The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Week 9 Monday Hangover — Colts fire Frank Reich (and hire Jeff Saturday?!?); the stacked-up AFC Wild Card race

Episode Date: November 8, 2022

The Colts shocked the NFL world on Monday when they fired Frank Reich. And then they did so again when they announced Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. Colts beat writer Zak Keefer joins Robert Mays and Mike Sando to discuss what the hell is going on in Indianapolis.Then, Robert and Sando break down the AFC playoff picture, not including the current division leaders. Who among the Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, Bengals and Patriots is most likely to make the playoffs? Who's least likely? Who could potentially be in control of their division by the end of the season. The guys consider those questions, and more.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube2:58 Fallout in Indy after the Colts fire Frank Reich31:29 Best team in the AFC that isn't leading its division42:44 Who's the next best team?46:09 Which AFC Wild Card contender are you least confident in?51:44 Who's happiest to be in this position?63:44 Which coach is most concerned about meeting with his owner?72:24 Which of these teams could end up controlling its division? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Monday, November 7th. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Mike Sando is going to join us a little bit later to dig into our normal Monday hangover chatter. We're going to focus on three games that we think, give us a little bit of a window into the AFC wildcard picture. And just talk about what the AFC wildcard and AFC playoff landscape looks like halfway through the season.

We're also going to talk with Zach Kiefer about the Colts' football. Firing Frank Reich. Pretty surprising news to some people, but after their performance yesterday, maybe not the most surprising news in the world. We talked about that decision, what led up to it, what comes next for the Colts? What's going on with this Jeff Saturday decision? A lot to dig into. Excited to chat with both of those guys. Let's get to it.

All right. To discuss Frank Reich's firing and what comes next for the Colts, we are joined by Mike Sando and our Colts writer here at the athletic, Zach Kiefer. Zach, how you doing over there? Sure, it's been an interesting day. nearly drove off the road this morning coming home from the airport from Boston just another day on the Colts beat right it's probably as stunning a day as I've had since the former quarterback retired in 2019 you're gonna have a lot of stories to tell when you're an old man bouncing your grandkids got on your knee I'll tell you that right now so I want to start this with a conversation about how we arrived at this moment because it doesn't seem that abrupt when you consider how badly the Colts were playing but when you think about preseason expectations the way that first Frank Rick was talked about and kind of held up in league circles. It does feel like we arrived at this moment fairly suddenly.

So what do you think led to this point and to Frank Reich ultimately getting fired by the Colts? Yeah, I think a lot of people outside of Indianapolis lose track of how much turnover they've had here, right? So seven quarterbacks in five years. That's seven different starters, six full-time starters in five years. That's unfair to any head coach. And Frank Reich's had to deal with that. and he's dirty, his hands are dirty, and Chris Ballard's hands are dirty. But to go back to where we talked in August, Robert, I mean, this team had high hopes.

They had division title hopes and playoff hopes. And to think where we're at right now is absolutely surreal and unprecedented because Jeff Saturday is the interim coach. Sam Ellinger is the quarterback. They do not have an O.C. And they're running out of people to fire. Why now? What is to be gained by firing Frank Rehn? at this stage of the proceedings.

I guess that's my biggest question that I have at this point. It's just that someone has to go after the way they played against New England on Sunday. But like you said, they don't even have anyone to call offensive plays. Like, why are the Colts as an organization in a better place at the end of this season if Frank Reich loses his job on November 6th? The only way to answer that is if they have a top six or seven or 10 pick, right? That's the only way the season is a success. because you have turned through every quarterback in five years.

And to think, you know, this team, they put together the worst offensive performance anyone's ever seen yesterday. They were 0 for 14 on third down. They haven't scored a touchdown. They haven't scored more than a touchdown in three games this season. I mean, it's just the offense is regressing to the point where it's unwatchable. And Frank Reich needs to take the fall. for that in their eyes. However, these were Jim Ursay moves. It was his decision to start

Sam Ellinger. It was his decision to move off from Carson Wentz last January. So they really set up their coach to fail. Now, Frank Reich has not absolved the blame in this. He didn't get it done. But by no means, this is absolutely an organizational failure. Is Jim Ursay a bad owner? The funny thing about that, Mike, is he spent 25 years trying not to be his father. And for those who don't know, his father was impetuous and irrational and would fire people before lunch and then forget after lunch that he had fired them. He would storm down on the sidelines and demand the coach change the quarterback. And he would forget the quarterback's name by the fourth quarter because he was seven bourbons in. Jim Mersey has done everything the

opposite of that. He hired Bill Polly and he got out of the way. They were the winning his team of the decade. He's inching back towards the point where he's meddling. And it's been very clear. He made the decision the last two times they've changed quarterbacks from Carson Wentz, from Matt Ryan. And I don't know this for sure. We're going to hear from him in a couple hours, but it sure seems like this has got Jim Mersey's hands written all over it. And that's kind of what it feels like now is that you had this team that was a beacon of success, that was a model NFL franchise in a lot of ways for the better part of this century. And how much of that is having Peyton Manning? And then in the one, the one, the one.

moment where you can maybe run into a little bit of turmoil, the next phase of your franchise is decided for you because you get Andrew Luck. They've never had to navigate any sort of fallow period or any sort of uncertainty at the most important parts of your organization because they've stumbled into these solutions over and over again. So now that it's a little bit murkier and it's a little bit more confusing, can they find their way out of this? Maybe we save that for the end of this conversation, but that's what I'm left with, because if this is Jim Mersey really is, and they don't have a ready-made solution to kind of take them to the next thing, the way they did in 2012, what does the next five years of Colts football look like? I've talked to Chris Ballard about

this, and the GM said something interesting. He said, now we're going to see what it's like to be on the other side. Now these fans who have been literally cashing a lottery ticket for 25 years, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck. Like you said, the decision was, was made for them. It was that simple. Now you're seeing what the other half has lived through. Browns fans, Bengals fans. I could go on and on. The Broncos the last five or six years. This is the reality of this league and this team hasn't had to face that since I was in high school or before. And that's the reality they're going to have to face. And this rent a QB cycle that they've been on for five years where they just go find someone else's quarterback off a garage sale. It's

gotten them nowhere. And to be honest, I think given a little bit of time. And I asked this to Frank Wright a couple weeks ago. And he said, I think we've done better than most expected considering what we've been through. I think that's a fair statement. That doesn't make it okay that they whiffed on Carson Wentz and they whiffed on Matt Ryan. But 40 and 33 and one with six different quarterbacks, that's pretty good. So I agree with that. But the Carson Wentz part of this is the unforgivable part of this from Frank Reich's side. Because if Carson, if Frank Reich doesn't beat the table, for Carson Wentz and doesn't say, I want to go get Carson Wentz. If that doesn't

transpire, if they find a quarterback solution that doesn't involve the same sort of investment, that doesn't involve the same sort of full-throated support that Carson Wentz did from Frank Reich, no matter the wins and losses, do you think Frank Reich is still the head coach of the Colts today? I do. And here's what I'm going to throw out at you. What happened right before they went and got Carson Wentz? Who was the quarterback? Philip Rivers. And that went really well. And he was 39, and he was playing on a busted toe and he was really good and they were really good. They were 11.5. They almost beat the bills in the playoffs.

Frank Craig had a lot of say in that decision. And I had heard a year later that Jim orsay never even wanted to go get Carson Wentz. But Frank Reich's direct quote, I love sticking my neck out for people I believe in. The Carson Wentz experiment was not supposed to be a one year or two year thing. It was supposed to be a four or five year thing. They were supposed to find this stability that they'd been looking for since Andrew left. they blew it up last year. They went and got Matt Ryan.

