The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 12 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: November 27, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 12 DFS slate. They discuss Dalvin Cook chalk, a willingness to pass on high-priced receivers, the desire to get invested in Chargers-Bills and Chiefs-Buccaneers, and more.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through the slate from a gambling standpoint, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 30:35). Will Beller finally back off the Cardinals? Can the Browns cruise against the Jaguars? Can Taysom Hill and the Saints keep it rolling in Denver? Are the Giants worthy of laying nearly a touchdown against the shorthanded Bengals? Will the Chiefs hand the Buccaneers another loss and, more importantly, do so by more than 3.5 points? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Everybody, welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show for Friday, November 27th. I'm going to wish you all a happy Thanksgiving and a happy Thanksgiving weekend. I'm also going to pull back the curtain and let you know that myself, Michael Beller and my co-host, Derek Van Riper, we're actually because of the holiday week. We're taping this on Tuesday. So as we sit here and record this, Thanksgiving has not happened. But we have to move some things around.

So we're doing it in advance. Thanksgiving to everyone. Hope you all of us safe. Happy holiday week, holiday weekend, enjoying the football that you already watched yesterday, even though it hasn't happened as we've recorded this and are going to watch this weekend. Derek, do we cover it all? Do we have everything in order here? Yeah, I mean, I think if you've done DFS prep earlier in the week, you know that you're writing your plans on a dry erase board or in pencil because value will open up inevitably between now and Sunday. There will be injuries that have been underreported. to this point that we don't know about right now

that will create some pretty obvious paths to plays that are less obvious or impossible to figure out right now. But it's still always good to get ahead of the curve, do some of that homework, dig in and have a lot of plans ready to go in case it happens to be a light week for injuries. That's always

possible. Yeah, it's always possible. Even in 2020, that's something that we could see happen. Things could shake out in our favor. So, we're getting ready here for, so again, as we are recording this, it is Tuesday afternoon. So things are going to change between what Derek and I say here today and what you are listening to when today is now today for you. Whatever that is, that is going to be changed, right? So we are just going to

try to project things out a few days in advance for the DFS slate. I think there are some things that we know, Derek. There are a handful of games that are very interesting on this week's slate. We've got the Chiefs going to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers, the Chargers, go into Buffalo to take on the bills. Those are two very interesting games. Two games. I would love. to get invested in. And I think that almost no matter what, right, I mean, Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Clyde Edwards, and Keenan Allen, and Stefan Diggs and all the Bucks receivers, there are ways to get invested. I think I want to find a way, no matter who it is, to get invested in both of those games. Yeah, absolutely. They stand out in terms of the over-under totals and

the offensive firepower involved. Both of those teams that they're matched up against are good enough to keep pace and actually push that game along toward those elevated totals. I think the other game that is on my radar as the standout sort of tier is the Titans Colts matchup sitting at 51. The problem I think here is the Colts every week, it seems like, shake up their personnel groups, their distribution of touches and targets in a way that always leaves us chasing production. We saw it. in week 11. The interest was in Naheem Hines. It was Jonathan Taylor who came out and played really well. Is it going to be Taylor again this week? Fair question to ask, right? Even in the first half of that

game, Michael Pittman looked great. We didn't see as much of him in the second half. That was very frustrating because I think he can be a true number one on that offense. So I hope we're not just letting the problems we're having with the Colts steer us away from how fantasy friendly that game is, especially on the Titan side. Yeah, and we've also seen the Colts be able to play up when the game requires it. We just saw it a week ago against the Packers. They get down 28-14 at halftime.

They rally back. They take a 3128 lead in the second half and ultimately win that game 34-31 in overtime. So even though we don't, and I don't think we should think of them as this offensive-offensive-driven team, they're still a team that can play in those high-scoring games. So that could be another interesting one.

and obviously a huge game with both the Titans and Colts going into that one at 7 and 3. Winner of it has the inside track for the AFC South Crown. Let's move on to the running back position. One guy in that game is among our most expensive running backs. That, of course, is Derek Henry. Delvin Cook is the king of the running back position this week. $9,500. Got to go all the way down to $8,200 to find the next running back, Alvin Camara,

and then 7,900 is where Derek Henry sits. Do you want to get in on one of those three guys this week? It's really hard to pass on Delvin Cook because he's had at least 30 touches in three of his last four games. This is 2019 Christian McCaffrey territory price-wise. It's almost in that range usage-wise. The key difference being McCaffrey had an even greater role in the Panthers passing game a year ago. I think you can do it. I think you can justify getting one.

I think it's really difficult to pay up for two, even though you'd like to pay up for two, because there's so much instability at the position as a whole. So the default for me is I build up my cash game lineups is to go ahead and lock in Cook, even at that $9,500 price tag. We'll talk about a few ways to save a little bit of money in those baseline builds. I think Camara is going to be used a bit less than we're accustomed to because he was a non-factor in the passing game in Taysom Hills first start last week. that does seem like a mistake.

We talk about cash games, we talk about GPPs, we talk about having multiple lineups in some instances. So my question for you is, do you take Camara and put him into a few tournament lineups as a pivot off of Cook, just one or two out of, say, 10 lineups? Because I still think there's a lot to like. The way Taysam Hill played lends itself

to Camara's role in the passing game coming back here in week 12. Yeah, I like Camerra. actually a lot this week. And I definitely think that Cook is the better cash game play. Of course, that goes without saying. But I would still be comfortable playing Camara in cash games. And I think that the leverage that you're going to get on him most likely is very attractive. I know that Taysam Hill, the stylistic differences between him and Drew Brees, just when you're talking in a neutral environment, just a running quarterback versus what Drew Brees is.

It's just going to take some sort of receiving volume away from a running back no matter who it is. But we can't just think of these guys in context-neutral situations because that's not reality. I mean, that helps us maybe in our overarching picture of what a DFS slate looks like, but that's not how reality actually works. We're still talking about Alvin Camero. We're still talking about a guy who is in a class only with Christian McCaffrey, those two guys alone when it comes to being dangerous weapons catching the ball out of the backfield. No one else comes close to those two guys.

So while that, even though we have to own up to what the reality of, Taysam Hills game is, I still think that there's going to be plenty of work in the passing game for Alvin Camara. So I do like him pretty much across the board. And I like the fact that you can probably bank on getting some low ownership for a guy who has the ability to go off in the way that Alvin Camara does. That's just not going to be the case very often. So I do like jumping back on the Camara train and trusting him to get going against the Broncos this week. Someone else who I'm back in on this week is Nick Chubb, and that's where we get into another group of running backs, where we like the guys who are going to get volume. I've got Nick Chub down here at $7,100.

