The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 12 recap — Bengals beat Titans, Jags top Ravens, Wild Card races and more

Episode Date: November 28, 2022

Week 12 started way back on Thanksgiving, with the big-name teams taking care of business. It picked back up on Sunday, and this round of games brought a bit of a shakeup. Robert Mays and Nate Tice recap the action on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. The guys dive into the AFC North after the Bengals beat the Titans and Ravens lost to the Jaguars. They shake their heads at the Buccaneers...again, break down the Wild Card races in both conferences, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube2:54 Bengals-Titans16:54 Ravens-Jaguars22:19 Oh wow, Trevor Lawrence37:24 AFC Wild Card race55:25 NFC Wild Card race65:44 Buccaneers flop in Cleveland77:17 A new rock bottom for the Broncos83:59 Week 12 notebook Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me tonight. That's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing well. The stream started right as I was writing a note.

I feel like I got caught changing or something like that. I was like, everything's okay, but I'm doing well. How are you? How are you in your home away from home, I should say. I'm in my in-laws house in Miami, if you guys haven't noticed. So I have a lamp shining on me because I was uncomfortable with the lighting. I just spilled a drink trying to set up my second screen for my notes. I've done that.

That my soon-to-be mother-in-law just had to clean up for me. So I'm really scoring a lot of points with the family right now. A lot is going on. But it's good to be here. It's good to be doing this. It was a pretty important week of games. I think that's how I'm going to phrase it. There were a bunch of games that had some sliding doors moments as it relates to the playoff.

to the playoff picture in both the NFC and the AFC. We're going to spend a good chunk of the show today talking about the NFC and AFC playoff pictures just because we're there. It's Thanksgiving. A lot of this stuff is starting to crystallize. This is one of those moments where I'm spending a lot of time with the tabs open.

Playoff picture tabs, playoff odds tabs, what schedules are remaining. So we're going to do a lot of that today. We're going to talk about pretty disappointing loss for the bucks in a season full of them, get into the Broncos, kind of hitting rock bottom.

them. It seems like every time we think they've hit it, they go a little bit lower, but this to me feels like it. Little odds and ends at the end of the show. But before we do any of that, I wanted to start with a game that you and I were really excited about. And that is the Bengals and the Titans. The Bengals beat Tennessee 20 to 16 in a rematch of their playoff game from last year. Pretty impressive, important win for Cincinnati as they really solidify themselves in the AFC playoff picture. I was really impressed on like five different levels when I went back and I watched this game.

But what's going to stick with you from this win from Cincinnati against a Tennessee team that I think both of us really like and have come to respect a lot? Yeah. I mean, both of these teams are especially a couple of weeks ago or even a month ago, six weeks ago, I wouldn't have been really been, you know, I've been, would have been interested and become maybe a more morbid way like, oh, where they can transition? And it's so funny, wasted all this time. I should say waste all this time, but talked about really emphasize how much the Bengals, especially their offense, was breaking tendencies and doing all this new stuff.

And sure enough, how did the Bengals get their offense today or really? They've been so methodical. You know, it's like, ooh, the, you know, the creamy filling in this offense is so much better than all just these go balls on the outside. And then they have a couple huge go ball plays. But it was awesome. That's the thing. They still have that in their bag. They said, Joe Burrow, I've been so impressed with him this season.

and how he's learned to adapt his game and this offensive staff and how they've kind of changed up what they're doing. They must look at their tendency numbers because made a whole big deal about how much they've been in shotgun and how they're running the ball of the shotgun. And it's really worked for them. First play of the game, they go under center play action screen. I was like, you bastards. Why are you guys got to do this to me? But I want to credit them. They are finding new ways to win, new ways to move the ball.

I mean, they're like even Joe Burrow. targeting running backs 5% more of the time now, not only because, you know, Jamar Chase is hurt. They're finding just, I think they're just, he's learning to take what the defense gives them. And I'm not saying that in a boring way. But having said that, they've been methodical. They've been finding all these ways to run the ball. Joe Burroughs have been working underneath. Oh, yeah, they got back to the explosive plays this week.

They had 10 explosive plays, which was their tied for their season high on the day. Also, Joe Burrow, who has not really been resorting into that kind of expand the play or extend the play and scramble. He scrambled, what, four times today? And he only took one sack. And that was a four-yard loss sack on second down, which is such an improvement from last year, which was like, he even had the comment where he's like, oh, who cares? It's third down sacks. We'll just punt it away. He only took one sack. He scrambled four times since that week five game of the Ravens where we talked about there's this big shift with this offense. He's only scrambled three times total in the weeks, in those weeks since week five. And scrambled four times today. 13-yard gain

on second and 10. Four-yard gain on second at eight. That's an efficient play. 13-year-year-old. gain on first and 10, six yard gain on second and 10. All efficient plays for the bang. And that last one, I'm pretty sure one of those was the play immediately preceding the big completion to Williams on third down that he got outside the pocket. So on back-to-back plays, he's using his legs in smart, efficient ways. That was one of the hallmarks of what they did on offense today, was him running smart and him picking the right moments to do that.

And then you just have a couple scattered plays where it seems like, and it's a 50-50 ball, just kind of throwing it up there. But even that, he's picking his spots to do it. He knows exactly when he's supposed to take those shots. And the one to T. Higgins for the touchdown is a perfect example. He sees that matchup and he's going to take that matchup. And then even the deep outbreaker to T. Higgins on that third down for that big conversion. He understands exactly the timing of that play, how to take that play.

And then it's a combination of understanding how to take one-on-one matchups on the outside when he has them, running in smart situations. And then there were a couple little designs they had today on some really got-a-have-it moments that I was very impressed with. They had a third and five on that same drive. He hit the deep outbreaker to Higgins. It was empty. And it was a two-man route on the right side. They faked slant flat.

So Boyd started like he was going to the flat and then broke it back inside on a third down. And just that combination of my quarterback is very smart and accurate. He's taking fewer negative plays. I have match-up advantages because I have really talented play. Oh, yeah. By the way, Jamar Chase isn't playing. And I'm going to throw in like four or five little wrinkles. That is the recipe of a very good offense. And especially when you consider how well they protected him today. You know, I know the Titans aren't full of banshees tearing off the edge, bendy pass rushers. But they still have the guys up. Yeah. There's a brutality to the way that they play defense and the way that they affect the pocket. And they did not. control the game today. And I think that says a lot. I think he did such a good job of every single time they weren't pressing the pocket. And Bud Dupree did it once. And I can't remember who it was on the second play, gave up contain. He was sitting there willing to take it in smart ways. And so I think

that was the offense. I'll be honest with you. I was more impressed with the defense today than I was with their offense on a few different levels. There are a few guys and a few elements of what I of stuff that I think we should point out and talk about. But I thought that the way that their I went back and I rewatch that entire game. I just the smile on my face in some of these moments, just a reminder of top to bottom, what sort of unit this team really has. And that's the thing is, okay, they had the long, the Titans had the long screen to Henry that, oh, it's so hard to call it like, oh, the Henry touchdown, but it wasn't a touchdown.

It was the Traylon Brooks touchdown. But yeah. By the way, Traylon Brooks's first touchdown in the NFL. What a bummer. To have your first touchdown be a fumble that you recover in the end zone? I feel like Chris Carter's like first touchdown or something like that was the same way. It was like a fumble recovery or something like that. But yeah, but why I want to mention that is that play was different than how the Bengals played all day and all season.

They are such a good tackling team. It is such a fundamental. You absolutely saw it today. That's why. That was the one highlight. And if you watch, there was no gains to be had. If that guy caught the ball of three yards, he's getting tackled one yard or less or fewer. It was just one of those performances.

and just is how they play. They're a smart team. They know how to adapt their game plan, which is always so fun. But they also, like, they make it hard on you. Like the Titans had a big gain to this up the seam. I want to say it was to Hooper. And they completed it. But it was a four push, you know, where the backside safety pushes to the seam.

And it was bang, bang. And it was such a big hit. So the fact that you hit a big gain on them, but they make it tough. It's not like there's just a free runner, like when you watch the dolphins against the Texans and there's like 20 guys just running free on every play. It's like it's when you get a big game, you have to earn it on this defense. And that's awesome. This is, it's a really, I'm so high on this Bengals team.

Like they are just overall a really balanced good team, finding different ways to move the ball in offense and they make it tough for you on defense. And it's, I'm really, really impressed with this team right now. It's kind of the big picture takeo I have from this is that they're very similar to what they were last year and that makes them dangerous. Like, they win. in this, we taught, they have a murderer's row down the stretch. Their schedule is awful, but if you look at a lot of the numbers and a lot of the

projection systems, they have a very good chance after this game of eventually making the playoffs, even with that schedule looming. And if they get in, I think they're going to be pretty dangerous. I want to save that, though, because I do want to talk about a couple specific guys on that defense. Mike Hilton had two TFLs today. I don't even know if technically be TFLs. They were like tackles for no gain. One, he's knifing into the back in the run fit from his nickel corner spot and just tackles Derek Henry alone in the backfield. Okay. That's the play we're talking about right here.