It blew up. That's why we are where we are. You know what came to mind there, Zach, was you think of the unthinkable event of the prime tier one quarterback retiring prematurely, right? You did a podcast series on it. Everyone should check it out. I think also if the pandemic doesn't happen, I think that then that's another hopefully once in a lifetime event, but something certainly in my lifetime I've never

had before. Without that, I feel like that whatever disappointment there was over whence wouldn't have felt so personal because of the owner's frustration, at least my perception of it. Do you agree with that as well that if that had just been more of a normal year? And yeah, you have a tough loss to the Jaguars. I mean, that's tough. But we've all covered teams. Those happen. I mean, you hit your head against the wall a couple times in these things before you get over the top. That almost feels like another perfect storm of things that otherwise Wynch probably comes back, right? That I can't answer.

I will tell you this, Mike. They can say whatever they want publicly about the vaccine and Carson's refusal to get it, but that played a big role in this. And they're going to downplay that, but behind the scenes, I was told that was a big factor in this. It was a big factor in this. And it wasn't just about Jacksonville and it wasn't about the collapse at the end of the season. Right.

They just weren't bought in on him for most of the second half of the year last year. and then Los Vegas and Jacksonville that cemented it for them. But there's a little bit of arrogance that they think they can just move off from that guy. 27 and 7, that doesn't tell the whole story, but those are his numbers, 27 touchdowns, 7 picks. That doesn't tell the whole story, but to move off from him to go to Matt Ryan and think everything was just going to be fixed, when you have an offensive line that's become one of the worst in the league, you've seen it just crumble so much quicker than anyone would have ever imagined. their willingness to do this.

Their willingness to play the quarterback roulette the way that they have over the last three or four years. And basing this and kind of the foundation of the idea being that we're going to build up the infrastructure. And even if we have to move off of Matt Ryan a couple years from now, quarterbacks will want to play here and they will succeed because Frank is here. That was a part of the mindset. Now, if you remove that, what are you left with? It's not just that, Robert. It's this. It's the conversation that Frank Reich had with Matt Ryan two weeks ago when he benched him against his wishes.

I do not think Frank Reich wanted to bench Matt Ryan, and I don't think the locker room wanted to bench Matt Ryan. He told him, we screwed this up. We promised you a great offensive system with a great running back. And what's the other part? A great offensive line that's falling apart. And like you said, that was their calling card. That's why Matt Ryan wanted to come here. And so many quarterbacks wanted to come here, Philip Rivers, Carson Went, before that,

to play for Frank Reich. Now who's the answer? It's just Saturday for the next eight weeks, which sounds absurd to just say out loud. So remember, though, when they got rid of Carson Wentz, they didn't know they could get Matt Ryan. And now we're learning, hey, you know what? The owner likes Sam Ellinger.

That's what he'd go with. And we know Ballard probably liked him. Maybe he wasn't as strong as Ursa, or maybe it was. I don't know. But at that point, was Erse prepared to just play Sam Elnger at that point? And then how did they come to Ryan?

Was that seen as like another, was that was basically Frank Reich putting his neck out again for Matt Ryan? Was that more of, was that his type of decision? Was that a unified no-brainer? Hey, we're all excited. It wasn't Frank Reich's decision. They pulled his decision-making abilities after he whipped on Carson. But I'll tell you guys this. After I found out they were going to move on from Carson, no matter what.

Remember, like you said, Mike, they didn't move on from Carson for Matt Ryan. They moved on from Carson without a plan. That's how desperate they were. But the point I'm making is the first name I heard after I realized they were moving on from Carson no matter what was Sam Allenger. And no offense to Sam Ellinger, but I shook my head because that's not realistic. You don't start the season with Sam Eanger as your QB1 unless you're just trying to find a way to the top of the draft, right? Unless you're trying to find a new QB1. Right, which honestly losses are more valuable at this point than wins.

because this team is going in one direction, but Jim Mersey wanted to see Sam Ellinger play. Absolutely. Chris Ballard wanted to see what they had in Sam Ellinger, and that absolutely hamstrung Frank Reich. That doesn't mean he didn't do a poor job of coaching the offense. But to make a coach change quarterbacks to Sam Ellinger and then pull the rug, pull his job from him two weeks later, that's just, that's just, that's just, that's just melt practice. Well, Frank Wreck stuck his neck out for Carson Wentz, and he stuck his neck out a little bit further, before Matt Ryan. Now the guillotine has fallen. And now the Colts are left with Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. We were on a call. And Bellar said to me, he said, who do you think

the Colts interim head coach is? And I said, Bubba Ventron. I don't know. You know, is somebody that makes sense. Oh, that's what I've heard. Yeah. And then the next name out of his mouth, I would have named 50 people before Jeff Saturday would have been the person. And that is nothing against Jeff Saturday. This is about norms. This is about giving somebody the job who's done anything remotely associated with the job. So since this news has happened, Zach, it's probably been, what, an hour, 90 minutes? What are the rumblings that you have heard in the building from people that are around about this decision?

It's the same response you had. It's the same response everybody's had. They're stunned. They don't believe it. This is like a circus. Everybody's in disbelief. And both things can be true. I mean, Jeff Saturday is revered in this city.

He's a great human being. He's one of the greatest players this team's had in its history. and he's also never been on the sidelines for an NFL or college game as a coach, as a volunteer coach, as a position coach, as a coordinator, as a head coach. This is a gutsy gamble, and I hope I'm wrong about this, but this is unprecedented, and this ends one way. And this has got Ursa's hands written all over it. What do the next 24 hours even look like? what does he need to do in terms of operations, figuring out the staff, who's going to call plays, what the meeting schedule looks like? Like, practically, what is this going to look like?

So this is, this is funny. This is what I'm picturing is happening right now. Just Saturday is going to fly in Ursaid's private jet back to this facility. And he's going to tour the building and he's going to introduce him still to his coaching staff. Has that ever happened before in the middle of a season? He doesn't know every coach on this staff. He was here last weekend for Tartre Glenn's Ring of Honor induction ceremony. And I guarantee you the seeds of this were first playing at that weekend.

Because Ursay knew that Reich's days were numbered. But if you ever heard of the- I was going to make a joke, they should have kept everybody in town. Everybody that was there for the ceremony, they should just made them the coaching staff. Jeff's going to say, hey, can you call plays? Have you called plays before? What's your name again? Have you called?

Like, this is an NFL team, allegedly. Zach, they had, John Fox has been the coach of three NFL teams. He's in the building. Gus Bradley has been an NFL head coach. He's in the building. This didn't need to happen. Scott Mlanovic has been a two-time CFL head coach. He's in the building.

He's 49 years old. He's not 30 years old or 25 years old. I mean, Scottie Montgomery is like a former college head coach. And Bubaventrone, I know Ersei likes Bubaventrone. He's interviewed. He's on the short list of guys that are going to get interviews in the next couple years.

Nope. None of them. a guy that wasn't even here in August. Actually, I'm wrong about that. He did come and watch training camp one day. So he's more prepared than... He's all set to go. So this, to me, ends, potentially,

with the Colts being the worst team in the NFL by season's end. They're going to have some stiff competition for it. The Texans are awful. The Panthers are an absolute nightmare. They went back to Baker Mayfield yesterday. They just fired two more assistance. They have an interim head coach that actually makes sense because he's been a former NFL head coach.

but that's neither here nor there. If the Colts do finish this season with, let's say, a top three pick, which seems more than realistic, they will be in range to draft a quarterback, whether it's C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, however, the draft happens to fall. Do you think Chris Ballard is the person drafting that quarterback? That's the question. I will say this about Chris Ballard. He has been fairly competent as a GM.