You also write into our show sheet James Robinson at $6,300. And something I like about those guys every week, regardless of a matchup, regardless, almost, of price, is the fact that we know what their workload is going to be. I think you can throw Josh Jacobs in here, $7,200. We know exactly what their workload is going to be. And then you look around them, you've got Mike Davis at 6,900. What's the performance level going to be? Clyde Edwards-Alaire, it's 6,400. What's his workload going to be?

You got Ronald Jones, 6100. Same thing with the workload concerns. Jonathan Taylor, 5,900. I mean, there are very few backs who we can look at and say, yes, the workload is going to be there. And it makes me want to just trust those guys and figure out the other positions after I've locked those guys in. Yeah, definitely.

So a couple thoughts on that group as a whole. I think I would expect the Browns to be leading throughout that matchup against Jacksonville, so you're looking at 20 carries for Chubb as a very reasonable target. He's sort of a cheaper Derek Henry, doesn't catch a lot of passes, is the guy when they're protecting a lead and is really efficient with those carries. So I could see Chubb being a good way to save a little bit of money, get a nice high projection, and have that extra 800 bucks to spend elsewhere compared to going with Henry.

Josh Jacobs has had more week-to-week variance than I would expect for a player with his usage. If you look at his game log, the weird thing is we saw a heavy involvement in the passing game to begin the season. That sort of trailed off in the last couple of weeks. Six targets in his last four games. The floor is about 13 points, as we've seen during that span.

But the ceiling is the occasional multi-touchdown game like we got in week 10. You get the 32 Draft Kings points in that matchup against Denver. This looks like a really good spot against the falcons, so I'd be more inclined to play them than to avoid them. I just wonder if you can actually build a top end lineup by passing on the elite backs and going with two from this group. I wonder if the best play still isn't going with Cook, plus someone like James Robinson at 6,300, because as we've talked about on this show for the last several weeks, James Robinson gets plenty of volume on the ground. And if the Jags are playing catch up, he's

their primary cast pass catching back as well. So you're not worried about the game script kind of pushing him aside. And at 6,300, that's a really nice price that offsets some of the extra money you had to spend to get up to cook. I mean, it's basically a situation with James Robinson where even his worst yardage game, if he gets a touchdown on top of it, you're golden with where his pricing is. And that's just true for him every single week. I mean, even like, look at last week. Not a super efficient game for him. 17, carries for 73 yards, two catches for 21 yards. I mean, it's 94 yards from scrimmage with two catches.

You throw a touchdown in there. You got yourself a stew going right there with James Robinson. So I feel pretty good about having him in my lineup any time you're getting him south of $6,500. We've got to move on from this running back position, but just one more guy who, cash game, GPP, whatever it might be, someone who you just want to make a case for in week 12. I think it's interesting that Kenyon Drake is 5,400. he has the ninth highest projection in terms of fantasy points at running back on rotel grinders, and he's 23rd in price.

That's pretty appealing to me, especially when we think about how that game could flow as a nice shootout. If you're still looking for a tournament option at the same price range, Todd Gurley, the most TD dependent player in the entire pool is only 5,500 for me. He's tournaments only because he doesn't have a role in the passing game, and maybe playing from behind. And then there's James White. At 4,500.

With Rex Burke head out, White goes back to his previous function of catching a lot of passes out of that backfield because there's a lot of instability in their group of pass catchers as a whole. I think the floor on James White is very good. I think the ceiling is higher than people think. So he's probably my favorite punt play, we'll call it, at the running back position. I don't feel like he's a punt because he actually has a clear role. Like a punt play is like a $3,000 guy that you just feel like is a complete lottery. ticket. James White actually has a clear function in the Patriots offense. I will double down with

you on James White. That was the one guy who I was going to throw out $4,500. No Rex Burk had nine targets last week for James White, caught six of them for 64 yards. That was a game where they had to chase, chase, chase, chase because of who they were playing in Houston. I think we see the exact same thing this week against Arizona. Let's just be honest about what this New England defense is this year. It's bad. It's a defense that you can run up the score on. I think the Cardinals are going to be able to to do that. Patriots are going to have to try and keep pace, and James White is one of the two best pass catchers on that team, so I think we see another good game out of James White this week. All right, let's move on over to the wide receiver position here, Derek, another one

where got some guys clustered at the top of the position, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Tyree kills, Stefan Diggs, Michael Thomas. Once you get down to Thomas at 7,400, you start to make a little bit of a jump with where you are at DeAndre Hopkins, but those are still the wide receiver ones available to us on the main slate. Do you want any of these guys or are you looking beyond them for your wide receiver one in a general core build? So far without the previously mentioned injuries opening up clear value guys, I think Calvin Ridley has been my preferred expensive receiver at 7,100.

I'm kind of operating under the assumption that Julio Jones won't play. We'll know a lot more, of course, as the weekend approaches. If Julio plays, you know, maybe I'll find the extra couple hundred bucks and try to get to Stefan Diggs at 7600 as my first option from this group. But I think with the Falcons, I think they're going to be playing a lot of catch-up in this game. The Raiders continue to show that they're a quality-efficient offense, even if they're a little bit frustrating from a fantasy perspective. I think we're looking at an easy double-digit target sort of game from Calvin Ridley.

and when you give him 10 plus targets, very good things can happen. We've seen that happen on a handful of occasions this season. When he gets 10 or more targets, Kelvin Ridley has scored at least 19.7 draft kings points in each of those contests. The ceiling is in the 30s, and that's exactly what you want. So I think within that entire group, that's sort of the high-end expectation for all those players. And if you can pay almost 1,000 less than the top options at the wide receiver position to get Ridley, he's a great play at that price. We talked about this on, God, I've got to go back in my head.

It was Tuesday's episode of Fantasy Football in 15. Calvin Ridley's the one guy in Atlanta's offense who I feel good about without Julio Jones. I'm very worried about Matt Ryan. We already know that Todd Gurley is a touchdown dependent volume sort of guy. Ridley's the one guy who I feel like the floor doesn't really change at all for him when Julio Jones is off the field. So I'm with you on liking him quite a bit. And I think he leads us into a discussion about the Tampa Bay receivers also where where those guys are priced.

I mean, we know that because of all three of them being there together, none of them has the ceiling that he had the last time that they all weren't teammates. But still, when you're talking about being able to get someone like Chris Godwin at $6,000, Mike Evans at $6,100, Antonio Brown, $5,700, in a matchup with the chiefs that we expect to be able to push some pace. I mean, there's almost no wrong way to go with a Tampa Bay receiver. And I almost feel like I automatically want one of them. Like if you gave me the option of don't take a Tampa Bay receiver or I'll put all three of their names in a hack, you pick one out and have to play that one. I'm going with the latter.

