The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 4 fantasy & players who have lacked "juice" in 2022

Episode Date: September 29, 2022

From Austin Ekeler to Alvin Kamara, there are plenty of fantasy football names that were drafted high and haven't lived up to their expected returns thus far. But are we hitting the panic button, or sticking with our picks? Michael Beller and Brandon Funston bring you this week's fantasy football edition of The Athletic Football Show presented by KFC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hey, everybody, what's up? Welcome in to the Athletic Football Show, fantasy football edition presented by KFC. Michael Beller and Brandon Funston here with you as we get ready for week four of the NFL season. Funston, we've got a good one on Thursday night, Bengals and Dolphins, plenty of fantasy juice in that game. But we're going to be talking about some guys who haven't had quite so much juice this season. season and what we feel about them going forward. How you doing, my friend?

I'm doing good, man. I feel like we're starting to, you know, kind of get some more tangible stuff to go on here. I've, you know, it's been a rough start for me in fantasy. I have a couple of my big teams are struggling. But we'll continue to try to make some sense out of it all. And hopefully we'll get back on the right track. Yeah, it's exactly what we're going to try to do with some guys who are potentially contributing. I guess they're almost certainly contributing to some underachieving fans.

fantasy teams. Maybe you have one or two of these guys and have been able to overcome what their slow starts have meant for your team. But five guys who we're going to talk about here who definitely are not quite living up to the billing and what we should do with them going forward. The first guy who I want to talk about Funston is Austin Echler. I actually feel like the obviously most early round running backs have not quite lived up to the billing this to this point of the season. I feel like it's been a little bit overstated. Like few of them have been bad. It's just that most of them haven't been what you expect when you use the first or second or third overall pick on them. Austin Echler, in terms of just bottom line production, has been bad.

The RB 22 and half PPR leagues, 32 carries for just 80 yards. He has caught 21 passes for 139 yards, has yet to find the end zone. This Chargers running game is a mess. This team is now just stocked up with injuries, including what might be the most important one to Austin Echler, Roshan Slater, done for the year with a torn biceps. So what do you make of Echler going forward? Yeah, I mean, if you look at historically as rushing numbers, you know, the yards per carry is nice, but he's not, he has not been a big guy on the ground, you know, that hasn't been his game. The 21 catches you reference that that nets out to 119 for a full season pace.

That's what we need from Austin, Acceler. That's how we get the, you know, the high per touch, you know, value out of him in fantasy. So I feel good about that. I mean, I think we look across the board at pretty much all the chargers. Keenan Allen's been hurt, but like Herbert, you know, hasn't, you know, up until he got hobbled, he hasn't been himself either. I think, you know, if we're talking about this in the same vein next week after they play Houston, then it becomes a little bit more of a problem that's exacerbated. But we want Austin Echler for his catches. I think we all expected touchdown regression from the 20 he had last year, 12 on the ground.

And I think we're looking at Austin Echler as RB 22 and half PPR as his floor. This is as bad as it's probably going to get for him. I expected to get better. But I think the moral here is, is if you had him in your top five, he was overdrafted. I think it's similar to maybe like a Derek Henry where these were guys that probably should have went in the back end of round one that were going in the front end. Yeah, like I'm very partial to Echler. And I'm a little bit worried about all the injuries that are going on with this team.

But I think if someone told you through three games, he was going to of disappointing production, but was going to have 32 carries and 22 targets, you would be like, all right, you know, I'll live with the bad three weeks. 32 and 22, that sounds pretty promising going forward. Because if anyone was making a anti-Ekler as a top five, six pick argument, it was largely based on not just touchdown regression fundston, but also just like usage regression. Isaiah Spiller was going to get involved. And he certainly has been involved, but that Echler wasn't going to also be able to match

the number of targets that he put up in 2021. And to this point of the season, even though Spiller's been involved, you're totally happy with the workload, just the pure workload, the pure amount of opportunities Echler is getting on a weekly basis. You're definitely happy with that. You're just not happy with the production. And so I think that I feel pretty good about Echler going forward. If he was someone who was being made available in trade discussions in one of my leagues,

I would certainly engage because it can't get any worse than this. And I don't think you want to go out and trade for Echler, just being like, oh, yeah, he can't be any worse than RB22, but I think he's going to be RB17. Like RB17, this point forward, is not good outcome for Eccler either. But I think there's enough reason to believe in what the foundation is that this could still be a top 10, top 12 running back for the remainder of the season. So I feel decent about him. I'm not quite so sure how I feel about this next running back. And actually the last running back we're going to talk about on this episode is Alvin Camara.

