The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 17 recap — Packers crush Vikings, Bucs clinch NFC South, playoff picture, and more

Episode Date: January 2, 2023

There are 17 regular season games remaining in the 2022 NFL season, and the playoff picture is finally starting to come into focus. The Buccaneers and Giants both clinched playoff spots on Sunday, while the Packers are one win away from turning a 4-8 start into a playoff berth. The final Wild Card spot in both conferences remains up for grabs, as does the top seed on either side of the bracket. Robert Mays and Nate Tice break it all down through the lens of Week 17 on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeToday's show is brought to you by...Roman: Get 20% off your first order at ro.co/ATHLETICAllbirds: Discover your perfect pair of Wool Runners at Allbirds.com today1:16 Steelers-Ravens4:23 Packers-Vikings21:01 NFC playoff picture25:36 Buccaneers, Mike Evans go off vs. Panthers39:36 Hats off to the Giants53:11 CMC, Nick Bosa star in 49ers' win over Raiders59:16 Worried about the Eagles?63:41 Jets flame out in fifth-straight loss71:47 AFC playoff picture77:09 Washington eliminated from playoff contention Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Join to me tonight. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? Doing very well. Week 17, not the end of the season.

Still getting used to that. So you're doing it to hear two of that. Week 17 is not the end of the season. We still have week 18. Doing excellent, though. That was another fun day of Sunday action. So I'm geared up. I'm ready to go.

Are you hopped up on caffeine as well? Because I know you ain't got your coffee right before this, just like I did. I was out until like 2.30 in the morning last night. I'm not built for that life anymore. The ironies of life. I live in Vegas and did not go out. Watch the clue.

You have like a two-month-old baby. I think that is the responsible choice. I'm just a 35-year-old man who's amazingly washed. We had a great night. I just couldn't even imagine a different part of my life going through that same night and living and surviving today. So feeling great, though. It was a fun day. A lot of stuff to chew on.

let's start with the game that we just watched. I'm not going to dig into this a ton. I think it's just worth mentioning that we just watched a crazy game. That Kenny Pickett made two throws at the end, one of which was a missile to Stephen Sims over the middle of the field, and then a crazy play to Najee Harris. And that is enough, my friend, to keep the Steelers alive in the AFC playoff somehow

after they were two and six at one point earlier this season. They say football games usually come down to like three or four plays, and I guess that's all it is for a Steve. Steelers game. That's it. AFC North Battle just to race the race to double digits apparently. But that's it. That was it. I'm waiting for Pickett to throw a one ball on time. But when you can create like that, it does work. There is success to it. I like him more than you do. I know. I want to see him in a real offense. That's it. I think he's shown plenty considering the circumstances for me to have some optimism about him moving forward. That's that's why I've not had like a true concrete take on him as a pro. I just

as a prospect, yes, but as a pro, because in that offense, it's not fair to evaluate any quarterback. So that's, that's why I've never been, like, on either side going like, oh, he's going to be awesome or he's going to suck or he's going to be in the middle because it's just like, I want to see him in a real conducive offense and then I actually see how he operates from that. So yeah. The Steelers now. Oh, my God.

This is potentially real. Okay. We willed into existence because we all started talking about it and then it just happened. We had So lack on a couple weeks ago. his dad is a Steelers fan and he was joking about how his dad kept looking at the playoff odds every day. It was like, oh, 5%. There's a 5% chance. Here's what needs to happen for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs. And we're going to dig into all the playoff scenarios at some point later in the show. But just coming

off of that game. If the Steelers beat the Browns, which, okay, the Browns aren't very good. Steelers are fine. The Steelers beat the Browns. This version of the Dolphins, which who knows who's going to be playing quarterback for the Dolphins, Skyward Thompson hour again, loses to the jets and the Patriots lose to the bills, which the bills will have something to play for in week 18, the Pittsburgh Steelers at 9 and 8 will make the playoffs. That's not a crazy set of circumstances. It's not an insane scenario to imagine.

Mike Tomlin is a legend. He is a legend to get this team competitive. This team was dead to me by Halloween. They were 2 and 6. They should have been dead to you. Yeah. And now we're talking. They have the same playoff at odds.

If it's just looking at 538, sorry, Austin Mock. But just look at 538, they're just looking at 538. have the same playoff odds as the Lions right now. And how we talk about the Lions and how we talk about the Steelers, it's just what this is, this is ridiculous. I mean, honestly, Mike Tomlin deserves so much credit just to have this team competitive with injuries to their stars. T.J. Watt being hurt, Mika Fitzpatrick had an epic. We got got his appendix taken out. Like just all these things, but they.

A lot of guys get their appendix is taken out this year, by the way. At least two. Oh, David Boktiari, Mika Fitzpatrick. I mean, like huge high-name players have gotten their appendix taken out. Three pro bowl. just like that. Yeah, that's good. That's really interesting, actually.

All right. Speaking of teams that should not be in the playoff hunt, but absolutely are. Let's talk about the game we were going to start with. And that is the Packers absolutely crushing the Minnesota Vikings. I've had so many of these moments in my life, okay? The two that come to mind that are starkest, or the 2010, 2012 season? What was the year where Rogers broke his collarbone and came back in week 18, and it was the Chris Conti play to random.

Kyle. Oh, no, 2012. Or maybe 2013. Yeah, 2012, 2012, 2013. No, I don't know. 2012 was Lovey's last season with the Bears. This is great podcast. Yeah, so, so it must have been 13.

So that's what Tolzean started, right? Oh, so it would have been 20, 2013. Does that make sense? Anyway, whatever it was. Rogers comes back in the last week of the season from a broken collarbone. I believe this is what happened. I just remember the play, him making Julius Pepper's miss in traffic, hitting or in making a miss in the pocket,

hitting Randall Cobb for a game-winning touchdown at the end and then making the playoffs in the final week of the season. So that is one I've dealt with. The 2016 season where it was the relaxed season where they had to go on that insane run down the stretch where they won one, two, three, four, five, six games in a row down the back half of the playoff or the regular season when they were five and six and they ended up making the playoffs.

And now we're doing this again. In one of these years where they were supposed to be dead in the water where it was supposed to be this. I can't believe what a train wreck the Packers are. They're right there on the doorstep of making the fucking playoffs. Again, I just can't do it anymore. And like it felt safe to say like, oh, yeah, they're not making a playoffs. What is this mean for the Packers organization?

How much time did we spend talking about Brady and Rogers being done? And, man, I can't believe Brady and Rogers fell off. And what is this? And it's not like they're playing great. But now it looks like both of them might make the playoffs. We had a loser leaves town segment between the Bucks and the Packers before they played each other. And then we hedged and said loser leaves contender town. So thank God we we hedged with that and just threw that little word in there just to help out.

But yeah, I can't believe this because it just felt safe. And sure enough, they figured things out on offense a little bit. The defense, I guess, steps up today. Also, their special teams is returning kicks. That was like one of the most, that was like one of those staples is like, Mahomes is going to win a two-minute drill and the Packers special teams is going to blow a game. And now they're returning kicks for touchdowns. It's it's astounding what they're doing right now. Obviously, the big splash plays, the kick return for a touchdown, even the pick six.

You can't rely on that every single game. But to a certain extent, this is the type of team. I thought the Packers would be if they were going to be good. I thought they would have one of the best defenses in the league, which that certainly hasn't happened, but their past defense has been excellent as of late and was excellent again today. I thought their past defense has been excellent. would be great based on the guys they had back there. I thought they would run the ball very well, and they did that today. Aaron Jones had 111 yards on 14 carries. AJ Dylan had another solid day.

They were efficient running the football, which they've been for most of the year, and Aaron Rogers wouldn't have to be a superhero. The line would be good, the defense would be good, and they would win games and be a little bit uglier, but they would still be a really good team. It took 17 weeks, and it took some fluky stuff happening. The Packers are a diet version of that team now. It's amazing.

That's exactly right. I was, we were really excited. I know I was too, but how I thought this Packers defense would look, where they're injecting with all this young talent. Look at those DBs. They got some dudes up front that can do some stuff. And no, this is, it's working for them. Like I, their run games really interesting because they do everything out of the shotgun.

And as opposed to other teams that run out of the shotgun, maybe not the bangles because they're their own thing too, is that, you know, Rogers isn't a part of that run game. Like, he's not really. beating guys on the back side and everything. And it was just spreading his rushing touchdown today? I am. I am. There was plenty on the move for an old man.

He had a run against the dolphins yesterday or last week when he was scrambling. And how many times have you seen Rogers? Like, how is he pulling away from guys and getting that first? Or like just holding him off. And last week against the dolphins, there's two guys closing on him. I'm like, ah, there's father time. Father time does get everybody because how many times I'm like, how is nobody closing on him? And he's getting the first.

He runs like a 4-8-5. And sure enough, okay, finally. I only took him until he's nearly 40s for that to work. But no, the run game is so sweet because they're running like, they'll run like the GT counter stuff for the garden tackle pole. And they don't read it. And they still successfully run it because they block it so well. And they'll just do stuff like that that it's really good. I like the run game a lot and have the whole year.

On offense, the running game specifically, one of the biggest questions we had about them coming into this week is, would guys be healthy? Would the offensive line be back healthy? What would Aaron Jones look like? What sort of workload would he get? And they were healthy enough to be effective. in that area of the game. So that was one of the big questions we had about this match specifically coming into it. The other big question that we had, what was the plan going to be for number 18 after the horror show that we saw in week one? And the plan was certainly different.

