The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 15 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: December 18, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 15 DFS slate. They discuss the high-priced players who should be at the center of your lineups, the abundance of $6,000ish receivers who look good this week, love for rookie running backs, and more.Later, Beller runs through the slate from a gambling standpoint, highlighting his favorite picks against the spread. Can the Bills and Packers get off to good starts on Saturday? Can the Patriots bring the Dolphins back down to earth? Who wins and, more importantly, covers in the showdown between the Chiefs and Saints? We get into those games, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Derek on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. It is Week 15. It is Friday, December 18th. We already have one game in the books. We've got two more games on Saturday. We've got a full slate of Sunday. We've got a Monday night game that, you know, you maybe are interested in if you play DFS or gambling with the Steelers 12.5 point favorites against the Bengals. But we're here to talk you through it all on this.

episode. I'm Michael Bellar, joined as always by Derek Van Riper. DBR week 15, man. We are almost at the end of the regular season. How you doing? Doing really well. And as we will talk about throughout this episode, it's like bizarre a week compared to things we would have thought just a few weeks ago. I mean, I think that's one of my favorite things about DFS in general, though, is that things can change so quickly. And for players that you didn't get in your season-long leagues, whether you missed out on draft or auction day or you didn't get to pick them up off the waiver wire, there's always an opportunity to use those players later.

The pool is just so much larger, and that's what makes it so fun. Exactly, man, and we have a pool that has gotten, as you said, strangely deeper, both because of it being this part of the season and because of who we are talking about and the way we were talking about some of these players just a few weeks ago. I want to start this off a little bit differently than what we've typically done. this season. I just went across all the positions and looked at the most expensive players,

because no matter what position the most expensive guys play, you can't have more than two. You can maybe find a way to get two of them in, but two is going to be the max, and even if you get two, you're going to be scrounging at other positions. So the guys who I selected were Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson at quarterback, Derek Henry, Delvin Cook at running back, Tyree Kill, D.K. Metcalf at Receiver, and then Travis Kelsey at tight end. If you're going to to build a lineup around one of those guys. Who's it going to be this week? I think Travis Kelsey is the one that I like the most, believe it or not.

And I think it's because you're always getting leverage on the field at the position. And it's totally separate than actual leverage within the contest that you're entering, of course. But at every other position, I think you can justify different builds easier than falling into the messy tight end trap where, you know, in that 4K range and under, it's usually as simple as, well, if this guy scores, I'm pretty happy. And maybe at like the 4,500 mark and up, you're looking for four or five catches and some yards as part of that floor as well. But once you start to get below that, it's such an ugly position. And maybe this is part of my, my season-long mentality creeping into my DFS approach. But the more I think about 2021 and the way I want to build

teams in the future, the more I want to have a late first round pick in season long leagues to get Travis Kelsey or to get George Kittle and to have that huge advantage week over week at that position. I think that's something that I'm increasingly comfortable doing because there's production everywhere at running back and wide receiver. And I think this week in DFS, we're seeing that again. We really are. It's an interesting week. And I think that's a compelling case that you make for Travis Kelsey being the centerpiece of lineups. And we were talking right before we went live here recording this episode. And we're always wondering, what we're always saying? If you're going to pay up for a tight end, you got to sacrifice somewhere where you typically

don't. If you're going to pay up for a quarterback, you got to sacrifice somewhere, you typically don't. But this actually, because of the way that players have risen and fallen because of what's on the main slate and what isn't, this isn't a bad week to pay up at one of those non-pay-up positions. and find some savings at running back and wide receiver at running back. We've got these guys who we've been waiting for, waiting for to get to this point where they are not only leading their backfield, but smashing while they're leading their backfield. And we have finally arrived there in week 15, the four rookie running backs.

