The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 6 DFS plays and picks against the spread

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 6 DFS slate. They discuss ideal running back pairs, a desire to pay up at receiver, and attractive mid-priced quarterbacks.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every Week 6 game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 29:23). Can the Buccaneers possibly slow down the Packers' offense? Can the 49ers get on track against the Rams? Should the Cowboys really be home dogs in Andy Dalton's first start with the team? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast broadcast on our Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast beat and Athletic Football Show Beat. It is Friday. That means we're bringing these two shows. Together, do talk DFS and gambling for week six of the NFL season. I am Michael Bellar. First part of the show focuses on the DFS world. And to do that, Derek Van Riper joins me as he does every single Friday on this episode.

Eric, how you doing? Doing well. I like this slate so much more than I like the week five slate. There's more games to choose from. I think a little more balance in terms of different stacks you can use. So I'm much happier today than I was this time last week. Yeah, it really is not a bad slate at all. A couple of interesting games. I think we talked about this on one of our shows together. Last week was just one of those weeks where all 17 weeks can be loaded with great exciting games. That's just the reality of it. And last week was one of those weeks that even outside of fantasy and DFS and everything, it just didn't feel like it was the most exciting slate. Things change a little bit here in week six, and we are definitely happy about that. Derek, let's just jump right in, and we're going to change things up a little bit here. Instead of spending time talking about overrunners and games with high totals and starting at the quarterback position, we're going to start where we think most people start, certainly where we start and probably where you start when you are building your lineups,

and that is at the running back position. I want to put this to you, Derek, because I felt almost crazy saying this and thinking this to myself, and it gets us into the Falcons and Vikings right off the top, which we should. Derek and I are recording this on Thursday afternoon, so the Falcons Vikings game is a little bit up in the air, as we all woke up to on Thursday morning, more positive tests for the Falcons for COVID-19. So that came in a bit of a holding period. As we are sitting recording this, it sounds as positive as something can for a team having multiple COVID-positive results come, back in. So there's a chance that all this changes. But for the time being, we are treating it as

though Vikings and Falcons will kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. And with that in mind, am I crazy for wanting to fade Alexander Madison? He's $7,200 on Draft Kings. He is the, let's see, second most expensive back on the main slate because the first one who's listed is Christian McCaffrey, he's not playing. The second one is Dalvin Cook. He's not playing. Then you've got Derek Henry and then you've got Alexander Madison and I get it but I just feel like this is a little bit too much like we're treating him like a perfect one-for-one filling for Delvin Cook and I don't think he's quite that player yeah I mean he's got a little more of what looks like the free square treatment in terms of the projected roster rate and I think draft Kings jumped up the price to

7200 and that doesn't make him an automatic play I think the volume should be there I think with the Vikings backfield presumably without Delvin Cook this week you know Madison just kind of of assumes all of the cook touches. I know it's a bad Atlanta defense. It's a situation where the Vikings are at home. So it ticks all of the boxes. But then you start looking at the other running backs. Why wouldn't you just pay an extra hundred for Derek Henry at home against Houston, right? I mean, how much more confidence do you have in Henry's workload and efficiency than you do in Madison's? Like for me, it's not a landslide, but when I see them side by side, it makes me wonder why Derek Henry isn't more popular since it's only a $100 price difference and the projections

are very similar. Yeah, I agree with you completely on that. And I think you could extend that to guys who are even cheaper than them. I mean, you take a couple of spots down the running back price tag rankings. And you see someone like Jonathan Taylor at $6,400. And I know that the volume hasn't been there for him in a way that a lot of us thought it was going to be. But is he really that much worse of a play than Alexander Madison. The Colts are favored by seven and a half at last check here against the Bengals. This Bengals defense was bad to begin with this season. They have experienced multiple injuries up front.

DJ Reeder, Mike Daniels, so you can really run on this Colts defense, or excuse me, on this Bengals defense. I think we're going to see a heavy Jonathan Taylor chalk week, or at least that we should see a heavy Jonathan Taylor chalk week. But with the way that he hasn't been involved in the passing game since Marlon Mac went down, that could be a little bit of a, almost like a, like a steal of a play here if people aren't going to be willing to pay up for him if they would rather invest in Derek Henry or Alexander Madison or someone else who I missed, Aaron Jones, who I do love

also. He's actually more expensive than those guys at $7,600. Yeah, I think with Jones, the question you're wrestling with is how effective will that Bucks run defense be against him specifically? It's a tough match. up on paper. There's no real way around that. But that game should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate. With Aaron Jones, he's got a pretty nice floor in the passing game as well. So you're not really worried about touches. You're only really worried about efficiency. And the Packers' offense has been great to this point in the season. And they had an extra week to prepare. And they're probably going to have Devante Adams back out on the field this week. So it seems like a lot of positive for Jones,

if you're going to pay up for him. He would also kind of be an alternative to someone like Madison. And I think you can look at this slate and say, of the backs in that 7K plus range, you probably don't have to have more than one in your lineup because of guys like Jonathan Taylor. And because of get ready for this, David Montgomery chalk week? I mean, can we do this? Can we actually say this is a good idea? I mean, I understand why people are chasing him. He's under 6K at 5800.

Carolina's run defense is atrocious. and David Montgomery still doesn't really have a lot of competition for carries. The other thing that's changed, of course, since Tariq Cohen has gone down 14 targets in the last two weeks for Montgomery, 10 catches during that span. So he's really taken on a larger role in the passing game. Even if he's not ideally suited for that function, that's how he's being used. So we're talking about a matchup against the second worst run defense in the league just based on yards per carry loud. The Panthers giving up 5.4 yards per carry.

They have allowed eight rushing scores this season. I understand why David Montgomery is chalky. I think it's good chalk this week, Beller. Yeah, I could totally see it. And as we sit here, Leveon Bell is still unsigned. The Bears have been rumored as a possible destination for Levyon Bell. But even if in between us recording this and you listening to this, LaVian Bell has signed with the Bears that it either happened sometime late on Thursday or early on Friday

or sometimes Saturday, depending on when you're listening. The point is too late in the week for Levyon Bell to reaubel to rea. realistically suit up no matter who he signs with. So don't worry about the effect of Bell on wherever team, wherever back he goes just yet. We do have a few interesting cheap guys that both of us have put down here. I think you could maybe take a GPP shot on Dandre Swift just on the blind faith. And I know putting blind faith in the Lions is a really stupid thing to do. But the blind faith that maybe during the by week they used it to get Dianne Swift a little bit more involved.

and they come out of the buy with Swift more active in the offense, just $4,500. I also think there's value in Miles Gaskin. You pretty much need every single touch that Miami gives to its backs to be a worthwhile fantasy investment on that offense. But Miles Gaskin is basically getting that treatment. So at $5,400, he's someone who I do like, you know, looking if we're trying to get three backs in, right, if I'm trying to get Aaron Jones and Jonathan Taylor and a third back is my flex, I think Gaskin and certainly Swift can open that up.

