The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 11 Hangover — The Rams' and Browns' respective futures, Kenny Pickett check-in, Bills and Bengals take care of business

Episode Date: November 22, 2022

Robert Mays and Mike Sando put a bow on Week 11 with the Monday Hangover. The guys discuss futures for the Rams and Browns, and the Bills and Bengals doing what they needed to on Sunday. They also check in on Kenny Pickett, who had arguably the best game of his rookie season to date.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube3:23 What does the future hold for the Rams?23:18 The future in Cleveland37:24 A taking-care-of-business week for the Bills43:42 Nice week for Kenny Pickett53:59 Bengals do what they have to in Pittsburgh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's The Athletic Zone, Mike Sando. Mike, how you doing, man? I'm doing well. Happy Thanksgiving week to you. It is Thanksgiving week.

We are deep into the season. Thanksgiving is always a nice little moment. I feel like we kind of need that Thanksgiving when you're about two-thirds of the way through the year, which we are. For those of you guys who did not listen to the Week 11 recap show, just a quick bit of housekeeping. you and Randy are going to be coming to us on Wednesday this week with a Thanksgiving preview on the football GM.

Make sure you guys check that out. If you guys have not been listening to the football GM, you really should. I've been loving all of the episodes. Last week was great. Randy has such a great ability to talk about the interpersonal dynamics of certain situations and also the team building ones. His insights on the Raiders and Derek Carr's press conference last week and all that kind of stuff. It's just a combination of things you really can't get anywhere else. So that's just a small aside, but you guys should really be listening to the football GM.

And you can do that this week on Wednesday because you guys are going to be previewing the Thanksgiving games. We will also have prospects to pros with Dane and Andy on Wednesday talking about all of the rivalry games that we're going to have this upcoming weekend, handed hookers injury for Tennessee, a lot of stuff to dig into. So both of those shows will be your way on Wednesday. And then me and Nate will be doing our week 12 preview. that should be coming out Wednesday evening, Thursday morning or so. That's all we got this week. So just one fewer show, our traditional Wednesday show,

we're scrapping in favor of Football GM and Prospects to Pro. So be on the lookout for all of that. Today, though, we have the Monday hangover for week 11. We talked about a lot of games last night. We did a little notebook dump at the end of the recap. So we're only going to talk about three games today. We're going to dig into Bill's Browns in a little bit. We haven't really checked in with the Browns at all this season.

It's been obviously a strange year with all of the Watson stuff and when he's going to come back. And it doesn't really matter what they look like until he comes back. But I do think there's a lot of stuff to chew on and work digging into. We're also going to talk about Bengal Steelers in a little bit. Again, Kenny Pickett is somebody we have not talked nearly enough about so far this season, considering he is a first round pick and the future quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers here moving forward. So we're going to talk about that. But I want to start with the Saints and the Rams.

last week we had a long conversation about the New Orleans Saints and what their future might look like considering some of the what's call them aggressive decisions that the Saints have made in the last calendar year or so. And we are going to have a similar chat about the Rams today. They are now three and seven. Their season is dead in the water. They are going nowhere fast.

They are not going to make the playoffs. A lot of things to kind of chew on with where they sit, what it's going to look like over the next year, some of the dynamics there. First thing before we did, dig into that, though. Do you have any stray Saints thoughts that you want to share from that game yesterday before we really

dive in here with the Rams? You know, I don't. And the thing I like about doing this, you know, I was funny, I was talking to someone in the league this morning and he was, hey, what games are you guys doing? You name the games and people think, God, why would you do those games? No, no, no. There's great topics around these teams. I find it

fascinating. Like, look, we're not going to get into the third down ratio in this game. I don't know, I didn't even, I didn't even watch the game, really, that much before the show like I normally would. If we're talking about the game, I want to talk about the Rams. And I did see enough of the game. But I think the Rams are just a very fascinating team in this place. And they remind me a little bit of Tampa Bay, because I think once you win it all, you've accomplished your goal. And it changes things. It changes

what you have to play for. And so I just think they're at a real interesting place because they've been pushing so hard to get to the mountaintop. Well, they got there. And now you're having a really bad year. So what does that mean for everybody? To me, Aaron Donald's been year to year already. Matt Stafford got to the mountaintop.

Was he need a second ring? Is that what he's in it for? Where's Bobby Wagner next year? How does Jalen Ramsey deal with losing? What Sean McVeigh, shoot, he was, we had to read about TV stuff all off season. You can't watch five minutes of TV without a chunky soup commercial. Where is this whole thing? What, what are we, what are we doing?

I don't, I, so I've talked about this a little bit. I think Nate and I have dug into this a little bit. I'm curious what you think. Like, of this core group, and from my understanding, the way that they've talked about it and some of the reports that have trickled out over the last year or so, as they've really, to McVeigh's future are that he wants to be tied to this core of players. So Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, those guys that are getting up there in age a little bit. And like you said, Aaron Donald, Florida with retirement potentially last off season.

Matthew Stafford is 35. He just won a Super Bowl. He's been in the concussion protocol for two consecutive weeks. How often does Matthew Stafford want to endure this kind of punishment after winning a Super Bowl last year? So if McVeigh is tied to this core of players, how long? long is this core of players going to stick around? And how do you rally them around a common purpose to do what you've already done? When the odds of you doing it again, the odds of you doing it in the first place weren't good. They did it as the fourth seed. It's not like they have

some kind of a juggernaut. They're just, they have a good team. But that offensive line is not going to suddenly be good. We'll talk. We can talk about that. Matt Stafford, if he comes back now, plays, he's the way he plays. And by the way, you don't have Cooper Cup. Even if you come back next year, you're talking a broken thumb, another concussion, somewhere along the way. You're talking, you're going to be some ups and downs, right? So let's entertain option number one. And I think option number one is Matthew Stafford comes back. Most of this group of players comes back, the ones that are under contract. And they've committed to these guys financially. I mean, out of cash they shelled out this year in the form of extensions to Cup to Donald.

