The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Washington's Backfield, Quarterbacks and Tight Ends to Target, and our Favorite Futures Bets

Episode Date: September 4, 2020

It's the debut episode of the joint effort between The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and The Athletic Football Show. Every Friday, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper will round up the fantasy news of the week and look ahead to Sunday with last-minute tips and DFS picks. After that, Beller and Vic Tafur will walk you through their favorite bets of the week. On the debut episode, Beller and DVR discuss Washington's backfield and the quarterback and tight end positions for fantasy, while Beller and Tafur highlight some of their favorite future bets for the 2020 season.Rundown1:35 Introducing the Friday Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show Partnership2:33 Antonio Gibson's Stock on a Rocketship7:55 Quarterbacks We're Targeting at ADP13:29 Quarterbacks We're Avoiding at ADP17:39 Quarterbacks Outside the Top 15 We Think Can Finish in the Top 1022:25 Tight Ends We're Targeting at ADP25:35 Tight Ends We're Avoiding at ADP28:33 Tight Ends Outside the Top 15 We Think Can Finish in the Top 1033:22 Welcome to the Gambling Portion34:08 Super Bowl Futures Bets38:08 Our Favorite Division Winner Bets43:53 Win Totals!50:08 Make or Miss the Playoffs Wagers55:07 MVP Futures We're Backing60:16 Not Loving the Rookie of the Year OddsFollow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafurGet a free 7-day trial to The Athletic at theathletic.com/fantasyfootballpod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast. for Friday, September 4th, our last Friday of the year, without NFL football, already having been played and being ahead of us. That is welcome news I know to all of us. I am Michael Beller, joined by Derek Van Riper and DVR. I'm going to let people in on a little secret. Happy birthday, my friend. How are you doing?

Doing well, thank you. Happy birthday to you. It's pretty strange that we are of the same age. We attended the same school, University of Wisconsin, and here we are. the mic on a podcast. Yeah, right. How about that? Anyone out there, if you want to tweet at us,

it is, yes, both my birthday and Derek's birthday, so you can tweet at us, birthday boys, birthday boys with a Z at the end, whatever you want to do. Go ahead, at M. Beller, at Derek Van Riper. We are happily celebrating our birthdays here just six days before the start of the NFL season.

Some of you perhaps are listening to us on the athletic football show also. So thank you for tuning in to the fantasy side of things. We will be here every single, Friday with our fantasy show. You'll be able to find this show both on the athletic football feed and the athletic fantasy football podcast feed. The way we're going to do it every Friday. First half of the show will be fantasy focused with the two of us here. Then Derek will tap out. Vic Tafer, our Raiders beat writer, one of our two Raiders beat writers will tap in. Vic also is one of

our gambling guys. You can get his Vicks Picks column every single week here at the Athletic. And Vic and I will talk about NFL that week from a gambling perspective later today on the show we're going to get into some season-long futures that we like. But for the first half of the show, we focus on fantasy for the entire season, and that includes today. DVR, we woke up on our birthday morning to some pretty big news in the NFL from a fantasy perspective and a real-life perspective, and that is that the Washington football team has cut Adrian Peterson. Not just a week ago, we were talking about this guy as the lead back in Washington, perhaps for the entire season, and certainly for the first few weeks of the season, that, of course, no longer the case.

So really no sense. And I don't think breaking down where Adrian Peterson might go because by time anyone's actually listening to this, he could have already gone somewhere. So let's just focus on the new look Washington backfield. Antonio Gibson was already getting a ton of hype, a ton of helium. And now he is going to be, I think, one of the most popular players on this final weekend of the fantasy football draft season. For me, DVR, I actually like him less as a fantasy player now than I did before the Peterson cut, because I just feel like the price is going to become too steep for this guy over this last weekend. Yeah, I was trying to figure out how high does Antonio Gibson go now?

Because the way you and I were looking at this backfield, the way that Ben Standing from the Athletic broke it down, it really did seem like AP was going to begin the season in that customary 14 to 16 carry sort of roll. they'd put somebody else in the field in passing situations, whether that was Antonio Gibson or J.D. McKissick, you know, if that was to be determined, now there's a lot of touches available.

And you have to think, Antonio Gibson, in the eyes of fantasy owners, will shoot up probably at least to the range at the back of where DeAndre Swift and J.K. Dobbins and the other exciting rookie running backs ago, because those guys are definitely sharing backfields. Gibson's got a path to take this one over. sooner rather than later.

And I think dreaming on that hype is fun, but it's also very risky from a fantasy perspective. So if you said Antonio Gibson's going to be going at the end of the six round in drafts throughout this weekend, I wouldn't really be that surprised, but he's also not going to end up on my team at that price. I think he's facing a really tall task, learning two positions in this funky 2020 season, right?

Having to learn everything via Zoom prior to the start of training camp, I think they will have design plays for him. I think he's going to be a fun and explosive player. I just think he's going to be a very limited touch player, especially in the first few weeks of the season. If I end up being wrong about that, and someone spends a sixth or seventh round pick on Antonio Gibson, and they beat me in my fantasy league, I will accept that.

Yeah, I'm totally with you there. You said this actually a couple of days ago when we were talking about Ronald Jones, and that was an episode that all you listeners out there didn't get to hear because DVR and, and I had to scrap that show because a few hours after we recorded it, Leonard Fournett signed with the Buccaneers. But you said that exact phrase.

If someone beats you with Ronald Jones, you're going to live with it. If someone beats me with Antonio Gibson, I too am going to live with it. Just going over ADP data since we turned the calendar to September, he was already pre-this-Person news just outside the top 100 by ADP, and this is obviously including all positions, all players. So he was already a pretty popular guy going in the same draft. Half Day neighborhood as Jerry Judy, Sterling Shepard, Tepard, Kevin Coleman, Rob Grankowski.

So it's not like he was just some late-round flyer to begin with. And there is going to be a ton of helium surrounding him this weekend. And I do think he can be a very fun player, an exciting player. This is a guy who had more than 1100 yards from scrimmage in his final year of college at Memphis. But 735 of those were through the air. 38 catches. More catches last year, DVR. Then he had rushing attempts in his entire college career,

just 33 rushing attempts. And I know this is a very explosive player. I know he can be a really useful player for this Washington football team. But I just don't think it's necessarily going to happen to the extent that fantasy players want this year. Peyton Barber is still in Washington. Bryce Love is still in Washington. And this is a guy who I think they're committed to getting into the offense in some way, shape, or form this year. So it's not like he's going to start the year as this team's bel cow back.

And he might never become the belcow back, even if he is getting a plural. or a small majority of the touches. So I'm going to let someone else take Antonio Gibson. Frankly, DVR, from a fantasy perspective, I'm sort of happy that this is raising his profile, because I will almost treat Antonio Gibson in the sixth round as like a free space, because it's a guy who I'm just not going to be interested in at ADP.

Yeah, if he slides a little bit, if he's there in the eighth or ninth, I would at least entertain it, because at that price you're not necessarily expecting him to be in your active lineup right away. I just think it's going to take some time, as talented as Antonio Gibson is. All right, DVR, let's take a look at a couple of other things here.

