The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 11 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: November 20, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 11 DFS slate. They discuss Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook reaching CMC territory, the Jameis Winston free space, Keenan Allen as the WR1, the lack of meaningful tight ends, and more.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through the slate from a gambling standpoing, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 29:42). Can the Titans bounce back in a tough spot against the Ravens? Can the Jaguars keep things respectable against the undefeated Steelers? Can Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins keep things rolling against the Broncos? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello, everybody, and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast. And, of course, it's Friday. So this is also the Athletic Football Show. Friday, November 20th, one week 11 game in the book, Seahawks and Cardinals. We are here to talk about the 13 other games ahead of us this weekend. I am Michael Beller. Gonna kick things off on a Friday with Derek Van Riper talking some DFS.

DVR. What's up, man? Happy weekend. Happy weekend indeed. Looking forward to a little bit of rest and relaxation here in these next couple of days. How are you doing? Yeah, feeling the same, right? We've got a fun weekend ahead of us with the slate.

And then, of course, right after that, we get into Thanksgiving week. The holidays are hitting us pretty hard now. So happy that we can enjoy them in whatever way. We are enjoying them this year so long as everyone is doing it safely. And this is really a fun weekend to launch us into Thanksgiving week, right? It's fun with Thanksgiving being in the middle of the week. It almost feels like we get two NFL Sundays out of Thanksgiving. We get this first one.

Then we get Thanksgiving Day. And we get the next Sunday, you know, nine days from today. And this is a fun one, Derek. I want to jump right in at the running back position here because we've been waiting for Alvin Camara and Dalvin Cook to get to CMC territory, $9,000 and above. And it's finally happened. Both of them have reached that. They lead the way at the running back position this week.

do you try to get one of these guys into your lineups? I think you do. I think the key is one. I don't think there's quite enough underpriced talent at the other positions to squeeze both in. What's interesting is that I look at the projected ownership numbers from roto grinders each and every week. And there's a big gap from Dalvin Cook, who's supposed to be the most popular running back near 40% usage in tournaments to Elvin Kame. at nearly 10%. And that sort of guides my decision-making, right?

If I'm building a cash game lineup, I'm not really worried about how popular a player is. I think Cook makes sense because the floor is just so crazy high. But I think in a tournament, I might be more inclined to choose Camara, find the extra $200 and move forward with the less popular of the two, even though I think you can reasonably look at Cook and say that he has the higher floor of the two players, now that Michael Thomas is back in that Saints offense. Yeah, I think you're totally right there. And we're excited about James Winston.

We'll talk about it when we get to the quarterback section here. But right now, James Winston leading this Saints offense successfully is just a theory. It's one that we believe in. It's one that I feel very confident in this week against the Falcons. But we can't say it's a fact. And so there's also the slight specter of the bottom dropping out on New Orleans offense. Not entirely, but at least to a point where Alvin Camara doesn't quite live up to the $9,000 price tag in a way that Delvin Cook does.

We know what to expect from Delvin Cook. Vikings are comfortable favorites. Seven points last I saw at home against the Cowboys this week. And after that agonizing game where it took Dalvin Cook 30, 31 carries to get to 95 yards against the bears, it feels like this should swing in the other direction and that he should really be able to get going against the Cowboys defense. When we look down another tier at the running back position, this was where I loved being last week, and it was Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. This week it is Nick Chubb and Miles Sanders.

And Nick Chubbs at 7,000. Miles Sanders is at 6,900. Those are two guys who, if I am going to go away from the Camara Cook pairing and not have either of them, those are the two guys who I look to at least one. And I do think there are ways to get both of them into your lineups. Yeah, I think you could stack them both together. I think Aaron Jones is also in that price range at 7,200, but the Colts defense has been pretty stingy all season. So, There's definitely a high risk, high reward sort of tournament only feel to Aaron Jones this week, whereas most weeks he's the kind of guy I would push out there in cash and not really think twice about it. But I do think the next group down, a couple hundred bucks less than Chubb and Sanders,

that's a good place to be as well. I mean, Mike Davis at 6,800 with a matchup against the Lions, like, that's a great matchup for him. The usage is there consistently. Yeah, he's priced back up where he should be. the only real concern you have is in the event that Teddy Bridgewater doesn't play, do you downgrade the Carolina offense enough to the point where you're not comfortable playing Davis, especially when you have James Connor sitting right there at 6,600? I think James Connor, we talk about him on this show, it feels like every single week

because he's always in this sub 7K range. And he's been more disappointing than great as far as his sort of ceiling games go. this could be that ceiling game. This could be that time that he tops 20 points on draft kings for the first time since week three, given the matchup against the Jags. Yeah, you've got to love that matchup with the Jags of the Cowboys, or the Steelers, excuse me, are 10 and a half point favorites depending on where you look. And even that doesn't feel right to me.

It feels like it's a little light. So I think that that's a guy who you can really get behind in a big way this week. I'm not feeling Mike Davis, man. I really want no part of that, even if it is Teddy Bridgewater starting. and Ian Rappaport threw some cold water on that Thursday afternoon, looking more and more like Teddy Bridgewater is going to get at least one week off because of that knee injury. But we got to go all the way back to week five against the Falcons to find a week where Mike Davis went over 100 yards from scrimmage. In week six against the Bears, he had 55 yards from scrimmage, and that was on 20 touches.

The next week, 36 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches. The week after that, 77 on 14. Then we give him a pass because Christian McCaffrey was back. And then last week, back in the starter's chair, he had 44 yards on 11 touches. It just feels like a guy who needs a touchdown. And I do think he's going to get plenty of volume in this game, whether it is Teddy Bridgewater or PJ Walker or potentially Will Greer. But I just don't really want to trust him. I mean, we talk about those guys who are that $100 more gets you to Miles Sanders.

$200 fewer gets you James Connor. There are too many other guys I like better in that range. So I'm staying away from him. One more guy I want to ask you about is down at that bargain basement, the bottom of the barrel $4,000 price tag. And it's Matt Breda. He got in full practices on Wednesday and Thursday after missing a couple of games with the hamstring injury. I don't think he's going to, let's just assume he plays. I don't think he's pushing Savon Ahmed totally out of the picture.

