The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 8 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: October 30, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 8 DFS slate. They discuss Alvin Kamara chalk, the appeal of Titans-Bengals, the enduring bargain on Keenan Allen, and more.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every Week 8 game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 29:39). Can the Dolphins spring the upset on the Rams in Tua's first start—or at least stay within 3.5 points? Can the Seahawks bounce back against the 49ers? Can the Bills officially take the AFC East torch from the Patriots? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more. Plus, a difference of opinion on this week's marquee game between the Steelers and Ravens.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Hello, everybody. The weekend is here, and we are ready to celebrate with you on the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show Friday, October 30th, Halloween, right around the corner, get ready for what we hope is not a spooky weekend, at least in terms of DFS, gambling, anything like that. That's what we're going to be talking about here on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and Athletic Football Show.

I am Michael Beller, joined by Derek Van Ruff. DVR. Weekend is here. How you doing? Doing really well and excited to get another great weekend games in. It's one of those weeks that it's not quite as loaded as last week in terms of there being kind of chalk everywhere as you're building lineups, but there's still a lot of interesting ways to put great lineups together. Yeah, I'm totally with you there and we're going to start right at the running back position. I'm just going to jump right in because you say there aren't a lot of chalk options. To me, that makes it even harder to fade the Alvin Camara chalk at $8,200. Saints are in Chicago to take on the Bears. We have beat this theme over the head, really all season

long, that you can run on this Bears team. And for anyone who hasn't seen the Bears play, but finally did see them on Monday Night Football last week against the Rams, you saw with what Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson did against the Bears that you can indeed run on this team. It's another week where perhaps the Saints are going to be playing without Michael Thomas. We know what Alvin Camara's role has been in a Michael Thomasless offense at $8,200 for Alvin Camara. This is the sort of chalk I want in on. And I feel like until he is being treated as 2019 Christian McCaffrey, it's going to be hard for me to keep Alvin Camara out of any of my lineups. I think that's fair. I think one of the challenges people are going to find as they try and

build a lineup with Alvin Camara in it is that you're going to be missing out on something else that you like. But there's enough min salary or near min salary players. especially at wide receiver this week, that I think you can find the extra few hundred bucks that it's going to take to pay up. And I think in that 6K range where we often look for those running back cornerstones, we still have a few options that look really good.

I think Kareem Hunt and Josh Jacobs going up against each other in that Cleveland-Las Vegas matchup is probably a good place to start too. You could either put one of those guys with Camara, maybe put both of them in the lineup with Camara and use one as the flex if you're talking about more of a cash game sort of build because I think things do start to fall apart as you get cheaper. The good news is there's a few guys who I think we both like who are even cheaper yet that are

at least worth considering for that flex spot or for that third spot. So you do have a few creative builds with the running backs. And the first question you have to answer is whether or not you're going to lock in Elvin Camara or not. I think my base lineup will have them in it. I would say if I were building 10 lineups, I probably won't have 10 different lineups this week. I would have three with Camara in it. I think the field might be closer to four or five. Yeah, I think that's fair.

I think that's definitely a fair way to go. No matter what your views are on Alvin Camara, I could see that being the tack to take this week. And in that same range where you find Kreme Hunt and Josh Jacobs, I look at James Connor. And I know it's a tough match. Baltimore Ravens, it's the marquee game of the week, Steelers and Ravens.

But the thing that I look at with James Connor is the $6,400 price, is just too low for James Connor, bottom line. I think this is way too much of an overestimation of what the matchup is here, because James Connor is going to get his touches. We talked about this last week, and why I liked him so much last week is because the touches are always there. You take out the week one game where he got hurt against the Giants. Every other game this season, he has had a minimum of 18 opportunities, meaning carries plus targets.

That's just the floor for James Connor, and that's what you're going to get out of him. every single game. Doesn't matter if he's going up against a soft defense, a strong defense, somewhere in the middle. That's always going to be there for him. And this is a game that we expect to be close. Ravens are favored by three and a half. Two good offenses, two good defenses. It's just two good teams. And just because it's a good defense doesn't mean they're going to completely stifle what Pittsburgh wants to do. I just think that the draft king's pricing here is putting way too much stock into what's a tough matchup and not enough stock into the fact that Conner has a locked-in workhorse role, and he's just a good player.

Yeah, I mean, I think the setup is still really good volume-wise week-to-week. I think Conner probably fits the bill as more of a tournament play for me at running back than a cash game option, despite that high touch floor. I think part of that is the Ravens' defense has been generally good against running backs, but when you start looking at the PPR format, especially because the Ravens often hold leads, teams often throw to their running backs against them, and Connor at least can catch some passes and kind of prop up his floor that way. I think the best running back performance against them in PPR leagues this season

actually came from Antonio Gibson back in week four, just over 22 PPR points because he had four for 82 as a pass catcher on top of 13 carries, 46 yards, and a TD. So it might be kind of an inefficient volume day on the ground for Connor, but a busy enough day in the passing game to sort of prop him up. And because that game, I think, can kind of track into the shootout range. It might not be the highest scoring game of the day, but I think it can at least be upper half of the board. That brings some extra appeal to someone like Connor as well. All right, let's hit on at least three more situations here that both of us have mentioned in our show sheet.

Let's talk about Jonathan Taylor in that same exact range, $6,600 here. Colts coming off a buy. They head to Detroit. There are three-point favorites. I actually like Detroit in this game, but still Jonathan Taylor, someone who I think is interesting after a buy. It's a familiar theme, season after season. Rookies getting larger workloads after a buy, and I think it becomes even more of a thing, potentially this year, given the fact that all these rookies didn't have the usual mini-camp, training camp, that rhythm, didn't have any preseason

games. So perhaps the Colts use the two weeks to install more things, put more things on Jonathan Taylor's plates. He's not someone I love. He's not someone I am fading either. My problem with him is I find it hard. If I'm going to spend somewhere in that range, I just like all the other guys we've talked about more. Yeah, I think that's probably a good way to look at Taylor. And I mean, the thing that I think I'd be a little bit concerned about, even with him coming off the by week, he's been pretty consistently in the 14 to 18 touch range, even in a backfield where there's been plenty of opportunity since Marlon Mack's injury. One time this season, we saw him get up over 20 touches. It was 28 against Minnesota, and that was back in week two. So I have reason to believe that maybe he gets into the 18 to 20 range more consistently. But I wonder if they're just the type of team that even though they have a guy that can be a three down back in Jonathan Taylor, if they're still not going to spread the ball around a little bit more than that backfield than we'd like them to.

It's a good spot overall. I mean, I don't fear the Lions defense. A 50 over under. Colts favored by two and a half to close enough game again, sort of back and forth. There's a few ways Taylor's going to get to the higher end even of that 14 to 18 touch work. even if he's not going to get a lot more than that. Let's take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs backfield here, Clyde Edwards O'Lear and Levyon Bell.

