The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 15 Recap: Saints silence Tom Brady, Lions shock the Cardinals & explaining the AFC playoff picture

Episode Date: December 20, 2021

The NFL's week 15 was full of sloppy play, backup starters, and unexpected wins. Robert Mays and Nate Tice run down the biggest headlines coming out of Sunday, from the Saints shutting out Tom Brady and the Bucs, to the Lions shocking the Cardinals to get their second win under Dan Campbell and more + Robert and Nate attempt to bring some clarity to the AFC playoff race following the Ravens loss and wins by the Bengals and Steelers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me tonight is my good friend Nate Tyson. Nate, how you doing, buddy? We survived. We got through it. Andy defrained it.

Crawled through that muck, crawled through it, and we got out of it. Here we are, Sunday night. Oh, boy. We've talked about this before. I don't do a lot of looking at the schedule in far in advance. We talk about the games that we're going to talk about on Friday's show early in the week, midweek. But I don't look at the whole schedule usually until the day before or so. But yesterday I went to the Colts game.

So I was a little bit behind. So I was looking at it this morning. I was like, oh, no. I saw you tweet it. It was terrible. I saw when your life opened off. I mean, if you're looking at that early slate of games, the best game is maybe Titan Steelers. And we'll get to that.

We'll talk about all of the ugliness from today. We're going to talk about the Cardinals' loss. We're going to talk about what the hell is going on in the AFC playoff picture. There's a lot for us to dig into from what was an ugly Sunday. But let's start with the ugliness we just had to watch. I cannot, even if the Bucks struggle with the Saints, and they do, and we'll talk about some of that, getting blanked by that team, even without the receivers, even with the background and the history he's had against Dennis Allen over the last couple of years, it's kind of a shocking result, no? Yeah, a goose egg. I think it's the first time Brady's ever been shut up.

out in the NFL. It's hard. It's hard. Especially when it wasn't, yeah, the injuries, of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but everyone's got injuries. But also just like, yeah, it's hard not to just look at least a field goal, get yourself in scoring range. You know, they missed a couple of them.

So that also hurts. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that does hurt. But at least like, just, but that even has to go against you as well. But it's just like, it's hard. It's hard to put up 40 and it's hard to get skunked. It really is.

Like just something at the end, like a little like, give me like a bullshit drive at the end to get you some scores. a two minute drive at the before the half, just something. But yeah, that's really hard against an offense that we were feeling pretty good about going into this week. Yes, I know, again, injuries. But it was, yeah, it was just their bogey team. Dennis Allen, those Saints, they really are. But as on top of it, it just kind of sums up what this weekend was.

We say any given Sunday, but now it's any given Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. And that's kind of how it felt this weekend. So Brady gets sacked four times, hit seven times. That has something to do with the receiving talent, just because he's not willing to get rid of the ball as quick. I'm sure he is not seeing it as well. But it's a rough day for that front against a pretty good Saints defensive line. I mean, Cam Jordan had two sacks.

Gets to 100. Feels like your All-Fame case is getting stronger and stronger by the day. There we go. There we go. He was looking at the pod. He was like, I'm going to help you, Nate. I'm going to make you look smart. You list, look at the numbers.

Brady's completion percentage over expectation today was negative 13.4. Here are the guys that were worse. Cam Newton. Okay. Zach Wilson and Ben Rathesberger. That's it. Oh, yeah. Not good company for Mr. Brady considering the season that he's had.

The unholy trinity right there. In four regular season games against the Saints since Brady got to Tampa, he's average negative. 0.18 EPA per dropback. All right? Overall, he's at 0.14, which is the sixth highest mark in the league. That negative 0.18 is the same that Dwayne Haskins is the same that Dwayne Haskins and Sam Darnold have put up over this entire time.

So against every other team, Brady is like a top five quarterback against the Saints. He's the worst quarterback in the league over the last two seasons. Possible. I even compared it today. It's the movie 300 where you see, like just seeing all the pressure happen, and especially with the Saints only rushing forward. Like that's why there's such a good matchup for what the Bucks want to do. Is that like it was Xerces getting cut in the movie 300.

Like he was like God bleeding. And he was like, shocked. That's how I feel watching it. It's just like, you don't expect it. And then they look so mortal. And that was, yeah, they really got taken to them. I mean, it wasn't luck. It was, it was really, it was an ass kicking.

All this being said, they lose Evans and Godwin early in this game. You're playing without both of those guys. I mean, we're talking about them as maybe the two, maybe the best wide receiver duo in the entire league. So now I think the question isn't, did the saints figure out the bucks? Is this really a concern? To me, it's, are they going to be healthy? Like are these guys going to be back? Because if they start losing people like that and now we're playing with Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller against the Packers on division around weekend, that's a real concern to me.

And that, I mean, as good as the run game has been, like, or better, I should say, that's not what they're thriving in. This offense is meant to throw it 40 times and push the ball over and over and over. And that's, I mean, they really are the best receiver pairing because it's just such a nice complimentary pair. Totally. True X, true slot and can bounce out to Z. They can just do whatever they want those two. And then also, you know, work the tight ends as well. But that's like, that's exactly it. It's that I don't, they haven't announced anything, right? With the injuries, I just, I just saw it was out, out hamstring and knee, right? Well, hamstring for Evans and knee for Godwood. Yeah. But shoot, but like, you don't know how serious those are. Not the timing to be having that. Week 15. Yes, there's an extra week in the regular season. But I mean, both of these. conferences or bloodbass. It's like you can't, no one's getting breathing room. Well, now they don't have the number one seed anymore. Now the Packers are sole possession of the number one seed.

And it go into Lambo and having the playoffs go through Lambo again. I mean, the Bucks did it once. But we're going to talk about a certain Packers quarterback a little bit later in the show. I wouldn't want to go there again. So no. An impressive game from the Saints. And now the Saints are very much alive now. I mean, them winning that game puts them right smack dab in the NFC playoff race.

