The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 1 Grabbag: Games of the Week, Matchups of the Week, Tice's Touts, and more

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

Week 1 has arrived! What better way to celebrate than with Robert Mays and Nate Tice breaking down the biggest games the coming weekend has to offer. The guys dig into Bills-Jets, Bengals-Browns and Dolphins-Chargers, and highlight what they're looking for in the Eagles offense/Patriots defense and 49ers offense/Steelers defense showdowns. Plus, Nate makes some picks in Tice's Touts, and Dianna Russini joins Robert to discuss the latest contract news. Football is back!Follow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Nate on X: @Nate_TiceFollow Dianna on X: @DMRussiniSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/MAYS and get on your way to being your best self.This episode is sponsored by Sleep Number®: Save $400 on the New Sleep Number® c4 smart bed. Plus, special financing for a limited time. Only at Sleep Number® stores or sleepnumber.com. Sleep Number. The Official Sleep and Wellness Partner of the National Football League. See store for details.Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/mays. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. That's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing it very, very well. We are four hours?

About three hours of change. Four hours. Yeah. Game one of the NFL season, my wife went, so this is like real, right? That's how she said to me this morning. Because you approach the preseason with the same fervor as one might approach the start of the regular season. I assume that she was a little bit confused.

Week zero of college football, week one of college football. That was very hard to explain to my wife that there's two week ones essentially in college football. But I was like, no, this is for real. It's like Chiefs Alliance. She's like starters, like starters. Because she had to say like she was watch me in preseason kind of like check. Like, why are you watching this?

I'm like, well, they have like some rookie. I'm trying to watch right here. But she's like, oh, didn't you say they don't play the starters in the preseason? I'm like, yeah. Sometimes they do. Okay. No, it's fine. It's fine.

Just love you watch this. You're a better man than me with all that preseason football that you're digging into. My wife today asked me, do you want to go look at a couch tonight? And I was like, I don't think so. Thursday nights are now off limits, baby, unfortunately, because we are back. This is our week one grab bag is what we are calling the Thursday into Friday podcast this year. Because we don't want it to just be a straight preview. We're going to talk about some bigger picture trends in the NFL, some offenses

and defenses that we like, obviously, as we get into the season, that hasn't happened yet. So we're not going to do that today. But it's going to be kind of a smattering of different topics that we're going to dig into every single week. Some looking forward, some looking back. So that's what we're calling this this year. This is the Thursday grab bag on the athletic football show. This is edition one, slightly different for a couple different reasons.

One, we're going to do a little bit more preview in today because it's week one. And we're going to look forward to a lot of these games. A lot of curiosities will dig into about five or so games here. in a couple different ways. Also a difference. Diana Rusini is going to be joining us a little bit later in the show to chat through some of the big news throughout the NFL this week. Part of the reason Diana is on today is because next week, me and Diana are starting

a YouTube show that will run on Tuesdays. So because we didn't have that before week one, we decided to have Diana on, have a little newsworthy conversation. But starting next week, me and Diana will be coming your guys' way every Tuesday afternoon on the athletic football show YouTube channel. But now it's time to get into this. We are here. It is week one.

There is so much to chew on. So many good games already that we're going to dig into today. But just from a big picture perspective, this year is just filled with so many elite teams, especially concentrated in the AFC. And that's reflected in the week one schedule that we're looking at and some of the matchups that we're looking at. The number of young players, young players, young, quarterbacks that can kind of define this season, all these guys who are 27, 28 years old,

with Brady now gone, Rogers getting closer to 40. This group feels like they've taken control of the NFL. And I think that the week one slate and the 2023 season in general, to me, is sort of an expression of that. Yeah, it's, well, not only just concentrated in one conference, it seems to be concentrated into one time zone, the Eastern time zone, especially, no offense to the defending Super Bowl champions. But the, no, seriously, not just quarterbacks in the young towns.

It feels like there's just stars getting popping out every position now. Of course, the receiver kind of revolution going on or continued evolution going on. But just offensive line town, how many guys that we say last year, it's like, wow, this guy broke out, this guy broke out, defense a tackle, offense a tackle, even safety spots. It's just, we're kind of like it just feels like just, okay, this is a new chapter of the NFL. And, of course, the quarterbacks are the ones going to lead the way. But I feel like their characterization, more athletic, more speed than we've ever seen before at the position, they kind of are a distilled version of kind of the evolution going on to every position it feels like. So I think, and I think all of them are great torchbearers for the NFL and for football, which I think is so awesome.

So many guys that are easy to cheer for. It's awesome. We are doing our awards prediction show, and that's just how I ended the pod. It was like, guys, this is going to be a sweet season. This is going to be really cool. there's a lot of fun teams, a lot of good units, and a lot of good players. Can't ask for more than that. I don't know if we're going to get through it a week on the schedule without two marquee type games.

I'd have to actually look at it, but just by the math alone and the odds, it feels like we're going to get at least one or two of these every single week. And we have our share heading into week one. So let's do this. Our three games of the week that we wanted to dig into, let's start with the team I picked to win the Super Bowl. And the guy I picked to win the MVP this year, Joe Burrow and the same. Cincinnati Bengals going up against a Cleveland Browns team that should be different. I am also high on. So this is a fantastic matchup, in my opinion, on both sides of the ball and potentially

a telling matchup on both sides of the ball. So let's start with when the Bengals have the ball. When the Bengals are on offense, playing against the Brown's defense, what are the, what's the number one thing that you're going to be zeroing in on this week? How does Jim Schwartz, every question, every defense coordinator has to answer this question when they play the Bengals. How do you contain their weapons? How do you contain the best receiver room in the country in the league with one of the best

quarterbacks in the league who can just put it on what has great chemistry with these guys, put it on the money over and over and over. Everyone has to figure out what their formula is against this Bengals team because especially what they did last year. So really, how much is Jim Schwartz lean into what he has done before? He is a single high coverage, like, officiantado. Even in the preseason, he showed that 80% of the snobes. snaps that the Browns play this preseason was single high. And why that is important is,

that means isolated coverage on the outside over and over and over again. And that's where the Bengals playmakers are, T. Higgins and Jamar Chase. So how much, how they answer that, how they, does he tweak his formula or does he just stick to what his DNA is? That is what I'm going to be focusing on. And I think it's going to be an interesting answer that we'll find out, or at least an indication of an answer that we'll find out in this game. Week one always provides such a fascinating mirror, like a, potentially a fun house mirror, always a mirror for every single one of these teams. The Browns under Joe Woods were a quarters-based defense who were not afraid to live in light

boxes and kind of follow that defensive trend that we've seen around the league. Their version is the Niners Jets version, but they're not playing with a lot of single high looks and crowding the box. It burned them. I mean, that's why they made the change partially. But under Jim Schwartz, they're not going to live like that. It's going to be more man. It's going to be more single high.

But teams didn't do that against the Bengals last year. So that mirror that we're holding. up to the Browns defense is, if you're going to play with a lot of single high coverages and a lot of man coverage against the Bengals, then you're going to do it against everybody. So we have an answer about what they want to be. If you're not going to do that and you're going to drift away from what Jim Schwartz's identity has been, that is an indication potentially moving forward that this Brown's defense is going to be more flexible than we might anticipate. And that's by week one is awesome because we're going to get an answer on that.

And I think the Bengals are such an interesting way to kind of pull that answer out and get some information about what this Jim Schwartz led defense is going to look like. We're excited about the additions they made like up front and they actually have better answers for what the Bengals adjusted to with their more efficient run game. They added some more beef on the interior and free agency and actually even a little bit in the draft, but they also had juice to help out Miles Garrett. it. So that's interesting to me too, is Jim, Jim Schwartz has a little bit of blitzing in his DNA as well. Does he tweak that dial a little bit? Does he lean into blitzing a little bit to heat up?

The Bengals have new running backs and pass protection. That's where Samadji P. Ryan, your favorite player in the league. But he was very, very valuable. Whatever he is as a running back as a past protector on passing down. He is a past catcher. He is a very useful running back. But that was his strength. And that was a weapon for this Bengals team, just how they played. So what he leans into, what he wants to dial into, what he wants to attack, does he just lean into what he's done before? It's going to be very, very interesting. It's one of the matchups I can't wait to see. And the other little tweak, I want to see it with Jim Schwartz. I don't even a tweak.

He will spot drop his zone coverages. And that's old school, meaning guys truly go to a zone. There's not a lot of match rules. He does a little bit of everything. But he is an old school coach in that way that he will sprinkle that in. The Bengals love these back shoulder throws when they get single high with their big strong receivers. So spot drop you can maybe get a guy underneath that if they're fast enough. So I'm just curious.

