The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 2 DFS Plays and Picks Against the Spread

Episode Date: September 18, 2020

Falcons-Cowboys dominates the Week 2 DFS slate, but there is plenty of goodness to be found outside that game. Michael Beller and Brandon Funston help you find it...while also talking plenty about that likely scoring bonanza. Then, Beller and Vic Tafur highlight their five favorite picks against the spread among the 15 remaining Week 2 games.Rundown2:06 Games to Target in DFS Contests3:53 Dak Prescott Tops the QB List5:31 A Case for Kyler Murray7:14 Going Cheap at QB with Mitch Trubisky and Kirk Cousins8:59 Jonathan Taylor a DFS Free Space10:41 The RBs to Back if You Spend Big at the Position12:41 The Ronald Jones Argument14:13 Believing in Miles Sanders Right from the Jump17:07 Playing all the Falcons' and Cowboys' Receivers19:33 Emmanuel Sanders Climbs the Ranks21:18 Tampa Bay's Receivers with Chris Godwin (Concussion) Likely Out22:48 A Bounceback for Tyler Higbee24:38 Brandon Beats the Drum for Jared Cook25:53 Defense/Special Teams Plays30:24 Week 2 Picks Against the Spread32:35 Rams-Eagles33:47 Panthers-Buccaneers34:57 Broncos-Steelers36:42 Falcons-Cowboys38:27 49ers-Jets40:01 Bills-Dolphins41:45 Vikings-Colts43:08 Lions-Packers44:21 Giants-Bears46:17 Jaguars-Titans48:14 Washington-Cardinals50:23 Ravens-Texans51:30 Chiefs-Chargers53:38 Patriots-Seahawks55:13 Saints-Raiders57:55 Recapping our Picks, Plus a Look at SurvivorVic's Week 2 Picks ColumnFollow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Brandon on Twitter: @BrandonFunstonFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafurGet a subscription to The Athletic for $1/month at theathletic.com/fantasyfootballpod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is no better place to get in on all the football action than with Draft Kings, the leader in one day fantasy sports. To add to this week's excitement, Draft Kings has millions of dollars and total prizes up for grabs. If you haven't tried Draft Kings yet, head to the App Store now because you don't want to miss this. Draft your lineup now and feel the sweat like never before. Every run, pass, and catch means more of the Draft Kings. It's simple.

Just pick your lineup, stay under the salary cap, and see how your team stacks up against the competition. Nothing adds to the excitement of watching the game quite like having a shot at millions of dollars. and prizes. Draft Kings has paid out billions of dollars to win her since 2012, so they know a thing or two about cold hard cash. Download the Draft Kings app now and use code Maze. For a limited time, new users can get a free shot at millions of dollars in prizes this week.

Enter code Maze to get a free shot at millions of dollars and prizes with your first deposit. That's code Maze only at Draft Kings. Make it rain. Minimum $5 deposit required, eligibility, restrictions apply. See DraftKings.com for details. This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello, everyone, and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show here for Friday, September 18th. You know this if you've been listening on these Friday episodes, the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show, joined forces.

And we talk about a little bit of DFS and a little bit of gambling for the games ahead on Sunday. And Monday, I am Michael Beller for the fantasy portion of today's episode. I am joined by Brandon Funston. Funston, you're Made in Voyage. You ready for this? Oh, I'm absolutely ready for it. Let's go ahead and tackle this baby. All right, let's do it.

And hey, we're talking offensive players on the DFS side. So hopefully this is all the tackling that we end up talking about because we want to find the end zone with a bunch of these players. We are talking draft Kings prices, of course, here on the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and Athletic Football Show. We are going to start, however, with some of the juicy games to target. Of course, this is as simple as finding those high over-unders and hoping that they can come close to those numbers,

if not surpass them completely. Falcons Cowboys, that's the big prize in week two. 52 and a half is the over-under on that game. Next up, Ravens and Texans, 51-5. Saints and Raiders, that one's at 49.5 and, of course, going to be played without Michael Thomas, one of the very best offensive players that would be on the field in that game. And also, at his Monday night football,

so we are not talking a game that is on the main slate. Vikings and Colts checks in next at 48.5. And then we got a three trio of games at 47 and a half. Bucks Panthers, Washington at Arizona, and the Chiefs and the Chargers. Brandon, outside of the obvious Atlanta, Dallas, and we're going to be talking about plenty of those players, is there any of these games that jumps out at you? Atlanta, Dallas is pretty obvious.

Let's see. I think the Chiefs Chargers, I like that one. I also like the Vikings and the Colts. that Colts defense. Me too. Both of these defenses just looked worse than I expected in week one. So we'll see if that continues. But certainly it's in at least a few places here,

I'm going to try to take some advantage of that matchup. Yeah, Vikings Colts is an interesting one also because we have two legitimate workhorse running backs in it too with Dalvin Cook and now Jonathan Taylor looking like a guy who is going to be a workhorse for indie with Marlon Mack out for the season. So that's an interesting one. And one that, you know, I think unless people are, savvy enough to look at the over-under, one that maybe doesn't jump out at people as a potential

high-scoring game, but two defenses that did not look good in week one and two teams that have enough offensive weapons to keep things rolling. So definitely an interesting one. But of course, Dallas-Atlanta, that is the big game here. 52 and a half again is the over-under. And when we look at the quarterback position, it is just so hard for me. If I'm going to spend at this position this week in DFS contest, Brandon, it's really hard for me to get away from deck Prescott at 6,800, or Matt Ryan at 6,600. If it's not one of those guys, it's probably going to be someone cheap for me. Yeah, I mean, as a Seahawks fan, I watched that Atlanta defense a lot last week,

and I have no qualms rolling out DAC this week against that defense. I mean, Russell was 31 for 35 with three touchdown passes, over 320 passing yards, and I wouldn't be surprised if at least from a touchdown pass in the passing yard side, Dak does something very similar. Yeah, and you've got to love that. fact that Atlanta can keep this coming right back at them, right? Atlanta did that against Seattle last week. It was a game that Seattle totally controlled, but, you know, ultimately Atlanta ended up putting up into the mid-20s in point scored, and sure, they got some of those touchdowns late when

the result of that game was well in hand, but still, we think that they can come back and maybe they can stay closer with Dallas throughout and not just pile up garbage points and garbage yards and garbage numbers, and maybe this is a game that is more back and forth of a shootout rather than end of game looks like a shootout where in reality Seattle had that game totally wrapped up for the balance of the second half. A couple of big injuries on Dallas's offense with Sean Lee, or Dallas's defense, excuse me, Sean Lee and Layton Van der Leh. So that plays into the Falcons favor. I think Matt Ryan is a very strong play, and I'm going to be talking a bit about Atlanta's receivers when we get to that position. You've got Kyler Murray on here, $6,100.

dollars again Washington visiting Arizona as cardinals offense looked the part last week brand and a lot of it having to do with kailer murray and the big new edition dandre hoppins got to love what you saw from murray on the ground as well yeah i mean i really did and uh you know i know washington had eight sacks last week but i think if they're putting pressure on kiler that might not be a bad thing forcing him to run um more he had 90 yards last week and i would not put it past him to do it again this week, and I think at $6,100 bucks, I really like that value. He's down a ways in that quarterback group, and he's got a great weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, and just those wheels

just keep the floor very high for him. Yeah, we've talked a little bit about this Washington front. It is going to be a good defense. It's going to be something that offenses really have to contend with all season. They can get after the quarterback, but it also has to be mentioned that last week, when they piled up all those sacks, they did it against a

Philadelphia offense that was down three offensive line starters. and that's a little hint as to where I am going to be going with my defense at the end of the show. And I'm happy you brought up the fact that Kyler Murray is down the pricing chart. Obviously, we always expect Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes to be the two most expensive quarterback. So no surprise to see them there, but they are far more expensive than Dak Prescott, who is the fourth most expensive quarterback this week. Aaron Rogers, the third most at 6,900.