They did a fantastic job of limiting him. And they did it with a couple of specific tweaks that really had a huge impact. So what did you see from the way that they plan for Jefferson and what worked today? They really keyed in on his alignment. And we've talked. I talked before. It's talking about Devante Adams and Justin Jefferson, how defenses will cloud a side. They'll play cover two to the side that they're on. Well, a way to kind of mix it up and get guys open is put them in the slot, move them around, put them in motion and everything.

And the Packers, they looked like they had checks based on alignment. There's probably some more subtleties and different calls, but their basic calls. You don't know the whole game plan? I don't. I don't. As much as I act like I do. Based on one TV tape viewing? I'll talk five plays and act like I knew the whole game plan.

But just one little part, I kind of was noticing this, though, was when Jefferson was on the outside, they would check to cover two. Jaya Alexander was following him. They would go cover two. They were covered two to his side. Okay. Okay. So when the Vikings put Jefferson in the slot, that's when you're seeing some of the one double stuff. They're truly running with man coverage.

We're doubling him. And then if they put the, what the Vikings counter or a change up that they've done throughout this year is let's have Jefferson start in the back field, like a running back, and then motion out. And that way we can hide them, maybe get them on a lineback or maybe. get the corner if they want to be in man coverage. The Packers had a check for that too, and they would just check to cover three. Sorry, that was their check. Sorry, I was clapping. People watching this on YouTube can see me doing it.

But I thought that was super interesting because I've seen other teams do that. The Lions have done this the same way. But the Packers really, they were a little better players on the defensive backfield than the Lions do. That really helps out with this. And the second half, the first drive for the Vikings was fascinating. And I wish Kirk Cousins is in shit his pants for the strip sack at the end of the drive. because what the Vikings were doing was really cool.

Like they were, they started motioning Jefferson as the jet sweep guy to kind of like hide him and kind of hide his, everybody else's splits. And that's why you kind of saw some kind of false starts and stuff from the Vikings too because you can tell they're doing this on the fly. This was a halftime adjustment. They started him in the slot and then motioned him to like the Z to the outside

towards the tight end. And you can see the Packers trying to sort it out. And the Packers check was, okay, screw this. Let's just go quarters. And that's why you saw finally the first catch to Jefferson. on that dig when Jair Alexander was playing off because they checked the quarters. I could, screw this, we'll just do that.

And then the game guy, kind of went out of hand. So he kind of didn't get to see more of it. But I thought that was super interesting. It was about to be. The other thing that I thought was interesting, the Packers did. They're running big nickel a lot with three safeties.

And they have done this before after Eric Stokes got hurt and weeks to get 10 and 11 against the Cowboys and Titans. Then they got away from it. They'd be using K. Sean Nixon as the nickel. this week though they went three safeties with Rudy Ford Adrian Amos and Savage Darnel Savage and Savage was the nickel player

and why Savage is a great athlete so they had him just manning up on receivers he was man on KJ Osborne he was manned on that last interception that Kirk Cousin alerted the post on and threw the interception the game was out of hand but you know who the man defender on Justin Jefferson was it was Darnel Savage like so that was

I thought that was a really interesting kind of tweak to get these different body types on the field for the defense And that's why they could run the one double stuff was because Savage can man up with Osborne while they put another corner in a safety on Justin Jefferson. And then have another corner on Adam Thielen and then have another safety type or good body type of Quay Walker even on T.J. Hawkinson. So I thought that was just super interesting how they are kind of tweaking this defense in week 17 and something I want to keep an eye on as a weeks go ahead because it really, really worked for them. They were super successful out of those looks today. It was nice to see them intentionally and consciously tweak what they were doing. And you could see it from the first drive.

So the first drive, like you said, they come out third down. Jefferson's in the slot. Jay Alexander is lined up over him in man coverage in the slot. As soon as I saw that, I was like, okay, like we're getting going now. Like this is something you wouldn't have seen in week one. And this is good thing we're learning here. And on that play specifically, I think this is what teams have tried to do to the Vikings. Packers will play in man coverage.

Okay. They're doubling Jefferson. You can see. There's one double. It's exactly what they did. So the safety's over the top. They're doubling and bracketing him. T.J.

Hawkinson is lined up as the number one receiver to the outside. So he kind of runs off the safety that was covering him or linebacker. I can't remember in man coverage. They have feeling one-on-one against Russell Douglas. He runs a little whip and Douglas just locks it down. That's what teams were doing to the Vikings in a pre-Hockinson world, saying we're going to play man-coverage, we're going to double Jefferson. We're going to make somebody else beat us.

On that specific play, Hawkinson, who's been their man coverage winner that's not Jefferson, is running off on that play. So pass breakup, punt, great start. And then the other play where I think Douglas came up big, and I think that that tweak you're talking about, I want to touch on in a second. There was a fourth and three at one point.

I think it was like 531 left in the first quarter. And they motioned Jefferson to the slot again, and they had Hawkinson as the number one to the outside. And it was zone coverage, and they were trying to high-low the linebacker, and they had Jefferson sit down, they're trying to get Hawkinson bending behind it. And Douglas, who's on him as the number one receiver, amazing play breaks it up.

And I think that's the tip ball of the savage that he takes back for the pick six. So that two plays in examples where Rasul Douglas comes up huge. That's two games in a row. I think getting him back to the outside through injury or tweak or whatever, however they've managed to do it or why, has been really important for getting their best past defense on the field over the last few weeks. We talk about best five for offense. It's the same thing for every position group. Best five DBs, best pass rushers, same thing. Get figured out.

And how they're doing it is putting Savage in the slot, which I think is inspired. That would have been my first answer if I was looking at this DB crew. I didn't know yet. He's a great athlete. He's very rangy. He's just, I think maybe he's better closer to the ball. Because if he has too much space to think about things, it might not work out as well. But hey, if you're at guard this guy, that works really well for him.

That first interception that you brought up or the fourth down, whatever the one was. the pick six on fourth down. That play was, this is why Kirk Cousins is very frustrating. So high, low, just like you talked about, that was a double move to Jefferson. He's sitting and then he's spinning out of it. Oh, interesting. So run like, yes. And this is why Kirk Cousins can be great on the board and frustrating in practice sometimes.

He reads that and that is the correct throw to throw the dig on what is, he's heated up a little bit. He's got a little pressure in his face. So he's saying, I hit the back of my drop. screw that. I'm not waiting for the double move to develop. I'll just throw it a dick, which is the right fine, I should say right answer, a fine answer. But they were going for a shot play to Jefferson because like I said before was Jefferson motions out of the backfield. They checked to cover three. You got Jefferson on Campbell there and they're running the little double move on to him. So he hitches up. You call it a spin route, a whip route, whatever you want to call it.

But he hitches up and then he twirls up to get vertical. And you'll see this double move sometimes. It's a good one. And but Cousins is like, screw that. I'm just going to get rid of this ball. I'm not taking another shot. That's where pressure, even the thought of pressure can heat up an offense and not let you get to where you want to get. And that's sure enough. They had a shot play to Jefferson on a fort down. They're kind of like they were throwing a haymaker there. And they just didn't get to it.

And cousins still found a fine answer. But then you're going with T.J. Hockinson against Rousseau Douglas. So you're taking a lesser answer, even if that quote unquote was the right answer. Speaking of the offensive line getting heated up, I think that was another huge impact on this game. Losing your second string center early in the day. impacted a rushing game that already wasn't playing very well. So they finished this game, I believe, with a 35% rushing success on runs to running backs

and bottom third of the league EPA per rush again. So this offense and this running game that has been really struggling, especially in the back half of the season, struggling again against a team that has not done very well against the run compared to the way they defend the past. I think that came up big in this game, and then they lost Brian O'Neill. So you lose two starting offensive linemen, and T.J. Slayton had some big moments against the third string center. And that's what you want to see.

But that was huge. He had the tip that led to the interception. And so all of these different compounding factors leading to a kind of nightmarish day for the Vikings and their offense. So where are we? Like, is this just another bad game? I mean, they've got two or three blowouts on their resume. Plus all the other stuff we've seen from them. It is a confounding team to say the least.

I mean, this is a nightmarish game. Kick, return, pick, six, all of that. But at a certain point, it's like, I. I don't know, man. Like, there's been a couple nightmarish games. God, I mean, it really, we talked about this. We kind of a backdoor to our way into this thought. It really does feel like the Bengals sometimes last year, where it's just this offense.

It's just, they're relying on explosive plays, but it just feels like stretches where you don't, there's no sustainability. There's no just efficiency in this offense. And that's why the run game is just so rough. And yeah, I feel exactly the same about the Vikings as I did. I feel better about the Packers, but I haven't lost anything with the Vikings because it's just kind of the same issues. never had to lose it.

Yeah, I know. There wasn't anything that kind of, and they already used up their big comeback card against the Colts a few weeks ago. So they, you know, if they did it two, two times this season, I would have, like, like, okay, this team just, they should have the horseshoe on their helmet. But it's like unbelievable. Like this, this team, it is believable. It's not unbelievable.

It's believable is that this team is just kind of there. They're just fine. And then right here is that none of the luck went their way. And actually, all the bounces went the wrong way against them this game. Also I want to talk real quick. Packers' offense had an interesting plan against his Vikings defense. Everything they did was man's own tails. Everything.

