The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 1 DFS Plays and Picks Against the Spread

Episode Date: September 11, 2020

Week 1 is here, and the first full Sunday of NFL action can't arrive soon enough. Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper get you ready for the DFS weekend ahead with their favorite plays at every position, and various lineup-building strategies. Then, Beller and Vic Tafur make their five favorite picks against the spread for the week. They also both give an upset special, and weigh in on survivor pools, where there aren't a lot of attractive picks in Week 1.Rundown3:25 The Latest on Injuries to Courtland Sutton, Kenny Golladay and Mike Evans7:21 Games to Target in DFS Contests9:24 Quarterbacks to Play in Week 111:56 A Bears Stack Led By Mitch Trubisky?15:28 The Difficulty of Working Christian McCaffrey Into Lineups17:46 Lots of Love for Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon19:58 Targeting the Mid-Level Wide Receivers24:18 Paying the Premium for George Kittle?27:52 Trusting Washington's Defense Against the Eagles?32:03 Let's Make Some Picks Against the Spread32:52 Dolphins-Patriots34:45 Browns-Ravens36:46 Jets-Bills39:12 Raiders-Panthers40:49 Bears-Lions42:03 Colts-Jaguars43:46 Chargers-Bengals47:23 Cardinals-49ers49:57 Buccaneers-Saints52:30 Cowboys-Rams54:15 Steelers-Giants56:34 Picks Recap and Upset Specials59:19 Backing the Bills in Survivor PoolsVic's Picks ColumnFollow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafurGet a subscription to The Athletic for $1/month at theathletic.com/fantasyfootballpod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Now is the time to celebrate because football is back, and Draft Kings, the leader in one-day fantasy sports, is putting you in the center of this weekend's action with over $8 million up for grabs across all of their contests. To kick off the season, Draft Kings is giving new users a free shot at a $1 million top prize with your first deposit when you use code Maze. That's M-A-Y-S during sign-up.

Get in on the action now. Draft your lineup now and feel the sweat like never before. Every run, pass, and catch means more with the Draft King's lineup. It's simple. Just pick your lineup, stand, or the salary cap, and see how your team stacks up against the competition. Nothing adds to the sweat of watching the game quite like having a shot at a million-dollar top prize. Draft Kings has paid out billions of dollars to winner since 2012 so they know a thing or two about cold hard cash. Download the Draft Kings app now and use code Maze. For a limited time, new users can get a free shot at the $1 million top prize and compete for over $8 million in prizes across all contests.

Don't miss the extra special week one bonus. Enter code Maze to get a free shot at the $1 million top prize with your first deposit. That's code Maze only at Draft Kings. Make it rain. Minimum $5 deposit required, eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com for details. This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello, everyone, and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show,

a joint effort as we will have every single Friday here through the NFL season. I am Michael Bellar. I am joined by Derek Van Riper Friday, September 11th, one NFL game down. We saw the Chiefs take down the Houston Texans 34 to 20 to kick off the season, kick off their Super Bowl title defense. And, hey, Clyde Edwards Hilaire drafters, oh boy, Derek, I got to think they're among the happiest football fans out there right now. Yeah, absolutely. I wish I was on board early on when I was doing my drafts. I've got my home league coming up on Sunday night.

Yeah, we missed week one in my home league. at least we're having it this year, so I guess that's the silver lining. But I imagine that Clyde Edwards Hilaire with that volume in the opener and the performance itself probably creeps up into that top tier price-wise since it's a small 10-team auction. He probably does. Man, I mean, the volume, you said it. No receptions, which is maybe a tiny bit concerning, but he looked every bit the part of a first rounder pretty much every time he had the ball in his hands.

And he maybe didn't convert those goal-line touches, but no doubt about who Andy Reid thinks his goal-line. back should be with what we saw from them in week one. Six goal line carries for Clyde Edward Talar. So you got to be feeling good. Really, any one of fantasy note in that game gave you something. Patrick Mahomes, of course, Deshawn Watson threw for a touchdown, ran for a touchdown. Travis Kelsey had a nice game. A little bit of garbage time touchdown out of Tyreek Hill.

Eight catches for 112 yards for Will Fuller. Pretty much everyone who was a notable fan. David Johnson. I got a figure David Johnson goes over 100 total yards and a touchdown. Almost every fantasy player of note. had a game that their fantasy owners. I have to be very happy about here on this Friday. So a great way to get the season started,

and we're going to keep things rolling here on the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. We're going to start off these Friday shows, always, by looking at the injuries that we have to be considering over the next 48 hours as we get ready to set our fantasy lineups. We're going to start with the big ones.

The guys who did not practice on Friday, the first two, these are really. really big ones. Cortland Sutton, not practicing on Friday for the Broncos. That is a Monday night game. Things are not looking good for him, a sprained AC joint. At this point, I think you have to be planning to not have Cortland Sutton out there for you, even if he does end up playing for the Broncos, because you're probably going to have to make this decision before you know on Cortland Sutton. I don't think we get any more news between now and when we're setting our lineups on Sunday. So we sit in Sutton down this week, Derek? I think you have to. I think the

sprained AC joint is one of those injuries where even one of guys start to play through it after a little bit of time off. You always worry that the range of motion is going to be limited and the effectiveness of a receiver getting off of jams at the line, but also just making catches and traffic, that that might be compromised in the short term. So if you absolutely have to play him and he's active, maybe you end up being okay, but get those backup plans ready. You have to roll them out on Sunday or in that first game on Monday with that Broncos Titans matchup being the very last game of week one. I hate to see this in week one, but hopefully it's something.

something that Sutton and the Broncos are able to manage, doesn't linger, and we see him back on the field sooner rather than later. Kenny Golodey misses practice again on Friday, so he too, looking like a game time decision with the Lions hosting the Bears. The silver lining here, as we said, on this morning's episode of Fantasy Football in 15. This is a 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff on Sunday, so you will know if Goladay is playing or not when you are setting your lineups, and he is a very simple guy. If he plays for the Lions, he plays for your fantasy team. Mike Pouncey, we don't typically talk about offensive linemen too much, but he is going to be out for the Chargers against the Bengals.

That is a big loss for Austin Echler, for Keenan Allen. So anyone on the Chargers, you're not benching them, but just something to keep in mind, of course, that Mike Pouncey is going to be out here. Denzel Mims did not practice either for the Jets, so unlikely that he plays on Sunday. He probably wasn't going to be much of a guy in the fantasy world anyways. We move on to limited practices.

We've got two big names here that we do have to mention Mike Evan, and Miles Sanders got in limited practices on Friday. So good news there, certainly for Evans, especially since he was looking a little bit iffy on Thursday, good that he was able to return to practice, another 1 p.m. Eastern kick between the Buccaneers and the Saints. Same goes for Miles Sanders and the Eagles heading down to Washington to take on the footballs. You will know for sure when you are setting your lineups.

And just like Kenny Galday, Evans and Sanders play for their real-life teams. They play for you. Good news now, full practices for Mike. Mike Gassicki, Preston Williams, Devante Parker, Deontay Johnson back in practice, so that's good, looking like you can probably be comfortable firing him up as usual on Monday night with the Steelers taking on the Giants. Jalen Rager, a guy who we thought was going to miss maybe a couple of weeks, gotten a full practice on Friday, so he looks good to go against Washington.