Then you've got Josh Allen at 67, Matt Ryan at 66, and then you've got to go down another one, two, three, four, five. games before you find Kyla Murray at 6,100. So I do agree that that is someone who could easily play more like a $7,500 or $7,000 quarterback at a very affordable price. If we're going cheap, I'm willing to go back to Mitch Trubisky again this week. It wasn't pretty, but ultimately he got there a week ago. I really don't fear this Giants defense coming into Chicago. I think they'll be able to protect Mitch Trubisky, and I think that this is another game where he can have a good one. More of a tournament play, probably not going to be trusting him in cash game lineups, but at $5,500.

Mitch Trubisky is a fine discount option, if you ask me. You've got another NFC North quarterback that you want to talk about, price below $6,000. Yeah, well, we talked about that Vikings Colts game being a sneaky high over-under potential, and I'm going Kirk Cousins here. We saw Gardner Minshue go 19 for 20 and throw three touchdown passes against his Colts secondary. And Cousins is just, he's just reliable.

I mean, he's just kind of $2.50 and two touchdowns is sort of just the norm for him. And so I think, you know, at $5,900, he's cheaper than a lot of these guys who've already talked about. There's a little bit higher upside that maybe than what he'll have most weeks. But again, I think you're coming in just expecting $250 and two, and he might give you just a little bit more than that this week. Yeah, it's game, again, $48.5 is the over-under. And we saw that Minnesota offense really come to life in the second half against Green Bay. last week, Cousins and Adam Thielen hooking up on a few big plays down the field.

And I think you're right that $2.50 and 2, right? You're probably not going to get 350 and 3 out of Kirk Cousins most weeks, but he really usually doesn't come up shy of that floor. So you do feel good about him at that $5,900 price. Not a steal, but definitely fairly priced and gives you the flexibility to maybe go after someone like Christian McCaffrey, who again, of course, the highest price player on the board in week two. and that gives us the opportunity to transition to the running back position. There are so many guys, Brandon, that I like who are 6,000 or less at this position.

And last week, that wasn't the case. Last week I was on Josh Jacobs, which worked. I was on Joe Mixon, which didn't work. I was on Dalvin Cook, which worked. Yeah, there were a lot of guys who were in the $65 to $8,000 range who I wanted at the running back position. That is not the case this week. There are so many guys. It almost feels like Jonathan Taylor is a free square at $5,700.

Yeah, this will get corrected quickly, but not this week. It's not there yet. So, yeah, it's, you know, this is going to be lucrative back. We've seen how Philip Rivers has opened up the passing game for all the running backs, not just Naheem Hines. And one of the best offensive lines in the league. So, yeah, Jonathan Taylor, he's a top 12 running back for me the rest of the way. And right now you get him at a much cheaper price than what that kind of cachet is. I just don't think you can possibly not have Jonathan Taylor in your lineup. So you get him pivot in the tournament, sure, fine, go away from him. But cash game, I think he has to be in there. Again, he's going to dominate the touches. And Naheem Hines is going to be involved, of course, but I think we're still looking at a huge workload for Jonathan Taylor every single game, the rest of the season.

I agree with you. I think if we were drafting teams today with everything we know now, with Marlon Max injury being on the board here, I think Jonathan Taylor is likely in that late first round mix. and so he should be and he will be treated as such in DFS going forward, but he's the prices that are locked in in advance. And so Jonathan Taylor, just the $5,700 price tag. Get it while you can because next week it's going to be $1,000 more,

and it could be sitting there for the rest of the season. If I am going to go with someone high priced at this position, I lean towards Saquan Barkley. He's $8,400, so still expensive, and I don't think he should be getting a discount even after he had the ugly game last week. He's the second most expensive back on the main slate. Christian McCaffrey's at 10,000. Then you've got Ezekiel Elliott at 8,200.

Derek Henry at 7,900. Delvin Cook at 7600. I look at this Bears defense, and Eddie Goldman was the one big guy who opted out for this team. And Eddie Goldman's function on this defense was to be that big run stuffer in the middle of the line. And his absence was easily noticeable last week when Adrian Peterson piled up 93 yards on just 14 carries. I think this is a vulnerable defensive. front up the middle, and I think the Giants are going to want to do everything they can to get Sequin Barclay right in this game. It's still not my favorite way to go this week, but if I am

inclined to pay up for a running back, Sequan Barclay is going to be the direction I go. If you look at these top guys, do you find a way to get McCaffrey in there? Do you like Barclay? Do you like Zeke? Derek Henry against Jacksonville? Is there someone who jumps out at you if you are going to go in this direction? I think Zeke, it's probably if I'm spinning up. I think I have Zeke ranked number one this week against Atlanta. You know, we saw it's the highest overrunner on the board. Seattle didn't run a ton, and that's only because they were so highly efficient in the passing game. They ran way less than they normally would.

But I didn't, I mean, Grady Jarrett's tough in the middle there, but I just feel like the way this game is going to go. It's just going to be wide open. And I think there's going to be a decent amount of chunk plays for Elliott. And he's also, you know, he's also active in the passing game. So there's that as well. I agree with you on the Barclay side of things as well. It's kind of like if Adrian Peterson can run for 90 yards against these guys. You know, you would think that Seekwan Barkley can do that

and then add in a whole lot of passing game production as well. Yeah, I think we see a big bounceback performance out of Seekwon this week. A couple other backs that you have here for us, Ronald Jones at 5200, Zach Moss at 4,800. The Ronald Jones argument is one that you, me, and Jake Seeley talked about on the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast on Wednesday when we were diving into week two rankings. I think it's still worth making here, though, because it's a little bit different of the context in the DFS world.

Buccaneers could be without Chris Godwin. He is in the concussion protocol. Ronald Jones, as much as we want to sell him, he does look like the lead guy, at least for now in Tampa. Yeah, I can buy into, this is going to be Leonard Furnett eventually. But, I mean, just looking at the tape from week one, it was clear Ronald Jones was a better running back there and he was playing like a guy that was playing for his job and I don't think that we're going to maybe we'll see a little bit more Leonard Fernette but we're talking about you saw what Josh Jacobs did to this Carolina Panthers defense oh yeah last week and at 5200 bucks for Ronald Jones

if he's getting 15 plus touches I think that'll pay nice dividends yeah I think so too and you know I'm not the biggest Ronald Jones guy I've been burned by him quite a bit but it's hard to feel bad about him in 5,200. Even if you're not going to have him in your lineup, you can't say that someone is crazy for wanting him at 5200 in a game where the Buccaneers are favored by, depending on where you look at it, eight and a half, nine and a half, but comfortably more than a touchdown, a game that they certainly could have well in hand and be icing out late with that run game, have to figure that Ronald Jones would have a large hand in both getting the team to that point and then carrying them through the end of the game if it does end up playing to that script.