19 and a half is the spread in this game with the Chiefs welcoming the Jets to town. What that says to me is there's really no bad way to invest in this backfield. You can either take a shot at a $6,500 Edwards-Alair, or you can play the revenge game narrative, play a little bit down for Levyon Bell at 4,600. He is a guy who I like quite a bit, actually, as that flex play, sitting at 4, $600. And last week, you look at how involved he got, six carries for 39 yards. He ran 10 routes.

Edwards Aller ran 11 routes, so he was getting as much usage. He didn't get the targets that Edwards-Alair got, but he was out there running those routes basically one-for-one with CEH. And again, I just don't think there's a bad way to get involved with either of these chiefs running backs, given the matchup, given the expected game flow, given the way that they were used in their first game as teammates. I can see arguments for both of these guys. my favorite way is to go with Leveon,

but that's just because of a build rather than thinking that he is the better play in a vacuum than C.E.H. Right. You look at C.E.H. He's priced in that mid-6K range at 6,500. The projected usage, according to Rodo Grinders, is under 5% right now,

which that seems like an overreaction. I realize there's the Bell narrative. And Bell, I thought, in his limited touches, looked pretty good last week in his chief's debut. So I know you do have to account for him But if there was ever a week to be excited really about both backs, it has to be one in which the chiefs are favored by 19 and a half. Their implied total is over 34 points this week. That's a ton.

It's crazy. Five touchdowns that we're looking at kind of spreading out around this offense. So I could see both actually making value this week and kind of a rare twist. I don't think that's going to be viable more often than not. So I would also put Edwards-Hillair in that tournament mode just because of the uncertainty. certainty with Bell, but he's certainly a tournament play with a high ceiling given the circumstances this week against the Jets. That's going to be fun. I usually don't. I mean, narrative games are, revenge games are fun to talk about, the narrative's fun to joke around about. Obviously, we know they're not really a thing. But if there were a revenge game that was a thing, Levyon Bell getting to face the Jets two weeks after he was released after Adam Gase basically hated him from day one. I mean, if revenge games are a thing, this is the one where it is going to be a thing. So I'm buying into it a little bit.

I have to admit this week. One more thing, then we'll move on to the wide receiver position. How about Miles Gaskin? This guy just can't seem to get any respect from the Draft King's pricing algorithm. $5,200 is where we find Miles Gaskin this week. And I can't figure it out, Derek. This guy gets volume every single week. I mean, maybe there's a little bit of concern about Tuatung of Iloa making his first start,

but I don't think it should matter. And totally game script independent, this guy, because of his activity in the passing game. I always like to think of the Draft King's pricing algorithm as the banker on deal or no deal, where, you know, it looks like there's a person up there in the shadows making some decisions, and obviously it's not. But anyway, I just, I don't know what's going on with Gaskin because he's had 20 or more touches in three of his last four games. He has a steady role in the passing game.

So if the Rams have an early lead or leading throughout even, it's not as though Miles Gaskin is likely to disappear from the game plan. I think that bodes really well for him as well. So I think you can make a pretty strong case for Gaskin being a bit more of a core play. And if you consider Gaskin a nice way to get the extra thousand bucks or so that you're going to need to get to Elvin Camara, that's a nice tandem to consider. So what goes wrong for Miles Gaskin? To me, it's like injury only at this point. You should probably be a $6,000 running back based on the way the dolphins have used them. It is. I think it's injury only or in this week specifically Tua being a total disaster against a tough Rams defense, certainly. But I don't think, I mean, injury, of course, we can't predict it could happen to anyone at any moment. And I don't think there's a real risk of Tua being a total disaster. So I'm with you just totally underpriced at the $5,200 tag that he brings into week eight, let's move things over to wide receiver. Let's start again with right off the top, the most expensive guy, Devante Adams, $8,800 coming off a monster game, nearly 200 yards, touchdowns in the Packers win a week ago. Can you squeeze him in at 8,800? Are you willing to make

the sacrifices, I guess is the better way to put that to get an $8,800 Devante Adams into your lineups? As somebody who very sadly didn't have admitted my builds, again, I thought I was going to build a ton of lineups last weekend. I built a reasonable number and it was low enough where I didn't get to Adams. I feel like I've missed out in a big way. I don't want to go out of my way to push myself down this path, given the price. 8,800 for the top receiver on the board is full freight. And I don't think you need to do that. I think you can find enough ceiling at the wide receiver position.

Yet again, right around that $6,000 price point where you can build mostly out of that group. And again, if you're building 10 lineups, yeah, maybe you want to have Adams in one or two of them, but the field might be more aggressive than that. the field might have them in two or three. So you have to consider that as a possible list could go wrong, and he's clearly the number one pass catcher in that offense. The secondary options, I mean, even if Ellen Lazard gets back into the equation, no one they currently have is going to really eat into the Devante Adams target share whatsoever.

So he has that going for him. He kind of has that DeAndre Hopkins sort of like peak in Houston sort of floor, week in and week out. And a lot of times that is worth paying for. but I don't think there's enough discounted players at the bottom to put them in a lineup with Camara. And I think it's more important to have Camara by comparison when you start looking at the way the two positions and the rest of your lineup comes together. And $600 in savings, Camara versus Devante Adams. So you look at that group of guys around that $6,000 mark who jumps out at you as someone who maybe has the same ceiling that Devante Adams has at $25, $26, $2,700 cheaper of a price.

Yeah, I mean, I think Keenan Allen, yet again, is the kind of bargain play. It's similar to what we talked about with Gaskin. I mean, obviously, Allen's got a much longer track record, but especially with Justin Herbert playing so well. And I know Herbert's really spreading the ball around in a way that's frustrated some of us. It's been kind of a rough couple of stacks in the last couple of weeks with Herbert, with some of the guys that you expect to get touchdowns, not getting them, but hey, that's fantasy for you. But Keenan Allen at 6,200, yet again, one of the more undervalued plays at a bare minimum, a guy that you click in almost immediately as you're building a cash game lineup. I think he brings probably as much ceiling as you would expect from the Seattle receivers, in part because both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalfe are healthy, right?