One by three formations, having Mercedes-Lews split out and motioning them back in, back and forth jet motions, because all they were doing was, if you're in quarters, we're running the ball. If you're staying too high, we're going to pound the rock on you. And it worked. But then on top of it, if they were in man coverage, Rogers threw deep. Like the first five times they played man coverage. He threw, I think his A dot was over 15 yards because he was just chucking it.

He chucked a deep. I think he went one for five on this first five. Every time it happens, I think of you saying performative deep ball now. Every single time I see him throw a deep ball, I think of you saying performative deep ball. It is. It's the first and only time I've ever heard the term and I deeply respect it. It is because that's what it is. It's like, oh, it's man, taking my shot.

I mean, how many times the Christian Watson, they were even joking about it on the telecast. They're like, yeah, you know, they're trying to make that one work. I'm like, because it didn't work the first time they played. I just think that's so funny. But I thought it was a very kind of simply, a simple. but effective game plan from the Packers. Hey, if you're going to be in quarters, we're just going to keep pounding the rock on you until you make a stop.

The stat that I really jumped out to me today, Aaron Schatz tweeted something staggering. In their wins this season. So even if you eliminate these nightmarish games that the Vikings have had, they're 18th in DVOA. And their wins. They are one of the strangest teams in recent memory. And then I do think that they can get hot and they can get streaky

and because they have Jefferson, they're a little bit dangerous. But I'm kind of with you. I don't think this game is really informative from a Vikings perspective, because I think we've seen this version of them before. I think this version of the Packers is slightly new. And so the way that their past defense is playing and kind of the upside they have on that side of the ball combined with, if they're offensive line as healthy, if the offensive skill position players are healthy, if they can run the ball, I think they can do enough to be dangerous.

So here we are. So if the Packers win this week, if they beat the Lions, They're in. That's as simple as it is. And this Detroit team is a good team. I think it's going to be a great game. I can't wait to watch it. I mean, that is a fantastic game,

but they are in with a week 18 win over the Lions. The Seahawks are in with a win over the Rams and a Lions win over the Packers in Week 18. Absolutely conceivable. I mean, that's not a far off consideration. The Lions are in with a win over the Packers and a Seahawks lost to the ramps. So they obviously have the lowest chances just because they need multiple things to happen. But Packers have the best chances of those three teams to make the postseason. Just even a few weeks ago we were joking about like, wow, they actually have a glimmer of hope.

Who knows? Like, ha, ha, ha, ha, and then here we are. Now they're going against this Lions team that's like, this is going to be a great matchup. This is the styles make fights all the way. Don't have to worry about the lines. I don't have, at least don't have to worry about quarterback design runs this week. I saw Justin Fields going for a century mark in the first quarter. I was like, man, the lions. Let's not talk about that game. What a disgusting football game. I'm ready for the season to be over.

I understand it's important. Your food is coming out and saying, you know, we, it's important for him to get this experience and we need all the reps we can get. I know you have to say that. This is not a positive experience for him, what they look like today. They were unable to throw the football. Remind me of what it looked like in the first half of the season. And he got hurt at some point during the game where he wasn't comfortable

run and they weren't comfortable running him. And when you lose that element of your offense, he's just a sit and duck back there. It's brutal. And I just, the idea of even one more of that against this Vikings team, I'm not excited about it. It's either he gets whacked within one second or he runs around for four seconds and gets closed lined. Because no one's up. Double team.

Yeah. It's just the doubt. The drop back passing game is a disaster. It's been a disaster the entire season because of the personnel that they have. But we don't have to spend much more time on that. The last thing about the kind of the playoff outlook in the N. The Niners now, without Vikings loss, if the Niners win out, they would be, I believe, the two-seed in the NFC. And even if the Vikings win, so if both of those teams finish 13 and 4, the Niners would be the two-seat in the NFC, do you know what that means?

It means if the Packers win, we get Niners Packers again in the playoffs. The Niners have to go to San Francisco. I don't love that matchup for the Packers. No. But it's still, I cannot believe we're there again after all of this. All these teams, it just feels like repeat matchups. Or like, you know, like even seen right there, Vikings potentially playing the Giants. Like, no, that, that's a, that's a what are you bowl if I've ever seen one right there.

Like that, yeah, that's some interesting. I was sorry, on the YouTube channel, you can see the playoff pictures right. now. But even the 49ers for Seahawks, okay, Vikings Giants and then Bucks Cowboys, that is like just matchups I did not predict even a couple of weeks ago, even knowing that some of these teams could actually make the playoffs. There are matchups in some capacity that you would have predicted in August. And the fact that we're here again is just absolutely insane. Nothing's changed. Nothing has changed. And on that note, we're going to get to nothing changing after we take our first quick break.

Gentlemen, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention. All right. Tom Brady and Mike Evans. You have my attention, I guess. I guess. Coming into this game, the box, excuse me, I'm confusing the Packers in the box. No, same thing. Two teams that I were here again somehow.

Comfort of the same cloth. Coming into this game, the Bucks had completed two passes of 30 plus air yards. Thank you for looking that up. Thank you for looking this up. Two on the season. Today, they had three that went for touchdowns to Mike Evans. Of course they did. Of course they did.

That is how inexplicable and strange this game felt even in the moment. I think there are reasons that this happened. You know, you look at the way the early part of the game went for Carolina's defense. Carolina decimated a corner. You know, they have to go sign Josh Norman off the street. They got Keith Taylor and C.J. Henderson is there only two guys? The Jeremy Chins in the slot, which had an impact on this game that we can talk about. And early on, a couple underneath completions to Mike Evans, come back on the left side,

dig on the right side. And I think over the course of the game, that has an impact to the point that C.J. Henderson and Taylor, both of whom got burned at different points in the game, aren't sure what to do out there. They don't want to give up another underneath completion. And so two times in this game, he just runs right by him for touchdowns. And when you have uncertainty a corner and you have a couple of those early completions, I think that is the end result ultimately. And Mike Evans and Tom Brady can still do this.

They haven't done it much this year, but they are still capable of doing this. Been waiting for it all year. And then finally in one game, it just explodes. All go routes. Like nothing like, nothing is, it's hilarious. It was like a high school offense where it's just like, hey, we have the D1 receiver. And you don't. It was.

The three touchdowns is 99 versus quarters, just took the, one-on-one versus Keith Taylor. Who's Keith Taylor? Yeah, that's exactly what Tom Brady and Mike Evans were doing, too. Oh, this guy. Go-Rout versus quarters, took the one-on-one again. So that's two of them. Then cover zero.

Bucks wotted up with seven-man protection. Evans runs right by a C.G. Henderson. Just simple. Just blocked it up and took three one-on-one go balls. It's just, football can be really easy sometimes. But this was the one thing that was interesting with the bucks, and this is where health definitely does help.

For, you know, having Worfson and Donvin Smith for the first time. huge. You could feel it. You could feel such a difference. Oh, yeah. And just even the receivers. So that's the first time where since Smith had been on field together since week 12. And then they've, first time all these receivers with Russell Gage truly healthy,

Julio Jones, whatever, Julio Jones feels like he has a new injury every week, but somewhat healthy. But that's a big difference between. Get an explosive run today. He made an impact on the game. They love the reverses to him. Gage had a huge third down conversion. I mean, they all showed up.

They all had their moments in this game. And they're, I mean, but going forward deep by receiver. and when you're number four receivers, freaking Julio Jones, that's pretty fun. But this is their best game out of 11 personnel the entire year.

They had seven explosive passes this entire day. I think all of them were out of 11 personnel. They average 0.4 EPA per dropback out of 11 personnel. Just frame of reference, Mahomes leaves the week at 0.3 or 0.29 right now.

So better than Mahomes when they were in three wide receivers. But easily their best game. And what also that helps is the trickle down. This is not just the gravity of one receiver and cloud coverage. this is having so much heat down the field that if you notice all the checkdowns had a little bit more breathing room today. Rashad White and the Kate Otten's and Lenny Furnett checkdowns because the intermediate defenders had actually pushed back and guard stuff down the field.

So they're, oh, Tom Brady actually hit his like patented checkdowns underneath. So that really helped. They had some kind of some nice changeups where coming off flat looks and all that. Todd Bowles was aggressive on fourth and two in the third quarter. And that stunned me that all of a sudden he's going for it on fourth down. So yeah, just this Bucks team I've been waiting to do, have some signs of life, had a little bit. They moved a couple fingers today. So, and obviously the improvements on offense are the reason they won this game, but they still needed a couple breaks.

They still needed a couple darnal interception down the field. And that's what we talked about coming into this game was the two elements of the Carolina winning. It was twofold that we said on Thursday. Can they win up front the way that they did last week? And can they avoid the huge mistakes that they have. avoided since Donald came back. The answer to the first question was no. They averaged negative 0.35 EPA per rush in this game, which was the second worst in the

week so far. The only team that was worse was the Texans. They averaged about one yard before contact per rush. Let me get the exact number. 1.27. They went 22 carries for 74 yards on the game. We did not mention this on Thursday. Mistaked by us.

Vidae had missed the last couple games for Tampa, and he was back. So I think that was, that made an impact on the running game. and they did not run the ball back consistently. And then you had a couple darn old turnovers. So that factor when they, when Carolina was on offense and the box made able to push the ball down field on defense, those are the two biggest influences on the game. Absolutely. I mean, turn on some sick throws. But yeah, that's the turnovers.