Our pal, Brandon Funston, has put together a series of positional roundtables this summer. If you do have a draft this weekend, those are still useful for you, those are evergreen, even though the first one came out a couple of weeks ago. We did running backs, we did receivers. And then just today, up on the site, you can see quarterbacks and tight ends in one combined column. So very useful columns, I think, for you. We've got a number of voices giving you their opinions on, you know, Players were targeting at ADP, players were avoiding at ADP,

players outside of the top X. We think we can finish inside the top X, a really good snapshot of every single position in the fantasy world. We're going to talk about that last roundtable that was published today. Quarterbacks and tight ends. We start it with quarterbacks you are targeting at ADP. There are a ton of right answers. I think DVR to this question,

the guy who you're pointing to is definitely one of them. Yeah, Drew Breeze as the 10th quarterback off the board based on current NFFC ADP, and by current, I mean, drafts held in the last four days, that's a no-brainer. I mean, look at the track record. Yeah, age is a little bit of a concern. But even last season, in the 11 games he played, the per game production, just under 24 fantasy points per game, that's more of a top five quarterback sort of output than a guy who's going in that 10 spot.

This is his latest Drew Breeze has really ever gone. since arriving in New Orleans. Take advantage of this because the offense is still intact. It might even be better this year with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. Things are smoothing out with the Elvin Kamara contract situation. Obviously, Michael Thomas is a target hog in that offense. There's just so many weapons around Breeze, so much continuity. I love the price on Breeze this year.

It's easy to get caught up in the idea that you can do almost anything from quarterback 7 to quarterback 20, and you'll be okay. But there will be a few guys in there that disappoint us. There will be a few offenses that sputter. There'll be some quarterbacks who regress on their own. There'll be some that lose their top wideouts. There'll be some that deal with problems on the offensive line. And I think there's enough around Drew Brees where that floor is still much higher than it is for the other quarterbacks in that range than it is for Carson Wence and even Matthew Stafford who had a great first half before an injury of his own last year.

You look at what Drew Brees did last year. you see the volume, the pure passing volume coming down for him. And if you take out the game in which he got injured and would he hurt the thumb, because that happened early in that game. It was the first quarter. It might have even been the Saints' first series. And you take that game out of the equation. And he was QB2 in points per game DVR.

He actually was better on a points per game basis in standard four point passing touchdown, 25 yards for a point in through the air leagues. More points per game than Patrick Mahomes. Only Lamar Jackson scored more points per game than Drew. Breeze in those standard scoring quarterback leagues last year. So I am with you. I feel great about Drew Breeze. I'm going to go in a different direction, not because I disagree with Drew Breeze, but just because I love Baker Mayfield. I can't quit this guy. I was all over him last year. Didn't really work out for me. I am back in on this this year. I've said this about

Baker Mayfield, excuse me, a couple of times already this summer. So excuse the repeat, if you have already heard me say this. But everything that we liked about this Cleveland offense from a year ago, still intact. He's still got Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. He's still got Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. This year he has Cream Hunt for a full season. He got a tight end upgrade in Austin Hooper. He got a major coaching upgrade in Kevin Stefansky from Freddie Kitchens. And he also got himself two new anchors on the offensive line.

Jack Conklin on one side, still just 26 years old, already has made himself into one of the best linemen in the NFL. And Jedrick Wills, the 10th overall pick in the draft on the other side. I think everything that we were excited about in Cleveland last year ends up coming to fruition in this season. We've already seen Baker Mayfield do it, right? Last year was a disappointment. But you go back to his rookie season,

and we saw why the Browns believed he could be their quarterback of the franchise for a decade, a decade plus. And now he has all the tools in place, right? No quarterback in the league. I don't care if you're Patrick Mahomes. I don't care if you're Lamar Jackson. If you had as bad of coaching an offensive line play as Baker Mayfield did last season,

you were going to struggle. Now that should be taken out of the equation, and it is up to Baker to put it all. together. The ADP on Baker Mayfield makes him the 16th, excuse me, the 16th quarterback off the board in a typical draft. He's right in the same range as Ben Ralthusberger, Jared Gough, Joe Burrow. That is just way, way, way too low for me. Baker Mayfield is definitely my favorite quarterback at ADP. I think he easily, as QB16 could end up playing to, you know, QB5, QB6. It just really feels like all those things are in place for him this season.

Yeah, I mean, I love the supporting cast. There's no excuse for him. If he doesn't get to the level we expect him to this year, he has no one to blame but himself unless this team's hit by a rash of injuries. A philosophical question for you, as you build your roster, if you are going to sit back and play the weight on a quarterback game and Baker Mayfield's the guy that you really like at that ADP, are you looking for a more established long track record sort of QB2 to pair with Mayfield

in case it doesn't work out. Are you looking to pair them with the Rathusberger or an Aaron Rogers or a Matthew Stafford or somebody that you know, like if it doesn't work out with Baker, at least I have someone who's going to be a top 15 quarterback pretty easily as a fallback option? In general, I'm not. It would depend on how the draft is unfolding if everyone ends up being devalued a little bit and I can get two of those guys at pick 140 or later, 1 30 or later, then I would think about it. But I'm totally fine going into a 1 QB league with my QB's being Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minchew, Baker Mayfield, and Jimmy Garapolo, Baker Mayfield and Drew Locke, something like that. I feel good enough about those two guys

that if Baker would fall off, I would feel okay about my backup. I just do think that Baker Mayfield is only being pushed this far because of recency bias and because of the depth of the quarterback pool. I see him as a top 10 quarterback this season. So yes, once again, all in on Baker Mayfield. How about a quarterback we're avoiding at ADP? I got to be honest, DVR, when I looked over at our show sheet here and saw who you put in, I was very surprised. Why are you fading Dak Prescott? I think it's got more to do with the makeup of the quarterback position this year. I mean, that's the third quarterback off the board.

He's the first in the second tier because you have Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson going usually in round two, usually right near each other. I don't think there's that much that actually separates Dak from Drew Brees, who I really like a lot at the price, even though that gets there a different way. And he took a big step forward last season. With the weapons they have in Dallas, he's set up to remain among the league's better quarterbacks. But when you start looking at what's happening at the end of the fifth round, early part of the sixth round, where deck Prescott is being drafted, you're finding that that's where the depth receivers who look like possible wide receiver ones, that's when that group

starts to run a bit thin. That's when you get to the Darren Waller portion of the tight end position. And I'm just more inclined to go a different direction than to take DAC there because I think the difference between DAC and Breeze or even the difference between DAC and some of the quarterbacks below Drew Breeze is going to be smaller than people realize. On a per game basis, I think DAC's more like a 8 to 12 range quarterback and people are overpaying for him a little bit coming off the great season that he had in 2019. Everything around him is really good, right?

He gets CD Lamb as an upgrade over Randall Cobb, still has Amari Cooper, still has Michael Gallup, still is Ezekiel Elliott. I don't think he's going to be a complete bust. I just think he's a slight overpay when you look at the actual production you're going to get at the end of the season. So I generally disagree. I will say this, though. If I am shopping in that tier of quarterbacks, the second tier of guys, deck, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Deshawn Watson, I pretty much want whichever one I can get for the lowest cost. and that is almost always been Deshawn Watson. So I would rather have Deshawn Watson around later than Dak Prescott where he is going.