And you've got another interesting guy in here. So maybe some of the cheapest 15, 20 touches you can find in Devante Freeman. Yeah, I mean, I still am not in love with the talent at this stage of his career, but 4,900 is cheap. Look at the usage last week against the Cowboys. 17 carries. I had three targets in the passing game as well. I just think he's underpriced right now. It's a Giants team that's home against the Washington footballs.

If you believe that volume is going to hold up, then I'm. I think you have to strongly consider Freeman as a building block that really unlocks more spending at the wide receiver position or even spending up at tight end this week, which you may have to do. We'll talk about that in just a little bit. Yeah, we'll get to that right here in a second. I just want to ask you one last question at running back before we move on who's the core play? Who's the one guy that if you're building a lineup around a running back? What's that first click that you're making this week? It could be someone we've already talked about, but who is it?

I think it's just Montgomery because of the price in the matchup. 5,800 is just too cheap. If he were like 6,500 or higher, then he wouldn't necessarily be a lock, but that's a nice savings for the volume and the matchup that he has. For me, it's close between Jonathan Taylor and Aaron Jones. I'm going to lean toward Aaron Jones. You mentioned the tough match with the Buccaneers, but no Vita Vaya. He's out for the rest of the season after breaking his leg last week, so I do think that Jones, I just think his floor doesn't get enough respect. We know what his ceiling is, but the guy basically is a walking 20-point put player. So I do think that floor deserves a little bit more respect.

I actually think he should be more than $7,600 already a pretty expensive price on a running back. Let's move over to wide receivers now here. This is where things get interesting. You said it, Derek. This is maybe where you're going to try to be spending up. Who you got your eye on this week? You know, I think everybody likes Kenny Gallaudet, and for good reason, the JAG's secondary is really bad. And Gallaud is good.

Galdet is underpriced. He's going to get plenty of targets. They had extra time to prepare for this game. and the Lions have an implied total of 28 and change. They're among the teams that are a little higher than usual in that regard. You mentioned Miles Gaskin. We were talking about running backs. I mean, the dolphins are expected to put 28 plus up on the Jets.

Of course, we're talking about the spread with the over-under, kind of coming up with those numbers that way. And this is something I've seen echoed on DFS Twitter in the last 48 hours or so. But A.J. Brown at 5600. I mean, I didn't necessarily know what to expect for him Tuesday night in his first game back off of. the bone bruise in his knee, but having now seen what he was able to do and how he was used, that is a free square wide receiver.

I mean, I think you've got two guys right at the top who are going to be very popular for good reason. For cash game lineups, especially, I have a hard time steering away from both of them. I think you kind of want to lock them in right away. And if you're playing Montgomery and one of Taylor or Madison with a combination of those two receivers as your base, you still have a decent amount of money to play with as you fill up the rest of your lineup. Yeah, it really is true. I wish I could show everyone our little show sheet here because I just wrote under wide receivers under my notes, AJ Brown's price is off. It's as simple as that. This is not someone who should be $5,600, especially after what we saw from him on Tuesday. I would have thought that him coming back from an injury, putting him at $5,600 for that game against the bills. That would be fair because he's A.J. Brown, but we're not exactly sure what to expect. Bone bruise has been out since week one. All the issues with the Titans getting their schedule and moved around. that would have felt fair. But after he did what he did in that game, I mean, that price should be

at least $1,000 more. So AJ Brown for me, he's going to be widely owned. I don't care. Feels like you have to do that to at least keep up with everyone. And that could be a huge payoff at $5,600. Totally with you on Gala Day. If you do want to get crazy at this spot, if you do want to spend up in a big way and you are on board with maybe fading Madison, I think you could stack Calvin Ridley and Adam Phelan and play that correlation with those two teams going back. back and forth with one another. Those are two teams that have thrown the ball quite a bit this year. There are two teams who have thrown the ball effectively, whose defenses have not really done much to stop other teams from throwing the ball. So playing Ridley and Thielen off of one another works.

And you get a little bit of a breath from Thielen, a sigh of, or excuse me, from Ridley, a side of relief. You know, we have seen him struggle at times without Julio Jones. So to see him go out, not have Jones out there taking some attention last week, catching eight balls for 136 yards, makes you feel good about him being a wide receiver one in his own right. Right. And I think if you're going to go with Thielen, you're probably not using Alexander Madison in that same lineup. So I think it's a good way to get exposure to a game that should be a shootout between two teams with defenses that have been much more bad than good to this point in the season. I trust both of those offenses to move the ball effectively. So the key there is you're talking about having two receivers in your lineup over 7K. So you're going

to save a little money at running back, whether that's going down to the Montgomery chalk, maybe making Taylor your most expensive back or throwing in Devante Freeman, who I talked about earlier. You're going to save somewhere if you're going to squeeze in those two 7K receivers, but I do like putting those guys together in the same lineup. And then you might have to use one at flex, or that means you're going to be foreclosing on an opportunity to have both Goliday and A.J. Brown guys who are looking almost like

cash game musts, given their matchup and their price tags this week. How about to the two guys who surprised us a week ago, Chase Claypool and Travis Fulgum. Do either one of those guys jump out at you with someone who you really want to have in your lineups this week? It's wild, right? I mean, Fulgum had 13 targets in that game.

Claypool, of course, with the four TDs, just looking like the next great Steelers receiver already. And I think of the two, I don't really love throwing anybody out there against the Ravens defense. So, like, Fulgum, even though the price is right, I'm just a little bit hesitant to go overboard with exposure to him in this particular matchup, even though I do like his chances of maybe keeping the top receiver spot in this offense.

I think we've been wondering for weeks what's going to happen when Elshon Jeffrey comes back. Increasingly, I just, I don't see that much of a role for him. And I think Fulgum is part of the reason why. But I think with Claypool, to me there's a better chance that his path to similar targets this week and similar efficiency in terms of yardage, I think it's actually there. It's intact. I think Cleveland is one of those defenses that is good, but not great,

and I certainly don't fear them matchup-wise quite the same way that I fear Baltimore. So that plays into it too. So I'm more likely to have Claypool, even though he's $800 more expensive this week than Fulgum. Deontay Johnson's still a little bit banged up too, right? So that's kind of a key in the logic in terms of going to Claypool as well. Yeah, I can't imagine that Deonti Johnson.

I mean, it already sounds like he's not going to play, and this is on Thursday, still not practicing this week. And even if he is able to get out there, you wouldn't think he's 100%. And we have a beat writer roundtable out on Friday. And Mark Cabali, we basically had to put the question to him of, you know, what's up with Claypool now, especially when Deonti Johnson and Juju Smith's Schuster are healthy.

And he said, look, you don't do what this guy did in that game, and then don't find a role for him. him going forward. Basically, he forced the Steelers hand here. And if that means less targets for everyone to get him more involved, then so be it. But I do think that Claypool has to be more involved. And the matchup definitely makes him a little bit more appealing than Folgham having to go up against that Baltimore team.