You know who I'm talking about, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Acres, D'Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins. I think all four of these guys are about to have awesome weeks. I think if you've been having one of these rookies on your season-long roster, all season, even though he has been disappointing you, you are going to be very happy because he could carry you into the championship game. Jonathan Taylor is the most expensive at 7200. I think he is an excellent play. I am very comfortable playing him at that price. Then you've got Cam Acres at 6,600, DeAndre Swift at 6,400. And then my favorite of the four is J.K. Dobbins at 5,900. A lot of it has to do with the price, a lot of it has to do with

the matchup against Jacksonville, and a lot of it has to do with the recent form of the ball. Baltimore offense and the way that they're running the ball. It just all lines up for a great game out of J.K. Dobbins. But I think I want to build my running backs with two of these rookies this week. It's crazy. Well, yeah, I think that comes from paying up elsewhere, too. If you save it running back, then you can get to Travis Kelsey or you could get to maybe even a Kelsey Mahomes combo, which is really enticing to have both of those guys if you want to jam in those two players as your most expensive options. I'm with you on Dobbins being the guy that I'm like the most of the bunch, but the game scripts are good for all three of the rookie running

backs that you've mentioned. The implied totals for those teams are either at or near 30 points. You know, you're looking at that and saying, wow, four plus touchdowns from those offenses and lopsided lines in multiple cases as well where it could be a lot more running than usual for a team like the Rams especially. I think you can build a Dobbins Acres lineup and be happy with that this week. I think that's going to be somewhat popular. And one thing I'm curious to see is if Dobbins ends up kind of getting up near the top three or top four at the position in terms of actual usage. Right now, he's projected a little bit below that. But usually things tend to shift as more articles come out, as more podcasts come out, as more value surfaces, things obviously change

in terms of some of these projections. I'm surprised that Derek Henry at 9,500 with the easiest possible matchup on the board. I get it. I understand why you want to do it. If you're the Titans, you can smash the lions in the first half and actually give Derek Henry some rest. If you think about the way this team's built and how important he is to their offense, I have legitimate fears at that price that it's a heavy first half and a very light workload in the second half. Now, that heavy first half could include 150 yards and three TDs. He could have a game in the half in this match. He did it last week. He did it last week, and he could absolutely do it against the defense as bad as the Lions, too.

But 9,500 for a guy that really doesn't catch a lot of passes is a very, very steep price to pay. I know there were some pretty sharp people who were staying away from him last week, and they got burned. I imagine they're preaching the exact same thing this week. I'm leaning against Derek Henry, at least in tournaments. I think in cash games, he's probably still the safest player on the board because he's Derek Henry going up against the worst run defense in the league. but I do think you want to look at alternate builds for tournaments in particular because I'm seeing Roto Grinders has him with a projected roster rate in tournaments of nearly 30%. So you're taking on risk and you're getting a guy that's on almost one in every three lineups in tournaments.

It's just a totally different look at the running back position than really we've seen in any week this season, no matter what part of the run you're looking at. I want to keep us focused on some of the guys that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about this season because that's just where we find ourselves in the fantasy world. Ronald Jones almost certainly not going to be out there for the Buccaneers. That puts Leonard Fournette seemingly back in the starter's chair. Four and a half K is his price. But, I mean, I don't want to touch him, Derek.

And maybe you're thinking differently, but he just hasn't been good this season. He was a healthy scratch last week. I think that LaShawn McCoy could potentially lead this backfield and touches. I think that they're going to get everyone involved. Kishon Fawn, I think is going to have some sort of. a role to play in this game. I just don't think that it's going to be Leonard Fournett taking over the Ronald Jones role in full. Right. I don't expect that to happen either, but I think because he's

priced like a guy who didn't play last week, you can justify it and get burned a little bit and still cash. I think you could still be fine. And I think because he's 4,500, he's your path to easy Derek Henry, especially in cash game lineups. Interesting thing here, though, is that, for as bad as the Falcons are, they're not generous to opposing running backs. They've been pretty good at keeping opposing running backs in check so far this season. I think if you go into Fournette being part of your lineup this week, you know the downside is eight to ten fantasy points. That's within the range of outcomes because he could yield a lot of passing down work to someone like Kishon Vaughn,

and he could share some opportunities with McCoy as well. I mean, you go back to the early part of this season, way back in week two, 12 carries, 103 yards, two TDs, five targets in that game. That was easily the best game Leonard Fournett has had all season, and he hasn't reached 10 points on Draft Kings since early November against the Saints. So there is a good bit of risk there with Fournette for all these reasons. I don't necessarily want to play him in tournaments either. It's kind of interesting how different my cash game approach really is. is from my tournament approach in this week. But I think you can justify four net as that third running back if you're going to do two and a flex from the running back position.

