The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 3 DFS plays and picks against the spread

Episode Date: September 25, 2020

There are a few monster totals on the board in Week 3 (55.5 in Lions-Cardinals and Cowboys-Seahawks), and that always makes for interesting DFS and gambling weeks. Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the DFS slate, then Beller welcomes on Vic Tafur to discuss their favorite picks against the spread, on this hybrid episode of The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and The Athletic Football Show.Rundown1:33 Games to target for DFS in Week 34:00 Quarterback targets in Week 38:08 No shortage of ways to attack the running back position15:30 Stars and scrubs at wide receiver24:27 Finding bargains at tight end26:27 No obvious options at defense30:39 Week 3 picks against the spread31:10 Week 2 audit32:49 Patriots (-6.5) vs. Raiders34:15 Bills (-2.5) vs. Rams35:22 Steelers (-4) vs. Texans37:33 49ers (-4) at Giants39:43 Titans (-2.5) at Vikings41:18 Browns (-7) vs. Washington43:06 Eagles (-4.5) vs. Bengals45:16 Falcons (-3) vs. Bears47:02 Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets48:10 Chargers (-6.5) vs. Panthers49:55 Cardinals (-5.5) vs. Lions52:00 Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos53:54 Seahawks (-5) vs. Cowboys55:29 Saints (-3) vs. Packers56:30 Ravens (-3.5) vs. Chiefs57:50 Recapping our Week 3 picks58:53 Week 3 survivor picksFollow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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official partner of the NFL. This is the Athletic Football Show. Everyone and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. You know the deal here. It is our hybrid Friday show where we bring fantasy and gambling not only to our fantasy football podcast but to our Athletic Football Show. I am Michael Beller. I am joined this Friday to kick things.

off as I am every single Friday by Derek Van Riper. DVR, one game in the books, 15 games to go here in week three. How you doing? Doing really well, and I'm excited because I think despite all of the injuries that we've been dealing with in these first couple of weeks, there are actually a lot of nice value plays on the DFS front for week three. It definitely feels like there is, and let's jump right into that. First, let's start with our favorite games to target in week three.

Again, this is really just the games that we expect. to be the highest scoring. So we've got a couple of games with 55 and a half over under his at last check. That is the Lions and Cardinals and Cowboys and Seahawks. A couple of games that are off the main slate, both with overrunners north of 50. Chiefs Ravens at 54, that's the Monday night game. So probably not going to be factoring that too much into your Sunday plans. And then Packers and Saints Sunday night, 52 and a half. A few games on the regular Sunday slate. We've got Raiders Patriots, that's 47.5. Bears Falcons, also 47 and a half and Ramsbills. at 47. Derek, we know those first four games are going to be very popular in the DFS world.

To any of the other three Raiders Patriots, Bears Falcons, or Rams Bills, jump out at you as a place where you could differentiate your lineup a little bit and still see some high scoring? Yeah, I mean, I think Bears Falcons, the Bears have been probably the luckiest team in the league the first two weeks. I still have visions of DeAndre Swift dropping the game winning touchdown against the Bears in week one in my head. And, you know, you look at this team, Saquan Barclay, of course, left against them in week two with that season-ending injury. Now they draw the Falcons, a Falcons defense that can't stop anybody. And I don't think Mitchell Trubisky is a very good NFL quarterback.

You might be an average one, but the matchup here is so good that if I were playing the stream of quarterback game and a season-long league, I trust Trubisky and I trust this bear's offense going into Atlanta, even though I do think Atlanta is ultimately going to win that game. Yeah, I do too. And this Atlanta team's defense has been very bad. And all due respect, they have played Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Two quarterbacks, no one is going to confuse with Mitch Trubisky, but they've given up 78 points.

They've given up the second most yards per play, second most yards per pass attempt, second most pass yards. This is a team that has been victimized through the air. And you would think even an offense that didn't really do so hot against the New York Giants a week ago, could get things going. So I do agree. I think that game could be pretty high scoring. I actually think Rams Bills might disappoint people with an over under of 47. But the way those two teams play, I wouldn't be surprised to see things slow down just a little bit. So 47 feels like it could come under there and maybe you're a little disappointed if you invest in it in a big way. Of course,

one of the best ways to invest in Rams Bills would be to go with Josh Allen. That takes us over to the quarterback position. Josh Allen on the main slate, the third, expensive quarterback, $6,900. Ahead of him, we've got Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, who face off on Sunday, 7,300 for Russell, 7,200 for Dak. Kyler Murray, just $100 less than Josh Allen at $6,800. Do any of these high-price guys tempt you or in your default build, are you going to go cheaper? I don't think the projections are high enough on those guys to justify paying up for them

when you can get, you know, Matt Ryan at 6,600. I think even Ben Rothesberger at 6,400. He might be in a situation opposite that Rams Bills game where the over-under total for the Texan Steelers is a little bit lower than I expected. I thought it would be closer to 47. It's at 45. So I could see that game creeping up into the games-to-target section

in terms of where it actually finishes. Stafford as an underdog going up against an Arizona offense that plays high-tempo and puts a lot of points on the board. He makes a lot of sense as well. So look, if you can find the money and maybe it'll open up between now and kickoff on Sunday morning, you can always be happy with a Russell Wilson or a Dak Prescott or a Josh Allen. I just don't think you have to do it given some of the matchups for those second tier options this week. Yeah, I agree with you.

Obviously, it's very tempting to get in on Russell or Dak Prescott. If I was going to pay up at the quarterback position, that's where I would go. With the way those two offenses and those two defenses have played this season, it doesn't feel like a game that's going to disappoint us with that 55 and a half over under. I do think he can play to that script. So it's easy to be tempted by the siren song of one of those two quarterbacks. But you look at some of the guys you mentioned, and someone he didn't mention to me that jumps out. It's Tom Brady, actually, at 6,100.

This is week three, but this is going to be the first game he plays with a fully 100% Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. So I think there's reason to believe that we could see the best game that Brady has put up to date. obviously he didn't even have Godwin, period, in week two. And back in week one, Mike Evans was in and out of the lineup, even going into the game. He wasn't at 100% because of that hamstring injury. So now you get both of those guys fully active, fully healthy for Tom Brady in a game where the Buccaneers are favored by just about a touchdown.

That script does add up to me with Tom Brady checking in at $6,100. Again, it just comes down to as good as some of those quarterbacks are. And even if you do think they can play to that, there are so many more, there's so much more diversity of builds you can do if you go a little bit cheaper at QB rather than paying up for Russell or deck. Yeah, and the thing I keep coming back to

is I think about big field tournaments. You can make ugly stacks very easily this week. I think it's because there's a lot of quality options that you're seeing with good volume at the running back position who are pretty affordable. So you can load up, get nice receivers to go around the guys in your stack. And you could end up with even Mitch Trubisky at 5,700.

