The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 13 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: December 4, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 13 DFS slate. They discuss building lineups around an elite back or receiver, finally paying up for a quarterback, the desire to get invested in Browns-Titans, and more.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through the slate from a gambling standpoint, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread. Can the Raiders bounce back against the Jets? Will Taysom Hill hit his first speed bump as a starter in Atlanta? Can the Browns spring an upset on the Titans—or at least keep it within 5.5 points? Will the Packers run away from the Eagles? Can the Bills take care of business against the 49ers? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello, everybody, and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Our Happy Friday Marriage continues on into week 13. I am Michael Beller. I am joined for the first part of this show as I am every single Friday by Derek Van Riper DVR. We have made it to week 13. And just like that, it's the weekend, right? It's like, boom, week 13, boom, weekend. We don't usually get to turn the calendar over that quickly. So in some ways, it's, sort of fun that week 12 dragged on for as long as it did. How you doing? I'm doing well. If I live another 70 years, I hope I never see another week like week 12 of the NFL season ever again.

Yes, me too. I could die a happy man 70 years from now if we never repeat what we just had in the NFL. Seven years, you'll be 106. You'll have a nice long, healthy life there, Derek. Yeah, Right. What on earth will life actually be like here in 70 years? I don't think I want to go 70 more years. That might be a little too far. Yeah. Well, either way, I'm sure that we will all agree with you that no more NFL weeks quite like week 12 of the 2020 season. I think we would all be happy with that. We'll be happy if we can turn our week 13 into some successful DFS play. So let's start taking a look at that. It's an interesting slate on the main slate, at least. The highest scoring game, the highest, over-under game, I should say, is Cleveland and Tennessee, 53 and a half there. Then you've got Jacksonville and Minnesota at 52, Indian Houston checking in at 51. That Cleveland, Tennessee game, that's the interesting one to me because it's two teams that run the ball a lot, but still can put some points on the board. And Tennessee favored by five and a half at home, so not necessarily one

where anyone's expecting a runaway, unlike Jacksonville and Minnesota, where the over-under is 52, but the Vikings are favored by 10 points. I feel like Cleveland and Tennessee is a game where I'm going to be hunting for some investment this week. Yeah, and it's strange because of the makeup of those teams, like you mentioned, but as you start looking at projections and expectations in terms of usage for tournaments, there are some interesting opportunities.

Of course, Derek Henry draws most of the interest in the Titans' offense, but a nice low price on Corey Davis could make him pretty popular this week. Those are just two teams that people, at least in their heads, don't expect to see in the middle of a shootout, but the Titans have been mentioned on this show almost every week the season as a team that I think is a bit sneaky offensively. They support a wider offensive tree than we expected coming into the season. Corey Davis getting in on that sometimes, Johnny Smith getting in on that at times.

Ryan Tannahill was backing up what he did a season ago in Tennessee and showing us that it wasn't a complete fluke, right? So I do think you look at the Titans now and you have a little more confidence when you see an implied total in the 28-29 range. You feel more confident they're actually going to get there. Yeah, you really do. And we're going to be talking about plenty of players on both sides of that game. We can start right off the top at the running back position with Derek Henry. A simple question here, Derek, are you willing to pay for either him at 9200 or Dalvin Cook at 9500?

Are you trying to find ways to get one of those two guys into your lineup as the center pin? I am. I think it's interesting that when Cook's only $300 more, there are projections that have him five points higher than Derek Henry for this week. It's a pretty big gap for $300. I mean, it puts Cook kind of in a tier of his own. But I think the concern we have is if that game gets out of hand, Delvin Cook might get some rest.

He's got that ankle injury that it's been limiting him in practice so far this week. I'm not necessarily concerned they're limiting him in practice. I think that's what a team does with a star play. earlier in the week, I'm just concerned that Jacksonville can't do enough offensively to force the Vikings to keep using Delvin Cook. They can build up a lead, turn to Alexander Madison at some point in the second half, and suddenly we have a 20-touch game from Delvin Cook instead of a 30-touch game.

But if they're going to get to that situation where they're holding a two-TD lead in the second half, there's a very good chance Delvin Cook is part of the reason why they're there, right? He's getting over five yards per carry. He's heavily involved in the passing game. So it could be 20 touches instead of 30, but it might be six or seven yards of carry. It could be that good with a couple of scores. If he does that, you're fine at 9,500. So I look at Cook is still the better cash gameplay, given the difference in their projections.

And I do think Henry becomes an interesting pivot if you want to spend up at running back, but you want to do it in tournaments. Obviously, he doesn't catch passes quite the same way Cook does. That's why that projection is quite a bit different. but I'm seeing a projected usage of 7% on Henry on Rotel Grinders compared to 30% for Delvin Cook. So you can play Cook in a tournament and get differentiation elsewhere in your lineup, but you can get that differentiation immediately

and just pivot at the price point by playing Henry instead. Let's look at those two guys in conjunction with the top wide receivers. You've got Devante Adams at $9,000 and then D.K. Metcalfe at 8,200. Keenan Allen at 8100. It's going to be pretty hard to have two of those players in your lineup, even if he went with the cheaper ones, even if you went with Henry and Keenan Allen. You're talking about $17,300 on just two players. You would obviously be scooping up a lot of low-priced guys at other positions.

So if you could only have one of these backs or one of those receivers, is it a pretty easy decision for you to fade the receivers? I think in cash games, it's still cook overall for me. I think in tournaments, I'm more inclined to build a Devante Adams lineup than I am to build a Derek Henry lineup, even though I understand mathematically why Henry is appealing at the price in these circumstances. But because I can only get one of these guys into most of my builds, and that assumes that we're not going to get the same flood of weekend value unlocked with a busy, busy Saturday of surprise injury news that creates a bunch of near-min players that you can actually use,

Adams to me is really interesting because the Packers just don't have a true number two. Even with Alan Lazzard back, they spread the ball around so much that you're not looking at anyone as a threat to his targets in any given week. The implied total is close to 28 points. And it's an Eagles defense that it's middle of the road in terms of what they allowed a wide receiver. So you're not really giving up anything matchup-wise either. I think saving a couple hundred bucks off of the price of Cook, and even a couple hundred off the price of Henry is also appealing with the Devante Adams angle as well.

So for tournament purposes, I think I'm locking him in first out of those three $9,000 players. You mentioned in our show sheet here that we should get ready for David Montgomery Chalk Week. And I mean, I understand why. $5,500 is a fine matchup with the Detroit Lions and volume is always going to be there for David Montgomery.