Some other guys who I have written down here include Miles Sanders at 6,000, David Montgomery at 5,600, J.K. Dobbins at 5100, and Melvin Gordon at 5200. I can dispose of a few of them relatively quickly. I don't love Melvin Gordon, but Philip Lindsay, not officially out, but likely going to miss this game this week, Denver against Pittsburgh. That just means Melvin Gordon's got the backfield to himself. I still don't feel great about it, but Melvin Gordon with the backfield to himself, we saw what the division of labor was in the second half last year. or the second half last week between him and Royce Freeman after Philip Lindsay suffered that toe injury. I feel pretty comfortable with that. David Montgomery, 13 carries on 64 yards a week ago in the Bears win over to the Lions. This Giants defense really doesn't scare you. We saw Benny Snell pile up 113 yards on 19 carries, so I think David Montgomery is a nice play at 5600. The one who I do want to talk about is Miles Sanders. And maybe that's a little bit of a surprise that I'd be comfortable going up to 6,000 on him in his first game. of the season, but we know what this team said about him all summer long. This is not going to be a committee of any sort. That Doug Peterson has been a committee guy in the past because he had to be,

because he didn't have someone like Miles Sanders. Now he does have someone like Miles Sanders in his second year in the league and that he was going to be a true workhorse. People beating that drum most loudly were our two Eagles beatwriters, Zach Berman and Boe Wolf. They said, you watch this in camp, you watch everything that the Eagles are doing, you listen to everything they're saying, and this is not a mirage, he is going to be a workhorse. And even with this being his first game back, the fact that he has been practicing in full since Tuesday tells me there are no restrictions on what he is going to be able to do. So $6,000 is a little expensive. I am willing to roll the dice on that because I also think that maybe a lot of people are going to stay away from him.

Miles Sanders, I would like to see it a couple hundred dollars cheaper, but still someone who I am comfortable going after this week. Is that crazy to buy in on him right away? Do you want to see him for a week before you feel comfortable with him here? Well, this is probably the cheapest you'll get him, right? You know, he's a guy that was the top consensus top 10 running back and it's not like Boston Scott went out and did anything with his opportunity. So you're right. I really feel like, you know, he has an opportunity to come back and be the fully featured guy. And, you know, the Rams against Ezekiel Elliott, that was mixed results there. But, you know, you should hopefully get Lane Johnson him back on an offensive line, and I think that'll help things out an awful lot. So Miles

Sanders is typically going to be more expensive than this, and this is kind of the opportunity. As you mentioned, the fact that he's practicing in full makes it just, you know, it eases your concerns a lot because that way you don't have to carry any kind of the, oh, what kind of a playing time? Is there a limit playing time coming up this weekend, or is he even going to play? That's all out the door. All right, let's move over to the wide receiver position. Again, Falcons and Cowboys. They are going to be very popular this week and with good reason. I'm not shying away from them. The one guy that you wrote down out of the group of Falcons and Cowboys is Michael Gallup. Is he your favorite guy of this group when you factor in price or do you just want to talk about him?

Are you taking him at 5,600 rather than Julio Jones at 7,400? Is that the decision you're making? Yeah, well, you know, we saw the questionable pass interference penalty, you know, that was called on Gallup. And that could have been a whole different game in terms of, you know, value and points put on the board for him last week. But he's a big playmaker. He's a guy that, you know, make contested catches on the sideline. And this is a game where we think it's going to be a shootout. It's just a way to get in on the Dallas receivers cheaper than Amari Cooper. I like you have C.D. Lam written down at 4,700.

I like that a lot too. You look at Tyler at Tyler Lockett last week. He had over 90 some yards in the slot. He was open all the time in that game. And so, you know, C.D. Lamb running the slot in Dallas. And it looks like that should be open for him as well. I just, I would want some action on this. I'm just thinking that Lamb and Gallup have, you know,

nearly as much upside as Amari Cooper at much cheaper prices. Yeah, CD Lamb is going to be, I think, 100% for me, 100% owned. I just absolutely love this this week, $4,700. You mentioned what Tyler Lockett did against this same defense a week ago. And more likely than not, I'm going to have two receivers at least from this game. So Lamb, Ridley.

I think you can even get three guys. You can go Lamb, Ridley, and Julio Jones and really just stack the two big guys for Atlanta. I think maybe you can get Russell Gage in there if you want to go the opposite route and stack two guys from Dallas and go with the cheap option from the Falcons. There are just so many different builds with this team

with these two teams, both having three fantasy relevant wide receivers. It's like impossible to get away from this passing game. My favorite pairing is Ridley and Lamb. My favorite trio adds Julio Jones to that mix. And it's a trio that I am not going to be afraid of because I really do buy this game playing two type and being the shootout that we expected to be, especially through the air. So I really want a lot of exposure to Atlanta and Dallas's passing game. That's a great way to find that pairing those two or three receivers with one of the two quarterbacks in this game. Manuel Sanders, going to be a popular guy, of course, with Michael Thomas out this week in

game or in contests that include the Monday nighter. You've got Emmanuel Sanders in here. $5,800 is the price on him. And again, a guy we talked about on the Wednesday episode of this show. We were looking at week two rankings, feeling bullish on what he can do as the number one receiver with Drew Brees. Yeah, and I think he's 32nd in terms of price this week on draft. And he's like 24 or 25 on my rankings list.

So I saw the discrepancy there. I think that, you know, now that Michael Thomas is out, he fits well with Drew Breeze and what Drew Breeze has done the past few years, which is just, you know, very close to the line of scrimmage, quick hitters, short and intermediate range. He's just been pilfering that area of the field for the last couple of years. And I can easily see Sanders stepping up and filling that role in lieu of Thomas being there. Yeah. If you missed our Wednesday episode, be sure to check it out.

First of all, it's just a good episode, I think, where you had a lot of fun talking week two rankings. Secondly, Brandon and Jake got into it over a little CD-Lam, Treycone Smith bet. So definitely going to want to check that out with Brandon on CD-Lam and Jake, the lone person on a Treyquan-Smith. He'll definitely tell you. Treyquan's not that expensive, but neither one of us wanted to put him on our short list this week. No, absolutely no. And Jake will for sure tell you he's the only person on Treyquan-Smith this week. it yesterday on the Thursday edition of this show. But look, it's going to be unbearable.

Oh, I know. If Treyquan goes off this week. We have to be cheering against. No offense, Treyquine. If you're somehow listening to this, I'm sure you're a very nice guy, but we have to root against you this week because Jake is just going to be completely unbearable if you have a good game. We both have a Tampa Bay Buccaneer written down here. We're obviously thinking along the same lines. Chris Gottwin in Concussion Protocol. The fact that he went into the protocol on Wednesday does suggest that there is a good chance he misses this game against the Panthers. I've got the big star, the high-price guy, Mike Evans is 6,400. You've got Scottie Miller at 4,100.