All of these gets to Stafford. I mean, they've really given these guys new contracts and committed to this group for the next couple years at the very least. So let's say this group comes back. What in your mind are the most important elements of a path back toward contention for this team? To be relevant again in 2023, even if they're not going to be Super Bowl favorites or immediate Super Bowl contenders? Yes. Having a better plan for the offensive line with a run game component part of that. I think that is really has to come back for them.

We've seen that with almost any quarterback, but especially Matt Stafford at this stage, needs those things. When I look at their offensive line, and I think Sean McVeigh used the word, you know, unprecedented of these injuries, I went back to the September 1st Hour Lad's depth chart, okay? They had Joe Noteboom at left tackle, never been a full season starter, okay? So is it shocking that he's not starting the whole season? Maybe he got injured.

Left guard, David Edwards, had been a full season starter. Okay. Senator Brian Allen, he'd been a full season starter one time. Right guard, Coleman Shelton never had been one. And right tackle Rob Havenstein had been one. So it wasn't like this was, you know, Jackie Schleader and Dennis Hara and those guys from the John Robinson Rams that were coming back. there was a risk with this group anyway. And it's really gone bad.

They've had bad luck, a couple left, two, three left tackle injuries. It's gone about as bad as it could have when they really needed to, they really were hoping to that their three-team parlay came through. That's what their offensive line plan was. It wasn't a 100% thing in retrospect when you look at who they had. They needed a three-team parlay. And then what happened was like everything went as bad as it could. And now here they are.

but if you look back at the whole time McVeves been there, except for maybe one year, they've protected the passer pretty well. And they have to have that. And that's, you're looking at it next year, okay? They bring back pretty much that entire group of offensive line. Joe Nobom is under contract.

Joe Nobubim signed an extension this offseason, like a pretty sizable extension this offseason. He is a 15,5 million dollar cap hit next year. Brian Allen also signed an extension this offseason. he was a free agent, so they brought him back. Havingstein is under contract for multiple years. He's on a fairly recent extension. He has a $22 million dead cap hit if they were to move off from him after the year.

Not saying they would, but just a symbol of when they actually committed to him financially. And those guards that interchangeable at this point, you know, the Coleman Shelton's and the Logan Brusses and the whoever, they can probably find two starters from that group. So the line is probably going to come back looking fairly similar to a version of the one that they had, into week one. Alan Robinson signed a multi-year extension this offseason. Cooper Cup is going to be back. So my biggest question on offensively is if the line is going to look pretty similar

or if they decide, all right, the few resources we do have, obviously they're giving away a top 10 pick as it currently stands right now to the Lions. They have, as sitting here looking at it right now, over the cap, gives them $6.8 million in 2023 cap space. That's it. So with those resources that you have, what upgrades are you going to try to make? Are you going to try to find a little more explosiveness in your past catching group, which you desperately have missed this season? Or are you going to say, with those couple spots we may have on the interior of the offensive line, do we need to get a lot better there?

Based on the way this team has operated previously, I don't get the impression that they're like, we need to go spend or try. trade or get a big money guard in this overall mixture here. That's a luxury they can't afford. Exactly. So my assumption is do they try to go find some sort of past catching solution to drop in as that third option with Robinson and Cup or whatever the mixture ends up looking like next year to say we just need a little bit more explosiveness in here? And if they do get that and the line can stay fairly healthy next season, even if the talent

is an elite, what does that offense look like? Because I think that's really the only thing and the only amount of tweaking we can reasonably expect, considering how much wiggle room they have right now. How do you feel about their, or do you even care about the running back situation, running game? Is that just not that big of a deal? I think their running game issues are definitely come down to more than who's carrying the ball. I mean, we saw that last year, right? And I think this is a real thing for some teams around the league is that if you have this offense where it's past centric, that's where you spend a lot of your practice time. That's where a lot of the energy is spent. A lot of the time those teams struggle to run the ball when they need to. And I think over the last couple seasons, that's what you've seen with the Rams.

If they've transitioned to this drop back, we're going to spread it out and sling it around sort of approach. I think the running game has suffered as a result of that. I think the bills are like that. I think the Bengals were like that over the last couple years when, all right, you only have so many hours in the day to practice all of this stuff. And if most of your offensive identity is going to be built around how we're going to spread out and throw the ball, I think the chiefs have been like that every once in a while, then the other side of it tends to atrophy a little bit.

And I think that's what we've seen from the ramp. So I don't know how that gets fixed, but that's about more than the running back to me. I think that's about ideology. But I also think there is some evidence that it's important to Sean McVeigh. They don't have a fourth round pick this year because they traded for Sony Michelle because he wanted to have that. So if you look at the way that whole soap opera is gone with Cam Acres and all of that, I think that we will we could possibly, we will see them address that position in some way. And it's probably not going to be a huge dollar thing.

But I think it, I think there, I think the back is part of it, maybe a little more. than you do and think that that could be something that could appeal to them as they just look for ways to take a little bit of pressure off of their quarterback. Also, on defense, they've been fine this year, but it's not like they've been an elite defense at this stage of things. They aren't an elite defense anymore. So what kind of defense are we going to be looking at next season and moving forward? You know, they've built in this way where they have Donald and Ramsey and everything else kind of rotates around it. They have some other interesting pieces on that side of the ball. But this isn't a group that's really dominated people anymore.

So let's say that somewhere next season, they settle in the middle of the league defensively. They're the 14th best defense in the league. And you have that entire group back on offense. Is that team relevant in the NFC? What outlook do they have? What sort of expectations do they have? And I think one of the reasons I ask that question is the other door that we haven't opened here yet is what if Stafford just decided? you know what, I'm good.