You can go cheaper. You could go down to probably even as cheap as Dwayne Haskins at 5200 and feel pretty good about the opportunity for him in a tournament setting to put up pretty big numbers because you could add a Terry McLaurin, Stephen Sims, if he's out there, you know, as the slot guy, has been playing a ton of snaps. He makes sense as a second piece there in that stack, and maybe you go a little bit chalky with Logan Thomas at tight end

and run it back with OBJ. and then fill in with studs around that, and you're going to have a really nice low-owned quarterback, a low-owned second receiver, and you have this chance of possibly having a lineup that just goes off. Yeah, there are definitely some intriguing team versus team stacks, Bears, Falcons. Fits right in there, too, right?

I mean, you would have to pay up for Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones, and Julio, of course, has injury concerns of his own. But if you do go Mitch Allen Robinson and Calvin Ridley, you could be looking at a pretty lucrative trio of guys playing in the same game, playing off one another. That still lets you build some studs in around it, especially at the running back position. And let's get over to that running back position here, DVR. We've got some high-priced guys, of course, Ezekiel Elliott, now the highest-priced guy on the main slate with Christian McCaffrey out with his ankle injury.

He is at $8,300. Derrick Henry's at $7,800, Dalvin Cook, 76, Josh Jacobs, 73, Jonathan Taylor. We said it last week. It was going to be one week where you could still get him. in the 5,000s and that he would probably be at least $1,000 more expensive this week. Well, $1,300 more expensive this week than he was last week, checking in at $7,000. It just feel like a pretty good week. This is the position that I want to attack because I can talk myself into almost any sort of bill at running back this week.

Yeah, I mean, the top end options are a little bit underpriced compared to weeks when Christian McCaffrey and Sequel and Barclay were healthy, where you'd pay $9,000 plus to get at those guys. I mean, there's a nice break at the top end of the position. But then you also have a lot of mid-range players. The Eagles held nothing back workload-wise with Miles Sanders last week. He gets the Bengals. 6,400 is a bargain for him. And I'm not a big Kenyan Drake guy in season-long leagues.

I didn't like him as someone who was a late first, early second round pick. At 6,000 flat against the lions, the way they've been using him, that's a steal as well. So I think you can take one of Zeke or Henry or Cook or whoever you like at the top and pair them with two mid-range backs. You could even avoid the high-price backs entirely and go more balanced and kind of stay in that 6K range and build a really strong lineup this week. Because the other guy who I think is really interesting, the Seahawks came up with the Cowboys as one of the games to target. A lot of people are going to target the passing game for good reason in Seattle. They're going to do the Russell Wilson D.K. Metcalfe combo. Maybe they'll do Locket instead of Metcalf.

Maybe they'll stack all three together. I think Chris Carson is going to be a little bit underutilized, despite the fact that he's a big part of that offense. Maybe people are a little bit too spooked by the low volume in week one. To me, it looks like an outlier. So I really like Chris Carson this week at 6,600 since he's in one of those games we're targeting. And I think he's going to get plenty of work. It could easily be among the top three or four backs in fantasy points this week,

despite the fact that he's not carrying a price tag. It's quite that high. I'm willing to bet to, and you pretty much hinted at it, that he's going to be the least owned of those four principles in the Seattle offense. You look at Russell Wilson, D.K. Medcalf, Tyler Lockett, I bet all three of those guys have higher ownership rates than Chris Carson. So a good way to get involved in that game while also differentiating yourself. And Kenyon, Drake, 36 carries already this season.

So all the Chase Edmunds talk, he still does have a role in this offense, but Cliff Kingsbury making very clear he knows where his bread is buttered at the running back position, and that is with Kenyon Drake. So 6,000 in a game with the 55 and a half over under against a Lions team that has been victimized by backs in both of their games this season. David Montgomery in week one, Aaron Jones in week two, definitely feeling like a nice, nice matchup for Kenyon Drake. I look at a couple of guys who are sitting at $5,000. One is on the opposite end of that game. DeAndre Swift, just $5,000.

I think with each passing week, we're going to see his role get a little bit bigger, just a little bit bigger. He pretty much already has full ownership of the pass catching role in Detroit, and I think they're going to keep on working him in a little bit more, like sort of akin to what the Eagles did with Miles Sanders a season ago, but without the Jordan Howard type of player who was really effective for the Eagles before he suffered his season-ending injury. So I think that maybe he's going to be on sort of an accelerated Miles Sanders pass,

and even if he is going to be sharing the load, which we know he is. Both Adrian Peterson and Carriott Johnson are going to have a role for the Lions offense this week. It's just not someone who pushes him the way that Howard pushed Sanders. $5,000. You're not really asking him to be a 20-plus touch guy. And if this game plays the way we expected to play, that is way more in Swift skill set than it is in either Carri-on-Johnson's or Adrian Peterson. So I do like DeAndre Swift quite a bit.

And then this Charger situation, you know, we've talked about it a little bit. that you wanted to get into it. I think both these guys are playable this week. You've got Joshua Kelly at 5 grand, Austin Echler at 6,800, a game where the Chargers are favored by six and a half points at home against Carolina. I want to see or we know that Justin Herbert is going to be out there. I think that's good news for both of these backs, especially Austin Echler. If this were $6,800 and Tyra Taylor as the starter, I'd be out on Echler. But with Herbert as the starter, I think Echler is a nice pivot at that $6,800 price tag. If you want to go a little cheaper from, you know, Josh Jacobs are Jonathan Taylor or just maybe someone who, because of the way he's played to this point of the

season, is going to have a little bit less ownership than we would normally expect for a guy like Echler. Yeah, this backfield's tricky because he loved the matchup, but the way these two guys are used, they need heavy, heavy volume if you're going to justify putting Echler out there at that price. I think the pass catching is going to be there even if Tyrod gets the job back. Week one seems like an outlier to me. It's just too much a part of Austin Echler's skill set to know.

not throw him the ball. He's a matchup nightmare in that regard. So I'm a little less concerned about the quarterback play in future weeks maybe than you are. But I do think with Kelly, with the Chargers being favored here, this is more of a Kelly game than an Echler game, at least on paper. So I would expect people to chase Kelly a bit more than Echler, especially since we're talking about backs that people really like, Miles Sanders, who I mentioned before, Kenyon Drake being a little cheaper than Echler if you're kind of building a team in that price range. But I think the next question you get to, when you start looking at someone like Josh Kelly at 5,000, who's sharing the backfield with the Chargers, do you just want to go after someone like

Jerich McKinnon who probably shares with Jeff Wilson but shares a lot less? Or do you go after one of the other backs who's seeing a lot more work? Mike Davis is only 5,100 as he takes over for Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Yeah, the thing that worries me about McKinnon is that I think we have to assume that Jeff Wilson's going to handle goal line carries. It just feels like that's the way Kyle Shanahan's going to go. Jeff Wilson has had some success in that role previously a couple of years ago when Matt Brita was still there and he was banged up and Rahim Mostert was still there, but he was banged up and Jeff Wilson was their third running back, but also delivered in that system.