Now, there are huge misses that are indefensible this year, mainly on the offensiveable this year, mainly on the offensive line. He's going to be here tonight and he's going to answer some questions. And those are questions that he needs to answer and Jim Mersey needs to answer. But him being a part of this press conference tonight tells me he's going to be here through the end of the season. And then Jim Mercer is going to have to make a decision whether he wants Chris Ballard to pick the next head coach and the next quarterback. Because that's obviously going to be the pick in the top three. The reality is he swung and missed with his first head coaching hire, which everyone forgets about.

That was Josh McDaniels, who didn't even take the job. Frank Reich. They had contract extensions to 2026. Does he stick with Chris Ballard? That's the key because Chris Ballard has been fairly competent, has put together talent. You can argue if it's the right places on the roster, outside linebacker, you pay a left guard, 20 million, et cetera.

But how can you trust him to fix this situation after they'd been on this quarterback roulette wheel for five years? It's easy to see why. And to me, an interesting hint of this, too, is obviously I would say there's no way that Chris Ballard's suggestion was to hire Jeff Saturday. Not in a million years. There's no way that that would happen because the easy thing for Chris would be like, hey, let's get John Fox. If John Fox does it, you're autopilot the rest of the season. You can vet your coaches.

You can do that. This guy's going to go to the podium every week. You can talk to the media. He can lead a room. You don't even worry about it. He's been there. it'll just be like you won't even know who the from the outside you couldn't tell there wouldn't be anything different this now requires work now the question is if he can't influence who the coach is

now then why can he after the season that's my interesting question this is the third consecutive major decision made by this team move on from carson bentz matt ryan fire frank rite and hire just saturday which still sounds strange to sound that was not made by the general manager who was supposed to be making those decisions. So like you said, Mike, why is he going to make the next decision? Does he want to at this point? If this is the organization, I mean, I guess he, did he sign an extension and Frank did, right? Before the season. 2026, which is a long time. That's the, my takeaway from a lot of this is that for a long time, the Colts were held up as a model franchise in the NFL. And so much of that, I think, is Peyton Manning and the allure and

what they were over those couple decades. If Chris Ballard isn't the general manager of next year. And they do have a top three pick. Is this a good job? Don't you think GM candidates are going to be asking themselves that? How much of a say is the owner going to have? Am I even going to be able to make the decisions? Are you going to fire my coach that I bring in and hire one of the glory days guys? I mean, there's this weird thing in this city where they reach back to the glory days and they talk about it every chance they get and they bring those guys every chance they get back to the city. And they just want to recapture that. And I think that's led to a lot of failures and a lot of misses because they're not going to get back to that.

You're not going to get another Peyton Manning. Andrew walked away. They've been trying and running in circles ever since refusing to crater. We've talked about this, Robert. They haven't fallen apart, which is actually pretty admirable in the last couple of years considering all the turnover and the colossal event that was Andrew Luck's retirement. But they haven't cratered. And now that they do, it feels like it's a circus. So now they're in this position where, let's say Chris Bauer stays, what needs to change?

Because they did crater. The bottom did fall out based on how this team was constructed. So if he gets to stick around, and there have been examples recently, where sticking with the GM through multiple coaches has benefited teams in the long run. Jason Light survived when no one thought he was going to survive. Les Needs survived multiple head coaches. Howie Roseman famously was banished to a different side of the building. and now the Eagles are undefeated and the favorite in the NFC.

So there is precedent for how this has worked out in the past. But I think Howie is a really good example. Drastically changed the way that he did things. Les Snead drastically changed the way that he did things. If Ballard stays, what about the process needs to change to make sure this doesn't happen again? That's a really good question. And this is my take. Everything needs to be torn down.

He needs to absolutely change the way he thinks. it's one thing if you say you're going to be all about the lines, right? Well, then be all about the lines because they're the worst offensive line in the league right now. They allowed nine sacks yesterday. That's the most since Ballard's first year. That's why they went out and drafted a guy like Quentin Nelson. They're going to have to make some tough cuts. They're going to have to cut some starters.

They're going to have to totally revamp themselves around what I would imagine is a rookie quarterback. What happened the last time they had a rookie quarterback who was drafted really high? They didn't protect it. They learned that lesson. They're going to have to find guys that can. actually protect a rookie quarterback. And I think you're going to have to send a couple of messages to the locker room because one of the players told me last week that there's some frustration that Frank Reich wouldn't chew out his best players. The Colts best players have all screwed up this

season. We're talking Jonathan Taylor's fumbled. Quentin Nelson has regressed. Ryan Kelly has regressed. Braden Smith. Michael Pittman's had some drops late. I don't need to give you guys the examples, but they need to get a coach who's going to hold the best players accountable. And I think that's one of the things where Frank Reich lost the team late. That was the last thing I wanted to ask you. My initial reaction to this about Frank Reich's future is another team would be lucky to have Frank Reich as its head coach. I think that they did an admirable job over that three or four year stretch of fielding

borderline top 10 offenses with a rotating cast of quarterbacks. I think that Frank Reich has the makings of a good NFL head coach, but I didn't watch Frank Reich every day and I don't talk to people in the building and the locker room. Do you think that Frank Reich is a good NFL head coach who would benefit with another opportunity, if given one? That's a complex question because I think he struggled late in balancing the head coach job, which is a full-time, full thing with the play-calling job. I thought his play calls were really, really good early in his career. And obviously, this is all based on the quarterbacks.

And I've often talked to him off the record about, man, it'd be nice to see what you could do with a quarterback that's here for two years. Now, to his credit, he never made excuses. And I thought he called a pretty good game last week against the commanders with Sam Allenger, considering his limitations. But he tends to overthink things sometimes, and he puts his team in a really bad situation times. But to be honest, I think it's in between. The ceiling for him is in between really, really good coordinator and pretty good head coach. I'm not willing to go further, but no head coach, no head coach anywhere is going to make things work with six. different quarterbacks in five years. That's the reality.

And it gets really muddy and complicated when the head coach was the person who picked one of those quarterbacks. And I think ultimately, that's how we got to this point. So, Zekiefer, get some coffee. You're drinking some right now. I think you're going to need a lot more of it because I have a feeling it's going to be a long night for you, my friend. It is. I need a vacation. But check back with me in a couple months because it's going to be a long eight weeks. I cannot wait for rike, the six-part podcast series that we do five years from now. It's going to be called Saturday. Why this led to the downfall of the cold Saturday?

The last thing I wanted to ask you, what do you think, I know we can make fun of it and we think it's insane because it kind of is insane. If you're making an argument for why this happened, why Jeff Saturday was the choice, why is it? Like, why is Jeff Saturday? Couldn't get Peyton Manning? Oh, I bet he called Peyton. I bet he called Peyton. I promise you, he did. I can't answer that. I just can't even begin. I mean, Jeff Saturday is 20 and 16 as a high school coach with a playoff. So he's above 500.

Hey, hey, here's the answer. Here's the answer. He just listed that. That was just part of our conversation. I love it. He can fix the offensive line, right? Robert is literally falling up. I wish everyone could see Robert.

He almost fell to the chair. That's what we're reduced to. I mean, it was a good answer. It was an earnest answer, but it's all we got. I just choked on my stick. All I know is you guys better be listening to this press conference tonight. 730. Find a live stream because it's going to be...

I'm tuning in, baby. It's going to be something. It's must-see television. Zach Kiefer, always great to chat with you, my friend. We will do this again. Hopefully not that soon. I want you to have a little bit of a reprieve, but we'll get there. Stay away for me.

