The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 4 DFS plays and picks against the spread

Episode Date: October 2, 2020

The weekend has arrived, bringing with it 14 more Week 4 games. On this episode of The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 4 DFS slate. They discuss how a flat pricing week creates to a diversity of team-building options...but still find themselves targeting some expensive backs.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 29:33). Are the Bears a good bet in Nick Foles' first start with the team? Can the Saints and Cardinals bounce back? Who finally gets their first win when the Texans and Vikings get together? We have opinions on that, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. To the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show, our Friday marriage between these two podcasts coming together for week four of the NFL season. It's Friday, October 2nd. Of course, I am Michael Beller. Joined for the first portion of this show by Derek Van Reiper. We're going to get into some DFS talk for week four. Derek, how you doing?

Doing well. I'm glad we're cruising along here into this fourth week. and I love the prices this week. It just seems like there's a ton of flexibility, and that's without getting the final injury report of the week, which always opens up a few more possibilities. Yeah, I am right there with you. A running back receiver.

It feels like you can do a lot of things there. So let's just get right to it. First, we'll start with the games to target, and Derek, the odds makers, they have adjusted to the high-scoring environment of the NFL this season. We have eight games, eight, with a total of 51.5 or higher out of 3. 15, I guess 14, 9, although the Jets and Broncos were not,

the pregame total was nowhere near 51.5, so we can include them. 15 games on the slate, including last night's game between the Jets and Broncos. Eight of them have a total of 51.5 or higher. Lions, Saints, Browns, Cowboys, Cardinals, Panthers, Vikings, Texans, Seahawks, Dolphins, Patriots Chiefs, Bill's Raiders, Falcons Packers, the Monday night game. Let me put it to you like this, Derek. Are any of those looking like ones to you that could fall short of scoring expectations?

That's the right way to ask the question, and I think the other thing we've got to do is sort of recalibrate in our heads, like what a truly high over under looks like. Yeah, like 48 is like below average or bottom half of the slate at least, which is just wild to think at this point. I think of those games, hmm, Bill's Raiders, I would have said Bill's Raiders a couple of weeks ago, but I'm becoming a believer in this Bill's offense. I loved what I saw last week against the Rams. Josh Allen looks really comfortable throwing the ball, and he's got plenty of weapons to do it, too. So, wow. I don't see a clear-cut ball short. I guess maybe Seattle, Miami, in part just because Miami is not good enough to score a lot of points.

That's the one that's most likely to go well under 54 with the dolphins being about a six-point dog. The one that scares me might surprise you, but it's Cardinals and Panthers. Obviously, we know Christian McCaffrey. Maybe. No DeAndre Hopkins. He did not practice on Thursday, so he hasn't practiced all week because of an ankle injury. If both of those guys, the two biggest playmakers, and of course, Colin Murray's in there too, but the two biggest non-quarterback playmakers that would be in this game, aren't in this game,

I think that's the one that has a little bit of concern. So that could be a game that I end up fading certainly. But these other games, so many of them, I mean, even if one or two of them don't live up to that expectation, we have good reason to believe we're going to get five, six, some number of games in that range. that end up giving us 51, 52, 58, 59 points. So what could be another very high-scoring week in the NFL? Let's get things started at the quarterback position. We have one, two, three, four, five, six guys at $7,000 or higher at quarterback,

led by Lamar Jackson at 8100. Russell Wilson is at 7,800. I think this is a decent week to spend up for quarterbacks because I think you can find some guys at running back and receiver to spend down on and it gives you a little bit more money to spend up. There just aren't that many guys necessarily who jump out at me in this discussion. I actually think if I was going to go for a $7,000-plus dollar quarterback, it would be Josh Allen after what we've seen from him through three games.

And he brings that rushing ability too. So to get that a little bit cheaper than what you're going to have to spend to get Lamar Jackson at $80,100, I think that definitely makes sense. You're getting a good projection at a very fair sort of price. I kept looking at this price list though and kept falling into the mid-tier and cheaper because I think Deshawn Watson, especially in cash games if you need that extra

thousand bucks or so is 6,600. The Vikings are allowing 8.5 yards per attempt this season that secondary is atrocious. Only the dolphins have been worse. The Vikings are tied for the second worst past defense in the league by that particular metric. I just look at this Texans team and I think they're very shootout prone,

So I think that bodes well for Watson each and every week as well. And there's no reason why he couldn't finish at the same sort of part of the curve as the 7 and $8,000 quarterbacks on the board this week, given this matchup. I just think everything lines up really well for Watson. But there's so many little wrinkles. I mean, how much do you think people are scared off by Patrick Mahomes facing the Patriots, even though they shouldn't be? Like, 7,400 of Mahomes feels cheap after what we just saw on Monday night against the radio.

Yeah, I think $7,400 Mahomes is really a great way to go. And, you know, Jake Sealy was talking about getting questions last week about, should I bench Mahomes against the Ravens because of the defense? And of course, you never bench Patrick Mahomes against anyone. It doesn't matter. And you're never, you very rarely see Patrick Mahomes at $7,400. So I do think that is a nice way to go also, even though I do favor Josh Allen just slightly if I was going to pay up for a quarterback, Patrick Mahomes.

is definitely never a bad way to go. And Bill Belichick scares us in ways that no other coach does and for good reason. But the way Patrick Mahomes is playing this season, the way that Chief's offense has been running now for the last three years, has to give you a lot of confidence that they can do it against any defense, any matchup, any coach. It really doesn't matter. I look at the cheap group of guys, Derek,

and I got to be honest, Ryan Fitzpatrick jumps out at me. $5,400. The only starters who are going to cost you less this week are Derek Carr at 5300, Daniel Jones at 5,100, and Duane Haskins at 5,000. None of those guys are even on the radar for me, but then you look at Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Seattle defense has not slowed anyone down this season. And sure, the degree of difficulty, the matchups that they have had this season,

have been pretty tough. They've faced some pretty good offenses, some good quarterbacks, Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys, Matt Ryan, and the Falcons. It hasn't necessarily been the easiest road for the Seahawks to traverse, but still they have not stopped anyone. through the air. Ryan Fitzpatrick has never met a deep ball. He hasn't wanted to throw. And he's got the weapons, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gisicki, Miles Gaskin,

emerging as a legitimate threat out of the backfield catching the ball. I think if you were inclined to pay down, you could go way down to Fits at 5400 and load up at every other position. Yeah, I think because of the pricing throughout the rest of the quarterback position, you could absolutely justify fits in a tournament setting because you're saving money, You could stack them up with Devante Parker and a couple other pass catchers in this offense and then load up on high-end talent elsewhere and hope the dolphins keep pace. There's a chance that they will, and you'd have a pretty nice combination of low-owned options once you get past Devante Parker.

