But it's a huge move. Like, Tyler Murray is still a talented quarterback.

The Vikings are an intriguing destination. You're landing in a spot with Justin Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell, an offensive line that should be better this year than it was last year when it was super banged up. The Vikings are an intriguing team with Kyler at the helm. And so I really didn't want. want to sit on this for a couple of days. There was some urgency in wanting to have this discussion. And so joining me on short notice, it is our friend, our Vikings writer at the athletic,

Alec Lewis, to help me dig through all things, Kyler Murray and Minnesota, how we arrived at this point, what it means for JJ McCarthy, the best case scenario for how this could work out, and much, much more. So let's get to that conversation with Alec right now. We all knew it was probably going to happen. But now that it actually has happened, we wanted to have our Vikings writer Alec Lewis on to chat a little bit about the Kyler Murray era in Minnesota. Alec, now that we've actually seen this go down, let's talk about how we arrived at this point if you're the Vikings. Why among all of the other options on the board, and there were other options on the board, do you think the Vikings landed with Kyler Murray as let's call it the competition for J.J.

McCarthy this season. We can dig into that as we go. Yeah, thanks for having me, Robert. I appreciate it. But I think why they landed with Kyler ultimately was because they viewed him as the most talented quarterback available within the cycle. And while the question of scheme fit and how they are going to adapt their system to his skill set, which we'll talk about, I'm sure, over the course of this podcast, while that has been a big conversation, I think ultimately they wanted to get a guy who, similar to Sam Donald a couple years ago is a really talented player. who was drafted at a certain point for a reason, who is kind of entering what, you know,

talked to be in the league, what people view as the prime years for quarterback play. And so ultimately, wanting to find an experience reliable, former starting quarterback, they landed on the guy that they believed was really just the most, had the most raw talent and probably the most to maximize.

Also, I mean, you talk about the Sam Donald part of this. Even when Sam Darnold was signing, one-year contracts. Think about the reclamation projects last year. Like Daniel Jones and the Vikings won at Daniel Jones last year, that was one year 15 million. When the Vikings were trying to hold on to Sam Darnold, I think they were willing to give him an offer that was similar to what the Seahawks

ended up offering him. The fact that Kyler Murray is going to come to Minnesota for essentially free, for a team that is up against the cap, like this is of all of the different outcomes, if Jay-J McCarthy's going to have the season that he had last year, and now you have to, revisit your strategy. The general manager gets fired. That's how much you have to revisit your strategy. And you have to pivot from that. And now think, okay, what does the immediate, near term,

and then long term future of the position look like for us? Getting Kyler Murray for $1.3 million, among all of the other options that you might have had to explore in a different year, this is not the worst place for the Vikings to have landed given the fact that they already want to at least provide competition for the guy they drafted in the top 10 two years ago. Yeah, I probably should have started with the contract component of it and the fact that there is an offset with Arizona. But you mentioned the cap constraints and you know them well, Robert, and I'm sure the listeners do too.

But the Vikings last offseason signed a ton of older veterans and J. Von Hargrave and Jonathan Allen and Ryan Kelly. And those guys, you know, they paid a premium in free agency for those guys. And so this free agent cycle and this spring has really. been a course correct for them in many ways from a cap perspective. And then you just fundamentally, you think about it, the Vikings have signed two free agents. One of them is James Pierre, a quarterback from the Steelers, who I have become very aware of now and wasn't quite aware of earlier. And they're paying Kyler Murray less than they're paying James Pierre. And so if you can make that

happen, I think, was given the talent that he also is at the position. You probably should think long and hard about it. And they did. Let's talk about the J.G. McCarthy element of this, because when we were talking about potential options for the Vikings, I think that on the spectrum of players you could have chosen, and Kirk Cousins is kind of a weird one, but let's use Kirk Cousins more as like an abstract idea than Kirk Cousins as an actual person. Because the idea of going out and getting a Kirk Cousins type figure, where it's an aging player, it's more considered a stopgap, you could at least gesture at the idea if you would say, signed a guy like Kirk Cousins, then you could say, hey, we're going to bring in a Kirk like a guy.