So we are sort of of the same mind about that. I do think, however, that Dak Prescott deserves to be one of the top three, four quarterbacks taken in every single draft. And I think that Dallas offense is going to run things back this year just as strongly as they were a season ago. I'm looking at Cam Newton. I just think the magic's gone here, DVR. I want to believe, even though he's on the Patriots and no one who's not a Patriots fan wants to cheer for the Patriots, I love Cam Newton. I love the player. I love the game. I love everything he's been able to do over his career. He's a fun guy to watch when he was at his best. He brings a ton of personality on and off the field. We love that, right? We love that in a player showing who he actually is when he's playing, when he's not playing. And I want to believe that he can get back, get healthy, and be the guy he was before his injury riddle 2019 season. I just don't believe it. And I don't think the discount that you're getting on all those injuries. I don't think it's enough. You're still having to pay a pretty high. high price on Cam Newton here this season. And it's just something that I really don't want to get

involved with. And a lot of it has to do with that Patriots team. There's just no speed, no athleticism on that team. Julian Edelman is very good at what he does. But I don't want him as my number one receiver for my quarterback. I want someone who can stretch the field. I want someone who can make big plays after the catch. And that's just not what Julian Edelman does. You're going to be leaning heavily on Nikiel Harry this season. You've got basically no meaningful tight end in this offense. Even you look at the running back. I mean, you've got James White who's going to do what he does, but that's not really a needle mover for the quarterback. James White is good for himself, and you can invest in James White from a fantasy perspective. But we never really talked about James White juicing things for Tom Brady, and I don't think we're going to talk about it for Cam Newton either.

I just think he is a clearly past his prime quarterback. I don't think he's going to be able to run quite so much this season the way he did previously in his career. And I don't trust his supporting cast to lift him up either. So I just see three strikes on Cam Newton. He is someone who is going to end up on zero of my teams. I think even at a discount, when you look at how deep this quarterback position is, there are plenty of guys who I can find who I like better than Cam Newton.

So he is someone who I am going to be avoiding. We got a lot to talk about here, DVR. I'm sorry, I'm not going to let you talk about Cam Newton. We got to keep moving. We got to keep rolling. A QB outside the top 15 you think can finish in the top 10. I'll go Gardner Minshu here. I think it's all about the setup and the VATNU.

I think the Jags defense is putrid. I think Minchu has a chucker in his DNA to use a scientific term. I think that comes from playing for Mike Leach up at Washington State. I think he does have a pretty good group of weapons. I think DJ Shark is a legitimate number one, possible top 10 receiver in fantasy this year. Good rapport with Minshu was on display last year. I think this is a team that because of the hole at running back, it might even throw it a bit more when they're not trailing now.

So really it's a volume-based play here. It's not totally unlike what James Winston did in Tampa Bay last season. It's not necessarily going to be efficient and good from a real-life perspective. It's not going to be Gardner Minshu leading the Jaggs to a surprise playoff birth or anything like that. But it's going to be fantasy goodness. Lots of shootouts, lots of attempts, lots of 350, 400-yard games on occasion, just because they're going to have to air it out week in and week out. So Gardner Minchew's the guy for me.

I'm going to get awarded on Cam Newton anyway. Look at the supporting cast the guy had in Carolina. Even when he won the interview four or five years ago. And he and Belichick both have a chip on their shoulder right now. If Cam Newton's healthy, I think health's the big question. If he's healthy, he can take a bad supporting cast and easily finish as a top 10 fantasy quarterback with the ceiling to still be a top five guy. I think he still brings that.

He ran for 636 yards and 10 touchdowns that year. That Cam Newton is not coming back. And you can regress that half, right, and still get 318 rushing yards and five touchdowns, which would be huge rushing numbers. But I'm just not betting on that. I'm not betting after all the injuries he's had after the season he had last year. And we're talking about various injuries, leg injuries, foot, shoulder. It's just, I think, too much for him to handle at this point.

And, you know, we're talking about a guy who is now 31 years old. I mean, with all the toll that's been on his body, going back to Auburn, I just don't think the rushing can be there. and he's never been a guy who, you know, throws it all that well in terms of fantasy numbers. He had that in that MVP year, 3,800 yards and 35 TDs. Other than that, his high TD total for his entire career is 24 DVR. He needs the rushing, and I just don't believe it's going to be there enough for him to meet what his ADP expectations are. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

I don't want to disappoint you on our shared birthday, but that's just what it is. I think you are overlooking what he can still bring as a runner. I feel like I've channeled Jake Seeley by talking about a player we didn't have time to talk about anyway. All right, I'm going to give you one guy here, and then we're going to move on to the tight end position. For me, it's Jared Goff. Jared Goff's already done this before, and it was two years ago. We're treating Jared Goff as though last year is the sum total of his career, and last year was a disappointment. But we know Jared Goff has this club in his bag just two years ago, 4,600 yards and 32 touchdowns.

And last year, DVR, last year, still had more than 4,600 yards in a 7.4 white. IPA. He was still pretty decent. The big difference, though, was he lost 10 touchdowns off of 2018, threw for 22 touchdowns last year after 32 and 2018. Go back to 2017. He threw for 28 touchdowns. Todd Gurley, that high volume back is out of town. Of course, Cam Acres is going to have a big role in this offense, but I don't think it's going to quite equate to what Todd Gurley did for this team. He's gone, and I think you're looking at a ton of volume for both Cooper Cup and Robert Woods. We saw Tyler Higbee become a real impact tight end for this team. down the stretch last season, and look, you can say everything you want to say about

Gerald Everett being hurt, Brandon Cook's being hurt, them playing bad defenses. Go find me a tight end. Go find me how many tight ends had a five-game stretch along the lines of what Tyler Higbee did in that stretch that has everyone excited about him. It's going to be a very short list. So I don't care that he was there and he maybe has more competition when everyone's healthy. I don't care that he did against bad defenses. He still did it. And not many tight ends have had that sort of run that he did last season. So I see three really dangerous options in this passing game for Jared Gough. I see a very smart, forward-thinking coach who knows how to get the best out of his quarterback. Again, we have seen that before. I think we're going to experience a big bounceback year from

Jared Gough. And don't overlook the fact that I think this is going to be a high-scoring division. And that's six games that you're getting against Arizona, Seattle, and San Francisco. I think we're going to see some high-scoring games in the NFC West. And that makes up a big chunk of Jared Gough's schedule. So I really do like Jared Gough this season. Do you want to say anything about him or should we move on to tight ends? Oh, we can move on. I have nothing nice to say about Jared Gough. All right, well then let's do it. Let's get on to tight ends, a player that we're targeting at ADP at this tight end position. Who you got here? Maybe I'm a sucker. I still believe Hunter Henry can be a star at the tight end position. He's falling a little bit in ADP, just in the back of the top 10 now, the ninth tight end off

the board in NFFC drafts right around pick 100. The Chargers offense, I think, is going to have a pretty skinny tree of production. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Henry, of course. Austin Echler's going to catch a lot of passes as well. I think some people look at Tyrod Taylor and they think he's too indecisive, even though he doesn't throw interceptions, he doesn't take enough shots downfield.