Mike Evans speaks for himself. Why don't you speak on behalf of Scottie Miller? Well, just to say, I mean, I think Mike Evans is nicely prized because I haven't had him as a top 10 guy before Godwin was kind of sort of ruled out. And I love that Bruce Ariens said he felt bad that he didn't get him double-digit touches, like our double-digit targets. And I mean, who doesn't love to hear that? So Scotty Miller had a nice game last week, and it's just simply with Godwin out. It's a guy, you know, if you think back to all the, you know, there's always been a grease man for Tom Brady that he likes to turn to. And so while Mike Evans is the big play guy and, you know, $6,400 is not too much for him.

If you just need to kind of round out your roster with someone some upside because you've spent elsewhere. I mean, Scotty Miller at $4,100 with Chris Godwin out, you know, could be another six-catch 70-plus yardage day and maybe he sneaks a touchdown in. Yeah, right, even with the work that Chris Godwin got last week and Mike Evans wasn't a total nothing a week ago. He still saw Scotty Miller get to five grabs and 73 yards a week ago. So have to imagine he would be even more involved if Chris Godwin does indeed miss this game on Sunday. Let's move over now to the tight end position.

Again, a very interesting spot because we saw so many of the guys who were being drafted as late end, or late end, tight end ones, high end, tight end twos all deliver for us last week. And that's where we're going shopping again here this week. Although the one guy who I like the most out of this group, Brandon, is someone who was a little ahead of that group of guys in draft season. And it's Tyler Higbee at $4,700. Last week, four targets, three catches, 40 yards, Gerald Everett, dealing with a little bit of a back injury. And I think that way they get more looks. I think they put together a concerted effort to get more balls thrown in Tyler Higbee's way.

He's a game changer for this team. He really adds an element alongside Cooper Cup and Robert Woods. And at $4,700, I just feel a little bit better about him than guys I do like, like T.J. Hawkinson, but he's at 5,200. Dallas Goddard, he's at 5,000. I like those guys, but if I can save a couple hundred bucks and get someone like Tyler Higby, who I think has to be a little bit more involved in the Rams offense this week and than he was last week,

I feel pretty good about that. Rams came away with the win in that game, but the offense didn't look great. They only put up 20 points on the board against the Dallas defense that suffered a couple of big injuries in the middle of the game. So I think we see a little bit more Tyler Higby this week. He's my favorite tight end.

When you're turning to a default tight end, who's the first guy you look to here? Well, first of all, I like, I like Higbee, and I wasn't, you know, I wasn't a big Higbee guy coming into the air. I was down on him more than the industry. But then, you know, just looking at my rankings, I had Tyler Higby fifth this week, and he's outside the top 10 in value. But I agree.

I mean, with Gerald Everett being a little bit banged up, and you look at Logan Thomas, getting eight targets against his defense last week, finding the end zone going over 40 yards. It's easy to kind of like Tyler Higby when you start throwing all those things together. But I wanted to throw out Jared Cook, who's seven. in value at the tied-end position this week. And I know he's kind of this guy that our colleague Jake Sealy likes to rip on for being completely inconsistent and unpredictable. And when you want to like Jared Cook, he'll leave you hanging.

I just decided to go back and look at his last 11 games. He's been a top 12 tight end in 10 of those games. He's one that he wasn't. He was number 14. And in nine of those games, he's been top eight or better. So he's kind of, I don't think Jake's realized it, but since kind of Drew Brees came back last year, he's settled in as a rock, solid, steady guy. And now you have Michael Thomas out in the game against the Raiders, who in my history of playing fantasy football have, I believe, for almost that whole time, been just very generous to the tight-end position since almost the dawn of man. So I like Gerald Cook to set up this week.

You know you're going to have to bring that up on our next episode with Jake, right? On Monday, you're going to have to bring that up. He's maybe been the most consistent tight end over like the last 11 games. The model of consistency, Jared Cook. Got to love that. Let's fly through defense and special teams here really quickly. I'll give you mine and then you can give me yours and you can comment on mine if you care to. I want to pick on this Philadelphia offense right now and I think that there are still plenty of good skill players in it.

When you're looking for a fantasy defense, you're not saying let's get a, a shutout, right? You've got to be realistic about where things are going. So I don't expect the Rams to totally shut them down. But when you look at what the Rams do up front defensively, led by Aaron Donald, and you look at that Eagles offensive line and the way it played last week against Washington, I think we could see a repeat performance, or at least something that approximates a repeat performance of what Washington did a week ago. So I really like the Rams that are 2800, certainly not cost prohibitive. Eagles could be getting Lane Johnson back this week, and obviously that would be a huge addition.

you're still going to be down to starting offensive linemen really for this team for the entire season. So I think the Rams can take advantage, get themselves a couple of sacks, get themselves a couple of turnovers. And at $2,800, I'm more than happy with that, even if they end up giving up 20 or 24 points. Yeah, at that price, I think it's worthwhile checking to see if Philadelphia is still a sieve on the offensive line. Because you're talking about, you know, they're in, at least in the neighborhood with the Washington football team in terms of talent up front. So, and they have the best player on the defensive side in the NFL and right and squarely in the middle of that. So I like that.

I also like the Cardinals at 3,000. They're hosting the Washington football team. They got three sacks last week. I just like they're a team that has a lot of speed. It can put pressure on the quarterback. And they also have playmakers in the secondary guys like Buda Baker and Patrick Peterson that can make plays and create turnover. So we didn't see it last week.

and we didn't see Dwayne Haskins make a turnover last week. I feel like maybe combining those two, there's a little bit of borrowed time effect here that maybe we'll get some turnovers in this one. All right, Brandon, that's it. You nailed it. You nailed it. You're sitting in for Derek Van Riper,

who's out this weekend, then boom, absolutely crushed it on this fantasy portion of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show for a Friday. Thanks for sitting in. Thanks for joining us, man. It was fun. Yeah, it was mostly painless.

All right. we will get on to our gambling portion of this show with Vic Tafer in just a second, but first we've got a word from Ernest. Now is the time to get your student loan payments under control. You could be saving by refinancing your student loans with earnest. If you've been making the same monthly payment on your student loans for the last couple of years, odds are you could reduce your payment and save by refinancing with earnest. Even if you've refinanced before with today's low rate environment,

most people can save by refinancing again. There is no origination fee with earnest, no other fees with earn. Ernest and the internet loves Ernest customer service. They're rated 9.4 out of 10 on Trust Pilot. Right now you can get a $100 cash bonus when you refinance a student loan at earnest.com slash throwback. Once again, a $100 cash bonus when you refy your student loan at earnest.com slash throwback. Not available in all states.

Terms and conditions apply. Visit earnest.com slash licenses for a full list of licensed states. This is the Athletics. Shield Capadia here to tell you about Liquid IV. Nobody likes to feel dehydrated. Maybe you get a little bit of a headache, dry mouth. You just don't feel like yourself. But believe it or not, dehydration still occurs daily in three out of four people.

