The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 5 DFS plays and picks against the spread

Episode Date: October 9, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 5 DFS slate. They discuss a lack of high-priced options at running back and receiver, and what that means for the slate as a whole.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every remaining Week 5 game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 29:19). Can the Browns pull a mini-upset on the Colts? Can the Falcons finally get their first win of the season? Are the Chiefs going to run away and hide from the Colts? And can the Vikings keep pace with the Seahawks? We have answers to those questions, and plenty more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Everybody, Friday is here. The weekend is here, and so is the Athletic Fennis Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Our little Friday marriage here of these two podcasts. I am Michael Beller. We've got a two-prong pod coming at you right now. We've got DFS talk to kick things off with Derek Van Riper. Gambling Talk with Vic Tafor a little later on.

So let's bring on DVR. How's it going, man? it's going okay. I started looking at this board a lot in the last 24 hours, and it is a strange week. I mean, we'll get into some of the details, but by-weeks, we've had a lot of injuries this season, and on top of that, we have some more COVID concerns about games maybe getting postponed. And on top of all of that, I think some of these matchups are just kind of lopsided, too. So it feels like the player pool is about as small as it ever is for a main slate on a Sunday. Yeah, this really is a weird week.

You mentioned the buys. We have our first scheduled by week of the season. Packers and Lions taking a seat so you think of all the DFS players just on those two teams that we regularly talk about. We've had a slew of injuries over the last few weeks. We have the Buccaneers off the board with the fact that they played on Thursday. And Chris Godwin would have been injured anyway and unavailable to us. We've got the Vikings and Seahawks on Sunday night, the Chargers and Saints on Monday night. A lot of fantasy players on those teams.

We've got Bills and Titans, potentially not playing. Still some concerns for Patriots and Broncos, although that game looks a little bit more clear than Tennessee and Buffalo. Just a very weird slate because of all the differing factors that are going into this week. Let's look at the high total games, Vikings and Seahawks, the highest on the board, but of course that's Sunday night football, 57 and a half. We've got the Raiders and Chiefs at 56 and a half, Jaguars and Texans at 54 and a half, Giants, Panthers, Falcons,

those both at 54. Bengals Ravens, Chargers, Saints, the latter being Monday night football, both at 51. Just a strange, strange week with a bunch of high overunders, a bunch of low overunders, and all the complications with the buy for the Green Bay and Detroit and the COVID concerns.

Any of these games or anything like that factor into your decision-making process this week? Yeah, I mean those top five, the 54s and over, well, there's four that are on the main slate, those are the ones where, my attention is focused primarily. I think that's the case for everybody. That's the other problem, though,

is that we don't have a very even distribution of high-scoring games and then some mid-range games and low. It's kind of either 51 or above or, like, in the 44 range, which leaves us with some games that are very difficult to squeeze players from. Yeah, that's where I focus my attention to. I really like that Jags Texans game. I think that's one that should play to the script. I actually like Bengals Ravens because of the,

competence that we've seen from Cincinnati's offense over the last couple of weeks, getting T. Higgins more involved and coming to grips with what A.J. Green is and isn't at this stage of his career. I think the Bengals are going to be able to keep that game semi-interesting at least and maybe push it past that 51 number. So that's one that's outside of those top five that I would look at as being pretty interesting. Let's get into our position by position, look at the slate, and let's start at the quarterback position. I wonder if this is a position where we finally spend up this week. Often we focus on some of the cheaper plays, but as we're going to talk about in a little bit, there's not a whole lot of expensive guys to target at running back and receiver, and that makes it

feel like a week where you really could spend up at the quarterback position and go after someone like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, I think a big key is, as he said, the top running backs are not as expensive as it ordinarily would be. It gives you the option to either spend up at quarterback or spend up at tight end. I'm probably more likely to spend up at tight end, given the options, because I feel like some of the cheap quarterbacks hold up pretty well, whereas some of the cheap tight ends have very uncertain target floors,

or they don't necessarily have good matchups this week. But I do think there's a path to get to any quarterback you want. I'm a little concerned about Lamar Jackson. We found out he missed practice again on Thursday. They're saying it's a knee injury slash illness, so we'll see what the end of the week. week brings as far as his availability goes. But I think if you're going to spend up, you want to at least get to the Deshawn Watson line.

He's 6,900. And I think the cool thing about Deshawn Watson right now is you can play him without pairing him with one of the receivers if you want to. You're not obligated to also play Will Fuller. You certainly can do it. But I think the way they spread the ball around and I think the way Brian and Cooks has disappointed us especially kind of leaves us with an easy Watson standalone option if we want it.

Yeah, I think that's a good call here. If I'm going to pay up, I'm probably just going to take any sort of guesswork out of it and do it for Mahomes at the $7,700 price. It's just an offense that we trust to deliver every single week. And I think you are right about this being a good week to do it, and you'd rather do it here than at tight end for all the reasons you said. But I still can't get away from some of the cheaper targets on the board. My favorite quarterback play this week is looking like Gardner Minshue, $6,200 going up against a Houston defense that, frankly has just been dreadful this year. And you can say everything you want about getting Bill O'Brien out of there and a team ready to compete with a sort of addition by subtraction at its back. But I just think that's a bad defense. And I think it's one that Minchew's going to be able to get at. Two games this season with three touchdowns, three games this season with multiple touchdowns, two, 300-yard games this season.

Gardner-Minchu's been pretty productive so far this year. He's ninth among quarterbacks in points, 12th among quarterbacks in points per game. and they don't really hold anything back with him. He always has that rushing upside. We haven't seen it flourish in a big way this year, but it's still there. And even though we haven't seen it in a big way, he has run for at least 19 yards in three out of four starts this season. So obviously that's not moving the needle in a significant way, but it shows you that even in games where he doesn't run at all, not running at all for him still means about 20 yards.

So I really do think that this is a great spot to get him in a game where we've gotten over under of 54. and a half going up against a Houston defense that really hasn't been anything special this year. When you look at that group of quarterbacks, and you can talk on Munchu if you want, but when you look at that group of quarterbacks who are a step or two down from the more expensive guys, who jumps out of you? Even with the uncertain availability of Julio Jones, I think Matt Ryan at a comparable price makes a lot of sense. 6100 is fine for him.

Their home against the Panthers shouldn't have a lot of issues. Moving the ball in that matchup, you got a nice close point spread in that game as well. so it should be back and forth with those two offenses. So I do think there's kind of a sweet spot there with both Minshu and Ryan. Ryan probably a little more of a cash play. Minshu, because of low projected roster rates, makes a lot of sense in tournaments. You could probably stack up that game if you wanted to go something like Minshu

with DJ Chark and at least run it back with Will Fuller on the other side and you come up with a pretty good base going that route. But I think quarterback also has a few cheap options that are worth discussing. I mean, if Jimmy Garoppolo were totally healthy, I think you'd have to at least consider him against that dreadful Miami defense at 5,500. We're not going to know, maybe even until game time, if he's going to be good to go. So that adds a lot of risk. And initially when I looked at this board, I thought Daniel Jones going up against Dallas was free money.

