The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 7 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: October 23, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 7 DFS slate. They discuss ideal running back pairs, which typically include two high-priced backs, the abundance of attractive, mid-priced receivers, and budget savers at quarterback.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every Week 7 game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 31:01). Can the Cardinals keep it close with the Seahawks? Can the Patriots bounce back against the 49ers? And who wins the clash of 5-0 teams between the Steelers and Titans in Nashville? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. And welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the athletic football show for Friday, October 23rd, end of the week. Week 7 underway after Eagles and Giants got us going on Thursday night. We are looking forward to what is shaping up to be a very fun, very playoff implication heavy week seven weekend. I am Michael Bellar. I am joined for the first part of this. show where we talk DFS with Derek Van Riper. Dvr, how you feeling heading into the weekend? Feeling great. I love this slate as much as I hated the way week six came together. I love

week seven that much, so I'm really excited. It's kind of week where you deposit more money if you need to and you play a lot more lineups than you normally do. Yeah, it's just a fun week, right? This looks like a really good set of slate of games from both fantasy and real life perspectives, and that's where I'm going to start off our DFS discussion here. We're going to get to talking about some of these games, just because there are a handful that stand out, and I'm thinking about, you know, when you start to build your lineups and you think about getting exposure to certain games, do you feel like you need exposure to the big three, as they are this week, Seattle, Arizona, which now, if you haven't heard, I'm sure you have,

been flex to Sunday night, Green Bay, Houston, Detroit, Atlanta, do you feel like you have to get investment in, I mean, it may be hard to get investment in all three, because obviously you're looking at a lot of high-price players, but are you trying to. to find a way to get tied into at least two of these three? Yeah, I think so. I mean, even if it's one-off plays or even just mini-stacks where you've got maybe receivers going on both sides or running back on one side

and a receiver on the team that you think is going to be playing catch-up. I mean, I think you do, you see a pretty clear gap between those three games and then the second-tier games, which I think you can build primarily around the games that are in that low-50s range and then take a few carefully play shots in those higher-scoring games, and maybe that's the path to unlocking a tournament-winning sort of lineup for this week.

I think one really cool thing that I noticed looking at the early roster rate projections over at Roto Grinders is that it's a flat week for the most part. There is not a ton of heavy chalk, which kind of opens up a lot of interesting possibilities, different combinations of players that won't be overwhelmingly rostered. That just makes playing DFS a lot more fun for a lot of people. So I think that's part of what makes the slate so exciting. Yeah, and you know, you look at those low 50s games, and I think there are some games that would be a little sneaky to stack.

I mean, even if you get some exposure to the high-priced games, there could be some other ones out there that you look at and you get, you know, maybe you pivot off of all of those games or one or two of those big games, and you're still going to find some high scoring in the games that aren't putting up 55, 56, 57 and a half over-unders. I look at L.A. and Jacksonville, the Chargers in Jacksonville, as one that could fit that. And a lot of it to me has to do with what the Chargers passing game,

I think is going to be able to do. This assumes a healthy Keenan Allen, of course. Jacksville's past defense has been among the worst in the league. So I think we could see a big game out of the Chargers. And we know that Gardner Minchu always up for garbage time. So that one jumps out at me. And he jump out at you as games that you want to get invested in as pivots or even just as pairs with some of the, some of those high priced games. Yeah, I think you were right to bring up Jags Chargers is one of those games that was on my pad of games that I think are a little bit overlooked. I do think the Steelers Titans matchup. I think you've got the 50 and a half-ish over under, depending on where you look. You've got a nice point spread. Titans are favored by one. I don't know if it's the reputation of these two defenses that's driving the decisions or if it's just the rest of the slate having some higher scoring games on it.

but that could be a nice back-and-forth game between two offenses that can put points on the board and have a lot of ways of going about it too. So I would say that's probably my slightly overlooked game from the top half of the over-unders. All right, Derek, let's get on to the running back position and let's start building some lineup. So I'm going to go to you first here. When you look at the running back position, what's the first thing that you end up doing? What's the first player you end up putting in or what's the first group of players? How are you starting the build at running back this week?

I think my eyes went to Aaron Jones first at 7200. It's a great matchup against the Texans. It's a high-scoring game that we're looking for. The Packers are favored, so it ticks all the boxes there. We've talked about him on this show before, as someone who might be a little bit disrespected by the pricing algorithms, and he could probably cost $500 more and he'd still be in play. I think he's the default sort of cash-bush.

back that I'd be looking to lock in. And then you see Kareem Hunt right there at 6,800. You know, Nick Chub, of course, not part of that backfield right now. A nice matchup for the Browns, assuming Kareem Hunt goes into the weekend, completely healthy. He's going to be very popular. So I think at least for cash games, he's a strong consideration as well. You get that usage in the passing game.

You get a pretty nice carry floor. We saw it back in week five, 20 carries for 72 yards. I think you're looking at at least three to four targets most weeks as well. So he should be able to get to the 18 plus point. range relatively easily at a sub $7,000 price tag. So that's kind of the default build for cash games, but I think there are so many ways you can start to mix it up. You could save a little bit of money.

Go down to maybe someone like Chris Carson, who's in one of the shootouts, the Sunday night game that we just talked about with the Seahawks and Cardinals, that he makes a ton of sense at $6,400. You could probably build a good cash lineup and have Carson be your most expensive running back in it if you wanted to and then spend that extra savings to get. upgrades at wide receiver. Yeah, Carson is my favorite pivot here. I had Mixen and Hunt both listed as potential pivots off of the high-priced guys,

but you mentioned that Hunt has the highest projected ownership right now, so that doesn't make him quite as interesting a pivot as I initially thought he would be. And Joe Mixen now has missed two straight days of practice. So Friday becomes a very important practice day for Mixon. And even if he is able to get in there, you have to wonder just how close to 100% he will be, and if the Bengals will maybe pull back on his typical usage. So that has me concerned about him. Totally with you on Aaron Jones.

And while this is definitely more of a cash game friendly sort of build, I look at Jones pairing him with one of Camara and James Connor, or Camara and Connor and maybe fading Jones. But I really like starting off my lines with two of those three guys. All three are in great situations, both in terms of what they do, week in and week out for their offenses, the roles that they hold, and the matchups that they have. We're talking about three guys who have.

of the best matchups of the week this week. So I really want to get two of those three guys into my lineups. It's maybe not the most attractive tournament build, but I don't know. It's hard for me to fade all, even just one of those three in the lineup to me feels like you're almost starting at a deficit. That's how I've started all my lineups is playing with ways

that two of those three guys are in there. Sometimes it's Camara Jones, sometimes it's Camer, sometimes it's Jones, Connor. But it's those three guys who are really the central focus of my DFS lineups here in week seven. Yeah, I mean, Camara at 7,900 was the other thought I had when the week began because the matchup is so good, but then you start to think about Michael Thomas coming back and how much that maybe brings the ceiling down.