With liquid IV, you have the fastest, most efficient way to stay hydrated. Each serving helps you get as much hydration as two to three bottles of water. Maybe you use it after a really intense workout. Maybe you went out socially distanced with friends and had a couple extra beers the night before. That's where liquid IV comes in. It is healthier than those sugary sports drinks. no artificial flavors or preservatives and less sugar than an apple. Plus it contains five essential vitamins, more vitamin C than an orange, and as much potassium as a banana.

And Liquid IV is on a mission to change the world. Liquid IV is donating 3.7 million servings in response to COVID-19. Products are being donated to hospitals, first responders, food banks, veterans, and active military. Liquid IV is available nationwide at Costco and Target, or you can get 25% off when you go to Liquidiv.com and use code athletic at checkout. That's 25% off anything you order when you use promo code athletic at Liquidiv.com. Get better hydration today at Liquidiv.com promo code athletic. All right.

We move on to part two of this Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and Athletic Football Show. We are going to move on to a little bit of gambling talking to do that. We bring on Vic Taver. Vic, of course, one of our two Las Vegas Raiders beatwriters. Vic, how you doing today? Doing good, doing good. How are you doing? I'm good, man. Got off to a decent start last week, so we do this now that we have results in the books

and we'll have results in the books. We will take a look back at how we did the previous week. I went three, one, and one a week ago. Wins on Buffalo, Arizona, and New Orleans. Cleveland Browns were my lone loss, and it was an ugly one. And remember, this is a week ago loss to. to Baltimore, not the game recently completed against Cincinnati. And then Cincinnati was the one tie.

We actually both had that game. We were on either side of it. You had the Chargers. You ended up going one three and one last week. You also had New Orleans for your win, losses on the dolphins, the Cowboys, and the New York Giants. I picked my upset pick correctly, Washington to beat Philadelphia. You had Atlanta over Seattle. So one-on-one as a group on the upset pick.

Our consensus record, 1-0, we were both. on the Saints and our head-to-head record. That's where we push. So we are 0-0-1. Let's move on to week two here. Vic. Yeah, go ahead. I was going to say, though.

I thought it was two and three because I had the charges in my Vick's picks on Wednesday night. There were minus two and a half. Then I realized when we did the show Friday, we're up to three. So I was a lot of surprised. But that's less life, man. Life and death at a half point. Exactly, right? It was all over the place that one.

There was three and a half at times, two and a half, three. when we recorded the episode, which is obviously what we'll go with, since that's where we're doing this, it was three. But I actually took that as a loss in real life because I bet it when the Bengals were plus two and a half. So I took a loss on that for real. But here in our venue, I'll take the tie. I'll take the three one and one. I'll walk away with that. Let's see how we do, though, in week two.

We are using the Vegas Insider Consensus lines as they are as we are recording. So that's where we stand. Look at the Sunday early games. First game on the slate. Eagles, a pick-a-m at home against the Rams over under on this one is 46. And you have a pick in this one. One of your top five picks, the Philadelphia Eagles. Maybe my top pick of the week.

Watching that Rams game last week, I was surprised at the consensus after the game was most folks felt the Rams look great. And to me, I watched the Cowboys. That's the game I should have won. They made some really bad coaching mistakes. and I was surprised that the public reaction to that game. I think the Eagles are going to bounce back. They were up, what, 17-0 if they blew the game against the Washington football team.

So I think it's a great spot for the Eagles. I think they'll be able to move the ball pretty well. And so, yeah, I love the Eagles in that game. Yeah, that is definitely the more popular side. And I understand why I am not on this game at all, but it does feel like a little bit of an overreaction for this game to fall all the way down to a pick-and-spread with the Eagles at home against the Rams. And I agree with you.

Rams got a win. Can't take it away from them. their 1-0 in the standings, but it wasn't as though they dominated the Cowboys, and it felt like at times as though the Cowboys were really thoroughly handling that game. So it does feel like an overreaction to the way these two teams played in week one. The next game, Buccaneers minus nine against the Panthers. I was very tempted to go with the Panthers. I actually had my name as picking the Panthers a little bit earlier, maybe as recently as about an hour ago, but I just can't get all the way there. It feels even without Chris Godwin, which looks

like is going to be the case for Tampa. He is in concussion protocol and didn't go into the protocol until Wednesday. I just feel like this is going to be a tough game for Carolina. Tampa Bay's run defense was among the best in the league last year. They showed up again last week limiting Alvin Camara and Latavius Murray on the ground. Of course, Saints got the win in that one in the cover, but it just feels like a game where too much can go wrong for Carolina. And on the other side, feels like too much to lay. I really don't want to be touching this game. If I were inclined to go one way or the other, I would go with Carolina nine points. A lot of points to be catching, but it's just one that I don't have a super strong

feel on. Did you consider this one at all, Vic? Yeah, I was the other side. I like the Brady to bounce back. All these people talking about Tom Brady's done. He's washed up and like you always do. But I like him to bounce back this week, but like he said, it's too many points. I thought nine was too big a number to lay. So I also didn't go either way. Well, the next game on the sheet is one where you are going to be going and making a pick, and that is the Steelers minus seven at home against the Denver Broncos. 40 and a half is the over-under. This is another one that I considered strongly had I went with it.

We would have been on the same side. You, however, are strong enough to back the Denver Broncos. Yeah, maybe it's me. I had the same reaction to that Rams game to this one. I watched it. Everyone's saying, oh, the Steelers are incredible, Big Ben's back. The defense is awesome. but the Giants win that game for most of the game.

They had 19-play drive. They got zero points out of it. They score on that drive. They'd probably cover, and actually had a chance probably even make a run at the game itself. So I like the Broncos, I think, are a better team than Giants, so I have to be able to move the ball. I mean, obviously, if the Steelers sell out against the run again,

Broncos should be able to pass for some yards. So I like the Broncos to stay close, and I didn't quite go to the upset, but I think it'll be that close with a chance to win the game at some point. I am with you here. I just couldn't get all the way around to it. We'll see what happens with courts.

Sutton. I am not picking it right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if I ultimately do end up throwing some money on the Denver Broncos. I really do think that this is a week one over reaction and totally with you. You see a 26-16 win for the Steelers in week one against the Giants. And if you didn't watch the game, it's comfortable to assume that, oh, you know, that game basically played the script and they handled it. That was a one-score game for the entire first three quarters of it. Broncos, or Steelers did not have a two-scored lead until the fourth quarter, the 19 play drive, as you mentioned. The teams ran the same number of plays in that game.

The time of possession battle was very close. That was way closer than the 10-point difference in the final score would have you think. So I agree. I think the Steelers are a little bit overvalued, but not going to be one of my five picks here today. What is going to be one of my five picks? And I think this is going to be a very popular pick, understandably so, is the Dallas Cowboys. Cowboys are laying four and a half at home against the Atlanta Falcons. this is expected to be a very high-scoring game in over-under of 43.