And I feel as though you have to be a little bit concerned about Jerich McKinnon. It feels like if he's going to bust a touchdown, it's going to have to be a play that he busts on the ground or something that he does through the air. And that makes it. me just a little bit concerned about him, and it's hard to say concerned at $4,900. I guess maybe the better way to say it is I would rather have paid $200 more and have Mike Davis, because it does feel as though Mike Davis is going to have total ownership of that Carolina backfield. Curtis Samuel's going to mix in a little bit, and obviously it's not just going to be, well, we have Christian McCaffrey, so we're still going to have the Christian McCaffrey role,

have at it, Mike. I think they're going to scale down that running back role in general, but still a guy who caught eight balls last week who is now going to get, we would still have to assume double-digit carries. It does seem like at 5,100 if you're going to shop in that range, he is almost a free space. Yeah, I would agree with that. All right, Derek, let's move on to the wide receiver position. I'm going to list some high-priced players.

Tell me if any of these guys jump out at you as someone who you would want in your lineup, want to pay the premium for. We've got DeAndre Hopkins 7,900, Julio Jones, 7,400. Calvin Ridley at 72, Diggs at an even 7,000. His ex-teamate, Adam Thielen, $100, $600, and then the two Buccaneers, Mike Evans, 68, and Chris Godwin, 67. Any of these guys that you look at and say, I want to build a lineup around them. You know, I think it's DeAndre Hopkins. I think he should cost more.

I think DeAndre Hopkins in this matchup should cost closer to 9,000. And even if he were at like 8,500, I'd at least be thinking about it. I think he's closer to a healthy Michael Thomas in terms of usage, floor, and ceiling on a week-to-week basis now with this move to Arizona and thinking about the way that they like to run that offense. So I think it's worth paying the premium on DeAndre Hopkins wherever possible this week. I do like the way Adam Thielen has just kind of taken a larger share of the targets in Minnesota. It was eight targets last week, even though it was only three for 31 against the Colts. He was really busy in week one as well, six for 110 and two scores against the Packers. I could see Thielen getting back on track against the Titans this week.

So if you can't quite get all the way to the top of the list at Hopkins, at least prioritize getting Adam Thielen at that $6,900 price point. 22 catches on 25 targets, 219 yards and a touchdown for DeAndre Hopkins in his first two games with Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Definitely no weird transition for him, no needy. to learn the offense speed bumps for DeAndre Hopkins. He has been exactly as advertised, exactly the guy that he was back in Houston. I really like pairing Brady with one of his receivers.

If I like Brady as much as I said I did in the quarterback section, and I do, I wasn't just making it up, then I would have to like both of these receivers. So I do look at Evans and Godwin and pairing one of them with Brady as a nice way to go. I can't sit here and say that I for sure have a huge preference for one over the other. So all things being equal, I would probably see what I could do by saving the 100, going with Godwin, and seeing if that frees something up elsewhere. It's just $100, so the chances of that being the case are unlikely. More likely than not what I'll end up doing is having multiple Brady lineups, have Evans and some and have Godwin in the others. And it does feel like, I just feel like Tampa's really going to be able to get the offense going.

Again, it can't be stressed enough that as sort of halting as the offense has looked so far this season in their first two, games, one win, one loss. They haven't had Evans and Godwin out there together. So you get those two guys. I mean, that's really the heartbeat of this offense. No disrespect to Leonard Fournette. And I think that that's going to get things going here. So I really do like both of these Buccaneers receivers. Looking down a tier or two, what other wide receivers jump at you as DFS plays for week three? I think the DJ Moore price at 6100 is baffling. He's cheaper this week than he's been the last two weeks for some reason. You'd think with Christian McCaffrey gone. They obviously can't use their running backs the same way.

And as a result, the targets could tick up even more for DJ more, plus the fact that the Panthers are yet again underdog. So volume should be there for the passing game. He's clearly the number one option in Carolina. I know Teddy Bridgewater, people that don't get excited about him, but I think he's good enough to continue generating a lot of value for us week in and week out in this passing game. I keep wondering to you, how long can Terry McLaurin stay in this price range. 5,900 is just an absolute lock. No matter what you think of Dwayne Haskins,

if you don't want to go down the Stack Washington in Big Field tournaments, look, I totally understand that. You don't have to go that far. That's an extreme strategy trying to win a massive payout against tens of thousands of other entries. You should really like Terry McLaurin in the way he's being used in Washington. He should cost probably $1,000 more than he does week in and week out.

I just don't get it. we saw what he did as a rookie on what was arguably the worst offense in the NFL the season ago. And then just last week, seven catches on 10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. This guy is so obviously the number one playmaker in Washington. There might not be a greater gap between a team's number one and number two playmaker. Off the top of my head, I really can't think of one. I mean, there is just, I mean, Antonio Gibson is this team's number two playmaker? Stephen Sims, right?

There's no one else there that really challenges Terry McClain. McLorin as a guy who needs to be getting the ball forced fed to him, who needs to be getting the ball in his hands. And so for him to be at 5,900, it's just crazy to me. I do think that we're going to be living with this price for not very much longer with him. So get it while you can because Terry McLaurin is someone who definitely deserves a little bit more respect from this draft king's price. I look even a little bit cheaper because there are a lot of good guys in that range. I think you could throw Michael Gallup at 5500 in there. I'm interested in Kenne Gawley. in his first game of the season at 6,200. But if you want to go really cheap, if you need to go

really cheap for at least one of your receivers, how about Golden Tate at 4,500? The Giants welcoming the 49ers to New York this weekend and, you know, might get ugly for the Giants, even with all those injuries for the 49ers on offense. But Golden Tate at just 4,500 in the first game for this team without both Sequin Barkley and Sterling Shepard, I just think we're going to see double-digit targets relatively easily for Golden Tate and $4,500. I mean, that is absolutely nothing. I mean, you're talking about almost a gift at $4,500 for a guy who could easily see 8, 10, 12 targets in this game.

So for one of my spots, I feel like he's almost locked in. That price just does not match up with what his expected opportunity is this weekend. Yeah, I mean, there's a few interesting names near the bottom of the price list to Nikiel Harry at 4200 really creates a lot of flexibility under your cap. if you want to go that route. How much do you trust him 18 targets now in two games? Is he the clear-cut number two pass-catching option behind Julian Edelman, at least in that group of receivers and tight ends? Yeah, I think he definitely is. And I think he's someone who we should be trusting at least for opportunity purposes. What he does with the opportunity, you know,

we'll see. I think it's still going to be a week-to-week thing with him. I think it's still a week-to-week thing with this offense as good as Cam Newton has looked, a week-to-week thing, at least for the passing game in New England. Remember Seattle, this is not the least of Boom. This is very far from the Legion of Boom. So you take nothing away from what New England did last week, Cam Newton getting up near 400 yards, but this is still, I think, a big work in progress through the air in New England. But we should trust that the opportunities are going to be there for Nikiel Harry. So yeah, I could definitely see getting on board with him at 4200. And then another guy who's probably going to see an increase in opportunities this week is KJ Hamler, right?

