The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 14 recap — Brock Purdy mania, Lions win again, checking in on the playoff picture, and more

Episode Date: December 12, 2022

There are just four weeks remaining in the regular season, and the playoff picture in both conferences is still more than a little bit fuzzy. Could the Lions sneak into one of the NFC's final spots? Could the Jaguars win out and topple the Titans? Are we sure the Buccaneers are going to win the NFC South? Robert Mays and Nate Tice break it all down on the Week 14 recap episode of The Athletic Football Show. Plus, Purdymania in San Francisco!Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube3:46 Chargers beat Dolphins, get back in playoff picture20:46 The Jalen Hurts MVP case35:16 Purdymania!48:46 Lions creep closer to playoff spot62:40 NFC playoff race72:51 AFC playoff race Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me tonight is my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing very well. Now I'm trying to think of stuff to say right away because I already got like made fun for my meandering thoughts

to start each podcast. And I'm aware that I do it. It's because I sit here for the two minutes as we're doing the intro, listening to Bell or give an ad read and just kind of like thinking and lost my thoughts. Like the last thing I think of before this podcast starts. It's a great day. NFL Sunday. NFL's awesome. Don't give me wrong. Is that my closet door is open. And that was the last thought that went through my head. And it's like, welcome to the athletic football show. So I'm doing

great. Can you tell me I had a nice little shot of espresso before this episode too? Like that was just I, we have to stay up and watch the White Lotus finale after we finish recording this. My fiance and I, so she's been planning for it for like six hours. And I also had to just drink a cold brew. I just drank a stock time cold brew at 1045. I'm levitating right now. It's amazing. So we're, You guys are about to see something. We're going to rip it here over the next hour or so. A lot of stuff to dig into today. We're going to talk about the Lions Big Win.

Talk about big day for Jalen Hertz and what that might mean for the MVP conversation. Purdy Mania happen out there in San Francisco. I'm very excited about that. Talk about the NFC and AFC playoff pictures. Just kind of where things stand. Kind of go rapid fire through some of the games today that might affect the playoff pictures in both conferences. Let's start with the game we just watched, though. Nate, not sure if you're aware of this, but Justin Herbert's pretty good.

I, I, I've said this before on the show. I have the same note. I think that Justin Herbert guy is pretty, pretty damn good. And I think he was willing to try some stuff tonight. I've seen some Justin Herbert creative plays out of Frody and Slip right there. Some, like, creative plays right there. That was a great performance from Justin Herbert. And really the Chargers, actually the Chargers defense, we'll get to it in a sec,

but that Justin Herbert guy, he can play some football. He can sling that pigskin around. What he did under pressure today, just seemingly every time someone was in his face, this is a skill that he has had for a very long time. And there have been some iffy moments with this over the last few weeks as their offensive line has crumbled even further than it had over the last couple of years, losing your right tackle, your left tackle, and your starting center last week. Is that all?

They couldn't even operate against them. Raiders. But even in the first half of the season, when they weren't rolling and when he was banged up with a rib injury, if you look at how few sacks he was taking compared to how often he was getting pressured, his ability to not make bad plays horrific plays and to skirt around pressure in the pocket, keep plays alive. It's a combination of a lot of stuff for me. I think it's processing, athletic ability, which for a guy, his size is super rare.

The way that he can move and manipulate the pocket for somebody that's a lot of stuff. 6-6. I've never seen anybody, except for a guy we might talk about a little bit later who can do it. Like, Kim and Lawrence at that size are really the first guys I've seen that can do that. Josh Allen, 6-5, we've had the tall quarterback conversation a million different times. But watching him do that is pretty remarkable. And then the strength to get some throws off. So today, the Dolphins blitzed him, according to X-Gen stats, on 43.6% of his dropbacks. He was pressured on 31% of his dropbacks in this game. And he finished. 39 to 51 for 367 yards.

And that doesn't even begin to mention some of the weird third and short play calls. So I mean, we can talk about him. The Carter one at the beginning of the game. A screen to Keenan Allen that wasn't really a screen. They're still the same charges frustrations. But this is one of those days where he just outshines all of that stuff. That's it. And that's where just getting into that whole social media quarterback stuff is always why it's so

frustrating about just with Justin Herbert is he makes those highlight throws. the shot play to Mike Williams, you know, that, again, that he had pressure on, even though that play is designed to wot it up so the quarterback has plenty of space. He still has two guys be lining right at him. And he puts down the money, it's all the in between stuff that Justin Herbert does. He is a, he, he, the twitchiness, the big, the size, the movement in the pocket, the big throws, the big arm. It's everything in between all those flashy, all those flashy things. That's why I laughed all the time when people are like, yeah, you know, people just got, you know, all go over those three throws.

It's like, no, we all go over the. 15 throws in between that where he's making a guy miss. It's the combination. It's the highlights plus the process. That's what makes him so just rare in terms of the skill set and the combination. It's not just the highlight plays. And when you see games like tonight, there's a reason why I thought that he was going to knock on the door of being in that top tier of quarterbacks this year. And it didn't end up happening for a lot of different reasons in terms of his overall production for the season.

But this argument that he's not a borderline elite quarterback or he hasn't broken through yet. The word you used on Friday, I thought was perfect. He's exceptional. He is exceptional. And where you want to stack him up among the guys in the league, that's a conversation we can have at a different time. But he is exceptional. He is one of those quarterbacks that you win because of, not just win with. And tonight is a serious reminder of that.

And one of the things that I found strangest about the discourse, and there has been discourse last week, is this idea that he hasn't really broken out yet. And maybe he hasn't had the MVP type season. But the stat I threw out on our Thursday preview show, over the last 11 years, 12 years since 2010, among guys with at least 1,000 pass attempts, he's 11th, that EPA per dropback. Yeah. He's already broken out. He's already had that season where he was an elite or borderline elite quarterback. And even if this has been uneven over the course of this year as things have crumbled around him, it's so strange to me that people don't think he's had that kick down the door moment because I thought he had it last year.

Yeah. And that's what, that's what's so funny to me. Like, oh, he's dipped back this year. He has the potential. No, no, he already did it all. Like, since he's been the league, I think he's fifth in EPA per dropback or tied for fifth. And the guys above them are the guys you think that would be above them. It's Aaron Rogers, Mahomes, Josh Allen, I think Deshawn Watson, and I believe.

believe he's tied with Tom Brady. It's like he's already there. Like it's just that yes. I'm sure Burroughs getting there now. Burroughs right behind right there. And that's the thing is Burrow also had the weird rookie year with injured and stuff. So but like now it's like yeah, Burroughs climbing up the ranks. But that's the thing. I'm glad you said that that first, fourth down call. If the Chargers didn't win this game, I was going to say that that play was the encapsulation of all the Chargers issues or it was just the Chargers as a whole. I don't even say issues. Brand Staley, awesome, goes for it and fourth and goal early in the game. Okay, cool. I love it.

Yeah, be aggressive. Then it was a Joe Lombardi special where they isolate DeAndre Carter, the guy that's played 700 snaps leading into this year for four different teams. And it was like, I understand, again, we've talked about this a lot of their frustrations with the Chargers offenses.

A lot of stuff that seems good on the chalkboard. And then you get into practice and it's like, well, they covered it. Or what else he got? Like, how is you going to make this easier on your team? So that play was like an encapsulation.

But again, Herbert overcomes this stuff. And that's why in Austin, Nicol or two. But that fourth down, there's a fourth down, third down, third down out route to Keenan Allen. Start five. Yeah. Third and five.

What I said? What I said? Fourth quarter third down throw out, but about nine minutes left. And that right there is Justin Herbert. Puts it on the money tightly covered, like a covered hard route to throw and puts on the money like it was nothing. That's Justin's her. The reaction was amazing.

The fact that his first reaction was to turn around and just point straight at him. That's how you know. That guy has seen a lot of football. Keenan Allen over the last decade. He's seen a lot of really good quarterbacking. And for him to react like that, I think, says everything it needs to say. That's what it is. And that's the stuff that Herbert does.

And that's why it's, I've made this joke before with the processing stuff. So he makes that flashy throw out. It goes to the right spot. And it's just like, that's him right then and there. And it's not Drew Breeze. It's Drew Windstorm, like how he processes and everything. Because he does all that stuff. He reads, there's all the jokes about stick that everyone's run into the ground now.

But the thing is, Herbert gets through all of it. He'll hit the middle checkdown like Drew Breeze. used to, but then also he's pulling up and throwing 60-yard bombs. It's the combination that makes him so special. Who knows what will happen over the next four weeks or so, five weeks or so? I mean, the Chargers are very much back in the playoff now after winning that game. But this is still a very flawed team. Yes.

And it's not about that to me. It's about the fact that over the last few days, over the last couple weeks, there have been these rumblings about like what's Justin for Herbert's future and what kind of quarterback is he really. And I think you and I both were looking at that stuff and just being like, what? Yeah, that was strange. I just don't really understand that. We can talk about his ceiling and where that exists, but his floor and what he is, I don't really have a lot of doubts or confusion or concerns about that. I think he is firmly one of the most important, valuable players, period

in the NFL over the next five years. His situation can't get worse than this year. And he's already playing productive football. So it's like, okay, we know what his floor is now. Like, this is it. There's no complaints from my end, at least. So the Jets lost, which we'll get into a little bit later. We'll talk about the charge of playoff chances when we talk about that game. But they're really flipped today with that win. They have a pretty good chance of actually sneaking into this thing now. A team that is still very likely going to make the playoffs,

but another rough outing is the team that they beat tonight with the Dolphins. Two finishes 10 of 28 for 145 yards. You mentioned before we started, if you take out that bomb to Tyreek Hill where Michael Davis slips, what are the numbers? Nine for 27 for 85 yards. Jesus. which is pretty dire. So if you're trying to diagnose what went wrong tonight, what would you say? Is it connected to last week?