But I think I'm on the same page when I say that I am very, very comfortable fading that chalk. I just don't trust him or the bear's offense, man. So that's what it comes down to. And even though I get the logic behind it, I just really don't want to get in on David Montgomery, basically full stop. And then especially if he is going to be among the chalkiest plays of the week.

I think there are plenty of pivots where you can find yourself, not only just a differentiation point, but potentially just a better player, period. Yeah, I mean, I'm inclined to find. $800 somewhere else, maybe taking slight downgrade somewhere else in my lineup and using that difference to get to Chris Carson because I trust Seattle's offense so much more than I trust the Bears. But this is all about volume, right? I mean, David Montgomery at 5,500 in the most favorable matchup that are running back and have is hard to pass up when you consider that

David Montgomery gets all of the touches in that backfield. You get the occasional Cordor L Patterson play, but there is not a backup running back pushing him for carries. There is not a pass-catching specialist getting on the field. It's David Montgomery time after time, after time. I think this is basically like the situation we have in Houston with David Johnson. You don't expect efficiency to be there, but he basically doesn't come off the field. And the key difference for me between Montgomery and David Johnson is that David Johnson has to deal with Duke Johnson. Right. And ordinarily, if Tariq Cohen were healthy, that would be the similarity. But ever since Cohen went down, the bears have been a lot more aggressive in using Montgomery in passing situations. I mean, look at the targets. David Montgomery hasn't had fewer than three targets in a game this season. He's had five or more in all but one of his last seven contests. So that just brings his volume floor to a crazy high level. We're going to have the same problem again in week 14 when the bears play the Texans, because They're the second easiest matchup for opposing running backs.

The price might be a little higher. But I think I'm less inclined to fade David Montgomery than you are. I do think you could, again, try and get to Chris Carson if you're really worried about it. Because I think the other backs that are a couple hundred dollars more expensive than Montgomery in the sub 6K range bring just as much, if not more risk than Montgomery does. All right. Let's throw out someone else who we talk about in this space quite a bit. Jonathan Taylor, $5,700. He is someone who I am very happy.

to bite on this week. I know we're always going to have to do what we can to get inside Frank Reich's head and hope for the best. But you go back to the last time we saw Jonathan Taylor. He was clearly in command of the Colts backfield, 22 carries for 90 yards, four targets, caught them all for 24 yards in that game against the Packers. Neither Jordan Wilkins nor Naim Hines did anything to distinguish himself a week ago. And even though that was a game where the Titans were comfortably ahead really early on in the game and didn't necessarily lend itself to either of those guys getting going on the ground. I think we see a really nice game for Jonathan Taylor at 5,700. I think he's an easy guy to pair with one of the two high-priced guys, or if you want to go to

Nick Chub at $7,700, Austin Echler at $7,100. I think Jonathan Taylor is a guy who gives you a lot of options this week. I think it's fair to say Jonathan Taylor clearly tournaments only. There's definitely not enough of a steady roll from him to this point where you could trust him in cash games. But I was just talking about the Texans being a soft matchup next week for David Montgomery. Well, that's the opponent this week for Jonathan Taylor. So I see the appeal. I'm not building a whole bunch of Jonathan Taylor lineups. But I think if I think about how I want to attack the Colts offense from a DFS perspective,

it's either Pittman or Taylor. That's it. There's nobody else that I'm throwing darts at right now, even though Trey Burton is fine in the end zone enough to drive us all kind of crazy. Let's move things over to the wide receiver position here. We already talked about the high price guys, or at least we mentioned them in reference to the running back. So we've got Devante Adams at 9K, DKs at 8200, Keenan Allen's at 81,100, DeAndre Hopkins 78, A.J. Brown 76. Tyler Lockett, 74, Adam Thieland, 73, and so on and so on and so on. I want to ask you about these Minnesota Vikings because they've got to.

that matchup with Jacksonville. We talk about Delvin Cook, probably fueling the sort of lead that would then push him out of the game. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, meanwhile, you would think would be on the field the whole time and also could fuel that sort of game. So Thielen at 7,300, Justin Jefferson at 6,900 in this matchup with the Jacksonville defense that really can't stop anyone on the ground or through the air. Basically, I'm up one of them. It's almost like I'm to build a lineup and then see how much I have left over. And if I can get to Thielin, I'll go Thielin. If I can only get to Jefferson, I'll go Jefferson. But I really want one of these Minnesota guys in my lineup because I think that they are really just going to take

care of business in a big way against the Jaguars. Are you comfortable using one of the Minnesota receivers in a lineup that also has Delvin Cook in it? I think yes, but I think that that would then start to get into one of those tough build situations because you're still talking about spending, even if it's Justin Jefferson, you're up over what 16K or right at 16K with just two players. So it starts to get to a point where it feels as though you're going to be sacrificing

a lot elsewhere, and I would rather go with a different running back. But I think that them being on the same team is no reason to run away from having both of them. Yeah, I think it's still a little more of a cash lien for me than a tournament lean because I want to have more in the passing game, even though Cook is involved in that regard.

but yeah, the money aspect is certainly a concern. I do think we're looking at Brandon Cooks this week as a receiver who basically is the David Montgomery of receivers because he's underpriced, factoring in, Will Fuller's suspension. Targets are going to go up, but by how much? I mean, I think that's a reasonable question to ask. Even if he were just priced at 5,600 and Will Fuller were playing, Brandon Cooks would be interesting in this matchup. It's just not an obvious must-play sort of situation. And I think the key here is when you look at the other receivers in that range, Jacobi Myers, someone who I generally like, you know, 5500 definitely has more week-to-week variance,

a lot less faith, I think right now for me in Cam Newton in that Patriots passing game than what we have in Deshaun Watson and the Texan's passing game. I think I mentioned Corey Davis a little earlier at 5100. He works, but he's the clear number two in that passing game, whereas Cook's is the number one. So I think Cooks is kind of a lock for cash games. I think you can easily start to find paths away from him in GPPs. You're not going to live to regret that. I guess the way I want to say it is you don't have to have him to win a tournament, obviously.

And I think there's about an equal amount of risk with Cooks as there actually is with David Montgomery getting a lot of volume and doing less than we hope with it. So I think that's why those guys are so similar in my mind this week. even though obviously they're at different positions. You know, someone who I, uh, who is pretty much a lock for me this week is Alan Robinson. And you can have all the David Montgomery you want. If I'm going to have a bear in my lineups, I think it's going to be Alan Robinson. The volume for him, we know it's just, it's just not a problem. I mean, nine or more targets, Derek, in five, six, seven, eight, nine games in the season.