And they cost more, and they've got reasonably difficult matchups this week. So to me, Keenan Allen's one of the safest, most obvious plays at the wide receiver position. and I'm just surprised that he's not pushing at least into the high $6,000 range. It's not a bad week to fade the Seattle receivers, is it? I mean, you're never going to outright fade Lockett and Metcalf, or you're never going to be surprised to be burned by a fade of Lockett or Metcalf. But if you're going to do it with as high priced as they are, with as many other options as there are at the wide receiver position

in a tough matchup against San Francisco, it feels like the week to do it if you were trying to play the opposite side of things and just not get in on the Seattle offense. Yeah, and again, it's sort of like that feeling I have, not having used Adams in lineups last weekend, you feel like you missed out and you want to chase that, but usually that comes with an added price, and I think it's easy enough to bring that ceiling with other players

that you don't have to overpay for it with the Seattle receivers. I know with the running game possibly being a mess, I mean, no Chris Carson, we talked about Carlos Hyde a little earlier in the week, being dinged up, but that could limit what they do on the ground, but it's still a tough enough matchup where it's not just an automatic 25 plus from Blockett and an automatic 25 plus from D.K. Metcalf.

So I'm with you. I think generally I'm not as aggressive with the Seattle receivers this week as I ordinarily would want to be. All right, here's a couple of guys who I am feeling pretty aggressive about and guys who I actually like it a little bit better dollar for dollar than Devante Adams.

A.J. Brown and Tyler Boyd, Titans and Bengals, going against one another. This feels like the sort of game that I want to attack, and I want to attack the passing games. We'll talk about the quarterbacks in a little bit here, but I like these two passing games going up against the respective defenses that they're going to be facing. You've got A.J. Brown at 6900.

Tyler Boyd at 6,600. Tyler Boyd is just a volume monster at this point, even with the emergence of T. Higgins and the reemergence of A.J. Green. Tyler Boyd is still getting double-digit targets basically every single week, speaks to the sort of volume that Joe Burrow is getting in the past. the game. This Titans defense, not good. This is sort of like a sneaky and different version of of Seattle where this is a legitimately good team that we could see in the Super Bowl, but they're doing it almost entirely on offense. So I don't think we should be afraid of the Titans' defense.

AJ Brown, even at 6,900, I feel like he isn't being treated as the superstar receiver that he has turned into. Look at what he's done since coming back from the bone bruise. A guy seems to get in the end zone every single game, an acrobatic catch, every single game. And I like pairing those guys with one another playing on a game that I have. think is going to easily play into the mid-50s with Tennessee and Cincinnati. Yeah, we didn't talk about Derek Henry at the top. I mean, he'd be one of your high-priced guys that you'd think about if you're not using Kamara. But 8,000 flat on Henry sort of makes it difficult to get to him this week. So then you start looking at the passing game. The implied

total is over 29 points. I do think you want to try and find some piece of the Titans offense, whether it's paying up for AJ Brown. Maybe it's going to the Johnny Smith option at tight end. There's a few different ways to do it. But A.J. Brown to me, his role is just so stable. I think the price is finally getting close to where it should be, though. It's not like the Keenan Allen situation. Maybe a couple hundred dollars too low, but it's not 500 or 800 lower than it should be at this point. So I think you're kind of getting it closer to a fair price, but they are a team that is better offensively than people give them credit for. I don't know how we're a year and a half into this now. And I was slow to the Titans bandwagon. I'm happily

admitting that. AJ Brown is a really good player. I do think you want to have something coming back the other way on the Cincinnati side. I think the key difference for me thinking about Titan Steelers last week versus Titans Bengals this week. I expect the Titans to be protecting a lead more throughout as opposed to playing catch-up the way they were in week seven. So that would kind of make me think, okay, I definitely want to get someone in that Bengals passing game as the runback for whichever Titan I'm going to play.

Most likely it's Brown. I like Boyd, just like you do. But I do see the appeal in AJ Green. I mean, the usage of the last two weeks gives me enough confidence at the price. He's $4,500 coming off of 15 catches the last two weeks on 24 targets. I'm comfortable throwing him back out there, too. Yeah, I totally agree with you on that. Definitely a guy who you could pair with AJ Brown if you can't get Tyler Boyd into the lineups.

It does save you $1,900 from that AJ, or $2,100. excuse me, from that Tyler Boyd price. Any other cheap guys who you're looking at before we move things over to the quarterback position? Yeah, I mean, I'm keeping an eye on the injuries for the Saints because Mark has Callaway is only 3,500, and I think the status of Alan Robinson is worth monitoring going into the weekend. 3,500 is the price on Darnell Mooney. He continues to take on a larger share of the targets than expected, kind of at the expense of Anthony Miller, unfortunately. Yeah, we'll keep an eye on the Allen Robinson concussion situation still.

making his way through that protocol. All right, quarterback time here. I hinted at it, so I'm just going to jump right into it. Derek, Joe Burrow is my favorite play on the board this week. $6,200. We already talked about the volume we expect both of these passing games in Bengals, Titans to be able to rack up. And, you know, Joe Burrow pretty much delivers for us on a week-by-week basis.

He's had one truly ugly game. That came against Baltimore. I think we're willing to give him a pass on that. It was an ugly game for the entire Cincinnati offense, a 27-3 victory. for the Ravens. Other than that, we've got multiple 300-yard games, multiple three touchdown games for Joe Burrow. It just feels like a really good spot at $6,200, freeing you up to spend up at other places. He is my number one quarterback play of the week. Yeah, I mean, he makes a lot of sense. I think we should maybe bring up the weather for a second. It looks like there's going to be some pretty nasty,

cold and windy conditions in a few games. And fortunately, the Titans Bengals matchup looks like it's going to be less than ideal, but not so bad that you're sitting players down in season long and avoiding them in DFS. I was just looking at the weather report that Kevin Roth, Kevin Roth WX on Twitter puts together. And he's got three games in his red category. Raiders Browns, Vikings Packers, and Saints Bears, all of those games with wins over like 25 mile an hour sustained, which is problematic, right? Because your gusts are going to be a lot worse than that. So passing games suffer. Offense as a whole begins to suffer at a certain point there too.

So you do have to account for that, at least in those few games. I think Pat's Bill's game looks like that could be kind of messy as well. But I think that does narrow the number of viable quarterbacks down quite a bit. I'm with you on Burrow. I think if that weather weren't going to be a major problem for the Raiders, Derek Carr would be just a lock for me this week. because he's cheap, he's playing well, he's spreading the ball around,

and the weapons that he has at his disposal are mostly pretty healthy right now, right? Like there's quite a bit to like, and I think that Brown's team is a little more shootout prone than we would have expected this season as well. So I think as a result of Carr being in a bad situation, weather-wise, Burroughs going to become a lot more popular,

especially at 6,200. You're still saving relative to the rest of the position. I want to ask you, what's your interest level in Jimmy Garapolo? I mean, if you think like Seattle, you're not going to fade. Well, let's think of it this way. Even if you're not going to go after Lockett and Metcalf,

you're probably not expecting them to be completely shut down. You're still expecting that offense to do some damage this week. If that happens, Jimmy Garoppolo having to keep pace should have more volume through the air than usual. So what's your interest level in Garapolo, given that he's 5,400 this week? I like that,