Him taking the sea gap and seeing grass and just taking it. Like there is nothing cheap about this. This is like a linebacker who sees grass and takes it. Nick Westbrookina is supposed to block him on this play and he's just horrified by how fast he's moving downhill to make this play in the backfield. And the other element of this, them getting DJ Reader back, it is impossible to overstate how important it is for their run defense. On that specific play, he's holding up, I believe it was the left guard, just stonewalls him. There was a play inside the 10-yard line. It was on the same drive where Burke's had the huge reception.

So the Titans are driving. It's second and five. Reader eats a double team and doesn't just eat it. gets actual push while getting double-teamed playing on the other side of the line of scrimmage. That dude is a monster. And him, Hilton, Camp Taylor Britt had a couple really nice tackles in space today playing physical. Jermaine Pratt has been awesome over the last few weeks. The Pittsburgh game, he was just jumping off the screen.

Their defensive line keeps those linebackers clean so well. I mean, their run defense today was absolutely fantastic. They averaged negative 0.05 yards before contact in this game on their rushes. So on average, the Bengals were making contact in the backfield in this game. And that's exactly what it felt like. So you have all these guys we like it, even though they don't have stars and their offense has kind of found themselves and the line is playing better. And now, again, pull back a little bit. How good is this team?

And like, what can they do? If they get into the dance here, or if they somehow win the AFC North, which we're going to get into this in a second with the Ravens losing, seems very real. Even if Baltimore is scheduled down the stretch is much, much easier. I mean, I'm suddenly looking at this team and just thinking, I don't, I feel like they can kind of make some noise based on how they're currently constructed and how well they're playing right now. It sounds like very simple when you like break down a team. They have a quarterback playing really well and they have a defense that makes it tough on you. That's a good combo and playmakers on offense that can take any carry or any catch and make a big play out of it and win 50-50 balls consistently. And that's what just this team is they're going to hang with every team.

Like that's they are going to make no matter what, I don't think they can have. There's a matchup for them where it's like, man, I don't know how they're going to stop them. Man, I don't know how they're going to put up points. They're finding different ways. They were not an efficient team today. They're an explosive team. The last six, seven weeks, they've been an efficient team. And last year, they're an explosive team.

Like they're just finding these. different answers to what you're trying to do against them. And like I want also Mike Hilton had one of my highlights all like all the whole season. He's the back safety guy when they take a knee when a victory formation. And he practices running back footwork when he does it. It's hilarious. That's really fine. Oh, very he's, he's really into it too. Like perfect footwork. He's doing counter stuff. But anyways, but I do want to break down like why like one play that really it was the is a Pyrine? Sam J. Pyrine. Is that? Yes. Samajet P. Rush. Good job, buddy. Samajet, I should know this. So he's been in the league forever. I remember in Oklahoma.

But anyways, he, it was just a checkdown. He took it for about 30-something yards. They're backed up on this play. And I just want to talk about this play because this is like speaking to how Burrow is playing. It's a great example. So quickly. So when you're in a, it's a trips formation. And when you're in a three-by-one formation, and I've talked about this with the

Chargers offense where you are taking the X matchup one-on-one. And sometimes when you take the. that X matchup, your number two is the checkdown. And usually it's a sit route on the hash or the numbers or, you know, an outbreak, a quick outbreak or a swing. And how quickly Burrow comes off the one-on-one and hits the checkdown, it gives P. Ryan so much space to go make a play. And that's what Burroughs doing time after time, time and time again. He's targeting runoffacks 5% more of the time than last year, which doesn't seem like a big number, but that adds up. And these guys are making place that happened in the Steelers game last week. And it's not just the down the field, you know,

dig tendency breaker that we talked about. It's these checkdowns. They're just staying on schedule. They're not accumulating negative plays. That was their offense last year. It was negative play, negative play, negative play, negative play. And in the beginning of this season. Yes. Negative play, negative play, never play. 30 yard gain. Oh, man. And wow, wow, this team, wow, they hit those big plays, but they're not consistent. Now they're just adding up. They're stacking up. They're stacking up. Getting guys on base. Singles, doubles, getting on base. And that's what this offense is right now. I'm, I know, I just, I want to sound like I'm gushing. I really want to emphasize. how much I'm enjoying watching this team,

just find answers and ways that I didn't think they would. But I also just, you know, he's hitting the tight end on benders. He's finding different answers. It's actually like taking chase out of the offense has helped Burrow kind of be more of a complete progressor. Like probably like from the pocket. When you got a guy outside the numbers like Trenton Irwin,

it's pretty much a one-for-one replacement. Right? He's made it. He actually has made a couple big plays. That one play, the back shoulder throw is. a huge play in this game. Legit.

And he had one last week, too. He said a couple. I know, okay, this guy, insert name, create a player right now. But then it's, they're just finding different answers that like, oh, the other other play I want to break down too was that just real quick was the other tendency breaker. They had the first play of the fourth quarter. They go under center again. It was first to 10 after they've been under center, under center running the ball,

under center running the ball. Ran a play action, hit a corner out to Higgins. So it was the first play out of the quarter. So obviously they talked about like, hey, we're going to get them here. And they got them. So it's just, like you said, it's calculated shot plays, calculated big plays, and they have guys that can win. So credit to them, good players, good coaching right now on both sides of the ball.

Like, good job, bangles. I want to contrast the good feelings that are obvious in this conversation about Cincinnati with some real hesitance about the way that Baltimore looks and the way that they're playing. I know that they were up, and we'll talk about this game. Ravens lose today to the Jags, 28 to 27. They're up nine points and lose the game again. And here's what's frustrating about the Ravens. I can do this two ways.

Baltimore, again today, is up by nine points deep in the second half. Okay? They have four trips inside the 15, and they come away with four field goals. It's like, oh, man, you know, just unlucky in the red zone, a couple big breaks. And it's not like they're a bad red zone team. They're like ninth in red zone DVA over the course of this. season and they have a fumble inside the 15. But then you go back and you watch it. And it's just really, really hard to feel good about where this Ravens team is right now.

The running game did not look good today. You have guys running into each other. The quarterback run game didn't look very efficient or very smooth. Their inability to move the ball consistently through the air. The best receiving option on the Baltimore Ravens today was Deshawn Jackson. Who also nowhere. I knew they signed him, but I had a split second. I go, man, there's another Deshawn Jackson in the league. I had that split second.

I was like, wow, another Deshawn Jackson. I was like, oh, yeah, they signed him again. Deshawn Jackson. He felt like the most explosive player in their passing game. There was a stretch in this game on the same drive where they had a chunk play to Deshawn Jackson, where on second and 12, after a TFL, their get back on track play was a screen pass to Patrick Ricard. That we both tweeted about instantly because we were disgusted.

On the next play, they threw him the ball again. Yep. He is on, he is, so right now, after this game, I believe he has 12 targets this season. The record, the NFL record for targets to a player who weighs at least 300 pounds over the course of a season is 13 set by him last year. I know that he's been fine. They've thrown him the ball, whatever. The idea that he's a real part of their passing game and that the most explosive

that they look is throwing the ball to Deshaun Jackson. It is just so difficult, even if every number, DVOA, efficiency numbers, EPA per play, whatever, the offense is fine. And over the course of the season, they have been fine. They have all these leads in games. But when you get down to it, it's just so difficult for me to feel confident about them because the passing game just looks disjointed and inconsistent. They don't have receiving options that scare you.

And there's enough moving parts that go wrong in the running game often enough where I'm just like, I just can't get into a group feeling good about where this team is. Even if their schedule is really easy, even if they're going to make the playoffs, and I just contrast that with the way that I feel about the Bengals right now. And it's hard not to put those two teams next to each other when you kind of see the changing of the ties, potentially in the AFC North after a day like today. Yeah. And I mean, these are the players who had three or more targets today for the Ravens.

So Mark Andrews had seven. Totally makes sense. Josh Oliver. Six. Devin Duvene. Five. Okay. That makes sense.

Demarcus, four. You know, the Chiefs receiver four last year. Patrick Card had three. Deshaun Jackson had three. So half of Lamar's past attempts went to DeMarcus Robinson, Josh Oliver, Patrick Ricard, and Deshaun Jackson. That is not an offense that you feel, have a lot of faith in. And Lamar.

Unless it's expertly designed in the passing game. Expertly. And it is not. Yes. Obviously, you're, you're, obviously you're going to trust Lamar to like take a lot of touches. And he is carrying this team on his back. I mean, it's just every play has to be him because it's just there's nobody else. There really is nobody else.

