The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 1 picks, predicting end-of-year awards, Super Bowl & more mini-contests with Nate Tice & Sheil Kapadia

Episode Date: September 10, 2021

We're kicking off our weekly Friday Fun here on the Athletic Football Show with our first Mini-Contest of the year as Sheil Kapadia and Nate Tice go head-to-head in a winner-take-all battle for the ages. Who will come out on top in the picks game at the end of the season? Place your bets now! Plus the guys predict MVP, Super Bowl winners, Coach of the Year and more as week 1 finally arrives. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today is Friday, September 10th. I'm Robert Mays. Really excited about today's show. We're going to do awards today. And just so you guys know, we're not cheating. We're recording this on Thursday afternoon.

So this is before the first game kicks off. This is still actionable information. We live in a world where betting is at your fingertips. You don't have to put a ticket in before the season starts. So these odds may shift slightly after. the Bucks Cowboys game tonight, but for the most part, you're still going to be able to put your money on some of this stuff. If you didn't know, we're doing awards and preseason picks today, and to help me do that, my good friends, Nate Tice and Shooka Pottia, guys, thank you much

for doing this. I really appreciate it. Yeah, thanks for having us on. I think that might be the longest, most entertaining pre-show I've had on this. So that's, I cannot wait to do this show every week now, if that's just going to be what our pre-show is. Like, this is going to be great. Well, yeah, I think everybody's reached the point where you've just been firing off takes for like weeks now. You know, like, you fire one off on August 14th and now the season's here and you're like, that was stupid. But I've been saying this for three weeks. Like, I can't back down now. So I think that's what this podcast is going to be about.

Just let it fucking ride. No one cares at this point. My brain is mush. Like, it's hilarious that we get to the season. I'm like, I'm done. I can't do anything else. But that's where we are. So for people who do not know, if you haven't been paying attention to the updates on our schedule and

how we're going to handle year two of the athletic football show every Friday. We're going to start Fridays with a Friday five with me and Nate. We're going to dig into five things, a matchup, a game, whatever, leaving it open for a reason to preview the weekend. After we finish that up, Sheila's going to join us, and we are going to do picks every single week. Those two guys are going to do picks. I am not going to because that has been troubling for me.

When I did the podcast with Barwell, we had a lot of the week every single week. I missed it like 12 weeks in a row. And it's not like you had to pick all the games. It was the one you felt best about. And I missed it for like the entire season. I'm never doing this again. So you guys, we're going to throw you to the wolves with that. Here's how we're going to structure it.

Every single week, we're going to do what we're going to call a mini contest. I don't know if that's a trademark infringement. We'll figure that out later. I'm sure I'll hear from somebody's lawyers. Instead of picking five games like you do in some other betting situations in the world, we're going to pick three. every single game has one point associated with it. We're going to tally up the points over the course of the year.

Each week, you can designate one game, if you so choose, as your lukewarm lock of the week. On this show, we don't have stone cold locks. We have lukewarm locks. If you get it right, you get three points. If you get it wrong, you have a point deducted from your total, and we're going to make you do something embarrassing. If all of this sounds contrived and too complicated, trust me, we understand. But that's how we're going to do it every single week. I am very, very excited about this.

I'm so excited for you guys to get all of these wrong all of the time. That's, yeah, I know. That's what our designated lukewarm lock, too. It's like, I'm actually more worried about that every week, like actually utilizing it. Like the punishment that we come up with is actually might be more of a deterrent than even the point system because I know I might be in negatives anyways or at least low, like those negative ones might put me in the negative.

Like that might actually just really keep me away from that lukewarm law. This has definitely added a stress to my life that's on, you know, usually like Wednesday night I turn in my picks column on the athletic and I'm like, all right, I'm good for the week. Last night I spent like an hour. Well, which three picks am I going to send maze? And then I send them to them. And I go, these are the stupidest three.

Why did you pick these three games? You idiot. What are you doing? So yeah, it's a nice little wrinkle to the 2021 season for me. Yeah. So obviously, we're going into week. one here. So we're going to do three picks. We're also going to do a weekly player prop. We're not going to do that today because we have awards. So we're going to do tons of player props.

We're going to pick award winners today and some of our long shot favorites for each of the major NFL awards. But let's start with our picks against the spread from week one. She'll, why don't you kick us off? What is your first pick that you want to go with this week? Yeah, again, these are really terrible picks. So listen, I hope we're not in need. I think you would agree with this. We don't want to be middle of the pack. Like, I don't want to hover around 500. I either want to be good or I want to suck and you can fade me and it's week six, go against shield every time. All right, here's the one and I can't believe I'm starting with this team. But, you know, I like to go with the home dogs, especially early in the season.

This is not a team I am bullish on for the year, but it's a pretty big line. And I'm going with the fighting Dan Campbell's and the Detroit Lions at plus seven and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Listen, the 49ers are a better team. There's no doubt about it. But I think the lion's strength can be on the lines of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And so we know they're going to be conservative. We know they're not going to be chucking it 35 times a game.

So just like run the ball a little bit, you know, maybe the 49ers are smelling themselves a little bit to start the season, a garbage time touchdown. You know, Dan Campbell, give me like six shots of espresso and all-time motivational speech, headbut every player. Like, if there's any time where that's going to work, it would be week one where they're like, all right, let's go. We're ready for this. So, you know, in terms of the, like, scale of how much are you going to regret your pick

at, like, 2.30 Eastern Time on Sunday afternoon, I would say this one's probably up there. But, you know, that's the pick that I sent in, the Detroit Lions to kick this thing off. I've been doing this for 10 minutes, and it's already off the rails. She'll just pick the team. I'm looking at their depth chart right now. Khalif Raymond is listed as a starting wide receiver for your fighting highly underrated, I've always said. He tucked me into the pick and out of the pick.

In one segment, like, I was like, yeah, all right, fighting Dan Campbell's, let's do it. And then I was, I was like way off of it by the time he finished. I was like, okay, I'm way off. That's a game I'm avoiding. But okay, I actually get it. I get what you're saying too. It's seven and a half's a lot. That's past the touchdown mark.

That's always a big deal too. It's like and also like you just made a point is the Lions might be in a conservative game. You have 49ers might be trying some funky stuff with the quarterbacks. We don't know exactly. But, you know, they also are a run heavy team. They're both boot heavy teams. Anthony wins one little segment of being a coordinator was with the bills. So we're calling plays a lot of boot stuff with Tyra Taylor.

So it's like might be a game that has a short. It's a shortened game. so that seven and a half it might be, you know, they 40-9ers might run away with it, but they only win by four or seven. Mays is disgusted. Look at his face. Disgusted.

It's like the off-brand. It's like the off-brand version of that offense. It's like something you buy in an alley that's spelled wrong is what the version of that offense is going to look like. What's Ford's like knockoff version or like budget version? Like that's what it is. Nate, you cannot do any worse, which is your first one? I couldn't pick him to win the NFC.

north on our show, but I can pick them in week one. And I'm going to go with the Vikings minus three against the Bengals. And this is one of those that I am betting for a team and against the Bengals at the same time. I just think the Bengals just what they're going through. We discussed on our show, Robert, as many people know, is that we in that show is that, you know, they might be just. A lot of Bengals fans made sure to let us know about their feelings about their team. And, and, but again, I think it's, that's a young team. It's a team that even on optimistic view, it's going to be a while before that I think it's their final form, which just makes sense. I think the Vikings just, they held a lot of guys out during camp, so they're going to look

uglier than they really should. I think they're maybe they're not the greatest team in the world, but I think they're interesting team. And it's a team that, hey, it still has Mike Zimmer that can maybe take advantage of those empty sets that we've talked about with the Bengals. They just got to get to third down. I think they can handle their offensive line. We talked about how much we like the Vikings front seven or at least the front.

