The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 15 Recap: Bills dominate Cowboys, Ravens stay atop AFC, Lions and Dolphins shine, Purdy does it again, and more

Episode Date: December 18, 2023

The Bills were one of the big winners of Week 15, and loom as one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC...if they can just get into the playoffs. Then there's the Ravens, who remained atop the AFC with a win over the Jaguars. That's where Robert Mays and Nate Tice start this episode of The Athletic Football Show. The guys also discuss the Lions and Dolphins getting back on track, the good weekend for teams that call Ohio home, the Rams' seemingly clear path to the playoffs, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert May is joining me tonight. It's my good friend Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? Doing very well. That day of football really reflected the weather around the country. Sloppy. But I enjoyed it.

It was a slop-em-up. That's how this week felt. And it's much better than no football at all. But I felt like just a lot happened in a way that it's going to feel like a crossroads. week where there's a lot of things happened this week as far as narrative for the season and how the season's going to end up as every week in the NFL is. But I'm doing very well, Robert, how are you? Doing well. There's a lot of poor performances that we're going to get to later. I'm excited for, I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed this week because there is some real grossness

that we're going to dig into after going back and rewatching some of those games. It's going to be pretty ugly, those conversations. But there was also a lot of good stuff that happened today. Let's start with the game that we just watched. The Ravens knock off the Jags, 23 to 7. They keep rolling at the top of the AFC. Before we started this week, we were talking about week 15 and previewing it. We were trying to tier the AFC. And I said the Ravens are probably the team I felt the best about. You thought they were right in that conversation with the Chiefs. The dolphins were probably one small step down from that. And the Jags were pretty far away from that class of the conference. Do you still feel that way after tonight? Do you feel like? Do you feel like?

Like tonight was kind of an expression of the way that you felt about these teams before the week started. I still think the Ravens are in class, but I don't think they are bulletproof. Obviously, with their offensive line, kind of got beat up a little bit today. And that is something that teams can get after if they have a good pass rush. And also the run defense, but I still think they are a very good team in the class of the AFC. I still think they should deserve that. The Jags are still a good team. Even if they have blemishes, that's another thing.

The Ravens just went on the road and I came in one. You know, just like you got to commend them for always just stacking these wins. I actually feel a little better about the Jags because of how their defense played. They actually got a pass rush. Their linebackers weren't totally sucked up to the line of scrimmage on every play. Isaiah likely did have a night. Tight ends are just always going to go off against these jags. So, at least some of these.

Even his completions, though, and even his production in this game, there's a lot of just 50, 50, balls and prayers. And that's not to take anything away. Yeah, 70, 30 in favor of the defense. offense. That's not to take anything away from Isaiah likely or Lamar Jackson. They made some monstrous plays in this game in order to get them over the hump. But even those

were not wide open completions, the like that we saw last week for the Browns against this Jaguar's team. Which is just walk in touchdowns. Several that happened. And so I do think I feel like this Jacks team is good, but incomplete. Like, you just I mean, obviously the offensive line has issues,

but they actually did a decent job mitigating it at times. And I mean, even the Jamal Agnew touchdown was on something they've been leaning into the more 12 personnel, the big shot play, and going in Jamal Agnew, I just couldn't believe it. I was like, I thought he was just done. And all there he is, catching a 60-something yard touchdown. I was like, oh, there it is.

Wide open, though. But I do feel better about them, but I do still think they are incomplete. I do think that they, of course, have a very good chance still of winning that division. But it's just that, you know, they, it's, you know, Trevor's sailing some throws. Like, he's getting beat up a little bit. And that's kind of worrisome a little bit because the offensive. the line. I still think they're probably the team to be in that division, but obviously now it's a three-way race. The gap that they had, the lead that they had is being almost completely erased.

I am with you on the Ravens because I think tonight was one of those games where it's hard not to be excited about what Omar gives you down in and down-out and the plays that he can make even when things are crumbling around him. He made three, four, five throws in this game that were just absolutely absurd. I'm obviously the 50-50 ball kind of prayer to likely that he sneaks out of the sack. That's one of them. There was an incompletion he threw to O'Dell Beckham at one point in this game where he stepped up in the pocket and threw it around a defensive player that almost got complete. My concern is him having to make those plays. And I think the biggest issue as to why that was necessary in this game is what was happening up front. The fact that Ronnie Stanley can't get healthy,

they're digging into that depth along the offensive line. We're nitpicking on a very good team. But if you're trying to win Super Bowls, those are the things that we need to nitpick about. And that just leaves me concerned about what the Ravens ceiling is if you're going to have to worry about stuff like this. Now we're down Mark Andrews. We're down Keith Mitchell. The offensive line is banged up. So we're starting to kind of take out some jangle blocks from this team that at their best we feel really good about. But what are they going to look like by the time we get to the postseason?

That's exactly it. That's always the thing that derails so many seasons. This is offensive line blows. Even if, again, Lamar is the guy that can get around it. but like you said, you know, he's looking like Wayne Gretzky out there, just zooming in and out,

bouncing off out, so many tackles. But it was like every single play. And I do like that. They had nothing in rhythm today. Nothing. No, I was just going to,

I'm curious to watch this game because it felt like the Jags were running a ton of zone. And I'm curious at that because these Ravens receivers, we like them, but what we always say, it's like slants and crossers, things on the move. I'm wondering if the zone,

because they don't have that big body, that's where Mark Andrews comes into play. It's like, is that maybe something that can stunt their passing game a little bit. I will say, though, this Ravens defense, I mean, like just stars now. Like on top of Roquan, but Kyle Hamilton, Justin Matabuke, is like going to be an all pro, like, which I really liked him. I did not ever think he'd even be an all pro. I was like, maybe, you know, maybe be like, maybe get eight sacks one year. And he's just, he had six pressures today, four in the fourth

quarter. This is all from next gen stats. He has 56 pressures this year. Only trails Aaron Donald among defensive tackles in the NFL. He's going to make a lot of money this offseason. a lot of money in a soft season. They've got stars at every single level, even the corners, even if they're not household names, the way that Brandon Stevens has played this year and what they've gotten out of Gino Stone. The defense is great, and we know that.

I still think the Jags, even playing against a really good defense, their propensity to consistently step on rakes and punch themselves in the nuts is unbelievable. It is such a frustrating team to watch. I just can't get over it. You missed two field goals in the first half. Trevor fumbles in the red zone. Every single time, he's like a gremlin.

You cannot let him get wet or things are just going to get completely out of hand. I'm starting to worry about this. It's a joke. Every single time the weather is bad, he seems to turn the ball over twice when he doesn't need to. This team, it's going to be a fast, I think we said this on Thursday. I don't think they're going to get there this year, obviously, because I think there's still a pretty big gap between everybody else. It's going to be a fascinating team to kind of step back and say, what do they need to do to close? the gap. I don't know. I don't know what my answer is to that right now, but you watch them and

you just, they're just something missing here. And I don't know quite what it is, aside from the fact that they're just making these self-inflicted wounds over and over and over again. You love the aggression and I get what they're trying to do. They're running a play instead of spiking it at the end of the half. Remember that one? And then it gets tackled and bound so they don't even get a kick off at the end of the half. And it's like you love the aggression, but they're not like a mature, They don't feel like a mature enough team to handle that aggression. Like when you see all these other teams, even like last year and this year, even with some of their woes this year, the Eagles, how confident they are on every single fourth down. It's just such a team element.

Like they don't feel like they punch themselves too much. I also want to say is that like going to their defense is Caldwell kind of got his groove again with some of the blitzes. And that is something that Lamar can be up and down against is the blitz. So that is just something I'm going to always just keep my eye on, especially with the O line kind of. getting, you know, in tatters a little bit. So that's something I'm going to keep my eye on as well. But this Jags team is just so, there's just a roller coaster, man. They are the, they're always the cardiac cats.

Like they just can, they're never going to lose that nickname. It's back, even when Byron left, which was starting for him. That's how they felt the exact same way. It didn't seem like two, three, four weeks ago that we'd be worried about them. We've been winning the AFC South, but now we've got three teams tied at the top of that division. So that race has gotten really close. Again, I still feel best about them among those three teams,

even with after CJ Straub gets back. But I don't think we expected it to be a conversation about whether they'd win the division. I think we expected it to be a conversation about what they could do after winning a division against some of these elite teams in the AFC. And that feels like a pretty far off discussion right now. Just remember that feeling before the Bengals game? Wow, they're figuring out their offense. Man, they can really be the one seat. Holy crap.

And just, I mean, it's crazy how quick this happens in the NFL. But they were always kind of teetering on that edge, but they were hitting all the cues we were. all the cues we wanted and now now it's just the missteps are happening it seems like the Ravens still belong in that conversation at the top of the conference but there's another team that I think is inserting themselves into that discussion right now let's get to that. Gentlemen, you had my curiosity

but now you have my attention. The Buffalo Bills laid it on the Cowboys today. Just an absolute ass kicking from start to finish and we had so many discussions this offseason about what the bills were trying to do. And this far-off version of who they wanted to be compared to what they were at their best in 2020 and 2021, when they were this spread out, throw it around team,

but they didn't have that other pitch when they needed to assert themselves physically. And you saw the way that they were trying to build the roster. I think some of it was a little bit misguided. The Dalton Kincaid Dawson Knox thing, it's like, that was a better idea that it wasn't practice in a lot of ways. But even going back into last year, when they were trying to kind of tap into a different version of themselves in the run game.

