The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 9 DFS plays, and picks against the spread

Episode Date: November 6, 2020

On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Michael Beller and Derek VanRiper break down the Week 9 DFS slate. They discuss Dalvin Cook chalk, the appeal of mid-tier backs and cheap receivers, a possible Lamar Jackson bargain, and more.Later, Beller and Vic Tafur run through every Week 9 game, highlighting their favorite picks against the spread (begins at 30:02). Who wins—or, more importantly, covers—the NFC South clash between the Saints and Buccaneers? Can the Ravens' offense get going in Indianapolis? Are the Dolphins a live dog again, this time against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals? The guys answer those questions, and a whole lot more.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiperFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Good one and welcome in to the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the athletic football show. Friday, November 6th is the day and the date. We are ready to talk DFS and against the spread picks for week nine, one week nine game in the books with the Packers and 49ers. Getting things underway for us yesterday. We are now ready for the 13 games that are still ahead of us in this weekend. I am Michael Beller, joined as always to start things off here on Fridays by Derek Van Riper. DVR, an interesting DFS week.

This copper ambulance out here, I think agrees with me when I say that. I'm not sure. I don't know. Interesting feels like the right way. I don't feel great. I don't feel bad. It's just, it's an interesting week on the slate. How you feel it?

Yeah, it's not quite as robust as week seven where there's value everywhere, but it's certainly better than week eight. So I'll take it. There's a lot of different ways to build lineups this week that you can feel good about. So looking forward to it. And there's a good mix of games, too. It's not all low scoring. It's not all high scoring. It's just a decent mix of games to pick from.

And, you know, we always obviously focus our attention here for obvious reasons on the main slate. So that means Buccaneer Saints are off that with that game being Sunday night football. And then, I mean, Buckinger Saints, how about Patriots Jets off the main slate? I mean, what are we going to do? What are we going to do without La Michael P. Rhine available to us? I don't know if we're going to be able to figure this out. No, Jacoby Myers. Going to have to find some real scrounge opportunities at wide receiver and running back without those guys.

But still plenty of good players to go with. We're going to start at the running back position. And no Alvin Camaro, we do have Christian McCaffrey back almost for sure. It's not a guarantee just yet. He's you and I are recording this, but it's basically a guarantee. But the chalk to me is looking as though it'll be Dalvin Cook or Derek Henry. Delvin Cook's at 8,200. Derek Henry is checking in a couple hundred dollars behind that at 7,900.

Cook at home against the Lions. Henry at home against the Bears. How tempted are you to go with one of those two chalky backs? I think most of the builds you're going to have for cash games are going to have one of those guys in for sure. It's interesting to me. I use the Roto Grinder's lineup HQ tool to look at projected. usage and there's a pretty big gap between Cook over 28% and Henry at 16%. I don't really see that much of a difference between those two.

So I think you could definitely justify saving 300 bucks and going to Henry if it unlocked something somewhere else in your lineup. I think the one thing that always gives someone like Cook a little extra edge is the added use in the passing game compared to someone like Henry, right? So that's the one thing that separates them. but all in all, both very playable at their respective prices atop the board. Yeah, agree completely. And I'm pretty much going to want one of these guys in my lineup,

all things being equal, and they're not. There's a $300 difference. But I would rather pay the extra $300 for Cook. It just feels like he is just playing a little bit better. And with that added a role that he has in the passing game, that Derek Henry just flat out doesn't in Tennessee. He would be my slight preference over Derek Henry, but it's not like I think you're crazy.

if you go in the other direction. And I also don't necessarily think you're crazy if you want to jump right in on Christian McCaffrey. I mean, if we're just being realistic about it, Christian McCaffrey at $8,500 in his first week back in six weeks from this ankle injury. This is probably the cheapest you're going to get Christian McCaffrey the rest of the season and maybe the lowest ownership you're going to get on Christian McCaffrey the rest of the season. That's just my own speculation. But this might not be a bad week if you are willing to just say, throw caution to the last. the wind and go with the guy in his first week back. Yeah, I think he's a little more of a GPP play for me than a cash play, but

Kirsten McCash for him is usually fine. If you get that confirmation, you know, do what you got to do, play them. I just think the presence of Mike Davis doesn't worry me at all. I think some people might be a little concerned about that. It's hard to get a good read on how popular he's going to be because of the injury. I think once we get the all clear, we're going to see those projected usage. numbers go through the roof and he's going to catch up, at least to, I would assume, like, the Josh Jacobs, Derek Henry range, the 16% range, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he

got to the low 20s and, you know, behind Delvin Cook and Chase Edmonds was the third most popular running back on draft Kings this weekend. But we're looking at this position and I'm glued to the $6,000 guys again. I'm surprised Chase Edmonds is $6,800. That much of a price spike on him kind of feels like the Alexander Madison situation. a few weeks ago. And because Madison busted that week in a really nice matchup, I think people might think twice about Edmonds, but the projection of usage there is really high, 24.4%. I think the setup is fine.

I'm not really worried about it. I think the reason I'm not necessarily excited about Edmonds is that I see other backs for less money that I think are in just as good a spot. Josh Jacobs for 6,300. You're saving 500. You're getting tons of carries. Plenty of opportunities in the Reds. zone. Eight red zone carries last week, even though Josh Jacobs didn't find the end zone.

He's got four games this season with 25 or more touches. You get two to three catches along with it. So it's similar to a Derek Henry passing game role or closer to that than, you know, five, six, seven catches week in and week out. But I think in the right game script, Jacobs could be more involved in the passing game if necessary. So it's not, you know, it's not a situation where you're bailing on him if you feel like the Raiders are going to start playing from behind. So as I look at the running backs, part of the reason why I only want one of those expensive guys out of Cook, you know, McCaffrey, if he goes, or Derek Henry, is that I love the value you're getting on Jacobs. And I like the value on James Connor, too. I feel like you and I talk about

James Connor every single week on this show because he always seems underpriced relative to his workload and relative to the implied totals. I think he's more popular than usual this week because of the way that Steelers Cowboys game is expected to play out, right? I mean, the implied total in that game is 27 and change for the Steelers, and the Cowboys are sitting just under 14 right now. So that's a very run-heavy sort of game script if you think about the most likely way that's going to play out. Yeah, so you nailed a lot of points there. I just want to echo a few of them. Number one, with you on Chase Edmonds.

Love the player, starting in with the utmost confidence in season long. 6,800, it's just too much in the DFS world. Josh Jacobs, 6,300. I think maybe dollar for dollar is the best running back play on the board. I would give it slightly to Delvin Cook over him, but I mean, 6,300. This feels like the same conversation we've had for the last couple of weeks about Keenan Allen, who is now up at 7,000. We've been waiting for him to get to that level. This just feels like that, too, where something is missing here.

