The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 13 Monday Hangover — Cowboys check-in, Geno Smith’s future, Deshaun Watson’s return, Baker Mayfield’s release and more

Episode Date: December 6, 2022

Robert Mays and Mike Sando wrap up a busy Week 13 with the Monday Hangover. They check in on the Cowboys and Mike McCarthy following their big win on SNF before examining Geno Smith’s future in Seattle. They also talk about Deshaun Watson’s return, Baker Mayfield’s release and Atlanta’s QB situation.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube1:09 Cowboys & Mike McCarthy17:25 Seahawks & Geno Smith’s future30:57 Deshaun Watson’s return39:04 What is the QB future in Atlanta?45:18 Panthers release Baker Mayfield Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's the Athletic Zone, Mike Sando. Mike, how are you doing, man? I am doing well. How are you?

I'm doing good. Week 13 into December now. It is 4.30 p.m. in Chicago. It is pitch black outside. Oh, yeah. Which I'm not a huge fan of. But that's the point in the calendar that we've reached. We've reached a point in the calendar where the Monday Hangover might be changing formats.

a little bit as we get down the stretch here. I'm going to talk more big picture conversations about these teams in general. And then I think as we get closer to the playoffs, there'll be more playoff-centric conversations. But we're going to be digging into four more games today. We're going to talk about the Falcons and their quarterback situation a little bit later. Sean Watson's return, chat about the Seahawks and kind of their shifting fortunes in the NFC West with Jimmy Garoppolo's injury and where that might leave them.

But I want to start with the Sunday night game from last night. the Cowboys put up 54 points on the Colts, which is a shocking number when you consider how the first three quarters of that game went. But a good day for Dallas in a bunch of different ways. They beat up the Colts. This further solidify themselves as one of the better teams in the league. One of the other contenders in the NFC who loses their quarterback for the rest of the season. I mean, this is just kind of one of those days where if you're going to bed last night and you're Mike McCarthy or you're a Cowboys fan,

you've got to feel pretty good about where everything stands. You absolutely do. And I think McCarthy has distinguished himself a little bit here. You know, I think that's part of this. I think there's a steadiness in Dak Prescott, right? Just a professional approach. There's sort of some uncowboy-like things, right? It's always kind of been a chaotic place, but it feels pretty good right now.

And then the fundamentals of football, the oldest fundamentals in football are, you know, running the ball, playing defense, right, and having a quarterback who can win two minutes. Well, that's kind of what the Cowboys are. They're sort of, their fundamentals are a little bit more solid, certainly than they were a couple years ago, and you can just feel it. I've kind of had to step back and recalibrate how I've thought about Mike McCarthy over the last month and a half or so. And really, since Dak Prescott came back. So since Dak Prescott came back, the Cowboys are second in the NFL and EPA for play on offense and fourth in the NFL and EPA to play on defense. That's, there aren't that many teams.

that are doing that on both sides of the ball. Like the Bengals have been really, really good, the Eagles have been really, really good. The bills have been really, really good. But Dallas is right there with anybody. And this is a guy who on the first day of training camp this year, Mike, the first day, had to answer questions about his job security. Yeah. Like, think about how crazy that is.

I mean, that we very rarely see that where it's so out in the open. His team went to the playoffs last year. And I understand, I've been very harsh on Mike McCarthy in the past. I thought it was an uninspired hire when they made it. I thought that his first season with Mike Nolan as a defensive coordinator was drastically underwhelming, thought that the way last season ended, made those questions about his viability as the Cowboys coach, legitimate ones. Because when you've got Sean Payton sitting there and you've got a roster that really does have a lot of talent,

I can understand why people would be disappointed about the results that Mike McCarthy had gotten so far. And coming into the season, I was not shy about expressing my concerns and doubts about what this Dallas team could accomplish. I thought that they were worse than they were last season, roster-wise, after losing Amari Cooper, after losing Randy Gregory. And so I was like, all right, why would they be better? And I think that we've seen it on a few different levels.

The quarterback is playing better than he did last season, right? Like, that's huge. What he has been within this offense is really important. He's moving around more. We can get into some of the specifics. I think that's pillar one. Two, the offense is better constructed. year than it was last year.

You know, the amount of under center, the amount of play action on early down. So we've talked about this a million times in this show. The easy buttons they pushed under Cooper Rush, they've continued to do that with Dak Prescott. Their top five in the NFL in play action rate on early downs. That's not what this team used to be. When you combine that with the way that they're running the ball and the way that

Dak is playing, the offense is really, really good. And the defense has sustained success while not getting as many turnovers or relying on them as much the season as they did last season. I know they had a bunch yesterday. So I'm looking at this. like, all right, Mike McCarthy's job as the CEO type head coach of a team like this is to keep everything on the tracks, to hire the right coordinators, to put the right people in place, and get his team ready to go every single week and then make good in-game decisions.