Yeah, I think they're all clustered in price too. So you really just left to your own devices trying to look at individual matchups or trying to decide who you think might be the least utilized of the bunch if you're playing in a tournament. you're just trying to get some leverage that way. I kind of default to Godwin. I think he's the best all-around receiver of the bunch. But there's definitely a scenario in which they continue to split targets, and it's 1A, 1B, 1C, where they're all sort of in the 10 to 20 range among wide receivers

in PPR leagues each week. And it's almost impossible for me to sit here and say that one clearly has a higher ceiling than the other. I think I'm basing a lot of that on what we thought of these players coming into the season. But I think you'll see some combination of those guys, or at least one of them, as a frequent runback for any lineups that are using members of that Chief's offense. If you're playing Clyde Edwards-Halear, you're playing Travis Kelsey, you're playing Tyreek Hill, you're probably coming back with one of those bucks receivers and for good reason.

Yeah, hard to get, the problem with that I have with some of the higher-price receivers is that it's hard to get one of them plus one of the big backs, plus these guys that I like a lot in the $56 to $6,200 range at the receiver position all into the same lineup. It makes it tricky and it makes it a little bit easier to talk yourself out of any of those high-priced receivers, even though I really do like Stefan Diggs as the route for getting invested in the Buffalo Chargers game. Someone who I like a lot at this position, Derek, who is almost an auto play for me, is Michael Pittman Jr. You referenced him a little bit when we were talking about the Colts and Titans game being one that you might want to get invested in still just $5,000. I don't know why he only got three targets in that game against the

Packers a week ago, especially when I think was that his first target of the game? Had he turned into the 45-yard touchdown? I mean, and we saw what he can do. We saw it a week before that. I mean, he is clearly the best receiver and arguably the most dangerous player on that Colts offense. I just don't think after what we saw from him that they could watch, you know, they could go, go through an entire week of practice, watch the game tape, and not say, whoa, we got to get this guy more than three targets in every single game for the rest of the season. So getting him at $5,000 feels like a huge bargain to me, and he's going to be a staple in my lineups. Yeah, he fits so well because he does open up a lot of salary for the upgrades that you want elsewhere, while still bringing you the kind of ceiling you're looking for at the wide receiver position. We saw it just a couple weeks ago in his first meeting against the Titans, 22.2 Draft King's points, seven catches for 100.

and one yards on eight targets also carried the ball once for 21 yards in that matchup. I think seven to eight targets like we saw in weeks nine and ten is more likely the script. I think what happened in that Colts Packers matchup is the Colts realized in the second half of that game, the Packers had no answer for the Colts running game. So it was really just, hey, let's just keep running the ball because it's working. And unfortunately, Pittman was the guy that sort of suffered usage-wise as a result of that game plan adjustment. Yeah, yeah, definitely. It was one where it worked for the Colts in real life, not exactly we were hoping for in the fantasy world. But those are the sorts of guys. I mean, that's right. It's James White, who we talked about plus Michael Pittman. That makes a $9,500 Delvin Cook possible. Anyone else at this wide receiver position you look at to open up those avenues for going after the big running backs, maybe getting invested in one of the big quarterbacks?

Yeah, I mean, if James White ends up being really popular to the point where you don't feel like you want to use them in tournaments, I think you could try to get to one of the Patriots receivers instead. Jacoby Myers is 5300. I think I recommend him every week at this point. It was a bust last week. Demir Bird's only 4,100. He's the guy that went off last week. I still prefer Myers, but after what we saw last week, you can't completely dismiss Bird being a perfectly fine tournament option at 4,100. The two punt plays at Y'Intyre. receiver are Denzel Mims and KJ Hamler. Hamler's got 26 targets over the last three games, 3,500 matchup against the Saints isn't great, but if you're looking to save a lot of money because you're paying up for a couple of stars in your lineup, kind of doing the stars and scrubs thing, Hamler at least has enough of a role where I think he kind of makes some sense. Denzel Mims is interesting, back-to-back games with eight targets, also 3,500 like Hamler, going up against the Dolphins. If you think it's a bounceback week for two, at Tunga Viloa in the Dolphins offense.

Somebody in that Jets passing game has to do some damage. It's weird because James and Crowder has not had the same target share in these last two games that he was getting prior to his injury. I do think there's a chance he starts to tick back up in usage, but even if that happens, there's enough to go around for Mims to continue seeing plenty of opportunities. Like Mims, and I like Breshad Perman. Perman's at 4,200, so a little bit more expensive than Mims, but we know he has that big playability.

He's got touchdowns in the last couple of games for the Jets here too. And it is a game that I think that we're going to see some scoring in because of how bad the Jets defense is. And the fact that the Jets' offense hasn't been hopeless over the last few weeks. They've actually shown some signs of life. So I do think that's a nice way to get invested in cheap receivers allowing you to get some of the bigger play names into your lineups. Let's throw things over to the quarterback position here, Derek, one where we do like to go cheap often enough. but man, I mean, Kyla Murray, Patrick Wilhelms, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert. These are guys who have very high floors.

They have very high ceilings. They are involved in some of the games that were interested in this week. And I don't know, man, I got to be honest. I really want to try to find ways to get Josh Allen into my lineup. I love the fact that they're coming off a buy. I love the matchup both defensively and offensively up against the Chargers. Defensively, I mean, I think Josh Allen can take advantage offensively. I mean, I think Justin Herbert and the Chargers can take advantage.

advantage of the bills. I think this is going to be the highest scoring game of the week. And I like Josh Allen as my entry point for this game. So even though we're often recommending cheap plays, I just keep looking at these positions and thinking this might not be a bad week to spend up. And I find myself landing on Josh Allen quite a bit. Yeah, it makes sense. The projections are really good for that matchup. He's a bit cheaper than Mahomes and Murray. You could still get exposure to those other offenses without having the quarterbacks involved. And with Allen, you're looking at him as a guy that's in a situation where they haven't really figured out the running game at this point. And I think that kind of bumps up my expectation slightly in terms of the possibility of a rushing touchdown,

which is always nice. That might be the one thing that kind of separates him from some other quarterbacks in that range. I mean, Kyler Murray runs a ton too. But I look at a lot of the other 7K quarterbacks most weeks when Aaron Rogers is up there. And I'm not really expecting a rushing TD. but with Josh Allen, that's sort of a built-in expectation at this point. I think the case for Derek Carr is pretty compelling. 5,700 is very cheap. The Falcons defense is very bad.