I mean, it's a pretty skinny production tree in the Saints offense. Those guys can both have huge games in the same week. That's certainly not out of the question, but I do think it makes playing him at 7900 less obvious. And the second thought I had when I looked at Camara, this week was, Ezekiel Elliott is 7,800. And if you're going to spend up,

the workload should be there. The Cowboys, it just feels like everything's going wrong right now. They're a total mess, right? There are leaks about the coaching staff really just not being good at their jobs. I mean, that's brutal. But how could the game plan against Washington be anything less than feed Zeke? I know he's coming off the two fumble game against the Cardinals on Monday night, but we're talking about a top five running back.

talent. And this could easily be the week seven version of Derek Henry. And in the high price group of running backs, it just seems like he's being a little bit ignored relative to where he'd be normally in this matchup at that price. Yeah, I think you're probably onto something there. I mean, who's going to want to play him, right? Who's really going to want to get involved with any sort of cowboy this week? And I think you're probably right about what the game plan is going to be from the Cowboys with the way Andy Dalton played and the strength of Washington being in their pass rush, I could definitely see a heavy game for Ezekiel Elliott. So that does feel also like another high-priced, high-volume pivot away from Camara, even from Henry, who's got a tough

matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Aaron Jones, James Connor, some of the more popular guys. And then as you mentioned, Kareem Hunt going to be very popular. 6,800, obviously not living in that same price range as Alvin Camara or Ezekiel Elliott, but still a guy with when you throw his ownership rate in there does turn Ezeka Elliott potentially into an interesting pivot off of him. Another guy who I'm looking at in a big way, Derek, is Justin Jackson, just $4,900. And that's really the way I started line out. I said I started with two of those three backs, and that's true. But then I also am throwing Justin Jackson right into my flex at $4,900 with the potential volume

that he could get in a game where the chargers are favored by eight, eight and a half, depending on what you look at and against a Jacksonville defense that isn't really scaring anyone. The only thing that keeps me away from Justin Jackson is maybe not wanting to play him alongside Justin Herbert, who I also like quite a bit this week, but $4,900. It just feels like you could get, I don't know, 20 touches or so out of a $4,900 back hat is such a good play. And my dog Clyde in the background had to bark in agreement. Clyde agrees. And Kenyon Drake's probably the other guy in that price range that you're thinking about. I don't know if you'd put both in the same lineup.

I think you could justify one being a cash game staple. Who do you trust more? I mean, I think when you look at the Arizona-Seattle matchup, it's one of the highest totals on the board. I think the Cardinals right now have an implied total of 26 and change. Drake's been getting work, and he's coming off of a great game, but there was a late TD run that maybe skewed our perception of what he really did against Dallas, right? I mean, 20 carries, 164 yards and two touchdowns,

but is he 18 for 70 and still very TD? dependent. I mean, at that price, 18 for 70 and a few catches isn't going to hurt you all that much. So who do you trust more between Drake or Jackson if you have to pick one? It feels crazy to say, but I think I trust Jackson more because I feel as though that Arizona Seattle game is going to be throw, throw, throw, throw, throw. I just think that you're going to have to see a lot of Kyler Murray action through the air and on the ground, but basically it's going to be on Kyler Murray to keep the Cardinals in this game with the Seahawks. So it's less about the player and more about the expected script and what their respective teams are going to have to do to win those games.

Where are you at on those two? I think I'm more likely to have either Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry in my lineup, and that's going to keep me away from Jackson, and I think I'm less likely to find the way to pay up for one of Kyler Murray or D'Andre Hopkins. So it's probably just Drake based on how I'm building lineups. I think maybe a little more faith than Drake just because he's had that volume over a longer period of time. But there's not much that separates them in the projections or in the expected roles for this week. All right. Let's move it over to the wide receiver position here. Derek, I like the first note you put in our little show sheet here. What does Terry McLaurin have to do to get into the 6.2 to 6.5k range?

I agree with you completely. It's like there's nothing he can do to get that pricing respect that it seems like he has already earned. Yeah, we've seen enough Terry McLaren. to know that quarterback play just doesn't seem to bring him down that much. It makes you wonder what's he going to do someday when he has a really good starting quarterback throwing him passes if he ever has a really good starting quarterback throwing him passes, probably not in Washington, probably somewhere else by the time. That actually comes together. But let's not dwell on Terry McClure and spending several years of his career on a bad team.

Let's talk about some other guys in this range. I mentioned Keenan Allen before. As long as he's healthy, he's the cash game staple at wide receiver. Some people are going to lock in Adam. Some people are going to lock in DeAndre Hopkins. I'm not pushing back on that. I'm having a hard time getting up to that level with my top receiver this week because I'm spending a little bit more on my group of running backs as a whole.

So, you know, McLaurin at 5,800, again, a perfectly fine play against Dallas. But Keenan Allen at 6,200, the volume you're expecting him to get as long as he's healthy is just such a benefit in a full PPR setting like Draft Kings. I don't know how you could pass up on him as a cash game option. if he gets the all clear coming out of practice on Friday. Yeah, sounds like he is going to, obviously, maybe we're jumping the gun a little bit there, but the fact that he was able to practice in at least limited fashion,

both Wednesday and Thursday, definitely has the arrow pointing in the right direction. And I agree with you on him being really a good guy to go after. It's that Chargers offense, I think. That's one that, you know, as we said off the top, maybe one of those sneaky games that isn't getting the attention of some of the higher over-under games. But with the Chargers offense,

the way it's played since Justin Herbert, hook over as the starter in a very plus matchup against the Jaguars. There's almost no bad way to invest in it. Keenan Allen, just another one of the good ones. And when you throw his price into the mix, I mean, really all the chargers are fairly, if not underpriced this week. So really a team, I think that you have to find some sort of line of investment in. And I agree with you on Hopkins and the way you should be doing the wide receiver

position here this week. Hopkins is going to be popular for very obvious reasons, but I would rather just spend twice. I'd rather spend up on the running back position. I'd rather go double up at the running back on high-priced guys and find someone a little bit cheaper, find three guys a little bit cheaper at wide receiver because there are so many options.

We've already hit on a few of them here. I'll throw another one out. I feel like A.J. Brown, $6,300 is underpriced. We've seen him come back from the knee injury, give you three touchdowns in the two games since he has been back. He is such a key part of that Tennessee offense. And even though Corey Davis comes back into the fold, $6,300 is not really asking.

You're not asking A.J. Brown to go up and put up 10 catches, 140 yards, and two touchdowns. You don't need him to do that to 6,300. You'll take it, but he can do half that. He can give you 7 for 70 and 1, and you feel very good about getting him in there at 6300. So he's another guy who I feel like is a little bit undervalued, and there are so many guys in this range. I mean, he'd go up to Kenny Gallaudet, 6,700. Another guy who, like Terry McLaurin, doesn't seem, there seems to be, there seems to be some invisible ceiling on what his price is going to be and no matter what he does, he is never going to get priced over it.