The clock management has been a little iffy in moments to think back to that Green Bay game, but right now Dallas is ninth in the amount of EPA that they've generated on four down decisions this year. Like Mike McCarthy is not actively screwing this up, and the people in place from the personnel department to the coordinators to the players on the field seem like the right people. And he is shepherding this thing in a way that I didn't necessarily believe he could do coming into this season. I think he deserves credit for that. And you wondered, Robert, we always used to joke on the football GM podcast, what does he do? Because he was, you know, how does he impact in the games? And I think to get respect as a coach, you have to show that you can

impact the games. So I was thinking about this today. And I was thinking, you know, part of coaching is having a plan to win the games based on your personnel and following it. Right. And sometimes you're going to criticize a coach for, I wish they would play a different way. But the thing that he has been steadfast in from the beginning, and he really said this assertively early in the year was, I said from day one, we're a defensive team, and we're going to play to that. And so if you take a look, you know, I do that cook index, remember where we look and see how often is your team passing on early downs in the first 28 minutes of the game, which is kind of before two minute offense of the end of the half, and before usually the score is so skewed that we're running or passing.

because of game conditions. So if you go back to 2020 when McCarthy took over and in the games that DAC started, they were a top 10 team in the Cook Index. They were passing 56% of the time. You go to 2021 and they slipped back a little bit, 53.5%. They were 13th. 13th most pass heavy, okay? With when Dac played, DEC started.

This year with Dax starting, they're at 49.4%. They're 23rd. they're right around the 49ers. And I think that is an impact of, that is Mike McCarthy's vision for this team expressed out loud and in very aggressive language. I'm the head coach, this is how we're playing. He's kind of said it that way.

And then they have followed it. And it does play to who they are. And I think we're all wondering, right, that's when you get in these talks about do they need another receiver, what's the extra gear that they have. but just for taking care of most of the games that you play each week, they have a way to win the games, and they can do it, and they're doing it. Yeah, the levers they're pulling offensively, I love it.

You know, the tempo that they're using, again, the play action that they're using all the different wrinkles that they have in the run game, some of the stuff that Tyler Smith was doing yesterday on the move, just even like this way, I thought was interesting. Tyler Smith played nine snaps at left guard last night, right? And when I saw it happen in real time, I was like, why is Pete, I rewatched the game this morning. I was like, why is Jason Peters playing left tackle? And then I was looking it up and John Moshoda was tweeting about it, our Cowboys writer.

And Peters played left tackle a little bit to get them ready potentially for when Tyrone Smith gets back. So Smith gets live game reps at left guard, which is a really smart thought. It's like, all right, if you're going to put this guy back here who is a potential Hall of Fame caliber left tackle, you're going to bump that guy inside, let's get him some live game reps doing it. Just something small and thoughtful like that. And when you look at a CEO type coach like that, and you ask, what does he do? do we do that with Mike Tomlin, right? I mean, it's, I feel like we would give other guys or be quicker to other guys more credit when their team is playing like this, even if they don't necessarily oversee a side of the ball, then we've been to give Mike McCarthy.

And I think that's because of a lot of our preconceived notions about Mike McCarthy. And I am right at the forefront of that. And that's why I'm trying to check myself a little bit here. Yeah, I think I can see it from two ways. Number one, I think we feel that about Dallas anyway, that the owners, he's out talking and the owner makes it hard to coach the team there right i mean it's just uh everyone knows the buck stops with jerry and he's going to talk after the games and so i think that further undermined um uh the head coach and made the job a tougher the other thing is you know unlike

mike tomlin who was one year i believe as a defensive coordinator uh mike mccarthy's chops in the league were really established as a caller i mean i remember i was on the seahawks beat when he was hired by Green Bay and Matt Hasselbeck was on the team and he pulled me aside and he goes, this McCarthy guy is unbelievable. One of the best coaches I've ever had. He's going to do a great job. He was known for playing. He was known for calling the plays. So I think when you have that reputation of being a caller and then you stop doing it, it's conspicuous. I think what you said off the top, though, about having the right people is critical to all of this because I think Dan Quinn is a very process-oriented person who's not in it for himself, who's not pulling leverage behind

the scenes and making it about him. He's not dividing the team when the offense has a bad game. We've all seen defensive coordinators like that. We've seen those guys, you know, be testy and saying things on the sideline or in a Greg Williams type of way or a Buddy Ryan

type of way. That's not Dan Quinn. Dan Quinn, all he's done is gone out and found ways to call defenses better and changed the way that he did it before and evolved. And so we haven't been hearing his agent put stuff out about how he's going to get a head coaching job or that he's going to take over the Cowboys or any of that. I mean, I think everybody's

just done a pretty good job in a place where it's hard to do that where there's a lot of distractions and the owner, like I said, is always talking. Everyone's kind of stayed in their lane pretty well. I agree. And when that's the situation, you don't know how to parse credit when there's like an opacity to that, it can be hard to figure out, like, who deserves the credit. And I think this can even extend to the offense because I would love to like sit down with Kellanmore and Mike McCarthy with like put 10 beers each in both of them and just pure honesty about like, all right, how did you guys arrive at this place? Like, has Kellan gotten more control over what the structure of the offense looks like?

Did you guys have a conversation when Cooper was the quarterback about, all right, we're playing this way. Maybe if we dropped DAC into this version of the offense, this would be our best chance to succeed. I would love to know how we got here because I'd love to know how to parse out the credit. And the same thing goes for the personnel decisions and then the application of the personnel. I think that Will McLeigh and the personnel department of the Dallas Cowboys has done a very, very good job of assembling talent through the draft over the last five or so years. You know, going back to that DAC draft, when you think about all of the value they've created

from the players that they've drafted in-house, like, I'm looking at it right now. Okay. Here are guys that are currently like real contributors for the Cowboys that were drafted since 2016. Okay, Dak Prescott, Anthony Brown, Noah Brown, Jordan Lewis, Dalton, Schultz, and Doran's Armstrong were both fourth round picks in 2018. They are real pieces for this team right now. Michael Gallup was a third round pick. Go to 2019. Tony Pollard was a fourth round pick.