That's just something I'm going to be looking forward to if that little change up comes into play during this game. And with match zone, it can turn into man in a way that those back shoulder throws are a little bit more effective than they might be against a traditional spot drop zone. Man coverage is I have number 11. If that's a receiver is number 11, I have number 11. Zone is I am dropping to this area of the field and I am guarding this area to field with my eyes on the quarterback. match is I have number one of one, two, and three receivers. And that's how they're aligned. One from the outside counting outside to end.

And so that's the difference between match zone and man coverage when we talk about that stuff. But this is a great example of someone that uses more zone, traditional zone, than more match, which is what we see in the NFL today. Chris Evans is going to be that third down back, presumably for the Bengals. That's almost out of default. They just don't trust Joe Mixon in that role. And where that was a real strength for Samajie P-Ran, I think it might be a little. bit more of an adventure for whoever they drop into those drop back passing situations for Cleveland. And then one more thing in the past protection, you alluded to it a little bit.

Miles Garrett has some help now. And this is a retool Bengals offensive line. They feel better about this group than they've ever felt about front five starting offensive line for the Bengals. How do they hold up against this very new, very improved Brown's front, I think is a good test on both sides for both of these teams? Right. Yeah.

It's trial by fire for both sides. It's pretty cool. It could be two really good units, but they're getting tested right off the bat in the division two. Let's get to the other side of the ball. Number one thing you are watching when the Browns have the ball against the Bengals defense this weekend. This is what we talked about in our preview for the Browns offense, especially, was how does this mixing of what Deshaun Watson is good at, which is more of a shotgun heavy approach with RPO's,

maybe more sprinkled in, to what the Browns have leaned into, especially. especially as Stefanski, Nick Chubb and Bill Callahan, their offensive line coach, is they like to kind of a little bit more traditional runs. So in traditional under center looks. So what is the formula that they get to? And whether that kind of leads to, hey, they only do this things out of this formation. They only do this thing out of this formations, which ironically is what the old Bengals offense had to get through about having indicators. So kind of funny on that kind of just for this game. But just this Browns team, what is this formula of trying to kind of merge two.

worlds with their $250 million quarterback with what has worked for them in the past. I went back and I watched the late season game. These two teams played against each other. I think it was week 14 last year. So, Sean Watson was starting. And they were starting to incorporate some of these ideas. But you can tell it's like 62% of the way there. So a lot of the motion and a lot of the eye candy and splashing the water that we talk about that I think will be done by Elijah Moore within this offense this year.

It was Demetrick Felton last year. who's not even on the roster anymore. Right. So it felt like they were trying to get to the place that they're in now with this shotgun-based RPO world that they could live in with DeShon Watson, but they just couldn't do it all the way last year. And some of the numbers that the Browns' offense played in during that game last season, they were an 11 personnel on 83% of their snaps,

which is a huge departure from what we typically associate with the Browns. And the Bengals countered with a lot of light boxes, which I think is what the Browns want. If they're going to spread things out this year, they still want to run it, but they want to run it into more favorable looks. The Bengals were fantastic, stopping the run out of those light boxes when these two teams played each other last year late in this season. I think it was 2.7 yards of carry, and the Bengals were playing with six or fewer guys in the box on like 68% of their snaps. So that's a challenge. If you're going to line up that way and 11 and spread things out and you still can't run it, it doesn't really matter what we're going to get out of Deshaun Watson.

So if the Bengals can defend the run, like they did the last time these two teams, played even in that revamped model of the Browns offense, that's going to be a problem for Cleveland. Yeah, even with Deshaun Watson, and of course they want to get him going, that is going to make a break this Browns team this whole year. That's the true strength of this team. They're trying to get that passing game up to that level of what their run game has been the last few years. And they're going against one of the best defensive coordinators who makes great game plan adjustments, who is great with time on his hands and Lou Anna Rumo with the Bengals, they're going to make it tough. And so do any of those indicators that the Browns give?

Hey, they're in shotgun. That means they're doing this. Hey, they're under center in this formation. That means they're going to do this run play. The Bengals team has a lot of good players, a lot of smart players. Yes, they're working in two new safeties, but we kind of like those two new safeties. So, yeah, it's a smart veteran team.

I trust the rest of the infrastructure to lift those guys, I guess is how I would describe. Nine other starters essentially. And really only one new guy, quote unquote, because the other guy is a first round pick that's been in the system. So, yeah, it's one of the defenses you trust the most to find an answer. so the Browns have to find their answers. The tells thing is a really good one. What kind of tells do they give when they're under center

or when they're in shotgun? Are there tendencies that they start to develop because those worlds can feel so isolated? I think that's really important. There was one stretch I wanted to talk about very quickly before we moved on from the week 14 game last year. It was a play action pass on first down, and the route combination left the guy on an in-breaker

wide open over the middle. And Watson just doesn't throw it. He just doesn't throw it. Instead, he throws the ball at David and Joku in the backfield for a four-yard loss. So now it's second and 14, okay? They run the ball on second and 14 because they've done that a lot in Cleveland, where Stefansky's an analytically minded guy, but they didn't feel comfortable enough with the offense and the quarterbacks that they ran on second and long a lot.

It was like a two-yard gain, so now you're in third and 12, another sack punt. That type of sequence is what the Browns are. hoping to avoid this year on multiple different levels. Watson's pocket presence was a nightmare the last time these two teams played. If that's not better, it's over. None of the rest of this matters. We can talk about formations and melding styles, whatever. None of the rest of this matters.

And it was an awful last time these two team plays. I do not think the Browns will run the football anymore on second and 13. I think that style of who they were is out the window. So those little pockets of who that team was, it stretches last year, that's what they're trying to avoid. And this is going to be a very good test early on. for whether or not they can avoid those sorts of runs. And just to tie in, one last thing is that you said the 11 personnel, they wanted to get into that.

And you already mentioned Elijah Moore. They drafted Cedric Tillman. They have more firepower at those spots with the Martin Cooper. So it's like, it's not an idea anymore. They actually have some resources at those spots that they're trying to improve. I also, one thing about the safeties on the Bengals, I think we're going to see the Browns try to try to get them a couple times. I'm sure. And they're going to try to hit some explosives here.

And they're going to test those guys early on and the discipline early on. It's going to be a good game. Next one here. Chargers and the Dolphins, a rematch of another late season matchup that we saw last year that was, I think, really telling about who the Dolphins were during that stretch. It's a crossroads game. That's exactly what it felt like for the Chargers defense and for the Dolphins' offense. So let's start on that side of the ball.

Number one thing you are looking for when the Dolphins have the ball on Sunday in this game. It's who wins first and second down in this game. This Dolphins team is built through explosives. Yeah, I would be too if I had Tyro Kill and Jalen Waddle as my two top options. I'm going to feed over and over. Kind of going back to that game and I wrote about it afterwards was I forgot how many. I knew third downs were huge in that game and what the Chargers did on third down and fourth down, but it was how they got there.

They played the RPO world that the dolphins want to be in really well. And they made it tough. And so they created a lot of third and longs. The dolphins had nine third downs of seven yards or more. So that's third and long or third and extra long. They average five of those per game last year. So that is almost double their average over the year. That's really, really hard.

It was third and 12, third and 14. And then on third and fourth down, it's how they changed the picture afterwards. Of course, they got physical with the receivers. They tried to slow them down. But when you're in third and 12, it's way easier to play cover two into soft coverage and have my intermediate linebackers get way deep. They weren't worried about any checkdowns. So I want to see if they, this is, it's a kind of quasi question is like, do the Chargers just do that again, Mike?

And but it's the dolphins have smart coaches. And what is the Dolphins response? Correct. And what they did the last year was they stopped RPOing is they went straight run game, under center run game. And they did that that game and the Bill's game. We talked about this a bunch. But how much they lean into that? I just said that Hill and Waddle are their weapons.

But they did they lean into the run game, which has been more of a. complimentary piece than more something that they leaned into before. Our biggest question about the dolphins on offense this year, outside of health, was what is the evolution going to look like? After teams started throwing the curveball in the back half of the season, how do the dolphins try to hit it? We get the answer immediately.

This is the best possible week one matchup because we get that test. We get the defense that gave them such a hard time. And I think I brought this up on the Dolphins preview, but I was talking to a coach on that Charger staff this summer about the plan they had for that Dolphins team. These combo coverages with man on one side and zone on the other and just disrupting timing and being really physical. And he said this is something we devised specifically for them. This was a dolphin specific plan because of the way they like to play.