The one guy who I think is interesting or who I'm surprised to see in this range of players is one who you brought into the fold here. And that's Tyreek Hill. $6,400 on Tyreek Hill. Chiefs favored by nine and a half at the Broncos this week. I know the Broncos on paper, the defensive numbers look good, but that just feels like a pretty low price for a guy with the role Tyreek has in the offense that he's in. Yeah.

And I think because of the way the receiver board. shapes up. You're not going to have nearly the same roster right on Tyreek Hill that you'd have if he were at this price in a typical week. So you're getting the benefit of a guy that can have a couple of massive scoring plays that swing the entire slate. He's capable of doing that. His floor is probably higher than people realize. He looked week to week. He was over 15 draft king's points every week until that rainy, crappy weather game against the bills. So I like that you're getting them on a discount. You know, it's great to get exposure to the chief's offense. Any time you're not paying full freight to do it. I think the question would be if you were going to

play Hill, is there anybody on the Denver side that you'd run it back with? Because the first two players that come to my mind are both pass catchers. It's Noah Fant if he's healthy at tight end, but it's Tim Patrick if we're talking about the wide receiver position. Yeah, I was wondering about Patrick and Judy actually. And what they might have. You know, I actually kind of like Jerry Judy, only because he got the Stefan Gilmore treatment for a good chunk of that game last week. There's no one on Kansas City's defense that matches up with what Stefan Gilmore is bringing you. And I'm going to check this again, but when I checked it earlier, I'm pretty, is Judy a little cheaper than Patrick this week?

It might not be the case. No, Patrick's still a little bit cheaper. So maybe they're even then in my eyes, but I would rather go with one of them than with Noah Fant. Even if Fant does come back, I would still be a little concerned about first game back from an injury, right? First game back from injury weeks are always dicey just because you're not exactly sure how healthy the guy is. You're not exactly sure how much he's going to be used in the offense compared with his regular role. So that would concern me a little bit. The prices on Judy and Patrick $5,100 for Judy and $4,600 for Patrick.

So I think you could go that way, but I don't think you need to. I don't think you need to stack Hill with someone on Denver side. I think we could still see just a really good performance out of Kansas City's offense here this week. So I think you would feel decent enough about that. But, you know, someone who I do like in a stack situation, if we're going to go back to Keenan Allen as being one of our favorite guys, is DJ Chark. DJ Chark is in that return from injury plus one week, right?

Last week was his first week back from the injury this week. Been practicing as normal $5,500. So you're really still not paying. You're almost still paying for the slightly injured version of DJ Chark. And, you know, not to beat a dead horse. It just feels like that's the sort of game that could get up into the 50s. with how bad Jacksonville's defense has been and how willing of a garbage time offense Jacksonville is. Yeah, I mean, I think you also like the way that Charks used in the red zone, too,

relative to the other options in the Jags offense. So I think at that price, he absolutely makes sense as someone that you want to think about, especially if you are going to go, you know, with Keenan Allen. It's good to have exposure to the other side of that matchup if you're expecting to play up to that higher end expectation of the over-under. I think the other thing that's interesting about receivers this week is that you have a lot of cheap sub 5K values. Christian Kirk had the long touchdown against the Cowboys. Cards were just running with a big lead in the second half.

He seems like he's a little undervalued. If you're looking for discounted exposure through the air to the Cardinal Seahawks matchup, 4,900, is very fair for him. The thing that surprised me the most as I look through the projections over at Roto Grinders was just Deontay Johnson at 4200. Yeah, it's a good value, but he was the projected highest-owned receiver this week. I just, that didn't make sense to me. That doesn't add up. Chase Claypool looks great. I know the price is ticking up.

He's 5,700 now. But they had him just under 10% for usage, which seems very reasonable. Again, a function of how the board as a whole shapes up and some of these matchups we're talking about. But then I got to thinking about Bigfield tournaments again and what it takes to win a tournament and having something that no one else really has in their lineup. This would be the ultimate Juju-Jew Smith-Schuster GPP leverage play because he's cheaper than Claypool. He's 5500 to Claypool's 5,700. And everybody else is on one of Johnson or Claypool.

So if you think that game is that second wave game that comes up a bit higher in terms of overall offensive output, I think Juju for your Big Field tournaments might be a way to get somebody in who's not very expensive, still brings a pretty good ceiling and could really give you some differentiation from the other lineups in the field. Yeah, I think a good way to put this wide receiver position for this week is we've run through, what, 10, 11 guys already, 12 guys, in about eight minutes of time.

We still have plenty more guys that we could get to, but we just don't have all the time in the world to do it. So we've got to move on, but this is a really, it's a fun week, right? It's a fun week to attack the wide receiver position. It's a fun week to attack these two big positions because we have so many of these guys between 5 and 7,000 at wide receiver who we like and who we can build easy arguments around. And then we have some of those high-priced running backs that we really like as well. It just feels like these two positions are really in symbiosis here in week seven.

All right, Derek, let's move this over to the quarterback position. If I'm going to pay up here, I'm going for Russell Wilson or Kyla Murray. I mean, that really is what I'm doing here. No offense to Patrick Mahomes, no offense to Josh Allen. but if I'm really going to pay the premium at this position, I just don't see how it could be anyone other than those two guys. Yeah, I mean, I think it makes sense, especially with them going against each other.

Those two offenses are going to hopefully just push pace and put a ton of points on the board. It's hard to find the 8K for Russell Wilson. I will say that because there's so many other good mid-range and upper-tier players in favorable spots. So I imagine that Murray will be at least a little bit more popular than Wilson. I think the more common build is going to be one of Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, and maybe Deshawn Watson because you save 300 if you go down from Murray to Watson,

you save 600 going down from Murray to Stafford, and you save 700 going down from Murray to Herbert. And I don't think you're hurting yourself all that much, and you're probably going to have one of the pass catchers from those other three quarterbacks in your lineup also, at least there's strong considerations. So I think that's the most likely path for me, even though I think you can try and justify getting up to the Murray plus sort of level this week.

Yeah, I'm not doing that either. I mean, like I said, that's what I would do. That's what I would advise if we're going to pay up here, but it's still not really what I want to do for all the reasons you said. Justin Herbert's my favorite way to go here. And I mean, I like it, Justin Herbert, Justin Jackson, Keen, and Allen stack, but I definitely like having two of those guys in my lineup. We've got Justin Herbert at $6,400.

This is just a great matchup with the Jaguars defense. And we've seen Justin Herbert show up against some good defenses this year. I mean, this guy has had to stare down the Buccaneers defense, had himself a monster game in that one, 290 yards and three touchdowns, a good game against the Chiefs, a good game against the Saints. Justin Herbert has showed up against some really good to great defenses already in his young career. Now he gets a very bad Jaguars defense.

So he's someone who I like a lot. And then I look at Drew Breeze. I think he's kind of sneaky at $6,100. This, of course, is all premised on Michael Thomas playing. And while we think he will still did not participate in the portion of practice that is open to the media on Thursday, now dealing with a hamstring issue in addition to the ankle injury that is apparently behind him. So there is a little bit of concern there, I think, for Michael Thomas. But if he does play, Drew Breeze having him and Alvin Camara out there, $6,100.