I want to say during the broadcast, the percentages they had on it were they had a 50-50 chance now of making the playoffs. And they're 7-7. I mean, they have the 7-seat in the NFC right now as it stands. A lot of things could change between now and the next 72 hours. As we know. I mean, the Vikings, two more teams potentially could be 7-and-7, at least one more well because Washington plays the Eagles and the Vikings play the Bears. So it's going to be muddled again at the bottom there. but the Saints really did themselves a favor by winning that game.

So we will, I'm sure, be checking up on the NFC playoff race in the next couple weeks here. We're going to do a lot of AFC talk today. Before we get to any of that, though, let's get to you at my attention. Gentlemen, you had my curiosity. Now you have my attention. Not a lot of options this week. Right. Not a lot of things that we wanted to shine a light on because it was just so enjoyable.

It really made me sit up in my chair in a way that I was like, man, football was great. It was not a lot of that today. It was the most boring conversation we had midday, I think, of the whole year. Oh, my God. We just, I just heard you clicking and me clicking just kind of going like, I guess we'll scroll, scroll, what are we going to talk about? Scroll box score. Yeah. First thing I want to talk about is the Cowboys defense.

And we talked about, we talked about like a Parsons last week. Yeah. And here's why I wanted to talk about the Cowboys defense in this particular sense. I know they played the Giants. I know that they beat up on Mike Glennon and later Jake Fromm. You sweating out your cover with Jake Fromm driving at the last thing is one of my favorite parts of the day. In a day that was not that entertaining, I was extremely entertained by you losing your mind at the possibility of Jake Fromm hit in the backdoor cover. I was like, oh my God, Jake Fromm's going to cement this bet.

Wait, what's the live total? Oh my God. And it was like he's driving, knifing him left and right. It was like, I couldn't believe it. I had a tweet, the departed gift where it's. is like just effing kill me. Just kill me. Like this is what I'm going through right now.

Just kill me. God. We 15, man. I understand it wasn't the most impressive opponent. And the performance, there's a lot of context to it. But my thought today when I was watching the Cowboys is this is the most entertaining defense in football. There are so few defenses in the league, even if defenses are good, right?

Like Buffalo's defense was a vice for the first two-thirds of this season. They lose Trey White. There's a lot of different things. defenses tend to fall off over the course of the year, whatever. I don't remember many other defenses over the last year or so that I've made a appointment viewing. Like, I want to sit down and watch this defense every single game no matter who they're playing. And I don't know how good they'll be when they're playing the Bucks or the Packers and the

playoffs. Again, it's hard to play defense in 2021. But this unit overall, I just want to get my popcorn out when I watch them because top to bottom, they are so much fun to just sit in. enjoy at this point. They attack you. Yes. Keep coming at you, at you, at you, not just up front.

And just because they can bring it up front that the D.Bs are able to play so aggressively. And I mean, they, anytime they run the ball, it's like, oh, that's a big run play for the offense. It's like, no, they're all punching the ball out. They're just trying to, like, create fumbles. And it's like, that kind of sums up this whole team. Like, I had this game streaming on my laptop, YouTube TV. Oh, by the way, thank you for making the deal with Disney because I don't have to hear it about the bachelor.

right in a couple days so yay that that's good priorities but like as i would just have it that kind of like i'm listening audibly like that would be the only uh game i i could hear like i got red zone channel muted or whatever and it was just like one time it was like randy gregory demarkas lawrence michael parsons travon dick like lane van derash like all these guys were just getting shoutouts and i was like man this sounds like the and one mixtape tour when he's just like the emc was just going like the professor like you know like that's what it sounds like Like it's just one guy after guy. It totally feels like that.

It's because they all just kind of take turns. Yeah. And that's the coolest part about it. I mean, the Lawrence sack that turned into that ridiculous pop up 50 yards in the air. It was awesome. It's the second time I'll make this joke today. It's like when a seal, it's like when a killer whale kicks a seal up like 80 yards into the air out of the ocean. That's the way that ball looked in the air.

And that's possible because he's inside. So they rotate those guys into where they are in those pass rush packages, right? Parsons, last week against Washington. he was coming from depth inside. This week, they have Parsons and Gregory on each edge. Lawrence is over the right guard but to the outside, which makes the center slide to the left. Now it's essentially just Demarcus Lawrence,

one of the best pass rushers in football, one on one against the Giants' right guard. Went poorly to see if you're curious about it. Did not go well for the Giants. And then he just punches out casually another one later in the game that they take away. And then the play that Michael Parsons made near the goal line, near the pile line. Running with the wheel.

Wild. I mean, this is, he's still, he's a rookie in space. The awareness is not where you want it to be five years from now. But the athleticism is insane. It's similar to the play he made against the Saints when the same kind of deal. Following a wheel up the left sideline has to recover but has the speed to recover. On this play, they have, they line up the running. back wide to the right, man zone tell.

They are in man coverage. And they run a pick play to get the inside receiver, Kenny Gallaudet, on Michael Parsons, down the right sideline. Somehow he recognizes it, tracks it down, and gets a PBA without drawing a pass interference at the goal line to force a field goal at type. That is so few guys in the league period could make that play, let alone a guy who's been the best pass rusher in football on a per play basis over the course of the entire season. He's running step for step, but then it's like, okay, anyone can be fast, but it's not anyone can be fast, but in the NFL, anyone can be fast, but it's like he has the body control to kind of go, okay, I'm not going to run right into you and get this cheap PI.

He's not out of control. He's not out of control because he's a freak. That's exactly what it is. He's just an absolute freak. And really, I, this is, I agree with you. This is a point of viewing just because they're so fast and aggressive because it's just, it's a different type of defense than we're seeing maybe other good defenses are this year, which is the, the squeeze type. So it's, you know, like the Chiefs defense can be exciting right now because it's spags and it's just all this heat and different stuff coming.

And they just kind of well coached at this point in time. But it's like this team, it's, they're taking it to offenses. You can look at it. If you look at the numbers, they're up and near the top of the league in man coverage rate. They're in the top of the league in single high rate. I mean, they are playing an aggressive style of defense in a way that the Chiefs aren't. The Chiefs, even with some of the Blitz stuff and even with some of the funky fronts, they're a much more conservative defense compared to the way the Cowboys are playing in this exact moment.