He's been bad so far this year. Yes, yes. And I thought the appeal would be that he'd still be relatively underowned, but the more I've looked at roto grinders this week and trying to get a feel for what the field is likely to do, Giants are popular this week because Dallas has been so bad defensively. We saw what they did. They really breathed some life into the Cleveland passing game a week ago. So that's more of a free square than I thought.

And as a result, I'm not going to go completely overboard, loading up giant stacks the way I thought I was when this week began. But the other names that I think are interesting, Derek Carr is really cheap. 5300 in that Raiders chiefs matchup. You know, last year, a lot of times you could go with whoever was facing the Chiefs, and just because they had volume trying to keep pace with the Chief's offense, it would work out. But Kansas City's defense has been excellent so far, Beller. So I'm just curious, have you been even trying to attack Kansas City with the opposing passing game so far this season? Because if you have, it's definitely gone the wrong way for you so far in DFS.

Yeah, I really haven't been. And this team can get after the quarterback, and their offense frees them up to pin the years back and get after the quarterback. That's even been the case with Chris Jones missing a game last week against the Patriots, and of course it wasn't with Cam Newton on the field, but they were still able to create some havoc and get in the pocket. And that would have been the truth even with Newton. Now, Newton would have been better equipped to get away from that pressure than Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham were, but the pressure still would have been there, and that would have been

without Chris Jones. This team can really, really get after the passer, and that makes me feel very good about the defense, actually. They're going to be one of my favorite defense plays this week, because I don't think there's a ton out there in the really cheap group of defenses in week five. I like them a lot. I would be staying away from really that entire Vegas passing game, Darren Waller included.

I'm not really interested in him. I just think that this Chief's team favored by nearly two touchdowns in this game can really run away and hide, and that's going to mean good things for their defense, bad things for the Vegas offense. I think the Giants are an excellent fave this week. It's defensive matchups run amok. I think buying into this Giants offense.

At some point, you can't do it all on matchup. And we just have to square ourselves with the fact that this giant's offense is a bad offense. And Daniel Jones is not taking a step forward, as so many people hoped he would this season. And you can talk about the Sequin Barclay injury all you want, Sterling Shepard not being out there. But he's just not progressing in the way that you would hope to see from a second year quarterback. And I just don't think that any matchup in the world can save them right now.

So I'm going to let people load up on Giants if they want. It feels like fool's goal to me. And you can't just bet on a bad defense being bad. that offense still needs to be able to take advantage. I'm not sure that the Giants offense is equipped to take advantage. We have plenty of other quarterbacks we can talk about. We've got to move on to the running back position. I will say other guys who I like in the same range as where I talked about with Gardner, Minchu,

Teddy Bridgewater, 5900, Panthers at the Falcons. Joe Burrow, 6,000. Like I said, bad matchup, sure, against Baltimore, but that Cincinnati offense is not afraid to let him sling it. And we've seen Tyler Boyd be a very effective receiver all season. T. Higgins emerging Joe Mickel. and popped up on the injury report on Thursday, but if they keep him as part of the passing game,

that gives Joe Burrow three reliable weapons, even in a game against a defense as tough as Baltimore's. Let's talk about these running backs now here, Derek. No big prices on the main slate, and for me, that leads to the volume of Clyde Edwards-Hillair as my favorite player. $6,800, one of the more expensive guys when you're looking at the main slate. He hasn't been anywhere near as explosive or efficient on a per-touch basis as a lot of people thought he was going to be, but the touches, they are there for him in spades,

and no one is afraid of this Raiders defense. No, I think it's only a matter of time before Edwards-Hillard comes up with a two or three TD game, though, in this offense. It's going to happen eventually, right? The touches have been pretty consistent. That's encouraging to me. We've had a couple of games where he's gone over 18 draft king's points. He's had a couple games in the 12-13 range as well, but it's 6,800 home against the Raiders.

it ticks all of the boxes. We talked about all the missing running backs for all the different reasons that they're gone this week. It's one of the easiest plays possible. I think pairing up Edwards-Helair and Zeke is the first two clicks for most people building a lineup this week, whether it's a cash game or a tournament, and you're going to decide to get your differentiation points

with your combination of your quarterback and your receivers and your tight-in. So I think that's almost like a no-brainer just because Zeke should cost $8,500 on this slate, and Clyde Edwards-Halear should probably cost about 6,800 on this particular slate. I'm curious what you're going to do with your flex spot, though, because I was thinking more tournament build when I first started putting my lineups together this week.

I know Todd Gurley has been basically a ghost in the passing game, but the Falcons, as we mentioned before, they've got a nice close home matchup against Carolina. The Panthers have been soggy against the run. They're giving up more than five yards per carry on the ground. The TD distribution within the offense could be a little tighter if Julio doesn't play. So I know Gurley's more touchdown dependent without that role in the passing game, but at 5,700, especially in tournaments, this looks like a really nice setup to take that chance. Yeah, it's really not a bad play.

I mean, I'm probably not going to do it very much, but I see where you're coming from. And it's not like anyone's asking you to pay a huge price for him at $5,700, right? I mean, I think we get lost in that sometimes, that, you know, Todd Gurley, obviously, is not the player that he was a couple of years ago. And because of that, it's like we go from 60 to zero on him in the blink of an eye. When he's not a zero player, he might be a 35 player, right? Just keeping it nice and comfortable on a suburban street, but still a guy who can deliver at that $5,700 price. So I definitely see where you're coming from there. And I see where you're coming from on Zeke, too. What I like

about him most of this year is the fact that he has been a big presence in their passing game all season, but something just feels off with him and with the way that Dak Prescott is really the heartbeat of that offense. I actually find myself avoiding him. One of the first couple of clicks that I'm doing in addition to Clyde Edwards hilarious. Kareem Hunt at $6,500 with that backfield, I think largely to himself. Yeah, I know that this Indianapolis defense is looking like it could be one of the better units in the league, but if Hunt really is going to handle the lion's share of both carries and targets for Cleveland, I mean, I think we're talking about not only a RB1, but over the next five weeks, maybe a top five running back until Nick

Chubb gets back for this Cleveland team. You've got him at 6,500. And it opens you up to beginning Patrick Mahomes or paying up for George Kittle at the tight end position. He's really a guy who I like a lot. And Mike Davis, I think, is easy to get behind too, Derek. We've seen what he's done. The last two weeks is the starter. You can even go back to week two catching eight balls after Christian McCaffrey left the game. So that wasn't even in a full game's worth of play that he caught eight passes.