I'm not saying he's a steal. I just think he's someone who should at least be part of the decision-making process. Yeah, I'm totally there with you. And I look at Breeze and Ryan Tannahill kind of in the same bucket right now, with Tanahill being in that Titan Steelers matchup. Only $100 more if you want to get up to Tannahill. I think if you want to go bargain this week, Joe Burroughs pretty interesting. He's home against the Browns, 5,500.

So he's a significant chunk less than the mid-tier guys that we're talking about. about, do you dare tempt fate and go that cheap at quarterback this week? I think you can. And, you know, the thing you like about Joe Burrow is that volume really isn't going to be an issue. And it might even be less of an issue if we're talking about a compromise Joe Mixon. So I could go that way. I'm probably not going to tempt fate because there's, you don't really have to, right? You don't have to pull off the quarterback pricing gymnastics to get a lot of the guys at running back and receiver that we like into your lineups. This isn't a week where we're trying to in a $9,500 Christian McCaffrey, right?

Even if you go expensive, expensive at running back, we're still talking about a, what, like a $7,900 Camara and a $6,700, or a $7,200 camera and a $6,700 Connor, or $72 on Jones, I mean, 72 on Jones, $6,800 on Kareem Hunt. Like, we're not trying to squeeze in, you know, an $8,500 salary and a $7,900 salary this week. So it's not a week that I love to do it. I'll throw one more guy out there if you are looking for a way to get super expensive guys in. Maybe you do want to go with a couple of those guys and DeAndre Hopkins.

Kyle Allen could be worse, right? $5,200, a great matchup against this Dallas defense that has stopped no one this season. And it's worth saying last week, 280 yards and two touchdowns against a similarly bad Giants defense. The week before that, Kyle Allen's first started the season. He left in the second quarter because of an injury, but he had a rushing touchdown before that injury. so on a per quarter basis he's giving you some decent fantasy production this season. He would actually be my preferred player. If I'm going to go cheap, I'm going to go really cheap

and try to get stacked, get loaded at every other position. Yeah, I think I'd be looking at that sort of strategy in the biggest field GPPs. We're talking like the $1, $3 tournaments that have hundreds of thousands of entries because then you've got more differentiation and you've maxed out ceiling at the other positions. definitely a what could go right sort of play in those circumstances. Sorry, you cut out there for a second. By the time you came back, you were already done talking. Oh, all right.

Yeah, I just kind of closed the thought on the cheap quarterback, so it should be a pretty seamless transition to tight end. Yep. All right, Derek, let's hit up the tight end position now here. This one's tough for me just because the guy who I like the most is T.J. Hawkinson, but I feel like with all the spending I'm going to do elsewhere, I kind of want to go even cheaper than his first. $5,000 play, but very friendly defense he goes up against with the Falcons this week.

He's one of the best tight ends, I think to play regardless. Like if I have him in season long, not only am I starting him regardless, but I actually feel really good about getting a strong game out of him. I think he's probably a top five tight end play this week. But still with, I mean, even though I just said the thing about, you know, we don't really need to save at the quarterback position in an extreme way this week, we still do need to find a little bit of a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there. and spending 5,000 at the tight end position feels like it might be a little too much.

I'm having a hard time finding 5K for tight end. I think a lot of other people are finding that same problem. Hunter Henry is really popular this week, especially if we get bad news on Keenan Allen, that would probably drive more interest to him. But I could see Hunter Henry finishing as the most highly rostered tight end on draft kings this week. He's projecting that way over at rotor grinders right now. Austin Hooper catches my eye too, though, at 4K. I think, you know, Brown's Bengals is one of those games that it's in the secondary bucket.

I'll have probably at least one player from that game, maybe two in a lot of my lineups. I think Hooper is a really good way to get that, given the volatility we've seen from Odell Beckham, given Jarvis Landry seemingly just being hobbled each and every single week. I think Hooper is probably a good, happy medium there. There's a nice floor. If he finds the end zone in that game at 4K, you're going to come away really happy. Yeah, and he's quietly gotten back into the offense. after starting off his Brown's tenure really slowly,

doing more blocking than he was route running, but he's been more a part of the passing game over the last couple of weeks. That's my preferred range. You've got him at 4K, you go $100 down. You can find Dalton Schultz. You can go $100 up. You can find Darren Fells.

We know about those guys. They're going to have some sort of role in their offense where they're going to get targets, and we know the touchdown upside, certainly for Fells and Schultz is, you know, as high as you're going to get once you get out of the obvious crop of tight-end starters. So that's really my preferred way to go here.

One of those three guys, you're spending on average $4,000 at the tight end position. It gives you plenty of places to spend up elsewhere. And I do the same thing at defense. I'm going back to the Washington well, Derek. They really haven't let us down this season. They haven't given us a ton of huge games, but you're not really asking them to do that. They come in in the mid-toos, maybe the high-toes in a really good matchup. Basically every single week, they can get after the quarterback.

They do get that. They do get after the quarterback and get you a couple of sacks on average pretty much every single week. We know they can pop a big play. And this actually, I was surprised to see them at just $2,500 this week because a Dak Prescott-Less Dallas team isn't, you know, a terrible matchup. I still think it's not one that you're necessarily super excited about because of all those weapons. And because even though last week was as ugly as it was, it's not like Andy Dalton is some total incompetent running an offense.

But it's not a matchup that you're scared of either, especially with what Washington can do getting after the quarterback. So I feel really good about them at $2,500. Yeah, I think that's going to be a common punt defense for this week, and that's totally fine. I mean, if they get on the board of the defensive touchdown or a special team's touchdown, that's huge. As you said, they always get pressure. I think you want to pick on backup quarterbacks and you want to pick on rookie quarterbacks. So if you're looking for another way to possibly get into the Browns Bengals matchup,

the Browns defense is one way to do that. They're under 3K at 2,800. I think you could justify going that route as well. I don't think you can do the ultra-contrarian spend up for a defense thing. this week because there's just too many other smart places to spend your money elsewhere. So when you see the bills at 4,700, you just think like, how on earth could you justify it on this particular slate? Sure, no one's going to have them, but you just can't do it because you're leaving too much out there elsewhere. Yeah, it's just, it's way too risky and way too

silly to try to do that. As great of a matchup as it is, hats off to anyone who has the bills and their season-long team, but DFS, we are going to go another route. That also brings us to the end of our DFS route on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. DVR, thanks for joining us here, man. Have a good weekend. Yeah, you too. Enjoy these games. Enjoy this slate.

I have so many players we didn't even talk about who I'm going to have in lineups, guys that I really liked that we didn't even have time for. Definitely going to be a fun one. We'll check you later, DVR. Okay, we move it on over to part two of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. So for Friday, October 23rd, Week 7, we are going to talk some against the spread picks. And to do that, we bring on Vic Tafer as we do every single week on this show. Vic, how you doing today? Doing okay.