Why would Josh Jacobs be that low? And then James Connor, never a bad play. The one thing that would concern me about him is if this game does play to that script, if the Steelers are winning 24 to 3 in the third quarter. How quickly is Mike Tomlin going to be willing to go to Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland and let them take those tough carries that salt away the clock rather than putting them on James Conner's plate? That's the one thing that would concern me. And obviously, if it gets to that point, there's a good chance that James Connor has had a large hand in getting it to that point. But we love running backs in positive game scripts because they get to rack up, say, you know, 10 carries for 55 yards with their team protecting the lead.

And I just wonder if James Connor is going to get all those, if it does end up going that way. Let's look at a couple of cheap guys before we turn the page over to the wide receiver position. I guess this isn't super cheap, but Antonio Gibson in that $5,800 price coming off a buy, he had his best game of the season before the buy going up against the Giants team that doesn't necessarily scare you. And then some of the recent heroes that we've had in the fantasy world, Justin Jackson, $4,900, J.K. Dobbins, $4,900, $4,800. We've had a lot of talk on the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast about all three of those guys this week. So just the way that you're building teams, do you find yourself going for any of those four guys, Gibson, Jackson, Dobbins, or Gus Edwards?

Yeah, it's probably one of the three out of Jackson or the two Ravens running backs. most likely it's Jackson just thinking about the way everybody's putting their lineups together and Keenan Allen's going to be popular. We'll talk about receivers in a minute but the concept of being invested in an offense in a different player that the masses

are in, especially in tournaments, is something that you want to think a lot about. So that's why Justin Jackson sort of stands out to me. I think with Dobbins and Edwards we've got two very capable backs that in season long you keep wishing that one would overtake the other for a larger share of the workload, most

likely that'd be Dobbins, whose advanced numbers look outstanding. He's great at breaking tackles. He catches. He can do everything. He can be a great three-down back. We're talking about a talent who could be a $7,500 or $8,000 a week sort of back in the not-so-distant future. But as long as Edwards is there, and as long as Lamar Jackson is doing what he does with his legs, you know, it just kind of puts a cap on the ceiling of everybody in that Ravens backfield. So I like Jackson the most because of opportunity. I understand why people are going after Dobbins and in some cases, Edwards as well. I think my trust level in Antonio Gibson is pretty high.

It's just a question of whether I can get to that $5,800 price point. I think this matchup against the Giants is one where you're going to see a little more of like a balanced workload for him. 15 to 17 carries, probably four or five catches. The reason he wasn't catching passes against Dallas before the buys because that game was a blowout, right? I mean, Antonio Gibson's going to catch passes more often than not. So I wouldn't look at what happened against the Cowboys and say, okay, he's going to get all the carries now going forward, but he's going to be hit and miss in the passing game.

More often than not, the Washington football team would be playing close games or be playing from behind. So the floor comes from his role as a pass catcher. It's just encouraging to see how much of a workload they were willing to give him on the ground back in week seven. All right, let's move things over to wide receiver here, Derek, and I'm going to take a slightly different tag than we have in a recent week. going to read off the list of guys who we would, you know, basically term wide receiver ones in season long fantasy and ask you if there are any of these guys who you're definitely trying to jam into your DFS lineups. They are DeAndre Hopkins 8200. D.K. McHaf, 78. Stefan Digg, 74. Hulio Jones 72. Tyreek Hill 71. Keenan Allen, even 7,000. Same goes for Calvin Ridley. Alan Robinson is at 6,900. Tyler Lockett's at 68 along with Will Fuller.

Adam Thielen, 67, A.J. Brown, 66. Terry McLaren, 65. Any of those guys jump out at you and for what reason? Yeah, it's a good mix overall. I would say of the expensive receivers, I actually like DeAndre Hopkins a lot because he'll be used a lot less than most. And I think if the projected usage rates hold up going into the weekend, what we see late in the week when we speak isn't even close to what we get by Sunday morning. some cases. But if the board looks similar on Sunday morning to the way it looks now, DeAndre Hopkins is going to be lower use than he should be. And you have to pay up to get him,

but if the field is generally on Chase Edmins, this is a great opportunity to get a lot of leverage. And Hopkins price is a deterrent, but the floor we know is really high. I don't worry too much about the matchup against Miami. I think they're kind of middle of the road against the pass, or at least in terms of what they allow to opposing wide receivers.

If you look at the adjusted fantasy points allowed metrics. They're not locked down in that regard. I think the only concern I have about the Cardinals passing game is the Miami offense, right? I mean, Tua against the Rams maybe it was a really tough matchup for his first

NFL start last week. But that's the only real concern I have about Hopkins. I think there's enough value at the position when you get down in the sub-6K range where you can find that extra money that you need to get to Hopkins, at least in tournaments. I don't know if you can really rely

I'm in cash games this week because of all that aforementioned value. But in tournaments especially, he's that wide receiver one that I really like because of the setup and because of the expected usage this week. Yeah, there's really never a bad reason to go with DeAndre Hopkins. The guy who I personally look at in this group is Stefan Diggs, a guy who really doesn't matter what the game script is, really doesn't matter what the weather is, as we learned last week, the only effective receiver in the game between the Bills and the New England Patriots.

It's going up against the Seattle Seahawks. We know how great of a matchup that is for passing games this season. And it's the highest over-under on the board at 55. So I think that's going to be a high-scoring game. The Seahawks have not disappointed us when it comes to being high-scoring themselves or letting the team they're playing against being high-scoring either. I'm sure Stefan Diggs is going to be quite chalky this week, but I still feel pretty good about him being someone who you can get some big-time

wide receiver-one numbers out of. He's who I look to in that group. And then I don't know if I really want to get anyone else from that group into my lineups. It feels tough. I think that you can, as we've talked about Keenan Allen, a bunch this season, I think you can pair him with Josh Jacobs. That's a nice pair to play against one another with those two teams going head to head and having an over under in the low 50s.

So that feels like not a bad way to go this week. Seattle receiver is never a bad way to go. But I think it's hard to get one of them in if you're going to go with DeAndre Hopkins. or try to play that pair game and pair them up with Stefan Diggs. Hard to get them both in there if you're also going to go with one of the high-priced chalk running back. So if I can only have one, Stefan Diggs is my favorite of the group. You threw our Carolina receivers in here, so I'll throw that question actually back at you. This is a game against the Chiefs where the Panthers are 10.5 point underdogs.

You've got Robbie Anderson at 6300, DJ Moore at 5600 in a game where Carolina could very well be playing catch-up. Seems like there could be plenty of volume on the table for these two guys, and the price doesn't feel too heavy for either. Yeah, I just wanted to kind of bring them into our conversation because they appear to be very popular, and for good reason, the usage for the price is there. The production's been there most weeks as well. Moore's 5,600, Robbie Anderson up at 6,300.