And then Jarvis Landry, I have a note in here. He did get a full practice, and he had off-season hip surgery, but he himself said that the way he is used is going to be probably determined early in the season. based on specific game plan for the opponent and game flow. So just something to keep in mind. Again, you're starting Jarvis Landry, if you have him in nine out of ten situations, but just keep that in mind that he himself is saying

that his snaps could be managed a little bit early on in the season. Again, off-season hip surgery for Jarvis Landry and the Browns taking on the Ravens. On Sunday, once we're done with injuries, which we are, every single Friday, we are going to turn our attention to the DFS world. We obviously have been covering the regular fantasy world for this entire week, as we will do every single week on the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast, Monday through Thursday. I'm going to hit on DFS for you here on a Friday.

So first thing I've got listed here, Derek, are games that we want to target. Basically, these are the games with the highest over-under. We've got Cowboys and Rams. That's not on the main slate, but that is a 51-5 over-under on Sunday night football. Then main slate games, Seahawks Falcons is 49. Buck Saints and Cardinals 49ers, those are both at 48, Raiders Panthers at 47 and a half. Do any of these games jump out at you in a bigger way than the other ones? I think Buck Saints, because of the offensive firepower on both sides,

it's really hard to see those two offenses failing to live up to expectations. I think you look at the other games, you could find cracks in the foundation, if you will. San Francisco, of course, very banged up at wide receiver, Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayyuk, less than 100% if they even play at all. So I think that leads to some questions about the San Francisco passing game in particular. The Panthers have Teddy Bridgewater taking over at quarterback. I don't know if the Raiders are built for shootouts in terms of the quality of their offense. I think maybe their defense could leak enough points to push them in that direction.

So I'm a little less confident about that game of these. And Seahawks Falcons, I think will probably live up to the billing as well. I think those are two relatively healthy offenses opening them. the season as well. So a really nice group of games to target, but those top two especially, Seahawks, Falcons, and Buck Saints are absolutely on my radar. Yeah, you just really trust those four quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Tom, Brady, Drew Brees. We don't expect them to come up short. It's going to happen from time to time, but not something you really want to bet on. So I hear you on those two games. I will throw some love at Raiders Panthers. I am going to have players on both sides of this game in

DFS lineups. I think this is going to be a high-scoring game. I think you've got one very bad defense in Carolina. A lot of interesting offensive weapons on both sides of this with Henry Ruggs and Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller, Derek Carr for the Vegas Raiders. And then on Carolina side, obviously Christian McCaffrey, Teddy Bridgewater getting his first start for this team, the wide receiver group with DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robbie Anderson. I think this is going to be a high scoring game. I think this is one that will end up playing toward that 47 and a half numbers. So I do like some players in that game. That's one that I'm going to be focused on, like that over actually the 47 and a half even though we have a lot of turnover for these two teams

especially on carolina side of the ball let's take a look at the quarterback position derrick this is one where i think i mostly want to go cheap this week i will say if i am going to pay up for a quarterback drew breeze is my guy 6800 on draft kings as the price for drew breeze for all the reasons that you already said it just feels as though that game is not going to get away from the script that we expect that both those offenses should be able to show up on Sunday. So if I'm going to go expensive, I'm going to lean toward breeze. But even understanding that, this is a position where I do want to save some money this week because there are guys that both running back and wide receiver that I'd rather

spend top dollar on. Yeah, as much as I would love to spend up for Lamar Jackson every single week, even in week one, when there's some pretty nice value plays on the board, I don't really see easy pass to get there. so I've also been kind of staying under the $6,000 mark. I'm right there with you on Breeze, though. If I were going to get up closer to 7K, 6,800 is a nice price for him.

And we talked about how much we liked that game with the 48 over under. Jimmy Garoppolo, even with those concerns about the receiving course, still has George Kittle, Beller. At 5,800, I'm in on Jimmy G because I'm out on the Cardinals defense. I think there's enough there where the floor is pretty good. I think if you're looking for someone who's a little bit lower-owned, You can go down to maybe Tyrod Taylor instead, but I think at least for cash builds, I'm okay with Jimmy Garoppolo at that price. I think the problem is it's kind of Garoppolo plus Kittal or just Garapolo alone.

And I don't always like to play a quarterback alone in a cash game lineup. So that might be the one thing that works against them. If I can't unlock the salary to get to Kittle, I might have to pivot to one of those other quarterbacks. Yeah, those games last year between San Francisco and the Cardinals were high-scoring games. They were both close. Arizona played that team really well. They almost won a game. I want to say it was like week 14 or week 15.

The Cardinals almost upset the 49ers. They played them very close. Gave them two very good games. And I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case again this Sunday. And that can't be bad news for Jimmy Garapolo, unless, of course, it's a close game because both defenses show up. But I don't think that is going to be the case again. We expect some fireworks in that NFC West really all season long.

I'm going to throw a name out there, and you're obviously going to think I'm crazy. But Mitch Trubisky is at $5,400 on draftings. This lion's defense was atrocious last year. And they made a lot of changes, right? They basically let Matt Patricia go take any former patriot. He wanted, and he made some good moves, bringing in Jamie Collins, bringing in Trey Flowers.

They used the third overall pick in the draft on Ohio State cornerback. Jeff Okuda, really think that he can be an impact player right from the get-go. But this was a defense that was starting from nothing, ranking in the bottom five in the league, in pretty much every meaningful statistic, especially through the air. They were bad in net yards per attempt. They were very bad in yards per play. Passing yards, passing touchdowns.

You can do pretty much anything you wanted through the year against this Detroit defense to season ago. You get a bottom basement price, basically, on Mitch Trubisky. I think there is some value in a Mitch, Alan Robinson, Anthony Miller stack, and just buying this Bears offense passing game in some total, because I think this line's defense, even though it got better on paper, it's still going to be a work in progress to start the season.

Right. Even if they hit kind of an upside sort of projection this season, if they improved faster than expected, what would they improve to? A league average sort of defense? I mean, that's still not a matchup you'd necessarily fear, and it probably does take them a little bit of time to get there. I hate to agree with you about anything that's pro bears,

but I have to do it in this case. It's a tournament play for sure, right? You're not going to use Mitch Trubisky in a cash game, but I think you're getting really low ownership, and you're getting cheap receivers because of the low price on Anthony Miller especially. I think Alan Robinson will be a little more popular than the rest of the bears. I think the other interesting thing here is that the running backs are affordable. Tariq Cohen might end up being a really smart play this week in a few different formats.

Now, I think the big question is, is there a third pass catcher you'd consider stacking? Sometimes when you go with those big field tournament stacks, you really have to nail it. You have to get four touchdowns from the quarterback, and you have to have to have, all three players that pull him in and one of those guys has to get two. So if you're going to put a third bear's pass catcher into a stack with Trubisky, with Robinson, and with Anthony Miller, who is it going to be? I mean, I don't want. I really wouldn't do it.

There's really no one. I don't have an answer here. I would look to the other side of the game if I was going to stack it and I would stack the game and look at Marvin Jones, who's checking in $5,500 here this week. And maybe he's going to be the number one receiver. with the injury issues for Kenny Gallaudet. That's what I would do. I mean, any other Bears pass catcher would be a total force in my estimation.