I mean, it's going to be there. He's going to get nine, ten looks for Mitch Trubisky. And Mitch Trubisky has never fallen short of giving him at least nine looks in his starts. And last week, you know, that was an ugly, ugly game for the Bears. There's no way to spend that from a real-life perspective. They look terrible in that loss to the backers. But you come out of it and Alan Robinson has eight catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns. And that is always, that volume is always going to be there for him. $6,700 is the price tag. A Detroit team that really doesn't scare you. A Detroit team that you go back to week one, he had five grabs on nine

targets for 74 yards against. And hey, playing at home, the Bears are favored in this game. So it may not be one that is as ugly as it was last week for the Bears. I think Alan Robinson is just significantly underpriced this week. Right. I think if you have a lot of people going after Montgomery, you're getting leverage on the Montgomery lineups by going to Robinson. He'll probably be used less than half as often, maybe even a third as often is David Montgomery based on how things are tracking right now. So that totally makes sense. We've seen over the course of his career quarterback play just doesn't hinder him all that much. The matchup's not a bad one against the Lions, so no problems at all with that.

And I think you could probably say with the price on Delvin Cook this week, you could look at Alan Robinson at 6,700 and say, that's my price ceiling at wide receiver in a lot of my builds. You might not be able to get up to the 7K receivers, but you might not have to because of some of the savings we're seeing around both running back and receiver to this point. We're moving on to quarterbacks next, but there's a quarterback receiver combo that has come up short over the last couple of weeks, one that we were leaning on quite a bit earlier in the season. And it's DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray. $7,800 is the price tag on DeAndre Hopkins.

So he's right up there with the guys who have been delivering week after week. D.K. Metcalfe, no concerns there. Keenan Allen, no concerns there. Next highest price guy is DeAndre Hopkins. Got to pay more for him than you do for A.J. Brown or Adam Thielen or. throw it over to Nick Chub at the running back position. This is a very tough matchup with the L.A. Rams coming to town to take on the Cardinals. I think you can make the argument that this sort of defense, the way that it is built,

is the worst sort of defense for Kyle and Murray to see. I think this is a pretty easy week to fade Hopkins, fade Murray, fade this entire team. Yeah, I kind of look at them as Bigfield tournament darts only because they're going to be very sparingly used. You're not getting that much of a discount on Hopkins, even though he could cost 8K plus in a good matchup week. You're still paying a lot to get to Murray. Maybe you throw him in as part of a stack with Kirk and run it back with one of the Rams,

but you know you're taking on a lot of risk. That is not an easy matchup. That was, I think, a pretty fluky performance from the Rams defense with Debo Samuel tearing them up last week. I think they're going to bounce back in a pretty big way. So I think you're right. This is generally a stayaway sort of situation outside of your biggest field tournaments where you really want to do something that's very different with your stacks. It's not something that we have said often, but with the way that that offense has sputtered recently and then getting this matchup on top of it, a Rams defense that is playing some of the best football it has played this season.

Definitely a good week to stay away from DeAndre Hopkins from Kyla Murray. Let someone else beat you with them, but it feels like a bad week to get invested in that team. All right, Derek, let's do it. Let's talk about this quarterback position. If you are going to pay up, I want to start with these top guys, if you are going to pay up, if you have the money, if you have found enough savings to pay for one of the top five quarterbacks, and those top five quarterbacks are Russell Wilson, 7,700, Kyler Murray, 7,600, Sean Watson, 7,500, Justin Herbert, 6,900, Aaron Rogers, 6,800.

Who's it going to be and why? I think it's got to be Rogers, partially because you're paying the least out of the group. But when you look at the projections, he's not far off what Wilson and Watson are expected to do, only about two to three points below Russell Wilson this week. The Packers have an implied total right around the same number. They're at 27 and changed. Seahawks right now are at 28 and change. And we know with Aaron Rogers, they'll throw the ball inside the five-yard line. So it's not like they just become a running team in close. And that bodes really well for kind of boosting that ceiling as well. So I think you have tournament winning ceiling with Aaron Rogers based on the

way that offense functions. Interesting to see that he's got a 5% projected ownership rate this week. That is pretty low for how well he's played and for the price. I wouldn't be surprised that that actually ticked up as we get closer to Sunday. But when you see Tassum Hill at 6,300, don't you just want to find $500 to get to Rogers instead to not deal with the headache of Hill? Absolutely, I do. First of all, Aaron Rogers has six one-yard touchdown passes this season. He's got a seventh from two yards. So very clearly, they're not afraid to throw it from that range.

He's got one, two, more from three yards. So, I mean, they're going to throw, throw, throw this team, really no matter where they are in the field. And not only do I want to find that extra couple of hundred dollars to get from Taysam Hill to Aaron Rogers, but I want no part of Taysam Hill this week. I just feel like an Atlanta defense that has been playing a little bit better of, late getting their second look at him in three weeks. I think this could be a bad spot for

Taysam Hill. I want absolutely no part of that. I'm going Aaron Rogers if I've got the money to spend for it or I'm looking down to maybe Kirk Cousins is 6,400, maybe Ryan Tannehill at 6,200. Actually, Ryan Tannahill is another interesting way to get invested in Cleveland and Tennessee because he's just hyper-efficient this year and he's probably not going to go out and roll up 350 yards against the Browns. That's just not the way that this offense runs. But out of the Gany of us would be surprised if he rolled up 243 yards and three touchdowns. And that's just how efficient he has been and the sort of opportunities that are presented to you when you play against this Brown's defense. So Brian Tannhill, one of my favorite plays to go to if I reach beyond that

that expensive group of guys. Yeah, he's definitely interesting. And I mean, again, leverage off of Henry lineups, even though Henry's not going to be crazy high usage. I do think, you know, pairing Tannahill with Corey Davis makes sense. I think the problem is I want to want to get to A.J. Brown, but 7600 is steep. It makes him appealing in tournaments, but I don't know if he fits as part of a Ryan Tannahill Titan stack. I don't know if that actually works for me this week based on how the rest of the lineup has to come together.

But I think if you're going to go cheap at quarterback, are you limited to doing that only in tournaments at this point? I feel like the floor from cash game quarterbacks is higher than it's ever been, and your sub-6K quarterbacks just don't get there easily enough. I mean, the guy that I like for tournament purposes is Derek Carr. He let us down in a big way in a cake matchup against the Falcons. Just an absolute dumpster fire day for the Raiders. Nothing is better in terms of a get-well matchup than the Jets.