actually, and we've not seen the Seattle defense really stop any quarterback through the air, really no matter who it is. I mean, let's use Cam Newton as an example here. And yes, we are using Cam Newton as an example of a bad quarterback going off against the Seattle defense. The one good game he's had through the air this season came against Seattle. 397 yards, a couple of touchdowns. Maybe just one touch. I can't remember off the top of my head. But point is, it was a good game. And it wasn't just racking up numbers based on volume. It was an efficient game from Cam Newton, too, where we saw. We saw a lot of the time. It was a good game. We some gaudy YPA numbers. This is a defense that pretty much every quarterback has been able to get after this week. Carlos Dunlap coming over to the Seahawks, I don't know if he's going to be ready for this game, but whether he is or he isn't, he's not, you know, a cure-all for what ails the Seattle defense. So at $5,400, basically treating him like a Nick Foles type of quarterback in the DFS market, you've got to feel at least decent, at least even, I mean, what do you really need on him

at 5,400, right? You need them to be QB 15, something like that, and you load up elsewhere, and you hit elsewhere, and you're feeling all right. And I do think that Garapolo comes into this with a better ceiling than that, especially with all the troubles that San Francisco has had in its backfield, with its running backs being healthy. They're not going to totally change their stripes. Kyle Shanahan is still going to want to do what this team does, but I don't know if they're going to be able to lean on this run game, especially if Tevin Coleman's not able to get back. I don't think they can lean on Jared McKinnon and Jamichael Hastie, the way they drew it. it up with Rahim Moster and Tevin Coleman before the season. So all that adds up to maybe more volume than we expect to see from Jimmy Garapolo. So I do like that. I think that's a pretty

good call by you. And let's be honest about what Derek Carr has been this season. I agree with you. I wish that Cleveland game weren't such a concern from a weather perspective because Derek Carr, multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. He's looking like that quarterback that had the Raiders in the playoffs a couple of years ago, 1726 yards, better than eight yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns on the season, just two interceptions. Jake Seeley, our colleague, talks a lot about in the fantasy world how even though these guys who are guys who have to do it all with their arm are good quarterbacks, that they are a little bit lesser of fantasy quarterbacks because you're not going to get any sort of higher floor from them because of what they do

rushing. Derek Carr has been doing it game after game after game to the point where I think we need to take him at face value. We have an emergence of Nelson Agilor in this offense. Darren Waller, one of the best tight ends of the league. Derrickard definitely someone who could be a nice play. Hopefully, that weather eases off a little bit in Cleveland. Anyone else at this position who you look at as either a play or an easy fade for you before we move things over to tight end? I wish I felt confident in my ability to get to the higher priced quarterbacks. I mean, I think Lamar Jackson at 7,400 is really intriguing to me because you're bringing that rushing floor. You're not dealing with.

major weather concerns. I think you're still getting that rushing floor, I should say. Some people are concerned that it's not the same as it was a year ago. But I don't know if I'm going to be able to get up to that 7K range this week. I mean, Rogers is 7,600. Mahomes, 8,100, if you want to go way, way up there. So I think I'm trying to stay in that mid-tier, which means my quarterback pool is actually pretty small this week.

Yeah, I'm totally with you there. And especially when you throw in the weather. concerns in Green Bay. Rogers is the guy who I was getting a little bit excited about if I was going to spend up at this position, considering what we've seen from the Minnesota defense. But if there are some significant weather concerns and if the Packers can play to the six and a half point favorite script that has been laid out before them, maybe they take it out of Rogers' hands a little bit, just not because Rogers can handle it.

We're talking about Aaron Rogers, but, you know, for the obvious reasons that we've already stated. So has me a little bit concerned, probably not going to be paying up for any quarterbacks this week, and I'm probably not going to be paying up for any tight ends this week. I think if you're going to spend, Darren Waller is the place to do it at 5600, but that doesn't really get me going. The middle of this position absolutely does not get me going. Like one guy who I look to right away, as an example, Jimmy Graham.

He's got a lot of touchdown upside to begin with. Alan Robinson is trending in the wrong direction for this game. So Jimmy Graham becomes easily, without question, the best weapon in the red zone through the air on the ground doesn't matter for the Bears. but then you see him at 4,600. It's like, I'm not going to pay $4,600 for Jimmy Graham. That's ridiculous. So it just becomes a position where if I've got the money, I will go after Darren Waller,

but I'm not going to have the money, most likely. And I just look to the cheap guys. It's just not a position where I really want to invest any sort of real resources this week. Yeah, I wonder too. I mean, do you worry a little less about the weather impact on tight ends, you know, maybe being a little more after the catch with their production, as opposed to taking long shots down. field to them. Maybe you can get away with being a little more aggressive weather-wise in some of those

spots. I know Harrison Bryant is cheap. He popped up with that 2 TD game last week. You're saving a lot of money going that route. If you're not going to play Brown, maybe you're not going to play Henry. I'd mentioned John Hsu-Smith a little earlier. 4,100 is really not bad for Johnny Smith, especially on that matchup against the Bengals. The target floor falls out on occasion, though. Only six targets the last two games combined. So there's definitely some risk there, even though it may be worth taking this time around. I mean, this might be a crazy thing, but I think I'm just not even thinking about position. I'm throwing Harrison Bryant in there, $3,200. And I'm just living with whatever he gives me. The two touchdowns last week, the guy is athletic, right? I mean, there's no doubt about that.

And if you throw in what David and Joku did, you had 20 yards and a touchdown two catches to the Brown's tight end room as a whole from a week ago. And without O'Don's, Del Beckham, maybe we start to see a little bit more tight-end usage for this Brown's offense going forward. So I actually am pretty excited about what Harrison Bryant can do for us at just $3,200, totally endorse him as a season-long play as well. Let's wrap things up, Derek. We're going with defense here. For me, just across the board, give me the Packers. $2,900 at home, big favorite, mistake-prone quarterback. Wind could be an issue. I mean, everything adds up for the Packers to be a really strong play, I think, this week. Yeah, I think that definitely makes

I mean, the only thing you start to worry about when the weather gets real bad is that your opportunities for sacks and interceptions go down because the passing game just gets put on ice for a week if it gets real bad. But overall, I mean, 2,900 is certainly a fair price there. I still, if you're not going to use Burrow in your quarterback pool this week, I think the Titans defense going up against Joe Burrow could be viable, though, too, just because you're talking about a rookie who's going to throw it a lot, who still could make mistakes even when he puts up big numbers otherwise. So I think you can kind of live in that 3K range or just a tick below. and still come away with a quality defense this week. It's the range. We love to live in at the defense position,

and we have a few options to do it. We're going to wrap things up for the DFS portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Derek Van Riper, good luck, man. Have a good weekend. Yeah, enjoy the games this week. Okay, we move along now to the gambling portion

of our Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show for this week 8 Friday. And to do that, you know, who's coming on now. Tafer, one of our Raiders beat riders, Vic, how's it going? Going good, man. How are you doing? I'm doing all right, man. I'm doing all right.