Yes. Yes. It's, oh, man. And you can't, like a different guy, like Jaron Curse. Like, it's like he's been a revelation for them because they get to use him in a good spot. They don't need him to be a guy, but he could step up when he needs to. He had a play where he ran down, I think, Barclay from the backside. I don't want to be the mix up just like the commentator did. How sad is that? I know. How sad is that? When he did it, I was like, oh my God, we've gotten to a point now. Because this is one of my things when you watch running backs, you can tell the pop is different with guys, right? Even if you can tell. Sometimes they just touched the ball. I remember when Aaron Jones first came into the league. And every time he touched the ball was like, ooh, this feels different. And that's why I wanted him to play more.

The fact that you could even almost confuse Devante Booker and Sequan Barkley when they have the ball in their hands now, I don't care what the numbers are and how similar they are. That's sad. Like that is, that breaks. my heart, but that's where we are. That's the best way we put it in number two overall pick. And it's just like, because he was, oh, I know, it's just such a talented guy. And then when this other guy's breaking out the open and it's like, you see, Booker breaking out in the open and the fact that you can just go, oh, man, that might be Barclay because

he's not pulling away. He doesn't pull away anymore. It's like, oh, no, it's even worse. But if it was Barkley or Booker on this one run, you got Jayron curse running them down from the opposite because they brought him on a pressure, I think. But this guy used to be a safety at Clemson's. in, he ended up going late. And this guy is, you know, the original freak's nephew, Javonkers his nephew.

And this is what this guy is. I mean, he's the longest dude. Like, he's just, it's just so long. And they use them to cover tight ends. And they, like, just having this kind of like, they don't need them. But the fact that they have them, it just speaks to the defense because they just have so much star power. I keep, that's the only way I can describe this defense. It's just stars.

Like, and just one after another, these guys make place. And then they got these super role players that are like, oh, I got a one-on-one. All right, I'm going to make a play now. Oh, I got a run where two guys are blowing back the guards. Oh, okay, I'll just make this tackle off for one yard. Oh, I look cool. Hey, you know, look at me. And it's like, that's what the good this defense is.

And I mean, at beginning of the year, Diggs was a defensive player to your candidate. And then it's like now the, you know, the rookie. Yeah. Like, it's like, we, now we're just not talking about them because now the front's so fun, but that just speaks to this whole defense. And we're not going to talk about the offense right now. but it's like this, I mean, this team can hang with anybody. But that's why I want to talk about it.

Because the fact that they're winning these games and that they're, they feel dangerous and they're worth watching and they're exciting because of the defense is just the weirdest outcome for what we thought this season was going to be. I never in a million years, even if we thought the defense could be fine. I never thought, man, I can't wait to watch the Cowboys defense today. And I feel that way every single week. And they're not just exciting. They are number one in EPA per play on defense. They've been the most efficient defense in the league this year. Do you think they're the best defense in football right now?

I do. I think they might be. They have a different speed than everybody else. They just have that speed. So weird. Yeah, right? We've said it a million times. We said if they were average, we're excited about this Cowboys team.

And now they're the friggin number one defense. And they look like it. It's not like where it's like, oh, that's just good scheme. It's like their players are just playing so fast, so aggressive that every offense for every single snap you have to go all right where's 90 at okay where's 11 at okay every single snap where's 94 at they have to make these guys work and then they can take advantage of that but with what they do it's it's awesome stuff it's so much fun to watch i give me a play to crow about dan quinn i did not think it was an inspired choice i was like this is not that exciting and he's running a completely

different style of defense than he had in the past it's so much more aggressive it's so much more fun i was wrong about how great he would be for them i mean this has been It's perfect. A really nice result. All right. It has. It's time now for the State Farm, surprisingly great performance of the week,

presented by State Farm, the fight in Dan Campbell's, the Detroit Lions, 30 to 12 over the Cardinals, and they earned it. This was not a game where there were some fluky plays. I mean, they did not play a perfect football game,

and they still won handily. I was going to say, It's just like they were well coached. And that's what they've been this entire season. Even if these guys are not good. Yeah, Kleefe Raymond running third down designers for him and Josh Reynolds and Amon Ross St. Brown, who I did like in the draft, but he was as like a role player catching leak routes. Like this is all, but that leak route is a perfect example of their offense.

And I have a third down example too is it makes sense to run a leak route with him because they have them inside so much blocking. They tie everything together and it's good design. Everything just makes sense. I always say zero fat, especially for quarterback play. Like, oh, he has zero fat on his read, zero fat on his movement. This offense and defense has zero fat on it. Every guy, even if these guys, I'm learning their names, like it's the runnerback.

I'm blanking on his name. He's able, like he's in. Greg Reynolds, I believe is his name. Mr. Reynolds. Another Reynolds. He's in past protection. And because the details matter for him, he's able to release early on a third down. Rather than you see a lot of scrub running backs because they get no reps and running back coaches and offensive line coaches don't really work with them.

And also they're like, oh, shit, I got to play you. They work with these guys. And you can tell they do because he's getting out on check releases as opposed to hanging, looking for blitzes and hanging in the box. You see so many bad teams where the runnerback is just mucking up the pocket because they can't get out. They don't know what the hell they're doing. These guys release and their golf could just check it down and it turns to do a first down. I'm like thirds and sevens. And like the defensive play I want to bring up.

is this is just the opponent scouting is we we talked about the cardinals offense a couple weeks ago they love mesh it's an error rate offense as far as passing game they they love mesh and they get to empty they move their guys around and then they run mesh the lines mugged them up and then mugged it up so they make it was an empty empty set from the cardinals so it's five air protection automatically they run a full slide because it's mugged up and that's what typically offensive lines do it's one of the answers you can have and in those instances the end man on the line of scrimmage turns hot so it's like if We slide to the right. The quarterback knows I have to beat the guy on the left that's coming.

If we slide full left, I have to beat the guy on the right. That's the plus one they have to account for. So they, lines knew this. So they've run this pressure. They show this pressure. Cardinals full slide. They get a free runner. And then they drop everybody.

