The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - What can the surprise teams of 2024 do for an encore?

Episode Date: July 24, 2025

There's a temptation to believe that surprise teams from the previous season are on a clear upward trajectory. But we know that isn't always true. Just ask the 2022-23 Giants or 2021-22 Raiders. Four of last year's playoff teams significantly outperformed preseason expectations and made the playoffs: the Commanders, Chargers, Broncos and Vikings. Is the arrow really pointing up for those teams? Dave Helman and Derrik Klassen break it down on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)6:07 Washington Commanders21:19 Los Angeles Chargers35:41 Denver Broncos53:40 Minnesota VikingsHosts: Robert Mays and Derrik KlassenWith: Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I am Dave Hellman, and today we are seeking to answer one of the hottest debates of really every NFL off season. And that is whether the arrow is pointing up or down for last year's surprise playoff teams. Every season, somebody makes the postseason that you weren't quite expecting. And it falls to us to decide, is this the start of something special? Was it a fluke? Is it somewhere in between? It's one of my favorite offseason debates, and we're going to get into it with four surprise playoff teams from last year.

Me and Derek Classen got into it. Really fun show. As Training Camp begins, without further ado, let's get into it. All right, Derek, training camp rolls on. Robert is in the midst of his tour. I honestly, not even 100% sure where he is right now. I'm sure we'll be talking to him soon. But in the meantime, we're getting our feet wet, I guess.

You know, like teams aren't in pads. It's the first couple days for. most teams in the league. So not a lot to react to yet, or is there? Is there something on your feed that got you excited here over the last couple days? Not excited in a way that's like, wow, this is going to change how I think about the season, but excited in the sense of it's not what I expected to see. Tucker Kraft taking kick return reps for the Packers. I just, Matt Lafleur is one of the most creative coaches. I fear now that he's pushed himself a little bit too for. It's the perfect like Wednesday of training camp anecdote when you've got tight ends doing kick

return. I saw, you know, we're getting some word on what Travis Hunter's doing. So the news is flying as we dip into this. But still want to talk some big picture stuff here before things really get rolling. And I loved this category when we came up for it. I was really happy that I got to do this with you. because it's a right of passage in the NFL every year, at least one, maybe two, or in the case of today, as many as four teams make the playoffs out of nowhere. It's a little bit of a surprise or in some cases an outright shock. And then we, as the football viewing public, get to spend most of the next year debating whether it was a sign of things to come or a one-off. And it's one of my favorite arguments every summer is going back. and forth about whether it was fluky, whether it's the emergence of a new dynasty, which is what

the fans of those teams would prefer to have you believe. So we're going to get to the bottom of all of that. And like I said, some years, maybe it's one or two teams. We got a lot to choose from in 2025 because there were a lot of surprise stories for teams to be exact. We're going to go through all of them, two in the NFC, two in the AFC. That would be Washington, the L.A. Chargers, the dinner Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings. We're going to start with the team that made it the furthest out of all of those. The Washington commanders did in fact reach championship weekend last year. Jaden Daniels, one of the most exciting storylines of the 2024 season.

And I'll just throw it to you really generally, man. Can they live up to that measure of success? Do you think the arrows pointed up? Do you think it's going down? I think they're the most fascinating team because I think they're the easiest to, get excited about, obviously because when you have a quarterback who immediately plays at a pro bowl or maybe better level, then yeah, it's incredibly easy to get excited about it, especially the way that he plays, right?

Like instantly being the best athlete on the field, some of what he was doing, throwing down the field, and also generally just not making mistakes the way that you see from a rookie. Like a lot of the best rookie seasons, you'll still see them make some mistakes despite some of the highs, but that really wasn't the case with Daniels. It was a lot of giving you the high floor and giving you the high ceiling. So it's very easy to buy into them from that sense. But I also feel like they were the most convoluted answer because while I feel like the arrow might still be pointed up for 2025

when you look at the roster, like I still think they can be a good team in 2025, I think they're going to have a lot of questions to answer moving into 2026. And the reason I say that is, you mentioned this on the show that we did maybe a week ago about the time this comes out. This roster is incredibly old.

And they're not just old. They're all about to be out of the door. Like so on defense, Bobby Wagner, Jonathan Jones, Dietrich Wise, Von Miller, Clell and Farrell are all 30 years or older and they're all going to be free agents next year. Noah Igbenogany is not going to be 30, but he's also going to be a free agent next year. On offense, Debo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Austin Echler, Noah Brown, Andrew Wiley are all 30 plus and going to be free agents.

Running back Brian Robinson is going to be 27 and also a free agent. Like they just, so many of the guys who are starting for them outside of like one or two star players are old and probably about to be out of the door. So 2025, it might be fine, but 2026, I'm not sure if the arrow's pointing up anymore. I think that's a really interesting point for the purposes of this because it's an open-ended question. Like, is the arrow pointed up because you think they're going to be good this season? Is the arrow pointed up because they are, of all the teams we're going to talk about, they have probably the most promising thing from last season, which is a rookie quarterback playing like a star on a cheap contract.

You don't have to worry about his cap hit for a long, long, long time. So in that sense, it feels like the arrows pointed up just generally for Washington because, and we'll see how the season plays out, but I feel relatively confident saying you're going to be happy about building around Jaden Daniels for at least the next three, five, hopefully longer years. But yeah, that is a valid point. And it's why I'm a little bit down on this version of the Washington commanders. I mean, this is, this is the early bird special like senior citizen discount NFL team. When I was looking at that for a previous show we did, okay, Jaden is obvious. And to be fair, he is the most important. But scan around the rest of this roster for a building block

you're excited about who is also young. And I'll even, I'll let you. have Laramie Tunsell because he's only 30 offensive tackles can play for a while. But other than that, we're talking about Sam Cosmi, Mikey Sainer still, and I don't know, is there anybody else? I mean, Terry McLaren, he's turning 30, as we have already talked about. And it's worth pointing out, the commanders officially put him on the reserve did not report list on Wednesday. So that holdout could end at any time, but that's worth considering as well. So there's not a, ton to feel good about in the big, big picture other than the most important thing, which is Jaden.

So it's an interesting thing to sort of balance out. And even Cosmi is coming off of injury. And so we don't know how good he's going to be or when he's even going to be able to start to play next season. So they're just in a very weird spot because like to me, a lot of the other building blocks that you would want to look at are Josh Connerly at tackle, who I think was a really good prospect, but he's a rookie. So until we like truly see him play, it's there.

There's really no certainty there. And then I think last year, you know, they ended up drafting Drezan Newton at defensive tackle. And he showed some flashes. And I know that he wasn't fully healthy for a lot of last season. But I don't think he showed necessarily enough to where we can bank that he's going to be like a really, really good building block for them moving forward. And then like you said, a lot of the other best players on the roster, whether it's Laramie Tunsell or whether it's maybe a guy like Frankie Louvo or guys like that, like they're pretty much older. It's really just outside of Sam Cosmy, like you mentioned, it's kind of Mike Sainer still, who I do believe is awesome. Like, I think he's a really, really good player.