And so you combine that timing disruption with the physicality of their defensive backs with this kind of pack the paint mentality of we're going to have all these guys in the middle of the field. We're going to force you to throw the ball outside. So if you can't throw the ball, it's the Jordan rules. pack the paint and beat the shit out of them. That's what it is. It's the Detroit's the Detroit Pistons Jordan rules. I would not compare the chargers to the late 80s Pistons, early 90s pistons. It's the opposite in terms of field.

Yeah, it could be more opposite. But yeah, it's the Jordan rules. Sorry to interrupt, but it just could be like a lightning bolt. And so that we're going to find out. Can the dolphins run the ball consistently into those looks where you should be able to? And can they throw the ball outside the numbers if teams consistently try to make them do that. And again, this is just such a perfect test for those questions that we have. have about Miami.

One thing to mention J.C. Jackson has been banged up a little bit in practice. It sounds like he is going to play. So we're going to see what a nominally healthy charger secondary looks like heading into the season, which is a good thing. Taran Armstead has not been practicing. And that is a concern because when you go back and you watch this game from last year, the protection issues for the dolphins consistently creep up. Teran Armstead was banged up in that game.

And Kyle Van Nuoy was getting the better of him often. And Morgan Fox had one hell of a game against the interior of this Dolphins offensive line. So again, we're going to find out really damn quick where this Dolphins line is at in past protection against Joey Bosa, Kalil Mack, and a group that is going to try to get after them in this game. A healthy Joey Bosa and Kalil Mack that is when they're on the field together, it's amazing, but they just have to be on the field together. But that's where those third longs and those passing downs, the soft coverage and the changing of the picture, too, is very good pre-snap. guy, but maybe post-nap he kind of gets a little foggy, but he also hold on to the ball, that extra half-second. I would like Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa to have an extra half-second to work against the

Dolphins offensive line. So it all ties in together. I'm curious, too, if the charges, but if they bring any funky blitzes, because Staley got deep in that bag last year bringing some funky looks on third and fourth down. So that's something I'm curious that he might throw on as a change-up as well. A great barometer for both teams. Let's flip to the other side of the ball. Number one thing that you're looking for when the Chargers have the ball on Sunday

against the Dolphins defense. First off, just I'm really excited to watch this coordinator battle. Just two guys that's kind of been in our lives. I mean, the highest profile hires, I think, at each one of these positions in the NFL this offseason. Kellanmore was out of a job for like six hours. And Vic Fangio is being paid a healthy amount of money to be the defensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins. Yeah. These two guys had some name recognition when they hit the market.

But honestly, I just want to see what their identities. Well, we know what their identities are. the identities with these pieces. And I want to see if this Chargers team that has talked about, we're going to let, you know, we're going to let Justin Herbert rip it. We're going to let him bomb it down the field, push the ball. Going against a defense that is literally built does not let you do that. So it is a we're trying to prove something against a defense that wants you to try to prove

that. And I'm curious if that's what, who's going to, who's going to pop first? Do they try to attack them over the top? Do they lean into stuff underneath, whether it's a run game or short pass? is. I just want to see. I just want to see who kind of blinks or who pops first in this game because I think both sides are talented and both sides have really good play callers or good play callers. How does it all unfold and who kind of just blinks in the end first? It's another great way to get information about the Chargers offense because that's how defense has played them last year. They essentially said, we're not going to let you take these shots over the top with your cannon armed quarterback. It's not going to happen. And then when they had to find a change up, they struggled to do so. They could not run the ball against those looks. The Chargers last season finished. 29th in the NFL in EPA per rush against six-man boxes. 29th. You can't live that way.

Eventually, that's, you're going to short circuit everything else you want to do offensively. So if the dolphins are going to sit there in those sorts of boxes in a fan geo-esque way, the chargers need to be able to run the ball. And if they can't, this building optimism that we've had about the Kellynne-Morlet version of this team gets sapped away very quickly,

and I get very sad, as they are one of my teams and then finding the 10 team draft that we did. Oh, man. Just get sad because there's, I think the wide range of outcomes with this Chargers offense, always with the Chargers is just that's what kind of makes them just so interesting. It's like sometimes you're just anticipating a car wreck, but sometimes they go 120 and it looks beautiful. You know, and you're just like, oh, look at that Ferrari go. And then sometimes it just swerves and it's terrible.

But it's a test of discipline as well. I think one of my critiques of Calangio is as discipline as it gets. as a play caller, he's going to run what he runs. But Kellyn Moore, on the other hand, is that's one of my criticisms has been he feels like he has 50 great plays. He wants to call all 50 as opposed to maybe leaning into what is working. So does he stay patient or does he get impatient because he has a big bazook arm quarterback?

And he's like, hell yeah, let's go. Let it rip. Let it rip. Quietly great set of matchups on that side of the ball is the Dolphins front against the Chargers offensive line. The Dolphins front, I think we've spent so much time talking about Fangio and about the offensive. pieces.

Zach Seeler got paid like $12 million a year this off season. I think a lot of people looked at that and said, who? He is an awesome interior defensive lineman. You combine that with Christian Wilkins, the J.O. and Phillips, who both of us said would be a breakout player this year. Bradley Chubu, they paid an insane amount of money and traded a first round pick for. That group going against what I am comfortable saying is the best Chargers offensive line in five years, seven years.

it's been a long time since the Chargers have had an offensive line this good. And that's saying something. Because it's not like it's full of like all pro players. It's like a no hitter. I don't want to talk about it. You know, I don't want to like ruin it as it's going. They're healthy right now. So I'm just, that's why I was like, Kalil Mack and Bosa are healthy.

We can tell. We can stop talking about this. There's no reason to spoil before we get into it. No, but but but also too is Austin Ackler is a great running back. How does he hold up in this game if they're just going to go, hey, we're feeding you down in between the tackle. other backups, other runbacks have to step up as well. So that's always been a complaint for my Chargers roster critiques,

but this might be a game where they could really use a hammerhead because they might need it. Third game of the week for us here, the Bills and the Jets. This is the type of game I was imagining in the open when we were talking about just the amount of awesome games that are just going to be lining the schedule this year. The fact that this is week one Monday night is we get this Bill's team who you picked to win the Super Bowl going up against an Aaron Rogers-led Jets team. You can't ask for anything more than this. So let's start with the Bill's offense against the Jets defense. Number one thing you were looking for when those two units are on the field together. Everything kind of every time we've talked about this Bill's team,

I think any time we've mentioned them is how this kind of identity shift or ways to change their identity on offense, whether it's through personnel, whether it's through formation. Do they stick with that? Do they get to it? There is, it's a lot of ideas get thrown out the window as soon as they get, to practice in the NFL. And all of a sudden it's like, man, we're going to lean into this guy. Wait until you see this stuff.

Oh my God. Every third down, we're going to dial it up. And then the guy, you know, isn't playing their scrub backups in practice. And he's actually playing like NFL starters. And he gets swallowed up. And it's like, well, you know, first round rookies always sound really great until it's like week six. And you're like, man, this guy can't win against press or something like that.

So I just, this identity shift with the, Don't Kincaid, their new tight end, the offensive alignment they've added, the Damien Harriset running back, I had a little more just power to this team. and different ways to pivot during a game, how's it go against what we both are considered one of the elite defenses this year who are built at all three levels and who have speed and have answers to what you are trying to do? This is a great test for, again, discipline and whether this identity shift they can commit to it and actually have answers in real life NFL games. It was so funny going back and watching that week 14 matchup between these two teams last year. And the theoretical

changes and improvements that the bills have made on offense, I think, are twofold. One, getting more stout on the offensive line, going out and getting Connor Williams, drafting Osirons, Torrance in the second round. And the two, having more underneath a rhythm-based passing game. And that is what Dalton Kincaid theoretically provides you. And you watch that matchup in week 14. And those are the two things that were just non-existent in the bill's offensive game plan. They just have all these down-the-field routes that are never going to work against this

quarters-based team that you should be able to pepper underneath. They have nothing underneath. And then every once in a while, when you feel good about the actual route concepts and structure of the passing game, they just cannot hold up in protection. They cannot hold up at all. And the two guards stand out. Also, Spencer Brown could not hold up. So that remains a big question. He was one of our big X factors for the bills heading into the season. They're starting where it's not like the jets go eat deep at edge. But that's another example of, man, we're going to find out a lot about this bill's front. And whether or not those changes are just an idea or whether or not they actually can take this offense to the next level because that there's no better test than what they're going to see

against the Jets on Monday night. And also like the the answer that the bills are trying to solve or like they're trying to find that kind of really secondary role to Stefan Dix because that's one of the best connections is Josh Allen and Stefan Dix. So that's where Don Kincaid theoretically is that jumbo slot guy. But the jet. are built to play in nickel with five dbs. So the one thing that we're saying we're most concerned about with Don't Kincaid, and the theory of him is going to get tested right away against a team that is fine going, oh, you want to run the ball?