How much does the potential return of Christian McCaffrey change their week-to-week target loads? I mean, Mike Davis filled in capably, but he's not Christian McCaffrey. So you wonder, is the tradeoff kind of a wash because the offense is better with McCaffrey in it? They have more chances to put points on the board. Therefore, the slight drop in targets week to week is actually offset by increased probability to find the end zone. I think that's where I fall with them. And it's interesting to me that the savings on Moore is not inflating the usage on him. So I think DJ Moore is my preferred play of the two, even though I have no compelling argument against Robbie Anderson at this point.

I think that's totally fair. I don't think you need a compelling argument against Robbie Anderson to be a little bit more. And to DJ Moore. He's got the big playability, the big run after catchability. We've already seen that from him a couple of times in recent weeks. And that's $700. I mean, that could be the difference between getting Delvin Cook or not in your lineup, getting DeAndre Hopkins or not in your lineup.

And while Robbie Anderson, I think, deserves to be thought of as the wide receiver won for Carolina, it's not as though there's this massive distance between the two of them. I think the $700 difference suggests that there's a little bit more of a gap between Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore in terms of usage, in terms of importance in the Carolina offense, then there really is. So I do, I agree with you. If I was going to go with one of the Carolina receivers, DJ Moore would be my favorite. You know who I want to bring up actually is Sterling Shepard, $4,800. And he feels like he's the wide receiver one in the Giants offense when he's healthy. He's got 18 targets over the last two weeks. 14 catches on those 18 targets.

He got in the end zone a week ago. He's basically a 7 for 70 and hopefully he gets in the end zone sort of player. And that's been true about Sterling Shepard for years. So long as he's healthy, that's what he gives you. And I don't think the $4,800 price really reflects that Darius Slayton is a couple hundred dollars more expensive. And when they've been healthy, Sterling Shepard has clearly been the favored target of Daniel Jones. And I think not only is he a guy who I like a lot, but he kicks off a discussion about a pretty interesting price range of players. If you go down to maybe 4,600, up to 5,4, 5500, there's a lot of

ways to save at the wide receiver position this week. Yeah, I mean, Shepard, it looks like he's going to be largely ignored at this point. And I think it's partially because of the value receivers that are just a few hundred dollars more expensive. I think that group, for a lot of people, is led by Marvin Jones, right? No Kenny Galday. We don't know the status of Matthew Stafford for Sunday just yet. And I think if we find out that Stafford can't play, you're going to see people pivot away from Marvin Jones a bit. I think Chase Daniel's a competent backup. But because you could go to Devante Parker at 5,200, or you could go to Deontay Johnson at 5,000, or you could go to someone like Shepard at 4,800. You used to have a few other paths, right? All those make sense in terms of

target floor in terms of just overall skills and matchup that you're getting from that group. So I do think I'm going to have at least one, if not two receivers from this range in a lot of my lineups because I think there's plenty of targets there. The other guy that I think fits into the conversation in part because I think you can build a good cardinal stack this week and try to save up everywhere else. It's going to cost you a lot to get to Kyler Murray. We'll talk about quarterbacks a little bit. Of course, it's going to cost you a lot to get DeAndre Hopkins.

but I like Christian Kirk at 5300. Again, this is more of a big field tournament sort of build, but I like the way he's been used. Eight targets last time out against Seattle. He saw a seven target game a few weeks back against the Jets. I think if you consider how much of a lopsided snoozer their matchup against Dallas was, sandwiched between those two games.

You can kind of look past the limited target volume, and even in that case with the long TD and scoring twice, Christian Kirk was great in that spot. So I like the group of receipts. receivers to choose from right around that 5K price tag this week. There's some weeks where there's too much risk there. It looks better than usual for this week. One of the guy who will throw in credit where it's due, you brought him up.

Devante Parker, $5,200. It hasn't been quite the Devante Parker numbers that we thought he was going to be putting up on a weekly basis coming into the season over these last few weeks. And Tua definitely is a wild card. But a nice companion play if you are going to go with DeAndre Hopkins or Christian Kirk or an entire Arizona stack. Definitely a nice companion play to get Devante Parker in their only $5,200. So certainly not breaking the bank on him,

and that's going to do it for us at the wide receiver position. All right, quarterback time on the books here. Most expensive guys who I'm interested in, Russell Wilson, 7,600, Josh Allen, I almost called him, Kyle Lano, if Kyle Lann was $7,000, we'd have something to talk about. Josh Allen is $7,000. It could be a high-scoring game, of course, between the Seahawks and the bills.

But I mean, I don't know what it. Maybe it's something about me, Derek. Maybe it's something wrong with me. But every time I build a lineup with one of those high-price quarterbacks in it, every single week, it just feels like there are ways that I like going that are better than that as great as some of these guys have been this season. Yeah, I don't get to the top of the board very often, but I was pushing a little earlier for a Kyler Murray stack, at least for tournaments. I think for a more common sort of build, I mean, Justin Herbert is creeping up close to 7K. He's at 6,800. That's probably about as much as I can spend in most of my lineups this week, thinking about the way the rest of my lineup comes together. Same kind of price point for Lamar Jackson at 6,900. I think the question with Jackson, though, is,

is he okay in the passing game right now? I know the floor from what he does as a runner makes him pretty viable at that reduced price, but is the ceiling lower than we thought it was coming into the season based on what we've seen through the first half of 2020? I mean, that's actually the way I go if I'm going to go with the high-price quarterback this week. It is going to be Lamar Jackson because you're just not going to get too many opportunities to get him at $6,900. And I totally hear what you are saying on Lamar Jackson with the way he has thrown the ball this season. But I am not quite as worried as some other people are. First,

let's take the touchdown rate, right? Last year, 9%. It was never going to happen again this season. Patrick Mahomes has been north of that number. Aaron Rogers has been north in that number in recent years. and both of them came down significantly the season after, and we didn't ask any questions about them. Of course, they are much better throwers of the ball than Lamar Jackson is. But still, it's not like he was going to do that. And the 6.3% number he's at this year, still a pretty good number. Then secondly, you look at what Lamar Jackson's, well,

you look at what his passing game logs were from a season ago. The first four games of the season, he was 247 or better. The rest of the season, 161, 236, 143, 163. 223, 222, 169, 105, 145, 212, 238. So it's not like he was putting up these monster yardage games last season. He was just throwing for a lot of touchdowns. Basically, if he just ups the touchdown a little bit with what he's doing on the ground and we saw that run game get going last week,

I don't think we're going to be too concerned about Lamar Jackson. So this is a nice time to get in on him at that $6,900 price tag. I just don't think you're going to have too many opportunities to do that the rest of the season. maybe this is the only time you'll actually have an opportunity to get on them at less than 7,000. And I think people are sleeping on the Ravens in general this week. Just one and a half point favorites to get into the Colts. I know I fade the Colts all the time. I know it's bitten me quite a bit already this season.