I'm sorry that we have to start with an audit. Are you okay with looking back at week seven for a second here and we'll get too ugly, I promise. No, actually, I'm going to log off. I'm done then, so I'll see you later. All right. That's it. That was Vic Tafer. Raiders and Browns getting together this weekend.

We got to have a little fun with it. One and four for you, four and one for me. Your win was the Chargers. and man, Justin Herbert, putting a lot of good things on tape this season. Losses, Cleveland, Buffalo, Seattle, and New England, and the other side of things, that New England team looking pretty hopeless offensively, and now they're going to be without Julian Edelman for a while. I went four-and-one.

I took a two-oh-and-one lead in our head-to-head picks with my Arizona Cardinals, my trusty Arizona Cardinals, not only beating that three-and-a-half-point spread, but also winning the game outright. That was also my upset pick. wins on them as well as the Washington footballs. Pittsburgh and Kansas City loss. Again, this is, I think, the second time where I've gone four in one in a week, and my one loss was the one that I felt the most confident in.

The Bears just embarrassing themselves on Monday night football against the Rams. For the season, I am sitting at 2014 and 1. You were at 12, 22, and 1. Our consensus pick is 4 and 5 so far on the season. And it'll be listener beware. We do have a consensus pick coming at, you for week eight and we are ready to move on to week eight so let's do that again these are lines that come to us courtesy of Vegas insiders consensus pooling together a number of different

books here Vic and I are recording this at 5 p.m. Eastern on Thursday afternoon so that is where things sit at that time things of course probably going to change a little bit here and there but we are going to take the lines as they are right now we are going to start with the early slate on Sunday first game on the board the Indiana Colts, three point favorites. That's an even line, so you won't pay that minus 110 if you take the Colts. Minus three at the Detroit Lions. 50 is the over under in this one, and I'm going to start us off with a pick here, Vic. Detroit Lions are my pick. I admit, I'm a little bit concerned about the perceived coaching gap between Matt Patricia and Frank Reich, but I don't know. I look at this Colts team

and I see a fraudulent bunch. I see a defense that is good, but not, you know, not not last, not 2019 Patriots, not 2018 Bears, not 2017 Jaguars. I don't see a defense that totally controls games, especially when you pair it with an offense that, I mean, are we supposed to be giving them credit for coming back from a 21-0-0 deficit against the Bengals? If anything, I think we penalized them for getting into a 21-0 deficit against the Bengals two weeks ago. I do also worry about Frank Reich having two weeks to prepare for this game with the Colts coming off a buy and the Lions, meanwhile, having to play literally down to the very last second to eke out a win over the Falcons a week ago. But I just don't see this being that big of a difference between these

two teams for the Colts to be three-point favorites on the road against Detroit. That is a little bit of an over-inflating of how good indie is, into my estimation, and maybe not quite enough respect for this Detroit team that is hung tough in a lot of games they've played this year. They should have one more win. It's easy to say that about a lot of teams, but they literally had DeAndre Swift drop a win against the Bears in week one. So I think these teams are a little closer than the line suggests. I'm going to go with the Lions in this one, getting a field goal at home. Since we're already talking about it, in Vicks, which you can check out at the

athletic every single week. What was the pick you made in this one, even though it's not in your top five? Yeah, I went with the Colts because of the bi-week thing. I think the Lions are underrated offensively, but I'm not a big Colts guy's but well documented, but I think he has a good coach. I think having the week off will definitely help. them. I think that you're basically asking to win the game at minus three.

So I think that was the way I went with it. Yeah, it's definitely you know, it's not one that I feel overwhelmingly great about, but again, I look at it and it just feels like we're given maybe a little bit too much credit to the Colts as a team. That is where I get most concerned about this pick is

Frank Reich with a buy against Matt Patricia. I think that's maybe the biggest deficit the Lions face in this one. Next game, up on the board, the Green Bay Packers first place in the NFC North, six and a half point favorites at home against the last place in the NFC North. Minnesota Vikings, 51.5 is the over-under on this game.

This is one of a handful of games that is expected to be affected by weather, significant wind gusts and sustained 25 mile per hour wins expected for this game in Green Bay between the Vikings and the Packers. Vic, you keep us rolling right along here. You've got a pick in this one still going back to the well on those. Minnesota Vikings, what has you trusting these, what, one in five Vikings on the season? Yeah, I can play a little better the last few weeks. I think they were embarrassed in that first game against the Packers.

I think Cook is back this week. The Packers' offensive line is still a little banged up. So I think it's a good spot for a revenge game. I think it'll be a close game. I also could see the Vikings winning it outright. I think they're in a good spot. Oh, winning it outright. Possibly.

In Green Bay. Yeah, it's possible. Again, the Packers, I think the all line injuries are still not out of the wild. with that stuff out of the woods out of the water out of the woods that kind of stuff so um yeah i think they're obviously a great team but that line's also kind of a trap line six and a half i mean they want you to you should want to jump on the packers because they would look so good offensively in every one every one but one but one game this year so but i like the viking i think they are definitely doing better than they wore the first time around it's a little big of a spread i do lean toward the packers

in this one i think that the packers defense can maybe get after uh kirk cousins a little bit and That concerns me. A mistake-prone quarterback on the road. Weather could be a factor. It makes me a little bit worried about what the Vikings bring to the table. Do love the fact that we are almost for sure getting Delvin Cookback for Minnesota's side of things. I think that will bring a calming effect for this Minnesota offense. But it's one that I just don't feel confident enough to go one way or the other,

at least inside my top five. But let's see what happens there between the Packers and the Vikings. next game on our board, another divisional matchup. AFC East is the division for this one. Bills, minus three and a half against the Patriots, 42 and a half over under in this game. And I think the luster has come off the bills a little bit over the last couple of weeks. Fick, and maybe the one that caused the most luster to come off was just last week. Don't even score a touchdown against the Jets.

They come away with an 18 to 10 victory. But that's a game that I felt pretty confident. You felt pretty confident they were going to be able to win that and cover the spread. Obviously, that did not happen. But I'm going right back to the well with the Buffalo Bills. I think they're just simply the better team than the Patriots. And talk about the luster coming off with what we've seen from Cam Newton and this passing game over the last few weeks. There's just nothing there.