He's going to compete with JJ for the starting quarterback job, right? We are still giving JJ a real avenue to get this thing, and we still believe in JJ long term. You can correct me if I'm wrong about this, but from the outside looking in, when you go and decide dynamics be damned, we want the most talented guy in here to add to our quarterback room, I think it's much harder to sell that idea of, this is simply competition for J.J. McCarthy. This feels like, we are pivoting off of this because we cannot survive another season, whether that's the guys in the locker room, whether that's Kevin O'Connell, to one that looked like

2025. Do you think that's a fair read on the situation as to why Kyler Murray is the guy? Yeah. I mean, I think they're absolutely, like, you'll get people here locally in Minnesota, where it's like, you know, is there a hot seat? You know, like you go down those ors, and I don't think it's like that dire, but there's no question a guy like Justin Jefferson, as great as he handled the 2025 season, is not going to be going to want or be willing to handle another year like that.

And there is no question that other guys in the locker room, staff, I mean, you want to get to a place where you feel at that position, you've got a chance every single Sunday. I think there was a lot of sample last year where they did not feel like, that was going to be the case. I think, you know, selling it as the competition, in many ways, the way that I believe they're viewing it is that is an attempt at just maximizing what these guys both become and the motivation levels of both guys. Now, it's kind of silly because, I mean, you know a guy like Kyler Murray who's been

of the Pro Bowl twice, who has thrown for thousands and thousands of yards to sell it that way is in many ways. I think it is somewhat silly, but I get kind of the motivation behind it in terms of wanting to be a catalyst for J.J. McCarthy's development. And yeah, I mean, I'd say internally, do I believe that there is no conviction at all that J.J. McCarthy can ultimately reach a certain ceiling? Like, no, I don't believe that's the case. But he's still such a young player and the developmental hurdles are as tall as they are. So to not offer this level of insurance and this level of stability and floor at this point, I think would go against just maximizing what they want to do in the present.

I've said this many times in the last two months. It's worth saying again, the idea that J.J. McCarthy is some lost cause because of what we've seen him do in the handful of starts he's had, you know the number better than I do. What is it? 10, 12, 10, 10 starts. You cannot write a guy off of after 10 starts. You cannot do that even if we can concede that the situation in Minnesota is pretty good, even with some of the offensive line injuries from last year.

That being said, I don't think this group is willing to wait it out. That's what's going on here. It's not that he's a lost cause. There is a world where another team looks at J.J. McCarthy as a distress asset now. They trade for him after this season, before this season. and whatever. And that's, it's not that he can't figure it out down the road. It's that this group is not willing to wait while he figures it out.

That, that to me is what's happening here. Yeah, exactly. That's exactly right. You get a lot of the narrative, like, look how, look what Sam Darnel became. Exactly. They don't have five years. Exactly right. You know just as well as I do just well of the listeners.

Like the runway that teams have in the NFL, it's not like, I cover Major League Baseball. It's not like where the pitching coach has five. five years to figure it out and develop guys. That's just not how it works in this league. And so, kind of to reiterate what you said, I've said this many times. You're balancing two different worlds. The quarterback development world, which might take four to five years.

And then the world of the present that the Vikings are living in where they haven't won a playoff game in six seasons. And Kevin O'Connell is entering his fifth season, not having won a playoff game. So navigating those worlds is what led to this outcome. and I think you started in the right way. Like for all of the narratives around Kyler, for everything that's been said, I mean, it's pretty hard to deny when you turn on the tape, the talent that is there, and how they try to maximize and adapt to that is going to be the fascinating part of this for me

in the short and long term. Let's just talk about other options first before we get into some of the football elements of this. Do you think there was any real consideration given to other quarterbacks that are in this situation, Obviously, Gino Smith is somebody that could have been had. Obviously, he got traded, but the Jets are going to pay almost the equivalence to the minimum. So he was in that bucket. We talk about Kirk Cousins being one of those guys. They potentially could have gone back to even if there are a lot of complications to that.

In your mind, was it always Kyler Murray and then everybody else? Or do you think they gave a real consideration to other options as part of this process? Yeah, I think if they had it their way, it would have been Kyler, you know, from the outset after they did their study and talk to people. But part of the reason that they were linked to as many quarterbacks as they've been linked to, whether it is Gino, whether it is Kirk, Derek Carr. So much of that, in my opinion, and for my understanding, is to prevent what happened last year where Daniel Jones chose Indianapolis and left the Vikings with very minimal options. So much of the Vikings due diligence this spring was to prevent a replica of that which left the quarterback. room where it left them last year with Sam Howell, J.J. McArthur, and Max Brosmer. They just didn't want that to be the circumstance this time around. So had Kyler Murray,

had Arizona and Mike LaFleur decided to keep Kyler Murray, the Vikings would have needed a backup plan that could have been Kirk Cousins or Gino Smith. Had, you know, at another team traded for Kyler and then the Jets traded for Gino, the Vikings would have needed an answer to that at that point. And maybe Kirk Cousins would have fit the bill. So that, from my understanding, is why you saw the amount of link that you did. I mean, it was crazy. You know this, Robert. Like in Indianapolis, I'd meet with an agent who said, I'd hear Derek Carr.

