The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 13 recap — Bengals beat Chiefs, Eagles dominate Titans, Jimmy G and Lamar injured, and more

Episode Date: December 5, 2022

We were excited about Week 13's Sunday slate all week, and it certainly delivered. From the Bengals' latest victory over the Chiefs to the Vikings squeaking out yet another victory, this one over the Jets, the marquee matchups lived up to the billing. Robert Mays and Nate Tice break it all down on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. The guys dig into those two games, injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson, the playoff picture in both conferences, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube2:39 Bengals-Chiefs21:15 Dolphins-49ers37:53 Jets-Vikings46:43 Eagles offense flies over Titans56:50 Lions offense dominates Jaguars67:51 NFC playoff picture75:13 AFC playoff picture82:15 Lamar Jackson injury Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me tonight. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing very well. I finally, some of my Black Friday purchases have started to trickle in.

Ooh. Yeah. I got some like Nike yoga sweatpants, which I'm very fired up about. I love Nike yoga line. Dad shit. But also got a Captain Insano T-shirt from AEW, which I am like beyond fired up. So if you want to know about who's someone in their early to mid-30s, just to look at my Black Friday attenery, some Burt's stuff as well. That has some dad shit.

But also, just an awesome, awesome day of Sunday. So I was very comfortable as I watched the slate of games, which was just a fantastic day. We got a lot of stuff to dig into some huge games. We knew that coming in. I mean, the Thursday preview, we couldn't even get to everything because of all the huge games. We're going to talk about the Jets and the Vikings a little bit later, talk about the Niners and the Dolphins. We didn't get into the Wickscale with A.J. Brown on Thursday. that was purposeful.

I didn't really want to open the wick can of worms with a certain quarterback going back to Houston and all of that. So that's why we didn't do it. We wanted to save the DJ Chark Wick scale for later in the discussion as well. Let's just say AJ Brown broke the wick scale today in what he did to the Titans. So we're going to talk about that a little bit, get into the lions and them just cruising on offense. But let's start with the main event of the day. And that is the Bengals and the Chiefs. And it's a funny game because I think a lot of the narrative coming out of this is that the Bengals kind of have the Chiefs number recently, right?

But when I watch that game, it's so funny that even though the end result is different, I just feel so much better about where the Bengals are right now, especially on offense. That's my biggest takeaway from this game is that this version of the Bengals now with Jamar back, with Burrow playing like this, and with the line playing the way that they're playing, I just feel. feel so much more confident about where this team is. So even though they beat the chiefs again, and that's going to be the conversation around it, this one just felt a little bit different to me in terms of where the Bengal ceiling is. And I know that's crazy because they went to the Super Bowl last year. I know. I know, but it's just so much more sustainable. And this is what I, we try to emphasize a lot. This is so much more sustainable. The opening drive, I tweeted it out. It just felt that way. Burrow hits a checkdown on third down. They run a ball four times out of the shock.

on including a designed burrow run for the touchdown, which is also another thing. They're running him way more than they did last year. I think it's like they've already, they ran him 11 times on design runs this year. They ran them 10 times all last year, something of that sort. Oh, I'm sorry, 21 times this year, 11 all of last year, which is ridiculous, a change of their whole dynamic of what their offense is. Even without design runs, his legs were a huge factor in this game. Huge.

Scambles, extending plays, getting up and out. I mean, that's just been a big part of that sustainability and then kind of finding more chunks on offense. He's, he's at eight rushes this year of 10 or more yards. He had one all of last year. Like, he is, I know. And it's everything's more in control, like him in the pocket, like again, on that opening drive, he's just on, he's finding the checkdown. He's hitting a dig over the middle. He's sitting Tyler Boyd over the middle.

He's progressing to Haydenhurst. Like they ran, I think it was like a first and 10 outside T. Higgins, outside Jamar Chase routes. If that was last year, Burrow would be throwing a back shoulder throw on it. But instead, the Chiefs are playing so over the top of it, he just progresses calmly and hits Hurst on like a little like ins. It's a slot route, but they run an out route. So inside out route, they run on it, but it gets Hearst on it. And then it's just, again, the design runs that where he scores.

And then their run game is so good. This offense has just really, really been fun. And it's, you know, what's really fun about it is we talk about the tendency breakers that Zach Taylor is showing. Zach Taylor is showing, sorry. like he does a play action shot play under center, like on the second drive, which Boy, it's beautiful. Yeah, second to three under center, you're going like, oh, run.

Like this is the Bengals runtime and they're going play action out of it. But it's so funny when it comes into, you know, nut crunching time, they still have these guys named Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. And they have a guy named Joe Burrow that knows how to get it to him. And they just can run these plays and win one-on-ones and clutch moments. And that's what makes this offense so, so scary. both the T. Higgins big slant completions, right? The one for the touchdown and then the one to seal the game.

Yep. The play immediately preceding both of those, Chase makes a big play. So the touchdown is one of those plays where Broo escapes out and up to his right and finds Chase up the right sideline. It was only like a seven or eight yard gain, but it was second and 15. So they chunk half of that off and then on third down, he hits Higgins for the slant for the touchdown. And then that third and five play in the fourth quarter, when they just spit the ball out to chase, that shouldn't happen. There's no way he should be able to get a first down on that play.

Two guys have him dead to rights. And we talked about this a lot last year. And you brought it up and it was a great point. He never gets tackled immediately. Never. Every single time he is hidden space, he's getting, how often guys have to twist him to the ground because he's so strong? and then he's getting two or three more every single time. So that plays a perfect example of just him creating more than what's there.

I mean, him being back into this offense is just a reminder of how explosive he can be, but also just how he adds to that sustainability that we're talking about. Because it's easy completions that he's turning into something else. We knew that, though, right? This is all stuff that was around last year to an extent. Jamar Chase's impact, what kind of player T. Higgins is. It's the checkdowns and him, all the place to P. Ryan, I mean, what kind of damage he's done as a receiver over the last few weeks, even with mixing out, has been really notable.

I want to say he has like seven receiving first downs over the last three weeks. And he worked his ass off for that one late in the game where it was, it was just, Burrow was staying patient in the pocket. I think he would have bailed earlier in his career last year when he would like maybe extend the play outside. He's hanging in the pocket and then scrambling as opposed to getting into hanging the pocket for a split second and then get into an extension mode. It's like just a little bit of different ways using his legs. I also think the past protection is better. And that's part of the reason that that's happening is that he's trusting what's in front of him. The play that really jumps out, speaking of P. Rind's impact, there was that second and one, that two-minute drive that eventually, I believe the two-minute drive is the one that got, yeah, it got stuffed.

That was the Taylor Enderon that got stuff by Carlos Sondup, which is a bummer, because the two-minute drive was beautiful. So they're moving down the field, and that was, it was a return route to Chase where he's the number one receiver on the right side. He fakes the over and then runs a return route to his right. P. Ryan Stonewall, the blitz around that play, they brought pressure. And Burrow had all day, that's a long developing route because he's got to take it across and them all the way back outside. And that's just stuff that's available to them that really wasn't last year. These chunk plays that aren't just go balls down the sideline.

And that's really cool to see. And then you combine that with P. Ryan and the Lions impact in the running game. Yeah. It's this explosive. It's a combo of explosive and successful. And like, I don't know, they can tap into anything. That's what's funny about those slant flat plays, the big one, the third one to, third down to clinch the game and the touchdown is last year they ran those plays too much. And now they can go to it and crunch time as opposed to running it 15 times throughout the game.

And then all of a sudden, once a really big play, the defense is like, all right, we should have played 15 times. Just, you know, let's get on it. So it's funny how the plays that we used to complain about are the ones that are like, no, those are their money plays now because they're balancing. it gets so much better. And what's funny is like even P. Ryan last year when he would play over Mixing, like even in the Super Bowl, people are like, why is Piron in there and not mixing on that big throw down, that big foot down? It's because Piron's so freaking good in pass pro. And they trust him more than mixing. So now they're making him more rather than he's in the ball game.

Oh, yeah, we know plays is going to be. He's going to be blocking in there. It's like now he's a valuable receiver. They're giving them touches. And the run game's awesome. Like they're the gun run game's so good. Like they, what was it? Oh, all the runs displayed.

They had trap. They had pinpole, the QB run stuff. Like, they're just diversifying that game. And they're just beating a shit out of them with Duo. They're running Duo. Yes. Yeah. There was, I tweeted out a clip of it.

Do it was an O line play for people. Like, that is when you have a better O line than the line, that you can get the push. So that's saying something. Which is crazy to think about when you think, can you consider where they were at last year on the offensive line? But I tweeted out a clip of it. I don't know why Dana was playing three technique. tackle even it might have been the two minute they were in their nickel personnel whatever but they had a backup defensive end as a three technique. Kappa and Collins his cleat marks are still in that turf like that's how fast and how hard they blew him off the ball and they were doing that pretty consistently in this game so I looked up the numbers since week five

the Bengals are number one in the NFL in rush success rate from the gun and number two in EPA per rush from the gun think about that reality contrast with where this team was for the first month of this season and where this team was in the running game last season. It just couldn't be more different. It's night and day. And that's what we're talking about when you say, why is this more sustainable and easier to get behind than some of the success they were having last year?