They feel comfortable just treating him the same way that they do McCaffrey. He doesn't have the ceiling that McCaffrey has, but that volume gives him a very high floor. $6,400. going up against a bad Atlanta defense this week. Yeah, I just think it's the third running back spot where you're left with a lot of different choices and you can kind of talk yourself in or out of any of those guys. I think the other player who's in consideration,

depending on the health of Rahim Moster, who is tracking more towards playing this week, would be Jerich McKinnon. I mean, he's under 6K at 5,800. San Francisco should have little difficulty in that matchup against Miami. He has that active role in the passing game, and you're talking about a team with implied total, at least close to 30. It's 29 and change right now. So I think McKinnon kind of fits into that

flex role as well, especially because of the way he's used in that passing game. Yeah, I like that call. I like that call on McKinnon. We will have to watch, though, on Rahim Mostert, return to practice on Thursday. And that would be a pretty easy binary, straight from like to not like, if Rahim Mostert is able to play for the 49ers on Sunday. wide receivers now up on the docket here Derek and again another week of flat pricing it's so i feel like we haven't seen back-to-back weeks like this at both the running back and wide receiver positions in a long time maybe ever there is just so few guys who you're going to have to pay up for so many guys in the let's say the 66600 down to 56700

range you could easily talk yourself into how do you think you best attack that this week I think I'm going a little high with the receiver spending, at least compared to a normal week. And the player that I think is fascinating is D'Andre Hopkins because he was a disappointment a week ago coming off to the injury. I like this matchup against the Jets. The projected roster rate, according to Roto Grinders, is hovering right around 10%, which is very low for a guy that gets the volume that D'Andre Hopkins gets. You look at the implied total. It's at 27 right now. So it kind of feels like everybody soured a little bit on this Arizona offense, and that's exactly the time to buy in.

I think with so many of the top receivers not being on the slate or not being available due to injury, especially, that makes me even more interested in Hopkins. So I love the way this lines up. I think for good reason, Amari Cooper is going to be popular. Kelvin Ridley is going to be popular. Pay the extra 400 bucks or 500 bucks to upgrade from them and lock in D'Andre Hopkins.

It seems like common. sent sort of advice, but I just love what I'm seeing in terms of that projection right now. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. People are obviously a little bit scared off of Hopkins after last week, but let's remember, didn't practice at all last week and then played the game. And sure, it was not a very productive game by DeAndre Hopkins standards, but he was still out there for his normal compliment of snaps, his normal compliment of routes run. So he was fine. This week, Thursday, he's already practicing. So that gives you a pretty good indication of where his health stands. And I think people are still being a little bit scared off of that.

I like your call by going after D'Anre Hopkins. Someone who I said I'm going to keep picking him into my lineups so long as he remains as cheap as he was, finally has been bumped up. I still can't get away from him. It's C.D. Lam, $6,000. Everything we're seeing from the Dallas offense. Everything we're seeing from the Dallas defense.

CD, I think, clearly is the number two receiver in that offense, comfortably behind a Murray Cooper, but just as comfortably ahead of Michael Gallup, five grabs, 79 yards, and a couple of touchdowns last week. He's someone I like, and I think we can find a lot of nice guys in that range. One of them who I had in mind is actually someone who you wrote down, and a lot of people I think are going to be scared off. This is just my speculation of Terry McLaren this week because of that quarterback change,

going from Duane Haskins to Kyle Allen. And I really do think that Terry McLaren is someone who matchup doesn't matter. QB, so long as it's someone who's going to be out there flailing around doesn't matter. Terry McLaren is so good that I trust him in pretty much every season. situation. Right. So I think at this point, Terry McLauran has already proven that he's basically quarterback proof. The price hasn't gone through the roof yet, even though it continues to tick up. It's the first week this season. He's been over 6,000, but 6,100 is very reasonable. The concentration of targets he gets to the air in this offense is really good. The Rams should score plenty of points

against Washington, so attempts should be there. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Kyle Allen it plays the entire game and throws the ball fewer than 30 times. So if Kyle Allen throws it 30 times, at least eight, if not more of those targets are going to Terry McLaren. And he can do a lot of damage with eight plus targets. So it's really ticking all the boxes. And it kind of brings us back to quarterback for a second with Kyle Allen being priced at 4,100, which is much lower than Dwayne Haskins was being priced that week in and week out. Look, I think the Washington football team is wrong for making this change. I think this is bad for Dwayne Haskins development.

but that's not the topic here. The topic is, are you getting enough of a discount on Kyle Allen with all of his limitations to basically punt at quarterback this week, hope for a couple of TDs, maybe get 15, 16 draft kings points, and then load up elsewhere because, A, no one likes Kyle Allen, so he's going to be low-owned in tournaments, and B, you can pair him with a really good player in Terry McLaurin, maybe even go to the cheap tight end as well,

make a gross stack, and then load up with everything else and have leverage on the field. This is, again, a big field tournament strategy. This is not a baseline strategy. This is not the first lineup you make unless you're just going full Charlie bucket and your only lineup is the ugliest lineup you can build in the biggest field tournament you can find. But you at least think about these things when you see prices drop off as much as the price is down on Kyle Allen this week. Yeah, I mean, I think there's something to be said there for big field tournaments.

The problem is I don't think you have enough options to spend up, right? I mean, if this was a week where we were talking about trying to jam a $9,500 Christian McCaffery and an $8,000 Alvin Camara into the same lineup, then I think the Kyle Allen $4,100 play makes a little bit more sense. But I just think you would have trouble spending all your money. I think that's what it comes down to that there just aren't enough expensive guys to pair with Kyle Allen to make it worth it to go that route at the quarterback position. Fair point. I mean, and I think even within that offense, you got a couple secondary options who are banged up, right? Steven Sims has been dealing with a toe injury.

Dantrell Inman, limited in practice of the foot injury. I think he's probably the number two receiver right now, but again, I think the tight end spot would be where you get that second pass catcher. Maybe you go Logan Thomas in combination with McLaurin. You're right. There's not a lot to spend up on, so you may end up with a lot of money left over, like a lot more than you want to have left over, and you just might have too low of a projections floor to pull it off.

But it's on my mind. It's something I'm going to at least attempt to do for, one big field tournament entry. You mentioned DJ Chark earlier as a nice guy to stack with Gardner Minchoo. Love that play. It's one of my favorite plays of the week, putting Minchew and Chark together. In some spots, I could also see pivoting off of Chark and going to Loviska Chalte, $4,500.

You still get the pairing with the quarterback. You get it at a $2,000 discount. So that certainly nice, although Chalt limited in practice again, although he was limited all week last week and had his best game of the season, catching five passes for 86 yards. So I don't think we have to worry just yet. about Chanel not being out there for the Jaguars, for Gardner Minshu.