And I think he's so fun. And I'm glad this year, I will say, I think I still have some questions about how good the outside corners are going to be for this team. And then we can talk about that a little bit. But I think the fact that they added more bodies there and are now going to allow Sanger Still to play in the nickel again, which I think is, even though he was fine outside last year, I think he's at his best going to be a nickel for them. so I think that alone might help them out on defense a little bit. It's fun. And okay, let's drill down on this because let's let's just talk about 2025. Like you mentioned Jonathan Jones.

They traded for Marshawn Latimore. Probably didn't play as well as you would hope when you trade for a guy of that caliber. But he was coming off of injury. Maybe he can be a healthier, better version of himself for at least another season. So even if we both agree that the future looks like, little weird for the commanders. Do you think they can be a better team than what we saw last year? I don't know.

Like, here's the way I would say, and this is kind of a cop-out, you remember when the Bengals made their 2021 Super Bowl run? And then the year after that, they were like, they might be a better team in 2022, but they might not win as many games. And then that's exactly what happened. That's kind of how I feel about Washington, where I think there's a chance that they are a better team, the defense is slightly better. the offense is a little bit more consistent,

and I think maybe has more options, which to me, the offense being better is mostly about the run game being better outside of Jaden Daniels. Obviously, when he's involved, it's really good, but they're pure just hand the ball to the back. Run game was pretty bad last year. And so I think if they fixed that, they could be better.

But with the improvements at offensive line, I think that's possible. I just, I would be shocked if they win 12 games again. And I think a lot of that to me comes down to like, I think they can be a top five, six offense again. And I think maybe Daniels can improve. the offensive line can get better. I just don't see how this defense is that much better.

You know, they were kind of like a slightly below middle of the pack defense last year. I just kind of struggled to see them being much better than that this year. And I know they added some bodies in the secondary and that could be useful. But they lost a lot in the front. Like they lost Jonathan Allen. They lost Dante Fowler and they didn't, to me, replace them with players that are as good as those guys. And I think that that's especially true with the outside pass rush. So I just, I would be shocked if this defense is any better than like the 16th best in the league.

Dorrance Armstrong is a great example of like, like you talk about people getting promoted to the level of their own incompetence. And not to suggest he's incompetent, but like you, but you play to the level where you like, you outplay your station. Like if Dorrance Armstrong is your third or fourth the end and like a key piece of your special teams and he gets in there on third down, he can be a. a guy that has like eight, nine sacks. And on a good team, you're like, hey, man, don't sleep on Doran's Armstrong. He's really, really good. But then you look at the commanders this year and it's like, well, outside of 36 year old von Miller, who we're hoping for the best, I guess, if Dorrance Armstrong is like the

centerpiece of your edge rush, all of a sudden I'm a lot less excited. You know what I mean? I couldn't agree more. And there's a lot of pass rushers that are like that around the league. Like another one that has always fallen into that bucket to me is like Uchena Nuosu. like he is, if he's your third best pass rusher, your pass rush unit is awesome. If he's your best pass rusher, you're probably having to scheme up a lot of stuff. You're probably getting a lot of hustle sacks because of either defensive scheme or your coverage is really, really good.

And that's an okay way to live, but I don't think teams want to. And I think the difference between like Uchen and Uwosu now with Seattle and what I think we're getting with Doran's Armstrong and Washington, Seattle has like five other guys who are also quality guys that they can put next to Ucheninoosu and really generate some pass rush, especially like Leonard Williams at defensive tackle playing the way that he did. I just don't see that with Washington. Like it's Doran's Armstrong and then there's a cliff until you get to like, you know, 30-some-on-year-old Von Miller,

who I just don't think has that much juice left at this point. And then even the defensive tackles again, like unless Drazan Newton is really takes a leap this year in his second year, which is possible. I just, it's hard for me to imagine who is the other sack getter on this team. This is something I remember all of us covering pretty extensively in March when it happened, but parting ways with Jonathan Allen, I mean, that makes, that makes sense if you view him as a declining player and not worth the money that he's costing, but immediately replacing him with Javan Kinlaw on a,

a smaller deal, but like not a crazy smaller deal. Like they still made a pretty significant spend in Javan Kinlaw. That's like, okay, I get it. You're saving money, but is this an improvement? I mean, if Johnny Newton takes off, then maybe it's a moot point. But so many things the commanders did this year, other than the Tunsel trade, which I understand and I think it's a good idea. So many of the other things they did, I'm just like, well, this just feels like a different version of what you were already doing. Yeah, I think with the Kinlaw thing, they will try to tell you that he,

He's younger. He's a little bit cheaper. And, you know, Jonathan Allen really struggled with injuries last year. And when you're an older guy, maybe that's going to be a problem again moving forward. I don't know, man. I'd rather still pay up a couple more million bucks and get 12 games out of Jonathan Allen than I would, you know, paying Javon Kinlaw what they did in free agency. And so this is a team again where I just outside of Jaden Daniels being really, really special, which I think he clearly has shown the ability to do that. that it's just hard for me to see what are the other ceiling raising pieces on this team.

But I think that's why I feel okay if I'm a commander's fan because like I'm. Yeah, I'm just fine betting that he will take another step forward and play at a similar level to he did last year. What we're not going to do is overreact to training camp reps, but I saw everybody in DC was losing their minds on Wednesday morning because Jaden's first attempt of training camp was a dime to Debo Samuel for a touchdown, which, yeah, if he's doing stuff like that and if Debo Samuel's on the field, there is a world where this team is really good. Like if they have good injury luck and if Jaden's great and Debo, maybe not turns back the clock, but at least just doesn't fall off the cliff, I could see this team following up at success.

But the other point I wanted to make, Derek, is just that they got to the NFC title game, man. Like that doesn't leave a lot of room for improvement. You know, like if we're talking about whether the arrow is up, that means making it back to the final four or potentially going further. I would say, you know, if you made it back to that game and it was a closer game than what we saw against Philly, I guess that's an improvement. But like, for this to be a better season, officially speaking, I mean, there's just not a whole lot of margin for error.

And that's a big part of why I'm down on the commanders is just what are the odds that you follow that up with another. trip to the conference title game. That's a really good point. If we are taking is the arrow pointed up like very literally, they would have to win 13 plus games and at least like run the final four game down to the wire, which it's just hard to predict the team is going to do that because that's such a high bar to clear. And when I look at this Washington team, I struggle to imagine them doing it.