Like, and yeah, we're fine playing with five dbs on the field against your 12 personnel with two tight outs. They are not scared to play that way. So again, another thing that we might see some answers or like, wow, they actually can do that. It's a jet team that has answers to what the bills are trying to solve and which is is going to be very, very fascinating. This idea of where the matchups come in this 11 and a half personnel Dalton Kincaid world,

whether that's, if you're going to play nickel, can we run it? If you're going to play base, can he take advantage of linebackers? It's the first one with the Jets. And if they run into a brick wall over and over and over again in the run game against these nickel looks from the jets, it's going to be another one of those. Uh-oh. Like this thing we thought we were getting doesn't seem like we're getting. The Patriots play in 6 dBs.

The Dolphins are fine playing with those boxes too with 5 dBs. it's like, oh, so just in their division, they're already facing issues that, yeah. So that just gets taken away right away. That would be very concerning for my Super Bowl pick. I cannot wait to watch that Jets front against the Bill's offensive line and just with the way that they hold up. Also, fantastic matchup anytime we get Stefan Diggs and Sauce Gardner. I mean, that that outside the numbers matchup is going to be beautiful, very excited about that one. Outside of numbers on one side of the field.

Yes. So they can avoid them all the entire game if they wanted to. We'll see. Maybe that's where we sacrifice, Dalton, KK2. You get sauced the whole game. Other side of the ball, number one thing you were looking for with this Jets offense against the Bills defense. First and foremost, I'll be watching every time I watch this Jets offense other than like, wow, look at that pretty ball from Aaron Rogers, is how is this

offense a line hold up? That's going to make or break this NFL season, or this season for the Jets is how that offensive line holds up. We just talk, we gush about their defense. I think the Jets defense is one of the units I feel best about in the entire N. fell about how they'll be this year. The offense has some upside with Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rogers, of course, some nice complimentary pieces. Can the run game be sustainable? It was one of the worst in the league last year, and they didn't really improve that offensive line. And they're signing Dalvin Cook, who, you know, it's just another year older. And the Bruce Hall is coming off an injury. So how's the offensive line hold up in protection? How is that hold up in the run game?

And they're going against a Bill's team that even without Von Miller has depth up front and has been a top 10 unit for the last few years against the run and the past. So again, this is just going to be another team and another unit that's tested right away against a good unit. Are you worried about the quality of the Jets pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson? This is something I was thinking about the other day while I was watching hard knocks and seeing Randall Cobb line up with the starters. A little too much Randall Cobb for my liking.

I will admit that. I like Lazard, but he's like a three. You know, like a, you know, he's a power slot. He might as well be a tight end. after that though like the tight ends are all nice like you know but like they're not pass catchers they're more like you know just role players so yeah I guess actually as I talk it out I am outside of Garrett Wilson but the thing is so much time this off season we're 190 targets so that so this is the argument again this is the argument in favor of this model is that the Packers were fine when it was

Devante Alan Lazard and whoever else Robert Tonyon you know they were the best offense in the league or one of them Aaron Rogers won two straight MVP's that model requires you to build the passing game specifically through one person. Aaron told me last summer when we were talking about the changes potentially with Devante gone. I think he said 80% of their concepts. Devante was the primary read on those passing concepts. 80%.

It would make sense, right? It was an efficient way to play. Don't get it with it. If they just solely and pointedly build through Garrett Wilson, is he good enough to kind of lift that entire passing offense? And even if you're bullish about him, I don't think it's unfair to say he's not Devante Adams yet. And are the other guys good enough to potentially fill those roles? So I think we, again, we spent so much time thinking about the offensive line.

I think we just kind of penciled in the past catchers as good enough. And I just want to interrogate that a tiny bit. Good enough off name recognition. That's what it is. Oh, yeah, I know that guy. But then it's like, oh, wait. Oh. And someone that I've seen at Jets practice or talked to you that was that Jets practice said,

he's pepper and Garrett Wilson over and over. But as soon as things break down, he finds Randall Cobb. Like that, those are, that was a security blanket. It's like, that's why he's there. He's his, remember, he's his pumpkin to his C-Biscuit. That's exactly what he is, is to keep him calm and everything on the rails. But again, it's going to come down to the offensive line. But I, the preseason that was optimistic, but, or, you know, the arrow was pointing up

after that one drive. It looked awesome. But we got to see it for 17 games. And when teams start having answers once you're putting stuff on tape. that that's always going to be the thing that you have to solve. All right, we're going to take a quick break, and then we're going to be back with our matchups of the week. All right, this segment is sponsored by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV.

Two matchups, specifically on one side of the ball that we're going to dig into here. The first one, the Eagles offense against the Patriots defense. Just a fantastic potential chess match here between these two units. And Eagles offense that presents myriad problems of all sorts to any defense. they play against. And a defense that you and I are both bullish on, I think I had them as the top three defense heading into the season, a defense with a ton of flexibility and options that I think is a very interesting counterbalance to a Philadelphia Eagles offense that can do so much.

Number one thing you are zeroing in on watching these two units play against each other. The number one thing I'm zeroing in on is who does Bill Belichick slash Steve Belichick slash Mayo? I'll never, I'll never know who is dialing these plays up. Who do they zero in on? The Bill Belichick has been known. They run a lot of man coverage and a lot of one double coverage, which is they identify the number one target or what they deem to be the number one target on the opposing team, especially on passing downs. They double team them.

And then they put their best corner on the next best receiver. Sometimes that is the best receiver. So with an Eagles team that has Devante Smith, a agent. Jay Brown and Dallas Goddard, do they live in that world? Last year, we saw this Patriots team lean into different things. They ran a little bit more quarters coverage than they ever have that I've ever seen a Belichick defense do, you know, little softer stuff. They blitzed a little bit less.

So do they lean into those things? Do they lean into typical Belichick stuff? They got drafted Christian Gonzalez in the first round and then they lean into their front, or do they tweak because they are playing the Eagles offense that has so much firepower is built to win up front and just has answer. are the if this, then that offense. You take away this, we're going to do that. You take away that.

We're going to do this. And they do it over and over, but they're going against Bill Belichick. I want to see what Belichick comes up with, what his answer to this riddle that is the Eagles offense. I cannot wait to see what that answer looks like. Because there are teams that had success against the Eagles offense last year, like the Colts, for example. The Colts played the Eagles offense very well last year.

The Bears. The Bears played them pretty well. But the Colts specifically, the Colts were in cover one on like 53 percent of the Patriots offensive, or the Eagles offensive plays when they played last year. I was like, oh, well, how did the Eagles do against man coverage overall last season? They were the best team in the league against man coverage last season. So I don't, exactly. So you have those matchups on the outside if you're going to play a man.

And then if you're not going to play man, they've got 10,000 RPO's that they can run against you. So there's so many different ways they can attack you. It's hard to kind of zero in on what the single answer is and the single model is to slow this team down. and you have a rookie corner, potentially on the outside with Christian Gonzalez, having to man up against A.J. Brown or Devante Smith if they want to live in that world. So I have no idea what that final answer is going to be. But where they land and what the matchups up front look like as part of that answer, I cannot wait to watch that. It's a great hoss fight up front. That Patriots D-Line versus that Eagles offense line, oh my good.

We're talking about all the skill guys, just the front. for anyone that likes line play is going to love this game. It's bruisers against bruisers. It's a lot of talent. Even on third down, you're going to get Josh Uche out there, like, see what he can do against Elaine Johnson and Jordan Bialata. Like, so that's pretty fun. Like, there's a lot of good matchups.

And another thing, too, is the Patriots love to live with 60Bs or more, dying personnel. Do they live in that world against an Eagles team that will live in 11, do a little bit of 12 with two tight ends? Like, do they have a good answer with those? like body types, but are willing to play physical, if that makes sense. Like, they can kind of match the Eagles spread bruiser mentality, I guess. It's what are they used to call it with the Titans?

Exotic smash mouth. Exotic smash mouth. Yeah, yeah, but it's not exotic smash mouth. It's like spread smash mouth, I guess is the best way to put it. So I guess a Patriots defense that will live in that world and has a lot of Swiss Army knife. So it's awesome. This is a great battle. It's a really good answer for both teams.