And again, this wide receiver position gives us some nice options to spend up at the $5,000 or a less range. I also like Darius Slayton as the number one receiver for the Giants in a plus matchup with the Cowboys. At $4,800 is the one giant that I would talk myself into a little bit after the little rant I went on about the Giants earlier. Anyone in this range that you're looking at in getting into the lineups? Yeah, I think Slayton is perfectly fine for cash, especially.

with the volume we're expecting the Giants to have through the air this week. I think if you're thinking about tournaments and you want to be a little bit contrarian with the Giants' pass catchers, there's not that much of a usage difference between Slaten and Golden Tate. I mean, you're getting about six targets a game from Tate right now. He's a few hundred dollars cheaper and you're still getting that great matchup against the Dallas defense. So I would consider Tate a cheaper pivot if you still want exposure to that game, but you don't

necessarily want to be on the chalk with Darius Slayton. But I think he's chalk for good reason. Most of the sub 5K receivers to me are just tournament-type guys at this point. I think James Washington's a little bit interesting. The Steelers-Eagles matchup falls into the low over-under total, kind of a slog sort of game, so people are really staying away from that one. At the end of the day, if you're looking for a different sort of big field tournament build, it's a lot different than going down to the Washington football stack I just described,

but you could do something with Rathusberger, Juju, James Washington, and maybe Eric Ebron, and you're going to have extremely low, rostered guys up and down the roster and you will spend your entire budget because Rathusberger is not cheap. You know, James Washington is not a giveaway, but you are getting some big play potential and maybe you find the game where there's a bit more offense than expected, right? That's another way to think about taking down a tournament. Find the game that Vegas is wrong about and stack that game. Let's move on over to the tight end position. This is a week that I'm going to be spending up a tight end. I almost never want to do it, but we've talked about the cheap

available backs. We've talked about the cheap available wide receivers. even though we like Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, guys like that and said we could spend up at the quarterback position. We like those cheap options there, too. I hate the cheap options at tight end. And that leads me to some of the expensive guys here. I think that I like George Kittle at $6,600 better than any of the tight end or better than any of the 6,600 and above, even like 6,200 and above wide receivers. I really, really am into George Kittle this week at the tight end position. Yeah, I think paying up, unless you're going to go to like Evan Ingram as your cheap giant at sub 5K,

I mean, look, I think based on the stuff I'm looking at at roto grinders, he's probably going to be the highest rostered tight end this week. Come on. Is Nando everyone over now? Look at the targets week to week. 10, 5, 8, and 7. Under 5K, not really a tight end, obviously, more of a receiver just masquerading as one. I think it ticks the boxes to be the value player of the week, right?

I can at least talk myself into understanding why people are chasing him. It makes sense. But I think you're right. I think this is the week to pay up for one of Kiddell, Kelsey, or Mark Andrews. I would caution again, just keep an eye on the Ravens quarterback situation in the event that the stuff that's kept Lamar Jackson out of practice the first couple of days. If that keeps him out of Sunday's game, that doesn't seem like the case at the time of this recording, maybe that keeps you away from Mark Andrews, at least in cash games with the uncertainty of having RG3 potentially starting a quarterback. And also watch out for Mark Andrews a little bit.

He popped up on the injury report after a normal practice day. Wednesday with a thigh issue on Thursday. So just keep an eye on Mark Andrews. We got used to this with him last year, right? Limited, limited, limited. Plays and plays well Sunday. Just keep an eye on it as practice sports come out on Friday. Let's move it over to defense and wrap things up here, DVR.

Yeah, I think this might be a decent enough week to spend up on defense, too, if you really want to. It's not something I'm into. Like I referenced earlier, the Chiefs are my favorite play. $3,500 a game where they're favored by nearly two touchdowns. They can get after the quarterback. that Raiders defense is not going to slow them down a bit, so I think they're really going to be able to unleash the defense.

I think we're going to see an aggressive game from Steve Spagnolo and the Chief's defense, and I think they can get at Derek Carr. Derek Carr, not a quarterback who is going to make too many things happen with his legs. If you can get to him, disrupt him, you can get a lot of sacks, force some turnovers, even though 3,500 is more than I typically want to spend at defense, I think the chiefs are a nice way to go this week, and if you do pay down at some of the positions where we're used to paying up, you might have a few extra hundred bucks to spend at this defense spot.

Yeah, I would say that's a great call in terms of a matchup that you like with a defense that you actually believe in in that spot. My general approach all season has been punt, punt, punt, and yet again, I'm looking at the Texans at home and wondering if this could be a week where maybe just having Bill O'Brien gone, they wake up a little bit, hearing a little more about the altercation with J.J. Watt and getting a sense that maybe O'Brien's departure does actually provide a short-term lift. I mean, it's still the same team, right? It's not going to completely change their fortunes, but I think you can get a temporary boost from making a coaching change the way they did.

And they, you know, they have a little bit of a pass rush, right? They had three sacks last week, two against the Steelers in week three, four against the Ravens in week two. If they pull off that sort of feat, three sacks and find a way to a defensive touchdown, you know, that works fine at 2,600. So I love the Chiefs if you have the money. If you don't, I'm just looking for a team at home that can give you some sacks and maybe get lucky with that defensive touchdown. Let me throw one more thing out there really quickly and then we can say goodbye here. The Brown's of 2,700. Am I crazy for thinking that the Colts offense is a little overvalued because they're a good team? Like Philip Rivers is always someone who I am comfortable going after in DFS, meaning

attacking with the defense that he's playing because he's mistake prone. He's not. getting away from anyone. If you get to Philip Rivers, you take him down, you force an interception, you do something good for the defense. I feel like the Browns price is artificially driven down because the Colts are road favorites in Cleveland. And that is another defense that I like to go after. I really see myself, if I've got the money going to KC, if I don't, I'm very happy going after the Browns thinking that they can wreak some havoc on Philip Rivers. Yeah, I think the other thing that's maybe keeping people away from the Browns a little bit is just the fact they've been giving up a lot of points

last couple of weeks. I mean, obviously Dallas came back last week and at least made it somewhat respectable. Even week two, there was a shootout against the Bengals. I mean, giving up 30 to the Bengals is not something that makes your defense stand out from a fantasy perspective, but you are getting sacks, you are getting some turnovers

as well, three picks against Washington week three, one last week against Dallas and at least three sacks each of the last three weeks. So if you got that extra couple hundred bucks, I do like the Browns more than the Texans, but I guess I'm setting the Texans as my floor. You can't go any lower than Houston this week if you're trying to save money on your defense. All right. That's going to do it for the DFS portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football

Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Dvr, thanks for doing this man. Have a good weekend. Yeah, good luck in week five, everybody. Okay, part two of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show for Friday, October 9th. It is our gambling portion of the show. And to do that, you know who's up next. it is Vic Tafer. Vic, of course, one of our Raiders, beatwriters. Also can check him out all over the NFL section, including with Vicks. Vic, how you doing today?

I'm all right. I'm all right. Still scuffling with these picks, but I'll bounce back at some point. Hey, this is the week to do it, I think. Let's look back really quickly at week four. You went two and three. The good news may be here for us is that your two wins were our two consensus picks. So that evened our consensus record on the season at three and three.

That was New Orleans and Green Bay, and then the loss is Houston, Miami, and Washington. I went four in one. I had New Orleans and Green Bay, of course, also Baltimore and Buffalo. My loss, I guess, you know, was the one I said I was most confident in, was the one loss I took, the Chicago Bears just looking absolutely dreadful on offense in Nick Foll's first start of the season. I took the lead in our head-to-head. We hadn't had many head-to-heads.