It was all about the downside with them at this point because there was no downside over the last month as they made this little run. Exactly. The running keeps the boat. It keeps it afloat. that's what running the ball is able to do. It just lets you stay on schedule. I know people want to make fun of that and say like, oh, you're only trying to stay on schedule. It's like, yeah, but because when everything else bottoms out or you do turn the ball over, it lets you just sustain. It just keeps you effective. Um, the other thing, other stat I came across and this is kind of a point of discussion is Brady and no huddle. The bucks have the fourth highest rate this year of no huddle snaps, which I actually didn't know is that high. Um, when Brady is huddling, when Tom Brady's huddling or the, um, the, five, are huddling, not just Tom Brady, but all 11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, offensive players are huddling. They're 20th in the NFL, his success rate, 43.8%. When they go no huddle, and they're the fourth highest rate, 54%, which is better than Mahomes. So it's loosened this offense up.

I found that stack, because I was trying to look it up in two minute, because that's when it felt different to me, but no huddle is a more accurate representation. They just, they just, then you sprinkle them throughout the game. I think it just makes it simpler for them and just make it, like, cleaner. I think they're trying to get these, like, very convoluted looks that and it's like for a six-yard game where Chris Godwin's getting clotheslined. It's like, just loosen it up and throw some stuff on the outside, throw some high lows over the middle and all that. But I think a lot of this discussion is about just like this offense just needs to loosen up. And I think having the speed at receiver helps, having offense aligned,

getting a little healthier, having worse back, of course, always helps. But just overall, I think streamlining it in a little bit in a way, which is kind of sounds counterintuitive, but I do think they'll benefit you because the receivers are good and Tom Brady can still make some throws. One thing with the Bucks on offense in this game that I did want to mention, Jeremy Chin was playing in the slot because of where the Panthers are at corner. Before two of those go balls to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin had completions while working against Jeremy Chin on second or third down. So an immediate and obvious impact on the game with Chin playing the slot over Godwin. Jeremy Chin's a fantastic athlete. The fact that he could even almost hold up there is remarkable at his side.

Right. Jeremy Chin on Chris Godwin in the slot is a mismatch for the Bucks. And it's a mismatch they took advantage of multiple times. The last thing I wanted to mention, the Jake Kamar to punt at the end of this game was absolutely insane. It's a doozy. It's a huge play. I want to talk about this entire sequence. I would love for someone in the football analytics community if this research has been done to look at this for me. The Panthers have the ball with a minute and change left and they're driving.

They're inside the buck's like 30 yard line. They play for the field goal because they have three timeouts left. Anecdotally, it just feels to me like you're closer to the end zone than you're probably going to be again. I'm going to try to score a touchdown there, even if I have three timeouts left, and then try to kick the field goal later, even if I take up more time. Because it doesn't make sense to me. Even if you have three timeouts left, even you get the ball back with 45 seconds left, if you onside kick it, you're very likely. going to get the ball inside your own 20 or something close to it. And now you have to go all the way down the field with no timeouts to score a touchdown.

So I would love to know what the actual numbers say about that situation and what the sequence of it should look like. Because it makes sense. We say, all right, well, we have three timeouts left. We need two scores anyway. We might as well kick the three here. It just feels like that's not the right way to go about it. I think it's a two score.

You're trying to get yourself a chance because you're going for the touchdown. you don't get. But are you really giving yourself a chance? You can say now it's a one-scorer game. I just, it doesn't feel like the most efficient way to do that. But I would love to see what the number is said. Yeah.

So anyway. And three timeouts gives you, there's pads when you have a time-ups like that. I would not use the time-outs. That would, I would not even think about using the time-outs. But let's say 20 more seconds take off the clock and there are 40 seconds left. Okay.

Would you rather have 20 seconds or 25 seconds to kick a field goal? and only happen to go 30 yards, or would you rather have 45 seconds, and you have to go 80 yards and score a touchdown? Yeah. Well, I don't know. Those two scenarios, yeah, but. But that's about what it feels like.

Yeah. If you play that out, that's kind of what the timing feels like. There were 41 seconds left, okay, when Kamara snapped the ball for that first punt. There were 41 seconds. So the Bucks would have had, or the Panthers would have had the ball

if that punt had just played out with like 35 seconds left to go all the way down the field to score a touchdown. It just feels like even if there are 15 or 20 seconds fewer, and you'd have to see how many plays was worth playing out. I don't know the exact right way to go about it. In the moment I was thinking about it, is this right? Like, are you supposed to take the three here?

I could be wrong, but I would love for someone who has done the research to reach out because I would love to learn more about it. But anyway, with 40 seconds left, the bucks are punting. Comarda misses, it's a low snap, he mishandles it. It is a potentially so devastating of a play. Greg Olson on the broadcast goes, oh my God. Yeah. He does a few of those, which are great.

He has to, which it was great because it was a human reaction. Camarda fields the punt somehow manages to run up the sideline, get the punt off, and it rolls down to the one yard line. The punt doesn't end up counting because there was an illegal man downfield for the bucks. but he gets the pun off and they have to punt it again, 20 seconds runs off. So now Carolina gets the ball back with 20 seconds left in the game and they have to go 80-something yards. So him getting that off and not taking, not getting tackled at the 40-yard line changes the game. Changes their season.

Yes. Getting that off and changes your entire season. Game of inches right then and there, every position, even the punter handling a snap and all that. No, but it was, there's a couple sweet punts today. There's another one that's coming to the back of my mind. But no, that, that was, that's a great example of one. But all those, that's the thing, this, that game, even in a weird way, it kind of almost felt like a Mac championship or a Sunbelt championship. It felt like a playoff game, but it just, you know, maybe not like a true, true, true, true divisional round playoff game.

But it did. It felt like the teams thrown some haymakers a little bit, throwing some changeups and everything. It actually had some of those feelings and some of those tense moments. It's frustrating that for so much of this season, as I thought about the Bucks and I thought about the NFC South and even their potential to make noise in the NFC playoffs, my mind just kept coming back to, well, the Bucks have Tom Brady and Mike Evans. It still feels like this is going to be the best team in the division, no matter how uneven and disjointed, it's looked over the course of the year.

That's what we said this preseason. Yeah. If things fall into place, if we see the best version of them, that ceiling, can still give somebody a problem when we get to the postseason. And then we went 25 different directions over a 17 week period. And then you get to the final game of the year when they have to get this. And that was the answer. They had Tom Brady and Mike Evans.

The best version of them is still potentially dangerous. And they're going to make the playoffs. So no matter how winding the road, we eventually reached the conclusion that I was trying to avoid for most of the year. because I felt it wasn't an interesting way to explain things. No, it's literally what we talked about in the preseason. It was like, well, you know, they might have, they feel kind of zombieish, but you know, they still have some dudes, especially on defense as well. And it's there you are.

There's Chris Godwin catching another ball over the middle going over a hundred yards. There's Mike Evans running another vertical route for a touchdown. And there's Lenny Fernette tripping a following for another eight yards. Like that's like what that was, that's what this offense is. And sure enough, here we are, January. New Year January 1st right now, and this is what they are going into the playoffs. I can't believe it because we even talked about it. It's like that's not joking like we don't want the Bucks team to playoffs, but it was like,

at least the Panthers are interesting because it's like something new to talk about. This Bucks team, it's like we've had this conversation all year. The offense is, oh, can't get going. It feels like they're running into a wall. Still kind of feels like that, but at least there's some highs now. There's some just looseness and explosive explosiveness. They tied their most explosive plays today from the entire season. surpassed it.

Yeah, it's surpassed it. They have two. They have five now. I guess, of course, it's against the Panthers who I'm like watching and I'm like, well, this panthers defense is going to give us some issues, you know, and it's like, of course, this is what they do. It's a perfect storm. It's the issue.

It's a corner. Plus, you made the point. Getting the offensive line back healthy. Huge. Getting your both of your tackles, even if it's been a dime year for Donovan Smith, Donovan Smith is better than left tackle number three that they had to deal with against the Cardinals. Right.

So here we are. The bucks are in the playoffs. and they'll probably be playing the Cowboys and we'll see what happens. Speaking of teams in the playoffs, next one here and you have my attention. Brian Daibol and the New York Giants. You have my attention.

I understand it's the Colts. I understand the Colts are falling apart. Colts are actually a pretty darn good defense. And they have been a pretty darn good might be overstating it. The Colts have been a good NFL defense, a top 12-ish NFL defense for most of this season.

As everything is crater for them offensively, they've still been able to stop people or at least give them problems. The Giants coming into this game were 11th and weighted offensive DBOA. After what they just did to the Colts, they will likely be in the top 10 after this season is over. I would like to read to you a list of the Giants' most targeted receivers from this season. Okay. Number one is Sequin Barkley.

That's fine. But if you're running back leads your team in targets, it probably says a lot. It's like a safety leading your team in tackles. Yeah. You don't really want that. So let's get to the non-Saqaun-Barkley players on the Giants. Darius Slate in second. Darius Slateon has been pretty good for the Giants this year.

In terms of efficiency, he's been one of the most effective receivers in the league. I've always thought he was talented, but again, Darius Slaten is somebody that had been marginalized by this franchise over time. He was their most targeted non-runningback of the year. Number two is Richie James. Number three is Isaiah Hodgins. who was a practice squad player. Yes, I was going to say.