But the Ravens are just, I think, obviously, the better team. And just one and a half points as the favorite in this game. I think we see a monster game from the Ravens offense. But still, I can't get into it. I still, I look down the quarterback list. I see Derek Carr at $5,700. The guy who has been really effective this season in what should be a high-scoring game against a Chargers offense that doesn't bother you. And then I see Drew Locke at $5,200 against an Atlanta defense that certainly doesn't bother you.

Coming off a 250-yard three-touchdown game a week ago. And even though they don't offer really much in the way of running the football, Locke does a little bit more than Carr. Those are two guys who I just really like and it gives you so many avenues at the other positions if you go with one of the two of them. Yeah, I mean, Carr at 5700 looks like a really nice cash option. I think the player that people are waiting to get more information on is Chase Daniel because if Matthew Stafford doesn't go, you're getting a quarterback at 4,000, which is really cheap, doesn't have to do a ton at that price point to make value. It opens up a ton of possibilities at the rest of your lineup.

If Stafford can't go, are you comfortable building lineups around Chase Daniel at 4K? I understand the argument for it, but I am not. You know, I mean, Chase Daniel is someone who has been, you know, the league's favorite backup quarterback for 12 years now. And, you know, kudos to him for being able to fill that role and for filling it admirably from a real life standpoint when teams, most recently the Bears, have asked him to do that. But it's not a comfortable experience. And being a serviceable real life quarterback where we just need to go and hold water for us for like two games until the starter comes back is way different than entrusting a DFS team to a guy. I don't really care what the price is. So the logic is fun, the thought process, and imagining what you can get in the lineup

alongside a $4,000 quarterback, also fun. But we're also talking about a guy who would be playing without his superstar wide receiver, and it's not like Marvin Jones has blown the doors off defenses in three, three different opportunities without Kenny Goliday this season. So I feel like the Chase Daniel's build is dead money to me. I don't care how inexpensive he is. I just, I can't get behind it. Sorry if that takes the wind out of your sales and you're into it.

I mean, I'm not committed to it, but it's something that I'm seeing thrown out there a lot. A lot of screenshots with Chase Daniel as part of the foundation of the lineup. Again, it opens up a lot of salary for you to go ahead and target a few upgrades elsewhere. I don't think it's the dumbest thing in the world, but I don't know if it's necessarily something you have to do, you know, to do well in cash game lineups this weekend. It's good for yucks on social media. I think it's just going to be yuck, though, on Sunday. And feel free to throw this back in me if he proves me wrong. Let's move on to tight end and defense really quickly here, wrap things up.

Yeah, I could say all the bad things in the world about Chase Daniel, but T.J. Hawkinson looking very nice to me at $5,100, especially if we are getting Matthew Stafford as the starter in this game. The only thing that would back me off T.J. Hawkinson is wanting to save a little bit more money at this position. But if savings aren't an issue for me, love the Hawkinson. at 5,100. Yeah, it's interesting because, you know, with Hawkinson, at that price, Darren Waller is only $700 more. I think if you can find the 700, it's worth just getting to Waller. And if you're stuck in that $5,100 range, you're going to start thinking about trying to save a

little bit of money. I think Noah Fant at 4,600 is one of my favorite plays on the board this week, especially for cash game builds. It's interesting to see Mark Andrews price down at 4,800. obviously with Lamar Jackson, not playing particularly well. That's going to be part of what's bringing that down. And, of course, the Colts have been really effective at stopping opposing tight end. So when you look at that Andrews price and you think about how this group of past catchers works, are you tempted to throw Mark Andrews out there, especially in tournament builds? I mean, I guess I should be after what I said about Lamar, but I'm really not.

I just feel like he's so touchdown dependent. And I just like I would rather find $300 of savings elsewhere and go with T.J. Hawkinson. Or I would rather, if I'm going to go that low, I like what you're calling out with Noah Fant. I think this is a really nice spot for the Denver offense. And, you know, I look at what the Chargers have done. And you and I talked about this on an episode of fantasy football in 15 earlier this week. I just can't believe that Hunter Henry is going to be a ghost all season if Justin Herbert plays this well. And I understand that Justin Herbert is going to take more shots and be able to make more things happen.

down the field than Tyra Taylor was going to, but Hunter Henry's a good player. Hunter Henry's always been a good player. No matter how different of a quarterback Justin Herbert is from what they thought they were getting in Tyra Taylor or what they've had previously with Philip Rivers. This is a good player, and I just can't imagine he's going to be totally

left out in the cold all season. So $4,000, it just feels like no matter what he's been this year, the price is right to take a chance on him. Yeah, I'm with you on Henry. I mean, I liked him a lot coming to the season. I think as tight ends go, he makes enough big plays to where he doesn't have to get crazy volume to be really productive. It just seems

like kind of an outlier sort of first half for him. I mean, in all but two games so far, he's been targeted at least seven times. So he's getting plenty of looks. I just think the chargers have spread the ball around a lot more than anybody would have expected. Really surprised to see Henry sitting on just one TD on the season. I think there's a really good chance he can change that against the Raiders on Sunday. All right. Let's wrap things up here. Derek defenses are the last thing that we'll look at. I like the Cardinals, $2,900, basically just making a bet on, you know, to a second start, another tough matchup, a road matchup, going up against a good team, a team that I think is going to be able to put up plenty of points against Miami's defense, which is going to put that defense in, you know, predictable passing situations, let the pass rush fly. I do think that this is a nice spot to get that Cardinals defense active.

Yep, I think that makes a lot of sense. We talk about it all the time. Pick on back. pick on rookies anytime you can. The Texans for just $200 more going up against Jake Luton and the Jags. I think they're pretty interesting if you got the extra couple hundred bucks. If you got to go a little cheaper and it ends up being Chase Daniel, I think the Vikings at $2,400 are fine. You're trying to save as much money as possible with your defense. You play what fits at the end.

It's the last thing you think about. It's the last thing we talk about. It almost doesn't matter because a defensive touchdown can make the entire week for you might get two. You might get a defensive touchdown and a return TD, right? There's so many strange things that can happen. There's so much variance with defenses each and every week. You don't want to expend too much energy looking into them and worrying about spending up enough to get a air quotes, good one.

They're very wise words to wrap up the DFS portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show. Derek, good luck, man. Have a good weekend. Yeah, you too. Good luck in week nine. Okay, you know what's next. We move along now to the gambling portion of this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and Athletic Football Show talking our favorite picks against the spread.