I think it's a lot more likely that they don't win as many close games as they did last year. they're about the same quality of team and they end up winning 9-10 games they get into the wild card and they have an okay playoff run and there's nothing wrong with that like they don't have to be the next dynasty for this to have been like a failure

they're not a failure if they don't win 13 plus games and go back to the conference championship like I think you know the Texans are obviously the biggest point that teams are going to look to for teams like this and like obviously last year was disappointing for Houston but they still won 10 games and they still won their division. And obviously it was a weak division. But

I think they're still in a fine spot for as disappointing as last year, Phil. I think we're going to get to a similar point with Washington where, again, 9-10 wins, they're a wildcard team. And we're going to feel like it was bad. But if you step back and be like, man, we have one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a rookie contract and we're still able to win 10 games. It's a pretty good spot for us to be in moving forward. If Jaden plays at the level required for that to happen and they get back to the playoffs, that's, that's an unmitigated success, which is, I think my landing spot on this is, I think my arrow for the 2025 season is probably pointing downward, but in the big landscape of things, I feel really good about Washington just because I

believe that Jaden Daniels is a guy you can build around for a long time. Yeah, the arrow is probably not pointing up compared to last year, but compared to the last couple of decades of Washington, football. It is way up. That's a really good point worth making too. Like let's let's not take the fun out of this just yet. Like the point is to win another Lombardi for this organization. But let's just enjoy that this is a franchise that we want to talk about in July and August for a change. All right. Up next, we're going to dive into two AFC teams. Before we do that, we're going to take a quick break. All right, Derek, I knew going in that we were aligned about the commanders because we've talked about them before. I have no idea how you feel about this next team. And that would be the

LA Chargers. Quick refresher if you forgot. A lot of people down on L.A. in the first year of Jim Harbaugh, which clearly was a mistake because just like he's done everywhere else, he got immediate results with the Chargers. They go 11 and 6th. They get the AFC's number 6 seed in last year's playoffs. Don't ask them how it went against the Texans in that wildcard game. But still a very nice season, considering the expectations going in. My question for you is can the chargers follow that up? Do you think the arrow is pointed up or down? I think the arrow is pointed up, but not as high as I wanted it to be.

And so I think the way I would frame it is like I think the arrow is pointing up on like a 10 degree curve, right? Like it's it's kind of going up, but these are very gradual gains. They might be a slightly better team. But I really thought this was a team that if they were ambitious, could have been a little bit better. And to me, that mostly hinges on the defense and the fact that I rallied for them to trade for Jalen Ramsey and they didn't. And that to me was like really, really frustrating because I think when I look at this defense, you know, Khalil Mack is still really good. I like some of the other young players like, you know, Derwin James is still good. But Deion Henley at linebacker, I think is really promising.

I think some of the young DBs like Cam Hart are kind of interesting. But it still felt to me like they lacked some firepower. And I think you saw that towards the end of last season where I think they're a well-coached unit, but I think they were a little bit limited in what they could do. Like, I think when you look at all the best defenses in the league right now, it's a lot of these two high pressures. It's a lot of simulated. They're able to get to man coverage when they really want to.

The chargers couldn't really do as much of that. You know, they were a little bit more vanilla. Almost all of their pressures were these cover three, three deep, three under, just kind of the stock standard way to run like fire zones. and I just, it felt like it was a very well-coached unit, but not necessarily a creative one or one that didn't have firepower. And to me, the fact that they didn't address that irritated me a little bit, but then I look at the offense and it's like, well, if two out of three of signing Mackay Beckton,

drafting Trey Harris, and drafting O'Mary and Hampton work out, then they're probably better on offense and this team as a playoff team again. It's funny to try to find the line between being patient, and being, I guess you could say complacent or basically not being aggressive enough. Because I do admire the way that Jim Harbaugh and Joe Ortiz didn't get out over their skis, right? Like you have an 11-win season, you get to the playoffs, you have a franchise quarterback. There's plenty of reason to be excited. And nobody would blame the Chargers if they splashed a bunch of cash just to say they did it

and try to turn this team into something better and bigger than it is. And they just didn't do that. Like, I mean, they made a couple of signings. They didn't do nothing. But this team does not look drastically, drastically different from what we saw last year. Like the biggest, if you're just doing the macro view of the chargers, the biggest thing is just that Joey Bose is not there anymore. And I'm not trying to sell you that that's this game changing loss at this point in Joey Bose's career. but they were just willing to wait.

And I'm so curious about, like I said, the line that you draw there because they're going to lead the league in Capspace for 2026. But how many years can you say that about a team and how much does it matter? And are they going to look back and be like, man, with a couple more additions, we really could have been something. Maybe if we trade for Jalen Ramsey or if we're willing to sign a couple more pricey veterans, I'm curious about how you walk that line. Yeah. Cap space is cool. I think good players are cooler. So that to me is like, again, I can respect why they wanted to keep the course, especially with, again, the defense was good last year.

And it was a lot of young players. So I understand why they didn't want to do much in the mix there. But really all they're changing about their defense was they let Puna Ford walk in favor of lesser and younger players. You're absolutely right. Puna. And going across town to the Rams too, like not even leaving L.A. hurts. Yeah.

You probably could have kept the same apartment. and he was all good. But all they did to replace him was signed Deshaunhan, who was like a fine rotational player, but not really someone who I think can step in and take the reps that Puna Ford was taking. And then they drafted Jamari Caldwell out of Oregon, who I think, you know, I enjoyed as a prospect,

but I just don't know if he's going to immediately give you the run defense that Puna Ford was giving. And then on the outside at corner, they signed Dante Jackson, who you hope can give you, like, solid veteran cornerback two play, kind of what they got from Christian Fulton earlier last season. and you just hope that he remains healthier than Fulton, but that again, is not a firepower move.

That's why I kept saying I wanted them to sign Ransy because I think he just would have fit so much of what they needed. I guess they're thinking is just that if we can bring back all the same players and it's a lot of young guys, that will allow Minter and the rest of the defensive coaching staff to iterate the scheme a little bit, and that will be the thing that can take us from the eighth best defense to the maybe fifth or fourth and really kick us up a notch.

But I just, it still doesn't feel like that's enough to me. I don't know. Well, here's my hypothesis, and I would love to get your thoughts on this, because this is my guess for Jim Harbaugh's solution to this problem. And it ties into his entire ethos as a head coach, like the way that Michigan played football, the way that Stanford played football. And it seems to me that Jim Harbaugh thinks, if we can run the damn football, a lot of this stuff is going to matter a hell of a hell of a lot of.

a lot less. Like we're going to be a more balanced offense. We're going to stay on the field. Our defense will play less snaps. And also, if we're doing our job right, they'll be playing with the lead in the second half of a lot of games. I mean, this is football 101 stuff, but it matches the way that Jim Harbaugh prefers to play football. And I just, I was looking back through this. And the Mackay Beckton signing combined with Omari and Hampton, I mean, if that's just not a flashing neon sign saying like, hey, we're going to try to be better at power football. I don't know what is because the Chargers had a bottom five rushing success rate in the league last year.