It's terrible. I shouldn't ask two questions at once, but I just did. Where are you at about what might be the root cause of this? Well, you saw the old line blemishes come up and when the stuff, you're not getting those chunk plays that they live off of that were, again, we always talk about easy buttons. It was a game where the charges were like, okay, do the hard stuff over and over. And you could see that the dolphins struggled with it. And it kind of at a different, some similarities.

I say some philosophical, like way ago about it that the 49ers did last week as far as being aggressive, being physical with this dolphins, especially this dolphins receiving group, make sure they get hands on, no free releases. And maybe different coverages and different looks. I think there's a lot. What I'm seeing is that to trust Mike McDaniel to point him in the right direction and stuff, he can progress to get to that spot, but it's ingrained in him. He had led more than he ever has tonight.

I think he had like three scrambles tonight, which is like only like the third multi-scramble game of the season. And you could see it is because he was starting to go like, well, I have to get the three and three is covered. Oh, shoot. Or I have to get the two and two's covered. All right, I guess you got to go scramble now. That's why you're starting to see that because it was a lot of the stuff. It felt like the chargers were showing the one look, the pre-snap look, and then the post-snap look, either bailing from the line of scrimmage or getting physical with the routes. changing up the timing.

It felt like in its own way, a very mini version of the famous Colts Patriots game in the playoffs where they changed the illegal contact rules. I'm not saying they're going to change all that. Not changing it. Honestly, though, it's a great thing to bring up because there was a play on the first or second drive

where Drew Tranquil was, Tyreekill was in the slot. It was incompletion that almost turned into an interception. And he rocks Tyree Kill about at five yards. So they're trying to skirt that line a little bit in this game and how aggressive they were playing all across the board. Next gen stats,

really interesting numbers, 35% press coverage for the Chargers in this game. Single season high for them. Second highest the Dolphins have faced in the game this year. The bills were at 40% in week three. The only reception that the dolphins had against press in this game was that Tyree Kill 60-yard touchdown. And they did it 35% at the time.

So I think that, and they didn't play a ton of a man. coverage, you know, but they were physical in zone coverage. The example you brought up was slot press. We always think of press on the outside. Yeah. Like that's the thing. You're getting contact on the slot.

So you're not getting those overs and the things over the middle. And that's, teams are so terrified of them during the first half of the season. And then when two was really rolling, I just wanted somebody to get up and start playing this type of style because if you're going to go down, go down swinging. Yeah. Like there's just no reason to sit back and let them get these chunks over and over and over again. Right. Because at some point, you're going to have to disrupt the machine.

Because that's what Tua's trust in what that machine looked like was so vital to why they were successful that I think that you have to rattle that trust a little bit and the timing of it. And I think that's exactly what you saw tonight. Just a little tiny tweaks. Staley's a really good specific game planner. The idea of on certain looks where I can remember exactly what the down and distance situation was it looked like two man, but it might not have been where they had heavy, heavy inside leverage on Waddle and Hill, both. lined up on the left side with safety help over the top of both of them. And she's like, all right, it's heavy, heavy inside leverage. They don't want to hit these inbreakers.

There's nowhere to go with it. And so I just thought that he called a great game. The game plan was really good defensively. And then you have a quarterback who looked pretty damn good. And guess what? Look pretty damn good with his guys back. Yeah. I want to say, coming into this game, I think that Josh Palmer, Keenan Allen and Mike

Williams had played like a dozen snaps together or something like that this season. And even with the offensive line concerns, having those three. guys back and together and just their full arsenal of receiving options, you saw what sort of a difference that makes. And you saw what that quarterback can play like when he has even a smidge of help. Yeah. It was it was pretty dire. Like there was a lot of points for how poor the O lines were playing on both sides of the ball. Like it was, I credit to what the dolphins, how they design their stuff and a couple two of things, but then also just Herbert being Herbert. Like it's like credit to those guys because, man, there was some bad, bad, there's a lot of O line leakiness in this game.

that's what Christian Wilkins has a standout game. He's had a standout season. That's pretty cool. He's awesome. I was bummed that we didn't really mention him last week because we were so worried about how the offense played against the Niners and the Purdy situation. He was fantastic against San Francisco last week and I meant to talk about it. I want to say, and I'm not probably is still the case after this game. He led the league in run stops for loss or non-sack tackles for loss among any players in the league after last week. I mean, the love. I mean, the love. level of disruption that he is creating week in, week out is remarkable. And this game was another example of that. That's my new favorite stat put together in true media. It's a great one. Non-sac TFLs plus run stops. So it's like, yeah. And he's, he leads the league. He just took the lead again. Matt Milano, I think is in second. But yeah, he is just a monster. Just think about that. Think about how disruptive you have to be as a defensive tackle to lead a league. And that stat when you're going against guys like Matt Milano. It's incredible. It is. Are you, how concerned are you about

the Dolphins moving forward with the offense in the way that it's operating right now. Do you feel like this is a blip? Do you feel like this is the sign of what's to come? Where are you at? I mean, they now put it on tape. You know, that's what's scary. You don't want to be doing this right as you're heading into the postseason. Like I like, I've loved what the dolphins have done on offense, but you're now seeing

our preseason worries kind of come to fruition in week, kind of at the worst time for them, you know, week 14 charging into December and January. And then that's the thing is they're not playing like pushovers, the right? rest of the way. You just mentioned that the bills were the ones that pressed them the most last. Bills are one of the smartest defenses. They play them next. And then you got the Packers, which is, you know, they might be starting Jordan Love, who knows, but then the Patriots are a physical team. And then you got the Jets who are physical defense as well. So it's kind of a murder's row for this offense. I think the defense is kind of what we know is middle of the packish,

maybe a little above averagey. You run on them a little bit. They're going to try and blitzie a little bit. But I think this offense is you're starting to see some of the cracks where or just the imperfections of this offense become more glaring. That's what happens. When the season gets late, you have so much film. It happens every year to everyone. And I can't remember what week it was. We did a show with David Howman.

We were talking about the Super Bowl contenders. And I was talking about the dolphins. And I said, I just want to see them work through whatever little dip is coming for their offense because it's coming. It always comes. Almost every single offense except Kansas City. The chiefs don't really have those two or three games. wounds because my home just doesn't have really bad games.

I mean, through three interceptions today, but if you look at the overall numbers, he doesn't bottom out. And that's what makes them different. For the most part, almost every other offense you're going to think about, talk about, is going to have that little blip over the course of his season. And I remember the bills last year in the middle of the year had that exact sort of thing. And I wanted to see what would happen when the dolphins had to work through that. And they absolutely can.

There's a chance that they can, but now we're going to see it. And now we're going to see what they look. like coming out on the other side because that ultimately is what dictates how much of a threat you're going to be come playoff time. So this is going to be a really important stretch for Mike McDaniel on that team. It's the first time we've ever seen him have to do this. It's the first time we've ever seen Tua have to do this. And to me, it's a pretty telling process. So I'm excited to see how it goes. This is the most fascinating thing. This is why I'm so high on what the Bengals are doing right now because they have got punched in the mouth and they counter punched. And now it's like, oh,

this is awesome to watch. But it took them a while, but they got there. But honestly, watching the Chargers, the last week I want to say that the Dolphins ran that money play, the RPO wheel play, like I think it was 18 times. I want to say off top my head, maybe even 20. And the Chargers covered it today. It was the first team I've seen a team consistently cover it throughout a game, at least three times I saw. So it's like, okay, they took away your easy button. Now what do you got? And that's what we talk about game planning coaches.

This is where they come to, they start rising to the top. And that's what's going to be fun. I've really liked what Mike McDaniel has done. I like what two has how he's operating this offense. But now they just got to punch them out two weeks in a row. So what else he got? All right. One more thing I want to talk about before we get to you have my attention.

I want to chat a little bit about the MVP conversation. It has been a while since we've done this. I think that you and I are in a little bit of consensus about who the MVP of the league has been through the first 13 weeks. When you did your second edition of the 30s, you said that Patrick Mahomes was the MVP. I tended to agree with you. If you look at the numbers, you know, they're the most efficient passing offense in the league. They're the most efficient offense in the league. They still lead the NFL in most most of the important offensive categories, advanced, box score, anything.

And he's doing this when they purposely took a step back with our offensive personnel. When they lost Tyreek Hill and they kind of said, all right, we're going to put all this on you. What can you do? He's still been the best quarterback in football. And I think that for those reasons, That's why he was the MVP to me. He probably still is. But I want to talk about what an MVP argument for Jalen Hertz might look like.

Homes is still the MVP betting favorite coming into this game. He throws three picks today. I have to assume that there's going to be at least a narrative groundswell about Jalen Hertz this week. I see it. I see it for me. It's already coming. So here's my argument about if I'm going to make an argument for why Jalen Hertz is the MVP, here's how I would lay it out.

I understand that if you put Patrick Mahomes in the Eagles offense with the Eagle's supporting cast, which is part of my argument, that it would be absolute fireworks all the time. It would be electric. They're the best offensive line in the league. They have a fantastic running game. They have amazing weapons. We see how often those guys just dunk on people left and right. But I also think that it's not as easy.