But I mean, you can't take away what Ahmed has done. But let's just say that Breda never had this injury. He was going to be the guy. He most clearly resembles what Miles Gaskin. brings to the table in Miami's offense. And at $4,000, you don't need him to get 20 touches, right? I mean, if you get Matt Brita at Matt Brita levels that we saw in San Francisco for 12 touches, that can pay off at $4,000. I don't think he's someone who you need total exposure to, but a guy who should be sprinkled into lineups. I like him a bit in that way. Yeah, I mean, he's

interesting at the price. I think it's enough of a split or I'm probably taking more of a wait and see sort of approach and not getting down into that 4K range. I think I'm sort of bottoming out in the low to mid-5,000 range where you've got Duke Johnson at 5,400, you've got Geo Bernard at 5,500, and you've got Cainland Belage at 5,600. And yet, I look at that list of players, and I just think, do I really like any of them? It's more of a hold your nose and get the volume play and kind of hope that the passing down work sort of ticks up and that reception count kind of drives up that floor a little bit. So I'm just curious, do you like any of those guys? or do you feel like it's necessary to play one of them in your lineups this week for cash games?

Or do you think you can find enough elsewhere to stay away from that trio? Because they look like they're going to be somewhat popular. Yeah, I really try to stay away from that trio. And we've played this game a few times this season where it's been players that we haven't necessarily loved purely as players, but we play the pricing game plus the opportunity game, and we hold our nose and put them into our lineups. And that hasn't worked out very often. Think about Alexander Madison, the one game he filled in for Delvin Cook. about Duke Johnson a week ago, right? And there have been some ugly results there. And so I still

retreat back to, I got to really still like the player. And so I can kind of talk myself into Giovanni Bernard because of where I could see this game going for Cincinnati against Washington. But again, I really do come back to the pairing of Nick Chub and Miles Sanders being my favorite way to attack the running back position. And if that's what I'm going to do, I probably Vent can't also afford a mid-five-dollar running back in my flex. So I find myself gravitating, away from those guys. Popular, not popular, whatever. I just don't like the player on the bottom line. Are you in the same vein here? Yeah, similar. And I think Naim Hines kind of falls into this group, too. He's 5,200. I like his matchup quite a bit against the Packers, but I just feel like I have

no good read on Frank Reich's intentions and how he's going to mix and match with that backfield in any given week. I guess I look at Hines as the guy that maybe has the safest floor for now. but if you told me that Jonathan Taylor's role is going to start increasing again, I wouldn't push back on it all that much because I still think he's the most talented back they have. Hines is only viable because he gets passing down opportunities. That's sort of a necessity as you're looking for those cheap running backs on draft kings every week. All right, let's move things over now to the wide receiver position. First guy who jumps out of me, right when I click on wide receiver,

the very first guy who jumps out at me is the, third most expensive guy on the list. Devante Adams, $8,600, still dealing with that injury issue. Julio Jones is $7,500. And then I find myself Keenan Allen, $7,400. We know what the volume has been for him and how he has performed since Justin Herbert has taken over as the starter. But on top of that DVR, this Jets defense has been just absolutely torched by slot receivers. That 169-yard game that Kobe Myers had, I was against the Jets out of slot one of Cole Beasley's 100-yard games on 11 catches. That was against the Jets. Out of the slot. In between, you had the combination of Tyree Kill and McColl Hartman go for more than 180 yards and a couple of touchdowns against the Jets out of the slot. Keenan Allen is going to abuse this

defense. I almost don't care how popular he is. I know he's going to be popular, but I want him in there. I think he's wide receiver one this week. Yeah, I don't have any sort of argument against Alan Given how good that matchup is, I think playing him is a great idea in cash, and it's a very good idea even in tournaments where he's going to be probably the most popular of the expensive receivers, as we'll call them. Jacoby Myers at 4,900 will probably be the most popular receiver overall. We'll talk about cheap options here in just a few minutes. I think the question you need to answer, though, if you do play big field tournaments, if you want to get away from Allen, but you want to stay in that price range, do you go to Julio at 7,500? Do you go to Kelvin Ridley at 7,000? Of course, they both have the matchup against the Saints.

Or do you just try to get away from that group entirely? I know Adam Thielen at 6,300 is a pretty strong value in that price range. Could you get by with a lineup where Thielen is your most expensive and your most chalky receiver and you sort of backfill with 5K receivers the rest of the way? I think you can. And I put both Vikings into our show sheet. You've got Thielen at 6,300, and Justin Jeffers. at 6,000. I was surprised to see both of them be so cheap. I didn't think they were going to be up in the

Keenan Allen range of things, but I thought they would both be at least a few, like I thought Jefferson would be at 63, and Phelan would be at 66, 67, because I think that that's a, you know, a nice spot for these guys, and we talk so often about how skinny the usage tree is in Minnesota. It's Dalvin Cook, Adam Thieland, Justin Jefferson, and that's it. You get a little sprinkle from the tight ends every now and again. I do think you can get by with that, although I am a little interested in Kemp, Calvin Ridley. It does sound like there's really going to be no concern for him with the foot injury that has caused him to miss some time. And he's interesting to me. I love these guys who you're getting at basically one-time prices. If Calvin Ridley comes back, has himself a good game

against New Orleans, you're not going to see him at 7,000 again the rest of the season. So I like guys getting guys like that at one-time prices. So I do think there are other ways that you can go at the wide receiver position if you go away from those guys. And we haven't even mentioned Devante Adams yet, and I know you're worried about the injury, as we should be, but you're not going to be finalizing these lineups until you know for sure on Devante Adams. Actually, that's got a later kickoff, so hopefully you would have some options to move to, but this is a courtesy of Derek Cardi, the last four games that Devante Adams has played in a dome where he will be playing, if he is playing against the Colts.

He had 13 catches for 116 yards against Minnesota, 7 for 93 and a touchdown against Detroit, 14 for 156 and 2 again against Minnesota, 13 for 196 and 2 against Houston. If he plays, there is good reason to make Devante Adams the most expensive player in your lineup and forget about Dalvin Cook and Alvin Camara. Right. I think the other thing you can keep in mind is that Dallas, Minnesota is part of the late window as well. So if you were going to build a lineup where you're looking to spend that 8600 on Devante Adams and you were to get some bad news mid-afternoon, you could reasonably pivot to Delvin Cook and still have an extremely high floor

and high ceiling player replacing him. You just got to think about how you're going to make it work either using Adams in the flex or swapping out and making it a two-for-two sort of adjustment. But at least there's a player in that general tier, both price-wise and performance-wise, who you could pivot to if you want to try and wait and see with Adams on Sunday.