That might be partially true, but I also think part of his limitations during his time as a starter in Buffalo were his supporting cast. Look back at those supporting cast. They're worse than Cam Newton's supporting cast in Carolina throughout Cam's peak. So I do think Hunter Henry is one of those guys

where even if they make a change quarterback, Justin Herbert as a rookie, I think would lean pretty heavily on him as a big target he can find in the short and intermediate passing game. I think Henry's a little better after the catch than the numbers last year would suggest as well. We've seen him pull in nine yards per target in each of his first two seasons in the league. He wasn't that far off of it coming off an injury last year at 8.6. So there's big playability, their opportunities in the red zone. And there's actually more stable quarterback play, I think, with the chargers than people are giving them credit for. Only thing that really concerns me about Henry is injuries plus cost. I wish he were a little bit cheaper on draft day, given his injury history.

But he's a guy who's basically delivered when healthy every single year of his career, even when he was fighting Antonio Gates for Target. So I do like Henry. I just worry a little bit about that injury cost combination. I'm going to go to Mike Gisicki, a guy who I know you like as well. It just feels as though we're going to see a lot of volume for Devante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gisicki in this offense. I think there is room the way this offense is structured and frankly the way this defense is structured for all three of them to get 100 targets.

That is admittedly a high-end thing that is ambitious. But if there's room for Gisiki to get 100 targets, then I would be stunned if he got fewer than 88 targets or something along those lines. And second year tight end last year, but really his first year having a major share in the Miami offense. And this was a team that was up and down, had spotty quarterback play. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fun guy, but not always the most consistent guy. It was always fighting already last year against Devante Parker and Preston Williams, even though Preston Williams only played half the season, got 89 targets, turned it into 51 catches for 570 yards and five touchdowns.

And that was as a semi-part-time player, right? I mean, he was not quite out there to the level that he is going to be out there this season, and even went out there, not quite as involved as we expect him to be this season. So I basically look at those numbers last year, 51, 570, and 5 as a floor for Mike Gisicki. And where he is being drafted, you're really not asking for more than 51, 570, and 5. If that's what he gives you, you'll live with it. You want more, but you can still profit off him at that production level. I think you're going to get a little bit better.

So give me all the Mike Gisickey that I can possibly handle this season. How about someone we're fading at ADP DVR? Who you got here? I hate to say this. and I'm someone who often goes after tight ends really early, but at this stage of his career, I can't justify drafting Rob Grankowski where he's going. He goes close to where Hunter Henry goes,

goes close to where Mike Gasecki goes. I'd rather have Hunter Henry. I'd rather have Mike Gaseki. I'd rather have Noah Fan and T.J. Hawkinson. I think aside from a very scary injury history, this is a loaded depth chart in Tampa Bay. So I think what they might be able to do is limit his snaps, limit the wear and tear, make him a legitimate good real weapon in this offense,

but it's going to be spotty volume week to week because you have Chris Godwin, you have Mike Evans, you now have a running back who can be on the field and catch some passes in Leonard Fournette. You have other tight ends who are capable with OJ Howard and Cameron Brate. So it's a mess at this tight end position, at this wide receiver position. There's so much competition for targets. I know he's got the familiarity with Brady. That's great. But you're talking about a situation where Gronk might be the fourth or fifth option in the passing game,

and he might be a very limited player. I mean, yeah, maybe those opportunities come mostly in the red zone, but you're basically looking at a very TD-dependent guy with one of the scariest injury histories in the NFL. I know the training camp reports were really good. It'd be a great story to see him producing at a high level again. I just don't see it happening. I think he's entirely Tide-dependent DVER. I think there is a realistic scenario in which he doesn't even lead tight.

in Tampa in targets. I don't think it's a huge chance, but I think it's one in five that OJ Howard or Cameron Brayette ends up out targeting him this season. So I'm with you, Rob Gruncowski, just not going to be on any of my teams. I'm also going with the name brand here. It's Evan Ingram. Another guy who I think is in danger of being the fifth option in his own passing game. Again, probably slim chance that all four of Sequin Barkley, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard have more targets than Evan Ingram. But there's a chance. There's got to be like a one and eight chance that that ends up happening. And what I think there is a zero percent chance of happening is Evan Ingram being in even the top two in targets on this team. You just have

a ton of competition for Daniel Jones attention in New York. And you have quite possibly now that Jason Garrett is the OC with the Giants, the highest volume running back in the league in Sequan Barkley. He was not hurting four carries or targets before Jason Garrett got there. I think we're looking at even a slight bump for him in both of those categories. this season, and you're still not really getting any sort of meaningful discount on Evan Ingram. You still have to be thinking about him in the same range where you're thinking about guys like Hunter Henry, like that tier of tight end. So I just can't get on board with Evan Ingram here. Just too much for me, too much going on in that Giants offense for me to really feel good about him. We got one more

thing here, DVR, and then we're going to let you go. Tight end outside the top 15, who could finish inside the top 10? It seems that there are more capable options than usual at the position. I'm going to dig real deep here. If I'm throwing a Hail Mary at the tight end position, I don't even know if I'm doing this in a traditional league. It probably has to be something like a two tight end league or a league with massive benches. But I think Jay Sternberger is going to be a bigger part of the Packers' offense

than people realize. It might even take a few weeks. I've heard some good things about Robert Tonian, possibly emerging as an earlier season option. Packers have a significant investment in Sternberger. I think there's a chance that this develops over time, so I don't file him away more as like a waiver wire sort of pick up in the early weeks of the season than someone you must have on draft day. If you're looking for someone a bit more draftable, Ian Thomas in Carolina.

I think he ends up being probably the fourth option in that passing game. I do believe in Curtis Samuel as kind of the third guy behind Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore. but Ian Thomas, now that Greg Olson's finally completely out of the picture entering a season, I think Ian Thomas can actually thrive as the Panthers primary pass catching option at tight end. Yeah, Ian Thomas is one of those popular guys. And you're right that there are a lot of options for this answer. Plenty of them are going to fall short, but we do have plenty of options. I feel like the tight end position is one of those that is deceptive in its non-depth

because there are plenty of guys that we can talk ourselves into at this position. I mean, you said it yourself. They're like, you look at all those guys who you mentioned when you were talking about people you'd rather have over Grunk, Noah Fant, T.J. Hawkinson. I mentioned Mike Gisicki. You've got Dallas Goddard, Johnny Smith, Chris Herndon. You just threw out Ian Thomas, right? There are plenty of guys we can talk ourselves into. It's not going to happen for most of them.

And that includes the guy who I'm going to throw out Eric Ebron. I say this is based entirely on touchdown upside because we saw the guy catch 13 touchdown two years ago, his last healthy season. with the Indianapolis Colts. And someone who has always tantalized us with his talent and never quite delivered on it. But Ben Rafflesberger has been dying for a reliable tight end target ever since Heath Miller retired.

And he has one now in Eric Ebron. And again, I think a pretty skinny tree in this passing game. You're going to have Jugi. You're going to have Deontay Johnson. James Washington is going to do what he does deep down the field, but probably not more realistically than about a 70, maybe 80 target guy. I think we're going to see Eric Ebron be a big weapon for this team in the red zone. And that's something that they really need.

Juju hasn't proved himself to be a big red zone weapon receiving for this team. Deontay Johnson and James Washington have improved themselves to be reliable targets, period. I mean, we think they can do it, but we haven't actually seen it for them. Eric Ebron has that track record of being a red zone weapon. And I think that's why the Steelers went out and made him such a priority. Not only did they need a tight end, but they needed someone who could be a reliable target for Big Ben. in the red zone. Eric Ebron, they killed two birds with one stone by signing him. So I expect him to have a big role in the offense. It could be another, you know, 550-yard season, something like that is a max.