It's not as simple as that. Because what makes the Eagles so scary this season is that no matter what you do, they have an answer for it. We've seen that week in and week out. Last week against Tennessee, they're like, fine, we don't care. We're not going to run the ball because you can't stop us throwing the ball. And they just rained out on you for four quarters. The week before that, they played the Packers, and they just ran all over them for four quarters because they could. And I think that J1 Hertz is integral to being able to do that.

The fact that he is a centerpiece of their running game and a centerpiece, obviously, of their passing game, I think their ability to have answers to everything doesn't come nearly as easily if they don't have J.1 Hertz. And I think that today was another really good example. He's making three or four really impressive throws on third down. The third and six completion with 805 in the first quarter was a beautiful ball of the Devante Smith. third and three completion against the Bliss to Quest Watkins early in the game. Third and six scramble on the same drive.

Fourth and seven, that completion on the slot fade to Devante Smith is a really well-placed ball down the sideline. So it's just, I understand that the Skolpstein players are great. I understand that the help is great. But he's making four or five throws a game at this point that are him making plays. And when you combine that with the rushing, I was blown away by some of these numbers. Right now, he has 35 total rushes.

EPA. No one else in the league is over 19 that has more than 25 carries. That's twice as much as almost any other runner in the NFL. Some of that is driven by the sneaks and the touchdowns. So if you take out rushes with two or few yards to go, so not just sneaks. He's still at 22. He still leads the NFL. He is still first an EPA per rush among all players with at least 50 carries. And then he's seventh in EPA per dropback. And then the Eagles are the best offense in the NFC and the second best offense in any metric you want to look at. Points per drive, touchdowns per drive, red zone efficiency, set of downs that produce a first down. They're second in every single one of those to the chiefs. So the fact that he gives them that flexibility and he's kind of at the

center of that flexibility, that's how I would make that argument. Yeah. I, it's so hard for me because I've just like, you've laid out all my home's portions of this. But I just, I just, want, take a second before I just list off a machine gun, a Gatlin gun of my home stats is Hertz has improved this year in ways that I was a glass half empty about him in the sense that he is operating from the pocket. That third and three example of Quez Watkins is perfect. Is two guys staring down the barrel, Giants brought a cover zero and he hits that route on time because if he's laid on that, that's an incomplete, incomplete pass. And that's like, okay, that is the progress I want to see.

He has 83 design rushes, like the leads all quarterbacks. It's absurd. I'm glad he listed the EPA and stuff. The QB sneak with him. Why they're able to do it is because he's a weapon. When you watch him as a runner, and he's such a different type of runner than the other type of really good running quarterbacks to Josh Allen and the Lamars and everything, is that he is just so strong.

And he has solid vision. He gets north and he can just bounce off the first tackler over and over and over and over. But the thing is, and the other thing, that'll give one. last stat that really speaks for Hertz is you look at EPA per dropback. Mahomes blows everybody out of the water, and I'll get to that in the second. But if you look at EPA per play,

including all the runs and everything, then Hertz is third. And that really speaks to him. Who's second? Tua. Tua. Toa going into tonight. So we'll see what he is after. But it's it was Mahomes, Tua, and then Hertz and Dak Prescott. So, of course, I want to list that set off. Get

Dak, get him a little love in there. You're nothing but consistent. I know. I know, but I'm just not going to, the shiny toy, I'm not going to go for it. But I'm going to go for, this is Mahomes. This is why Mahomes is to me, the MVP. And I don't want to knock anything that Hertz is done. I think if I did offensive player of the year right now, like, it's like Tyreek in Hertz. Like, honestly, like I would be willing to vote for a quarterback.

Usually I think that's a non-quarterback award. But I think Mahomes is MVP. The e-paper dropback, point three. It's the third best since 2018. It's the fifth best since 2012, with quarterbacks of 500 more attempts. The other ones, the top five, 2013, Peyton Manning, 2014 Aaron Rogers, 2019, Lamar, 2018, Mahomes. And he's tied with 2016 Matt Ryan.

His scramble EPA this year, total. He's fourth, Hertz is third. Just total EPA that generate around scramble. Sack percentage. Mahomes is third, Hertz is 23rd. Pass success rate. Mahomes is first, Hertz is 11th. True dropbacks.

So this is no play action, no screens. Chiefs do do a lot, although a decent amount of it. He's about league average, Mahomes. 67% of his past plays are true dropbacks. Hertz is 29th, just about half of his past, his passing plays are non-play action non-screens. And you already listed off that all the other metrics, the team metrics is all this. And it's, I just don't want to discredit what Hertz is doing. But what Mahomes is doing is, like, we talk about exceptional.

This is the true star stuff. This is not a down year. This is a top, top year for any quarterback in recent memory. And that's how we should look at it. That you can throw three interceptions instead of a QBR of 68 today. He threw for, he had a positive EPA today. If you had three interceptions. His EPA per drop back today is what Hertz's is on the entire season.

0.08. And he had three interceptions today. And that just, I mean, just the touchdown of McKinnon where he's just hookshoting it, like the runaround touchdown that he had later, it's unbelievable what this guy does. And it's just the classic alien test or the classic someone that's never watch football. You take him out there. Who's the best player? And everyone would just go number 15.

It's just, he is just that special. That's true. And I understand. that. But then obviously what he does is spectacular and the touchdown today is a perfect example. And the dropback numbers are there. But what makes the Hertz case interesting to me is about how important he is to the overall system and structure to what the Eagles do. And even like, Miles Sanders is second in the NFL and total rushing EPA if you look at those numbers. Is Miles Sanders that efficient of a runner if Jalen Hertz is not there? And I think that those are sort of the

to the conversation that I find interesting. I still think gun to my head, I'm picking Patrick Mahomes, but I think that there's going to be a building momentum for Jalen Hertz as the Eagles continue to do this. And I'm trying to just put myself in that position and think about what that might look like. And in my mind, the key parts to that argument and what it looks like is the fact that it's the rushing and the passing. It's not just his rushing. Like his, how central he is to their ability to have this fluency. and this flexibility on offense, that's at the core of it for me. So even if I'm still picking my homes, I feel better about what those Jalen Hertz arguments

might look like as they're going to start popping up more and more here. If you ever, man, it's, it's, I know exactly what you're saying because they can't operate how they operate, especially in the run game. If Hertz isn't there, if he isn't such a special runner, he knows how to do all of it. So I totally get what you're saying. It's just the passing game is just a little bit. that's the word my argument falls away a bit. It's like, you know, how simplistic it is, but they don't, not knocking the play calling or play design, because it's just, they don't have

to do anything else. The play calling is amazing. The play calling and play design is excellent. Because it's so streamlined. It's just, pick your poison, we're going to destroy you, no matter what. But I totally get what you're saying to Centric. But then I watch, then you just watch my homes, and you're like, well, can anyone else do what this freaking guy's doing? And then that's where it is. He could drop in it. You can run any offense with them. Maybe not what the Ravens do. but it's like you could drop them in and Mahomes is going to maximize what they're doing. He's the most scheme-proof player in the world. And so I don't know.

It's a fun consideration. What would the Eagles offense look like if Patrick Mahomes was their quarterback? I don't know. I don't know. And that's why this is fun to me because it's not just as simple as be like, all right, I'll drop this guy into what they're doing and they'll be better because the Eagles wouldn't look anything like the Eagles if Patrick Mahomes was their quarterback. They'd probably be better.

But they wouldn't look anything like they look right now. That, which speaks to the coaches again. And it speaks to how valuable Hertz is for what he does to that. For what he is. Yes, he's just a specific player. I'm trying to think of cross-sports comparison with him. And I might kind of drown a blank a little bit. But real quick, just talk about how design and how they use Hertz's ability to their benefit.

They had a backed up third and one. And we talk about the QB sneak play with Hertz is one of the best weapons in the game right now. And they showed the QB sneak. They did tackle over. so Milata was kicked over to the other side and they did a tight end motion into a pitch play off of it, which I thought was awesome. It's like they're getting, see, when we talk about, hey, you get kicked in the teeth or what wrinkles do you got? The Eagles already shown these wrinkles before anyone kicks them in the teeth.

I've already talked about that every time they've had a blemish so far where it was like, oh man, some teams figure out some answers. The next week they have something where they're like, oh, check that box. They solved it. So again, this eagle, this eagle's offense is pretty freaking awesome. Like it's, it's really hard to figure out who can stop him. And that speaks to Hertz and what Hertz is doing how he's operating as well. But it's still the homes to be and still will be home. I'm probably every week for the rest of the year.

I'm telling you guys, top five years since 2012. It's like, this is a historic year that he's doing right now. But the Hertz argument is fun. I probably agree with you. But again, it's fun to do this every once in a while. All right. We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to get back with you at my attention. Gentlemen, you have my curiosity.

But now you have my attention. Brock Purdy. You have my attention. Pretty Mania. Brock in this game, let me get back to it. Brock goes 16 to 21 for 185 and two touchdowns in a game where the Niners destroy the bucks 35 to 7. Where do you even want to start with this? Well, I originally when Devo got hurt, I was going to say that the foreign nars are officially the Black Knight and Monty Python.