That's just another example of this. So I want to talk about one more thing on the offense before we get to what happened on the defensive side of the ball. Joe Burrow is playing as well as anybody right now. Since week five, when they what week five is when they really made this shift okay the raven's game was the first game where they really came became essentially shotgun heavy offense shotguns only offense yeah really over 90 percent of emerge right so since week five he is fourth an EPA per

drop back in the NFL only players ahead of him are patrick mohomes Tua deck prescott and jover is fourth okay and you feel it and it's even beyond the results the way he's playing right now I think this is the best he's ever played because you're seeing the escapeability, the decision-making, the accuracy, and he's not taking the sacks that he was taking before. So the overall efficiency exists because the negative plays have started to become fewer and further between. And that makes them truly terrifying when you consider how good the rest of the roster is, how their plan on offense is crystallized. This is the version of who they wanted to be offensively coming into this season. They're getting at what they're getting out of their personnel is what they hope to get out of their personnel when they built this team and when you have that type of supporting cast a scheme that is much much better than it was a year ago and a quarterback playing even better than he was when he was a top five central quarterback a top five Jason quarterback last year. Yes.

And he's playing better. I mean, and that is that says a lot. And I think that if you're a Bengals fan, this is the type of not even result, but how you. you're getting to that result. The process is better. Yes. How many times do you think he got hit today? Man, four or five?

Once. That's incredible. Once. It felt like that. I think their pressure rate, I looked it up. They pressured him about a quarter of his dropbacks, and it felt like that in this game. He had a lot of time to operate.

It's awesome. That's what it is. You're talking about, I think, how you set it up right there is the results were good last year, especially in the playoff run and the end of the season. and we were kind of like apprehensive on some of the stuff. It's like, well, they're kind of getting there, but it's kind of like few and far between and it looks really good. And then there's kind of doldrums and, you know, some naders with this offense.

And that's the thing is that the process on all the plays, not just the, that's why I tweeted that opening drive, because it's not only the scheme, it's just that he's playing, he's taking the calculated shots, but also knows when to play it's safe. There's the T. Higgins go jump ball that they almost caught like near the end of the game. And it was like a toe tap away from T. Higgins dunking on a guy. Yeah. They can still do that whenever they have to take one on once. It's it's a very, very hard offensive stop, no matter what metric you look at since they've made that week five change. They're top five, top four, I think, in everything.

It's rushing, passing. There's six out of ten of their passes they were successful. Like, that's extremely sustainable on top of the explosive plays they can create. On defense. Oh, yeah. Game plan a little bit different, you know, than it was last year in the AFC championship game by the numbers I saw in true media. Sometimes it takes a little while for this to catch up in real time. It can be a little bit wonky, but I saw that they only dropped to eat five times in this game.

And one of them was that huge Joseph O'Sysack that led to a decision we can talk about from the Chiefs. I mean, that decision to kick the 55-yard field goal instead of going for it. I could go either way on it. But that was one of five plays. He was one of four on the plays where he actually threw the ball with one sack. But that really wasn't the central part of their game plan, the way that it was. in the AFC championship game. So what stuck out to you about the way they were playing today and why they gave the

chiefs and problems? It was an awesome punt. So they did give problems, but the chief still average 0.2 EPA per play today. They lead to the league in point one night. They're still damn good. If Kelsey doesn't fumble, they're still doing. Not to discredit what the Bengals are doing. It's important to bring up, though, because they were moving the ball.

There were two puns in this game. There were two punts. Each team punted one time in this game. This game was awesome. This game was awesome. So, but it was, this was a great punch, counter punch, counter punch between the chiefs and the Bengals. Bengals come out blitzing on third down. They put some five, they put some six times today on just third down or third and fourth down.

They convert out of fourth and four, I believe. Okay, second half. Yeah, second half, though, Mahomes got after him. So it was the third and seven, first third down to second half, hits MBS. Let's talk about that. He covers. After catching the snap, he runs backwards. He runs.

backwards after catching the snap. All he knows. That's exactly what it is. It is video game nonsense. He, they're in that cover zero look and he says, all I need to do is give myself enough time to get this ball off. And that's,

he does. He dropped up to 11 yards to let that thing rip and caught MBS down. That's where arm strength comes in when you could just, their feet are being planted throughout 40 something yards. It was hilarious. He might as well have turned around and sprinted backwards with back to the line of scrimmage. I know.

It was amazing. So they torch it, though. It was, so that was a seam dagger play, uh, seam dig, Sig. We just call it in the crisp offense, but it was really, really creative seam dagger. And so, but that's the thing is you never see the alert, which is the seam on that play, get hit unless it's pressure. And there's not a lot of QBs that can actually know to hit that. They're like, oh, no, I'm hitting this dagger. I'm going to wade in the pocket.

So the other time we've seen it recently is Matthew Stafford hitting Cooper Cup on it against the bucks in the playoffs last year. Yeah. And then we hit this one. So that was the one third and third down. Okay, the next third down was the Pichko touchdown in the red zone. It was like third and six and they run split zone, which is great against a pressure look. Boom. So it gets blocked up, splits touchdown.

The next one, a next third and ten was a Mahomes hits MVS on the deep sail route. And on that one, the Bengals brought five. So it's man pressure. Boom, sail route, great throw, great catch on that. So why that's all relevant. So that's blitz, blitz, blitz. they just get shredded third down third down third down then they go to third down one before that field goal decision they show bullets show the cover zero look and then drop eight it was just a great

counter counter punch because my home's got i would say he got fooled but he hesitated because he looked there's a guy who did get fooled was orlando brown that that that's what happened i mean him getting getting beat inside on that play that's what changes everything so it doesn't matter if mahomes didn't get totally got on that somebody did and it gave it changed the game to throw throwaways on those drop eights and force a sack. So they did it five times and that's three negative plays basically for. And then another one was a third and 20 completion. Like who cares?

So it's like, yeah, it's just, it was a great performance all around. But the thing is I still think the chief's offense was fantastic, but the Bengals should be credited for how well they played on both sides of the ball, which is what matters. What do you think about that decision to kick the 55 yard field goal instead of trying to go for it there? I hate it. 55 yarder. So if you miss it, the ball's at the 45.

Like, so if you don't get it, you know, I don't think. that field position matters as much. You know, that's that 35, 45 is like, you're giving the ball either way. Or should I say 38 and 45. So that's what I just didn't really like that. You got my homes. I know he was gimped up, but take a time out. I know you want to stop the clock, so you get all to that. But I think you go for it. You have the best player in the world at quarterback, and he's reading the game really well, and you've adjusted really well to what they're doing. I say push it. Buckner has been off this whole year. He's been banged up. And he's like at 70-something percent on 50 plus yard or so didn't really like it too much.

I thought I missed, I totally misjudged your tweet or like misread it. I thought you liked the fact that they kicked the field goal. So I was like trying to be nice. Okay. I also was not a fan of the decision. I hated it. I hated it.

No, no, no, no, I hated it. I'm so sorry. I totally misread that. Yeah. I think a few people did because people are like,

hey, Nate, they had Patrick Mahomes. It's like, yeah. Yeah, you made the MVP of the year so far. Yes. I think in that moment,

With Patrick Mahomes, you let him go to work there. Oh, okay. Okay, I'll make sure to reply to that later. Just to clarify for some people. The Kelsey Fumble is a great thing to bring up, obviously. That was after the McPherson field goal to make it 24 to 20. So at that point, the Chiefs are winning the game with 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter and Kelsey fumbles at midfield.

So bounces of the ball. You know, I mean, the Bengals deserve all the credit in the world. My takeaway is that I still. at it. I still feel very good about the chiefs and where they're at offensively. I just feel even better about the Bengals. That's saying something because after last week and after the way that they've played over the last few weeks, I think that our enthusiasm about them has been pretty clear. But this is one of those games where you watch the way that they're playing and think there's no reason they can't challenge anybody in the AFC playing like this. And that's pretty exciting

because, again, I feel better about them now that I did last year when they went to the Super Bowl. They're a better team on December 5th today or this season than they were on December 5th last year. And I don't think it's particularly close. Absolutely. I think, yeah, both sides of all, the defense got real hot at the end of the year. We always like that they can do some stuff, especially in passing downs. But what they're doing is more sustainable. And also just on this offense.

I just think that's the thing is this offense can hang with anyone because they are finding ways to beat you depending on the matchup. And it's not just go ball central and a couple designer plays. It's the first and second down playing so much better. And Burrow is playing so much. He's a better quarterback. Like he really is. He's always been so smart.

We all know that. But he is playing more consistently as a good quarterback right now. And it's, they've been awesome. I've really enjoyed this Bengals team, but I still think this Chief's team is awesome too. I think these are two of the best teams going at it, right? Today.

Just one more thing to mention. It's not like the Bengals played the cleanest game possible either. But Taliboy dropped a touchdown. That leads to a field of goals. It's a four point swing right there. and that Trent Taylor Jet Sweep handoff that gets blown up

on fourth and one. I mean, that's a seven point swing potentially. So they left some points on the field and still managed to beat the Chiefs. So a ton of credit

to where the Bengals are right now because they deserve it after the way they play today. All right. Let's get to our next one here. Dolphins, Niners.