Donovan Wilson was a sixth round pick who's really doing stuff for them right now. Connor McGovern was a third round pick. He's a contributor. 2020, you get C.D. Lamb in the first round. Trayvon Diggs in the second round. Tyler Beautish has had a nice season for them at center as a fourth round pick. 2021, obviously they get Micah Persons. Guys further down that draft, not as big time of contributors compared to other seasons

past. But then look at this season. Tyler Smith has come in and been a starting caliber left tackle for them from day one, especially in the run game. He's been like borderline dominant. Sam Williams has been a really good per play pass rush for them in the second round. Jake Ferguson has really helped shape what they can do personnel-wise on offense. He's a second tight end.

Duran Bland, who's a fifth round pick, has come in for them when they've needed him to. He had a big game last. night. Yeah. I mean, just this happens for them consistently. So whether it's the personnel department going out and scouting the right players or the correct application of those players by the coaching staff, ultimately it doesn't

matter, right? The ecosystem that they've created is complimentary with the staff and the personnel department. They're getting the most out of these guys. When guys go to Dallas right now, they're becoming the best versions of themselves. And that is the sign of a good organization. and that kind of feels like what they are right now. And you can contrast that to my real pessimism about them coming into the season.

So this isn't something where I've been drinking the Kool-Aid this entire time. Like, I've had to change my tune about this over the last three months. And they've played to their strengths, no doubt about it. I think that one of the criticisms or concerns that we've had about them is how do the Cowboys handle success. And it's a great problem to have. You know, everybody should have that problem. But we'll see how they do because that was a resounding victory. but so far so good.

It seemed like they handled it good and we'll see how it goes the rest of the way. But the state of the NFC, I think as such that there's a bigger opening when there's been in the past, then we may see them finally, you know, push a little bit. I think so too. I mean, you think about, again,

why is this version different? And to me, it starts with what they can do on both sides of the ball and the state of their offense. Just some numbers just looking into it right now. Deck this season, okay, just overall, and you need this includes a terrible week one performance. It's fifth an EPA per dropback.

Okay? The only guys ahead of him are Patrick Mahomes, Tua, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow. Those guys are rightfully the centerpiece along with J-1 Hertz of the MVP conversation. And DAC as a quarterback in their passing offense has been as effective as most of those guys, especially since he got back. The ways he's moving outside of the pocket, how he feels more mobile and his ability to be a playmaker is, I think, much more pronounced this year than it was last year when he didn't look 100% healthy. That's been a huge part of this.

and just other elements of how he plays the position. I still don't understand why teams, last night is not the best example, but overall this season, why teams are intent on blitzing Dak Prescott as much as they do. He's been blitz at the ninth highest rate in the league again this season. Okay, it's 30.7% of his dropbacks. Yeah, and that's been rising for him too. It's been going up every year. And so he's currently third in EPA per dropback against the Blitz, okay,

while being blitz of the ninth highest rate in the league. Last season, he was top 10 in Blitz rate against. I think it was still ninth. And he was top 10 in EPA per dropback against the Blitz. It petered out in the second half of the season after he was one of the most blitzed quarterbacks in the league over the first half of the season. But I'm watching it happen again this year. It's like, am I not seeing something?

Like typically guys that are this good against it, teams stop blitzing them. You know, your burrows, your Matthew Stafford's last year. But teams continue to do it to DAC. And his ability to burn teams when they do, the way he can just kind of play quarterback and out of the shotgun and the tempo stuff that he can do and how we can dictate the game and plus what he can do on the move as a playmaker now, this is the best version of Dak Prescott I think I've ever seen.

And I think that does change where they're standing is in any NFC and especially in an NFC where now the Niners, there's some cracks in the foundation, obviously, without Garapolo, and there are no other really elite teams that I think you have to contend with in that conference right now. Yeah, he's interesting here. I'm just kind of, some of the things you said got me looking at his numbers year over year. And like I said, the blitz rate against him is higher than

than it has been. His interception rates up a lot too. Do you see it? It is. He's a 3.3% and it has not been that. And by the way, against the blitz, he has five touchdowns, no interception. So it's not happening like people are blitzing them. Is there something going on with those? I don't know if that's necessarily the case. I think that he's just been a little bit more loose and aggressive this year than he was at times last season. And I honestly think that throwing that pick and a couple that he has thrown, you know, first half against the Giants wasn't great. He threw a couple against Green Bay. I would rather see a more aggressive and assertive version of Dak Prescott that

throws the occasional interception than that fine-tuned in the box, you know, precision, let me operate from the shotgun quarterback that we had seen over the last couple years. Because I think the upside to him being a more playmaking version of himself is worth whatever downside you're going to get with a couple of these hiccups a game. Yeah. It's just interesting. His career is evolving. I'm just looking at some of these other numbers on him, like the scrambling EPA is way down.