All right. One more running back who I want to get us in here before we move on to the wide receiver position. Jeff Wilson, to me, he's a slam dunk sort of play if Rahim Moster does out. Like if I'm taking a chance in a guy whose workload, I think I know, but I know I don't know for sure, Wilson's the one who I want to do it at $5,100. And the one thing that I take, the solace that I with him if Rahim Moster is out, is that Kyle Shanahan has trusted him as his lead back over multiple seasons when the starter has been out. And I just think that Jeff Wilson would be that guy for the 49ers this week against the Cowboys. I could definitely see it. I do think the risk profile is similar to Leonard Fournett, and you are paying a little more to get to Wilson, but in a

vacuum I do like him as the better play of the two if Moster doesn't go, because I think there is a little more clarity based on recent usage. I mean, the Bruce Ariens factor with that Tampa Bay backfield, somehow that's more confusing and more complex than Kyle Shanahan. That's kind of surprising when you think about it. But I do think Jeff Wilson, because this is a team that is missing probably two key weapons in the passing game again this week, they're going to lean on the run. And Dallas, it's a defense you can run on, so nothing really to fear matchup-wise there either. So I'm with you on Jeff Wilson. I do like him if we get the official word that Moster's not going to go in this one. I mean, Cam Acres, J.K. Dobbins, Leonard Fournett, Jeff Wilson. It is a totally different week from any other

that we have seen at the running back position this season. All wide receiver time here, Derek. You know, we mentioned the guys at the top, Tyree Kill and D.K. Metcalfe. The next guy down probably could have been included, maybe even should have been included. Based on the price, it's Calvin Ridley, $8,200 is his price tag. I think dollar for dollar, he's the better play than Tyreek or D.K. Not necessarily the best play at wide receiver, but for me, he's the better play. If I'm going to spend up, Calvin Ridley's going to be the guy who I am looking at. And I think you could really get involved in that game on both sides.

It's a nice companion play because once again, these Tampa Bay receivers are looking pretty attractive and none of them, no matter which one you go to, isn't going to cost you too much. That's a game where I like getting invested in the passing games. rather than the running games. Yeah, and once again, we're seeing pretty low projections on Tampa Bay receivers in terms of actual usage. So a nice opportunity in tournaments, especially if you're going to use Ridley to come back with Mike Evans at 6,500. I think that would be one way you can go about it. Obviously, Chris Godwin is a guy we talk about a lot on this show.

He's only 6,200, probably a little more popular than Evans because of the $300 discount. But I also think the projection floor for Godwin is a little bit more. stable last week coming off the surgery to have that pin removed from his finger much more quiet than expected only three targets in that game two catches for 25 yards i think that's easily going to be the worst we see of chris godwin this season so i do like him as a bounce back play and i think ridley's price it's probably going to keep people away for the most part we'll see what happens with julio jones if he were to get ruled out then i think interest in ridley would tick up a bit but i think confidence in the Falcons offense has waned quite a bit from where it was when this season began.

All right, Derek, you got to explain this. In our show notes, you've got Terry McLaren written with four exclamation points. So what's up with that? I know Seattle's defense has been getting better in recent weeks, but this is still in terms of your adjusted points allowed the best matchup you can give a wide receiver. Quarterback play, you know, that's always been a problem for Terry McLaurin since he came into the league last year. Nothing new there. You know you're getting six plus targets with ease coming off two clunkers the last two weeks. This is a get well spot, right? Volume has to go up for this passing game this week. So Terry McLaren at 6,600 on Draft Kings is one of my favorite mid-range wide receiver plays this week. I think if you are spending up a little bit more

at the running back position, if you're going to pay that premium for Kelsey, you're obviously going to have to be careful and not pay a top dollar for your first wide receiver. So I'm comfortable with a build in which Terry McLaurin is my most expensive receiver this week. A lot of Interesting guys in that range. We already talked about the Buccaneers. You throw McClorn into the mix, and I'll throw Brandon Ayuk in there as well at $6,300. I probably don't want to play him in a lineup where I'm also playing Jeff Wilson.