And it's really frustrating to watch the offense. Because like you said, the numbers always end up looking okay. Like they'll get some explosives in the run game. Once a while, they'll hit some explosives in the past game. But it's just, it really doesn't scare you over. 60 minutes. It's, they always run out of steam. They run out ball plays, it seems like they, the fact that Ricard has to be there on

third down. And you could say, oh, there's fullbacks that play on third down all time, you know, juice check, um, Alec and gold. Those guys are like, can actually gain some yards. Like, yes, they're actually like solid receiving options for explosive place. And that's my concern with the Ricard screen is like, what is the best case scenario on this play? Right.

Eight yards. Like that, that's why are you designing that? You only get 60 plays in a game. Why waste one of them on that? That's what I don't get. And on third down. Why is it hurt to get Mark Andrews? Get Mark Andrews a screen on second and long.

You know, like get someone to actually can create some yards after the catch. You might be scared that Mark Andrews will set the ball up like a volleyball set because he's the most like frustrating ball catcher in the league. But it's that that's what doesn't make sense. You only have so many plays, get the ball in your best player's hands, even if you only have a limited amount of weapons. And I know Randy Stanley didn't play in this game.

I think you could see that in the run game especially. Just again, just feeling disjointed. And there's so many plays where it's like guys running into each other and TFLs. And the overall efficiency numbers look fine. But you just watch it happen. It's like, it's just so hard to feel good about where they are right now. On the flip side in this game. I mean, you had to be just on another plane of existence watching Trevor Lawrence in the fourth quarter today.

Static. Dude, but I will say that. when he got stuffed on the QB sneak and then he got strips act. I was like, oh, God, here we go again. Here goes me on a Wednesday tweeting like six plays and people going, like, oh, confirming your priors.

You're always defending him. And then the fourth quarter happened, man. And it was fireworks. The fireworks factory happened. I do want to go through each and every one of those fourth down throws. I tweet today. Let's do it. Let's do it.

All right. So this is the fourth quarter. This is just a fourth quarter. He had some other throws throughout the game. Second and 15. They're down nine points at this point in time. They run stick knot to Evan Ingram. So that's already, those words do not sound great coming out my mouth.

Usually they're explosive flies. I actually, if I had to segue this, I was going to say, speaking of poor weapons, but is a little outbreaker for number two who then takes it vertical. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And the rant, like when the Rams were struggling in 2020 to move the ball in there, they ran this. This was their way to get an explosive play.

So they run the stick nod. It gets covered. Trevor moves in the pocket and finds the backside dig to Jamal Agnew, another name for 17 yards. So, okay, so that's already a great, great start right there. Third two, hits Zay Jones on a crosser. Another great name. That was the Raiders receiver like three last year. Hit Zay Jones on a crosser on mesh as he's getting knee-kept by Klyas Campbell.

Zay Jones is two yards behind the line of scrimmage because he got rerouted so badly on the crossing route. Okay, doesn't matter. Still finds a throw because he's a baller. fourth and eight corner route to Zay Jones over Marcus Peters. That was just dropped in the bucket. And after I tweeted these plays, the Jaguars fans were just saying, you should have heard the stadium after that throw. Like they said, it was just like gasps.

Like, I didn't know you could do that. Later that play, they have a third and two. And they run this awesome man beater that Andy Reed and Doug Peterson love, where they cross the running back. It's usually in the red zone or near the goal line. It's the running back cross releases into the flat. Yep. And they, Patrick Queen got.

couldn't sort it out. Jamichael Hastie gets it. So that converts, but it was a great little play call. I love that design. I don't know why more teams don't run it. More teams have, but it's like, everybody should have that playing their playbook. Then second in goal, short motion, fake crosser to Jamal Agnew. He runs a flat route.

Perfect throw. Makes it a two-point game. Okay, they get the ball back after a turnover, field goal. Now they're down seven with under two minutes. I think they had no timeouts to start this drive. They go fourth and five, an out route to Marvin Jones with Patrick Queen right in his face. Then he hits a second and two. 10 bender to Christian Kirk.

Then he hits a third and six out and up to Zay Jones. That was gorgeous. And then a first and goal fade ball with Marvin Jones. All this is tempo. Well, you know, they're lining it up. Just go, go, go. The touchdown's awesome because they're lining up. It's like 25, 24.

The clock's ticking down. And you see him get everyone set. And he glances over at Marvin Jones. He's like, I'm taking this one-on-one. Like, let's go. Yeah. Gets the ball. He holds the safety and whips it over there.

And then he hits the two-point play right on the money is Zay Jones. And it was just like, wow. that that's a difference maker at quarterback. His underlying stats have been actually very good this year. He's been top 10 in EPA through most of the year. Obviously, he's there at this point. I think he's eighth right now in EPA per dropback. But man, this was the first time where it was like,

I can actually point at this and be like, this is him. This is what he's shown. All this good process that he's shown is throughout his year and a half as a starter in the NFL, this was the first time I felt like the results followed. And they got a win out of it. It wasn't some loss, you know, to the chiefs or some lost to the giants or something like that.

This was like the first time where it all came together for him. And it was a special performance by him. And he has all the potential to be a special quarterback. This was it. Like the exact types of throws where it's whole shots down the sideline. It's benders up the seam. I mean, his ability, the way I've described is like a laser show. And what he can do in the intermediate areas of the field.

And that's where he's best. That's where you really see the arm gets shown off. He doesn't have as big of an arm as some of these other just like out of this world alien quarterbacks that we watch. But in the intermediate areas of the field, it's the same way he wasn't Clemson. You remember when we were talking about him before the draft? We were just talking about those seam balls that felt like they were rising, you know, in that 10 to 20 yard area. That's what he looks like throwing some of these balls. The ones down the right side.

Even the touchdown that he had to hasty was. Oh, it was. Oh, my God, that was gorgeous. Well, it was a beautiful play design. What I loved about it, it was empty. It was empty and they had Kirk, I believe, run a little outbreaker from the number two spot, pulled Peters up. And then they had hasty down the right sideline. And just the way he throws those balls where it's 12, 14 yards in the air, intermediate area of the field,

and he's got to put just a little bit of touch on it, those are beautiful throws. And that's a lot of what you saw today. And I just think that if you had faith, which both of us, I believe, did about. the underlying aspects to his game all throughout the season, and you get rid of one backbreaking red zone turnover a game, and you actually look at what he is playing and play out, these sorts of games are on the table. This is a dude who's 20 games into his career now,

almost 25, with the worst imaginable circumstances last year, with circumstances this year that are fine. You just list it off all the guys he's throwing the ball too. It's Evan Ingram and Zay Jones and Christian Kirk and Jamal Agnew, who was a kick returner for most of his career. And he's still been a firmly above average quarterback. So moments like today shouldn't be at all surprising. And if you're a Jags fan, you can sit here and hold performances like this and just say, all right, like we got a guy. And I don't think there was any question

from either of us that they had a guy after the way he played over the first half of the season. it was more about what the ceiling is. If he's your quarterback, where is he going to fit ultimately in the hierarchy? Can he be one of the guys that has a seat at the table that consistently makes a difference for you week in and week out? And I think games like this are an indication that he absolutely has the potential to get there. And if I root for that team and I'm watching them today, I got to feel pretty damn good about that. The crowd reactions were awesome. I mean, the Jaguars fans.

It was like cathartic for them. It was like, oh, yeah. Oh, this is awesome. And we won, like, because they took the lead and then let up a touchdown right away. And you could feel it's like, oh, well, there it is again. Like, it was like the colds game when they went at Indianapolis. Same exact thing. Took the lead, gave it right back up.

But that touchdown to hasty was awesome because it was a classic, I know, which you know, what I know, which you know kind of play from Trevor because it's a running back to the number one spot. Corners, Marcus Peters especially, he's a boomer bust corner. But that's because he knows how to game the system. He sees a running back at number one. And he goes, I'm not throwing a go ball to him. That's exactly right. I'm going, I'm going to jump this out route.

And there's Trevor going, I know what you know, what I know, what you know. So he just turns that ball over. And I'm glad to bring up those 14 to 20-yard throws. And the Zay Jones out and up on the final drive, too. If anyone rewatches it, watch how Trevor's balls turn over in the air. That's what's so impressive. That is so hard to do on those types of. throws. When you throw a deep ball and you put a lot of loft on it, then it usually turns over.