Yeah, that's pretty nice to have that ability to change to high-veillance. player, high value player, regardless of what the position is. You mentioned Jacobi Myers. Let's take a look at guys in that area. Is he your number one guy to go to? I mean, you mentioned that you think he's going to be popular, but do you think that this is someone who is bordering on a must play at that $4,900 price tag? Yeah, I mean, he's projected to be rostered in more than 20% of lineups for tournaments based on the roto grinder's formula. So that's pretty wild, but I think it's justified. I mean, I think if you were setting prices for draft kings, what would the number be

on Jacobi Myers going up against the Texans? I mean, maybe I'm a little less bullish on him than you are. I don't think I could go much higher than this. He had the one monster game against the Jets, as we discussed. Cam Newton is so up and down as a thrower. And last week, so much of his value came from the passing touchdown he had. Otherwise, he had, what, five catches for 59 yards? Like, I'm just not that excited about Jacoby Myers even knowing how good this matchup is with Houston. You're talking 10.9 points on Draft Kings without the passing touchdown. And that was in a monsoon. So, you know, that's a fair point. Those were not optimal passing game conditions. Like, I keep getting stuck on the target totals the two weeks before that, 14 against the Jets in that monster game and even 10 going up against the bills.

That was back when it was 3,500. So maybe I'm a total fish as Sammy Reed and in Davis-Matic. would say, but I think 5,500 would be the number for me on Myers. I think he's a clear number one there. I think he has that rapport with Cam Newton. We've seen double-digit targets twice in the last three weeks. So I totally get it, at least for cash purposes. Now, for a tournament, do you play a guy like that who hasn't proven it over a long run? Probably not. You start looking for some cheap options there. I'm curious to get your thoughts on Michael Pittman. We've talked a lot about him in our shows, 4,500 going up against the Packers, you have to wonder,

does Jire Alexander actually match up against Pittman instead of T.Y. Hilton, because that would significantly change Pittman's outlook for this matchup. I mean, unfortunately, that's unknowable for us, right? But I would really not like Pittman if that were the case, and I would really like him if it weren't the case, because I think that Pittman is a real gamebreaker for the Colts

as we talked about a true playmaker in an offense that is desperate for playmakers, a team that could see. see its whole season changed by having one legit playmaker, game breaker sort of player on the offensive side of the ball just hasn't emerged for them this season. And I do think that Pittman can be that guy. And for that reason, I think that Jire Alexander should be giving him the shadow treatment. I don't think there's any reason to be that afraid of T.Y. Hilton at this stage of his career plus Philip Rivers stage of his career. This is just a total mismatch. This is like when a

pitcher totally pitches away from the way his defense is aligned. They just don't fit together. T.Y. Hilton and Philip Rivers with where they are, do not fit together in a way that should scare defenses. So I would think that that would be the case. But are you willing to risk that with just $4,500 on Michael Pittman? I think the answer to that is yes, not in all of your lineups, but I think there is enough spots to get him involved where you're comfortable running that risk. And if Jair Alexander does shadow him and he gets shut down, so be it. But at $4,500, if he doesn't get shadowed by Jaya Alexander, it could be a huge payoff there.

Yeah, and I just think he's a good pivot for tournaments, a less utilized option, cheaper than Myers, and someone that would pair well in a lineup if you were going to play Devante Adams. You'd want to save some money somewhere else, and you'd want to have exposure going back the other way to that Colts offense. And I'd rather take that shot with Pittman in a tournament than get myself involved with the running backs and the mess that they have been over the course of the season. A bit of a really tough situation for me to figure out is with Andy Dalton back, what's the tournament appeal of the Dallas wide receivers? I mean, C.D. Lamb, I know you love them at 5K. That's a really nice value.

And the Vikings are maybe showing some signs of life defensively, but they're not a defensive matchup that you're going to fear, especially with quality players. And I think Dallas has several of them. I think Lamb is a high-quality player. What do you make of this situation? Yeah, I like Citi. You know that already. I mean, at $5,000, those are some dice that I am very willing to roll. I've said this on a few of our shows, so if you've heard that, apologies for the repeat, but that first start that Andy Dalton had 11 targets for CD Lamb caught seven of them for 64 yards.

I don't think the ceiling that he had with Dak Prescott is there, but I think something approaching the floor, 80% of the floor he had with Dak Prescott. I think that can be there, especially with this team coming out of the buy. Andy Dolan got thrown into the fire against a good Arizona team. Then they go up against that great Washington pass rush. He gets hurt in that game, gets a concussion, misses a game, then goes on the COVID list, misses another game. Like, there's a lot going on here for Andy Dalton.

Now he's over all that. They had the buy to install some new things two weeks since they've played almost a month since Andy Dalton's been out there. I think this is still a bad team, but I think there are better days ahead for the Andy Dalton-led Cowboys. And so I do like getting in on them. There's one guy I want to ask you about before we close the book on wide receivers in the same range of guys.

How about Brandon Cook's and the usage he's been getting for Houston since they fired Bill O'Brien? You go back since then. No game with fewer than eight targets. The production hasn't always been there for him, but the opportunity has four of those five games, at least 60 yards, three of those games, a touchdown. The one game where he came up short of 60 was last week against Cleveland,

and that was another one of the crazy wind games that we've had in Cleveland. Going up against New England, I think this is not a bad spot to get a Brandon cooks into your lineups. Yeah, it's all about that target floor. Absolutely comfortable with him in cash, especially at that price point. I mean, on Draft Kings especially, he's very underpriced. I think on Fandul, he's like 6,100, so he's more like fair where he should go. So no reservations whatsoever about using Cooks. I think he'll probably be paired in a lot of lineups with Jacoby Myers based on some of the things we're seeing right now. I think that role is extremely steady at this point. And I don't think we're looking at New England's secondary this season, the way we've