And I think if one team blew out another team, I would not be indicative of anything because I just think it's two really good teams that have cool answers or potential answers to each other. One last thing is Patriots do over the years they love to bring Cover Zero and bring that a lot. And the Eagles have kind of one answer to that. Jalen Hertz had 28 past attempts against Cover Zero last year. 22 of them were screens. That's just me fooling around on true media. I can imagine the Patriots guys with all their quality control guys. going over this film over and over,

they probably have some tells there. So I'm curious if he heats them up and tries to make them simple in that way. They did not want to push the ball downfield when Blitzed last season. And is that a tendency? Is that just a feature of this offense or of Jalen Hertz?

Or is that limited to what they were in 2022? I think it's going to be a really important answer for the next stage of this Eagles offense. Yeah, and I'm curious just frontwise what the Patriots end up doing because there have been times in the past when they've had a lot of time to repair. You think about the Super Bowl against their Rams, for example,

and just how unique and specific the ways they deployed their fronts were against that sort of run game against another kind of hyper-specific run game on the Eagles. What are the answers or the plans that they have for the types of fronts that they're going to try out there? And if it works, it's on tape now. That's the thing. And of course, not everyone's built like the Patriots defense. But, you know, when you put it on tape, look what happened to Rams offense the following

a few years after what Fangio and Belichick did to them. I think the Eagles have more counterpunches than those Rams teams did, but still, I think, was something worth paying attention to. Raining runner-up MVP, all pro-calver receivers, Dow got like awesome offense a line, great tight end. Yeah, they have some good answers. Next one here, the Niners offense against the Steelers defense. Another just wonderful week one matchup between these two teams.

Number one thing you're looking for when the Niners have the ball against Pittsburgh. I got two things. I'll start up front. And it's kind of a great stylistic fight. Again, it is a 40-N-Ires team that's built off a little bit off misdirection and finesse and speed and discipline versus a Steelers front that's mallers and ass kickers and really good ones too. And I just love that matchup. It's a style mixed fight types of ones. I think these are two good units.

Obviously, the 49ers offense, they live with their run game. It doesn't matter who's playing quarterback for them. That is what Kyle Shan is going to do. And he's very good at it. But he's going against a Steelers front that I think is, I think a lot of us think is going to be a very good unit that might give him some issues. So what are the counterpunches, not just to say counterplays that the 40-9ers get to? And what else do they kind of lean into and how do they attack the Steelers defense? That is another usually good unit coming out in week one when Mike Tomlin and the defensive staff has time to prepare.

I believe during the 2019 season in week three, the Niners played against the Steelers. Steelers. And that game specifically, I remember talking to John Embry, who was the tight ends coach on those teams. I actually don't know where he is now. I think he might be back in college. But he was the tight ends coach on those teams and talking to him during the Super Bowl week because that was the year that – he's on the – he's on the dog – he's the tight ends coach for the dolphins.

He's on that stuff now, which makes a lot of sense. So he – I was talking about the way that the Steelers were playing against their run game. And that game specifically with how wide the Steelers' edges played was one of the things that really pushed the Niners to use more. gap scheme runs and kind of trend away from the outside zone world that they had lived in kind of wholeheartedly in previous years and in previous iterations of the offense. So it's always a good test. This Steelers team is a good test for where your weaknesses are and maybe some of the ways that you might need to iterate over the course of the season.

And the one question we had about the Niners, personnel-wise, outside of quarterback heading into this year, is what their offensive line was going to look like. The right tackle with McGlinchie not there anymore and just those. potential personnel weaknesses. This is a fantastic test for that. You have T.J. Watt. You have Alex Highsmith. You have all those ass kickers along the interior.

This is going to be a great way to find out if this Niners team with that offensive line kind of match the physicality of some of the teams that they're going to have to play against this year. Just remember what happened in week one last year to the Bengals offense and Joe Burrow. It was against this against the Steelers defense. Five turnovers. It might have been four picks. But you have five turnovers, they just gave them hell.

And that's because they're running a lot of, they did what defense started to try to do to the Bengals. And then the Bengals evolved from that. They've done that a couple times over the last few years. There are a very good week one test. Remember that game against the Bills? The year after the Bills and John Chowen had his breakout season, the Bills came out and tried to do more of the same and live in that spread world. Because the previous year. They've ran all the simulated pressures.

Yes, that's right. So the previous year, the Bills had played against more man coverage than any team in the NFL and Josh and Josh Allen's breakout year. And I went back and I was like, why? Like, why would you play all this man against this team that wants to spread around and throw it all around the yard? And so week one, the Steelers come out and just play

shitloads of cover two and the bills again trying to push the ball down the field and struggled because they just weren't willing to kind of bite off. And they broke their protection rules. They just did it over and over and over just but they only rushed four and they just messed with them. It was, it was Unbelievable. That's right. That was like, oh, and it was also like a Mika Fitzpatrick like all-star performance.

Speaking of Mika Fitzpatrick, actually, this ties right in. So my next point. God, I do not expect myself to be talking a lot about Baker Fitzpatrick this past week, but here we go. Awesome player. But how the Steelers use them and they've done this with a lot of good players, you wrote about this, is they will kind of free them up to be stars. They kind of, by design. And it's almost easier to do that with the safety position. Because in one coverage, one robber where one of the safety rotates down. Everyone else is in man-to-man coverage, but the safety rotates down into the middle of the field and it's just playing the ball. Playing the quarterback, playing the concept, but you're letting a good player be good. And why that is very significant is because of what Brock Purdy and these Shanahan offenses have always leaning to when they drop back and pass. Last year, the three top quarterbacks, the throw over the middle of the field between the hashes, I'm sorry, between the numbers.

were Tua, Brock Purdy, and Jimmy G. And that is not a coincidence, but it's Kyle Shanhan's two quarterbacks and one of Kyle Shanhan's disciples in Miami. So again, this became kind of a thing was that Jimmy G would throw some interceptions over the middle blind because he just drops back, trust that they're trying to create yards after the catch.

It's by design. Now you're dropping what I deem one of the best players on defense in the league into that area that's vulnerable, that the 49ers are trying to attack as well. Does that come to a head? Does this elite player break the design of what the 40-9ers want to do if they do get into these third and long situations where they have to drop back? I think that's just going to be super interesting. I just wonder if a play comes off of that type of look or if the 49ers are smart and do something off of that.

That's another thing that I'm really looking at. Guess what, buddy? The last time these two teams played against each other, make if it's Patrick had an interception. So it's something to keep an eye on. The defensive player in the year campaign just keeps rolling. that packing the paint idea that we talked about with the nine with the dolphins also applies to the nineers. And I think that you will see a defensive game plan on the back end from the Steelers that probably incorporate some of those ideas. The one hitch to my problem is that or to this like answer I just threw out there in this one theory and I just thought about two is that if you're on one robber that puts a linebacker on a running back, you knew who plays running back for the 40-nires, Chris McCaffrey.

So that might cause a little some issues that you don't really want to lean into this rubber too much, but we'll see. Well, that's again, you might have to iron personnel. You might have other answers that the Steelers might have for those plays. Well, I don't know if this is a causation thing, but the Niners have not faced a lot of man coverage compared to other NFL teams over the last couple years. And I think that's twofold. One, all the motion that they use dissuades teams from playing man coverage against them. And two, with this positionless football idea that they've really embraced, it becomes really difficult to play man against. some of those looks.

So it might have been a product of Jimmy sucks against this stuff. We need to not let teams play one robber against us anymore. So let's put Debo in the backfield and handle the ball. Look at them go. We'll see if that corner can tackle. All right. It's time now for what's in Maze's Multi-View, which is sponsored by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV.

For those of you unfamiliar with the way that YouTube and YouTube TV are going to handle NFL Sunday ticket, they have a multi-view option, which allows you to choose for an option that has four different games programmed at the same time. So we're going to allow listeners to argue for which sort of multi-view option that I should pick. I have to pick one with the game that was best argued for. This is an extension of what we did last year where you got to argue for which game should be in my fourth screen that I had during my Sunday setup. For those of you unfamiliar with the segment, the sadder, the more desperate, the more unhinged,

your arguments, your emails. That's what we're looking for here. So be on the lookout next week. I'll be honest. After week one, I need a little bit more from you guys. Oh, no. I just need a little bit more. They weren't crazy enough.