They just drop seven right into the throwing lanes. And there is nobody open. They wait for the crossers, wait for the dig behind it. And then they ended up in a sack. It's like, oh, man, just well coached, well scouted. and all these guys get to play fast because they know what the hell they're doing because the coaches got got their backs. It's the defense.

There's so many impressive plays today. The one that I thought was just like, I was like, man, that's great, was the fourth down incompletion to Antoine Wesley in the goal line where it's, they're running a slant. They're trying to run a pick play. And the two guys passed it off beautifully. And the two guys who passed it off, I had to look up their names, A.J. Parker and Will Harris. Sure.

But that's what's happening. And Craig Reynolds, I think, is number 46. I want to say Will Harris is number 41. One of those two guys were as a DB. And that's what we're talking about here. These are back-of-roaster fringe NFL players, guys who've spent their entire careers clinging to their jobs. Kleefe Raymond is a perfect example of that. Josh Reynolds got cut by the Titans.

You couldn't even name a receiver for the Titans right now. And he got cut by the Titans this year. Those are the types of players that we're talking about. and they're playing extremely hard and extremely well. There was a little screen they completed to St. Brown when he was in the backfield. It was like a little fort down play where they motioned him out of the back field. On that play, Reynolds drives Byron Murphy like 12 yards down the field. They had Khalif Raymond as the point man in the trips on that play.

He's trying to block. Kleeve Raymond weighs less than me. Like definitely weighs less than me right now. We make jokes that he was a one-trick pony. You knew he was in and he would just go deep. Speed. Yes. Speed.

and he's doing detail stuff like that. Like that's what the lines are doing with these guys. Charles Harris is another. I mean, Charles Harris has played for every team. I know he was a high draft pick, but Charles Harris has been around. And those are the types of guys they're getting production from.

Romeo Quar is gone. Treyflower is hurt. Jeff Akuta's hurt. And it doesn't seem to matter. I mean, what they've been able to get and the production they've been able to get from just guys that are just shuffling in and out and how collectively hard they're playing,

but also how well coached they are. I mean, so many different of the, so many different of those past concepts, I love the touchdown to Reynolds. Like just the formation there. It's three by one where he's a single receiver on the right side. So the single high safety is shaded over to the trip side. They run a little skinny post to him. And it's on time. Golf was really good today.

He was. He played really good football today. And just watching them. And the other player, the last one I want to bring up, it was a third and five with like 53 seconds left. And I think it was in the first quarter. And they were, Cardinals were in a mugged up look. He had Reynolds on one side of him, Gough did, and he changed the play.

And he was like Samuel, Samuel, and he moved him over to the other side, and they ran pinpole back to the left, and they got a chunk play on third and five on a run play that he checked into. It's like, that's really good. Like, that's really, really good stuff. And I just feel like when you watch them,

it's hard not to get this kind of fuzzy feeling as someone who appreciates football when you watch the Lions play because it's good stuff, and they play hard. And that's really all you can ask of them. Yeah. We knew they would bomb this year.

Everyone knew this. But it's like seeing some low budget movie do well. Like you're like, hey, they hate that. It's got story structure. Yeah. Really? That's it. The last are plum house team.

That's exactly it. It's the reservoir dogs of movies or of football teams. But that's exactly what it is. It's because we talked about everyone here. We just said, hey, they play hard and they get a top two pick. like top one pick like that's that's the lion's game plan for this year but now it's like they're winning these games like it's turning the other way and it's cool because they played hard we can tell the anecdotal stories all the time like i do with the against the rams and he's

pumping up the corner the backup corner after he gets burned but that just i mean they all this whole year they've done sound concepts we a couple weeks into the year we had a pod and i was we kind of just laughed and we're like hey the lion's did a couple cool things and you're like hey that's the goal do a couple cool things play hard and you know bomb the rest of the year but now you're like seeing some of the fruits of this labor yes like now it's like hey they're putting these games together these guys that they've been working on with the whole year these backups and practice squad guys that they're calling up next man up but as opposed to being some scrub franchise that goes i don't want to coach this guy you can tell that they take the time with these guys it's not by accident

none of this is by accident you don't luck into this and the fact that we've seen some of these Some examples throughout the year. And now it's like, wow, now it's a dozen examples. It's not two plays. It's 20 plays that they're putting together. Yeah, good on them. It's awesome. And then Marty Oroiray, I think that's how you pronounce his last name.

The picky guy was insane. I mean, that's a late throw from Kyler. And he had a couple really nice plays in that game today. And I was excited about this coaching staff coming into the year. Aaron Glenn, I thought deserved a chance. I had a really nice conversation with him before the season started. Aubrey Pleasant, who's their defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator, was another guy,

and it's just fun to see coaches you're excited about getting opportunities show that they can really do something with those opportunities. I haven't really dug into the schematics of the Lions defense. I want to.

It's something that I want to dig into this off season. Like, I'm going to spend time watching this. What do they do? What were some of these ideas? They're not good, but they are getting by

with zero talent. And I'm not trying to say that in a mean way. There's zero high level NFL talent on this team. You don't even know who the guy's names are. You can't,

if you're an average fan you could not name a player on the lion's defense and that's okay but it's and that's why seeing these this group of guys and the way that it's built play this way is really fun before we move on here are you worried about the cardinals i'm bet they are who they we thought they were i think i'm back the irony there ha i don't even think about that i just leave denny green i just totally black out on that but it's that's kind of what they are it's we we we I started eating some crow on it a little bit. And I was like, okay, maybe they are putting it together and stuff.

But this is what, this is what they are. They're as far as Kyle were takes them on offense because they just don't have that safety net of soundness, I think is a good way to put it. Wow, that was nice. A little A literature there. But it's, it's, yeah, that's just kind of not what they don't have. They don't really have that kind of like what they lean on. What they lean on is Kyleor, go do something. Like, and please make a play for us.

And when you don't win those jump balls, those DeAndreierre Hopkins plays, is Adrian Green's getting focused on. They muck up the middle a little bit. And it just looked like when this is the Lions defense was on their shit. Like they knew everything that was about to come. Sometimes they didn't execute. Like the best place for the Cardinals stay were screens. Because it was because the one of why it was because the Lions were so on top of all these actions they were doing.