We still haven't had many head-to-hads. Only two to date. The first one was a push a couple of weeks ago. Last week you were on Washington. I was on Buffalo and squeaked that, or on Baltimore, excuse me, and squeaked that one out just barely. So I am now up 101 in our head-to-head contests here. So any thing that you're taking forward from week four, maybe actually, you know what?

Here's how I'm going to start this, actually, now that I think about it. You've been on Houston for a couple of weeks, expecting a bounce back. They were a loss for you last week. That did not go so well, Bill O'Brien, of course, getting the axe, all sorts of tumult in Houston. A fight between Bill O'Brien and J.J. Watt that pushed things over the edge, finally, for Bill O'Brien. And we can use that to jump into our week five lines. We will start with that Texans game, Texans minus six against the Jaguars, Vic. We are both getting as far away as we can from this Houston-Sexins situation.

We are both on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Give me your reasoning as to why you are taking the Jaguars. Well, I think just not very good. I think I've watched most of the games this year. I think one of the bigger problems, I know everyone's talking about the offense, but the defense can't stop the run. And the Jags, they can't run the ball.

So I know you're supposed to think about the fire to coach. Here's a fresh star. Teams are going to show that you have some pride. But I'm not buying any of that. I'm off the Titans. I think the Jags will not only cover, but win the game outright. it is right off the bat the upset pick from Vic Jaguars winning this game outright in Houston.

This line just feels like fiscally high to me. And that's part of the reason why I'm a little bit scared of backing the Jaguars because if you've watched these teams this season, you have seen a Houston team that, you know, you can't just pin it on bad matchups any longer after what we saw in week four. Even the cops here in Chicago think that we need to arrest this Houston team for poor play after what we've seen from them through four. weeks of the season. And Jacksonville, on the other hand, has, you know, they're not going to be winning any Super Bowls. They're probably not going to be competing for a playoff spot, but they've been a little bit more competitive than people expecting them to be coming into the season. The upset

victory over Indy back in week one, they are two and two against the spread so far this season. And so to see them catching six, nearly a touchdown, I know it's on the road, but just two teams that doesn't quite measure up when you look at the line and you look at the way that they've played this season. And that always actually scares me. But I agree with you. It feels like a good spot for Jacksonville, not only because you're getting the six, but because something that Jacksonville has done very effectively this year, running the ball with James Robinson has really been a weak point for this Houston defense. Gardner Minshu, he's going to take some plays away from you as your own team, but he also makes a lot of plays. I feel like he's not quite getting the respect

he deserves. We've seen a couple of big games from him through the air this season. Three multi-touchdown games, two of those three touchdowns and two 300-yard games from Gardner Minshue. So I think this Jacksonville offense can get going. And again, we are not talking about having them to win outright, even though you're making that pick. We're getting nearly a touchdown in this game to back the Jaguars. So I feel pretty good about that. I do think it's going to be a high-scoring game. This one comes with an over-under of 54 and a half, and I think it could play to that script. But I really do like the Jaguars. I'm not afraid of the Houston offense finding its legs enough in game one without Bill O'Brien to run away in this one. Are you concerned

it all about us having a blind spot with this Houston offense? No, I think they could definitely score some points, but I think the Jags will too. I just, I think you mentioned the line. I think the reason it's so high is because you're supposed to think, you know, Bill O'Brien's an awful coach and they hate him. Now he's gone. They'll be relieved. But he actually, I mean, probably it was a little underrated. I mean, they made the playoffs four to five years, so he's doing something right. So I think obviously he had some issues, but I don't think he's a It's so reason they've been so bad. Yeah, this could definitely be more about Bill O'Brien, the GM and Bill O'Brien, the

people manager, rather than Bill O'Brien, the football coach, with why he is no longer employed by the Houston Texans. Let's jump back to the top of the list here. This was a game that was in the middle of our Sunday early slate, but just felt too right to start things with that instead of anywhere else. The first game that we actually have listed is between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. Falcons are just laying two points at home to the Panthers in this game.

54 is the over-under. I think if I told you, Vic, a month ago, that one of these teams is going to be two-and-two and one of them would be 0-4. You would say, sure, that makes sense. Falcons 2-and-2. Panthers O'N-4. That, of course, not the case. The Panthers are the two-and-two team here.

The Falcons sitting at 0-N-4 is still looking for their first win of the season. You like them to get that here this week and cover the two points. Yeah, I think there's some value. Like you said, before the season, if you set this line ahead of time, it's probably Falcons minus six or seven probably. I think they've had a rough start. But talent-wise, I think they're probably just as good. It's probably better than the Panthers are.

So I think Matt Ryan definitely takes care of business at home and they get their first win. Is this something you would feel like you maybe would want to change if we get some bad news on Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley. Both did practice on Thursday in limited fashion. If one or both of those guys were out, would you want to back off this play? Nah, I think I'm in those guys, once I fire it, I fire it. So I think, I think it's more of a, maybe a mental thing. I just think that, I think the other guys who, those guys can't play,

they have enough depth at receiver. Russell Gage is not bad. The running backs get involved. I think they'll be okay at the tight end. So I just think it's, Panthers are probably not as good as their Tunez record indicates. And the Falcons, you know, they have some horrible collapses, but probably not as bad as O and 4 indicates.

Yeah, Olamides, the K has shown well to in one, once Julio Jones did not come back last week in the second half, looking like a guy who could step in and be a serviceable enough replacement where that offense wouldn't totally fall apart. I actually leaned toward the Panthers in this when I first saw it, but this was one that was really way too fishy for me. As poorly as the Falcons I've played, they have these high-profile collapses.

Dan Quinn entering the season on the hot seat. Probably saved his job with the team's hot finish last year, right? He was on the hot seat last year. They finish hot, and he's still on the hot seat to start this year. They start off O and 4, these horrible collapses. Meanwhile, Carolina on the other side, impressing people beyond where they thought they were going to be, especially with Christian McCaffrey, injured. And it's still just a two-point line.

Way too fishy to me. That makes me actually like Atlanta, but not enough to back them as one of my top five picks. This one, however, our next game here, I will take as one of my top five picks to pair up with the Jaguars. It's my second pick. It is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are laying 12 and a half against the Las Vegas Raiders. 55 is the over under. Before I give my reasoning as to why I'm on the Chiefs,

tell me, of course, you've got two eyes on the Raiders all day, every day. Am I crazy for liking this? Am I feeling fine, but not one that you would take? Is this something that you think you are in step with? I mean, where are you? Where should I be feeling about the Raiders going up against the Chiefs in this one? Yeah, I make all the picks for my column, and I pick the Chiefs. I think the Raiders have good offense.

They're averaging 28 points a game. this line tells you that they think the Chiefs are going to score 41, which is probably true. I think the Raiders defense, they don't pressure the quarterback. They don't get turnover. So that's not a good combination against Patrick Mahomes. So I think the Chiefs will score at will pretty much. Yeah, it's a horrible combination against Patrick Mahomes, right? And that's what this comes down to for me.