I mean, no, no Cortland Sutton for the rest of the season. Jerry Judy ascends to be the number one receiver in that offense. Of course, Noah Fant has had himself a couple of big games, but there's a reason why this team went after KJ Hamler in the third round, Dan, no reason not to see what they've gotten him now that he has this opportunity with Cortland Settling off the table. Yeah, you don't have to do a lot from the $3,000 price point to return value, seven targets last time out.

I mean, if he gets that again, there's a very good chance he exceeds value at that price. And I just want to real quick ask you, How much do you trust Jeff Driscoll to keep the offense running smoothly? I mean, missing a few pieces, of course, with Sutton Down for the year and Philip Lindsay dealing with the turf toe injury, but they still have Melvin Gordon, who's actually a pretty decent value at running back this week. You could take Fant, who's just over 5K at tight end, pair him with Hamler and Judy and throw Driscoll out there if you're looking for one of your big field tournament stacks like I was talking about earlier. Is Driscoll good enough to prop up the value of these guys? I think he is. I think he is in the short term. I would have want him being this team's quarterback for the rest of the season, and we know that's not going to be the case. But, you know, he didn't, Detroit's offense didn't totally fall apart when he was starting there last year. Denver's offense didn't totally fall apart after Drew Locke's shoulder injury last week. I mean, they almost came back and won that game against a really good defense in Pittsburgh. So I trust him enough. You know, I feel better about him. Right. It's like the cheaper the player you're talking about the better you feel about Jeff Driscoll. Right. $3,000. You know, full well. As much as you can get yourself excited about KJ. Hamler, there is a very real,

like, literal zero point chance for him. That's the risk you take when you put a $3,000 player into your lineup. But I think we've seen enough from Driscoll, both last year with the Lions and last week with the Broncos, to think that he's not Drew Locke, but this offense shouldn't totally go in the tank, and that gives you some buying opportunities in Denver. Let's quickly move on to the tight end position. I like Hayden Hurst this week. He had a nice game last week against Dallas. And what I like about him is that he gives you a cheap option into Atlanta's offense. You're going to have to pay up to get Julio. You're going to have to pay up to to get Calvin Ridley. You're going to have to relatively pay up to get Matt Ryan, obviously not to

a DAC or Russell Wilson price, but you're not getting him cheap either. He is firmly in that second tier of quarterback. So Hayden Hurst is a cheap way, even if you're just relative to the other tight ends, at $4,700, he is at least a below market, I think, way to get involved with an Atlanta offense that has been great this year and an Atlanta defense that has been bad this year. Again, we can't hammer this home enough, expecting Bears and Falcons to be able to put some points on the board this week. Yeah, I think the Hearst call is a good one. I know you like Dallas Goddard this week too.

He's only 4,900. This is an Eagles team that's still very banged up at wide receiver. So I think we're going to see a lot of two tight end sets from them pretty much indefinitely. I mean, Goddard's basically a receiver masquerading as a tight end, as we've said before. There's some cheap options, though, too. Logan Thomas, 17 targets now in the first two games, did score back in week one. I know he didn't turn those nine targets in week two into a great game, but when you're getting opportunities like that and you're under 4K at the tight end position, I think you're

a good play. And I think, as you mentioned before, the lack of options behind Terry McLaurin leaves the door wide open for Logan Thomas to emerge as one of the team's primary red zone options. One other guy I'll throw about there, and this is one you'll have to watch as the news comes out on Sunday is Moe Ali Cox. If Jack Doyle is unable to go again for the Colts, then Mo Ellie Cox at $30,100 becomes probably my favorite tight end. We're talking about a guy who had five grabs for 111 yards last week

and is in a game where his team is favored by at last check, 11 and a half points with the Colts at home against the Jets. So if no Jack Doyle, then Mo Alley Cox is probably going to be in 100% of my lineups here this week. Let's move it over to defense and wrap things up here. I got to be honest, Derek, I went up and down and up and down and up and down. There were just no defenses that really stood out to me. No one that was very obvious to me. That was not the case of the first two weeks.

I was able to settle on my favorite defense in the first two weeks pretty easily. This week there just wasn't anyone who grabbed me. So you know what? I circled back to the defense I liked in week one. I like Washington. We know they're going to get pressure on the quarterback. That is something this team can do week in and week out. And when in doubt, trust a team that can get pressure on the quarterback.

We've seen Baker Mayfield fail in the first. face of pressure before. I don't expect them to shut Cleveland down. Cleveland's favored by a touchdown. I think Cleveland's going to win this game. But I still think you can get to Baker-Mayfield three, four times, maybe force a turnover or two, and maybe you get lucky in one of those turnovers turns into a pick six. And that's really what we're looking for at the defense position. So I always want to trust a defense that can get after the quarterback, and I feel like Washington can do it just $3,000. That's really why I circle back to them here in week three. Yeah, I didn't see an obvious sort of stand out either. If you're looking a little cheaper, I think

The Eagles are kind of interesting. You try to pick on a rookie quarterback, even if it's a talented one that you really like long term, like Joe Burrow. I think the Eagles can get a little pressure there. They did have three sacks in week one against Dwayne Haskins. You're just hoping for a big play, essentially, if you're going cheap at defense. I think the Giants also at 2,700, you know, being at home against Nick Mullins, I don't think it's a San Francisco team that wants to throw it much, so there aren't a ton of opportunities for sacks and picks.

But it's good enough to throw those defenses out there. don't have the extra few hundred bucks to get up to a team like a Washington or an Arizona. Yeah, yeah, I agree with you there. The one thing I worry about there is just a game where San Francisco is so motivated to run that you're talking about, you know, 48 plays on both sides of the ball. And maybe you just don't even get too many opportunities, period, to make anything happen on defense. But, hey, we're always trying to find the bargains at the defense position.

You want really your other positions to be the ones that carry you. And that is going to do it for the DFS portion of this Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. DVR, going to say goodbye to you now. Have a good weekend. Yeah, hey, good luck in week three. All right, we will get on to the gambling portion with Vic Tafer in just a second. But first, talking about erectile dysfunction isn't easy.