The only drawback, and we've talked about this throughout the week. The only drawback is having to go back across the country again to play that game on the road. But at 5,800, do you think Derek Carr? brings enough ceiling to actually use him in tournaments this week. I think he does. It's the ceiling that scares me, though. I mean, the Raiders have had some really good efficient games this year where Derrick Rann hasn't really given you much of anything.

I mean, you're looking at a 261 and 2 against the Patriots in week three. You've got a 165 and 2 in a win over the Chargers in week 9. I mean, he has a couple of games like that on his, on his. his doc, go back to week one, 239, and one in a 34-point game against the Panthers, where Josh Jacobs ran for three touchdowns. That's the one thing that holds me back from him a little bit. But I will say that if you do go, if you are looking to those sub-6K guys, I think he has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

I still wouldn't fully trust Jared Goff going to Arizona. I still feel like there's a higher ceiling attached to Derek Carr. Cam Newton, no thanks. It's rushing or nothing. And I just don't want to be backing that. Matthew Stafford still dealing with the thumb. It's still a tough passing game matchup going up against the Bears, even if Hakeem Hicks is out again.

That really has more effect on the run game than it does on the past game. So I really don't want to get involved with Matthew Stafford. Really don't want any piece of Matt Ryan without Julio Jones. And it's looking like that could be the case of Leo Jones missing practice again on Thursday. So that could be a concern. You know, you look up and down, and it really does look like Derek Carr. The next guy who I would probably turn to would be, you know, Mitch Trubisky at 5,400 or Baker Mayfield at 5,300, and I'm wondering if either of those guys are interesting enough to you

with the extreme savings to want to turn to. Same kind of thinking. I guess you do wonder about the ceiling, and that's why these guys are priced down where they are. So Baker, I think, because of that setup for the game is pretty interesting. It's amazing. He's only averaging 16 and a half fantasy points per game, easily the lowest average of his career to this point. I think with Jarvis Landry stepping up in a big way last week, I'm a little more encouraged about Baker than I would have been going into that matchup against the Jags. What is the true ceiling?

We saw five touchdown passes in week seven against the Bengals, and he hasn't topped two in any other game so far this season. I think this is the rare time where I'd consider it, kind of looking at the schedule for Mayfield. I like him against Tennessee this week, and I don't hate him in week 16 against the Jets for the same reasons, but I generally don't want to play Baker Mayfield, unless I absolutely have to, and I don't feel like I have to.

What about the other quarterback in the Packers-Eagles matchup? No, thank you. Carson Wentz. No, thank you. It looks so bad, but he's going to get Zach Ertz back potentially. That changes some things with this offense, and he's getting it done on the ground. Five rushing TDs and 11 games is really fluky. It's hard to bank on that each and every week, but 258 rushing yards. It's playing from behind often.

That could easily be the script against the pack. Packers, so the attempt should be there. I'm just thinking, again, big field tournaments, players that no one likes right now, what could go right. His ceiling is actually higher than Derek Carr, even though his floor is considerably lower. There is more risk here to be absolutely clear. And in that risk, you had the possibility of Jalen Hertz taking on a larger role at some point.

But I do think of him playing a $3 mass entry tournament. I might have to throw one eagle stack out there this week and cross my fingers. that they can find a way to get it done. They've just looked so bad on offense. And I mean, oh, your logic has totally sound, obviously, and knowing what the ceiling can be and pivoting away and going to someone who people aren't liking. I mean, that's all sound logic,

but they've just been so bad offensively. You know, he doesn't have a game with more than two touchdowns this season? Not one game with more than two touchdowns. He has one 300-yard game, his next highest yardage output behind that 359-yarder he had against the Giants. was 258 yards against the Steelers in a game that the Steelers were controlling throughout. I mean, this is just, it's been such a bad offense all season. And I know they've had more than their fair share of injuries, but I just don't want to get involved with them whatsoever.

So sorry, but I'm staying away. I'm staying away from these guys. Ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly stack for a big field tournament. That's the only way I would do it, but I'm not writing it off completely. You know where I would get involved with the Eagles? is at the tight end position. I mean, I think that that's really where this team is interesting. I love Dallas Goddard.

I still love Dallas Goddard here this week. He's my default tight end. I think he's still someone who you can count on with Zach Ertz. Back in, we talked about this on Fantasy Football in 15 on a Thursday's episode. And, you know, Dallas Goddard comes in at $4,300. I think he's the best past catching weapon on the team right now. So I feel very good about him. Do you feel good about Ertz at $3,900?

Yeah, in the tournament vein, I do not. We don't know what the volume is going to be, but if we just give Richard Rogers targets to Ertz, his first game back, you're looking at five or six. If he gets typical Ertz usage, then maybe it's 8 plus, but I'm going in at 3,900 expecting 5 to 6 targets. I'm just hoping that one or two of them comes in the red zone. I think he would fit within a Carson Wentz stack, and that's about the extent to which I'm actually throwing Zach Ertz out there this week. even though we expect them to run a lot of 12 and get both of those tight ends on the field together, I think you're right that until we see Ertz back at 100%, Goddard has to be treated as the number one tight end,

which effectively is the number one pass catcher in the Eagles offense right now. Who do you look to? If Ertz is the guy who you're looking to in tournaments, who you're looking to is a cash game stable? I do think you could go Goddard and cash. No problem with that at all. I think the other interesting wrinkle as a result of the Houston situation that we touched on earlier is Jordan Aiken's.

All of Will Fuller's targets can't go to Brandon Cooks. We do see Aiken's occasionally get a little more involved in this Houston offense. Week to a week, he's been difficult to predict. I mean, you see a six-target game and a seven-target game in there, but those are separated by about eight weeks in between. You get the Ravens game in week two where he's targeted seven times and the Patriots game in week 11, where he was targeted six times against the Lions on Thanksgiving, two targets.

didn't catch a pass. So it's pretty scary, but I do think for a sub 3K tight end, you could sort of punt at the position, hope he kind of falls more to that four to five range. If he pulls in a TD, you're going to be really happy at that price. And I think that's one of the keys to opening up that extra cash you need. You know, if you're paying up for Delvin Cook and you're not going cheap at quarterback, you're going to have a hole somewhere in your lineup, and tight end is probably the best place to take on that risk. And if you are looking for a silver lining with that two-target game that Aiken's had against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Both of those targets were end-zone targets, and he nearly came down with both of them.