Thanks, guys. I'll talk soon. All right, it's time now to chat with Mike Sando here about the AFC wildcard race. Mike, we typically dig into some. specific games during the Monday hangover. But we thought halfway through the year and based on the games we were going to chat about anyway, that it might be useful to spend this time talking about the teams that are right now in the second tier of the AFC playoff picture.

So we're not going to talk about the Bills. We're not going to talk about the Ravens. We're not going to talk about the Titans or the Chiefs. Teams that are currently winning their division. But the teams in that next group that right now are kind of fighting for those wildcard spots, that would be the Bengals, the Chargers, the Patriots, the Jets, and the. dolphins. Those are the teams we wanted to dig into a little bit today. Yeah, let's do it. All right. So I want to hit a few different categories associated with these teams.

As we're looking at this group, this tier of teams, who would you bet right now is going to make the playoffs in the AFC? I'm going to go with the Miami Dolphins. I think they would be my top team because we have seen what they can do offensively. You have a little concern about to his ability to stay in there week after week, but I have less than I did actually earlier because I don't, I think the concussion thing and the way he took that hit, he's done a better job recently of getting down and sliding. And I think I'm not overly worried that that type of thing's going to happen to him again. Love the timing he's playing with, the accuracy on the shorter and intermediate stuff,

the system Mike McDaniel has for him, I think I trust that. If we're looking at every single one of these teams, I think it's kind of undeniable that the Dolphins offense with Tua is the best unit among the 10 we would discuss, offense and defense for all of these teams. Tua leads the NFL and EPA per dropback. Their offense passes the eye test. It passes a statistical test. They've managed to kind of overcome whatever concerns you might have about the state

and the talent along their offensive line. they're just rolling right now. And that's why I think I would agree. I think I would pick Miami just based on the strength of their offense. But I am a little bit worried. We discussed this a little bit on Sunday night with Nate about their defense and about what kind of shape it can be in by the end of the year. But if you're making these sorts of bets, a bet that a defense will figure it out for

four or five games is usually the smarter way to do it than trying to predict some sort of jump from another offense. Yes, and I would put Cincinnati as my next team, and I do waver a little bit because I don't feel, I feel like, well, Cincinnati there's somewhat of a blah on us. I don't feel like there's necessarily as fatal of a potential flaw. And so as you look right now at every team in the NFL and we stack them one to 32, I always do this in combined defense and special teams EPA per game. The dolphins right now are number 32. And look, one off game at this point, one game could really affect it. But that's not good. The Detroit Lions are number 31. Now, the chiefs are number 30. So if you're really good on offense, you're going to overcome that a little of the time. I don't think this is the chiefs, obviously. But sometimes it looks like it on Sunday in terms of the production. So that's why I give them a little bit of the edge. I guess I'm just more excited about their offense enough to offset the other concerns that I have.

What is the chatter you've heard about Tua from the people that you've talked to, about where he is, about how much he's responsible for this? Like, what's the general sentiment about him from the people that you're chatting with all the time? Yes, that he's definitely very accurate. I think we can all see that. That it still has to be proven over time that he can stay in there and play down to down week to week. But that based certainly on the productions that he's been in there and the moves that they've made, they seem to be going with him.

And I think you're just going to wonder if in the end his ability to really push the ball down the field is enough of a limiter for you to want something else. But I think right now it looks like they've got their guy. Wouldn't you agree? Yeah, I think what he's doing within that offense is incredibly impressive. And I think it's built around his strengths. They're not asking him to do the stuff he's not very good at. And his ability to manipulate the middle of the field with his eyes and deliver the ball on time and understand what's happening within the scheme and what defenses are trying to do to him. I think it's been really impressive.

I want to see what they have to do if they have to play a game left-handed. We haven't really seen that yet. He is left-handed. So that helps. I didn't really think about that. You walked right into that. I mean, yeah. I want to see them play a game right-handed.

Yeah. I want to see that. What does he do? What does that offense look like when he has to play right-handed a little bit? Over the course of a season, the adverse, he's missed time, but they haven't really had to work through kinks offensively in the same way that some of these other offenses

do over long stretches of time. I want to see what happens when they have to make some adjustments down the second half of the season, when they hit a roadblock, because I don't think they have so far. Here's the thing, though. My answer to that would be, it's looked okay when they've had to play from behind.

And so many of these games, it immediately becomes, apparent what we mean in the quarterback tears thing when you get into the peer past situations, it's like balls are getting intercepted. When some teams have had to get off of script when they're behind, it's a disaster. It's a fire drill. That's how they're built. They're built to play from behind.

They can do that. I'm talking about what you run into, the example I would use is like what happened with the Bengals last year in a couple of those playoff games where they have these hyper-specific game plans and it's like, we're going to take this one thing away. What else can you do? If a team has a good plan for how to take away Tyree kill, is Jalen Waddle just enough? Are those one-on-one matchups you get with Waddle enough to survive one of those really specified kind of hyper-designer game plans that we're going to see with them down the second half of the season in the playoffs? Those are the questions.

I think anytime I see a new offense that's kind of stormed onto the scene, that's the first question I have to ask is when they have to play a little bit differently than this and when we have to see them work through some adversity, what does it end up looking like? they absolutely could weather that storm just fine. It's just a very new offense, and we haven't seen like multiple different stages of who they are. And especially when you consider, so as you look, obviously who you play is a huge component of this. And I would say they played Newland out of the gates, and it was a little shaky. They won 20 to 7, but it wasn't, I don't even think all the scoring was on offense. And they have a punt or a Hail Mary or something at the end of the half, like a 40-yard weird play. They played Buffalo.

Again, won a low-scoring game, 21 to 19. and then they played the Jets. They ran like 20 plays in that game. Yeah, exactly. The Jets was obviously a different type of game. So you're right. I mean, in those types of games, I think for any team, you say,

what do you do against the good defenses and you usually don't do as well. I mean, there's just, when you play a good defense, I mean, look at Kansas City last night, all up and down the field, they had to go to overtime to get 20 points. So I think your ability to win some of those games, you've listened to Andy Reid after the game

on Sunday night he's like, hey, you're going to have some of these games where it just doesn't go right. And it just feels hard. Can you find ways to pull some of those out? And I think, you know, so far this season, when two has been in there, I think they've done that. So I have to play left-handed, right-handed, whatever. It's certainly not going to look good. They're not going to put up 35 points. But I don't necessarily think that's unique to them.

I think that's the way it is for almost any team on any given day. So you look at it. They played Baltimore in week two. They had that crazy late game stretch, multiple coverage bus where they managed to come back and win that game. They play Buffalo in Week 3, really weird game. Two, it only throws 18 passes. It does more than enough to win, but it's still a strange game.

Then he gets hurt the following week, comes back. They play a Pittsburgh team. Multiple dropped interceptions. They didn't look fantastic. They win 16 to 10 because Pittsburgh is a barely functional NFL offense at this stage. And then their last two games were Lions Bears, both of whom are probably bottom three or four NFL defenses right now, after all the trades that the Bears made in the way that they're playing. I love what the Miami offense looks like. I think the two is playing very, very well, but I still think that we need to see some more ebbs and flows from who they are against better competition over the course of the season to actually understand how far they can push this thing.

Absolutely. If you look at the games two has started, they have been below average on offense statistically against Pittsburgh, New England, Cincinnati, above against Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore. So that's probably like a lot of teams. I agree. They need to see it over the course of the season. But like, I'm not seeing fundamental things that I'm overly worried about. Other than that, I mean, look, look, on time. Some of these passes, you've got to rewind. Like, was that a no look past? Like, he's really into the, he's really into the, what's the word, the intricacies of the delivery of the ball and things in their offense? I just watched them and I'm like, man, they're just sort of a, I'm less worried about Tua than I am.