There's really nothing to this offense. I think we could be looking at the Patriots as one of the five worst offenses in the NFL by season's end. I don't not think that's a stretch whatsoever. And that's just going to be a problem. And this is not the 2019 Patriots defense. We had a lot of opt-outs from this team to start the season. And it's much harder, I think, to sustain defensive performance year over year than it is offensive performance with the obvious reason being that a singular quarterback can't do that

for an offense. And there's just not one or two players on defense. I think we can carry a defense year over year. Again, I referenced the defenses that have been great for the past few years. Look at the 2017 Jaguars compared with the 2018 Jaguars. The 2018 Bears compared with the 2019 Bears. It's just hard to sustain that defensive performance year over year. And I think we're seeing it again from the Patriots this season.

For me, this is just the case of the bills just being the better team and the three and a half not fully reflecting that. And even if you think it's a fair line, I just think the bills are just comfortably the better team in this game. So I think we see a bounce back performance from Josh Allen and the offense. And yeah, I haven't even mentioned the Julian Edelman injury. I mean, this is a team that's already struggling in a big way offensively. And now you take Julian Edelman off the field for this Patriots offense. I just can't see them really getting anything going. I think we'll see a focus on Damian Harris and the run game,

considering you've been able to run on Buffalo this season. But I just don't think it's going to be there. Give me the bills minus three and a half. Not one of your five, but where are you leaning? Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, Cam looked so bad last week. It's weird because he looked so good the first couple of weeks. So I think it reminds me back in Carolina a while back where he was playing badly for a while.

And it came out he wasn't even hurt. He's either hurt or he's got some after effects from the COVID, but he looks totally different than he did the first couple of weeks. And they don't have enough weapons in offense if he's not playing well. I mean, even with the element who wasn't playing very well before he got hurt. So I think it's like you said, I think it's definitely, people may have still have doubts about their demise. Maybe Belchick can pull it out, but I think they're definitely on the way down this season. I think they actually might merely jump in the Trevor Lawrence Derby if they'll lose out.

So who knows. But yeah, I think that's a good spot for the bills. Yeah, they can't have Cam Newton be a substandard passing quarterback and also their best running back. And right now it feels like that's what that offense is dealing with. So I feel very good about these bills this week. Next game on our slate, Titans and Bengals. This game is in Cincinnati. Titans coming off their first loss of the season at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So they stick in the AFC North to get the Bengals this week. Five and a half is the spread here. Titans five and a half point favorites in Cincinnati. 53 and a half, one of our higher over unders of the week. And Vic, you are on the home dog, the Cincinnati Bengals. I like this pick. It's not one of my five. It is the way that I would pick it.

However, love what Joe Burrow has done. Love what that offense has showed us. What has you on the Bengals as one of your five plays of the week? Yeah, I've been on Burrow most of the year. I got burned last week going against them, that stupid Miss P.A.T. You're the Browns. They were minus three and a half. I had them one by three.

So I learned my lesson. I think Burroughs is too good. not only to stay in some games, when he goes against the good teams like the Titans, I think he's a great backdoor cover guy, which he's shown already this year. Titans' defense is not great, so really they have to be up by more than 14 late to really be comfortable against the Bengals,

and I think they'll be closer than that. So I think if they're not covering by then, I think Borough gets a backdoor cover. I think he's just really impressed me all year long with his tools and his brains and his moxies, so I think it's a good spot for him to cover the number either legitimately or through the back door. Doesn't matter how he does it, right? Does not matter whatsoever as long as he does it.

And I'm with you. This is the first pick that missed being in my top five with Detroit being the last pick that made it into my top five. So I could definitely see myself wanting to pivot to Cincinnati. What you love also from that offense is that we've seen the reemergence of AJ Green, right? Over the last two weeks, we thought he was pretty much left for dead in Cincinnati and maybe they were going to trade him. And I guess there's still time to make that trade.

We've really seen him step up in this passing game the last two weeks. 15 catches on 24 targets, 96 yards one week, 82 yards for the next, really seeing him emerge or reemerge in that offense alongside an emergent T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd, who just does what Tyler Boyd does every single week. And suddenly you're looking at a Cincinnati offense that has three legitimate receivers available to Joe Burrough. So really do like that. And you hit the nail on the head with this Tennessee defense. We talk about it with Seattle.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see a Seattle Tennessee Super Bowl necessarily, but Tennessee's got just as big a defensive problem as Seattle does. This is a team that has had to do it with offense really all season, and I don't know if that's going to change at any point. So do think Joe Burrow and Company can make things tough on that Tennessee defense, five and a half a little bit too big. I am with you, I lean toward the Bengals. Next game up, a game that neither of us is picking,

so we'll just mention it, blow right through it. Browns, two and a half point favorites at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. and a half is the over under. Next game, Kansas City Chiefs, minus 19 and a half against the New York Jets. I don't want to blow right through this one. I got to ask you this, Vic. What would the number need to be

for you to want to pick the Jets? 25. You get me plus 25? I'm on them. But sort of that, I can't see it. I think the Jets got, I mean, the last week they covered, I don't know how, but the bills got a sweepwalks in the first quarter.

But to me, I'm looking. at this game, and I totally can see late third quarter or fourth quarter, the Chiefs have a nice lead, and they're just feeding Levy on the ball. He's looking at Adam Gaze, kind of smiling at him, and rolling off 10-yard runs and 10-yard catchers.

So I think it's Levy on Bell's Revenge Game late. That's why there won't be any backdoor cover. It'll be a big margin. The revenge game narrative is always fun. It's not really a thing. It's always a fun thing for us in the media and for fans to talk about. But if the revenge game were ever

going to be a thing. Levyon Bell already said this in our DFS portion. Lavian Bell against the Jets two weeks after he got released or three weeks after he got released and two weeks after he got released and two weeks after he's on whatever it is. I mean, just it's totally set up for Laveon Bell to put up like a hundred yard two touchdown half on the Jets and Adam Gase. I agree with that. I would need three touchdowns plus like a field goal. If you tell me the Jets can make this game like 41 to 17, then yeah, sure, I'll buy in maybe. But that's what it would take. staying away from that. Still don't want to necessarily lay the 19.5.

On the chiefs, though. So we move on to Tua Tua Tuna Vailoa's first start for the Miami Dolphins. He gets to make it at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Rams come into Miami as three and a half point favorites. 46 is our over under Vic. I love this one, too, a pick that I considered making myself. You actually have the stones to make it backing Tua in his first start. Dolphins, home, three and a half point dogs.

What makes you buy into this offense, really this whole team here in this game against the tough Rams D? Well, you know, the whole move, the bench, Ryan, Fitzpatrick got a lot of bad press, and obviously he whined about it a little bit and people felt bad for him. But I think Ryan Flores is pretty sharp. I can't imagine he's making this move. He's not totally confident that Tula is indeed better than Ryan Fitzpatrick right now. So I think Tula's going to play pretty well. I mean, I thought he was better.