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Vic Tafer. Vic, what's going on, man? Not much, man. How you doing? I am doing okay. I'm looking forward to week three. This was a good week. I told you before we started to record,

I'm actually going to make my decision on the fifth team that I'm picking on the fly. I've got a few teams, but I want to sort of talk it out, think it out. So I'm going to make it on the fly. But the first four that I like for this week came to me very quickly. So I'm excited to dive into that. But before that, let's look back at week two. Tough week for you, man. Hate two. I hate to say it. But one in four, you were on Denver. They nearly pulled off the upset in Pittsburgh, but still beat the spread and then losses on Minnesota, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Tennessee. Any of those that really stuck in your craw more than the others?

Nah, just as overall, the whole thing stunk. I mean, not only teams had backed looked horrible, the Vikings looked terrible, Carson Wentz looks terrible, the Eagles linebackers are terrible, so I wasn't really close, really. I was kind of knocked out early. The Cowboys came back and won out and didn't cover, but yeah, pretty much my only guy was Jeff Driscoll.

He was my only real hero on the day. Yeah, the saving grace, who would have thought Jeff Triscoll would be that guy? I went three and two. I was with you on Dallas, lost that. also lost on KC, a team that nearly lost outright despite being eight and a half point favorites against the Chargers. My wins, Arizona, Seattle, and the Las Vegas Raiders, winning outright as five and a half point dogs against the Saints on Monday night footballs. On the season, I am 6, 3 and 1.

You are 2, 7 and 1. So let's get ready. Let's turn that around, Vic. Let's do that, right? Let's turn things around here. Our consensus record is 1 and 1. Of course, we took the loss on Dallas as a duo in week two. But let's look ahead.

Let's get two week three here. Again, we are using the consensus lines from Vegas Insider as we record this, and that is Thursday afternoon, just about 5 p.m. Eastern. So things could change half point there, half point there. But as we sit on Thursday afternoon here, this is the lines we are looking at. Sunday, the early games, first game up, Patriots minus six against the Arrader. 47 and a half is the over under. You are wasting no time here, Vic, getting back on track.

Why do you like the Patriots laying the six? You know, the Raiders are 2-0, and their offense has been really good like I thought it would be, but their defense is pretty bad. I think they're averaging, what, 6.6 yards per play against. Kind of got lucky a little bit of Monday night. Drew Brees missed a lot of open receivers. I think Cam Newton is going to have a lot of time,

a lot of space to make plays on Sunday. So I can't see the Raiders staying too close. Yeah, this feels like a team. team that is just riding high too, right? So often we see a team crash after they pull off. It was a huge win. I mean, that's a big, big win for this Raiders team, beating a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Michael Thomas, without Michael Thomas. I don't care. That's a really nice win for the Raiders against the Saints in week two. And so often we see teams that do crash a little bit. This is also going to be a short week, a team in the Pacific time zone, traveling across the

country to play in the Eastern time zone, 10 a.m. Body clock time for the Raiders. After the Monday night football game. This was not a kind scheduling week to the Raiders. So I am staying away from it, but definitely see the logic here. And Cam Newton, man, I was doubting him coming into this season. I look like a fool for that. He is definitely looking the part of the former MVP, both on the ground and through the air here this season. Next game up, Bills minus two and a half at home against the Rams. 47 is the over under here. A couple of two and oh teams. And another game where we've got a West Coast team traveling east to play at 10 a.m. Body clock time. I think it's going to be a fun game. I am really interested in watching this game. I want no part of it from a gambling perspective.

If I was going to make a play on it, it would probably be under the total of 47. But I have too much respect for both of these teams and what they've done to this point of the season to feel super confident in either side. Yeah, I'm leaning Buffalo. I think it's a nice little proof of it game for them. People aren't really totally buying them even still. But I think they have a really good defense. And obviously, Josh Allen's having. MVP type start. So I like them to win this one. Yeah, I'm interested to see what Josh Allen does in this game, right? You can't take anything away from all you can do, beat the teams that are across the line

from you. But a couple of easy matchups to start the season for him against the Jets and the Dolphins. So now you get a better defense in L.A., just a better overall team and offense that can push you a little bit more. Obviously, Aaron Donald on that defense, very interested to see how Josh Allen handles this one. Next game, Pittsburgh Steelers at home. and four points against the Houston Texans. Talk about scheduling, not doing someone any favors.

Houston, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh to start the season. Two of those games coming on the road, too. Just a brutal start to the year for Houston. Despite that, we have ourselves a consensus pick here, Vic, and it is the Houston Texans. Why do you like the Texans? I think it's a good spot. I think Pittsburgh may be a little overrated.

I think they mentioned the game last year against the Broncos, and they had some trouble beating Jeff Driscoll and his boys. And previously before that, we mentioned the Giants game in week one, closer than the score indicates. So they're good, but people are kind of maybe a little too high on them. I think Texans, like you mentioned, the first two games, kind of in a possible slate. Now they get a more realistic opponent.

I think they're actually not a bad team. I will say this, though. It's funny we're both picking this game, but not have a real lot of value. I mean, we're only getting four points, just seems like we're kind of stubborn. Yeah, I would have guessed this was going to be slightly higher of a spread, but I still like it. I still think Houston is a good team, a legitimate team. Anytime you've got

Sean Watson, you're going to have to take that team seriously. And I think a lot of teams would look pretty bad if they had to start their season, going to Kansas City, and then coming home and playing Baltimore. That is just, I mean, it could be the two best teams in the NFL, right? That could easily be the AFC championship game, the winner that could easily go on to win the Super Bowl. It's just a brutal start to the season for any team, no matter what it can do offensively, defensively. So as good as Pittsburgh is, and I do believe that that's still a good team. I'm with you, man. I haven't been super impressed with what they've done. I mean, to almost give up that game that they had seemingly in hand to a backup quarterback and a team that's playing without its number one

receiver, Cortland Sutton left that game with what turned out to be the torn ACL in the middle of it. And they almost gave that game away against Jeff Driscoll and the Broncos. They weren't super impressive in week one against the Giants. So I think this is a game where these teams are a lot closer than would meet the eye on paper. And I think Houston might be the better team purely, hint, hint, for where I might be going with my upset pick. We are both on Houston plus four in Pittsburgh. Next game up on the slate, San Francisco 49ers heading to New York to take on the Giants,

just realizing how many of these games have West Coast teams going to the East Coast and kicking off at 1 p.m. Eastern time. This is another one of those 49ers are four-point favorites. We've got a 41 and a half over under on this game. And you firing again early on in the Sunday slate. You like the 49ers, not concerned about all those injuries. Nick Mullins is going to start. George Kittle, looking very questionable for this game.

Rahim Mostert won't be in there. Debo Samuel, of course, not back. So why do you still have confidence in a team that is going to be without its starting quarterback? It's starting running back. It's number one receiver. And potentially it's starting tight end, who just happens to be one of the best tight ends in the league, too. Well, one, I think I like Nick Mullins more than most people do. I think he's pretty good.