They were pushing so hard. And that's why the screens look so good. And it was like, okay, the Cardinals got to them. But this is, this is a, they always felt like a disjointed unit. And I don't want to like bomb them too much. but they're back to what I originally thought. They're more of an exciting wild cardish team than a true, true contender team. And I don't want to sound like, oh, now I'm all pumped up about this because, you know, I'm a Cardinals hater.

It's just that this is kind of what the cracks that they've always shown. It's like, okay, oh, that's right. These are the blemishes that they've had. So it's kind of like just back back to my original thinking with them. Yeah. And I mean, you look at a couple of those pressures. And I do think that their offensive line is still a concern. When you look at some of the guys they have up there, just talent-wise, that one Harris side, another Harris sack that we were talking about, they just didn't, they were not in the right spots. And they miss Rodney Hudson today. I think it just protection-wise, him being out was a huge deal for them.

Hopefully, that's why they full-slit it. That's why they had to full-slide it because they're like, we're not in here to get this out. Like, Rodney's not in here to get this going. It's like, hey, we're going to full-slide it. But that's exactly right. When Rodney Hudson's not in there, it's like, hold on your hats. And he will be back. DeAndre Hopkins will not be. So, I mean, that's a consideration as you think about this team moving forward. And I do think that we're starting to see a little bit of a gap between them and a team like Green Bay and potentially like Tampa, the tonight aside. Pending health. Why don't you explain this to me like I am an eight-year-old? All right. Every week we typically try to dig into one thing that needs a little bit more explanation.

This week, I want the AFC playoff picture to explain itself because I do need an explanation. Let's run through some of these games and then let's talk about what this looks like in the big picture, okay? Let's start with the Ravens and the Packers. Nationally televised game and, you know, most of the country got it. That was the game that everyone was tuned into this afternoon. An exciting game. Their Packers ultimately win. Baltimore falls to 8 and 6.

My thought watching the Ravens today was, man, I would love if John Harbaugh was the coach of my team. This team just does not have it. Tyler Huntley was fun today. He did a lot of good things. I can't believe he was not invited to the combine. Like that guy has legitimate talent. But this team is not going to be able to hold on. I mean, now they're tied for the AFC North lead at eight and six after losing the last two weeks.

And even if it's encouraging how well they, how hard they play. And again, you just feel like this is a very well led group. They just don't have the guys right now. Yeah, they don't have the horses. And the fact that the offensive defense actually looks exactly the same as far as scheme-wise. They just, they like don't change what they do, which is credit to them. But the fact that they competed, it's like, good for them. Exactly.

Like this two weeks in a row, they've done this. Like last week, they could have just as soon as Lamar went down, just going, oh, F this. We're done for this year. Like, but they came back almost. I mean, they were in the game at the end. I would say they almost won, but they were driving. And then this week, it was like, hey, they almost, they went tip for tat.

They were down to a two point conversion for the win at the end of the game. It's like, good for them. I mean, like you said, it's you on Harbaugh coach. your team if you have a what you think a bad coach it's like that's there's not many you take ahead of him because he gets these guys on the right page you can see how he just communicates like when they even before the two point play they banged the time out and I actually thought I was like oh they're going to kick the extra point that was like oh they're just trying to draw them off sides but you can see him communicating with his offensive coaches and then talking to how it was just like that's that's

that's a franchise thing that's an organizational thing and that's that's what the ravens are it's next man up, but then that was the next guys. We talked about the lines like, hey, they're coaching all these practice guys to play well. Ravens are doing the same thing. They just, you know, somehow have won some of these games, like, which is ridiculous. They could have folded up shop a long time. Easily this year, a long time ago. And instead, they push the Packers to the brink.

I have zero problem with going for two at the end. None. Like, you have the best player in football right now, arguably, playing extremely well. Rogers was ridiculous today. You want to extend that game? You want to play against him more when you've got practice squad corners out there and your backup quarterback. You have a chance to win right there. And it has nothing to do with math.

The math tells you to kick the extra point in that situation because they have 42 seconds left and a timeout. So I'm totally fine with trying to take the lead there. Yes. I'm totally fine with trying to take the lead there. I don't want to dig into it too much. The discourse over the last week has been completely. It's been tough. it's been really rough.

It's like if one ball doesn't get dropped, if one ball doesn't get tipped, we're not even talking about this. I know. And it just like I totally, you absolutely should take each situation individually. Like that is, that's really what good coaching is.

But I also think that I don't have any reason to be up in arms about any of this stuff. Like do I, if the Chargers had kicked the field goal on fourth and five on the first drive, they think, you know,

we need points. like we can't we're first first drive it's fourth and five like that's a long way to go i feel like we need to see some points on the board after our first drive guys will feel good about it let's keep going if at the end of the half you think you know we're not going to be able to pin them back like let's just take the three let's go to the half on a good note we've already missed a couple of these like let's cash this in that would be fine too but i'm also fine with what the decision that they ultimately made so it's just i have no issue with it whatsoever none And we got to stop treating, like we always want to say, oh, football is a chess match and all that.

Football is poker. Football is putting yourself in the best possible situations. And sometimes shit happens. Sometimes just stuff happens and you can't control it. And that's all that, like, you have to rely on. Like, it's just like you're put, you can go in poker and play, you know, hold them and like have aces against some shitty hand. And it's just like, sometimes you get out drew. Sometimes the guy drops a ball.

Sometimes the guy misses a block. there's 22 players playing at the same time and we're not even including refs getting in the way. Like that it's a lot of bad things can happen. So you're just putting yourself in positions to succeed. And you just got to sometimes go, hey, I had my chips in when the cards were right. And I lost the pot. And that's just what happens. And taking into situations, I always be the aggressor.