I just don't think there's enough to go around in San Francisco's offense to want two guys in it. But I do like what we've seen from Brandon Ayuk recently over the last five games. He has two 100-yard games. His worst game, his worst output, was seven catches for 75 yards. He had a touchdown in that game. He has three touchdowns over these five. games. I mean, he is just, I mean, if you just covered up the name and you saw the numbers that he has put up over these last five games, you would think this was, you know, someone that was

in the Devante Adams, Michael Thomas, Tyree Kill discussion for one of the first wide receivers off the board way back in August and early September. So I think that's something we can trust. Without Debo Samuel, he's done it with multiple quarterbacks. I think Brandon Ayuk is another guy who we can trust in. As we start digging in and talking about saving money at the wide receiver position, it just becomes even more attractive when you're able to get guys who have played like wide receiver ones over a long stretch of time at this price. And Brandon Ayuk for me, totally fits the bill. Yeah, I think Brandon Ayuk, you know, could be one of the most popular receivers in the pool this week and for good reason, because he has looked like a legitimate

wide receiver one with and without Debo Samuel. I'm curious to see the direction of this offense beyond this season if they make a change at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't played a ton this year because of injuries, but if they upgrade at that position, they might become an offense that can easily sustain three pass catchers week in and week out next season. 6,300 on Brandon Ayuk. Fantastic value there. 300 less than McLaurin. So you could go one and two with those two guys in your receiver spots this week.

And I think you'd have a ton of ceiling with both players. Iyuk, I think, is the higher ceiling guy, which is a big part of why he's more popular at this point. Let's take a look at some of the sub-6,000 guys, because again, I think we find more than a few guys who we can trust. Corey Davis, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, who we've already discussed tangentially. Kiki Kuki Kuti, DJ Chark. He gets Gardner Minshu back as the starter for Jacksonville this week. C.D. Lamb in a game against San Francisco where at least he's had volume, even though he hasn't had a ton of production. And you'll take that in a DK full PPR format. I mean, there's really no wrong way for me to go with those guys.

it would be maybe based on salary, but all those guys who I just listed, I am comfortable with in my DFS lineups. Are any of them jumping out at you considering both price and production? I mean, it's a great group as a whole. I keep looking at Dallas every single week. And with C.D. Lamb deflated at 4,500 and Michael Gallup even at 3,500, you can get exposure to that Dallas passing game opposite whatever you do, whether it's IUC or possibly Jeff Wilson in the San Francisco. side and you are saving a ton of money. They are part of your path to those more expensive players that we talked about at the top. It's unusual to see this much discounted value already available at the wide receiver position. And of course, a lot can change between now and kickoff on Sunday as well. So definitely a group that you want to choose from where you're getting at least one guy

in the mid-fours or lower because there's enough talent there and enough different teams that you could get correlation with with various matchups where you can easily justify saving some money there to free up that money you need somewhere else. Look at the first two guys I mentioned to Corey Davis and Ty Hilton. Their running back teammates, Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor are going to be very popular as well. So that is a nice way to get invested in those offenses with good matchups in a way that's going to give you a little bit of leverage. Let's move on to the quarterback position now here. Derek, We already talked about the expensive guys, Mahomes, Lamar, and Russell. And, you know, you said that Travis Kelsey would be the way that you would want to build a team if you were going to be building it around one of the expensive guys.

So what does that have you doing at the quarterback position? More likely than not, it's going cheap at quarterback. And there's a couple of interesting options. I think Jalen hurts with the running ability we saw last week. He's shown us flashes of being able to take some shots down field. He's got a matchup against Arizona that. It's kind of middle of the road in terms of difficulty, and he's just under 6K at 5,900. He really stands out to me this week as a good discounted option to play for cash games, especially.

I'm curious to know what you think about Mitchell Trubisky, though. We've talked about him in season-long leagues as a possible fantasy playoff hero. He's only 5,500. He's 400 cheaper than Jalen Hertz going on the road to face the Vikings. I think there's less of a rushing floor there, but there is a little. little bit that he brings. And I think that game has some shootout potential as well. Bears implied for a total right around 22 points this week. So kind of a similar situation to what Jalen Hertz has with the Eagles with the implied total there sitting at 21 and a half. Yeah, you know, since Mitch has

taken back over as the starter, he really hasn't had a bad real life game. The first game was against the Packers. He threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns in that game. It wasn't the greatest game he ever played, but he still got you there from a fantasy perspective. The next week, just 267 yards and a score against the Lions, but a much more efficient game than what we saw from him against the Packers, almost eight yards per attempt. And then last week just totally went off against the Texans, 267 and three, better than eight yards per attempt. So I think the $5,500 price tag is fair. I think the, you know, we've been talking and I've been juicing the season-long playoff hero. We might be getting a little bit over our skis on that one. But I do think that with paying