I just can't see Atlanta slowing this Dallas offense down whatsoever, Vic. I think that the Cowboys, after their performance last week, going back to the drawing board after the loss to the Rams, are going to have a lot to say against this Atlanta offense, or this Atlanta defense. And I do think the Atlanta offense can't keep up a little bit with Dallas' defense. We have Sean Lee and Layton Vanderesh both out for the next six weeks, so Dallas is down two of its best defense.

offensive players and certainly Van deresh, maybe even the team's best defensive player, but it just has the feeling of a team that is clearly better than the team that is coming in to face them. And I think Dallas's offense gets cooking in a big, big way. Falcons did nothing to slow down Seattle last week. And if they couldn't slow down Russell Wilson and his passing attack, I think they're going to have a lot of trouble slowing down Dak Prescott and his passing attack. Yeah, I agree. I also have the Cowboys, one of my five. I think they'll get some pressure. I'm Matt Ryan. And like you said, offensively, they're just too good. they're going to be able to score points a lot more easily than did last week.

Yeah, it was just, it was a weird game. It was a weird performance from the Cowboys. And, you know, obviously the Rams are going to be able to do some interesting things defensively with Aaron Donald. No one who looks like that on Atlanta side of the ball. I just can't see them slowing them down. I think the Falcons are going to be losing a lot of games like 38 to 21 this season. They're going to play in a lot of games like that,

and they're going to be on the losing side of a lot of games like that. So Cowboys, we are both feeling them. I've already got three of your five picks here. I think I'm going to be taking center stage as we move on. I've still got four to go. Next game, 49ers at the Jets. 49ers are favored by seven over under of 41.5. This was probably, let me scan through and make sure before I say this.

Yeah, this was the easiest stayaway for me on this week's slate. I don't see how you bet the Jets with any sort of confidence, even though they're catching seven. 49ers, on the other hand, didn't look great in their loss to Arizona last week. be without George Kittle. They will likely be without Debo Samuel and Brandon I Yuk. I just don't think that this team without George Kittle is built to run away from anyone and win a game by seven. I think the under is a great play under 41 and a half. Other than that, I want no peace of this game. Yeah, I'm with you. I want no piece of the game or the under or anything

about it. I think my George Kittle heard of one MVP thing took a big hit last week. And like you said, without him, they're definitely a different team. So I don't have enough weapons right now to really they can comfortably stay, they should blow the Jets out. So I think it'll be a somewhat close game. They'll probably win, but I think it'll be somewhat close. Yeah, I think it's a game that stays close, but the Jets just don't have anything and talk about another team that just really dealing with a ton of injuries already.

Levy on Bell, of course, it's going to miss the next couple of games. Jameson Crowder popped up on the injury report on Thursday, and already sounds like he's going to be out for this game on Sunday. So I just don't see how you get really behind either side with any sort of confidence. Seven, just too big a number. If this were down at five and a half, I think I feel all right about the 49ers, but at seven, likely without or potentially without George Kittle. I just don't know that I can trust the 49ers to put up enough points to feel good about that one. We're also skipping the next one, Bills, minus five and a half at the Miami Dolphins.

This one has an over under of 41. If I was going to make a play in this one, I would make a play on the Bills. I want to see one more game from this team because the offense looked really good. Last week, Josh Allen did his Josh Allen thing. The surprising element of that game was that Josh Allen had 47 drops. in that one. So they were not afraid to let him throw the ball over the field in their win over the New York Jets. It's not a big step up in competition if it is even a step up in competition, but I do want to see at least one more strong performance out of this offense. One more performance where I feel good about them, you know, getting up into the high 20s and threatening 30, 31 points before I really feel comfortable about them going on the road, laying five and a half.

So I'm staying away, but I think that if I was going to go one way, it would have to be the Bills. If you were going to make a pick on this game, or do you leaning toward the Bills or the Dolphins? If I had to, I'd probably lean towards the dolphins. My thing is, Raffich Patrick is terrible about two-thirds of the time. But one-third of the time is actually good. He's actually solid. So if he's solid or good on Sunday, they probably cover the spread. I think it'll be some of the close game.

I think he has some tools around him to make some plays. But with him, he never know. So I think it's hard to really wager out. but like the home dogs are always attractive to me, and that would be one I'd probably lean towards if I had a little more faith in him. Yeah, this slate was not one that I felt very comfortable with, and I'll get into it a little bit more when I actually get to some picks that I like, but I was uncomfortable with how many favorites I liked

and how many big favorites I liked. That never, ever feels right. So I could see myself making some tweaks between now and Sunday, but for the time being, I'm going to be back in one too many favorites for my liking. up on the slate, we've got the Indianapolis Colts minus three hosting the Minnesota Vikings. Another one I thought about, but another one that you did more than just think about, you are backing the Minnesota Vikings and not only to cover the spread. Yeah, I was against the Colts all offseason.

For some reason, last week I picked them to beat the Jags, which was a horrible brain fart in my part. But the Vikings almost gave up 50 points last week. They're embarrassed. I think they'll bounce back here against, I think they're a better team than the Colts are. So I think that's, I got two things working for me. The talent plus the motivation. So I like the Vikings. You like the Vikings to go in and get a win, not just beat the three.

Upset special, five-star alarm, the whole deal. Yeah, it was, you know, an interesting performance from this Minnesota team in the second half. It seemed as though Green Bay was going to be able to totally put that one away. And Green Bay kept him at arm's length for the most part in the second half. But Minnesota did make things interesting. It wasn't a total runaway in the second half there. So maybe you take a little bit of confidence in that going forward that this Minnesota team is capable of getting up into the 30s against a good Green Bay squad. And we'll have to see Indianapolis if they can bounce back this week.

Of course, Jonathan Taylor taken over as the lead dog with Marlon Mack now out for the year because of that torn Achilles. But probably the most disappointing team in week one was this Indianapolis Colts group in that loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Next up, we've got a clash in the NFC North Packers minus six. against the Lions. 49 and a half is the over under. This is another one of those that the spread made me afraid of what my inclination was because I wanted to back the Packers, but there were so many other big favorites on the board

that I just didn't feel comfortable making the Packers one of my top five picks. That's the way I lean, but I can't quite trust the Packers in this spot. And it's all because of the fact that there are bigger spread or there are other big spreads elsewhere that I like better than this. and we know that backing big spread after big spread after big spread after big spread is not typically a very profitable thing to do. So it was more of that than what we expect to see on the field. I'll still be picking the Packers where I have to pick every game,

but I just couldn't quite get to this in my top five. Was this any part of your thought process? Yeah, I think the Lions, I mean, they collapsed in the fourth quarter last week. It should have won that game. So I think there's some value there. Plus the Packers, you know, the offense maxed out last week. So I think it is a big number.

I would lean towards the Lions, but like you, I stayed off of it. But I would definitely lean towards the Lions if that's what we were doing. Yeah, Bears also with the surprise victory on the other side of that game against the Lions.

And they are back home this week. They are five and a half point favorites against the New York Giants. This is a game that had a similar feel to me as the Panthers and the Buccaneers, where it just feels like too big a number for the Bears. and I just don't trust them, even though I don't think that the Giants are very good.