I am like, oh man, you can see why they've considered maybe moving on from Mike Kaseki or finding a different tight end. If they could get like an edge-shutting tight end or something like that, I mean, this offense would go over the top from what they have for some of the things they want to do. I feel like the only time I see it, and I feel like Tua is limming in it, limning in it is on some of these deep passes. He just can't get the ball down there. And they might be a 35-yard gain, but they should have been a 60-yard touchdown. And, you know, it's a contestative jump ball for Tyree Hill and he makes the grab. a little bit frustrating at times down the field, but just the manipulation of everything and running everything, shoot, it looks good. And you want them to get maybe a thing or two that isn't him.

That Bengals game, I wish he would have played the whole game. I wish we could have seen what he looked like over that entire game because he did not look great for the first stretch of it. And I think the Bengals were a really good test for exactly the reason that I'm talking about. The Bengals' ability to be like, all right, this is what you do well. Let me push you outside of that just a little bit. Let me run some funky designer coverages. Let me run two double teams where you have to go to a third option. Let me do some funky cover two looks where you don't know exactly what you're looking at. That's a really good test and he did not look great in that game. So I just want to see what he looks like as they move through more of those. Again, I think they can

probably come out on the other side fine because he's playing well. It's well constructed. They have an assload of talent. But these are just the things you want to see over the course of an NFL season because it's always going to have those peaks and valleys and how you move through those ultimately determines your ceiling. You know, in that game that he didn't play, they had one, two, three, he had four explosive pass gains in that play, just to him, they had eight as a team. I mean, there's teams that have three in the whole game. It's, you know, it's amazing to me because watching the dolphins for the last several years

and Tua was part of this. They only won games when they were way ahead in the defense and special teams component. Like I can go back and show you, they never won a game. They almost never won a game with their offense. Almost never when Tua was there before the season. Even in game one this week they didn't. For them to be doing this, rank in 32nd in defense special teams, is awesome. I mean, Tua gets credit.

Mike McDaniel gets credit. Obviously, Tyree Kiel and the talent gets credit. But that's why they're my top. team. I feel like, wow, that's impressive to do, even if it ends up being a liability for them in some ways in the end. You think Bengals are second for you? I did. I sort of had them in a bucket with the Chargers, and I maybe just lean towards the Bengals, but I'm not, because I think they're going to be better defensively than the Chargers. Yeah, I tend to agree with you there. Even without a Woozier, I still feel like they have

you know, decent amount of talent over there. I really like Louana Rumo. And the Bengals, the offense is so Jekyll and Hyde that sometimes it's hard to understand what you're getting in a given week. But when they're rolling, they still look really good. I was looking up some of the numbers. So Burrow, yesterday, watching that game against the Panthers, he had a 2.34 average time to throw.

And when they're getting rid of the ball quickly, they operate in a way that's very impressive. So 145 of Burroughs dropbacks this year have lasted two. seconds or less. That's the second most in the NFL. He has the second fastest time to throw in the league. On those throws, he's averaging 0.28 EPA, which is really, really good. Okay, that's, so the best quarterback in the league right now, that's, like, just under what Tua does on all of his dropbacks. So when they get the ball out, they're incredibly functional and they look really good. And this just isn't a dink and dunk thing. He actually has one of the highest average air yards per target on those quick throws.

It's like six yards or something like that. He's not chucking it down the field, but they're able to push it very quickly based on certain looks. When they get single high, he's going to push the ball. So there is an ambition and an aggressiveness, even when they're getting rid of the ball quickly. But when he has to hang on to it for any stretch of time, they start to disintegrate because the offensive line play still isn't great.

So figuring out which version of the offense you're going to get on a week-to-week basis is fairly hard. but if they catch you flush one of these weeks and they're getting rid of the ball quickly and Chase makes a couple big plays and they're playing the way they can defensively, I still think that their peak, their best game is pretty fucking dangerous. I totally agree. I would not want to catch them on the wrong week. I want them to just hang around and weather the season and then get their guys and get ready because even the last month, and we don't have this perception because they had a terrible game against the Browns that everybody watched. But week six to nine is a four-game stretch, Robert. They're averaging 30 points a game. They're three-in-one, and they're by far number one in the league in offensive EPA. And even on a per-game basis, they are, because the Chiefs haven't played as many games. They're above the Chiefs, the last four games.

And we saw it the other day. It's only Carolina. Obviously, there's big issues there, but they're not playing with Jamar Chase. And they found another way to have 211 yards from scrimmage for Joe Mixon. And so you're right. And then when you watch Burrow, he's just excellent. I mean, he's just accurate. He's got guys flying into his waist, and he delivers a strike to the perimeter that almost a very short list of quarterbacks are going to do.

And it's only a eight-yard gain, but it's a sack for other teams, or it's a negative play for other teams. You can just see those things that the top quarterback can give you. And so if they, it hasn't always been sexy for them, but it can be. And if they just hang around, I think, you know, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're the team out of this group that we feel the best about in the end. All right. Transitioning here, who do you feel the least confident about among this group of five teams? Again, Bengals, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, dolphins. Oh, I put Jets at the bottom.

Even though, you know, I feel great about where they are at, I feel like, you know, offensively, it's just, you're not sure what you're going to get week to week with Zach Wilson. You're afraid it's going to be bad. And so that's what the feeling is for them being last. Their floor offense, their ceiling offensively hasn't been very high. On a certain play, it can be. But over the course of a game hasn't been very high. And the floor can be like really, really low.

And when they announced that they were moving white ahead of flaco on the depth chart, to me that you do that just for the same reason the Colts did it a week before they got rid of Matt Ryan. To me, that's what you do when you've got some concerns about how it's going. And I had those concerns. I think a lot of people did after their last game, their previous game, against New England. And it was better this last week, but I think that's still in my mind of, like, shoot,

they can go off the rails at any time. His floor is frightening. You think about that game against the Patriots and what it looked like. I can understand being pretty terrified. of that. But Matt Jones's floor feels just as low this year. The way that he played yesterday, the Patriots had one of the worst offensive football games of the season yesterday,

and the only reason it didn't feel that way is because they played against a Colts team that is not functional on the offensive side of the ball. I'm looking at this right now. It's among qualified quarterbacks this year. There are 39, okay? Mack Jones ranks 37th in EPA per dropback among those 39 quarterbacks. The only two quarterbacks who have been worse

than Mac Jones this year are Mitchell Trubisky and PJ Walker. So if Mack Jones is going to be playing at that level, I have way less faith in the offensive infrastructure of the Patriots than I do with the Jets right now. That's a good point. I think the Jets skill position talent is as good as New England is. The way that Garrett Wilson is playing, Garrett Wilson be the best receiver on the Patriots, like no questions asked. I say that as somebody who likes Jacoby Myers, but Garrett Wilson is better than that.

The run game with the Jets and the construction of the run game, even as they cycle through offensive linemen, I think still looks pretty damn good. And I think that Michael Flour is doing an excellent job at the controls there. So if Mack Jones's floor is just as low as Zach Wilson's, I feel more confident about everything else around the quarterback with the Jets, and the Jets have been arguably the best defense in the league over the past month, among these teams, I feel worse about New England. Well, yeah, they're arguably the best, but if they're not, then it's the Patriots are right there too. I mean, I think. Yes. The Patriots defense has been very, very good. But I still think I feel better about the Jets offense, which is crazy to say, and the defenses are neck and neck.