Number four is Daniel Bellinger, who was a rookie tight end, and then Wondell Robinson is fifth. Wondell Robinson played in six games. He hasn't played since week 11. It's going to say he hasn't played in forever. Those are the guys. They are going to be a top 10 team in passing weighted DVOA after this season is over. Oh, we, okay, I've made jokes about how this is them running the ball.

And Daniel Jones is like a, you know, blunt force instrument as a runner. And as passing game, though, it's kind of the same philosophy with this passing game in the sense that it's a lot of, it's very streamlined. And I mean this as a compliment, not derogatory. It's, it's very a lot of nakeds, a lot of bootlegs. They have 131 dropbacks from under center this year. How many do you think are play action?

131. 31. I bet it's like 70%. 129 of those 131 dropbacks. 98.5% of their undercentered dropbacks are play action. So they know how to make this simple and like to really lean into what their strengths are. And that helps though because Danae Jones is a fantastic runner. He has the second most scrambles in the NFL beyond only Justin Fields.

Successful about two thirds of those. So naked or bootlegs and play action gives a lot of space for the quarterback as a runner. But also in this passing game, the blunt force. instrument of this passing game is they only major in a couple of concepts, and they just, they're sound concepts, they run a lot. They run the concept snag. What snag is, is a three-man concept. You have an inside hitch, a flat and a corner.

Every NFL runs it. Every NFL offense runs it. Every college offense runs it. A lot of high school offenses run. This is a day one staple. They run it over and over and over, and then they'll change up the two-man concept on the other side. This game, they change it up, but they also ran a lot of choice routes.

because against a cover three team, you can get a linebacker on a slot guy. Sometimes it was Slayton, sometimes it was other guys. They spammed it. I would say at least a half dozen times they called that. And they paired snag with other concepts as well. And what they did for Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones is a, what I think I've never met him. I've never interviewed him. I think he went to Duke, I'm assuming you're very smart on the whiteboard.

When bullets start flying, he can kind of get scatterbrained and kind of take it a little too long to make his decisions because he's trying to get to the perfect thing. And that happens sometimes with smarter guys. That's why sometimes those fumbles would happen because he's holding on the ball, holding on the ball. What I think they've done with this drop back passing game when they do drop back is go, if it's single high, you're looking this way. If it's too high, you're looking this way. And I think it's helped him make decisions and turn into a runner quicker as well. Because he can just go one to two to scramble, one to two to scramble. And I think I'm complimenting the offensive coaches for doing this.

They're going, we're doing sound concepts. We don't have overwhelming receiver talent. Jones has some flaws, but he does have some strengths. Let's lean into it. Let's just let them make these throws or strangle. And it's working. It's really working. And I mean, this passing game should not be anywhere near the top 10.

And the fact that they're doing it is super, super impressive and how they're doing it. And nothing revolutionary, but just good ball. It's just good football. That's what they're doing. He can rip it, man. He was a top 10 pick. He can rip it. He's got such, his incredible traits.

He has such incredible traits. He can throw every throw when he's in rhythm and he can run. He's a great athlete. It's just that sometimes just as always put together. This game was a perfect example. He's ripping throws. He made multiple plays with his legs. I love the little, we talk about it in a second, but made multiple plays with his

legs. And just some of the designs are beautiful. I thought that, I think Hodgins actually has some wiggle to his game and I think he's actually okay. But he's the perfect example of what this team has done this year. He was a sixth round pick by the bills in 2020. So he was there when Joe Shane was the assistant general manager in Buffalo. He worked with Brian Dable.

This is the guy they got, I believe, off waivers. You know, he's somebody that had bounced around. He comes in for them and does a great job. He has been like a really solid, workable NFL receiver since they got him. He has been a really good contributor for them. And when you're scraping the bottom of the barrel personnel-wise, because you're at this stage of your team-building process, you can find guys like this. I don't know how it plays out for Isaiah Hodgins, but he's given them a lot more than you would expect.

And they've done that consistently with guys. So I think that that is a part of this success story here. But the other part is that this offensive staff has done so much more than you could possibly imagine with the players on offense. With Daniel Jones, with the receiving talent that they have, with their running game. They ran a play today in the second quarter. It was a chunk run by Saquant Barkley. It was a 20-yard game. Daniel Bellinger lined up at fullback.

he cuts DeForest Buckner as the three technique on the play. They leave him on blocked and he cuts him from a full back alignment. allows Gawinsky to get up to the second level. They do a little wipe with Feliziano on the left guard. Guard blocks down. Fliciano rolls off. He now, Fulciano is now leading up on a safety.

It's just crazy shit happening. And he didn't even have a clean pole. He got caught and he still. And he had no one's stuck. He had no money to block. He says because of how well it works. self, yeah. And they have Hodgins cracking.

So Hodgians comes in and cracks. And then later in the game, Bellinger was lined up in fullback again. And they ran that, we've seen this play a million times where the tight end, fullback goes vertical off play action. The Niners do it a lot with a leak him out. And they did it's Belanger for a chunk game. Yep. It's like it all makes sense.

It all fits in together. And this is a long wind way of me saying, I pick Brian Dable to win coach of the year midway through the season. Brian Dable is the coach of the year. Wow. I like it. I'm not, I understand that argument all. away. This team making the playoffs and this team doing this on offense with this offensive personnel is remarkable. I mean, this is a good NFL offense with these players. And the last thing, him taking Daniel Jones out and giving him that little moment after the game that Daniel Jones had, those little touches to me, I think are indicative of how thoughtful and intentional he has been a lot of the choices about a lot of the choices he's made since he got there.

the choice to not call plays, the way that he picked his offensive staff, going to get Mike Kafka because he thought, not Mike Kafka is my buddy and I want to give Mike Kafka a job, but he didn't know Mike Kafka. He just liked a lot of the stuff that the Chiefs did on offense. And I think that a lot of the ways they went about this, I'm not surprised that they're having success. I am surprised they're having this level of success. Yeah. I thought the bottom was starting to fall out for them and then they just revamped it and they just kind of plugged it. Getting the offensive line healthy was big. Always.

That's the last thing. I think getting Neil back, Feliciano missed some time, getting Gates back at guard. Like now they have their five guys are close to it that they wanted to the beginning of the season. I think that's a big part of it. And then stumbling into guys like Isaiah Hodgins,

you know? Yep. And give them run and finding ways to use them smart or intelligently, I should say, as I stumble through that word. The other thing, still this just speaks to that. them. Like, they are very in tune, just like you said with the Bellinger wheel route or out of the

backfield route, is they're extremely in tune with their own tendencies. And that just speaks to good coaching. The fact that they look at them because last week, they went into pony personnel three times. So they've used pony throughout the year with Sequin and Matt Breda. Sequin is their number one receiver. Yes. And this week, they split them out. They run a fake end around with them. So last week, three times they ran it. All three runs went to Seekwan. This week, they ran it four times a pony. All four runs went to Brita. And they used Sequin as a decoy in all four runs.

Because last week, all three runs went to Sequin. So they're just like, hey, you know that. We know that you know that. So watch what we're doing right now. And it worked well. But they just know that stuff. It's nothing revolutionary, but it's good. This is why we go nuts about this is because it's just soundness.

And that's why this is sustainable. This is why they're in so many games. It's because they don't shoot themselves in the foot is not maybe the phrase I'm looking for, but they, they always are going to find ways to at least look competent. And sometimes when you go against a team like the Colts, it looks good, good. And shoot, that's why it's the top 10 offense right now. And that's how they're playing. It looks like it.

It doesn't look lucky. I think that's the phrase I'm looking for it. It doesn't look lucky. It looks put together and there's soundness to it. It's not just highs and lows. It's very sustainable. Efficiency numbers bear that out. The fact that it's not, they're not stumbling into this.

They've managed to build something. And everything's cognizant. Like, they are in tune with everything. they do. They do it for a reason. You and I have talked about this off air, how one of the lessons from this season, which I'm sure we'll talk about a lot over the next six months, has been that you need the dudes. Now we're going to get to a team specifically that exemplifies that here in a second. You need the dudes. Yes. So I don't, I'm not going to crush teams that are struggling to put forth an efficient offense without personnel, like the bears when they can't play. The bears.

because of where the offensive line. I think that the Bears' offensive staff is on a fine job this season. The fact that they can't do it, I don't think is some indictment of them. I just think what the Giants have done is above and beyond. I don't think we should look at the Giants and say, well, look at what the Giants have built without receiving talent and with not a great offensive line. Like that's incredible. Why can't so-and-so team do this? I still think it's very, very difficult to be a good team or even an average team with,

no roster talent and when you're not trying to win. That's why I think what the Giants have done is so amazing. Yeah. I bet you those Giants coaches are exhausted every single week. I can't imagine. That's the thing is stars, even we talk about this with quarterback play, but just stars in general, they make, they give you room for error and they make, not everything has to be perfect. This was always the argument.

This was just a great point. Not everything has to be perfect. But then when you don't have stars, everything does have to be perfect. And everybody has to be in tune. And boom, boom, boom, boom. That's why you want stars that makes the coaching element less in the equation or smaller in the equation. The Giants, it's like that equation feels like it's 80% coaches. That's why he's the coach of the year.

That's a great call. But even with even just the staff they put together, you talked about the offense, having wink on defense. Wink is, wink Martinale, what they do is such an outlier compared to everybody else. that makes them hard because there's no carryover from the previous week for opposing teams. Everything they do makes it hard on the other teams, makes them work for it. They make everybody else work for it while they probably work their asses off too. But that's just being an outlier in defense and what you run or offense as well, that's just, it's like a triple option team in college football.