That's what you want to see. That's how you throw a nice spiral is, or you know a guy's throwing a nice spiral and not kind of gaming their arm is how the ball turns over. That's why the top guys, it's incredible because a guy like Justin Herbert will throw it like 62 yards and it like barely turns over because it's still lining to a guy. But his balls like on those intermediate throws are just so pretty because that is so hard to do. And that's why the ball just goes to where he wants it. It was, yeah, it was awesome. I was very happy to see him put together a game like that. And then like next year, it's like, yes, they still need some help. Now they get Calvin Ridley. And it's like, ooh, like that, that's, they can make some magic next year. And I mean,

they have a positive point differential. Like, this team is close. Even if the defense is still up and down, like the offense, even with an imperfect, uh, weapons around him, the old line kind of they still are doing like some efficient and some good things. And he's doing some efficient. And he's doing some efficient and good things. And now we're starting to see some results on the positive side for them. So it was a statement win for them. What direction is the arrow pointing? And right now it is firmly pointed up. Like you didn't even need today. Today is a great moment. And I think it solidifies that fact in a lot of people's minds. But I think we were already heading in that direction. It's just so nice as a fan base, as I'm sure some people who watch this team week in and week out,

to have a moment like this to kind of exhale a little bit. But I think that this wasn't some revelation from Trevor Lawrence if you've been watching him all season. This was just a game where it all broke a little bit better than it has at other moments during this season. But all of the pieces that can lead to a performance like this have been on display at various other points this year. And now you saw it all come together in hugely crucial moments against a very good opponent. and feel very good about where the Jags are after this game. And I think it's fair to say we're a little bit worried about where the Ravens are right now and just kind of how they stack up to the other really good teams in the league

and how consistently they're finding offense. That's my biggest takeaway here is that it feels too hard for them too often when you compare them to some of the other teams in the league. How often the Bengals are able to find some of these answers, how often even a disjointed Bill's team can find answers on offense and find offense. The Chiefs didn't light the world on fire today, but we know how good their offense has been this season.

I'm worried about the Ravens' ability to kind of hold up against the rest of those teams because there were moments over the last month or so where you kind of watch them roll the bucks and then they play really well against the Saints. And you're kind of thinking about the overall hierarchy in the AFC and what teams can really make a push and be legitimate down the stretch. And I think Miami has consistently shown that with their offense.

We feel really good about the Bengals. And now I'm just starting to develop some doubts about how the Ravens fit into that picture because of how fluid, consistent, and reliable their ability to move the ball is. Reliable. That's such a great way to put it. There are some tweaks they had early in the season where I was like, okay, I gave some credit to Greg Roman. They figure out some things with empty and their protections and not getting bliss out of it. And then again, it's again, when they hit that panic button, it looks like they're hitting the panic button.

And which is, hey, Lamar, go do something. Or there's no just like their easy buttons are screen to Patrick Ricard. Like there's just nothing that is just easy. Like you said, there's nothing reliable other than Lamar is a very good player. That is, that's it. That's the only thing I can rely on with that entire offense. And that's not where you want to be. We gushed about their defense last week.

I still think they had some decent moments today. I mean, they held a Jags run game to like nothing. I had it written down. Three of the 17 Jacks run plays or runnebacks were successful today. So it's like that was a good performance from the Ravens defense there. But then the offense is, which is supposed to be the real strength of this team. It's just, yeah, it's just not there. A team that has playoff aspirations and a team I was high on this year.

And again, they've had injuries. It's just that they lack that consistency that you want to see. and what's so funny is that it's really flip of what we discuss about the Bengals. It's like they flipped almost narratives. And yeah, credit to the Bengals and this is just where the Ravens are at right now. All right. We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to dig into the rest of the AFC playoff picture when we get back. Gentlemen, you have my curiosity.

Now you have my attention. All right. We're cheating a little bit. The AFC playoff picture in general has our attention because we're there. It's the end of November. it's time to start looking at all of the moving pieces and who's rising, who's falling. What are the playoff odds? Are Austin Mock at the athletic?

I seem to check them every 12 hours or so, like what the actual playoff odds look like. You guys have not checked those out. Take athon draft orders. Oh, that's what I'm really looking at right now. It's funny. It's all worked out really well. The bears are going to be picking in the top three. And they have all of their picks.

and I tore down my fantasy team this year, my keeper team. So I have never been more invested on what the top of the draft looks like than I am at this very moment. But that's a conversation. Me and Day and our text thread is much more lively than it's been in years past now that I actually have to care about the first round. And I'm going to bug the shit out of him for the next six months. I can promise you that. So let's talk about some of those moving parts with the AFC playoff picture today. And let's start with the New York Jets who beat the hell out of the Bears.

They're now seven and four. Again, mentioning Austin Mock, right now he has them with a 61% chance to make the playoffs. And that probably didn't change a lot today. You know, they were supposed to beat the Bears. I'm sure a lot of those numbers indicated that they were supposed to beat the Bears. The obvious thing to talk about with the Jets and what's different and what's important from what happened today is that their offense with Mike White. Competition considerations aside looked better than it has at any point over the last two years with Zach Wilson.

And I think that's a huge consideration when we're thinking about this team making the playoffs and what this team could look like if they do end up making the playoffs. What do you think Mike White's QBR was today? That's the one stat I don't have. I have a bunch of other Mike White stats. What was his QBR? I'm curious now. 91.7. Do you know what Mike?

91.7 QBR. Do you know what Mike White's EPA per dropback was today? No, I want you, I want you hit it hit me with it. Point six five. Okay. Oh, God. Point six five. That's like top five on this.

That's like top five in the season. It has to be. Top five on the season. That's double what Tua and Patrick Mahomes are. That's double the best quarterbacks in the league. That's how good Mike White was today. Oh, yeah. One game.

I think my home is probably a conversation. I was a question. Yeah. So he finished 22 of 28 for 315 and three touchdowns. And the Bears defense today was a disaster, right? You have one of the worst defenses in the league. They traded away Roquant Smith, traded away Robert Quinn a couple weeks ago.

Jaquan Brisker did not play in this game. Kylo Gordon did not play in this game. Eddie Jackson got hurt in this game. Even people who love the Bears are going to have trouble naming three or four Bears defensive players that were actually on the field by the end of this one. So it's difficult to kind of parse out. How much better was the Jets offense with Mike White? How much of this is the Bears being a non-existent NFL team on the other side of the

ball? I do think that you can come away, even with that in mind, thinking this team wouldn't look like this or couldn't look like this with Zach Wilson, a quarterback, because he still made a half dozen throws, made a half dozen decisions within the rhythm of the office. that looked significantly better than this team has looked. Just Garrett Wilson feeling like this sort of player is something we have not seen this season because of Zach Wilson playing quarterback and the limitations it's put on them. Rhythm is exactly it.

Everything felt exactly how it was supposed to be designed. Everything just felt competent. Like that's how this offense felt. It just was like, oh, there's the progress on the progression on this made sense. That's why you're seeing Garrett Wilson catching like an inbreaker because, you know, That's where the reed took Mike White and it was in rhythm. He only got, I don't think he barely even got hit today. And that speaks to, he only got sacked once.

The fact that he wasn't scrambling at time, like he had a couple, but it was just, he didn't need to because he was staying in the pocket, finding the read and getting to it. Also even stuff like breaking the huddle was better. Like they, I mean, that sounds stupid, but like breaking the huddle with 18 seconds on the clock because he wasn't struggling with the play call. Like I know it was piling on. And of course, this should have been a get right game of Zach Wilson. was playing.

But the fact that it was like that they were just like, no, enough, enough. That's what it felt like. They're like, no, we know we should have a good game in this game. We're not going to have this high, you know, variance that we might get if Zach Wilson was playing. And that's what we saw. It was, they should have beaten the shit of the bears, like with who the bears were playing today.

And Trevor, with Trevor Settian and the state of the bears defense, they should beat the shit out of the bears. And that's exactly what they did. Yes. The, they stayed rhythm. They stayed in rhythm as a team. And the rhythm. The rhythm is what jumps out to me.

So the stat that jumps out, 2.46 average time to throw in this game was the third fastest of the week. Zach Wilson was at about three seconds over the course of the year, which is the second highest number in the NFL. The only person who was taking longer on average to throw the football was Justin Fields. That's it. And you could feel that difference in this game while watching the Jets offense. Even a small thing.

The touchdown to Moore about halfway through the third quarter, he's under pressure and he's having to drift to his left a little bit to complete that ball, but he's drifting while keeping his eyes down field and he's not short-circuiting when there's a tiny bit of pressure around him. So just so many aspects of the offense being functional and on schedule and on track with Mike White playing quarterback. It's not going to look like this every week. I don't think Mike White is some Pro Bowl quarterback.

There's a reason that he was sitting and there's a reason that Mike White's pedigree isn't that of a high level quarterback. But I just think that aesthetically, statistically, every aspect of what you wanted to see from them and why they made this choice, I think it was pretty obvious today. Yeah, there's a huge difference,

and you can see this so many times, especially with the young quarterbacks. And this was the Drew Rock blemish. There's a difference between wishing something open and knowing that something's going to come open. And like you said, he kept his eyes downfield. And that's what it felt like.

Mike White knew every play. Mike White knew where his weaknesses were. Mike White knew all that stuff. I feel like you only could say his full name. Has to be Mike White. Mike White, that's it. Yeah, that's how it sounds going to be. Yeah.