I talked about it. It was a couple of weeks ago, right, when the Chiefs and Ravens got together, and I said, you give Patrick Mahomes a field goal. I want Patrick Mahomes. I really don't care who the opponent is. As long as it's a team that is not even close to being in the conversation with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is getting less than two touchdowns or giving less than two touchdowns, excuse me, I feel pretty good that he's going to be able to put up enough points to cover that.

This is a team that I feel like we have to assume is getting the 30 every single time they take the field. And of course, it's not always going to work out that way. We saw them held the 20 in regulation against the Chargers just a couple of weeks ago. But with the way this offense is going, you have to, I think, just assume 30, 34 and then see where things go from there. And I think if they can get to that mark, they're going to cover the 12 and a half against the Raiders this week. So give me the chiefs locking them in as one of my five plays for Week 5. We've got a couple of games that have some COVID-19 concerns. The big one, of course, is Bills at Titan.

Sounds like this game is definitely not going to be played on Sunday. Maybe is not played at all. Consensus line right now is Bill's minus one with an over under a 49, but who knows if this game gets played, we'll skip past it. Patriots and Broncos, that one has a much better chance of being played, even though a second high profile positive test from New England came earlier this week with Stefan Gilmore. But that one has some quick concerns on what the line's going to be with Cam Newton, maybe not playing, maybe being able to play if this game does get played.

The consensus line is Patriots minus five, but again, let's just skip past it. you and I are sitting here on Thursday afternoon recording this episode, comfortably before this game would be played. We can't really have any sort of good insight into this. We don't know if it's going to happen, who the quarterback's going to be for New England, if it does happen. So we'll just move past those two games with COVID-19 concerns. On to Rams in Washington to take on the Washington footballs.

The Rams are touchdown favorites, seven on the dot, and over under of 45. Both of us taking a pass as to putting it in our five. You know, if Dwayne Haskins was still getting the start, Vic, I would not only lean strongly toward Washington, I would maybe want to put it in my five. But with Kyle Allen getting the start, I just don't want to touch this game. I was unimpressed with what I saw from the Rams against the Giants last week. And I just can't figure out what's going on in Washington, right? They say just a week ago, we need to see some improvement out of Dwayne Haskins. The guy goes out there, horrible matchup against Baltimore. We all know the weapons that he has at his disposal. Fine, but nothing special. Complete 71% of his pass. throws for more than 300 yards and then gets benched? I mean, what is, what's going on with this Washington football team? Yeah, it's definitely bizarre. Obviously, he told him, don't turn the ball over, and he didn't, and he still lost his job.

So I think Ronald Rivera has mind made up way back when. I mean, Allen's this guy from Carolina. I'm not sure why he likes Allen so much. I don't see it. So, yeah, I'm with you. I would definitely lean towards the Rams if I was taking a side here. I mean, do they not remember Ron Rivera and Scott Turner benching, um, benching Kyle Allen for Will Greer, like less than a year again?

They forgot apparently. I mean, I mean, maybe Rivera, I can't remember. Maybe Rivera had already been let go at that point, but Scott Turner was there. And they just, I mean, they just went through this. They just did this. And now they're benching Haskins, who did show improvement, I thought. And I don't know, I can't figure it out. And that's what makes me stay away from this game.

I really, if it were seven, even if it were five and a half with Haskins as the starter, I think I would like Washington in this game. But I just can't touch it with the changes that we've seen from that. team and what we saw or didn't see as the case may be from the Rams against the Giants a week ago. So we're staying away from that game. Next game in the early slate is the Arizona Cardinals in New York and New Jersey to take on the Jets. Cardinals are seven point favorites. A lot of seven point and bigger favorites this week.

47 is the over under another game that we are both staying away from. Do you have a lean in this game at all? One that maybe made you close to picking it or was it one that was easy to stay away from? Well, I was going to say I saw my sheet that there was a mistake. I didn't see a name next to the Cardinals. That's a good point. I am. Can I, can you like, if you go out onto a track and do a lap in reverse, can you, like, take away any bad juju from a victory lap taken prematurely?

Because I think I might need to do that on these Arizona generals. He jumped off the ship. I'm not jumping off the ship. I'm still on the ship. I'm still on the ship, but I can't. After what we've seen the last two weeks, I can't in good conscience. back them even against the Jets team that might be the worst in the league. Even against Joe Flacco?

Wow. Even against Joe Flacco as the starter for the day. You know, Joe Flacco, he is, it's sort of like the Mitch Trubisky thing, where someone goes from bad starter to premium backup, just like that, right? I mean, Joe Flacco shouldn't be starting for a team, but is he the 33rd best quarterback in the NFL? He might be, right? So I don't know how much, like, how much do the Jets really lose going from Darnold to Flacco?

I don't know. I'm not sure Joe Flacco can still get done. But yeah, you're right. I think both sides are really hard to. I mean, the Cardinals laying seven on the road seems awful. And taking Joe Flacco seems awful. So I think there's no good deal there. There's no, no good answer, no good answer to get behind in this game. And maybe that tells you how far the Cardinals have fallen since the heights of beating the 49ers back in week one. Next game, we do have a pick. It is you. It is the Battle of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia, making the train. rip west to take on the Steelers. Again, another game where we have a home team favored by seven points. 44 and a half is the over under. I like your pick here. I am not also making it one of my five, but in pools where I have to pick them all.

I am also picking the Eagles. What has you on Philly this week? That's a big win last week into Niners. I think they showed some moxie and definitely some kind of, it could be a building block for them. I think there's a good spot for it. I think the Steelers are a little overrated. I know they're coming off a buy, and people always say Big Ben's great. off of bi-a-week. But I think the Eagles are talent-wise, probably not too far off from the Steelers.

I think they'll stay close. In fact, they might actually win the game outright. But I'm just going with the plus seven for now. But I like their win last week and then they built off it and it's a good spot for them. Surprised at seven. Just feels too big. It feels way too big. I think the Steelers should be favored. I think the Steelers are going to win. I think the Steelers should be favored. You know, not like even just the conventional three. I would have set this line somewhere around five, five and a half. And I think that would have been fair. But seven just feels like a little much after what Philly showed last week against San Francisco. And say what you will about the fact that it's against a San Francisco team that is obviously

forever banged up with some of the season ending injuries they've had on the defensive side of the ball. They were playing Nick Mullins in that game and made the change to CJ Bethard late. But still like what we saw from Philadelphia, definitely their best game of the season to date and looked like they corrected some of the issues that had dogged them through the first three games of the season. So I agree with you. I feel good about the Eagles.

Not good enough, however, to put them. in my top five here. It'll be interesting to see what the Philadelphia offense is capable of doing against a Pittsburgh defense that maybe is just as good as that San Francisco defense when it is full strength, obviously. We've got a full strength defense in Pittsburgh to deal with. Last game of the early slate, it is in the AFC North Ravens and Bengals in Baltimore. Ravens favored here by 1351 is our over under.