And what if that does set off some sort of domino effect where McVeigh has questions about whether he should come back? Some of the other guys are like, yeah, this seems like the right time to kind of bow out and step away from this. If we have some sort of mass exodus here from this organization, which doesn't seem like the craziest outcome in the world, then what happens? Yeah, I think the defense is fine too. I mean, just looking at them this year, and I think the defense's job would get a lot easier. if they were a little better on offense like they've been. That just helps. I think they're fine there.

But you're right. That's what I was talking about off the top. As Stafford reassesses after the season, does he just love it so much that he's willing to be out there no matter what, when you've already won it all? I just think that changes the equation for guys and causes you to have different motivations. I don't think that Matt Stafford or almost anyone is Tom Brady, where you have to have, you just have to keep doing it, right?

And so I would be very, you know, at 3 and 7 it's real easy to have these thoughts. And maybe he gets reinvigorated at the end of the year. Maybe McVeigh gets hungry. Maybe they present a plan that is really appealing to him. And he wants to be with this group. And we're going to make one more run. That's totally feasible to me. I think we're at a low point right now where he's just had two, you know, possibly two concussions.

and his number one wide outs out, go, you would like to retire right now. So I think it'll probably swing back towards, you know, really consider and sticking it out. But I think the scenario to lay out, in fact, I was talking to someone in the league about it last night, what kind of the for who for what? What is there for Matt Stafford to do?

What is there for even Aaron Donald? He's a Hall of Famer. if he retired right now and you said who's the greatest defensive tackle of all time, you might say him. And he's got a ring. And so looking at this right now. So his, he has a 63 million dollars guaranteed at signing when he signed this extension.

Another 57 million of that becomes fully guaranteed in March, the 2023 option bonus, the 2024 salary. So looking at it right now, whatever the mechanics end up being, if they designate him as a post-June 1st cut in 2023, so next year, which I assume they would do if he retired, he only counts for $20 million against the salary cap. So they theoretically could survive that and kind of move on and figure out whatever their next move was at quarterback. So it's not something that's going to torpedo them.

And I have to assume that some of the thinking and how they structure this is the idea that maybe he would decide to move on at some point. Yeah, I think it's a little premature. Sure, and there's different mechanics involved. I think if you retire, I don't know, do they wait until June 1 and have to cut you? What are the mechanics of that? I think we're a ways away from that. But I think it's certainly within the realm of just a reasonable thing that you could decide to do if you're on a team this year that wins five games and you reassess, right?

What have you heard from people just around the league about McVeigh's timeline and how long he would want to do this? Is that something that's come up in conversation for you at all? Absolutely. With the stuff, you know, with the TV stuff, I think you felt like he had a chance to consider something even after last year. So the thing that struck me about him this year is he has not seemed nearly as down or drained after the losses. I felt like when I watched him after games last year, it felt like he was about, to go off the edge after every game.

I felt like every one of those killed him, and it was just all he could do to not bite through a book. I have sensed a different matter-of-factness about him, a calmness to him this year. I think however he's handling this is a critical part of the answer to that, because I think if he is how I perceived him last year, which was all of these just crushed a part of his, soul, I don't think he can do that for a long time. But I haven't felt that way about him in the

same way this year. Is it because he won? Is it because he found some balance in his life? Is it because he looks at the situation and realizes what it is? And it's like, you know what, this was always a risk. We went all into win it all. And the margin for error was slim this year. And we are in a situation that is not that huge of a shock. And we'll just ride it out. and be fine. He at the very least to me feels a year to year. He feels like somebody who at the end of the year thinks about it. Then we hear rumors and then we see you almost get his thoughts publicly through it. So I do think it's a I do think it's a year to year with him and the situation and he's not just going to coach a bad situation. I mean, I think the question here is about timelines and about contract links and what guys are signed through. McVeigh just signed a multi-year deal. And I'm also curious about the, uh, the seats for the, for broadcasting, because that's the problem now is that a lot of these seats are filled. You know, Brady is going to maybe go into the booth next year. We, Romo's obviously signed at CBS for however many years. Buck and Aikman just got to ESPN. I don't know how long

Herb Street's going to be at Amazon. If that's just a one year deal and potentially they could be looking to fill that seat, maybe there's a chance that that would be attractive to McVeigh moving forward. I'm sure they would love to have him. But there's just a lot of different considerations here as we think about what his next couple years might look like. Absolutely. And he's signed through 2026. And I don't think anyone has a view into his mind and mindset at this time. We just know that in the past, it's felt like he's thought about it as he went along.

And like I said, he won the Super Bowl already. So there's different considerations. But if his deal is through the 2026 season, as reported, then at the very least the Rams have a say of what he does next in the NFL. We'll see how he feels. All right, let's move on to our next game here. The Bills knock off the Browns in Detroit. Obviously, a pretty weird week for the Bills, which we'll dig into. But I wanted to start by talking about this Browns team.

I think a lot of the just view on them this season has been, all right, they are what they are right now. When Deshaun Watson gets back, what will they ultimately look like? And coming into the year, I thought that they would have a pretty good defense. And I think they believe that as well, that they would be a border. line top 10 defense after the way they finished last season. And that the offense would probably be better than people expected, but not great. If they were going to win these games and kind of stay afloat while Watson was suspended,

they'd be winning 24 to 21 and scraping by a little bit and it'd be ugly every once in a while. And that's how they would remain relevant in his absence. That's not what's happened at all. This is a team that has played much better offensively. and I think even they probably anticipated with Chicobe Perced. And they played much worse defensively.