Do it okay. A little crazy. A lot of COVID scheduling stuff coming up, but otherwise, all good. Yeah, a little hectic for you out there covering the Raiders. Obviously, that's not a game we're going to talk about here in this context. But hopefully it's a game that still happens in week seven. the Raiders and the Buccaneers, of course, who was supposed to be Sunday night football. That got moved, and now maybe the game gets moved entirely because of the Raiders' COVID-19 issues.

But that is another topic for another day. Fingers crossed that we still get this game in week seven, and of course that everyone is healthy. Let's take a look back at week six. Vic, you went three and two. I went two and three. Your wins, Philadelphia, San Fran and Miami. Those Cowboys, man, they keep getting us. So it was one of both of our losses.

You also took a loss on New England. My two wins were Tennessee, and I'll admit that was a lucky one on the Tennessee Titans. But, hey, I'll take it for sure. Washington also coming through for me again. Minnesota, Green Bay, and the Cowboys Fallin for me. You hit an upset pick. You pick San Francisco to not only beat that spread, but beat the Rams straight up, and they did it. So kudos to you.

11, 18, and 1 now on the season. 16, 13, and 1 for me. Our consensus record fell to 4 and 5 because of those 6. stinking Dallas Cowboys. Anything from last week stand out to you before we get into week seven picks? No, I think everyone thought that any Dalton would be okay. I think they're now rethinking that. I'm not sure he's the answer as far as turning the Cowboys' luck around.

They really are quite a bunch. But yeah, your Cardinals came through for you. But obviously you jumped out the bandwagon a little quick there. But they look good. I don't know. Who knows if they look good or if that was all the Cowboys being terrible. I think it was a little of both, but I'm happy you bring that up because we are going to definitely talk about what is a marquee game between the Seahawks and Cardinals and now Sunday Night Football for this week. We're going to have some picks on that one.

But that, of course, that's Sunday night football. As at the end of the show, we start with the Sunday early slate week seven consensus lines from Vegas Insider. The first game that we get to, Browns and Bengals, already the second meeting between these two teams. So unless they both somehow make the playoffs, this will be the last time the two Ohio teams see one another this year. Browns minus three and a half in Cincinnati, 50 and a half is the over, under on this one. Vic, you back the Browns. Thinking a bounce back after last week's drubbing at the hands of the Steelers.

That's the way I lean to, but I'm not making it one of my five. Why do you feel good enough to make it one of your five? I think the defense should be okay. Should be able to get some pressure on Joe Burrow. Obviously, he doesn't have a lot of, his own lines not great. It's been kind of beat up. He's had some nice spots, also some rough spots this year. I think this won't be a rough spot for him and the Bengals.

I think the Browns are just a better team. Definitely, I should be a little mad about the way they were handled last week by the Steelers. Yeah, you know, at first I was actually leaning toward Cincinnati just because they have shown some life. They are, wait, let me pull it up, let me grab it here. They're four and two against the spread so far this season. So it's a team that has enough of an offense to make things interesting. but then I started thinking about the Browns and the way they've played this year.

Their two losses have made them look really bad, but they were to Baltimore and Pittsburgh both on the road. So a little bit lopsided in terms of how bad they looked in those games. They beat Cincinnati. They beat a better-than-they-seem Washington team, I think. They crushed Dallas in Dallas. They beat Indianapolis. So you weigh the Browns wins against the Browns losses,

and even though those losses were very ugly, they're understandably ugly, given the opponent. So that's what has me leaning in the direction of the Browns, but not one that I want to back to make one of my five. That was a tough backdoor cover the first time these two teams played. It felt like the Browns were the right pick all game in week two. That was a Thursday night game in week two, and then the Bengals snuck in a backdoor cover right at the end of it. So Brown's looking for a little bit of cover, a little bit of against the spread revenge in Cincinnati this week. We're not going to go over every single game the way that we have in past weeks.

We're definitely going to go obviously over all the games that we have picks on. We're going to try to save a little bit of time by not running through every single game and maybe just picking a few here or there among the ones that we are not picking. So I'm going to skip past Washington and Dallas. I will say that I actually initially had Washington as a pick here, but I don't know. I mean, Washington has the worst point differential in the NFC. It's not like they are really much to write home about either.

So with the way the NFC East has played this week, we're both feeling, let's just leave it alone. or not this week this season. Let's just leave this game alone, move right past it. One game that we don't have a pick on that I do want to bring up to you is the Saints and Panthers, Saints minus seven and a half, 51 is the over-under. This is one where I was leaning toward New Orleans and also one where I toyed with putting it in my five, but I just couldn't quite get all the way there.

Carolina, probably not going to be going to the playoffs, but this is not a bad team in the first year of the Matt Ruhle era. They were right there with the Bears in a game that it felt like they maybe shouldn't have been, I felt like the bears were in control of it, but they were right there. They had an opportunity to tie it late. An interception ended the game. But seven and a half with a still compromised Michael Thomas. Matt hasn't practiced on Wednesday or Thursday because of now a hamstring injury.

Maybe a few too many points for the Saints here. Yeah, I've been impressed with Matt Ruhl. I think this is the Teddy Bridgewater revenge game. I think he's been playing pretty well. I think there's definitely more for him to do than offenses. The ceiling is pretty high for him this year. So I have to be able to stay close if not we're not right. Yeah, it's an interesting game.

You think they could win this one outright? It's possible. I think their offense, like you said, their offense is pretty good. The receivers are pretty good. I think Mike Davis has been fine in place of McCaffrey. And I got Bridgewater, I think he's a – I've never been a huge fan of his bar, a guy who thinks he's had a huge upside. But I think the coaching staff has done a nice job with him,

and he's definitely using his skill set pretty well this year. All right, man, let's move this on to the next one, somewhere where we do both have picks. And we have the same pick. Bills at Jets, minus 13 is the line. on the bills at the Jets. I mean, is this one as simple as it seems to both of us, Vic? Forty-five is the over-under, I should say, but is this as simple as it seems? I mean, the Jets have just been absolutely atrocious. Doesn't matter who the quarterback is. As of our recording, which is on