Some of these other things, the running for first downs are way down. Some of the interceptions are up. He hasn't completed a single pass of 30 plus air yard. There's just some interesting conjures. Maybe he hasn't played enough, but he's kind of interesting to me. As someone who's been so steady, there's just a few little bubbles in here that I don't fully understand. And maybe they didn't mean nothing. You know, the numbers sometimes can just lead you.

nowhere, but it's interesting and it's working for them. All right, let's talk about another team that is firmly in the NFC playoff picture and kind of where they sit in their division and how that plays into maybe where the Cowboys are. The Seahawks beat the Rams 27 to 23 yesterday. I went back and rewatch this game. It was a little bit different than I thought it was going to be, and my takeaways were a little different than I thought they were going to be. But when you look at that game yesterday and you think about the Niners losing Garapolo

and where the Seahawks are, do you feel comfortable about this iteration of the Seahawks? Docs, potentially closing the gap with San Francisco in that division over the next five weeks. Yeah, not overly. You know, I think the 49ers are a tough matchup for them anyway, and I think the 49ers might beat them without Garoppolo. You know, it's interesting when they played Garoppolo, at least in the past, they've done okay with him. I just, you know, I think Seattle has done a remarkable job this year, has some really good

young players, but they have some really bad defensive games. against the run. I mean, the Rams rushed for 170 yards. I mean, it's not like the Rams running game. And EPA per rush yesterday with the Rams, despite what they've been all season. It felt like the CX were going to lose that game. I mean, they had to make some plays to win the game. And I felt like there, I felt a few weeks ago on them, like when they played the Bucks, I thought they were going to beat the Bucks because they were playing so fast defensively. And they had shored up some of that stuff against the run.

But we see periodically, and I think what's happened with them, you know, to Pete Carroll's credit to a odd degree, they've tried to evolve that defense and incorporate some of the Fangio stuff in there with a little bit of the different fronts that are a little bit more forgiving against the run, right? You're going to try to be a better pass defense and you might give up something against the run.

Well, Pete's philosophy throughout his whole career was let's just stop the run. Every tenth of a yard allowed, I want that down, and we'll earn the right to rush the pass or the old way football has always been played, which isn't necessarily terrible. they were going to evolve this thing this year. And I think with a lot of their young players,

it seems like that's been a had guys thinking a little bit. And they have some games where their front against the run can just be completely vulnerable. They lost the Raider game. They're giving up a 60 or 70-yard touchdown running overtime right up the middle. Like that can't happen. They should have won that game going away. So I don't really trust where they're at. I think when they play the 49ers,

four-niners will run the ball on them at this rate. And I could see the 49ers defense holding Seattle to 17 or 20 and having it be a real close game. So we'll see where it goes for them. But I don't know. If you watch them, and I usually do, I live in that market. I watch them every week. Usually I have them on a second or third TV during the games just to watch it. And it just feels a little tenuous sometimes lately, even though I think they've had a great year for them.

Yeah, I think a lot of that is fair. And to me, it's kind of trying to hold two or three things simultaneously. And one, there are just elements of the roster. We're like, they're just young. You know, like, if Lucas gets beat for a sack by Leonard Floyd in the red zone yesterday. And it's just like, you know, that's going to happen. You know, like he's a rookie third round pick. Even if he's played better than you expected him to and he's a building block for them moving forward, like they're still young.

And on defense, it's the same way. You know, they just don't have a ton of high level talent defensively. It's going to take multiple years to build that thing. And you're going to have moments like yesterday where a Rams team that can't run the ball is running the ball. against you. You don't feel great about what the defense is going to be week in and week out over the rest of the year, even if they have accrued some building blocks for moving

forward of the next few years for their future. You still have some young players on offense, especially along the offensive line. But you look at the five throws a game that Gino makes, and then the past catching talent that they have, and I talk myself into what happens if they catch you flush during a week.

Because he's making like four or five throws every single game that are like, holy shit throws. Like the one he made to DK down the right side line, the touchdown to Mechalf at the end of the game, like he's still playing at a really high level. And when you have a quarterback playing at that level, even if they're imperfections on the rest of the roster, and even if you're really young in other elements of the roster, I still feel like their best game is dangerous because of the level of the quarterback

play that they could potentially get week in and week out. I think you're right. little worried too with the injuries at running back they lost Rashad Penny now. Yeah, the Kenneth Walker is banged up and it seems like they can't get a break at that position. But here's what I was thinking when you were talking. They are set up to use a top five pick next year on the defense. I mean, ever we all thought it was going to be for quarterback. What if they resign Gino to a reasonable deal?

Because he's making those throws. The team rallies around him. He's tough. He looks good to me. Like, what if you, what if they said this, season. Because if you go back to 2012 when they started to turn the corner and got Russell Wilson, they lost in the playoffs to Atlanta. And the next year, they went and got Cliff Averill and Michael Bennett. And they had a pass rush suddenly. And the world changed overnight. They had

added some of those Bobby Wagner pieces. And they have a few of those young guys now that you're looking at Tereke Wollen. You know, some of those, there's a couple guys there that may turn into really good players. What if they got a top five pick, stud, defensive lineman? And then another in the second round or something and had Gino and just maybe they draft somebody or maybe they maybe they developed Drew Locke. Maybe their plan is, you know what? We'll just keep working on Drew Locke. Gino proved if you stick with it and mature. He'll be a talented guy someday if we have to go to him. I think that really could be their plan now as opposed to, oh, we got to trade up and we got to get a quarterback. We got to take one top five. I don't know. If they don't fall in love with one, we may be seeing

Gino for a little bit. What do you think is the most likely outcome for the Gino Smith contract situation next spring? I think it's a shorter-term deal for not obviously top of the market money, but gives him a good guarantee so he comes out ahead on what he might get if he was franchised. But I think that number is... You think that's just a good faith offer as opposed to franchising him? It's just like making... You know, we're going to do this because we think you'd just...