One group of guys who I would actually avoid, Derek, and really this applies to all three players that you would maybe consider in this game is the guys in Chicago and Carolina. That's the one game this week that really really. could be low scoring. It's two teams that when the game is within one score in that neutral game script, both play as slower pace. Bears are 28th in neutral game script pace, so the Panthers are 22nd. The Bears have done an excellent job against wide receivers so far this season. And if you look at their schedule and what they have done against receivers, you might give them a little more credit than they deserve. They missed Kenny Goloday in week one. They missed Chris Godwin

last week. They missed Julio Jones when they played Atlanta. But you're still talking about they faced Calvin Ridley, they faced Mike Evans, and they've shut those guys down. Kevin Ridley had one long play against them, did nothing else. Mike Evans had a short yardage touchdown against them, but did nothing else. So this is still a team that has been very good against the past of the season. That has me concerned about DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson. And then Alan Robinson, you know, he certainly deserves where he is in the DFS world. And I still think he's probably a top five receiver this week, just because he's a top five receiver in a lot of weeks, but I do worry about the pace of this game and him maybe needing a touchdown to pay off

what his DFS price is. Yeah, 7K. I mean, the volume he's getting... A massive. Completely justify 7K. It's really more of like an $8,000 sort of player based on how he's been used the last couple of weeks. But the pace thing is a really important point to bring up. And kind of similar to what we were talking about with Madison versus Adam Thielen and kind of choosing one lane or the other. I think my interest in David Montgomery probably keeps me away from Alan Robinson as well. If the price doesn't do it, it's more just the rest of my build that's probably going to keep me away from him.

All right, Derek, let's throw this thing over to the quarterbacks. Changing it up a little bit, like we said earlier. We're going to go quarterbacks now. Usually talk about them off the top, but let's bump up down a little bit and talk about them right here. I mean, is this as easy as just saying Matthew Stafford against the Jags and let's move on to the next position? It can be.

It's that good of a matchup. Again, the extra time to prepare helps. They are going on the road. I think this game could be a nice shootout going both ways, though. I mean, I think the Gardner-Minshoe experience continues. He's $100 more than Stafford. I think of the two, I do like Stafford a little bit more, but I think you can justify kind of running it back with Jags instead.

I mean, especially for a tournament build, if you were going to do something like you talked about earlier where your interest is in D'Andre Swift, well, stack a couple jags. around that DeAndre Swift lineup and see how that treats you. DJ Chark didn't really come up in the receiver conversation, but I've seen his projected roster rate come in really low. I know his target volume week to week has been a lot more erratic than we would have expected. 6.300 is a lot, but he's been targeted four or fewer times in three or four games he's played this season.

I don't think that's their ideal offensive design. I think getting DJ Chark more target is going to be a priority for them going forward. I think we're going to start to see it this week against the Lions. So I could see going either side quarterback-wise in that Lions Jags matchup. You just got to worry about the ankle issue with Chark. That's really the only thing that concerns me. I would love to be getting a little bit of a discount because of that. I will say, though, that if he is able to play, people are going to be scared off of him in a way that they typically aren't because of that ankle.

and I just don't, especially considering he had ankle issues last year, I don't see the Jaguars pushing him if the ankle really can't hold up to playing a full game. So if he does go, then I do like him as a pivot off of some of the other guys who are going to be a little bit more popular in that price range. You know, we're talking about so many guys who aren't that expensive that we like a lot, and that's going to lead people to be able to fit Lamar Jackson into their lineups at $7,700, the most expensive quarterback on the main slate. I just don't want to do it, Derek. I'm just a little, I'm a touch, I'm a concerned enough about the state of his knees, that they're going to dial it back on the rushing. We've already seen it this season. He's putting way fewer rushing attempts out there.

They're really trying to focus on him as a passer, which is great. Lamar can do it, and the Ravens are winning. They're four and one. I mean, he looks great doing that, but it does bring that fantasy, or the fantasy upside down considerably to a point where I just don't want to do it at $7,700. If I'm going to pay up at this position, I'm really, just looking at Aaron Rogers and Ben Rothfusberger this week. And really more Aaron Rogers than Rothfusberger. I mean, what he's done without Devante Adams and now getting Devante

Adams back. I understand that I love Aaron Jones. I probably don't want to put Rogers and Jones together, but I almost feel like I want one of them in all of my lineups because it really looks like there's nothing stopping this Green Bay offense this season. Yeah, I'm with you there. I mean, I think the big problem I'm having with getting to the expensive quarterbacks is that there's a lot of mid-tier value to go after. There's not enough bargain value in my lineups to this point. So to get to $7,500 for Rogers or $7,700 for Jackson is borderline impossible. If you want to go cheaper than Staffer, I mean, Ryan Fitzpatrick, home against the Jets, has a great matchup.

He's $5,900. And if you're buying into A.J. Brown chalk, you could pair him with Ryan Tannahill, who's also $5,900 this week. I think the only thing that always gives me pause with Tannahill is just that volume is a little bit erratic in this offense. when they have a lead, they like to run the ball with Derek Henry and for good reason. So I guess this is a long way of saying, I like the Titans, whether it's going to be building around Henry or building around Brown or pairing Brown with Tannahill, I will have exposure to the Titans offense in my lineups with regularity here in week six. I'm surprised that Tannahill isn't getting a little bit more love in the pricing game here.

He's just someone who has delivered pretty much every single game that he has been a starter for this team. I mean, let's just look at this season. He's got at least two touchdown passes in three of his four games, and two of those four, he's got three or more. He has one 300-yard game. That was the only game he didn't throw a touchdown. And he runs a little bit, too. I mean, he's going to run and pretty, he's going to give you some sort of rushing production a lot of the time. In week five against the bills, it was 42 yards in a touchdown.

Obviously, that is the ceiling of what we expect from him, but I'm surprised we don't see him, you know, living more in the mid-six range rather than the high-five range. So I'm with you there that he and fits both nice pivots to go a little bit cheaper at the quarterback position. I got to ask you one thing that I know you wanted to get into a little bit. Tom Brady, you put up as someone who you're wondering why maybe there's not a little bit more love for. I will make the anti-Tom Brady argument. I'll let you make the pro-Tom Brady argument and then we'll move on to tight ends. For me, it is the possibility of no Chris Godwin, again, for this Bucks team. The likelihood that if Chris Godwin is back, he's not 100 percent.

And then without Chris Godwin, with Chris Godwin, no matter what, the likelihood that we see Jair Alexander shadow Mike Evans. And Mike Evans can beat any cornerback, but I'd rather have him not have to beat Jaya Alexander every single time he runs a route, especially if there's not Chris Godwin on the other side of the field, taking some attention away. Yeah, I guess I'm trying not to get too glued to Brady's performance in week five. You know, the Bears' defense, as you mentioned earlier,

has been great against the past so far this season. So we saw the second worst game from Brady of the season, just 14 Draft King's points. But he's gone 22 plus and 3 of 5 so far. Maybe I'm clinging to the week three and week four performances, eight combined touchdown passes in those two games against the Broncos and Chargers. I think there are still some holes in that Green Bay defense that can be exposed. But I think you're right. The availability of Chris Godwin really does drive the interest in Brady.