So that's who I would look at. I would look at Marvin Jones and try to stack this game as a whole and bet that it hits the over. I mean, part of the reason you have to do this, though, to win a tournament that might have a million entries. I think the millionaire maker is only $5 this week. So if you're taking a couple shots at it, you know, you're in such a huge pool.

You have to do something a bit different. It's basically a choice between Cohen as either your second running back or in the flex, which he catches enough passes where I think you could justify making him that third guy. He's probably the most interesting, most talented, or it's Jimmy Graham. And I don't like Jimmy Graham, having watched him pretty closely in Green Bay. I don't think he's got much left in the tank, but all he has to do is get a little separation, pulling a touchdown pass, and at the price, he ends up being profitable for the week.

So that's kind of the A, B, sort of decision if you want to get that third bear into a stack. All right, I've accomplished my number one goal on this episode. which is to get you to talk about the bears for like four minutes. So we're going to move on to the running back position. Christian McCaffrey, $10,000 by far the highest priced running back. The next highest price guy is Delvin Cook, and he is down at 7,900. And again, we're focused on the main slate here. So a huge gap between Christian McCaffrey and the rest of the field.

If you want to play McCaffrey, you almost have to go someone like Antonio Gibson or James Robinson. There's really no way to get McCaffrey and another, quote, regular. are running back in there this weekend. Right. And I think with running backs, the main thing to look for when you're playing DFS is projected touches, right? So you have McCaffrey as a guy who's pretty much going to lead the league in projected touches every single week. It's reflected in his price. And as you said, unlocking him comes down to finding value somewhere else that you trust. A lot of times that takes an injury to open up. I think James Robinson's probably that guy who could get a lot more work than expected at 4,000 flat. If the Jags are playing from behind, we could see a lot of

Chris Thompson though instead. So I think that makes using the Jacksonville running backs a little bit tricky. The game script could go completely sideways and we're talking about a guy we haven't seen in the NFL before so there's a ton of risk there. And the same holds true with Antonio Gibson. I'm looking at the projected ownership rates for Antonio

Gibson on roto grinders and he is the second highest projected owned running back in the entire pool. And I think that's risky even though he's cheap because we just don't know how exactly he's going to be used in this Washington an offense from the jump. I understand why people are doing it, but as I've built lineups this week, I don't feel good about what I'm getting from those bottom spots if I squeeze McCaffrey in,

whereas if I look at the running backs that I feel good about this week, I think we agree on a lot of guys. Delvin Cook at 7,900 against the Packers. Josh Jacobs is the player in that Raiders Panthers game, but I actually like the most from a pure value perspective. He's only 6,800, and Joe Mixen at 6,700. I'd rather put those two guys in as running backs and one in as the flex and build around that than pay up for McCaffrey this week, which can always backfire. Always. It can always, always, always go wrong not having Christian McCaffrey. But I think you're getting enough touches and enough value from similarly skilled players

to go around him this week and to avoid taking on a lot of that risk in the sub-5,000 range at running back. Jacobs and Mixon is my favorite duo to go with. The running back position this week, I love, Josh Jacobs in this game. I think it's going to be in all-you-can-eat sort of situation for him against a Panthers defense that we expect to be very bad this season. And when you look at Joe Mixon, I think you get a very similar thing here going up against

a Chargers defense that can get after the quarterback, but you can attack this team on the ground. And I think the Bengals win this game. Bengals are three-point underdogs at home against the Chargers. I think they end up winning this game. I think there is a non-zero chance, a very real chance. In fact, the Bengals end up being a better team than the Chargers. We know it's going to happen across the board, right? We know week one there are going to be those matchups or those spreads that look like how did we think this was the case back in week one when we

get to December. And I think this could end up being one of those. And I'm not saying the Bengals are suddenly going to be world beaters. But I do think that there is a reason to bet on this team being a whole lot better than it was last season. It of course starts with Joe Burrow. But I really like Joe Mixing in this matchup at $6,700. That's my favorite duo to build around Jacobs and Mixen. Cook is great. And really, you just got to look at it. First of all, if Antonio, Gibson really is going to be that widely owned, then it almost doesn't matter how cheap he is because he still needs to deliver. If he's going to be the second most owned guy, he still needs to have a good game, right? It needs to be a situation where you are keeping up on net, and that might not be the

case. He might not have this great game because we just don't know how he is going to be used. And if you add up Christian McCaffrey and Antonio Gibson, you're looking at $14,000. If you add up Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon, you're looking at 13.5. So to me, that's really the way to contest. textualized this. Christian McCaffery obviously deserves to be $2,100 more expensive than every other back on the board. But it's not that simple. You have to figure out how you add him in, how you mix him in with everyone else and what you put around him. And I just don't think there is enough to go around him this week to justify the cost. And of course, this is where in some future movie, they cut to Christian McCaffrey, like totaling 250 yards and four touchdowns and just having the greatest

week one that's ever happened. And hey, that would be great, though. I would take it because then there's a movie being made about us for some reason. So, you know, we wouldn't be total losers in that situation. How about the wide receiver position here, DVR? There are so many names at this position. There are so many ways that you can go here. I already mentioned the two bears who I like going with the Mitch Trubisky stack,

and I think Alan Robinson is cash game viable this week as well. You mentioned that Terry McLaurin. It could be the most frequently used wide receiver this week at 5600. I agree with you. And that's one where I am comfortable still doing it just to keep up with the Jones is because he is just going to get a huge workload against a Philadelphia defense that was very bad against the past last year and really doesn't have much reason to believe that it's going to be that better this year.

Yeah, you nailed it, right? The Philly secondary has a lot to prove McLaurin is going to lead this team in targets pretty much every week all season. And the price is probably at least $1,000 below what it's going to be in week two and beyond. I could see Terry McLauran being a $7,000 receiver sooner rather than later. So take advantage of this while you can. The level of confidence in his floor is just so much higher. We heard so much hype about Terry McLaren throughout fantasy football draft season as one of the early mid-round receivers that people felt could make that leap and be a top eight or top

10 guy at the position this season, maybe be a true wide receiver won as we look ahead to 2021. So it shouldn't surprise us that at that discounted price, especially, that he's going to be very popular this week. But popular for good reason, absolutely cash game viable. The same kind of thing we talked about with Christian McCaffrey sort of exists at the wide receiver position with Michael Thomas. You look at the price of Michael Thomas each and every week. He's 9,000 flat in week one.

Obviously, perfectly fine matchup. He's the kind of guy that gets so many targets that matchup is almost irrelevant anyway. But it comes down to being able to unlock him with enough value. And just like the McCaffrey problem, I couldn't quite get there with Michael Thomas. And I keep finding the most expensive receiver in my lineups is actually Adam Thielen at 6,700. Stefan Diggs is gone. We're not quite sure what we're going to get from Justin Jefferson as he begins his NFL career. And frankly, I like picking on the Green Bay secondary.

I think they can be had with opposing wide receiver ones. Yeah, I like Thielen a lot. Another guy who's going to have a ton of targets every single week that he steps out in the field. When I look at the most expensive guy who I could see going into my lineups this weekend, it's going to be Chris Godwin. Mike Evans did practice on Friday, so that's a good sign. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Chris Godwin be even more targeted than in a normal week, just because Evans might not be fully at 100%.