Then you'd meet with an executive. I've heard Kyler Murray. And so for me, it was sifting through why, why not? And I think ultimately, coming out of the comment, I wrote, like, Kyler Murray's talent, they recognize is undeniable at this point. And the raw talent is at a premium level. But this team wanted to give themselves as many outs as possible. and I think that's probably the smart way to go about it.

The idea of Kyle Burying is the most talented option here, and I think the connotation that comes with that is, well, there's still real downside to Cairo Murray. And you used a term earlier that I think is underrated when it comes to the Kyle Murray discussion. Even if Kyle Murray has been a frustrating quarterback or maybe an inconsistent quarterback or maybe a quarterback that people can't really pin down,

the floor of play with Kyler Murray when he has been on the field has been very solid. Like, if you look at the numbers, Kyler Murray over the last three years, 2023 to 2025, and there are multiple different considerations with that. He's coming off an injury as part of that. He's in a system where they never really tried

to tailor it around him. And Kyler Murray average 0.06 EPA per dropback over the last three seasons combined. Justin Herbert is at 0.07. CJ Stroud is at 0.05. Right? And so it's not as if Kyler Murray is this guy that had career statistics

that looked like Sam Darnold. did when he arrived in Minnesota. Even if Kyle Murray is a quarterback that I think we can admit he has limitations, there is still plenty to work with. Like his overall body of work is not some abject disaster where you're trying to really rebuild everything that he's been. This is a really decent outcome, even if you just plug in the guy he's been over the last few years into what the Vikings

offense is. If 2023 to 2025, Kyle Murray, the exact same guy that we just saw was the Vikings quarterback last year. They would have been a pretty good football team, and that's kind of what we're doing here. If Carson Wince had stayed healthy the whole year, they might have made the playoffs. I mean, that's really the circumstances. Now, I will say, everything you said is abundantly correct. The health part of it is a major flag and a major thing to talk about. And I was on the radio here this morning, and I said that. Like, I believe in the last five years, he's only played 17 games once. He's had major injuries when you're talking ACL.

when you're talking the foot. So, like, I don't, I don't ever want to minimize that part of it. And you know this well, Robert. When the Vikings have had a starter for an entire season under Kevin O'Connell, they've won 27 games, I mean, in two seasons. So they've had an exorbitant amount of success. Keeping him healthy is going to be a critical part of it. But, yeah, I mean, you turn on the tape.

And it's, I mean, I was fascinated because I am like a lot of fans probably who listen to this where you hear the narratives about Kyler. and so you have this idea in your mind. And then you turn on the tape. And yes, there is some of the run-around playmaking stuff, but there also is some accuracy underneath toward the sidelines, some shots over the middle of the field that you'll see. Like there is a skill set there that is pretty apparent just when you watch it.

So, yeah, I think the health part of it is going to be a major conversation. But if he does stay healthy, the, there is just unquestionable. aspect about the floor that he does provide, given his experience and what he's done in the league. The other aspect of this that we don't have to spend a ton of time on, I just find it interesting, is that if you look at the other teams that were in the quarterback market this year, it's set up very well for the Vikings to get Kyle or Murray and not have much competition for him because the other teams that you would throw in that we've seen them either sign these quarterbacks or they're in the market for these quarterbacks.

let's talk about the Raiders, right? They are in the Kirk Cousins market right now. They don't want a guy that's potentially a starter. They want a guy that's exactly like Kirk because they're drafting Fernando Mendoza. The Falcons are in a unique spot where Kevin Stefansky and Drew Petting are very, very close. And so Drew worked with Kyler over the last few years. I think there is a very good understanding of what Kyler Murray's skill set looks like in an offense that the Falcons are going to want to run under Kevin Stefanski.

And so even if Kyle Murray in a vacuum is a better quarterback than Tuatonga-Tong about Aloha, I think the Falcons arrived in a place. where Tua is a better answer for us in this moment than Kyler Murray is going to be. The Colts, who potentially could have been in the Kyleor Murray discussion if they wanted to be to not pay Daniel Jones $44 million. Non-starter. They never thought about Kyra Murray. They never considered Kyler Murray.