Final score, obviously a little bit misleading. Niners run it up at the end with a couple turnovers, but a fantastic performance from San Francisco, especially on defense.

We can get to the Jimmy G impact on this later, but your biggest takeaway from watching what the Niners did today against Miami. So in wrestling, they have these things called Hope Spots, and it's where I kind of like the baby face,

you know, scrappy, good guy, like comes back and like hits a couple moves and then the heels, the bad guys, just overpower him at the end and just batter them.

And that's what this game kind of felt like. Every time the Dolphins kind of did some stuff, like the first play, Tua, and I had a great drive to start the fourth quarter. And it was just like, Okay, they got back up and then you just remember this, even with a backup quarterback playing in there, this 40-9 offense is just so explosive. I just thought that even with Jimmy G. going out and Mr. Brock going in, Brock Lobstar going in there, that it's, they're running the same exact place.

They're running choice routes. They're running the four strong stuff. The run game looks amazing. You watch Trent Williams cutting off guys in the backside. You watch Devo Samuel breaking three tackles on screens. You watch IU dominating. You watch Kittles Stonewalling. guys. You're like, oh, yeah, this team's got a lot of studs. And then if Brock can just do enough,

like he did in this game and make a couple hard throws, just like Jimmy G has done, it was, I don't know. I was actually not as like down when watching this game. I thought it was going just be a luck fest, but really rewatching it, it's like, no, that he made enough throws. And this offense was still cooking. Biggest throw he makes in that game, in my opinion, third and 10, 118 left in the second quarter. Dolphins are in another cover zero look. I believe they blitzed him on 43% of his dropbacks today, which, and that doesn't even include plays where they brought four that was an uncommon for that was part of like a cover zero uncommon for. I like that. I like that, though. Whatever it is. It's hard to predict four,

like a non-traditional four. I like that uncommon four. No, it was that serious. I wasn't beat up. So I'm sure there is an actual term for it, but I always forget it. So, I mean, they had a lot of unblocked guys coming off the edge today in those looks, even when they were bringing four players. So I think that the pressure was notable. But on that play, third and ten, it was Phillips coming unblocked off the left edge. And he just delivered a strike to Kittle over the middle of the field. And that series ends, that drive ends with the CMC touchdown with like four seconds left in the half,

where they had Kittling, IU clear out on that side. And he hits him in the flat, and it's a score. He had him on second down. It was actually a really nice throw. McCaffrey kind of dropped it. So Purdy made a bunch of big plays in this game. I mean, enough big plays in this game. I'm worried about the sustainability of it moving forward.

I think that, you know, you catch one day where you're playing a bad defense and, you know, you have all those playmakers. I am concerned about what this means for their outlook, but today I was impressed with the amount of plays that he was able to make. Yeah, it's going to be how much those other guys can do, like today they were doing it, but sometimes the coin doesn't flip your way. And he's kind of, Brock Perry is like a chaos quarterback. And I will give him credit. his arm strength, I think he can do enough with his arm strength. It's not like a popcorn ball where he throws it out there. And it's like, oh, God, look at that loop.

But it's, man, he is a chaos quarterback. And today it worked out. But you can just see the differences between him and Jimmy G. There's in the first drive, they motioned CMC out. And Jimmy G is a straight line quarterback mentally. He's going to take the easiest, the path, the least resistance on each play. So CMC just runs by the linebacker. And he's like, okay, throw to go ball.

Brock comes in. And they run same thing, put CMC on a little motion. He runs a go, still has a linebacker one-on-one. Brock's like, I'm going to read this play out. And so he's, he's, he's hanging in the pocket. He bails from the pocket and hits Debo, like, on an extended place. That's kind of the difference of these two. Debo is also wide open on that play.

Oh, yeah, yeah. Debo was wide open in this. Is that, you talk about that third and one where he rolled to the right? Yeah, yeah. Debo is wide open in the middle of the field. And he just decides not to throw it to him. But eventually the end result is fine, but Debo was wide open on that way. That's the difference of these two.

But then, I mean, they spam choice routes. So you can tell. They even did like the double choice routes with Debo and CMC, which I love. But like you can do that with an offense. Like last year, remember the Panthers started off hot, Sam Darnold? You're asking how much stock I still had in Sam Darnold. And I was like, I was like, I still have it. But I don't know if this is sustainable, but it's because they were spamming choice routes to CMC.

And that was their offense. It was awesome. They just weak side choice, just over and over. And today that touchdown included. It was angle routes, sit routes to CMC. They can still do that. And if the run of the game or the run game could do this, it's like, okay, they can do enough on offense because their defense is their defense, which is really, really, that's the strength of

this team. And it's more, I think this offense is going to be more run the ball with a smattering of explosive plays. And that's, I think, that's going to be the path for them going forward, I think. I love some of this stuff that you mentioned that play at the shuffle motion where Jimmy was still in and he hits him down the right sideline. Yeah. That and then on that, the two minute drive at the end of the half, they ran a little screen to McCaffrey

from the slot with Ebo in the backfield. that was just like another, just contentionally using him as a receiver and Wieser, like, he's the focus of the play. We knew it was going to be cool, but they do like three or four things a game where it's like, man, that's pretty fucking cool. So I still have severe doubts about a seven-th round rookie quarterback. Right. Mr. Irrel. Well, this is the problem is that if this was about making the playoffs and this was about, you know, can you get there? Of course.

I think he can keep this thing afloat for them to win the NFC West and make the playoffs. this team at full strength had a real chance to win the Super Bowl and I do think that not having Jimmy Garapolo materially changes those Super Bowl hopes. Even if you want to be optimistic about Brock Purdy

there's a very good chance this means that this team probably isn't a like a real real contender anymore. Oh yeah, I mean, you've got to be realistic. It's like it's fun. It's us. That is a departure because they absolutely were. I know. It really sucks.

And then you watch like, that's the thing is like, it's such a bummer because you're watching how these guys making plays. Like even the Debo run that iced the game, CMC's out lead blocking for him. And it's like, oh, the Swiss Army knife offense. This is awesome. And that's the thing. Now they're kind of capped. Even if he played well, if Purdy played well, you just have to be realistic about it.

I mean, you never know who gets hot, but you got to be realistic about it again. You mentioned the defense. We talked on Thursday about the impact that Bosa and Fred Warner would be have in this game. And then you just see the plays where they changed the game. I mean, both has the strip sack, obviously, but there was the one sack that he had on the stunt on third down, that torpedo to drive that was beautiful. It was like a little five-man pressure look where he came as a looper all the way around on the three-man side. And then he had one where they tried to chip him and then cut him with the back on a play action third one, neither of which worked. So he had a couple

game swinging sacks in this game. And then, you know, Warner does it from the start. I mean, that same drive, I think it was in the first quarter, where Tua misses Hill on that wheel RPO early in the game, because he missed a decent amount of throws early in this game. And then they try to get Sherfield vertical from an inside alignment on third down. And Warner just carries it all the way. Tip ball, PBU.

I mean, we saw the interception later, but even if you just look at the areas of the field that the dolphins could attack, in this game. They didn't even try to throw the ball over the middle for the most part. And I would love to see the All-22 angle on it. There's one play in the second half where he misses Tyreek high over the middle. I was just about that. Yeah. So I, that play as I rewatched it, all I'm hearing is you comparing him to Rudy Gobert because that's one of those plays where I can't totally see it from the TV angle. My assumption is that the depth that Warner is getting there and him getting that ball broken up earlier in the game trying to throw it in the exact same. spot. He's trying to get a little bit more air on that than he typically would have to. And that ball sales incomplete.

That's exactly. They showed the Spider-Cam version of it during the game. And I think it's Greenlaw was the other linebacker who also had five. Oh my fantastic place today. Dude just flies around. That Gisicki, fourth and two. Yeah. Incompletion, that should be complete.

The amount of grass he covers on that play, that play should be a first down. And instead it ices the game. They're heat seekers. And that's how they play. they added to their undersized heat-seeking linebackers. It's so great. That play that you brought up, I'm so glad he brought it up because that's exactly it. It was just like a Rudy Gobert.

Instead of taking a layup, you're shooting like a floater from five foot, my feet, and you kind of shoot it long because you hit the back of the rim because you kind of don't shoot all the way. But that's kind of what Warner and these linebackers do, and they push for it. And that's Warner got the tipped on the one. He leads all linebackers and PVUs. But that one is that he's pushing to where the dig will. get thrown, like, if that makes sense. So two was like throwing it early because he's like, oh, shoot, this happened to be before.

And that's where Greenlaw gets. It was just perfect. I'm glad, I'm glad he brought that up. But also like the interception, uh, Jimmy Orson. That, the, uh, that drive, that's the, uh, the Bosa stunt with the loop. Yeah. That's the next play. Okay.