They got stuffed, Derek, on 20% of their attempts. One out of five is preposterous. They couldn't get past the line of scrimmage. Also a bottom five in the league number. So those two things specifically, if they hit, and I'm a little worried about the offensive line because the Bechtin thing is cool. But they're still projected to play two of the same three interior guys on this line. Like Zion Johnson might be playing center now.

Bradley Bozeman is still there. Those guys are responsible for a third of the sacks that Justin Herbert took and a third of the pressures that he got last year. So I don't buy that this can fix the offensive line in its entirety. But if it makes it better and more importantly, if it makes the running game better, maybe that just has a ripple effect on the entire rest of the team. And if it does work that way, I think it would because I think such an underrated thing about the way that we talk about football and why teams are good is just being able to be in the down and distances that you want. And so bringing up that stat where they just get stuffed all the time and you're in second in tens and second and 12s more than a lot of other teams in the NFL, it's hard to live that way.

And so if they can get into more second and sevens, second and sixes, life is going to be easier. But I'm kind of with you on the interior offensive line. Like I think they needed to make a swing like the Bechden swing, but he played well for one year in the best offensive line environment in football. And now he's going to go play in a Chargers interior offensive line that I think has a lot of questions because I think Zion Johnson has been really up and down as a guard for a lot of his career. And I think there's this idea that moving him to center is going to help a lot of things and have this cascading effect. but until I see it, I'm not going to believe it. And then even with Bechtin, like, again, I understand the gamble that they're trying to take. But until I see him succeed someone that's not in Philadelphia, I have a hard time, like, really fully believing it.

So, Amerihanpton is really the only part of this that I have very few quibbles about. Like, I think he's an awesome player and I think he's going to be really, really good. And actually, an underrated thing is I also think Naja Harris is better than any of the backs that they had last year. So got two guys who were better, but I just, the interior. is to me a lot of TBD. I'm glad you mentioned that. And I honestly, I thought you might make fun of me because Najee, he did not live up to the billing of being drafted where he was in Pittsburgh.

That certainly wasn't all on him. But I don't feel like that was a signing that moved the needle for a lot of people based on what he did in Pittsburgh. I was curious to learn, though, Najee Harris finished 10th in the league last year in yards after contact, which, again, if you don't love your own. offensive line, that's a useful stat. And that combined with Hampton, who's obviously a

bigger back, a guy that you expect to be physical, who also has some big play speed, it really feels like Jim Harbaugh is counting on his running game to fix a lot of the woes with his team. And I'm curious to see if it's that simple. I think

it can be. And especially too, because Najee Harris isn't explosive, but he's obviously, again, you bring up, you know, yards after contact. He's a good, like, grinder type of back, which I think a Greg Roman offense always needs. And Hampton can also do some of that. He's a bigger guy who, you know, 220 pounds, 225 pounds. But Hampton is also explosive.

Like he's a very good, like if he gets into the second level, he can really, you know, hit some home runs. And I think that was also a part of this offense, a element of this offense that was completely missing last year where outside of, hey, Justin Herbert just made the best that we've seen this week, this just wasn't an explosive offense in any way. And so if they can get one more explosive run a game, just one more 15 yard popped than they were getting compared to last year, I think that could also go a long way. So again, a lot of this comes down to how do you really feel about the interior offensive line? But if they are 10% better and then the backs are who we think that they are, I can see the vision for the offense not being good.

But they were like 25th in DVOA or something last year. And they can be like above average this year. I laughed when you said that the arrow was maybe like 10 degrees upward because in my notes, I just have, it feels like the arrows firmly just pointed in a straight line. Like it's not moving up. It's not moving down. This feels like a similar team. I mean, if the run game really is this high powered thing, then all bets are off.

And we haven't mentioned the past catchers probably because, again, it feels like a completely similar situation. I mean, Ladd McConkey's freaking. awesome. Mike Williams just announced his retirement like 12 hours into training camp. I guess we're going to get on the Quentin Johnston, Mary go around one more time. And that's, so that that's the other thing I would say. If the running game takes off, then this could be a substantially better team or if they hit on a couple of these weapons. I mean, if Trey Harris is a dog from day one, that's huge. Or even, you know, I'll throw in the tight end they drafted Orronday Gadsden. I'm not banking on a fifth round pick being good.

from day one. But if for some reason he is, if the calculus in your passing game changes, then I'm willing to feel different about this team. But looking at it on paper before I've seen a lot of these guys play, this feels essentially like the same team, which they made the playoffs. So that's not bad. But I just don't think they're in a better spot than they were last year. Neither do I. Like I would have wanted another piece here, especially one to be a little bit more explosive and part of that is not their fault. Like it wasn't a very good free agent class to go get a receiver like that. I mean, you know, Robert has made the joke before that maybe the best receiver on the

free agent market was Josh Palmer, who they let walk because they figured they could just go get a Josh Palmer. And so I think their hope is that Trey Harris can just be as good as Josh Palmer, which, you know, Palmer's a useful player, but that's not that high of a bar to clear for a guy that you drafted, you know, around 50th overall. So I think that that could happen. It's just I think they, I think what is almost. almost more important is they need one of, you know, can Darius Davis be a better, you know,

explosive player for you? They just drafted Keontre Lambert Smith. Can he give you a little bit more pop in the passing game? Like just somebody to unlock Herbert's arm down the field, I think would go a long way. We're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves. But I was curious because the Chargers are projected to lead the league in cap space next year. And we did this whole song and dance last year where like, oh, maybe they'll, maybe they'll go get T. Higgins and how much fun would that be? The projected receiver free agent class right now for 2026, I mean, the names worth being interested in are like George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Romeo Dobbs, which like good players, but are these signings that are in the Josh Palmer bin? Right. Like are they are they going to completely change your opinion of the

Chargers offense? I don't know. So I was looking at that and I was like, I don't know, Jim, Joe, it might be on you to go find these guys in the draft, man, because I'm not sure all of this free agent help that we daydream about is coming. Yeah, I don't think it is either. I honestly think, you know, to go back to the run game, I think it's more likely the passing game gets better by, again, virtue of being in more second and sixes than second in 11s. And like that, that's just kind of going to be it.

And that is realistic. I do think, for the record, I'm really excited to watch Amari and Hampton and this offense do their thing, because Jim Harbaugh does know a thing or two about running the ball. But for me, it's just, it's an arrow pointed firmly sideways. There was another surprise wildcard team in the AFC West. The Denver Broncos got into the field on the last day of the season. They beat the Chief's backups not to, not to like take credit away from them. But I think, I feel like that's useful context to remember.