Herbert. Herbert's been phenomenal. So based on that, he's going to be like, you know, like Steve Young. So I also think it blows well because the Rams coming out that. big win Monday, big emotional way I play really well. I think in a short week you're flying to Miami. You can't be that fire up to play the Dolphins. I know you respect everybody, but it's got to be a little of a letdown and the heat

hit you at some point. So I like the Dolphins. I like Tua to wiggle out of trouble in the pocket and make some plays. And I like the Dolphins win the game. Win outright. So there's the upset pick for you this week. Miami Dolphins pulling off an outright victory over the Rams at home to a tongue of Loa's first start for the Miami Dolphins.

Fascinated to watch this game. We've talked about it a few times with Miami that they've built sort of a sneaky fun offense when you look at Miles Gaskin emerging as a legitimate weapon in the backfield, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gisicki, and now we get to see Tua leading the team. It's going to be very fun to watch and totally agree with you. Brian Flores is getting the credit that he deserves. It really started last season turning this team into a dangerous second half team. You know, we all remember the big week 17 win over the Patriots that knocked them out of a buy.

This is a team that at the very least was going to be plucky coming into this season. And now could be contending for an AFC playoff berth. All credit due to Brian Flores and that coaching staff. And of course, the players as well. A fun team to watch is going to be a fun game. Definitely Dolphins at home against the Rams. Our last game in the Sunday or the early Sunday slate has us pitted head to head, Vic. this is the marquee game of the week.

Ravens at home against the Steelers. A huge game in the AFC North. Winner will be in first place in the AFC North. We've got the Ravens minus three and a half against the Steelers. I am on the road team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. You are on the home team, the Baltimore Ravens. 46.5 is our over under in this one. I will let you go first.

Tell me why I'm wrong, why you are back in the Ravens. I think there's some line value. I think this line would be a little higher if it was about two, three weeks ago, I think. I obviously playing really well. I think the loss of Devin Bush will finally come. I'll pay a price for it here against Lamar Jackson. I think it'll be harder to stop without Devin Bush. I like the moves that Ravens made in the bi-week.

You got Nick and Giackeway, who definitely is still a top passhushers in the game. So they got better on the bi-a-week. We've had two weeks to prepare. Harbaugh's a grab camera brings off top of my head, but here's a really good record off the bi-week. So I like it to go. I think it's a great spot for the Ravens. It's probably my favorite game of the week.

Oh, favorite game of the week. I like that. I mean, you make, it's a compelling argument, certainly, especially with the two weeks to prepare for Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh coming off at emotional win to a huge win, right? Just a week ago, they were 5-0 Pittsburgh against 5-0 Tennessee, and they get out to a huge lead. They ultimately have to hold on, nearly give that game away to the Titans. And now they have this huge game going to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. So a lot of those things definitely checks in the Ravens favor. This is sort of a gambler play for me, Vic. I just feel like these teams are a few. field goal difference with one another. If this is minus three, I'm staying away from it. If it's minus two and a half, I'm on Baltimore. But getting that hook, getting that three and a half on Pittsburgh makes me want to play Pittsburgh. I think these are two great teams, two of the very best teams in the league, two teams we are going to see in the playoffs, potentially deep into the playoffs, two teams that really can't do almost everything they want to do on both sides of the ball. The Devin Bush loss obviously is a big one. It hasn't showed up quite yet for Pittsburgh,

but I agree with you. This would be the sort of game against a quarterback. like Lamar Jackson, where we really could see it in action for the first time. But I just love what Pittsburgh's been able to do offensively. And if they do have a healthy Deontay Johnson, and it sounds like they're going to be able to, then you have three receivers that you can use to attack this defense. And you need that diversity of weapons going up against a team like the Raven. So now you've got Deontay Johnson, the emerging Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster, who maybe not the wide receiver won so many people thought he was going to be,

but still a very useful piece in this offense. plus a guy like James Connor. You can really throw a lot of different looks at this Baltimore defense when you have that sort of weaponry around Ben Ruffisberger. So you can give me that, you give me Pittsburgh's defense, and you give me three and a half. That makes me feel good about the Steelers. So this is going to be our fourth head-to-head matchup of the season.

Surprisingly, we only had four so far. But fourth-to-head matchup, let's see what we have here. Great game on tap between the Ravens and the Steelers. The Sunday late slate features three games. Chargers and Broncos, that one at the time of this recording, is in some jeopardy given the chargers had a positive COVID-19 test on Thursday. Neither of us picking it. Right now, the line sits at minus three, minus 120,

so a little bit more juice to get the charges at minus three. 44 and a half is the over-under. Next game in the late slate, slaints, saints, saints, saints, saints, is what I'm trying to say. Saints minus four and a half. They're in Chicago to take on the Bears, 43. and a half is the over under. I'm totally flipping from what I felt last week, Vic, right? Bears were one of my most confident plays of the week.

They embarrass themselves on Monday night football. Maybe this is a reaction to that, but give me the Saints. Can't overthink this one. The Saints are just so obviously the better team here. The Bears, maybe the worst five and two team that we've seen in the NFL in a long time, potentially ever. I don't have the entire NFL history cataloged in my brain, but this is not a five and two team.

And I think they're still getting a little bit of respect for just flipping it open, see the record, five and two. It's a good defense. And it is a legitimately good defense, especially through the air. Can't take that away from them. And they showed that again against the Rams on Monday. But the saints are just so obviously the better team. We got Michael Thomas back in practice on Thursday. That is definitely a good sign that he'll be available in this game.

I just don't see how the Bears do enough offensively to keep this game close. They have not done really anything offensively, save for one good half against the Falcons defense, which is among the worst in the league, really all season. And I don't see where they get the points to stay within five points of the New Orleans Saints. So I feel great about this one.

Saints are obviously the better team, and their defense has been getting healthier and healthier over the last few weeks. I think the Saints win this one comfortably. I think the Saints win this one by like 14 points. They do it in Chicago, and you've got people calling for Matt Nagy's head after this game. Love the Saints.

here. You are not picking it. What was your pick, though, in the Vicks-Picks column? I went with the Bears, only because the spread was a little high for me. I thought the bear's defense. I think it's actually pretty good. I'd say it's probably a notch better than what you said. I think it's one of the top defenses in the league. I think being at home, I think it was definitely worse on. But to me, I thought the Saints minus two and a half, I probably would definitely look for the Saints. But to get more than the field goal at home, I thought that was, I think it would be a close game. I can't see the Saints really pulling away. So for that reason, I went with the Bears.