To do that, we bring on a Vicks Picks. Vic Tafer. How you doing today, Vic? Doing good, man. How you doing today? Yeah, I bet you're doing good. Four and one last week. I know it was slow.

I know it was a slow going to start the season, but what a way to start the second half of the year? Four and one a week ago, or second? or third four-in-one week of the season. I thought you were maybe going to get to 5-0. The one loss you took was on the Baltimore Ravens, but the other four, what you've got to feel great about with these four picks here, Vic, Minnesota over Green Bay, Cincinnati over Tennessee, Miami over the ramps.

That was also your upset pick, and it came through. And Seattle over San Francisco, I mean, those four games, you just had your feet kicked up all day. Those were never in doubt. Yeah, it's good for the confidence. I was definitely scuffing a little bit. I was getting down on myself, so questioning my methods. But, yeah, I'm feeling.

good. I'm ready to go for a big second half here. Yeah, right. I mean, one more good week and you're within striking distance of being even. It feels very good. 16, 23 and one on the year. I had what feels like my fifth or sixth straight week of being either two and three or three and two. This time, it was two and three. Seattle and Pittsburgh were my win. So we went one and oh in our consensus picks last week with Seattle to draw us even on consensus picks for the year five and five. I also had the other side of Baltimore loss year one loss with Pittsburgh, which makes me 3.1. Sort of got your number here, Vic, when we're going head to head. But you had my number in terms of just the right picks, which is way more important.

My loss is New Orleans, Buffalo, and Detroit last week. And that Detroit one, man, did I look foolish? Because they were never in that game with the Colts. So I fall to 22, 17, and one on the season. That's week eight. Let's look ahead to week nine again. These are courtesy of the Vegas Insider Consensus. As of, it is 4.15 p.m. on Thursday when Vic and I are sitting down to record this.

First game is a game that neither of us has a pick on, but it's an interesting game, so I do want to get your take on it. Seahawks heading to the bills, they are three-point favorites in Buffalo. 55 is the over-under. As of right now, that three-point line has an even money line on it, so you're paying a little bit less juice with that minus three at an even mark. to take the Seahawks. Again, neither of us has a pick on it. My lean would be toward the bills, but I just don't feel comfortable at all.

That would basically just be, you know, these are two good teams, I'll take the points, but it's not when I feel anywhere near good about picking either side. How about you on this one? Yeah, my lean is the other way I like the Seahawks. I just think that Josh Seahawks not played very well of late, I think last week. Everyone gave Cam Newton a hard time,

but Cam Newton actually was the best quarterback on the field last week. So I think that's probably an issue going forward. And Seahawks are kind of rolling. I think their defense is getting better. Obviously, Russell Wilson's having a MVP-type season, so I think that's a good spot for them. Yeah, you know, there's never feels comfortable betting against Russell Wilson either. It always feels like if things don't go right,

it's not going to be his fault. And you just don't want to be in that position. So again, an easy one to stay away from, but a fun one, one of the highlights of the slate with the Seahawks going into Buffalo to take on the bills. Next game up, another one that neither of us has a pick. Falcons minus four at home against the dead. Denver, Broncos, 50 is the over under in that game.

Next one is one where we do have a pick, and in fact, it is you who has a pick. Tennessee Titan, six-point favorites at home against the Chicago Bears. 46 and a half is the over-under. We've got some injury issues, namely Jadavia and Clowney on Tennessee's side. We have some COVID-19 issues on Chicago's side and potentially some missing holes up front in the offensive line for the Bears, but that is not stopping you, not deterring you from taking the six-point underdog road team. Bears, what has you on this squad? I just think it's too many points.

I think the Bears' defense is still pretty good. They hung in their last week against the Saints, covered that one. I think the Titans have not been great against a number this year. I think they're a little overrated. So the Titans probably win the game, but I just think six points is too much. It's a bad defense, too, in Tennessee. And, you know, it could be the right formula for the Bears' offense going up against a bad defense in the Tennessee Titans, a team that has given up a lot of yards per play.

They have not been particularly efficient on defense. the way that they have been on offense and the emergence of Darnell Mooney last week for the Bears. Probably his statistical ceiling, five catches, 69 yards and a touchdown, but definitely showed that he needs to be involved. He can be a big play guy and take at least some of the pressure off of Alan Robinson. And Alan Robinson has had to do basically all of the heavy lifting for Chicago's offense this season. So it's got to be nice for Nick Foles in this offense to have somewhere else to turn where they can get not just a conversion on third and five, but a big play.

chunk plays. Darnel Mooney and Alan Robinson, really the only guys in this bear's offense who are going to do that for you. So nice for them to have that weapon, especially against the Tennessee defense, that really has struggled to contain the pass this season. That's my lean as well, too many points, especially for a defense that week after week has shown up. Not going to be one of my five picks, but I do lean toward the Bears. Next game is an NFC North game going from an NFC North team to an NFC North game. Vikings are minus four against the Lions. 52 and a half is the over. under on this one. Neither of us has a pick. That line also assumes that Matthew Stafford will be able to

play so far so good for Matthew Stafford. He's on the COVID-19 list, but he does not have it himself, just been in close contact with someone who does. So so long as he tests negative every single day leading up to Sunday, he will be able to play. Of course, we're not going to know until Sunday if that final thumbs up comes through. So we're both taking a pass on that one. We will move along to a big clash in the AFC, Baltimore Ravens, minus one and a half on the road at the Indianapolis Colts. 47 is the over under, and I, Vic, am taking the Baltimore Ravens for me. This is that phrase I like to throw out every now and again when it feels right. Let's not overthink this one. This is the don't overthink it special of the week for me. Even though Baltimore's offense has been uneven

compared with where it was a season ago, I think they are still comfortably, comfortably the better team. And fading the Colts, it hasn't worked out for me too well this year. I will admit that right up front. But I do think that this is a spot where we're overrating the Colts a little bit and the line is underrating the Ravens a little bit. They nearly won that game against the Steelers and they had to come from behind. And what you like the most if you take a silver lining away from that game against the Steelers last week is that we finally saw the Ravens run game really get cooking in a big way.

With J.K. Dobbins going north of 100 yards on 15 carries, Gus Edwards running for 87 yards on 16 carries. Lamar Jackson running for 65 yards on 16 carries, and he had a 20-25-yard touchdown run taken off the board because of a holding call. There's a lot of good happening in that Ravens offense. And while we need to see more from the passing game, we need to see more out of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, just the fact that you're now going to have teams accounting for J.K. Dobbins,

I think, in a way that they hadn't really all season, is going to open up some throwing lanes for Lamar Jackson. Do we see that 2019 efficiency? I'm not sure. That might have just been a special season lightning in a bottle. I don't know if they can get back to that level of efficiency. But the fact that we saw the run game be so effective against a Pittsburgh defense tells me that Baltimore is finally starting to get things right offensively.