And saving 2K or even more compared to some of those top-end quarterbacks does free up a lot of that extra money you need if you're trying to spend up for premium receivers. If you wanted to spend up for Cook plus at least a second tier running back, it's going to cost you if you don't want to end up in the 4K pit of disparate tight end. All of those things might talk you out of paying up at quarterback because Carr has such a great matchup. But the list of quarterbacks under 6K that I actually want to play this week is very short. It's one of the shortest ones we've seen in recent weeks. And I think you could even extend it to the list of quarterbacks that I really am interested in playing in below 6,500.

It starts with Cam Newton at 64. Then we've got Teddy Bridgewater, who we expect to come back. 63, Taysam Hill, 62. Rivers and Cousins are both at 61. You've got golf at 6,000. Tua at 59, also with Matt Ryan there, who I have zero interest in without Julio Jones. Ryan Tanhill's 58.

Give it on the card, 57. I mean, I don't want to play really any of those guys, and that is also what's pushing me to paying up for one of the high-price quarterbacks. I got to be honest with you, Derek, if Gardner Minshu is able to return this week, and this is something we have no clue, about as you and I are recording this and probably won't know about till Friday or Saturday.

But if he's able to get back for Jacksonville this week at home against Cleveland in a game that Cleveland should be able to at least put some points up on the board and force Jacksonville to do the same, a $5,600 guardier Minchu is attractive to me, even though we have to acknowledge a quarterback coming back from an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. You're rolling the dice a little bit without seeing that guy play if you're just going to throw him into your lineup blindly. Yeah, I don't think I'm quite there. I think if I was going to do something risky under 7K, relatively speaking,

I talked about the Titans up top, Ryan Tannahill, 5,800. I think you could pair him with A.J. Brown, and you get a nice combination of high ceiling with low usage in tournaments. I'd be more inclined to do something like that. I wonder if you can get Matt Ryan at lower usage than expected at 5,900, thinking about that matchup, but playing him if Julio doesn't go, certainly adds another element of risk, because as much as we like Kelvin Ridley,

how good do you feel about the other options in that offense, right? I mean, Hayden Hurst is kind of okay, and then Russell Gage is just your typical slot guy that doesn't bring a ton of ceiling. So it breaks down pretty fast, depth-wise, in the Falcons offense. So I'd probably be more Tanna Hill over Ryan for tournament purposes if I'm trying to do something different under 6K. And then, of course, the two-a-bounce-back question is lingering out there.

Along with the, what do we really think of Taysam Hill, at 6,200 this week on Draft Kings going on the road to Denver. How much is he going to be utilized and do you feel comfortable playing him? I don't feel comfortable playing him. Last week was great. He made me crow for sure. But let's also be honest about what he was through the air. There were some balls that were fortunate to be caught.

The one big play to Emmanuel Sanders that was like a 50-yard gain was a ball that should have been a touchdown, frankly. I mean, Emmanuel Sanders had whoever was covering him beat comfortably. deep and Taysam under threw it by literally like six or seven yards and was lucky that Emmanuel Sanders was able to adjust to that. Even if that's just an incomplete, forget about it being an interception. Even if that's just incomplete, you're taking 40 yards off the board and suddenly a 10 yard per attempt smash of a game through the air efficiency-wise becomes like a solid eight-yard

per attempt game through the air. And I think we're talking about him in a little bit different of a way. He needs the rushing touchdown. And he obviously can do it very often and he's going to do it very often. and he's going to do it very often. But even if he just has the one rushing touchdown versus the two he had last week, we're talking about a QB 14 week out of him rather than a top five quarterback week. I mean, that's what you're hoping for.

We talked about it on this show on Monday or Tuesday. He's like Cam Newton. He's a version of Cam Newton. And if he runs for two scores, he has a great game. If he runs for one score, he has a fine game. If he doesn't run for any, you're probably not very happy with it. So I want to stay off of the Taysam Hill train this week. Let's move over to the tight end position here now.

Travis Kelsey, $7,000, $6,000, and then the rest of the position that we have come to know and not exactly love. Are you even trying to find a way to get one of those expensive guys to your lineup this week? I think if I can get to one, it's only going to be Waller at 6K. It's been tough so far for the reasons that we've talked about. If you look at the points per dollar metric, which is a good way to sort to find value. value, it's going to lead you right to the mid 4K range. It's going to bring you to the Evan Ingram at 4,500, Hunter Henry at 4,800, and Hayden Hearst at 3,900. If we get confirmation that Julio Jones is out, I think Haydenhurst is going to be the default cash game tight end because

of the way builds are going to work overall this week with people spending up everywhere else. Yeah, I think that's true, too. I look at the Henry Ingram as the sweet spot. We've got Hunter Henry checking in at $4,800 and Evan Ingram at $4,500. That feels like a spot to me where I'm not spending too much. I feel like I'm probably getting good value out of those guys, and I'm not just totally throwing the position away. So that's really who I'm looking at. And maybe we're not giving the Giants enough credit going up against the Bengals.

We didn't mention Daniel Jones at all, but $5,500 for him might be another good way to get a cheap quarterback that gives you avenues of investment elsewhere. Let's wrap things up, Derek. defense position. Anyone do you want to make a case for this week? No strong case for any particular defense. I was looking at the Raiders as a punt, and usually I just don't care. And this one, I look at the game log because I can't recall them having a good game this season. They've had one useful fantasy game. So I would just say as you punt at defense, it's probably worthwhile to steer around the Raiders. They don't get pressure. Only 11 sacks this

season. They've had five or fewer fantasy points every single time out in 2020 other than week 10 against Denver. So I think the Broncos at 2,200 for 100 less makes sense. You put the Chiefs on our show sheet at 2,700. At least they're going to get pressure. They're going to sack Tom Brady a few times. They might force a turnover and any team can score a defensive touchdown or a special teams touchdown and change your fortunes that way. So for me this week, it's a word of caution. Raiders defense is just a tootless unit and you want to look for something else in that price range. Yeah, I like the Chiefs because we know what pressure up the middle can do to Tom Brady. We've seen it a few times in the season, the Bears, the Rams just last week. The Chiefs can do

that too. So I think that they're a team that can create a little bit of havoc even though they're not going to totally shut down what the Buccaneers do offensively. I'll also throw the Broncos out there at home against the Saints. You give Vic Fangio and Ed Donatel a full games worth of how the Saints plan to deploy Taysam Hill as an actual quarterback, give them a week to plan for that, to coach for that. I think they can come up with some things that make life a little bit harder on Taysam Hill than the Falcons were able to do a week ago. There is $2,200 also.