$5,500 for him in a DFS context. You feel pretty good. This match with Minnesota, not even really worth mentioning, right? Matchups are only things that are worth mentioning on the extremes. You've got a great defense or a terrible defense that matters. If it's any one of the 27 defenses in between, then we can basically throw the matchup out from a fantasy perspective. And I think that you get this sort of production out of Mitch that we have seen over the last couple of weeks. So definitely someone who I feel good about at that price tag. He's not going to probably be the person who carries to a big cashing day, but someone who's not going to kill you at that $5,500 price. And it's an interesting pricing tier with him in there, with Jalen Hertz in there, with Taysam Hill in there.

As of this recording, Taysam Hill is still expected to be the starter for the Saints this week. But Drew Brees was out at practice on Thursday, so we'll see how that ends up going. It's a way where you can go with a bunch of different guys, and it's where I find myself going more often than not. If I were going to go to a higher level, I wonder how much value there could be. and Ryan Tannahill at $6,700. We know that that's an offense that Derek Henry runs, but Ryan Tannahill has found a way to just be this uber efficient quarterback.

Maybe it's because of how good the run game is. And even if he's not going to go for 350 and 3, he's almost certainly going to go for 250 and 2. He's going to find a way to get to that, especially against this Detroit defense. If I'm going to pay higher than that $6,000 and under tier, Ryan Tannahill is the guy who's most interesting to me at $6,700. Yeah, I think Tannahill and Tom Brady at 6,600 are both.

worth considering there for all the issues in the Bucks run game this week. You have to wonder if Brady just throws it more, right? He's got plenty of toys to throw to. All the receivers are healthy. Gronks healthy right now. So maybe Brady just picks apart a pretty woeful Atlanta pass defense. And it's a Buc's team implied for nearly 28 points. Right now, Brady looks like he's barely in the top 10 in terms of his projected usage

in tournaments. So a few interesting options here for sure. and I think circling back just real quickly to Hertz versus Trubisky, Mitch is tournaments only for me. I would not play him in cash games. Hertz, I think I would be comfortable playing in cash games because of that higher rushing floor. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense, and that's one that's still, I mean, I've got that decision to make that exact decision in a season-long league

in the semifinals for my QB2 alongside Josh Allen. And I got a feeling that's going to be one that I go back and forth on a couple more times before I finally lock one in on Sunday. Let's talk about the tight end position, Derek, and let's just say that you build some lineups that aren't Travis Kelsey-centric. What tight end are you like in this week? Yeah, I mean, it's not going to work to have 100% Kelsey exposure. It would never work that way at 8K. A couple of the usual suspects we talk about, two guys in particular who stand out just because of their opportunities and price.

Dallas Goddard still just 3,900. I think you have to look at that Eagle's offense as one that could put a few more points in the board. Now that they made that change at quarterback. So I still think he's going to coexist peacefully with Zach Ertz. As we said many times before, they can go with a lot of two tight-end sets, and both of those guys can be productive. But Logan Thomas, still underpriced, I think, at 4,100. I mean, I don't want to play Thomas and Terry McLaurin in the same lineup

because I'm not stacking from Washington. But I think you can do an either-or thing there. Thomas, less risky, of course, with the much lower price by comparison. So I think both of those guys kind of stand out to me as cheap pivots this week. And, you know, if I look a little further down Hayden Hurst against the Bucks, maybe, if I'm going kind of Tampa Bay heavy, I think Hurst at 3,300 is a viable punt option if Julio Jones doesn't play. Nine targets a couple of weeks ago for Logan Thomas, seven last week against San Francisco, definitely taking on an important role in that Washington offense.

I like the guys that you said. I'll throw one more out there. It's a guy who I throw out there. pretty much every week if we don't talk about him first, T.J. Hawkinson, becoming a very reliable tight end. 7, 8, 9, 11. Those are his targets over his last four games. 68, 89, 84 yardage in the first 3.43 last week.