I think it'll be fine as far as stepping in and being able to run the offense. I also like the fact they stayed in New York. They played in the last week, so there's no travel element. And I guess the biggest reason is I'm not really more of an anti-Giants pick. I think, you know, Sequin Barkley going out. He's got to change a lot for Daniel Jones. I think he's been able to throw the ball a lot last year and a half. But that's against the loaded boxes, I think that'll be gone this week.

I'll give him more of an honest approach with defenses. So it'd be a lot harder on him, I think. think, and we'll see what he really is about. So I think there's enough players left in the Niners will cover this game pretty easily. Yeah, the Giants are going to be a totally different look this week. You have no Sequin Barkley, obviously. They signed Devante Freeman,

but he's not going to be ready for this game. So you've got a backfield with Dionne Lewis, and you assume Wayne Galman is going to be active after being a healthy scratch a week ago. That's a way different look. You don't have Sterling Shepard either available to you, and this is a defense that really doesn't scare anyone. Now, they did decently against.

the Bears in the second half last week, but that is definitely not necessarily the best offense to really pat yourself on the back force. So 49ers land four at the Giants. I am staying away from this game. Just too many injuries for me to feel great about the 49ers on that offensive side of the ball. And again, as I said, my first four picks really jumped out of me. I'm still hunting for that fifth pick. Can't wait to see who it is going to be. It is not going to be anyone in this next game. We've got the Titans laying two and a half in Minnesota. 49 and a half is the over under. I'm not betting this game, Vic, but I just feel like Minnesota would be the play. It's just that, like that team is too talented. Mike Zimmer's been too proven and too good a defensive coach

for them to be this bad defensively. I would not be surprised to see Minnesota wake up and win this game this week. I don't want to put any money on that, but I do like the Vikings a little better. That's the way I lean, even though I'm not playing it. Normally I agree with you, but they look so bad last week. There was really no sign of pride at all on second half, especially. So I think Tennessee is a really good defense. I think last week was a tough spot coming off the short week. We still won against Jacksonville, but now they've got some more rest. I think the better team wins, and I think they're the better team, probably on both sides of the ball.

And no AJ Brown most likely for the Titans, that is not official yet, but he hasn't been practicing. He missed last week's game with the bone bruise. to his knee. So that could definitely be something that complicates matters for the Titans offensively. At least you would think, but Ryan Tannahill certainly looked no worse for wear last week without A.J. Brown. We have seen Corey Davis step up through the first two games of the season. Johnny Smith also looking like he could be one of the true breakout players this year. I just, man, I am, you know what? I'm tempted to put a pick on Minnesota. I just think there's too much talent on this team offensively and defensively for them to really be as bad as they have looked

the first two weeks of the season. So I'll put a pin in that. Maybe I will circle back to Minnesota as my fifth pick of the week here. But for now, let's move on to our next game. Cleveland Browns at home coming off their first win of the season against Cincinnati last week. Land a full touchdown against the Washington football team. 45 is the number here. This is one that tempts me too.

I like Cleveland. I really think that Cleveland, you know that. I mean, I've talked about Cleveland, I think pretty much every episode this season. I really think this is a team that can get things. going offensively can be the team in 2020 that a lot of people thought they were going to be in 2019. Seven feels like a lot of points for a team going up against a Washington defense that is legit. Can get after the quarterback has done so in both of its first two games of the season, has sunk a lot of draft capital into its defensive line. And that's showing very well,

most notably with the first round pick from this year, Chase Young. I'm afraid of Cleveland laying seven here. I lean Washington. It's on my radar, but not get one of my picks. Yeah, I'm with you. The Browns, I like the Browns also. They had a horrible beat last week. They got backdoor with the Bengals. And I can see a very similar fate this week. I'm not sure they can get out far enough

where they can really prevent the backdoor cover. So I'd be worried about laying seven. I would go with the Browns if I had to, but I probably will stay away. Yeah, that back door always open. The one thing, though, with Washington is, you know, we did see Antonio Gibson get a little bit more involved last week, but it feels like a team where if you can take away Terry McLaren in some

way that they really do lose their way offensively. And with a guy like Denzel Ward on Cleveland side of the ball, they are one of the teams that is equipped to find a way to take away Terry McLaren. Antonio Gibson more involved, Logan Thomas looks like he could be a nice find at the tight end position for this team. But it does feel as though you can take Terry McLaren away and really slow down this offense. So seven just feels like a big number probably going to be staying away from this one. The next one, I am not staying away from. And it includes. that other team from Ohio. The Bengals heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles this week.

Four and a half is the number. Eagles favored by four and a half points. 46 and a half is the over under. I like the Bengals. I just don't like this Eagles team. I think this is the week that people come around and see this Eagles team as just not being the contender that so many people thought they were coming in to the year.

You know, no great shakes yet from Cincinnati. I like the fact that Zach Taylor is not afraid to let Joe Burrow, excuse me, rip it, let him throw it 61 times last week. I like to see that faith and that confidence in your first round pick in basically the future of your franchise. But it could be just more issues for Philadelphia offensively this week. Of course, Jalen Rager, now on IR for that team. Alshon Jeffrey is practicing, but he's not ready to play this week.

And they welcome Lane Johnson back in week two. But now this week they say goodbye to Isaac Samalo, who is on IR and going to be out for at least the next three weeks. So again, another game for this team where they are playing down three of the players who had penciled in as starting offensive linemen to begin the year. I think Cincinnati can at least keep this one close at Philadelphia minus four and a half. That just feels like a little bit too big of a number for me. So I am throwing the Bengals on as my second pick of the week. What say you on this game?

Yeah, for me, the biggest reason to fade the Eagles is their defense. I got to watch that game last week because I had them. It was painful. of the Raiders for like 10 years. So I have like a PhD in bad landbacker play. And there was some, I mean, the Eagles landbackers were in a class that I've rarely seen before. They were so bad. So I'm not sure how you fixed that in one week.

I think Joe Burroughs is good enough to exploit that. So you want to say Carson and Watson & Bons back, it'll be enough from the win this game. But I'm with you. I like the Bengals. I think the Eagles are going to be further exposed defensively. Yeah, that's another one that I could see making an upset pick. It's not going to be the one I've basically already given away what my upset pick for the week is going to be.

But I'll call this my 1A upset pick. I do like the Bengals in this one going to Philly, taking on the Eagles. Last game of the Sunday early slate pits the Atlanta Falcons against the Chicago Bears. Atlanta minus three at home with the Bears coming to town. 47 and a half is the over-underer on this game. A lot of that is driven by Atlanta,

a team that has played a ton of offense and not very much defense through its first two games of the season. You've got a pick here. You like the road team catching the third. what makes you back to the Bears in this game? Yeah, it's more of an anti-Falcons play. I think that game last week. I mean, the Cowboys gave me every chance in that first quarter to run away with it.

