The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 3 fantasy buy/sell/hold with a twist + Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle & more advice

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

Week 3 NFL fantasy is underway with many lineups feeling good a 1-1, ecstatic at 2-0, or freaking out at 0-2. Michael Beller and Brandon Funston bring you a little buy/sell/hold with a twist, discussing some current fantasy darlings like Christian Kirk, Antonio Gibson and more week 3 fantasy advice before kickoff on Thursday night, presented by KFC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hey everybody, what's up and welcome in to the Athletic Football Show. Little Fantasy Football Edition for you, presented by KFC, Michael Beller and Brandon Funston. We are here with you. We are looking back at week two and ahead to week three on this episode here. Brandon Funston, I feel like, you know, two weeks under our belt, we know some things. Obviously, we're working with small samples, but we're talking about a 14, week regular season in the fantasy world so kind of have to act on those small samples and i think

you know what maybe we know a thing or two as we get ready for week three yeah you know context clues are important uh my worry is that i don't i really hope that they're telling a they're telling a story that's not necessary completely set in stone at this point because there's a lot of things that i've seen so far that i want to turn around and go in the other direction so um yes it's important that we have some actual games to go off of, but I'm hoping that the whole story hasn't been told yet. We know the whole story has been told yet. We do know that there are some things that we should be acting on here. Oh, and two, you probably feel like you're behind the eight ball two and oh. You probably feel like you are sitting pretty. But no one's full fantasy story for the 2022 season has been written just yet.

Here's what we're going to do on this episode of the athletic football show, a little fantasy football spin for you. one of the easiest things to do this time of year is to say, oh yeah, player X has gotten off to a really hot start. You should sell high because this isn't possibly something he can keep doing. Or, oh, this guy who we thought was going to be awesome isn't been awesome so far. You should maybe try to buy low. Well, it's not quite that easy because literally everyone understands that thinking. Also, sometimes players do change and set themselves up for a new level. That's why we talk about breakout players.

talk about busts because things change for players. These are not just robots who you turn on and turn off. So what we're going to do here on this episode, we're going to talk about guys who have gotten off to extreme starts, whether that be good or bad, and we're going to talk about them in a buy-seller hold context. So this player now is commanding a wide receiver one price. Would you buy them at that price? Or if you have them, are you happy to have them or maybe you want to sell them at that price if that you can get for them? We're going to talk through five players. And the first guy I want to start off with. I use that wide receiver one price for it reason. It's because I think Jalen Waddle should command a wide receiver one price at this stage with what he's done to start the season.

15 catches on 24 targets, 19 of those coming in that week to win over the Ravens, 240 yards and three touchdowns. He is the wide receiver five in half PBR leagues, Funston. So Jalen Waddle, at this newly established wide receiver one price, what are you doing with him? He is a wide receiver, one, I'm holding on to it because I'm not sure, you know, unless you're, unless you know, everything is about situational, you know, if you need a running back and there's a Nick Chub being offered or one of the very best of the running back spots. Right now, the running back positions in disarray. So, um, like you could almost command just about anybody for Jalen Wado. Is this going away? 19 targets last game. Him and Tyreek both in the, are one, two and

wide receiver yards after the catch. They're both top six in air yards. You focus in on Tyree Kill. Jalen Waddle brings the same kind of skills to the equation and he burns you. You focus in on Jalen Waddle and it's vice versa. There's really not a whole lot else in this passing game. It's commanding targets like this. They've been thrown to the running backs a little bit.

Mike Keseki is getting no love whatsoever. It's not really a third wide receiver in the mix. And why not? It's easy to go. you can go deep to these guys. You can throw them the ball short and they can take it the distance. Waddle's caught a deep ball. You know, I think he has 240 plus yard touchdowns.

He's also taken one from short the distance as well. Like he can beat you in every which way that Tyree Kilkin. So look, I think you got to look at him as a top 10 wide receiver. You trade him if you're going to get absolute top end, top shelf premium position at whatever position you need. Yeah, we're in total agreement on this one. I definitely think he should be treated. as a wide receiver one. If I have him, I am not looking to trade him. If I don't have him,

I am willing to pay that wide receiver one price to go and get Jalen Waddle. As you said, context for your team is going to matter if you actually make that trade. But if someone comes to me and offers me Jalen Waddle and expects a wide receiver one price in return, I don't think they're crazy. And it's something that I'm going to consider because this guy looks awesome to start off this 2022 season. Let's talk about another wide receiver who has had a great start to the year Funston, and that is Christian Kirk. Say all you will about the contract that he signed in Jacksonville. They're treating him like their number one ride receiver. He is delivering act like a number one wide receiver. 12 grabs on 18 targets, 195 yards, a pair of touchdowns.