I mean, this has been one of the worst defenses in football last season, despite all the talent that they have on the back end, despite having Miles Garrett, and I think some pretty real preseason expectations. So trying to separate out the parts of the Browns that aren't going to get better when they get improved quarterback play and the parts of the Browns that are, I think is important in kind of figuring out where they're at

at this stage. So when you're thinking about the 22 Browns and what they've looked like so far this season, what is your biggest consideration here? I've been very surprised. They're extremely young on defense. Yes. By design, by the way. They want to be one of the youngest teams in the league as they build this thing. They do. I feel like for this year, if they really wanted to have these expectations in retrospect, maybe you would like a little bit more savvy or leadership on that side of the ball defensively. And I think when you're really, really young on defense, a lot of times you have issues on special teams too. I believe that. When you look at Bill Belichick in New England for 20 years, they've had good special teams. Well, they've had a bunch of veteran guys on that side of the

ball playing special teams. And so I think those two things could be a little bit hand in hand. They've certainly gotten worse play than expected. I think of the defensive tackle position, certain spots in the secondary haven't been as good for whatever reason. And it's kind of snowballed now when if you just look at this Buffalo game, what did you expect? I mean, this Buffalo game is about what we should have expected, other than they had a horrendous game on special teams. And I think that they were minus 14 EPA on special teams. It's really hard to do. It was twice as bad as any other team in week 11. It's really, really hard to be that bad. But they had their third kick block to the year. I think there's this growing frustration. And I listened to Kevin Stefanski's press conference today. The reporters were all asking about Joe Woods and are we firing this, are we doing that?

But off this game, I don't see that at all. I actually, one of the things I did that I like to do, Robert, is I looked in this game, Buffalo held the bills to their seventh best offensive EPA game of the season. Okay. That's pretty good. They had the third best offensive EPA game of anyone against the bills this season. You take that all day. They just lost on special teams. If they win that game, have a good special team, no one's having these conversations.

So I like to zoom out and say, what is the real problem here? It wasn't Sunday. To me, Sunday is just the seventh loss and everyone's going way overboard when you lost to the bills in a game that was competitive. And you were actually leading for some of the time. So I think you have to separate those things out. The offense should be just absolutely fine. I mean, I was even thinking we were talking off the air. Like this team could be a chief's light team if they get to Sean Watson with the way Amari Cooper's playing, the things we know they have offensively.

they could be great. They're already good on offense. They could be great. So then it becomes, how do you just become, you know, not terrible on defense? And that can be easier to sit than done. We've seen Kansas City at times have really bad runs on defense. But to me, it probably is some combination of, okay, evaluating, do we, what do we think of Joe Woods? What do we think of the scheme we're doing over there?

And do we need a little bit more veteran seasoning? Because to do some of those things schematically, sometimes it helps to have guys who played more. have to sort of figure that out, but I don't, this doesn't feel like a panic down the tube situation to me. I'd be very surprised if they made any sort of like emotional rash decision as it relates to this. I think that this will be something that they evaluate in the off season. Offensively, they've been really good and most of this group comes back. You know, Sunday was a strange game. The starting center, Ethan Poachers got hurt. Their backup center theoretically, Michael Dunn, just went on IR because they were trying to free up a roster spot.

So now their swing guard, whose first name I cannot pronounce, his last name is Froholt number 72. He comes in and plays center. They have a botched snap that they fumbled at one point in this game. They had two quarterback sneaks at one point that they couldn't convert and they end up turning the ball over. So a lot of bad bounces of the ball offensively.

But I think on offense, they looked pretty good for the most part. They couldn't run the ball. but I think they did move the ball fairly consistently through the air against a pretty good Bill's defense that had Jordan Poir back. He was really good in this game, by the way, a couple really nice moments. But you look at the component parts of what their offense is. Amari Cooper is going to be there.

He's been really, really good for them. They stole him from Dallas for what, when you consider the wide receiver market and what Amari Cooper got and what Amari Cooper has looked like, that is a huge win for Cleveland. So Amari Cooper is under contract. He's under contracted a reasonable number. he is still fairly young. He will be there next year. Donovan People's Jones has shown some flashes. I think he's a nice little role player. He's going to be in his last year of his contract next season. He's absolutely a worthwhile piece on that offense. Both of the guards are signed long term.

Judge of Wales is still on his rookie contract. Jack Conklin is a free agent. It's really the only consideration along the offensive line. I would assume that Pochish might be back based on how well he has played. Okay. So you drop Deshaun Watson into that and then you have Nick Chub. that 2023 offense with like one more receiving option potentially, that is a pretty good group. I mean, that is a group that has really, really high ceiling potential and could be one of the better offenses in the NFL. On defense, everything is on the table. You know, I just think that the lack of progress they've made on that side of the ball and the lack of development from their young players on that side of the ball, that's where this goes astray.

And when you've put so much into the secondary, a first round pick for Denzel Ward, a first round pick for Greg Newsom, a second round pick for Grant Delpit, a big money contract for John Johnson, and you haven't gotten the development and progress from that group, then at a certain point, you need to ask yourself some hard questions.

And I would have to assume, and I would bet, that any sort of transition defensively would be out on the table for them this offseason. I don't think that Kevin Stefansky is tied to that sort of defensive scheme. I think that was a moment where they played that San Francisco team that year in the playoffs. They got dominated by that San Francisco team when he was in Minnesota.

They went out and got Joe Woods. I don't think that's an accident from that staff to build this defense in Cleveland. But we're a couple years removed from that. I think that to build a defense from that scheme and that system that can be successful in 2022 requires a level of investment on the front four that this team has not been willing to make. and I don't know if Andrew Barry is going to be willing to make it based on the types of positions that he values. So I just think that they're going to start from scratch with we have Miles Garrett, we have Denzel Ward. How do we build a top 12 defense around these two guys that are young and that we've paid and theoretically should be elite players at their positions? Absolutely.

With a ton of young guys, they have decent talent. I think they just have to figure out, do they need some veterans in there? I think they do. And you're right. Figure out if it's a scheming issue, you a buy an issue, whatever. but this should be a really good team. Yeah, and I'm surprised by how just underwhelming they've been on defense. And I do think that they've lost some guys that are more important than they might seem at first glance.