You know, it's just a flesh ruin. they just keep coming. They're going to nod you off. I don't know, man. Like, he makes a couple of throws that this is the Brock Purdy stat that I think just perfectly encapsulates the difference of Brock Purdy and Jimmy G. Because there's so many similarities as far as where they're attacking, what plays they're calling and everything is Jimmy G scrambled twice this entire season. Brock Purdy's already scrambled three times this entire season. That is then and there.

The difference in play style, 60% of Purdy's throws are outside the pocket. That's double of Jimmy G's rate of 7. 8%. So that's a little bit of the difference with this play style. But man, he knows how to operate it. Everything's calm. They have no cadence stuff. He's making all the checks and kills. They're doing all the motion stuff. They haven't dumbed down anything for this offense. And the run game looks awesome. And yeah, Purdy Mania. It was fun to watch. He makes a couple of throws. They're really fun. And within what they're trying to accomplish offensively. And the opening drive, they did a third seven. He's a one by three with Kittle on the right side, and he hits a little in-breaker to Kittle.

When they get five in their pattern, the quarterback, I'm not saying is inconsequential, but there's a lot you have to worry about if you're a defense. So today I was curious about it, because watching that play, McAfree gets out into the flat to the same side that Kittle is on. And so there's just so many threats, especially when Debo is healthy, which we can talk about. In this game, when the Niners had five out in the pattern, Brock Purdy was 12. 12 of 14 for 14 for 14 42 yards. I mean, just very, very hard to stop. It kind of goes without saying.

So you have that example with Kittle. The McCaffrey touchdown is just wonky Kyle Shanahan shit. McCaffrey is at number one. George Kittle is in the backfield. And so the bucks on that play, they were in one of their wonky Todd Bowles type things. The defensive tackles were lined up as off ball linebackers on that play, which are big guys in general.

numbers in the 90s. One comes Scott free on a blitz, and it's a good thing Kittle is there, because Kittle has to hit an unblocked 300-pound blitzer to give pretty time to hit McCaffrey on that play. McCaffrey's open. He burns Logan Ryan, it's a touchdown. Again, in structure. But there were a couple plays in this game. It was one where he evades pressure and finds Kittle for a chunk in the first quarter.

There was that one play where he did the swim move with a defensive tackle and then found Debo Samuel out of structure. In between three guys. In this game, he was 7 of 8 for 109 when pressured. That type of stuff is probably going to come back to Earth. I mean, that's, there's really, it's very difficult to rely on that stuff, playing and play out over the course of a game. He had a bad interception in this game that was called back for,

I believe, a defensive holding that was completely unrelated to the interception that he threw. So we'll see what happens over a long stretch of time. But it's definitely a good first entry into how good can the Niners be and how far can they go with Brock Purdy as their quarterback. If he can do all the Instructure stuff for just well enough, they have so much juice on this offense. It's like these guys are just rolling. The Debo touchdown had the little design stuff.

CMC's the lone receiver and they motion IU can clear out the entire side. So like the run game is still a Shanahan run game doing some really fun stuff. You want to talk about 14 carries for 119 today. They ran more times than they pass and that's because they can do that. That's where that being in 21 personnel, this is the perfect defense to go against, too. I always talk about it with the Bulls defense, you want to get them to base. And they're trying to, they're making them be uncomfortable because Bulls wants to get to his pressure stuff out of sub. But just like some of these rods, man, like they had like a split zone with juice check in motion and the kiddle sliding across.

So split zone. They did that twice. Yeah. It's like a double lead. Yeah. It's awesome. I was trying to, I didn't know how to characterize it in my notes. So I was wondering what you would talk about how you would say it.

Jet out split zone. So you jet with a kickout block with a split zone. That's how I would call it. It turns basically into a counterplay. That's kind of how it ends up. But they ran it out of pistol. So there was no counterstep. It looks really weird in practice.

And it's just one of those things where there are four or five plays in this game, only the Niners are going to run. Only the Niners are going to try. And we talk about like a plays like duo or I talk about it all the time. But like receiver blocking and how they have to fit up. And you watch this Bucks offense. You know, it's Chris Godwin. You watch Packers, you know, with Lazars.

and these guys are fitting up on safety, CD Lamb. And then you watch what the Jets do this a little bit too, Shanahan-type offenses. Watch how many times the 49ers asked their receivers to pin a D-N so they can get outside to the weak side. And it was IUC a bunch today. This guy's a first-round pick who's super skilled. And that's not the guy that you would expect to do that.

Oh, okay, it's not the great. It's not a Jenny. He's not a dirty work guy. No, he's not. If Jennings was in there, it's like, oh, okay, that makes a ton of sense. That's their dirty work guy. But the fact that they're having their star yak guy, and he's setting picks on D-Ns and plays out in space.

That's how you get Trent Williams pulling. And that's just an awesome counter. This is what the Falcons do really well. They'll hit this play as well. But they have guys insert name here doing it. You know, like they have, they don't have, they have Drake London do it a couple times, but they have other guys doing it. So that's what's really cool.

You remember that this is the Shanahan run game. But the other thing was, Brock Purdy didn't hit the Nick Mullen's first start numbers. Nick Mullins and his first start, 16 to 22, 262, three touchdowns against the Raiders. So didn't hit Mullen's numbers. I'm glad you brought this up, okay? Because I think it's important to bring context to this before we move on. Brock Purdy, I do not. I think that Jimmy Garoppolo is important to the level of success we've seen from the

Niners passing game over the last three or four years. I mean, there are people online talking to me about this today and I wanted to bring it up. I don't think that this is a quarterback-free offense. I don't think you can just drop in anybody you want to and have the Niners put forth the same sort of success they've had with Jimmy Garoppolo. That would be an insane thing to think. Jimmy Garoppel has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league with Kyle Shanahan.

But how much better they make the quarterbacks that you drop in here? The fact that Nick Mullins is 33rd in EPA per dropback among pretty much all quarterbacks with 100 attempts over the last three or four years. And he's bounced around between practice squads or whatever. He was a at least average NFL quarterback within this offense. And I think that Brock Purdy can be better than Nick Mullins was. And I also think that this is the best set of weapons. The 49ers have ever had. The Niners offense has never had this amount of threats in the passing game. Think about that McCaffrey touchdown. That McCaffrey touchdown is on the table because it's Christian McCaffrey.

And what they can do with those five guys out in the route changes because Christian McCaffrey is there. And I do think that the set of weapons they now have is even more prone to lift up their quarterback. Jimmy Garoplo was putting together the best statistical season, according to advanced numbers that he had ever had under Kyle Shanahan this year. So I think it's reasonable to conclude that Brock Purdy can be the best other quarterback that we have ever seen within this Niners ecosystem since Kyle Shanahan got there.

Does that change with Debo Samuel missing time? Perhaps. But it's a high ankle sprain. They have pretty much already won the division. Our Austin Mox says they have a 94% chance to win the NFC West after that Seahawks lost today. So if Debo can get back by the playoffs and their full strength or something close to full strength with all of those weapons, I still think that they're dangerous even with Brock Purdy just because of how much faith I have in the past catchers and how much faith I have in the guy pulling the trigger. Absolutely.

And by that, I mean, Kyle Shanahan, not the quarterback. Yeah. Yes, the puppet master. The, though, that's the thing. This defense is insane. And it's not like this. And that goes without saying, yes. And it's not like you watch this defense and you go, oh, well, you run on them.

So if you control the clock and you know, it's like, no, the defense shred anybody, especially if you have the poor O line. So that's like, so you take that worry out. And then Purdy does actually, you know, the O'line's not great, but you still have a a Shanahan run game. They don't tap into the play. action as much as they haven't before. Like, that's the other thing.

There's a little uptick with Purdy. I'm trying to find this right now. But there's a little uptick with Purdy, but if they look, okay, right here, this was the lowest percentage that Jimmy G. has used play action was this season. So if it's just true media stats, 29% of his early down plays play action. So usually it's about 40. What is that ranking the league?

That's about league average. It's so about league average. A little bit above. but usually he was his career percentage, including this year, is 37%. So there's a down tick. Purdy so far is only used about 29% play action. They're not just going easy button, easy button, easy button for him. They're still doing the dropback stuff that this 49ers offense has tweaked into and they still have that room.

I think the easy button stuff is the five guys out in the route stuff. That's the easy button stuff within this office. You know what's the hardest shit to defend on defense? Is that? When all five guys are valid weapons, that is impossible to defend. It's a motion offense except in football. Like, that's the thing. Play action, the downside of play action is sometimes you only get two guys out in routes and plus the checkdown.

So we'll call it two and a half guys. Or it's a half field to read. Five guys with empty makes every part of the offense available or the field available for the offense to attack. That is so much harder. That's why I talk about and why I even brought up that hurts my homes, the true dropback percentage. That's why a true dropback offense that you can do well is the hardest thing because you always have to defend every area. You can't just go, well, we'll just run cover two over here. We'll cloud this side.

They can't throw it over there. That's why it's so tough. But the fact that the foreigners can tap into that now is really, really scary. And that's why I think that this is the best situation this offense has been in independent of who the quarterback is. I think the ceiling is obviously higher with Jimmy Garoppel. But I also think the expectation should be higher with whoever you drop in there. If it happens to be back pretty, it's Brock Purdy. Yeah.