The wide receivers, seven in fantasy world right now. He had a hundred yard game in week one, a two touchdown game in week two. Now, I think because of the way he entered the season, you're probably looking more at like maybe a top 20 wide receiver price on, Christian Kirk. I feel the same way here, Funston. If I have him, I'm expecting to get, if I have him and I'm talking about him in a trade, I'm expecting to get top 20 receiver in return or, you know, an equivalent level price. And if I am trying to acquire him, I'm comfortable paying that because there's something going on here in Jacksonville, Funston. I'm going to have a little bit of chicken while you answer this question. I'm in on Christian Kirk. I love what we've seen. Okay. Well, I was, I was exploring Christian Kirk before this

podcast. And so he was ADP wide receiver 35 in like the final weeks leading into the season. I think where I'm targeting it now, so I looked at all the top 20 receivers in ADP at that point.

And I think I would still take any one of those top 20 receivers for Christian Kirk. I think where my vat well so I don't think he was in there. I actually think he was like wide receiver 21. Yeah, he was, Terry McLaurin was 20, and that's where I'm kind of like,

I think I would still lean McLaurin. I'm not ready to give up on him after, I think he's a better receiver. You know, I think I would still lean McLaurin, but that's about where it's at. So I think his breaking point for me is top 20. If I can get a top 20 receiver, it was called, you know, it's called a push with McLaren. If I can get a top 1980P receiver, I might be making that move to the other guy. Christian Kirk just has a history of not being able to stay healthy. He also has a history of being a little bit inconsistent.

His value right now is inflated a bit by two touchdowns. But I don't disagree with what you're saying. I think he was wide receiver 35, and I think you have to think about him, absolutely have to think about him as a top 24 wide receiver at this point. I just think that as you get into the inside the top 20, I'm still going to take those guys that have a little bit more of a history. of delivering. It sounds to me like I'm a little bit higher on him, and I would say it's for a

couple of reasons. Number one is that, unlike in years past in Arizona, I think the target floor is going to be there for him. He is very clearly the number one receiver, this offense, very clearly the number one option in the passing game. And so I think that expecting nine targets per game, which is where he's sitting through two games, is totally reasonable. And so I think that that's going to be something that will be there for him, even if the production we've seen through the first two weeks isn't accompanying that week in and week out. Number two is that I think we should expect the Doug Peterson-Tever-Lorence marriage to be pretty fruitful this year.

It's been two effective games. Neither game have they bold you over, but two pretty effective games from this Jacksonville offense. And I don't see why when you talk about this quarterback and this coach, this play caller, why we shouldn't expect that to continue to grow and get a little bit better and get a little bit more efficient through the season. So I think there's a nice foundation here for Christian Kirk to remain a top 20 receiver for this entire season. Is it going to be wide receiver 7?

Probably not. But if I can get him as like wide receiver 20 in the trade market, I'm going to take that. Yeah, you take that pitch you said right there and you say, you know what? He has one more catch than A.J. Brown, one more yard than A.J. Brown and two more touchdowns than A.J. Brown. He's coming off a big game. A.J. Brown just did nothing. Hey, how about we make that swap? There you go.

That's what I'd be doing with Christian Kirk right there. Go big or go. Or just keep him. And I think that's a great way to put it. I think that's a great way to put it. Because if someone comes to me and says, my AJ Brown for your Christian Kirk, I'm going to say,

Christian, I love you, but I'll see you later. Maybe I'll still tune into some Jacksonville games and cheer for you. But I think that it should take that. Like, if you're Christian Kirk right now, if you have him on your team right now, that's what you should be thinking

because I don't think that we're talking about a guy who's going to take a sudden downturn where this is the absolute peak of his value. I think he is going to be a very consistent fantasy starter all season long. Let's get into a running back here, Funston. How about Antonio Gibson? Now, there's a little bit of two sides to this coin here.

The first side is that he has totally dominated the touches out of Washington's backfield. 28 carries on the season. He also has 12 targets. J.D. McKissick's going to have and will continue to have a large pass catching roll, but nine catches 12 targets in 85 yards through the air for Antonio Gibson. You're very happy about that. He's got one touchdown. He's the RB 11 in half PPR leagues right now.