We talked about that Buck Saints game and that over under a 48. Chris Godwin checks in at 7,100, the fourth most expensive wide receiver on the main slate behind Thomas. Then you've got Julio Jones at 77, and Devante Adam. at 73. I like Godwin at 71. I can't say he will for sure be in a ton of my lineups for the reasons that you mentioned that it's hard to get some of the more expensive receivers into your lineup and there are so many other guys. I really do end up finding myself more often than not when I've been building teams throughout this week looking at that next range of guys almost, you know, it's like a parallel of what we talked about back in draft season where we wanted to spend

up on running back to use our first two picks and then really attack that wide receiver position hard in rounds three through seven or four through eight something like that. And that's where we find these same exact guys, right? Alan Robinson, 6500. DJ Chark, 6,300 in a game that Jacksonville could be chasing their eight-point dogs. Calvin Ridley, the less expensive receiver for Atlanta in that game against Seattle with an over under of 49. He's down at 6,100.

Odell Beckham, 5,900. We already talked about Terry McLaurin, 5,600. That is the prime spot, I think. that's where I'm going to be doing most of my wide receiver shopping this weekend. Yeah, I mean, I think the one player that I really like in the $6,000 range who I haven't mentioned yet is Calvin Ridley. I think both he and Julio Jones are totally viable. If you can get to Jones, good for you. He's 7,700. 6,100 for Ridley's a lot more affordable. I do expect Falcon Seahawks to be pinball, a shootout matchup as expected. And I think Ridley's inching closer to 1B status behind Julio Jones. It's not quite there yet, but he's one of the more heavily targeted.

wide receiver two is in the league. I think we have a lot of confidence with the continuity in the Atlanta passing game as well. So Kelvin Ridley, absolutely a strong play again this week. All right, let's talk tight ends here. Derek, first question I got for you, are you willing to pay the George Kittle premium $7,200? You're basically treating him like a wide receiver one. This Arizona defense absolutely atrocious against tight ends last year. Yeah, it's definitely a defense to pick on with lesser talent than Kittle. And I think given some of the possible issues at wide receiver kill. It could be even busier than usual. It's probably more of a tournament build. I think as I've tried to build out cash lineups, I couldn't get there. Same kind of problem

with Thomas. Same kind of problem with McCaffrey. A recurring theme. I couldn't quite get to the top of the player list price-wise this week, even with some nice undervalued players. I ended up to Zach Ertz at 5,800. Not far away from Mark Andrews at 6,000, but Ertz, I think, is going to be really busy because of the injuries the Eagles have been dealing with in their receiving core. if they have Jalen Rieger out there. He's banged up. I think a lot of people are chasing to Sean Jackson, but we know Zach Ertz is really the number one receiver in this Eagles offense, and you're saving $1,400 on the price compared to George Kittle. So I think Ertz is probably the ceiling for me price-wise, but there are a lot of interesting

cheap players at this position this week. Yeah, there are. There's some interesting guys in the middle range where I have been mostly doing my tight end buying Hayden Hurst at 4,300. T.J. Hick, Hawkinson at 4,200. Those are two guys I find myself coming back to a lot, and I find myself diversifying my lineup. So I'll be pairing. And I've talked a few times about the Atlanta passing game, the Detroit passing game. I'll pair Hayden Hurst with Marvin Jones. I'll pair T.J. Hawkinson with Calvin Ridley to make sure I have a piece of both of those passing games in almost any sort of lineup build that I do. Those are the two guys who I find myself getting to most frequently when I've been building a lineup. So I think they're the two I'm going to be most exposed to this weekend.

Yeah, that completely makes sense. I think if you want to get below the $4,000 mark, there's a couple interesting names there too. I think in very big field GPPs, Ian Thomas, absolutely makes sense at $3,400. Jack Doyle might be the cheap cash option I would turn to. If you're really trying to get to one of those expensive players we discussed earlier, you really want to get McCaffrey in, you have to save some money at tight end,

do you think Jack Doyle is safe enough for cash games at $3,600, given the way Philip Rivers has leaned so heavily on tight ends in the past. I think he is a guy you can go to in exactly the way that you described, where you've spent, spent, spent every single place, and you are willing to take a cheap tight end and hope that he just finds the end zone. If those are your expectations and you build a team where that is really all you need out of a tight end, four catches for 30 yards and a touchdown, I think Jack Doyle can do that for you.

Still not my preferred way to go, but I do think that if it is your preferred way to go, someone like Doyle is the guy who I would be focused on. I see some love for Chris Herndon again in various pockets of DFS, Twitter. How do you feel about Herndon, given the state of the Jets receiving core? Yeah, I mean, that's someone who at least is going to get the targets. We know that Denzel Mims is likely to miss this game. James and Crowder is going to be out there. Sounds like Prashad Perriman's going to be able to go.

But this is not, we know that the Bill's defense of last year, which is very similar to the Bill's defense of this year, is not one that you want to attack very much on the outside. That is not how you beat this Bill's defense. So I can see Herndon being active, but I sort of want to see it from the Jets before I do anything. I sort of want to see what they've got in week one, especially going on the road against a very good defense. So I'll buy Chris Herndon over the long term, but this week it's something that I want to stay away from. And you know, it's interesting is that the Jets are a perfect transition, I think, to the team I want to talk about a defense. We got to go through this

one quickly, and it is defense, so we don't need to spend too much time on it. The most, they're the least expensive defense on the board, on the main slate this week, is the Washington football team, and they're $2,000, and they've got a great front seven. I mean, they sneaky had a good front seven last year, and then they added Chase Young to the mix, a second overall pick in the draft, I think, especially going up against an Eagles team that has two starting offensive linemen who are out for the season, so you've already got replacements, you've got guys playing out of place. I think they can put together a pretty nice game against this team. I don't think they're going to shut them out. I don't think they're going to

totally just roll right over the Eagles. I don't even know if they're going to win this game at home. They're five and a half point underdogs. But I think this defense can put together a pretty nice performance. And that really does open things up for you if you're willing to go $2,000 on your defense. I really like this Washington defense this week. And I'm going to be starting them, say this as well, just be fully transparent. I'm going to be starting them in some season long leagues too. Yeah, I think what this really does is it underscores how much variance there is. in fantasy points from a team defense in any given week. And one thing to keep in mind, too, as you're filling out a lineup, as you're thinking about

season-long leagues, I don't know if home team defenses are going to have nearly the same advantage as they normally would. Limited capacity at some stadiums, empty stadiums and other cases. So I don't think that edge that you're always looking for, like streaming a defense at home or picking a DFS defense at home, is necessary. I think you can actually consider playing mediocre road defenses if you think they're in a position to get a handful of sacks because what makes or breaks a fantasy defense most weeks is whether or not they find a way to

score, a pick six, a fumble recovery for a TD. And those are so fluky and so random. Sure, teams that turn the ball over more are going to create a few more of those opportunities. But the goal in DFS with your defense is to spend as little money as possible. And when you get a group like Washington with a good front seven, that's awesome. I fully back your choice here at 2000. And if you pay up a little more and you end up getting the Vikings at 2,500, even against the Packers, even if you like the Packers' offense, Aaron Rogers takes sacks.