Like, I mean, that's just, I think that's just the sports. That's the funniest part about this to me is that we got to this place where. where people think that analytic, this idea that spreadsheets are ruining football and that math is ruining football, you want more punts and field goals? You think this is less exciting? I think this is a great version of the sport

where people continue to push it and teams play not to lose. Think about what the Chargers did at the end of that Browns game. Think about them going for it in those four downs, and winning them that game. You don't want more of that mind. mindset, you should absolutely take it individually in every single case. What do we need right here? But I think that

even the reaction from players, the reaction from everyone. Again, I am not one of those people. Like, you have to go for it every single time. Like there is no doubt you should go for it. You have to go for it every single time. I don't feel that way at all. If they kicked a couple of those field goals, I wouldn't be roasting them for making those decisions. But I also think I, but I also completely understand the other side of it where you think this is our mindset. This is what we're going to do. Yeah. Don't you want your players to win you a game? Like, isn't that I don't want my kicker to win me the game. I want my player or all the other guys to win the game.

Like that's, you're just enabling them. And like you said, it's, don't we want this? And taking in situations into account, that's exactly it. And that's what the coaches have to do. And good coaches will do that. Like, they will. Trust me, they will figure it out. They'll figure out, man, our offense just doesn't have it today.

They're on our shit. We haven't adjusted yet. Da, da, da, da, da. So maybe we shouldn't do it. Hey, defense hasn't figured out what the hell we're doing. Full throttle. We just had a couple unlucky. drops. It's not like they've been covering us. Like that's that's the stuff you take into account.

And yeah, I don't know. I at the discourse has been exhausting because as someone that tries to, I know I come from the football exos, film world, but as someone that like looks at this number stuff, it's so funny in the football world. I was called the nerd guy and also like that the numbers guy and I get into Twitter world and also I'm I'm film Twitter or like whatever. But it's like it's trying to bridge that. That's exactly what it is. You take those numbers into account. You take your coaching and your situation into account and then you come up with your decision. And neither of a decision is going to be the same.

But I always think the aggressive decision is the one that you lean towards. I tend to agree with that. But I also just, I don't care that much. I'm not living and dying with everything. One of these things. I don't feel like you need to be buried for any decision. It's an ultimatum. Whatever you make in these scenarios, I think it's close enough.

Like I can understand it both ways. What's your reason? And if the reason is good, then I'm fine with whatever you ended up doing. And that's kind of how I feel. about it. It's like the idea that he threw the game away on Thursday by going for it on fourth down is just insane to me. Anyway, we don't have to spend any more time on this. And if you want to really criticize one of the, if it's decisions, they probably should have gone for two when they were down by eight because that mathematically is the correct choice. Whatever the

reason for not doing it, whatever, but it's just the whole thing has been pretty exhausting. All right. Let's stick in the AFC set in the AFC right now and the AFC North as well. because the way that the Ravens feel in this moment where it's like, ah, you know, they're playing hard. I commend them, but it just doesn't feel like they have it. The Titans feel the exact same way. Like the Titans' offense just, they just don't have enough juice with the guys that are out there right now.

The Steelers' offense was unwatchable today, like truly unwatchable, and the Titans still managed to lose that game. Have you ever read the book The Long Walk? It was a Stephen King book. He wrote it under his like, alternate name like Richard Bachman, but it's a dystopian book. It's 100 teenage boys. They have to walk without rest. And then last man standing, you know, wins the prize. You know, Stephen King just going out there with it. But that's what the AFC feels like right now. It's just a long walk. Everybody trying to stay above four miles an hour,

otherwise they get shot. Because that's what it's just is. It's just like, you watch that those Steelers, Titans game. It's like, oh my God, the Steelers like in Titans, these are two potential playoff teams. Titans probably almost like for sure getting in. And the Steelers, you know, are still feisty. And it's, I mean, you watch them. You're like, no freaking way. Like no way these are playoff teams. But that's where we're at right now.

It's just the long walk. Who's going to get there and who's going to last man standing? Because it's just, yeah, like the Titans is what it is. They need Henry back. Julio pop to Sammy. And it's just like, oh, God. It's just like, what do they lean on? And then the Steelers, it's like, okay, how far can their defense and special teams take us?

because we know Big Ben's going to go write poetry in the steps or something like that, like whatever he was doing today, writing poetry in the stairwell. Because I don't know. I don't know. That was that game should have been more like on paper. It's like, oh, that's going to be a fun one. Then you were like, oh, no, no, it's not. It was so ugly.

And again, we talk about it. Better not this worker today, negative 14.9 completion percentage over expectation. Like, they could not move the ball. They could not run the ball. The only reason the Steelers won that game today is because their defense made play after play after play. TJ Wilde was like, we're not losing today.

Joe Hayden was like, we're not losing today. That's how this is going to go. And they just created a bunch of turnovers and they're still in it. And the Titans are also obviously still winning their division, but it's just hard to feel good about the Titans.

And then the Ravens are now losing the AFC North. They are no longer on top of the AFC North because the Bengals beat the Broncos in another extremely ugly game. The Bengals defense played great today. But for the most part, the Bengals offense was one league played Tyler Boyd and one big completion at the end of the

half when they kicked a 50-yard field goal. Those are the biggest plays that the Bengals had on offense today. And I was shocked when I looked back to the stats and I saw Burrough and he got sack three times. It felt like he got sack 20 times because he was just under so much to rest. And that's what it felt like. It's like kind of scary that their offense is going like, hey, Joe, break about three tackles and hopefully hit T. Higgins come across or Jamar Chase. coming across.

We love your chemistry of Jamar. So can you find him on a broken play? Because we're not dialing it up for you. That's scary. And I mean, honestly, I mean, yes, the defense does play well. I mean, that's something we've taken away from this Bengals team is how, you know, we talk about well-coached units. They're well-coached.

They're well-coached. They play smart. But really, they were getting driven on by by Drew Locke. And it took a Drewlock shit in his pants for, for them to like come out without any points. I mean, come on. Someone tweeted to me and said, like, he got the ball. Like, it was like a steel. in basketball, and that's what it felt like.

It was like somebody stole his lunch. That's what it felt like. He got it taken out of his hands. There were a couple great plays by the Bengals defense in this game, though. The PbU that Eli Apple had on the deep toss of Goulin Sutton, like just up through the hands, that's gorgeous. And then the player where Dreh Hendrickson made a play in space on Giovante Williams and coverage on third down, like those are the types of plays this team makes.