On the flip side, Brian Robinson, thankfully, working his way. back. He's going to be back for this Washington team. It sounds like sooner rather than later. And we know what this Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, uh, divide was going into the year. There was a reason why Antonio Gibson was going so late in fantasy draft. So you see that Brian Robinson return coming at you. If you have Antonio Gibson right now, Funston, knowing what he has done to this point, buy, sell, hold. How do you feel? Yeah, I think, you know, good first two weeks showing out well as a back end RB1, I would trade him for someone that has a little bit more of a, of less volatility.

First of all, look at the, you know, look at the production from week one to week two. A lot more rushing yards. Seven catches 72 yards in the passing game than week two, you know, rushing yards way down, the targets way down, but he gets the touchdown. So, you know, it nets out nicely, but there's volatility there. There's also volatility potentially with his role. If Brian Robinson comes back and he is fully healthy and ready to go, then we have to wonder about the narrative that we knew going into the end of the summer

where Brian Robinson had overtaken him. So I think if I can flip him for somebody that has a lot more certainty, and I'm talking, you know, I think even like an A.J. Dillon who's done well, even though he's splitting a backfield, I just know exactly who A.J. Dylan is. And it's, you know. And what he is, right? And what he is. Yeah.

And I would be willing to take a little bit less production right now from what we've seen so far. But just knowing that the guy I'm getting is going to have, most likely, that same role going forward and just not having to have that, you know, toss and turn at night wondering what's going to go on with Antonio Gibson when Brian Robinson's back. I think one of the most interesting players right now in the fantasy football world because he's had the two seasons he's had coming into this year. Productive seasons on not great offenses. He's done, I would say, well enough, right, with the opportunities he's been given so far this season. Certainly well enough. It's not like Ron Rivera sitting up and saying, oh, man. man, we got to get more out of Antonio.

I think he's done totally fine with what he's been presented this season. But you know, Brompson's coming. You know, McKissick is already there. It's a hard guy to figure out. I don't think there's a slam dunk one way or another. This is a total context-dependent player right now. Your team, the offer, whatever it's going to look like. Really think he's one of the more interesting guys,

one of the guys that we have in the fantasy world who no one can say for sure one way or the other, which way they would go, which way you should go. as you are looking at him. All right, Funston, let's get to a couple of more guys here as we are talking through Bicelhold with a twist on the athletic football show. Derek Henry, this one, Funston, is a lot of fun. 34 carries, 107 yards, one touchdown.

34 carries, you're like, Derek Henry, this is what I knew I was getting, but 107 yards for Derek Henry on those 34 carries, he's the RB 29, and this Titans team, Funston, looks like a mess. I mean, there is no shame in losing to the bills. There's a little bit of shame in losing 41 to 7 and having all the starters pulled after the third quarter.

They lose that week one game to the Giants, excuse me, a game that they frankly sort of gave away. And even if they win that game, not exactly an inspiring effort from the offense. And so Derek Henry is now tied to this substandard offense. They have not been a substandard offense the last couple of years. Obviously, you're still thinking RB1 all the way, But Funston, I mean, if I look up and down the RB1 group from before the season started,

I think I'm trading Henry for basically any of them. How about you? Yeah, the caveat here is that I'm looking at the schedule, the immediate schedule, and I'm wondering, can I wait and well-timed this after, you know, one or two really big Derek Henry performances? Because I'm with you. I think the major problem here is that Tennessee is a bad team. And we already seen them lose to the Giants. and get killed by the bills, as you mentioned.

Derek Henry has not been involved in the passing game at all. In fact, they like him. One target. Yeah, one target. Yeah, and so, and you look at the Titans' offense, they're bottom five in scrimmage plays. So they're barely, you know, they're like 55 scrimmage plays per game, which as a Seahawk fan, I understand what this means for fantasy value.

It's very depressing, you know, figuratively and literally. So, so, but I look at it. You got Vegas, you got Houston coming up, you got indie, you got the Washington Commodores. There's going to be some games in there where Derek Henry. I mean, I always do that. When I speak too fast, I say, let me tell you something. If the Titans were playing Vanderbilt, then I would say definitely hold Derek Henry. Excuse me.