I think he'll be somewhat popular. We'll talk about him in a bit. I'm just not convinced that Ryan Fitzpatrick is totally locked in and safe. If he has a bad half, does he turn this job over this week? to wait longer for that to happen. I think that's the one lingering concern I have that the Dolphins may want to make that adjustment at some point

in the reasonably near future. All right, one more guide that you've got listed in this cheap category of someone who you think could be worth playing. It's Teddy Bridgewater. Why do you look at Teddy in this group of guys? Really just trying to keep pace with Arizona. I know not having McCaffrey lowers the ceiling for the Carolina offense, but he does

still have DJ Moore. He's got that rapport building up with Robbie Anderson. We'll see how they get Curtis Samuel involved. did it. Mike Davis has been pretty capable as a pass catcher these last two weeks since McCaffrey got hurt. Bridgewater's usually cheap and a lot of times you don't see enough of a

ceiling really to go after him, but I think in this particular matchup against the Cardinals, there actually is more sealing than usual. The other guy in that price range who's kind of tempting to me is actually Drew Breeze. I know he hasn't looked like himself for the most part, but how much of that has been the absence of Michael Thomas? And thinking about this matchup against the Lions, it may not

matter if Thomas is ready to come back in week four. Yep, you're never going to see, I guess, but you probably are going to see going forward Drew Breeze down in 5800. The matchup scares me just a little bit because we've seen the Lions be able to keep pace in pretty much every game they've had this season. So it does scare me a little bit. I can see making the argument for Drew Breeze,

but it's not a play that I want to make just yet this week. However, I will say, as we turn the page over to running backs, that one of my very favorite plays on the board is, Alvin Camara, he's the most expensive running back $8,000. I gotta be honest, that feels low to me. I think he should be treated almost like Christian McCaffrey with or without Michael Thomas with the way that we've seen them use him this season. And even if you do get Michael Thomas back on the field this week,

it is going to be a Michael Thomas who hasn't played since week one. So maybe not fully yet able to be the guy we're used to seeing. Alvin Camara has done everything for this team on the ground through the air, a monster receiving game last week, a monster receiving game back in week two. And they're not afraid to use them at the goal line, as we've seen. Plenty of goal line rushes for Alvin Camara this season and really all of last season as well. This is someone who I think is maybe the best play on the board regardless of position. Yeah, I think he's going to be very popular this weekend.

That almost goes without saying for the reason you mentioned, 8,000 flat for a guy that reasonably could be 9,500. That's a bargain. And normally you don't get bargains at the top of a position list. Even if Thomas is back, I think it's a skinny enough tree for touches. He's looked really good all season long. And this is a matchup in which the Saints should be protecting a lead in the second half. So I think everything lines up really well for Alvin Kamara this weekend. There's some other interesting backs, though, and I think a lot of them are in the sub-6,000-dollar range.

Like, there's nothing wrong with Zeke at 7,800. I think you could go, Kamara and Zeke and fight. a cheap option to fill that flex spot and then stack in some of those cheap dolphins that I was talking about earlier and run with that in a tournament. You might have a nice little foundation. But I feel like the running backs that are getting more volume and expected should cost a bit more. Daryl Henderson, who you like more than I do, I think in a broader sense, is still only 5,800. The Rams are home against the Giants. If he's truly the lead back in this offense, as Sean McVeigh has recently said, that's a steal given what we expect.

that Rams offense to do to that Giants defense. 12 and a half is the line on that game, and I am with you 100%. I think I'm going to have a ton of Darrell Henderson in DFS this week. I'm surprised that the price didn't come up a little bit more. We're still not clear on whether Cam Acres is going to be able to give it a go this week, but if he does, can't imagine he'll be too heavily used. We saw last week it was really the Darrell Henderson show with Malcolm Brown mixing in a little bit.

So I think against a Giants team that it hasn't really been able to stop any running backs yet this season with a 12 and a half line in favor of the Los Angeles Rams in this game. I think we see another big performance out of Darrell Henderson. That's going to be really my default. It's almost where I start my lineups this week is by getting Alvin Camara and Darrell Henderson in there. And then I go from there. You mentioned the sub-6,000 range as being a range that you like to target this week. So let's just shout out some of the guys and their prices. And you tell me, who, you look at other than Henderson in this group. We've got, we'll include Kenyon Drake at the flat 6,000, Devin Singletary, 5,900. Then you've got Mark Ingram at 5,700. You got David Montgomery at 5,500. Carlos Hyde is at 5,300. James White, 52, Joshua Kelly, 51. Miles Gaskin, 5,000. So in that group of guys, anyone else jump out at you. Yeah, I think the players I like in that range are Mixon and David Johnson. And I think with Mixin, it's been frustrating because the efficiency hasn't been there. This Bengals offense just hasn't clicked yet. But the volume is there a week in a week out. And that's the key. We're talking about 20 touches in the first two games,

19 last week against the Eagles. If he just puts a TD on top of the volume he's been getting at that price, that's a good return. If he gets some efficiency to go with it, that's a great game. and if he finds the end zone twice, it's an absolute smash from that price point. And I think going up against Jacksonville, this is a situation where this Bengals offense can start to click a little bit. It might not all happen in one week, but Joe Mixon, sub-6,000 with the workload he's been getting, absolutely makes sense. Similar logic with David Johnson, too.

I thought David Johnson was going to do a bit more damage last week against Pittsburgh, just because I figured that game was going to be more of a back-and-forth sort of shootout. It looked okay in the first half, but just... 13 carries for 23 yards, kind of bailed himself out with that first half rushing TD. I like the way his workload should stack up in this game against Minnesota. The Vikings defense, as we've said before, is atrocious. So if you're not going after Deshawn Watson, but you want some exposure to the Houston offense, David Johnson's a really good way to get it.

You could use them as your second running back or as your flex this week. You know, someone who I mentioned in that group, who I think is a nice play in season-long leagues, but who I actually am not really interested in in DFS is Carlos Hyde. He checks in at 5,300, so the price is totally fine. There's nothing wrong with that. But I worry that Travis Homer is going to get a majority, if not all, of the passing down work for this team. And if you take that away from a running back,

and he's not someone who's going to pile up 25 carries or be someone who can break through the first and second level of the defense and pull away, which I think accurately describes Carlos Hyde, then you really need a touchdown. too to come through, even at $5,300. So I think he's actually a pretty easy fade, especially expecting that he might be popular, right? 5300, a game where the Seahawks are favored by six and a half, a good offensive environment in Seattle, not a bad matchup against Miami.

All that adds up, I think, to Carlos Hyde being relatively popular this week. And so for me, that's actually a pretty easy fade. I'm going to be staying away from Carlos Hyde. There is one guy who you and I agree on who we haven't talked about just yet, That is Nick Chubb. He is the cheapest among the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 running backs who are at least $7,000. He is exactly $7,000. No practice again on Thursday for Kareem Hunt. He is dealing with a groin injury. So, I mean, if we knew, if Draft King's pricing knew that Kareem Hunt was going to be out for this game, got to believe that we'd be talking about Nick Chub up in Alvin Kamara territory at $8,000.