But you can just tell it. Nothing was wished open. And that's why stuff was catching in the flow. And that's why guys were able to create yards after the catch. And that's what this team needs. We've caught this defense is an ass kicking defense, all three levels. Sauce has some great plays because Chase Claypool likes to jump sideways. And, you know, like Quincy.

made the play. I was still frustrated by it. I was like, my man, I need you to play six four. Six, six four. I know. That's so scary with him. And that, you know, like Quincy Williams, another strong performance from him. And then, of course, the front has all these really good, really good players, including Quinn and Williams. So again, this is, it's a good, good defense. It's a defense that should be in the playoffs. Like, they have played well enough that they can hang with anybody in the playoffs. The offense just has to get, when score when they get the opportunities. And today they did. And that's why. they blew him out of the water.

Be operational. That's it. That's all I want the offense to be. And today they were, and we'll see what happens, right? Next week they go to Minnesota. They get the bills after that. It's going to look a lot different than it did against. Yes.

A team that was already a bottom three off a defense in the league. Next, I want to see what they look like against better competition. I'm not trying to discount what he did today, but it's hard to overstate how depleted and already bad team was that they played on Sunday. but they did exactly what you're supposed to do against the team that's in that state. And I think that that's pretty much my main takeaway. I mean, some of the throws, he had a high, low to Elijah Moore over the middle of the field within rhythm. The happiest man in New York today.

Or like, the happiest man in New York was Elijah Moore. He was like. I wish I had some of the quotes. I wish I had some of the quotes. They are Elijah Moore's reaction after this game is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum. some of the other guys that we're going to talk about. They're like four or five guys, whether it's in Houston or Kyler after that game against the Chargers, who are just like, I'm over it.

Like, I have done. Elijah Moore is feeling the exact opposite. Also, when guys are walking past him in the locker room, when he's talking to the media, and like, he's free, like, you have free in Elijah, like, that is a bad side. That is a very bad side when your teammates are openly saying that kind of stuff in the aftermath of a game like this. And they didn't fire a coach. They didn't fire a coach. The guy that's that was keeping him in jail apparently is still in the locker room probably about three doors down. Like it's just guessing by jersey numbers. Like that he's not that far away. I know. I know.

It was that there was a lot of that today. I mean, he blocked his ass off. Like Lodge of Moore is a tough player. That's why I liked him out of Ole Miss. He was just a gamer, like just a ball player, even given his size. And today I saw him running his feet, run blocking. He's he gave so much effort because I think he knew he was going to get actually rewarded when he did the right thing. So, yeah, he was a very, very happy man. I thought he was talking about talking to the ball this week. That was one of the things that he was clearly feeling himself after that game was over. And you know what?

You deserve it, Elijah Moore. Good for you. Good for you. All right. Let's keep going through the AFC playoffs here a little bit. Obviously, the dolphins just beat the shit out of the Texans, which we expected. That's to be expected at this point and good for the dolphins. Digging it out a little bit further, the Chargers keep their season.

alive essentially with that final touchdown and that decision to go for two. Two teams, by the way, win games going for two at the end and trying to put this thing away. And let's acknowledge that. Let's give them credit. Those are some of those moments that if that goes wrong, we're having a very frustrating conversation over the next 24 hours. Thankfully, did not happen that way.

Love the two-point call, by the way. Loved it. From the Chargers. Like, absolutely love the point. play design. If you guys haven't seen it, they motioned Austin Eccler out from the back field.

I believe it was Zavin Collins. Yeah, just splash a little bit. Splash a little bit. Believe Zavon Collins went with him. So you clear out the middle of the field. And then they run Gerald Everett. Again, kind of on a little fake to the flat. Come back inside.

Simmons totally out of sorts. Easy one. Just love the play design. And for all the shit we give the chargers about how they want to operate within like a three yard box. past the line of scrimmage, that sort of play, it lends to their strengths. It's two points. It's perfect.

They only need two yards. That was good. No, I love angle routes in the red zone are awesome. And that was a perfect one. And that was, uh, Keenan Allen, you know, because Cardinals are a man, so there's a whole player. So Keenan Allen takes the whole player, the extra defender. And it's just perfect.

It was a perfect play for it. So yeah. Where you go, Joe Lombardi? That was nice. I'll give you a little props for that one. Well, so another thing, too, is because the Jaguars went for two as well. And they didn't get that QB sneak. earlier in the game.

So imagine if they lose that game, they don't get the fourth down and then they don't get the two point like that. Oh my God. That's just like every anti-analytics person's like wet dream. Like they would have gotten nuts about that. That's why the Jaguars can't put it together because they're too caught up in the numbers. Like, nope, but this is what happens. This is we only remember the results.

We don't remember it's the good thing. So we want to emphasize that this happens when you just keep staying attacking. So I believe the Chargers coming into this game in like a 40% chance to make the playoffs. if they had, according to a bunch of models, including Austin Mocks, if they had lost this game, I'm guessing that drops by at least half. And now they're sitting still at around 40%. So what's going to happen is it's going to be the Chargers, the Jets, and the Patriots, kind of fighting over the scraps with that final

playoff spot in the AFC. And it's hard not to feel good about the Jets with this version of their offense and the defense. we know that they can bring. I don't know. If you're handicapped in Chargers or Patriots, picking one of them to eventually steal that spot, who would you feel better about right now?

I know I'm putting you on the spot. It's terrible question. Let me look at the Patriots schedule real quick. Okay. Oh, God. Oh, man, this is interesting. I would slightly, I'm going with the Chargers. I'm handicapping them just slightly.

Like, I would have them at like a 9 to 5 favorite at this point in time. But yeah, because like if you look, even the Chargers. They got Raiders, okay, dolphins, interesting, Titans, interesting, but then Colts, Rams, Broncos. And the Patriots are Bills, Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills. So two games against the Bills,

I'm never going to be a fan of that with the Patriots. And also just, even though the Patriots on Thursday, the offense looked a lot more competent. That is a game I want to rewatch a lot. It was the fact, I haven't gotten to it yet. But the defense was the strength of this team and just got Justin Jefferson

did, like they just got shredded. They're running one double on Justin Jefferson and he just said, all right, and then just ran right behind him. It was like, oh, you can just, all these years people trying to beat one double coverage. And it was just like, just run on a slot fade and just have your best receiver run past them both. I'm like, oh,

wow, that's how you beat the Bill Belichick defense. But that performance kind of worried me a little bit with the Patriots. I'm just betting on the quarterback. I just saw I will continue to bet on Justin Herbert until I get blue in the face and get yelled at on Twitter about saying why do you think he's elite. I mean, that's, what a fascinating group of three teams.

Just like where they are and how their seasons have gone. So you've got the Jets, the Patriots, and the Chargers essentially fighting for that last spot. If we feel very good about where the Bengals are and their ability to kind of lock down that succeed or potentially win the AFC North, depending on which direction. I can't believe this. Of those four teams, if you asked me a few weeks ago, even a month ago, Bengals are the team I feel the best of of those four teams, which is like it's crazy. Right now?

Yeah. I don't even think it's close. No, I know. The only reason that's why I want to emphasize. The only reason that the Bengals, I'm even slightly concerned about how the next couple months could play out is schedule-based. Yeah. But even if you look at the Bengals schedule, okay, pulling it up right now. And it's not great, okay?

That's tough. They play Kansas City next week at home. By the way, fantastic game. There's a lot of really good games next week. So they get the Chiefs next week. They play a Brown's team that is very, very, competent and beat them up the last time these two teams played earlier this season. They get the Bucks, the Patriots, the Bills, and the Ravens.

Six games left this season, the Bengals have zero gimmies whatsoever. But if we feel as good as we do about them, who's to say that they can't knock off the Browns, Bengals, Patriots, and potentially even the Ravens in week 18 for the division? So that's four and two the rest of the way. that would put them at 11 and 7 for the year. Okay? My math is terrible. 11 and 6.

17 games. I'm trying to put 18 games in because I know they're 18 weeks. The fact you said week 18, I was so proud of you. I was like, hey, now I nailed it. All over the place. So 11 and 6. And I think that's about where we thought they'd be. Like I thought that they would be a playoff team.

I thought that the Ravens would edge them out in the division. And a lot of factors, Rashad Bateman not taking the step we thought he was going to take. Rashad Bateman getting hurt. Certain element. of the Ravens offense underperforming and underwhelming.