50 catches for 500 yards, 550 yards. But I wouldn't be surprised if that came with seven or eight touchdowns also. So based on that touchdown upside, I think we could ultimately talk about Eric Ebron as a top 10 tight end this year. That's going to do it for the fantasy portion of this show. But before we say goodbye to DVR, DVR, I can't let you go without being part of the Manscaped ad read, right? I wouldn't be good being a good birthday friend if I did that. Fantasy football draft season, it's here, it's upon us. We're talking about it last draft weekend here. Manscaped is also here to make sure you don't gamble on shaving the same way you gamble on football.

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This has been great, man. Our first, our maiden voyage here on this Friday show we'll be doing all season. This has been great. We're gonna say goodbye to you here. Happy birthday again, dude. Yeah, happy birthday. Hope you enjoy the long weekend.

Yeah, you too. You too. We will get on to the gambling portion of this show with Vic Tafer right after this. All right. part one down part two to go we move on to the gambling portion of this athletic fantasy football podcast athletic fantasy show or athletic football show excuse me marriage we bring on one of our

two raiders beat writers and one of our gambling guys here at the athletic to do so vic tafer vick how you doing today do good man how you doing i am also doing good i like the uh the little musical accompaniment you've got in the background there uh vick as i already said a little bit earlier in the show, you and I are going to be bringing our favorite picks of the week every single week here on this episode. But we don't have picks of the week this week because the NFL season starts next week. So instead of that, we are going to look at some of our favorite futures plays of the season. And we're just going to start big.

We're going to start right off the bat with the Super Bowl, looking at every single team in the league, one through 32. If you were making a futures wager, who would you put it on? I think it got to go with the chalk. I think both the Chiefs and the Ravens have a big leg up to everybody else. So I think it's not very exciting, not very sexy, but I think those teams have a good shot at wearing the title. And then I also like the Cowboys, kind of my, I guess, my quasi-sleeper.

But for the most part, I think the chalk is the way to go. Yeah, so we've got the Chiefs at Plus 600, the Ravens at Plus 650. Those are the two favorites on the board. And with good reason, the Chiefs, of course, won the Super Bowl. last year the Ravens had the best record in the NFL, two best quarterbacks, I think, in the NFL, certainly the best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, our last two MVP's, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, so a lot of good reason to believe in those two teams, of course, and hey, six to one, six and a half to one on your money, it's the chalk, but still not a bad return. Cowboys down at

plus 1500, what is it about that team that has you buying into them this season? That's weird. I'm not really a, have not been a big, Jack Prescott guy, but I think this year, with McCarthy coming in, the offense that they have, and the tools around them, obviously is good. They're running back, their receivers. Defense is pretty good. So I think kind of being stopped on a little bit. I think they're a pretty good team who definitely, I think the offense was better than it was last year. Yeah, that offense is going to be explosive. No really fear of a shootout in Dallas. If they have to score, we think they're going to be very capable of scoring and, of course, going to be interesting to see how that team changes, even with all that

personnel carryover with Jason Garrett gone and Mike McCarthy now running the show. He did keep Kellynne more on staff as the OC, but we know Mike McCarthy, an offensive coach, is going to bring his own brand of offense to Dallas. For me, Vic, I'm going pretty chalky too. I just can't get away from this New Orleans Saints team. This will be the third year in a row now that I have predicted them to win the Super Bowl. Plus 1,100 is their Super Bowl odds. And they've been there, right each of the last two seasons, a couple of heartbreaks at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. One heartbreak in the NFC championship game a couple of years ago at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams with a little bit of help from a non-pass interference call that changed the rules in the NFL.

But I still think top to bottom, offense and defense, this is the best roster in the league. I will say, as we sit here recording this mid-afternoon on Friday, September 4th, the Alvin-Camara situation does still scare me a little bit. to get a long-term extension there, hoping for a long-term extension there. I feel as though there's too much for both sides to lose. This is such a good marriage of player and team. And you look at the Saints, still with that Super Bowl window open, with their first Ballot Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees,

being in his age 41 season. It has the feeling of a now or never season for the Saints. So I just feel like there's too much at stake for both the team and for Camara for this to completely go off the rails. Where are you standing on the Saints this season? Yeah, I'm with you on Camara. I think he'll be fine. I think he'll bounce back here for him.

I think he'll figure out the money situation. Either get a new deal or else play a heart for a new deal somewhere else next year. I do like the idea of which Dave and Clowny is the kind of the last piece. We're talking to him right now. I think he's kind of, I mean, he's so overrated. Now he's underrated. I think he's kind of great. He's always too extremes with him.

But I think he definitely is good against Iran. To be a fact against the past, it makes them a lot better if it added to the mix. So I think I like that idea of him as a final piece to your Super Bowl team. Yeah, Gidevian Clowny in negotiations with, or at least has had an offer extended to him by the New Orleans Saints. Tennessee Titans in on him too. And again, just mid-afternoon, I am in the central time zone. It's about 3 p.m. in the central time zone at the time of this recording. So it's entirely possible that by time you are out there listening to this,

Gadavion and Clowny has signed with the New Orleans Saints or perhaps of the Titans or hey, maybe even with a different team. But definitely the last piece or could be a big piece for that Saints defense. Let's move on to division winners here, Vic. both have a couple of teams listed. You have a team that I love. So let's start with that Houston Texans team. Both of us are on the Houston Texans plus 350 to win this division. Let me just say really quick before I ask you for your take on Houston, what attracted me to this team. How often do you see a team with the objective best quarterback in their own division, which Houston has in Deshawn Watson,

have the third best odds to win that division, which Houston also has? We've got Indy at plus 120, the Titans at plus 160, and then way down at plus 350, 3.5 to 1 on your money, you find the Houston Texans. That right there, if I can get the third best odds in the division with the obvious best quarterback in the division, I'm taking that all day, Vic. That was well said. For me, it was more I'm not really in love the Texans, but I'm pretty anti-cultz. I also think that the Tannenhills are going to come back to Earth kind of season. I've got this big pay base. So I think both the Colts and Titans take a step back. And, you know, seeing a lot about Bill O'Brien.

He definitely is controversial. Most of the people don't like him. He's ripped a lot. But, you know, they make the playoffs most every year. I mean, somehow he survives in a pretty good defense. He mentioned he's still got some tools of the receiver. So, I mean, David Johnson, I have no idea what he's going to be able to do. But definitely the pressure's on.

And definitely they made no bones about it. He's going to be their guy. So if he's the guy who was a couple years ago, and yeah, all of a sudden, you're right, the offense is really good again. So I think for me, it was more, I just don't want to support the culture Titans are there.

But I like you're the way you put it. The way you put it was nice. I think definitely Sean Watson is the best quarterback in that division and that's the reason to take them. Yeah, following the best quarterback often is going to work out. And you look at what they've got on defense, right? J.J. Watt, not at his peak. We're talking about a decade into his career

now, which is hard to believe, but still a very disruptive player when he's healthy. Same goes for Whitney Merciless. They did use that second round pick on Ross Blacklock, nose tackle to shore up the defensive line. It feels as though we could be getting back to a Texans defense of old, a little bit more activity after the quarterback than we've seen. And again, losing DeAndre Hopkins, not easy to replace.