After that, after that high throw to that where we think that we're, 25 yards to a, a, uh, sack and pot. But it's exactly what we're talking about. Thursday. It's like those two guys were the ones who can change the game. And on back to back plays, they torpedo a drive in what was a close game. Yep. And they, the ward interception was, it was they, this is the downside of choice. So this is why I'm talking about the 40-9ers could run choice over and over. This is the downside of choice. The eagle, the eagle, or the eagles, the dolphins try run it with Jeff Wilson and Eric Armstead gets pressure right away. And like, and he has one hand reaching for

Tua. Tua's hot, you know, because of the pressure. So he has to throw it early. He can't, Jeff Wilson because he feels Fred Warner coming from the inside. He's about to break inside on an angle. And he feels Fred Warner. He's like, oh, shit, I shouldn't be doing this. So he kind of stumbles. And too, it has to get rid of it. And so the ball misses and Jimmy Ward gets it. I'm curious what you think about this. On that play, Ward went in motion with someone, but then they played zone. And so I think that they misread what was what the actual structure of the defense looks like. Several times today, especially the slot players. at the snap of the ball, say they would start with outside leverage. Deonti made a great point about this in the summer, about depending on where the leverage is, is where the help is coming for the defenders. Right at the snap of the ball, like say the slot player would be on the outside, snap the ball, he'd jump inside. And so they were waiting until the snap to show the final look, which is what a lot of defenses do,

no shit, but there's a little subtly things because I think that's maybe how the Shanahan coaches teach that stuff, reading the slot leverage. So it's kind of another, I know what you know, what I know kind of plays from this defense. So I thought that was interesting. And also the dolphins ran their muddy play, which Seth Galena did a great breakdown a few weeks ago. The, it's unbelievable. You guys can see it in your mind. It's split zone.

It's the opening touchdown. It's the touchdown on first play. They hit that. The fourth and one, they run this play. And then the play after the fourth and one, the first and ten, they run this play again. They ran at least five times. And two, it hit the flat route, both the wheel and the switch seam and handed the ball off on this play. So they ran at least five times, but it's like, this place's got to get nerfed because you're running out one of the best defenses of the league and it's still just dominating.

It's such a good play. And they, no one runs it better than what they do. Jeff Wilson, you mentioned that obviously he slips on the interception. He had another play down the left sideline where they tried to get him on a vertical route. I mean, it was just kind of timing was off. He misjudged it. It was a little bit underthrown. That gets dropped incomplete.

And then you combine, you know, some of those miscues with two are just missing like four or five throw. in this game. I mean, the one that gets picked off. It's tipped by Tyree Kill is off. He skips one to Jalen Waddle on the first drive of the game. And tack that up to whatever you want. We mentioned the one overthrow. We think that Warner affects that play such that he's got to change the trajectory of it.

But he's geeked up. It's a huge game. I mean, this kind of stuff happens. I'm still bullish on the Dolphins offense moving forward. They just played a defense that is expertly kind of keyed up to beat them with three backup linemen in the game. But this is just one of those games where those four or five throws end up mattering in a huge way.

Yep, stylismic fights. And this is just, we talk about, oh, what's the toughest way or the best way to beat this dolphin's offense? And what the 40-9ers do is very rare because they have Fred Warner. Like,

they can get away with a lot of stuff because how good he is. Even the pressure you bring up with the Nick Bosa. Like, that was a 5-0 look with Fred Warner blitzing. Like, he's such a valuable play for them. But it was just a bad stylistic fight for the, for them, but they're still a really good offense.

They're going to be really, that money play is a money play for a reason. They've done it against every team this year. Two had the most throws of the season over 20 more yards. He was pushing the ball. He had hit him like a comeback throw and pressure. He can do enough. But it's just he, there's just those misses. When it's a tight game like this, those add up.

And that was just one of those games. I thought the Niners did a good job on that play of defending the rail. The depth that the corners were getting, I think that he couldn't push it over the top, but also didn't feel comfortable throwing those back shoulder. I think he only hit one of them to Hill. It was up the right sideline. And it was a really difficult completion. Like he had to put it on his back hip and Hill made a fantastic play.

But that's the only time in this game, I can remember him throwing that wheel. I don't think he threw it again. No, it didn't. Yeah, I know exactly the back shoulder one. I know exactly what you're talking about. Yeah, that's, yeah, that was it. The nice touchdown on the fourth quarter was great.

He had the post. Oh, it was beautiful. They got to follow twice. Yeah. They got Hufonga on the first one, and then they got Hufonga on that. It was digging in the post behind it. He just bites down and doesn't need to. I mean, that's, we talk about heat-seeking missile.

Sometimes you could take advantage of a heat-seeking missile. He sees red. He certainly does. He does. He's like, I got it. This is a big play for me. So boomer bust, got a safety right there. One more thing before we move on in this game just want to mention, J-Wan Waddle missed a chunk of this game with a lower body injury, I think ankle injury, something to monitor.

You know, obviously that has an impact on. what happened today, but definitely has an impact on things moving forward because I think a lot of the ways that teams can play against the dolphins defensively is rooted in being terrified, not only of Tyree Kilb, but of what Jay and Wael can do to you. So I don't think that influenced the Niners game plan, as much as it might influence other team's game plans that are more interested or more motivated to play man coverage, all that kind of stuff. So just one more thing to think about. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then get back with some Vikings Jets talk, one of the other big games from today.

Let's get the Jets Vikings here. Weird game. Just a very, very strange game. I think a couple things jump out, obviously, right? So the Vikings are 9 of 18 on third down in this game. Jets are 3 of 16 on third down in this game. So many third downs. The Jets outscore are outgained the Vikings by about 200 yards,

486 to 287, and come up empty, I think it was four times in the red zone without a touchdown. I mean, that, that's it. Like, that is enough to change the game when you go three of 16 on third down. The other team goes nine of 18 and you keep coming up empty in the red zone, including, you know, a couple, that one drive that ends with zero points near the end of the game where you get stuffed on the goal line. Yeah. And usually when you force an opposing team to 18 third downs, you're feeling pretty damn good about

how you performed all the day, even if they went nine for 18. But, man, like, even early Kirk Cousins was not good today. Like he, early on, he, they had open third downs. Like, they were running all these outbreakers and he was just sailing him. Like he, I don't know what was going on. What a Jefferson sticks out when he was working against sauce on the right side. He had him open and just throws it five yards over his head. Right before that, he throws one to Thielen.

And Thielen kind of like broke down on it. It was almost like a comeback as opposed to to an out. And he looks back. He sails it. Like her cousin sales it so bad. He was open. And The one kind of looks at his, you know, hands are on his hips. And even O'Connell gave him the double palms up, like, the fuck was that?

Like, he gave that to him. And it happened time and time again. He finally did hit one at the end. You know, the Jefferson touchdown was great, which was also a third and six in the fourth quarter. And it was the only snap, Soss Garner lined up on the offenses left the entire day. So I think it came out. I don't know if it came out of a timeout or what. And maybe the Jets went galaxy brain on it.

Like, oh, Jefferson's going to line up, you know, to our right. So it's put sauce over there. Only snap of it. But Jefferson, sadly, was to the defense's left, which is where Sauce usually aligns, and he just torches DJ Reed for a touchdown on an out route. So that was interesting, the only snap of the entire day. So, yeah, I don't know why. But also the Jets offense, they do some fun stuff.

The run game will always have a couple sweet runs. Corey Davis played a great game today. Of course, they have this guy named Garrett Wilson, who was just a yak monster. Like, oh, my God, that guy, he's chaos. as a receiver. But, you know, his route running is hit and miss, but it doesn't matter. Get the ball in his hands and good things will happen. But yeah, Mike White does enough.

He was slow early. It seemed like once they opened things up for him, he did a lot better as the game went along. I think part of the Red Zone struggles, I want to eject these Braxton Barrios plays into the sun. Oh my God. You know, like a screen to Braxton Barrios on one of those drives on the final drive, the one where they came up short on fourth and goal, it's a play to Braxton

Barrios. They run a jet sweep reverse to Braxton Barrios on second and eight from inside the 10. I mean, that a little too much Braxton Barrios in those moments, I think. And that obviously, in that last four... He's a pro bowl returner, man. You got to get a ball. Absolutely. So I mean, the Jets defense, I think, did play very well in this game. Up front, they had a couple big moments, a couple drive ending sacks, especially in the second half. I mean, they gave themselves a chance. And when you keep coming up empty in the red zone in these sorts of games, I mean, this is eventually the end result. Those are the coin flips. We talk about coin flips in the game.

That's what those are. Red zone performance is a coin flip. I thought, I was going to say, it was also like, you're talking about the Braxton Barrios stuff. It's just funny to think of because of like how much sources, how much resources they put into that position to manufacture all these touches for Barry. Yes. That's part of the problem is that if you're a team that needs Braxton Barrios because you have no other receivers, I can understand. like okay perfect example if you're the 2021 jets i can understand making braxton barrios a central part of your offense right you are no longer the 2021 jets and this is a game where corey davis

was back yep cori davis is back and garret wilson's going off even like tie johnson was doing well elijah more showing up again like he's making he's doing some stuff with the ball in his hands even if it's not a ton no i want to say also too is that i'm really curious to watch this game and see what they did or what the Vikings did with Jefferson, just out of curiosity's sake. Like how, because even numbers wise, nothing was like an outlier. They didn't line them up to the left a ton. They didn't wind up in slot. Just kind of all normal rates.

So I'm curious kind of like how they used that maybe against the Jets defense. The other thing too was my prediction of this game was that the Vikings would be in a lot of 12 and maybe 21. They were like below average 12 personnel and they were still fantastic performance out of it. And then like I kind of was frustrated. I was like, there's your, there's your offense right there. And another shout out is Quincy Williams had an awesome spear on T.J. Hawkinson today. He's a missile everywhere. This is just what stood out to me in this game because it was such a weird game.