You know, and they don't really, yeah, T. against Tyler Boyd and Jemar Chase are talented, but it's not truly threatening over a whole course of a game. Like they might not, they might be put in bad situations over and over and over third and 12s, blitzes, Rupert has to get the ball out. So I just think it's a game that Vikings should handle even if it's on the road, week one. One of the biggest mysteries to me in the entire NFL is what the Vikings front looks like

heading into this season. And I think that going against that Bengals offensive line, it's one of the more intriguing matchups of week one. I'm sure I will say that about every single team playing against. any other team heading into week one because I just can't wait to watch real football. I can't wait. Sheel, what's your second one, buddy? Well, if anyone had any doubts that the Capadia curse is a real thing,

I sent these into you last night. And a few hours ago, the team that I'm about to pick lost Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters, it sounds like, to significant injuries in like back-to-back plays, right, at practice. So they've had a cursed summer. But I've got the Ravens. I think it's actually down now to minus four on bed-mGM. Monday night against the Raiders. I just look at the Ravens.

In the last four openers, week one, they've outscored their opponents 164 to 19. They haven't given up more than 10 points in any of those games. Now, listen, that could all change this year. They've had a terrible summer, but I just kind of have faith

in the infrastructure there. You know, I know with all the injuries, but can't you see just John Harbaugh, like getting them ready to play, it adds sort of in us against the world, nobody believes in us type mentality. And I'm not buying, I'm not going to buy the Raiders defense

until they show it to me for a prolonged period of time. And, you know, the Ravens defense, even with Marcus Peters gone, they have some cornerback depth. So I think they're more talented. I think they'll be ready to go playing with an edge. I usually don't like taking the road favorites, but I've got the Ravens there at minus four. Do you talk about an early test for a defense with a ton of turnover?

I mean, having to prepare for the Ravens as your week one opponent and all of those moving parts, And that's going to be a huge test of just pure discipline with Gus Bradley and that unit with all of those just new players, new faces, guys getting used to their surrounding. So again, something to watch, which I will say about every single game. Nate, your second pick here, buddy. Yeah, and this is a game that I'm excited to watch. Wow. This is, I am going with a home favorite.

And it's a minus three, the Tennessee Titans over the Arizona Cardinals. And I just think this, this is a game that we're not doing this right now. now, but it might be an overbet as well, because I just think these are teams that match up very well against one another, as far as offensively, especially the Titans against, I mean, really, any offensive receiving core going against Arizona Cardinals corners has going to have an advantage most likely. But especially so when you have Julio Jones and AJ Brown. But even having said that, that's just the passing game. I think the Titans run game and what they're going to try and do, probably a lot of split zone or just a lot of stuff that, a lot of eye candy that's going to get the line. Beckers moving. Zavin Collins and Isaiah Simmons both are super talented, but they're very, very young and they play with bad eyes right now. They're going to be good players. I really do

think that, but it's going to be a minute. It might not be until week 10. That's why it's week one. That's what we're betting this week one. But I just think the Titans offense matches up so well against the Cardinals defense, even with the front with JJ Watt up there. And then I think on the flip side, it's just, I think, yeah, the quick game of stuff is really going to be as threatening with the Cardinal stuff and the Titans defense. I think it's kind of, I really don't know what to make of that matchup because we don't know so much about the Titans defense. So that one's a little more curious about, but really I'm betting on the Titans' offense in this game.

We talked about X factors for each team during the division previews. To me, Todd Downing is one of the X factors of this season. I mean, you think about all the talent that they have there. And one of the things that really kind of jumped on me when I was going back through last year's Titans team, all of their injuries at tackle and to still be a top five offense having to deal with all of that turnover at that position. is just such a testament to the way that Arthur Smith, the reactor was like, we're just going to play in Max Protect.

We have two receivers and a quarterback and a running back and three guards, and we're going to win these games, and we're going to be a top five unit. And their ability to do that was staggering. And now you have even better talent than they arguably had last year. With Luan back, with Julio there, now the question is, do they have the guy that can put it all together? Because they surprised people last year by staving off regression in the way that they did. If they can do it again and they can do it again,

and they can be a top seven offense and that defense and all the money they poured into it and resourced resources they poured into it get that unit to league average can they be kind of the runaway favorite in the aFC south so 100 percent something to watch really excited about that one shield your third game this game's going to go one of two ways and this is jets panthers either sam darnald is going to pick the panthers apart and jets fans are going to rude the day adam gase ever stepped into their lives you said pick the panthers part, which is incredible. Or that's not going to happen.

It's going to go the other way. And Zach Wilson is going to tear it up. And Jets fans are going to be like, maybe we could win the AFC East this year. So I don't think there's going to be any in between there. That is going to be a game of extremes. I'm taking the underdogs, the Jets plus five at Carolina. I can't believe I'm starting this segment taking the Jets and the Lions. But here we are.

But, you know, I just look at it. That's a lot of points for light. you know, let's see it from Sam Darnold first. You know, maybe he'll be a different guy with Joe Brady in that offense with those weapons. I have questions about their offensive line. So if I'm looking at quarterback versus defensive coordinator, I know the Jets have a lot of holes on defense, but, you know, I think you guys mentioned it recently.

Robert Sala, the job he did last year with such a banged-up 49ers team and still figuring out ways to do more with less and scheme things up and mess with protections and blitz more and play more quarters. I mean, I feel like he, if he's shown anything, it's, hey, I'm not just going to be static. I'm going to look at my team realistically, the strengths and weaknesses, and coach to that. And so I think the Jets are going to come out and have a strong start at Carolina. I don't know if they're going to win, but that feels more like a field goal game where I'm comfortable taking the points there with the Jets. She'll name me a Jets cornerback.

Well, it's not bless Austin anymore. We know they got rid of him. him. We know Lamar Jackson is on the roster, I believe, right? Did he make the 53? Yeah, he's not a starter. The duplicate name DBs. They got Michael Carter, Michael Carter and the Lamar Jackson. That's right. They have the other Michael Carter and I do not see Lamar Jackson on the 53 man roster down chart right now. Yeah. Bryce Hall is there. Bryce Hall. That's right. Somebody named Brandon Eccles is Pennsylvania is the other starter right now. I have not kept up. Planted player.

Yeah. With the state of the Jets defensive backs, but that's what we're getting to here. So that's another team you are picking along with a fight in Dan Campbell's. There you go. Your third pick here. You know, what's funny is the Jets. I just pulled it out too. The Jets d'Bs have a Justin Hardy.

There was a Justin Hardy receipt. And they spelled different. The Hardy's spelled different. H-A-R-D-E-E. That's great. They need a whole bunch of jessees in there. But for me, actually, that Jets one was one I had kind of like dotted, but I didn't ended up going with.

And the game I am going with is a home dog. It is the Colts plus three playing against the Seahawks. And it's one that I kind of came late to. There's a couple other games I looked at. Washington was one. But with this game, that's my hedge right there. You hear that?

That was hedging right there. But with that, with the Colts plus three, it's more just the style of game. I think this can be played. I think Seahawks early on the season, and this might be. more anecdotal that maybe their defense lets up. They kind of figure out what they are as the season goes on.

They're an approved. They always talk about it. Their whole team philosophy is about peaking in the fourth quarter. That's just what they are. They kind of get better as the season goes along. Maybe not their offense last year, which is kind of funny. But it's just the Colts, I think what their game plan is with Wentz banged up, he's playing, apparently.

So, but with Nelson banged up and then like just how their defense, defensive front is, I know they have the issue at left tackle, but I don't think any of the Seahawks really scares them in that way. And I think just the Colts game plan is going to be very run heavy, very, you know, play action heavy. You can't really boot much with a guy with a bump foot guy. But just a game plan that's going to shorten the game and merely just maybe just play, they're going to play like a nickel and dime game. Like, you know, a lot of singles and doubles.

They're playing small ball. I think that's just what their game plan is going to be. So I just think it's one. They're at home, raucous crowd. I just think that's a game that I just see it be an ugly little fist fight type of game. And also, spoilers, one of my guys I'm really high on this year, Jonathan Taylor, a game where he's going to really be featured heavily throughout. Yeah, they, I think they're pretty comfortable with where Wence is physically right now.

And I think they believed even when that happened that he was going to be ready for week one and ready to go. And obviously there have been some setbacks with the COVID stuff. But he's hopefully going to be fairly close to 100% if not there. And I think it's just a matter of how all the pieces fit together. You know, this is the bet that that team may. and the bet that the Panthers made on Darnold. I wrote about it today for the athletic, just why they decided it was worth it and what the plan was for fixing those guys. And it's a fascinating experiment.