If Godwin is able to play on Sunday, even if we don't know that he's 100% I think that's enough for me to go ahead and push Brady into some tournament builds. Yeah, definitely. It feels like a make or break, almost like a light switch. On, yes, if Godwin is in, off no. If Godwin is out.

Let's move over to tight ends here. I hate this position this week. I absolutely hate it. The two guys who I really like at the position for this week in DFS are T.J. Hawkinson, John,u, Smith. But I like Kenny Galladay and A.J. Brown way more. And I don't have enough confidence in those two passing games to play two of them in the same lineup.

So it just leaves me really flailing at this position. Yeah, it's not good. It's weird to see guys like Robert Tonian, probably still over 5K. I realize part of the usage changed because of the Adams injury, and he's coming off the three touchdown game in week four against the falcons, so people are excited about him. But they do spread the ball around behind Adams when Adams is out there.

and I just, I don't see an obvious value play. And I think part of the problem is that some of the other guys we like, some of the top receivers we like, are competing for targets with some of the best available tight ends. T.J. Hawkinson against the Jaggs makes plenty of sense, but you're probably not going to play him in the same lineup as Kenny Galladay unless you're going with a full lion stack, right? So that's a problem there.

Maybe it's Mike Gisicki. Maybe that's your best path to Dolphins exposure this week. You know, if you're not going to play fits or even if you are, If you're not going after Miles Gaskin, but you want to take a shot at that Jets defense, perhaps that's the best way to do it. I think you could also just justify trying to pay up for Mark Andrews at 6500. That's going to depend, of course, on how many of those 7K running backs you go after and how aggressive you get with top end receivers. But if possible, Mark Andrews at 6500 going up against the Eagles is probably the direction I would want to go as much as I possibly can. Yeah, see, Gisicki was someone who off the top of my head before I looked at pricing or anything.

I would have thought he's probably going to be one of my favorite tight ends to go after this week, but you've got him at $5,500, the second most expensive tight end on the main slate behind Mark Andrews, $1,000 behind him. And that's just too rich for my blood when you consider how uneven his targets have been this year, right? You have week one, five, then week two, 11. Okay, Dolphins have figured it out. He caught eight balls, 130 yards, and a touchdown. He's the Gisicki we thought he was back in draft season.

Then he gets three targets in both of the next two games. And then he gets six last week and catches five for 91. He is actually first among tight ends in yards per target this season. Among tight ends who have at least 20 targets. So basically among tight ends who actually get looks in their passing game. He's got the same number of targets and more yards than Travis Kelsey. I mean, this is someone who deserves more looks. And if you told me that you came back from the future and said to me, guess what?

I'm not going to tell you how many catches yards and touchdowns, but Mike Kisicki had eight targets in this game. I would say, all right, $5,500, that feels good. I just don't trust Miami to use him in that way after what we've seen this season. And that's why I find myself going cheaper at this position. Irf Smith kind of jumps out of me actually as a guy who lets you open a lot of doors, just $2,500. And this is someone who also maybe finally punched through in his offense last week, four catches, five targets, a few big plays for this Minnesota offense.

We know the athleticism is there. And the best thing I think for him is that they are really using him as the receiving tight end and Kyle Rudolph more as a blocking tight end. Yes, that is exactly what you want. I mean, I think you're taking on risk, of course, anytime you get a player that cheap. But there's definitely a nice ceiling there with Irv Smith. Yet another player in that Vikings' Falcons game that stands out.

Last question, as it pertains to that game, especially, with the price being so low, are you okay with throwing Smith in a lineup that has Madison or even Thielen in it as well? Because, you know, you're not going to 5K guys. It doesn't have to be a full stack. Is there a path for you to use him with one of the other Vikings? I think there definitely is.

I would lean more toward Thielen, if only because I would rather just bet on the passing game and whole. And then maybe even, you know, at that point, maybe I'm also talking myself into Kirk Cousins to 6,100, a little bit cheaper than Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshu, sort of the bottom of that group of quarterbacks, at least in terms of price, and just going full Viking stack. I mean, if you have stacked against Atlanta this season, you've come out of pretty much every game feeling decent about it. And with the way Minnesota's past game has picked up

over the last couple of weeks, that's something that I could see myself doing here. But definitely think Irv Smith can fit in with one of his Vikings teammates as a mini stack or as a full-on stack if you want to throw cousins in there as well. Wrap things up now at the defense and special teams here. For me, this one's pretty easy, Derek. It's Miami and Washington, and part of it is because I just want to pick on these New York offenses, right? So Miami gets the Jets, Washington gets the Giants. Washington's pass rush lit up again. last week with the return of Chase Young. I just really like that team.

I think both those teams can create havoc, and Draft Kings really isn't asking you to break the bank to get either of them. I think you nailed it. I'm always trying to save money on defenses. Situations are really good. Dolphins being at home is awesome, too. I mean, you always love having a defense at home.

I know it matters a little less right now with stands either partially full or even completely empty. But 2,900 for a team that can get pressure, for a team that can certainly force some turnovers against an offense that is just atrocious. That's my default play is to go with the dolphins this week. And I like the Dolphins Gaskin stack, too,

a little running back defense correlation. If you would have told me that, talk about time traveling. If you would have told me that six weeks ago, that I was going to be saying, you know what, Dolphins Miles Gaskin stack and actually meet it, not be like making fun of, you know,

Nando trying to go way off the board, then I would have thought you were crazy. But here we are. And I really do like that this week. That's going to do. it for the DFS portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show DVR. Got to say goodbye. Good luck this weekend, man. Hey, good luck to you too. Enjoy the games. Okay, we move along now to the gambling portion of this Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and

Athletic Football Show. And to do that, we bring on Vic Tafer. Vic, of course, one of our two Las Vegas Raiders, beat riders. Vic, exciting times with the Raiders. It went over the Saints. to win over the Chiefs. Got some Vic Tafer magic going on with that team. More like Derek Car Magic. I think we can go. Fans are ready to kill Derek and now everybody loves them again. So it's kind of funny how the things change.

But yeah, they're definitely doing well. And nice buy a week to savor the win with. So it's all good in Raiderland. Yeah, right? Definitely a well-deserved buy after that huge upset win over the Chiefs last week. And Vic, those Raiders, they taught me a lesson. These Chiefs aren't. It's not just a clear path layup to just back the chiefs no matter what the spread is.

You did that a lot last year, and it worked for me. It did it a little bit this year, and so I'm realizing might have to back off that, at least for the time being not a great week for us in week five. I went two and three. You went one and four. At least one of our consensus picks did hit. That was the Cleveland Browns, not only covering the spread or beating the spread as underdogs, but winning outright against the Indianapolis Colts.