But there he is sitting at $7,000. If Kareem Hunt is out, I think Nick Chubb has to be in your lineups. Yeah, he becomes an automatic play at the price and maybe even unseats Elvin Camara as the best running back play on the board because the volume would go up even further. And he gets plenty of carries anyway. We're talking about a guy that's got 41 carries the last two weeks, back-to-back 100-yard games. But you're going to add passing down opportunities on top of that in a game that should be back and forth. I think Cleveland's offense is good enough to put a lot of points on the board against the beat-up Dallas defense. You know, actually, what you said about Chub getting all those carries even with Camera or with Cream Hunt healthy is a good illustration of what I was talking about with Carlos Hyde, right? If you're not going to get passing down work, then you need to be someone like Nick Chubb for me to feel really good about you even at that $5,300 price that we have on Carlos Hyde.

Clyde Edwards, Alara is the last guy who we can mention here, $6,400 against the Patriots. I don't know if we need to go too into him, but similar to what we talked about with Patrick Mahomes, right? It feels like the Patriots' defense is getting too much respect, and the Chief's offense isn't getting enough respect when you look at these prices for these two guys. Yeah, and I mean, you look at the run defense for New England to this point. It doesn't look particularly stout. I think the Patriots are going to be more worried about containing big plays,

trying to avoid getting beat over the top by Tyreek Hill. I think it's going to open up a lot of short and intermediate routes for Clyde Edwards Halear out of the backfield. I could see his pass-catching role scaling up a bit this week as well. So definitely right there in that sweet spot, $6,400 for a guy getting plenty of carries in the Kansas City offense. That is a great price. I've seen some projections for roster rates on him right around 10, 12%. That's very reasonable.

I think you can actually play him in tournaments if that's where things appear to be going on Sunday morning. All right, Derek, let's move on to the wide receiver position here. Another position where the pricing struck me as kind of odd or maybe not odd given what we have on the board for us this week. but unconventional. Certainly not what we're used to seeing. We have DeAndre Hopkins is the most expensive receiver, $8,500. And again, he has missed the last two practices for Arizona because of his ankle injury. Then you go down $900 to find Michael Thomas next at $7,600.

And then $600 to find Tyler Lockett, the third most expensive receiver on the main slate at $7,000. Of course, we're not including the Monday night game here. So you've got guys like Devante Adams, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, all playing in that Monday night game. but still, it's just strange. It's not the sort of pricing slate that we are used to seeing, and that is actually pushing me more toward, you know, mid-tier guys, guys who are in the $5,500 to $6,500 range,

with one exception who I'll hold on to. But when you look at this wide receiver position, what most jumps out of you this week? I think it's DJ Moore at 5600. I think using the logic that we discussed with Teddy Bridgewater, especially, the Panthers had to play catch up. DJ Moore is their number one receiver, and with

Christian McCaffrey out, even though Mike Davis has been catching passes, I think that brings up the floor for DJ Moore even higher. So I love him at 5600. I think the role is really secure, the floor is good. Cash games, I think he's kind of a must

play almost at wide receiver, given the way that using him opens up a little extra money to spend up elsewhere. and I don't think it really goes wrong for him matchup-wise because they move him around enough where I don't know if he's going to catch all of Patrick Peterson throughout that matchup either. I think we'll see DJ Moore come through

with a nice 18, 20-point game with relative ease in this matchup. Yeah, DJ Moore definitely, the volume has been there for him really all season, and I don't think you can go wrong at that price, right? If the volume stays, the price absolutely is right. The one guy who I like it, who's a little bit more expensive than the other ways that I'm going this week, is Alan Robinson $6,700. We saw the breakthrough game for him last week, 10 catches, 123 yards and a touchdown, had another touchdown taken off the board on a dubious overturn.

Nick Foles in it, quarterback for the Bears, definitely brings a level of competence to that offense that has been lacking with Mitch Trubisky under center. I just think the arrow's pointing up for this whole offense, and Alan Robinson is going to be the biggest beneficiary of that. So I think $6,700 could be the cheapest that we see him at, just to give you a little bit of context here. Amari Cooper and Cooper Cup are also at $6,700. You've got D.K. Metcalfe and Stefan Diggs at 6,800, Tyreek Hill at 6,900. Right behind him, you've got Adam Feeleyn at 66 and Keenan Allen at 65.

So I really like, when you look at that entire group of guys, and we get extended out to Mike Evans at 6,400 too, really do like Alan Robinson as my favorite in that range of players. Yeah, he makes sense. I mean, the Bears' offense had a totally different look once Foles took over. They did have TDs taken off the board in that game as well. And I like that Foles is pushing the ball downfield. I know they were playing from behind,

but I think that's going to be part of their MO. And part of this team that people keep missing on is that the Bears defense is not a typical Bears defense. They're going to be in more higher scoring games than we're accustomed to. So I think the week-to-week setup, the baseline expectation for the offense as a whole, is higher by necessity for me with this team. Yeah, I think that's a good.

good point and something that Bears watchers would be able to tell you already so far this season and I think something that we will catch on to industry wide and league wide as the season goes on. I've got a few more guys who we want to talk about here. But, you know, this is a position where you can always find some bargains, right? It's a deep position. It's a position where you get six or seven opportunities. You can turn that into a really big game. That's just not possible at running back. Are there any cheap guys? I'm thinking, let's say 5,500, 5,500, somewhere in there or lower that you like a lot this week. Yeah, Moore's close to that at 5600 and Devante Parker's not far off at 5,700. I mean, I think the target volume is so safe with him and Miami's going to play catch-up with

Seattle all day. But going cheaper, I like Marvin Jones at 4,900 quite a bit now that Kenny Galdet's back because Jones doesn't see top coverage anymore. And I think that Lions offense will have have to throw it quite a bit to keep up with the Saints. It's a great setup there. I think he's probably a little more of a tournament play for me than a cash game play just because he's not a high volume guy. They do spread the ball around enough where I don't think you feel great about his role, but he has big playability. And that's what you're looking for when you're trying to hit the cheap home run at the wide receiver position. The other guy that I think is kind of interesting is Ty Wylton down at 5300 going up against the Bears. I think there's still,

something left in the tank. I think the problem is we've seen low volume these last couple of weeks, just three targets against the Jets in week three. But let's go back to that opener against the Jags. Nine targets in the opener. Four for 53, disappointing in part because of the play of Phillip Rivers. I think that's going to be something that keeps Hilton from being consistent week to week, but it's still

a situation where I'm comfortable taking the chance on him in tournaments when the price is as low as it is this week. Yeah, I can totally understand that and easily the number one pass catcher in that offense, right? And whenever you can say that about someone, that's usually a good attribute to bring in, no matter who the cast catcher is, no matter who the quarterback is, no matter the defense. It's really a nice spot for T.Y. Hilton to be in. C.D. Lamb is pretty much an auto play for me at this point. Until the price adjust, I'm going to still just be going after him.

$5,400. Dallas is going to be playing in shootouts all season long. He's just $100 more than T.Y. Hilton. He's $100 cheaper than A.J. Green, which is, you know, just mind-boggling to me after what we've seen from these two players through three weeks of the season. So he remains an incredibly cheap way to get invested in an offense that has been great this year and tied to a defense that has been bad this year. That makes C.D. Lamb really an easy play for me, another guy who I'm going to have a ton of exposure to here this week. Let's move on to the tight end position.