I mean, the idea of taking a guy out of one set of circumstances and dropping him into an entirely different set and just seeing what happens, it speaks to what surroundings can do for a quarterback. And it's one of the most intriguing things about the league and what it says about what you surround quarterbacks with and how much that causes them to succeed or fail. all right let's get to the awards we're just going to do the normal ones all the ones you can find these odds on betmgm obviously betmgm is where you want to be doing all of this let's get this started with offensive rookie of the year

Nate why don't you kick us off who is your offensive rookie of the year my head is telling me Trevor Lawrence but my heart is telling me tray lance and with yeah and I think I like the price that he's at he's at plus 750 and actually went up from, I originally bet him a few months ago at plus 550, so I'm a little ticked off about this. But now it's at plus 750. And I just think with Tray Lance, even with early in the season, if they're trying to figure out what it is, I think where the 49ers are going to be as a team this season, even if I know the NFC West is just a battle, but they're going to be a such a good team.

I really do think that that Tray Lance is going to be in a prominent position, put in a position to succeed. And I'm not really a guy that's going to go, oh, this happened one time before. but, you know, Kyle Shanahan had had a rookie quarterback before and had, I mean, several times afterwards, but there's one I'm thinking of, RG3 that like he is not going to put him, he puts him position to succeed. That's like one of the best things he does as a coach. So I just, I could see him and just having the counting stats. So then the people that are only focused on fantasy, they'll just see, oh, he has eight rushing

touchdowns. Just, I could just see that narrative unfolding before my eyes. And so that's my, that's my heart bet, uh, is, uh, Tray Lance at plus 750. It just feels like it's going to be a matter of whether he gets in the game. I mean, if he plays 12 games, is that enough? Probably. If he plays 10, then it becomes a little bit more difficult. And that's why I'm going with Lawrence just because he's going to be there from day one.

I think that he's going to look really good. He's going to be in such a prominent position. He's the number one overall pick. Even some of the skill position players who are drafted high in this year's draft, outside of like Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, a lot of them are in backup roles right now. Like Trey Serman and Javante Williams and even like Jemar Chases struggle. so far, who knows how many touches Jalen Waddle was going to get in a Dolphins' offense where they have a decent amount of pass catchers. So I just think that Lawrence, even at that price, has the clearest path to being a full-time starter and somebody with a lot of exposure all season in a way some of these guys don't.

Sheila, who's yours? Yeah, among the quarterbacks, I do like Lance the most because I think his ceiling is the highest. And he's got the narrative like Nate pointed out. I mean, if he's, you know, taken off for 40-yard runs and even if he plays 9, 10 games, and they're in the playoffs and these other quarterbacks are putting up counting stats, but their teams suck. Like I think Lance is going to get the nod. But the guy I went,

because I'm not sure that any of those quarterbacks are going to be that great statistically. And if Lance doesn't get in there in the first half of the season, then he's going to have a tough time. So I went with Kyle Pitts, you know, at plus 1100 because he's going to have the opportunity. I mean, you know, he's probably their number two pass catcher there. He's got an offensive coordinator that we believe in that can scheme things up. And he's got a competent to above average quarterback there. just the opportunities are going to be there.

Now, historically, tight ends, it's really tough. I mean, you look at it. Evan Ingram, I think, had, what, 7, 800 yards, and that's, like, the highest in the last 10 years. If you go back 20 years, I think it was Jeremy Shockey, and he had, like, 8, 900 yards. So it's kind of weird. You're like, well, his best rookie tight end season

in history and play for Kyle Pitts, and it's like, well, 17 games, opportunity, you got taken fourth, you know, they have big plans for him. So it's got, you know, I hate to set the expectations that high when normally it's just tough for tight ends to come in.

and make a difference. But I do think the situation is so good for him that he could end up being the exception. However the first play in the third preseason game, they finally played up. They just ran a naked bootleg to him sliding across, did his play 20-yard explosive play. And then they like had him block the next two plays.

They're like, all right, we're good. We're good. Get him out. Get him out. And but like that's what he's going to get. You're going to see so many of those, him just barreling up the sideline on those. And even though it's a simpler play,

how freaky he does it isn't extraordinary. Like he is a one. percenter, like just, I mean, just as far as talent-wise, because it's just like how quickly he gets up field and they can just run guys over. It's exceptional. I just think that calling him a tight end is going to be really muddy all year. How many snaps he spends as an inline tight end? I would, I love, I'm going to love to see it because I think he's going to be truly their number two receiver. He'll be outside. He'll be in the slot. Getting him as a tight end, it almost feels like it's misleading at this point. All right, let's get to some favorite long shots

for offensive rookie of the year. Nate, why don't you throw us your, I'm going to go and we mentioned this. We're talking about some of those guys that you're in backup roles. And mine is Michael Carter, the running back for the Jets. And this is me kind of betting on my draft profile of him a little bit because, but I watched him this preseason and man, he was still like to me, he was the one that flashed the most. And Johnson did as well.

But and we already know what Taven Coleman is, you know, and Tavin, unfortunately, gets banged up. You know, it's just, what that's kind of his history as being a runnerback in the NFL. So I see Michael Carter just like, I liked him. I like this fit. That's an offense that can produce a lot of yards. And for a running back, we have seen it a million times, a Shanahan running back just all of a sudden just popping,

some nobody, some six-rounder, some undrafted free agent. Michael Carter has talent. He's a fourth-round pick. But I just really can see that narrative unfolding, and that's going to be a big point of this is the narratives unfolding.

And I could just see him having those counting stats and where maybe no one else emerges. It's like, oh, let's pick the running back with X amount of yards and go with there. It's 50 to 1. It's plus 5,000. I mean, I'm not going crazy here, guys. I had a similar thought that I think is a little bit more realistic in the sense of workload.

Javante Williams was my pick at 25 to 1. If he ends up taking that job by week three and that offense is better than we think it is, and the defense is great, and they're a borderline playoff team, and they're in the national conversation a little bit more. They seem to love him. I mean, everything they've said about him. Vic Fangio is saying nice things about a rookie offensive player. As a defensive-minded head coach, that's all you need.

need to know. So that was my favorite one that were a little longer odds. How about you? I had Javante Williams too. You spelled it out. I mean, they're going to try to win with a great defense and an offense that doesn't screw it up. And like, you know, that that means running the football a lot. And I think he's a talented player. So yeah, I went with him. Nothing else to say there. The most telling thing for a rookie quarterback is they, or rookie running back is they had him in on third down pass protecting. And he did a great job. So it's like, yeah, that's probably that's probably all Fangio noticed. He did not care about any running the ball. He was just

like, oh, he protect, oh, good, good. He knew his assignment. Like, that's all that mattered. All right, Sheal, how about defensive rookie year? Who's your actual pick? I went with Odafei Owey of the Baltimore Ravens. Wow. Long shot.

Let's go double long shot on this one, you know? I mean, they need him to play, right? He's definitely going to have a role there. He's plus 2,200. He's got a defensive coordinator who knows how to scheme up one-on-ones, who's going to blitz a ton, you know? And so he's going to be, they need him to, to generate pass rush.

And just the, I hate to draw too many conclusions from like two days of being at a team's training camp, but it would just like, okay, I can see how you would scout this guy in person and be like, yeah, we'll figure it out. I don't need to see like his college stats. And so, you know, I think that defense, that pass rush is actually going to be good. I know there are questions about whether they're going to be able to come through. But Callais Campbell, Justin Houston, and if O.A. is like a solid rookie, I know it's hard to come in and be impactful right away.

But I think he's in a good situation there where they can kind of. of unlock his athleticism. And I think it's something like eight of the last 10 years. It's a front seven player who wins that award. So it's harder to come in and play corner and have a bunch of interceptions or whatever that people would notice. So just among the pass rushers, he was one that I liked. That makes sense.

My question is how many snaps is he going to play? Because they typically have those guys on the extended development plan as young past rushers in Baltimore. But they also don't spend first round picks on them. You know, these are guys, whether it's Zadarius Smith, Matt Judon, these are players typically pick a little bit later in drafts, and they almost have apprenticeships in their rookie season as they expand their roles. Will he be a little bit different?

