The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - What We Learned During NFL Free Agency

Episode Date: March 22, 2024

Teams around the league started putting cards on the table this month, when the market for free agency opened. Robert Mays chats with PFF’s Brad Spielberger and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler about what this month’s player movement says about the plans teams are making for the draft and what it says about the markets for certain positions this offseason.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Dane on Twitter: @dpbruglerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. Dane Bruegler is going to be joining us a little bit later. We're going to talk with Dane about the ways that free agency shaped the draft. Obviously, any mock drafts done before the last two weeks, there's going to be some changes. Deems filled needs.

There's been a shifting landscape as it relates to the draft. So really had a good conversation with Dane about how some of these moves and how some of the money spent could shape the way that the early part of the draft specifically is going to look. But before we get to Dane, though, I wanted to have a conversation about just some of the big picture lessons we can learn from free agency as it applies to the NFL at large, what some of these signings mean, what they mean for certain positions. Obviously, we spent all week last week reacting to these things in real time and trying to give some input about what those signings meant for the teams.

But now that we have some distance from it, I wanted to zoom out and chat about some big picture lessons. And the person I wanted to have this discussion with is someone who's done a phenomenal job of breaking down all things for agency over at PFF. And that is the salary cap analyst for pro football focus. It's Brett Spielberger. Brett, how you doing, man? I'm doing fantastic. How you doing? I'm doing very, very well. You and I have been talking about a lot of these signings privately over the last week or so, because if people don't know, you're also a Bears fan. And I think that you and I have been more plugged into this offseason than we've probably been to any offseason for like three years because the stakes are real again. So I figured it was just time to

have that conversation that we were having in private and just bring it to a public forum as we took a step back and chatted about what free agency can teach us here. Yeah, just convert the DMs into a podcast. I think it's a great idea. And actually, I'm excited to hear what Dane says. I think the biggest thing we'll get into it a little bit, but the kind of thing people need to understand more and more is the relatedness between free agency and the draft. We learned so many lessons from that week. So I'm excited to hear what he has to say. So let's dig into this. The first question I wanted to ask you, and we can go a bunch of different directions and I'm sure there'll be a bunch of answers to this. But as you look at the

contracts handed out over the last two weeks, which deals do you think have told us the most about the landscape of the NFL? Yeah. So the league at large, I think you are just seeing the continued growth of the interior of both trench units. So first, obviously, those defensive tackles, we obviously had some indications, but I do think the big thing that happened this offseason was. Aaron Donald, shout out to the legend. Thanks for everything, Aaron. You know, had this outlier deal that was so often the stratosphere in its own tier above 30 million. And every player besides him was 22, 23, 24, even Justin Medibake gets 24 and a half this offseason in terms of average annual value. And then Chris Jones, you know, Kool-Aid man kicks the door open and says, no, I'm in that Aaron Donald tier as well.

Like, don't get it twisted. And then Christian Wilkins was able to split the gap. So it's just the continued evolution of that position is like it rivals or it's close to rivaling the edge rushers. If you can rush the pass around the interior, you are, you're a pass rusher and you're going to get paid like it. What do you think led to that market expanding in that way? Is it simply an errand Donald effect? Is it about availability of those players with certain avenues in the NFL? Why do you think that moment has come now? Yeah, so it's twofold.

First, I think it is just how they are deployed in the NFL. And the way they are viewed, obviously we've had three technique pass rusher types. But I think you did see kind of an overall philosophy of you stop the run with those guys between the tackles and you rush the passer with the edge rushers. And obviously that has changed over time. But I also think the second point there is key. I've written about this a bunch where we talk about premium positions a lot. And I don't think defensive tackle over the last couple years, if you ask people, they probably would say edge tackle receiver. Maybe they would say corner, which we'll talk about a little bit later too.