And then they go get those two guards in the offseason. They sign Connor, I don't even know his last name. I think it's Connor McDermott. The Connors in the AFC will always ruin me. I don't even tell you which one it was. The governor, whatever it is. The Connor at left guard and Osiris Torrance at right guard. And we kept coming back to, can this team tap into this physical run-heavy football team when they need it most?

even if you were optimistic about that outcome, I don't think you ever could have imagined the sort of Buffalo Bills team that you saw on Sunday. But after seeing it, man, do I feel pretty good about their ability to take it to anybody if they managed to get into this thing, which it really seems like they might. Yeah. This was the pivot. This was it right here. In a game that Josh Allen went 7 to 15 for 94 yards, they felt totally in control the

entire game on offense and defense too. We'll get that exact. But they, when Josh Allen was in the game, because they got to garbage time, like, unbelievable. Like, also, Cowboys, this is just like, every time we do game of the week, I swear. It's like, just like they turn into a blowout, either they win or they lose. It's like, just have a competitive game. The first Cowboys Eagles game, I guess.

But when Josh Allen was in the game, the bills ran a ball successfully on 25 or 38 design run place, 20 rushing first downs. That was, it's just, their average distance to go on third down was three point six yards today. And this is just the culmination of like, like just what you said. It was the ability to run different runs, the tackle pole play, which has been their favorite. And they've, now they're adding layers to it and levels to it. Like they're adding reed elements, different formations out of it. But then the duo runs, they can get to several different things, but also the ability to pivot on personnel.

That was, that's the other thing we've talked about that at the end of last year, we saw what Dorsey was trying. to do and Brady's kind of kept it going, which I think is great for this offense using Reggie Gilliam, who's a great Swiss Army knife for this team, they had Ty Johnson in a bunch on 21 pony personnel, which was interesting them doing that. So those of you guys not watching the game very closely, Ty Johnson had his share of rushing attempts in this game, but there were a lot of moments where he's just lining up as almost an H-back next to the formation, and they're using him as a tight end blocking. And I don't know what the thought process was behind that or what lever they were trying to pull. But it happened a couple different times and they were successful when they did it.

My guess is it was because the Cowboys were like, I mean, we know they do this a lot, but nothing but man coverage. So my guess was that messing with the man like, okay, who's on Cook, who's on, who are they determining who's, that's my guess. But they had four plays out of pony, so two tailbacks, two first downs average nearly 10 yards per play out of those looks. But they ran 11, which is main fastball, but 12, 21, 21, 21 pony, 22, 22, jumbo. So, and different tight ends. Like, it was this, this is it. This is like what we wanted to see so much. And they finally did it. They had some great run plays. Like I said, they have some great design plays. The James Cook touchdown. The other one that he dropped was a great design. So yeah, this is, this is it. And then

you sprinkle in Josh Allen chaos. What do we say? Baby got stew going. That's what the bills had going today and the defense that played great too. Alan's quote after the game was, awesome. He said he felt like the kid in the group project that didn't do anything and still got a day based on the game that he had today. And I'm sure that that is what he felt like. And that's a huge departure from what he normally has to do for this team. The fact that he can step back and they can have a game like this is remarkable. And I loved watching a team not get bored with this. That was my favorite part of watching the bill's offense today is that if the game script goes your way, this Cowboys team can be taken advantage of on the ground. They're 31st and rushing success rate coming into this

game, but often they're getting ahead because the way that offense is playing, that defense can lean into that chaos that they can create and teams can never put themselves in a position to bludgeon them in the way that they can be bludgeoned. But that's exactly what the bills did today. They had a 65% rushing success rate with 40 runs. There's only been five of those games all season this year in the NFL. The Eagles had two. The Niners over the Cowboys was another.

So those are three of the five. and the bills being able to play that sort of game is hugely encouraging. So them being able to tap into all these different versions of themselves and like you said, different ways of running the ball. I thought they'd spread it out to run against the light bodies that Dallas has. They did a little bit of everything. It didn't matter who was out there. It didn't matter how the cowboy has matched it.

It ran it down their throats for the entire game. It was great seeing, like you said, they didn't get bored with it. It was not, they were running the same concept over and over. But again, you knew that week they knew that they, that they knew they liked it. So they're like, rather than just going, hey, we're going to run one play out of one formation. It's like, let's find six different ways to run this. And also the, it was funny, they went 22 jumbo personnel.

So what that is is a fullback, Reggie Gilliam, two tight ends with one of those guys being an offensive alignment. The Cowboys are matching with nickel with five DBs. So they went, okay, we'll get an eye formation and run it down your throat or we'll go pinpole and pull an offense alignment on a DB. Like two offense alignment on DBs. It was everything you wanted to see. I mean, again, but the defense, how they were able to not only just take control of the first game. Oh, also last thing. Jonathan Hankins being out for the Cowboys.

Oh, that is just, that is just like that. I totally should have brought that up Thursday. Yes. When we're talking about the Eagles game and how successful the Eagles were running the ball. And one of those games with a 65% rushing success rate this year was the Eagles last week. They just didn't run the ball at all. So this was always possible if the bills were to stick to it. And they did.

So that was the formula on offense. I'm curious what you saw from the bill's defense that you liked in this game because this was always possible against this Cowboys defense based on the way that they're constructed and based on the way that they had played against the run this year. This is not what we expected from the Cowboys offense based on the way that they had played over the last six weeks and based on some of the struggles we'd seen from the bills. So what about this do you think allowed the bills to get on top of them on that side of the ball? It felt like a lot of cover two, a lot of like just very soft. They spot dropped as well. So true zone coverages. They mixed up looks.

And that's what I kind of figured they would do against Dak. McDermott's been in his bag. He's like since their by week and since the injuries, he's been really trying to just funky it up. The safety's played really well. Losing Zach Martin was huge. That was a big kind of sliding door moment in this game because then that became they couldn't drop back. They couldn't do anything deep. There's just several moments where they took advantage.

of that. A lot of times they also, they even baited DAC, who I think reads the game as well as any quarterback. The Cowboys like to do a lot on second along. They like to run draws. Running back draws. They're really good at it. But how they get to that is they package it with a pass play and a run play. So if it's too high, okay, we're going to run a draw. If it's single high, okay, we're going to throw the ball. They held the look so well and the linebackers held their look and the safety's held their rotation so well that they baited DAC into running to draw until a loaded box. So if you're getting DACC Were flying down the entire game

They did such a good job The way the safeties played the run And just the way their DBs tackled in space In this game The combination of that made a huge difference And rap stepping in for Michael Hyde And just being able to play the way that he did today Was monstrous

And all the guys were aware Like Dodson had the moment The third and one where Dak got sacked on That was just It was just a great moment of like Just lack of awareness Versus Awareness Dallel for the Cowboys

Stay in protection because he just saw color flash in front of his eyes instead of getting out. And then, you know, there's Dotson. He sees that, adds on and creates a pressure and ends up being a huge sack that kind of was like cemented the game. So, yeah, I just think that the attention to detail this Bill's defense has always shown under McDermott. It's like it's really getting highlighted now because they've had to do some makeshift pieces and then the stars are playing like stars, which is what you want to see out of a defense like this. Them winning up front on both sides of the ball in this game is not something that I expected. Even with Zach Martin out, how hand-lead they won that game up front on defense.

I'm talking about Buffalo. That says a lot about what sort of unit that can be in the right moments and potentially what they can be for the rest of the season. Our biggest question about this game coming in was, who's going to keep this going? Both of these teams answered a question about themselves in week 14. Dallas knocked off the first good team that they have all season, and the bills showed us that it doesn't matter who they're playing.

It doesn't matter how bad their schedule is down the stretch. They're so good that they can. keep stringing together some wins and maybe sneak into this thing. The bills kept that going. Dallas fell back. So I think our optimism about where Buffalo is and what they can do was well founded and continues to roll. How do you feel about the Cowboys after this game? Is this as worrying as it looks in your opinion? I think so because you're going to play in the playoffs, teams that can run the ball. So if they can control the clock, it doesn't matter. It doesn't even matter about the offense. Like even holding off that discussion, just talk about the defense.

This is the classic formula that defeats teams. If you just like they're going to control the clock. Well, the best players in the league, like Josh Allen is not having like his tough best day throwing the ball. And they are still controlling the game. It's like how are you going to do against 49ers, the Eagles? I mean, just look at all the teams of the NFC that can run the ball. The Lions. Imagine the Cowboys playing the Lions?

Like, I mean, then that could be a possibility. Like, especially if they, you know, whoever they play in the NFC South, because that's kind of how it's looking. this right now. But it's just that does make me worried. And they're very predictable I felt today. I just, I kept going back on like, are they hiding something? They were man coverage, man coverage, man coverage, man coverage, which might have helped them against the past, but didn't help them against the run. And Macy Smith was getting blown off the ball. Yeah. So it did have me a little worried. They looked more flawed. I still think they're a good team, obviously, but they looked way more flawed than they have.