Alvin Camara has 24 carries for 100 yards on the season. Just 11 targets. It's got five of them for 19 yards. He is the RB 51. To be fair, he did miss a game with injury, but I look at this New Orleans Saints team, Funston, and I just get a little bit worried about what the offensive environment is going forward for Camara. And maybe he's just not exactly the same guy he was as recently as two, three years ago.

And so that makes the calculation, I think, a little bit different on Camara than it does for Echler, even though it certainly can't get any worse for Camara either. Yeah, you know, and he has a torn rib cartilage. and Virginia Zoccus from the athletic who does the injury reporting said this is a very painful injuries worse than a broken rib and you can play through it but it's incredibly painful and it lasts about a month before you can start feel like you're turning the corner on it. So he's playing through that right now. We've got to add it in there. You mentioned the Saints and my thought was Saints' offensive identity and who are these guys and what like who is what's the hierarchy of the passing game and how much are they you know how much as Camara mixing in with that when now you have three legit wide receiver options, the fact that James Winston hasn't really been great at making running backs excel in the passing game in the past. So you factor all this in there. And the nice thing about Camara is that he wasn't costing you as much as Austin Eccler. And we have seen him for week to week volatility.

It's always been a thing with him. You know, when the dust settles, the numbers usually look pretty good. I'm still sort of banking on that. And if you got him at the early summer price as opposed to the late summer price, I think you're just fine because I think the idea of his off-the-field stuff and the suspension is kind of something that we're going to kick down the road. And you're not going to have to worry about that so much. So now it just comes down to production. He's not super healthy right now.

I think it's going to take a little while for this Saints team to figure out what their identity is. But in the wash, I feel okay about Camara. If I told you you could acquire Austin Echler for a back-end R-B-1 price, are you saying, yeah, I'll do that or are you taking a pass? I think I'll do that. One thing we've got to remember is that Justin Herbert was like the odds-on favorite for the most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns. He hasn't been, and this passing offense hasn't been what we thought, but that just creates so much more room for Austin Ecclure to operate, both in the running game and in the passing game. You know, Keenan Allen comes back. You get more out of Mike Williams and Josh Palmer.

but really more out of Justin Herbert. A lot of this has to do with this offensive line, as you mentioned. But if that's going to be okay, the neckler's going to be okay in my mind. All right. And then Alvin Kamara, if I said, you know, back end top 20 running back. You can go out and get him for that price. Does that feel okay to you? Are you trying to get him for a little bit less than that right now?

Well, I think that's okay to me because you mentioned it. There is a lot of running backs that haven't come online yet and they have some issues going on. and a lot of running backs in that original top 20. So I don't know that I feel appreciably worse about Alvin Camara than a whole lot of the other guys that are in there. Interesting season thus far at the running back. Because again, I feel like the, oh my God,

what's happening with running back is like a tiny bit melodramatic. It's a tiny bit overstated because most of them are having fine seasons. It's just that they're not having these monster starts to the season, really everyone other than Sequin Barkley. So it's just an interesting group, I think, that ultimately is going to settle in a way that looks right by the end of the season, but right now certainly doesn't. These guys at the top of that list. All right, Funston, wide receiver one, who I want to talk about here is DJ Moore.

Now, DJ Moore, 18 targets on the season, has caught just seven of them for 88 yards and a touchdown. He is the wide receiver 61, Funston. That is an ugly number to be looking at next to DJ Moore's name. You can't really argue with the target percentage that he has on Carolina, but Baker Mayfield looks terrible, Funston, and I think a lot of us were thinking, all right, DJ Moore's played with bad quarterbacks for his entire career. Baker Mayfield looks like maybe the best one.

Maybe that's not true, and this could be something that hampers him all season long. How are you feeling about more if you've got him or if you're looking to maybe trading for him? Yeah, you're taking some of my talking points there, absolutely. I mean, I think Baker Mayfield looks awful, and, you know, the expectations for him was that he would basically provide more with the best arm

that he's had to work with. And so far, not so much. Christian McCaffrey's kind of feeling the brunt of it as well. And then you look in Cleveland where O'Dell Beckham went there and, you know, kind of at the top of his game and, you know, things went down the drain in Cleveland with Baker Mayfield and he wanted out of there. And so I'm a little bit worried about D.J. Moore because I have him everywhere. And, but here's what I.

Yeah, I just look at this from the 10,000 foot view of, okay, your Carolina, your offense is stinking and your two best offensive players are Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and they're both being underutilized and not put in the position to show what they can do. I think it's going to be a point of emphasis. I absolutely think, you know, again, we talk about, give it the next couple weeks because if I'm a coach and this seems very obvious to me, we need to get Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore more involved because DJ Moore at the wide receiver position, one of the best in the league when the ball is in his hands. You know, he is his yards out. after catch kind of guys.