He had one other consensus pick. That was the Jaguars. First of all, let me just say for everyone out there. Vic actually pick the Jaguars on the show, but not as one of his top five picks in the column. So be sure to check out the column as well. He had them subbed out and subbed in the Ravens in their place, and they covered with ease against the Cincinnati Bengals. But that Jaguars game, man, that hurt.

That was one that, you know, it was 30 to 14. So on the scoreboard, it looks like we weren't at all close. But it was close to the whole first half. Stephen Houska hooked a 24-yard field goal. Then he came up short after. after an interception on what was like a 47-yard field goal. So multiple opportunities to at least tie that game going into the half. There were some turnover issues too for the Jaguars.

That one felt a lot closer, especially since we were getting six and a half than the 30 to 14 score would indicate. Yeah, there's some tough ones. That was tough one. The Eagles, I thought it was a tough one. They took their field to go ahead and they missed it and they gave a touchdown at the very end.

So, Dag Prescott, you know, obviously out for the year. That was a tough blow for a couple of days. backers. So yeah, it was a rough day. Yeah, that Cowboys won another one that felt like if Dak stays healthy, if Dak doesn't get that gruesome injury, then they're probably covering the spread too. But that's how things go

here, unfortunately. So we look at our season long records. I'm sitting at 14, 10, and 1. You are at 816 and 01. Our consensus record, 4 and 4. Just trying to blow right through it. Just blow right through it. We'll get to week 5, week six picks. Here you've got five new picks

coming up this week here. Four and four on the Again, one in one last week, the win on the Browns, the loss on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's talk week six. You ready to wash week five out of her mouth and get to week six here, Vic? I'm ready. All right, let's do it. Our early lines, and again, week six, this is Vegas Insider Consensus Lines. Early, first game on the board.

Panthers minus one and a half at home against the Chicago Bears. 44 and a half is the over under the lowest over under on the board for week six. I was tempted, tempted to go bears here. That's the direction I'd lean, but it's just a little too small. You give me another point, get this up to two and a half. Maybe I feel a little bit better about the bears, but very impressed with what the Panthers have done this season. I mean, this was a team that we were basically leaving for dead to start the year

because of all the changes. Matt Ruhl coming in as the head coach, Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, and that just seemed like a recipe for disaster in a season where no one had a real off season, no real training camp, no mini camps, no nothing. This team now three and two, going three and O in games without Christian McCaffrey, been a very impressive performance from the Panthers in the early going here. Yeah, the Bears nice win last week, but Nick Foll's still a little shaky,

so it's hard to back Nick Foles on the road. But I'm leaning towards the Panthers, but I can definitely see why people think the Bears should win this game. Yeah, it just doesn't have one where either side is jumping out at me as one that I've got to pick for one of my top five plays. And this was a week where I didn't have too much trouble finding five plays that I liked this next game, another NFC North team involved. And this is another one that I was tempted to pick, but I ultimately did not. Lions are minus three on the consensus.

You're also paying a little bit more juice for that minus three. According to the consensus, it's minus 120 rather than our usual minus 110 for a spread bet at the Jacksonville Jaguar. So the Lions laying three on the road. 54 and a half is the over-under. I really want to pick the Jaguars, Vic. I just feel as though the Lions don't deserve to be laying three against almost anyone on the road. Injury issues are what concerned me about Jacksonville. They had a ton of injuries on defense last week.

Some of those could be carrying over in this one. DJ Chark has yet to practice this week. And the last time this team played without DJ Chark was a game that they were favored in against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. and then the Dolphins came out and waxed him 31 to 13. That's a guy who really takes a huge bite out of their offense when he is not available. So with all the injury issues on this team, I just can't quite get behind backing them, even though they're catching three at home. Yeah, I'm with you.

I'm not a map petitioner guy, so I can't take him as a road favorite. So I also lean towards the Jags. Yeah, that's still the lean here, still definitely the lean, but not one that it's hard to stay away from because of those Jacksonville injuries. And that's really what it is, right? Too many injuries for Jacksonville for me to really want to trust them. Detroit is still Detroit. I do not like Matt Patricia.

I wish that they would use the buy. If we knew they used the by weekend, they said, you know what? We've got two guys on this offense in D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hawkinson, that we just haven't really used. Maybe we should start using them. They're two of our best players. I would feel a little bit better about them being road favorites.

But I just can't trust that they use the biweek in that way. So we're going to stay away from Lions and Jaguars. We are starting fast and furious with N. F. North teams, this is one that I am going to take Vikings minus four at home against the Falcons. You're going to see this as three and a half in a lot of spots too, which obviously we like a little bit better if we are backing the Vikings as I am.

Before I get into my logic for this one, got to say, of course, the Falcons had to close their facility on Thursday because of a handful of positive COVID-19 test. So there is a chance that this game gets postponed or doesn't even get played at all, period. In week six, Vic and I are recording this on Thursday afternoon as of our. recording, this game is going forward and is expected to be played. So if it doesn't get played, I will make a substitute pick, but for now, the Vikings are a play here. Not only a play, Vic, but my favorite play of the week. I love the Minnesota Vikings here. This team is better than the 1-4 record suggests, right? They lost by, they have two one-point losses on the season. And

those one-point losses came to two of the four remaining undefeated teams in the NFL just last week against Seattle and a couple of weeks ago against Tennessee. You go back to week one, They played Green Bay, another one of the undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. Minnesota has had a brutal schedule to start the year. So I don't think there are very few teams in the NFL who would be one and four if they had the five opponents that the Vikings have had to date this season. That offense humming right along with the addition of Justin Jefferson. They're almost certainly going to be without Dalvin Cook in this one if it does play.

But Alexander Madison, not quite a one-for-one replacement for Dalvin Cook, but pretty darn close to it. 20 carries for 112 yards against the Seahawks last week, doing most of that damage after Delvin Cook left early in the second half with the groin injury. The Falcons are just a hopeless case. This is a team that is totally can't do anything defensively. They're probably going to be without Julio Jones in this one too.

I just don't see how they keep this game close. It almost feels like a fishy line with as low as it is. This would have to get up to 7.5-8, Vic, before I started thinking about going in the other direction. Yeah, there's a little fishy the line, I think. You know, they fired their coached the Falcons. They fired Dan Quince. I think teams that fire their coaches are 1-0 ATS this year.

So that's a scary trend. But I'm leaving the other way. What do you like about the Falcons in this one? I just think like I mentioned, the coaching change, I think. I think Matt Ryan, obviously, still got some juice laugh. I know you mentioned Jones being out. There's some good receivers there. They're kind of dangerous offensively still.

So the Vikings, they get that one away last week. I think there still got some issues in the secondary. So I could see it in a close game. I mean, I definitely see the fact that's probably losing, but I can see them sticking around the neighborhood and make you interesting. Yeah, Rahim Morris taking over as the interim coach for Atlanta. And Dan Quinn, obviously, a guy who has made his bones on the defensive side of the ball. So you still have Dirk Cutter calling the plays and running the offense as the offensive coordinator.