It's more just like we got to cherry pick what's going on with the game because it was just so up and down for both teams. I know that Jefferson didn't have a huge stat line in this game. But you feel them. Seven catches and 11 targets for 45 yards. Not a big game for him. Long of 10 yards. Yeah. I mean, there was nothing over the top. No. But he still had some big moments.

and he drew a defensive holding on sauce that ended up getting him a first down that was big. The play he held on to that throw. Oh, my God. Where he drew the personal foul is an incredible catch. He snapped sauce off on that. And then he caught another one where Whitehead lit him up again on another third and two that he hung on to. And then obviously the touchdown. So I mean, there's still like, even in a game where he doesn't go off, there's still like four or five moments.

They're like, oh, shit. And then there was another one that was a third. third down, they lines him up in the slot. And Osborne was the number one receiver to the right. And Jefferson goes vertical from the slot. And he bends it outside just enough that sauce takes him vertical. And then Osborne, there's no one covering him on the hitch. So again, it's like the gravity of him combined with like four or five plays.

It's amazing that on a day where he gained 45 yards receiving, I'm still like, man, Justin Jefferson's so good. And also they ran a double pass for him and he just took it. Yes, even that play. He turned like sharp L. Like you talk about his body just being so like, you know, gumby. It's he ran like like vertical or horizontal to the line scrimmage and took like a sharp turn and got vertical and got like eight yards on it, which should have been a blown up play.

But no, I'm glad. Oh, that's such a great call on that Osborne hitch route because you can feel sauce. Sauce is more worried about Justin Jefferson. That's exactly exactly what it is. 100%. Where are the focus is of the deep. defense and the defensive players because they're taught all week. There's some scout guy wearing number 18 and they're every where's he lined up.

Okay, okay. We're in this coverage. What are you doing? Where are your eyes at? So he's the focus, not a KJ Osborne, but that's always nice when you have to compliment your pieces playing well. And I know that it's not the best game from Mike White. He's not playing against the shattered remains of the Chicago Bears defense like he was last week.

But I still feel like this offense functions better with him in there. The ceiling is higher with him in there. I mean, that fourth and 10 throw that he hit to Corey Davis, to keep them alive. The thing is a fucking missile. I mean, that's a beautiful throw. And, you know, tip ball interception in the beginning of the game and just a couple, again, bad breaks. And then they come up short in the red zone consistently.

I still think that this version of this team with him at quarterback and the guys they got on defense, get some guys back on the offensive line. You know, Phant played in this game. Max Mitchell played in this game. I still think that this team, especially with the Chargers losing today, will get into the AFC playoff picture a little bit later. Got to feel pretty good about their chances of making the playoffs. and then that drought and keeping the good vibes going, even if you lose this one. Absolutely. Their defense will keep them in every game.

And I think Mike White can make enough throws. And I think their run game's pretty good. Even with the banged up injuries, they do enough to, and they're creative enough on offense. Like, yes, it's a Shanahan descendant offense. But there's, there's some more, their own flavor, especially once again to get to the red zone. So they can do enough to hang with a lot of games. Less flavor.

Less, I want less on it with Braxton Berrios in the red zone. All right. It's time for you at my attention. Let's get to it. Gentlemen, you have my curiosity. Now you have my attention. All right, A.J. Brown and just the Eagles passing game in general, you have my attention. Holy shit.

Wow. Wow. How do you stop this? It's a picker poison offense. That's what I'm going to call it because, okay, real quick, before I know you, you're ready to gush. No, you do your thing because I know, I know that it's been a rough day for you. No, no, it's been good. Eagles fans been good with me.

So other than one person making a burner, just talk shit. The weakness of the Packers defense is stopping to run. And what did the Eagles completely exposed for a lot, a lot of yards last week? What's the weakness would you say of this Titans defense? I personally, I would say corner. Yes, of course. What got exposed today? The Titans' quarters.

This is a matchup. They will find the matchup each game. Stephen Ruiz does the microscope thing with Kyle Shanahan This is really this Eagles offense And they find the matchup And they're just going to pound away at it This is the best quarterbacking

Helps have clean pockets But best quarterbacking of Jalen Hertz I saw I've seen this season As far as taking checkdowns As far as throwing those matchups As far as throwing over the middle Hitting seam benders to Jack Stoll I can't say

Oh it's Dallas Goddard making a big play for him It's Jack Stoll, who's been fine, but he's taken with the defense gizm. They're finding some nice tweaks also a couple of weeks ago against the Colts was the Colts were running some spy stuff. And I was like, oh, okay, and kind of catching them a little bit. What was, this is what the Eagles adjustment to that has been, is they'll motion the runback, create a force strong. So one of the linebackers has to run with the back.

And then the spy, instead of being a whole player, he's focused on Hertz as a spy, instead of a coverage hole player, and the Eagles just run all these inbreakers. Because now all the corners have outside leverage with no help inside, Hertz hangs there and just hits these overs and crossers just over and over and over. Again, this Eagles offense has found every time someone presents it with a problem, they find a problem the next week or solve the problem the next week. And it's just freaking impossible to scheme against. And you got guys like AJ Brown just dunking on guys and Devante Smith dunking on guys.

And it's a really, really fun offense. this Titans defense is a bully, right? I got those big bodies. That's how they want to play. The Eagles spread the entire game out today. I would love to see some numbers on the width of their formations in this game. I mean, they stretch them horizontally to attack the middle of the field, like the way that you're talking about consistently.

I just looked it up right now because I was curious. 11 personnel in this game, so spreading things out a little bit. Hertz was 27 of 34 for 360. 60 yards and three touchdowns out of 11 personnel in this game. 35 11 personnel dropbacks, which torched them. Looking at this very quickly, the only guys with more today were Mike White, 50, and Justin Herbert. They were the only two guys with more 11 personnel dropbacks that Jalen Hertz had against the Titans, which that's not necessarily what you'd expect from this Eagles team.

They run a lot of 11 because they have all those receivers, but just throwing the ball as well as they did it as frequently as they did. Their best personnel grouping was 12 this year until God or got hurt. They found a new iteration of this offense. It's, yeah, man. Okay, so one the way, the other thing, sorry, I know I've Bogart of this. It's that hurts usually, the one weakness this year. I mean, just looking at numbers is the Eagles haven't been great passing a ball against the Blitz, and which has been kind of weird. You know, I think, oh, they get all these one-on-ones.

One of the things is because they don't, they're not very ambitious when they do. Right. They're just, they're screens. A lot of screens, a lot of really, really short throws. He was down near the bottom of the league in area arts per target against the Blitz for most of the season. And they weren't, their running backs weren't great in protection as well. That was another thing with it. So they weren't really trusting these guys to pick so.

Watch the Cardinals game. The Cardinals exposed it a little bit. But today, Titans run cover zero. And then Brown, that's where AJ Brown's second touchdown. There was a one-on-one against cover zero. So you blitz them, just take the easy answer. I'm going to take my one-on-one matchup and I'm going to poke at it, poke at it. And it's going to explode because we have good players that can make explosive plays.

Devante Smith's touchdown, another. They also, the first touchdown, Adrian Brown was an out and up. That was a one-on-one, essentially. And multiple double moves. Yeah, the touchdown was on an out and up where he just ran over Christian Fulton. He got that long pass interference penalty on another double move against Avery and then scored the last touchdown against Avery outside. So you talk about the Deals defense kind of, or offense being able to shape shift a little bit and just attack. whatever problem is presented to them.

I think part of that is A.J. Brown developing into a different sort of player than what we were used to getting out of A.J. Brown. We've talked about this a little bit. We talked about it after the Steelers game. But him being like an outside the numbers vertical receiver is just really weird to watch.

I didn't know. I didn't know what that was he could be that player. I did it at all. I thought he was a bully, not this type of like go ball merchant. So in from 2019 through 2021, okay, he had 15 deep perceptions outside the numbers on 40 targets, 40 through three seasons. Yeah. With the Titans. He has seven of those catches this season on 20 air yard throws outside the numbers.

So he's had half as many already through 13 weeks as he did in three seasons with the Titans. and you feel that. I mean, he's stacking guys vertically and late hands on go balls. I mean, just that one to Avery is like, that's like dominant vertical receiver stuff where you're just tracking the ball, late, late hands, making a play at the last second. And it's just not the type of guy we'd seen him be for the most part in Tennessee. And when you combine that with the physicality and what he can do after the catch and you still see some of that with the way they were throwing the ball over the middle of the field.

and then you just toss in Devante Smith and what he can do when Dallas Goddard gets back. They're really scary if they're going to play like this throwing the ball. That's it. And I really liked how Hertz played. And they ran the ball today. They average 2.8 yards a carry, including Hertz's runs. So it's like, okay, that is the true strength of this offense. It's like they can always just pound the rock on you in different looks, especially, you know, especially using Hertz's legs.

Hertz only had five runs today, and that was probably including a scramble or two. So, okay, that's usually what their easy button is. And the fact that the Titans were like, okay, beat us on the outside. They did. And it wasn't just that they spammed those throws over and over. That's why I want to emphasize how well Hertz play and just how in control. This is one of the best in control from the pocket. I felt Hertz play.