The one thing that concerns me most when I look at this from the Bears' point of view is that they gave up 93 yards rushing on 14 carries to Adrian Peterson. And they've got Sequin Barclay coming into town this week, much more spry, skillful running back at this stage of their respective careers. And with Eddie Goldman out for that team, that's the big run stopper in the middle of the Bears' defense, He opted out. He was the big opt-out for the Chicago Bears, and I think they might have trouble stopping the run this season. And you combine that with what Sequin Barclay in this run game didn't do last week looking abysmal in that loss to the Steelers. I think we see a focus on the rushing attack for New York against the Bears this week.

And I just don't trust the Bears to be able to stop it and then do enough offensively to get ahead and cover this five-and-a-half point numbers. So a pretty easy stay away for me, one that I really, really didn't think about at all. I would probably lean toward the Giants in this one, but that doesn't make me feel good, taking a team like this on the road with the defense that we're not expecting too much out of this season. Yeah, also, for me, an easy stay away. I thought the bear should win, but like you said, I mean, too much to figure out. And Chubisky, you're getting the guy from the first three quarters or the guy from the fourth quarter. Exactly.

It's a huge difference. So, yeah, I think it's too many points. And you never know which Mitch you're going to get from play to play, let alone quarter to quarter or game to game. He could throw that beautiful, perfect touchdown pass to Anthony Miller, and he could also airmail dudes for interceptions. We saw both of those happen in that game against Detroit. Last game in the early slate is an AFC South Clash

between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Titans are eight and a half point favorites. We've got an over-under of 44 on this one. And Vic, that's going to do it for you. This is your fifth pick already. you are going to be a busy man early in the day on Sunday backing the Titans, even though they're laying eight and a half here. Yeah, I'm in a clubhouse already.

I'm done. So to me, it's just, it's just my least favorite of my five picks. But the Titans, I think the defense actually, to me, really impressed me last week. I think it's going to be one of my best defenses in the league. I think the Jags, they got a nice win last week, but that may have been their max effort. So I think it's a good spot for the Titans. I think they'll be able to stop the Jags and score some points. So I think it should be.

and easy cover, but you never know. Yeah, I'm surprised the number is as big as it was when you consider what these two teams did a week ago. You have Jacksonville pulling off the upset victory against Indy. You have the Titans scuffling their way to a win over the Broncos, a two-point victory on Monday night. So it's also a short week for the Titans compared with the Jaguars. And that's really what convinced me to stay away.

I actually leaned toward the Jaguars in this, and it sounds as though AJ Brown could be out in this game for the Titans, dealing with a bone bruise to his knee. But the fact that this was still eight and a half when you consider what these two teams did a week ago had me a little bit concerned about the Jaguars. It just felt as though I thought this was going to be something like six and a half after that. And that would have seemed more right to me. And the fact that it is two points beyond where I thought it was going to be actually makes me feel worse about the Jaguars. It makes me feel like the odds makers are almost asking you to bet the Jaguars.

So that's what Stey pushes me away from this game as my top five. I would lean toward the Jaguars, however. Late games now we got here, and this is where I'm going to thrive, right? You just hand the baton off to me, or at least cross my fingers, hopefully thrive. It's definitely where I'm going to be active. We can say that for sure. First game is the Arizona Cardinals. They are minus seven at home against the Washington football team.

That minus seven, at least for the time being, comes with a minus 105. So while you're getting a little bit less juice on it, if you're going to bet the seven, could also buy it down to six and a half to get the minus 110. And that's what I like to do. I like the Cardinals in this game. I don't think they're getting enough respect after what they did last week, beating San Francisco, going into San Francisco, taking down the 49ers, the defending NFC champions.

I really think this team's taking a step forward. You know that. Anyone listening who has listened to either of our previous shows, you guys out there know that as well. I think Arizona is the big up-and-coming team in this 2020 season. Like what we saw out of the offense, no rust at all. There was no growing pains for the Kyler-Murie. DeAndre Hopkins relationship. Those two guys got off to a blazing start. DeAndre Hopkins with a monster game.

Kyle Murray also effectively had a 100-yard rushing game. He ended up losing it on the stat sheet because of a couple of kneel downs to end the game. But this is what the offense, I think Cliff Kingsbury envisioned, came to life in week one against the 49ers. And now they come home, an inferior team in Washington. The number is a little bit bigger than I want it to be. But I'm doing it again, Vic. I know you don't like him. But I'm back. in these Arizona Cardinals this week. This is definitely going into my five. No, I'm trying. I'm trying to be a believer. So if you're right and the Cardinals are really good, this should be an easy cover. So I'm with you. I picked the Cardinals, but I couldn't go heavy on them. But I like your pick, and I wish you the best of luck.

Thank you very much. I am intrigued to see what this offense does against a Washington front that looked great against Philadelphia last week. And even though Philly was down three offensive linemen, two who they're going to be down all year in Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard, you still like to see a team played a script like that, right? We always thought Washington was going to have this good front this season, good defensive front that was going to get after the quarterback. So even though it was against maybe a line that ends up being among the league trailers, you still like to see them deliver on that talent.

I'm intrigued to see how Washington's off, or how Arizona's offense, excuse me, handles that this week. Baltimore, another touchdown favorite here, Lange 7 going on the road to take on the Houston Texans and over under a 50. How about that for Houston, right? Good job winning the AFC South, Bill O'Brien. Your first two games are going to play Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Neither of us are taking this game, but did you have a lean at all in it? Yeah, I lean towards the home dog, as I usually will do. I think I think the Ray which might win every game this year, but for me, it's too many points for a road team. So I took the easy way out

to be, took the home dog. Yeah, I leaned toward the home dog as well, and that is what made it so easy for me to avoid because two things I don't want to do basically this season until I see something that gives me even the slightest shred of confidence in doing is fade the Ravens or fade the Chiefs. I just don't want to do that. Maybe when they play each other, I'll back one of the two teams, but until something happens with one of these teams, it's probably going to be back that team or stay away. So I like the Texans better because of the seven and because Deshaun Watson deserves all the credit in the world as well. And because of that, it became a very easy game for me to stay away from. Speaking of Patrick Mahomes, he will also be playing in this late window.

How about that? We've got Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Deshawn Watson, and Patrick Mahomes, all in this late window. That should be some fun quarterbacking to watch on Sunday afternoon. Mahomes and the Chiefs, eight and a half point favorites in L.A. against the Chargers, 47 and a half is the over under here. I love the Chiefs. I absolutely love the Chiefs in this game. there are a few times when the chiefs are going to be laying eight and a half or less against a team that they are head and shoulders better than where I am not going to like it. And I think all those boxes are checked in this matchup. So I will back the chiefs with a ton of confidence right inside my top five.

It's just remarkable the way this team can put points on the board. And in the blink of an eye, you're down 17 to nothing. And we saw it against Houston in week one. They can just get up and down the field. They have these big play capabilities so efficient in the red. zone. That opens up the pass rush and what they can do when they get those leads. It's just a symbiotic relationship between offense and defense. And I really like what this Chief's team is going to be able to do against the Chargers team that got a win against

Cincinnati last week, but really didn't look very pretty doing it. I think the Chiefs end up rolling in this one at L.A. They should roll. But you mentioned earlier when the Ravens and the Chiefs finally play. They're actually going to play next week. So could be a look ahead. could be a look ahead here. Maybe the Chiefs looking ahead to the Ravens game. But again, I always dread the huge road favorites. And even if the Chiefs are the best team of the league, I still can't lay eight and a half.