Like, they are just a very sound defense. I don't know what that means in the grand scheme. They've been so much better than I thought they would be. They're smart. They're always in the right spots. That's the type of defense that they are. I still have concerns about what the offense looks like playing and play out. There's a reason they're in the bottom third of the league in a lot of efficiency metrics

because even if you think the bro is great and he is, right? I think he's playing really, really good football. I feel like their concerns they have up front and just the inconsistency they have and just finding a groove, play calling wise, and just where they want to be in rhythm offensively has been an issue for them. You get a little more scared when you start looking at the potential teams they play in the playoffs. Like, do you think they're holding up against DeForest Buckner? Like, do you think they're holding up against the Patriots line?

Like, those teams are going to take it to them up front. And like you say, it's like it's, bro is playing really well. I mean, he, I love just how aggressive he is. He's trying to go through the throat. He's really good, man. He's really good. He really is, man. It's fun to watch him.

Like he's a fun player to watch. And it's like him always like that's what I love about him. It's that he's going for those home run balls when singles and doubles are there. And it's like he knows what he is. But he's like, I'm maximizing this shit. Like I am pushing that. Like I am, I might not be able to throw 80 yards, but I don't care. I'm getting this ball out on time.

I'm throwing that go ball. I'm throwing that sluggo. Perfect. Dropping it in there. I'm hit the deep dig. I'm not just checking it down because the checkdowns open. He's pushing the ball and maximizes that. the problem is, I mean, what's the problem, what we thought when they came into the year is that how long could they hold up up front?

I mean, honestly, that's how long, how much, how far they can go is how well they can block. Really, that's how I feel about the team. So if you look at it right now, the Titans are nine and five in first place in the AFC South. They swept the Colts. So they have a de facto two game lead over the Colts. The Titans play the Niners on Thursday night next week. Okay. Then they play the Dolphins who are feisty team.

And then they feisty. They play the Texans in week 18. So you hope if you're the Titans, you go two and one there. But there's a world where they lose to the dolphins. If they do and the Colts somehow beat two of the Cardinals, Raiders, and Jags, which is totally reasonable. The Colts go two and one and the Titans go one and two. I think the Colts would still lose the division because that would only pick up one game, right? So they would need the, I think they would need the Titans to lose out or they would need the Titans to go two and one.

one and one and two and they would need to win out. So I think it's still going to be tough for them to get there. But the Colts are currently the five seed at eight and six. There are right now. The Bengals are eight and six. The Colts are eight and six. The chargers are eight and six. The Bills are eight and six.

And if the Browns beat the Raiders tomorrow, they'll be eight and six. God. And it's like such a differing feelings about all those eight and sixes. And it's going to come down to what happens over the next three weeks, right? So let's just go through this. The Bengals have the Ravens, the Chiefs,

the Browns. Not easy. Oof, yeah. Not easy at all. The Ravens have the Bengals, the Rams, and the Steelers. Okay.

So, I mean, that could go either way. That game against the Bengals just becomes huge. Yeah, it's everything. It becomes a huge game, all right? The Colts have the Cardinals,

the Raiders, and the Jags. It seems like they're probably going to go two and one in that stretch if they do what they should, which means they're in a good spot to get one of these. Yeah. The Chargers have the Texans,

the Broncos, and the Raiders. So the Chargers could theoretically win out. So the two teams outside of the AFC North that are sitting at 8 and 6 right now, I would say, are set up the best to get those wild card spots, which means the AFC North title suddenly becomes the crucial thing to grab among those AFC North teams. And the Browns have the Packers, the Steelers, and the Bengals. So it's possible that that Browns-Bangles game in Week 18 becomes the game for the division. I know which game I'll be avoiding on our pick segment. those AMC North games and just throw everything out

because those games are just whatever. I mean, just whatever in a good way because it's just honestly, it's just one, like three big plays, it seems like. It's just three huge plays

that decide those games, which is fun. I mean, that's what you want football to be. You want them to come down to, when we talk about going forward on fourth down and stuff like that. That's what you want.

You want those tense moments as a fan, as a neutral fan, maybe not as a Bengals and Browns or Ravens fan or anything like that. But as a neutral fan, that's really fun and exciting. but it's a bloodbath. What do you think is the most entertaining version of the AFC playoff standings?

Definitely want the Chargers of Colts in there. I think so too. Yeah. Well, obviously we want Justin Herbert. You want to see him in the playoffs because that would be, I mean, that's the thing with the, you look at the Chargers team and it's like, okay, they have played really well since they're by. And it's something that maybe I got to take another glance at, especially on their defense. as they've honed in what they are,

especially on offense as well, but they have a supernova and quarterback. And that's what you want to see in the playoffs. You want to see that guy because he is truly special. I mean, the stuff he's doing on Thursday. It was so cool seeing those two go for tit for tat. Oh,

it was such a fun game. And that's a type of game I want to see in the playoffs. I tend to agree. Would you rather see Buffalo than a second AFC North team? Yes. I think so too. Yes. I want Josh Allen in the playoffs.

Yeah. Yeah. And I think the bills are wacky. team, but it's, you know, they deserve to be a playoff team. Like, they're not like where it's like, oh my God, they've been lucky. It's just more like, yeah, they had a soft schedule at the beginning of the year, but they're still a good team, um, even if like, if they have some inconsistencies on offense, but they, they still are a good team, I think. All right. Each week, uh, each week recently, I guess, I've thrown out, we've spent this

segment that I throw out a take and you kind of tell me if I should walk it back a little bit. And my thought today is that Aaron Rogers is the best player in football. Independent of position, I don't know if he's the MVP, but right now at this moment, Aaron Rogers is the best player in the NFL. Watching what he did today in the game that he played today, I just feel like it's pretty self-evident right now. Yeah, if we're not doing, you know, four-year QB draft or anything of that. There's nothing to do with that. It's not like, who would you want?

It's not like, my home's obviously. and like what he's done, the body of work and how young he is right now. And I think over the last couple of years, even if Rogers was the MVP, right, last year, which he was, I would still probably have said, Mahomes is a better quarterback. Like, Mahomes is a better player right now than Aaron Rogers. In this exact moment, I think Aaron Rogers is the best player in football. He is playing the best of anybody in the league. Yeah, I agree.