He came from Maryland. He has some similarities to former terrapin Stefan Diggs as well. I mean, they're similar ilk as receivers. So, you know, I'm already worried that he's not going to live up to my lofty expectations going to the year. But I do think we will see a correction towards the better here in short order. Yeah, I mean, it couldn't not get better, of course. And I guess that sort of trade analysis for all the guys we're talking about here. But, I mean, everything you say about like coaching staff knows I have to.

get them going. That's especially true when you're a coaching staff that knows, it seems like your time of Carolina is running short here. And so, how could you possibly save your job? Get those guys going. Get those offensive players going because you've got some pretty decent skill talent on this team. Obviously, DJ Moore is a big part of that. And if you get them going, maybe you can save your job. Maybe you can pull yourself out of it. I don't know if Matt Ruhl gets another shot at picking and running with a quarterback and building a winning team. But either way, you know that you've got to try to get DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, a little bit more.

I would say in McCaffrey's case, just more productive and in DJ Moore's case, more involved, get the ball in his hands more off. And an interesting guy that I think to look at over these next couple of weeks as Carolina maybe figures something out with that offense. DJ Moore, let's do the same exercise here. Top 24 receiver, are you still willing to pay that price if that's what his owner is asking for in the trade market in the league of yours? No, I'm not. I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit beyond that. Maybe top 30 you're talking about, but there's, you know, there's guys in that top 30 discussion that are producing right now that I would be hard to, you know.

I just, I think DJ Moore is a bench until further notice kind of kind of guy. And I think this is going to be the same for the guy we're going to talk about next. But I, I am out on DJ Moore as a wide receiver two right now. I just want wide receiver three production going forward. Funston. What if I told you that someone. who is doing this show, who happens to be wearing a backwards hat, also had Alan Robinson and DJ Moore on the same team on one same team and how that team might be doing. Let me just say

something for that team. Thank God for Jalen Hertz. Thank God for Jalen Hertz and Trevor Lawrence and it being a super flex league. Because if not for those guys, Alan Robinson and DJ Moore would be absolutely dragging that team into the muck. Alan Robinson is the next guy we are going to talk about the same stats as DJ Moore. Seven catches for 88 yards, just 12 targets in his. three games. He has found the end zone once. Wide receiver 66. Funston, I'm not in the fantasy show with you and Jake anymore, so I haven't got the opportunity to save this with you guys.

I think we whiffed on this one. We were all very high in him. To give ourselves a little bit of credit, most everyone felt very good about Alan Roberts and getting out of Chicago, going to Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford, Sean McVeigh, that offense, wide receiver twos have always produced in that offense. I think we just whiffed, and I think this is going to be ugly all season. We were all riding that hot air balloon and we're all falling as it's been popped. The bubble has burst. Yeah, I mean, look, I think it was going into week two that they said they needed to get Alan Robinson more involved.

And so he got five targets. He got four catches, 53 yards and a touchdown. The next week he was down to two targets. I mean, that's two weeks out of three where he's had two targets or less. And now Van Jefferson's out. That's your hope here, right? Like, typically this has been plenty of an offense to support two wide receivers and a tight end. I mean, it kind of seems like Tyler Higbee's kind of elevated into, you know, wanting to be that number two guy.

But, you know, Jake, you know, just to kind of steal on what Jake was talking about how in week one, the bill's double-teamed Allen Robinson and let Cooper Cup get his, but not let somebody else burn them as well. It's a copycat league. I haven't really dove into how much other teams have tried to follow suit on that. but, you know, I think there's been a game plan in place against this Rams passing game and it seems to be sort of working right now. And that, unfortunately, is bad for Alan Robinson. So, I mean, he's in the DJ Moore class.

I'm not cutting him yet. But I'm certainly not playing. I don't know what someone like you does when you can't play both Moore and Robinson. I don't know what your bench is available. I'm playing more. I mean, the bench looks fine. That team also has Chris Godwin. I mean, the wide receiver situation on that team is just an absolute mess.

So I'm definitely still playing DJ Moore. And that's not just a happenstance thing. I feel like I'm a little bit higher. Maybe higher's not quite the right word. But I feel a little bit more secure in what Moore's role is in Carolina and what the production can still be there. That I feel okay about starting him. Definitely do not have the same feelings about him right now that I did on draft day.

But I still feel okay about starting him. Alan Robinson is just the prototypical bench until proven otherwise. Because this is just, this is ugly. This is ugly. and just like it just doesn't look like the juice is there. Like anyone can look at the box scores and anyone can look at the season long stats and say, yeah, this is bad, but you watch them play and you watch him running his route. And it just looks like he is incapable of getting open.