Shit, we got to spend an extra week doing this look and this on third down and this and the red zone. Same exact thing. But that just speaks to the staff he put together. So I'm not, I'm not fighting you on it. I still have to think about it because I know we're going to do our award stuff, but he's, he's on the podium, no matter how you argue it. I don't care what anyone else says.

I don't know what happens in the playoffs, but if they end up playing Minnesota in the wild car run, they can beat Minnesota. What are you, bowl? If the Niners get the three, get the three seed, they have to go to San Francisco, they might get their doors blown off against the Niners. That doesn't detract at all from what they have accomplished this season. They're not in the schedule. Them doing what they've done on offense with this group of players is one of the most impressive things anybody has pulled off in 2022 in the NFL.

I truly believe it might be the most impressive and that's why he's there for me. All right. Last one here and you have my attention. Speaking of stars, Christian McCaffrey and Nick Bosa, just very quickly. You guys have our attention. Two small moments at the end of that game. That screen that McCaffrey takes and the way he sets up his blocks and waits to make that play happen. and then Bosa running the left tackle, running Cole Miller into the quarterback to force that last

interception to win the game for the Niners. Every single week. And then beyond what Iyuk did, every single week. Kittal. These guys have two or three players that are all pro-level players that make a huge impact for them and it results in wins more often than not, especially over the last couple months. And this was just another example of that. That's the stars, man.

That trap run originally to CMC was beautiful and that was just blocking and everything. But then that screen pass, that's what talented players do, not just running backs by every players. It's just everything's not perfect there. The blocks weren't perfect. You know, he got the ball a little too quickly there on the screen, but bounces, bounces, sets up two blocks. And then boom, boom, it's an efficient play, close to an explosive play, I think, too.

But having a CMC and why having a talented pass catching running back, not just, up talented runner who can run every scheme. So since CMC has been traded to the 49ers, he has 62 targets. So I was just looking. And CMC always rings highly in receiving stats. He has first downs per route since he's been traded in 49ers, 10%. 10.3% first down per route. That would be between Devante Adams and AJ Brown.

And so the running back average is 4.8%. On third and fourth down, it's almost 9%. The running back average is 4.4%. That is a third fourth down first down. down per route about 9%. Why I'm bringing that up is he had at least two today. There's one about 13 minutes left in the second quarter is third and four. He catches a flat route about one yard past the line scrimmage. The safety for the Raiders has him dead to rights. And he just slips through it, gets a first down. And it's one of those that you never, it's not supposed to play.

It's a four yard gain. But it gets a first down. 80% of running backs, that's a tackle. One year tackle, done. Okay, now it's fourth and three. We're punting. We're no man's land. Oh my God. It gets the first down. We don't even think of it. We don't even bat an eye. That's what good players do. They just accumulate these. It's not always just a splash place.

It's just these are good, efficient plays. They stack one after another and just see them seeing that. And that entire offense, they have just five of the, four of those guys. And then juice checks a nice role player that can just do this on every play. Depot's not even playing. I know. I know. They keep showing them to the sideline.

They've got Joanne Jennings. They don't even miss a beat. It's crazy. And that's, you're just talking about his stats when he's being. targeted. It's beyond the gravity that he has within the passing game, which is real. We've talked about it. There are numbers when they have five guys out in routes and them using him in high lows and route combinations on third down. The way that he's impacting the game is incredible. And we'll see what happens over time. Now, when you trade multiple picks for a guy

and multiple high picks, these are years down the road considerations. And it is a short term bet that they made. The short term aspect of the bet has paid off so much. bigger than I even could have anticipated. Absolutely. He has transformed their offense. And I don't know what the end game is. And if they fall short of a Super Bowl and now they don't have all these picks and what does it look like two, three years down the line, we can have that conversation later. But even in the best case scenario of what he could be within their offense, I did not envision this. Because what he does for them as a receiver is fivefold, the impact that he has and all the things that he can do.

And then what he has done as a runner, dropping him in there, he's been incredible. Like he has been so, so good for them. Him as a receiver, it's not the, I think a lot of people with these scatbacks

and past catching running backs, they like the idea of them, but not actually them in practice. CMC as a receiver is a very real threat who could look a very real route tree. It's very real. So that's why when they use him and split them out or, you know,

people's been hurt, but, you know, moving these guys around on the formation, it's just like, It's a real threat. It's not just like, oh, CMC is at the one spot. He's going to run a go or a hitch. That's easy to cover.

Just waste a line back around him or a corner. We work fine. No, it's actually, they have to account for him because he run a full, full route tree. And no, we're just talking about stars with the 49ers. Talk about stars stepping up. Devante Adams for the Raiders. Oh, my God. Stars step up in these moments.

And that's, that's the difference. And the fourioners got a litany of them on both sides of the ball. And that CMC trade happened right before we did that Thursday, random Thursday show. What game was that? It doesn't matter at this point in time. I think it was Saints Cardinals or something like that. Yeah. So when that trade happened, one of the arguments you and I had was, well, look at the NFC.

And look at the NFC. Don't you feel pretty damn good? This is why you make that move. This is the argument for that. Like you said, yes, you'll pay the Piper later. Who knows what happens? But right now you understand why they did it because this NFC is wide open and they can hang with anybody and they're actually one of the contenders even with a Brock Purdy Mr.

irrelevant at quarterback. And he's one of the reasons. He is driving that success. He's just not along for the ride. He has had a huge impact on why they look the way they look on offense and why Brock Purdy might not be enough to sink their Super Bowl chances. Right. So after that win today and after the Eagles loss, there is a real chance now that the Niners

could potentially get the one seat in the NFC. but I don't think the Giants have much to play for next week, right? The Giants probably locked into the sixth seed. So we'll see what happens. But the Niners now have a chance theoretically to be the one seat in the NFC if they win next week. And well, so if they win next week and the Eagles lose, then the Niners would be the one seat in the NFC, I believe. So they would both be 13 and 4. After watching that Eagles game today, are you at all worried about the Eagles?

No, I mean, we've got to, hopefully Hertz comes back a little bit with their offense. But I mean, you look at the big plays for the offense. It's just like, or the bad plays, I should say, for that offense. The first sack was the running back and protection. You know, that's not on the quarterback. Sack two, the Saints players were running the routes for the Eagles on their high or low. Third one, they covered their RPO. Third and three, Devante Smith, slot fade that's covered.

Third and 13, Minchew sales a route, but it's the same concept that the Eagles run all the time on third longs. And so that's what I'm saying. Jayone Hertz is, of course, going to help out. But Saints were covering their shit. Like, they're covering them on offense. And that's just their offense. And I do think their run game is going to be sustainable. You see all the tackle stuff they were doing.

The tackle pull stuff with Jordan Milaata in the second half. And that made sense. But then their big plays were a receiver screen. The tackle pulled out and up to AJ Brown. It's kind of the same stuff they do with and without Hertz. But I do want one thing I am getting worried about with their defense. And the Cowboys exposed. a little bit, all that stuff to the slot.

That's CD-LAM, I understand that. But throws to the slot when Josiah Scott is their nickel. Okay, so they've given up last two weeks. They've given up five explosive plays on 29 throws to the slot. Okay, when Scott is on the field this season as the nickel, they have 44.6 defensive success rate

to throw us to the slot. That's the worst mark in the NFL by, if you just went overall. Overall, the worst, if you went not just throws to the slots, 49% is the Cardinals have the worst past success defense. So worse than that on throws to Josiah Scott when it's in the slot. They're 27th just on throws at slot. There's something that's getting picked at by opposing teams.

I agree. The Saints did it with Alave and slot formations. The Cowboys did it last week with empty formations, but now it's on tape. And it's on tape in Week 16 and Week 17. So that's more than anything, what I'm getting most worried about with this Eagles team is still a very good team. But that is just something that's getting magnified right now as they're hit playoff time. I think you could pick on them in zone coverage right now based on what they look like. And we saw it against Dallas and there were some moments that were like that today.

On offense, a couple short yardage things go differently. This game potentially goes different. That third and one RPO you mentioned, they didn't get a fourth and one quarterback sneak. If that's hurts, they probably get it. And then to pick six. So a couple of sliding doors moments in this game where they easily could have beaten the Saints. When they get hurts back, I think obviously it's going to make a huge difference. The one thing, Lane Johnson now playing, I think does matter and is going to matter.

I think that showed up a couple different times today. So I'm not worried, but just a couple things to keep in mind with the Eagles as we move forward. That's what happens in December of January. Just those little things that at first you're kind of like, oh, we can wave that away. Also, you're like, oh, shoot, that's an issue. And that's kind of what's going on with the Eagles as far as defense. And again, like you said, Lane Johnson, the backup has played played okay. Jack, what's his face?

But he put okay. Thank you. There's Jack Stole and Jack Driscoll. So I, Jack, blank. But he played fine. But it's, yeah, Lane Johnson, though, was playing at all pro level at the right side. That's always going to be a drop off. So always something to mention.

All right. We're going to take one more quick break and talk about a couple of teams that hurt their playoff chances today. Man, we're still cool. I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed. All right. Let's start with the New York Jets. They lose to Seattle 23 to 6 today, eliminating them from playoff contention.