deserve it. Like, we're going to reward you for the season that you had, and we feel like the franchise tag is kind of sticking it to you a little bit versus franchising him. Well, no. I mean, I think to not do the franchise tag, he would have to be amenable to that that he have a deal to. And I have no idea where his head's at on that. You know, he may think, you know what, I'm pushing this thing. I have no idea where he's coming from. So, it's easy for me to say what compromises should be made. But when I looked at it, so if you look at the bottom of the, if you look at the top of the low paid guys, it's Baker-Mayfield at about 15 million a year, okay? If you look at the bottom of the high-paid guys, it's Tom Brady at 25, and there's not

like anything in between. So is there a number for Gino that's in between that or towards the bottom of the 25 number that takes you below the franchise tag? And yet, shoot, he's set for life and rewarded. And he's clearly your guy for a couple years. in a place where he's loved, where he's in the locker room, as opposed to trying to go to the franchise tag, and now he's at $31 million, and now he can't do a long-term deal. It's lower than $31 million,

and he misses four games and has a bad month, and now you're like, shoot, right? Is that best for anybody? It seems like to me there could be something in between where you could have it both ways. I'll affirm him as a starter, but don't get out of whack, because remember they got out of the Russell-Wilson thing

because they didn't want to be in that world. Yeah, so something along the lines of where he gets maybe 25 million guaranteed and you have the cap number be a little bit more palatable in 2023. You split a signing bonus over two years and maybe you can get out of it after a year. So you're not franchising him, but you're giving him a similar amount of money. I think that makes sense. I always in my mind just said that franchising him makes the most sense to me. You buy yourself time. He gets rewarded.

It's $31 million guaranteed. But you're right in that it might cut off some pathways a little bit. later on if he's already at that number. Depends what he wants and how he plays and how far they go and all of that. But that's what I'd be looking to do and I'd be talking to him now. I mean, I can remember I do Seahawks pregame radio each week. And it was about a month into the season when they were asking me about do I think Gino's real. And I said, the fundamentals are all there.

Like the things he's doing with the accuracy and everything at the throws, those are real throws that he's doing every week and he's still doing them like you were saying. So, you know, I don't know. what are you worried about, you know, other than paying too much and doing a bad deal? Yeah, I think it's just locking yourself into anything long term when you've only seen him do it for 12 games. Yeah. I mean, he's playing on an extremely high level, and I would want this guy around. But when you've only seen 12 games of it after a decade in the league, I think it's reasonable to wonder if this is going to be able to continue.

But I think he absolutely deserves a shot to be their starter again next season. And I would pay him real starting quarterback money to. get that second look at him. That's where I stand on it. And I'm looking at the rest of my program and I'm showing them this is how we do it. This is what you get, this is what we reward here. Somebody who does this and is in it for the team and gets better and plays well when called upon. That's what we're building our program on, right?

Yeah, I think that's totally fair. And that's kind of why I mean, like do you feel like you're by franchising him, it's kind of an FU when he's played pretty well? But the franchise tag for quarterback is $30 million. If I'm going to get an FU. with $30 million guaranteed. Like, you can give me the finger all day. Well, it effectively sets his APY at that, right? And so you don't usually go lower after that.

Now, I think there, I don't know what the market is for him outside of Seattle. It just takes one team. I just, I feel like this is one of those where don't screw this up, you know, because this is the best fit for him and them. I don't think he's as good of a fit going to some other locker room and starting over. I think that what he's got here works well. And it works well with the coordinator and Pete Carroll. this is the team that believed in him

and he got his chance and they went with it. Yeah, the AAV for quarterbacks right now is so interesting because so you have these guys who are on their most recent extensions that were they're kind of peering out where it's golf and Wentz are both at like 33 million. Ryan Tanna Hill is at about 30 million because he signed that three-year extension with Tennessee. You know, you have Kirk Cousins at 35. Part of me thinks that like $30 million to franchise,

you know, Smith is what's fair. for the way that he's played. I mean, when you look at these numbers, it's kind of hard to come to any other conclusion. Like, that would pay him as about the 12th or 13th highest paid quarterback in the NFL after some of these numbers get a race next year. Like, Wents isn't going to make that. Golf probably isn't going to make that.

And based on how he's played this season, I think that that is a totally fair place to land. If you're Gino's people, if you're the Ciox. I think that's absolutely fine. Yeah. Yeah. It would be fascinating one to see you'd think there's goodwill, you know. Exactly, exactly.

So by the way, how absurd is it that we're talking about this thing here where the Gino-Smith-led Seahawks are a playoff team? Can they catch the Brock Purdy quarterbacked Niners? Did Jimmy Garapolo's season-ending foot injury derail the Niners Super Bowl chances? And the Seahawks, we were a little bit down. on them because they beat a or they barely beat a John Wolford led Rams team that's picking in the top five. Like let's go back to July and have these conversations and try to get in a time machine and tell ourselves back then that this is what we'd be looking at after week 13.

Yeah, it is, it is crazy. It is, you never, it's the league. It really is unbelievable. It really is. And I think the Seahawks also didn't know, you know, they like, you know, Smith, but I think they, they're a part of them thought it was going to be Drew Locke emerging this. year too. I mean, Drew Locke gets COVID in preseason. Wasn't that what it was? He missed a game. Or did he get injured or something? He missed a game in preseason and it sort of opened the door for

Gino. I think you could make an argument that no team over the last decade or so has benefited more from the practice of cobbling together their quarterback room and saying the best guy will win out and that'll put us in a good spot on the Seattle Seahawks. They did it twice. They did it in 2012 with Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn, and then they did it again in 2022 with Gino Smith and Drew Locke, and they've gotten borderline elite to elite quarterback play out of both of those situations, over extended stretches of time. Absolutely.