I think we were talking about that a week or so ago where the Bengals, dolphins and Broncos were all hope, you know, watching. each other's scores there on the last day and the Broncos just housed the chief's backups to get into the playoffs. Just saying, you know, making the playoffs doesn't necessarily mean that you, you got in there comfortably, I guess we'll say. But a playoff appearance is a playoff appearance nonetheless. And I'll say this, Derek, this is the team that I changed my opinion about the most drastically while I was researching for this show. I came away. from looking over the Broncos situation

with a wildly different take than I had going in. So I'm curious what your thoughts are before I talk about mine. I think they're also a really difficult one. So I think the defense can be really, really good. I think there's a good chance that if I were to try to predict

the top five defenses right now, I would probably put the Denver Broncos. But I look at the offense and I actually kind of think there's a better chance that they're equal or worse than they to what they were a year ago. And I know they've added Evan Ingram, they drafted a third round receiver,

you draft RJ Harvey, who you hope gives you a little bit more pop out of the backfield. But I just, their offensive line was really, really healthy last year, and I think that that went a long way for them. And then I also just, when I watch, even though I think Sean Payton is a really good coach

and a really good play caller and all that stuff, when I watch what the offense has to be with Bo Nix, where it's a lot of RPO, it's a lot of sprinting him out, it's a lot of quick game, it's a lot of like accommodating to him. I think unless he takes another step, I'm a little bit worried they're going to run out of road when it matters.

So this was a team that I think I really want to buy in on because of how the good the defense can be, but I think I'm like slightly less excited about the offense than I want to be. So I went into this with a similar opinion, right? And like just full transparency. Like I didn't love Bo Nix as a college prospect. And you look at the talent on that offense. And I think it's easy to be kind of down on it.

I don't think that's a hot take. I think a lot of people probably feel that way. But looking into it, I like where the Broncos are at a lot, man. And I'm not trying to pick them to be a Super Bowl team. But there is a lot. lot more here to like than I would have initially guessed. And yeah, let's start in the obvious place because assuming good health, the Broncos added so much firepower to a defense that was arguably already the best in the NFL. I mean, they led the league in sacks, third in scoring defense,

phenomenal rushing defense. And then they go out and they add one of my favorite players in football, Dre Greenlaw, who's just in the dictionary next to the term tone setter at linebacker. Like, he's going to be in the middle of what was already a nasty defense, just being an asshole, basically. Like, he hits like a freight train. He's got some attitude to him. I just, that is one of my favorite marriages of player with unit in the entire league. And if that wasn't good enough, they took to, uh, Talaunaou Funga out of San Francisco as well,

who, you know, it's. been up and down for him. There was an injury after the all pro selection, but I would say at the very least, he's got a nose for the football. Like, he's got a penchant for being in the right place at the right time, which is a valuable thing when you already have a talented secondary. And oh, by the way, the first round pick plays corner as well. So that's just a lot of stuff to add to a unit that was already really, really good. Yeah, if I were just looking at units, again, like the defensive side of the ball is just, I think what makes the Greenlaw, and who Fonga signings to me really exciting.

And you mentioned this obviously with Greenlaw. It's not just that they are good players who are upgrades. It's that for as good as I thought this Denver defense was last year, they weren't that violent. You know, like Patrick Sartan, who's obviously defensive player of the year, so he was incredible and gave a lot of help to the rest of the secondary for being that good.

And then I think the front played really well and was coached really well in terms of some of their pressures. But they just, as a team didn't, have that much violence to them. And I think when you bring in guys like Drey Greenlaw and Tala O Hufanga, who are just car crash dummy type of players who, um, you know, when they were both in San Francisco, we thought that they were the most violent defense in football with like Domeco Ryan's calling the plays a couple of years ago. So I think bringing in that type of attitude and then hopefully shoring up the nickel spot with a guy like Judai Barron who, um, not to the same degree,

but I do think is a guy who's very willing to put, you know, get his nose in there and get dirty and play that way. So I'm pretty excited about them playing in a way that they didn't before. Because obviously when you have the pressure, you have a guy like Patrick Chattain at Corner, I think that goes a long way. But I think really that, you know, piece de resistance, the cherry on top is just kicking ass. And I think now they can kick some ass. Attitude. Violence. Yeah. I mean, like I just, I think Dre Greenlaw personifies that. And we talk about it all the time. Defense is a little volatile, maybe it's harder to predict unit or year to year success on defense. But assuming relative good health, this is a group that you can routinely count on to hold the

opposition below 24 points. And that, I mean, that right there is such a great place to start if you're trying to sell me on a team. And then the other thing is, okay, the offense on paper does not get you super excited. But I just think there's a baseline of functionality there. And I'll start with the offensive line. You're right. They were healthy and you can't count on that. But assuming it doesn't fall apart, assuming it's something similar, what a great,

what a, again, what a great starting point for a team with a young quarterback. Derek, do you realize Bo Nix dropped back to pass six? And he was pressured 83 times. Yes. Yes. It was like him. I don't remember. I looked up something similar to that,

but it's like him and Baker Mayfield are kind of in their own tier of like being able to kind of hold on to the ball. Because obviously like Tua doesn't get pressured a lot either. But also the ball comes out of Tua's hand in like 2.1 seconds. So he's kind of not not completely the same. And I mean there is there's a quick game element to the Broncos offense. but there's also just plenty of times where Bo Nix has as much time as he wants. Exactly. And again, I think that's where it gets complicated because I do think some of that is

Sean Payton. And also some of it is the way that Bo Nix plays. He's like a decent quick game passer. They run a lot of RPO's, which get charted as passes obviously and then balls out immediately so it can't really get pressured on those in a lot of cases. They sprints him out a lot, which I think is helpful. They also, even though the run game was bad, they committed to it in such a way that they were able to get really good, like under-center play action, like seven-and-eight-man protection looks. So I think that helped the past protection unit a lot.

So all of those parts of it, I expect to stay. It's just I would be shocked if the unit is as healthy as they were last year. And that's not even like, oh, I think these players are injury prone. It's just like you don't get that lucky two years in a row a lot of the time.

I'll even meet you halfway there, but don't you think between Sean Payton's prowess as a play caller and an offense, designer and Bo Nix's own natural ability, I would think you can probably mitigate that. Like, I think, and, and to be clear, when Bo Nix was pressured, it didn't all, it didn't look good. And like, I do think that was a key element of his success was just that he had time to throw. And I do just want to say this because it's too fun to leave unsaid. Bo Nix was pressured

less than five different guys who only started like nine or ten games. Like Bo Nix. Bo Nix was pressured less than Mason Rudolph who only started eight games for the Titans. So that is a nice ace up your sleeve. But if the Broncos were to lose guys and if they were to have to shuffle

were to need to shuffle the offensive line, like there's boots, there's quick games, there's misdirection. and Bo Nix has the athleticism to do all of that stuff. So I don't want him to have to live in that world, but I also don't think he's the type of quarterback where if the offensive line is compromised for a few weeks, it just completely renders him useless.