looked at them in past seasons where they're elite at locking down opposing teams number ones. Plus, in that team, you'd look at Will Fuller as the guy, they'd be more likely to take away since he's the better big play receiver on the field in that Texans offense. Options galore at the wide receiver position, just as usual. Quarterback time, Derek, no Kyler Murray, no Russell Wilson on the main slate. Of course, they played on Thursday night. No Patrick Mahomes on the main slate either, with the Chiefs playing on Sunday night football. Josh Allen and the bills, they've got to buy. Things are thin at the quarterback position. Looking at the position

as a whole with those guys off the board, are you more interested in some way in the more expensive guys because they are not necessarily as far afield from the rest of the position? Or are you still trying to bargain hunt here? It's more of a bargain hunting week for me. I mean, if you're going to spend up, I think Justin Herbert against the Jets kind of stands out as a guy that brings you a big ceiling and he's doing it just under 7K. at 6,800. But we've talked all week about how bad the Falcons defense is. And when I see James Winston at 5,900, especially in cash game lineups, it's really hard for me to click anybody else. I just think this is a setup that is pretty much foolproof. And the way it goes

wrong is Taysam Hill taking red zone snaps and scoring on them. Like it just, it has to be like the perfect storm of James. James getting completely screwed over by the Taysam Hill usage for him to bust in this matchup at that price. I'm with you completely. I mean, I just don't see how you go away from James. I was trying to talk myself into maybe Deshaun Watson at $6,500 and build some lineups around that. I think there's a pivot argument to be made for Tuatung of Iloa down at $5,800. So you do save $100 off of James that Denver defense is not scaring or stopping anyone, really.

and we know that Tua does have the ability to run the ball. But, I mean, James at 5,900, it's just, it's begging to be played. And then to just roll back to a wide receiver really quickly, you've got a $7,300 in Michael Thomas. You've got the cheapest Michael Thomas we've seen in way more than a calendar year. And you can pair those two guys together. You can get the Saints quarterback plus Michael Thomas for a very reasonable combined price. I mean, that is a very nice stack.

And usually we're used to having to pay, what, 16K combined for the Norland's quarterback Michael Thomas stack. And we're getting it for way less than that this week. I mean, it's very, I'm with you. It's very, very hard to get away from James. Yeah, I think you're right, though. Tua as a pivot at 5800 makes sense. And I think part of what we're seeing from Tua is a ceiling that's going to bring him up closer to that 7K range in time. I think I joked last week that the days of him being sub 6K might have been ending.

And they're not far away from ending. So enjoy it while you can. I think the other range of player I'm looking at is the low 6,000s where you have Kirk Cousins at 6,200. And it comes down to your faith in Andy Dalton and his ability to breed some life into the Cowboys offense. Because if that game were to fall into a shootout, 6,200 for Kirk Cousins with two very good receivers in Thielen and Jefferson, that's very appealing in this matchup.

Yeah, I agree with you totally, again, where you can pair an elite receiver or a very good receiver with a quarterback who, as maligned as he's been, can shoot games out for, what, a little more than $12,000, $12,000, that ain't bad. That definitely isn't bad. But again, I just, any argument that is for someone like this, that is not James Winston, is based on Winston being too popular and wanting to get different, right? I mean, that's where it all has to start. And so I think that's worth something that's worth considering. Yes, this is 100%. Kirk Cousins is 100% for big field tournaments. He is not for cash games. He is not for single entry tournaments.

He is for the giant, everybody throws in a lineup at $3 sort of tournament. And you're trying to turn $3 into $200K sort of lineup, right? That's what I'm thinking about here, just to be as clear about that as possible. because the ceiling usually doesn't look much higher than 24, 25 points. But if this game just turns into more of a back and forth than we expect, and the field is all over Delvin Cook, you're getting a lot of tournament leverage going with a guy that most people just don't like. Kirk Cousins is not a very likable player in general.

But I don't know, that's where my mind was. I'm like, hey, if we're starting to think Dallas's offense is going to wake up, there's a benefit to the opposing quarterback and everybody kind of steers away from him. Absolutely. And again, you can make a very nice even stack with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thieland, and Kirk Cousins, if that is a route that you want to explore. Let's move on over to the tight end position here. I think this week, this main slate does the best possible job of summing up what the tight end position is. Mark Andrews is $4,900 this week. He is the most expensive tight end. And on the main slate, it is just, it's ugly. It's ugly DVR.

Which direction are you going in when you look at this position other than trying to get cheap production, no matter what that cheap production is or who it comes from? I feel like a top 40 DJ just like playing the hits every week in the tight end section where I'm like, oh, I still like Hunter Henry. He can't be. Tony Gonzalez. Oh, here's a nice 2001 Tony Gonzalez. It's just like, I look at Hunter Henry and the usage, he finally snapped that touchdown drought last week,

which got him to 13 from a 4K price point. That worked. I still think he's in another good spot this week and that matchup against the Jets. So I'm fine playing him as a cheaper option off of Andrews. Andrews is probably going to be the most utilized tight end by far because of the price and the way he functions that offense. I mean, even with the up and down nature of the Ravens passing game,

Andrews at least has a pretty steady floor. Noah Fant in that range, also popular and for good reason. I feel like he's fine. but I think you get down to that sub 4K range Dallas Goddard who you brought up last week definitely playable and Austin Hooper who I think I brought up last week he was disappointing just two targets

one catch for 11 yards but that game turned into a weather nightmare and I think that's something that we should kind of remind people we're recording this late Thursday the weather report is absolutely a factor in your decision making process so that would have been a situation where Hooper as a tight end

probably still would have been in my lineups anyway but things can really unravel from Thursday to Sunday morning, especially this time of year with wind, rain, and eventually snow being a bigger part of our forecast. So even though it was disappointing last week, I do think Austin Hooper, at least in tournaments, is a consideration for me at 3,900. Yeah, Hooper and Goddard are the two guys who I'm going to be putting into all my lineups this week. Hooper's 39, as you said, Goddard 3,800. Didn't go well for Goddard last week, but he got six targets, caught four of them for 33 yards, and they're playing one another. So I'm

I'm going to be focused on that game when it comes to the tight end position. And we do need to remember that really with everyone in Cleveland. Their last two games have been significantly impacted by crazy wind. They had that wind game against the Raiders. That was three games ago, three weeks ago. Then they had a buy. And then they had the wind game last week against Houston. So we haven't really even seen Cleveland get to unfurl its passing game in a real way in almost a month here.