Aaron Rogers occasionally makes a mistake. If someone fumbles and the Vikings run it back for a TD, there you go. There's your 20-point week from your defense for 2,500, right? So spend as little as possible on your fantasy defense when you're building your DFS lineups. All right, Derek, that's going to do it for this Maiden Voyage, at least in-season Maiden Voyage, on the DFS portion of our Friday episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the athletic football show.

I'm going to let you go. The show is not over, but we are going to say goodbye to DVR for now. DVR, enjoy the games, have a great weekend. Yeah, you too. All right, football season is upon us and our partners at Manscape are here to make sure you don't gamble on shaving the same way.

You like to gamble on football with all those DFS lineups. The lawnmower 3.0 is the best hygiene tool for the modern man because of the ceramic blade and skin safe technology, your nicks and snags will be reduced. The lawnmower 3.0 is also waterproof and has an LED light on it. Get 20% off in free shipping with the code Vathletic 20 at Manscape.com.

That's 20% off with free shipping at Manscape.com using the code the athletic 20. Talking about erectile dysfunction, it's not easy, but with Roman, it makes it a whole lot easier to talk about with a real healthcare professional who can provide and prescribe real medication. It's simple, it is safe, and it is totally. discreet. With Roman, you can get a free online evaluation and ongoing care for ED, all from the comfort and privacy of your home. A health care professional will work with you to find the best treatment plan, and if medication is appropriate, Roman will ship it to you with free two-day

shipping. Getting started is simple. Just go to getroman.com slash fantasy football and complete an online visit. This whole process is straightforward, simple, and discreet. Go to gethroman.com slash fantasy football today. If approved, you'll get $15 off your first order of ED treatment. That's get roman.com slash fantasy football, get roman.com slash fantasy football. All right, we move on now to part two of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show here for week one. And that means we're talking gambling.

And that means we welcome on Vic Taver, one of our Vegas Raiders, beatwriters. And of course, one of the gambling people here at the athletic. you doing today. Good, man. How you doing? I am excited, man. One fun game already in the books and very excited for this weekend that we've got ahead of us.

You and I are going to be going over our favorite picks of the week every single week here on our Friday episode. So what we're going to do is we're both going to give five picks that we like. We'll mention every game, but we're not going to waste any time on games that neither of us really have any interest in betting. We'll also throw an upset pick out there and talk a little survivor to wrap things up. So we'll go through each game right at the top.

We'll go through them in chronological order. So that means we start with the 1 p.m. Eastern kickoffs on Sunday. And the first game that we've got listed here is a game that you want to get behind. Patriots minus six and a half at home against the dolphins. We've got an over under of 42 on this game. You like the Miami Dolphins. I do.

I think they always play the Patriots tough. I think it's a good spot for them. Obviously, the Patriots have a lot of change this year. You know, Tom Brady not being there. Cam Newton, who knows, he's going to look at week one. So I think it's a good spot for the dolphins. I'm sure they're fired up to have a good start. I think it definitely improved in the off season.

So I think the number was kind of a sneaking line. It was, what, five and a half, now six and a half. So I think it's some good value there. You can kind of, you know, still lose the game, but cover the spread pretty easily. Yeah, this is, like you said, it's a team that historically has given the Patriots some trouble. And all you've got to do for evidence of that is go back,

to the last game that the Dolphins played in week 17 of last year, upsetting the Patriots and shaking up the entire AFC playoff complexion, and that had maybe some effect on what went down on the AFC side of the bracket. A lot of turnover, of course, for this Patriots team. Cam Newton making his Patriots debut. I like the Dolphins here. I am in a pool that I am going to reference quite a bit on this show, maybe ultimately to the annoyance of some people.

If that's true, just shoot me a note. But just to give you a little bit of a reference, pool will pick every single game against the spread every single week. I am picking the dolphins in that pool. I am not going to be betting the dolphins, however, but I do think six and a half just feels like a little bit too big of a number for a Patriots team whose offense I still don't really trust. And I want to see on the field before I trust them to win a game against almost anyone by more than a touchdown. Next up on the list is the Baltimore Ravens against the Cleveland Browns Ravens, laying seven and a half. here this game in Baltimore. Now, this is a pick that I am going to make.

It is my least confident of the five picks that I'm going to recommend. So full disclosure there. I just feel like this number is a little bit too big for a Cleveland team that has the offensive weapons that it does. I mentioned on our show last week that I really believe that the 2020 Browns can have the sort of year offensively that we thought the 2019 Browns were going to have, bringing in Kevin Stefansky as the replacement for Freddie Kitchens, adding Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills on the.

line. I think those three pieces are really going to let Baker Mayfield and the skill players flourish for this Cleveland team. I think the Ravens win this game. I think they can win it by a touchdown, but all I need the Browns to do is lose it by a touchdown or less. And I just think that that's a big number for a team that has the sort of offense that Cleveland does. And whenever you're getting up above a touchdown, back door is always open to. And that's something that I think the Browns could step through if they need it. I'm not sure they're going to need it. I think this ends up being a close game. We have an over under a 48. So also suggests that the odds makers are believing both these teams are going to be able to put some points on the board.

You've got an implied team total of 27.75 for Baltimore, 20.25 for Cleveland. I think that's a number that Cleveland can get to. So they can still get victimized by Lamar Jackson, this running game and through the air, and still stay within seven and a half points. What's your pick on this one? Obviously, you're not going to have it as one of your top five, but what's your side that you're feeling in this game? I'm with you on the Browns for the season. I like everything you said about the Browns for the season,

but this game, I can run defense does not really have me convinced. I think the Ravens can dictate the tempo of the game, and I think they can win by more than the A's. So I would go the other way and go with their Ravens this week. All right. So there's one where we've got a little bit of a difference of opinion, and sneak peek a little later.

We have some differences of opinion where we both feel comfortable enough about our side to have that among our top five plays. The next game, three for three. Our first three games listed are games where one of us is feeling a pick enough to make it one of our top five. This is the Buffalo Bills at home against the New York Jets. Laying six and a half, 39 and a half is the over and under. It is once again me and I am backing the bills.

I think this Jets team has a real chance to be very, very bad. Once again, I just think that this offense has almost nothing it can lean on. Le Vion Bell, I think is still a better player than he gets credit for after what happened with him last season. but I don't think he's at the heights that he once was in Pittsburgh. The passing game, they're going to be almost certainly without Denzel Mims dealing with injuries to both hamstrings. Prashad Paraman should suit up for the Jets, but he dealt with a knee injury all summer that could have him at less than 100%.

So you're looking at Sam Darnold, Jameson, Croutter, Chris Herndon, going up against what could be the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that you can't really attack outside with all the speed and athleticism that it has defensively. outside. And when you flip it over, Jets defense was, you know, not terrible, but also not very good last year. And they lost one of their best players in this offseason in Jamal Adams. So I think the Bills offense can get things going here as well.

This feels like a game to me where the Bills are just able to keep the Jets at arm's length all game. I think the way the bills are built, they're not going to run away and hide from very many teams. They're not a team that's going to, you know, get up 21-0 or 24-0. That's just not really what they do offensively. but I think they can snuff out the Jets on defense and do plenty on offense with the addition of Stefan Diggs and Zach Moss to keep this as a pretty comfortable two-score game for a majority of it. I like the bills. I'm comfortable giving up the six and a half.