One of them was just a straight drop. One of them was a pass where Watson just barely missed him, catchable ball, but would have been a nice catch. Both in the end-zone. So he was that close to having a two-touchdown game, even though it was just two-target games. So that's definitely a silver lining going forward for Jordan Aiken's, and I agree with you, a nice guy to pivot to if you're going to go really cheap at this position.

And speaking of really cheap, let's wrap things. up with the defensive spot. I like what you've got here. The Cleveland Browns, 2.5K, even though it's a high-scoring game, that doesn't mean you should be staying away from the defenses. Right. I mean, if Ryan Tannanhill attempts 35 passes, there's opportunities for sacks, there's opportunities for picks. We've seen the Browns put up, I think, three double-digit fantasy point performances so far this season. It's all about saving money. This is the other spot where I'm willing to go a little bit weaker, so to speak, in my lineup. And I think the price is absolutely right. on the Browns this week.

2,500. Look, you want a cheap team that gets pressure. The Browns do that. So that ticks enough boxes for me. I'm with you there, and they get Miles Garrett back. He has missed two games after being on the COVID list, but he will be back for the Browns this week against the Titans. I'll throw one more defense out before we get out of here.

How about the Falcons? I mean, I just really think that a professional defense getting to see a quarterback like Tayson Hill two times in three weeks is going to be good. And this Falcons defense has looked a little bit better of late. I mean, we talked about thinking that the Raiders were going to be able to, you know, pass and run all over him. And they totally shut the Raiders defense down. They made the Raiders look bad, frankly, last week. And I think that with the way that they have played up late, with the fact that they just saw Taysam Hill, that they can have themselves a nice day, just $2,400 also.

So a good place to spend, a good place to save, a nice way to save and a nice way to maybe play against some of the Taysam backers that are out there. We're definitely happy that your backers of us and listening here. and we're definitely happy that Derek Van Riper has been here to share with us some DFS wisdom for Week 13 DVR. Good luck this weekend. Yeah, good luck to you guys. We move things along now to the against the spread pick portion of the show, and to do that, we bring on Vic Taver. Vic, of course, covers the Las Vegas Raiders for us here at the athletic. You can also catch Vic's picks every single week where he basically does what we're about to do in written form.

We bring it to you right now in podcast form. Vic, how you doing? Doing good, man, doing good. Yeah, I bet you're doing good. Coming off a four and one week, that was a huge one for you. When I was going through our sheet from a week ago and updating everything for this week, it was the first four that were listed. I was like, oh, 1 and 0, 2 and 0, 3 and 0.

I started getting excited for you. The four wins were Buffalo, Miami, New Orleans, and Seattle. The one loss you took was on the Rams. They actually lost straight up as favorites to the 49ers. I, on the other hand, one and four an ugly week for me. I was with you on Buffalo, so we upped our consensus record to six and seven. I had losses on Cleveland, the Giants, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City. So, well, first, four and one.

How does it feel, man, to be coming on a hot streak? You were, what, four and one or three and two the week before that, too? So things are starting to turn around a little bit. Yeah, I have a little pride. Who would have thought? I have a little pride trying to come back from the pits of hell. But yeah, all of a sudden, I'm put four games behind you, so I'm trying to catch up to you. Yeah, it's been a brutal stretch for me here.

And let me just say, you know, games happen the way they happen. I've been on the right side of some things that probably shouldn't have gone my way. But last week, it was just punch after punch. The Browns were covering their spread the whole way. Then they get that fourth down roughing the passer. The Jaguars end up punching in a touchdown, lose the cover there. The Giants covering their spread the whole way. They get a pretty soft pass interference call on Tyler Boyd in the end zone, setting the Bengals up with first and goal from the one.

Bengals punched that in. Giants lose the cover right there. The Chiefs covering their three and a half basically the whole way. Buccaneers rally back in the second half lose that one by a hook. I mean, I was that close to joining you in the four-in-one club a week ago. It didn't happen, unfortunately. That's just the way this goes, right? It's got to take your licks when they come.

So I'll try not. That was it. I told you before we started, I needed a, I needed a like, that minute right there just to say my piece. Take it. Take it. Take a minute. It's key. Those are key moments. You got to try to rebound and kind of have some confidence left over from a bad week. Yeah, you got to just spill it out, be done with it. And hey, we can turn it forward with a positive note. We hit our combined website pick. We both said

Titans over Colts as a straight-up winner. And they did indeed win that game very easily taking the lead in the AFC South. You mentioned you are now four games behind me, 26, 33, and 1. I fell to 30, 29, and 1. Our consensus record, though, up to 6 and 7, so feeling good about that. Let's spin things forward now to Sunday. Again, these lines, courtesy of the consensus over at Vegas insider. First game on the board is one, where we indeed have a pick. It was hard for me to decide what I was going to go with my fifth pick, and this is ultimately what it was. Bears minus 3 at home against the Lions. I'm going back to the well here, Vic. I am picking.

the Chicago Bears to cover the three against the Lions. What I lean on here is that even without Akeem Hicks, and he is not practicing again for the Bears. So, well, looking as though he might not play, but even without him, the best unit on the field when the Bears and Lions get together is unquestionably the Bears' defense. And it looks like Kenny Goladay is going to have to miss another game because of a hip injury.

DeAndre Swift is out of concussion protocol. Did miss Thursday's practice with an illness, but would bet on him being out there. But still, with Matthew Stafford, still not quite at 100%. Bears' defense, I think, should be able to control this game. And Mitch Trubisky, it wasn't the best game from him and we could go against the Packers. But even before that game got out of hand,

you saw him make a couple of impressive throws. The Bears had to settle for a field goal after getting into the red zone on their first possession. Then after one of those impressive throws, he reverted to Old Mitch and threw an interception. And then they marched down field again on their third possession before having to give it up once again. So that game was very close to still be.

close at least through the first half. The Packers were going to win that game always. I mean, I don't think there's any question about that. But the Bears didn't play as poorly as the halftime score would suggest. And, you know, I think we can give even someone like Mitch Trubisky a little bit of the benefit of the doubt for shaking off the rust against a very good team after not starting for, you know, basically two months. So I think that the Bears with their defense, with Mitch having that start under his belt, should be able to protect home field and get a win against the Lions team. though they maybe get a little bit of a bump after letting Matt Patricia go, really are just playing out the string at this point?