They didn't. And the horrible collapse at the end and the outside kick. I just think that kind of lost lingers. I'm not sure I liked them to begin with. I think they're a little overrated offensively. And so I think the Bears are solid. Bears are not pretty, but they're solid. They're good defense.

And Chubisky's done okay so far better than people thought. So they should be able to win that game and go three and no. Ooh, you like the Bears to win it. All right, yeah. They have been probably the most fortunate two and O team in the league. Of course, week one, the DeAndre Swift drop. DeAndre Swift holds on to that ball. That's a loss for the Bears.

And then, you know, last week against the Giants, Sequin Barkley goes out in the first half. Sterling Shepard goes out. The Bears jump out to a 17-0 lead and then do absolutely nothing in the second half of that game and have to hold on for a 17-13 victory. So that's what pushes me away from this game. I just, I can't trust the Bears. bottom line. And as bad as the Falcons defense is, I pretty much don't want to get in bed with a defense this bad when it is favored, period.

So a relatively easy game for me to stay away from in Atlanta between the Bears and the Falcons. Let's flip things over to the Sunday 4 p.m. slate five games. Thank you NFL for balancing this out a little bit better than it was in week one and week two. We've got five games to look at starting at 4 p.m. the first one, Colts and Jets, Colts 11.5 point favorites at home. 44 is the line here. Just too big of a line for me. This is a pretty easy one to stay away from. I can't trust the Jets against anyone, but I don't trust the Colts with Philip Rivers being as mistake prone as he is

to win a game by 12 points. I'm staying away for you at all interested in this game. Yeah, same. I think the Lionsport moved four and a half points. So normally that would force me to go the other way. So it's hard to go with the Jets, but I would go with him here. I just think it's too many points. Yeah, I agree.

Poole where I pick every single game, I will lean toward the Jets because that's just, a lot of points. But when I only have to make five picks rather than all 16, I am not going to put my money on Sam Darnold and an offense that is still incredibly banged up. Leveon Bell remains on IR, already putting a doubtful tag on James and Crowder because of his hamstring injury. Prashad Perriman is not going to be able to play in this game. They're hoping to get him back in week five. So you're looking at a team that is going to be with Frank Gore as it's starting running back, Chris Hogan and Braxton Berrios as it's starting wide receivers. That is just not exactly a recipe for big time success. Next game up on the

board, we've got the Los Angeles Chargers, minus six and a half at home against the Carolina Panthers. Justin Herbert getting at least one more start in place of the injured Tyrod Taylor, 43 and a half over under on this game. This one too, Vic, you know, it just feels like the charges are the better team relatively comfortably, especially without Christian McCaffrey, on the field. for the Panthers, but you know exactly where I am on the Chargers, and I'm not sure six and a half is something I feel comfortable with them. Yeah, I agree with you. I think it could be a flat spot for them.

I think that was a tough loss last week this week. The Panthers, Mike Davis is not bad. Mike Dave, I mean, he's a little bit of Caffrey, but he should be okay as far as the offense being able to score some points. I think the defense has a chance of scout, you know, Herbert this week. Last week was kind of a big surprise that he played. So I think his second start would be a little harder for him than the first one was just based on that. So I think it's a good spot for the Panthers.

I mean, not to win, but they should be able to just stay close. Yeah, I lean in their direction too. And I got to say, hats off to the Chargers. I am very impressed with the way that they have played defense this season. And obviously, we expect them to be able to get after the quarterback. But you lose a guy like Derwin James before you play a game. This is a team that already was relatively thin in its back end. And so to see them play as well as they have defensively, week one against the Bengals.

And then last week, I mean, you keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 20 points. in regulation. You force Patrick Mahomes to throw the ball as many times as he did to get north of 300 yards. You'll take that every single time you go up against the Chief's offense. So all credit to Gus Bradley and the players on that defense, they have looked really good. And that's another thing that, you know, just too many factors where I don't feel confident enough in any one unit in this game to really want to play it. The next one, however, I am going to play it. Three for three, right, Vic? Why would I back off the Arizona Cardinals now after they've gone two and O to start the season? playing at home, five and a half point favorites against the Detroit Lions,

55 and a half over under. We are expecting plenty of points on the board between the Cardinals and the Lions. And I love this Cardinals team. I absolutely think that they can keep it rolling. You saw Detroit get victimized in the second half in week one against Chicago's offense. You saw Green Bay go in and roll up 42 points on the Lions in week two. I just don't see any way that this defense can slow down Kyler-Marie and company with the way that they've been playing this season,

already with a big win over San Francisco in week one. Then they counteract a very strong Washington pass rush in week two when that game going away 30 to 15. I just think that the way I felt about Arizona coming into the season that they were going to be this year's breakout team only feel stronger about it at this point of the season. So I think they win this one relatively comfortably. Almost feel a little fishy that the line isn't a tiny bit higher,

but I'll take the five and a half. Give me the Cardinals all day. Yeah, I tip my cap to both you and Kyle Murray. You're both off to good starts. I think you're right about him. It looks phenomenal. To me, I'm still not totally sold in the Cardinals. I'm not sure they're a lot better than the Lions are,

so I would probably lean towards the Lions, but I'm not going to stand in your way, and I definitely can see the Cardinals keep on rolling, so roll on Cardinals. Anytime you want to put me in a sentence with Kyler Murray, that guy will happily take it. I will gladly just say, yeah, get out of the way.

Me and Kyler, we're like, it's at two peas in a pod, right? Gotta love that, got to love that. Detroit is getting Kenny Gallaudet back this week from his hamstring injury. He has missed the team's first two games of the season, so that's a big weapon, a big chess piece back on the field for Matthew Stafford and this lion's offense, but still feel very good about the Cardinals. They could be without Christian Kirk, who has not practiced this week because of a groin injury. But even with those things on the board, give me the Arizona Cardinals.

Next game up, Tampa Bay, minus six going into Denver to take on the Broncos. 43 and a half is the over under here. Good news for Tampa Bay. First game for Tom Brady, where he will have a 100% Mike Evans and Chris Godwin available to him. Of course, Jeff Driscoll getting the start for Denver in place of an injured Drew Locke. They're obviously without Cortland Sutton for the rest of the year. They are without Philip Lindsay in this game still dealing with that turf toe injury. I usually hate taking a team that I don't necessarily love laying six on the road,

but I could see Tampa being that fifth team for me as I am still sitting here trying to make up my mind on what I want to do with it. You know, Tampa's offense gets all the attention and understandably so. Anytime you've got Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bruce Ariens calling the shots, your offense is going to be at center stage. But this defense is no joke, and it really was a very good run defense last year. So I think that's really where this could come together and push them ahead. of that sixth number. I lean toward Tampa.