But, hey, he found the end zone. I mean, this is just someone who is a set-it-and-forget-it starter in season-long leagues and deserves to be among the most expensive tight ends. And still, if you're not Travis Kelsey, we're not talking about paying very much for a tight end. $2,200 is the price tag that is attached to T.J. Hawkinson, whether you go Derek Henry or one of those receivers or Ryan Tannihill, he gives you a comeback play on Detroit's side of the ball. So a fair guy to go with as well. Derek, we made it through this a little bit faster than we usually do, but hey, that's just the way things go sometimes,

and maybe that is the theme of week 15, something different for everyone at every single position. We're going to say goodbye to you now. Good luck this weekend, my friend. All right, good luck, everybody. All right. We move on now to the gambling portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Normally, this is when I welcome on Vic Tafer, but Vic is a little bit under the weather. So Vic's not going to be joining me for this episode, first and foremost. Get well soon, Vic. Hope you're feeling better, buddy. Secondly, we are still going to do this portion of the show, but it is just going to be me. I do have Vic's picks for this week, so I will be dropping those in as we go. Let's look back at week 14. Vic and I,

Both went two and three. We actually had three head-to-head matchups last week, and that's where Vicks two wins came. He went two and one in our head-to-head matchups from a week ago with wins on Miami and Tampa. Miami took down Kansas City. Tampa taking down Minnesota. Obviously, Miami didn't win that game, but did beat the seven-point spread by one measly point, you jerk. Tampa Bay getting the win straight up and against the spread against Minnesota.

Vicks' losses came on New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Giants. My two wins were the chargers and the bills. addition to those losses I took on Minnesota and Kansas City also just barely dropped Green Bay. They were favored by seven and a half against the Lions and unfortunately for me only won that game by seven points. On the season, Vick sits at 30, 39 and 1. I sit at 35, 34 and 1. So we are hoping for a strong finish to the year. Hopefully I can get comfortably above 500. We can get Vic. All the way too would be great, but we'll even settle for just near 500. Talking about week 15, Now, of course, we take these lines from Vegas Insider as their consensus pooling a bunch of different lines together and getting a strong consensus.

And again, this is Thursday afternoon that we are recording this. So this is just going to be lines taken on Thursday afternoon. A couple of Saturday games this week, bills at Broncos, Packers, and home against the Panthers. And I'm picking both of these games. It's not just because it's Saturday, although that is fun and it will make for a little bit more fun of a Saturday for me that I do actually genuinely. like both of these games. And I like both favorites. You know, the bills are firmly in command of the AFC East. They are comfortably moving toward having one of the top three seats on the AFC side of the bracket. And, you know, we need a little bit of help to get to the one seed,

of course, but they're going to be playing a home game this season, at least one in the postseason. And they've just been so strong. And I keep going back to this when I pick the bills. And it's been a few weeks now in a row where I have picked them. They just do what they do on offense and they do it very well. And I really like trusting teams like that. At this stage of the season, we know what teams are. And any one game sample can throw that out the window. But I want to trust teams who know exactly what they want to do and do it well week after week. And we have seen that from this Buffalo offense really all season long when right away they announced themselves as not last year's bills, as not this plotting team that was going to count on its run game and its defense to

grind out 20 to 17 or 17 to 16 or 23 to 20 victories. That is not what these bills are. These bills want to spread you out. They want to get four receivers on the field and they want to score 35 points. They want to score 40 points and they are capable of doing that every single week. And Denver's going to have to slow them down because I don't think, I don't really see Drew Locke and company keeping up with what Buffalo is able to do offensively. And I just don't see this defense slowing it down. So give me the bills at that minus six. Vic, for the record, is on the other side of this game. We have a few more head-to-head to this week, and this is one of them right off the bat, Vic taking the Broncos and the six. The nightcap on Saturday is Packers and Panthers. Packers are eight and a half-point

favorites, and once again, I am backing the home team very similar to what I just said with the bills. The Packers are a well-oiled offensive machine, and I just simply don't see Carolina slowing that down whatsoever or being able to keep up in a game where they don't have Christian McCaffrey. Ridgwater is exactly what he has been as advertised, right? This is someone who is not going to make a ton of mistakes. He's also someone who's not going to make a ton of big plays, and that's just not how you stay in a game with the Green Bay Packers.