I think that, and that's something I've had. I've been holding reservations about this whole offense and with him. and if he can do this every game, I mean, there's not many teams that are going to be able hang with this offense and doesn't matter what the defense does because they're going to just rack up points on you. This is the same team that just went for like how many yards they rush against the Packers? Like an infinite amount. Yeah.

They could just get 10 yards of pop when they want it. So the fact that they can pick at whatever scab they want and now they're finding tweaks to what teams have presented, like again, that Colts example with the spy. and now they're hitting plays and adjusting to that. I mean, the Devante Smith touchdown was an empty play. They run the runoffback in motion, but because it was zone, the backside safety comes down on a dig, was a drive concept, which is a crosser inside dick, safety drives on it, okay, hurts, hangs in there, and hits the post late out of an empty pocket.

They're able to hit deep balls late out of an empty pocket, a five-man protection. The fact they can do the hard shit now, along with all the easy buttons, it's a really, really good offense. It's interesting that they threw 85% of their dropbacks today were out of 11 personnel. They play 11 personnel about 70% of the time. It's their second lowest design run rate of the season was today. Yeah. So it just, I mean, again, we knew that, right?

If you're going to play against this Titans team, why would you bang your head against the wall? No. They go out there and slinging around and this is when your playmakers play well. But I will say this isn't one of those games where you just have those guys who are just dunking on people. There's some of that. But I thought the Hertz played maybe the best game he's played this season today. There's a reason why you see the runnerback's getting all those catches. Like that,

that is just so simple. And I want to emphasize those simple checkdowns matter because it made the linebackers come up. And then he's hitting the stuff over the top of them. It made guys on the inside play sound as well as the corners that they could just expose. It was a very complete game from them. And that's why, yeah, I'm eating a little, I've eaten a little crow every week watching this Eagles offense. But now I'm like, no, this is just good because they're finding adjustments. to what I thought were being problems for them.

I still think Patrick Mahomes is the MVP. Oh, yeah. I'm going to stand by that. I think that if Jalen Hertz has a couple more games like this, if Joe Burrow keeps playing at this level, it becomes a more interesting conversation than it was to me over the first half of the season. Over the first eight, ten games, it's pretty obvious to me that I thought Mahomes was the best, was the MVP of the league when you consider supporting cast,

what's asked of him within that offense, and you combine it with, just eye-popping numbers in him being the most efficient quarterback in football. I run out of reasons that he shouldn't get it. J-1 Hurts has a few more games like this. And again, Joe Burrow keeps playing like this. It becomes a more interesting discussion as we get down the stretch. I think a good way to put it is second team all pro is very, very interesting to me. That's how I'm going to sum up.

But that's a good one. Yeah. When I thought it was just going to be Mahomes and Josh Allen, now it's, there's a few guys I'm willing to like talk about as opposed to just like, oh, that's fun to talk about how these guys are playing. Burrow, a great example, Josh Allen. Even Tua has played well. I know he missed a couple of games, but there's a lot of really interesting play at quarterback right now. And Hertz is, of course, it has to be considered, especially if he plays like this. All right.

Next one here. Detroit Lions offense. Yeah. You have my attention. Hell yeah. Just absolutely beat up on the Jaguars 40 to 14 today. About six yards of play, 400 yards of offense. They had 31 first downs in this game.

Jared Gough led all quarterbacks. an EPA per drop back today. Coming into the game, he was 13th, an EPA per drop back among quarterbacks. He's eighth now. That's how efficient they were on offense today. And this is not, I know the Jags, I know the Jags past defense is awful.

I know. Yeah, I know they are. But I think that this Lions offense is like legitimately really, really good. On a couple different levels, and we can talk about those. But there are so many components. now where kind of gets my gears going about, all right, what is it going to look like next year? Like, if they don't get a quarterback, like, just roll with golf for another year.

And like, what does that look like? It's not an ideal situation in terms of your ceiling, but he's playing really well. But let's just talk about today and some of the things that they did that you really liked. Oh, man. So in the month of November, so they've played five games. They're so since, oh, since the start of November, I should say, their top five to EPA per play. EPA per play on offense and top five and pass success rate. So it's not just they're running the ball, which we know is really the strength of this

offense. And today, I mean, in a couple of games, it's just been how good they are play action passing. And just Goff, Gough's always been good at hitting inside routes. When he was at Cal, they made, they ran this, they called it the Barerade offense. And he was getting his ass kicked over and over. All he hit was seam benders over and over and over. And he can still hit those routes.

to stand there and hit those throws. It's kind of like Tanna Hill a little bit without the arm strength. You know, they're willing to take those shots as they get smoked hitting these endbreakers. But their run game is they've run five different concepts, 30 or more times this year. Counter, inside zone, duo, outside zone of power. And they've run two other concepts, 10 or more times. It's a diverse, amazing run game. And now there's always that discussion that you don't have to have a great run game to set up the play action.

it helps though it really helps it helps when you have a good run game and it helps when your run game is married to your play action game yes if you have a cohesive plan for what your play action game will look like yes it's often it makes it more effective and those teams are the ones that happen to have a really well constructed and oftentimes effective run game I don't think there's causation between those two things but I do think that there is a link between those two things for a reason there it is you got you're great at this the the the but the thing so like but also so if you notice there are a couple two i've talked about checkdowns like checkdowns like the theme of the show is all those play actions is okay so they run the ball so the linebackers have to honor it okay now they've been hit by a couple play actions okay they got DJ chart catching stuff over the middle DJ shark boy great today but they also have other guys almond Ross st. Brown going over the middle so now talk about

him a second oh yeah so i got one good stab for him so now the linebacks are pushing back and there several times. I would say at least three times today where if you see Geragoff hitting the checkdown on play action, there's no defensive player on the screen. Like there's, because they're pushing so far back for the digs and the overs. And then once they get into this situational play, they can pound the rock in the red zone. That's why they, that's why Jamal Williams gets all these scores is because they can run the ball and they're willing to run the ball. They have some cool play action stuff. How many times since the Hawkinson trade, have you seen insert name tight end catching a touchdown on some play action play.

Then on third down, I'm on Ross St. Brown. Okay, on third and fourth down routes this year, he's gotten a first down on 19.2%. That's the third highest in the past decade, like for a single season. There's two Tyree kill seasons that are above them, just barely above them, but he's third on third and fourth down routes. He is a third down monster.

On third down, it's 20%. I have the exact same stat. He's the only player in the league. 20% of his third down targets turn into first downs. no other player in the league is above 17% of his routes. That's insane. That's a really, really high number. He's tied with Justin Jefferson for the most third down receptions in the league.

Yeah. It's awesome. And they got a great screen game. It's really balanced offense. Some other numbers with Alvon Ross St. Brown. I look these up because I really want to talk about him and not just what he did today, but in the larger scheme of the entire league, he's a superstar if you look at some of the numbers that he's producing.

He is second in the NFL in first downs per outrun, period. Tyreek Hill is number one. Here's three, four, and five. Stefan Diggs, Travis Kelsey, C.D. Lamb. In total, team receiving EPA on the season, okay? Amon Ross St. Brown is seventh. In the NFL, here's the guys ahead of him. Devonte Adams, Justin Jefferson, Stefan Diggs, Tyree Kill, Travis Kelsey, J.

J.1. bottle. That's it. That's it. And when they get to third down, they weaponize him. I mean, the amount of times where they're in a bunch or they're in trips and they're letting him run an option route on third down is letting him go to work. And he's extremely good at it. And I want to say, I had this stat earlier and I have lost it, but I think this is right. With him on the field this year, Jared Goff is averaging like 0.17 EPA per dropback. It'd be fourth in the the league. Without him, golf would be 21st. He has negative EPA per dropback when Alman Ross St. Brown is not playing. And that is important for two different reasons. I think it's a

reflection of how good Amon Ross St. Brown has been because he's been really fucking good. But I also think it's a reflection of what this lion's offense has been when their weapons have been healthy. Because they had that dip in the middle of the season. And that's when he wasn't throwing to anybody. They had that nightmarish game against the Patriots, and they really did have a wool. If they'd been playing like this and they'd been healthy for the entire year, this team is better than the teams at the bottom half of the NFC playoff race. I think they're better than the Giants right now. I think they're better than Washington right now. And I think you can make an argument that they're probably better than the Seahawks are right now with the way that they're moving the ball on offense.

I think it's a combination of actual star-level players like St. Brown, one of the best offensive lines in football. and a quarterback that's playing really well. Like, he is playing really well right now. And then the last component of this, they have a play caller that if I were a alliance fan, I'd be starting to get a little bit worried about how well things are going. Yeah. You wish it was flipped that the beginning of the year was like this and it kind of cooled off as the year went along.

I'd be concerned about how well things are going. Because some of the stuff that Ben Johnson does and what he's built this offense into, you with Jared Goff and again, very good, a pretty darn good supporting cast, but still, Jerry Goff is a quarterback, a quarterback that the Rams ejected from town and then drove a bus over back and forth about 20 different times last off season. They're really playing, they're playing extremely well with him at the helm. And it's well constructed. Like the tight end screen on the first drive, they had a chunk plate of shark out of 13 personnel. Jumbo where they had Dan Skipper and as a sixth offensive alignment.