Where are you at on this game? Yeah, I hear you with the Bears defense, and that's definitely some value there. I think the new coaches have done pretty well this year in their first week out. They have? I think Patricia leaving. That's just a huge dark cloud. It's got to have some kind of positive effects to that team.

So I might lean the other way, but I definitely agree with you, the Bears defense is the one legitimately good unit on the field. You see Kenny Galladay liked the post on Instagram from the last. Lions, when the Lions, you know, said, made the post about letting Patricia go, it got a like from Kenny Gallaudet. Well, when I asked him after the game, but his thoughts were, he was like, yeah, I got no comment. So that was the kiss of death, the estimation, Patricia still be the guy here?

He's like, I got nothing. I have nothing to say. So now, I think he was fired the next day, so I think that was up for the last straw. And, I mean, it's amazing. He lasted this long, just to look at the week by week blows. He's done, just the decision-making and players don't like him very much. just a complete disaster of a hire. And easy to forget that there was a 9 and 17 that he inherited.

It wasn't like this was some total like 3 and 13 year after year after year squad that he was inheriting from Jim Caldwell. They went 9 and 7 Caldwell's last year. So long overdue, but Matt Patricia now gone. I still like the Bears to cover in the first game of the Daryl Bevel interim coach era. Next game up, Dolphins minus 11.5 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. This game brings with it an over under of 42 and a half. And you have a pick on this game.

Not afraid of that big number. You are backing the Miami Dolphins. It is a big number. In your opening rant about the Giants pick last week, I agree with you because Brandon Allen, the quarterback for the Bengals, is really, really bad. I mean, there's some bad quarterbacks

who've come in this year in NFL, but he's one of the worst. He should have had four picks in that game. I think only had one. I've got lucky another one. So I think the Dolphins have a good defense. I don't see them looking past the Bengals here, they're a young team on the rise.

So I think the quarterback play gives me a big edge there. No matter who plays for the Dolphins, there's a huge edge of quarterback in that game. That's exactly where I was going. You feel fits too. It really doesn't make a difference. You're totally fine back in the Dolphins, whoever it is. Yeah, I think Allen's a bad. I watch a little bit more of that game than anyone probably should.

Alan's terrible. I mean, he really is bad. So I think that the dolphins have good cornerbacks, have a nice blitz scheme. So I think it should be a long day for him, sir Allen. Yeah, no surprise either. I mean, that was something we saw in his three start. the Broncos last season, carrying that right over to Cincinnati. So one pick a piece for both of us.

Next game, neither of us have a pick. Colts minus three and a half at the Texans. 51 is the over-under. This was one, Vic, when I first saw the matchup last week after the week ended. I thought that I was going to be all over this. Then we heard about the Will Fuller suspension, and that pulled me off of Houston. I don't think that Will Fuller being out necessarily moved this line too much, but that is just a huge weapon for Houston to lose.

and that really is what made me want to back off of it so we can skip right past that and go on to our next game. Vikings are minus 10 at home this week. They are taking on the Jaguars 52 is the over under. And Vic, here you are again, not afraid of the big spreads, backing the Vikings. You've been attacking the Jaguars of Leighton again, like the Vikings here to cover this 10-point spread.

Yeah, the Vikings should have covered last week. They had not one but two fumble returns against them for touchdowns. That's pretty amazing. I think they're playing better. as a year goes on. And like you mentioned, the Jags are terrible. So I think the Vikings definitely can run the ball all day and keep that score at a nice comfortable margin. Yeah, Vikings all of a sudden back in the playoff hunt, too, sitting at five and six. They could definitely play their way into the postseason with that extra playoff spot now alive

this year. And that's the way I would lean in this one, too. Not going to pick it. I'm a little afraid of what the Vikings floor has been that we have seen. And if this were Gardner Minchu getting the start for Jacksonville, I would be inclined to go with the Jaguars as one of my five picks, but I just can't get behind Mike Lennon, and I especially can't get behind a team that is basically telling us, I mean, there's no argument for starting Mike Lennon over a healthy Gardner Minchu,

and there's no practice, there's no injury report for Gardner Minchu. He's healthy, he's good to go. Doctors have cleared him after he has missed about a month with that thumb injury. So the Jaguars are basically telling us, we want to still take a shot at Trevor Lawrence. We know we're a game behind the Jets in the Trevor Lawrence Derby, but we want to keep ourselves alive in that. And if we don't get him, we'll fall back to Justin Fields or someone else.

But they want to be in that Trevor Lawrence race. And that's what they're telling us by starting Mike Glenn and over Gardner, Minchu, at least. That is my opinion. Next game up, oh, well, let's, yeah, you know what? Let's just go with the next one I've got list. Because I actually have something I want to say about Saints and Falcons. Next game, Raiders, minus 8 at the Jets. Another lot of traveling for the Raiders, as you know, very well.

47 here is the over-under in this game. but we're both going to go ahead and lay the wood on the Raiders at minus 8. You obviously very close to this team, so I will let you take the mic here and tell us why this is a good bet to make. Well, my opinion is more anti-Jets than it as pro-Raders. I mean, the Raiders kind of fooled me last week. They all told me they were upset about the loss of the cheese. It's not sad. They weren't going to dwell on it.

They're going to be out and fired up. And obviously, that wasn't the case. The Falcons gave them pretty good. So I think this is a pure spot of talent in the field. The Jets, I think, have lost. I look it up. When they've played winning teams of winning records, they've lost by an average margin of 19 points this year.

And the Raiders, I think, are still a good team, even though they slipped up last week. So I think they should be able to run the ball, should be able to pass the ball, and even though I get some pressure on Sam Donald. So I think it's an easy win for the Raiders on Sunday. I mean, I still keep going into weeks wanting to find ways to take the Jets. But, I mean, they're terrible.

Every single week is terrible. They've lost two games. year by one score. One was to the Patriots 30 to 27, then the Chargers the very next week, 34 to 28 a game they rallied back and actually made respectable. But other than that, they've lost every single game by more than two, by more than one score. They've lost many games by more than two scores. They're just a really truly awful team and a team that is setting itself up to actually get Trevor Lawrence. And I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Raiders. I mean, say what you will about the loss to Atlanta. It feels anomalous. I mean, this is a team that

beat the Chiefs once hung very tough with them in the second game beat the Saints. This is a good Raiders team, certainly a good enough team to handle its business against the worst team in the NFL. So I'm comfortable laying me eight and taking the Raiders. One more game in the, or two more games in the early window. One more that we're not taking. One more than neither of us has a pick on. It is the Saints minus three at the Falcons.