So a nice little punt at this position that actually could produce at least a few sacks, maybe a turnover or two, and that's always what we're looking for at the defense position. And so what we're looking for, even on a Tuesday as we record this on this portion of the athletic fantasy football, podcast and the athletic football show. Derek, have a good weekend, man. Enjoy the rest of the holiday. Yeah, you too. Hope everybody's enjoying their holiday weekend. All right, we move on now to the gambling portion of the show. And to do that, we bring on Vic Tafer. Vic, how you doing today? So good, bud. How are you doing? I am doing well. Also, so you know how this works. I do the first half of the show with Derek Van Riper, who's also in our fantasy department, the audio department. He and I do

DFS talk. Then you come on, we do against the spread talk. Now, usually, Derek and I record at some point on Thursday afternoon. You and I record on some point on Thursday afternoon. This goes on Friday, all good. Derek and I, because of a Thanksgiving week, we recorded on Tuesday. You and I are recording on Wednesday. So again, everyone, you already heard the DFS portion, the ATS portion of the show, also going to be a little bit more moving parts ahead of us than there is in a typical week. So just wanted to make sure that we all knew that, even though this is coming out to you. you on Friday. We are doing this well in advance. Let's look

back at week 11, Vic, a three and two week for you. Wins on Houston, Dallas, and Vegas. Losses on Jacksonville. We were just joking around about them before we started recording here. And the Bengals, that Bengals won. Obviously, Joe Burroughs injury early in the second half had a lot to do

with it. Anything else about those five games while you pick, jump out at you? No, actually, I was able to watch the games that sports football before the Carreras game was in that game. So, you know, the Joe Burrow thing, It was obviously sad for football fans, but just to watch the quick reaction of the players, his teammates. Obviously, it was just horrible.

It was a horrible injury for them in the whole franchise. But, no, I mean, that was the biggest, take it way from me as that game, just how sad it was, and how bad we jockees are. I'm not sure what I was thinking, picking them to win that game. May I've been trying to torture myself. You know, they had to watch it

and kind of punish myself for a bad year. But they're truly awful. I mean, truly, truly, they definitely will deserve the top overall pick when they get it. Hey, so we're feeling a Jets win at some point. We're going to be talking about both of those teams, in fact, are involved in our combined 10 picks. It was an ugly week for me, one and four. My lone win came on the Titans. I guess silver lining for me was that that was also my upset pick,

and they did upset the Ravens winning that game outright. But then four losses, Arizona failed me again, fading Indianapolis, That failed me again, too, with the Packers blowing a 14-point halftime lead, losing that game in overtime. The Dolphins just looked all sorts of mess against Denver. And then the Chiefs against the Raiders taking a win, but not covering the spread. So you get a win in our head-to-head record. So I am now 6'1-1 in the head-to-head. We had no consensus, so we remain 5 and 7 for the season.

You are at 22-32-1. I am at 29-25-1. Let's fire up week 12. We're just going to look at the Sunday games. We're going to just push aside the two Thanksgiving games, which have not happened as of our recording, but will happen as of you listening to this. Those are obviously Texans Lions,

which I actually do like the Texans in that one quite a bit. And Washington and Dallas, let's throw things ahead to Sunday. Let's, you know what, let's throw out a couple of games first that neither of us are picking. We've got Raiders at Falcons. Raiders are three-point favorites on the road in Atlanta, 55 and a half, the over-under on that game. Let me just get your take on that, Vic, as someone who is very close to the Raiders,

as one of our Raiders beat riders. What's your feel for that game with the Raiders heading across country to take on the Falcons? Yeah, my first feel that was a bad spot for him, I think, obviously may have been able to let down after that tough loss. And the Falcons, I think are a little bit dangerous at home. But my new feeling is I think the Raiders are pretty mad. I think the Raiders definitely took that loss the right way. There's more anger than sadness. so I think they realize that they're the better team on Sunday.

They should be able to run the ball. I think I'd pass the ball. So I think their offense is just too good right now to really suffer a loss of the Falcons. So I'm picking the Raiders and that one. Yeah, I think that's the lean for me also, not one that I'm going to pick. But we've seen that Falcons offense really struggle without Julio Jones. And as early in the week as it still is, it does sound like Julio is going to be pretty iffy for this one with that hamstring injury.

And that offense falls apart without Julio. so I think they could really struggle to keep up with the Raiders if Julio Jones isn't out there. Next game, Vic, I'm doing it. I am backing away from the Arizona Cardinals, at least for one week. They're two and a half point favorites in New England against the Patriots. We are both staying away from that one.

Next game on the board, Giants minus six. Yes, the Giants minus six at the Bengals. 43 is the over-under on this one. Here we have a pick. It is me who has the pick. And I'm going with the Giants, Vic. I mean, this Bengals team, we saw what a half of offense for them looks like without Joe Burrow. It was ugly.

Ryan Finley finished out that game for the Bengals. We know Brandon Allen will be the starter. We learned also on Wednesday that Giovanni Bernard suddenly has a concussion. So he probably not going to play similar to the D'Andre Swift timeline that we saw a week ago. When you get a concussion in practice basically means you are for sure going to miss that game. And I don't think Giovanni Bernard is necessarily a needle mover. but without Joe Burrow, they need every single piece of offense they can get. Now you're talking about a starting backfield of Brandon Allen and Samagee P. Ryan.

That is just really not what you want. This Giants team, too, Vic. I mean, you know, they're three and seven. No one's going to confuse them necessarily with a good team. But they've been in basically every game they've played this year. Go all the way back to week one, 2616, a loss to the Steelers, a game that they were, you know, within punchers range for the entire game. lost a tough game in Chicago the next week, 1713.

Then they got blown up by San Francisco. And then look, the rest of the season is all one-score games. The losses are all one-score. 17-9 to the Rams. 37-34 to Dallas. That was a game that Dak Prescott played most of before he suffered his season-ending injury. A 22-21 loss to Philly, a 25-23 loss to Tampa. And then wins over Washington twice.

And Philadelphia, the Giants are a little bit better than you would assume just by seeing a 3-and-7 record. and going up against this totally, totally short-handed Cincinnati team with a bad defense also on the other side of the ball from them being short-handed offensively. I think the Giants can pretty easily take control of this game. So I am backing a six-point road favorite New York Giants team, which I sort of can't believe. Where are you leaning on this game?

Yeah, I'm with you. I can't believe you, take it the Giants minus six on the road. That's just don't care who they're playing. That sounds like a bad idea. So I'll lean. I know. Just a principle. I've watched both teams this year.

They're both not very good, but I just can't lay six in a row with the Giants. So I'll go the other way. But just really based on the line, not based on the Bengals being a surprise, your pick and their offense is going to click all of a sudden. It was the last pick I put in. It was the last of my five games that I put in.