And it goes beyond floor, though. Yeah, right. I'm trying to think a good way to put it. It's the multiplier. The multiplier. is higher than it has ever been within the Niners offense, right? So if you're looking at, that's what this is. And you make, it's the multiplier you put on the quarterback. That's what this is. It's not that you get the same level of results no matter who the quarterback is. It's that if you

put Jimmy Garoppolo in the Shanahan offense compared to anything else, he's one point seven times better than he would be with any other play caller. So Brock Purdy within this offense is one point seven times better than he's going to be. And maybe that number was 1.3 in a world where Brandon Ayuk wasn't like a star level player. They didn't have Christian McCaffrey, all of these other considerations that weren't in place over the last few years. That's how I feel about it.

In high school, in high school football, if you're a private school, in Illinois is how it is at least. If you're a private school, you have a multiplier for your student body in order to like determine what division that you're in. So that's kind of what it feels like now is that they have a multiplier for the Niners offense because of Kyle Shannon. That's funny. Yeah, it's like an RPG.

They got this Shanahan shield that like increases everything. I love that. You go with the Illinois high school, high school football and I'm with like a Zelda reference or something like that. It sounds right. That's where we're both right. So the Debo, Debo injury definitely something to take into consideration here.

Because hopefully this is just a three or four weeks thing. I hope they shut them down. If this is really, if it's 94%, they have been, 94% just shut them down. Because with these high ankles, that's the biggest concern is that they, linger and he's a shell of himself. That's the last thing that we want. So hopefully he can get back healthy and we can see what these guys do. The last thing I wanted to say, the I yuk touchdown, I can't remember if it was on the

same drive, but it was in the same half. They hit a deep curl to him earlier on that, believe the same drive. And then the touchdown is he fakes the deep curl and then runs the double him for touchdown. It's like, I fucking love caution. Dude. The CMC touchdown is a sluggo, like they're running goes and sluggos on the outside. just, I mean, because that's what Logan Ryan thought it was going to be a sluggo. He sat there playing or he thought it was going to be a slant.

Yeah, he sat there playing the inbreaker, knew it was coming. And instead it's like, it was almost like a fake sluggo. He like barely moved inside before he ran the go. And that's all he had to do. It was just selling the stutter step. Then it was like, that's all they needed. All right. Next one.

Detroit Lions and your playoff odds. You have my attention. What a game. It was a fun game. So there's, a lot to dig into with this game because I was actually very impressed with the Vikings on offense. Yeah. Like I, well, we can talk about that in a second. I was blown away by some of the plays that they made offensively.

But the Vikings again, or excuse me, the Lions again, come up with a big win. Yeah. Our Austin Mock at the athletic has them with a 36% chance to make the playoffs now. And if you're stacking it up right now, I mean, they just beat the Vikings by two scores in a game that they were favored. How many teams in the NFC are definitively better than the Lions right now today? Three. That's probably right. I say three.

Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers. Yeah, who else would it be? Right. And then you get to, now you get to the other realm. Box, Washington, the Giants, the Seahawks, all these other teams that are in the playoffs or on the brink of making the playoffs. The Lions are favorite against all of those teams right now, I think. Yeah. If they're favorite on the Vikings, they're favorite on those teams, I think.

You know, that's at least neutral if it's minus two and a half. But no, it's, they're playing really, really good football right now. Like, the fact that they're getting a pass rush now on defense, that's huge. That's huge for this team, just so they can just get off the field. And Hutchinson ruined that drive. I mean, he forced the field goal to back to back plays by himself on that drive in the second half. He got a sack against Brian O'Neill with like a nasty little move.

and then they sent him on a stunt on the next play. That's a good player. That's not some beating up on some Spencer Brown or something like that. And that's what you're seeing is that, okay, you're getting that sort of play out of eight Hudson when he was kind of a zero for the first month of the season. Rookie happens with whatever. Yeah. I can never remember his name Houston.

Like their situational pass rushers that they have right now that just came back. That was out for most of the year. That guy has like crazy bend. He's made some real place. What's his name? What's his name? place. 50 something.

Where is he? Stand by. This is good. James Houston. James Houston. James Houston. He has made some real place. I have been very impressed with some of the stuff that he has done.

Malcolm Rodriguez had a great play today on a fourth and short. They've gotten a decent amount out of. One of the hard dogs hype guys that actually lives up to his billing. He's actually a good player. Like that's the thing. Most of those guys are like all fun stories and then you realize why they're a fun story. It's what he's actually like a good player. They got Jerry Jacobs back.

I loved Jerry Jacobs last year. Street Free Agent was really flashed for them last season. He was hurt for a huge chunk of this year. He's back now. So this defense has definitely been lifted, even though the Vikings played fantastic on offense today, if you look at the numbers. So the defense has been better to a point where they're now functional

and they don't just get rolled over for most of these games. They're able to make a stop here and there, I guess is what I would say. That is very important. The offense today, Jared Gough had the second highest EPA per dropback in the league today. He was 27 to 39 for 330 yards and three touchdowns. And it felt like that. And then the little edges they created for themselves today, that fake punt swings the game. It's fourth and seven.

Inside their own 30. It's fourth and seven inside their own 30. They're up 14 to 7 with 13 minutes left in the third quarter. Yep. And they run a fake punt and go down and score a touchdown to make it 21 to 7. That's playing to win and not not to lose. I love it. I absolutely love it.

I loved it so much. That's the thing why they do. Dan Campbell's been tremendously aggressive on Fortdown. Like the Patriots game. Most aggressive Fortdown team in the NFL. Okay. It's just every game. It doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter how the game script's going. The Patriots game where they were getting their teeth kicked in. I think they went for it on Fortown like, five or six times. Like he's sticking to it. That's what you're supposed to do when you go front and forth down. You're not supposed to have it and flow. You're supposed to stick to it because over time.

It's a good thing. They went forward on their first drive of the game, say, I believe. And they had on a 40-yard line. They didn't get it. And guess what? They don't give a shit. And they're still doing a fake pot. And it's coming out in the second half.

It's awesome. But they are doing, this is what getting these receivers back to is, of course, the offensive line's awesome. They had a couple of run games so much fun, like week and week out. It's just they, what they did to the Jaguars last week or a couple weeks ago. last week, last week, whatever week it was.

Last week was a snuff film. Like it was actually, it was Jonah Jackson and and Ragnow were pushing this poor defense tackle like three gaps over. It was bad. But it was, that's what this line's offensive lines can keep in so many games because they're going to keep the pocket clean.

And then now you've got receivers making plays. Now I'm on Ross St. Brown, who is, I mean, just such a good player. But DJ Chark, they're running 989 to DJ Chark. that 989 I always say this that is we have a better players than you do kind of play and that's what it looked like today when they have DJ shark dunk it on guys the Jameson Williams TD was great design we talk about the the play action stuff the basic play action concept is an over in a post as a two man concept typical hard heavy play actions a two man concept so they what all they did was just that they overstop you see the Rams used to do us a ton with

cup, but over and stop right at the hash and then mess with the Vikings rules. Because the safety just drives down on it. It's right in front of him. He almost has no choice. He has to because otherwise you're hitting over and he's in no man's land and it's a 20 yard game right in front of his face. And then the coach is going, what the hell are you doing there? And but because the stop, Josh Reynolds's stop comes right on the hitch or right on the hash,

Patrick Peterson can't slingshot to the post. So it's just a double, oh, it's just great design. That was such a good change up. When I talk about changeups, that was one of the perfect kind of changeups. And it goes for a touchdown, not like a seven-yard gain that I go Gaga over. So it's, it's, they can do stuff like that. They're getting, their personnel usage is really cool. They, like, it gets a Giants there in 21 personnel or pony personnel, like 20-something times.

They went away for it for two weeks. And then this game, they tap back into it because the Vikings have some weaknesses against that. So Ben Johnson's doing an awesome job. The offensive line does a great job. And Geragov's playing good football. It's a really fun unit with, and we haven't talked about the school catch. I want to say there was a motion on the Williams touchdown that, oh, excuse me, that's not what it was. It was a play action fake and the other safety is in the run fit flies down.

Yeah. So it's, which that really clears up the picture, right? So golf is now sitting there. He knows it single height. He's just reading the safety. He's flying down. He only has one guy to read and it's an easy touchdown. I was like, I wonder the other safety flew down and I couldn't remember why.

Then you can tell you goes, oh shit, because he didn't. didn't know who to cover. He was like, oh, dang it was just sit there. It was rough. It's like a dog on his own tail. There was,

there were two more plays that I just play design outside of the school catch that I think were beautiful. There was a, well, few. They handed the ball off to Amara St. Brown on a third one with him offset in the backfield, which was gorgeous. Yep.

They, it was just the timing that they have on some of the stuff in the spacing. They just are clearly so well coached. He had one where it's just like a little zone beater where he almost like runs a wheel and then cuts it back underneath against zone coverage that's just like perfectly spaced it's a little high low that he hit st brown on again and then the touchdown to reynolds is just gorgeous it's like a big so reynolds is in the slot on the right they run a big fake toss and all jared golf has to do is turn around and reynolds is just running like a quick in breaker

that's it and it's easy touchdown yep and they're the best red zone team in the league they're the designs red zone efficiency in the nfl yes and you was state we're see stuff like that that's just easy and it's not surprising. So you get a couple goal balls, a couple chunk in breakers off play action, a couple high leverage little designers that they had. And you have that sort of impact and that sort of results that you saw today. And then they ran a 340 pound right tackle in motion and threw him the ball to seal the game. It was awesome. It was I went nuts when I saw it because I had on my game or my Sunday ticket on my Xbox. And so it hit before Red Zone channel showed it.