46 is the over under. Vic, I was very close. This is my sixth pick, and it was going to be on the Falcons. I just, with the way that this defense has played a lot better of late, and I think that this defense getting to see Taysam Hill for the second time in three weeks, I think that things could be a lot different than they were the first time. And it's not as though things were gangbusters for the Saints offense the first time around. Last week was basically a nothing of a game for the Saints against the Broncos.

And I think that this could be a very different look for this entire offense going up against the defense. That is very familiar with what they're going to do. throw at it this week. And if they don't get Alvin Camara involved as a receiver, which they have not done in either of Tason Hill starts, I think the Saints' offense might have a tough time in this one. So it just barely missed the cut for me, but I do like the Falcons here. What's your lean on this game, even though neither of us is putting it in our five? Yeah, I'm with you. I think I like the Falcons a lot, too, for those reasons you mentioned. I think I think probably have my seventh pick have had to rank them. They were pretty close to the top five, but not quite there. But I like the

falcons a lot in this game. I think they're underrated. I think they mentioned I lost the Saints two weeks ago, but I'm sure going against him a second time in three weeks is probably an edge. So I like him a lot in the spot too. Yeah, I think it's got to be. And they really got to get, the Saints really have to get Alvin Camara more involved as a receiver. Such a dynamic part of their offense.

I don't care who your quarterback is. It is not good to give Alvin Camara two targets across two games. So that is not something that you want last game in the early window. Titans, five and a half point favorites at home against the Browns, 53 and a half over under. This is a huge game in the AFC. Both of these teams appear headed to the postseason, but Browns unlikely to win their division.

Titans certainly could fall back and not win the division with the Colts just one game behind them, so this could be a tiebreaker game of sorts. Both these teams coming into it at 8 and 3. We both like the erode dogs in the Cleveland Browns. Getting that 5.5, I think the Titans win this game, but this just feels like a little bit too big of a number for me. Cleveland team. I know I keep saying it week after week, but I'm going to say it again here.

A Cleveland team that knows exactly what it wants to do on offense and more often than not has been able to do it. And let's put some respect on Nick Chubbs' name. All this guy, go please, go look at Nick Chub's game logs. Ever since he took over as the starter about halfway through his rookie year in 2018 and look at what this guy does every single week. This is a throwback style of player. If Nick Chub played in the 90s, we would be talking about him contending for MVP awards. Nick Chubb just drives the Cleveland offense, and I don't think that Tennessee is going to be able to run away to a point where they make Nick Chub irrelevant. I think Cleveland keeps this game close. I think it's a fun back and forth game, has the highest over under on the board,

actually, this week at that 53 and a half, and I think that this one does indeed stay within a touchdown going back and forth. I think the Browns have a chance to pull the upset. I'm not calling that, but I definitely think they keep it close. Why are you on the Browns? Yeah, I think for me, The reasons you said also, the Titans are coming off, you know, huge emotional wins against the Ravens and the Colts. Like I said, it'll be a total letdown, but they can't be as up for this game as they were for those last two. I think you mentioned the Browns's offense has been very consistent as the running game goes. And they get Miles Garrett back this week. That's a big deal.

Miles Garrett's one of the better defensive players in the league. So I think it's a good spot for the Browns. I think I did pick him to win outright. I think that's my upset pick, if I'm not mistaken. So, yeah, we're definitely both on the same page. Yeah, and you mentioned Miles Garrett, coming back for them, Taylor the Juan, obviously still out. And the Titans have adjusted to that, but still, they haven't necessarily faced a guy quite like Miles Garrett,

who can bring that speed off the edge. So that could be a unique challenge for the Titans as well. Let's move things over into the late window. There's just one pick for us here, and it's your fifth pick already. So I'm just going to list the three games in the late window where neither of us has a pick. First, Seahawks minus 10 at home against the Giants. 46 and a half is the over under there. Chargers are pick them against the Patriots at home.

47 and a half is the over under there. Then the big one in the late window. Rams minus three at Arizona, 48 and a half. No pick for either of us, but an interesting game. What was your lean on this game? What was the pick in Vicks picks where you do pick all games? Oh, the Cardinals only because I thought the line was a little off. I know I understand why it's off because obviously Kyle Murray's been kind of banged up

the shoulders not running as much as he has been, but I still think that's not a great line, so I always move for the line value. I took the Cardinals at home. Yeah, I'm with you there, too. I almost made it. I considered it as part of my package of five picks here. It does feel a little bit off. It feels like a little over-inflated or just maybe a little down on the Cardinals, given the way that they've played the last couple of weeks, but a lot of that's got to do with Kyler's shoulder injury and the fact that it hasn't cost him any time. Got to feel like he is getting healthier and healthier as the days go on. The reason why I stayed away from it is that if you drew up a defense that could really disrupt

Kyler Murray even when he's healthy, it would look an awful lot like the Rams defense. It would certainly include someone like Aaron Donald, someone who can get pressure up the middle. And we've seen teams start to contain him, start to basically force him to beat them with his arm and not with his legs. And this is the sort of team I think that is equipped to do that and contain Kyla Murray. So that is the reason why I backed off it. I still lean Cardinals, but not enough to make it one of my five picks. The last game in the late window on Sunday is one where both of us have a pick and we're actually going head to head in this one, Vic Packers,

minus eight and a half at home against the Eagles. 46 and a half is the over-under. I am on the favorite. The Packers, you are on the dog, the Eagles. I will let you take this one first. Why do you like the Eagles in this one? Because I'm a sick puppy. I mean, I don't know why.

I mean, the Eagles obviously have been very disappointing. And Carson Lance, I just can. I still can't get over how bad he's been, how huge drop-off has been. But I did see some signs of life in the defense last week. I think there is some talent in that team still. I still think the Packers is a little overrated. I mean, obviously, are a good team,

but I thought the number is a little big. I thought the Eagles going to hang tough, and the defense should be able to keep that game close, I think. And Carson-O-Wa-Len is making it lucky. He throws a ball around so much and doesn't know where it's going, but if you get lucky twice, hit someone deep and you got your business. So I think it'll be a close game.

Yeah, you know, I'm just, I just don't have fear of that Philadelphia offense, and that's what it comes down to for me. I don't think that I agree with you that this Philadelphia defense has shown some signs of life. They did a pretty good job keeping Seattle in check, even though it was a game that Seattle basically controlled. I mean, take that Hail Mary out of the equation late. That was a two-score game for the balance of the game, and Seattle never really felt like they were challenged in it. But the defense did its job. I mean, you hold Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to 23 points. You can't be upset with the defense, with the way the defense played.