And I wasn't super confident in it necessarily. But the more I thought about it, the more I felt like they've been competitive and this Cincinnati team, I just can't see them doing much of anything offensively with Brandon Allen as the quarterback. So that's what I came back to. I kept coming back to it.

I kept circling back to it. Giants, they are my fifth. If I was going to include a Thursday game, I would maybe throw Houston ahead of them, but that hasn't treated me well for a couple of weeks here. So I figured stick to Sunday, go with the New York Giants. Next game I'm going to talk about here. I'm actually going to skip down our show sheet a little bit

and go to one of the games that you have picked. The other New York team playing at home, the New York Jets. They are seven-point underdogs. With the dolphins coming to town, 44 and a half is the old. over under. You like the Miami Dolphins to cover the seven points. Why do you think they bounce back from what was really an ugly showing in Denver a week ago?

Yeah, your defense will play well. I think Joe Flacco had some nice stats in the end of the game last week, kind of covered the spread, kind of back door-wise. But I think the dolphins are definitely better defensively in the charge. I think they'll definitely bounce back. I'm not sure what Tula status is, but I think it'll play probably. He'll probably bounce back. So I think they're just taking the much better team, and I think the Jets are not quite there yet to get a win. Not quite yet. Yeah. You're right about it being a backdoor cover, but now we've seen that a couple of weeks from them last week against the Chargers, the week before, against the Patriots. And I do think

that the Dolphins have better defense than both of those teams. But I'm just a little worried about the competence we've seen from the Joe Flacco led Jets offense to feel totally comfortable with laying the seven on the road, plus lingering feelings about getting burned by Miami a week ago. I know we shouldn't let those influence our next thing. Every game is a different. its own unique ecosystem, but I'm staying away from it. It does look like a game that can't be tempting, but I'm going to lean away from the dolphins. I would actually lean toward the jets in this one, but nowhere near a way that I would feel

comfortable making them one of my top five picks. A couple more games in this early slate where neither of us has a selection. Vikings minus three and a half against the Panthers, 51 the over under there. Colts minus three against the Titans. 51 is the over under there. Vic, again, I am not backing the car. I told myself, don't back the Cardinals. No matter what, don't fade the Colts, no matter what.

You've got to take at least a week off of those. So I'm staying away from the Colts Titans game as well. Let's move on to a game where one of us just have a pick. This one is me. Browns at the Jaguars. The Browns are minus six and a half in Jacksonville. 49 is the over under. You said it.

This team is just terrible. This Jacksonville team is really, really awful. And they were a bad team with Gardner Minchu, but at least Minchu provided some floor for their offense. You knew that the offense, in most games wasn't going to fall apart. They would probably have a bomb out spot here or there, but that the offense was going to be generally competent

as bad as the team was with Minchu in there. Without Minchu in there, all bets are off. We saw it with Jake Luton last week against Pittsburgh, and we are going to see it with Mike Glennon now at the helm against the Browns in this game. No Miles Garrett, obviously, that hurts the Browns, but the Browns have, no one's going to confuse the Browns with a legitimate Super Bowl contender, right?

but they're seven and three for a reason. They take care of business against the teams that they should take care of business against. And we have now seen two games with Nick Chub back in there and what that does for this offense. I mean, they are one of these true old school teams that can throw it back and totally control a game on the ground. I would like to see a little bit more Chubb and a little bit less Kareem Hunt on the ground for this team, a little bit more Kareem in the passing game, especially with O'Dell Beckham off the table for them. I think they need a couple more playmakers or a couple more playmaking opportunities. in the passing game, but really do like the fact that they can control games offensively

and that they know who they are offensively. They've got the right personnel, the right coach, and Kevin Stefanski, who did this in Minnesota with Dalvin Cook, who wants to do this in Cleveland with Nick Chubb and Cream Hunting, who is showing that they can execute this sort of game plan week in and week out, especially against inferior opponents like they're going to get in Jacksonville. I just don't see how Jacksonville's offense can keep pace at all with Miles Garrett, without Miles Garrett really doesn't matter here. I think the Browns control this one.

And hey, the Browns have got to be excited about the fact that they're going to play a game in normal weather, right? They had the two wind games. They had a buy in between, and then they had the crazy rain against the Eagles last week. At least this weekend, Jacksonville, the weather looks normal. They got to be excited about that. I really like the Browns. One of my favorite plays of the week.

You have no pick on this one. Where is your lean? With me or against me? I'm with you. That's probably my sixth pick if I did six. I think I agree with you on the weather. I think that we'll be able to pass the ball this week against that Jags defense.

So it should be a good spot for them. I think it's done a good job against bad teams this year so far. So I think that will continue. And it should be a relatively easy one, I think. That should be able to cover with no problem. Yeah, I really like the Browns to move to eight and three in this one and win it by more than a touchdown. Last game in the early slate,

Bills minus five and a half against the Chargers. 53 and a half is the over under. I wavered on this one. I felt like I knew I wanted to pick it because, you know, when in doubt I like backing teams that I believe in and teams that I know what their identity is, even if they are playing another team like that. And that's true about both of these teams. So even though I wavered on what my selection was going to be, I felt comfortable that I was going to pick this game. We are on the same side here. We both like the home bills minus five and a half taking on the chargers.

I will let you get our bill's argument started. I got the more talented team. We got the better coach team. also at home. So I think it's a great spot. I think Justin Herbert probably will have a hard time against his defense he's had the last few weeks. So I think it's a good spot for him. I think they've had some rest, time to get ready for this game. So I like it. I like it a lot. Two of those things is what pushed me to the bills over the Chargers because my instinct was Chargers. My instinct was Justin Herbert, the way this offense has played. They can keep this game within a touchdown, even though I don't think they really have any chance of winning the game.

But two things pushed me to the bills. Number one, one thing you mentioned there, the coaching difference. Sean McDonough versus Anthony Lynn. I really like, or Sean McDermott. Sean McDunna calls football games, doesn't coach football games. Sean McDermott versus Anthony Lynn. Give me McDermott 10 times out of 10. Really like that for the bills in this one. And then the fact that they're coming off a buy. I mean, you've got Sean McDermott with two full weeks to prepare for this game coming off the by versus Anthony Lynn, just having the normal week. I really think that that is what pushes the game in favor of the bills. They also should be getting John Brown back. So they've got a fully healthy offense.

available to them really do like what we've seen from this offense all season long. And while the defense hasn't been anywhere near what it was last season, I think the offense is going to put them in some pretty good positions here in this game. We will wait and see if Austin Echler gets activated from IR. It doesn't look likely for this week. He is going to be back for the Chargers at some point this season. Either way, with Echler without Echler, the bills are the pick here. Minus five and a half think that the Chargers defense really is going to not have any sort of answer for what the bills do offensively. In our late window, started with three games.