Like Anthony Walker's been IIR for most of this year, he's a veteran presence in the middle of that defense that they no longer have now. They had to train for Dion Jones. I mean, they've been scrambling at some of those spots, but this is about more than losing one stabilizing force. in the middle of your defense. This is a systemic problem with what's going on on that side of the ball. I think that you've seen that all year. Grant Delt puts comments after the game where he said, you know, it's hard to be successful on defense when you don't know what you're doing. And that's it's a pretty big indictment of that side of the ball and the staff on that side of the ball. And we'll see what happens. But I think it's easy to talk yourself into the talent that they have on

offense. And with some changes on defense, what could they look like in 2023? That's where I would be if I were a Browns fan. I'd be like, listen, like this year was always going to be strange, what to expect from this year, I think is really hard to understand. But next year, with some of the talent that we have on defense and most of this offense coming back, David and Joku's been having a career year before he got hurt, like, what do we look like next year with a new defensive staff and most of the same pieces in place on offense? That's where my mindset would be. I think right now down the stretch is a challenge for Stafansky. You know, these types of things where you You have the whispers come out of the locker room and guys saying things,

and now they're implying this and that about the coordinator. Stefansky's always been so calm and everything. You know, you just can't rile him up. But it'll be interesting to see if it falls apart to a greater degree in that way if they continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball. And what he does is he able to kind of hold it together? Because it sort of feels, even though, like I said, I don't think it's any big story to lose to the bills in a road game, even though it wasn't in Buffalo.

But it does feel like they're at maybe not quite a tipping point, but close. Yeah, defense is so volatile from season to season. And if you have an offensive staff, an offensive infrastructure and a baseline level of offensive talent that you're confident in, making some tweaks on the defensive side of the ball and seeing what that gets you, that can go a very long way. And this has happened before. You made the comparison to the chiefs, and I don't think they'll get there on that side of the ball in terms of their heights or their ceiling just because the chiefs are the chiefs. But I think people forget that in the first couple years of the Patrick Mahomes era, the chiefs were awful defensively. I mean, they were one of the worst defenses in the league, and Andy Reid had to fire his defensive coordinator and bring in Steve Spagnolo to bring some sort of stability to that side of the ball. and even getting a unit that was the 17th best defense in the league at times over the last three or four years,

with Spagnolo coming in has been a game changer for Kansas City. So this has happened in the past. It wouldn't be the first offensive minded head coach who had to kind of figure out the solutions on that side of the ball. And I think that's pretty much where the Browns are right now. But you have a couple of stars. I want to know, some of those guys, I think we were expecting to take the next step, you know, whether it's Greg Newsom, whether it's Grant Delpit. haven't. I think they're still unestablished enough, though, for us to, it wasn't like these guys were

superstars of the first three eaters. So they got to figure out what they have in some of those young guys because it's not like they've got a ton of track record and are proven to be great players. My issue is you see this around the league where you have these places where they've created an ecosystem on one side of the ball where guys get better or guys get worse. You know, there are examples where no matter who ends up in that place, you see the best version of them, offensively, defensively. If you're going to New England, we're probably going to see the best version of who you are as a defensive player. And then there are other examples where we're going to see the worst version of who you are as a defensive player.

You don't see development. You don't see progress. Guys don't grow. And unfortunately, I think that is where the Browns have gotten defensively. Like, Miles Garrett is Miles Garrett. He's one of the best defensive players in the league. He was the number one pick in the draft. but even guys that should be elite or borderline elite players like Denso Ward have not played well this year when they've been healthy.

And I think that becomes the problem. JOK is like that where you have somebody that you trade it up in the draft to go get him, really, really talented guy, incredibly volatile. You don't know what you're going to be getting from week to week. But the general line of his progress has not been pointed in the direction that you want it to be. And I think that you can pretty much say that about every single member of the defense. And that's why I think that kind of starting from scratch with the personnel that you have and saying, okay, we have these players. How do we build something out of these players is not the worst route in the world for Stefanski for the organization to take?

Because I think he'll be back next year. But I don't think that I don't know if the defensive staff will be. Yeah. I think they'll have a new look, you know, kind of a new approach in some way. And that'll include a combination of personnel. as well. All right. Let's talk about the bills just briefly here. Just sort of a very weird week, right? I mean, they were pretty underwhelming offensively, again, in this game. They ran the ball fairly well, which you absolutely can do against the Browns. But, you know, the passing game, again, looked a little bit disjointed. Stefan Diggs didn't get into the mix, you know, until pretty deep into the game. Are we just writing this off to having to dig yourself out of a snowstorm and play a home game and a different team stadium and all of the different, you know,

machinations and moving parts that went along with what the sort of week the bills had last week? I am. You know, and I think if I wasn't as, if I wasn't paying that close attention to it, I might not. But shoot, just how do you, how could you not listen to Sean Burterman after the game yesterday and understand what it was like for these guys? I mean, he was stressing over getting dug out of his house, you know, and then you're relocating a game. And yeah, you just came off of a brutal loss.

I mean, how could you have a worse loss? in a non-playoff game than the one that they had against Minnesota. So we've been worried in the last couple weeks about, you know, what's Josh Allen's elbow? Josh Allen, as he turned it over, has he lost it? Look, they came out. It wasn't overly exciting, but they had both running backs. I think each guy had 86 yards, which will take it for Buffalo. They had 171 to 80-yard lead running the ball, which we know that's not their formula.