I'll just say short right there, but longer is just watching him, especially at the Bears game. especially, just watching him utilize guys like Mercedes Lewis, Alan Lazard, MvS, you know, St. Brown, all these guys and different guys are making plays because he puts the ball in the perfect spot at the perfect time. It's not just the Devante Adams and Aaron Rogers show. It can be that at times, but then also you don't hear from Devante Adams for a quarter because he's just nickel and diming you left and right. And then also there's a, you know, plays like that two-minute throw where he's thrown a bender against pressure with a safety sitting over the top. Usually when you see those throws, that's, this is why, I mean, the replay everyone, everyone

could watch and just go, that's ridiculous throw. Why that's even more ridiculous than initially you think, usually see those benders against two man. And it's inside trail technique. Two man, the safeties are up and outside. So you have all that room to work over the middle to knife that throw. And I'm making it sound easy against two men. It's a hero throw.

That's why I call them. their hero throws, as tiered throws. He did against a simulated pressure. They dropped the inside guy. And so same thing, inside trail technique, but the safety is squeezing it over the top. So his room to work was literally that one by one area that he threw it in. And he freaking threw it before MV, I think it was NBS, was even like near the defender. Like he was two yards short of them.

And then he threw him open. That stuff is rare. I mean, that's a lifetime throw. And he does it so casually. He had five of them today. I mean, the ball placement is out of this world right now. Yeah. The where he is putting the ball, me, my personal, my personal feeling is that those seen balls he

throws are the prettiest balls he throws. Like those are the prettiest Aaron Rogers throws. And he had like four or five of them today. The one to Tyler Davis on the play action in the second quarter, it's like, holy shit. Like, I mean, there, and those were everywhere today. The MVS touchdown is a beautiful throw breaking over the middle. The Lazard third and four completion on the second drive where he puts it outside and just in his hands. The whole shot down the right sideline that he just casually drops low and away from the safety coming over.

And it's a huge explosive play. What he is doing with the football right now should not be possible. Yeah. And it's not the old bounce around stuff. Everything's on time. And everything is like, we talk about zero fat. That's exactly what it is. They kind of got a garbage penalty where Luzard dropped the ball.

That was a freaking hard-ass throw he made right there. It was an outbreaker, and he puts him right on the money, and Lizarg dropped it because I think he was just like, I can't believe this got to me. He was like, oh, my God. It just stunned him because it was such a good throw. And that's how he's playing. He must one in the end zone. That's like really the only blemish I can think.

Because like even on the quick game stop, he gets a ball out so fast that even if you're guarding it, it's, he makes it a five-yard gain. He's getting all that it's designed to do. Third and three, they run stick. And that is, he's getting five with it. It's not a tackle at the sticks that he throws low because he's laid on it. You can't, the Ravens try to run man today or brought pressures and did all that stuff. If you're going to run man on him, he knows exactly where to lead guys.

It's, it's suicide. You have to run a soft coverage and rush four. And about four teams could do that for 60 minutes. Even when you do that, his ability to control the game from the, with the quick game stuff is unlike pretty much every other quarter. in the league. I mean, he's willing to check it to runs, like, too. And that's just speaks to him being a quarterback, not a thrower.

He understands like, hey, you're giving me a soft box. All right. I'll just hand it to a 28 or Aaron Jones. Like, good luck stopping that for, for 60 minutes of a game. We looked up and after week 15, he leads the league in EPA per play among quarterbacks. He just not only is, are the throws spectacular and he's got the wow moments. He is the most efficient, productive quarterback in football right now. Like, here we are again.

Like, as much as we want to look at the shifting landscape of quarterbacks and isn't Kyle Murray exciting and look at Justin Herbert and it's, we're here. Aaron Rogers is still the best football player in the world. I know. He's the dragon. And it's hard to kill a dragon. You're telling me. It is.

You are telling me. Oh, my God. I know. Thank God. I'm not an FC North fan anymore. All right. Last thing here. We're going to give out the belt this week.

The correct response. is Little Rock, Arkansas. Let's see what Mike lost. 13,800. We have three players finishing with no money. And what that means, ladies and gentlemen, is that tomorrow we will have no returning champion. So, sorry, folks.

No idea where it kind of found that. If you can pick up on the clues, the winner of the belt this week is no one. No one deserves the belt this week. I want every team in the NFL after this Sunday to go think about what it did and come back and be better next week. I want to take the holiday week, take some time, see your family, really sit back and wonder, you know, what do I want out of this? Who do I want to be? Because we're disappointed right now in the product that the league put on the field this week.

If I wanted to watch preseason football, I would go back to some August week two. You know, weeks of pre-season, that's what it felt like this weekend. It was, I mean, Thursday night was fun. But not. Thursday night was great. And the game last night was fine. But what we saw today. It was bad.

You know, I'm not upset. I'm just, no. I expect so much of you guys that I just want to see more. I want to see you do better, not just for me, but for you as well. So I want you to take some time, really sit back. And let's just be better next week. That's it. Yeah.

We're going to have a battle royale. That's what we're going to do. We're going to just draw 32 teams. Usually it's 30 for the Royal Rumble. It's called the AFC playoffs. That's what it is, right? And we're going to have all players and coaches enter, you know. Dan Campbell, bite some decaps.

We'll just have one after another. Just throw each other over the top rope and we'll see who's left standing. I think that's what we do next week. All right. That's all we got this week, guys. It was an ugly week, but it was still a fun weekend of football. Always. Please submit your questions for the mailbag this week by

12 p.m. Eastern tomorrow. We're going to get going a little bit earlier with Mike Sando because of the game that is now tomorrow afternoon. So please send in your questions for me and Sando. You can email those. You can also leave us a voicemail. The voicemail number is 872-2-7-3. One more time, 872-22-22-7073.

Please shoot those our way. You can also email us at Athletic Football Show at gmail.com. Mitch will be back on Wednesday this week. It's exciting to talk to him again. Until then, until we get to the shows later in the week. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.