And by the way, they won a playoff game against the Super Bowl team champion Saints has a seven and nine team, right? I mean, I think what we've learned here sometimes is, you know, your program really matters. I think Pete Carroll has a program. And obviously, you have to have a good. quarterback. I mean, you can't just have a program. And you have to have good enough players on defense and all of those things. But I think you can't lose the program for the individual. And I think

that's the lesson of this whole situation with the way it played down with Russell Wilson. The program was bigger and better than that. And here they are. All right, let's move on here. We'll talk about another quarterback to Sean Watson returns yesterday for the Browns. We're going to talk about this from what happened on the field yesterday and what that means from a team building perspective for the Cleveland Browns. There are so many different layers to this conversation. If you guys want to go back and listen to the conversation I had with K1KKLer last week on our week 13 preview show about how we talk about Deshaun Watson moving forward

and where this conversation sits, I encourage you to do that. But on a football level, he was not good yesterday. Deshawn Watson was dead last in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks in the NFL on Sunday. And there are two things that I think are important piece of content. around that. One, he played against the worst team in the NFL yesterday. And two, it's not as if this offense isn't set up for quarterback success. Jacoby Percette has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this season. So in terms of his play, it'd be hard for that first game back to be more disappointing on a football level than it was for Deshawn Watson yesterday.

And finally, their defense and special teams rally to win the game. Yeah, they went going away. They needed that because if he had come in and played that bad and they lost because of it, I mean, I think it's a more of a crisis. They could have easily lost. If their defense didn't do that, they could have easily lost to the Texans. And, you know, I have no doubt in Deshaun Watson's talent. I have no doubt in even if the scheme fit or the new system, all that, I have no doubt that the coach is there and Kevin Stefanski from a peer football sense can get him to be a productive quarterback in the offense. I think that's not a huge concern long term. He hasn't played in a long time. So the rust and all of that and the timing and game speed, I mean, shoot, we've seen guys come out of the gates in week one looking rusty when they practice in training camp. So I think that stuff will work itself

out over time. What I'm not sure about is the team rallying around him. And if he plays great, maybe it doesn't matter, but we've just got done talking about teams like the 49ers where the respect for Jimmy Garoppolo is palpable, where guys have tears in their eyes after the game when he's injured, because they respect so much the way he has kept his mouth shut, done his job, handled his business, practiced on a side field, all of those things without having any agenda and just being there for the team. Or Gino Smith, who just toiled in the shadows,

kept his head up, played for low contracts, and then when he was ready, he was there, and that team rallies around him. Do you rally around Deshaun Watson and what he represents as a staff, as a team? I got no idea. I'm not in the locker room. I don't know.

Maybe all those guys just love him. But I just, the whole thing just doesn't feel good to me. It hasn't felt good to me. I don't know if it's going to feel good to me. I don't know if it can be faked. I don't know if other people feel the same way. I think with most of these types of things where someone has an incident or something off the field

and then they come back, whether you like it or not, the life just goes on. And it is play. And then a few weeks later, no one's really talking about it. This is still really early. It's his first game back. But do the Browns rally behind us? Sean Watson in the same way.

I don't know. In all the conversations we've had about this over the last six months, over the last year, over the last 18 months, really since the last time he played. And in all the conversations we've had about the Brown's decision to trade for Deshawn Watson, I think that they've gotten the amount of criticism that they deserve in making that decision and the way that they went about it

and the way that other teams in the NFL went about it. And a lot of the doubt and the negative feelings and just the overall critical eye taken to that decision were in the decision to go after Deshaun Watson and what that represented. I don't think we've really spent a lot of time, rightfully so, because it wasn't the most important thing, thinking about what it would look like if on the football side of this, they had to work through some real adversity. Like if this didn't work out in a football sense, what that would mean. Because the Browns gave up a ton to go get Deshawn Watson. him an unprecedented contract to go get to Sean Watson.

And we didn't really talk about this at all when the suspension came down because, again, it wasn't that top of mind. The way that the suspension was structured ultimately is a hindrance to the way that Browns can build a football team. Because if he had been suspended for the entire season, his contract would toll. And in 2023, he would have been making a million dollars again as a base salary with like 8 million in signing bonus and carried a $9 million cap hit, the same way he did this year, which is why the Browns have $32 million in cap space.

Next season, Deshawn Watson has a $55 million cap hit. And that's because the contract didn't toll. We're just on the same structure or the same schedule we were on. That $55 million cap hit carries for the rest of his contract. If you're going to get paid like that, you need to play like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And we haven't really spent a lot of time or energy or focus on this because, again, it was not a priority. But now with him playing again and that cap hit and that contract kind of waiting around the corner,

he has to start playing like one of the best players in the league for the Browns to even get the most out of a justifiably pan decision on other levels. Right. And I just don't think we've thought much about that. But when you watch him play like that yesterday and you think about what he needs to do for them to get value lot of a terrible move that they made, the gears start turning a little bit. You think how great he has to play just to make it work from a football standpoint without all of the other stuff. That's what we're talking about. And I think we've just kind of assumed when you're not playing, you just plug that part of the equation in as if that's going to happen.

Yes. Until it doesn't. And look, one game is one game. He hasn't played in a long time. And I know from going to Brown's camp and talking to some people there that I know that they were very impressed with how he played and his football mind and the whole thing, his ability to absorb it from a football standpoint. So I don't think that talent is gone. I do think that he's going to obviously have better days than this. I just, I don't know if he can play well enough to justify the contract anyway. I mean, could anybody?