So I do think that's something to keep in mind with all of the Browns players. I think the person whose benefit to which it redounds most is Austin Hooper here, getting a larger role in the offense in the passing game without O'Dell Beckham. Let's wrap things up really quickly at defense. It's a position that, frankly, we don't care too much about. I do think that Washington a 2,900 is a nice team to go to if you can afford it, because we have seen that Cincinnati offense get wrecked by good pass rushes, and I think Washington can do it as well.

Otherwise, I'm just trying to go cheap here. It's the song and dance every single week. I think if you had to go on the other side of the Washington matchup, the Bengals are only 2,300. I mean, Alex Smith is generally pretty good at taking care of the football. I just don't like the weapons at his disposal very much. I mean, Terry McLaurin's great. Maybe Logan Thomas at 3,300 should have got to mention in our tight end section.

But even though I don't like the Bengals defense, I like saving as much as I possibly can. The Lions at 2,700 might be playable. Again, try to stay under 3K, spend as little as you can on defense, lean into the variance. There we go. As we say, every week to wrap this up, we're keeping it cheap at the defense position, and that's going to do it for this DFS portion in week 11. Derek, good luck this weekend. Good luck to you. All right, moving on to the gambling portion of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show for Friday, November 20th, week 11, here on the athletes.

Athletic we bring on Vic Taver. Vic, how's it going today? Doing good, man. How you doing? I am also doing good. I'm sorry, man. I'm sorry that we got to take a look back at week 10 because you took some tough losses. It starts right off the bat with Arizona and Buffalo. What makes it even tougher than, obviously, the way that game ended is the fact that by time Sunday rolled around, that might have been a win for you. It was minus two in most spots, minus two and a half even for Arizona. But when we landed on it on 3rd, Thursday afternoon, it was at one and a half. So unfortunately, that goes down as a loss for you. Tennessee, man, at least everyone out there now knows that we're not lying when we say these things, right?

We were so adamant about Tennessee a week ago and we were joking around. Is everyone going to believe us when Tennessee goes and takes care of business against Indy? They definitely are because they did the opposite of taking care of business against Indy. Also had San Fran and Chicago as lost as you were right on those Tampa Bay Buccaneers. three and two a week ago. It was on the other side, the fortunate side of the Hail Murray. So go Cardinals. Also had wins on Miami and Minnesota. Loss is right there with you on Tennessee. And you nailed Cincinnati. You are absolutely right about the Bengals getting wrecked by Pittsburgh's pass rush. So our updated season records, 1930 and one for you, 28, 21, and one for me. I mean, what were you thinking when DeAndre Hopkins comes down with that pass last week?

I think I laughed. I'm still laughing. I mean, I liked all my picks last week. I mean, obviously, one-four is not what you want. But I liked what I did. So I'm going to dust myself off and get back up and go right again. Here we go. Right away in week 11.

Good news is that we do not have a consensus pick on that Tennessee pick a week ago. Our consensus record fell to five and seven for the season. And Vic, I'm sorry, man. I have to bring this up. I'm now 60 and one in our head-to-head matchups. She's got two wins. Again, more laughter. It's all good.

I'm laughing. Arizona over Buffalo, Minnesota, over Chicago. So we do have one head-to-head coming up a little bit later. But I want to start off since we did it. We broke the seal on Thursday night picks a week ago, right? So I'm going to go right back to it. I'll tweet this out too. So it'll be on the record before the game kicks off.

Thursday night football, of course, is Seahawks Cardinals, too. The line, again, week 11 lines consensus from Vegas Insider is Seahawks minus three, even is the minus there, so you don't have to worry about paying any juice. And the over-under is 57. Vic, I'm going right back to them. Arizona Cardinals, they won this first game between these two teams in Arizona. One of the best games of the season, a 37-34 overtime thriller. And I'm going back to Arizona.

A lot of this has to do with the fact that I do like the Cardinals a little bit better. I think they're a slightly better team. I think that they can do a little bit more on both sides of the ball than Seattle can. I don't see any way in which the Seattle defense slows down Kyla Murray and the passing attack of Arizona. And then the other thing that really puts me over the top here is Seattle's offense is still looking good, but just a tick off without Chris Carson. And Chris Carson is inactive once again this week. They do get Carlos Hydeback so they get a little bit of that element that Chris Carson brings to the table,

but still not quite the full Chris Carson here. and that was enough to push me over the edge, give me the Arizona Cardinals here. By the time people are listening to it, we're going to know whether this is right or wrong, but I just want to get on the record, what's your lean in this one? Well, good for you.

I'm going another way, so I like the Seahawks. I think it's a revenge game. I was Russell Wilson and not played well the last two weeks that has to change, but obviously I have no idea what I'm talking about. It comes to the Cardinals, who knows. But yeah, I can see why you would still go back on them.

They're a very exciting team. And it might be an MVP showdown. when I get the MVP award. So we'll see what happens. Yeah, I still want to say that, at least as things stand, that not voting for Patrick Mahomes almost feels like not voting for Michael Jordan

the year that Carl Malone won it over him, it's almost like voters don't want to give it, like they want to do something different, they want to follow some sort of narrative. But these two quarterbacks are definitely in that discussion and worthy of being in that discussion. And we've still got plenty of season left, or one of them could legitimately,

not just narratively, but legitimately, push past where Patrick Mahomes is right now. Let's move over to Sunday and first look at that early window. 1 p.m. Eastern kickoffs. We've got a couple of games here, one to three games where neither of us has a pick, so I'll run through those really quickly. First, Panthers and Lions, we actually don't even really have a reliable line on this game because as of right now, both quarterbacks, both starting quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater are in question, Matthew Stafford because of a thumb injury, Teddy Bridgewater, because of a knee injury. So we could see a number of

different combinations. Could be Chase Daniel versus PJ Walker, could just be one of the backups versus one of the starters. No line on this game. We move on. Browns are minus three, minus 120 on that minus three at home against the Eagles, 47.5. Saints, minus four and a half against the Falcons. We know there will be a backup quarterback starting in that game.