And that's just not going to work even with a quarterback who is not afraid of tight window throws like Matthew Stafford. I just think that this can't work. This cannot work until he proves otherwise that it can't. Well, it's so crazy. We've seen two top 15 wide receivers in this offense, like, plenty of times. And if it's not Alan Robinson, with no Van Jefferson there, you would think, like, is it going to be scowernick? I mean, are we, is there a, like, it's got to be somebody.

Like, I just, it's hard for me to believe that the Rams could wallow, you know, in this, or, you know, it's just, it's just more Cooper Cup all the time. Although he, and he was down last week. It's Arizona, though. Cup never does anything against Arizona, apparently, so I don't know. It's just, it's crazy. It's bad. It's bad. And like, so on an Alan Robinson team, like, I would, I mean, 60 cents on the dollar from his draft day price, I'd probably be comfortable giving him up for.

And like, you start to think about what that is and what that means. And the ceiling there is so low on like 60 cents of the Allen Robinson dollar that it almost becomes like a need based thing. That it's like, oh, you know, I'm, I've got a zero at tight end. So I'll go ahead and trade Alan Robinson for, you know, whoever like. tight intent. Like, and like, there's just, there's almost nothing you can do with it because you can't play him. You can't cut him. You can't move him for what you're likely going to get because it's just not going to be anything. Like everyone who doesn't have Alan Robinson feels like they dodged a bullet this season. And that's just not something that you really want to be dealing with in any way. Yeah, you know, it's funny. You have Alan Robinson and you see someone, okay, like Zay Jones out there producing, week and week out, getting targets.

And you can't get yourself because of the name brand and because of the, the cost, you know, that you put in to Alan Robinson. You can't get yourself to just cut him outright. But I think most people that are shrewdly, you know, watching and analyzing this stuff would say, God, I just would rather have Zay Jones on my team right down at Allen Robinson, but you're kind of stuck, you know, you can't make that move because you've got to try to salvage something for the Allen Robinson, like you said, you got to go out there and try to get 60 cents on the dollar. And I'm with you. I'd probably be looked for that. Zay Jones, also at Jacksonville Jaguar, just to twist the knife a little bit more for

Alan Robinson. One more receiver here. This guy I feel okay about it's Brandon Cooks, but I think we should talk about him. I think it's worth talking about just because the production hasn't been there for him. 13 catches, 29 targets, 158 yards. He's the wide receiver 53. He's getting 10 targets a game. Davis Mills is his quarterback. You had to know that there were going to be some up and downs, maybe some false starts to begin the season when Davis Mills is your quarterback as competent as he looked last season. Brandon Cook is pretty much always delivered, including with Davis Mills last season, this one I feel okay about. This is one who out of all the guys we've talked about here, Funston, I'm really just sort of figuring this out

now. Out of all the guys we've talked about on this episode, I think Brandon Cooks is the one who I would feel closest to his draft day value about as we sit here going into week four. Yeah, I'm absolutely with you. I had this in mind coming in. It's like, Brandon Cooks is a guy, I just don't, I have no problem. You mentioned the 29 targets that's 13th among wide receivers. you're basically getting 10 targets a week. You can go back to last year, look at week four through week seven, no touchdowns, 47 yards, 23 yards, 89 yards, and 21 yards. That was a dry stretch last year that was worse than this year.

You look back to the first four games of 2020. He had three games of 23 yards or less. And yet he always seems to, you know, things tend to just work out in the end for him. You know, there are going to be some ups and downs along the way. But we always say follow the volume. Cook's is getting it. He's proven it in this situation before. Really no reason to hit the panic button.

Yeah, I'm totally with you. Totally with you. I really feel okay about him. And I guess generally okay about the running backs we talked about off the top of the show too. It's just here we are going into week four. And I think even though we feel okay about these guys, for people out there listening, it's perfectly reasonable to be concerned about them. Like don't feel like you're a crazy person or that you are,

are doing something wrong if you are starting to look at that panic button or even hit the panic button on these guys because, you know, Echler and Camara, they were supposed to be the heart and soul of your team. DJ Moore, Alan Robinson, they were supposed to be solid week in and week out contributors. So it makes sense that you're already thinking about that. We are, what, one fourth of the way, Funston, into a typical fantasy football regular season. So it gets late early in fantasy football league. It's perfectly reasonable to be concerned about these guys, and that's why we talk about them on the athletic football show. Fantasy Football Edition presented by KFC. That's it for us here. We are all done. Please subscribe to the athletic football show on

YouTube. You can find these full shows on YouTube. If you like to look at our faces and see what that backwards had I reference looks like, you can go ahead, subscribe to that YouTube page. Athletic Football Show, you will find a link to it in the description. Also subscribe to the Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Funtzden I back with you right here, same spot next week, going into week five. Until then, good luck in all your leagues. We'll talk easy. This was the Athletic Football Show.