So it would expect some continuity from that offense, even with the head coach now gone. Next game up, this is another one that feels almost too good to be true, but I'm going to attempt fate and take it, Vic. it is the Tennessee Titans minus three. Again, this is another minus three minus 120. So a little bit of juice. I am willing to pay that little extra juice on the Titans to get them minus three at home against the Houston Texans. It's just time to believe. I really think the Texans are another team like Minnesota that is better than the one and four record suggests, but it's time to believe in this Tennessee Titans team. I mean, how many times do they have to go out and prove to us that

maybe they are more like the team that made the charge to the AFC championship game last year than thought they could be coming into the season. A really impressive win, beating Buffalo, really making it not even a game. And the first team that's really handed it to Buffalo like that this season, you got a few impressive wins on the docket here. Ryan Tannihill, the most efficient quarterback in the NFL from last year, picking up right where he left off. This is a team that knows what it wants to do offensively and is able to execute it.

And that's what I find most impressive about these Tennessee Titans, Vic. I don't think anyone would say that they are on par offensively purely, of course, with the Chiefs. But I even mean, maybe not with the Seahawks, not with the Packers, just point for point explosiveness. They're not quite there, but they know what they are offensively, and they can do it. Game in and game out. A.J. Brown, back from the bone bruise in his knee last week, didn't miss a beat, catches the first touchdown of the game. Looks like the best player on the field when he's out there at times. And I just think that this is a team that is going to be able to execute its game plan against the Houston defense that is more than.

name brand than actual production at this point. So the one thing that scares me is that line. Like, why is this just three? Why are the Titans only favored by three? It's got to be the short week here. I mean, we're talking about a Tuesday to Sunday. So basically your typical Sunday to Thursday, but still, they're at home for this one. I don't know. This just feels almost too good to be true, but I'm still going to back the Titans. Yeah, I think it's, I mean, Houston's kind of a desperate team. They have to start winning some games. DeShine Watson, who won at Tennessee last year. So I think the short rest is kind of worrisome for people who want to stack the Titans. So I would lean towards the Texans. But again, definitely the Titans are a better team. So they come in ready to play and focus. They should have to be able to handle business.

All right. Next game up is the New York Giants minus three. That's even. So we're talking about a little bit less juice than you would pay than the typical minus 110. Minus three even against the Washington footballs at home. Over under is 53. I'm ready to make another pick. I'm just firing these. one's early. I'm feeling good about the early slate on Sunday. Give me the football's here, Vic. The reason being, first of all, I don't care who they're playing. What have the Giants done this year to suggest that they should be favored against anyone in the NFL? They look terrible on both sides of the football. Really, the only player who's done anything worth his salt is Graham Ginell for this team, kicking multiple 50-yard field goals last week in that game against the Cowboys. But this team just looks atrocious, offensively, defensively. Daniel

Jones is not just taking a step back. He is taking multiple monster steps in reverse. Just looks like a totally hopeless case in his second year in the league. I don't understand why this team should be favored by a field goal against any team. I know they're playing at home, but if you look at these two teams, what's the best unit on the field? I think it's Washington's defense, and I think it's specifically Washington's pass rush. We already saw the impact that Chase Young made in his first game back after missing a game because of an injury last week. I think that that Washington pass rush can really dominate this game, make things uncomfortable for Daniel Jones.

I also love the under in this game of 53. I mean, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen are going to play us into the 50s? Is that really going to happen here? I agree. It's a weird game. Both teams are hard to be excited about. But definitely agree with you, the Redskins,

sorry, the Redskins. The football's defense definitely is the best year on the field. So I definitely can see why you pick them. Yeah, just give me those three points. Let me back the defense. Let me trust Chase Young and company to keep things close. And I actually think that Washington ultimately wins this game outright. So give me the football's catching three points against the Giants in New Jersey. Next game up. Steelers minus three and a half against the Browns over under 51.

No pick here for either of us. I'm really excited for this game, Vic. Steelers and Browns playing a meaningful game. It just feels right. The four and O Steelers, the four and one Cleveland Browns. This is one of the games I am most excited for on the week six slate. I can just see this one going in a number of ways. So a pretty easy one for me to stay away from.

My lean is toward Cleveland. It's got a lot to do with the fact that they're just getting the points, and I think these are pretty even teams. Homefield, not showing to have as big an effect this year as it does in a typical season. So I'll take the points, but not in a way that I'm going to make them one of my top five picks. Where's your lean on this game? Yeah, my lean is the other way. I think Baker Mayfield has an x-rays on his ribs.

I think Steelers will definitely hit him this week. So just based on a healthy quarterback, I lean towards Big Band and the Steelers. Yeah, totally fair. Baker Mayfield is trending in the right direction, according to his offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, as of our recording, no reason to think that he won't be out there for the Browns. But the Browns do have multiple injuries on offense.

You've got Baker dealing with his rib issue, Jarvis Landry. is basically pop it up on the injury report every week because of the hip that he had offseason surgery on. He also now has a rib issue that he's dealing with. The Kareem Hunt has had groin and thigh injuries probably related to one another. All those guys expected to play. The one guy who isn't expected to play is starting guard Wyatt Teller, and that's one of the real important cogs on their offensive line.

So a lot of injuries on Cleveland side of the ball for offense. So that is something definitely to keep an eye on before you finalize any plays. might make in this one. Next up, Baltimore Ravens, going to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles Ravens are seven and a half point favorites. 47 and a half is the over under you, like the home team. You just can't get away from these Eagles, Vic. What is it about him this week? I'm going to pretend they covered last week. I think they could. They should have covered. They should have given up at the end. So I think they're actually turning the right direction. I think the O'Lines play a little better. I think parts of the awareness is playing better.

defense is trying to figure some things out. So I like the hook. I think they're definitely at the conference now. So I like getting the hook. I think they'll be able to stay close. I'm not sure they're going to win the game, but I can definitely sit in a field game down the stretch. Yeah, let's actually stay here for a second and talk a little bit about Lamar Jackson.

Obviously not running nearly as much as he has in previous seasons. And this knee issue is something that's not keeping him out of games, but it does seem like it's keeping him from being the quarterback he was exactly last year, and maybe that makes us a little bit more wary of these big spreads that Baltimore is going to have many weeks. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think obviously they weren't last week big, but he wasn't really the reason why,

so I think that you can look at that carefully. Yeah, that was an incredible defensive effort from the Browns, just stifling anything Cincinnati wanted to do. And speaking of Cincinnati, they are up here. They are catching seven and a half as they go into Indianapolis to take. on the Colts, 46.5 is the over-under. I want to take the Bengals in this one, Vic. I was tempted to, and I'm still tempted to,

and if the Vikings and Falcons end up not playing, I could see the Bengals being my replacement pick, but I sort of am scarred from watching that offensive line try to hold up against the Ravens last week, and I fear what it's not going to be able to do against the Colts this week. Yeah, I'm with you. I think if you pick the Bengals, you're the better quarterback.