Will they say from day one, you're going to be, you know, a 600 snap guy as a rookie? I think that would be what would hold him back in my mind. Sure. Nate, who'd you go with? Oh, man, this was kind of tough for me because it's like, I didn't really like. It was chalk. The two guys I liked were the two favorites. And one of them is Quitty Pay.

And I have a plus 900. And what I like about him is, I've mentioned him a couple of times on the show is just that I think he's a guy that's going to be a better pro than college player, just simply from schematic reasons. And on a defensive front where he doesn't have to be the guy, he's got a guy named DeForest Buckner lined up next to him on all those third downs. I think he can get some counting stats. And I think he'll be put in situations where they're in tight games and he can just, you know, flash a couple times because that's the type of player he is. you had some moments during the preseason you know that and that's it's just really it's just trying to find a price here that's actually why the oh like pick actually made sense to me away because it was like

I get it because especially in the second half of year for him it's like he might ascend after the buy week kind of guy and like the narrative might be informed by then but pays my pick it's one of those that I wish I got a better price on by still like it at plus 900 and it might be just one where I I think he could be a good sack guy in the pros I had the same pick just because of workload. He's going to be a day one starter for them. And guys like Owey, Rousseau, even Jalen Phillips, how much are they going to be

a part of a rotation? Where with the Colts, they're really relying on him as part of their past rush. And like Sheal mentioned, front seven players, easiest route to this. So I just feel like among the front seven players, he's going to be the guy that is a day one starter and has a chance to be, I don't know,

eight sacks, nine sacks as a rookie. I mean, Chase Young won it last year. It's not like he was putting a 15 sacks. He was a second overall pick, which makes him a little bit more visible. I do love Michael Parsons as an option. I just think that if he just is a monster from day one and he's doing all this stuff and he's on the most visible team in America, maybe that happens. But I think that pay at that price is really interesting to me.

Shia, who's your favorite long shot? I've got Joe Tryon. I guess you've already picked one, but do you have a bigger long shot? Yeah, let's go with another one. Joe Tryon plus 3,000. Again, the snaps are really the question with him. But, you know, you have Shaq Barrett. You have Jason Pierre, Paul.

If you're a rotational rusher, I trust the defensive coordinator. I trust the defense. Your team's going to be in the spotlight. It seems like they're just raving about him all summer. And then if one of those guys gets injured and all of a sudden you're in there and you're playing, you know, all these past rushing snaps, he was a productive college player, great athlete, like the scheme fit. And so at plus 3,000, I kind of like him as one of my sort of favorite overall long shot

bets, actually. He feels like one of those guys that could have the best press rush productivity in the entire league as a rookie, but only plays like 200 snaps. So it'll probably be more than that. But just because they play those guys so much. And I wonder if they're going to rotate them more now that he's there. But they love to play 80% of the snaps when it comes to Barrett and JPP. So how that shakes out, definitely worth watching. Nate, how about you?

God. It was hard finally, a long shot that made sense. Just like you guys already mentioned, it's hard to win a corner to win. it's hard for a non first rounder to win like the only it was a whole bunch of i think in the last 20 years there was like three second rounders one they're all inside linebackers it was like you know like it's so it's hard to find that kind of arch type and like who got drafted this year if we're just looking at it that way so i i even though this is the long shot like because my other like long shot was plus 1400 which is like what the hell Nate so i went with a i went with a he just got nuts

as a starter today which is great is as a sante samuel junior at plus 4 000 and that and that's just one that i just kind of makes sense where We're talking about narratives. We're talking about scheme fit. We're talking about a ball player. Like he is a fun player. The only knock on him was really size. A lot of people liked him.

It was just a classic player that we've talked about. It's just one of those guys that sticks that like does shit better in the pros. Because they're like you get the question marks, but you love the player. And I could just see him day one, again, put into a good situation there in L.A. And just like, you know, just being a really fun story. And he has a name that people recognize, you know. You could see him in the Darius Williams role right now. I mean, they don't need these big hulking corners in that system because they don't play press coverage.

So, Darius Williams had four picks last year as an undersized corner in that system. You can instantly imagine it. That's why he's my pick too. I mean, if there's a world where in that defense, he just has five interceptions and takes one of them back for a touchdown for a team that we're talking about a lot because they're better than we think they're going to be. So I think that's a really interesting pick. I had the same answer for many of the same reasons. Well, he's going to win the box score, too.

You know, he has a chance to with if you're just like end of the year. I don't know how these guys played interceptions. PbU is okay. Yeah, he led, you know, all rookies and those. Yeah, he's like that. Yeah, you can see it happening. All right. Come back player of the year.

Nate, who you got? Man, uh, my, my chalk favorite, I got, it's not really chalk. It's Sequin Barkley at plus 800. And this is a box score. There's a narrative. It's in New York. Uh, but it's also just the player. Uh, he's a hell of a player.

It's a position. that's easy to vote for it's running back it's not like oh god we're voting for vote for this or voting for some mid quarterback or something because he could just he's going to get the stats he's I think he's the benefit of being very athletic is you also come back from injuries a lot quicker than most people so I am betting on that a little bit even though he has been banged up but I just that is what I'm betting on is that Sequin Barkley just hits the ground running literally and figuratively I know Jason Garrett will give him plenty of touches I'm sure it's mandated from the top from everybody in that franchise to give him touches.

So I think he'll find him. So I just, Sequin Berkeley is my pick. Shea who you got? Yeah, I guess a very similar boat is Christian McCaffrey, right? I mean, he's plus 850, Barclays plus 800. But in that offense, I mean, you know, Mike Davis looked pretty good in that offense. And now you're throwing Christian McCaffrey in there.

There are going to be weeks where the ball's going to have to come out quickly where you're just going to be like, all right, you know, let's just get it to him 23 times and sort of see what happened. So I trust Brady in terms of maximizing the. skill position talent. I mean, he absolutely did that last year with DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson. And so now you add McCaffrey to the mix. I think they'll scheme things up for them. I think the fantasy stuff, the box score stuff will all be there. And so, you know, DAC, I guess, is plus 220. So if you were just like, hey, bet your house on who you think is going to win, I think I would go with

Dak. But I mean, plus 220 for a comeback player of the year. It is not really appealing. So I'll go with McAfrey there. I'm going to go with a not appealing choice because he is the quarterback of Dallas Cowboys, who was throwing for 500 yards a game last year, had a famous nationally televised injury, has been on TV constantly over the last six months. They're on hard knocks. He's one of the most visible people in the sport, and I think he's going to play for one of the top five offenses in the league.

So I will be going with Dak Prescott as comeback player of the year. We're good guests, see? We saved that one for you. Yeah, I really appreciate that. Every one of us would have it. long shots for a comeback player of the year. If you're making this bet in real life, give me a call.

If you need somebody to talk to, whatever, we can do this. But long shots for comeback player of the year. I'll go. I'm not quitting on you yet. Terrible hosting job for me. Yeah, you guys say, you know, it's okay.

Nathan, I didn't know we both, we were both polite, we looked at each other, paused, and then I'm just like, somebody's got to take it at some point, you know. Alphabetical order. I'm not quitting on Odell Beckham, Jr.

yet. I mean, 28 years old, I just refuse to believe that this unbelievable talent that I watch with the New York Giants in his first three seasons in the NFL is just poof, gone, can't play anymore. Now, listen, if this happens again, then maybe at this time next year, I'll be like, I'm out on Odell Beckham, Jr. He's absolutely dumb, but, you know, Kevin Stefansky is too smart to not be able to find a way to use this guy in their offense. You know, just looking at their playoff game against the Chiefs earlier today for a piece I'm work on. It's like Rashad Richard Higgins was their leading receiver. It's like, okay, you can find ways to get Odell Beckham Jr. the ball. So hopefully he's healthy. Hopefully he stays healthy. I still

believe he can stretch the field for them. Be a big play threat. I think they'll, they'll certainly target him quite a bit. And he's my pick at plus 2,500. Makes a lot of sense. Nate, who's yours? I went with Cortland Sutton at plus 4,000. And that was not who I thought I was going to go into that picking, but that's who I ended up with. And but I was a big fan of his game last year, going into last year last season. And I think just with more steady quarterback play, he will truly emerge. David Town to receive a court. Everyone's talked about.