Yeah. And the offense looks static too today. Just less motion than we've seen from them over the past since the by, all that stuff that we were excited about. It just felt so lifeless on that side of the ball compared to what they've looked like when they've been rolling. Everything felt hard. And that may be predictable against the 2020 bills defense that was just an elite unit

weekend. Yeah. Exactly. Team. And that's actually a really good way to put it because we talk about that with the Niners, right? And that Niners team has always been able to suffocate this Dallas offense. And the fact of the bills, this version of the bills, was able to do that against them today.

I don't know, man. That is dicey. I just did. I thought this game would be a shootout. I thought the bills would be able to move the ball on them consistently, but I thought that Dallas would match them haymaker for haymaker on the offensive side of the ball. And their inability to do that against this bill's team that has not been the sort of team that we're used to on that side. That's genuinely concerning.

because it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if you can be one Eagles team. It doesn't matter if you're putting up the best offensive numbers in the league over a month and a half stretch. We talked about this. It only matters if you can do this against good teams. It's only going to matter if you can do this against the Niners in the playoffs. And this was a very good barometer, in my opinion, of what a game against that Niners team might potentially look like, and they were not up for it. And it might not seem fair, but it's like this is the tier, when you're at this tier, it's tight.

You can't have blemishes. They're going to get poked at. They can be exposed. I mean, just them playing on the road. They're pretty much automatically going to look like it. You know, look at the Eagles' rest of their schedule. And those splits are concerning, man. Yeah, those are potentially damning.

That's something to talk about and think about as we get a little bit further into this. And I want to step back and maybe take a look at why that might be the case. What is the difference between this Dallas offense at home and on the road? Because those splits are real right now. Yeah. I think some of the movement stuff, communication and motion stuff, just becomes so much harder on the road. So I think the stuff that we like,

and the last thing, too, is that like when they have to throw a quick game, the fact that any time they throw a quick game against a good defense, like the bills played today, and they just teed off on everything. It's like when that gets taken away from them, this, ah, that kind of like just that little way that they can nickel and dime, when that gets taken away, even though if we'd like them pushing the ball, just feels so uneven, which is concerning too.

The bills can win the division. This is very real. If they went out, they win the division, because they get the dolphins in week 18. But even if they don't, let's say the bills are a wild card. And they've got to play a couple road games in the AFC. You think the bills can win the Super Bowl? Yeah.

I think he's wide open. How this defense played. It was never the offense. This was a great exclamation point for how the offense has looked this year. But how this defense has reconfigured itself, yes. Because now they have answered some questions that I had, and they're doing it against good teams, too. Butler tells me they need one more dolphins loss along the way. whatever it is.

They're probably going to be a wildcar team if you're playing the odds right now. They're probably going to have to play on the road. Beat the Cowboys without Josh Allen doing anything. Like, now imagine Josh Allen doing stuff. That makes me feel pretty good. I should say not doing anything, not full on carrying the team. Yes. He didn't.

It was not the Josh go do something offense that we're so used to. Okay. And this Bill's team, what a wild ride this has been. Because I'm sitting there in July or July or August. And I'm looking at it. I'm like, am I crazy? Or does this have a chance to be maybe the best. version of this team that we've seen in a while.

And then they lose all these close games and we get the McDermott expose. And we're getting all these just awful stories. He's having to come out and address them. Feels like they're falling apart. They lose that game to the Eagles. And I'm like, man, maybe they just weren't that team. Maybe this their window and their chance to really do this came and went. And it's time to kind of not blow it up, obviously, but really take a long look in the

mirror about what the next phase of the Josh Allen bills is going to look like. That's where I was two weeks ago. I don't think that's unfair. And now to watch them right now and to look at every other team in the AFC and come away thinking, they could do this, man. It's kind of where I thought I would be while thinking about this team back during training camp, but it has been one hell of a winding road to arrive at this moment. I have nothing to add. I just say, yeah, because they're my preseason Super Bowl pick. I said at one point, I was like, I don't look. I'm going to be as a contender anymore. And then it's just, they fired the offensive coordinator. I'm just like, oh my God. Like, what is going on? I forgot about that. It's part of this winding road.

Oh, my goodness. But yeah, no, I feel as good about the bills as I do any team in the NFL right now, just because what they just have shown on offense and now what this defense is doing. It's what a crazy year. That it's just, just, this is the NFL, man. Just be normal. You can live in a different world from one week to the next. And I think no team embodies that better. this season than the Buffalo Bills. And this was their announcement that they have rejoined the conversation in a way that nobody could have predicted a month ago. But here we are.

They match their quarterback. Team of chaos. Let's get to our next one here. Both the lions and the dolphins. You guys have my attention. We talked about both of these teams heading into week 15 and about where they sit in the larger hierarchies of their conferences. And the lions obviously were really struggling.

going on defense. The offense had shown some blemishes. They lose that game to the Bears last week. Talking about the Dolphins, some of the offensive line injuries that they've endured, without Tyree Kill potentially, if they're going to be banged up. What do they look like when they have to play a little bit off schedule offensively? Then there were some concerns. And I think some of those concerns were warranted. The games that those teams played today are a reminder, or this weekend, excuse me, I know the Lions played last night. The games those teams played this weekend are a reminder of what they can look like at their best. And let's start with Detroit because I was so impressed with the overall offensive formula they brought

into that game against the Broncos. They have their offensive line back healthy, Frank Ragnos back in, and you kind of saw what the plan was on offense from the beginning. Jamir Gibbs, Sam LaPorteur, this offensive line, Jared Goff just ripping in breakers. And even if we do have some concerns about the defense. I think some of those are still founded. This offense can roll in the right circumstances, and that is always going to make a team dangerous, even as they're playing against elite competition come playoff time. They make the most of their chances. And James and Williams getting involved, like they got everything going. But you wrap the offense to line health, and that's where it just feels like it. Especially, I really studied that game last year he played against the Bears because I did the

wind the clock video. I'm just kind of like, man, there's something, man, what tackle's get blown back. They're missing that protection. I was like, oh, yeah, Frank Ragnow's out. He is extremely important to this team, not just the offense, not just the offensive line. I have some great with and without stats for Ragnol. I think they're great. So I wanted to share them with you guys. But he missed last week with the Bears. He missed another game and he missed another half throughout this year. He's missed 182 plays this season. The Lions have the fourth best success rate in the NFL when Ragnos on the field. They are 29th in the NFL when he's not on the field.

They go from 44.7 to 36.4. They are tied for second in the EPA per play when Ragnos is on the field, but the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Bills. They are at 27th when he is not on the field. Negative 0.13, the same as the Steelers. So they basically go from an elite offense to the Steelers offense when Ragnos on and off the field. And it's both the run and pass game because he's so smart, gets him on the right page

against the Blitz, and that helps golf. The blitz stuff was the biggest difference. watching them play against Chicago. We talked about last week, man. And then watching them play against the Broncos this week. Because the Broncos threw some stuff at them. And it just didn't matter. Simulated pressures, creepers, bring in five, anything they threw at them,

the Lions had a really good plan. And they picked it up in this game. And I think having Ragna up back is a huge reason for that. And just again, those layers of offensive, that layers of offensive personnel that we're starting to see, what gives them just in terms of juice whenever they hand him the ball. And what Leporto is doing. Laporta is awesome.

His ability to just be everything you want out of a tight end. There was a stretch in the first quarter, late in the first quarter. They have, they're in jumbo, okay? They've got an extra offensive lineman in there. They've got a full back in there. There's one receiver on the field wide receiver. Laporta is the ex-receiver out to the right side. They run a play action.

He's on the glance as the number one receiver against a corner. Catches the glance. It's like a 10, 15-yard game. Simple play, but the fact that, that they're comfortable with him in that moment as the best receiver on the field. The matchup you're trying to create says a lot about him. Same drive. He throws a nasty chip on the defensive end, leaks out, catches a ball in third and six,

gets a first down. Same drive. He comes on a WAM block, crushes the defensive tackle, Gibbs, it's a huge Gibbs run that gets them inside the five. Yeah. That drive, Leporta scores on the angle route. It was the same drive. It was all the same drive.

And his ability to be multifaceted in that way is so awesome. And that angle route, they had three of them. They scored three touchdowns on three angle routes to three different guys. Gibbs had one. Amon Ross St. Brown had one, and Sam LaPorte got one. And that's one of my favorite things about this offense. Their creativity in the red zone and their ability to play with a defender's leverage or a defense's leverage consistently as the field shrinks, they've done it better than

anyone else in the NFL over the last two years. So over the last two seasons, they have scored a touchdown on 64.7% of their red zone trips. That is the number one rate in the NFL. And when you watch them, it feels like that. They're so good at converting down there, whether it be creatively through the air or just hammering people on the ground. And that's what we saw.

We saw that version of the Lions offense this week against a Broncos defense that had been buoyed by turnover luck. a decent amount over the last couple months, but was playing much better defensively. They were really doing some interesting things. They gave C.J. Stroud a really hard time. It was not all smoke and mirrors and bullshit with the Broncos defense. And for the Lions to come out and did what they do, do what they did against them on Saturday. I'm very encouraged about where this group could be when everyone's healthy and everything's role.