So I will give them credit for that, but I just, we've seen nothing. We have seen absolutely nothing from this Eagles offense really all season. And I know they've had their injuries, right? Dallas Goddard has missed time. Zach Gertz has missed time. Miles Sanders has missed time. Jalen Rager has missed time.

I mean, basically everyone who they would count on at some point has missed multiple games. And it's not easy for any team. They also have had plenty of offensive line injuries. They are getting a little healthier in the skill positions with Zach Ertz being activated this week. We know Miles Sanders came back a couple of weeks ago. Same goes for Dallas Goddard, and he has looked quite good over the last couple of weeks. But still, it's like a bunch of mismatched pieces. They just can't put everything together.

And the drop-off in Carson Wentz's play, injuries or no, has been significant. Meanwhile, on the other side, you just have the most disrespected 9-and-2 team. I feel like that's ever existed. I mean, the Packers are 8 and 3. The Packers just keep rolling. They keep putting up points after points after points. and they too have had some injuries. They now are this fully formed team, really for the first time all season.

Devante Adams missed time early. Then Alan Lazzard went out the core muscle injury. They really didn't develop Robert Tunyon until about week five, week six. And we know what Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams can be in the backfield. We're seeing this offense after having played very well early in the season, finally get all of its parts back together too. So for me, this is just a case of the very clearly better team getting a. fair line. I don't think this is, you know, a small or an unfair line. I don't think this should be,

you know, 10 or 10 and a half or anything like that. I think eight and a half is a fair number, but I just am very comfortable betting on the obvious better team, the obvious better quarterback, playing at home. Everything for me lines up for a Packers blowout victory. So I will take the Packers, backdoors open on the eight and a half. You can run on their defense, but I think the Packers are the way to go here. Let's move on to our night games. We actually have four prime time evening-ish games this week. Sunday night is Chiefs and Broncos. The Chiefs are favored by 14. Over Under is 51. Neither of us is picking that. I'll jump ahead to Tuesday where we have Ravens and Cowboys. No line yet because of all the uncertainty with the Ravens. Neither

of us picking that game. Monday night starts off with the Steelers against the Washington footballs. Steelers are eight and a half point favorites. 44 is the over under there. No line on that game. or no pick on that game, excuse me. And then finally, the originally scheduled Monday night game is Bills at 49ers. Bills are one and a half point favorites. 48 is the over under. I do have a pick on this game. I'm going to hold it close to the vest for a second.

I want to know, even though you don't have a pick, what's your lean in Bill's Niners? I went with the Bills. I think they're the better team. I think the Niners, I think are getting a little too much credit. I mean, obviously, there was a nice win for them, but I'm not sure they're all the way back quite yet. I think also people forget this game is not at home. They're playing in Arizona. I think it's also a small factor.

So I think Josh Allen's matured over the year. I think they've gotten better. His years gone out. Defense has gotten a little better. So for me, it was a case of a better team. All right, Vic, you are a very smart man because that is exactly where I am going for my fifth and final pick. Give me the Buffalo Bills minus one and a half.

All the credit in the world to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers for what they were able to do last week beating a very good Rams team with a whole lot to play for a defense that can really cause a lot of teams trouble. And we saw basically the 49ers, not in full bloom, but in what they want to do, getting the ball in a remit. Roim Moster's hand 16 times, getting Debo Samuel involved in interesting ways, ultimately ending up with 11 catches for 113 yards. But I just think that it was almost a smoke and mirrors type of game for the 49ers.

And this Bill's team is just built differently than what the Rams are. And I think that the bills are just a different brand of offense to try and slow down with the way that they have played this season. And while it was nice for the 49ers to get Rahim Moster back, wasn't very efficient. And efficiency has always been his calling card since he emerged for this team last season. 16 carries 43 yards.

Bill's defense is a lot easier to run on than the Rams is, but it wasn't necessarily the greatest performance that we saw from them. Nick Mullins is still going to be a big mark against what this 49ers team can do offensively, really a hindrance on what they want to do. So I like the bills. This is a spot where at one and a half, all you basically got to do is when to cover. And in those instances, I feel comfortable trusting a team when we know they have, A, the better quarterback pretty comfortably, and B, just the better team overall.

So I will round things out with the Buffalo Bills. Your five picks to wrap things up here. You've got the dolphins. They are 11.5 point favorites at home against the Bengals. The Vikings, 10 point favorites at home against the J. Jaguars, the Raiders, eight-point favorites in New York or New Jersey to take on the Jets, the Browns, five-and-a-half-point dogs in Nashville, taking on the Titans and the Eagles, eight-and-a-half-point underdogs in Green Bay, taking on the Packers.

I've got the Bears, three-point favorites at home against the Lions, joining you on the Raiders. I am also joining you on the Browns, going heads up with you on the Packers' Eagles game and rounded things out with the Bills, one-and-a-half-point favorites in Arizona, taking on the San Francisco 49ers. Finally, our upset picks, you already said yours, but Browns over Titans, just give us a little recap. Why do you like the Browns to not just stay within five and a half but win this one outright? I like their offensive will run the ball against the Titans.

I think Miles Garrett is a big addition back on defense. I think it's not a great spot for the Titans. All fair things, which is part of the reason why I am joining you on that five and a half point train. I will take the Falcons for the reasons that I said, I almost pick them as. one of my five. I think that if they make New Orleans have to change their offense on the fly, that they're not necessarily ready to do that. And do they turn to James Winston? If that happens to, I realize I am assuming I'm right and jumping leaps and bounds ahead of where we are as we

record this episode. But do they have to? Can they do that on the fly? It just feels like the sort of game where things could get away from the Saints, where they've strayed a little bit too much from what their actual strengths are. And they are maybe a little bit drunk on the fact that they played, you know, a fine but not great Falcons team and sprung Tays and Hill on them a week, two weeks ago, and then a Broncos team that was, you know, basically just making sure no one got hurt and then they got out of there.

So I think things could look very different for the Saints this week against the Falcons. We know this show looks different every week and we are happy that you tune in with us every single week where you're going to call that an episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. If you are not getting athletic subscriber,

today is the last day. in Theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod. Get yourself a $1 per month subscription before that deal goes away. For Derek Van Riper and Vic Tafer, I am Michael Beller. We'll be back with you next week. Until then, thanks for listening and enjoy all of the Week 13 action. This was The Athletic Football Show.