And I don't think they found a replacement, but they do have plenty of good bodies to throw at that wide receiver position after adding Brandon Cooks and Randall Cobb to go along with Will Fuller. Let's look at a couple of other division picks we've got here. You are on the Seattle Seahawks at plus 220 to win this division. This is going to be a very competitive NFC West, I believe, and that is reflected in the division-winning odds. We've got the 49ers minus 106, the Seahawks at plus 220,

the Rams at plus 550, and the Cardinals at plus 700. I suppose you could follow that same logic I just put out there for Deshawn Watson. Russell Wilson, best quarterback in the division. How much of that does that have to do with it here? I was going to say, yeah, I like him. I'll just pick it back to what you said earlier. But for me, I think the Natives also took a step back. I kind of went against more like teams that thought.

We're going to take a step back and look who's going to fill a void. And, you know, Seattle was right there last year. Russell Wilson's definitely one of the better players in the league. I think there was a game last year against in the Irish, where Marshall Lynch, the guys helped up the sidelines in the key play. Who doesn't, they probably win that game. The whole whole season is different. So I think they were that close.

We'll forget that. I think they have made some changes this year. I liked their team at cap's a guy to go to a breakout year for them. So I like their tools, both are offensive defense. I think they're better enough 49-ish. So I think that's why I would take them to the division. Yeah, I mean, that very last game of the season decided the NFC, West decided who is getting buys in the first round of the playoffs.

Things could have gone a whole lot differently in the postseason if the Seahawks, what is it with the Seahawks in pressure situations being inside the five-yard line and things somehow heartbreakingly not working out for them? We saw that last year as well. So I'm with you. I think the Seahawks are a solid pick there. It's not a pick I would make it just plus 220, but I do think the Seahawks are right there in the division.

That's something we're going to do here on this. on this episode every week. We're going to be as transparent with you. We're going to tell you bets that we are making, bets that we're not necessarily making. So we want you to know that we are actually going to be right there with you if you are taking our advice. I like the Browns.

I know that sounds crazy, but I really like this Browns team plus 550 to win the AFC North. I'm not saying that the – let me say this. I am not picking straight up the Browns to win the AFC North. I think you have to pick the Baltimore Ravens. Clearly the best team in the division. But if I'm not going to be able to.

getting five and a half to one return on my money. I can talk myself into the Browns at that price because I think they rectified the issues that they had offensively last year. Freddie Kitchens probably in over his head. Maybe he'll be a good head coach one day. It definitely wasn't the case in 2019 promoted too far, too fast. He is now gone back to being a tight ends coach. And we've got Kevin Stefanski in the driver's seat in Cleveland after a successful 10 year as the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. That was a big weakness for this offense last year. The other big weakness was on the offensive line. What did they do to address it? They go out, they signed Jack Conklin. They use the 10th overall pick in the draft on Jedrick Wills.

Now we have a real protection scheme up in front of Baker Mayfield that is going to let him flourish and let all those skill position players flourish. You've still got OBJ. You've got Jarvis Landry. You've got Nick Chubb. You've got Cream Hunt for a full season. You have a tight end upgrade in Austin Hooper. And you still have that other guy in David and Joe. who's sitting there. I think this could be the offense we expected in 2019 showing up in this 2020 season. And at five and a half to one, that is a bet that I am willing to make, a risk I am willing to take. I really do like this Cleveland Browns team in the AFCU North, fully admitting that the Baltimore Ravens are not only the better team, but arguably the very best team in

the NFL coming into the season. Vic, let's move on to win totals here. We're flying right along in this first episode. We've got a bunch of win totals that we like. We're probably not going to be able to all both mention. We've got a bunch of win totals that we like. We're probably not going to be able to all both mention every single one that we like here. So of these ones that you've got listed, why don't you just pick at least one of them out, pick one of them out here. Maybe

we can do two apiece and then we'll fly through the others. Give me one of these that you have listed that you are behind in a big way this season. Well, real quick, I'll say that two teams here's mentioned, the Browns and the Ravens, both going over. The Browns are at eight and a half, or actually it's on eight some places. So I like the Browns. I'm with

you and all that. Kitchen's definitely was well over his head. I think Mayfield comes a big bounce back year. I love the O-line. Defense is going to be pretty good this year. So the Browns are over, have the Ravens over 11-a-half. The Ravens, I think, I think I made this joke earlier, but I wasn't really joking. They have a chance to go undefeated, I think. Their schedule sets up nicely. I think the one I think the cardinals under. I think the Cardinals, I was surprised at one of the games they did last year. I think Connie Murray had no business winning rookie of the year for the first six games in the road this year. So I think it all lines up for a bad start and I'll make that finish. So I think

the Cardinals under seven and a half. I think it's also seven in some places. It's also the way I would go. Yeah, I'll save my Cardinals rebuttal for our next section here. We are different. I could be buying into the hype again with sort of the preseason winner the way I did with Cleveland last year. But I think there are reasons to believe in that team at least going 500 and making a playoff push. My favorite win total bet this season, Vic, is in that division. that you are so familiar with the AFC West, it is the Chargers under seven and a half. I just think that team ends up taking a big step back this year. At Phillip Rivers' loss, I don't think it can be overstated.

And that's not meant to be a knock on Tyrae Taylor. It really isn't because I think Tyra Taylor is much better than he gets credit for, dragged those Buffalo teams to some pretty respectable years and teams that didn't have a ton of offensive talent around him that he was able to put on his back. I think he's probably got better offensive talent around him with L.A. at Austin Echler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, when he comes back from the shoulder injury, Hunter Henry. I think there's a better offensive infrastructure around him this year in L.A.

than he ever really had in Buffalo. But Philip Rivers was such a good fit for what that team did because you had Austin Echler, a guy who is a true route runner as a running back. And Philip Rivers has always vibes with his running backs in the passing game. And we saw that with Echler last year, 92 grabs 993 yards. And you look at Keenan Allen. a real timing guy, not a guy who's going to kill you deep, but a guy who is just death by a thousand cuts as a receiver, right?

Such an incisive route runner, and he was someone who was a perfect fit with Philip Rivers skill set. I think Tyra Taylor has, you know, a nice skill set, a desirable skill set, but not one that necessarily fits as well with Echler and with Keenan Allen, the way that Philip Rivers did. You look at the defensive side of the ball, a team that can get after the quarterback, but that Derwin James, a loss cannot be overstated. That is a huge chunk out of what this defense.

was scheming to do this season and feeling like it was going to be able to do. So I just think that under seven and a half is a nice number on this Chargers team. I'll give you one more really quick here. I like the Dolphins over six. I think that that is actually a division that is pretty soft. I don't think I really buy any of the teams in that division. Look at Buffalo, you look at the Patriots, you look at the Jets. I think there's three wins in the division, at least, for the dolphins.

And I like what they've done with their offense, whether it's Tua or if it's, Patrick, they've sneakily put together a pretty exciting group around those guys. Preston Williams, Devante Parker, Mike Gisicki, a one-two punch in the backfield of Jordan Howard and Matt Breda. That's not a bad offense by any stretch. And I think whether it's fits for the entire year or two, it takes over at some point, it's going to be a team that wins some games. And another team that threw a wrench into the playoff race in week 17 last year with their huge upset of the New England Patriots. That's a team that could have very easily just rolled over, accepted its fate as a, you know, bottom dwelling team and just played out the string at the end of the season, but they didn't.