Thursday afternoon, it sounds like Sam Darnold might be able to get back out there for the Jets, but at the same time, no practice on Thursday for Jameson Crowder with the groin injury. I mean, it just doesn't really seem to matter. It feels like the sort of game where the bills can strip things down to the bare bones, play like a B-minus game. game and get out of there with one of the most comfortable 27-0-0 victories you've ever seen in your life? They should. I mean, I think the bookmakers can't make the line high enough. I think the jets are totally, they've totally tanked, totally make no bones about. They've traded away players. They've bench players. They're really, really bad. I think they, uh, they see the Jaguars kind of

hanging around in the Trevor Lawrence Derby. They've got to make sure they keep losing. So I think they will keep losing the rest of the year, both straight up and against the spread. Yeah, I mean, there's really no bad way to attack the Jets. And maybe that's something. something that we keep on doing, right? They are one of two teams that is 0 and 6 against the spread this year. The other one being the Dallas Cowboys. So maybe I should reconsider that Washington football's pick and go with them. It's just a pick and spread in that game. But I think the Jets need to show us a little something before we are even remotely concerned with them beating a spread and against a very good team like the Bills coming off a couple of tough losses to two really good

teams, right? Games where they hung tough against both the Titans and the Chiefs. The Bills had their schedule messed with because of the Titans COVID issues. So two impressive performances, even in losses, I think, from the Buffalo team. And the one real weakness we've seen so far from the bills this year is the run defense, but the Jets are just not equipped to attack that weakness. They're really not equipped to attack any weakness, but they're definitely not equipped without Levi-on-Bel on the roster to attack the weakness. I mean, how many carries would Frank Gore need to get to get to $200?

yards, like 29? Maybe over. I just think if you lose the Frank Gorland running attack, you guys just tip your cap and move on. That shouldn't happen. Yeah, so we like the bills to cover the 13 in this one. You know, I said I'm not going to mention every single game, but then I look down at our sheet, and we have so many different picks that we're almost already going to be talking about every single game.

So I'm just going to throw the Packers and Texans in. This is one where we do not have a pick from either of us. Packers are favored by three and a half in Houston. 57 is the over under. You know the play I like in this, Vic, is the over. And it feels almost too good to be true, too easy to be true, but two great offense, two past games that have been really effective for most of the time this season. Obviously, the Packers didn't look that way last year.

The Texans have bounced back in a big way, or last week, Texans have bounced back in a big way over their last two games. I think this game goes way over. I don't see either defense slowing things down. I lean toward the Texans just because of the points factor. It's not one that I feel super confident in. I love the over, though. Yeah, I'm on the same boat. I think, if anything, the Packers, the old line problems are a little concerning.

You can see Houston getting after Air Rogers a little bit. So that would be the one thing that might not totally sell me on the over if they were able to harass them like the Bucks did last week. But I agree. Both offenses are really good. And I think it's the Texans. They should have won last week. So I'm not sure what their morale is. But, like you said, the offense definitely been much better since they fired Bill O'Brien.

So definitely is a reason enough to back him here, I think. Maybe this is the week that convinces the Packers to go out and make the trade for the hometown guy in J.J. Watt. Maybe they finally see enough of him in person to go and make that move something that's been rumored about, something are Packers and Texans beatwriters. Matt Schneidman on the Packers, Aaron Reese on the Texans, got together and wrote about. So maybe this is something CNN up close and personal tips the scales for the Packers. Let's move on to one of the real marquee games on Sunday Titans, 5-0, Steelers. 5 and O getting together in Tennessee.

Titans are minus 1. As of right now, you'll see this maybe minus 1 and a half. It could get up to minus 2. Some places you might even see the Steelers favored. So a range of available lines in this game. We are using Titans minus 1 as the Vegas Insider Consensus. And I like the Steelers, Vic. I am making the Steelers one of my five picks.

I think they are built to make Tennessee's defense pay for its weaknesses. And, you know, the Titans scare me. I got to tip my cap. This is a very good team. This is a team that really now, you know, we have 16 games worth of Ryan Tannahill as the starter for the Titans. And they have been excellent in those 16 games. He has played like a real MVP in those 16 games. And what scares me the most about the Titans offensively is that they really make no secret about what they're going to do. They're going to Derek Henry U to death. They are going to be very efficient in the passing game. They have two guys who they like to lean on in A.J. Brown and Johnny Smith, although Jonu dealing with a little bit of an injury. week they get Corey Davis back, but the teams that really scare you are the ones that you basically know what they're going to try to do coming into every game and no matter what they can still do it. So that has me a little bit scared, but we love this Pittsburgh defense and what really pushed it over the top for me, Vic, is the Taylor-Lawain injury. I think that's going to be a real big killer for this Tennessee offense. And that's enough for me to say in a game that basically is an even matchup

between two AFC heavyweights. No one would be surprised if this were the AFC championship game. I think an injury like that, especially this being their first game without Taylor LeWan, so they're sort of still figuring out what the moving parts are going to be on that line in a very tough matchup against Pittsburgh's defense. That's enough for me to tip the scales, trust the Steelers to win, and that's all they got to do. They win this game. They beat the spread.

So I'm going to go with Pittsburgh as one of my five picks. Yeah, I think that's a good pick. I think there are only a handful of good defenses in NFL right now, and Pittsburgh's got one of them I think you mentioned the Lawan injury is a big deal. I also think the Steelers have done a nice job with Chase Claypool. I'm not sure. The teams haven't figured out how to stop him yet. So I think their offense is also doing this job as well.

So I think they're playing pretty good all-around football. So I think it's a good spot for them. Yeah, this is going to be a great game. I don't think the Steelers run away with it by any stretch of the imagination. Even with that LeWan injury, I think this is going to be a game that lives up to the billing. But I'm going to mark down the Steelers. My second one. We both got two apiece here in the early slate.

Let's move on to the late window, of course, Buccaneers Raiders, as of this recording, scheduled to be in that window. But you're right up there close to the situation. Is it looking like there's any chance of it playing in that window, or if this game plays this week, is it more likely going to be Monday or Tuesday? There's still a small chance. And right now, the only player has tested positive is Trent Brown. They have like six guys who are kind of an isolation. So if those tests keep coming up negative, then they probably will play the game on Sunday.

But if anything happens as far as I'm not positive, they're not able to move the game on Monday or Tuesday because of the time change. So I think I'll get played either way, but it's not sure when. All right, keep an eye on this with us here. Obviously, Vic and his fellow Raiders beat writer, Sean Reed, all over this. You can get everything you need on Raiders and Buccaneers here at the Athletic. Let's move on to our next game in the late window.

Patriots and 49ers, Patriots at home, favored by two, 43 and a half, is the over-under. You are making a pick on this game. Buy and Low on the New England Patriots. Why do you believe in a bounce back for them in this game? I think it's a good spot. They're back home.

Obviously, they had a rough game last week. They had a lot of russ because of all the COVID stuff. They hadn't played for a while. So I have faith in Bill Belichick and Cam Newton and kind of get it figured out. And the 90s, that was a big win for them last week. I'm not sure the nines are all the way back to where they, you know, people think they are.

And I mean, the range and emotions is so funny. like, oh, they're terrible. Now it's, oh, they're back. Jimmy G. Jimmy G is back, baby. So I think it's still somewhere in the middle. I think all are asking the Patriots is to win pretty much. It's a minus two spread. So win the game at home against a good team.

I think that's definitely reasonable to ask for. I thought I liked the 49ers when I first saw this line, but it just felt a little too fishy. It's sort of like what you say. Like, it's a good buy low spot on the Patriots, and that's what has me scared about the 49ers is just, like after what we saw from these teams last week, right? Patriots are 10-point favorites and they lose to Denver by six.