That's why they can trade guys. I think he is the number one guy. I think Judy ends up being a super number two. And that's when someone gets healthy. Like that's really just for something. I think he's that true X. It's just the guy get healthy. He was ascending to that.

He's not the greatest route runner in the world, but he is a good, good, player and it's just one of those guys you forget about that you don't need to be the greatest runner in the world you need to be merely decent and you don't exactly and now he's going to get a steady quarterback through for 3,000 yard receivers last year so I know that system's going to be completely different where they're going to run in Denver but at least the guy that can get him the ball but yeah I'm a big fan of his game that's my long shot and honestly if it's like a mid shot I didn't know what to call plus 2,000 was von miller same team but him coming back from injury but that was kind of like a little mid tier one the mid tier one I think makes total sets I mean

that defense if they're the best defense in the NFL. Again, you ride the narratives and see what happens. I'm going with Derwin James. I mean, in that system, the ways that they're going to use him, all the ways that they're going to use him. I mean, can't you just imagine, I don't know when the Chargers first nationally televised game is, but whenever it happens and you just have, you know, Chris Collins worth being, look at, look at all this, look at all the different things that they're doing.

You can just see it. You can see it happen right in front of you. And, I mean, this is a guy that we haven't seen it. like two years. And I just think you forget how talented he is. And by all accounts, he's looked incredible. I almost hope this happens just because I think it would be really fun for the NFL at large to have the best version of that guy back in our lives.

All right. Coach of the year. Nate, why don't you start us off? And it was great because she already gave my bit on it is Robert Sala. And this is great. He already gave exactly what I was about to say. And he's at plus 2000. It's coach of the year is what we,

she already said. It's someone that kind of exceeds your expectations. And, and usually it's a team that's more talented than we assume they get better coaching, which has happened in the past. You can see with the Chargers that could just be getting healthy with Staley. But I can see just Salah. He's a better coach that we've talked about numerous times on the show, better coach than we assumed originally.

I like a lot of their pieces, a lot of their young players. I like the guys they signed like the Corey Davis's of the world. But I love what they're building inside out. even with Zach Wilson, he's going to be exciting that I think he's going to be a high variance player this year. But I can see him leading to some wins on that side too. Just think it's a team that's going to surprise some people about how competitive they are. And if just that little narrow band of time where it's like if they can sneak into a wildcard spot,

I can see people going like, you did a good job with that Jets team, you know, and there goes the vote. Oh, man. If they're a wild card team, he's a lock. I mean, that's because they're overrunners at six wins, six and a half, I think. So I know, that's what, if you, if they can get a wild card spot, he absolutely would be in the running for it. I just think that's a long, long way off. If you look at it, the last person to win that award that didn't win 11 games was the 2009 Bengals with Marvin Lewis. 10 is even hard to get there.

So that's, I liked Sal when I was looking at it, but it's like, oh, man, if they go 9 and 8, like he's probably not going to win it. So that's my only concern there. I went with Brandon Staley, who's the betting favorite, which seems crazy, but we know how this award goes. Like we just mentioned, it's about overachieving. It's about doing better than we think you're going to do. And if you were a terrible team the year before, that's typically how you win this award. So they're picking, what was their pick last year? They're picking 13th, right?

Yeah, because they win a couple of random games near the end. So they're an objectively bad team, and I think they absolutely are in the running to be a wildcard team. So even if there's not a lot of value there, when I was shocked to see that he was the favorite, I still think that it makes a lot of sense. There's a reason that there is some money on him. All right. Shia, what do you got? This is great. I mean, you know, I thought I was cursing the Chargers or jinxing them.

I'm just going to play. I played the podcast we did. May's picked Derwin James and Brandon Staley back. It was him. It wasn't me. Trust me. I'm not done yet, by the way. I'm not done.

I know my co-host. I'm going to go with that, you know, I think it's sort of the NFC version of what Staley could be, and that's Arthur Smith. The odds are a little bit better plus 1,600, but I don't think that was a well-coached team last year. I certainly don't love their talent, but could they sneak into the playoffs? Could they win nine or ten games? I think I have them actually as my last wild card team in my prediction. So, yeah, I think they can sort of outperform their talent a little bit. They're a staff that should be able to do more with less with both him and Dean P's

on the defensive side of the ball. So I just have him. You know, I think they'll maximize the talent. I think they'll be competitive. And you look for the team that made a big leap from one year to the next year. Last year, they were one and eight in one score game. So they weren't as bad as their record indicated. But if you're just going by record, you're going to say, wow, they made a pretty big leap.

So that that's what I've got. Nice. I have no idea what to make of that team. If you told me they won seven games, you told me they won 12 games, I would believe either one. I just think that the defense is such a wild card. I mean, they have no talent. They have no defensive talent whatsoever. By design.

They're tearing it down on that side of the ball. It's not an indictment of what they're building over there. You have to do that at some point when you were in this very strange middle ground of we pushed all our chips in, but we're not a contender. And they've had to navigate that. But Matt Ryan is still there. And I like Arthur Smith and Cal Ridley and Kyle Pitts. It's just like, I don't know. I have no idea.

There's so many different ways that could go. And that's why I think that's a really good pick. All right. Let's get to the long shots. Nate, who is your long shot for coach of? the year. Okay. If you don't like Salah plus 2000, I'm going to go with Mike Zimmer at plus 3,000. And and Simon, I could just see that almost like a redemption tour, you know, like that. That's what it is. It's like a big comeback tour. It's like a comeback coach award.

But that's kind of what it would be for him. And it's just, again, this is a big narrative award. But for that for me, it would almost be, it just have to be that narrow band of time that there are narrow multiverse that the Vikings just everything breaks right for him this year. The old corners play well. Some of their other guys hit. Amir Smith, Marcette returns three kicks for touchdowns. You know, just things like that that'll help them out. But that's what, but you know, there's more of a middle tier, but that's just my, Mike Zimmer at plus 3,000 would be, be another one.

If you're bad on coach in the year, come on. It's like, this is just spin the wheel on this. Zimmer is, you know, I'm convinced Zimmer is just going to unleash hell on the rest of the league. I mean, this is a guy who even when he's like 11 and 3, he's pissed at everybody. And now he's pissed at his own. team. He's pissed at his quarterback. He's finally got defensive players. Like, you know, I know I went all in on that defense being good. And I feel even every time I see a Zimmer interview, I'm like, this guy

has probably slept like three hours the entire offseason. He's going to be drawing up blitz schemes that the world has never seen before. So I like that. Like, it's a weird thing to say. It's one of the things I'm most excited for this year is just like Zimmer taking out everything he's mad about on opposing quarterback. So I like that pick. I think I scared Mays there with that. I was so excited. I absolutely love the fact that you pick them to be the best defense in the league. It is my favorite scorching take that I've heard the entire out-off off-season.

It's totally in play. I completely understand how you arrived at that point. I also could just see them being a disaster. I could just see them completely falling apart. I talked with Mike Zimmer for 10 minutes when I was there. He is just throwing fireballs, right? now. Like it was, I, I was like, it was this incredible combination of being really scared, but also very excited about the conversation that we were happening. I was really toe in the line.

Like, he is in a mode right now that I truly respect. All right. Yeah. Shield, who's yours? You know, I'm not bullish on this team, actually, but just when you look at the odds and I don't know if this counts as a big long shot, but I'm going with Sean Payton at plus 2,500, just because I think there's such a direct path there. I mean, if you lose Drew Brees and, you, you know, you rehabilitate James Winston's career and make the playoffs, you probably, you know, you deserve it. That would be an unbelievable. I feel like people are like, oh, yeah, you know, that's going to happen. I'm like, this is going to be really, really hard, especially without Michael Thomas for whatever

the first six games of the season. And then, of course, you know, they're playing away from New Orleans to start the year. So that's one of those things where, you know, you can really talk yourself into it pretty easily. We're normally those coaches who have been in the league for a while, they've got to do something especially spectacular to be. be in the mix, but like, you know, this would be it, right? Taking James Winston if he plays well, if you make the playoffs, it's right there. So I went with Peyton.