That shows you a team that really believes in its coach, and I think Brian Flores deserves a lot of credit for what went down in Miami last year and what they're starting to build with that team this year. So I think if they can do that, if they can pick up at least three wins in the division, there's at least three other wins for them on the schedule that at least gets me to a push. It's not the easiest bet in the world, but I do think the Dolphins over six is a bet that feels like it could hit on it here. Am I crazy for buying into the dolphins, or is that something you can see going down as well?

I think we're going to go ahead to head a lot this year. It's really fun because I'm definitely, I think the Chargers is going to be actually better and people think they're going to be. I think losing rivers was actually a good thing. I think he was kind of chucking the ball up the last couple of years. I think Taylor's definitely a big improvement.

I think the dolphins, I'm not buying the dolphins either. I think the divisions are very and think it is. I think the Jets are actually not terrible. I think the Patriots are actually surprisingly good this year and Cam Newton will have bounce back year. I don't know how the golfers won into five games last. year. That was a miracle. This year, the team's actually actually prepared. I'll actually prepare

those scouts of the offense this year. They actually like take him seriously. So I'm not buying Fitzmagic, usually if it's Magic year two, turns pretty bad. So I think he's been on a lot of teams for a reason. So I'm not buying either one of those things. So it'll be fun. I think when I look at this season, it's

simple for me. If Philip Rivers has a good year, I'm going to be wrong a lot. So that's my main point for, I think, the whole season in the nutshell. If he's good that I'm wrong a lot this year. I like this. I do like this. We want these unforced differences of opinion. So this is this is very good. I like the divisions that Miami made defensively too. When you throw Kyle Van Nuoy in the mix,

first round pick Noah Igben Ogeny. I think I've got that right. Another nice defensive back for that team. I think they're going to be a little bit stronger in the back end of the defense than we've seen for them in recent years. Some other things that we like here. I've also got the Titans under eight and a half, Browns over eight. No surprise after what I said about them potentially being in that division mix and the Saints over 10. You've got the Dolphins under six, Cardinals under seven, the Browns over eight. So we are both liking those teams and Ravens over 11 and a half, as you said, Colts under eight and a half. Let's move on to our next thing here, Vic.

Teams we are thinking to make or miss the playoffs. You've got the Cowboys to make at minus 182, and we've already heard you on the Cowboys. the Falcons 2 miss at minus 286. So you're paying a little bit of a premium. You must feel pretty confident that this Falcons team is just not going to be in the playoff hunt at all this season. Yeah, I've got on a tough division. I think Dan Quinn's kind of on his last legs here.

We have the thing just definitely I thought of a poll, all the riders do a poll, and we had to pick the first coach we thought was fired. And Dan Kuhl was a guy I picked. I think he's survived the last couple of years. They've kind of waiting to see a big turnaround from the offensive man Ryan and the defense bites. So I think, I think he has a moment.

I think usually the coaches at this point, players kind of tune them out and kind of move on, get ready for the next guy to come in and kind of change the philosophy. As we always said, they've changed the culture. So I think the new culture, I think a division is too tough that you're going to make a real splash. So I like the laying the wood so they won't make the playoffs. Yeah, Dan Quinn, obviously a defensive coach,

and he's really gotten saved by his offense year after year. It's a team that has lived on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devante Freeman when he was there. and needs that defense to show up in a bigger way this season. They, too, went defense in the first round, AJ Terrell, the cornerback, and we'll see how much of a change that is there. I am not on Atlanta to make the playoffs as a bet,

but I am on Atlanta to miss the playoffs just as a thing. I don't think that they are going to be a team that is in the playoff hunt this season. I've got a couple of makes that are plus money that I like a little bit here. The first one that I'll fly through relatively quickly is the Detroit Lions. Now, first and foremost, this is a tough division. I don't think there's any bad team in this division. Packers obviously went 13 and 3 last year. The Vikings were a playoff team last year.

Bears took a big step back from their 2018 season, but still managed an eight-and-eight-eight-year with that big step back and with very poor quarterback play from the Mitch Trubrisky, Chase Daniel, combination. Not a bad team in the division. So Detroit is going to have a tough six games when it is living in the NFL. NFC North. But Detroit was a team that lost eight games, Vic, eight games last year by one score. And that is often been found to just be bad luck, right, to lose eight games like the way they

did last season. And so many of those came without Matthew Stafford, even on the field for them. They only got half a season out of Matthew Stafford, then a back injury knocked him out of competition. They were playing pretty well with a combination of David Blow and Jeff Triscoll at the quarterback position. Maybe pretty well is overstating it, but they were at least competitive with those two guys at quarterback. I think with a full healthy season out of Matthew Stafford, this team is going to look a lot different. I think it could be an explosive offense with the Healthy Stafford, an ascending Kenny Ghaladay and D'Andre Swift in the fold. We could also get a nice big year out of T.J. Hawkinson, admittedly, even with the Jeff Okuda edition in the first

round, the third overall pick, it's going to be a bad defense. They're going to have to score because that defense looks like it could be a problem. But at plus 340, I do like rolling the dice on them. I'll get to the difference of opinion. I'm buying into the Cardinals, plus 275. I just think that Kyler Murray, excuse me, is for real. I think we're going to see him be that next big quarterback. Not as good as Mahomes, not as good as Lamar, but I do think he takes that big second year leap

the way that we saw from both of those guys and carries this team, puts the team on his back. Again, another team that I am a little bit concerned about with the division schedule, because probably not a bad team in that division either. San Francisco, L.A., Seattle, even if we see a step back from San Francisco, they're not suddenly going to be a five and 11 team.

So a tough six games in the division. But if Kyla Murray does take that step forward that a lot of people, myself included, are expecting from him, I do think that this could be a team that is contending for a playoff spot and getting plus 275 on my money is something that I am willing to do here. Obviously, you think that's a little crazy. Nothing on plus 275. Don't think there's anything in the cards for the cards this year?

Well, also that I mean, Ken and Drake is great. he's hurt already, and I just think that the offense, I'm not sure. I mean, again, if Murray's the guy, like you say, that I'm going to be wrong. But I think Murray's fine. I also know if he's that guy. I think also the problem last year, I thought it wasn't really loose. He didn't really like kind of held him back with as far as a little run that off. I thought they were trying to force him to a certain kind of offense.

So I don't know if Kingsbury's going to change this year, become a little more exciting, I guess, is the word. I mean, you thought he was going to get hired. So I don't know. I just think the offense is not quite there. and in the mix of the defense. I always see them. It's going to be tough to win two games at division, I think. So for me, I'll be a reason why I probably shy out way.

Yeah, division is definitely something that scares me on both of those, the Cardinals and the Lions. And I could see that sub-arining both of them. But I just think that those prices present enough value to chase the upside with both of those teams. Let's take a look at some player bets here, Vic. We're going to get into MVP. We're going to start off philosophically at this proposition,

or at this proposition. Christian McCaffrey, we all know the year he had last year, 1387 yards on the ground, 116 catches, 1,000 5 yards through the air, 19 total touchdowns. That's about as good a year as you can have as a skill player, and he was nowhere near winning the MVP award. Is this a quarterback award? Is that it?