I think there are a lot of different factors in that. And so you're looking at where the seats are when the music stops. And the Vikings really were one of the only teams that make sense. And so they didn't have a ton of competition for him, even if objectively he is the best. answer here. But then the question becomes, as we talk about the schematic stuff, how much does he fit what the Vikings have been over the last few years? Because Minnesota has been one of those under center play action teams. At the same time, Kevin O'Connell, when he was in L.A. with the Rams, you are like a shotgun-based offense with Matthew Stafford. And so I think this is a scenario where

in Arizona, that coaching staff was married to Kyle Murray. He was an arranged marriage. I don't think they ever wanted to go so far outside of what they wanted their offense to be solely to appease Kyler Murray. I think that in Minnesota, there is actually a more realistic chance where we see the structure of the offense change a little bit in order to maximize Kyler Murray. So as you think about that process and what you've talked to people's, with the kind of glimpses you've seen into that process from the people that you've talked to, what do you think that schematic marriage looks like of who the Vikings want to be and who Kyle Murray is as a quarterback? Yeah, I looked this up before we talk.

But since Kevin O'Connell got here, I think they've been under center like 47% of the time. Kyler Murray, I think from 2019 to 2025, was under center like 17% of the time. So that's, for me, it's very much where I start. Like the Vikings have been a early down, under center play action over the middle of the field crosser type of offense. So how much adaptability will they do have and how much will they, how much will they? adapt to where maybe on early downs, there is more gun stuff. And that would include some more gun run stuff because that's been an area. I mean, I've had friends who are coaches, both high school people in the league, of like,

they barely run out of the gun. Well, I think that could be something where you see more of the marriage come from that standpoint. And to that point, who did they bring in this offseason to be the assistant head coach to Kevin O'Connell? Frank Smith, who was the OC in Miami, how much gun run, pistol, some of the stuff that they did, can he bring and can they deploy? It's going to be very interesting to see.

But I think that that's really the area that I would expect the most adaptation to come, where they're on early downs, maybe there's some more uses of the gun. You marry that up with more shotgun run. I would say talking to people, I've been kind of surprised that there is a feeling that some of the concept carryover isn't as drastically different from a passing game perspective, then I think you would be led to believe, like, whether it is some of the shorter to intermediate stuff, whether it is, you know, dagger over the middle of, like some of that, the concept carryover, I think there is some continuity there, which they feel comfortable with.

But I had a coordinator in the league who's not what the Vikings tell me, like, this is kind of like with Ben Johnson and Caleb, a test of, like, how much do you adapt? What does that look like? and it can be a referendum on your overall abilities as a play caller and play designer. And I think that's a cool and fun and interesting place to be to analyze that from Kevin O'Connell and this staff. And when I think about the Vikings offense, there's obviously there is a ton of, you know, there are a lot of dagger variations.

There is a lot of under center play action. But the verticality of the offense is what I continue to go back to. And I think that the verticality does match with what Kyle Murray can bring. Like he can push the ball down the field, even if he's not. an intermediate over the middle of the field passer. Caleb Williams, I think it's almost a misnomer because he never showed that he wasn't willing to do that, right? Like we had seen one year from him in the NFL.

And I would argue that what he is as a passer aligns with what Ben Johnson wants to do. It's more just a stylistic thing. With Kyler, we have seen him not want to access areas of the field that the Vikings have traditionally tried to access. But I also just think there's going to be more flexibility in what the Vikings are willing to do and how they're willing to build their passing game, that I do feel like there is a marriage that can potentially work here. And so I think schematically it's going to be an interesting fit.

I don't necessarily think it's a mismatched fit in the way that some other people might. Let's just talk about the next two years of Vikings football, right? I think that's going to be one of the questions here because as part of this deal, and you've reported this and other people have as well, there is a no tag clause as part of this deal. And so I think there's probably, if you're the Vikings, the ideal end of the road here is probably having to figure out like a Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones-esque extension with Kyler Murray. Like that does feel like the best possible outcome here. And because he's a little bit younger than a guy like a Gino Smith, you do give yourself maybe a little bit of runway as all right, this can be the quarterback of the future for the Kevin O'Connell Vikings.