So I was just going nuts. I'm like, oh, I cannot wait to see Twitter right now because I know how many, we all have the Red Zone channel on. And oh my God. But that again, we're talking about their Red Zone designs are awesome because their run game in the Red Zone is always really unique, really unique way to go. I speak and write English for a living. And so they like, so every week, their run game is always great.

Their play action stuff in the Red Zone. How many like wide open tight end touchdowns you'll see in the Red Zone? shows good design. Their short yard stuff's really good. But then that Sewell catch was so awesome is the Lions have used jumbo personnel at a top 10 rate. So six offensive alignment and some configuration in the entire NFL, they're in the top 10. So on that drive, that was the third time in a row that they were in 11 jumbo. Soos was the extra tight end, but then they had three wide receivers.

And then they went 11 jumbo run. I think it won't for no yards. 11 jumbo run, like two yards or three yards. And then they did it again. Same motion, same everything. Play action passes, Sewell, who's 340 pounds and runs like he's about 220, like, and sticky hands. That dude is 22 years old, and he's playing like a- He's going to be insane. He's already one of the best office in the wake.

I vote him for first team all pro right now. Like, like I wouldn't, at least second team, but he's on there. And he's 22. He just turned 22 in October. And that was such a fun knuckleball. And it was just, it was awesome. It was so sweet. It was so, so cool.

So all of this gushing about the lions, the Vikings are in this game. Yeah. I mean, the Vikings got some bad breaks in this game. Okay. They get stuffed on a fourth and one on their first drive. The Dalvin Cook fumble on the pop pass inside the five, that's a game swinging play. Yeah. That happens there.

They had a. Whoever designed, that one must have been so sick. They just must have been like, no, no. Early in the second quarter, third and nine, Hawkinson drops a ball. on the right side line. Okay. There's another third down catch, I believe, late in the first half, early in the second half, where he hits Justin Jefferson and Jefferson rolls back in front of the

sticks. So it's fourth and one and they have to punt. The Vikings in this game were fantastic offensively. This is one of the better games I think I've ever seen Kirk Cousins play. He was on fire. He had five or six throws in this game where I was like, holy shit. I mean, just absolutely, I'm trying to find them in my notes. I mean, just ripping balls left and right.

He had a third and six bullet to Justin Jefferson against man coverage that was on the same drive as a dime to T.J. Hawkinson on third down on a corner route. He followed that with like a laser to Jefferson on a little corner route down near the line. You can just keep saying Jefferson. He went for 223. He was unbelievable. I mean, he was absolutely unbelievable. The cousin's Jefferson connection in this game was insanely good.

And they lost because of a couple key moments. The Lions playing fantastic offensively. The Lions creating a couple edges in this game by going forward on Fort Down, whatever. And I think the key thing to take into account as we think about the Vikings and moving forward especially, 29% rushing success rates since they're by. And they were very bad on the ground again today. It's been bad. It's been really bad

So they Let me Curious what the actual numbers were Because I mean they They're especially out of 11 20 yards rushing in this game They've been so porous out of 11 person hour on Which which was supposed to be the breadwin

13 For 23 15 carries for 23 yards of Dalvin Cook today Yeah And so since their by they've had one of the long of five yards 29th and rushing success rate Since the buy They are 32nd in the percentage of their rushes

That have gone for zero or negative yardage since their by that hat tipped Alex Alex Lewis who covers the Vikings for us. He tweeted out something similar and made me look at it. So that is the one thing where if you're looking at a real weakness for what they were offensively today, that's it. Cousins and Jefferson were fantastic. That Jefferson play where they end up scoring to cut it to one score a game. Jefferson was in bounce. That should have been like a 50-yard touchdown by him, an insane catch on that second down.

So those two were fantastic today, but still not enough to keep pace with a alliance team that is really rolling right now. Yeah, and that's what having, I mean, like you said, the Hockinson had the drop. And Theon had some kind of good plays, but also kind of had some like, like, frustrating plays a little bit. But that's the thing with Justin Jefferson. That one play that you brought up the third down that he rolled in front of the sticks, the route he put on Akuta on that play. It was like, I haven't saved. I haven't tweeted yet because I didn't want people going like, oh, it was short because it was so, it was a disgusting route. But you just basically breaks him off twice on it.

But that's the thing. is like that's the extent of the offense is that you're you're of course you're living and dying with Justin Jefferson and some cool red zone designs but it's like as far as easy buttons and this offense the easy buttons is supposed to be the run game and they haven't fixed it they haven't found I thought they'd maybe against the Patriots especially they're getting to some of those 12 personnel stuff and some no huddle some hanging huddle kind of stuff and I was like okay this is making it easier on yourselves but it's kind of weekly they just are not getting to it like what I was hoping to get to after, especially after the Hawkins

trade. All right. So let's talk about how this game and some of the other results today affect the NFC playoff picture. So we just said that the lions now have like a third, like a 33% chance essentially to make the playoffs after that win today. Bet them last week. Make the playoffs.

Seahawks after losing to Carolina today. Of course they do. They are out of the playoffs right now. Seattle is as the things currently stand because Washington was on a buy even with the Giants loss. Austin still has them with a 64.5% chance to make the. postseason, even at 7 and 6. Their remaining schedule at the Niners,

at the Chiefs, Jets, Rams. I don't know, man. That seems like a pretty brutal stretch. That's really rough. So the Lions next week play the Jets. At the Jets. If the Lions beat the Jets and the Seahawks lose to the Niners, seems more than reasonable, and they're both sitting at 7 and 7,

then we got Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay for the Lions. Chiefs, Jets, Rams for the Seahawks. That's a little... It's pretty tough. And then you'd assume that Washington or the Giants, one of them needs knocked out because they play each other next week. So I think the Lions have like a real shot at this with the way that they're playing right now. I think so too.

They just feel so complete. Like, even if... I don't know. I like how they're sitting right now. So the Lions go Jets. I mean... That Jets game is... that's it.

If they win that Jets game, I think they probably get in at this stage. I think they probably get in if they win that. I think it's an AFC game. So kind of like all the tiebreaker stuff. So kind of like is not as as heavy. But yeah, no, it's that's a, that's a awesome game.

Like Lions Jets is going to have a super sweet game though to have circled. But I, I'm really liking what the Lions team's doing. I mean, honestly, like I feel so much better about them than like, like I said, I think I have them as a fourth probably best. I'm a team right now. That's how I just kind of like feel about them.

Like fourth? Yeah, fourth. And that's, they deserve to play in the play. They're playing playoff ball right now. We talk about a moon game. Is it? Yeah,

that's brutal. It's a noon game. We got to do something about this. Somebody's got to step in here from the league. Just a second Sunday night game. I don't support that. Get Chris Berman going. Get him on color commentary.

You do a second Sunday night game or Monday night. So the Seahawks, you know, lose a couple here with the lions going on a run. they fall out of the playoffs, but independent of the long-term outlook, not a great day today. No. I mean, so Seattle just gets absolutely run on this entire game. They, the Panthers faced eight men in the box on 54% of their carries today, which is one of the highest rates in the league. They still had a 54% rushing success rate, which is the fourth highest of the week and the fourth highest EPA per rush of any team in the league this week, despite the Seahawks being like, we're going to put a ton of bodies in the box.

You guys were hurt, Al Woods. Obviously, that stuff matters, but still think a really important data point for the Seahawks defense to not be able to slow down in Carolina in this game when all they wanted to do was run the ball. And then if Gino makes one or two mistakes like he did today, they just aren't set up and aren't as complete as they need to be to overcome something like that. Yeah. And I've been really liking what the Seahawks offense is doing and how Gino's playing, of course. And really, it's real. Like I want to assure people what Gino's doing is very, very real. But that defense, and I've noticed this with some other kind of Fangio defensive, like DNA, which is Seahawks have been doing a little bit, is that especially when you get into heavier personnel is 21 or 12 is you can just pound the frickin' rock on them.

They just got exposed against the Raiders a couple of weeks ago against the Seahawks defense. But same right now. The Seahawks defense are bottom 10 and success rate against a run. And 25th and overall success rate against bullyball against 2112, pro personnel. And 24th is that Raiders defense that we've kind of people have been like, they're not great. That's what the Seahawks defense that kind of is happening to them. So as much as it's for them to feel good about a playoff team, they have to figure this out.

But the last couple weeks, they have it. They had a nice month and then the film gets put back out. Okay, those were your adjustments. Okay, now we're going to adjust to those adjustments. And can they take that next step? I do think this offense is playoff caliber, but the defense is just kind of holding back. I think I'd rather see the lions in there. I just, I just, I would do it. I, that's where I'm at right now.

So I would too. We'll see what happens over the last couple of weeks. I want the best teams of the playoffs and the lions deserve to be in there. They are playing playoff football. That's my, my summary. So one more team in the NFC playoff race. I'm going to talk about real quick, weird game for the Cowboys today. Yeah.

And they end up pulling it out against the Texans. I went back and rewatched a good chunk of this. And it did feel like one of those games where just everything goes wrong. That's huge muff punt. Kelvin Joseph allows a huge, completion to Chris Morda on the sideline, tipped ball interception from Dack

that went through Noah Brown's hands. Dalton Schultz drops a touchdown that forces them to kick a field goal. They're stuffed on fourth and goal. Terrence Steele goes down in this game and Dak gets sack fumbled almost immediately by Josh Ball. And then the pressure that Dak threw

from his own end zone was again around the right tackle after they lost Terrence Steele. So I still feel just fine about the Cowboys. I think that if they lose steel for any stretch of time, that's huge, even with potentially, you know, what the left side of their offensive line can look like with Tyrone Smith, losing their starting right tackle at this stage of the proceedings would be a huge deal. And not having Anthony Brown, if that ends up becoming any sort of long-term thing, Kelvin Joseph is not ready for prime time.