I think they win this one relatively easily. I'm with you. I like the bills, though. I'm a little, I'll always say, I think both Adam Gays and Greg Williams are probably sneaky good. They're a little better than the perception is. They're both, they've always won some games you thought they had no chance to. win. Adam Gase is a better record than I think most of the people think he has career-wise. So I think those guys are sneaky. They're not as bad as you think they are.

So I'm a little skeptical, but still, I'm with you. The bills should win that game if they are what they think they are this year. All right. They should cover. Sorry. Okay. Yep. Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. Cover. You don't think they're going to go into Buffalo and win that. These teams played each other week one last year, too, didn't they? And the bills pulled out a 17-16 win. So running it back a little bit here. I hope it's more than 1716, of course, for my sake. Next game up is one where neither of us has a pick. It is the Raiders minus three at the Panthers over or under of 47 and a half.

I actually like the total quite a bit. I do like the over here. I think these are a couple of teams that have some nice pieces on offense. We expect that Carolina defense to be very bad this season. So I do like the over. Neither of us is going to be backing aside as one of our top five picks. But Vic, this is going to happen every week. I can't let a Raiders game pass without getting a word on it from one of our Raiders beatwriters.

what are you looking for in this game? It's funny because we have the same take. I think the over is the play. I think the Raiders should be able to score points pretty easily. And their defense, I'm just not sure where they're at yet. I think they have a lot of new pieces. But I think Teddy Bridgewater should be able to also score some points. I think the Raiders should win this game.

I think they should cover the spread. But I think the over probably is a better play than the actual side. Yeah, over definitely one of my favorite plays of the week here. I think that we're going to see these two teams be able to get up and down the field. We're getting up and down this sheet. Next two games, I'll give you a little hint here. We're going to talk about both of these games a little bit later, but neither of us is backing aside.

Seahawks minus two and a half at Atlanta. That's gotten over under of 49. The second highest or third highest, no, no, second highest. That's right. Second highest over under on the board. The only one that's higher is the Sunday night game between Dallas and the Rams. Eagles minus five and a half at the Washington football team. That's gotten over under a 42.

So like I said, neither of us backing aside just yet, but we're going to get back to both of those games a little bit later in the show. Next game, also something that neither of us is touching, and I really want no piece of this game. Lions minus three, they are hosting the Chicago Bears. 42 and a half is the over-under. Lions most likely going to be playing without Kenny Goliday. He is listed as doubtful with the hamstring injury that he suffered in practice this week. D'Andre Swift does sound like he's going to be able to make his NFL debut.

He's been dealing with an injury for the last couple of weeks. of training camp bears pretty much at full strength but this is a pretty easy stay away for me was this something that factored into your decision or into your top five mix at all Vic or did you just make the pick for your column and move on sometimes you got to tip your cap to the to the point make to the guys that's the lines I think that's a good line I think it's it's hard to say you know really find value on either side of that game so I think you make a pick because you have to but like you say you kind of move on and go on to other games you actually have some interest in some juice yeah I've got in that pool, I've got the Bears as my pick, but not feeling super great about it.

Definitely not going to be putting any of my wallet behind Mitch Trubisky going on the road against the Lions this weekend. Interested to see what that Lions defense ends up doing. Terrible defense last year, a lot of changes, Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins, third pick, Jeff Okuda. So they made a lot of change. That defense might be a little bit better than we expect it to be. Colts minus eight at home.

No, they are at the Jacksonville Jaguars. We've gotten over under of 45 here. This was an easy stay away for me, Vic. I think the Colts are clearly the better team, but with a new quarterback, I don't want to have them laying eight points on the road without seeing what they've got to offer here. Any take on Jacksonville and Indy?

Yeah, the Jags are in full tank mode, so obviously you want to go against that team as much as you can. But you said it's tough. Week 1, new quarterback on the road. Who knows? But I think it definitely, if you're going to lean the one away, I would definitely lean towards the Colts.

Last game in that first slate, 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff, another NFC North Battle. Minnesota Vikings minus two and a half against the Packers. I'm a little surprised this is down at two and a half. I would think this would be a pretty easy one for the odds makers just to install at your basic three. And I would say the same thing if it were reversed and Green Bay was playing at home. I would expect Green Bay to be favored by three. That's the standard home field number where we would think that it would be a pick-em spread. on a neutral field. It'll be interesting to see how the odds makers end up playing around with lines

after we get a few weeks of data with what it's like to play without any fans in the stadium, although I guess one game in the books did have some fans in the stadium in Kansas City. But I think some of those things that we've just come to know that we don't even think about, just totally second nature when we're talking about gambling. Three points added to the line for being the home team. It'll be interesting to see if the odds makers end up playing around with that. But that's our last game in the 1 p.m. Eastern Slate. And again, both of us staying away.

Vikings minus two and a half hosting the Green Bay Packers. 45 is the over under on that one. Let's get to the late slate games that kick off somewhere in that 405 to 425 Eastern Range on Sunday. This is one that I hinted at before. We are both comfortable enough to pick a side in Chargers bangles, but we are picking different sides. The Chargers are field goal favorites in Cincinnati in over under of 42. Vic, you are on the Chargers. Let's hear why.

Yeah, I think that it looks like the United team, I think, obviously Philip Rivers is gone. I think Anthony Lynn has full control of that team. I think they're in a good spot. I think when it's a rookie quarterback, I think the defense is pretty good. They lost Derwin James, but still enough talent, especially in that front line,

to kind of make Joe's day kind of tougher than you probably thinks it's going to be. So I like the Chargers are in a good spot to open up the season. I want to know. Yeah, I like the Bengals. I actually like the Bengals to win this game at home. And again, we're going to keep saying at home on the road.

And none of us is quite sure what that means this season. And we're going to learn, I think, relatively quickly what it does mean. But I just think these teams are closer on paper than this line would suggest. Again, we have to assume that the odds makers are still doing their typical three-point deal here. So, you know, swinging this as a three-point favorite for a Chargers team on the road suggests that they think this would be a nine-point spread if this game were in Los Angeles. And I just don't buy that. I just don't think there's that big of a gap between these two teams. I think that the Bengals got a whole lot better by adding Joe Burrow.

Remember last year, their first overall pick, Jonah Williams, 10th, 11th pick overall, somewhere right in there. Didn't play a snap for this team. And we talked about the offensive line woes that this team had last season. A guy like Jonah Williams, even if he's not a year in, year out, all pro, can really have a big downstream effect. You add him, it's not just adding him. It's the effect that he has on the rest of that line. So I think there are some significant offensive improvements. AJ Green, I can't vouch for his health all season, but we know he's healthy right now.

So you're going to get the best version of Cincinnati's offense, potentially, right here in this first game. I do like them at home. Mike Pouncy out for the Chargers. That's a big loss for them up front, possibly. Gino Atkins is going to be sitting this one out for the Bengals, too, almost a one-for-one trade. But I think something that Bengals would maybe take. We'll give up Atkins if you have to give up Pouncy, not as easy. to replace the center as it is, I think, someone up front on the defensive line,

even someone who is as effective as Gino Adkins. I just worry about the change for this offense. And I don't mean that to sound as a knock on Tyra Taylor, a guy who I think never got the fair shake that he deserved, who always played well for the Buffalo Bills when he was the starter there. And I think if he was in a different situation, could be a very successful starting quarterback. I just look at the two primary guys in this offense,

Austin Echler and Keenan Allen, and think that they were perfect fit stylistically with the way Philip Rivers plays the quarterback position. I would like it a lot better if Mike Williams were out there at 100%. Right now we're not sure if he's going to be out there. We are sure that if he is, he's going to be less than 100%. With the way Tyrod throws the deep ball, I do think Mike Williams is a really nice weapon in this offense. I think we could see his best season yet because of the connection that could be there between Tyrod and Mike Williams. But I think you're going to lose some efficiency and some effectiveness out of Austin Echler and Keenan Allen.

and that's a bad recipe for this Chargers offense. So put me on the Bengals. This will be our first one. We'll keep track of these, Vic. We'll keep track of these ones where we go head to head. We're going to keep track of everything. We're going to be transparent with you. But these ones especially where we go head to head.