And why this is disappointing is the door was open. It was. The Patriots beating Miami, the Jets had a real chance here if they knocked off the Seahawks to get back in this conversation and now it's over. And the longest playoff drought in the NFL continues, a season that seems like it had so much promise. They were seven and four. They were rolling. They had the best vibes in the league, especially the defense. And you had the way that everything was feeling over there to seven and nine and now out of the playoffs.

talking about what went wrong kind of what stuck out to you in this game where do you would you start with the Jets so would they play the Jets played the Vikings I believe we were did kind of the game plan stuff and I was like man you know how you get after this Jets defense is you get them a base I'm first as I could doubt I knew you were going this route because I was going to go the same route I was waiting for a team to finally do it and sorry Jets fans I don't mean to sound excited I'm excited about my own like kind of personnel study here. So the Seahawks were in 12, 13, and 21 on 28 plays. Okay. 20 of those plays, the Jets matched with base, base being three linebackers, which is Quana Alexander on the field for them.

10 runs, 10 dropbacks. Nice little split there. 50% overall success rate the Seahawks had. 7 out of 10 other past plays were successful. Then there were some big plays here. Kenneth Walker's opening TD, the Parkinson TD in the red zone, the big corner route to Noah Fant the first quarter. they would go empty in 13 personnel. They ran some plays to Parkinson. Mabry, call me Mabry, was in a his touchdown was in a 13 personnel look in the red zone. They ran stick and they got him.

But it was like they finally. I believe the big play to DJ Dallas too. Was that a happy person? Checked out of DJ Dallas. That went for a huge game. Yes, it did. So all these plays were them in the 12, 13 or 21 personnel and then taking advantage of the jets are kind of basic once again these looks and very predictable.

with their fronts. And that's why you can kind of get after them. Coverage-wise, I know what you're going to do, cover three usually, and also is their fronts that they play. And that's why they got after them in the run game as well. And on top of it, the other thing is the Jets, doing that study on the Eagles and their defense and empty is the other defenses that stood out to me that were porous defending empty were the Jets and the Vikings because they don't change their looks.

They check in the cover four, cover six, when they're going against empty offenses. See, Alex, watch tape. And they had Tyler Lockett, I sewed up with C.J. Mosley. Like, you know, it's just, the Cioxx had a really good game plan, especially on offense. And this Jets defense with all these dynamic players, they just kind of felt a page behind. They really felt this entire game. They just felt like that. And especially when they know their offense wasn't going to put up any points consistently that they were hoping for it.

It's kind of like, it was a tough day for them at the office. The getting in Bason throwing out of it was the number one thing I was going to mention with this. with the Seahawks offense. All of those explosive ways. 0.79 EPA per drop back against base. That corner out to Noah Phant was a beautiful design. They had Lockett going in jet motion from right to left. So Gardner followed him.

So you clear out the right side. And then they had Fant as the number. They had two tight ends to that side. Fant loops inside of the second tight end. So it kind of creates a little bit of separation, runs right by Jordan Whitehead. It was awesome. The design, the second tight end,

I probably was Parkinson to that side. It hits the defensive end to slow him down. They move the pocket off play. So just every aspect of that play, I was like, that's a cool play. And it creates an explosive game. The DJ Dallas touchdown. I don't know as matchup creation doesn't matter as much as Gino making something work there, which Gino did several times with his legs in this game. He had several just make something happen plays.

They were moving the pocket. His movement had a big impact on what the Seahawks offense could accomplish. So that was kind of the bones of their plan on that side of the ball and why they were successful. on the other side of the ball, a couple bad turnovers. The first decision, the first interception of the decision on that play by Mike White, I think leaves a lot to be desired.

Yeah. So that's where I think some of the problems in the passing game start. My biggest issue with the Jets offense, and I think what we haven't really talked a lot about, they lost the engine of this thing when Brees Hall went down. Yes, that was the juice. I don't know if, and the numbers, the numbers are bad, okay?

So in this game specifically, 35% rushing success rate, or excuse me, yeah, 35% rushing success rate, negative.19 EPA. It was almost exactly what the Vikings did against the Packers, just not good on the day, essentially, is how to contextualize it. 35% of the Jets runs in this game went for negative or no yardage. Yeah, that's a tough way to live.

Which is the toughest mark, which is the worst mark in the league this week in week 17. So you're putting Mike White in really bad situations throughout this game. And I think that has been one of the underlying issues with the Jets offense for a good chunk of this season. On plays without Brees Hall on the field this year, the Jets were dead last in the NFL and rushing success rate, and 30th in the league in EPA per rush.

I don't think that's solely a product of Brees Hall. I think that there are some... There are some comorbidities happening there, where you have, like, there's some other issues that are going on, but I do think that their inability to run the ball consistently for after he went down and for a good chunk of this season has been one of the reasons that their offense has struggled. It's like an offense without four-yard gains. It's kind of efficient running is like the theme of this show.

But it feels like when they do successfully run, it's an eight or 12-yard gain. And there's just none of those kind of just singles and doubles. And then it just and then it goes into, okay, third down, Mike White, rip a dig route on third and 12 or third nine. Like really, there were a lot of third and 12th and third-nines today. Tough throws. Those are tough. And unless you've got a true guy or an awesome game plan, those are tough to consistently convert on. And that's why we freak out when the offense goes like 12 for 15 on third down because even at best, you're going like 40% on those.

And so just when you're not sustaining on first and second down, that's just you're not going to have a good day at the office, especially where you're not doing the explosive plays as well. And it just felt like they didn't have any chunks to make out of in this entire game. So yeah, it was rough. And this is what happens. This is an offense that was starting Zach Wilson, who statistically and just eye test one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. And then Mike White. And as much as Mike White would make some fun plays and he's tough as hell, there's a reason. Mike White was better than Zach Wilson.

Yeah. But not. That's the bar that Mike White had cleared. Yeah. He was standing in making some tough as hell throws. Yes. While getting absolutely folded in half. Yes.

But he is still a guy that has bounced around the league. and is probably not a starting quarterback in the NFL. So it's all comparative and it's all relative. And I think that brings us to a conversation about the Jets future, which we don't have to linger on because we've had it a lot. They have some stuff to figure out on offense. They need to figure out what's going to happen up front, whether it's getting healthy and what's going to happen to tackle for them

and what's going to happen to quarterback. I think I'm still excited about the defense. I think the defense is a ton of talent. They're going to be just fine. But the questions on offense are going to remain. And until they solve those, these sorts of just miss the playoff moments are that's the reality. They have like five different sized bets to make on their offense to the off season.

They, you know, let's see how they hit them. I'm just curious how much they wager on each one. Offense line, quarterback, all that stuff. So I'm curious which way they go. So we talked about it earlier. Seahawks, they need a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs, which absolutely is on the table. So the Seahawks are still alive. You know, they've had their impressive moments all season.

And we'll see if they can squeak in. based on what happens in week 18. In the AFC, the Patriots beat Miami today. So they, with a win over the bills in week 18, they're in. If the Patriots lose, they need a Dolphins loss, a Steelers loss, and the Jags over the Titans to make the playoffs, I believe. In that scenario, if the Titans beat the Jags, then I think the Jags are the Wild Card team or another wild card team.

So there's a lot of stuff that could happen. But the Patriots with a win do get in. And they're playing the bills. The bills are going to have something to play for. We'll talk about that Patriots Dolphins game just for a second. Anything. What do you, what's your takeaway from that? Like where are we out with the Patriots Dolphins game today?

Same thing. Because the dolphins you can't really talk about with Scott or Thompson taking some most of the snaps. That's what socks. Yeah, but I, same thing, same discussion I've had probably the last two and a half months with this Patriots offense and defenses. Defense good, offense, bad. And it's just, it's, I really like the defense because the players, I'm telling you,

this is one of the fastest Belichick defenses I ever seen when you got the guys like Uche and Dugger running around. Like, I mean, they got some real, real talented guys. And then he just watched this offense once, I mean, Mac Jones threw a sail route to Hunter Henry on third down. That was fucking beautiful. And I cannot wait. Great design.

I cannot. Oh, he had the over and then he took it out. and it gets man coverage. It was beautiful. I've been in an offense where we called that Spinnaker because it's a sale. And Spinnaker was the long developing one because it's the longest developing word. So we were trying to find some long word. So that was the Spinnaker route from the three spot.

But oh my God, beautiful thrill. But you don't see a lot of those. And that's what Mack Jones is really, that's what Mac Jones threw in college over and over and over. Sail routes like that and overs over and over and over and over. And instead, you're watching this offense. I mean, this Dolphins game was a perfect example. They're so bad against the Blitz. And I feel for Mack Jones, it's not a quarterback stat with this because they have a 30% success rate on the season against the blitz, which is like way at the bottom.

Lowest EPA per dropback against Blitz. Way at the bottom. Even this week, they had three sacks, five QB hits. And if you look at the heat chart, I was finally curious and I looked on True Media and I tweeted at the heat chart, it looks like a Baylor Tennessee offense or a Mac Canada offense. Against the blitz, it's all these goes on the outside. you throw goes once in a while when you have Mike Evans on the outside and Tom Brady ripping 50-yard bombs. Mack Jones thrown to, you know, insert name here, Tyquant Thornton, who could get deep, but it's not their strengths is what I'm saying. I realize I just went against myself because Thornton was a Baylor guy as well.