Let's get through this one relatively quickly. This is a spot where I typically like to go cheap, but I feel like this is a good week. for Mark Andrews. He's $6,000, $800 cheaper than Travis Kelsey, who's the most expensive player on the board here. It's got to be a get-right spot for Baltimore after getting embarrassed by Kansas City last week. They go up against a Washington team that is going to be playing without Chase Young. So that takes a big bite out of what we know is a good pass rush when it is fully healthy. That's just going to give Lamar Jackson more time to do what he does and these pass catchers to do more time to get open downfield. We haven't seen a big game.

from Mark Andrews the last two weeks. He did have two touchdowns in that week one win over the Browns. Last week, though, eight targets. A couple of those were end zone targets, so you do find a silver lining there. And again, with how much bargain we can find at running back end receiver this week, we might have a little bit of extra money to play with at tight end. So I'm inclined to build at least a lineup for two that does include Mark Andrews. Yeah, I just, I like it because volume-wise, he's right there with Hollywood Brown atop the list of pass catchers for Lamar Jackson. right. Andrews is a priority. He gets lots of targets in the red zone as well.

Darren Waller at 5,200, though, is a great bargain. I mean, Raiders' bills might come in a little higher than expected. I think the fact that the Rams came back in that game last week makes me realize that Bill's defense isn't bulletproof, and my trust level with the Raiders' offense continues to rise. Waller in particular is just fantastic. I can't believe he's 5,200. I would have guessed his price would have been 6,000 or so this week. based on the usage. I know last week against the Patriots, he was quiet, but look at the first two games. 24 targets, 18 catches, 148 yards and a score in those games. I'm absolutely in on Darren Waller

if I've got 5,200 for the tight end spot this week. The question though is, like, if you want to go cheaper, where do you go for punt plays at tight end? Guys, closer to that $4,000 mark? I think I go to Jimmy Graham, to be honest, $3,800. He had two touchdowns last week. From the point Nick Foles took over and on, he had seven targets, caught four of them for 47 yards and one of his two scores. All three of his touchdowns this year, too, Derek, have been from three yards and in. It was two yards, two yards, and three yards for his three touchdowns.

So that shows us that Matt Nagy really thinks of Jimmy Graham as a big-time weapon when the bears get near the goal line. And when you're looking at punt plays at tight end, what are you looking for? You just want a guy who can get into the end zone. And I think Jimmy Graham, out of this group of guys, Greg Olson at 4,100, Austin Hooper at 4,000, Moe-E-Cocks, 3,900, Gronk, 3,600. I will bet that Jimmy Graham has the best touchdown upside of that group, so I lean toward him. I'm trying to spend a little more where I can and make Hunter Henry sort of my core play at the tight end position this week. At least seven targets, each of the first three games. He's dealt with both quarterbacks already, so it's not a situation where we only like him with Tyrod or we only like him with Justin Herbert.

at least five catches each of these first three games as well and at least 50 yards along the way. So he just seems to have a really steady role in that Chargers offense. What do you think of Chargers bucks as a matchup overall? I wish Chris God when we're playing. I think taking a chess piece like that out of that game really does hurt things on both sides. I think that we might see a little bit more of a slower offense from Tampa than we're used to seeing and the Chargers have been running relatively slowly as well. So I wish God when we're out there.

Otherwise, with the way it's going to be, it's just a game that I can't get too excited about. Sounds like you're on the opposite side of that. Well, I thought the over-under would be a little higher, but it opened at 45 and a half and moved down to 43. I guess I'm just surprised that it dropped that much. I thought 45 and a half actually made a lot of sense. And the chargers are touched down underdogs,

so I think volume will be there for this passing game. And if there's volume, Hunter Henry is a big part of it. So I like him quite a bit at the price given the setup here this week. Let's wrap things up really quickly here at defense. Anyone jump out of you again? This was another week where I was scrolling up and down, up and down, up and down. And I just couldn't find anything I really liked at the price. Obviously the Rams are the best defense of the week.

But I just don't want to spend close to $4,000 on my defense. No, I don't either. And I keep landing on the Texans. I don't know if I'm just anti-Minnesota or what's wrong with me. but at 2,500, you're getting a cheap defense at home, one that can get a little bit of pressure and against an offense that's been occasionally really good, but for stretches really bad. And I just think defenses are so random.

When you don't have an obvious sort of play, try to save as much as you possibly can at the position. The projection you're going to see for the Texans is comparable to the defenses that cost $1,000 more. So save that $1,000 on Houston and apply it for an upgrade. or two somewhere else in your lineup this week. Yeah, I'm with you on trying to find some sort of bargain at defense. And I think Houston's a good one.

I think you can make an argument that even though as poorly as they played, that Minnesota is a good one. It's never bad to be involved in a game that goes back and forth. I would lean toward Houston. I think they're going to win. They're playing at home. All those hallmarks we look for in a defense. I've already mentioned a few players from this team.

So I'll just go back to the Bears. Hasn't been the defense that we're used to expecting, as we have talked about already. But they can still get some pressure on the quarterback. It doesn't take a lot to pressure Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers isn't running away from you so they can generate some pressure. I do think they can get some sacks. I do think that they can force Philip Rivers into a couple of bad decisions, get a couple of takeaways. And at $3,100, the price is definitely right.

It gives you plenty of flexibility across the board with the rest of your lineup. And with that, Derek, we are going to say goodbye to you and close the book on the DFS portion of this Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast, Athletic Football Show Joint episode. being here, man, good luck this weekend. Yeah, you too enjoy week four. Okay, we move on now to our Against the Spread picks portion of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show for Friday, October

2nd. To do that, we bring on Vic Tafer of Vic's picks. Of course, Vic, also one of our two Las Vegas Raiders beat riders. I'm going to be talking about that game a little bit later, but we'll save that for a little bit later. Vic, how you doing? I'm doing good, man. How are you doing? I am also doing good.

Yeah, we did okay last week. 5 and 5 as a pair, and I guess we had some crossover there. You went 3 and 2 for our week 3 audit. Your three wins, New England, San Francisco and Chicago, your two losses, Houston and Dallas. I went 2 and 3, Cincinnati and Kansas City were my wins. I also had Houston and Dallas, so 0 and 2 on our consensus picks for last week. I also had the Arizona Cardinals as my third loss. I got to be honest, Vic, I hate that Houston loss for us. That was the right pick for like 50 out of 60 minutes. of that game, 55 out of 60 minutes of that game. I hated that.

Yeah, it was tough. That one, and also both of our, we were both on the Cowboys. It was also a tough one. That last lob past the Metcalf, which the defense has totally broke down there. So I think those two, you know, two plays at the very end cost us two wins. Yeah, man. I'll say that we were maybe a little fortunate to be in the Dallas, Seattle one to begin with, thanks to D.K. Metcalfe?

I can't say that. It doesn't work that way. It's only bad beats. Dicketh the D. taketh away, right? Right, exactly. Oh, man. That's what we do here, though.