And I just think they can overwhelm an Indianapolis team that really does need to win with its defense. And if their defense puts the offense in good situations, as it did against Detroit last week, then the offense can flourish. But they need that defense as a starting point. And I just don't think it is going to be there against Baltimore, the way that it was against Detroit and the way that it's been against some of the other teams that they have taken control of this season. So give me the Ravens.

All this line asks you to do is basically win the game and you win your bet. I do like Baltimore. One of my favorite picks of the week here. No pick for you on this game, at least in terms of being in your top five. But are you with me or against me on this one? Yeah, I'm with you. I have no faith in the Colts offense. I think the Ravens definitely are the better team.

You mentioned the running game. That's so big for them to get that going. So I think it's a good spot for him. I think my one concern is obviously the O-Lines, not as great as it was. They lost Stanley after some other losses earlier this year. So Lamar Jackson, the four picks, whatever. I mean, you raise your eyes a little bit, wonder what's going on.

But, yeah, again, I have no faith in the Colts offense. So I think it's a good pick. And I think the passing game can bounce back still relative to where it's been so far this season. We knew that Lamar Jackson was going to come down from that 9% touchdown rate that he had a year ago. We've seen Patrick Mahomes at that height. he comes way down the next year. We've seen Aaron Rogers at that height and he comes way down the next year. That was just bound to happen. You can't put up back to back 9% touchdown rate seasons. But he's still at 6.3%. That is still a comfortably above average passing touchdown

rate. It just wasn't quite there for the offense in full form. And I think we started to see that a week ago. So I do think that the Ravens are in a buy spot, not just this week, but probably going forward while you can still get them. Next up, team, that is another powerhouse in the AFC. the Kansas City Chiefs, big favorites at home, they welcome the Carolina Panthers to Kansas City. 10.5 is the spread on this one, 52 and a half is the over-under. Panthers expect to get Christian McCaffrey back, not a guarantee as of this recording, but it's basically a guarantee without being a spoken guarantee. Vic, you are on the underdogs, taking the 10.5 points and the Carolina Panthers.

What has you on this squad? Basically, just that the Panthers have been competitive all season long. Their offense is underrated. I think Bridgewater has been good. They've got three good receivers. I think McCaffrey back. I think Mike Davis kind of started running on a fumes a little bit the last few weeks. I think McCaffrey's a big addition, obviously.

So all I'm asking is they stay competitive in this game. I'm not saying they're going to win. So I think it's a good number. I think they'll be able to hang around. Yeah, they've been a really competitive team. And they've found ways to replace that Christian McCaffrey production. Obviously, you're not going to find someone who is exactly McCaffrey. You mentioned Mike Davis and started to run out of fumes

understandably, but then look at what they do with Curtis Samuel, you know, last Thursday night against the Falcons finding interesting ways to get him involved in the offense. It's been a really positive season, you know, pretty much no matter what happens from this point forward unless they just totally flop over the second half of the season. You got to feel pretty good if you're Matt Rule, Joe Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, moving forward with the team that you have in Carolina. Make the playoffs this year. Don't make the playoffs this year, whatever. It was kind of a free season and they're making the most of it. I would lean toward the chiefs. That's just because I have a bias. toward great teams, but the fact that, I mean, you know, you can probably, you know,

if you just think off the top of your head, think of plenty of times where I've backed the chiefs just based on them being the chiefs. So the fact that I am not doing that here, you know, shows how much I agree with you in that the Panthers are just a competitive team, a team that maybe you don't feel super comfortable laying 10 and a half points again. So you've got the Panthers, I've got nothing, and we move on to a game where neither of us has a pick. Texans and Jaguars, Texans are six and a half point favorites at Jacksonville. Jake Luton getting his first career start in place of the injured guard room. You've got a 50 and a half over under on this game.

I just don't know what to expect. I'm not going to pretend that I know what to expect. I remember watching Jake Luton at Oregon State, and you can make some plays down the field, but there's just no part of me that wants to get involved with Jake Luton or with the 1 in 6 Houston Texan. So an easy stay away, we move on to our last game of the early slate on Sunday. It is another consensus pick for us here, Vic, want to know last week. Hopefully we can do it again here this week.

NFC East is our division for this one. Washington football team, they are at home just under a field goal. Two and a half points is what they are laying to. The New York Football Giants, 43 is the over under in this one. We both like the home team. We're both back in the footballs. For me, it's a lot about the defense, a lot about the buy. Why are you on the footballs this week?

Pretty much, you know, Dane Times to me, I guess the worst nickname ever. It's not. I don't know how I got the nickname, but these are pretty bad. Besides the accuracy, for me, it's his pocket presence. And the one thing in Washington does well, they have a good defensive front. They get some pressure on the quarterback. I got some bad recipe for the Giants this week. So I like Washington to win this game.

Yeah, you know, I agree with you on that. And it feels as though this is a little bit of an overreaction to the Giants, you know, playing maybe their best game of the season a week ago and making things interesting with the Buccaneers. on Monday night football. But, I mean, throw that in the mix as well, right? I mean, you put that into the mix here, too. And now you have not only a Washington team that is coming off of a buy,

but you have a Giants team that is on the road on a short week after a very tough game against a really high-quality opponent in Tampa Bay. A lot of that would just, you know, the trends would point you in the direction of Washington. Washington strength, as you said, that pass rush matches up with a giant's weakness, the protection of Daniel Jones and Daniel Jones' ability to second. and evade pressure. So all of that really does point, I think, to a Washington victory and a Washington cover. This line feels a point or a point in a half a little bit too low for me. The one thing, and this is a little bit of a stretch, I admit it. The one thing that has me concerned on Washington's side of the ball is James Bradbury, likely going to shadow Terry McLaren, James Bradbury, one of the very best cover corners in the NFL. Could be a tough assignment. It will be a tough assignment. It could be a tough day for Terry McLaren. but still feel like this is a spot where Washington's defense can really control the game and Washington's offense can do enough or more than enough to get a three-point victory.