Still no official word from Sean Payton, but all signs point to James Winston getting the starts for the Saints. But no pick from either of us on Panthers Lions, Browns, Eagles, or Saints. Falcons, so we move on to the first game in this early window where one of us does have a pick. And I got to say, Vic, I almost joined you. We were this close to having a consensus pick, Patriots minus two at the Texans. You like the home team, the home dog in the Houston Texans. I do too, not enough to make them one of my five.

What makes you a little bit more confident than me in Houston? Basically, I have no idea how the Patriots won last week against the Ravens. So I think that was a big win for them, obviously. But I've seen the Texans are obviously underachieved this year, but it's still got talent, a quarterback, and a defense makes them play. So I think I'm not sure the Patriots are the better team, which you have to believe if they like this spread. So I'll go with the Texans at home getting the two.

I agree with you. I think that there's an argument to be made that Houston is the better team. And I think the strongest argument to be made is, we don't know who the better team is. But making the Patriots home or road favorites, excuse me, suggest that the odds makers think that the Patriots are the better team, or at least they want the betting public to believe that the Patriots are the better team here. And I don't think anyone can say that with any degree of certainty.

You like the way that this Houston offense has looked ever since the firing of Bill O'Brien getting Brandon Cooks a lot more involved and will fuller everything that he does for this offense. So I'm with you. I like Houston. I'm not quite making it one of my picks, but it is a one that I feel pretty good about this week. next game is the biggest spread on the board. We've got the Pittsburgh Steelers heading to Jacksonville. Minus 10 are the undefeated Steelers in Jacksonville.

46 is the over under Vic. You've got the Jaguars here. Is this a case of it just being too many points? Yeah, I think the Steelers are maybe a little smug at this point. I mean, they're obviously a good team. I'm not sure they're a great team. I know they're undefeated, but I think they've gotten by a couple weeks, gotten lucky.

So the Jags impressed me last week. They ran the ball down to Packers' throats. definitely have a identity now with the Robinson who might make your rookie of the year push year. So the defense has actually not been horrible of late. So I think they've made some strides. The new quarterback seems like he's competent enough to at least cover this spread if not went outright.

If not went outright, is that a little hint to where this upset pick is going? You know, whatever. I'm a wild card now. My record is such that. I'll let it all hang out. I'm firing in every direction. So it won't have to wait and see what happens there. Yeah, we'll get to that when we get to the end of the show.

So next one, Vic, you're just, you're lighting things up here in the early window. Another pick for you. This one is Washington Football's at Home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The footballs are one and a half point favorites. 47 is the over under. You tried to talk me out of it last week with the Bengals. I still went with them. You were right.

I was wrong. Now it is you who is on the Cincinnati Bengals. So why are you buying back in on our boy Joe Burrow here in week 11? Yeah, I took a week off, but now I'm back on. I think he's the guy. I think he's a great quarterback. Obviously, his first year done some great things. This is a good match for him.

I'm not sure how Washington's covered last week. Alex Smith, everyone thinks he's back, but I think he's still pretty bad. So I think it's a huge quarterback edge for the Bengals there at home. I like the number. So everything about it, so I like the Bengals. Yeah, that was a case of classic lionsing that we saw a week ago. That game was 24 to 3, I want to say, before Washington stormed back, scored 21 straight points tied that game at 24.

And then everyone in the world, myself included, who had money on Washington plus four and a half, was saying, just please don't make this guy. We didn't want that last field goal. Just end this game 24, 21. Let us get our money on the plus four and a half and we'll go away happily. Then they get the field goal. And then suddenly become Lions fans. Matt Prater drills the 59-yard field goal to end the game and spare us,

the Washington suddenly losing that cover that they storm. to get in overtime. This is one where I think, I just didn't feel good enough about it because, you know, I mean, these are two teams that I've backed a lot this season. And, you know, you think about the two, the teams that have really wrecked Cincinnati's offense. It's been Pittsburgh and Baltimore, teams that can get after the quarterback that can take advantage and did take advantage of Cincinnati's, just dreadful offensive line.

And Washington's another team that scares me enough that I feel like they could do it. I still want to lean towards Cincinnati, you know, all things being equal. they generally are between these teams. I want to bet on the better quarterback. I want to bet on the better offense. And so that makes me lean towards Cincinnati, but I believe I've been on the Bengals in both of those games against Pittsburgh and against Baltimore and seeing their offensive line just totally fold in the face of a strong passer. So I don't want to get on the train again against this team in Washington. We've got one more game in the early slate. It is those Baltimore Ravens, five and a half point favorites at home against the Titans. I

We'll get back on the record with a pick here, making my second of the week. I feel like, as you guys are listening to this, I'm already sitting at 1 at 0 with what the Cardinals were able to do. So I'm going to jump in and pick the Tennessee Titans, the 5.5 point underdogs on the road here. I think this is a fair line. This doesn't suggest. I feel like the Ravens should be 5.5 point favorites in this. I don't think it's anything like that. I just feel as though the Titans are a little undervalued coming off a really bad performance a week ago.

against the Colts. You think about the difference in time off, right? That was the Thursday night game. The Titans are going to have 10 days to have prepared for this. The Ravens, meanwhile, on a slightly short week, having played the Sunday night game in those monsoon conditions against the Patriots a week ago. So rest is a factor here. And I think we need to stop waiting for the 2019 Ravens' offense to walk through that door. It's just not happening. This is who they are. Still a good team. Still a team that can be very dangerous in the playoffs, but not the hyper-efficient offense that they were a season ago. And that's really what put them over the top. These two teams met in the playoffs last year. It was the Titans pulling off the biggest upset of the playoffs and getting that win over the Ravens.

And the personnel is largely the same. If anything, the Ravens have lost more offensively, especially just losing Ronnie Stanley to injury a couple of weeks ago. So I think that this is a spot where the Titans can, you know, maybe even pull off the victory, but certainly stay within the five and a half point number. I am backing the Titans here. No pick for you, but where do you have this in Vicks' picks in your column this week? Yeah, I'm with you. I think the Titans obviously gave up with 17 points last week on kicking game,

punts, and so I think they're definitely better than that result indicated. So it's a good matchup form. I like, you mentioned Baltimore's kind of a mess right now. They're not really sure what they want to do offensively. So I think it's a good spread for the Titans. There we go. Tennessee Titans will make that unanimous, but just me having a pick as one of our five for the record.