That's the way it goes sometimes when you are picking games against the spread at Houston one. I, like, man, I just, you would think that after, I'm 36 years old, you would think after all the picking against the spread I've done in my life, that you would get used to those that you just know they're going to happen. It doesn't make it any easier. It doesn't matter how many times it happens. When you feel like you've got you on the right side for 95% of the game, but the 5% you are on the wrong. side includes the end of the game. It just, it doesn't get any easier to get over. Hopefully we don't have any of that this week, right? Hopefully we just five and oh across the board. Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's get to these games here. Again, we are using the consensus

lines from Vegas Insider. So that brings in inputs from, you know, five, six different line makers and gives us a consensus line to go with. And Vic and I are recording this at 430 Eastern time on Thursday afternoon. So that is where the lines stand as of right now. Of course, things might change half point there half point there. By time you are making some picks on Sunday, but this is where things stand 430 Eastern on Thursday afternoon. We start with the Colts and the Bears. Colts are minus two and a half in Chicago and Vic. This is a pick that I'm going to make right off the bat. I like the Chicago Bears in this game. Overrunner is 43. Not really feeling either side of that, but I am feeling the Bears catching two and a half at home in what

will be Nick Foles first start in a Bears uniform. I just, I feel like this should be the Bears minus two and a half, not the Colts minus two and a half. And, you know, you can swing that however way you like, but, you know, we saw a level of competence from this Bears offense once Foles took over for Mitch Trubisky last week that we haven't seen in some time. Nick Foles led five possessions for the Bears against the Falcons. Say what you will about the Falcons defense. It's still a professional defense. Five possessions for Nick Foles. Possession number one, an overturned touchdown, a dubious overturned, if you ask me. me, that ended up being an interception.

Possession two, a drop touchdown pass on fourth down by Anthony Miller. Possession three, touchdown, possession four, touchdown, possession five, touchdown. 188 yards and three touchdown passes, maybe could have had five touchdown passes in about a quarter and a half, a quarter and three quarters worth of time for Nick Fools. Now you get the Colts coming to Chicago, a team that, you know, has slogged its way to a couple of wins the last few weeks, but I don't think anyone has been super impressed by, I think this Bears pass rush, even though it hasn't been, the Bears pass rush we're used to seeing, can create a lot of havoc for Phillip Rivers, a guy who's not going to run away from any

sort of pass rush. I really like the Bears this week. I think the Bears are my favorite play of the week, Nick Folles a little bit. I thought there's a little too much of the hype this week. I mean, the Falcons, you mentioned, they're professional defense, but not in the fourth quarter. I mean, they definitely, they fold quick. I mean, but you're really, you're Right, there's no value here if you want to go against the bear. So I think it's a good spread for you. And I definitely like the idea of going against Philip Rivers on the road. So I think it's a good play by you.

Yeah, it's one that I feel very good about it. It was, boom, right away. It was the first one listed to Colts Bears, two and a half. Boom, give me the Bears. I feel very good about this one. Let's move on to our next game. It's another team from the NFC North, that being the Detroit Lions. They are at home, and they are catching four against the New Orleans Saints.

54 is the over under on this game. As of right now, we know Michael Thomas is back at practice for the Saints, but still no word on his playing status for this game. And despite that, you are already ready to take the New Orleans Saints. Yeah, it's more of an anti-Mappertitia picked or anything else. I mean, they had a nice winning against the Cardinals last week, but I can't see him winning this kind of game. I think he's outclass in the coaching department.

The Saints defense has been pretty bad, but they can bounce back here against Agent Peterson. I mean, he's not the threat he once was. I think it's surprising the Lions are going to him so much. So I think it's a good spot for the Saints. They definitely want to prove they're still one of the best teams in the league. And they should be able to get the road to win pretty easily, I think. Hey, guess what?

We're going to make this a consensus pick where consensus picks did not work out for us last week. And actually, we're one in three on our consensus picks so far this season. So it's bound to turn around, right? I mean, we're too smartish guys who know the thing or two about football. It's got to turn around eventually when we both feel the same way. I'm with you on the Saints. And, you know, I think the Lions are maybe a little bit better than they get credit for. That was a nice win against Arizona last week, a team that I backed.

So I'm fading the Lions in consecutive weeks. But I just do think that we're going to see a bounce back game from the Saints. You know, everyone wants to put so much on Drew Breeze's arm strength and he can't throw down field anymore. It's not like this is new, right? This has been a thing for Drew Breeze. Going back five years now, he's actually ranked in the bottom three in the league, not bottom third. bottom three in the league in air yards per target. Going back five years now, year over year over year,

this has been the truth for Drew Breeze. So it's not like this is something new that they're figuring out on the fly. They know this about Drew Breeze, and they've been able to make it work time and time and time again. And I think they can make it work again. All signs do point to Michael Thomas being able to get back on the field for the Saints, and it's just, I think, a really nice bounce back spot.

We would have thought this line was going to be six and a half, seven, as recently as one week ago. So it feels like a very nice spot, get in on a Saints team that might be a little bit under value. We are both backing the New Orleans Saints here in week four, minus four at the Detroit Lions. Next game on the board, my Arizona Cardinals minus three and a half at Carolina. 51 and a half is the over under on this game. I'm not going to live, Vic. I had Cardinals written in as a pick I was going to make initially, and the more I thought about it, the more I just didn't feel super comfortable with it. What I'm most concerned about here

is the fact that DeAndre Hopkins has missed two straight practices with an ankle injury. That is a huge bite to take out of this offense if he is unable to go, or even if he's just at less than 100%. So I lean Cardinals, I stay away. You also not making this one of your five picks, but do you have a lean here? Sometimes you've got to tip your cap to the linemaker. That's a good line. Three and a half is a good number.

I think I wasn't going to lean towards the Panthers at home, but that defense just scares me. I think your boy, Collier Mary, is too good. So I think they'll probably cover that spread. but it's a good number, so I stayed away. Yeah, it is a good number. It's one that just doesn't feel right one way or the other. So, well, we're going to stay away from that one.

We're going to stay away from the next one. This is another one that I considered. I considered the favorite here. Cincinnati is the favorite. They are laying three, laying that field goal at home against Jacksonville. I want to believe in Cincinnati in this game, especially with Jacksonville getting exposed by Miami a week ago. But I kept thinking about the fact that Jacksonville looked pretty good,

the first two weeks of the season, beating the Colts, hanging very tough with the Titans and losing that game at the buzzer. Then they have a short week and they get blitzed by Miami. Now they're on the opposite of that. They'll have had 10 days off by time they take on the Bengals in Cincinnati. Just couldn't get away from that. So I ended up staying away from this game. What was your stayaway thought process for this one? Yeah, it's just two bad teams and laying points is never really that much fun. I think Joe Burrow is definitely the difference here. I think he should be able to cover the spread. But you're right. The Jack's an extra time to prepare. I think both teams are pretty similar talent-wise, so I think it's a good stay-away. Yeah, you mentioned in your Vicks

Picks column this week, which you should for sure be checking out every single week. Listeners, and if you're not an athletic subscriber just yet, of course, you can check that out for just $1 a month, get in the door, go to the athletic.com slash fantasy football pod. You can get yourself a subscription. One dollar a month, get Vicks, get everything that we offer at the Athletic. you pointed out in that column that the 02 and 1 bengals are 2 and 1 against the spread. So maybe a little bit more frisky, a little bit better than that 02 and 1 line would suggest. And speaking of heartbreakers, the Bengals were my upset pick or one of my upset picks last week. And they came through for me on the line.