But it's just like that is just not that's not really what you want to make a living off it. That's not a hot route. That's an advantage throw. That's a we have a better do than you do. right now. Not what you want to make a living on? And that's what they run four verts on third down all the time. This offense is just like, I want to pull my hair out. Just there's a good thing Mac Jones gets rid of the ball quick and knows that he's hot or knows that he might be on some issues. There's so many throws, he got rid of the ball and the dolphins had a free runner. On times,

they shouldn't have a free runner when they're blitzing. It should be protected. But it's not just past protection with the running backs. There's a third and one that got blown up because a running back didn't step up, but it's just the offense align. Their eyes are just terrible. And weird, the offense coordinator is the same as the offense line coach or the play caller. And it just just, I can't like, I keep bashing this every week, but it's not getting better. And it's just unbelievable. This team might make the playoffs. So I haven't said all that. They certainly might because the dolphins can't seem to have a quarterback finish a game for them right now, which has been a huge issue of the entire year. It's not just playing Teddy Bridgewater. It's that most games Teddy Bridgewater seems to play.

He does, he's not finishing. So now you go to your third string. quarterback and it's hard to win that way. And I think the other thing about the dolphins in this game, it wasn't hard to win that way. 27 carries for 86 yards, less than one yard before contact per rush. And we were talking about the little evolution of the Dolphins offense, the next step steps they had to take. They were running the ball really well over the last couple weeks. And not been able to rely on that when you have a backup third string quarterback in the

game. That's a concern. It's the Patriots were the best run defense out of base. The Dolphins love being a 21 personnel. There you go. Not a good equation for your. game right then and there. I will say the little design on the vertical route to Jacoby Myers out of the backfield in Florida quarter was a huge play. I was just making fun of

I said it's not conducive to their personnel. I do like the Patriots receivers. Like I do. Jacob Myers is a good player. He's a good player. He should get paid this offseason coming out of the backfield. He drew the pass interference down the field and then he had the touchdown to finish it off. Touchdown. He could toward his whole body. I know. Jacoby Myers is really good. He could be a good number two for somebody. Tyco on Thornton is going to be okay. Of course, Kendrick Bourne. Like, they're not, like, it's not shoddy.

It's just that you don't want Mac Jones throwing go balls. I think that's where I'm at. And it's also not a sustainable answer. We call those 50, 50 balls, and that's always a thing. But that's, that's why they have a 30% success rate, because usually it is 30, 70. The dolphins win next week with a dolphins winning over the jets and a Patriots loss, the dolphins are it. So they absolutely can still do it, but it's just one of those things where you're looking

at them playing back. of quarterbacks and the state of their offense is a result of it. And it's just, it's tough for them right now. All right, one more before we get out of here. Oh, do we have to? Yeah, I'm disappointed in the Washington football team for their choices. This is one of those reaping and sewing moments. I understand.

We had McDonald's last night. That's the choices. We had Burger King on the way home at two in the morning. Nice. Awesome. We waited in a very long Burger King, drive-thru line last night at two years on the way home new year's Eve it was 10 cars deep you really you really turned back the clock last night you really went for it it was it was 10 cars deep I all the

options for delivery were like 85 minutes oh I'm sure the Burger King is on the way home for me so I was driving home and I saw it I was I was like I got to do it just pulled it you just heard wopper Wopper, single double, triple, whopper. You heard the song. It was a choice. It was a choice that we made. Oh, my stomach. My stomach hated me this morning.

Anyway, speaking of choices and living with them. The Washington football team decided to go trade for Carson Wentz this off season. This week, they were faced with a choice. Our season is on the line. We have to win this game. We're going to Carson Wentz. I understand how you get there because Carson Wentz is a more talented quarterback than Taylor Heineke.

The theoretical upside of your offense with Carson Wentz is better than it is with Taylor Heineke. You don't want to have to make that choice. You have put yourself in this position by going to get Carson Wentz this offseason. So even if I get the decision to go to Wentz this week, this is the bed that they've made and they just had to live with it. Yeah, the best of a bad bunch. The Reggie Raglan quote was all you need. needed was after the game he said they could tee off on wence because he takes so long to wind up and throw the ball and that's man it's he's 30 i've seen enough i i'm actually more impressed

by doug peterson that rpo the super bowl year you know when foals took over uh when it's got hurt i'm more impressed by that than anything that's my biggest takeaway from this game is like wow they made a living on r pos with that long-ass release and that offense and that throwing style and everything But you tweeted that the secondary reception makes no sense. The first interception makes no sense. The first interception is man coverage. Yep. And Denzel Ward is on Terry McCorm.

He's on him the whole time. Yep. And it's great coverage. I understand that theoretically on that play, it's man coverage. It's your best receiver. It's a sort of double move. He should be open. He's not.

It's first down. What's the line you've heard me say? that was you can see quarterbacks listening to their feet. He double hitches. He hitches because he knows it's not open. And he goes, eh, throwing it anyways.

And if you look, it's a great interception. Throw it anyways. Yeah. When you're, that's what I've always been told in Philip Rivers that they would, I've had quarterback coaches make jokes about this, that Rivers took it to the extreme.

As soon as you get moved off the spot or you take that second hitch, check it down. That's, that's usually the coaching point is you second hits, your feet are telling you you're late, check it down. Wentz? Nah, override.

Override. There's a reason McCorn is basically out of bounds as that ball is getting there. It's because he's late because Wentz took that second hitch wishing it to come open. So it's like, ah, I mean, he does it all the time. And then the third interception, he pre-determines that he's throwing the alert. The alert's the alert. You read it. But he predetermines.

He knows he's throwing it. He's just, he's constantly late. He never shortens anything up. Footwork or motion. Watch all the times he throws a check. Sorry, I did not mean to go on a rant here. But it's just what watch all the times he goes on like it throws a flat or a swing route and the thing gets blown up. It's because he's late to it.

And so the defense has times the close on it. That's why I freak out with Dak and Mahomes. And I'm like, man, people make fun of me on Twitter. They're like, you really are highlighting a swing pass from Dak. And I'm like, yeah, because look how quick he gets that fucker out. And that helps. It helps the whole play. Yeah.

McKissick is open on a checkdown. If he just checks it down, there's absolutely a chance he gets the first down. Yeah. It's okay to check it down. And people are like, oh, it's a punt on that second interception. It's third and seven. They get the ball in midfield. It's like a punt.

Those aren't the only options. The options are punt or throw that interception. There are other things on the table. Not punt or arm putt. The other thing that compounded their struggles on offense today, 27.8% success rate rushing the ball. 0.43 yards per carry per rush, which was dead last in the league in week 17. They could not run the ball and Carson Wentz made the Carson Wentz mistakes.

And that's where they were. they're at. And that's where they're at. This team on offense with those quarterback decisions, it was always going to be some version of this in the long run, most likely. And that's what it ended up being. And then the defense didn't have a great day. In the second half, Cleveland found some life throwing the ball, which is shocking, considering what they've looked like over the last few weeks, even what they look like for most of the first half. So, you know, Washington with the state of the NFC had some chance to make the postseason with this version of how they're built. But this version of how they're built has a ceiling.

It has an endpoint. And we have reached the endpoint. And now it's a question of who's going to play quarterback for them in the short term because they need some sort of solution and they probably aren't in a spot to draft somebody. And they're not going to make the playoffs, which helps their draft position. Probably is good for everything but the job security of the people there. But this is not surprising when you think about the way they built this thing in the offseason, and the options that they had,

and this being the endpoint, again, not really all of that shocking. No, we knew the strength of this team is like their defense aligned, and that can keep them in games, but it's like that's the thing when the offense, whence offense is going to be highs and lows. He can make some flashpoints. He had a freaking awesome third and 17th

throughout the dots and a sail route. But then you need more than two of those. That's what he had. Two or three of those in this game. You need a half dozen to offset the half dozen bad place. It just, You can't live this way. And if you don't have that, you need to run the ball in the Browns, which teams have not been able to do.

Or teams have been able to do. If you're giving explosives for your team and their team, you always have to be efficient somewhere else, quick game or running the ball. And this is why we always come back to it. If you don't have one of those parts of the equation, it just makes everything else harder. Yeah, but at least they got a mascot out of this weekend. They have major tutty, major tutty. She has a mascot now. So at least they got that out of the weekend.

From one pig to two others. Congratulations to major tutty. All right. That's all we got for today. Really appreciate it, guys. Please subscribe to the YouTube channel if you have not subscribed to the YouTube channel. Monday night tomorrow. Yeah.

We'll be doing a live recap of Bengals, Chiefs. It's going to be a fantastic game. One of the games of the year. Biggles Bills. It's, it is. It's okay. It is midnight after being up until midnight last night for the first time in a while. Bengals, Bills, tomorrow is one.

of the biggest games of the year. Very, very excited. We're going to recap that live on YouTube. So please come check that out. We'll only be on YouTube. So will not be available as a podcast. So if you have not subscribed, now is the time. Now is the time to check out the YouTube channel.

Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show is where you can do that. We'll be back tomorrow with Mike Sando. We're going to check in on the literal health of the teams making the playoffs. Who's been, who's hurt, who's not? Where are these teams at? what have the trends been for some of their units? I just want to do a reset before we get to the playoffs because we have these ideas of certain units on teams and the strength of them.

That changes over the course of the season. This is honestly more for me than it might be for the listeners. I think it's a useful exercise at this point in the year before we get to playoff time. So that's what we're going to do with Sando tomorrow. Please come back and check that out. In the meantime, happy New Year to you guys. Thank you for spending the evening with us after what I'm sure has been a long day for many of you. We'll be back tomorrow.

Talk to you guys soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.