So give both of us the Washington football team minus two and a half over the Giants. We move in to the late slate three games in that 405, 425 p.m. Eastern window for week nine. The first one, Chargers and the Raiders and AFC West Battle. Chargers are at home, and this game is a pick-em, Vic, which surprises me a little bit. and a half is the over under. I said to you before we got going that my top three picks were picks I felt pretty good about the other two. I was sort of hemming and hawn. This is one of those other two. And I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders. And the reason why I come back to the Raiders is it's really twofold here. The first is that I think that we are, or I think this line, excuse me,

undersells the offense. I think it's putting a little bit too much of an emphasis on what we saw last week in that ridiculous weather game at Cleveland. It undersells. It has a little bit too much recency bias in for what Derek Carr's game has been to this point of the season, really been a very effective quarterback, as you know, as you've seen up close and personal, maybe one of the best seasons he's ever had, probably one of the two best seasons he's ever had, if not the very best season that he's ever had in his career. You're really not afraid of that Chargers defense, and Josh Jacobs can, I think, really feast on this defense, especially if Bosa, who is in concussion protocol, is unable to go in this one.

And then I also think that we are underselling just how good the Raiders have been. I mean, think back to some of the victories that the Raiders have this year. Be the Chiefs. They beat the Saints. I just don't feel like this gives them enough of a credit for what they've done to this point of the season, even though they're on the road and even though Justin Herbert absolutely looks the part of a franchise quarterback. So all we got to do is win. I just think the Raiders are the better team, no matter where they play this game. So I will go with the Raiders.

You know this team, much better than I do. You know this team basically better than anyone not named John Gruden. Am I on point here? Where are you lean on this one? Yeah, you got some good points. I'm leaning the other way, only because of the lack of a pass rush. I think they've had now with no quarterback sacks and two quarterback hits in the last two games. I think, Justin Herbert, Schoennerner, Schoen is pretty good.

They've got weapons down the field and also in the short range. So I just think the, um, defenses will kind of revert back to what's been. I know last we had that huge windstorm. They give up six points, but I'm not sure you can bring that the wind machines with you to L.A. So I think, again, you mentioned the spread. To me, it's kind of a trap line.

I think it's open at what Chargers minus three. It's kind of been bet down now. So that worries me a little bit if I was going to take the Raiders. So I'm leaning the other way, so I'm going with the Chargers to win the game. Vic, I told you right at the start of this, that I didn't feel good about this week. I didn't feel good about this game in particular. I needed some confirmation. bias there, man.

I'm with you on the, who's that with you on the Ravens? The Ravens, that's a good pick. Washington, we're together. We can't be up. That was one of the, okay, Washington's good. The Ravens were one of the three. I didn't need any help on the Ravens. I was one of the three I already felt good about.

This is your team. Sorry, man, I tried. I tried. I just couldn't do it. That spread to me is really fishy. The open that charge is minus three. It definitely caught my eye. Like, that's kind of weird.

All right, all right. I hear you. Well, I'm going to roll with the Raiders. Give me the Raiders as one of my picks. So let's move on to our next game in this late window. Steelers, 14 point favorites in Dallas. 42 is the over-under in this one. Neither of us is picking it.

This game has to get ugly. We still don't know if it's Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert starting for Dallas. 14's a big line. I just want a no piece of it. And really, I don't even think we need to waste any time talking about it. Pittsburgh's going to run away with this one, what this is. Pittsburgh on the road, so this is a CBS game. Man, CBS execs were probably looking their lips at the thought of this game back in August.

Now it's just a complete nothing of a game with Dak Prescott out, the Cowboys, looking like they're headed for a top five pick rather than being a playoff contender. Last game in that late slate, Cardinals minus four and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins. 48.5 is the over-under in this one. I'm going back to my roots, Vic. Give me the Arizona Cardinals four and a half point favorites at home. Again, this is a situation where it just feels as though the Cardinals are comfortably the better team.

and four and a half is not a nothing of a line, and we know what Miami's defense has been able to do of late. And this is a defense that I think is finally starting to get the credit that it really probably has deserved for most of the season after what we all saw them do to the Rams a week ago, really made it to a Tunga Bailoa's debut for that team, the undercard, the secondary story, because of how that game, excuse me,

was totally dominated by Miami's defense and special teams. So that is not something you just hand wave away, But with the way we've seen Arizona play, with the way we've seen them play offense, the fact that it feels like they're just getting better and better, that they can lose a player like Kenyon Drake and not lose a step and perhaps even upgrade the running back position by getting Chase Edmonds a larger role in the offense. Everything to me shapes up like the fact that, you know, Miami is a plucky team and a competitive team. Arizona is a really good team.

And I think that's ultimately going to be what shows through in this game. So I do like the Cardinals, four and a half again. is the line here. No pick for you on this one, but what's the way that you lean in this game? And I can like it because my upset special is the, is a Dolphins. So I had a hard time finding upside special. But like you mentioned, the defense, I think it's been pretty impressive. And I think Brian Flores, as shown as a great coach already. I think just the whole way, you know, we bench Fitzpatrick, everyone kind of thought it was a bad move. But obviously the team responded a while. They dominated their really good Rams team at home. So I think the defense will

travel well. I think they'll be able to hang in this game if I won it. outright. Yeah, the courage of his convictions to Brian Flores, already showing himself to be one of the best coaches, I think, in the NFL after what they did last season, the way they've started this season. I mean, this team is firmly in the playoff mix halfway through the year. And when you look at what's still left on their schedule, a couple of soft expectation games in the AFC East, we could definitely be talking about the Dolphins as a playoff team this year. That would be at least one year ahead of schedule. So totally with you. They're a team that I generally, that I start out almost in a default position of wanting to back, but not against the Arizona Cardinals with the way that offense is going. Two more games left on the slate. I still have one pick left to make. You still have two picks left to make. They are our primetime games.

We start with a marquee game. Sunday night. Schedulers definitely got this one right. Buccaneers, minus four at home against the New Orleans Saints huge game in the NFC South. Remember, the Saints already won a game against the Buccaneers. I believe that was the first week of the season. So winner of this game is in the driver's seat in the NFC South. This is Antonio Brown's Buccaneers debut.

The team could also get Chris Godwin back from his fractured finger. On the other side, Michael Thomas, still trying to make his way back to the field from the hamstring and ankle injuries that have dogged him really all season. But it should be a great game. We're expecting a great one again. Four points. The Buccaneers are favored by in this one.