But man, they should have won that game. How did they not win that game? Yeah, that was a tough one. Yeah, I mean, just the overtime thing, both teams didn't really seem like they wanted to win that game. It was kind of odd to watch. Yeah. I think Doug Peterson literally didn't want to win at the end, right? Instead of going for it on fourth down, punting away for the tie.

I hate to see that, but hey, it's something we have to deal with now in the NFL these days. Next game on the board, I think this is going to be a fun one. Cowboys minus four and a half at home against the Browns. We've got an over under of 56, and this is one that both of us are staying away to. For me, Vic, too many narratives in my head with this one where I could easily craft a Cowboys cover, easily craft a Browns cover. So it was easy for me to stay away in this one. This is a game, though, where I will be, I don't want to say convinced, because it's hard. That's not fully the right word, but I've been feeling fine about the Browns offense so far this season, even though they haven't

quite taken that step that I thought they could take, getting rid of Freddie Kitchens, bringing in the two new offensive linemen. I felt like they could take a step this year. It hasn't quite happened, but they also haven't gone in reverse. So I feel like they can be. get going. They just need to build a couple of good outings, one on top of the other, and they can get going. Baker Mayfield can get going. And we haven't seen it just yet. If they can't do it this week, playing indoors on the road, but indoors, no fans in the stands against the Dallas defense that has really struggled all year, that's when I will start to get worried about this Brown's offense. Yeah, I mean, the Cowboys have some pressure. It should be some pressure on Baker Mayfield. I think that

could be a key part of the game. But I've gotten my handburned three times on stove with the Cowboys this year, so I'm going to back off. I think it's a good spot for them. They're home. I think the other deck, like I said, they can't get pressure on Mayfield, but you mentioned the defense has been pretty bad. And the offense turns about over a lot, way too much for a good team. So I would lean towards the Browns. All right.

So again, no pick from either of us on this game. So far I've made two picks. You've made one pick. We're about to get plenty of Vic picks coming up here. And it starts with the Texans, minus four and a half at home against the Minnesota Vikings. 54 and a half. I almost joined you on Houston, Vic. I ended up staying away from this one. You are making the Texans one of your five plays. What has you on Houston at home against Minnesota this week?

Yeah, I'm just stubborn. I mean, they should have covered last week. The offense looked good for the first half. I think they have some nice pieces there. The Vikings defense is not very good. So I think it's a good spot for them. They had a really tough schedule. They played, you know, like three of the best teams in the league. The Vikings aren't quite that this year. So I think they should be able to win at home against the Vikings. Part of me wishes Houston looked a little bit better in those three games, but how many teams in the NFL right now would be 0 and 3 if their first three games were at Kansas City, home for Baltimore, at Pittsburgh? I think a lot of teams would be 0 and 3 if that was their schedule. Teams that are, I mean, the Bears are 3 and 0, right? The Bears are a 3 and 0 team.

The Houston Texans are 0 and 3. What if they flipped schedules, right? And what if the Bears started with Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and the Texans started with Lions, Giants, Falcons. The narrative surrounding those two teams could be a little bit different three weeks into the season. And not questioning my Bears pick whatsoever. I think the Bears moved to four and O this week. But it just goes to show that you need to take schedule into account, especially this early in the season.

I think that line is fair, but I still do like Houston on that line. I don't think there's extreme value, but I like Houston to get their first win and send the Vikings to O and four, something that I don't think a lot of people expected them to be sitting at four weeks into the season. And let's move on to our next game here on the early slate. We've got the Seattle Seahawks traveling across the country to take on the Miami Dolphins. Seahawks laying just less than a touchdown, six and a half, 53 and a half. Another big over under here. Vic, you like the dolphins getting that six and a half at home.

I don't think you're picking the dolphins to win, but you do think they can stay within that six and a half. Why do you like Miami? I think it's a tough spot for the Seahawks here coming off wins over the Patriots and the Cowboys. And now we have two obviously big games nationwide. lot of attention and they're playing really well. But now you fly cross-country to Miami. You can't be fired up to play a Dolphins. I mean, obviously, you respect your opponent,

but not as much as you had the last two weeks. Dolphins are a little dangerous. You know, I mean, Fitzmaic was good last weekend. They can put some points on the board every now and then. So I think it's a good spot for him being at home. I guess a team that's probably not totally locked in on facing them. So I think they cover the spread. I was almost going to pick the upset.

I almost got a little frisky, but I chickened up. You know, what's a good point with this Miami line is that Seattle has been bad defensively. It's straight up bad. I mean, there's really no way to sugarcoat it. They've been Russell coding it, right? They've been able to win every game because Russell Wilson is having just an unbelievable season. But it's been all offense for the Seattle team this season, that they've been able to win their first three games. The defense has given them nothing.

And so this Miami team, what you like about Ryan Fitzpatrick in this spot as a gambler is, There's no fear in him. There is no fear of any throw he is willing to make it. And you have some weapons in Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Isicki, Miles Gaskin emerging as an interesting guy in this backfield as a pass catcher, where you feel decent about Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping Miami in this game and keeping it close enough at least where the back door is open in the end of the fourth quarter. So I think Miami is the way to go.

That is my lean. However, it is not a pick. I am going to be making something else that we should note before we move on. is Carson almost certain to not play. The Seahawks haven't officially ruled him out, but they put a one to two week timetable on that knee sprain after last week's game against Dallas. So almost certainly it'll be Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer handling the backfield duties for Seattle. Let's move on to our next game here, Tampa and the Chargers. Buccaneers are favored by seven. We got an over under of 43 in this one. This is a pretty easy stay away for me, Vic. I want to like Tampa, but without Chris Godwin, I'm not sure I can trust them to win this game by more than it's. touchdown. Yeah, we're in the same pace. Their offense is still been sputtering a little bit, and that's just a lot of points against a team that Chargers are not bad, so I think that's a definitely a good stayaway game. I'll tell you what, though, Vic, I need the Buccaneers to win this for my Chargers last

place in the AFC Westbet, right? This is one. This is what I will have a rooting interest. Sorry Chargers fans who might be listening to this, but it's one that, right, when you're drawing up scenarios for a team to come in last place, winning a road game against Tom Brady where they are touchdown underdogs is not something you want thrown in there. So I'll be pulling for Tampa, we'll say here, but not one that I feel comfortable enough to bet here in week four. It'll be interesting to be how Justin Herbert plays in this game, right?

Because he played well in that first game against Kansas City. Last week he made some mistakes, but the stats at least look good. If he plays good in this game against Tanner, I just think it's going to be hard for them to go back to Tyrod Taylor, unless Justin Herbert totally falls flat on his face. So, well, we're going to have to watch that one closely for that as well. Our next game, the last game, in the early slate on Sunday, features just our second head-to-head pick of the season. Baltimore Ravens minus 13 at the Washington football team. 45 and a half is the over-under.