And I think that we've realized that. No, I nailed on the head that the Terrence Steel injury is pretty scary for them, especially like how he was playing. I mean, he had a couple of really nice blocks today, too. But like this defense really felt like they were sleepwalking, especially in the first half. They were okay just not hitting their gaps and not tackling. This defense is you can run on this Cowboys defense. They have been good, but you can get after him if you just hit them right. Because they could sometimes, you know, Demarcus Lawrence has been outstanding this year.

He'll go rogue. He has a lot of better bees. You know, you better be right. And we saw a couple times today. There's a third and two in the red zone that before the Texans first touchdown, Pierce converts on it. There's nobody in the B gap. because two guys just went rogue on it. You saw a couple times today.

This is why Jeff Driscoe was playing, is that zone runs or sorry, zone re type plays, you can get the Cowboys defense a little bit because they're so hair on fire. We're going to find the ball, get the ball, get the ball, get the ball, like dog chasing a car.

And I think that happened a couple times today was where Driscoe got a couple nice runs on them. They're not, I think historically I looked it up, like the Cowboys are decent against defending the run, but that just kind of speaks to the gap soundness. And the Texans had a couple, like the way to extended play touchdown to Marry Rogers, the go ball to and Nico Collins. It's kind of like, okay, you know, you just kind of have to live with that.

Usually our offense is going to sustain. The offense is still a nine explosive plays. Their success rate was almost at 50%. There's still devastating running the ball. It was just some of those, you know, bad plays that kind of the fourth and one, the fourth in goal. The Cowboys are a top five team in power success rate. So it's like, that's just, it happens.

but they're still really good at it. They got one later because Dack was like a monster on it. But the Terrence Steel injury is going to be something of a concern, but still feel pretty good about the Cowboys. So Jason Peters went in there late in that game. And by all accounts, it sounds like he played better than Josh Ball did. And we'll see if he's the answer for them at right tackle,

which if Jason Peters can just go in and play right tackle and be serviceable for them, it's nice. Put one more notch on his Hall of Fame plaque, my friend. That is pretty damn impressive at this age. switching sides after playing left tackle your entire life. A little different than stepping in for the 2021 Chicago Bears. The 2020 Chicago Bears were a great team and I don't want to hear about that. All right.

We're going to take one more quick break and then we're going to dig into the AFC playoff picture before we get out of here. All right. So let's take through the AFC playoff picture here a little bit, some of the really important outcomes from today. After losing to the bills today, the Jets are now out of the AFC playoffs as it currently stands. Austin Mock has them with a 35.6% chance to make the playoffs. So if they lose to Detroit next week, this is a bad situation. I had two,

maybe three takeaways from this game after rewatching it. First, Mike White is an unbelievably tough dude. Oh my God. Unbelievably tough. I don't think I can remember a straight-on quarterback shot as hard as the one he took and came back from. He looked like a seat. He got folded in half. Yeah. Yeah. It was bad.

Straight on. Headed steam. Like clean hit too. Those are the worst ones. Everyone always thinks blind side hits are the worst. No. Straight on Helmand and sternum are the worst. Oh, that had hurt so bad.

I mean, he comes back, which is absolutely remarkable. and I actually thought that Mike White was pretty impressive for stretches today. He made a handful of throws where I was like, man, like that guy can really rip it. And several that kind of make you sat up in your chair. And if he doesn't go out in that situation, so he goes out after that hit. And I believe Mike Remmers came in at right tackle on the exact same play for George Fan. Immediately after that happens, Joe Flack. get strip sacked in Jets,

in Jets territory and gives the bills the ball back. And if that doesn't happen, this game was already pretty close. And I think it gets a lot closer because one of my other takeaways from this game is, I'm worried about the Bill's offense a little bit. Like, I think the Jets are a bad matchup for them. The Jets are better for them up front.

Quinn and Williams had a disgusting like bullpull sack today before he got hurt. It was just absolutely nasty. And, you know, Bryce Huff had a couple nice moments again as a pass rusher. but they didn't have consistent offense again against this Jets defense. They had one chunk completion to Stefan Diggs. And other than that, it was a lot of Josh Allen scrambles, especially in high leverage situations.

That's really all they could rely on. I mean, he finished this game with 147 passing yards and 47 rushing yards. Yeah. And that's just not a good recipe, man. Nope. That's how you always know they're struggling. It's how many design rushes, this Josh Allen. half. Like that's how you know the game script is going for the bills. And it's, it's a team,

this bill's team, it's kind of, there's so much that we talk about the offense, but we got, again, appreciate what this defense does. They, you know, their fourth and DVOA, top 10 EPA for play. They have Trey Whiteback, even though they lost Vaughn Miller. It's like they, it's so funny with these teams. It's just as you feel good about them. Somebody gets hurt. Just always something like that. But I'm watching this bill. Russo had a couple nice moments today. As you talk about guys stepping up, he had a couple big moments today. And, but like you watch his team and you get Including that force fumble.

You talk about these Sorry for me I'm just thinking of Spencer Brown Because you watch this Bill's team And you're like I can't feel good about an offense That has a right tackle That's literally every play

You don't know what you're getting You don't know how clean it's going to be And that's why going into this week I had the stat like post-by And before the buy Or maybe the last six weeks was Josh Allen is Attempts outside the pocket

And attempts are taking three seconds or longer is basically doubled And you can probably chalk that up to him just going, I don't trust anything that's going on here. Third and 15, he looked to scramble. And it's like, yes, Josh Allen's scrambling is one of the most devastating things in the game. Him out of empty is really devastating. But it's kind of like they're running out of tricks in their bag a little bit. Like they'll run mesh and then they love running mesh return, which is the crossers fake like they're running towards each other.

And then they return back. They love doing it with Stefan Dix. It's how they got that big chunk today, I think. It is. later in the game, they did normal mesh, and Stefan Diggs fake the fake mesh, you know, mesh return. He kind of like stopped like he was going to go back and they kept going across. And I think Josh Allen had to scramble on the play.

But then it's like, if you're running fake return, like all you got is that. Like I don't know what else they got in their back. Like what else, it feels like all their like little short stuff to the outs like that they used to just pepper all the time or just not there. Their teams are clouding that side. Especially against this team. Oh, yeah. I mean, they're smoking them. It was, they couldn't get anything going.

The bills at the end, it seemed like they're okay running out the clock. In the second half, 20% of their snaps are in jumbo personnel. That is not the attacking bills. I, I've talked about I want this bills team to adjust. And I think they have some throughout this season, try to be more sustainable without just, hey, Josh Allen, be Josh Allen. But it's like, it seemed like this game was like, let's just get out of this. Like, it's not going well. So early in the, early in the third quarter, middle of third quarter, like jumbo, jumbo,

let's just get these three, four yards. They had a couple of nice runs. But to me, it's just kind of like there's one of those who are like, this isn't going well. Let's get out here with a win. And that's different than really how this Bill's offense, especially this Bill's team, felt maybe the first six weeks of the season. If the Jets missed the playoffs, it's a huge bummer for Jets fans that we're really hoping the drought would end. And the other reason it's a huge bummer is that I'm bullish on the core of players that the Jets have assembled. You look at their early round picks that they've had and what those guys are going to be.

Sauce is obviously a hit. Quentin Williams, a breakout season. He's played fantastic. They have other young pieces. Garrett Wilson just, that guy's real. He just plays and moves differently. That guy is going to be a star. I have no questions about that.

The offensive line will be healthier, hopefully moving forward compared to what it's been like this year as they've had to rotate guys in and out the entire season. The offense, hopefully, we'll see what happens to quarterback. They'll get better, more consistent quarterback play moving forward. You would hope than they have gotten over the last couple of years and with Mike White and hurt again, they haven't been able to rely on that position.

Defensively, even if you're thrilled about Quinn and Williams and Soss and some of the younger pass rushes that they have, it's never going to look like this group again. And when you have a unit that's so fun and so good and kind of sneaks up on you, you hope that you kind of catch that lightning in a bottle and can ride it pretty far. And if that doesn't happen, that's where the letdown comes. Because I'm sure they'll be fine. Saul was a really good coach. a lot of really good talent.

But for example, Quincy Williams is a free agent, okay? Sheldon Rankin's is a free agent. He's been really good for them as a rotational guy this year. Lamarcus Joyner is a free agent. They will probably be able to replace those guys, and I'm sure they will be fine. But defense is weird. It is. You're never guaranteed to catch that the way that you did for one or two years.

You don't know who boosts, who else? You do, but you don't. It's all bets. You're like, oh, this guy's 80% as good. And maybe you can do that same role. And it turns out, shit, he's like 30% as good. And he can't do that same role. You never know on defense.

And so that's why it's frustrating. You have this sort of defensive year where you're a borderline top five unit and you have these young guys coming on. It's never as simple as, well, we did this this year. So we're going to build on that and just continue to get better. But I think that it's hard to come away from this season, even with that in mind, not being enthusiastic about where the Jets are and how they've built this thing. So see what happens if they do make the playoffs.

but if they fall short, I imagine how brutal that would be as a Jets fan. Yeah, because the door is more open, I think, that I think a lot of us realize, especially in this AFC. And I don't know, this defense is really fun. It's a fun team. You brought up Garrett Wilson. They just have a lot of fun players. And yeah, no, I agree.