And the Bengals, I think, being even more impressive, more malleable, better problem solvers on offense than we might have anticipated considering how last season went, a lot of different factors, thinking they're pretty much who we thought they would be,

but a little bit better, and that allowing them to theoretically win the AFC North and be firmly in the playoffs. But I think that they're going to be a playoff team. Now it's just about what happens with those final three teams. And I think I feel the best, about the Jets of those three teams right now just because

this is how I would think like who has the best unit and it's like okay I like the Jets defense a lot and like that of all these you know are you betting on the Chargers offense it's like not really I'm not betting on the Chargers defense because you can just run off and I'm not betting on the Chargers offense right now exactly because it's just so inconsistent so Beller so Beller just asked us we think the Ravens could fall out the the Ravens schedule let's let's contrast that with what the Bengals are doing with right now Okay. The Ravens over there last six.

Oh my God. Here are the last six games of the Ravens season. Broncos, Steelers. Browns, Falcons. Steelers again, Bengals Week 18. So even a Ravens team that we don't love could probably sleepwalk to five and one over that stretch based on the competition that they're playing.

Those Steelers, Ravens games are always weird, but the Steelers are such a bad. spot right now. So I think that's why even if you're not excited about the current state of the Ravens, their schedule is so bad down the stretch that it's really hard to imagine them falling out to the playoffs. And it's honestly really hard to imagine them still not winning the AFC north just by bounces of the ball here over the last month and the half. God, I know. That's such a contrast schedule. Like opening that up and just seeing Broncos right away was was like, oh, okay, that's already easier than anything that the Bengals have to face the race.

rest of the year. So no, I know that that is, it's a good question though. It's super interesting. I mean, these, all these teams are imperfect, but they're also like, they all have interesting aspects with them. And it's just so funny that the Ravens, I feel kind of like a little more lukewarm. And it's like, yeah, but they probably have the easiest path of these teams. All right.

Let's get to the NFC. Wow. Card picture here because there's also a lot to dig into. Washington wins. You have a season changing game. I mean, if that ball doesn't get tipped, and doesn't get intercepted at the end, and they lose this game.

I have to imagine that their playoff odds probably get half or take a significant hit. Right now, after winning that game, they have a 57.5% chance to make the postseason, according to Austin Machiae from the athletic. I just don't know what to make of that. You watch this team, and the offense is just, they have a couple chunks every once in a while.

They play against a bad Falcons defense. like if they sneak in like do you think that they could realistically win a playoff game or is this just kind of a good for you guys way to edge out the other bad teams in the NFC like you stumbled in not sure it matters really much it feels like it feels like that Washington team a couple years ago that's what it is they're built through the front of their defense they're going to make it tough on every offensive line that they play against and then it's like a race to 20 that's what all their games are going to feel like and and how many sail routes that can this team complete that is the they're the king of sail routes and including one to john bates shout out john bates my

guy love jahad dossin i love damey brown we we both love scary terry john bates stepping up with a touchdown today on a sail route of course cool design actually by the way they like little motion on it they basically created a four strong on it was pretty cool but that's the thing they're going to give team of issues and you know you got heinicky and it's just that's you got heinicky like i the best quote I've seen there's a guy I follow and he follows me on Twitter, Stark Kyle Orton, he's very funny, Bears fan. And he tweeted this and I was talking about Pickett and Heineke, because I compared Pickett to Heineke.

And he said, they were what happens if Jimmy G. Hit his head and woke up thinking they were Josh Allen. And that is just so perfect in so many ways. His pick before the halftime was exactly that. He tries to throw an overball in triple coverage, and he threw it with confidence. It wasn't like he doubled clutch.

It was like, I'll throw a prayer. He hitched up with like, yeah, I'm lying at this bad boy in there. And it goes right to the linebacker. Linebacker didn't even have to jump, hit him right in the chest. And it's like, that's what it is. He can giveeth and take it. And so he's, depending on his plays, how well they're going to do, how many of explosive

plays he can scrounge up, how many third downs he can scramble for. I think the defense will keep them in every game. Because like we said last week or a couple weeks ago, the DBs, they figured out how they're using their DBs. This defense aligned. Pain got that tip ball. Jonathan Allen's playing like an all pro. Montez Sweat has a great year.

Chase Young is going to come back. hopefully soon. They're going to hang with a lot of teams, but I think it's more of a good for you season for them. So right now, I think the Giants have like a 50% chance or so to make the playoffs. The Seahawks are still at like 66%

Washington's chances are better than half right now. So it kind of feels like potentially the team that could fall out of this is the Giants, which shouldn't necessarily be a shock to anybody based on the level of talent the Giants have on their roster. Like the first half of the season, yes, the first half of the season was great. The Giants were so much better than we could have anticipated. But the Giants running out of steam among all of these teams hanging out in the bottom of the NFC, I don't think should be overly surprising.

There's a huge game between Washington and the Giants this weekend. They play back-to-back games or at least Washington plays them two weeks. Yeah. I think they go Washington by or New York by New York. The Giants compliment to them. Like they have maximized what they got on both. sides of the ball. That is like, if you're a Giants fan, you should feel so great about what this coaching staff has done. But just watch that Cowboys game on Thanksgiving. It's like you said,

they ran out of steam in this season potentially. And they still can make it wrong. Who knows? They're going to have good game plans every week. But you watch that game against the Cowboys. And it was like, oh, this is a talent wins out kind of game. Talent went out in the end. And that's the difference having quarterback like Dak and a quarterback like Daniel Jones, who again has done some fine things, especially with his legs and how they designed him. But there's a maximum. There's a cap to what they could do. And that's what kind of feels like it's kind of sort of happening to them right now. I also feel like you watch the Seahawks today.

They lose that game to the Raiders. It still feels like they can potentially sneak into the NFC playoffs and the numbers would dictate that they would be one of the seven teams. I think they still have a better than 50% chance at a lot of different places. They also watch what they did today. Their defense struggled against Vegas. They feel like they're a significant step down from the really good teams in the NFC. And I think that's kind of my realization.

and my takeaway here as you watch how this playoff picture is kind of taking shape, is that whatever two of these teams end up making it, could they potentially knock off a Vikings team in the first round of the playoffs that they have to play in the walk-out? Sure. I think they could do that. But I think that there is a significant difference between the way that the Eagles are playing, the way that the Cowboys are playing,

and then the way that the Niners are probably ultimately going to look by the end, then these teams that are in the back half of the NFC playoff picture. I think that's really crystallized over the last couple weeks. Those three have really, it's really creative separation. And like we said last week, thank God. Like some other teams are stepping up like the Niners and the Cowboys along with the Eagles. Eagles are going to beat up a lot of teams. And they are hard to defend unless they play one of these other really good teams in the NFC.

And that's the thing with the Vikings is that the Vikings are, they've stacked a couple nice wins against the Patriots and the Bills. But also it's like, you look at them, it's like, well, the point. differential. The Jaguars have a better point differential than the Vikings right now. Like, it's just, they're just a weird team. And I, they're trying to tier it. You're trying to tear it. I think that there's a tier of three at the top. The Vikings are probably alone in the middle. And then you have the tier of teams at the bottom. And if you want to, we could argue about how you'd stack up the pecking order of those three teams at the bottom. I don't really think it matters. I think that those three teams are kind of sandwiched

together and then you have the Vikings in their own little world of middle ground mediocrity. And then you have some teams that are really, really good. And in the case of Dallas, especially kind of coming together at the right time and looking really, really dangerous. So that's how I would kind of handicap the NFC right now. How of the Seahawks, though? They got the number four pick right now with the Broncos pick. Like this is all.

Mariners made the playoffs. Their Gino's looking great. Their rookies are looking awesome. Things are looking great Seattle. Every single bit of this is crucial. cheese for the Seahawks. All of this is just house money. Let's say they do run out of gas.

And the defense is a little bit more porous and a concern and a question mark heading into the playoffs than it might have seemed for a four-game stretch earlier this season. That's fine. That's totally fun. They're on six games this year. Yes. And I think that's really important to keep in mind. All right.

We're going to take one more quick break. And then we're going to talk about a couple teams who were not. projected to Wicked Sex games this year and are barely squeaking over that. I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed. Let's start with the Bucks. They drop a game to the Browns today, 23 to 17. They're now 5 and 6.

They're still going to win the NFC South. And it's not as if I don't think that they're one of the best seven teams in the NFC. They probably are. The NFC playoffs still probably feels right with the Bucks being in there, with these disappointments and even with them being so underwhelming. I'm just tired of them. This is the sort of game where my takeaway from this is, you know what, I'm just tired of

them. You watch this game and there's just so many elements of what's made this team frustrating coming back again and again. All right. The bucks in this game, okay, ran the ball 14 times on first down. One of them was the 35-yard run to Rashad White on the first drive. On the other 13 carries, how many yards do you think they had? Oh, no, it's bad.

I know it's bad, so let's hear it. Like, I know it's bad. 13 carries for 34 yards on the other 13 on first down. They had a 21.4% success rate on first down rushes in this game. Against a team that cannot defend the run. A team that cannot defend the run. Okay. So there's that side of it.

did you see when Todd Bowles was asked after the game about whether he was considering taking timeouts during that final Browns drive at the end of regulation? I didn't see his quote, but I know how he botched it, but what was his quote? All right. So if you guys that didn't see it, the Browns were driving. They were like inside the five with about a minute and a half left in the game. The bucks had three timeouts. Yep.