And we've got one more head-to-head. pick here this week, Vic. You are on the Buccaneers, excuse me. I am on the Saints. I'll let you take this one first. Why do you like the home team? The Saints are what? They won the last four games. They're pretty close. It kind of squeak by, so I'm not totally buying that they're all the way back. The defense still, to me, is not obviously where it was a year ago. I think the Bucks were playing really well. I watched them obviously on Money Night Football. They didn't play very well in Money night football. But previous week against the radio, they played really well. Devin White is a big time star player on defense. So I like their defense. I like Tom Brady and

Gronkin back in the mix. So I like they avenge their week one loss and win this one out, right? Yeah, this is going to be a really fun game. And yeah, I think Tampa is probably right there with Seattle because of the way Russell Wilson's playing. But top to bottom, I think Tampa Bay probably has the best roster in the NFC. And that's really been my go-to argument for the Saints for at least two, I think three years running that just top to bottom they had the best roster in the NFC. and I no longer think that's the case when you look at what Tampa Bay has put together defensively and adding Antonio Brown into that mix with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gruncowski, and a maddening usage of their backs with Leonard Fortinette and Ronald Jones,

but an effective usage for them, no matter who it is, right? Both guys have been playing very well, whoever it's been, in the leading role. But four points, it just feels like a little bit too much for me to a team like the Saints that, you know, while it feels like the Saints have not had their A game in any game that they've played this season. And yet here they still are, top of the NFC South, one of the best teams in the NFC, clear Super Bowl contenders, Alvin Camara putting the entire offense on his back week in and week out. And this guy's going out there and rolling up 150 yard from scrimmage games as though it's nothing, as though it's just what he was born to do, which, you know what?

It certainly looks like it was. And I just feel like this is a game that stays within field goal. Two very good teams, two very good quarterbacks, two quarterbacks who are going to take care of the ball. Teams that know each other pretty well, even with all the changes on Tampa Bay side of the ball. Sean Payton is no stranger to Tom Brady or playing games against Tom Brady. So it's two

teams, I think, that have too good a sense for one another and are both too good for this to be anything more than a field gold game. You put this game in New Orleans, you make the Saints four-point favorites, and I'll take the Buccaneers. Make the Saints three and a half point favorites, and I'll take the Buccaneers. I just think this is the sort of game that stays within a field goal.

It does worry me a little bit. I mean, you know, I'm not going to win every single one of our head-to-head bets here. So it definitely has the feeling of one that you could strike against me. And it's going to be a fun one with the Saints and Bucks getting together on Sunday night football. One more game left. Talk about the exact opposite, right? NBC, just super happy with the game that they got on Sunday night.

ESPN, not so much with this Monday night game. Patriots 7 and a half point favorites against the New York Jets and Vic. As I said, you still had two picks coming with the primetime games left. So that means you have a pick in this Monday night football game. Who is it and why? Yeah, I'm a sick puppy. I went with the Jets. I'm taking the Jets.

They may win this one outright. But to me, it's a bad spot. The Patriots don't care anymore. Probably a lot of players were kind of sad that weren't traded away because his team is definitely not trying to win this year. They're probably, they can even get into. the Trevor Lawrence Derby if they play their cards right. So I'm not sure the Jets can score points if Flacco's playing, but their defense is not

terrible. I think they'll be able to. I mean, if Crowder's playing, it's a big deal because they actually have some offensive if he's on the field. So it's more of an anti-Patriots pick than there's a Jets pick, but, you know, whatever. They're home. We're getting seven and a half points. Let's party.

Yeah, that's my lean too. I just don't think the, what have the Patriots shown us that suggest they should be favored by seven and a half against anyone, as bad as the Jets are? And the Patriots have not showed us a thing that suggests that they deserve this sort of respect against really any team. I don't care who it is, and especially on the road. So I lean toward the Jets, I just, I can't do it. I mean, that game against the Bills where they lost by eight, that's their, that's their smallest margin of victory. That's their one cover, right?

Those are one cover of the whole season. Yeah. And their smallest margin of defeat all season. I just, I can't make it one of my five. Even though I had to struggle to find those last two, you are a braver man than I going with the New York Jets. So spiritually, I am rolling with you because that is the way that I would lean in that one. Let's quickly wrap up our five picks. You have the Buccaneers, minus four against the Saints, the Bears, six-point underdogs in Tennessee.

Those New York Jets, seven and a half-point underdogs at home against the Patriots, Panthers, you're liking the dogs. They are 10.5 point dogs on the road in Kansas City. And finally, Washington, two and a half-point favorites at home against the Giants. I am with you on Washington. I am against you. the Saints and Buccaneers game and then my other three picks, Ravens minus one and a half at Indy, the Arizona Cardinals minus four and a half at home against Miami and those Las Vegas Raiders.

Pick them in L.A. taking on the Chargers. You mentioned the Dolphins as your upset pick. I'm going to go with the Saints. I'm just going to trust a good team here. I was with you. I struggled to find a straight up upset that I really liked that I really wanted to get behind. So when in doubt, go with a good team, even if they also are playing against a good team. So I will take the Saints as my underdog, my upset victory pick for week nine. One last quick look at Survivor here. We're into Week 9. Some survivor pool is already done.

Other ones are obviously very deep. You're getting into places where, depending on your pool, maybe you have to make two picks to still survive and advance. So for the sake of just keeping things easy on us, going to assume that if you need the chiefs, you'll take the chiefs. So you've already taken the chiefs, right? We're not going to give you any of those obvious ones. We're just going to assume that you are digging deep. If I was digging beyond the obvious teams here, Vic, I think I would look to the Arizona Cardinals. I think that they are just really set up for, you know, a relatively comfortable victory. So they would be a team. I would also consider the Titans at home

against the Bears. Where would you look if you're looking beyond those first order obvious teams? Yeah, I might go down, even go with the Texans. I know it's ridiculous because they're, what, the one game this year? But Johnny Luton, I actually watched him in college, and he wasn't great in college. So a six-round pick getting his first start, and the Texans should have some kind of pride. So if they lose a Johnny Lutton, then I don't know what's going on. I mean, I'm not sure. Jake.

I mean, that's how it says it all, right? Jake Luton. I'm sorry, Johnny Luton, Jake Luton. I don't know his name. But all I know is he's tall. That's why he's starting. He's six foot six, so they put him in there. But I just can't imagine they lose to him.

But you never know. But that'd be the one I probably. If I was reaching, that's where I'd reach. Jaguars have a type when it comes to backup quarterbacks with him and Mike Glennon, huh? Yeah, and poor Mike Lennon, couldn't get, you got bypassed, poor guy. Poor guy. Speaking of looting, right, looted the bears for $20 million or whatever that was to start. He's made a lot of money for sure.

It's a huge number. I forgot what it was. He was in the Raiders' lives. He's a great guy. I mean, obviously, you like to see nice guys finish first. So he's a good dude. So why not just keep cashing in and keep moving on. Hey, good for him.

No one should besmirch him for that. And you know what? You're a pretty good guy too. Vic, we're going to call it a show here with that on that note. Thanks so much for listening. Of course, me, Vic Tafer, Derek Van Riper, we'll be back with you in this exact same context. One week from now.

And hey, if you're not getting athletic subscriber, You can get yourself in the door just $1 a week. Go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod to do so. For Vic and DVR, I am Michael Beller. Thank you for listening. We'll be back with you next week. Until then, have a great weekend and enjoy all the week nine action. This was the Athletic Football Show.