We know that's not what the bills are going to be. But right now in this moment, it's kind of what they needed. They sort of needed a, you know, kind of a, they needed a three wood down the middle, you know. And I wasn't looking for this game for them to have their most spectacular performance. I think at this stage of the season, we know they're a good team. They got the win. They've got to turn around and go right back to Detroit on a short week, which is not easy. But just weather this, you know, just get through it, whether it, I didn't mean that.

pun-wise, weather it, but that's part of it too. I mean, that was a outlier event. Figuratively and literally. They really need to do that. Yeah. So I'm like not fundamentally more worried about Buffalo after this week. Why should anybody be? Yeah. The offense still, I feel like the rhythm of just like what they're doing in the passing game

concerns me a tiny bit. But I am tempted to just kind of write that off this week with it being such a strange set of circumstances. it was nice to see some of those defensive players get back and give them a little bit of a boost, right? Like, Poirer made two plays in the first quarter where it's like, all right, it's huge having him back. And Oliver made a bunch of plays in the run game. Their defensive line, I thought, did a fantastic job against a Cleveland running game that is one of the best in the NFL. And so if you can just escape, and Tremant Emmons didn't even play in this game.

So if you can escape games like this where you're digging out of your car, you don't know how you're going to even get to the game. It's a weird week. You're displaced. And you still manage to beat a solid Browns team in a neutral site game while not playing your best. I think you take this one, put it in your back pocket, and you figure out the rest later. That's kind of how I'm feeling right now. I definitely feel that. And I really want to see what Dredavius White brings when he comes back.

I think that's a key addition for them. And you could see in this game, I mean, Jacoby Versette goes 28 to 41 for 324 with three touchdowns, one sack. Amari Cooper's 8 for 113 and 2. If you told me that before the game, I would go, shoot. bills might be in trouble here, you know, but they got the win, and I'd like to see that part rounded out. I mean, how many teams that are as good as the bills are going to add somebody of that caliber, hopefully, if he's back down the stretch? That gives them something to, you know, more than hope to help them kind of complete them a little bit for when it really does matter.

All right, let's get to our last one here, Bengals and Steelers. We have not talked much about Kenny Pickett and about his prospects here moving forward. I think we've touched on the lack of a plan that the Steelers had offensively, which I still think is a considerable problem and somebody to think about moving forward. But watching this game, even in a loss, what were your thoughts about Kenny Pickett and kind of where he's at right now? Oh, I was pretty happy with it. I was pretty happy with the game for him. It's pretty fun. Yeah. Yeah, you're happy to see the people say, oh, bad game. No, this is exciting to me. Like, and you know what it's like to, you know, some of these, we're talking about Zach Wilson

or some of these guys who it's just not happening for. I saw some nice things in this game. So the notes that I took down, second and five early. Finally, we got some good field position. He waits on George Pickens to come open, connects 22-yard game. Hey, that was the guy who was open. Great. That's what you want to see.

Third and eight, the Blitz has not picked up. He sneaks out that gap, finds his running back, Jalen Warren. throws for third and eight completion gets the first down and he's being wrapped up and dragged to the ground. Love to see that. Third and seven, they get Najee Harris on a wheel route, I think, against Trey Hendrickson. And that's going to be the big one. Freaking Hendrickson covered him. Yeah.

Like it was like, okay, there were some plays in this game. That's one of them. There were some star plays in this game. I was like, okay. So, but we're 1717 late second quarter in this game, and I'm like, I'm good with this. You know, I loved before the half. Levi Walsh had interception, that diving one. There was two amazing interceptions in this game, both of them on Burrough.

T.J. Watts is unbelievable. It's going to say two interceptions in the box score for Burrow at the end of this game. It's hard to tack those up for him. Really? Believe it like, a Tipped ball. Both crazy plays defensively. Yeah. So I love that, though, for Pickett, because now we get end of half near midfield,

31 seconds left. And I'm like, great, these are the situations that we want to see them in. of course they get a false start, you know, so, okay, they get a field goal out of it, 20 to 17. I loved the first half. Like the first half to me was what I want to see from him, I can see progress. And then I felt like in the second half, it wasn't just him, but it was just a little bit tougher. He kind of threw the hospital ball early in the third quarter on a third and four, got his guy, you know, in a big collision.

I don't know what happened. Did he talk about that third and four from the plus 15 where he dirts it to Deonté Johnson? He's crossing. It's going to be a first down. That play also jumped out to me. I do not know exactly what happened there. That was a weird one. It's hard to understand exactly how he lets that ball go that way in that moment.

Yeah, so they have to get the field goal. Now they're still down 24 to 23. And then I really hated, you know, in the fourth quarter, run, run, third and four. We get a miraculous pickings catch along the sideline. Awesome. But this is now hard. The offense is now hard. I felt like down the stretch, they do a flea flicker with a tossback that's errant, and it's like, oh my gosh, we're going to lose 20 yards.

It's a fire drill. Then we get second and ten. We run for a two-yard loss, and I'm just going, oh. But, and then I think it was a third and twelve sack after that. And so everything seemed harder after that, but I saw enough of the positive throughout it that I was like, okay, you know what? They were right there toe-to-to-to-to with the Bengals. It was not a dispiriting game at all. I think you could see some things.

You were hoping for more. And if you're a fan in the moment, you know, like Brown's fans are, you might just be like evaluating the actual game and, oh, I can't believe we lost it. But I was pretty good with it. The ball he completed to Pickens for the touchdown. It was one example of this, but I think there are a couple of them. He really is willing to stand in the pocket and deliver some of these throws while things are kind of crumbling around him. And his ability to both operate in that space and then,

navigate pressure, I think, has been particularly impressive. I mean, he's right now looking at a shocking number, but Kenny Pickett is completing 53.7% of his passes when pressured this year. Okay. Talk about other young quarterbacks and how they handle situations like that. 53.7% is literally twice what Zach Wilson's completion percentage under pressure is. It is twice that number. And that's not the most important thing.

We know that stuff is volatile. but his ability to navigate pressure, consistently step up and out of the pocket and keep his eyes down the field, I think has been pretty darn good. He delivered a couple really nice balls outside of the numbers today. The one to Pickens down the right sideline

is a gorgeous throw. Pickens dropped another potential touchdown in the fourth quarter. My thing is you have these glimpses where it's like, okay, I can absolutely work with this. And there are two things coming away from this game. Like, all right, if this changes,

going into next season, what could Kenny Pickett and that Steward's offense end up looking like? First is, this team is right now, I believe picking in the top 10. I think we need a new left tackle.