The 49ers, the team that people are thinking are totally dead, show up and have a really good game beating the Rams in a game that they totally controlled, right? I mean, the score made it look sort of kind of close, but the 49ers were in control of that game, really from the jump. And so to see this only be a two-point spread, it feels a little fishy, right? It feels like they are really begging you to take the 49ers. And I don't know, something about them wanting to do that makes me want to stay away. So I'm staying away.

I do lean 49ers. I understand why you're back in the Patriots. I am not back in anyone. I will back to play in this next game. Another one that feels a little fishy, and I'm going to trust that fishy smell and go with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are nine and a half point favorites at Denver. This game is in Denver.

Chiefs hitting the road to take on the Broncos. 46 is the over-under in this one. Hats off to Denver. They've been in mostly every game they've played this season. They have only had their starting quarterback available for like two and a half games. He got hurt in week two. Drew Locke did against the Steelers, and they stayed in that game. They really came back in that one.

They've been in mostly every game they've played this season. So Vic Fangio and the staff there deserve a ton of credit for being able to do what they've done and pulled off an impressive victory shutting down the Patriots offense a week ago. But we also saw the offensive deficiencies that the Broncos have on their side of the ball. And you can say everything that should be said about Drew Locke. It was his first game back. He was maybe a little rushed back from that shoulder. injury, maybe didn't necessarily play as bad as some of the stats would suggest in that game.

But let me tell you something you can't do, Vic. You can't settle for field goals, even if it's six of them, and come anywhere near beating the Kansas City Chiefs, no matter how good your defense is to, I feel really good about the Chiefs in this game. That was an offense that we saw get going. And what you like from the offense last week was they read the situation, right? Andy Reid read the situation. It was a sloppy game, a sloppy environment against the bills.

The bills were clearly determined to not get beat by Travis Kelsey and Tyreek Hill playing in such a deep shell. And they said, all right, you want to do that? Well, we can feed Clyde Edwards-Helair 26 times and he's going to run it for 161 yards. And that was a really impressive showing from the Chief's offense. It seems like there's really no shortage of what they can do offensively. So I'm going to just trust the clearly better team in this one and go with the Chiefs. I think whether we see Levy on Bell or not in this game is still left to be determined. But, yeah, I don't think we need to see too much of him in his first game as a chief.

Like the offense here, like the matchup, don't really fear what the Broncos' offense can do. And again, if this is a game, we know how different the Chief's defense can play when they get a lead. If they do get out to a lead in this one, a two-score lead early, they're able to pin the years back. Let Chris Jones let them fly at that Broncos offense. At Drew Locke, it could be a really ugly game for this offense. So give me the Chiefs. Do you have a lean in this one at all, even though you're not putting it in your five? Yeah, I'm with you.

It's a fishy spread. That's a big number on the road, especially for offense, has not been totally explosive, like, as you're used to them being. But I think that's what the bookmakers want, do you think? I think definitely, Pat Mahomes can get it going, Tyrake Hill and Travis Kelsey at any point. So I think if they get going like they usually have in the past, they can roll up a big number, and I think that number will be enough to cover the spread. So I do think it's definitely caught my eye. Like, that's a lot of points. Coming off, you know, the Broncos winning a game last week, but I think you can take the risk in a lay the point. We've got another big spread in the last game of the late window on Sunday. Chargers minus eight at home against the Jaguars. 49 is the over under. Vic, I was this close. If you could see what I was doing, I'm, you know, I've got the, I've got the fingers up. I was this close to joining you on the chargers, but there were just a handful of games I liked a little bit better. So they're just on the outside looking in for me. I am with you. I lean chargers. You go chargers. I mean, we, we love what we've seen from this team and Justin Herbert. right since he's taking over as the starter.

What makes it one of your favorite five plays of the week? I think they're definitely better than the record indicates. They've been in a lot of close games, some tough losses. But I mentioned Herbert's played well. I think the running backs have looked good. Even with Echler being out, like they've done a nice job, something for him. So defense's getting healthier.

They're a pretty solid squad. And I think the other hand, I think the Jags are just, every week they lose by more and more points. They had nice start to the season, but it's been a rough four weeks. I think they've got to be eyeing the jets and saying, hey, we can't win the game. We've got to keep keeping the Trevor Lawrence Derby.

So I think they'll keep losing by a lot of points. Yeah, the one thing that scared me away from it in terms of backing the Chargers with the 8 is, we know that Gardner Minchu is a playoff or a garbage time hero. And that's always going to be there for him. There are enough weapons in that passing game with a fully healthy DJ Chark, Keel and Cole emerging as a useful guy for this team,

that even if the Chargers are up by, you know, 14 late, no one would be surprised to either Jaguars throw up a garbage touchdown to get inside that eight points, which is a little much for me to back as a line bet, but do think that the Chargers are better than that record shows, as you said. And Justin Herbert, I mean, he's done it against the Buccaneers, he's done it against the Chiefs, he's done it against the Saints. Hard to believe that he wouldn't do it against the worst pass defense in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sunday night football, we've got a great one. Seahawks and Cardinals flexed. into this game that was originally supposed to be the Raiders and Buccaneers.

Seahawks are three and a half point favorites in Arizona. 56 is the over under. Vic, at loggerheads on this one, we've got another head-to-head pick. You are on the Seahawks. I am on the Cardinals. I will be the gentleman and let you go first.

Make the case for the Seahawks. I just think the better team. I think you're getting a better, even a better quarterback. I think you're getting a whole round better team. I think the spread's not too out of hand. I think if they win the game, they're probably going to cover the spread. So I think they're not getting, obviously they've got some close wins,

but I'm not sure everyone's totally sold on how great they've been. And I think they deserve a little more credit. Defense's always have been bad, but I think they'll get better. I think they definitely have the tools and the coaches to get better there. So I think they're still on the upswing. I think they'll win this game against a – again, the Cardinals team, I'm not really sure how much to take from that game on Monday if that really was the coming out party or just the Cowboys being terrible.

So I'm a little confused about that game. I think that's totally fair, and I think you're right about everything. Do they have the better quarterback? Of course they have the better quarterback. The Seahawks could arguably have the better quarterback in every game they play this season, and that includes the Chiefs with the way Russell Wilson's play. And I'm not saying that that's necessarily true, but you could definitely make the argument that Russell Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFL going right now the way that he is playing. And they've got the better team.

I agree with that also. I think this is still a fair spread, though, if we consider the three-point bump for being at home for Arizona. and what I like about Arizona in this game is it's a matchup sport, right? It's a matchup sport. And Arizona, I think, is uniquely suited to attack the greatest weakness in Seattle's defense, that being against the pass. I think that we could see some really nice numbers, some really good games out of this Arizona passing game and everyone who is tied to it.

We finally saw a useful game out of Christian Kirk last week. He did it on limited volume, and I'm not sure that those big plays or the one big play is going to be available to him the way it was against Dallas a week ago. But it was still nice to see him get involved in a meaningful way, right? As great as DeAndre Hopkins is, he can't do it all on his own. We need to see someone else in this Arizona passing game step up alongside him. And so I do think that seeing that one big game out of Christian Kirk is a real feather in the cap for the Cardinals going forward.