Do you think that is like the ideal outcome here where we're just talking about Kyler Murray on a two-year $90 million extension next off season? And that's just what Kevin O'Connell's Vikings look like into 2028. Yeah, I mean, I definitely think that's a possibility. If things go the way they want them to go and Kyler Murray produces and performs, it would be really tough to arrive back at the place that you did with Sam Donald and decide once again to, to take the, you know, step out on the deep dive of the diving board and step out on the,

you know, rookie quarterback, complete uncertainty, you know, platform and, and circumstance. Like, that's what I would say. So, yeah, I think if things go really well, if the blend with personalities and just, you know, had to fit in the locker, if all of that stacks up and then the production is there, I definitely could see that as being the route. I mean, it's also just going to be interesting to see what happens with J.J. McCarthy. Obviously, if you get through year three, let's say Kyler's healthy the whole year, then you're going to have to decide on the fifth year option for J.J. McCarthy,

what would that look like? I mean, you're talking about a 2027 draft that people believe is pretty interesting from a quarterback standpoint. So I think if in the best case scenario, Kyler produces at a number, optimal level. They make the playoffs, give it a run in the first round of the playoffs, see what happens, and then try to work through an extension. I think also what I would say, I mean, a point I want to make is the way they have

operated with the cap this spring is to be pretty clear in 27 and beyond. So in some ways, they are keeping the flexibility of the type of two-year $90 million since you just mentioned in play if that is the route they want to go in the near future. They've pivoted off of the we're spending a lot of money around the rookie quarterback contract. That's already happened, right? Like they still have the in-house guys that are expensive. They still have the Jeffersons. They still have Christian Derisaw, Brian O'Neill, a lot of their guys that they extended.

But those luxury signings that you could do last spring because you were working off with the J.J. McCarthy contract, those are the ones that have gone away. Right now they have $78 million in 2027. space. They are now becoming a team again or setting themselves up to become a team again that is going to have to pay an expensive veteran quarterback as part of their build. And so I think we've already seen the pivot happen. We've already seen them step into whatever the next generation or next version of this looks like. And that's again why I think the best case scenario is that version of it, just working out to the best way that it can. And I'll say this too, like you get some

people who listen to that and they'll say, well, then you're going right back into what you had with Kurt Cousins. A couple things I would say from that is, first of all, the player is completely different. Second of all, Ed Donatel in 2022 is not the defensive coordinator now that Brian Flores is in 2026. And if he didn't get a head coach in this head coaching offer in this past cycle, you probably have a conviction that he's going to be around for the short term and was just extended to be around for the short term. So I just think the situations are in many ways. I get why people would link them in their head, but it's just, it's a vastly different place to be, I think, with the people and just the infrastructure kind of evolved.

You also tried to get off the ride. You tried to get off the ride and you tried to get cheap. And then what happened happened. Like, you explored that idea. And I understand the Kirk era being, the frustrating for some of those reasons where you feel like you're this middling team that's kind of stuck in the muck and you're just over and over again kind of beating your head against the wall with that sort of construction. If you just kept doing that over and over and over again, I get the frustration. You tried to not be that. The offense and the quarterback play bottomed out and now you're just trying to clean up the mess a little bit. And so getting back to that place while frustrating still to me is a massive improvement and departure on what last year had to

look like. Correct. And the unspoken aspect with all of it is their draft misses and the inability to supplement everything via the draft is part of what complicated that attempt as much as it did. I mean, that's really moving forward here. And Rob Rezinski, the interim GM, has made this very, very clear. Like, they have to get to a place regardless where they are drafting and developing at a much higher level than they've been. They have nine picks with the with the comp pick in 2026 and it is going to be incumbent upon them beginning here to, you know, to find real talent, young talent that becomes part of the next core. That's just, it's just necessary at this point. And regardless of quarterback play, like without that, it's, you're in a really tough spot. They've made four top 100 picks in the last three years

combined the Vikings have. They have four top 100 picks in this draft. And so that that's the world that we're working in here when it comes to the Minnesota Vikings and the draft capital and the draft potential. Alec Lewis, always great to chat with you, sir. I know you're busy. I thank you for agreeing to do this last minute. I did not want to go an entire weekend without not addressing this in some way. So glad we could appreciate the insight. We'll talk to you very soon, my friend. Anytime, Robert, appreciate it. And I can't wait to be texting you to find me under center gun run specific statistics as I'm watching this thing in training camp. It'll be fun.

It's always nuts around here for some reason. But thanks for having me. We'll talk soon. Appreciate it, buddy. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much to Alec for his time. We'll be back on Monday doing our first of several, just kind of free agency recap shows. We're going to chat about how much better these teams are really on one half and one side

of the NFL. Very much looking forward to that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.