I think River is starting to, obviously I don't think you're playing that well when they were winning. Obviously, I don't think they can play very well when the coaches were asked after the game because of the quarterback. So I will see what happens in the rest of the way. But I think Joe Burrow definitely is a better quarterback at this point. I mean, it's all that line. It is all that line because seven and a half feels like too much for an offense

that I just, I really don't believe in the Colts offense. I mean, this feels like a worse version of the 2018 Bears where their defense isn't quite as good as the Bears. And at least that Bears team had a, a real alpha receiver in Allen Robinson and a quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, who could get away from trouble when there was trouble in the backfield. That is not Phillip Rivers. They don't have that go-to alpha like the Bears did in Alan Robinson.

They just feel like a lesser version of that 2018 Bears team that was probably out a little bit above its skis when it went 12 and 4 that season. And so I don't buy the Colts. I think they're a little bit fraudulent at 3 and 2, but that offensive line for Cincinnati really makes me think twice. So maybe I'm starting to talk myself into Cincinnati a little bit, but for the time being, we're going to hold off. Last game in the early slate on Sunday, Patriots minus 10 against the Denver Broncos.

45 is the over-under. Of course, this is the postponement from last week. Move to this week, forced the NFL to do all sorts of shuffling that basically ended up in the chargers having an entirely new schedule and a few other teams having some minor changes. is you like the Patriots to bounce back, cover that 10. They do get Cam Newton back. He was activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday.

Stefan Gilmore activated on Thursday. So definitely good news for the Patriots heading into this one. Yeah, extra time to get to get ready for the Broncos, I think, Bill Belchek, two weeks are prepared for either Brett Rippin or Drew Locke's. Drew Lock will be back. Drew Lock is back. That doesn't matter. But I think, yeah, I think the defense will be fine.

The Patriots defense is taking their business and Cam Newton will definitely show he's healthy and ready to go. So I see it kind of be a blowout in that one. Yeah, just think back to the last time we saw the Patriots was the game that they were forced to play without Cam Newton against the Chiefs and

just a great job done by that Patriots defense to keep that game close, to keep that game within striking distance for much of it. And you imagine what they can do, as you said, with two weeks to prepare for a Broncos' offense that, of course, nowhere near that Chief's offense and Drew Locke. This will be the first time we've seen him since week two. That

lost to the Steelers that he went out with the shoulder injury. A lot of injuries with that team, of course, no Cortland Sutton in this one. Melvin Gordon's status up in the air after he was arrested in charge with DUI earlier this week. So something certainly to watch in that one. A lot of moving parts for the Broncos offense. Just two games in the late window on Sunday. The first one, not exactly going to get too many people excited. Vic, the Miami Dolph are nine and a half point favorites. The Miami Dolphins, nine and a half point favorites against the New York Jets. 47 is the over-under.

Miami, one of the most impressive wins in the NFL in week five, blowing out the 49ers on the road. What's crazier? What do you feel is crazier, Vic? The fact that the dolphins are favored by nine and a half or the fact that you feel it's one of the five best plays on the board to back them, laying nine and a half against the Jets. It's all crazy.

It's the first time they've been favored in the, in Florida's regime. So I got to celebrate that. I think the Jets are obviously terrible. And I think a lot of their players are probably thinking they're going to be traded in next week. So I think I just can't imagine the focus or talent is there for the Jets to stay in that game. The dolphins are not great, but they're good enough offensively. And if its magic's been hot and as long as you have turned it all over, they should be able to take care of business. Man, this is just a signal that odds makers are terrified of the Jets, right? because they just don't, they want to force you to not bet on the Jets.

Because the dolphins have looked good this year. And Brian Flores, I mean, that dude has to be an up-and-comer in the league with what he did with this team in the second half last year and how they've started this year. Just a really impressive performance. I don't think the talent suggests that they should have the amount of wins they have in their last, you know, 12 games dating back to last season. But still, nine and a half, I mean, they are, their, Vegas is trying to find a way to just scare people away from, just betting blindly against the Jets. That's what this line says to me, but the dolphins, I mean, that's the way I lean too.

That's the way I lean too. As much as I don't want to play, and it's not one of my five favorite plays. I just don't see how you back your Jets team that is now without Levi-on-Bell. Sam Darnold won't be out there either. And like you said, this could be a team that unloads as many things that aren't nailed down to the roster

as possible before the trade deadline. Last game in that Sunday late window, the only other game in that Sunday late window. This is a marque one. This is a big one. This is where you're going to find, I assume Joe Buck, unless he's got a baseball game to call. And Troy Aikman, Packers and Buccaneers.

Packers favored by one on the road in Tampa. I'm calling this one, Vic, my don't overthink it special of the week. Green Bay looks like the best team in the NFL. Green Bay has been excellent in every single game they've played this season. No one has been able to slow down that offense. And they have played two games without Devante Adams, who just might be the best receiver in the NFL, and this team is still, I mean, you have to go and do a game against Green Bay thinking if we don't get the 30, we have no chance to win.

And Tampa can do it. Tampa can definitely do that. Tampa can match this team point for point, but all this line is forcing the Packers to do is win, and you cover. And I have not seen anything from this team that would suggest that they can't do that. They don't have a defense like Chicago does, and Chicago totally stifled Tampa last week, but they do have Jaira Alexander. And if you're talking about Jaira Alexander getting to shadow cover Mike Evans in a game where Chris Godwin is looking like he's not going to play, I really do fear what this Tampa Bay offense is going to be able to do. So give me the Packers.

Don't overthink it. The better team, all they got to do is win and they cover. I like the Packers. You're not making a pick here as one of your top five, but where's your lean? Yeah, I'm mostly on the Packers. I think it's one of the hottest offenses going, and now they get to Adams back. We're smart to rest them to make sure you didn't rush back. I think there's too much firepower for the bucks.

Yeah, it would be a little more interesting if Chris Godwin we're playing and Leonard Fournett too. You know, he's missed a couple of games here, and we're never really sure what to expect from a Tampa backfield when both Fournett and Jones are healthy, but I know I would feel better about Tom Brady playing with a full deck against Aaron Rogers with the way he's been playing,

the way this offense has been playing. Jair Alexander, as I said, really stepping up and showing himself as one of the best corners in the league. Sunday night football, a battle in the NFC West, a battle of two California teams. The Rams, minus three. Another one where you're going to pay a little bit of juice to get that minus three, minus 120, at the 49ers. 51 and a half. Vic, I notice we only have three games left.