So I still, over time, I feel better about what the Jets have on defense than I do about the Patriots. So, yeah, I do too. The Jets doing that to the Bills yesterday and the way that the Jets defense has played top to bottom, I just think the Jets have more stars on defense right now. And guys playing a super high level. You can be absolutely right. And I do have to make a confession. So I was part way through going through play-by-play on watching the Patriots today and Colts when the Frank Reich news came down.

So I did not watch the entirety of Patriots offense on that. And if I had watched the entirety of Patriots offense, maybe my confidence in New England would be I just pulled up on my screen Mac Jones and Zach Wilson this season. They both have played six games. Mac Jones higher completion rate. Zach Wilson, higher yards per attempt. They're both similar, touched in an interception. Passer rating is about the same 76 for each.

One of the interesting things is that Zach Wilson has a much higher EPA per pass play when there's no pressure. He's three times as good. So, you know, I think now, and they're both really bad when pressured. I guess I didn't realize Mac Jones was that bad. Madden pressured. I have the vision of when Zach Wilson is pressured, him trying to do way too much and just doing almost

dumber things with the ball that maybe they're the same EPA loss as what Mack Jones would do, but they feel worse. Well, it's a fascinating contrast because when Zach Wilson's getting pressured, he's trying to do way too much. Oh my gosh. And when Mac Jones is getting pressured, he's not trying to do anything. Anything, that's it. Yeah, so he just, maybe the way that Mac Jones succumbs to defeat is more assuring to me

than the way like sort of Mac Jones just sort of takes a knee and doesn't want to think. He literally did that on Sunday. He was pressured. He walked to his left and slid for a three-yard loss

on third down. Yeah. Zach Wilson is like in the biker bar and actually he bumps shoulders with the guy and turns around and just two hand shoves him in the chest. Whereas Mac Jones goes, hey, sir, I am so sorry to him. me buy you guys a round of drinks and I feel better about that.

Well, here's my deal is, Zach Wilson's got 25 buddies behind him that I feel better about than the dudes that are standing behind Mac Jones right now. So that's a good point. That's why I'm higher on the Jets. Maybe I'm just like catching the wave of good vibes from the Jets right now, but I think those are real. I think what they have on defense and just kind of the fact that it's building and they have a guy like sauce on the back end, the Patriots defense has played very, very well.

But I just really, really like all the other aspect. who the Jets are. I'm still terrified about where their ceiling is with Zach Wilson, but that's not what this conversation is about. Among these five teams, who do you feel the worst about? And I still think it's New England, and it might just be based purely on vibes at this point. And for me, I may have flipped it away because I haven't come off of the idea long established in the psyche that, you know, okay, New England, Belichette, you know, okay, there's a little bit more trust factor here, the Jets. We haven't been able to trust for a while. But, Maybe that is turning.

Maybe that is turning. Well, the important part of this is you would feel much better if Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots than you do right now. And I think that's the biggest difference is the confidence in their ability to kind of come through on the other side is driven by this certainty of who they are over the last 15 years. But when you remove that side on the offensive side of the ball, it's a little diceier. I think Raiders fans might also feel better about Josh McDaniels. If you were the Hodge yesterday, we joked yesterday, if the Packers and Raiders could undo the Devante Adams trade, do you think they would? If the Patriots and the Raiders and Josh McDaniels could undo him taking that job in Las Vegas,

do you think they would? Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, those are great questions. Those are good questions. Yeah, I think Devante Adams back to Queen Bay would be a no-brainer. All right.

Next one here. This is more, not about what you expect. from these teams, but again, just the check-in on how they're feeling. Who do you think is the happiest to be a part of this conversation? Week 9, post-week-9, AFC wildcard discussion. Oh, to me. Who do you think is the happiest to be here? It has to be the Jets.

I think it just feels great. Can you, I mean, for where they've been, I know Miami's been in some bad spots too, but Miami's kind of been a, shoot, they went to the playoffs when Adam Gates was there. You know, they've been a eight and nine. they're 9 and 18. They haven't... That's the problem, is that they were inherently at 8 and 19. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I feel like the Jets, I mean, shoot, the Jets last season, obviously were bad on offense. They were 32nd on combined defense special teams, too, 32nd last year. Yes. I mean, that's bad when Robert Sahl is your coach and a defensive coach. To be, like, number one, they might be number two now because of what the Colts did. I think they're number two because of the Colts helping the Patriots become number one. but they're a top two or three that's under the ball this season. I think coming into the year, I felt like I would have felt good about the Jets.

Hey, as long as we feel better about Zach Wilson, that's the main thing. Kind of like you, following the Bears, I want to feel better about Fields. Look, we don't feel a lot better about Zach Wilson, but we feel great about the defense component. We can see it's real, and we can see that that's a sustainable part. That raises your floor. So to me, they're going to be in almost every game now, unless the offense totally screws it up. So I think that's got to be a great feeling from where the Jets have been to where they

are now. I think the Jets is probably the right answer based on recent history. They won four games last year. They won two games the year before that. Mike, the Jets have had one winning season since 2010. Wow. One. Right? I don't, we talk about like, whoa, was me, Bears fandom. The Bears have been to the playoffs multiple times over the last like five years. 10 and six Ryan Fitzpatrick? here, right? Yes. So that was the 2015 season when they ultimately brought Fitzpatrick back and then it went totally off the rails in 2016.

Gless, Raffetz, about that season sometime, by the way. I still believe this is true. That fought memory of his time with the Jets. I think since 2016, the Jets are the only team to not have a Pro Bowl player on offense.

Oh, my God. Since that's 16, I think the last guy who was, who actually played in the offense might have been like Andre Roberts, but it was as a special teamer. It's unbelievable. Think of that.

I know this because I did a study on it. I was looked at it a couple years ago. I know they haven't had anyone since then the last year or so. That's amazing, isn't it? It is amazing. And I do think that's why they deserve to take this because of how bad it's been. I mean, you're looking at it. 5 and 11, 5 and 11, 4 and 12, 7 and 9, the one year under gays, 2 and 14, 4 and 13,

worst defense in the league last year. And the reason that I would be so excited as a Jets fan and so pleased with this is that this was the plan. This is what it was supposed to look like based on what the offseason looked like. You have all of these picks and all of these resources. And you go draft Garrett Wilson in the top 10. And you use a top five pick on sauce Gardner. And you have a third first round pick that you go get Jermaine Johnson with. Brees Hall has done some, was fantastic before he got hurt.

The guys they've signed in free agency have given them something. They're playing like you'd want to see a Robert Sala team play on defense. What this was supposed to be as they navigated this next stage of the Solid Joe Douglas partnership, it has been everything that you could have asked for outside of the quarterback, but that was always the last question. By the end of this season is everything around Zach Wilson, has that progressed to the point that you're at. excited about it. I think that determined success or failure for the 2022 Jets. And I think that every other

aspect of who they've been through the first half of the year, the answer on that is a resounding yes. Yeah, I think it is too, although I would have come into the season saying that I needed to see the Zach Wilson progress. Well, obviously in an ideal world, that would be great. Yeah, yeah, but I agree. The rest of that stuff coming through is in some ways the, the hard. part, right? I mean, everyone's in the same boat on quarterback. You're trying and you might get them or you might not. But those picks that become players, and even when they made some of the trades they made, right, the Jamel out of them's trade, there was no guarantee you're going to get good players. And the fact that they have gotten some guys that are real difference makers can help you turn it

quick, and that's what's happened on defense. I think the dolphins are probably in this conversation as well. Oh, yeah. Just because it was such an unknown. Think about how many hours were spent and how many words were spilled in the offseason wondering what the offense would look like. I mean, the central question being, is Mike McDaniel going to be good at this? We had no idea. Like, when these guys are offensive assistants for these play calling head coaches, there's truly no, there's no way to know what they're going to be as play callers because they've never gotten the opportunity before with having to build around their own personnel and is it just a Xerox copy paste situation. What Mike McDaniel has been is better than anyone could have hoped for.