Absolutely. Yeah, this is the same team that snapped a ball between the quarterback's legs. Like this, they get creative, but it's sound. It's the best. They run the best gadget stuff, best designer stuff. They pound the rock. I'm glad you brought up the angle of the choice angle routes because it felt kind of like a, you know, against Sean Payton, who's made a whole living off of those routes. Oh, I'm sure.

He's just watching one after another get scored like, what the hell? And also that those three scored the touchdowns on that. Remember this summer when we're talking about the lines, right? Really, you're going to build a passing attack around a slot receiver, a rookie tight end and a rookie running back. And that's going to be your passing game. All right. All right. I guess it's okay.

I guess it works if you, those guys are good enough. But yeah, it's, no, I feel much better how this team looks when they are healthy. When that offensive line is healthy, this whole thing goes.

Golf can operate in those clean pockets as well as anyone. And they have the weapons. They have the juice right now. It's just the defense thing is weird because they got, we're getting pressure, but they weren't getting home. And that's, you know,

usually the underlying thing is like, okay, it'll get better. It looked a little better today. So it's one I'm curious to study because, you know, the Broncos can get after you. That's kind of funky.

I like that they were bringing some pressures in this game. I think when they blitzed, they actually really did affect the game consistently. Melphone Wu had a couple big plays as a pass rusher. They had a couple run blitzes that got home in key situations. So we'll see. We'll see if the defense can put it together. And a lot of people were doing a victory lapse about the draft on Saturday as these guys are doing this. This is a long game.

It's a long conversation. I think that's just important to revisit that. There is a very real chance that this team doesn't have enough juice defensively in really key positions, even if Jamir Gibbs and Sam Laporteur to continue to play extremely well. So it's just the only thing I wanted to say about that is that conversations about draft picks and whether they were good and whether or not they're going to work out and whether the value was correct. These are not six-week conversations or one-season conversations. So I think everybody just kind of pumped the brakes on that a little bit.

But the guys that they drafted this year and what they look like within this lion's offense is pretty damn cool. The last thing I wanted to say about you kind of copping from Sean Peyton and maybe shoving some of that stuff in his face, John Morton, who was a long time NFL assistant and he was with the Saints for a while. He got to bounce around. He was with the Lions last year. And he was kind of a big part of the, my understanding is that he played a significant role in kind of the breadth of the passing game that they could bring to this offense because he had played in so many different systems or coaching so many different systems. he's the past the game coordinator for the Broncos now. So there's overlap between these staffs where I think that they've taken from each other and try to be each other in a lot of different ways.

So that's just an interesting kind of coincidence and bit of similarity there between how both these teams go about it. That 2006 Saints comparison is going to stick. It's a thing. It's a thing. No, but you can see it all over the place. There's so many of those concepts that both teams ran that they're the exact same concepts, which I think is I love when you get to see that when it's not Shane Han

because it's half the league of Shanahan right now. Let's get to the Miami Dolphins who also had an excellent performance today. They blow out the Jets. And even if the Jets' offenses struggled for much of this year, that defense is still elite. And for the Dolphins to come out and put together the sort of game that they did offensively was extremely impressive in terms of the amount of explosive plays that they had and the way that the defense just controlled the game.

So I like seeing them do this without Tyree Kill, having that explosive element to the offense still with Waddle. But to me, watching this defense take over a game in the way that they did was maybe the most encouraging part of this Dolphins performance overall. The Jets could not function offensively because of what Wilkins, Bradley Chub, Seeler, all of those guys are doing down in and down out. And that's the version of the Dolphins defense I thought we would see. It helps to play the Jets, but I still think it's really nice to see that this team and that

unit specifically is capable of these sorts of moments. The front is just kicking ass. I mean, you mentioned them all, but they can rush only with four and get home. They can stop the run. But since Ramsey came back and it was Phillips, but Ramsey, the Jaylins came back and then Phillips got hurt. This defense is first in success rate, first in EPA per play. They are first against the run.

There's second and yards per play. They only give up 4.2 yards per play over that time. So this is since week eight. But they're tied in first with QB hits with the Texans, which we'll talk about later. But they allow an explosive rush only at 3.6% of the runs, which is that's what it feels like they, it's so many third and longs. Just third and long, third and long, third and long when you play this team. Like, but they have an awesome front. David Long is just a vacuum and it just cleans up anything behind it.

And then the DBs are just playing really well and suffocating back there. So it's, yeah, they got this, like you said, we, when we did our top 10 defenses prediction, we said, we feel like this. defense will get better, especially when Ramsey comes back. And yeah. They still scared me. They still played poorly for way too long and way too, way too big a chunk of this season for me to feel good about it. But over this last month and a half, about, yeah, about a month and a half, almost two months now. They're legit.

They're like an elite defense. That's how they're playing. And they're, again, yes, it helps against the Jets, but they've done this against several good offenses as well. So that's what when we talked about them on Thursday, their defense, or really Friday morning, their defense is what made me feel better about the dolphins than overall the whole team. I mean, or about the whole team, maybe more than just even just the offense. Here's what I, here's why I feel good about them. Today, even without Tyree Kill, even against an elite defense, it wasn't like they were moving

the ball consistently playing and play out if you look at success rate and all those sorts of metrics. But watching them test shit out in this game, what I came away thinking was this defense plus this offensive coaching staff and how they seek out answers, that's why I'm encouraged by it. They did something very specific that I want to talk about. And I don't know how often they've been doing this for how long they've been doing this. But they ran two run plays in the red zone, one of which ended with a Rahim Moster touchdown, where they're in pistol and Tua opens to one side and then kind of reverse pivots and pitches it back to the other side. They did that

twice, including a Rahim Moster touchdown. And I watched that happen. I'm like, Like, that is such wonky shit. And the fact that they're even trying some of that stuff and trying to find different answers, whether it's in the run game or in the passing game, I always know that even if they don't have the guys at front, even if the personnel is lacking in some areas, even if maybe they don't have the ability to pivot like some really good offenses do in the playoffs when it comes down to it, I still know that they're going to throw enough stuff against the wall plus the way that this defense is playing, that they're going to be dangerous no matter who they're playing.

I guess. So that was the prevailing feeling as I was watching them in this game, is that they're just going to try so much stuff and see what the layers need to be offensively. And when you combine that with the way the front is playing, they just have enough to them where they can beat anybody in any given week. And that's how they feel. Yeah, this was their worst game in terms of success rate. I actually didn't feel bad.

Like I watched it back and I was, no, like you said, they, and again, Mike McDaniel has earned nothing. like he gets the most benefit of the doubt or one of the most of any coach. Because just what happened last year, what's happened this year, his ability to just kind, he understands that their offensive line and the woes that they might have. He understands that dropping back can be deaths sometimes or just straight dropbacks. But he understands also how to eke out every touchdown when they have an opportunity. No, Rahim Moster has 20 touchdowns this year, which is crazy.

It blew my mind. That play that you talked about, though, I had a same note on it, but it was a fake duo pitch. and another team I've seen do that is USC did it in the red zone this year, Lincoln Riley. But it's something I'm keen on looking more into because the Rams have been messing with this two out of the pistol is they're messing with the side that they're handing the ball off to mess with the lineback of keys. Yeah. Which makes a whole sense. You could see Quincy Williams struggling with it today. Because that's what they're reading right now.

And it's, again, those guys make sense. McVeigh and McDaniel are going to watch each other's tape. So it makes a lot of sense. but it's like something more and more teams are messing with. And that's going to be kind of, that's a new little thing I'm going to see in the last couple months of the season that other teams are going to do. Hey,

I'd like to watch from a different angle, but essentially you turn, he, to it turns to the right, the playside linebacker that way steps down and then he pitches the ball back to the left. So now the place, the backside linebacker, which is that what that guy becomes is essentially inconsequential in the play.

And they did it multiple different times in this game. And again, just one little layer, one little wrinkle. They're just trying stuff consistently. The Rams one was funny because it was last week against the Ravens, because who the Ravens have at linebacker, Roquan Smith. Yeah, he reads his keys pretty well.

And so at first they ran duo at a pistol, I think under center one way. And then midway through the game, you can tell they switched it. And Kyron Williams didn't get the memo because Stafford opens up wrong. And I thought Stafford messed up or one of them messed up. I was like, oh, that's where. But you can see Stafford going to the sideline going like, we switched it, right? And then the next play the time they run duo, then it's switched. the footwork and they did all the thing. I was like, oh, that's interesting. But because a mistake

happened was the only reason I noticed it. So yeah, again, I think other teams are going to do this. We'll see what happens when Tyreek gets back. But again, I just think that the overall formula that team can bring at you is pretty damn dangerous. Yeah. I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed. I want to start this by saying, this segment has never been more aptly titled this season. I have never gone into the process that we do on game day, where we're rewatching some of these games and studying them before we talk about them and been more disappointed and more disgusted than I was today in the two teams that we're going to talk about. Let's begin by talking about the Atlanta Falcons somehow losing that game to the Carolina Panthers today.

Where would you like to start? Well, as soon as I saw Lindstrom was out and I saw the weather, I was like, this isn't going to be good. This is not going to be good. They need to run the ball and Lindstrom's out. This is not good. And it wasn't good. Just the lack of run game by the Falcons, which was one of the things I was legit most excited about to watch this year.