Dan Moore is a fourth round pick last year. It is, in my opinion, probably the weak link on their offensive line. It's one spot they really haven't. They didn't address this off season. They went out and got James Daniels. They went out and got Mason Cole. Whatever you think of those guys,

I think they've tried to upgrade at those positions. Chuck's Corpour, for somebody that they've committed to it, right tackle. Going out and getting like a bonafide starting left tackle with that top 10 pick when you already have a quarterback, I don't think is the worst idea in the world. More struggled several different times in this game against Trey Hendrickson. And I think that's a spot where they could probably use a bit of a lift. And then the other side of it is when you watch this passing game, it just doesn't feel like

every area of the field is available to that. I looked up the numbers because when you watch them, that crosser that they hit to George Pickens early in the game that you mentioned, it's really the only time you see them trying to access that area of the field. So it's like, man, they just really don't seem to have any intermediate throws to the middle of the field. And then I looked at the numbers. Kenny Pickett has completed seven passes of 10 or more air yards between the numbers this season. Seven.

That is 38th in the NFL. If you look at some other guys, like, DAC has completed like 12 of them on half of the amount of dropbacks that Kenny Pickett has had. Andy Dalton has about the same number of dropbacks that Kenny Pickett does. He has, I think, 19 completions of 10 or more air yards between the numbers. Like, that area is just not there for this offense. And I think that partially is because of how it's structured and where they're trying to throw the ball. It's all goal balls and stuff that's underneath. And I think bringing someone in who can actually build an NFL level passing game for this team with George Pickens, with De Ante Johnson, with Pat Fryer Muth, with potentially an upgrade at left tackle, and Kenny Pickett, I can talk myself into that and build a case for why you should be optimistic about that group and that plan moving into 2023.

Yeah, it was good to hear you say that about in the pocket, too, because I remember when Randy Muley, and I were going through his draft evows, that was the one thing. One thing always Randy comes back to is, you know, he always says the pocket's not for everybody. And he said it was for, it was for Kenny Pickett. And that's why he had no problem with him being a first rounder, no problem with him being a top 10 pick. And so I think if you have that, it's a great starting point. Well, we did see some of that. I think it's a good observation.

And it's really what's going to probably help sustain him as much as anything. I don't know what Kenny Pickett's ceiling is as an NFL quarterback. But I think what I've seen from him so far and even what I saw from him last week, I think he is an NFL starter. And now it's about trying to put the right pieces around him. And this is a team that's in kind of a strange spot just because they do have receiving options. They have invested in that position. When you look at some of these other teams around the league that have drafted guys in the first round

or the second round in the case of the Eagles, they've had to kind of consciously go out and say, can we add pass catchers to this group? I think the Steelers already have pass catchers. I think it's the other elements of this offense, whether it's a piece or two along the offensive line and who is actually designing this thing and figuring out what the offensive plan looks like, those are the things that I would be focused on moving forward. They're just, they cannot access enough areas of the field with the way that their past the game is structured right now.

And I think that is something that probably has to change moving forward if you're going to see the best version of Kenny Pickett, both next year and beyond. I know. Some of these moving parts were crashing into each other. in the run game, you know, the tight end comes across and it looks like he hits a brick. I don't need any more shovel passes to Zach, Zach Gentry. Like in my life, I do not need any more of those. And it's just, it's an offense.

It's like, it's a lot of bells and whistles that take you nowhere. And I just think something that's a little bit, I don't know, traditional is the right word, but I don't need all that. I just need like every once in a while, I need like a deep crosser off traditional under center play. If you can give me that, then I'm into whatever's happening right now. And I think this quarterback can do that. So, right? I mean, I think he's a fairly conventional passing quarterback.

So let's have that type of an offense. All right. Any thoughts about the Bengals before we get out of here today? Yeah, I liked how in this game they replaced some of what's missing with Jamar Chase not being there with running back production. It was unbelievable. Every one of these passes I looked at it. I was like, wait, that was another running back again. And so I looked it up.

This was my note on them, kind of their running back and a little bit of tight-end usage, which I didn't use a ton. But Borough targeting running backs, 7 of 8, 94 yards, three touchdowns, 1.3 EPA per pass play. Okay? That is awesome. They had 10.7 offensive pass EPA targeting running backs. It's Burrow career high. Next biggest game was a week six year against Detroit last year.

I think Burrow getting Mixon on a wide receiver route for a 24-year-old. gain. I think Nate Tice tweeted something about that. Awesome. I mean, that's like what they did with Marshall Falk. I'm not comparing to Marshall Falk. But that is, I love that. And then there was another one where Haydenhurst juked Miles Jack early in the game out of his off the field. He kind of started maybe inside the numbers, did this little shimmy stutter to the outside, and then went to the middle of the field and just hit him for a nice big gain. I thought that component of their offense, when they clearly don't have maybe the most dynamic player other than Tyree Kill in the league

who catches passes was really a good and cool thing to see for them. So that was a notation that I made for Sincy. When Joe Burrow has a little bit of time, it's really fun to watch this passing game go. He got sacked twice in this game. One was Cam Hayward just destroying Cordell Olson. I mean, just truly disgusting stuff. and then there was another where Watt got him once, didn't Watt hit him good?

I think they were on, they were, I think, because I was looking it up, so I wasn't sure how many times he got hit. So there were four hits on in this game, which was double the total that he got hit the previous two games. Oh,

so okay. All right, so he had four hits. And then in the third quarter, on their first possession of the third quarter, Highsmith got home on a stunt on second down and Watt kind of cleaned it up. Watt had like a little hump move. Yeah.