The bucks end up getting the ball back there with about 25. seconds left in the game. They easily could have had a minute and a half based on those timeouts. When he started taking them whenever, you give yourself at least a minute and 15. You have 75 seconds with, I don't know, Tom Brady as your quarterback. We're like two weeks removed from seeing what he could do at the end of a game, even if the rest of you, if you're playing like shit for 59 minutes, what he can do for you? They asked him at the end after the game.

I believe it was Greg Alman, who congratulations to him on his new. job, but who used to cover the bucks for the athletic. And it just didn't even seem to register to Todd Bowles that he could have called time out in those situations. So that was one example. And then the other one was, they had a fourth and two from the Cleveland 37 yard line with about 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter. In my mind, the two options in that situation are you go for it on fourth and two and

try to get a first down because you're on the 37 yard line would make a lot of sense for you to try to do that or you potentially try a field goal. The Bucks tried option number three. They picked door number three, which was take a delay of a game and then punt from the 42, launch it into the end zone and gain 17 yards of field position based on where you were before you decided not to go forward on fourth down. It's bonkers. You have Tom Brady. You have, Tom Brady, Corvick. You can't do that. If you're not going to be significantly better than everybody, if you're not going to be giving

your team quantifiable advantages in a bunch of different ways or you're not heads and shoulders more talented or better than the teams you're playing against, you can't have those sorts of disadvantages built into your game management decisions. And that's the problem with this Bucks team is that they aren't this title wave of talent that they have been over the last couple of years and their consideration. consistently putting themselves in less than advantageous positions with the way that they're managing the game. That's where they're at right now.

That's where they're at. That run that you're talking about, that Rashad White run was their longest run of the entire season too. Like that was, yeah, 35 yards. And that's what this whole offense feels like. Their longest pass today was 28 yards. So Mike Evans. Like it's just they're not an explosive offense like they used to.

We talked about how it used to be the hard. It was the expert mode offense and how amazing and brilliant they would be. And not only that they, yes, the running the ball wasn't overall great today. They only ran the ball 30% of the time, which was like really bonkers to me. I feel like this is a game that you like, hey, we're going to find 15 different ways to pound the rock against this defense because we're not going to have, I don't know, Donvin Smith, drop back, press protect against Miles Garrett over. Which was a problem at the end of the game. It over. Yeah.

And a one score game or a tied game for most of the game. I don't know why they resorted that. And also it's just been very frustrating, not only just the game in clock management. And some of the things, and Byron Left, which has done a nice job there the last couple of years, but just what they're doing on offense just doesn't make sense to me. It's early in the year we were talking about their struggles and really the Huckham's Razor here is like, defense has figured out their shit. But also on top of it, they're kind of like not helping themselves.

I always thought one of the crazy things with the Arians' offense is how much empty they would use. And they would just get into these empty modes. attack down the field out of it. In 2020, I've brought up a stat like this before. In 2020, 16% of their overall snaps are an empty, which is a pretty crazy number. This year, it's only 6%. And I know that sounds kind of like, oh, wow, well, just one empty stat, but it's, that's, that was a big part of their offense. And they would attack, that's so hard to defend a team that goes empty and they attack down the field out of empty. As anyone that covers the chiefs or has to defend the chiefs, they've done this for years with Patrick Mahomes. And they're also a lot worse out

of it. Some of it is tied into the O line and some of the bleches with the O line, but I actually think this would help them a little bit because it just lets Tom Brady operate. It gets really good players out in space. You know, Rashad White's a great receiver as well. You don't want him matched up against a linebacker. I don't know. They're not hitting those easy buttons. They've got from under center. 31% of their snaps. About third of their snaps in 2020, we're under center. Now it's just over 20%. Again, that doesn't seem like, oh, wow, this is just one way to waive it. Brady's still effective from under center. It's like, they're trying to only go expert, expert, expert mode where the defense knows what we're trying

to do. We're trying to do a bunch of high lows over the middle without doing any of the easy buttons. And it's, I don't know. They were destroying the Seahawks of play action a couple weeks ago. Destroying them. And they just went away from it. The running game was working. That Seahawks game, I was like, oh, they figured it out. They're hitting the buy week. They stopped getting Lenny carries. Like, oh, they're going to come out of the buy start. Look at this. They're going to get all over the Browns. First drive, I was like, oh, look at them go. Look at them to go. The Red Zone touched on the Godwin. Godwin looked great, again, by the way, thank goodness. But then after they just have no more answers. It's like they have five good plays and they're like,

oh, we already called them. That's it. That's all we got. And it just feels so strange what what this offense looks like right now. Because I just don't think it has to be this hard. They're just not changing up what they're doing. They just keep running into a wall. That process you're talking about, you know, talking yourself into them a little bit watching the Seahawks game. That's what I've just done doing. Like watching this game today, it's like, I'm not going to do this anymore. I know that they're going to make the playoffs based on the state of their division and Atlanta losing again today

and we're going to have to think about them and deal with them when it comes to be playoff time. But any sort of building enthusiasm that we might have had at other moments of the season or thoughts about, you know, maybe they'll figure it out by the end. The benefit of doubt time is over. Like that's, we have

we've run out a runway with giving them the benefit of doubt about potentially getting there. I'm going to need to see it for multiple games in a row before I start inching toward that, huh, maybe the bucks, man,

maybe by the end, because it's just not there right now. They felt like for any NBA fans, how the Lakers felt last year, where it was just like, oh, they'll figure it out.

They'll put it together. They'll figure it out. And they never did. And by the end of the season, you're like, oh, shoot, we just wasted all that time. Also,

I do want to give a shout out. I'm going to be really interested to watch the Browns offense in this game because it was really, like Bill Callahan, awesome job. Like just their pass protection was awesome. They had great snaps of running

the ball on third. or down just not even dealing with Todd Bulls stuff. Browns love being in heavy personnel. And we got Anthony Schwartz siding. Like, yeah, we got a couple nice plays today. Way to go, Anthony Schwartz. Amari Cooper is playing probably the best ball of his career. I really will say that.

I think this is the most consistently well. He had the killer drop on Fort Down. He had the killer drop on Fort Down. And then he makes a huge play. I mean, he put Carlton Davis in the shadow Rome on that near touchdown. And we talked about it after the Thursday night game that, that this is, they're using how he should be used. We, um,

Marry Cooper got pigeonholed. Oh, wow. Look at the dynamic route running. No, he's a vertical guy. And so in a play action heavy offense, it's amazing watching him just running these deeper routes and just eviscerating people. Isn't it so weird how big he looks?

Like when you watched him in Dallas, he never felt that big. And then you watch the way that they're using him now. And it's like, oh, yeah, I forgot that he was like a top five pick and like a no doubt about it top five pick and has built that. way. I don't know if it's a uniform or just like his usage within the offense. The Browns uniforms aren't slimming. I literally don't know what it is, but you watch him playing it's like, man, he just feels so much bigger than he has other points in his career. And he's playing that way. Two other guys I wanted to mention on the Browns before we move on.

Miles Garrett swings that game at the end. He has the sack on the second to last drive. He gets the draws the illegal hands to the face penalty that ends up becoming a huge moment. and then he gets a pressure on the final Brady incompletion on the same drive. And then the other guy who would love to see the All-22, but just TV copy over the course of the entire game, Martin Emerson had some really nice moments against Mike Evans in this game. He did. This is a dude who big body corner, you know, not overly fat, not a ton of long speed, but the fact that he can kind of physically go toe to toe with Mike Evans in this game,

a bright spot in a position group that has been more or less. disappointing this season that the Browns have spent a ton on. So I thought he had a couple really nice moments in this game. I was very impressed with the limited snaps you could see just based on the TB copy. No, that's a great call. Yeah, he, uh, uh, I know a guy that worked with a Bleach report that did DBs really liked him as kind of like a sneaky day two kind of guy. And so it was kind of cool seeing his name flash up a couple times.

The one thing I remember about him is that he's super young. And I could be wrong. That's like, that's like the one thing I remember because I don't, I'll be honest. I don't watch him coming out. I think he was on Mississippi State. So, but no, yeah, a great shout out there. But again, this is where that term comes in with Miles Garrett. Closer.

That's where, that's, he's a closer. And that, that's, he closed that game, like just coming in, like Mariano Rivera, just throwing sliders. You can't, you have nothing. You can't, there's nothing you can do about it. And that's what he did. Martin Emerson, 6.1 and 5 eighths, 200 pounds. 96% wing, 96th percentile wingspan, 97th percentile arm length.