If you are not going to make a ton of big plays on offense, then you better have a defense that can shut the Packers down like we saw in their loss to the Buccaneers, and that Buccaneers defense just totally dominated the game. Panthers don't have either of those. Panthers, excuse me, don't have either of those. Give me the Packers. I will lay the eight and a half.

Moving on over to Sunday slate, we're going to dispose quickly of the games where neither Vic nor I have a pick. Texas Titans, Titans and Lions. As I am recording this, no line on this game because we are not sure if Matthew Stafford is going to play. It seems to be settling somewhere in the 10-11 range. I would like the Titans if that is ending up where it is without Matthew Stafford, but we're just going to bypass it for our purposes here. Colts are seven-point favorites at home against the Texans. Seahawks go to D.C.

to take on the Washington footballs. They are five and a half point favorites. Vikings at home against the Bears, big game for that last playoff spot in the NFC. The Vikings are three-point favorites, minus 120 on that minus three. So a little bit more juice there. Almost feels like it's a three-and-a-half sort of spread. In fact, I would probably rather take it to three-and-half if I could get it down to minus 110, but no pick there.

Ravens minus 13 against the Jaguars. That wraps up our non-games with picks. We do have a couple of games with picks. Two for me, two for Vic. is shared. I'll give you the pick where Vic has than I am not on. Vic is taking the 49ers, three-point favorites in Dallas against the Cowboys. This is where Vic would tell you why he likes the 49ers. He has been burned by the Cowboys a few times this season.

My lean here is Dallas, but not going to touch it at all. Two games that I am picking the first one, Tampa Bay is minus six in Atlanta to take on the Falcons. It just feels like too many points to me. I'm going to back the Falcons. Obviously, this is a different offense without Julio Jones. but they've played without Julio enough this year to figure out what they are without him. And even though it's not going to be a team that I feel very comfortable about getting to 30 points, it's still one that can get points on the board.

Calvin Ridley coming into his own as a true wide receiver won this season. We saw that last week in the game against the Chargers. Ridley was always someone who we had to question over the first couple of years of his career, can he do it when Julio is out? And in many instances, the answer was no. But this year when he has played without Julio, he's been the one guy in Atlanta's offense that you can rely on. So you like that they still have that go-to receiver,

even if Julio is unable to play. Tampa, meanwhile, I mean, they just keep scraping on by. And that game against Minnesota last week was wildly unimpressive. And if not for Barnum and Bailey on Minnesota's side kicking the ball, that might have been a very different game. Dan Bailey, missing three field goals missed an extra point. Two of those field goals, very makeable, one inside 40 yards. I guess I won't hold the 50.

Yarder against him, but missed a 34-yarder, missed a 46-yarder. Those are field goals that you expect NFL kickers to make, and Dan Bailey even, going back to his days in Dallas, someone who we expect to make those kicks. The point is that Tampa just hasn't looked the impressive team to go on the road and be six-point favorites against an Atlanta team that has bounced back since the firing of Dan Quinn, at least to a point where the defense has been respectable.

I just think it's too many points. Next game, the last game, in the early window. Dolphins are two-point favorites in New England. This is a game where Vic and I are opposite ends. Vic likes the dolphins. I like the Patriots. I'm going to keep this one short and simple. Bill Belichick catching points against a rookie quarterback.

I really don't think I need to say more, especially since starting to run out of a little breath here. Let's move on to the late window. I have no picks in this window. I've already made four picks. There is one game where Vic does not have a pick. That would be the Rams minus 17 and a half against the Jets. 43 and a half is the over under in that game.

We're both staying away from it. My lean would be the Rams. Vic does have picks in each of the other two games in the late window. The first one, Cardinals are six and a half point favorites against the Eagles. Vic likes the Cardinals, likes that Kyla Murray should be able to get going with his legs after what we saw from him a week ago. Wasn't a huge game of Formbury in terms of rushing production, just 47 yards on the ground. But he did it on 13 carries.

And that was what we were concerned about in that three games. stretch before last week was that Kyle LeMurray had just five carries in each one of those games, 15 garries combined. And that is just not the way Kyla Murray has been dangerous this season. So the fact that he got back to running the football a week ago suggests that that shoulders feeling better, he's feeling better, he's feeling more confident in having to take a hit or two as he makes his way out of the pocket and upfield. And that should have you feeling better about the Cardinals offense. I also lean toward the Cardinals, but not going to make it a pick. Last game in this late window, Chiefs three-point favorites in New Orleans to take on the Saints.