And then number two, all those other boxes that get checked around a guy who is that guy in your organization, I don't know that you can check him with him. And, you know, there just hasn't been that public contrition or self-reflection. There has been more of a, my attorney told me not to talk, which can come off as an arrogance or avoiding it. It just doesn't feel like that hump has been cleared yet. It feels to me like that awkwardness is still there, and I don't know how it goes away.

Does it just go away with time? A lot of things do. I don't know. Him playing the way that he had yesterday certainly isn't going to make that awkwardness any less palpable than it is right now. So we have a lot of time and a lot of opportunities to talk about and think about this moving forward,

but I feel like it was important to at least address it, considering this was his first game back in two years. And by the way, we know the reasons that he missed two full seasons in two full years of football. And whatever consequences come from that, they didn't just happen. We didn't just stumble upon them. All right.

Let's get to our last game here. The Steelers beat the Falcons 19 to 16. We spent a lot of time, I think, on last week's show, or two weeks ago, talking about the Steelers, Kenny Pickett, again, not the greatest game for them offensively. There's a lot for them to be working on and thinking about this offseason as they move into year two under Kenny Pickett. I wanted to visit the Falcons quarterback situation here because it does seem like we might have reached the end of the road this year with Marcus Mariotta as their starter.

He came in as a bridge quarterback and a bridge quarterback contract. Desmond Ritter is kind of waiting in the wings potentially for a look near the end of the season. It does feel like their playoff chances are dwindling a little bit. So do you think that we've kind of, the Marcus Mariotas time as a starter in Atlanta is up? should it be up and kind of where do the Falcons go from here in your mind? I do, yeah. I've been kind of discouraged by their pass offense all season watching them, you know, just from an accuracy standpoint down the field.

I understand when you're in the, you know, you're in the mix, you're in the race for the playoffs. I do think I'm sure he brings some veteran leadership and the ability to run the offense. And they've had probably more success than any of us thought they would this year. So I tip my cap to them from that standpoint. But I do feel like, you know, the percentages are so small right now. We know what type of team they have. I think they really need in these final games to find out what they have in Desmond Ritter

because they obviously drafted him with some thought that he could help them and start to maybe become a guy for them. When are you going to get a chance to get that information when you don't have something at stake? That's too big. I'm like they're going to make a huge playoff run. So I definitely would put him in. I was looking at other quarterbacks that were drafted outside. the first round who made the first, let me get this, the first six starts of their career from like a week 12 on. Just kind of that late season plan, because it's always been a thing

that teams talk about, hey, you know, down the stretch, if we can get them five or six games. And so the last 20 years or so, there's about, there's a dozen guys. So here's who they are. Trent Edwards, Jimmy Closson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Keith Knoll, John Skelton, Ryan Lindy, Quincy Carter, Jalen Hertz, there's one, Jalen Hertz, Charlie Fry, T.J. Yates, Nick Foles, another one in Drew Locke. So those are some guys that are drafted round two to round seven that played in their rookie year, made their first starts kind of down the stretch late in a season, probably for teams that had issues, right? and I think it's a good thing to do. And in Jalen Hurts case, they were able to make an evaluation in Philadelphia. Yeah, I think that's important because we're looking at a situation now where not only is Atlanta likely out of the playoff race in the NFC, barring some miracle. If you look at the way that the draft order currently stands, they would pick a tenth.

So I think the Falcons want to have an understanding of what Desmond Ritter is potentially heading into the offseason because if they're in, a position to draft a quarterback and they don't think Desmond Ritter is the guy, I think it's important for them to make sure they can pull the trigger on somebody because eventually they're going to need a solution at that position. And this might be the year when their roster is as torn down as it is and they're eating all this dead money and they're clearly in a rebuilding phase. This might be their best chance to get one. So I think that has to be where they are right now.

It's just being the information gathering process here over the next month and a half, see what you got and allow that to inform the decision you have to. to make it in the spring. And hopefully, really for them, big picture, you know, they have a buy. Obviously, Tampa has the Monday night game. So, you know, the picture could change in ways that make it even easier for them to do. And that's, that's what I would do if I thought he was anywhere near ready to get out there. You want to have him go out there and fail. But if you, if you, obviously, they're going to be a running team, uh, anyway, they can take some pressure off them and let them get out there and see what they got if they don't know. Yeah, I, my gut feeling is that we will

see Desmondarder sooner rather than later for Atlanta. I think that that will be the case. And you look at it. Marcus Mario de facto did fine. Their passing offense was actually just in terms of efficiency a lot better than we might have expected it to be coming into the season. Marcus Marioada is 19th in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks. It's not great, but it's not terrible.

But then you look at some other underlying numbers. Marcus Marioita is number one in the NFL and off target percentage, according to true media, 17.7% of his threat. That's ahead of Justin Fields. That's ahead of Zach Wilson, Taylor Heineke, P.J. Walker, Davis Mills, Cooper Rush, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco. I mean, these are guys that have been benched this season for the most part or guys that are in terrible situations and are very young quarterbacks. So it's not surprising at all that they think, you know what? Now it might be the time.

And let's see what we can do with somebody else. And let's allow us to kind of figure out and gather some string about what we want to be moving forward. So I expect that to happen. And we'll see what goes down. Because I think that their quarterback situation, what they do now, after spending the last couple off seasons, trying to build up the infrastructure around the quarterback with receiving options, resigning Jake Matthews, all of the ways that they've tried to get this place ready for the guy. It's time to figure out or start figuring out who that guy is going to be. Yep. When else are you going to do it?