Like I think Sean Payton could coach him out of that. I think I agree with that. I think to me it's just like I don't expect this unit to bottom out to be clear. Like I don't expect them to randomly be the 24th best offense in the league last year because of some of this stuff that might regress. I think to me it's more about, so they were from week, to be fair to Bo Nix,

from week seven and on, so I'm cutting out the first like month and a half of the season where he just was not very good. From week seven and on, the Denver Broncos were 11th in total EPA as an offense. Do you think it's more or less likely

that they're like, do you think they're going to be better than that or worse than that? I would guess worse. That's kind of where I fall back to. Like I think it's just more likely. And again, I don't expect it to be 24.

but I think there's just a better shot that they're the 14th or 15th best offense as opposed to the seventh. I will counter with this. What if? And it does feel like a what if. Like I don't feel great about this, but very similar to the Chargers, what if the Broncos can run the ball worth a damn this year? Because I do, you know, we talk so much about the Broncos O line.

And it's kind of mystifying, right? Because they were healthy. Most people consider them. a top three unit, maybe even second best behind the Eagles. Ben Powers and Quinn Miners are talked about as the best guard duo. They didn't run the ball worth a damn last year. Like, they weren't terrible, but considering this is one of the best O lines in the league, it also just wasn't that great. And I even, I went back and watched some games yesterday while I was getting ready for this. Sure, you can upgrade the backs from Giovante Williams. And, and maybe.

R.J. Harvey is that guy. He's a very exciting player. But I'm going back and looking at it. And for the most part, it's not as if the O line is kicking ass and Javante Williams wasn't getting anything done. Like Javante Williams, he's coming off of injury a couple years ago. Maybe he doesn't have as much juice as you would prefer. But in most of the stuff I watched, he was getting what was blocked for him. So I wonder if it's like, yes, R.J. Harvey could help. But maybe it's also. on the Broncos O line as good as they are to take it up another notch or for Sean Payton and Zach Streif to scheme it better

this time around. And that's kind of where it comes back to like, I think the way that Sean Payton runs his offense, it's a little bit easier for him to not hide the offensive line, but make them better than they are in the passing game with again, some of the RPO's, some of the quick game, the sprint outs, the play action, all that stuff. I think with the way that he wants to operate his run game where it is a little bit more downhill, They want to use moving pieces.

And they want to really use like every run concept under the sun. Like that's kind of always been a thing with Sean Payton is that he wants to run a little bit of everything. You just kind of have to be talented on the offensive line to do that. And I just don't think outside of kind of Quinn Miners and maybe Garrett Bowles, they really have that caliber of firepower on the offensive line. And then you mentioned the backs. I know a lot of people really like RJ Harvey, especially like fantasy people love him.

The combination of him and J.K. Dobbins doesn't really excite me. Because to me, like at this stage of J.K. Dobbins' his career just doesn't have the juice that I think he had early on. And obviously that's unfortunate, right? A lot of that was injuries. And then RJ Harvey, I get that he's really explosive. And Peyton has done really well with guys who would like that in his offenses. I struggled with Harvey a little bit coming out of college because I struggle with running backs who to me look a little bit blind at times and want to bounce when they shouldn't.

And RJ Harvey really runs like that. And maybe that's a welcome change compared to Jvante Williams. who was just running, you know, straight in, and O'Drick Estimate, who were just running straight into the back of guards all of last season. But I just, I don't know if it's as immediate an upgrade as a lot of people seem to think. No, I think that's fair. And the stat that I found is, and I don't think it's a coincidence, R.J. Harvey had 54 explosive runs at UCF last year. And if I had to guess, Sean Payton is probably looking for a back that can make guys miss and get more than what's blocked for him. Like, you know, there, there are definitely runs on the Broncos season where you go look and, and Giovante Williams is shoestring tackled after seven or eight yards on a play where,

you know, that could have been much bigger if he just makes that one last guy miss. Maybe R.J. Harvey is that guy. But the obvious rebuttal to that is like, so what? Everybody has 54 explosive runs at UCF. Like explosive runs in college football don't really do a whole lot for me. So I get the vision, but I'm, I'm. with you, I would need to see it. Like, I'm with you like J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey. It doesn't get my juices going as much as like Omari and Hampton does for the Chargers. Yeah, that's a great way to put it.

And so to try to put a bow on the way I feel about this team, I think the defense is going to be better. I would be shocked if the offense is better than it was, unless Bo Nix just takes like a massive, massive leap as a player. So they're almost like for very different reasons in the same bucket that I would put the Chargers where it's like, they'll probably win like nine, ten games again, but I think it'll look different this time around for the Broncos. Here's my thing with the Broncos. And I said,

I feel better about them than I thought. I'm just in love with the infrastructure here. And like I said, like I'm not sold on Bo Nix ever being like a true blue chip quarterback, at least not yet. But I am sold that Bo Nix with Sean Payton, behind a great offensive line on a team that is regularly going to hold its opposition to 20 points, you could be cooking with gas here, especially when you remember, and I mean, we don't have to do

the five-year picture, but the Broncos are doing all of this while they get out from underneath the Russ Wilson debacle. And two, three years from now when they've got money to burn and they're, you know, if they've drafted well in that time span, you could turn this team into an even sort of situation where it's like, do we, yeah, do we have Patrick Mahomes? No, but our team kicks ass and Bo Nix is more than good enough to get us where we're trying to go. Like, I could very easily see the Broncos following that blueprint here over the next few years. I mean, that's definitely a good point. I do, like, that's why I kind of hate, you know, I'm not fading them, but I wish I was more enthusiastic because I love Sean Payton. It's just, again, yeah,

looking at some of the other stuff, it was hard for me to get where I wanted to. Having said all of that, I, I, I, I, I, I feel. for 2025, I feel similar about the Broncos as I do about the Chargers where I'm like, is the ceiling drastically higher? Not this year probably. But that defense, which is crazy because it's a quarterback league. But if I think, am I crazy for saying this, Derek? I think if I could choose between having the Broncos defense or Justin Herbert with that

supporting cast, like, I think I'll take the defense. Like I think I'll, I will take a unit. that over having that sick of a quarterback. And I love Justin Herbert. I feel silly for saying this, but I think I believe it. I don't think that's that crazy. Because like, I think if it was, if you were taking Justin Herbert in isolation, I would much rather have Justin Herbert. But if you're doing Justin Herbert with the other 10 players that he currently has around him, it's like, the ceiling for that offense is like, I don't know, they grind it out to be the 14th best offense in the league. Whereas this Broncos defense, like, if we look up,

December 10th and they're the best defense in the league, are you going to be surprised? I don't think anyone would be. I'd go as far as to say, I kind of expect it. Yeah. And that's Justin Herbert in a vacuum, I'll take him 10 times out of 10. But Justin Herbert in this Chargers offense,

which looks a lot like the ones we've already seen, I'd rather ride with the Broncos defense, which like I said, I feel silly for doubting a quarterback that talented, but that's how I feel about this unit at the end of the day. And you know what? last thing I'll say, we saw Justin Herbert with that kind of supporting cast get absolutely hammered in the playoffs against the defense that we expect to be of this caliber. So there you go.