The Jags had three defensive backs on the field and they ran dagger for like a 25-yard chunk gain out of it. And you just see that consistently where the design is there, the execution is there. It was a little tiny moment in the second half. It was a screen to D'Andre Swift. And they were in the shotgun and he started on the left of the quarterback. He moves right across the center and then releases back to. his left. So one, you're playing

with the linebacker's eyes. Two, you're setting it up timing-wise to let guys get out. Just a small thing, but it's like, that's really good. That is really good. And then the one, I don't know if it was considered a checkdown, I guess it kind of was. But the one play where he hit Swift on the right side line

for a huge chunk gain, Olua Khan and Chad Mummer are just in hell. They were in a torture chamber. Aluqon spun around on that play. He did a full 360 degree turn as he was trying to figure out where the hell the ball was. And that's what they're doing. They're putting defensive players in hell right now, Ben Johnson is.

And I think that if this keeps happening at this rate and some enterprising team is looking for an interesting head coaching candidate, the Lions could be looking for a new play caller next year. Yeah. He knows how to use everything. The pieces all make sense. That's why Charc and St. Brown are nice compliments of each other. they're going to drop in Jameson Williams at some point.

We get one target today? One deep target that, you know, it didn't go great, but it's, he hasn't played football a long time. Get him back into cardio shape. That's the thing is, oh, I can't believe people even made a big deal about him playing Gunner. It's like he's not going to get hurt on those and he's going to run straight down the field and he's really good at it. So they didn't punt today.

So who cares. But they didn't punt. Oh, Jags defense, man. I was so high on them in September. Man, they just like putrid right now. They can't even get pressure. And this offenseal eye, though, that's, there's, there's, The diversity of the run game with Hank Frailey does as the offensive line coach.

And they've had injuries and they've, you know, Frank Ragnow missed some games. We're talking about injuries throughout this whole team. John Jackson's missed games. And they still do awesome stuff. They, on the, against the bills, they had a protection on Thanksgiving where Dan Skippers is they don't even hesitate on this blitz that the bills ran. And why I'm bringing that up is the Chargers face the exact same blitz against the Cardinals. And there's a veteran left guard.

You know, they're, they bust it. They busts on the look and the Cardinals get a free runner. So the fact that they don't miss a beat when they do have backups in there, that speaks to coaching. It really does. There's a reason guys are running wide open, not only because the Jack's past defense is terrible, but also just because they do it consistently. They know what they're getting. That's why they have diversity in the run game and they tie it together with the past game. It's good stuff.

And I agree with you. People should be knocking the door of this office coordinator and the Eagles office coordinator as well. Yeah. I think they both will be. I think both of those guys would be hot names by the time we get to. the end of the season. Shane Steichen is the Eagles offensive coordinator. It's worth mentioning. If this Lions defense

had been merely bad and not the worst defense in the league for the first half of the season, they'd be going to the playoffs. We said it last week. This is the version of them, I think you hoped for coming into the season what they've looked like over the last few weeks. All right. Speaking of the NFC playoff picture,

we're going to have to start checking in with where the playoffs are pretty much every single show at this point. And especially today, I am so mad. at Washington and the Giants for tie. I'm so mad. I'm sure in some way it's going to make it easier because now whoever wins the second game between them

is going to have the tiebreaker. But if we get into some nonsense situation where I got to figure out who's up a half game and who's not and all this, I just, I'm really, really bitter about them adding just one layer of more like nonsense and craziness to this entire thing. All right.

So as things currently stand after the Giants, Washington tie today, which we can talk about in a bit. Giants are currently the six seed. Austin Mock has their playoff odds at about 40%. I think that that's probably just because of the downturn that they've had and kind of the trajectory that they're on. The Seahawks currently have an 89.5% chance to make the playoffs, according to him as the seven seed. I assume that's all predicted. Yeah, obviously.

And then Washington is at 44%. So I assume that it's a. essentially now just kind of a toss-up still between Washington and the Giants for that last spot where everyone else is pretty locked in at this point. Which is pretty crazy. You know, God, and they play again, what? They match up again in a couple weeks or whatever it is. And that's, God, of course they tied.

The Lions have a 12% chance right now, according to his model, 12%. Man, that's, you're telling me there's a chance. That's juicy. That's interesting. Okay, so to see how they're playing. But that, also, hold on, I do have one rant during that Giants' commanders game was Jonathan Vilmo was a great player. And I'm sure he's a great guy. But we got to teach analysts.

And I know you and Mitch did a nice video on past protection. We got to teach all analysts five-man protection rules. And why the unblocked, the man-in-lawed scrimmage ends up unblocked when a team isn't empty or runs five-man protection. Because too many times as a son of an offensive line coach. And how many times I had to hear some brat kid in like seventh grade go like, ooh, you're downed up like four stacks yesterday. And like three of them were on because it was hot or the running back missed a protection. We got to teach just the basics of five-man protection is that sometimes the end man ends up free because of the five-man protection and they have to squeeze down. That is just the rules of five-air protection.

Longest path to the quarterback. It's just physics. It's just math. So, sorry. That was just one of my one rant. And it just bugs the shit out of me because it happened in the Steelers Colts game, I think, too. And people were getting mad at Kenny, or they're getting mad at the protection. There was really Kenny Pickett.

I had no, he was hot. So it's just, you know, sorry. I just, I have to get that rain out of the way along with the tie. Somebody had a good joke that it was like wrestling where no one put someone over. Like there was like a 10 second countout, double count out. That's what this game was. We're just pushing it off to the next matchup. So the lions over their next three have Minnesota, the Jets, and Carolina.

And if they go on a run and they beat the Bears, if they win like four in a row, their chances get like up close to like 50. percent. Okay. And then if they, if they, if the Giants win these games, if the lions start winning these games and the lions like really go on a run, they could potentially do it. And they do have some winnable matchups. Obviously, I think the game against Minnesota next week's game they're supposed to lose. And if they win that game, I think that stuff starts getting pretty interesting. Super interesting. So they go, okay, they go Vikings, jets, Panthers, Bears, Packers. Okay. That's, that's doable.

They're in it. I kind of want to see them make it just because of how well they're playing right now. I know. I know that, you know, again, the Giants have had an impressive season considering their talent, but the ceiling of the Lions offense right now, I think, just makes them a more interesting potential playoff team than this Giants team is right now. And same with Washington. I mean, that game was ugly in all the right ways. I mean, Taylor Haneke makes a miracle fourth down completion to Curtis Samuel.

The Giants have a chance to put it away on third. or down. They have both of their running backs and a split black look run into each other. And Brian Dable decides to punt on fourth and three. It's just about what you would expect from that one. Great stuff. Yeah. Hey, Dana Jones hit his rushing over. So that was good for me. I get my one tout of the year. So I'm very proud of myself. Made sure the tweet about it. But also like John Dotson had a nice game for Washington. I mean, that's a huge play. Huge play. There's no denying that the vice or that Washington has some receiving talent. That is very apparent.

You see Curris Samo getting handoffs and stuff. Like it's like, and Brian Robinson's been a nice piece for him because he's just a bruiser for them. So when they run all these light personnel groupings, it's like kind of like a nice, you know, differing body type. You got light bodies on the field. Let's have a bruiser. Just pound a rock on them.

So, you know, Washington does some nice things. I love their defense align. Like we talk about their DBs, but this game, like you said, this game was, it was ugly in all the right ways. But there were some, you know, some nice plays and some nice scheme going on. All right. we're going to take one more quick break, and then we're going to dig into the AFC playoff picture a little bit. All right, so let's dig into this.

Some pretty huge, kind of monumental outcomes for the playoff picture today. The Chargers losing, they went from having what I assume would be like a better than 50% chance to make the playoffs to now being, according to Austin's numbers, about 33% chance to make the postseason after losing that game to the Raiders. And part of me is kind of happy about that because it allows me to just not have to, to do this bargaining with the Chargers. Watching that game today and even where they were after last week and just where they are in general, I think the Raiders might just be better than the Chargers right now. Like in this moment, I think the Raiders might just be better than the Chargers. I don't think that's crazy to say.

I don't think so either. Because the Raiders found their way to do everything. Yes. There's a reason you see a lot of big plays of Josh Jacobs and Devante Adams going like, oh yeah, these guys are pretty good. Let's just pound the rock and run, like, run ISO routes to Devante Adams. And it works. Then you watch the Chargers and it's just cruel and tragic at times.

And it's, I swear, you just have to hypnotize Justin Herbert and Joe Lombardi and say, hey, it's fourth and 12. And then all of a sudden you get some great play out of them because it's just so blah at times. And it just over time, it's, it's really worn on me too. Against the Blitz today. Justin Herbert, five of 12, 52 yards. Okay. Really?

Yeah. Five of 12, 52 yards. Okay. This season, he is 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks and EPA per dropback against the Blitz. Here are the quarterbacks who have been worse than Justin Herbert against the Blitz this year. Carson Wetz.