And even I was bullish on it. It's been better than anyone could even hope for. And even if you get that part right, you're taking a double chance because usually you're hiring a play caller wondering if he can be a head coach. At least you like him as a play caller, Robert. You're like, hey, look, this guy's called plays before. Shoot, I'm happy about that. He might suck as a head coach, though. Now we're going, hey, let's hire a guy who, who, we're not sure if he's a good play caller or a head coach who doesn't seem from outside. I'm not saying he does or doesn't.

It doesn't have like what you think of as a presence, right? I mean, there's not something like Mike Vrable walks in and like, holy, this guy, you know, skins on the wall, right? I mean, what, from afar, what were you really going to bet on for sure Mike McDaniel being good at that was going to affect wins or losses as a head coach? We haven't talked about him at all in a bad way.

is there anything that you've seen him do that you were like oh this guy doesn't get it i can't think of anything and he's been through a situation with no owner right uh things beyond his control with tampering and all this stuff he's had to stand up there with the toa stuff of the concussion that was mishandled um there's his quarterback shoot he's played three quarterbacks this year his quarterback's been out for a couple of the games they played three quarterbacks his backup quarterback lasted one pass attempt. Didn't Bridgewater left one pass attempt in a game? I mean, that's a lot

of things. Oh, and then you're, by the way, you're managing some, you're managing Tyreek Hill. We didn't know what that would be like. Right? I mean, he could be frustrated if it doesn't go as well. He's been with Andy Reed and Mahomes. So I think all of those things of challenges like, what would you say Mike McDaniel

has failed at? Should I need to go edit my column? Maybe he's the coach of the year. He not even mentioned him. Yeah, he's certainly in the conversation. I don't know if by the way that we determine the winner, he's going to get there, but he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation. For constructing this offense the way that they have, for being arguably the most explosive offense in the entire NFL, for getting the most out of a quarterback that I think a lot of people had justifiable questions about. I'll never forget two things. One, the conversation I had with Mike McDaniel before the Super Bowl in 2019, and I've talked about this before, but we were talking about that staff in San Francisco.

their mindset as a group. And he said something that really did linger with me. He said, you know, we, none of us played in the NFL. I'm not an NFL player. Kyle wasn't an NFL player. Michael Fleur is not an NFL player. I have to prove my worth to those guys in the locker room every single day. I have to prove to them how I'm going to make their jobs easier.

If I come one day and I don't have anything for them, I can't operate that way. There's no laurels. He's got no laurels. Zero. Yeah. Zero. And that's how they work. And I think that you can see that in Miami.

And I remember that the video of him calling Tua from the plane and saying to him the same thing. He said, my job is to make you great. And that's exactly what they've done. And it's really cool to watch him succeed in the ways that he has. Because bringing that mindset, I completely understand why it would be advantageous, why it's work for them. And I think it's working like gangbusters there right now. Yeah.

Aren't they just so much more fun now? It's just going to be fun to watch the rest of the season. I really enjoy watching them. Yeah. All right, let's change gears here a little bit. So those are the teams that should be happy to be where they're at right now. How about on the other side of this? Among these five teams, if one of these head coaches gets a note from his assistant says,

all right, the owner wants to meet you at 3 o'clock. Who's feeling the worst about getting that note right now? I think it's chargers. I think it's a charger because, you know, that was sort of seen as. as the place, hey, you get Justin Herbert, and then there was some spending done on the defensive side, you know, Khalil Mack, right, J.C. Jackson. Some spending.

A fair amount of spending, you know. The GDP of like a fairly large country. Yeah, a lot of spending that that organization hasn't been known for doing. Okay. And then, you know, I think how, what did Mike McDaniel say? My job is, I've got to make you better, right? I've got to show this. Well, we're talking about Brandon Staley, right?

He's Mike McDaniel, right? He didn't have a 10-year playing career in the NFL. He didn't come in with, you know, having coordinated top 10 defenses for 10 years. So I think you need to, if I'm, if I'm him being called in, that owner might ask, okay, how are you affecting us on defense? What are we doing? How can you show where you've made a difference, right? How are we better than we would have been?

Because statistically, and I don't have it in front of me, statistically it feels like we're about where we were before, right? So that would be the conversation that could possibly be brought up there. And it would be interesting to see what the answer would be. If you were Brandon Staley, what would your answer be? So right now, as of today, they are 24th at EPA per play on defense, the Los Angeles Chargers. That is lower than it was before they played the Falcons. are 24th in the NFL, just behind the Kansas City Chiefs. You go look at spending on defense with the Kansas City Chiefs and with the Los Angeles

Chargers and what a defensive minded head coach, all those things. The Chargers were not supposed to be 24th in EPA per play on defense this season. So in now call it up, where were they in 2020? So I've got just their total defensive EPA they were for the season. They were 15th. and if we're going to look at per play, which I have to scroll a little bit, you'll probably get it before I do. They're 15th. 15.

So, Coach, do we rank higher or lower than that the year before you got here when we didn't spend that money? It's a worthwhile question. And they've had some issues, right? Joey Bosa gets hurt. J.C. Jackson wasn't playing well before he got hurt. So I don't know how much that injury is really affecting what they are right now. they built this team in such a way where they had no edge depth whatsoever. They, when the first 53 man roster came out, they had two edge rushers on the 53 man roster.

It was Joey Bosa and Kluamack. That was it. And then Bosa gets hurt, and now you got Kyle Van Neweil lining up there full time. You watch the way the linebackers play. Their run defense is just disgusting half the time. There have been 60-35-yard runs. this year in the NFL, 60. In the whole league?

In the whole league. Okay. The chargers have given up six of those. Okay. They would have given up seven yesterday if there hadn't been a phantom tripping penalty that had nothing to do with Quarter L. Patterson's 38-yard touchdown run that he had in that game. It's just a regular occurrence.

On the first drive, they gave up one to Tyler Eljir. Like, it just, it's unbelievable to watch. Well, and then in a 17-7 game with under five-minute, this left, I mean, it's a 60-yard touchdown or more for Atlanta if Marcus Mariotic can put the ball within five yards of his wide-open wide receiver behind the two DBs. So, you know, that doesn't show up in the stat, explosive plays, but that's a pass that needs to be completed. And, hey, they got the win.

They just need to win right now. They just need to get a win, move on to the next one, but there's definitely questions that haven't been, I don't like sense that they're getting the answers to that on defense. And I would love to sit in that meeting between the owner and Brandon Staley and maybe Tom Telesco there and just hear what they think is happening or what needs to happen. Yeah, I mean, I understand there have been some injuries. And when you lose a guy like Bosa, that's always going to hurt. But look at a team like the Titans and Tennessee and how well they play despite losing some guys.

You know, the Broncos defense has lost people, you know, for stretches this year. Oh, lost Vic Fangio. That was going to be a big deal. Yeah. Yeah, Justin Simmons didn't play for a huge chunk of time. Their second in EPA per play on defense. The charges, you watch them, and it doesn't feel like you're watching a scary, dominant defense.

And based on how that team was built and the resources they put into it, I totally agree. And that's before we even get to the conversation about what you're doing to maximize what is still an absurdly talented quarterback. Right. And we feel after two years that we don't feel great. about the fit or the scheme or what they're doing. Is that that true, right? I don't know why we would.