Yeah, but watch out for Lino Richie and Company, though. That's a whole different story. But I think there's going to be an opportunity for you to be able to trade Derek Henry when he's shining in a lot better light. I just think that this is a bad team, and there's fundamentally going to be some issues going forward for Derek Henry where he's not going to be able to achieve the value that we've seen in recent years. Your league, your league mates, everything is always going to be different. For me, the takeaway is basically anyone who you had listed as an RB1,

Joe Mixen, Aaron Jones, Austin Eccler, you know, the list, DeAndre Swift. I'm taking any of those guys over Derek Henry right now. Naji Harris? Ooh, that is a good one. That's a challenge trade right there. That's a fun one. That's a really fun. They're both guys who were like sort of volume-based,

except Henry had this awesome track record as well. That's a fun one. I think I'm probably staying with Henry. How about you? I think I am too. I think there's the track record. I mean, I think both those teams could be really bad. And like the Titans, like so much, like Derek Henry's awesome.

But so much of him being great was also tied to them being a team that was winning, a team that was nursing leads, playing from ahead, playing against worn down defenses in the second half. Like that was also part of the formula here. And so if they're suddenly like now a 6 and 11 team, it's just not going to be as productive for Derek Henry. I mean, that's true for any running back pretty much. And we can't discount the loss of A.J. Brown as far as, you know,

that play action concern has defense's thinking. And they don't have anybody like that right now. Yeah, absolutely. I feel like someone was saying that back on the fantasy football podcast a month or so ago. But you can go back and dig through the archives. you're so inclined. One more guy to talk about here, Funston, and that is Amman Ross St. Brown. So back to the high-performing wide receiver group. Another guy who we had some good hopes for coming into the season, but I don't know if anyone expected this sort of start for him,

or frankly, for a Lions offense that has put up 71 points through two games. Amon Ross St. Brown, 17 grabs, 180 yards, three touchdowns. Also has carried the ball. A couple of times, he's the wide receiver three right now in fantasy leagues. I'm in, Funnard. Winston. I'm sticking with him here. Wide receiver one price, top 15 wide receiver price. I think maybe if I was ranking the three receivers we've talked about, I would go Waddle Amon Ra, Kirk. I think you would maybe do the same. But I think that this is totally viable. He did what he did last season. They look how they look this season. They've played two extremely high-scoring games. I don't think the lions are going to be taking their foot off the pedal. They're going to be the, you always hear it in the NBA context, right? The league pass team, the team that just plays in a bunch of super fun games, high-scoring games. the Lions of the League Pass team this season in the NFL world and that's going to be very good for Amon Ross St. Brown's bottom line. Yeah, and I hate to, you know, I hate to call out our colleague Jake Seeley. He likes to take his victory labs, but he was, you know, he was kind of like, you know, down on St. Brown a little bit because of the James Spector, because T.J. Hawkinson

and DeAndre Swift were healthy and a lot of what he did last year for St. Brown was done with those guys being hurt. But I'm a big believer in the muscle memory. You know, it's like Cooper Cup and Matt Stafford. Like, that's just something where you can just tell there is just such a comfort level. And I'm sorry. Amon Ross St. Brown is now the first receiver to go six straight games with a touchdown and at least eight catches in NFL history.

And it would almost be eight straight games except for he didn't get a touchdown in that sandwich game between the six and the eight. So it was almost eight straight. But it's just like that's kind of a tie that I think is just going to be unbroken even when Jameson Williams is in there. I'm sorry. Jared Goff is just very comfortable, has an intuitive, you know, connection with Ammon Rossi. I don't think it goes anywhere. So I'm with you. I'd probably still lean Jalen Waddle.

I think it's really close because they are doing some Debo Samuel stuff, you know, there where they are getting him involved in the running game. And I just, I love that as well. But yeah, I think we're talking about both of these guys, Jalen Waddle and Amon Ross St. Brown, as absolute wide receiver ones. So you're, if someone, if you have Amon Rae St. Brown and someone wants to trade him to you, you are,

you are demanding a wide receiver one type of price to get him. And then you can talk, but you have to start at that level. If I'm giving up Amon Rae St. Brown? Yes. I think I'm pretty much like the original top five plus the Miami receivers, and that's where I'm at, kind of. Like, you need to give me one of those guys.

Hell of a start for Amman Rae St. Brown. Hell of a start for all three of these receivers that we've talked about. The full fantasy story and any of them and all of us, not quite written for the 2022 season, but hopefully this will help steer your ship and help you write in the rest of your story in the right way. That's going to do it here for this episode of the Athletic Football Show presented by KFC.

For Brandon Bunston, I am Michael Beller. Thanks so much for listening to to us here. We'll be back with some more fantasy talk on this football show feed next week. Until then, good luck this weekend. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.