And it's been week over week. Just the lack of consistency in a run game, lack of identity in the run game has been truly one of the most disappointing things I've had this entire year. It's so weird. It's so weird. And I understand that collectively we were more optimistic about the Falcons than pretty much anyone else on planet Earth. But part of it was looking at what they were on offense last year and trying to project some of that moving forward. Even if you were pessimistic about Desmond Ritter and about the passing game, the rushing offense last year was elite. In every single capacity, it was elite.

Innovative. I understand that they had two offensive linemen out today. Drew Dalman was hurt their center. Chris Listerman is hurt. Everyone's hurt. Everyone's got injuries along the offensive line. And this just wasn't an issue today. We'll get to some of the numbers. But last season, this team finished third in EPA per rush. They were third in rushing success rate. They returned their entire offensive line, except they swapped out their left guard for a potential upgrade in going to get Matthew Berger than this year. He is a good player. Yes. This year, same numbers. They are 25th in EPA per rush this year and

23rd in rushing success rate. Today, I was watching this game. There was that stretch early in the game where they had a third and two. They pitched the ball to Bijan. They had Tyra Alger leading up and Frankie Louvre drops him for a loss. On fourth and three, they run the ball again and get stuffed again with Yitor Gross Matos just dominating Jake Matthews at the point of attack. So I go into the numbers.

God, how often do they run for a loss in this game? They're just getting pushed around by this. Panthers team, 45% of the Falcons runs in this game went for no gain or negative yardage. That is the third highest percentage in a game this season. The only two teams to be worse were the Steelers against the Browns on that Monday night game where they could not move the football. It was one of the worst offense performances of the year and the Raiders against the Bills. Those are the two teams that were worse than that one stat than the Falcons were today.

The Falcons are 24th on the season and that's that. So yes, Chris Lindstrom didn't play and Drew Dalman didn't play, but this is an ongoing issue. So the thought that I had kept coming back to us, watching the Falcons today, is that this game, to me, is the biggest expression yet, even if it was in a rainstorm, that the plan they had on offense, the identity they wanted on offense, the type of team they wanted to be is a failure this year. They failed to make good on what that plan was. If you're going to draft a receiver in the top 10, you're going to draft the running back in the top 10. Those guys can't have like 10 touches in a game that you lose to the Panthers. Like just everything about who they wanted to be and what I thought, the ways I thought that I would express itself has not come to fruition.

And I don't know what that means moving forward. If you swap out the quarterback, which is going to be, I think probably what they're going to try to tell is at the end of the season. It's like, we get a different guy in here and we get a stabilizing force in here, we'll be okay. But I think the issues run a lot deeper than Desmond Ritter throwing red zone interceptions late in this game. Well, it's just the mistakes.

I mean, last week, the Ritter pick six that happened was two guys just decided not to block on a bubble. And it's like, you just make these mistakes, these youthful mistakes week after week. And it's like, they're supposed to be ascending right now. That was my thought. I thought they'd be a 500-ish team for the first half of the year and ascend in the second half of the year. As they're all young, they come together. They start doing cool stuff. They have an easy schedule.

They all season seemed. And I think Bijon's use in the. past game is kind of like, you know, my cosm, microcosm of this is too much idas. They have too many ideas, too much galaxy braining, too much, just too much for a young team that should be simpler. And I watched all these other, I watched the Colts just spam RPO's. They're on like five plays. And it's like, again, Occam's Razor, just simplest answer.

And I feel like so many times, it's so hard for me. It's like, I, there is so much that Arthur Smith does on offense. I'm like, well, this is great, but it's not executed well. So if the design's good, but the execution's bad, where is the issue? And I feel the exact same way. And I'm not over this. I'm not saying this is a lost cause. No.

I don't think he's going to get fired. I don't think the staff is going to get fired. The way that their timeline has worked, this is the first time that they spent money. It's a young offense. Yeah. This is the first time where they've kind of put their best foot forward to try to win football games under this staff. They did a very good job with a lot less talent last year than they have ran. now. So I just think this is about coming back to the drawing board and saying, okay, what are we?

These are the pieces that we have. Let's throw out a third of this shit and let's really kind of zone in on who we want to be. And I also think that a new quarterback probably has to come with that. Where that comes from, I don't know. But this team overall, I think just has to kind of take a step back and go back to the drawing board on offense because the plan that they had, who they wanted to be, has just not materialized in the way that they had hoped. It's just there's some. There's some, many times, like you said, like go back to the drawing board. It's, I don't know what their fastball is. Like, and that's what I thought. It's supposed to be the run game. And it was supposed to be. And it's not. And even in that run game, I don't know what they lean on. Every week, I loved, you know, some variations that they had. But I always thought those were the knuckle balls and changeups. But instead, they're just trying to do all this stuff. There's so many times I would watch them this year. They've kind of been no fly zoned the last couple of weeks for me. And not even all 22. Me, I was watching them weekly. I don't watch them on all 22. more because I'm just like, I'm done with this.

You said that. And the fact that that's how you feel is the biggest indictment. That is the biggest indictment, the biggest, like, damning of the Atlanta Falcons that could possibly exist is you not wanting to watch them play. Because they had so much cool stuff. And now they don't. It's like the creativity. It feels like you go from color to black and white.

And that's what it just feels like when I'm watching this team. Like, playing in that sloppy fest game today felt like how I felt like watching this Falcons team. I don't know. It feels like with all these young players like Bijan, you could tell us. in his head. Like he's just so overthinking. He had a drop again today.

And you can tell he's overthinking everything. I do, he's going to be fine. Don't get me wrong. He's so talented. It's like, there's no way. London is a star. London's so good. He's, like, he's such a unique player.

He's good. Pitts is weird case. I'm trying to figure him out. I really have no idea with the makeup pits. I don't. I think he's hurt, man. Yeah. I think that there's just,

there's something lingering and he just doesn't feel like he's ever gotten back to the guy he was before some of these things crept in. That, to me, is going to be one of those issues that potentially lingers, where we think of him as this really important building block and who this team is ultimately going to be. And I don't know if that's true anymore. I think that's something that we have to kind of take a step back and reintegrate. London absolutely is because I think he's going to be a really, really good player. But this idea of we're going to build this kind of unconventional offense and all these positionless players. We're going to use them in all these different ways.

And we're going to be able to just grind teams down the run game. And Desmond Ritter has to be the 18th best quarterback in the league. and we'll be able to be in elite offense, that's gone. That's gone. So I just think that it has to be about taking a step back, reconfiguring who you want to be offensively and figuring out what type of quarterback you want to put into that equation. Because right now, this is not working. And honestly, I think them losing this division and not winning it might be the best thing for them.

Because they can be in strike range for a move up. That's one thought I had. That's part of that. But also just in terms of how long of a look you're taking it yourself and how honest you can be about what's wrong and about how far away you are. Them winning the NFC South at 10 and 7, I don't know if that necessarily would have been the best thing for where this team was going. The first place scheduled next year and all that. Yeah, no. The thing is, I'm so disappointed.

I really, like you said, this segment couldn't be more a better name. They do have a lot that I still like. and I do think they could be very frisky next year. I was so a year ahead on this team. But it's like they're not, like, it's not a morbid thing where you're like, wow, I don't know where they're going with this team. They can have so many cool pivot points, but it's going to be interesting what they decide to do.

They have an extra pick with the Ridley trade. So if they end up picking somewhere in the top 12 or so, they have some potential ammunition. And I think that they might be well served to use it. And maybe pair that with a stopgap, better a quarterback, whatever. But that's a conversation for another time. Let's get to another team that was pretty much equally disappointing today. And that is the Green Bay Packers defense and the performance they had against the bucks today.

It was maddening. We're watching that game and watching how they were playing some of this stuff was absolutely maddening. I have one specific stat that I want to throw out for you in what feels like one of the low points of the Joe Berry regime in Green Bay. And I think that's saying a lot. on throws between the numbers in this game. Okay? On throws between the numbers in this game, Baker Mayfield finished 12 of 14 for 256 yards,

18.3 yards per attempt. On those throws, he averaged 1.72 EPA per dropback. For context, that is about five times what Brock Purdy is doing to lead the league. So every single time the Bucks threw the ball between the numbers, they gained 1.7 expected points in this game. Their success rate on those plays was 85.7%. 12 of those 14 throws were successful. All 12 went for first downs. Oh, man.

We're even checkdowns either. You go back and watch it, and it felt like that. Every single time they tried to throw the ball over the middle of the field, they did whatever they wanted, the Bucks did. And I just don't know what to do with this defense anymore. I understand that they're banged up. I understand some of that. But Quay Walker was back. They didn't come into the season with any safeties.

So I'm not going to give them any credit for playing with the guys they have right now. And I get that Jair Alexander is hurt. But with everything that they've spent and with where this defense is supposed to be, it's supposed to be better than this. And I think today was a real low point in what has been a season full of them and what has been a multi-year stretch of them. If you had told me that the Packers had really held the Bucks run game to like under 30% success rate, I'd be like, oh, may Baker throw it over and over, but like, oh, that's a good formula. That probably works.