I had the exact same pick for the exact same reason. I mean, you can hear the narrative unfolding if that offense is really good with Winston. So I think it makes total sense to me. All right. Let's get to offensive player of the year. Easily the weirdest award that is handed out in the NFL in any given season. I still don't understand what it is supposed to be. I don't think they do either.

Sheal, who is your pick for offense player of the year? Yeah, it was like stressful going through these names because I'm just crossing out all the quarterbacks. I'm like, I don't think they, you know, they don't win this award unless they throw for like 6,000 yards or something. So I'll just repeat the one I had earlier, which is Christian McCaffrey. You know, he could just put up monster numbers, you know, all purpose yards from, from, from scrimmage.

He could be easily be over 2,000 and maybe the Panthers end up being like a sneaky competitive team and, you know, he's winning fantasy leagues for everybody. So that's really what this, that's what this should be renamed. Is who, you know, who won you the most fantasy leagues? Like, you know, lean into it. That's what it is. So I went with McCaffrey. I love that.

And I think we absolutely should rename that. We have to petition the league to make that happen. Nate, what's your pick? It was great. You guys kind of covered my points in the coach of the year, actually. And my offensive player is Alvin Kamara at plus 2000. Oh, yeah. I just just exactly the points you guys laid out.

I could just how the Saints, how I think they're building their offense and their team is they're going behind their best unit, the offense align. And they're just going to go, hey, we're going to pound the rock. We're on play action with James Winston.

And we're going to just, you know, it's old school. It's a bombs away. And it's going to be just real fun, really awesome run game. And I can just see Kamara being the beneficiary that. They cut Latavius Murray.

That might be a cap thing and they might bring him out. I don't know what they're doing with that. But he's a third down back anyways. They've kind of weaned him out unless Camaro's been hurt. Just kind of can see. it, you know, we have no idea how you anoint this award. But if that narrative where the saints, you know, go marching on and have a good year, like I could just really see him being a beneficiary of that if he puts up big stats.

I had a pick for this and now I'm going to change it because I realized that the way that I did it didn't really make sense. I'm going to go with Devante Adams. I think that the Packers absolutely could just be a supernova on offense again. You know, obviously the Bakhtiari thing is a question mark. They have Elton Jenkins there. We've talked about it. I think they'll be able to piece that line together. I think that Rogers mitigates the impact of a rookie center

and how much it would typically affect an offense. And I just think they're locked in. I mean, Devante is saying yesterday, like, this is the hungriest team I've ever been around. Sometimes I think that shit's real. Yeah. Like, if you get on the doorstep and you lose, I think that's why it's so, so hard to repeat.

All the luck that you need to make it happen, but also just human nature. And I think this team is so set up. to just be really, really good on both sides of the ball, and they have the motivation and that, like, maybe this is the last ride kind of feel to them. So among the skill position players, I think that's my favorite one,

for a reason that will become clear in a second when we pick some other awards. All right. Sheila, your favorite long shot. I was debating between a couple here. Let's go with the big long shot and say, Terry McLaren at plus 8,000. I mean, could he lead the league in receiving yards?

I think he certainly could. He's going to get so many opportunities. Curtis Samuel's injured already. Who else are they throwing the ball to? Ryan Fitzpatrick, as everybody knows, is not going to be checking that bad boy down on third and seven. You know, he's going to be giving him opportunities. And I've just loved McLaurin since, you know, he entered the league.

And right away, you could tell kind of in the first month, six weeks, whatever, that this guy is really talented. Let's get him some good quarterback play. And I think this could be the year that he gets it. So if he leads the league in receiving yards, you would think whoever does this, that would at least be in play for this award. So plus 8,000 is kind of juicy. I totally agree. It's a great thinking. I went with the same tiers of players. I couldn't really pick between AJ Brown and DK and Metcalf, like either one of them for the exact same reason. Like I think that

in this category, there's some juicy long shots. Like if some of these guys are up at plus 200, like at plus 2,000, I think Brown and Metcalf being down there at plus 8,000 doesn't really make a lot of lot of sense. Like, I don't think they have four times less likely of a chance to win this award than Devante Adams does because I, for the exactly like you said, they could easily lead the league in receiving yards, both of them. So I really like both of those as an option. C.D. Lambs also 66 to 1, similar thinking, even though the odds are not quite as good,

but I love all of those. The odds are nuts for this. I mean, Tassum Hill is plus 3,500. Chris Carson, who I love Chris Carson, is plus 4,000, but D.K. is plus 8,000? I don't know. I mean, they know what they're doing. I don't, but it seems weird.

If you're feeling weird today and want to put a bunch of money down on DK. McCaff to an offense player of the year, we encourage you to do so. All right, Nate, what you got? I love it. Mine are as juicy as plus 8,000. I'm like, oh, man, I feel like a coward right now. My quote-unquote long shots is I actually plus 3,000 both of them. It's Jonathan Taylor and Calvin Ridley.

You are such a coward. This is just a shameless choice by you. I know, I know, but it's like, I mean, but I can't see a narrative or I'm like, Rahim Mousart gets offensive player the year. It's going to be Trey Lance, you know, like what I mean? Like, it's like if that you got to lean that way. But I think with Jonathan Taylor is just, I mean, it all just makes sense. The Colts ride him to the playoffs and he just goes for Gaga.

I mean, just has so many yards and so many counting stats and people are like, we got to give him something, you know, even if it's not the sexiest team in the world. I can see that narrative happening. I know it's plus 3,000. I know you guys just maybe. I was like, man, I was liking this bet. And now I'm like, God, is there like a 10,000 I can one up you guys on? Robert Woods.

Can we go Chris Godwin? I'm trying to see what the last guy is on the car here. If you want Tyrod Taylor, let me count those zeros plus 50,000, you know, if you're, that's, that's the last guy on my car. And all seriousness, Derek Carr at plus 15,000 isn't like the craziest bet in the world. I mean, compared to some of these of Tassam Hills at what, plus 3,500? Like that one's nuts. What? Cole Commet has the same odds as Jalen Waddle and Justin Fields?

Really? Yes, I do not understand anything about this. All right. That's awesome. Let's get to our next one here. Nate, who is your pick for defensive player of the year? I, if, okay, chalk is Aaron Donald plus 5,500. I do think the voter fatigue is a real thing.

I'm going to go with my non-Donald pick is Nick Bosa plus 1,400. And that is just Nick Bosa, just continuing where he left off as just from 2019 being like, I mean, basically one of the MVP's of the Super Bowl and then week one last year against the Cardinals, like they can literally not block them for the entire game. So I thought that was going to be his year.

Why else to be a comeback player of the year award for just throwing those around again? But at plus 1400s, Nick Bosa, just defensive player at year, just see it a fresh take, fresh name for people to vote on. And just being on a team like we talked, it's in the spotlight.

It's a national team. big big fan base 49ers it's a guy people recognize the name they're like oh joey's brother nick nick the guy from the super bowl is that the one with the chargers but it's like that just helps people know the name a little bit so i'm gonna go with nick bosa because i'm a punchline at this point in a caricature of myself i'm gonna go with the other bosa and another charger in our thing here i if you look at the defensive players in this defense and what they've been able to do think about what calil mac did when vick fans you got to chicago think what aaron donald did last Aaron Donald's going to be there any year.

But I just think that Brandon Staley is going to do everything he can consistently to scheme up one-on-ones for Nick Bosa. Or excuse me, for Joey Bosa. I mean, it's not out of the question to me for Joey Bosa to have the type of season where he has like 18 to 20 sacks. And if that happens, you can easily see it. I mean, this is a guy on a per snap basis who is still arguably the best pass rusher in the entire NFL. Yeah. So I, to me, that's a pretty good price. I mean, three and a half times less likely than, you know, three and a half times less likely than,

Miles Garrett. Like, I think that's pretty good, actually. This is the bet I like the most to go over was this one, was defensive player of the year. Like I actually had a lot of takes on this one. Oh, I had the hardest time. I had the hardest time with this one because it's like Donald Garrett or T.J. Y, yeah, one of them is probably going to win defensive player the year, but the odds

aren't fun. If I'm looking at that next year, could Khalil Mack have like a, hey, remember me kind of year? I mean, I don't know. Their corners aren't good enough. I was like, I don't know their corners aren't good enough. is their defense going to be good enough. But I sort of feel like he's in that stage of his career

where it's like, hey, I'm still really good. You're not mentioning me with the top pass rushers. Maybe they scheme some more stuff up for him. I don't know. That was just one that kind of stood out where I'm like, this guy's really still, you know, a really good player. Could he just get a little bit luckier

with some of the sack stats or whatever? Yeah. Did you have a long shot that you liked, Jill? Yeah, the long shot, who I think we've talked about here, it's still at the same price on BetMGM. I don't know how Brian Burns. Brian birds. Plus 12,500.