Vic, I am making a pick here, and I am doing it on the dollar. Oh, give me these Cincinnati Bengals catching 13 points in Baltimore. Way too many points, I think, here, Vic, just way, way too many points. This Baltimore, or excuse me, Cincinnati offense can put some points on the board. I mean, they've done it pretty much every single week so far this season, save week one against the Chargers since Joe Burroughs first start after having no real training camp whatsoever. And you've seen this offense slowly but surely get a little bit better. I think they are coming to grips with what A.J. Green is at this point of his career we have seen now,

two big games, two involved games for T. Higgins. So you've got T. Higgins with Tyler Boyd. They finally got Joe Mixen involved in the passing game last week. Six targets in that game. He ran 29 routes versus just three routes run for Giovanni Bernard. They seem to be finding their stride with what they can do offensively. I don't think they're going to come close to winning this game. But with as good as that offense is and the fact that Zach Taylor is not afraid to let Joe Burrow rip it and he'll throw it 50, 60 times if he has to, I think they can easily stay within two touchdowns. I think this could be a game where Baltimore basically keeps the Bengals at arm's length. Maybe even the Bengals never have the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead,

but they are never more than two touchdowns down. And I think they keep this game within 13 points. I really like the over in this game. I think we're going to see both teams put some points on the board. This has all the makings of like a 34 to 27 game for me. And I just think this Bengals offense is too effective and too fearless to be thought of as a team that's just going to get completely blown away, even by a team as good as the Ravens. Yeah, I mean, Joe Burroughs been an ATS money machine.

I definitely like your thinking here. But my problem with this game is I think it's a good spot for the Ravens' offense to kind of get their stride back. I think they'll be able to run the ball. I think Marquis Brown has a breakout game this week when it gets back on track or people thought it was at the beginning of the year. So I think I put a lot of points on the board, which is bad for Burrow because then I think the Ravens would be going after them every play.

I think that's going to be a tough spot for the rookie. So I think the Ravens kind of run away and hide a little bit. It would be too much room for the backdoor cover. So I would lean towards the Ravens here. ATS machine, as you mentioned, the Bengals are three and one. They are among a number of teams that are three and one against the spread this season. Only teams that are 4 and 0 against the spread this year, Green Bay and Seattle, both teams that are 4 and 0 for real as well.

Always a good tool to use, right? It tells you the good teams that are great and the bad teams that are maybe a little bit better than their actual record shows you. I think the Bengals fall into that group. We differ a little bit there. I am backing the Bengals for real, though, when we talk about our five top picks. Let's move into the afternoon slate, just three games in that afternoon slate this weekend. First one kicking off at 4.05 Eastern Time, 49ers minus 9 at home against the Miami Dolphins.

49 and a half is the over under here. I lean toward Miami. It's not one that I want to back, though. could get some good injury news for San Francisco this week. We had Jimmy Garapolo practicing once again on Thursday. Rahim Moster returned to practice on Thursday. Too many variables for me to back the 49ers at all. And just don't trust Miami enough to make them one of my five picks,

even though it's the direction I lean. Where do you stand on this one? Yeah, Miami let me down last week, so I can't go back on them. I think it's a tough number, but the Niners, the Jim G's back. I think if it's Magic probably has three or four picks, so I think it should be an easy cover for the Niners. but I wouldn't feel that strongly about it to put it on my top five. Well, here's one you do have in your top five.

You talk about me and the Cardinals, and with good reason. You just can't, you can't quit these Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys minus nine and a half against the Giants. 54 over under. You are back on the Cowboys. Some sort of like masochistic thing that you are keep going back to the Cowboys, or is this just the Giants are terrible? I took it off last week.

I had the Browns. I took a week off from the Cowboys last week. That was nice. That's right. That's right. It's right. It's very refreshing. I enjoyed it a lot, but their offense is just too good.

I think the Giants are just not a good team. So I think, again, if this spread, like before the season starts, it's probably a lot higher, I think the offense should be able to run away. I can't see D'Alon Jones a match in Dak Prescott. So I think it's a big number, but I think it's a big win for the Cowboys. I think they'll be getting their mojo back a little bit this week. Their offenses looked so bad since Seekwon went down against the Bears. And they were going to be an offense that was going to sputter from time to time,

even with Sequin on the field, but you've got no Sequin, of course. You still have no Sterling Shepard for that team. I mean, they can't run the ball. Devante Freeman is fine, but he's not someone who is going to really put a team on its back, put an offense on his back, and I just don't see how they slow down Dallas either. So give me the Cowboys. I'm not making it one of my five, but I agree with you in that. This is a game that Dallas's offense is so clearly the single dominant unit in this game.

When you look at both teams' offenses and defenses, that they really have no business letting this game get close as bad as their defense can be. And hey, Layton Van deresh put on the pads on Thursday. So unlikely to play this week, but a good sign that maybe he's getting closer to returning to the field and giving some semblance of respect to that Dallas defense. Last game before we get to our prime time slate, Colts and Browns in Cleveland. The Colts, small favorites here, one and a half points. 46 is the over-under.

Vic, I guess there's something here to both of us not buying this Colts defense completely because we are both on the Cleveland Browns. I'll let you take it away first. Why do you like the Browns this week? Yeah, I think Baker Meufolds guy's Mojo back a little bit. I keep saying mojo, because of swagger back a little bit. I think the Colts defense the last three weeks, they've been good, but they've played some pretty bad teams, so I'm not sure I'm really sold that the defense is that good.

And as we all know, I'm not a big Rivers guy. Rivers has not been very good this year despite the record. So I think I've been wrong every week again. I think I had them the week they lost, the Colts. I've been against them the three weeks they've won. So I believe them 0 and 4, ATS against the Colts. So I'm freaking due. So this is definitely one of those things we see you do and you cash in big.

Playing with fire going back to the well with picking a game that involves the Indianapolis Colts. I think one point that is well taken. Two points, in fact, that are well taken. The first. This defense is great. I do think this is a very good defense. It's a legit defense. It's one that could potentially carry the Colts to a division title.

But when you look at how dominant they've been in recent weeks, the red thread that runs between the offenses they've played is immobile quarterbacks, right? They totally shut down the Vikings, Kirk Cousins. They totally shut down the Bears, Nick Foles. You go back to week one, quarterback that did get them, Gardner Minchew. Baker Mayfield is going to be able to get away from their pressure if and when he needs to. And I think that this is just purely a better offense that they're facing this week than the one that they faced last week in Chicago.

And then secondarily, they've been able to hide Phillip Rivers, frankly, this season, right? they've been able to totally win games, dominate games with defense. I mean, you do what you do, what this team did against Chicago last week, get the ball inside the 10-yard line three times, and come away with field goals on all three of those possessions. More often than not, you're going to lose that game. Thankfully for the Colts, that defense just totally shut down everything Chicago wanted to do. You can't get away with that against an offense like Cleveland. We've really seen this team click since that week one embarrassment at the hands of the Ravens. We've seen, you know, very good offensive performances from the Browns. now three games in a row, and I think they can keep that going even without Nick Chubb, right?