And if you look at what the Seahawks have done so far this season, you've seen teams that are capable of throwing the ball really get at them. I mean, even teams that are not necessarily the most capable of throwing the ball, take the New England Patriots and Cam Newton throwing for nearly 397 yards against them. I mean, this is a team that if you can throw it, you can stay in it. And I think that's what we're going to see from Arizona in this one. I think we see a big game out of Kyler Murray, and they at least stay in it. They at least keep it within a field goal.

And I think there's enough juice here for them maybe to pull off the upset. So I really like the Cardinals. I feel pretty good about them in this one. I know what the Seahawks are. This is an excellent team, but they're probably not going to 16 and O. And if you start looking through their schedule and look for realistic places for them to take a loss and not even a bad loss. I mean, even though they're favored by this one, three and a half points, I mean, would anyone really bat an eye at them losing a tough game to Arizona? Arizona is a quality team.

They've got an up-and-coming quarterback. They've got an up-and-coming offense. They're a quality team. I mean, that's not an unexplainable loss for them to take. And so I like the Cardinals here. Chandler Jones being out obviously is a concern, but they got their feet wet with that last week, adapt their defensive schemes.

And listen, even with Chandler Jones, you're probably not doing a whole lot to slow down Seattle's offense and Russell Wilson and what they've been able to do so far this season. This is a game that is going to have to be won and stayed close with on the offensive side for Arizona. And I think they can do that. So we've got another head-to-head game here, Vic. What's our head-to-head record?

We haven't had a ton of head-to-head. Let me pull that back up really. quick. I think it's just two games, right? Yeah, I am 1-0-1. We had the push week 1 or week 2, and then I got a win in week 6. I can't remember, no, week 5. I can't remember the game off the top of my head. So 1-1. So we're adding to our head-to-head record here. Hopefully, I'd like to be 2-0-1 after this week. That sounds decent to me.

And it should be a fun game, right? No matter what, this should be a game that lives up to the billing between the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Monday night football, Rams and Bears. Rams are six-point favorites at home in L.A. with the Bears coming to town. Forty-five is the over-under in this one. And if you've been keeping count over what we've done here, you might realize that I still have one pick to make.

Obviously, that will be done here on Monday Night Football. And Vic, I am taking the Chicago Bears. For me, it's just too many points for this Rams team to be laying against a Bears team that has a really, really good defense. I mean, there is still plenty of work to be done on the, offensive side of the ball for the Bears, but we are seeing this defense once again carry this team, an elite past defense, a run defense that can be had, and I worry about Darrell Henderson in this game, but an elite past defense that we're seeing from the Chicago Bears. And the Bears and

Rams have a lot of recent history with one another. When you combine the NFC North versus NFC West games that we've had in recent seasons, and the Bears and Rams both winning their division a couple of years ago, so they had that carryover game last year. The Bears have seen this. The Bears have seen this Sean McFay offense. You know, a lot of the same personnel, obviously each year is its own thing, but a lot of the same personnel on both sides here, the Bears have seen this offense, and they have done quite well against this offense defensively

over the last couple of seasons. And then one last thing that I think really put me over the top here. Do you know off the top of your head who the Rams' four wins are against this season? No. They're four and two. It's a four-and-two team. Do you know who the four wins are against? Bad teams. Yes. Bad teams that all have something in common.

They all play in the same division, and that division is the NFC East. The Rams beat the Cowboys in Week 1, they beat the Eagles in Week 2, then they lost to the Bills, they beat the Giants in Week 4, they beat the Washington Football's in Week 5, and then last week they lost to the 49ers. So all you can do is beat the team that's across the field from you, and the Bills have done that, or the Rams have done that, four out of six games they've played this season,

but it's four pretty bad teams that they have taken. taken down in their four games. So this is a really tough test. It's probably the toughest defense. It's definitely the toughest defensive test that this Rams offense has faced this season. I'm not saying the Bears go in and win. I toyed around with it as my upset pick, but I just think that's too many points for a Rams team that really hasn't beaten anyone this season and gets a really tough defense in Chicago this week. Yeah, I'm with you. I almost made the Bears one of my picks as well. I think, like I mentioned earlier, I'm going to go with the top defenses this year a lot more on the rest of the way. There's only a handful of teams that can play defense pretty well.

Bears are one of them. I think it's a good spot for him. I was Nick Foles, who knows what you're getting with that guy, but I think they should be able to score some points, enough points where I like your bet. I think it's a good pick. All right, well, let's wrap it up here. Your five for this week. Browns, they are minus three and a half at Cincinnati. You've got the bills minus 13 at the New York Jets. You have got the New England Patriots, minus two at home against the 49ers, the Seahawks minus three and a half at Arizona. and the Chargers, minus eight against the Jaguars. I am going with the bills also, minus 13 at the Jets.

I've got the Steelers plus one at Tennessee. I've got the Kansas City Chiefs, minus nine and a half in Denver. The Cardinals at home catching three and a half against the Seahawks. And finally the Bears, they are getting six in Los Angeles. Upset pick for you is? I guess I'm going with the Panthers. We're going with the Teddy Bridgewater Special. I think he might be the best quarterback in the game at this point.

I think there weren't a lot of good-looking dogs otherwise, I thought, in this card. So that's the one where I thought they might, I think they're going to cover. So now it's a question, can they actually win the game? I think they can. It's the friendliest revenge game ever, right? It's not like Teddy and the Saints have any bad blood whatsoever. Just found a place to start and obviously got everything on track after that gruesome injury in Minnesota back with the Saints last season. So a very friendly revenge game, but a revenge game nonetheless for Teddy Bridgewater.

I'm going to go with the Cardinals. I say they pull off the upset. They win this game at home. They knock the C-Hawks from the ranks of the unbeaten. And either way, I think it's going to be, I'll be very disappointed if it doesn't live up to its billing. Because with the way these two teams have played and the way these two offenses can get going, I think it is a game that should live up to the billing. Let's turn things over to Survivor really quick.

If you've got the bills, no reason to get cute, right? I mean, it should just be, Survivor should just be, unless you've already used the Jets' opponent, pick against the Jets. Right, or the Jags. The Jags are back up there, pretty much. I think if you already have used those teams, let's say you've used the Bills, you've used the Chargers. I can see going to the Saints, going against that upset pick there, Vic.

I can see that's not a bad play. And I think the Chiefs as well, it's hard to imagine them taking another loss as frisky as Denver has been. But Bills and Chargers, those are our top two plays. If you have one of those two available, make them your Survivor pick. And that is going to do it.

for this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. The three of us, me, Derek Van Riper, and Vic Tafer, will be right back here next Friday to get you set in the DFS and against the spread worlds. Until then, thanks for listening. Have a great weekend and enjoy all of the Week 7 action. This was the Athletic Football Show.