I think that's very true. We have questions of next year of whether we want to keep doing this on both sides of the ball, what we're doing. Is it working? Is it maximizing? We've got this window here with our excellent quarterback who's young and going to only get more expensive

in the future, right? He and Burrow are going to be eligible for new deals here soon. They've got some time, but you have to feel like we're going to be able to maximize this window because otherwise in three years, four years, he's going to have the $35 million cap number, and we're not signing Kaleel Mack or whoever. 35, their agents doing them a favor. Yeah, 55 of it's Russell Wilson.

Yeah, I totally agree. And watching that game back yesterday, you know, obviously, Keenan Allen's not playing. Obviously, Mike Williams isn't playing. Their left tackles hurt. A bunch of guys out. And I think you have to take that into account. But Justin Herbert is looking a little bit. the year just making tons of like several like eye popping throws yesterday that his pop pocket

navigation like that's a really really good player and you only get a guy like that at a discount for a certain number of years and if i'm ownership i can completely understand looking at what this was supposed to be and even taking the injuries into account just saying this is it like this was our like all in push was this year with this group and this these are the results i know their injuries are there, but at the same time, I still think you've got to try to separate yourself from what's actually on the field and are we getting the most out of that. I think so far this season, the answer is probably not. 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season. I know they've obviously had some injuries, but the last three games, 5.7, 5.8, 4.2. I'm sure the air yards weren't great

either. And that's always been an issue for them, not throwing the ball down the field. So, yep. That's why I would be most nervous if that call were made, even though that's a place that likes to be comfortable. And we'll see what they do. You know, it was out of their nature to go big in free agency and spend like that. Will they go out of their nature if they do consider a different head coach? And we all know the name that's out there. There are very few opportunities for head coaches that involve a quarterback of Justin Herbert's caliber. And if I'm Sean Payton, I might be sending a text or two about how.

how things are looking over there. And, yeah, not have to make the $15 million a year that he could come in. We'll see. I don't know if they're the team that's going to do that, but we'll see. All right. Last one here. Of these five teams, who do you think can take control of their division by the end of the year that can rise out of this wildcard discussion and actually wrangle a hold of the

AFC East, AFC West, whatever it might be? Well, I think the answer to that in the AFCs is just writing on the diagnosis of Josh Allen's elbow. I think if his elbow is going to hold him back or then shoot, you know, Miami might be, they are in that mix. Otherwise, I think it's Cincinnati. The nature of the AFC North, you know, we talked about Cincinnati, you know, they've got some pieces there. They've got the ability to look great. It could come together for them in a way that would allow that to happen. And shoot, we don't know what's going to happen with Baltimore, right?

they could be up and down the rest of the year. Cincinnati might win that division anyway. Yeah. I'd probably say the dolphins just based on the Josh Allen elbow possibility. Like if he's hurt, that I think that what the bills put on him and what he has to do within that offense, like even him at 70 percent, I'm worried what that ends up looking like. Yeah. And the last two games, I mean, I'll have to check PFF, but I think maybe seven turnover-worthy plays they had for him.

It almost looked, I was wondering, I was talking to someone, the coach about this last night, like, did it get so good that, like, you know, you start going off script a little or you start pushing it, it just seems like it's easy? And did they start to get a little careless? Because, man, a couple of those picks against Green Bay, even though they won the game, some of these plays just haven't looked the same. he's going to have to deal with an injury, which let's just say this, he is going to have to deal with an injury. Whether or not it's season ending or surgery or deal with it, he's dealing with it, right? He has an injury.

So it is going to be a factor, and I think that's a good point that maybe Miami with one victory over Buffalo already. So we'll see in week 15 when Miami goes to Buffalo if it's Josh Allen playing quarterback on probably a frosty day there in, Orchard Park or not. Yeah, it's still probably a Dolphins team taking advantage of an injured Josh Allen because I still think

the Bengals are, the inconsistency on offense just terrifies me. And we'll see what the Ravens look like over the next few games here. We're recording this at 5.30 Central on Monday. They'll kick off against the Saints here in a couple hours. I thought they found something a little bit offensively against the bucks last week. I'll be curious when they play teams that maybe want to play a little bit more man coverage and things like that if they can continue that on offense now without Rashid Bateman for the rest of the season.

I think that's a big question. But again, I think it's just coming back to the idea that I feel the best about the dolphins among this group just based on the way that their offense is playing right now. Yeah. Who's inconsistency on offense is going to be worse between the Bengals and Ravens, right? I think that's really what we're talking about. Oh, that's a great question. I, the floor of the Bengals offense is lower because it's based on past protection issues. Yeah.

That's how I would do it. I think the, you watch the Bengals, the Bengals offense is bad. The Bengals offense is borderline unwatchable. I know. It really, if, yeah. Don't you feel that sometimes about the Chargers too? Like, how does this happen with? The thing about the Chargers, though, is that their,

floor isn't that low because there are no sacks taken ever. Justin Herbert's ability to mitigate their floor is a huge part of what keeps them steady. But with the bangles, they can just go so, so, oh, it's gross to watch. Watching that game back again, I made a joke on Twitter today. Watching that game is like watching Sisyphus push the boulder up and down the hill. I mean, there was so many moments in that game. He, Gerald Everett drops a rifle shot up the seam for a 20-yard game, a pick that hits Josh Palmer in the hands and he drops it. Literally, there is a moment where they gain 20 yards down into the red zone. They fumble the ball away. The Falcons then fumble the ball to them and they have the ball back, but it's 20 yards further. It is an actual

representation of like a Sisyphesian myth where he's pushing the boulder up the hill and then they have to start over again. That is what it is like to watch them right now. And especially when he's starting to get right and you can start to feel that a little bit and there are four or five throws where it's like oh man like that there's a reason why like it's just really hard to get off the idea that this guy's going to be really really good and then you just have those three or four moments like i cannot believe this like i just can't believe this is the situation that we're in here i was watching that game with Atlanta going what would the falcons record be if they had Herbert to make those throws down the field that marriota just doesn't make with any accuracy it's just a striking difference I think what Arthur Smith would do to make that a reality, just horrible things. Like, horrible, horrible things. There's stuff out there for them. There's stuff out there for Atlanta with this scheme they've got going.

I enjoy watching that. But, man, watching sometimes Watson the Chargers a little bit tough. It is comfortable to me. What is nice to me to every once in a while, they talk to a coach or talk to a play caller, and the drooling that happens over Justin Herbert from those guys makes me feel a little bit better about how I see Justin Herbert. There was an offensive coach recently of another team that said to me, if I was building it, he would be the guy. Like, he would be the guy that I would build around his specific skill set, which is not shocking, right?

Considering what he looks like and how aesthetically pleasing his game is. If you could build a quarterback in a lab, it would probably look like Justin Herbert. When you dig down into some of the nuances, there's a reason that I have a blind spot for guys like Tua and love Justin Herbert. It's because his benefits are obvious. but at the same time, even with people who know the game and understand it very well, when they watch him play, it's like, yeah, I'll want that guy. So it makes me feel a little bit better about my own personal feelings. Absolutely.

I know a head of National Scouting for a team who, when Herbert was like, whatever, a sophomore or something, he's like, oh, and by the way, in a couple years, Justin Herbert should be number one overall. He ended up not being, but just you look at him and you have those feelings. All right. Mike Sando, that's all we got. Thank you very, very much for the time. and always get to chat with you. Thank you.

Guys, thank you to Mike. Thank you to Zach Kiefer for his time. Really enjoyed that conversation as well. We will be back on Wednesday with some mid-season awards. Chat with Lindsey Jones. We're going to celebrate being halfway through the year by doing out some awards, really, really excited to chat with Lindsay and get her back on here. Until then, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice,

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