It is kind of lightning in the ball with these defenses, so you hope there's not as much drop off. All right. Jags beat the Titans today, 36 to 22. What is the hell of a game by Trevor Lawrence? Oh, yeah. I mean, just a hell of a game by Trevor Lawrence. We talked about Justin Herbert earlier today. Similar kind of idea with Lawrence maneuvering and manipulating the pocket at his size.

And the ability to do that and make those kind of out of structure plays when you're 6-6. Yeah. There just aren't that many guys we've ever seen who can do it like those two guys can do it. And when he's making those plays and just having that creative playmaking aspect to his game, it feels like the sky's the limit a little bit. Yeah, he's, uh, I got a lot of stock. I'm sitting on. So I'm hoping this works out by throne of Trevor Lawrence stock.

But it's watching today, it was cool. He's getting a little edge to him. Yeah. He's getting a little. I like that. I do. I like that because that's not really how he's wired. No.

So I like seeing that. I know he's competitive because there's always, there's the clip from him in college where he's playing out like the rec gym at Clemson and he like bows up on this like this random student. And it wasn't like in a bad way. I've watched the clip, but it was more like he's competitive as shit. Like a lot of these psycho quarterbacks are. So it's awesome.

But I mean, the creativity is always what's good. Like that's what we've talked about him. It's like, okay, is he more like Mr. Efficient, do, do, do, do, do, do. Or can he extend a play? He is a good athlete and he is so twitchy. The touchdown run was so awesome. The zone read, because that place should have been dead in the water. And he stiff arms a guy and leaves for the touchdown and gets up, fired up.

Even before that, he had the extended play on third down. where he's going up and out of the pocket, throwing to his left and putting the ball outside, catch a ball on the outside. It's like, oh, baby. And David Ingram touched him at the end. He signals a double move. He gave the double move on that play before the snap. So he's playing with confidence where he's going for daggers right now.

It's like, hell yeah. This guy's awesome, man. He's such a good quarterback. Anyone that's like a hater on him right now, it's like, he has, there's no potential to be. This guy is legitimately a top eightish quarterback right now. which is really fun when they can really shore up and they're not putting so many targets to Zay Jones

and everything grim and they get more talent around them. It's funny that early in the season, it kind of seemed like the Jaggs were on pace to beat the best team in the AFC South. Yeah, we got excited. Things changed. Yes. And, you know, their defense,

there are a bunch of turnovers today that they rode to winning this game and also Trevor Lauren is playing well. The defense has been a disaster. I mean, you called the game against the lines, you called it a snuff film, and it's exactly the right way to characterize it. So this Jaguars team isn't the Jaguars team we thought we were going to be watching in week three.

But when you watch the final outcome today and you think about the direction that the Titans are going, I think we may have reached a point, however winding the road that the Jags might be the best team in the AFC South. But it's a little too little to wait. I know. It's like they have a better. They're even a point differential, which is better than the Vikings. Like it's just like, oh. Yeah, their point differential is zero. They are at zero.

They were the only team in the AFC South that doesn't have a negative point differential. Are the Jacksonville Jaguars. That's so unbelievable. I mean, there's so many games that they pissed away where they just did something stupid. The record in one-score games is horrendous. It's horrendous. It's what I think might be the worst in the league in terms of the one-score games they've lost. I know.

It's the cardiac cats. That's what they just want to be. Now it's kind of flipping the other way, especially that Ravens game, that fourth quarter there. Like, okay, maybe some of these are going ahead. This was, them adjusting in this game was really good. Like they, yes, turnover, turnovers help. But it's also they, at first, after I was watching that first quarter, I was like, Derek Henry might run for what's Adrian Pearson's record?

You know, or what's, what's the record again for yards in a game? Because he might run for $2.50 on this game against this Jaguar's defense. But they adjusted and they got the turnovers and they did enough against the pass. But if you have a quarterback, a young quarterback playing this confidently this well, you're going to be in every game. So that's actually kind of frustrating that we might not see this team in the playoffs because that point differential kind of shows that this team is playing the best ball in that division easily.

Yeah. I mean, the record one score games is very telling. I'm trying to find that odds right now. I believe they have like a 10% chance to win the division. I think that's right. And yeah, it's probably not going to happen. But with this, it's about what do things look like next year, you know, and about what direction are you headed, especially on offense.

And I think the direction is firmly going positively. I, the Titans is really does feel like one of those years where they win the division, they host the playoff game, they're heavy on, I guess it'll depend on who they play, right? Right. So right now they would play, they play the Bengals. Yeah. I mean, the Titans are, yeah, the Titans are a better, the Bengals are a much better football team than the Titans. So they will be, I think, a fairly heavy underdog if they were to play a Cincinnati team in the first round of the playoffs.

And that's if the Bengals don't make the play out, or don't make the win the division. Right. Because we'll see what happens there. So let's talk about that Bengals team. But if we could get a Barnberger, Week 18, Titans Jaguars game, if the stars aligned. So that could be actually a really fun week 18 matchup. That seems far off. I would love to see that.

I mean, it'd be better than those Thursday night mustard uniform games that we watched when they did the color rush and like just the salt on their eyes. We get Jets Jags on a Thursday night. We get Jets Jags Thursday night, Thursday, December 22nd. We'll see if a couple days before Christmas, if we want to do. a live reaction to that one. That could be a good one. I'll probably be down.

I got nothing better to do. I know that about myself. All right. Before we get out of here, let's talk about that Bengals team. They beat the Browns today. Ravens, we're going to talk about the Monday hangover tomorrow.

I just, I don't have the Anthony Brown patience right now. It's talk about third quarterbacks. It's very late. Sando and I will talk about the Ravens. They pull that one out in ugly fashion. That's all they have to do right now with Lamar out. Bengals beat the Browns today,

23 to 13, excuse me, 23 to 10. It seemed like they did enough. I mean, T. Higgins misses most of this game. Tyler Boyd and Jemar Chase comes back has a huge presence in their offense. Defense was fantastic against the run. And one of those, I want to go back and actually watch the tape and see if this number is right

because it was kind of surprising when I saw it. We talked on Thursday about how heavy of boxes they were playing against the Browns. It says that they were only using. heavy boxes like 43% of the time compared to like 80% or 73% in their previous matchups with Cleveland. So I'm wondering if that's actually right or if that's a true media quirk. Maybe the formation is changing for the Browns. Something like that.

And they had a 73% rushing success rate today even with using those later boxes against the Browns. So the defense was fantastic and what they needed to do. And then the offense does just enough. And Bengals keep on rolling. Make us keep on rolling. That's exactly it. Nick Chubb and Creamhunt had 18 rushes for 40 yards combined today.

That against the Browns. That's how you stop the Browns. They're going to, that's how they're going to live and die. But the Burrow was playing, I mean, touchdown throw out of Chase that Burrow threw was, we're talking about timing and accuracy and like ball placement. Holy shit. Like Chase wasn't ready for it. He had a couple of those.

He had three runs today, two scrambles and a design rush. All on third down, all picked up a first down. Like, Burrough is playing so well right now. I mean, this, I'm going to keep saying this. I'm probably pissing off a lot of fans when I say. The second team all pro voting is going to be very interesting at the end of this year after Patrick Mahomes. But the last thing I want to say is even the flea flicker touchdown, they did it out of shotgun. They're tying it all together.

And I love that about this team. I'm really becoming a huge bagels fan. They're sprinkling more RPO's as well. They did that a little bit. I think they got away from it. They sprinkled a little bit more today. But yeah, no, they find a way to win. They can win ugly.

We talked about when we were starting to get high on the Spangles team, we looked at the remaining schedule, like, whof, that's rough. They're 3 and O so far since we had that segment. Three and O against that tough-ass schedule. And they're playing some of the best football, complete team football, anyone in the league right now.

So Trey Hendrickson broke his wrist in this game. That's worth mentioning. It seems like he's going to miss a few weeks. Okay. That's what Ian Rappell reported. So hopefully, He actually played the entire fourth quarter with a broken wrist, I think. That is.

Which is absolutely insane. That is insane. So he hopefully will be back, because again, I'd love to see this team at full strength. Yeah. I don't talk about the Lions being potentially the fourth best team in the NFC. I think the Bengals are firmly the third best team in the AFC. And you could make an argument that they are right there with the Bills and the Chiefs right now. I would hear that argument and probably not disagree with it.

you wanted to say the Bengals had a real case to be maybe the best team in the AFC as things currently stand. There's no cut off for me anymore. It's not Bill's Chiefs cut off. No, it's a three, it's a three team tier. And I, this team can hang with anybody. There's not, there's not where they have, they're not, I think I said this the other week, and I'm going to repeat it, is that there's no bad matchups for this team.

Like, they're going to be able to find a way to win against any, any matchup that they have the rest of the way. Now, I'm with you. I think it's a three horse race in the AFC right now. between those three teams. All right. That is all we have for tonight. If you guys have not subscribed to our YouTube channel,

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So if it's a good time, we had Baker Mayfield last week. You never know what's going to happen. CMC trade one time. We had, you know, Justin Fields making us sad. The YouTube channel is also where you can watch Nate's wind the clock. So we have a bunch of YouTube specific content that we're doing this year. So please go check that out.

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