Our first head-to-head matchup of the season, you like the Chargers minus three in Cincinnati. I like the Cincinnati Bengals. Our next game, the San Francisco 49ers, minus seven at home against the Arizona Cardinals. These were two very close games last year. late in the season. It was like week 14 or 15. Arizona nearly upset San Francisco and would have swung the division if they had. That great week 17 game between San Francisco and Seattle wouldn't have carried the weight that it did because Seattle already would have had the NFC West locked up at that point. San Francisco won both those games, won the NFC West and we know what happened from there in the playoffs. But I think the Cardinals are able to play this one close again. I like the Cardinals here. This is going to be one of my five picks that you already know. We've only talked about this stuff over a couple of shows. you already know how strongly behind this Arizona Cardinals' offense I am this season.

I really think that they can take the next step. And it's similar to the way I felt about the Baltimore-Cleveland game. I think there is enough here on offense that Arizona can keep this game within a touchdown. I'm not picking them to win this game. I'm picking San Francisco to win it. But I think Arizona's offense has enough firepower. They know this team. There's a lot of continuity on both sides in this game.

So they know this defense. They attacked it pretty successfully two times last year. and I think they can do it a third time to kick off the 2020 season. You're not making it one of your five plays, but where are you in this game? I'm signed with the Niners. I think I'm not as high on the Cardinals offense as you are, and I think the defense, though, concerns me more in this game. I think the Niners have some injuries,

but still enough firepower offensively to score more points than the Cardinals can keep up with. I think for me, my big fantasy sleeper was Jerich McKinnon. I think he'll have a big role in this game. I think he'll be a weapon that people realize was, you know, Shanahan won him badly for a reason last year. Now he's fully healthy. So I think there's too many points for the Cardinals to keep up. I'm taking the Niners and the Seven. Yeah, the Jerich McKinnon was a real aggressive target for San Francisco when Minnesota let him go.

And then the injury, he has yet to play a game for the San Francisco team. So it'll be interesting to see how they get him involved alongside Rahim Mostert and Tevin Coleman. Debo Samuel almost certainly going to be out, probably a good thing in the long term for the 49ers. No reason to rush him back from that Jones fracture. Brandon Ayuk, the rookie, also could be missing this game. I think it's going to be a whole lot of George Kittle for that San Francisco passing game. That's true every week, but with those injuries and the way Arizona didn't really defend tight ends all that effectively last season, got to think George Kittle could see himself a double-digit target game in this one.

Next one is where we find a little bit of agreement here, Vic, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are three and a half point favorites at home against Tampa. We've gotten over under of 48. Both of us are on the New Orleans Saints. And I'm just going to let you know this, Vic. I did a version of this show last year. And over 16 games, I want to say I backed the Saints like 11 times. So get ready for a lot of Saints picks from me.

Why are you liking the Saints this week? For me, it's more of an anti-Bucks play. I think, you know, we talked a lot about continuity this year and how, you know, sometimes made a lot of moves. And I think definitely teams who didn't are better off at the start of the season. The Saints definitely have a lot of guys back from last year, whereas the Bucks have a new quarterback, you know, a lot of new system on offense. I think that they'll be good.

I'm not sure how good, but I'm not sure they'll be as sharp week one as it will be later on. So I think the Saints pass rush will be a major factor in this game. So I like the Saints. I think the Saints, actually, I think it might have been pretty easily. So I think by doing those bonus. reversed teasers and I could lay like 10. I'd probably lay the 10. You'll please the Saints up to nine and a half or something?

I'll please the Saints to nine and a half. Yeah, I think it's a great spot for me. I think, you know, at home, I think Drew Breeze, obviously, he's the younger quarterback. He's the younger guy that just match up. How often does that happen? Right, so that's kind of cool. But yeah, for me, it was kind of a, I hate to say, easy pick. But I think that's a pretty nice way for us to start off on the same page this year.

Yeah, probably my most confident play of the week here. I really like the Saints. Really, I think they're the best team in the NFC top to bottom. And I think there's a strong argument. I'm not going to say that they're better than the Chiefs right now. But that's my Super Bowl. I think the Saints end up winning it. I picked them last week on our future show to be the Super Bowl champion.

I just think this is a super strong roster top to bottom. And should be mentioned, Mike Evans, listed as doubtful for the Buccaneers in this game. So they could be without one of their very best weapons on the offensive side. That's going to make it even harder to keep up with. with Drew Brees and company. I like The Saints in this. Wouldn't expect the number to move very much either. Maybe it bumps up to four.

Wide receivers don't typically move the number more than half a point at most. And quite often they don't move the number at all. So even if it ends up moving up to four, I would feel very comfortable laying the four and backing the New Orleans Saints. And what should be a very fun game could be a nice race in the NFC South. And a couple of first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks

who first faced each other probably back in a Purdue, Michigan game. in the late 90s getting to go at it once again here to kick off the 2020 season. Let's move on to Sunday night football. We've got a great one on tap. Dallas Cowboys minus 3 at the Los Angeles Rams highest over under on the board, 51 and a half. You, Vic, are backing the Cowboys. I am staying away from this game. Why do you like Dallas?

Kind of like you and the Saints, I think the Cowboys are probably better. People think they are definitely one of the top teams in the league. I think Dak Prescott's going to have a big year. The offensive is set up for him this year. Mike McCarthy's there, definitely knows how to handle those kind of quarterbacks. And the Rams, I mean, are they good? I'm not sure the Rams are good. I mean, they can make all these changes in the last couple of years,

and I'm not sure what they are. So I think based on that, I've got to take the points, and I'm sorry, lay the points and go up the Cowboys to start off the year on the right foot. Yeah, I think Dallas is definitely the better team. I feel pretty comfortable saying that. It is the unknown surrounding the Rams that makes me a little bit wary of going in Dallas's direction, at least as one of my five picks. I will be backing the Cowboys where I am picking every single game.

But I'm not comfortable enough to make it one of my five. Obviously, there's a lot of defensive firepower in L.A. Aaron Donald had just signed Jalen Ramsey to the big extension. So they're the sort of team that can maybe make things uncomfortable for Dak Prescott, but I really don't want to bet against that offense. That Dallas offense is just so explosive. We've got playmakers at quite literally every single position on the field, all the way down to Blake Jarwin, who if he was in another spot and was going to get himself 80 or 90 targets this season we could be talking about as one of the seven or eight most productive tight ends in the league.