If Hyesmith hadn't finished it off, then Watt probably would have. So those are only two sacks in this game. And they were operating quickly from the shotgun. I mean, it's just a passing game where when he gets to play point guard and so many, the amount of throws that Joe Burrow delivered outside of the numbers down the field today to Boyd several to Higgins. Like it's just the type of team where I think their schedule's brutal.

It's absolutely brutal down the stretch. We know this. but if they can string together some wins and they can somehow sneak in here, I just don't have that many reasons to think that this version of the Bengals is that much less dangerous than the version of the Bengals that we saw last year.

I think that their offense has more solutions to more problems than they did last season. I do think that their offensive line talent is better than it was last year. Glyle Collins has had an up and down year. He had some nice moments against T.J. Watt in this game. I still think that over the course of his season, they're going to get a little bit better.

They're going to figure out some more solutions issues along in that position group and up front. And when you combine that with a quarterback who is really, really good and past catchers that we're excited about, I still just feel like the potential that they have on offense and what they can do in a single game would scare me if I were one of these AFC contenders. I mean, the chiefs have already dealt with it before. They know what it looks like. And that would just be something where I would not want to.

to see them in January if they managed to sneak into this thing. I really wouldn't. Totally with you. I think they're the classic hang around team. Just hang around guys. Let's just keep our head above water and try to get it right, try to hit it right. Because even last year as a Super Bowl team, we hold them up as that, but we know it's hard. They were not the number one seat or anything, but they showed they could do it if they got things going at the right time. So I feel very similar about them. I like the way, like I said, they adapted a little bit in this game, got a win. And we know if they can develop some of these things and then you get Jamar Chase back, look out. T.J. White only had three pressures over the course

of the entire game. He had 34 pass rush snaps. So I think that's a pretty good outcome if you are the Cincinnati Bengals and you're trying to deal with him over the course of this entire game. The intercept. So this was the other note I made in this game, Robert. I was thinking, I was talking to someone earlier today about like, I was looking ahead to the slate of games this week. I'm like, all right, how many these games would you pay to see? You know, what would you actually pay to I'd pay to see some things that happen in this game. This one, this is our hangover game where we're not supposed to, you know, these aren't supposed to be the greatest games. T.J. Watts' interception from point blank range, one of the most amazing plays. Levi Wallace's interception, one of the most

amazing plays. George Pickens catch, I mentioned Trey Hendrickson in the coverage. There were four or five or six wow moments in this game that were worth the price of admission. I thought it was a fun game for a quote-unquote hangover game with some interesting implications for the future. I thought that Trey Hendrickson was just very good in this game, period. He was a consistent force coming off the edge. I think that that is really good news for the Bengals because they need him to be that based on just who they are and how they're built. I thought that he got the best of Dan Moore several different times in this game. Also just a real testament to how weird is shit the Bengals like to get defensively.

Trey Hendrickson was in coverage on three plays in this game. Sam Hubbard dropped into coverage on five plays in this game. They're just going to do a bunch of wonky shit. when Luan Rumo is there. And I really respect them for it. I enjoy watching them. The other guy I wanted to mention, Jermaine Pratt just had some like bring the wood moments

against the run in this game that I really enjoyed. They're just a good defense. They're fun to watch. They've a lot of really good players. I just, I truly enjoy digging into them every single time I get a chance to. So this is another entry in the Bengals defense is a good group and always worth watching. It was a rewind game of who was that in coverage again?

What was his number? Like, wait a minute. I'm like, And he was awesome. Both of them are built the exact same way. I think Hubbard, thankfully, has a few more accessories that make him easy to identify. Yeah. Hadrickson doesn't have the gloves. Like, there's a world where you just couldn't tell them apart. Thankfully, they do a couple of things that differentiate themselves. I'll be interested to see, you know, Lou Anarumo and the head coaching candidate mix and all of that, you know, just for them. I think that that's, he's just an interesting person to keep our eye on here with. What do you think about that? because I have thoughts. Yeah, yeah.

Well, I mean, look, you're not going to, it's not going to be the sexy hire defensive guy from the team that's known for having great offensive weapons, right? And that was a job that was kind of even hard to fill at the time. But I just think he's done nothing but exceed the expectations. So I would at least want to have that interview. He's, I think, one of the best defensive football coaches in the league. I think he has some of the most interesting ideas that we consist. see from week to week. I think he does one of the best jobs of, all right, these are the problems

that this offense presents to me, how am I going to solve those problems? To me, it would just be interesting personality was. Like, he is, he is not the bubbliest man in the world. I, that doesn't mean he's not going to wouldn't be a good head coach. But I just think he's not going to win any press conferences. Yeah. It's a different job. Yeah. It's a different job. And you, yeah, you'd have to assess that. But I'd at least want to, you know, he's done such a good job in this role that I would at least want to, if that's how we're measuring some of these candidates, and you can't help but not, right? I would 100% agree with you. I think over the last two years, I'm with you. I would, I would want to have the conversation at the very least with him and just about some of these ideas that he's bringing because I would be hard pressed over the last two years to come up with a defensive, to come up with many defensive coordinators who. I think have consistently done as good a job as he has over the last two seasons. Agreed.

All right. That is all we have for today. As always, guys, sincerely appreciate you listening. If you have not subscribed to our YouTube channel, highly encourage you to do that. We'd really appreciate it. We'll be rolling out a bunch of YouTube specific stuff over the second half of the season. So now is the time to go check that out. Please subscribe to the podcast if you have not.

Please rate and review the podcast if you have not. Theathletic.com slash football show is where you can subscribe to The Athletic. Now is a great time to do that. I believe our Black Friday sale will be coming here to you pretty shortly. So that is worth checking out. We will be back. Excuse me. Mike and Randy will be back on Wednesday with a early edition, a Thanksgiving preview edition of the football GM.

Until then, really appreciate guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.