Perfect passer rating. They're tweeting it out, 158.3. The Packers, linebackers were exposed the whole game. It was awful. You're over the middle stats. Perfect. I felt like every catch happened between the numbers and the hash. And it was all the classics.

high low seam routes, benders, and everyone got involved, tight ends, running backs, Rashad White's catching one up the seam. That one was a fun one because they made it look like the block play, the swing block play everyone does,

but then they ran it up the seam, which is another play everyone does. So it's kind of a fun little splash of water. That motion to that four strong look, if you go back and watch the Rashad White touchdown, it's similar to a lot of what the Niners are doing to the Eagles in that game, where they're motioning to that four strong look. And there's a guy.

the flat on that swing, but they threw the seam ball to the running back. So it's a consistent thing that teams have tried to get into in those four strong looks, but they executed it and it manifested in the coolest way possible. It was sweet. You remember Rashad White used to be a receiver before he used to run a back. But yeah, everyone got involved. You got Chris Godwin, you got Mike Evans on the double post. Yeah.

But even in a play where like Campbell is in position, that last played to David Moore, that catch and run, it's like he doesn't make a play on the ball. And he's like, he's there. And it's like, I mean, come on, man, that's the guy you're supposed to be counting on. And, man, it just felt like, yeah, there's just big play after big play after big play. And it's like, this is just the same story. It's just like I feel like we've had this, what, three straight years. It feels like about this four straight years.

Every year we've done this show. I feel like we talk about this Packers defense the same way. And that's exactly right. And when we were trying to contextualize the Packers before the season. And even when they were having some of that success over the last month or so, the thought was, oh, they're so young on offense. This feels like found money. They're ahead of where they were supposed to be.

They're ahead of schedule. There's a lot of reason for optimism because of how young this core is. That's not true about the defense. The defense was supposed to be what could keep them in games as that young group of offensive skill position players and the young quarterback came along at their own pace. That hasn't been the case at all. When they've been winning these games, it's been the offense that's been carrying them and the defense continues to hold them back.

So, again, there need to be some hard conversations about what this is going to look like moving forward because they've invested a lot in some of these guys and it feels like this version of the defense with all these high-priced pieces. I mean, you're going to potentially have to move on from some veterans next year, whether it be Preston Smith, whether it be Devon Dre Campbell, whether it be, I, J. I, J. Alexander's probably going to be there with his contract. But I think that there is going to be a facelift among that group and there are going to be some changes among that group, including the defensive coordinator, because at a certain point, you just keep, you can't keep living in this reality after what you've spent to build that unit.

Same stuff. I mean, they're around the same stuff. That's why it's just, yeah, feeling insane, even just like how the issues that happen. Anyways, but it's so how the Packers played today on offense was kind of how I figured they

would look throughout the rear some moments of explosion and Jordan Love looking amazing and the young players. And then some moments of just like, you know, him spraying a throw. He missed a touchdown early. Missed a touchdown throw. Guys running into the same spot on a row.

route, just the types of things that were we expected. Then you see Tucker Kraft flipping over a guy. They're like, oh my God, but they nailed so many draft picks. It's, they, like this team really got revamped this year and really last year as well. So it's, it's funny how well they can nail these things and how cool the offense feels at times. And it's just a defense just still with so much should be talent, quote unquote, just does not give you that same feeling at all. And it's on the same team. And losing this game is huge.

They're not six and eight. I mean, they absolutely could be out of the playoffs now after losing this game against the Bucks. One in five chance. One of those games as you were circling it on the schedule, being like, all right, they can win this game. They can keep this thing rolling. And so to lose to the Giants and to let Tommy DeVito do what he did in a lot of those moments. And then to do what they did against the bucks today, that's what's so frustrating is that even if you can build some excitement about the offense and what they could be if they were to get into the playoffs, the defense continues to hold them back and consistently holds them back. on the other side of this,

the bucks are in first place in the NFC South, man, and their offense right now is the best offense in the division. If we're rooting for a team to win the NFC South that is going to make that wildcard game as watchable as possible, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the answer to that. Yes, Baker's are walking big play for both teams. So I'm fine with that in the playoffs.

They have cool players. I mean, like they have great offensive weapons. They have some cool defensive players. They bench Devin White, which was interesting. But they looked a lot more sound. So kind of a weird thing going on right there. But yeah, this Bucks team of this NFC South group, it's like, yes, because at least they do some interesting stuff.

They have some fun players. Baker, the Bucks right now are sixth in EPA per dropback this year. They rank sixth. Their success rate is a little bit less than you want it to be. They're not down in and down out. Exactly. It's big place. But I'll bet on that.

I'll bet on Mike Evans, Chris Godwin in the game. that he had today, the way the Rashad White is playing, their offensive line is so much better that I think anyone could have expected coming into the year. And Baker's played really good football. For Baker Mayfield, he has played really good football this year. The bet that they made and having to spend 18 cents on their quarterback room, they made the right bet on him.

He was the guy that was worth picking for everything else that they had on that offense. That has been a pretty darn good unit, all things considered, based on preseason expectations. I think that Dave Canales, their offensive coordinator who's in year one, he's doing some interesting stuff. So good for the Bucks, man. It seems like they might do this and they might sneak in and they deserve it based on the way that they played on that side of the ball. You call, you had the best description of the Broncos offense. What was it, the drunken swing offense? The Bucks kind of feel like a souped up version of that.

Like it's more like, you know, they're on absent or something. Like they, but it's just like they're good, they can get you with an explosive play. They have good players. and Baker gives them chances. It's like, remember we're talking about Mike Evans? It's like, why do you think he's having a good year? It's like Baker gives him a shot. He just throws it up to him at times and they still have Godwin making place.

It's like they, I'm fine with what. I like watching them. Yeah, I enjoy watching them bet more than any other offense in that division. And again, I just did not expect that to be the case coming into the season. But we just had that conversation about the Falcons and why we've landed in this place. So that game and that outcome, a lot of outcomes today, huge day for the Rams. The Rams beat Washington 28 to 20. They're now 7 and 7.

They are the 7 seed in the NFC. So the Vikings losing, the Packers losing, the Rams are in a pretty good spot. So even if we don't get the Packers offense into the playoffs and that potential excitement, it really does feel like we're trending toward an outcome here where we get Matthew Stafford and that Rams offense in. And I think everyone is better off with that being the case. They rock, man. They freaking rock. Stafford was on season on this whole year.

I couldn't keep up. I was like, oh, God, he threw another one. Because I had that game on, like, I don't know why I was paying so much attention because that was the same time Bill's Galboys was happening. But I was just, oh, my God, Stafford rocks right now. The offense rocks. The defense is feisty. I love this Rams team so much.

This offense is so cool, man. Like, they're, how they show one thing one week and then the next week just play off of it, which we talk about all these cool offenses do and everything. But today, they do like a tight-in speed motion preview all season. And then now they do a pass off of that look. And I was like, I was like, just, just every week I'm just clapping like a seal at this offense. Like I just enjoy it.

They've replaced the falcons. Actually, Rams were like this a couple years ago, but they've replaced the Falcons. It's my weekly watch all 22 just so I can be happy. It really does be like him. And that's also awesome because he just didn't look right like three weeks ago. No. And him playing the way that he's playing.

You combine that with what Howard Williams is given them and the way that Stafford is playing. It's going to be fun to watch them if they get in. And if they do end up getting the Lions in the wild card round, you can't ask for anything more. No. Every single bit of narrative, every layer, every single storyline, I'm in. I'm in. I don't care.

It would be impossible to overdo it. Stafford against the Lions, Jared Goff against, playing against Sean McVeigh after getting cast aside, kind of the sliding doors moments of that trade, everything. I'm 100% in if that were to happen. I love that. I know. It would just be so much better with this team in the playoffs. All right. Let's get to the Sunday notebook and hit a few more things that happened this weekend before we get out of here. Really does feel like we are barreling toward a reality here where Brock Purdy is going to be the MVP.

After the game that Dak had today, after Brock Purdy putting up four more touchdowns today, you look at the numbers that the Niners offense is putting up. Really feels like we're probably going this direction and he's going to get it. Even though he said Chris McCaffrey should be the MVP, which I thought was a great moment. moment from Purdy, but it does. The stats are just ridiculous. I think it's the first thing you're going to look at. He has enough throws for people to point at and try and throw on your face. I think also it's just, it felt like this last monthish season with how the

AFC kind of contenders have looked. You know, Lamar's had some up and down moments, at least perception-wise. Josh Allen, Mahomes, those guys. It felt like whoever the number one scene in the NFC was going to be, was going to be, whoever their quarterback was, was going to win MVP. It hurts DAC or Purdy. It kind of just felt like that way and how the 49ers are playing. I mean, this offense is just ridiculous.

Every stat you look at, they're just breaking the graph. And so it's just what else can you point at? Everyone else was just going to point out that anyways. I get him winning based on how everything else is unfolded. Dack's moment today, Dak needed to keep rolling in order to stave him off. I get that. I keep coming back to whatever you think of Brock Purdy,

whatever you think about his MVP case, this season on offense, what the Niners are on offense, we are not talking enough about what Kyle Shanahan has done. We are not doing it. We are not giving him enough credit and not, even if you look at historically what they are. They're one of the best teams ever in the history of DVOA through 15 weeks. And I think that Brock Purdy has done an excellent job of running that offense. He deserves a ton of credit for lifting that offense in ways that other 49ers quarterbacks have not under Kyle Shanahan.