He has offensive tackle arm length, and 36 percentile 40-ar dash runs a 453. So there you go. It's exactly what I was expected when I opened this mock draftable page. Big, long, physical, not very fast. Didn't have to be very fast in this game because, again, he went toe-to-to-to-physically with Mike Evans. All right. Last one here before we get out of here.

Broncos. I'm not mad. It's not even that I'm disappointed. I'm like beyond disappointed at this point. every time you think they hit rock bottom, it goes a little bit deeper. And you have Mike Purcell yelling at Russell Wilson on the sideline today. Russell Wilson trying to explain it away after the game by saying,

you know, we're trying to get on the same page. Right. We're trying to provide a spark. And it's just gotten to the point where I thought that, especially during the first half of the season, some of the commentary about Hackett and his future, I was like,

everybody calmed out. Like, you know how bad you have to. to be to lose your job within the first half of the season as a head coach. You know how bad you have to be to be one and done as an NFL head coach, but it just keeps deteriorating, man. Yeah. I mean, you have to be this bad. And I just don't know what else to say about where they are and where they have to go. Like, it just feels like they need a total reset after this season. And it's just a shocking place to arrive at when you consider what they were supposed to be before the season started.

They're over under, Nate, before the year was 10 and a half. They had a 10 and a half over under. They're about to give a top five pick to the Seahawks if things continue in this direction. They got beat by two scores against Sam Darnold today. Right. It is bad.

The Panthers head coaches in Nebraska now. Like they, they, they, I don't know. It was, I was a little, I was not a little. I was glass half empty. I was a glass quarter empty with this, with this team. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does for me now. But I, I, I thought they would figure it out.

I was like, okay, probably in the middle of October, they'll start putting stuff together. They'll figure out what this offense is. They'll stop listening to Russ and how much empty he wants to play in. And it's just, oh my God. It's just every week it's worse. Like, and it's like comedy of errors, just the game management stuff. special teams not having enough guys out there or having too many guys out there timeouts false starts delay games just one after another and just all the play even my boy pat sur tan

he's getting his ass kick today by dj more and i was like what what's gonna no what is this that's that's the problem is that when it starts to erode to that point everybody's just need to pull the plug everybody's just like fuck it like that you you never want to get to that point that's what it feels like they rest is thrown eight touchdowns this season there's a meme going on right now. Can't remember the account. There's a bathroomometer about whether Russ will throw more touchdowns than bathrooms he has in his house.

I believe it is. And he's getting close. And I think, so his TD percentage was 2.3%. So this year, there have been eight QBs that played 16 or more games in the NFL season that ever since the merger, or since the murder, that have had TD percentage of 2.3 or lower. And that includes. So eight QBs, Russ would be the ninth if it maintains this course, which I can I can't wait for this list.

You got David Carr's rookie season. You got Trent Dilfer's rookie season. You got Jeff George's rookie season. You got Trevor Lawrence's rookie season. You got Drew Bledsoe's second year in Buffalo. And then you got like a Ken O'Brien year. You got some of the worst quarterback statistical seasons of all time. And then you got Russell Wilson on a $200 million plus dollar contract.

Nate, he has $100 million dead cap hit next year. It's dire. It's $107 million. He's been sacked 35 times this year. He was sacked 33 times all of last year. It's and it's just they don't push the ball. The receivers look, they're running to wrong routes or running into each other.

And now there's like rumors coming out that he's saying the wrong plays. Like he's still saying Siak code words. It's they let literally let Sam Darnold roll into the end zone. And I got more than one person tagged this and I want to give shout to everyone that did. There's a wrestler named Orange Cassidy and AEW. His whole gimmick is that he's a slacker, that he's like, his quote is, if you're good at your job and getting paid, why try?

And he doesn't step over the ropes. That's how I feel. He doesn't, he doesn't, I know, he goes backwards hats, looking us right now. He doesn't, he doesn't step over the ropes. He rolls into the ring really slowly.

Like, he just won a championship and he keeps the belt in the backpack and then throws the bag into the bat. That's what Sam Donald scored. That multiple people are like, that was Orange Cassidy that just scored a touchdown. And that's where this team that playoff aspirations in the Broncos. So 10 wins the over-under at the beginning of the year.

And it just looks bad, all-time bad right now. So here's the stat I want to end this with. Okay. I think that way things currently look, seems like he's going to be one undone, right? Yeah. In the last 10 years,

there have been six NFL coaches that were one and done. Mike Malarkey in 2012, Ratshazzynski in 2013, Jim Tom Sula in 2015, Chip Kelly in 26. Steve Wilkes in 2018 and Urban Meyer in 2021. Every single one of those teams before the season had Super Bowl odds of 100 to 1 or longer. Every single one of them, the Bronco Super Bowl odds coming into the season were about 17 to 1.

Oh my God. I think you could make an argument that based on preseason experts, and based on what it has looked like, they might be the most disappointing team of the decade. I think so. And recent memory for me, this and the Eagles dream team. Those are the two in my mind. And that wasn't like this. This is bad.

This is bad, bad. We're going to have a lot of time to talk about what comes next practically with the contract, the coach, how you salvage this. We're actually going to dig into that a little bit on one of our midweek shows, but it is shocking. It is shocking to be in this place. And when I saw those numbers, I was just curious. I was like, I started to look it up. I was like, I wonder what the Super Bowl odds were compared to what this team was coming into the season. Every single one of them was 100 to 1 or longer.

Even if you go back a little bit further to Hugh Jackson in 2011, which is kind of a weird situation with the Raiders. They were like 66 to 1. So still. And you can comment to what the Broncos were before. And that was the year they went undefeated in their division. something they had the weirdest record ever. They were like six and ten and went six and under division. That that was more competent than this. It's bad. It's really bad. All right. A couple notes before we get out of here. Josh Jacobs leads the league in rushing 229 yards today. Contract year,

Josh Jacobs. Good for you, Josh Jacobs. Good for you. He's getting paid somewhere. I mean, whether it's getting franchised by the Raiders or somewhere else. I mean, this guy is going to make a boatload of money this spring. So good for him. 86 yards. walk off touchdown and overtime. The first touchdown he scored, the 30-yarder in this game was ridiculous. The guy looks unbelievable. He's only turning 25.

He's only turning 25. Good for Josh Jacobs. Very proud of Josh Jacobs. Niners and Chiefs, both underwhelming wins today. I mean, stack him up, keep moving on, but I think some things to keep in mind,

CMC, his knee, bothering him, keep it loose on the sideline. Elijah Mitchell getting hurt today. They traded away Jeff Wilson with both of these guys on the roster. And if now they're not going to have healthy running back play, a lot of our enthusiasm about the Niners, we're talking about them on our Thursday show,

was the state of their weapons. And if you start to pull some pieces out of that, changes the math a little bit. Chief's not the best game, but still win by multiple scores. They played with their food today. It was like, you know how many got eight different guys? had multiple catches for the Chiefs.

And they didn't give up a throwback pass in the red zone. Yeah. This is not necessary. They didn't give a, they didn't give up a sack or a TFL. And Mahomes only got hit twice the whole game. They're playing against Aaron Donald. Like they're towing with their food today.

All right. Last thing. He had some guys today that just incredible how over it they are. Oh, yeah. Okay. So Brandon Cooks was asked after the game. You know, when do you guys think you lost it?

And he said, when do you think it was gone? He said when we walked out of the tunnel, essentially when the game started, it was over. All time quote. Kyle Murray, after the game, talking about the fourth down that the Cardinals had. I said, we were schematically fucked, which is really, really good.

Things were clearly going awesome there. It was someone pulled it up. It was like a zone read, and they had like a flat. And it was like, if he handed it off, but it didn't matter if they handed it off because there was like a free runner in the backfield.

So it was a TFL or Kyle are go do something, which is the Cardinals. I somehow forgot that Freddie Kitchens was a one-undone coach. So take everything I said with a grain of salt earlier. I might have missed that one. But I think- Someone brought up the point, like three of those coaches that were one-and-done. Three of those guys were Balky hires, too.

So that's, so I just have to throw that out. Let's just take everything I said with a grain of salt, but I think that still stands everything I said before. And then obviously I had Mike Purcell yelling at Russ today. So a lot of guys just like fucking over it. But, hey, they're on the same page, though. They are very much on the same page. All right.

that is all we have for today. Really appreciate you guys spending the time with us. I will be back home in Chicago starting on Tuesday, so I will be a little bit of a better setup than I have right now, but we're good to go. So appreciate you guys. Listen, if you have not subscribed to the YouTube channel, highly encourage you guys to do that.

So please, if you want to, you can click on the link in the description of this podcast. It's available to you. If you're watching on YouTube right now, obviously you can just click the subscribe button. Please subscribe to the athletic. The athletic.com slash football show is where you can do that. We'll be back on Monday evening in the podcast feed with Mike Sando doing the Monday

Hangover. Until then, I appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.