I like the Ravens. I'm willing to lay the 13. You like the Washington football team. I'll let you go first here, Vic, make the case for the footballs. It's not a very strong case. I must have liked other games very much because you need five. And this one didn't seem like an automatic play. But I liked the fact that the Ravens are on a short week.

I was a tough loss, obviously, against the Chiefs. Washington is not that bad defensively. I think they actually have, I mean, the offense is obviously terrible. But I think it's a good spot. I think I enjoyed reading about Ronald Rivera the last two weeks. You see this, he ate his timeouts the last two weeks, rather than go for the backdoor cover. So I'm sure this week will be the opposite.

This week will make sure and get that backdoor cover for me. Yeah, that's always going to be open with a 13-point line, and you have enough firepower with that Washington offense to stay close. Maybe you can talk yourself into it, but I really do like Baltimore here. I think this is a big bounce-back spot for them after, you know, getting kind of embarrassed, frankly, by Kansas City, right? This was supposed to be a clash of the Titans. Maybe they're the two best teams in the NFL.

This is a preview of the AFC championship game. last two MVP's, and Kansas City rolled into Baltimore and was in that game, it would control, excuse me, of that game from start to finish. There was never really a point where it felt like there was any doubt about who was going to win. Kansas City asserting themselves as the top dog in the AFC. So I think we see a big bounceback effort from Baltimore this week. I think they run away and hide from Washington. And one thing that really pushed it over the top for me, no Chase Young for Washington. Ronnie Stanley, Ravens, left tackle has also missed a couple of days of practice this week because of a shoulder injury,

so he could miss this game. But I think that losing him and Chase Young is not a one-for-one deal. I think that's a huge loss for Washington, and that takes a big chunk out of what has been a pretty good pass rush to this point of the season. So no Chase Young makes me feel even better about Baltimore, and I think this is a game that they put away early and they get back on track after that loss against the Chiefs a week ago. Let's move on to the late slate, just three games in that 405 Eastern 3rd. time kickoff. It starts with the Rams and the Giants. Rams 12 and a half point favorites at

home against New York. I'll be honest, Vic, I wanted to pick the Rams. I wanted to make the Rams one of my two, one of my five picks, but I hate picking two double-digit favorites as two of my five plays, and I like Baltimore better, but I just don't see how the Giants stay close in this one. Yeah, there's no way you can make an argument to pick the Giants here. I mean, I tried, I like getting points. It's fun, but the Rams, I think, should bounce back from their lost. Definitely, the Giants offense, I can't imagine how they hold court against the Rams defense. So I just think it'll be an ugly day for the Giants. I mean, they looked so bad last week. They look terrible. And maybe you talk about, you know, Devante Freeman now has had a week

plus in the building and he's learning the schemes enough to a point where he can be the main guy in the backfield in a way that just wasn't possible a week ago. But that offense looked terrible against a San Francisco defense that had, you know, was coming off an injury riddled week where they lost a couple of their best players on defense. And so it just looked so bad. I can't imagine that things look any better for them this week. But again, there's also, there are, so the reason why I'm not backing it as one of my five is because there are some considerations, right? And you got to think about how you're piecing your five together. And I just didn't want to back two monster favorites. And the Ravens were the one who jumped out a little bit more at me. But I

do like the ramps in this game against the Giants. Let's move on. One of the highlight games of the week, Chiefs and Patriots, Chiefs minus seven at home with the Patriots coming to town. 53 is our over under here. I almost always want to back Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Vic, but this just felt a touch too high. If you get me this at, I could even see myself on Sunday buying it down to six and a half and backing the Chiefs. It just felt a little too high with the way Cam Newton has played this season, and we

know what Bill Belichick can do with time to prepare for a team like Kansas City. So just a touch too high for me to get on board with it. Yeah, it is a little high, but you know, you're watching the Chiefs' offense on Monday night. I mean, they're just so incredible. Their confidence level is so high. So I can't imagine they worry too much about Belichick taking away one piece because they have so many pieces. I mean, McCle Hardman's like their fifth option, and he's very dangerous. So I just think that they keep rolling.

I think I've changed my mind. I said, The Ravens will go undefeated. I've now switched teams and said the Chiefs will go undefeated. So I've changed my horse week four. I'm going with the Chiefs to ride this wave all the way through. feeling this good about it, why didn't you pick it as one of your five? Because Bill Pellichick's pretty good, so I'm not going to totally dismiss. And Cam Newton's been impressive, I think, in the running game last week got on track,

so I can see them put some points on the board and keeping him somewhat close, but I just can't see him stopping him defensively. So I think for me it's not a matter of the Chief's not being able to score points, but it's a matter of the Patriots may be hanging around a little bit enough where they can sneak back in there and get the cover. Let me put this out there. I could see myself ultimately switching this with New Orleans if we get good word on Chris Jones. Chris Jones is dealing with a groin injury.

He has been unable to practice so far this week. If we get some good word on Chris Jones, I could definitely see myself backing this because, you know, Seattle, when they played New England, you had Cam Newton sitting back there all the time in the world. And that was the one game where he really looked comfortable and good throwing the football. The other two games for New England this year, he's really done much more damage running the football. and he had two rushing touchdowns in that game against Seattle, but that was the one game where he really looked good throwing the ball. And I think that if you can get pressure on him and get him out of that rhythm,

then you can really make him have to make a lot of plays with his legs. And I'm not sure he'll be able to make enough plays with his legs if Kansas City is getting consistent pressure on him to keep up with that Chief's offense. So that's when I could see myself changing. But for now, both staying away, both not putting it in our five. This next game I am putting in my five. It is the last game before Sunday night foot. football bills and Los Vegas Raiders. Buffalo going to Vegas, land three, 52 and a half.

I will be straight up with you, Vic, when I first did my first scan of this week. I just went right past this game. Raiders have a solid offense. You know, Bill's look good, but do I trust this team to win a game by three on the road against a quality opponent in the Raiders? Probably not. I'm moving on, but the more I looked at the slate, the more I thought about it, I really like this Bill's team. Josh Allen has put together three big games, and you can say everything you want about those first two. But last week, at home, against the Rams, gets out to a huge lead, looks great,

and then rallies after the team loses the lead and falls behind. I loved what I saw from this entire Bill's offense last week. I think they can go into Vegas and win this game by more than a field goal. So the Bills, part of my five-pack this week. I love these Buffalo Bills this season. I went the other way. I have the Raiders just my upset pick this week. I think the bills are going to come in a little flat.