You know, you mentioned the Vikings take I had. The one I was too afraid to say, but kind of felt was that this Panthers defense can be like a top 10 unit. Like all these players who they've drafted over the last two years, I mean, they have so many avenues for young guy, young like freak show athletes to get better. You know, maybe Derek Brown, Brian Burns, maybe J.C. Horn, C. Jeremy Chin. Like, if a couple of those guys all of a sudden, you're saying, wow, these are like all pro. type players, then maybe they could be good. I mean, I still have major questions about them at cornerback, so I wasn't, you know, ready to unleash that take to the masses weeks ago.

It's only for this podcast audience. But, I mean, Burns could easily lead the league in sacks. And if you lease the league in sacks and you have like a top 10 defense, you know, maybe that might be good enough to get him certainly in the conversation. I mean, those odds are crazy. Crazy. They're not. That is shocking to me.

He has the same odds as Kyle Van Nuoy. Yeah. That is absolutely. That's a great one. He was too far down for me to even see him before I made my pick or else that's the one I would have chosen. I had to control F him because I had to find him because I cheated because she had brought him up as like that's one of his best bets. And we messaged him. I was like, yeah, Brian Burns, yeah.

And he was like, yeah, he's still like plus 12.5. I thought they made a mistake or something. Yeah, I know. That's mine as well. But if it's not doing that because I know cheating there and I know that's our favorite, one of our favorite players to talk about Robert is Jayonne Ramsey at plus 4,000. And that is, I actually kind of surprised if there's any corner you're going to bet on. That's the corner I'd bet on for defensive player the year. And it's at 4,000.

He is known now as he's got enough narrative with him, especially after last year, as the corner. Like he's taking the title belt and he has the title belt right now. People know that. People watching ESPN know that. People just watching any of it. They go, oh, I think I know Jaylon Ramsey is. He's LA. Like, okay, people know that.

So that is enough in the public mind that he is that type of name and his playbacks. set up. And if the Rams have a fun year, like, ooh, I could just see him ascending where people are like, well, Aaron Donald's good, but check out his teammate. It's the fun kind of in wrestling, the smark pick a little bit. But no, it's good. Jalen Ramsey had plus 4,000. I went with Jair Alexander, not dissimilar thinking. You know, if they use him in the same sort of way as that the Rams used Jalen Ramsey last year, if he's got, you know, eight interceptions and that defense is better than people expect, I just think he's so, so talented. And there's a way in a world where they kind of catch a wave just overall as a team.

I always like to think about the stuff as like who's going to dominate the season. Like what are the stories of this season? And if the Packers end up becoming one of those stories of the season and he's their best defensive player, 50 to 1 might be pretty good. All right. Let's get to the big one here. MVP, Sheel, who you got? Yeah, I mean, again, if I'm just, hey, you know, my house is on the line that I'm going

to go with Patrick Mahomes. But let's go a little bit down the list a little bit. and say Tom Brady. I mean, really last year, he throws for 40 touchdowns when in the middle of a pandemic, he switches teams, they don't find themselves to what, late November, early December. No quarterback his age has ever started more than six games. If they're the number one seat in the NFC, entirely possible, and they're my pick to be the number one team in the NFC, and he throws for, you know, 45 touchdowns,

and it's just amazing statistically, and he's doing it at this age. You know, it's kind of like when sort of the legendary players reach this stage and you want to give them one more that, hey, you know, we appreciate kind of what you've done and we still see what you're doing. He would be, he's kind of the pick that's a little bit further down the board than a guy like Mahomes. That's love it. I picked a guy with the exact same odds. I went with Josh Allen. And it's the reason I didn't go with Stefan Diggs as offensive player of the year because that probably wouldn't happen. I just think that offense, again, you talk about owning the season.

they could just be just a freight train. I mean, if you think about just how good he was last year, and if they even take another step forward, I know that it was like kind of a sneaking, like little chirpy voice in the back of my mind, like, do they take a step back? And I think they might just not. I think they might just be that good and that dynamic on offense,

and he just might be that talented of a quarterback. And, you know, if they're a team that goes 13 and 4 and is the number one seed in the AFC and the defense is better than we think, you need to be one of the best offenses in the league or the best teams in the league to do this. You need a historically before when there were two guys

you needed a first round buy you need to win your division. All of that stuff and I just think the bills are going to be that sort of team similar to talking about the Packers and that edge where like we got so close. The bills are the same thing to me in the AFC. So I just think that Alan has a really

good chance to being one of the guys this year and we've seen Mahomes win it before. Obviously it's been a year but I think that matters. When you're one of the new guys on the block, I think that helps you in this case. Nate, who you got? Yeah, like she'll say,

if I was begging my house, it would be Mahomes. But like even Mahomes is going to be the leader for the next decade unless someone else goes supernova. And honestly, a guy I think could go supernova this year is DAC. And he's love it. Yeah,

plus 1,600. I mean, first off, plays for the Cowboys done there. But it's also just statistically, the games are going to be playing in. It's high profile. Got hard knocks.

You just got all. all that. He was my second pick in the in the quarterback draft, you know, most importantly. So, Dak is your end game, but he's not going to win comeback player of the year. So that's the thing. That is actually why I didn't pick him comeback player of the year because I can see vote. I can see award.

I can see award. We can't. Okay. That's the constellation award. Yeah. All right. I tied them together. I have thinking with this.

Kind of. All right. But no. But also the other thing, too, is that it was such a good point that has to be one of the best teams in the league. Okay. The argument against is, is the Cowboys going to be the best team in the league? No.

I mean, even if most optimistic view, but they're going to be very competitive. I do think that. And I think the comparison that you have to make for them is more Matt Ryan and the Shanean year in 2016, where they went 11 to 5, very competitive, but we're an all-time offense. And honestly, the Cowboys, they have a path to be one of those top, top elite elite tier offenses this year. And it's the Cowboys.

And everyone's going to be watching. So there's, that's why Dex is my pick. And I also just privately and just watching them on film, he's just one of my favorite players are watching the NFL. So that makes my heart feel a little better. All right, long shots. This was tough. I really didn't have any that were interesting to me. Nate, do you have any long shots that stuck out to you for MVP? Not really. We are, we joked about before the show like all the like, there's no long shots like Russell Wilson's plus 2000. Like, you know, like that's, I couldn't get past that like Justin Herbert or I probably just stole it from you, but Justin Herbert plus 22 hundred.

That's not even a long shot. Herbert 22 to 1. It's like that's not a value anymore. Even if you thought, like maybe there's a world where he becomes the guy and he takes that same leap that everyone else did. But now at 22 to 1, that's not a value at any point. And then the other thing you're voting for, I think with the long shot, this is the one I did say, would be if Aaron Donald just went, had a ballistic year or that like you're just, you're betting that they go, hey, we're going defensive player. Offenses are taking over the league and we're going to go for defense this year. You know, that's just like one narrative pick I can do. And that's plus 12,500. So that, that, we're 12,500.

So that's the only one I'd even do. That's a long shot. Shia, what do you got? Yeah, I mean, yeah, once you get to the big numbers, I mean, it's hard. You know, I do think Russell Wilson, though, at plus 2000 is sort of interesting. I know they're not crazy odds, but, you know, we know that if Russell Wilson is playing well, that there will be an all-out PR campaign that Russell Wilson should be the MVP. I can tell you that from having covered the Seahawks for two years.