And I know we don't have a lot to go off of yet. But I just need. Yeah. I just need one more step up from you guys. But Joseph Hikowski, he brought it to the point where I felt good about landing on this one. He says, I was considering pitching my giants for week one. Well, I'm not entirely bought in. I think they showed enough last year and upgraded enough over the off season.

that I don't think I can claim that it's desperate and sad. No, I'm going to pitch you Cardinals versus the Washington football team. Inside all of us, there's a small part that takes pleasure in the spectacle of disaster. Who among us did not have a little shot in Friday during that Broncos Colts game last year? And this Cardinals teams? I think one can argue this is the most intentionally awful team the NFL has ever seen. Even last year's Bears, while they tore down to the studs, had a talented young quarterback who did some exciting things. Even the tank for two a Dolphins had a solid defensive head coach in Ryan Fitzpatrick

who could play some pretty good football in stretches. This Cardinals team, they decided Colt McCoy, 37-year-old career backup, was too good and needed to be gotten rid of immediately. The rest of the roster is atrocious. The offensive coordinator is, at best, unproven. They're going up against a defense you all think has the potential to be very good. The Cardinals' offense has the potential to be a train wreck of ungodly proportions. Watch it now before Kyler comes back and single-handedly. makes it watchable again.

The other side of the ball is marginally better. Jonathan Gannon had a good defense last year, and Sam Howell is a late round year two flyer. But Gannon, as I understand it, runs a very lineup and play defense, which works great when you have a 70-sac pass rush and probably the best starting corner trio in the league. Maybe not so good here. And Eric B. Enemy, whatever he ends up being, was just in the room where they

absolutely shredded Gannon's defense. What we have here is a Cardinals team with the potential to be a disaster for the ages, with a front office that isn't even trying to conceal the tank up against a Washington team finally free from the specter that has haunted them for decades. They're a team with reason to hope and that really needs to succeed for everyone to keep their jobs. We might be in for a truly impressive drubbing. Followed by a week of completely unjustified is Sam Howell for real discourse. Delightful.

There we go. That's our first four screen email of the year. Very strong. Thank you to Joseph for sending that in. Good shlock. It's going to be really good schlock. Thank you for sending him for sending that. that in, we will be soliciting those emails every single week.

So please be on the lookout for your opportunity to send that in and tell me which slot that I need to watch. Before we get to Diana, the last way, the way we're going to close out these shows on Thursday. We're not all making picks this year. I don't like to. I don't want to. So we're throwing this all on you.

You're making these anyway. So each week we have three of Tice's Touts that we're going to try it out heading into the weekend. your three favorite picks against the spread. Hit me with the first one. Actually, a couple tied into what we've talked about. So if you want to hear a lot more of my reasoning, for her to listen to the last 45 minutes of this show,

going with the Steelers plus two and a half at home, Tomlin, at home, week one. I know the 49ers have had some slow starts. It's, you know, for the season. I know they worked in Trey Lance and everything, but I think Tomlin will jump them. I really like what they do week one, which is everything we laid up for the other side of the ball.

I think they can buck it up. offense will do enough against a really tough defense. I just think it'll be a low-scoring, kind of a rock fight-ish type game, maybe a couple of explosive plays. I'm going to Steelers plus two and a half. Betting against that Niners' offense in McAfree in week one is just a bold, bold choice on your part. The Niners team that I have in our wind pool that I have winning a lot of games this year. I think I picked them as the one seed.

Yeah, I mean, I have them start with a loss because. Force of nature for the entire second half of the season, whenever they have a functional starting quarterback. Yeah. They have, yeah, at least almost like double digit, all pro caliber players. Yeah, that's, that's who I'm betting against. Hey, you know, you can pick any game. You know that, right? And this is the way you're going to go with?

Fock committed. Uh, next one, speaking of Pock committed, Falcons minus three and a half. Come on. Do you think I wasn't? You didn't think I was going to do this? This is what I'm into. This one I'm into. And it was three.

Yeah, I've gotten a three. It's a three and a half now. But yeah, I think this Panthers teams, another team that's come up to slow starts. is anybody coached by Frank Reich. This was the team that lost the Jags week one when they only won one game that year that when they ended up getting Trevor with the number one pick, maybe two games. But anyways, Falcons anyways, I think match up well. I know the Panthers defense can be very frisky.

I think they're going to be a good unit. But I think the Falcons units. What a great week one matchup in figuring out what those two units are going to look like. Falcons offense against the Panthers defense is fantastic. But this one I have no criticism of. I think the Steelers plus two and a half is an insane first choice to kick off the season. And that's what I let it with. I let it with that.

I thought I was going to ease into these waters with Steelers plus two and a half. But yeah, everyone knows my thinking with the Falcons. I just think also breaking a new rookie quarterback for the Panthers. Kind of a nice first test for this new revamp Falcons defense. They're working. I don't know even though he was playing receiver outside. You know, Chanel, Amir Smith, Marcette, Mingo, who's a rookie, a raw rookie. Not a bad kind of matchup to test this falcons defense.

I want to see the Falcons defense beat the hell out of the Panthers offense. I want to see that. They can't do it here. That's what I want to see. Understanding the Falcons ceiling, obviously so much of it has to do with Desmond Ritter, but I want to see this new and revamp Falcons defense really show me something in week one. That's what I'm saying about this Falcons teams.

They're the bad team beater. They're the bad unit beater. That's why they're built to be. So can they do it? This is a great way to answer that, at least in week one. Another one, I actually have two. So I'll just throw them time together. I'll be quick.

It's cheap. I know. It's week one. Let's just get it out. All the teams are playing. There's 16 games. Patriots plus four. Things we talked about,

think they'll make it another team that might make it a little dirty. I think this Eagles defense, I'm really curious to see what they can do. I want to see what these new pieces up front can do. Not really feeling great about the Patriots offense and they're fun. I'm going to say, perhaps not the best test for what this Eagles defense is going to be, even with Bill O'Brien in town. I know.

I'm taking points. and this is more of a game. I think the Eagles still win, but I think that they do not cover. I just think the Patriots keep it close because of their defense kind of helps them out. I don't know if it's turnovers or what, but they can have enough answers at least to kind of keep them close in the game. But I do think the Eagles will win, but do not cover. Last one, Cowboys minus three. I'll just, can't just like end it like that.

I don't know. I'm worded out. No, you don't need to say anything else. You pick the Cowboys to, they're in your wins pool. you pick them in like third in among all the 10 teams that we picked I know you're very high on the cowboys so uh another great game though yeah played well against the Giants last year and I think this cowboy's team is as healthy it's ever going to be and there's tyron smith already on the injury report uh but they're as healthy as they're as ever going to be so might as well just take them when they're at their healthiest because who knows how much how long this can last so it's a very talented team I'd be very excited to see him so anyways cowboy's mystery word it out is totally fine We spent a lot of time talking about all these teams. As like you just mentioned, please come check out our Thursday night football recap. If you're listening to this after the game, it'll be available on YouTube.

Those are going to be available exclusively on YouTube this season the same way they were last year. So that is all me and you have before the season kicks off. We're going to take one more quick break and then get to Diana. Joining us now, it is our senior NFL insider here at the athletic. It's Diana Rusini. Diana, how are you? I'm good. I'm ready to go.

This is the longest offseason of my life, so I want to get into this. We're recording this on Thursday. You guys will be listened to it hopefully a little bit later today into Friday, so maybe after the first game kicks off. Just a heads up, we're doing this on the Thursday preview podcast this week. Starting next week, Diana and I are going to have a weekly show coming your guys's way on YouTube. We are live streaming it at 2 p.m. Eastern on Tuesdays. Just a way to get your weekly news wrap up, your weekly news fix, all the stuff that Diana has been digging around on for the past six, seven days.

We're bringing that to you every single week on the Athletic Football Show YouTube page, and we are very excited about it. So let's dig into this week's news because there is plenty to get to, and I wanted to hit a lot of this before week one kicked off. A bombshell yesterday, Diana. You texted me 34 with several. exclamation points after the Nick Bosa contract was finalized. Five years, $170 million, $122 million guaranteed from the Niners. My first question on this, why the huge markup on the Aaron Donald deal? I can understand them wanting to top that contract and maybe that being a point of friction between the Niners and Nick Bosa's camp.

But how did they get this sort of markup on the biggest non-quarterback contract in the NFL? Well, first of all, don't you dare lie to these? listeners here, your loyal fans. The truth is, I sent you 34, the number with exclamation points, followed by a few curse words. And that was because of the exact point you just made and the question you're asking me, which is this entire time, the expectation has been that Nick Bosa will get a little bit more than Aaron Donald. That's how I believe the 49ers were approaching this deal. And that's pretty much the rest of the way the NFL was viewing this. And this was even from just having conversations around the league with other GMs who are dealing with their own

contract situations with their own players. And we'll get to that in a little bit. But when you take a look at why he was able to get $3 million more. This is a huge markup from what we expected. From the information, the conversations I've been having, this really lies on Nick Bosa, while we can give the agent the credit, and he has a very, very tough negotiator representing him. But in terms of having the stomach to do this, to be able to sit there and go, this is my value, this is the number I want, and I'm not blinking. I'm willing to sit out. I'm willing to miss games. I'm willing to be off the field. to get the number that I know I deserve.