You don't want to do it out of the gates next year. You want to have him part of the mix. You want to have some feel for him. And then you can make a decision this off season. and like we're talking about with some of these header teams, an informed decision. Shoot, who knows, you could bring back Marioada and have Ritter and go with Ritter and switch the order.

Or you could decide, you know what? We need to get another guy in here who can start games for us. So you won't know that as well unless you can see Ritter and let them play. They can save a lot of money if they move on from Marioada after the season. And I think that if they do pull the plug, more than likely, we would see the end of the Marioada era in Atlanta. But this becomes a question of, do you feel as, do you feel comfortable rolling with Ritter next season,

like the same way that the Eagles rolled with Hertz, and you wouldn't know that until you get a real look at him here down the stretch. One more thing to hit before we move on. Speaking of NFC South quarterbacks, the Panthers have released Baker Mayfield. That news came down a little bit earlier today. According to a couple different reports, Baker Mayfield asked for his release before the Panthers acquiesced to the request.

I don't really know how much that matters. You know, if you're a quarterback worth keeping it, it doesn't matter. If you're asking for your release, you're probably going to be on the roster. The big question now becomes, is he worth chasing for the 49ers, considering that the whole they have at quarterback? I would personally be surprised if that happened. Brock Purdy has been within the entire season, the entire off season. He looks pretty good in spot duty on Sunday against the Dolphins. So I would be surprised that the Niners made this decision.

I don't know how you feel about it. I agree. I think I wouldn't do it. You know, and maybe I'm just a little bit overly swears. by the, you know, by the feelings they have for Jimmy Garapolo there. But could you get someone who's, you probably could? But, you know, he's going to be with the utter end of that spectrum of how you handle yourself and being a pro and being able to do it.

So, you know, for me, it would have to be some sort of thing where he's on the practice squad for evaluation and you humble him and we're doing it this way and then see. But you would have to really have loved him coming out. Like, that's the thing you don't know. is did, you know, did Kyle Shanahan love him coming out? Does he know him from, you know, some off-season thing or something like that? That would have to come into play because otherwise it just, to me,

I think they just go with what they got and guys in their system and they know it and see how it goes. And then, you know, if they have to make a decision, they have to make a decision. Because who knows, the way their luck is, shoot, you know, maybe they'll have to go to another one sometime here in a couple weeks. this is going to be a big moment for Baker Mayfield because he's probably a backup in the league now based on what this season has looked like, right? I mean, by any objective measure, he is not a starting quarterback in the NFL right now. If he's a backup, being a backup in the NFL requires a certain mindset, affect, personality. Like the guys that hang around in those spots hang around for a reason and you got to want them around. and I think that Baker Mayfield is going to have to make a decision about whether he wants to be one of those guys if he's going to prolong his NFL career.

I think right now he does not return Kailen Kater's call for the QB2 podcast. I think he says that you have the wrong number. This is not, I don't know how you got it. I can get you in touch with one of those guys. I don't think he's there yet. But, man, you look around the league and look at what a Geno Smith was able to do after a tough start to his career. Yep. the talent is there for these guys. Now, Mayfield does have some limitations, but the talent is

usually there for these guys if they can ride it out and have the right approach and work and learn to do it. And I'm not saying I would have had all the answers at age 22 with a million dollars either or lots of millions. So it's probably easier said than done to get the maturity you need to get to where you want to be. If you look at the history of highly drafted quarterbacks and whether they stick around as backups for a very long time, it's kind of of a mixed bag. You know, like, Blaine Gabbard is the best example. Blaine Gabbard flamed out in Jacksonville.

Blaine Gabbard is still in the NFL. I guess 12 years after Blaine Gabbard's career started. He's still in the NFL. Christian Potter is drafted that year. Christian Potter is not. Jake Locker is not. Jake Locker was an interesting situation. I think he walked away kind of for personal reasons.

But Brandon Whedon didn't really stick along for that long as a backup, but he was a little bit older. E.J. Manuel didn't have a very long career. He was out of the league by 2017. Johnny Malmosell was obviously an entirely different situation. Bortals was a backup for a couple years bounced around. But some of these guys just don't stick around as backups. They do not prolong their career in that way.

And we'll have to wait and see what happens with Baker Mayfield and which way he goes. You've got to love it. You got to love the grind because a lot of these guys are set for life. And you just don't have to do it. You don't have to go and look in the mirror and grind your way back up with no guarantees. And you may get cut. And it's humbling. You know, it's just not for everybody.

And you find out the guys who really are willing to do it. and there's a reason they succeed because they're willing to do it. All right. Mike Sando, that's all we got. Thank you very much. Thank you. Enjoyed it. All right, guys, that's all we got for today.

We will be back on Wednesday. Really excited about that. We're going to do a show with Charles McDonald from Yahoo. So please come back and check that out. Obviously, on Wednesday afternoon, we will have prospects to pros with Andy Staples and Dane Brugler. If you have not listened to prospects to pros, now is the time, man.

College football season wrapping up. Talking about these guys with the draft, Anthony Richardson declared today. We're going to have more of that news. No, coming down over the next two weeks. So make sure to check out Andy and Dane's work if you have not. It's a great show. Mike will be back on Thursday with the NFL with football GM with him and Randy Mueller,

which comes out every single Thursday morning. So please go check that out if you haven't. Another great show on the network on the feed. I will be back tomorrow with Charles. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. the athletic football show.