But I also think that as we're looking at why this is happening and you're talking about what Brock Purdy has that other guys don't, it's not to me as much about YAC or about the supporting cast. It's about that this guy that's overseeing this thing, this guy who's built this thing from the way that it's structured to the players, everything, I don't think we properly appreciate that he's one of the best that's ever done this. And this is his masterpiece. piece. What Kyle Shanahan has been as an offensive football coach, if you go back seven, eight,

nine, ten years, even further, what he was doing with the Texans in 08 and 09, go look at those match shop stats. Go look at what he did with RG3 in 2012 when RG3 was a rookie. I talk about the 2014 Cleveland Browns all the time and what the Cleveland Browns were on offense with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. They were a real top ten offense for six weeks of that season before Alex Mack gets hurt. He goes to Atlanta. He has one decent year. Then in 26, he breaks football with Matt Ryan and the numbers of Matt Ryan was putting up. He goes to the Niners. They have to rebuild this thing for a couple years, a couple down seasons.

Then they almost win a Super Bowl with Jimmy G. And then last year, as they get to the end of this, when they make the Christian McCaffrey trade, this is the end point. And he has done all of this as people have poached his staff over and over and over again. He's sitting there last year with him, Bobby Sloick, and an entirely new set of offensive position coaches. And by the end of the year with McCaffrey, they had the best offensive football. They might have won the fucking Super Bowl if their quarterback hadn't gotten hurt in the NFC championship game. So yes, is Brock Purdy with everything else that's gone on, probably the MVP in the NFL?

Yes. But I think as we're looking at this and thinking about historically what this 49ers offense is, what we should appreciate it and what sets them apart, this is the final stage of one of the greatest offensive football coaches who has ever lived. And I know that he may not get the credit until they actually do this and until he kind of exercises some of those playoff demons. But I don't think we've talked about that enough as we've huffed and puffed about what Brock Purdy is within this offense. That's it. That's my rant. This is his vision.

This, what I think is so cool about all these weapons and we say, oh, my God, they have so many great players. Oh, they're the Monstars. They're the Avengers and all that. Every team could have attained these guys. You know, Ayuk was a late first rounder. Okay, but Kittle, day three pick. Debo's second rounder. Purdy, of course, was Mr. Irrelevant.

You look at just use check. Anyone could have traded for CMC. They did it. Joanne Jennings, all these guys were attainable, but he kind of handpicked him to be in those roles. And so that's why you want to feel even more credit. Of course, you know, you say John Lynch as well. But, you know, you kind of know which guys.

I've got a pretty big hand in how the personnel has been built in that place. I've said all year, at least at the beginning of year, absolving myself of all the debate, that I just feel like blocks a lot of the appreciation of this 40-N-Iers team. I'm glad you kind of just went on your rant because even that DVOA stat. This team's freaking rocks. They're awesome. The offense is amazing. The defense is good.

They have stars everywhere. They have an amazing play caller doing cool, innovative stuff that's executed like to perfection. The players executed perfectly. Like their details are really well coached. We just talked about the Falcons. I said, I love their designs. I don't love the execution. The 49ers do both.

And I think that's why I get frustrated. I'm Brocknostic. And like, yeah, if he wins MVP, I get it because look at the stats. I totally get it. And he's the quarterback. But I just, my frustration always comes. It's like, let's talk about the cool stuff. Who cares about your little debate?

Like, it's turned into me like, die hard as a Christmas movie where people are just like, it's just a talking. I just want to watch Die Hard. Yes. Now people are just like making a talking point. They make it like an identity. Like, they make it a part of their identity. And it's like, dude, you just, now it's just talking.

points that are regurgitated. It's like this is and it's like no one actually has thoughts on it anymore. It's like politics. So it's just like one of these things versus like, let's appreciate the cool stuff. The stuff that's actually happening on the field. So I'm glad you went on your rant. That's my little rant about this. But that that's my thing about this is that again, I'm not going to the yak stats. I'm not going to how often he's throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage. I'm not going to, oh, well, he's got all these great players around him. I think that as we have this debate, it's not a black and white thing. It's not, oh, you can't win an MVP if you have great players around you or you can't win an MVP if you have a great play caller. But all of these

things, there's a matter of degree to them. What this skill-fellation group is is one of the best we've ever seen. And what he has, Kyle Shanahan, at his best, what Kyle Shanahan has built in terms of this unbelievable death star of an offense is more devastating structurally than anything Andy Reed ever did with Patrick Mahomes. I think it's important to understand that, that the way this thing is is to me really unlike anything I have seen in 15 years covering the NFL. And it's been true since McCaffrey got there. So again, as we're sitting here and trying to appreciate what we're watching, I wish we appreciated that a little bit more. I wish that was more part of the conversation. I wish as we're having the diehard as a Christmas movie debate, look at all of the movies

that tried to be diehard. That's what this is. It's the influence and the greatness and the vision that to me makes it special, and I just don't think we've spent enough time on that as we've talked about that team over the last 15 weeks. Maybe that's on me, because I, in my mind, what I go back to is, everyone knows Kyle Shanahan is great.

Everyone knows, Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches ever. And maybe I need to check myself and my biases and my assumptions there because I don't think that gets brought up enough. I think too many people have a hand waved who he is and just said, ah, the playoff failings in 28 to 3,

fuck that. This guy is special. What he has built and what he has done and the vision he has is special. And I think that we are seeing what that thing is at his best. And guess what? Until he wins the Super Bowl, no one's going to be willing to crown him. But right now, it feels like they are barreling toward that at a pretty ridiculous speed. Yes. Yeah. I get it, man. Every year, different situation, different things crop up, different quarterbacks, different line configurations, and they still produce. They always produce. and they're always at the cutting edge of whatever the trend is going to be. And just sometimes I think I totally agree with you that it just gets over glossed. It glossed over and it shouldn't because, yeah, he's one of the best to ever do it.

All right. Let's keep me in a bad mood here as we talk about the Browns beating the Bears. Another really impressive win for the Browns just when it comes to what they've endured this year, right? When the amount of injuries that they've endured, the amount of guys on injured reserve, the amount of salary on injured reserve. This team is on offensive right tackle number three, left tackle number two. Joel Betonio goes out today. Grant Delpit's hurt.

They have had so many guys go down and they just continue to be competitive and stringed together wins. And the Bears played a role in that today. And the Bears played a role in handing one of these to them. But I don't think that we've appreciated enough what this Brown's team, this Brown's staff has trudged through this year to build this record. and cement themselves as a pretty definite playoff team. All they do is win games.

We like the coaching staff, and I think they are proving their merit with all, like you just brought up, the injuries. You got Joe Flacco skipping rocks back there. And anyone else knows that his throwing style is changed. It's hilarious. Because I think his arm's tired. So he doesn't want to go over the top anymore? It's just more sidearm? It's more sidearm.

I think he throws practice, and he's like, oh, I can't throw 200 balls a day anymore. So it's like, okay, let's get these out. but O-Line gets decimated. They still figure out a plan. They have PJ Walker playing quarterback. They have DTR playing quarterback. Okay, what's due screen? Their version of gum and toothpicks offense with some very high-priced players too.

But they, like, why isn't Joku going off? Because that's what works for them now. Like the fact that they can pivot on offense, we've talked so much about the defense. We know what they can do. But again, they're just really well coached. And yeah, I think I enjoy watching them because that game was actually low-key a lot of fun for me as a neutral fan. I'm sorry because of what some of the,

what Bear stuff was doing and Fields early on. And then I just like what the Browns do, because on offense, everything they do makes sense. How do they attack the Jaguars last week? Play action, play action, play action, play action, screen, play action. Some of that's because of what they have to do, but also it's because they knew that was the weakness. And I think every week they're going to find that weakness

and give themselves a shot at the very least. They won today while throwing three interceptions. And they won the game. And Fields threw an interception at the end of a half. but that doesn't really count. I mean, the Bears handily won the turnover battle in this game and didn't come away with the win. And part of that is because of them, their inability to convert in any sort of short-errorist

situation in the final quarter of the game. But the other part is that they couldn't do anything on offense. The Brown's defense was suffocating again. They are always going to keep them in these games. And if the offense makes enough plays, and today they did is that one Cooper touchdown, two or three completions to Injoku, and that's enough for them to win occasionally. because of how good this defense is, even with some of the pieces removed. So it was a frustrating, just maddening game by the Bears down there at the end,

including the Hail Mary that should have been caught and could have been a game-winning play. But I still think the Browns deserve a lot of credit for how resilient they have been for long stretches of this season. And they got the turnovers, but the Browns, I mean, the fact that the Browns' offense moved a little bit against a frisky Bears defense that's been playing like a top 10 unit. It's a good unit. It is just a good unit. I understand that they've, whatever, they've played some bad teams.