I mean, that is one heck of a game of chicken, especially at this point in the calendar. But credit to him. And I'm wondering, I wanted to ask you this, do you know why they didn't try to get something done last year? Was that also part of the motivation from Bosa's camp saying, we're comfortable rolling into the year.

We think his value can be even higher than it is right now because the Niners potentially could have avoided this sort of situation if they had tried to pay him at this time last year. But obviously you need two sides to be willing to make something like that. happen. John Lynch walked around the facility yesterday with a gigantic smile and we saw and heard all the reporting

about it and that was my thought was I understand he's smiling because he was able to get a deal done with a player of Nick Bosa's caliber and this situation was really an aberration, this kind of contract. But you have

to wonder how much money this organization could have saved if they just did this earlier. And this is something that's been shared with me throughout the league when people have been watching this is what were the Niners waiting for? Why were they so, did they undervalue Nick Bosa? Was there somebody there going, yeah, yeah, he's not going to be worth that much. And now they're waking up today. And I'm sure ownership, I don't care how rich you are, writing a check like they're going to have to write for Nick Bosa.

even if you have all the respect in the world for what he can do and what he can bring your team because this is a team that is obviously all in, right? I don't think we have any question marks from the outside, wondering what the San Francisco 49ers are doing here because they're going to have to make some changes coming up in the next few years. They're all in on this year. But that being said, you have to wonder if this could have been avoided. The cap they're looking at in 2024, even with a quarterback who's making

like $16 or whatever Brock Purdy is going to make that year. Eric Armstead at 25.6, Trent Williams, a 31.7. George Kittle at 21.2. Fred Warner at 24.5. Debo at 28.5. And now, Jafon Hargrave at 15.5. Chavarious Ward at 17.9. There's $6 million over the cap without Nick Bosa's cap hit and a quarterback who's drafted in the seventh round. That's how many good players they've already. already paid on this roster. This is a dream team, man.

They have built something incredible. It's a dream until you've got to do the accounting, though. Well, that it's the, they're a dream team in 2023. And now we'll see how they'll be able to figure this out. And look, once we get all the details of the structure of VOSA, we can figure out how the Niners were able to swallow this

and be able to plan for the future. If I'm just going to keep going back to, to just my past experiences when talking to players in negotiations, and I wasn't talking directly to Nick through this, but just from other players, that ability to say, listen, I understand this is a lot of money,

right? Let's just say that original number was slightly above the errandado, or we'll just say it was 31, 32. Let's, for this example, pretend that that's where the Niners were settling at or at least offering or willing to go that high at one point.

to be able to say no, no, yes, I understand that's a lot of money, but I'm worth more and I'm going to sit here. I think to have that resolve in you speaks a lot to Nick Bosa. And we obviously know the history with his brother and how these guys have negotiated. And I wrote about this the other day that when I was speaking to a league source about this negotiation before it was complete. I had this person say, the bosses don't budge. And I don't think I truly value that phrasing in the moment.

Because now that we see this number, it's a blockbuster, this really has changed the landscape and the salary scale across the league. $50 million signing bonus. So obviously that's going to be $10 million a year prorated over the life of the deal. So his cap it next year will be at least $10 million. I wouldn't be surprised if it was some sort of minimum-based salary on top of that to keep it as low as possible. And then they'll pump it up in future years when a couple of these guys in their early to mid-30s potentially are off the roster. But there's a lot of things they have to juggle.

Luckily, the Niners are very good at managing the cap and have been for a while. They get away with some stuff that other teams aren't willing to try. So we'll see what they can do and what kind of magic they can pull off this time. Yeah, this is their window. This might be their last year to keep all big money guys together before they've got to make decisions to move on from guys. I'm potentially making a Brandon Ayuk phone call next off season, if I'm another team, by the way. He's playing on his fifth year option, but it doesn't seem like the way things are currently going that they might be able to pay him. So just just one thing to keep in mind.

Sticking in the edge rusher market very quickly here, any sort of insight on where the Brian Burns market might be and whether this could potentially be resolved sometime in the short term between him and the Panthers. So let's blanket all of these contracts right now with this thought. Every agent has been waiting for this Nick Bosa deal. This is why here we are, week one, talking about star players waiting for contract extensions. We've never seen anything like this before, by the way. We've never had this many players who are the best at their position, not have their deals done. We've got Joe Borough, Justin Jefferson, Chris Jones. Nick got done yesterday.

Now we have the Brian Burns situation who shows. up at practice in ped. We're not certain exactly what he did on the field if he just participated, just only in individuals. He was listed as a full participant, though, right? So that's a really good sign that he's out on the field. The question mark is going to be, will he be out there on Sunday? And now with the Bosa deal resetting the price, are they going to be able to go back

here? Is his representation going to say, okay, well, actually, our number changed. And the perspective from the other side, from the clubs in these positions, is the Nick Bosa really is unique at itself, right? You can't, there's no, there's no, you can't compare,

we're obviously not comparing Burns to Bosa in this situation, but in terms of the pay, the question to me is, is he worth more than a Max Crosby? that's that's the number is he is the 25 million a year range what they're looking for and are they going to be able to get it and a lot you know when you take a look at the panthers organization their owner his background is finance right so you know that in in terms of business he is you're not going to be able to pull um you're not going to be able to surprise him with anything and in these negotiations so

I don't know at this point right now if Brian is going to be on the field on Sunday, I can tell you from speaking with people in the organization, they're obviously working hard to try to figure this out and make it work. But the BOSA situation is certainly changing the way of the conversations are going for all these players looking for extensions. That's without a doubt. Because now the 25 number isn't a little bit more than Max Crosby or equal to Miles Garrett. If I'm Brian Burns' representation, the 25 number is it's $9 million less than the top of the market.

We're giving you a deal. We're 60% of what the top guy is making. Why is this crazy? And on the burn side of this, the fact that it's public knowledge that the Rams tried to trade two first round picks for him and the Panthers turned it down, I think that is a smidge of leverage potentially in these conversations. And it is. And they're aware of it and they're using that for sure. Why wouldn't they?

you know and this is where you have to wonder how teams are approaching these contracts by look we all know they if you it's good to pay a little early if you can and you look at the panthers and you know they had a lot going on there over the last few years coaching changes some roster overhaul there um you have to wonder where they were at in terms of being on the same page of the future of a lot of these guys. So, yeah, maybe the Panthers could have saved a little if they were, if they approached just the right way. But I think now they're in a position where I wouldn't be surprised if they, if they work this deal out. I don't think this is something that's going to drag it. I do think they'll work it out. But again, you never know. Yesterday afternoon, so

Wednesday afternoon. I was talking about Nick Bosa on a radio show because the sources that I was telling is telling me were like, this thing is still, still apart. We're not together, but it takes one call. And that's exactly what happened, Robert. It was like one call done. And that's the number he got. Let's get to the next one on the docket, the next monster contract that could be coming down the pipe here. And that is Joe Burrow. We're talking a little bit about this this week, the fact that It's a little bit surprising that the season's about to kick off and Joe Burrow has not signed this extension when seemingly all the things that would have needed to happen, all the dominoes that would have needed to fall, have fallen. So why hasn't this happened? And what do you think that says about the situation with Joe Burrow and the Bengals?

I woke up on Monday screaming to myself, which is weird. Why are we not talking? You know what? I messaged you actually. I messaged you. I did. Yeah. Because I feel so bad for you that you're this person in my life now.

I love it. I absolutely love it. I am around anytime. I'm never doing anything. Feel free. Because I can tell you, my husband doesn't want to hear it and my children don't. So I'm like, I'm just going to text Robert this. Why are we not talking about this? The season's about to start. Why would any agent put their quarterback on the field? This is going to be the highest played NFL player in the league. And you're going to roll him out without a deal? We need to talk about this. And after having a bunch of conversations this past week to try to dig on it of where we're at, I can just tell you there is a lot of optimism that this is going to get done

and that it's going to get done before this Cleveland Browns game. I've seen in the past where sometimes there's snags, late, you know, those late hours, but the sense is this is getting done this week. And they should, they should get this done. They need to get this done. They can't take these risks. Look, Joe, it responds to all the questions about it the best way he possibly can. He doesn't care.