We now have four games. That is because Steelers and Ravens, which was supposed to be played on Thanksgiving night, gets postponed to this Sunday late window. There's no line actually on it right now. They brought it off the board when the game got pushed back. It was sitting at minus four. And this was 24 hours before the game was supposed to be played.

It was sitting at minus four. So I feel like it's probably going to come back up on the board at minus four. And I love the Steelers in this spot at home against a Ravens team that that offense from 2019 just isn't happening. So we talked about it a week ago. We talked about it when I picked the Titans last week. At 2019, Ravens' offense was extinguished by the Titans in January of 2020 in that playoff upset. And we're just not going to see it. And I don't think that this team can beat the Steelers team in Pittsburgh, a team that they've already lost to at home,

without having the sort of dynamic offense that we saw from them in 2019, especially when you factor in that this game is pushed back to Sunday, but you still have no J.K. Dobbins on the field for the Ravens. J.K. Dobbins is going to be out of this game after testing positive for COVID-19. So now you're talking about Gus Edwards pushing up to the top of the depth chart, a fine running back, but nowhere near the explosive threat that Dobbins is. Marquis Brown has been a ghost all season without Brown doing what he did for them last year, without J.K. Dobbins available.

you just don't really have any speed that you have to honor on Baltimore's side of the ball. I mean, Willie Sneed, Devin Duvernay, I just don't think that any of those guys are going to strike any sort of fear in the hearts of the Pittsburgh defense. I really think that Pittsburgh's offense on the other side, but the way that they've been clicking through the air can get after this Baltimore defense. The defense that has been victimized a little bit in recent weeks. So if this one comes back up at minus four, minus five, minus five and a half, basically anything inside a touchdown, I really like Pittsburgh in this one. No pick for you. Where are you leaning on it?

Yeah, I don't know quite how the Steelers are 10-0, but I agree with you about the pandemic stuff. I think it's hard to back to Ravens Basin the guys are going to not have this weekend. Plus, it don't seem like they have the same toughness I had a year ago. So I think they've lost something in the past year. So I definitely will take the Steelers whenever that line comes back up. All right, we've got three boarded games here,

and we have picks and all of them. You have two. I have one. Let's get to one that you are picking. New Orleans Saints. Tasem Hill gets a win in his first career start, 24-9 over the Falcons a week ago, and now takes the team to Denver to take on the Broncos where the Saints are six-point favorites. 43 and a half is the over-under, and you are buying the Saints once again.

I am with you on this. I'm not making it a pick, but it is the way I lean. Since you have the confidence to make it a pick, let us know why. I think they're on a little bit of a roll right now. I think Hill gives them a little energy boost. I think that you see the team kind of was definitely fired. up for him. I think they're going to keep playing that way for him. I think they want him to succeed. And obviously,

gets them a different look at offense, so they're harder to prepare for it now. So I like to where they're headed, both sides of the ball. They'd like to have some confidence now. And the Broncos, they covered, actually won last week, so I'm not just covered, but I'm not sure Juulac can do that twice in a row. So I'm going with the Saints.

That defense looked pretty good against Miami a week ago. Now they've got a full games worth of tape of Taysam Hill as a quarterback, a week to prepare with a, you know, very respected defensive head coach and Vic Fangio at Donatel running that defense. Not concerned at all about what they've got dialed up for Hill? Oh, I am, definitely. Normally I go with the home dogs.

I mean, I'm trying to change some things up this year based on my success. But I'm just going to go simply, you know, I'm trying to start the new, the best team strategy. You know, the best team by far on the field will be the Saints. I think the home thing is worrisome. You're right, the defense definitely can be tricky at times to the Broncos. But I just like the Saints the way of playing, where they approach the ball. on both sides right now. So I think they'll go keep rolling.

All right. I will take the baton. I will take the mic and I will make my fifth and final pick of the slate. I've got no picks in the night games. This is actually the lone 425 Eastern kickoff on Sunday. Chiefs at Buccaneers, probably the marquee game of the week. The Chiefs are three and a half point favorites in Tampa. 56 is the over-under.

And I'm basically taking exactly what you just said about the Saints with the Broncos. there's maybe not as big a gap between Kansas City and Tampa as there is between New Orleans and Denver, but I think comfortably the better team is the Chiefs. And I said somewhere along the way this season, if you are asking me to back a Patrick Mahomes team that is only being asked to win by a field goal, I'm going to feel comfortable taking that Patrick Mahomes team. So I'll extend it a little bit here with that getting out to three and a half. And, you know, we don't need to talk about Mahomes and the offense and what they do. I want to talk about the defense.

I mean, if you look at the teams against which Tom Brady has struggled this season, look at the Rams a week ago and what they were able to do against Tom Brady on Monday night football, really made life uncomfortable for him, 216 yards, two touchdowns, but two interceptions, four and a half yards per attempt. Go back two weeks before that against the Saints, 22 for 38, 209 yards, no touchdowns, three picks, five and a half yards per attempt. Go back to what now looks like a very surprising loss for the Buccaneers in week five against the He didn't throw any picks in that game, but just better than six yards per attempt,

needed 41 pass attempts to get to a measly, 253 yards. What do all those teams have in common? Every single one of those teams can get pressure up the middle, and Tom Brady against pressure up the middle is, and that's his kryptonite, right? That's the way you really disrupt Tom Brady and, by extension, the Tampa Bay offense. The Chiefs can get pressure up the middle, they can get pressure on the quarterback. So I think in addition to what Mahomes is going to be able to do in what is definitely a tough assignment, this defense is going to follow a blueprint set out by the Rams, by the Saints, by the Bears,

and make life really, really tough on Tom Brady. I think the Chiefs win this one relatively comfortably where you add on this game. I might be going leading the other way. I think the Bucks, I mean, I think this is a good spot. Front of their defense, their front fork could also apply some pressure. Oh, for sure. I think they'll be able to keep the game close. I think Tom Brady probably bounces back from lack of this game.

The Chiefs last week pretty much clinched to AFC West. I'm not sure. I mean, obviously not be a letdown to go against the Bucks, but I'm not sure there are going to be a huge sense of urgency for them to win, I mean, to win going away. So I think it'll be a close game. I think that three and a half is going to be tricky. I think I can see the cheese winning by a field goal, and that's why I kind of lean towards the bucks.