You still have two picks to make. You've got one on this one. Who is it and why? To the Niners, just on the basis of pride, I think the Rams are not a great team. I think the Niners being at home coming off. They're really ugly lost last week. We'll get some guys back. I assuming grapple overly

that was last week So I think they're able I think they have been You know this team pretty well I've played so many times It definitely should be a close game And I think they'll come out On top of it and win this one

And get back in the mix It's almost like a like a body snatcher Like one of those stupid You know Body Snatcher comedies here Where like the Rams have sort of Taken over what the 49ers were Last year and it'll be interesting

to see these two teams Go at it My lean is the 49ers in this one too Just because of the fact that I think they're better than they've shown to this point this season, and they are at home getting the three. This will be the first game, you know, not the first game where they've played with their entire offense healthy, but, you know, Debo Samuel was in just his first game, and Jimmy Garapolo with the ankle issue, like those guys a little bit more removed from their injuries. It feels

like the first game where we're really going to see the fully formed offense in Kyle Shanahan's brain actually out there on the field. But I do have to say the reason why I couldn't go that way, Jared Goff, you know, not getting a ton of attention this season, but he has looked really good. The officiant Jared Goff is back. He actually leads to the NFL with 9.03 yards per attempt this season. And so if that's the level of play we're going to get from Jared Goff, then this Rams team might be for real.

So I'm staying away. Another one, though, that I am very excited to watch Sunday night football between the Rams and the 49ers. Two more games to hit here are Monday night doubleheader. It starts with what could be the marquee game of the week. Week six really bringing it in a big. Big way. Chiefs and Bill's, Chiefs minus three and a half at Buffalo. 57 and a half is the over under here. Staying away. Absolutely staying away. Too many variables. Chiefs being the Chiefs, maybe not being quite as bulletproof as they were a season ago. Bills on this weird schedule, Monday night, still being a short week for them, given the fact that they played on Tuesday night in week five. So the way that these two teams are going, I just want to sit back, watch this one and not really have anything at stake here. My pool where I do end up picking every game. I am leading, just teetering, just a little bit in the direction of the Chiefs,

basically based on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and believing that they can bounce back after what happened last week against the Raiders. Where are you on this one? Yeah, I'm leaning towards the bills, but I also am not feeling that strongly about it. I think the bills have a good front four you need against Mahomes to give them some pressure without blitzing, so I like that part of it. I'm not sure about offensively. I think I run the ball and on the Chiefs, that would be key. But I think it's a, like I said, it's hard to make a decisive stand this one by lean towards the bills. Yeah, we've got, Zach Moss is expected to return in this game. He practiced fully on Thursday.

He's missed a couple of games now because of a toe injury. John Brown missed that game against the Titans because of a knee injury. He also practiced in full on Thursday. The big guy, though, Tredavius White, the bills definitely need him back. We saw what happened, what A.J. Brown was able to do to that Bill's defense without Tredavius White out there. so they could definitely use White back to Shadow Tyreek Hill. Maybe Andy Reid's clever enough to find ways to get Tyreek away from Tradavius White, but you just need him out there against an offense like this. So hopefully we see him because I would love to see these two teams and what could be a preview of the AFC championship game at full strength,

or at least something resembling it on Monday night. Our last game of the week, four week six, the originally scheduled Monday night game between the Cardinal. and the Cowboys. Vic, we've got a consensus pick. We're going to be over 500 or under 500 on our consensus picks after this week. We like the Dallas Cowboys,

and I know I'm Mr. Arizona Cardinals, but we both like the Dallas Cowboys. They are getting one and a half at home against the Cardinals 55 is the over-under. Let me hear your reasoning first. I'm a sick puppy. I can't get off the Cowboys. I took a week off two weeks ago, and that was fun.

But I think the spreads is screwed up. think they're home dogs. I'm not sure Annie Dalton is, I mean, obviously, he's a big drop off off from Dak Prescott, but he's still a very viable quarterback, and they'll be able to score points with him still. So I think it's a good spot for him. I'm not sold in Arizona. I think it's a good place for the Cowboys make a stand and at least outscore the Cardinals. This is a massive overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury, and that is not meant to be a knock on Dak Prescott at all. Obviously, the offensive ceiling that this team has had all season just isn't there without deck.

But Andy Dalton is not just some capable backup. Andy Dalton could probably start for a lot of teams, right? And just happenstance and the way that things went this offseason forced him to go find a very good backup job rather than a starting gig somewhere else. And so while there is a clear and obvious drop-off from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton, it's not like they're handing the reins of this offense over to some nobody.

Andy Dalton is more than capable of steering this ship. We saw it a week ago. We saw it in that game. He has to come in cold. How many times is Andy Dalton thrown a pass to CD land this season? I mean, let's be realistic. How many times has he thrown a ball to Amari Cooper? Right?

I mean, just with the way the offseason went, it just hasn't happened. Very often, he comes in cold, and he leads that team to the victory over the Giants. Makes a huge play down the field to Michael Gallup to set up the game-winning field goal. This is just a massive, massive overreaction to the DAC Prescott injury. I think this is a bet Vegas is making that they can set this one. and people are going to be willing to back the Cardinals because everyone likes to make fun of Andy Dalton and without Dak Prescott, a team that was already sort of reeling

in the Cowboys, what can they possibly do without their superstar quarterback? This is just way too big of an overreaction to that. So give me the Cowboys with a ton of confidence. Our one consensus pick of the week, Cowboys plus one and a half at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Wrap it up with our five picks. Vic, you've got the Eagles, Patriots, Dolphins, 49ers,

and Cowboys with an upset pick. Actually, I'll hold off on that. I've got the Vikings, the Titans, the Washington footballs, the Packers, and the Cowboys. My upset pick this week, you know, I tinkered with the Jaguars. Didn't feel like quite enough for me, so give me the Washington footballs not only to beat that three-point spread against the Giants, but to win that game outright. Who do you got as your upset play of the week to win outright? Take the Niners.

The Niners. Okay, a little bit of Sunday night action as our upset play. there. Survivor. Chiefs didn't quite do it for us last week or at least do it for me last week. Thankfully, I've got a couple of survivor pools, so knocked out there, survived one with the Ravens. This week, I'm thinking, let's keep it easy.

New England Patriots feel like the best play to me. I think there's an argument to fade the dolphins. They're going to be a very popular play this week, so it's more of a pot-ods argument in that you hope that Joe Flacco finds some of that old Baltimore magic. you know maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick goes all bad fits on you and you knock out a quarter of your pool while surviving on someone like the Patriots or the Ravens. How about you if you're in a survivor pool?

Where are you looking this week? Yeah, I'm on the Patriots. I think I can't see too long in wearing an early room. So I think that's a pretty safe one. Yeah, right. Let's not get too cute here. Just like the Don't Overthink it special of Packers over Buccaneers, don't get too cute. If you've got the Patriots available with all these tiny spreads, I mean, one, two, three,

four, five, six, seven, eight, nine of our 14 games this week have three and a half point or lower spreads. And then, you know, I'm not counting a minus four for the Vikings. So, you know, you can even throw that in there with all these short spreads. Why not back the New England Patriots getting Cam Newton back and laying the 10 against the Denver Broncos. That's going to do it for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Thank you so much for listening for Vic Tafer right here for Derek Van Riper from earlier. I am Michael Beller. We will be back with you next week right here at this same time and channel.

Until then, thanks for listening. Have a great weekend and enjoy all the week's six action. This was the Athletic Football Show.