Moving on to the late window, 405 and 425 p.m. kickoffs on Sunday afternoon. We have one game where neither of us has a pick that is Chargers, minus nine and a half against the Jets. We blow right through that to our next game, Miami at Denver. The Dolphins Road Favorites in Denver, three and a half points they are laying. 45 is the over under.

Vic, I am getting right back on that Miami Dolphin train, making them one of my five picks for Week 11. I think that we are still, or not we, because I'm picking them, and we don't set these lines. I think that the odds makers still are not giving this team enough credit for what it has become, and that's just frankly a good team. This is a good team. This is a team that can beat good teams,

I can hang with good teams that deserves to. be road favorites against meh sort of teams like they are in Denver. I mean, look at these last three weeks. They beat the Rams at home, 2817, a game that the defense totally controlled. Then they go to Arizona. They got to win with offense, and they win with offense, rallying back from a touchdown deficit late in the third quarter, scoring the only 10 points in that game in the fourth quarter and winning 3431. Then they come back home.

They face a hot quarterback in Justin Herbert. They make life tough on him, at least as tough as anyone really has. made it, and cruise to a 29-21 victory. And that last touchdown scored by the Chargers was basically a garbage time touchdown to Keenan Allen. That was a game that Miami had well in hand for the entire second half. I mean, you look up and down what they've done this season. I mean, go all the way back to week two when they hung tough with Buffalo, lost 3128.

The very next week, they roll past Jacksonville the week after that. They hang tough with Seattle. And they lose that game only by a touchdown. I mean, this is a team that was hinting at being this sort of playoff contender, really going back to the second half of last season. And I still feel like that is not being reflected in their lines, in what their odds are, certainly in this game at Denver. I feel like with every passing week, we're just going to see a more comfortable to a Tonga Vailoa. But this defense has become really a weapon for them. And I want to pull it up so I credit the right person.

It's a great piece on our site right now. and if you are not a subscriber, the athletic.com slash fantasy football pod. We'll get you a subscription for $1 a week. Ted Winn has a great piece titled How Brian Flores and the Dolphins layer their zero blitzes to confuse offenses, gives you a really good look into what Miami is doing defensively.

So much attention has been paid to Tuatung of Iloa and the offense, but that defense is carrying probably a little bit more weight if we're being honest about it. So check out that piece. I really like the dolphins. Where are you on this game? Yeah, I'm with you. They've covered one.

Five in a row. They won five in a row covered each time. So I think I picked them in my column. Actually, I know I did. And I picked them most week. So this is almost one of my top five. I just couldn't get away from my five-star Jags pick. So this is my sixth pick if I had six.

Okay. So look at that. Our sixth pick, both of us could have made things unanimous because my sixth would have been, or at least a consensus pick. My sixth would have been Houston. Your six would have been Miami. So we're just off the board, just barely. missing a couple of consensus picks this week.

Two more games in the late slate, one where I have a pick, one where you have a pick. I've been talking quite a bit, so we're going to go to the one where you have a pick first. It is on Minnesota and Dallas. Minnesota minus seven at home, minus 120 on that minus seven. 48 is the over under here in Vic. You are going to another dog here buying these Dallas Cowboys coming off the by, getting Andy Dalton back, make the case for the Cowboys. That's probably more a bitter reaction to that,

the loss I had with the bears on Monday night. But I like the Bears should have covered that game. Nick Fools was absolutely horrible. Worse than it has been in the past, which the bar was low. So the Vikings, to me, are a little overrated. Everyone's loving the Vikings right now. I think they're not quite back yet. So I think the Cowboys match up pretty well.

You mentioned the By Week, and they're playing a little better. It's on signs of life. So I think covering the spread is definitely doable for the Cowboys. I worry a little bit about a monster bounceback game from Dalvin Cook after the way the Bears were able just to totally keep him in check a week ago. The Bears, by the way, are the most boring team in the NFL. I mean, hands down. I mean, look at the games they've played, just boring game after boring game after boring game.

But I worry a little bit about that. But I do think there are brighter days ahead for the Dallas offense and maybe getting Andy Dalton after the concussion and being on the COVID list and now having this by and being able to do a little bit more with a couple of weeks off. Feel like there are brighter days ahead. I am with you. I am not making it a pick, but I would lean toward getting it. the touchdown and backing the Cowboys.

Final game in this late window is Colts and Packers, Colts minus one and a half at home against the Packers, 51 and a half over under on this game. And Vic, I guess I'm just not going to learn any lessons when it comes to these Indianapolis Colts because I'm fading them again. Give me the Packers, one of my favorite picks of the week here. What this comes down to, this is the better team. This is just flat out the better team.

You cannot show me any way in which Indianapolis is over. all the better team than Green Bay. I will say this. We are recording this on Thursday afternoon. We just got a good big batch of practice reports, including another one that was bad for Devante Adams. So I would like to reserve a right to change this if Devante Adams does not play and go to Houston in place of Green Bay as my fifth pick, because that obviously changes the game in a big way for the Packers. But I'm just going to assume for the sake of conversation here that Devante Adams is in there. This is an offense that is going to be able to click, click, click, click, click, the way that

they really have all season. And I think that we find an Indianapolis team that can't, you know, totally stifled offenses and win games with their defense. But if they don't do that, I do not like this offense's chance to be able to stay with a team like Green Bay. You mentioned it, right? I mean, a week ago, we were so confident in Tennessee. And that was a game that Tennessee led the entire first half.

Indy did have a couple of long drives that got shut down in the red zone where they had to settle for field goals. But that was a 17-13 game halfway through the third quarter. Then you have the shank punt that gives India a short field. They get in the end zone. Then you have the block punt return for a touchdown. And suddenly, Indy's able to let that pass rush fly. And I just don't see them being able to get into a position like that against Green Bay, against their offense, a line that is going to do a good job protecting Aaron Rogers, made the big investment in David Bakhtiari,

the best offensive linemen in the game last week. I just think that this is going to be a game where we really see who the true Super Bowl contender between these two teams is and who is the one that maybe squeaks their way into the playoffs here. The squeaker is indie. The Super Bowl contender is Green Bay really like the Packers in this one. Where are you at on this? You agree with me or am I a fool once again for fading the Colts?