They have the E. If you look at the BEDMGM projected wind totals, the Seahawks. have the easiest schedule in the NFL, which you wouldn't think because they're in the NFC West. But man, if they win that division, the hardest division in football, and he, you know, his supporting cast, I was trying to think if this is like off, just offensively, the best supporting cast he's ever had, you know, if they're healthy. D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler Lockett, that offensive line out on paper, like you compare it to some of the elite offenses, you're like, well, no, I don't think so. But if you look at kind of who he's had in some of these years,

so I think it's possible that he has, you know, sometimes that franchise and that, uh, you know, Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, they like thrive in chaos sometimes. I know not in that second Super Bowl, but sometimes they're just like, we need the, you know, we need to have a blow up in the offseason where the quarterback is handing in,

you know, a list of teams he wants to trade for where everyone thinks that if this doesn't work, one of us is gone. You know, they kind of just use that and are like, all right, let's go. We'll have a top five efficiency offense. We'll go win 11 games again and we'll win the division. And so, you know, I think he's like,

obviously one of the, just one of the most intriguing players in the entire league this year. Yeah. They're only happy when they're unhappy. Right. It's a really good one. And again, the long shot odds for this one is not great.

I'd go with Baker-Mayfield just because I think that team could win 13 games. I mean, I think they have a chance to be really, really good. And again, you just kind of catch that wave. And at 35 to 1, you look at like Ryan Tannell is 35 to 1. Kyra Murray is at 25 to 1. I just think that's decent value. But there aren't a lot of values on the board with this. one. I think that they've kind of game this one pretty well.

All right. Along with the individual awards, we're on the eve of the season here, guys. It's time for Super Bowl picks. I have not thought nearly enough about mine, and we're going to kind of do this flying by the seat of our pants. Shield, who is your Super Bowl pick? And do you have teams that they're going to beat in the conference championship game? I assume that you do. I think that I do. Yeah. I think that I do. You know, I hate going with this pick because no one's going to remember, you know, five months from now. Hey, what a great pick by shield picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl on the athletic football show.

That was awesome. But you know what? Sometimes a second-tier team doesn't scream out to you. And so you can't force it. And so I do feel like this podcast was pretty illustrative of sort of the, like, we barely mention Mahomes. You know, we barely, because everyone's just like, you sort of take the Chiefs for granted. But Patrick Mahomes coming off a Super Bowl in which he was thrown to the ground 10 times. I mean, I talked about Zimmer on leashing hell on opposing quarterbacks.

Like, I mean, that Mahomes could, it's crazy when you think about it. He could deliver an all-time season for a quarterback any year now in the prime of his career. And so I've got the chiefs beating the Packers in the Super Bowl. I think the NFC, you know, I like Green Bay. I like Tampa Bay and the Rams. I think I have the Packers. I want to say beating the, I can't remember if I picked the Rams or the Bucks now that I think of it in the NFC championship. Let's go with the Rams because I don't want to go with a total repeat of last year.

So I'll go Packers beating the Rams in the NFC title game. I just feel like 26 and 6 the last two years. The offense is still there. If Aaron Rogers wants to give the front office the middle finger after every touchdown he throws, that's okay. As long as he's in lockstep with the coaching staff and his teammates, and I think he will be. So AFC, I do think I have a repeat of last year.

You know, I just think the bills, the arrow is pointing up. I think even if that offense regresses, that defense is going to be better than it was a year ago. I kind of trust the infrastructure there with the coach and the GM. And so Chiefs over bills, Packers over Rams, and then Chiefs over Packers in the Super Bowl. I promise next year when we do this, I'm not going chalk. I'll get a little bit more creative.

Nate, who you got? It's hard not to go chalk, though, because I'm going to go with the Chiefs. That's my Super Bowl winner, too. As long as Patrick Mahomes is lining up at quarterback healthy, it is near, not impossible for me to not bet on him. Like, it just, as long as he's there, he's healthy, and they have somewhat of an infrastructure around them,

I'm going to go that way. But as far as my final four, I would have the chiefs. And Bill's would have been my original take, but really, even with the injuries that happened today, it happened an hour before the show, I'm going to go with the Ravens make the final four.

I think Lamar is going to have an FU season. I really do. I do think the receiving help is going to matter as the season goes along. I think it's a team that's going to peak as the season goes along. It really just come along, but they just face the juggernaut that is the, Chiefs. I think on the NFC side, I have the Packers. I have Chiefs Packers in the Super Bowl Final. But I, and the Final Four, my other Final Four team would be the 49ers in a repeat of

the matchup from two years ago. But this time, you know, the Packers would come out on top. And, but I just see the 49ers as another team that's just going to get better as this season goes along, getting guys healthy, figuring out their corner position will of course be important. But I just think that offense is going to be extremely exciting. And I think that defense is going to be a lot, a very disruptive defense that can get hot at the right time. I'm going with the Chargers is my Super Bowl winner. I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.

I'm so excited. Do it, do it. I know. I have to. I'm going with the Packers. You know, we talked about it. You know, if they're just kind of in that mode and I'm, I actually have them beating the bills in the Super Bowl. I like it.

I just, I totally agree with you on the offense point, Nate. If the bills win the AFC championship game against Kansas City, to me, it's like a 38, 35. sort of game. Similar to the Patriots and when they beat Kansas City in Kansas City in that AFC championship game. I still have concerns about the Chiefs defense, man. I think their offenses can be able to put up points in any clip you want to, but they have questions at corner and their defense was not that great last year.

So that to me is what might give the bills the edge. I just think the bills might be really good on defense this year. You have all of those new pieces in the front. And if they can just get one, turn over in that game. And if they're playing it at home, which I think they have a chance to do, if they're just in like full FU mode the entire year. So I would, the bills over the chiefs in the AFC.

And I had the Packers over the 49ers and the NFC in the same way that you did. So. Yeah. Packers over bills. That's what we got. I cannot wait to just be miserably wrong about that. Can't wait. Can't wait for some team.

Some team to just go supernova. We're like, who's that guy? Gentlemen, that's all we got, guys. We have football here in about two hours, which I am very, very excited about. I have to go be a human being and be social for a little bit before that. But after that is over, I get to lock myself in my basement and just watch the NFL, which I cannot wait to do. Guys, this was a lot of fun. We're going to have a lot of fun doing this every week, which we are going to.

So please come back and check us out every single week. Please give both of these guys endless amounts of shit for all the things that they get wrong. I'm sure there will be plenty of chances for you to do that.

Please rate interview the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would really appreciate that. If you have not checked out the division previews, you still can. Today is Friday.

We still have two games until the actual season starts when all of the games are happening. There's tons that you can chew on. We did essentially an 80 to 90 minute preview every single day for the last eight days. So if you guys want to go check, those out. They are extended conversations literally about every single team in the league.

We talked about the Texas for like six minutes. But other than that, there are extended conversations about every other team in the league. Please subscribe to the athletic. I wrote yesterday about Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold. I wrote today about how offenses around the league are going to meet and respond to the growing trend of the Brandon Staley type defenses and what that means for how offenses are going to have to attack them. it was really, really fun to work on. I mean, that's essentially the biggest conversation I had over the last month and a half. So with coaches around the league, I talked to Aaron Rogers, Sean McVey, Kevin Stefanski, Nate Hackett,

the Packers offensive coordinator, you know, tons of different people. I talked to Brandon Staley about it. So hopefully you guys can glean something from that. I truly believe it's one of these stories of the season. And I think a lot of the offensive coaches in the league I talked to agreed. You know, I just said to many of them, man, it just seems like this is like the story schematically of the year. And I got a lot of, I totally agrees.

And that's really fun. It's fun when you start digging into that stuff. And there's that recognition from people who are in it every single day. Jordan Roderig wrote a very similar type of story from kind of the first stage of this. Like, how did this rise happen? And how did Sean McVeigh and Brandon Staley spur each other on? I highly encourage you to check that out, almost as a companion to the one that I have running today. If you're not subscribed to The Athletic.

It's theathletic.com slash football show. I'm telling you, you guys need to get one. The season is here. You cannot follow the league without it. You can read Sheel. You can't read all the other great writers that we have. We will be back on Sunday. Nate and I will be back on Sunday night.

You can catch us live on YouTube. I will be tweeting out the links at some point today on Friday. So please be on the lookout for those. Week one is here, guys. I am very excited about it. I hope you guys are too. We'll talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.

Thank you.