Man, I wish that Drew Brees were fully healthy for this game. This is one that would be really fun, one that could be a Super Bowl preview. It was actually my preseason Super Bowl pick, and I would love to see this game with Patrick Mahomes against a healthy Drew Brees. We still might get Patrick Mahomes against Drew Brees. At least as of this recording, Drew Brees practiced on Thursday. He was out there for the media portion of the session, so it's possible that he does get back on the field and pushes Tason Hill back to his previous Swiss Army knife role. But Vic is going to go with the Saints, regardless of who it is,

that is suiting up at quarterback for this team. Just too many points for a good team like New Orleans to be playing this game at home. Not only does Vic have the Saints covering that three-point spread, but he thinks that they pull the upset and win this game. This was my sixth pick on the other side. I mean, I've picked the Chiefs many times this season. You probably don't need to hear me say it again. but Patrick Mahomes, less than a field goal or a field goal or less favorite.

Basically, you just need them to win the game. And as much as I love the Saints, I feel better about the Chiefs, no matter if it's Tayson Hill or a compromise Drew Brie. So I would lean toward the Chiefs, not quite making it into my five picks. Sunday night game is the Browns and Giants, no pick for either of us. The Browns are four and a half-point favorites. 44 and a half is the over-under. Then we get to Monday night.

Steelers and Bengals, this is where we find my fifth pick, and it is on the Steelers, 12 and a half point favorites. The Bengals have just been a mess since losing Joe Burrell. An absolute mess. And they've looked terrible, whether it's been Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley as the quarterback. They have just not been able to get anything going offensively. And even though Pittsburgh's defense has been beatable since the injuries to Bud Dupree and some of the other key players out there for them, this is still a good defense.

They still totally held that Buffalo offense that I was singing the praises of at the start of this in check for the entire first half before Josh Allen finally got things going last week. You go back to the week before that, it was really Washington's defense that did all the damage against them. The week before that, 1914 game against the Ravens and sure Lamar Jackson was out, but they totally stifled that offense. I mean, this defense is still going to be able to make life very tough on Cincinnati's offense, and it just has the feeling of a get-right game for a team that has now lost two straight after winning its first 11 of the season. So I think they cruise and comfortably cover the 12 and a half point spread on this one.

Let's wrap things up here. First, Vic's picks. Vic has the Dolphins, the Saints, the Broncos, the 49ers, and the Cardinals. Dolphins are two-point favorites against the Patriots, the Saints, three-point dogs at home against the Chiefs. He's got the Broncos back on Saturday. they are six-point dogs at home against the bills. He's got those San Francisco 49ers, three-point favorites in Dallas to take on the Cowboys,

and the Arizona Cardinals, six-and-a-half-point favorites at home against the Eagles. For me, I'm taking two games on Saturday. Give me the six-point favorite bills over the Broncos, the eight-and-a-half-point favorite Packers over the Panthers. I like the Falcons to stay inside the six and keep it close with Tampa. I like the Patriots to not only keep it within two points,

but to beat the dolphins outright, and then the Steelers. 12 and a half point favorites in Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. I think they cover that one with ease. Thank you so much for joining us here on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and The Athletic Football Show. We should let you know this is our last crossover episode of the season. So if you have been joining us every single Friday,

whether it's been on the Fantasy Football Pod feed or the Athletic Football Show feed, thank you for all the support. Thank you for listening. We hope that we've provided you with some fun, some enjoyment, and some of the analysis you need to put a little bit of money in your pocket, be it in the DFS world or in the against the spread gambling world.

Vic Taffer and I will still be doing this through the playoffs. We'll have one more episode for you next week. That'll only be on the fantasy football pod feed looking at week 16 lines, and then we will be doing it through the playoffs all the way through the Super Bowl. So we'll still be with you for the next year, a month, five, six weeks or so.

So don't go away just yet. We're definitely not going away. We'll be back with you next week. Until then, thanks for listening. Enjoy all of the weekend action. Have yourself as a great weekend, and we'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.