And we don't have any head-to-head picks among our five, but we are at odds on quite a few of these selections. So maybe we don't have any actually on the record. Which is good for you. We can still cheer for each other. Yeah, you're going to kick in my butt. this year, so it's probably a good sign for you. Hey, it's good that we can cheer for each other, even though we still have maybe some other

things happening off the show. It's nice that we can root for each other's show picks for sure over this Thanksgiving weekend. We can give thanks for that. The final game that we haven't talked about yet in the late window on Sunday is Rams and 49ers. This is one where I don't have a pick, but I agree with the one that you are putting on the record here. Rams are minus seven against the 49ers.

45 is the over under these Rams coming off another impressive victory, and you think they follow it up with a comfortable one against the 49ers. Make the rationale for this Rams pick. Yeah, you take away that one loss in Miami, which I think is predictable. Going to Miami is a tough road game. And the tough road to think of the upswing. So you take away that one loss,

they kind of would have won four in a row. They're on a nice role. I think their offense looks really good now all of a sudden. The running game is going. They've got the passing game going. Jerry Gough is very confident. And you got Aaron Donald, obviously, and some guys are making – Aaron Don actually wasn't a huge presence.

I mean, it was a huge factor, I should say, last week. But they still defense played pretty well. Zena Ramsey's definitely one of the top guys in the league now. So I like to – overall, the team's playing a while. So I think we'll talk about revenge sometimes. Definitely they lost in Nair is the first time. I'm sure they want to avenge that. And I think they should be able to against Nick Mullins.

This is a team that really is peaking as we start to approach the final quarter of the season. the way that they have played offensively, defensively, really getting the best out of everyone on the roster with the way that they've played on both sides of the ball. I really like this pick. It's probably the one with the Texans that just missed making it into my top five selections. But I really do like the Rams this Sunday. I think they do avenge that earlier loss to the 49ers.

Sunday night football. Congratulations, America. One more game with the Chicago Bears on prime time. And not just the Chicago Bears, but it sounds like, at least as of Wednesday at 5.30 central time, like you're getting Mitch Trubisky back as the starter as well. No pick for either of us on this one. Packers are eight and a half point favorites.

45 is the over under Monday night football. One more pick for you to make, Vic. It is here on this game. Seahawks minus five at the Philadelphia Eagles. 50 is the over under Seahawks. Of course, coming off a big win last Thursday against the Arizona Cardinals. so they've got 11 days off here from Thursday to Monday night, plenty of time to prepare for an inferior foe.

Does that at all play into why you like the Seahawks to go into Philly and cover the five? It does. And also, I mentioned I watched all the games last week. I got to watch Mr. Carson once again. He really has really fallen off. It's amazing. I can't even describe how bad he is right now. I just, and he's like, supposedly the best thing they have an offense.

So I think the Seahawks defense is going to get some guys back. I was getting healthier. We saw the newcomer at last. who've done a lot to have a big game. So the defense is trying to make a little progress. It should be enough, I think, to cover the spread this game. I think they're definitely, they're Pete Carroll staff at the game. They definitely feel like they're about to go on the roll.

I kind of agree with them. I think they definitely seem like they're poised to have a much better finish than they have a start. Those season-long defensive stats are going to look bad no matter what at the end of the season because of how bad they were over the first half of the year. But if you've watched them the last two, three games, they look like a totally, last two games. Three games ago was when they gave up 44 to the season. the bills. The last two games against the Rams in Arizona, they've held them to a combined 37 points.

They look like a completely different defense. You absolutely love what you have seen from the Seahawks in those games. And I think that this is going to be something that plays forward. This is a much different defense now than it was even just three, four weeks ago. And I agree with you. Carson Went to me, that pick six he threw. That was if you, if you put like a robot in a lab and made him, designed him to only throw pick sixes. That would be his go-to throw. Just floater into the flat outside of the field. I mean, just a comically bad throw from Carson Wentz.

And this Eagles team, I think that they will be giving up first place in the division this week with Dallas and Washington winner of that moving to four and seven. And hey, like the Giants to move to four and seven as well in their game against the Bengals. Let's wrap things up here and also throw out one upset pick. So you're five on the board this week. You have the Buffalo Bills, minus five and a half against the chargers. Dolphins, they are minus seven at the Jets. This is a reverse from last week, Vic.

Saints, minus six at the Broncos. Rams minus seven at home against the 49ers. Seahawks minus five at Philadelphia on Monday night football. You go from five dogs to five favorites here in week 12. I've got the Giants. A lot of favorites for us, actually. I've got the Giants minus six in Cincinnati. Brown's minus six and a half at Jacksonville.

Bill's with you. on them minus five and a half against the Chargers. Steelers, minus four is likely going to be the line. It's going to be somewhere in there. I will tweet it out and I will commit to whatever it is at home against the Ravens. And finally, Chiefs. So we're going 10 for 10 on favorites. Chiefs minus three and a half at Tampa Bay.

Your upset pick of the week is. I go to the Titans. I think we both rough loss weeks ago in that game. The punting game, the field goal kicker. But I think they'll bounce back. I know we didn't make it a pick. But I feel pretty good about it. I think they're in a good spot to avenge that loss and went out right.

I just can't do it. I can't do it. I mean, I've faded the Colts at least two shows in a row, and I can't remember if I did it the one before that, and they've both been losses. I keep wanting to think this team is worse than it is. I think I have to own up and just say that they're making it work, that the defense is legit, that Philip Rivers is a good fit for what they want to do offensively. Michael Pittman, Jr., the emergence of a real receiving weapon for them definitely adds a different weapon to the offense, a different look to the offense. but I still like the Titans in this one. I'm not picking it as one of my five, obviously, excuse me,

but I do think that the Titans are a nice upset pick three-point dogs going into Indy Inn. What is a huge game, winner of that game has the inside track to the AFC South title. That's going to do it for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Vic, I know we're recording this on Wednesday, so Thanksgiving for you and I as we sit here talking to each other as tomorrow. Everyone who's listening to this, Thanksgiving already has. happened either way, whether it's now, whether it's then, whatever.

Let me wish you and yours, Vic, a happy Thanksgiving. You too, man. Have Thanksgiving. And to you all out there, whenever you're enjoying this, Friday, Saturday, whenever it might be, we hope you are having a great, safe, happy Thanksgiving weekend. If you are enjoying this on Spotify, iTunes, any other podcast platform, and you are not yet an athletic subscriber, when you are listening to this, our Black Friday deal is live. You can get an athletic subscription for this $1 a month.

Go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod. to do just that for Derek Van Riper and Vic Tafer. I am Michael Beller. We'll be back with you one week from now. Until then, have a great weekend, have a great happy Thanksgiving weekend, and enjoy all of the Week 12 action. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you soon.

This was the Athletic Football Show.