You got to be a quarterback to win this? Yeah, that's incredible. I mean, like you said, the half the year he did, not even be mentioned, like not even a fight. Like, ah, it's amazing. So I think it really is the best quarterback. And you really mentioned earlier, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. It seems like those two guys, they run this league for a while,

maybe they'll pass the trophy back and forth. But it's hard to pick somebody else besides those two guys who are trying to bet for MVP, I think. All right, so we've got Mahomes at plus 400. We've got Lamar at plus 600. Those are the two top players on the board. Deck Prescott plus 2,200, someone you talked about earlier as being a potential MVP candidate.

You did mention to me offline, though, one deep, one deep, deep, deep MVP candidate that you could see maybe making a play on George Kittle? You think George Kittle could be someone who does this? If you got five bucks burning a hole in your pocket and you want to get rid of it, I mean, it's 100 to 1? I mean, no receiver has ever won MVP, that's pretty obvious. But I think he's got so much media love. And I think, Jimmy Gropin for some reason, people don't give him credit. I mean, I'm not saying he's great, but he's better than I think when people give him credit for him. maybe it's too good looking out what the problem is.

But I think so even if they do well this year, if you do like say surprise last year's win total than ever deeper into playoffs, I'm not sure he'll get all the credit. I think people will say, you know what, George kills a guy, he blocks and catches and makes the offense go. So I think there's a tiny chance

that they are the best team in the league that maybe he gets to the credit and not even cheap. There is a narrative element to this MVP discussion. There is every single year, every single sport that's always going to be part of the discussion. And George Kittle has become such a thing that it doesn't take being an NFL insider to know about his blocking.

It's right. It's just like he is widely assumed to be the best blocking tight end in the NFL. And that's something that is going to redound to his benefit in this discussion. He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end two years ago with 1377 yards. Last year goes over 1,000 yards again. And when you look at his role in the offense, the number of catches he gets, it feels as though there's some positive regression in the tight end or in the touchdown department, excuse me, in line for him.

Just five scores in both of the last two seasons. And when you get 130 targets as he did in 2018, when you catch 85 plus balls as he has done both of the last two years and you play the role in the offense that he does in San Francisco, it seems like more of an eight or nine touchdown guy. So it would take a confluence of a hell of a lot of events for him to cash in on that 100 to one ticket. but he is the sort of guy who could make that confluence happen. Yeah, I was going to ask that he loves the camera. He has that big rock conversation.

So all we'll take is a big international TV. And he goes that rock thing. He goes, oh, you know, and kind of picks up, hey, what about him for MVP? It kind of picks up steam. And once that train leaves the station, maybe you're going for a nice ride. But, yeah, it's a crazy long shot. But all the ones in that list, of all the guys, that's the one guy that maybe has a, you know, tiniest possible chance.

I'm not crazy. It would be crazy. But like I said, if we've got five bucks, you want to get rid of it. That's the way to do it. All right, I'm going to get through mine pretty quickly because we've already talked about him. I've actually made this bet. I made this bet whatever the day was in March that Arizona traded for DeAndre Hopkins,

I immediately bet on Kyler Murray to win the MVP because, as I said, I think he can be that dude. I think he can be that next guy in the Mahomes-Lamar pattern to have a breakout second season. Last year, as you said, they didn't really fully unleash him as a runner. I think we see a little bit more from him as a runner this year. And last year, he did not have anyone near DeAndre Hopkins level in the receiving game. And that's not a knock on Christian Kirk. That's not a knock on Larry Fitzgerald who keeps getting it done into his mid to late 30s.

It is nothing about that. But you need a dude like DeAndre Hopkins who can go up and get it for you in any situation, who can be that safety valve when things are breaking down, who can do things deep, who can be a killer in the red zone. DeAndre Hopkins has every single wide receiver club in his bag. And I think that, plus Cliff Kingsbury, plus Kyler in his second year, plus the ability to run the ball that he has all come together and make him a viable MVP candidate. Plus $2,500 are the odds on Kyler Murray. Give you a couple of other of the top guys. Russell Wilson is also

at plus 600 with Lamar. Tom Brady plus 2000. DeShon Watson plus 2000. Drew Breeds joins Dak Prescott at plus 2,200. Aaron Rogers and Carson Wentz joined Kyler Murray at plus 2,500. We got Baker, Mayfield, Matt Ryan at plus 3,300, and then we get to our first non-quarterback, Derek Henry, last year's rushing champ, at plus 4,000. We've got time for one more topic. We've got to be quick on these ones, Vic. Let's talk rookie of the year. Of course, Joe Burrow and Clyde Edwards-Helair, the chalk here. Joe Burrow plus 200, big-time chalk. Clyde Edwards-Hillair down at plus 700. For me, Vic, I'm probably going to be staying away from these rookie of the year bets. It's just too easy to get behind Burrow or Edwards-Hillair and too

hard to get behind everyone else. If I was going to have a little bit of fun with this, I look at Jonathan Taylor, 20 to 1 plus 2,000. Marlon Mack's still there, but Jonathan Taylor was an absolute beast at Wisconsin, one of the very best, most accomplished running backs in NCAA history, and it wasn't just that Wisconsin line. Don't get caught up behind. Oh, you know, Melvin Gordon, Monty Ball, these guys. come to the league from Wisconsin and they don't live up to their college pedigree. Jonathan Taylor is a guy who is going to live up to his college pedigree. A sprinter, this guy has sprinter speed, he has breakaway ability.

He can do pretty much everything you want out of a running back. I think the one thing that potentially holds him back this year is Marlon Mack's presence and frankly Naim Hines as a receiver as well. But Jonathan Taylor is already the best back on that indie roster. Another great line goes from maybe the best line in college in Wisconsin to potentially the best line in the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts, I think there's going to be a lot of work and a lot of production for the rookie out of Wisconsin.

Yeah, I'm with you. I probably wouldn't touch this category. I think Burrow and I got the Chiefs for working, I think aren't be too hard to bet against and it's not really the great value of betting on those guys. So my long shot would be Moss from the bills, I think, was a 50 to 1. Could be their main running back.

Again, there's only shot me to pile up some big numbers. They're going to run the ball a lot. But I like Taylor as well, but I just think like you mentioned, I think Mack is going to be too much of a problem as far as winning the majority of the touches this year. So I think they'll have a straight backfield for longer than people want to think as far as the polls go. Yeah, definitely might be a 20-21 situation for Jonathan Taylor before he takes over.

And that's probably true of a lot of rookie running backs this year, D'Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, two guys who are going to have good years, I think, but maybe not full-on workhorse type years until next season. Some of the other top odds for rookie of the year, too, a tug of Iloa also at plus 700. Jerry Judy and D'Andre Swift at plus 1,200, Justin Herbert and Henry Riggs at plus, or Henry Ruggs, excuse me, at plus 1,400, C.D. Lamb plus 1,800.

And then we've got J.K. Dobbins and Jalen Rieger at plus 2,000 along with Jonathan Taylor. That's going to do it for this episode here. Vic, pretty good first episode. I think we're getting in a groove here, my friend. I've got some kicks off. Good. We stretch out a little bit. Next time we'll be good to go. Yeah, next time we'll be talking about week one picks.

one week from today next Friday. Thank you so much for joining us on this athletic fantasy football podcast and athletic football show for Vic Tafer and Derek Van Riper. I am Michael Bellar. We will be back with you next week. Until then, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.