So they're just playmakers all over the field for Dallas. I'm really excited to see what that offense looks like in full bloom on Sunday night. But I myself will be staying away. In fact, I've already highlighted all five of my picks. You have one more, and we find it on Monday night in the first of two Monday night games. Steelers heading to New York to take on the Giants. The Steelers are laying six here. We've got an over under of 46 and a half.

And you, once again, you're taking the points. You're back in the home team in New York. Why is it the Giants rounding out your top five picks of the week? I like their offense. Obviously, they got Sequin Barclay. I'm not as high on the quarterback as others are, but I think he's fine. I think otherwise, you know, the tight end increment is a great player. I think Stone Shepherd is another guy who had a fancy sleeper.

So I think they had a lot of firepower on offense. And also, like, with Pittsburgh, it's kind of like back with King. Jim Newton and Ben Rossesburger, we're not really sure where he's at. I mean, I know he's in great shape, but who knows how good he is still? So I think that's a question mark off the wait and see. So based on all that, I'll take the points and enjoy the ride with the Giants' offense. Yeah, I think six is a fair number here. If Ben is basically back to being what he was pre-elbo injury, I do worry from the Giants'

perspective about how they would possibly slow down Pittsburgh's offense. I mean, there's a very real chance that the Giants are the worst defense in the league, or at least one of the three worst defenses in the league. This could be a team that struggles really on all three levels defensively. No-name linebacker core. Obviously, they had to cut DeAndre Baker for off-the-field reasons. This could be a very bad defense. And if Pittsburgh's able to protect Robesberger,

and even if that arm is 85 or 90 percent of what it was pre-entry, I think it could get ugly from a defensive standpoint for the Giants. I don't feel comfortable laying the six, but that's why I also don't feel comfortable taking the same. a pretty easy stay away from me in that first game on Monday night. We're both staying away from the Monday night night cap. That is Titans at Broncos, the Titans laying two and a half. This is a Broncos team I was excited about Vic as recently as 10 days ago.

But then you have the Von Miller injury. You've got the Bradley Chub injury. Now we've got Cortland Sutton dealing with an AC joint sprain, probably going to miss this game. I mean, already things are falling apart around this Denver team. So I want to see them on the field before I really feel them out from a betting perspective. I want to be excited about them,

and I want to believe in the offense and Drew Locke and everything here, but just three huge injuries to suffer in the, I mean, what, two weeks leading up to week one, a brutal run of luck here for the Denver Broncos. So let's wrap things up here, at least wrap up part one. And don't worry, parts two and three are pretty short, but our picks of the week,

your five, dolphins, chargers, saints, cowboys, giants, my five, Browns, bills, bangles, Cardinals and Saints that are going head to head in one, and we are on board with one another in one. Let's throw out some upset picks. We're talking upset to win outright, right? That's what we're saying here. Upset these teams are going to win outright. Forget about just, you know, beating the spread.

These are teams that are dogs that we think are going to win, correct? Yeah, this is to win the game. So we're not messing around. Not messing around. Not at all. Not at all. All right, your upset pick. We hinted at earlier.

Which one do you got? I'm going with the Falcons at home. I think the Seahawks usually start off the season kind of slow, not really, they're more like a long-term team. They're always going to go to the playoffs and being the number of hunt. So I'm not sure they're too worried about week one.

I think it's the health issue of C-Tag early all year long. Who knows what his status is going to be the rest of the year. So might as well cash in on that and ride that while you have that chance. So I like to have enough firepower to put enough points on the Cilocks where they're a nice home win. I'm not sold on them long-term this season,

but I think this is a good spot for him in week one. All right. So the Falcons, one of our upset picks, and that should be a fun game that's got a very high over-under on it. I think we expect that game to be able to go back and forth in both offenses to have their way with the opposing defense. I'm going to go with the Washington footballs here, Vic,

five and a half point dogs at home against the Eagles. They were right there in my top five. It was between them and the Browns for that fifth pick, and frankly, I just wanted to be able to talk about both of them. I could see myself still backing Washington, catching the five and a half at home. This was a sneaky good front seven last year, and they bring back everyone.

I mean, this is a team that has invested, a lot of draft capital in the defensive line. And we saw it starting to come to fruition last year with Jonathan Allen, De Ron Payne, and Montez Sweat. And then what do they do this year? They just use the second overall pick on Chase Young, maybe the best player period, regardless of position. In all of college football last year,

you look at what they've got in the linebacker court, you feel pretty good about it, especially with the pressure that you expect that front four to be able to generate without a blitz. I like this defense. I think this is a dangerous defense, especially looking at a Philadelphia team and is already down two offensive linemen

for the entire year, Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard. So they're playing replacements to begin with. They're playing some guys out of place where they didn't expect them to be as recently as a couple of weeks ago. I think they can make life tough on Carson Wentz and the offense. And I think Dwayne Haskins and crew

can do enough offensively to get Washington the upset victory. So mark me down for the Washington football team pulling off an upset and beating the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Lastly, we wrap it up with our favorite Survivor picks. I'm in a couple of Survivor pools, so I'll keep you updated. I'll tell you what I'm picking and where I am, if I'm still alive, what my status is. Are you in any Survivor pools this year, Vic? You know, I'm not. I just realized that five minutes ago that I'm not. So that's got something I got a fix.

Hey, you still got time. Yeah, those are fun. Those are fun. So I got to find one. But who do you got? I got the bills. There actually aren't very many great plays, I feel. like this week. There aren't any very many obvious plays. And the bills are going to be, I think, probably the most popular pick, but I just don't see how they lose this game at home to a Jets team that is, I think struggling to find itself and struggling to find what it is. So I think the bills, as I said earlier, one of my picks, why I like them as one of my picks to cover the six and a half? I think there are a couple other options. You can go with the 49ers, certainly, the

Ravens, one of the biggest favorites of the week. I actually don't like the Colts. They're actually the biggest favorite left on the board after Kansas City took care of business against Houston on Thursday night. That's one I'd be staying away from. I just want to see that offense before I fully trust it and buy into wit. I could talk myself potentially into the 49ers, but I just feel like the bills are the way to go. No reason to get cute in week one. Let's play it safe. Let's go Buffalo. Yeah, we're exactly on the same page. I was going back and forth from the bills and the Colts because I don't think I'll be on the Colts much this year, but I am this week. So my big a time

to take advantage of that. But I agree with you. The bills, I mean, the defense should be a top, you know, top three defense. You shouldn't lose to the jets. I mean, so if they do, then we're both out of luck. But I think that's a good spot. And I think we're on the same page as far as the survivor pool this week. Yeah, I would be very much out of luck.

There is no fun losing a survivor pool in week one, just like flushing whatever the entry fee is right down the toilet. I've got one pool where I have two entries, so I probably won't put the bills on both of them just in case. But I've had some week one survivor losses. we'll just say thank God for rebis. And that is where we are going to end things here for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. If you are listening to us on Spotify, iTunes, any of those other providers, you're not getting athletic subscriber.

Now is the time to do it. Go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod and you can get yourself a subscription to the athletic for just $1 a month. What do you waiting for? NFL season underway, NBA in the height of its playoffs, Major League Baseball, a professional. approaching the playoffs. We've got it all covered for you from top to bottom here at the athletic. For Derek Van Riper and Vic Tafer, I am Michael Beller. We will be back with you next week. Until then, thanks for listening and enjoy all the NFL action this weekend. This was the Athletic Football Show.