I mean, could you imagine if there's no Alan Robinson in this game, though? I mean, Alan Robinson's in the concussion protocol, and if the Bears playing on Monday night so he's got one fewer day to clear it, the Bears look incompetent offensively with Alan Robinson, one of the best receivers in the league. I look at this game, and especially without Alan Robinson, and I say, where do the Bears find 13 points without, like, a defensive score or, you know, Corderole Patterson ripping off some big kick return?

There you go. They get one of each of those. You get a defense touchdown and Cardinald Patterson. That's my 14. 17, 14, they lose. Merry Christmas. There you go. Christmas in October.

Christmas on Halloween. Got to love that. We've got one more game that we're picking three more games on the slate, but just one more game where we have picks. If you're following along and doing the math, you're saying, hey, you guys have both only made four picks. Well, kumbaya moment to end the show here. We are both on the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are minus three at home. That is even, not minus 110. a little bit less juice here. Minus three for the Seahawks at home against the 49ers. 54 is the over under. Vic, this just feels, again, like I just said with the Saints, don't overthink this one, right? The Seahawks are definitely, I think definitely, the better team.

Even with the 49ers getting healthy and looking a little bit more like the 2019 version of this team than we saw in the first couple of weeks of the season, I just want to trust Russell Wilson and this offense, basically, whenever I can. So that's why I'm going with the Seahawks. I have a little more to say, but why are you going with the Seahawks? Yeah, I'm with you. I think they're a better team. I also think it's a good spot. Russell Wilson off a loss is pretty good. They had it across on Lappazook on defense. Defense can't be this horrible. I can't imagine they can't even as possible I could, but I think they're not this bad. I mean, in the long run-run. So, and you mention the Niners, everyone's back in the bandwagon, but they still have some injuries. They'll lose Debo this week. They still got some running back issues. So I'm not sure they're going to be a seamless rise back up to the top. Everyone thinks it's going to be. I think there's going to be some hiccups here and there. So I think the Seahawks are a better team. The spreads coming. down's a nice number at home. So I like to see. I like to see, I like to see arcs.

Yeah, I agree with you when it comes to there still being some hiccups offensively. I think we're sort of underselling Jeff Wilson getting hurt last week. Not because Jeff Wilson is necessarily the greatest running back in the NFL. No offense, Jeff, if you're listening, you had 112 yards and three touchdowns last week. You're obviously very good. But Jeff Wilson, even when you come off a Rahim Mostert, let's Kyle Shanahan run that offense still the way he wants to run that offense, especially that run game. He still gives you a Rahim Mostert. option. And with him now out with Wilson out in addition to Mo Sterd and Tevin Coleman,

looking like he's going to miss another game, they don't have that. You know, you can't do that with Jamichael Hastie and Jerich McKinnon. I just don't think they have that guy who can lead the run game the way that Kyle Shanan has designed this offense with Jamichael Hastie and Jerich McKinn. So I think that really changes what they can do on the ground. And it limits what they can do on the ground. And as bad as Seattle's defense has been, that offense has been even better. And you need to put up points. I don't think you can't, I don't think you can beat Seattle with defense. We saw what Arizona did, 37 points. Kyler Murray going shot for shot with Russell Wilson. That's what you need to do to beat Seattle. You have to put up points. You have to assume we need

30 to win this game. And without Debo Samuel, with a run game that doesn't necessarily have the guy who makes things go, I don't know where San Francisco gets to 30. So I really like to see Hawks here in this one. That's our last pick here. We do have Sunday night game. Eagles minus nine and a half against the Dallas Cowboys looking like Ben Danucci is going to be the starter. 43 is the over under. Neither of us picking that one Monday night football, at least for the time being, Buckingears minus 10 and a half at the New York Giants. Giants also having some personnel, some players testing positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. So right now that game up in the air. Either way, neither of us is picking it.

Vic, your picks for week eight. Vikings, they are plus six and a half at Green Bay, Cincinnati plus five and a half at home against Tennessee, dolphins plus three and a half at home against the Rams, Ravens minus three and a half at home against the Steelers, and Seahawks minus three at home against the 49ers. I counter with the lions, plus three at home against the Colts, the Bills minus three and a half at home against the paper.

treats the Steelers plus three and a half in Baltimore, Saints minus four and a half in Chicago, and together with you on those Seahawks minus three against the San Francisco 49ers. Upset picks, we have already mentioned them. Vic taking the dolphins to beat the Rams outright into a tongue-of-a-low his first start. I'm going to ride with the Detroit Lions. I'm just going to turn fully in to the Colts are fraudulent. They're not as good as people think they are. Give me the Lions to pull off a upset at home over the end.

Indianapolis Colts. Let's wrap things up here with Survivor. Vic, Buccaneers, if that game plays, feels like a pretty easy one. Who you're looking at as a Survivor play in Week 8? Yeah, I probably go to the Eagles. I can't see the Cowboys winning with Danu Knochia quarterback or any, but their defense is so bad. So I just think they're kind of fine. I love the way you say it. You just like sound, like it sounds, you sound like the Cowboys feel. Yeah, they got rid of two players this week, got rid of Poland. Pretty much they're cutting shit, but they realize they got nothing going. So The Eagles actually are playing a little better.

They're not really getting back to health quite yet, but they're showing signs of life. So I think as far as between the bucks and the Eagles, I'd go with the Eagles because I think the Giants at least have a little bit of a tiny pulse, whereas the Cowboys are totally dead. You know what you like about the Eagles, too, is that you're probably not going to have too many other spots where you feel great about them.

At home against an unraveling Dallas team. As they're getting healthy, we've seen Travis Fulgum emerge in this offense. They are getting Jalen Rieger back this week. is going to play. So you're starting to see Philly get healthy. Dallas Goddert, they're still holding out hope for. Same goes for Miles Sanders, but this is a team that is rounding into form, getting healthy. I still

don't think it's a great team, but when you look up and down the NFC East, I think it's them in Washington, looking like the two best teams there, and this is a good spot to use the Eagles. One team that I would caution against using, and I know you would too, Vic, considering you picked against them, at least against the spread,

is the Tennessee Titans. It's one of the bigger spreads out there this week at 5. half, but that is way too risky a play at Cincinnati. So we are on the Eagles, Buccaneers not a bad play. Chiefs, of course, also one that could be in the mix if you want to just take the layup. So those are what we're looking at for Survivor. We are staying off of the Tennessee Titans. And we want to thank you for staying on with us here on the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast

and the athletic football show. Myself, Vic Tafer, Derek Van Riper. We will be back with you next Friday to take a look at the week nine. EFS slate and our favorite against the spread picks. Until then, thanks so much for listening. Have a great weekend and enjoy all of the week eight action. We'll see you later. This was the Athletic Football Show.