Last week was a big game for them. It was a proven game against the Rams. Definitely they came back. They blew a lead, but came back. I think Josh Allen's a toast to the town right now, but it's a tough trip. I think that you get there and it's just an empty stadium and super quiet. I think the Raiders can run the ball. And the Bills have shown they're not great stopping to run. So I think that's definitely a way for the Raiders to go in this game. I think it will be close. And in fact, I think the Raiders will pull it

out in the end. So I had the Raiders winning this game outright. You know, that's the one thing that scares me as the Bill's backer this week is they've been gashed on the ground. I mean, even in those first two weeks against lesser opponents who they, you know, took care of pretty handily by the scoreboard. They were gashed. And then last week, Daryl Henderson was doing his best Todd Gurley circa 2016 impression. I mean, he looked great in that game and probably took over the Rams backfield because of how good he looked in that game. Even when Cam Acres returns, I think we're going to see a whole lot of Daryl Henderson for this team going forward. And that does concern me. I think Josh Jacobs is, not can, is going to be a major problem for the bills. But I still look back at what

bills have done in every game this season. Hats off to Brian Dable for totally adapting this offense on the fly, right? This was a run-heavy team in each of the last two seasons. And then as we've seen Josh Allen get a little bit better, you add Stefan Diggs to John Brown. And they've been one of the biggest 10 personnel teams in the league. They've been throwing the ball down field. They've been one of the biggest pass-happy teams in neutral game script. I mean, it has been a team that has been willing to open things up offensively. And I think that's the sort of substantive change. that can change what this team is. And I think this is another game where we see that offense take a step forward

and cement this team as one of the best in the NFL. Let's move on to the Sunday night game here, Vic. 49ers and Eagles, 49ers are touchdown favorites at home, exactly, lay on the 7. 46 is the over-under. I hate myself for wanting to back the Eagles in this game. I just, I couldn't do it. I've been fated the Eagles so hard,

but they felt like the right pick with all the injuries in San Francisco. go, I just couldn't do it. I couldn't do it. If you took the Eagles players, Vic, you took the Eagles players, you took them out of those jerseys and you made them, I don't know, the Jaguars, or you made them the Cincinnati Bengals, exact same team, just different name, different jerseys. I think I backed them. But I've been fading the Eagles so hard this season. And it's been good for me that I just couldn't do it. I couldn't do it and feel right about it. So I'm staying away from this game. How about you? Yeah, I hear you. I was the same way. I think for some reason that line looks good to me,

the Eagles plus seven. They can't possibly be as bad as they've looked the last few weeks. I think Carson wins can't possibly keep playing this badly. So I do almost also pick the Eagles, but I also chickened out. But I think it's a good spot for them. Nottiers had that big win last week where they had all their guys are hurt. They showed a lot of focus and beat, you know, they won both those games in New York. So they come home now.

I think maybe they're not totally as up as they were last week. So I think it's a good spot for the Eagles. But yeah, I also, I couldn't pull a trigger. Just couldn't. Just couldn't do it. And it sounds like it's going to be another Nick Mullen start for San Francisco. George Kittle did get back into practice fully on Wednesday. So George Kittle is going to be back.

There's still a possibility that Debo Samuel makes his 2020 debut in this game. So the 49ers are slowly but surely getting a little bit more healthy. We will see how many bodies they have available to them in this game against the Eagles. I will say pool where I have to pick every single game against the spread. I'm going to pick the Eagles, but I'm going to feel gross about it. Maybe you won't even watch the game because I just don't want to have. have to cheer for this Eagles team that I've been fading, really going back to the start of the season when I put a future on them to miss the playoffs entirely this year.

Last game of the slate, and guess what? We both have one pick left to make here. Green Bay Packers at home laying seven against the Falcons. 56 and a half is the over under in this game. Vic, I think you can make an argument that the Packers have been the most impressive team in the NFL over the first three weeks of the season. The Falcons, meanwhile, just dreadful defensively. I feel good laying the wood here. I will take the Packers.

I know you will too. Yeah, with the Falcons, there's only two ways you're going to go. They're going to go over the hump and stop choking games late, or they're going to start choking games in the first quarter. I think Dan Quinn's a guy to be on the hot seat by now. I think the team definitely has some problems, some injury or problems also. Like you mentioned, the Packers, they're scoring 40 points a week. I mean, Aaron Rogers is on fire,

and so I think that both those things continue, and the Packers fold up. I'm sorry, the Falcons fold up and the Packers roll. You know what I love about this Green Bay team through three weeks? Vic, is how they've done it differently, right? Go back to Week 2, and you saw a monster game from Aaron Jones. One of the biggest games we're going to see all season from a running back, doing it on the ground and through the year.

Now go to Week 3, playing without Devante Adams in New Orleans, a team that was a little bit desperate after their loss to the Raiders. And what do they do? They let Aaron Rogers open it up. They get a huge game out of Aaron Rogers and Alan Lazard playing without their number one receiver and they still roll up, you know, as many points as they did. They've done it so many different ways. It feels like there is no slowing down this offense with their diversity of approach and it does sound like they are going to be able to get Devante Adams back. He

returned to practice on Thursday. So that hamstring injury feeling like it's behind him, this team just has to have a ton of confidence as they play this game at home against a team that has to be at the opposite end of that confidence spectrum in Atlanta. Seven, I will say, when I first saw the number felt a little big, but when you just look at the way these two teams play, it felt to me ultimately like a don't overthink it sort of pick. So we both back the pack on Monday night. Let's wrap things up here with our first five picks,

and then we'll talk Survivor really quickly. You've got the Saints, Texans, Dolphins, Washington Football's, and the Packers. I am also on the Saints and the Packers with you. We are head to head in the Ravens and the Washington Football Team. right. And then I also add the Bears and the Bills to my five pack. We're sort of had to head in Bills and Raiders because that is your upset pick, the Las Vegas Raiders. My upset pick, I'll admit, it's kind of lame. It's only a two and a half point spread and they're playing at home,

but give me the Bears to win that game outright against the Colts. Let's talk Survivor really quickly here, Vic, our picks surviving last week. Of course, we put the Colts up as the big one, and they won that game against the Jets Handily. So thank you, Colts. Thank you Jets for that matter. To me, there are three big ones, three pretty obvious ones on the board this week, really two obvious ones. If you have one of them available, I don't see Vic how you don't go with the Rams of the Ravens. Yeah, I agree.

It's an obvious player. I can't imagine how the Giants who possibly win that game. I can't think of a scenario where that happens. Right, right. It just doesn't, it literally doesn't feel possible. I mean, it just doesn't feel like it's totally in the realm of possibility. So I'm leaning Rams as my pick. I just feel like there's going to be more spots down the line,

I'm going to want Baltimore. If you've already used the Rams somehow and you have the Ravens available, that's the way to go. But I really want my survivor life on one of those two teams, the Rams or the Ravens. If somehow you've used all three or you want to get a little bit friskier this week, I think Tampa isn't a bad play, even though neither of us felt comfortable on them covering the seven, feel like they could be a comfortable winner against the Chargers at home. And unfortunately, that's going to do it for us on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast. The Athletic Football Show. Again, if you like what you're hearing, but you're not yet subscribing

to The Athletic. One dollar a month to get in the door, go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod to do that for Vic Tafer and Derek Van Riper. I am Michael Beller. We will be back with you next week. Until then, thanks for listening and have a great weekend. This was The Athletic Football Show.