Somewhere in the middle. I think I've also been anti-Colts most of the year. But when I saw it last week, I definitely have a good defense. I give them that. I also think the last few weeks are doing a better job of getting Nahim Hines involved. I think he's pretty good. So one thing I've seen from the Packers this year is they can't stop the run. They're not very good against the run.

We saw it last week against the Jags. So I think the Colts will be able to control the ball a little bit this game. That's why I'll probably lean towards the Colts. Yeah, that is something that scares me is getting Naim Hines, getting Jonathan Taylor perhaps going for the first time in a couple of weeks. Obviously, we haven't seen too much from him. But Naim Hind is the way that he has become really a bigger weapon for this team, especially last week. Something I do like on the other side of that is that I think we're going to see Jaya Alexander give the shadow treatment to Michael Pittman.

I think Michael Pittman can be a real game breaker and a game changer for this Colts offense. But if Jire Alexander shadows him, I like the Packers in that one-on-one matchup. Let's move on to the Sunday night game. You know, I'll throw the Monday night game out there first just because neither of us is picking it as one of our first. It should be a good one, should be a fun one, a great way to cap the weekend. Really three great primetime games this week. Buccaneers are minus four against the Rams, 48 and a half over under in that game. No pick for us, so we'll throw that one out, and we will end on the Sunday night game

where we do find our one head-to-head play of the week. It is the team you cover the Las Vegas Raiders at home getting the Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch to one team to beat the Chiefs this season. Vegas went on the road, beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. This is the return match in Vegas. Chiefs are minus eight on the road. 57 is the over under. I am backing the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Kansas City Chiefs, you are backing the Raiders who are 1 and 0 against the Chiefs this season. So make the case for the Raiders sweep. Or I guess not the sweep. What am I saying? You're not saying they're going to win. But make the case for the Raiders stand within what is a pretty big number at eight points in this one. Yeah, numbers moved up. because of they have obviously these defensive guys from missing practice because of the COVID close contact stuff.

But to me, it's all about their offense. Their offense, I think, is one of the better ones in the league. They should be able to run the ball against the Chiefs and get Darren Waller going and play action afterwards. And Henry Ruggs hurt the Chiefs last time. So I think there's enough weapons on offense to keep this game close. All right. I'm going to admit straight up right off the bat. I might be buying a little bit too much into Narrative Street on this game.

But we've heard so much about the victory lap heard. around the state of Missouri with the Raiders circling arrowhead. The chief's not happy about that. And then you factor in, like, is there a worst team for your entire starting defense to not be able to practice for an entire week to play than the Kansas City Chiefs? I know these teams see each other. They've already seen each other earlier this season, but it just feels like a dangerous recipe going up against the Kansas City Chief's team that has made no secret about the fact

that they are out for a measure of revenge. in this game. And being out for a measure of revenge, I mean, it's fun for us to joke about and talk about. That goes right out the window once the game starts. I fully admit that, but I do like a Chiefs team that is even more motivated than usual that can probably, for all intents and purposes, put to bed the AFC West with a win in this game. And I think they go ahead and do it comfortably. So we've got one more head-to-head pick for this week. It is right here with the Chiefs. And the Raiders, let's wrap things up with a look back at our week 11 selections.

We'll go with you here first, Vic, in chronological order of when these games are taking place. You've got the Texans. Again, they are plus two at home against the Patriots. Jaguars, plus 10 at home against the Steelers. A little bit of a theme for you here, Vic. The Bengals, plus one and a half. They are on the road in D.C.

taken on the footballs. Cowboys, they are plus seven. I'm just realizing this on the road in Minnesota against the Vikings. And the Raiders. Plus eight, a five pack of underdogs from Vic Taffer Raiders. Plus eight, they are also at home. So three home dogs against the Chiefs. I have got the Cardinals.

Hopefully I want to know as you are listening to my voice here. Cardinals, they are plus three in Seattle, taken on the Seahawks. Titans, they are plus five and a half against the Ravens, the Dolphins, three and a half point favorites in Denver taken on the Broncos. Packers, one and a half point dogs against the Colts. And then, of course, the other side of that Sunday night matchup, give me the Chiefs minus eight in Las Vegas. Taken on the Raiders, it is upset time.

Vic, who you got on the upset line this week? Well, yeah, I picked all dogs, and the biggest dog is going to win the game outright. They got the Jags. There's a stout. I forgot what it was, but the Steelers are really bad historically the last three or four years has road favorites.

So I think the game will be close. I think the Jaggs have their running game. I think they have enough on defense to make some plays. So I'm going for the crazy upset, and the Steelers end their perfect season. I mean, they're not. going to 16 and no. This team, you're right in that they have, you know, they are, God, I was going to say they're an unimpressive 9-0, but that's maybe would have been the most

ridiculous thing I've ever said on a podcast. How do you be an unimpressive 9-0? But they have not necessarily blown teams away. They're going to lose at some point. I don't know if this is the point, but I like the balls on the prediction. So you've got the Jaguars pulling off the upset against the Steelers. I want to say the Cardinals, I think they end up sweeping the Seahawks and taking a hold of the NFC West on Thursday night. But since that game's already been played by time people are listening to this, I'll throw another one out there. You know, when I was talking about Titans and Ravens,

I sort of talked myself into it. I wasn't going to pick that. I was just picking them to cover the 5 and a half. But as I got going, it felt kind of good. So give me the Titans. As my upset pick, I think they bounced back from a week ago and get a win over the Baltimore Ravens. So that's it.

How you feel? Speaking of bouncing back, I think this is going to be a good week for us. And we haven't had a totally unbridled success week for both of us yet this season in any one week. How are you feeling going into this week? I think we're going to do it. Every gambler says it and sounds bad, but we are definitely due, especially me. So I'm going with the word do philosophy this weekend.

All right, there we go. And hey, since we only have the one head-to-head game, so there is definitely a 9-1 in play here for us. So fingers crossed that it's 9-1. And if it is 9-1, we hope all of you out there are following us this weekend. And that's going to do it for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and The Athletic Football Show. One more time, a $1 per week subscription to The Athletic can be yours at theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod. For Derek Van Riper, for Vic Tafer, I am Michael Beller. We will be back with you next week right here at this time talking week 12.

Until then, thanks for listening. Have a great weekend and enjoy all of the Week 11 action. This was the Athletic Football Show.