Yep. Marcus Marietta. Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones. Oh. And this is one of those games. Again, they just had no answer for pressure. Like, absolutely none. And the offensive line was supposed to be better

than it is, and that's just not the case. And so now you have a season that kind of feels like it's a lost one. I don't know, likely not going to make the playoffs. And I think they have some real hard questions to ask themselves this offseason after how all this went down. It's just so blah. It's just this, yeah, I call them the Stars and Scrubs roster before the season, but I just thought, I just didn't think it would be so tough on them every play.

Like watching that Cardinals game back two weeks ago, or last week, I should say. And rewatching it, I was like, oh, you know, still Herbert's making some plays, but then just so much is tough, so much as him having to make an extended play or a hero throw, like a sideline out throw to the field or a drifting back on a choice route where he's doing the Madden drop on a choice route. You watch other teams do these same concepts and they just look easier. It looks so hard. Everything looks hard.

Everything looks so and feels so hard. And that's why I think that even if you're staring at that 33% chance that Allison's given them, it's hard to feel good about that. because they're trending almost in the wrong direction with how their offense is rolling. Absolutely. They have to be perfect with everything. That's why it's just, it's hard to have any faith in them as much as we love Herbert. It's just that, it's just so tough on them. They have no easy buttons.

We talk about easy buttons. That's what the offenses are built around. They have none other than Herbert Hero plays. That's really what. And check down, or choice route, Sackler. But it's like, there's a ceiling to that. Wanted to start there because I think that's probably the biggest swing of the day. Patriots are now at 27.

6% they're the 8 seed. After that loss to Buffalo on Thursday night, again, it feels like they're trending in the wrong direction. So top seven now after those two losses, I think, is starting to crystallize a bit where the Jets, even after the loss today, still have a 56% chance to make the postseason according to Austin's numbers. And that feels right. Obviously, the dolphins get knocked down in the AFC East standing.

So now the bills are sitting there with right now the buy. And that's the other big, big development today is the, the, chief's losing and now the bill is kind of reclaiming potentially the one seat and the a FACC and that rolling through Buffalo is potentially a monumental outcome if the bills can kind of string some games together here and end up finishing with the one seed. The chiefs do have two games against Denver, a game against the Texans, which kind of helps the all kinds of AFC games and kind of who I want to see on my slate for the last month of the season.

But no, like you said, like, so we're talking about Jets Patriots Chargers at 789 right now. like which unit do you feel the best about now to me it's the jet's defense so that's that's what i'm betting on i'm betting on i think their offense is competent enough right now you know it's going be high and lowish but their defense is truly a strength that's going to hang with any team so that's where that's when you're looking at right i'm stacking 789 and of course they have the easy play the best playoff odds of those three teams so i'm really you know really going out on a limb here but i think that's the team i feel the best about so right now after the way that today finished and the Ravens winning that game mirically late, which we'll talk about.

Austin still has the Ravens with a 60% chance to win the division, and that's if Lamar plays 50% of their remaining games. So the Ravens' remaining schedule is at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. So not very good. But you look at the Bengals' remaining schedule, and I think that part of the reason we were considering them having this murderer's row down the stretch was this Chiefs game that they just won.

And they beat the Titans. They're 2 and 0 of that murderers row. They beat the Titans. So they are playing the Browns at home, going to Tampa Bay at New England, Buffalo, Baltimore. Obviously a tougher slate than what the Ravens are facing. But I'd have to guess they're probably going to be favored in all of those games except Buffalo. Yeah. Before they get to that Ravens game.

I don't know. I'll see what that was there. No, I agree with that. So I think there's a real chance that that game in the next three games. The next three games, they're favored. That's the best way to put that. Next three games are favored. And I think they're playing great ball.

But I mean, as good as ball as anyone in the NFL. So yeah, I know. I think there's a real shot that that game in week 18 is for the division. Yeah. And maybe more. I mean, depending on how other stuff breaks. I mean, technically there only one get back on the bills and they play them. I wonder what, looking at it right now, I think this should tell us.

So I believe the first tiebreaker after head-to-head is division record when you're fighting for the division. Unfortunately, the Ravens are undefeated in the AFC North right now and the Bengals are one and three. So they probably are a full game behind Baltimore right now in the division, even if they have the same record. So that's, I mean, and if this is being if they win week 18 and they have the head to head together. So then, I mean, to get to three division losses, the Ravens would have to lose to the Bengals in week 18. And then they would have to lose two games to the Browns or the Steelers over the next little stretch here. And that seems fairly unlikely if Lamar plays a chunk of those games. So let's finish on that note.

They win today in ugly, ugly fashion. news afterward, John Harbaugh saying that it sounds like Lamar's knee injury is not season ending. He is like day to day week to week, which is pretty huge news because I mean, I know that Tyler Huntley was fine today in relief. He's fine overall. He's fine overall. But what this offense has put on Lamar and what this offense requires of him, it's hard to feel. It was hard for me last week after watching the way that they played to get excited about the Ravens' chances with Lamar. play. But if he misses any stretch of time and he's less than 100% as we get to the playoffs,

I think it absolutely changes the calculus of what this team can accomplish. He carries such a load for them, literally and figuratively. And that's the thing is like I watched that Jags game last week who, you know, it's a porous defense as we've seen the last few weeks with them. And it's like, I felt good about what Lamar was doing, but I didn't feel good about the offense is doing, which is kind of the theme for this Ravens' offense from the past year and a half. And it's just, yes, Huntley can do some, you know, Mr. Pibb 60% version of what Lamar can do. I do credit the Ravens for being one of the teams that goes, hey, we're going to match our play style with their backup. Yeah.

But that's the thing is that even with that, it's not Lamar. It's not the young MVP winner. It's not that player. That's why they need him. Like, because otherwise they're throwing, Tyler Huntley is throwing all these balls to DeMarcus Robinson. And it's, as the more, the lesser the quarterback play, the more he put on the offense. to play car and play designer. And this is the guy that ran the Patrick Ricard screen last week.

Like that, even though he might be the favorite to be a Stanford head coach, there's still a lot of reservations for this guy and how he can sustain a game playing when he doesn't have a ton of easy buttons. And usually the big, fat, easy button that this offense has is Lamar Jackson. So, yeah, I'm a little trepidious maybe about this Ravens team right now. And especially without Lamar. I mean, it's just, it's a tough break. I mean, the fact that he's going to play again this year is much better.

news than the Niles got with Jimmy G, obviously. And I'm very happy that Trevor Lawrence managed to escape. It looked like a pretty devastating injury to his, even though the Twitter doctors said his leg might be amputated, you know, he came back in the second half, five, 15 minutes later. So you've got to, those initial reports are, you got kind of ignore him for a little bit. I was pretty bummed out with the Broncos losing this game because it would have been great to get just a little bit more breathing room for that number two overall.

pick really really would have been nice i mean justin fields has like four or five like highly real throws in this game another 50 yard touched out and they lose it just that the problem is though here's this is going to be this series of emotions that i have as it relates to that i'm going to be sitting there looking at the number two pick and this yes here we go like kings ransom for whoever wants to come up and get a quarterback like i want a future first i want a million different things because that's what it's going to take. But then the flip side of that is going to be staring at pick 33 and knowing that that's Chase Claypool. And it might be fine, but so far, I would say the returns have been somewhat underwhelming. And it's also one of those things. We talk about this at the moment,

so I don't even feel like this is revisionist history. No. When you have the 33rd overall pick, what that 30 third overall pick could be for some receiver that becomes available on the trade market this year, that's also going to be in my mind. So, we can revisit my feelings about the Bears drop position a little bit later though if if AT Perry's there at 33 next year you're going to be crying I'll be there with you because it's a match me in heaven getting that guy into a Bears uniform but if they do have that number two pick man and you know Fields should be their guy I mean Will Anderson or Jalen Carter if they hold that number two pick it's like who I'm sure that every single time oh I know you are but those two guys

if the package is there I'm getting out of there I'm not like out of the top 10 yeah Yeah, that's exactly right. When did the Bears give up to move up one spot to take Trabiski? They gave up like a third, right? But even that, move back one spot. Several thirds. Well, the one I'm looking at is I hope the Panthers continue to play well. Because right now, the Panthers are picking fifth.

This is funny that we're doing this right now. Panthers are picking fifth in this moment. The Lions are picking fourth. So if, and Seattle's picking third. So there's a chance of Carolina, who is the team, I think, that needs a quarterback the most out of all the teams on that list. If you want to get from five to two, let's have a conversation.

Right. And I'm open to a dialogue. Can we get that second rounder? Because we gave up ours. Yeah, that's exactly right. Listen, if we can recoup some of those in the Chase Claypool calculus here, then everything becomes a little bit more easier to stomach.

All right. Guys, that is all we have. Really appreciate you stopping by, spend another night with us when we got five of these left for the regular season. which is kind of crazy to think about. Please, if you have not subscribed to the YouTube channel, if you're listening to this in podcast form,

you can do that in the description of the podcast. If you're watching this, hit the little subscribe button. You'll be happy that you did. We're doing a lot of YouTube stuff this year. We will be back with our Thursday night recaps this week, even though the Thursday night game leaves a little bit to be desired. But I think that we're going to be back. So please, if you have not subscribed to the athletic,

athletic.com slash football show is where you can do that. We will be back with Mike Sam. and the Monday Hangover tomorrow. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.