So I'm leaning the other way with the Chargers. But I understand why you would go with the Chiefs. Chiefs obviously are the best team of the league. So I can see why you lay the eight and a half. That's what I'm talking about. I've been so uncomfortable with all these favorites. I don't want to be backing all these favorites. And I liked the Chiefs.

I liked the Cardinals. I liked the Packers. I liked the Bills. I liked the Cowboys, and I just felt way too uncomfortable with all these favorites. But the more I thought about it, the more I couldn't get away from him. That's why I cut teams like the Bills, like the Packers, out of my thought process, because I really wanted to focus on especially those two big favorites in Arizona and Kansas City. All we've got left here, Vic, are the two primetime games.

Again, I'm going to be like at least one favorite here. That is the one on Sunday night. Seattle Seahawks minus four against the New England Patriots. We've got an over-under of 45 in this game. Look, it's a big step up in competition for Seattle. They faced what could go down as the worst defense in the league in Atlanta last week. And Russell Wilson and Company, they looked great. This week, they go up against a Patriots defense that was among the very best in the league last year

and returns a whole lot of those pieces. But I still just think that Seattle has more offensively than New England has defensively. And I'll eat some crow on Cam Newton. I was selling him. I did not think he was going to be able to run as effectively as he did earlier in his career. And if week one is any indication, I'm going to look like an idiot for thinking that he ran for 75 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. But there still wasn't a whole lot of offense outside of Cam Newton on the ground. They didn't get a ton going through the air. They didn't get much from any non-Cam Newton runner.

I just think that they are not going to be able to do enough defensively to let their offense stay in this game. So it's not necessarily my most confident pick, but it is a pick I am putting into my top five. Give me Seattle minus four at home against the Patriots. Yeah, it makes sense. I'd lean the same way. I think you mentioned Cam Newton last week. I was against the Dolphins. And again, I'm not sure you can carry it about 15 times every week.

So I'm curious what their approach will be this week. But Seattle's a better team. I thought the number should be a little bigger than it was. I think you got some value there. So I like the pick. All right, Monday Night Football. This is your team, at least the team you cover by that. the Las Vegas Raiders at home against the New Orleans Saints. Saints are still six-point favorites,

even though Raiders look good in that win over the Panthers last week. And even though the bigger thing, Saints are going to be playing this one without Michael Thomas. And that Vic is what convinces me to go with the Raiders. I think that Michael Thomas is one of the most indispensable offensive players in the league. With Drew Breeze being where he is in his career, he's just not going to be able to push it downfield as effectively as he was, when he was younger. And we've seen the proof of that over the last few years, but the saints have done such a great job putting weapons around him to take advantage of his extremely high accuracy.

Most notably, Michael Thomas, a big-bodied receiver who can fight off coverage, who gets open at a ton, who doesn't need a ton of daylight, two real and passes, one of the surest set of hands in the league and Alvin Camara. We take one of those guys off the field. I think you lose a lot of efficiency out of Drew Brie. and we saw what the Raiders offense can do. And of course, a big step up in competition for them, too. You take on Carolina in week one, you take on New Orleans in week two.

There is a gulf between those two defenses. But I think that Las Vegas's offense is good enough to at least keep this game within a touchdown against a Michael Thomas-less Saints team. I think the Saints win, but I think it's a good game. I think it's a fun game. I think it's a close game. And I think the Raiders are able to stay within a score here. So I will back the Raiders catching six at home against the Saints.

It weren't the same side, but for different reasons. For me, the Michael Thomas injury is not really that big a deal because the Raiders secondary is pretty young and untested. I think Tracon Smith could have a big game fantasy-wise, and they have enough offense of weapons there where they're going to score a lot of points. But I think the, like you said, the Raiders have a good offense. I think, for me, it's more of a backdoor cover, but I think they'll have enough points to cover the six,

though I don't sure they really be in position to try and win the game. But it's tough because it's a big opening of a brand-new stadium, but there are no fans there, so you lose the whole element. But I think it'd be a fun game, like you said. I just think the Saints are just too good offensively, even without Michael Thomas, to have much of a serious worry about this game. Yeah, do expect a big game out of Alvin Camara,

and we'll see what Emmanuel Sanders can do. He definitely can be that guy who makes a living in the short and intermediate part of the field with Drew Brees the way that Michael Thomas does week in and week out. Are you going to be there at this one? I am, I am. I'm looking forward.

It's going to be weird, but I'm looking forward to the weirdness, just the whole no fans and just kind of taking the whole thing in. So it'd be my first time watching the game. covering a game with no fans. So it's something for the books. Yeah, for sure. We will have to check in on that next week. So to wrap up, we've got for Vic this week,

Broncos, Eagles, Vikings, Titans Cowboys, and your upset pick, straight up victory. Minnesota Vikings going into Indianapolis and taking a win from the Colts. I am going with the Cowboys, so we have one consensus pick, Cardinals, Chiefs, Seahawks, and

Raiders, no head-to-head picks this week. For my upset, I'm going to go back to that game that I still could see myself getting in on this week. I think the Broncos can beat the Steelers. I know you didn't quite make it pick, and you are the one who picked it against the spread. I didn't pick it against the spread, but I just think that there are ways where that game can go very right for the Broncos, as good as Pittsburgh's defense is. I still need to see a little bit more out of that offense before I buy them as being fully back.

Should note here that on Thursday, James Connor, who sprained his ankle last week, got in a full practice. So that's a good sign for him potentially playing in this game on. Sunday. But I will go with the Broncos here. And if I do end up making that a real pick, you'll be able to catch it on Twitter. I will tweet out a screenshot trying to make that a habit here this season. Survivor, how about we spin through Survivor really quickly? To me, the big pick on the board is the Buccaneers, even though I was afraid of laying the nine. Hard to see them taking a loss with Carolina coming into town. I just think that that team's going to have a little bit of trouble getting things going against Tampa Base defense this

week. That's the most obvious pick. I think the Titans, Packers, and Chiefs can all be in the discussion too, but probably going to be lean in Tampa for me. That's a good pick. I'm going to go with the anti-Jags pick and go to the Titans. I think they're going to roll pretty easily. I think the Jags. They got their one win for a while last week. I think they'll be done for a little bit. All right. Well, there we go. As Survivor, and I did survive last week. I had two of my three on the Bills and the third on the Baltimore Ravens. So feeling good about moving on to Week 2 and Survivor. Hopefully next week we can be moving on to week three as well. That's going to do it for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Fantasy Football Show. If you are not yet a

subscriber to The Athletic, go ahead and go to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast. Go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod and get yourself a subscription for just $1 a month for Brandon. Funston and Vic Tafer. I am Michael Bellar. We will be back with you next week. Until then, have a great weekend and enjoy the games. This was the Athletic Football Show.