I'm not quite comfortable enough to make it one of my picks. Where do you lean on this one? Yeah, I lean with the Broncos. I mean, Jeff Driscoe was one of my only friends last Sunday in the world, so he and I are going to ride together. Gotta be loyal.

But I also think, I'm not sure what Homeville Advantage is worth these days, but I think in mile high, it's worth something. I think it's a tough place to play. I think even without Sutton, the Broncos still have enough weapons offensively. We have to be able to hang around.

So I'm not saying upset, but I think there'll be a close game. Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what they get out of KJ Hamler, who's expected to play a much bigger role for the offense here this week. Obviously, Jerry Judy ascending to that de facto number one spot on the depth chart. Noah Fant has been great for this team this season. And, you know, for that matter, so is Melvin Gordon delivering exactly as advertised. You got to tip your cap to him as well.

A lot of people questioned that decision considering what they already had in Philip Lindsay. But Melvin Gordon definitely delivering for the Broncos in his first two games with the team. One more game before we turn things over to the prime. time slate. Got to love what the NFL schedulers gave us on the prime time and the marquee game in Sunday's late window. Seahawks minus five at home against the Cowboys. 56 is the over under, the highest over under on the board. And understandably so, given the way these two teams have played offense and defense this season. You are rounding out your five here with the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, I don't have the exact number in front of you, but I put it in my

pig story last night. The Cowboys have the most plays or 10 yards in the NFL, and the Seahawks have given up the most plays or 10 yards in the NFL. So I think that's a nice combination. I think the offense is just too potent. I think they'll be able to beat the Seahawks behind Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Beat the Seahawks out, right? Yeah, that's my upset pick also, a little tease for a later, but yeah, I think they'll win that game. Yeah, this is the other one that I had circled as a potential pick for me, and I like the Seahawks to win it. But But with the way their defense has been this year, straight up bad. I mean, bad in both of its first two games against Atlanta and New England.

Now you get a Dallas team that probably has the best offense that they've seen to date this year. I just don't see how they win it by more than five points. It just feels like a game where almost could be whoever has the ball last wins. And you trust Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott to make the plays down the stretch. So I think this game plays the script. I think it's a high-scoring game. And it is the one that I was closest to making. my fifth pick before we started things, but then wanted to roll the dice and see how I talked

things out. So we turn over to our nighttime game. Sunday night is New Orleans and Green Bay. Saints at home, three-point favorites, basically the three that you get automatically from being at home. So odds makers telling us they view these teams as exactly even. Michael Thomas, not for sure, but almost certain to not play in this game. Devante Adams has also missed a couple of practices this week with the hamstring injury so possible he doesn't play for me too many unknowns two very good teams very excited to watch it don't want to play it were you tempted at all we've already heard all five your picks but were you tempted at all to back either side in this game as one of your five favorites i was using the same logic you did with the viking i think the sainter is too good

they have an embarrassing loss last monday night other home i think it's a very gently nice point spread for them so i'm not sure what drew breads has left but they're good enough even if he's not up to what it usually has been in the past to win that game on Sunday. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree with you there. And I'm still back in the Saints as my Super Bowl pick. So I'm not running away and hiding from them just yet. Monday night football. Man, what a game we've got to wrap things up in week three.

Kansas City Chiefs taken to the road into Baltimore to play the Ravens. Three and a half point favorites are Baltimore in this game. 54 is the over-under. My logic in this one, Vic, pretty simple. Anytime Patrick Mahomes is getting a field goal tacked on, I want to back Patrick Mahomes. So give me the Chiefs. No knock on the Ravens whatsoever. They are just as arguably the best team in the NFL as the Chiefs are.

But if either of these guys basically gets a field goal, I want them. You could flip this. You could have this game in Kansas City with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens getting three and a half, and I would back the Ravens. I basically see these teams as even and his home field not being enough to cancel that out. So I'll take the points and take the Chiefs. That's very good logic. I like that.

I'll go with the Ravens. I think the Ravens are a better team right now. I think they defensively are ahead of the Chiefs. I think their running game is definitely elite. Lamar Jackson gets better everywhere. I mean, obviously, Lamar Jackson and Mahomes are two best quarterbacks in the league. But Lamar keeps getting better. Some of the throws made last week were ridiculous.

So I think the Ravens are going to go 16-0. So if I say that, then they should be able to win this one by more than one three and a half. I can't wait for this one. This is going to be such a great game between these two teams. None of us would be surprised if we are seeing them meet. once again this season in the AFC championship game. So let's wrap things up here. Your five are the Patriots, the Texans, 49ers, Cowboys, and Bears.

My five, I guess I got to make a pick here. First four, Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, and Chiefs. And you know what? For my fifth, I will join you on those Dallas Cowboys. So we've got a couple of consensus picks here this week, Texans and Cowboys, and then we go our separate way for our other three. You already mentioned your upset pick of the Cowboys. to win outright. I've got the Houston Texans. I just really think that, I just think of the better team.

I think they're better than Pittsburgh and that, you know, is going to be reflected in this game. I think that if they started off their schedule a little bit lighter, we wouldn't be writing the Texans off so easily. And I think the fact that we were both flummoxed by the fact that this was just a four point line, given the way that Houston has looked on paper, given the way they do look on paper versus Pittsburgh, tells you what the odds makers think. Still a lot of respect for Houston, only catching four. going into Pittsburgh with them being 0 and 2 and the Steelers being 2 and 0. So give me the Texans to win that game outright. Let's talk Survivor here really quickly.

Colts are going to be probably the most popular pick. 11.5 is their line once again at home against the hapless jets. The main reason why I like them too, Vic, is that you probably saw a lot of people lose in your pools taking the Colts in week one. So I think that they're going to be a team that maybe scares some people away. They're going to be a popular pick, but I'm not too afraid of that. Give me the Colts wherever I can take them. Who jumps out at you as a potential survivor here in week three?

Yeah, I probably go at the Browns. I think the Colts are the Browns or the two I looked at the most. So I'll go at the Browns because I'm kind of still anti-cultz. So I'm like a never one dice for those guys. I mean, I don't know the Jets. Who knows, though. Sam Donald, he's an NFL quarterback who never know. So I'll go with the Browns.

He has an NFL quarterback. That is true. We can definitely verify that. But Philip Rivers does scare me. The one thing that always scares you with a survivor pick and especially with one that is laying 11 and a half is a quarterback who is prone to mistakes. And Philip Rivers certainly has been that really over his entire career,

but even more so as he's gotten into his late 30s. But I still feel good about that. Some other teams that I would consider backing and will be backing as I diversify across my survivor portfolio, Cardinals and Chargers, two teams I also like this week for survivor purposes. We certainly hope that you like, what we've done here on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and The Athletic Football Show.

We will be back with you in this same venue one week from now to talk week four. Until then, thanks for listening. Have a great weekend for Vic Tafer and Derek Van Riper. I am Michael Beller. We'll be back with you next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.