They're the one team in the league that can stand to lose a guy like Nick Chubb and probably not skip a beat whatsoever offensively by being able to plug Kareem Hunt into that spot. So I like the Browns too at just one and a half. Not a surprise that I like the Browns to win this game outright. I'm not going to make that my upset pick because it's only a one and a half point spread, but I do think the Browns win this game outright and move to four and one on the season. One of these teams is going to be four in one. Give me the Cleveland Browns to be the team that does it. Next game on Sunday night football, Seahawks and Vikings, Seahawks seven-point favorites against Minnesota. 57 is the over-under in this one.

And Vic, I am making a pick. Give me the Minnesota Vikings. I think I'm making the Vikings my upset pick. I think it's possible. I don't really think it's going to happen. But the reason I think it's possible and more importantly, the reason why I like the Vikings getting the touchdown is that this is, offense has woken up over the last two weeks. And you can even go back to week one. That was a game that Green Bay totally dominated, was never really in doubt, but Minnesota ended up putting 34 points

on the board. I mean, that offense eventually got going. And now we have seen two really good performances from the offense over the last two weeks. And part of that owes to the newfound presence of Justin Jefferson in the offense. This is a team that over the last few years has always had those two receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs. They trade Stefan Diggs to Buffalo this off season. And we were wondering where they were going to find that offense, that second receiver. They made Justin Jefferson a high priority in the draft and a couple of quiet games to start his career. But the last two games going over 100 yards, Vic, he already is tied for the NFL league lead in catches of 20 plus yards. And he barely played at all the

first two games of the season. He has eight catches all over the last two weeks of 20 yards. They're more. Coincidentally, the guy who he's tied with is Stefan Diggs in Buffalo. I really like what this offense can do now. With Jefferson, with Eelan, with Dalvin Cook, just having another excellent season for this team. I really think that this is a team that now has a true offensive identity that has carried over from last year with Jefferson sliding into that dig spot. Seattle's going to win the game. I do think Seattle's going to win the game, even though Minnesota is my upset pick because I think it's possible. But the Seattle defense has been torched through the air this season. I just don't see how they can possibly suffocate Minnesota's offense enough to the

point that they win this game by more than a touchdown. Love what Russell Wilson's doing. I think this is going to be the highest scoring game of the week. Think that 57 over or under is very fair and reflects that fact. But I think Minnesota keeps this within a touchdown. So I'll take the Vikings. Yeah, I like your logic. I was leaning towards the Cocks because you mentioned Russell Wilson on a mission this year. I think he's a win MVP award. I think he's been incredible. I just think the Vikings defense is not very good. But, yeah, I see your points. I think definitely should be, I can see the Vikings keeping in close.

This will be a good test for the Kirk Cousins' primetime theory, the 12th man, no fans theory, all that stuff gets thrown into this game as well. Of course, Kirk Cousins has struggled mightily playing in prime time, but I do think that that offense is just a little too good for them to get totally blown out by the Seahawks, considering all the defensive issues that they have had. And finally, Monday night football, Saints and Chargers, Saints minus 7 and a half at home against the Chargers. 51 is the over-under. Justin Herbert officially named the starter going forward for this Chargers team by Anthony Lynn on Thursday.

I really want to like the Saints in this game, Vic, and I probably will pick them in pools where I have to pick every single game. Not making them one of my five, though Justin Herbert has had this team very competitive in every single game they've played Kansas City, Tampa Bay. they've played some good teams. They've been competitive. They've lost every game that he has started, but they have not looked hopeless by any stretch of the imagination. Seven and a half, just a little too much. Six and a half, I'm on the Saints.

Seven and a half, a little too much for me. I'm staying away. Yeah, I would lean them to the Saints also. I think that 35 straight points last week. That was definitely a good sign for them. I think Drew Breeze is now totally washed up. So I think it's a tough spot for the Chargers. So I would lean towards the Saints, but yeah, also I can't make them one of my top five.

All right. wrap up our picks and talk some Survivor. Your five. Falcons, Jaguars, Eagles, Cowboys, and Browns. Upset with the Jaguars pulling it off in Houston. My five, Chiefs, Jaguars, Bengals, Browns, and Vikings. My upset pick, the Minnesota Vikings. We've got two consensus picks this week, that being the Jaguars and the Browns, no head-to-head.

So hopefully we're on a streak with these consensus picks, right? We've been two-and-oh on them last week. Hopefully we do another two-and-oh here and move to five and three for our consensus picks on the season. A lot of survivor options this week, Vic. Like I said, we have so many games that have touchdown spreads or bigger. It always makes for fun survivor weeks. There's going to be some carnage because got to figure with all these games, at least one of them, is going to result in an unlikely winner. For me, the top two plays are the obvious two, Kansas City and Baltimore. If I have one of the two of those, that's probably the direction that I'm going in. Which do you like best of

all these teams that we have available to us. I think the Chiefs looks pretty safe, and I also think the Cowboys are pretty safe. Those are two that stand out to me. Yeah, I think the Cowboys are pretty safe, too. If you've already used Kansas City and Baltimore, I feel decent about the Cowboys too. I feel better than decent about the Cowboys.

I feel decent enough about the 49ers. I wouldn't trust the Cardinals going into the New York to take on the Jets. I know the Jets are terrible. Joe Flago starting just have seen too many missteps from Arizona over the last couple of weeks to feel great about them, especially with these other options that are on the board. I think Seattle, the Rams, the Texans, and the Steelers are all going to be popular picks. I want no part of any of those teams. I think those are way too scary. Obviously, you think Houston's too scary. You think Pittsburgh's too scary. You said you could see Philadelphia

winning that game. Seattle or the Rams, either of those ones, that would scare you off of them completely in Survivor? Well, not until you're talking about the Vikings' offense. Now I'm definitely a about Seattle. But, yeah, I think the Cowboys is the one for me, I think. I think that's the one I go with this week. Yeah, that's the, we can call that the official pick of this show here, Dallas Cowboys again, right? Not a bad week to stay away, right? I don't think you want to get too much into saving teams and saving Kansas City and Baltimore.

But in a week where you have so many other teams that are huge favorites, it might be wise to fade them. not because there's the chance of them losing, but because it'll be nice to have teams like that that are going to have many more big spreads where they're favored in their future. So we'll call the Cowboys our official pick of the week. Stay away from Arizona, stay away from Seattle, stay away from Houston, stay away from Pittsburgh.

Don't stay away from this show. However, when we come back to you next week, that's going to wrap things up for the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and athletic football show on this week, 5 Friday. If you are out there listening on iTunes, Spotify, anything like that and you're not yet an athletic subscriber. Get yourself a subscription just $1 a month at theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod.

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