Just just saying there's there is more to the quarterback position. I'm as guilty as anybody for forgetting that, but there is more to the game than just the quarterback position. And I think, I think the Broncos could be a poster boy for that. All right, we got one more team to get to. Before that, we're going to take one last break. All right, Derek. We've talked about. about this team before. I called them the most interesting team in the NFL right now the other day. And that makes it very hard to determine where they stand. That would be the Minnesota Vikings. They went 14 and 3 last year. They were the NFC's number 5 seed. They were one game away from having home field advantage in the playoffs. But they swapped out their quarterback. They're starting or presumed

to start a guy who has never played meaningful NFL snaps on an otherwise loaded roster. I really don't know what to do with this. How do you feel about the Minnesota Vikings? I think it's really, really tempting to say the arrow is pointing up, right? You have maybe the best, like, you have at least one of the three best one-two receiver combos in the league with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. T.J. Hawkinson is a solid tight end. Aaron Jones is still a good running back.

The interior is way better than it was last year. So I think if you're making the case that the unit or the arrow is pointed up for this unit, it's that right. You're going from one of the worst interiors last year to, you know, Jonathan Jackson, who you drafted in the first round, who should be some sort of an upgrade over Blake Brendel, and then Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, who were part of a quietly still really good Colts offensive line, despite how bad the rest of the things were going in Indianapolis. So I think that is the reason you would say the arrow is pointing up. And they also added some pieces on the defensive line, you know, like Jonathan Allen, who we mentioned earlier when we were talking about

Washington, Javon Hargrave, which I think their defense, they kind of needed some more beef. So all of that, it's easy to say the arrows pointed up. But I look at the quarterback situation and I look at the secondary. And I just, I have a lot more questions about like what the floor is for this team than I think I wanted to coming in. What is it about the secondary specifically? I assume it's the cornerback depth. And the safeties.

I just like Harrison Smith, I think, would. was fine last year. I just think that when you're a safety of his age, like the cliff is coming very soon. And it could be this year. I don't think that would be that surprised. You know, he's been in, I think this is year 13 for him. So I think that's a consideration. And then Cam Bynum was awesome in this defense last year.

I mean, he got paid accordingly in free agency. And they had to let him walk. And, you know, it's either going to be guys like Josh Mattelis or Theo Jackson who are filling in for him. And they might be nice, but I think I would be surprised if they're as good as Cam Bynum. Please don't hate on my king, Josh Mattelis. I love Josh Mattelis. He's a fun. If anybody that's in a different spot on the field every single snap, I just, I am an unabashed

fan of. And maybe it's, I'm probably giving him too much credit, but I just love watching that guy play. Well, so that's the thing. He's like a fun curiosity, right? But if he has to potentially be more of like a standard starting safety, I have some questions about whether that's going to work. And then to me, I still look at the outside cornerback. room, whether it's, you know, Isaiah Rogers is fine, but if you're shooting for fine as your

best corner, I think that's a little bit tricky. They signed Jeff Okuda. They're hoping Mackay Blackman comes back from, from ACL injuries. Like, it's just outside of Byron Murphy, I don't really love the corner room. So, you know, I talked about this a little bit on a different show, but you know how with the Dolphins offense, it's felt like over the past three years, they've, they keep leaning in on speed and smaller guys and playmaking. And they've gotten to the point where it's like, oh, now they just get punched in the mouth all the time. I feel a little bit that way with the Vikings defense where it's like, oh, they've leaned so far into smoking mirrors and making our front really good that they've kind of ignored

that they just don't have any guys who can cover anymore. Yeah, at the end of the day, Brian Flores' scheme is so much fun. I think anybody who likes football enjoys seeing what he's going to dial up on a week-to-week basis, but it's still nice to just have a boring old corner that you can count on to handle a guy in man coverage and not do anything goofy. You mentioned this. We talked about it with Robert a little while ago. A lot of veteran cornerbacks still available.

Is this a team that maybe goes after? I mean, maybe you just reunite with Stefan Gilmore a couple weeks into training camp. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happened. I would genuinely feel a lot better about this defense if they did that. Because Gilmore, again, he wasn't, you know, a sexy player for them. But if they're going to do so much letting the corners play off,

and really throwing a lot of blitzes and simulated pressures that allow the cornerbacks to play with their eyes more than their feet and really running with guys. I think Gilmore was pretty good at that last year. So if they can do that or maybe like Rassul Douglas if they wanted to go that route, I would probably feel better. But again, they're still not that much high ceiling secondary play

outside of a guy like Byron Murphy. Very fittingly, you took the sicko angle first, but I'm not going to let you off the hook because this is like we're not being too simplistic by trying to decipher the quarterback situation. I mean, it's all there for the Vikings to be a good team. Even if you got some questions about their defense or whatever. Really, that's the only thing I could think of. I don't have a single question about their offense other than J.J. McCarthy,

which it sounds insane to think that a team starting a 22-year-old quarterback could do anything meaningful, but we just saw the Vikings get a 14 win season out of Sam Darnold who had never done anything other than have a couple three game flashes at times. Like that was the extent of his success in the league. So it is not crazy to think that this team and this staff of all teams and staffs could get something out of this guy right away. I think it's possible. I just, I have so many. reservations about it, right? And some of it aren't necessarily McCarthy's fault. Obviously, he suffered some of the knee injury stuff, so he's going to be coming back from that. And I think

that through a wrench in his timeline for a player that I think we all knew as a prospect was going to take time, they didn't even really want to play him last year. So the fact that he didn't even really get that onboarding year in terms of getting practice reps and really getting to play, I think it's going to hurt him a lot. I will say he does have, you can see some of the similarities in his game that you could paste onto what Sam Darnold did last year, right? Like he, McCarthy is a guy who I think will stand in the pocket, stare down the barrel of the gun and make the throw. I think he's pretty good at that.

He throws with velocity. I don't think he has overall the same arm talent as Sam Darnold, but he can at least throw with velocity, almost in the way that like Baker Mayfield can't always put touch on the ball, but he can throw it 100 miles an hour. J.G. McCarthy kind of has some of that to him, and so I think that could fit in this offense. And then he's a decent athlete. You know, he's not, he's not going to be running around like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but he can do enough that he's going to be able to make two or three creative plays a game.

I just still look at him and I look at what Sam Darnold was. He's a little bit less of an athlete than Darnold to me. I think he's arm, again, is good, but a little bit worse than Sam Darnold's. And I also think Sam Darnold just had more size and ability to like stand tall in the pocket. And JJ's not small, but he's a little bit on the skinnier side. and I worry that that's going to hurt him a little bit standing in the pocket. So I just, between the wonky timeline, him being physically a lesser version of what Darnold was, it's hard for me to get like that excited for a year one.