That bear's defense right now is just a good unit. Yep. All three levels. They really are. And yeah, the Brown's got ahead. And then I was like at first, my first couple notes in this game because I have my like original ones

before I kind of prep for the show. And I was like the formula with that defense and fields running around. It's so much better than like Rex Grossman. And like having Rex like, you know, throw 15 balls like, you know, maybe a couple. I always have been some guy that runs like a bigger Mike Vick at times. Like actually that's that formula, it's a lot more exciting at least,

even if sometimes doesn't work out in a win. Also, Jenkins getting hurt didn't help. That felt like the whole thing came apart when he got hurt. It was going to be an interesting kind of weird end to the season for the Bears if they kept stringing these wins together because it was going to be really hard with their defense playing at this level. And if they were to maybe potentially sneak into the playoffs or get close to it,

I think that you'd have to give real consideration to bringing the staff back because they had made a real case. I mean, when their defense showed the progress that they had made and the improvement that they had made, I think that Mattie Rufus was really making a statement for why he probably deserved to be back. Losing this game, losing the Lions game the way that they did, even with some of the progress on defense, it feels like it's probably going to reach a point where they're going to clean house and they're going to start over. And I don't necessarily think that's the worst thing. I think that potentially pairing the number one pick in the draft with another warm-seeded staff worried me. And losing games like this may make that decision a little bit easier if you're in management when it comes down to the end of the season.

Yeah. Every bear's path they can take, coach, the quarterback, the picks, I can make an argument for, which I think is going to be one of the most interesting things this next couple months because I think it's going to be some very hotly debated things going on in Chicago land for coming up to the next. month or two. Let's talk about another huge win in the wild card race. The Bengals beat the Vikings 27 to 24. They are now eight and six and the six seed in the AFC. Their offense in the second half of that game was incredibly impressive.

They had a 62% offensive success rate in the second half. Browning was 19 of 24 in the second half against that Vikings defense. We talked about a ton in our previous show about how good that unit has been all season and especially lately, I come away again, very impressed with what this staff has done with Jake Browning in his limited time as a starter. Yeah, the Vikings defense, and I know I just blitzed everybody with notes on that on Thursday. I was so excited to talk about them. What I think is what's so cool about them is they, again, is that QB parameter. You know, all right, do you push the ball?

Do you make quick decisions? Do you make the right decisions over and over? And today, it felt to me it was the stat when the Vikings dropped eight, they dropped eight 10 times against Jake Browning when you dropped back. Browning's average air yards on those past attempts was 16.9 yards. So usually drop eight and blitzing. It heats you up or makes you push the ball. They want you to, they're baiting you to try and throw underneath. That's the Vikings' entire defense philosophy.

Beat you to throw quick and short. Don't want you get too aggressive plays. make you make quick decisions and limit the run game because of the looks you do. Browning was fine. He pushed the ball over and over. And again, it really just, they were in rhythm. Talk about rhythm. This offense was just clicking, moving the ball, pound on the rock, nickel and

diming, pushing the ball. So again, I mean, the defense, but this offense, I always said. The defense, without those Nick Mullen's turnovers, the Bengals lose this game. Oh, yeah. Vikings had the third best success rate of any offense in the league this week. They moved the ball consistently. If Nick Mullins is throwing interceptions on the ground to B.J. Hill, the Vikings probably win this game. So for as encouraging and as exciting as the Bengals offense has been, even with Jake Browning, the defense still makes me very concerned about what they might have to do in the playoffs.

But it feels like this team might get into the playoffs. And after losing Joe Burrow, I think that's pretty damn impressive. The offense is playing at a capable level that I'm not like, where I'm like, oh, God, we got Browning in there. It's like, hey, we still be fun to watch because, yeah, they, again, another team. with good players. Yeah. And I just love what they've done. Yeah.

I love, they're well coached. I love the plan offensively. And just some of this, that third and 21 completion to chase on that like long dagger play in the fourth quarter, stuff like that. Where they just, I love the plan they have for so many different scenarios that they're facing. And it helps that when you need it, T. Higgins is just capable of dunking on someone at the goal.

I mean, that play is one of the biggest F you plays in the. the NFL this year. I tweeted a video of it. It's essentially like that shack dropped stuff dunk against Chris Dudley. That's what it felt like in that moment. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But how about the wheel route Browning hit to chase on the first drive? I think it was. It was a freaking dime. And he got smoked on it because Joe Mixed still is a little if he in protection. He went completely the wrong way as this guy's running right at his quarterback. But oh my God. But the fact that he's capable of that is like, okay. Sure. I've been, I've been very impressed. I've been very impressed with him and very impressed with this staff in general.

We said this after the game that they played against the Steelers. It was a few weeks ago that Bill's Eagles game was the same day. We're talking about the Bengals. And I said, I don't want this to be a situation where over the last month, we handwave everything else that's wrong with this team because we just say, oh, Joe Burrow got hurt. It's fine. I didn't want to get to that place because that's not where they're supposed to be. they're supposed to be closer to the finish line than that.

So them playing like this on offense and the staff showing us this on offense, this is the fight and the competence that I wanted to see out of the Bengals, even if Joe Burrow wasn't going to play. Because if you're a team that's supposed to be a contender every single year and you're one of the class teams in the NFL, you're supposed to be able to hang on even if you lose your starting quarterback. And the fact that they have, I think, makes me feel better about some of the ways I thought about this Bengals organization and this

bangles staff and this new regime. It was not misguided. It was not unfounded. That confidence and that optimism that I had about that. They showed, they're showing a lot of heart as an organization. It's not just Burrough and his friends. You know, and I think that, you know, when Tom Brady got hurt in 2008, Patriots didn't fold up. I mean, they didn't make the playoffs, but they went 10 and 6, I believe. It's just again. But again, that's what the good teams do. They keep fighting. They find ways to win. Last thing here, the AFC South has gotten very close and very interesting.

The Colts beat the Steelers in a game where they just outclass the Steelers. I mean, that Colts offense and what they've been able to do piece together. Michael Pittman missed a huge chunk of that game. The fact that they've shown what they have this season without Anthony Richardson is remarkable. And the Texans hold on, beat the Titans in overtime. They are now eight and six when a game without. C.J. Stroud, and they are much, very much in the mix to get in in the AFC playoff. So two big wins by teams that have punched, I think, far above their weight this season in very different

ways. Two first year regimes, two regimes that we're not supposed to be in the playoff conversation. And if I'm a Colts or a Texans fan right now, I feel pretty damn good about where these teams are and about where these teams are going with these people in charge. And Jacks fans should go, are you guys kidding me again? Like, you guys actually could be a competitive. No, but you, I think both of these teams nailed these coaches and just how they played. Again, both teams punching above their weight. I thought when the Texans was strout out, I was like, oh boy, oh boy, this could be ugly. And there was times it was rough. But again, they found a way to win. I keep saying that phrase, but that's what this is the part of the season.

This is how you get to the playoffs. And they have a pass rush that's getting home. I brought that sack stat earlier, that knockdown stat earlier about the dolphins, but they're up there as well. The Texans are. And yeah, and then they find answers on all. offense, but I think the Colts, too, is, it's so funny watching this offense. Again, they can feel simplistic. I shouldn't say simplistic. It's just that they do not, uncomplicated things, uncomplicated answers. And they just, again, this coach, this play caller knows the right buttons to press. But when they played man, if you play man coverage against them, which you have first thing, where you're like, Garner Minchew, the Colts, yeah, I'll play man coverage. Yeah, you're not

worried to go out the scope of players. Yeah. They're ninth in success rate against man coverage, as just overall 9th and EPA per dropback, but they have 17 explosive runs against man coverage. Next highest is the Cowboys with 11. And it's because they have their indicators with man. This is what they do. This is what Stuyken does. This way you do with the Eagles as well is that you have man coverage, we're going to run a pick RPO concept. We're going to run this run play that if you don't have the box count right, if one guy runs out of the box, it's going to hit for a huge gash.

So what they're doing on offense, both these teams are doing on offense. They should feel good. and the Colts defense has a lot of fun players. So, yeah, I feel good about both of these teams around and they should too. Yeah, it's hard not to. All you want after you hire a new coach, after you draft a quarterback in the first round, is come away from the season feeling optimistic about the direction that you're headed. And I don't know if it would be possible to feel more optimistic about both of these teams.

I think the Texans, if they were to get in, are still the most dangerous just because of what their offense can do with Stroud. And I know, I know that the Dell injury sucks. and they've lost some of that juice that they have. But I think that the Colts offense is definitely more smoking mirrors than the Texans offense has been. I don't mean that in a derogatory way. It's a compliment. They had to play that way.

Yes. But whoever, even if I do feel that way about the Colts or about the Texans, I do, there's a small gap there. I'm still extremely impressed by what the Colts have done. Shane Steichen should be in the coach of the year conversation. And everybody that roots for both of these teams should feel very good about where they are. Yeah. Now we just get Anthony Richardson healthy. drop him back into that thing.

I think things will get really interesting down there. All right. That is all we've got. Fun Kiefer in the Beats this week. Jordan Rod Reed coming on to talk about the Rams and what they're doing right now. Deshaun Reed talking about the Raiders and what they're putting together with Antonio Pierce. I mean, the future of that organization looks like. Daniel Popper coming out to talk about the Chargers and a interesting week down there in Los Angeles.

And what potentially comes next for L.A. for Justin Herbert and for that organization. For now, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll be back all week. Talk to you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.