He doesn't care because he knows the money's coming. He knows he's getting paid. He knows probably a lot more than we do right now at this point. But the fact that here we are just a few hours out from kick and this isn't done has to be concerning. I even spoke to somebody in CINC, you know, who's well aware of the situation and is watching all of this. that's part of the organization. And he even shot me a message. How is this quarterback not signed yet?

So look, all signs point to this getting done and it should. But the fact that it's taken this long. But I would like to add this. Nick Bosa and Joe Burrow are best friends. They've got the same agent. Maybe they're working together here on this in terms of how they want to announce everything. So we'll see if they can be BFFs this week.

I wanted to ask you, is this, I'm the sticking points, the potential hang-ups, is this just getting to a certain number that's over the Herbert number? Because that feels easy. My assumption is that it might be some sticking points with structure. Because if you look at some of these recent quarterback contracts that have been handed out, notably the Herbert contract and the J1-Herts contract, they're weird. I mean, that is a box that when you open it, there's a lot of stuff happening in there. Herbert's got five option bonuses over his.

It's only a $16 million signing bonus. J.1 Hertz obviously has the huge option bonuses rolling throughout his contract. So is this more about how this is going to get paid out and where the Bengals can have flexibility more than what the final numbers look like? Yeah, the sense I was getting was that. You're correct on the final numbers. It is easy to get over that Herbert number. And when you take a look at the quarterbacks, you see they just bump them up of, I think it was $500,000 between the two, between I guess it was Lamar. to Jefferson.

I'm not sure if I'm exact on that number, but excuse me not Jefferson to Herbert. So yeah, getting to the number is going to be easy. He's got to be probably in that $53 million range and perhaps maybe a little bit more. But this is about giving the Bengals some financial flexibility to be able to get more of their guys locked in. and Burrow has been very transparent and as he should be, he wants to be in, since he wants to win.

And you have to figure that there's going to be something in the structure of this deal that tells us that he may be willing to be fluid in some areas to lock in some of the weapons and some of the guys that he's going to need on the roster in the future. Let's get to one more deal kind of waiting in the wings here. That is the Justin Jefferson contract. You recently went to Minnesota, talked to Justin Jefferson about this. What is your sense for when this might get done between Justin Jefferson and the Vikings and what it might look like when it is? You very rarely walk into an environment where a player is looking to get paid and everyone is telling you the same thing, which is, we want this done.

But he's just that good. He's that good. They understand how special of a player he is. Now, with that being said, again, the Nick Bosa situation now comes into play, right? So you have to figure Bosa reset the market by about 10%. His side of this is going to probably go to Minnesota now and say, okay, we want our receiver to reset the market by 10% here and be making more than that $30 million range. And we expected him to probably make around 31, 32, maybe even 33 coming out of this. But now you have to wonder if that number is going to go up even more depending on.

Now, I think if you were to just ask me, this is not from my report. I think he comes below Bosa. Interesting. I do think he comes beneath it. I do think it's valid. These positions are not obviously valued the same way. So I'm interested to see how this will go knowing that everyone was trying to get this done for Sunday. Right.

So here's another example. We're a few hours away from kickoff on Sunday. And I reported as well that I never got any sense from any side that Justin was going to have, you know, an ear infection on Sunday morning and not be able to shout out T.J. Hockinson. and miss a game. So you can look at this situation that I think is really interesting too, where why would you, if you're his rep, put Justin Jefferson out on the field like we were just discussing Joe Burrow.

Why would you take that chance? And if you're the team, why are you even motivated to get this done? If you know he's going to play and you know he wants a number and you're just going to sit there and go, well, he's the one taking all the risk, we're not. You know, so when you, that's why this one actually, to me, became the most interesting next deal. Joe's is easy.

Burroughs is easy. It's like, we know this is happening. It's just going to be a matter of how they want to announce it, the marketing of all of it. I'm sure a couple little other little details. This one now, I think, is going to tell us a lot. And I don't know if it's going to be as clean perhaps as I was, as I thought it was going to be. have to wonder how they're approaching this now that the Bosa deal is done.

I understand they're different positions, but if I'm just Justin Jefferson's representation, I'm walking in and saying, you got the number now. He's the best non-quarterback in the NFL. We'd like him to be paid like the best non-quarterback in the NFL. And that's where I'd start. I don't know if it settles there, but it's not as if Tyree kills 30 million and Aaron Donald's 31 are in different stratospheres. I mean, they're right in spitting distance one another.

So I think it's a totally reasonable stance to say, my client plays a premium position and he is the best non-quarterback in football, we would like him to be paid accordingly. And that probably cost the Vikings about $3 million a year compared to if they had done this in June. Will he have the resolve, though, going back to Bosa? That's a good point. Will Justin Jefferson have that stomach for this? Because everything that you know about him and everything that people have seen from him,

he's as authentic as he comes to cry. He is like that in person. He is loved in Minnesota. His teammates love this guy because of this high character. Is he going to want to miss games because of this contract? And, you know, I just, you have to, I was going to say, you have to feel for some of these clubs. I don't feel for anyone. But I'm looking at all this and, you know, rising ties lift all boats.

And I'm, this boasts situation has really made every general manager's life hell this week. last thing I want to ask you before we get out of here, Travis Kelsey and Cooper Cup, when can we expect to see each of them back on the field with dealing with the injuries they currently are handling right now? Travis Kelsey is still questionable for tonight. He doesn't miss games. Everything seems to point to a chance here,

that there is a chance. I haven't spoken to anyone who's ruled them out, who said there's no shot. If anything, it's been the opposite of what we're going to see. he's going to go through some testing and they're going to see how he feels before the game. But I think that's a really good sign. This is a guy who was dealing with ridiculous back spasms last year. I don't even know how he was able to walk and he was out there on the field.

So we will see, but also, you know, we do have to keep in mind. It is only week one. We'll see how the chiefs will manage that if they'd be willing to perhaps maybe hold him back a bit, knowing they've got a long season ahead, most likely. And the Cooper Cup, the Cooper Cup situation is making me very nervous by the day. You know, I think we've all dove in on the word specialist from all different angles, probably most applying it to our own lives. You get a specialist, it's probably not good.

So he went out to Minnesota and Shaw McVeigh revealed that they're not only looking at maybe this being a long-term issue that involves the muscle, but perhaps the nerves. in that area. I spoke with some people that were around Cooper the day that he re-injured that calf muscle or the leg. And apparently he's not a player that curses a lot. He's not one of the big cursors in the world. And he let out a really big one screaming on the field,

just out of frustration. And the people that had seen it had shared with me that that's when they knew, this isn't good. This isn't something. This isn't a little tweak. So I think this is one of those things that we're going to see, unfortunately, be a more long-term injury than something that's going to be a day-to-day. Like it's kind of been painted so far. And unfortunately for them, he is so central to their offense in a way that really

almost no other receiver outside of Justin Jefferson potentially is. And imagining what this offense looks like, even with a healthy Matthew Stafford, if Cooper Cup isn't on the field, it could be a really, really long year for this team. Yeah, I don't know what that offense is without Cooper Cup. this, Sean McVeigh may want to start giving Fox and ESPN a call now. Not that I'm counting him out.

I think he can get the best out of his guys. And look, maybe he looks at it as, I got the best out of my guys. Oh, wait, I am good at this, right? Like, why would I step away from coaching? We just won with these guys, you know, we just won a few games with this roster.

Maybe coaching is my calling. but I think he's been pretty incredibly open about how challenging this has all been. So I think they're up for another tough year. It's not going to get any easier without Cooper Cup. Diana Rossini, thank you very much. A reminder every week on Tuesdays. We will be streaming our show with me and Diana live on YouTube, 2 p.m. Eastern. That is where you can catch these sorts of conversations for the rest of the NFL season,

your weekly download of news and information straight from Diana. Really appreciate the time. very excited to keep this going throughout the year. No wait. Thanks, guys. All right, guys. That's all we got for today. Thank you to Nate. Thank you to Diana for their time. Really, really appreciate it. We will be back on YouTube after Chiefs Lions.

Those are the two teams playing tonight. If you are listening to this on Friday, we'll still be available on YouTube if you want to listen to the recap. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you guys listening. We will be back on Sunday night, live on YouTube as we are every single week, the same way we were last year. Those shows will be available as podcasts. But if you want to come hang out with us Sunday night after the week one games,

highly encourage you to do that. In the meantime, enjoy Chiefs Lions. Enjoy your weekend. And we will talk to you guys soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.