This to me feels more like a player you want to be good by the end of his rookie deal. It's funny because I didn't, again, I didn't really care for JJ as a prospect either. And I said the same thing about Bo Nix. I guess I wasn't giving Sean Payton enough credit for everything that he's done, whereas I'm very quick to give Kevin O'Connell credit for the things that he's done in a short amount of time. I mean, Kirk Cousins played really good football for him. We just saw the Sam Darnold situation. And even with all of my reservations about JJ, this situation just gives me confidence.

like I'm almost willing to throw all of my priors out the window and be like if you're throwing to these guys with this group of players in front of you and Kevin O'Connell's there like I'm not saying they're going to run the league from day one but I just I just kind of trust that it's going to work out in some form or fashion and he he doesn't even have to be that good right like if he's if he is quarterback 22 in the NFL it means they will be the seventh best offense in the elite. You know, like the quarterback doesn't have to be that good for the rest of the offense to work and do the thing that it needs to do. Isn't it easy to imagine JJ having a bow knicks-ish year where statistically he plays very well and the Vikings have a good record

and then we spend nine months arguing about how good he actually is and Vikings fans hate us for not giving him enough credit. Like that's very easy for me to imagine. And I think that's going to get even more volatile because at least with Denver, I think a lot of like like Bo Nicks supporters can look at the depth chart and be like, well, you know, Cortland Sutton's good, but it's not like he was doing this with any sort of superstar cast. But you look at the Vikings and it's like, well, you have the best receiver in football, one of the best number two is a pretty good tight end. And if the interior additions are what they think they are, like, this could be a top

eight offensive line. And I think more importantly to me, like this is actually the thing that I want to talk about. And I think might be the reason if the arrow is pointed up to me, it's not the quarterback. it's that I think they might have a good run game this year. Like if those interior players are good, they might be able to run the ball finally. I think one of the most slept on additions of the entire offseason is Jordan Mason coming over from San Francisco. I don't really understand why the Niners were in a hurry to part ways with him.

I know he had some fumble issues. I know it wasn't all great. But considering Christian McCaffrey's situation, the speed with which they moved on from a guy who I thought was very fun and has some really impressive burst. I thought that was weird and I think the Vikings could stand to benefit from it in a big way. All I can imagine there is the Niners looked at Isaac Grendo and maybe Kyle Shanahan just really loves him and was like, you know what? Garindo is there. I kind of forgot about him.

Yeah. And so maybe they were just like, you know what? We can bump Grendo up to number two. We'll take a running back in the fourth or fifth round or whatever they took Jordan James. and Kyle Shanahan was like, I'll just pass off this running back to one of my buddies in Kevin O'Connell, which again, I kind of agree with you. Like I think Mason can be, especially now that Aaron Jones is getting a little bit up there in age, you don't really necessarily want him to be a workhorse. Mason can eat a good amount of the carries and be like a pretty useful player for them. I also just love the stability in Minnesota.

KOC and Kwaya dofomenza signed extensions recently. you realize the Vikings have the sixth best record in the NFL over the time that KOC and Kwezi have been there. It's like since 2022, they're 34 and 17. Like the only teams that are better than them at stacking wins are like the, you know, the true powers in the NFL, the chiefs, the bills, the Eagles, etc. And that comes with a season where they lost Kirk Cousins halfway through. Like they know how to win football games clearly. I trust that even if there's some bumps in the road, honestly, even if for whatever reason JJ McCarthy doesn't work out, I think they're going to have a long runway to get things sorted.

And so, and I'm going to get to this in a minute. But like in a big enough picture, I think the arrows pointed way up for the Vikings, even if this year's team takes a step back from 14 and 3. Yeah, I kind of feel about them, the inverse of how I feel about Washington. Where I think Washington might be like same quality. you could tell me the offense will be slightly better and they could be, you know, an 11-win team and be decent. But I look at 2026 and I'm like, this is a little bit scary in terms of the way that the roster is put together. I think about Minnesota the opposite. And I think it's because

of the JJ McCarthy situation, right? Like, I just, even if he might be fine, I just don't think he's going to be like a difference-making quarterback in year one. But you could tell me that by year two or year three of him starting that he might be a difference-making quarterback. And I think over those two or three years, they'll have a chance to finally retool the secondary in a way that they haven't the last offseason or so. So I think big picture, arrows pointing up, I also think they'll probably be a worst team than they were last year. I'm pretty comfortable saying they're going to be a worst team. Just like 14 and 3 is crazy. 14 and 3 is crazy. And the third loss came on the final night of the season. I mean, it really was a remarkable story. So I have no problem.

saying they're not going to have as good of a record. Like, if this team goes 15 and 2. Are, oh, that's interesting. I think I probably would. I think I probably would. Like the NFC is stacked, but I'd probably still pick them. The preseason over under is eight and a half. So I'm going to say you feel confident saying they go over that.

I think they can still get to nine. I think they can still get to like nine or ten and be in the wild card at the very end. I don't think that would be that crazy. It feels attainable. I'm, I'm nervous just because they play in. I mean, they play in the deepest division in the NFL. Like even if the lions fall, even if the lions fall off a little bit,

that's still a team you got to worry about. I mean, 11 wins is the bare minimum to win this division, I would guess. Yeah. That's a good point. Like, it's going to be bloody.

Hopefully, you know, theoretically the bears are better. Theoretically, the Packers are a little bit healthier quarterback wise. I'm with you, though. Like, 9 and 8, 10, and 7 feels attainable. It's hard to say, that for sure until we see what J.J. McCarthy looks like, but I can see it, but obviously that is

mathematically much worse than a 14 and 3 season. So I do think the arrows pointed down, but not terribly. Well, and so I think that's kind of like, I would think that eight and a half number is a little bit baking in like the possibility that J.J. McCarthy just sucks. Because if he just stinks, like none of the rest of the roster matters, they win six games and they're cooked. But if he is at least, like I said, he only has to be quarterback like 22. And this offense is humming and they can win 10 plus games. So I think the eight and the half number feels less to me like that's their midpoint and more just the range of outcomes is pretty high. And if J.J. McCarthy doesn't hit, they could be pretty ugly. But I just, I'm kind of with you. I trust O'Connell enough to get him

to like functional, even if he's not good. I'll be shocked if he's outright awful. And yeah, I mean, what are the odds? All so many of the guys from last year's quarterback class played. so well. And even the guys who struggled like Caleb, and we didn't really see a whole lot of Michael Pinnock's, but like Caleb, Drake May, like even those guys had reasons or flashes of why you might feel confident.

It's just hard to imagine that he would be outright terrible, especially again, maybe if he was, if he was quarterbacking the New Orleans Saints this year, I would have a completely different opinion. But he's quarterbacking one of the best rosters in the league and that matters.

I just, I think, I think the floor can only go so low. And I hope I don't eat those words in a couple of months. All right. That's all we got for today. But listen, training camp is just getting ramped up. We got so much more coming your way. Robert will be checking in from the road wherever he is.

We're looking forward to that. Until then, we appreciate it for Derek. I'm Dave. We'll talk to you soon.