to me, defensive tackle, because of the scarcity of available talent. And the big thing for me is, A, go look at the list of the 15 highest paid defensive tackles. There's like one or two guys that are not first round picks. And then also just go into free agency every year. And obviously, we've talked about, you know, Christian Wilkins, but it's just you don't find a lot of premier talent that hits the actual open market. Whereas we've gotten like your Neil Hunters, your Jonathan Grenards, like your Bryce Huffs, like those guys do seem to make it more often. So I think that is the big thing. It's just it's hard to find.

those dudes if you don't draft them or trade a bunch for them or what have you. Even if you look at Christian Wilkins hitting free agency specifically, that's a unique case just because of where Miami is in their team building process. So even he feels like an outwire. And I think it's a really good way to think about how premium positions are becoming defined around the NFL. Because as somebody who really does a lot of work and has a lot of conversations about the schematic impact of these guys, that's how that's the first place my brain goes, a premium position is somebody who can flip the math in one way or another as you're trying to plan who you want to be on offense or defense. But the market and availability also

plays a role here. And if all of these guys are never going to hit free agency, then suddenly they become premium positions because of scarcity and because of how much you have to pay them. And then the way that the market starts creeping up and up and up is these outliers become normal, whether it's Chris Jones or Aaron Donald. And then if you can get one of them, If one of them can sneak out of that team control and into free agency, then those markets are going to be pushed up. How pissed off do you think Justin Matabike is that he signed his deal five days before Christian Wilkins did? But now the next guy in line is going to be very happy that Christian Wilkins ended up getting to the market. And the cool thing about Wilkins that you touched on there, the football side, he is a guy where, like, on early downs, his presence can enable you to put an extra back seven defender on the field, right?

You can play nickel or big nickel or dime because he can two gap. He can do everything. The guy plays like 900 snaps a season too. So, you know, I think some people still always on a premier pass rusher. This year he was great. He doubled his career high in pressures for us, had a bunch of sacks. But yeah, but the calculus, he changes like you're talking about. Schematically on early downs, the presence of Christian Wilkins changes what the 10 other players are doing on your defense.

And I think there's a lot of guys you could say that about. I mean, obviously, Dexter Lawrence has phenomenal past rush production, but what he can do in the middle of a defense. And a credit goes to Eric eager, who I think two or three years ago was writing about this per PFF, just in the shifting value of interior defensive linemen as the league got lighter in terms of box counts and what you were doing at linebackers. So I think we're starting to finally see the full-on wide-ranging impact of that. And as that happens on defense, we've almost seen a market meeting it on offense like you alluded to. We have guys like Robert Hunt getting $20 million a year. Damien Lewis got a nice deal from the Panthers as well.

Jonah Jackson got paid. I think the Canary and the coal mine was the Kevin Dotson deal at $17 million before the market even opened. So as you've watched the guard market explode, is it as simple to you as well? If these guys on the other side are getting paid $25 million, shouldn't the guys task with blocking them one-on-one start to get paid a little more as well? It's a very, very common agent spin. And it should be, right? That's them doing their job. You hear it all the time.

They literally say, I'm going to go in and tell the team, if my guy's doing a good job of battling, these players and their market is spiking, why would not, why would the opposing position not have the same effect? So I think it's certainly a big, big part of it. And I think it is, it's like it's legit. I think it's real. I think it should be reflected in that way. Do you think there are other market forces too, though? Do you think that's it or do you think there are other things at play here? I'm curious because I haven't necessarily landed at anything, but you think about this in a much more critical way than I do. I think that is the biggest one, I will say, just like what they're tasked with is, again, like the same principle where

maybe they were only asked to be good run blockers, but they could be weak in past pro, you know, historically. Now you can't. You have to also handle these 285-pound three technique Aaron Donald freaks of nature and then also be able to, you know, get off a combo block against a 350 pound nose tackle and get to the second level and climb as a run blocker. So I really think that is like it's a fair question. And we can get into the market a little bit too and the mid-tier growing, not just the top,

I think is a different conversation, but I think just at a high level, it really is just, yeah, the guys we're going against are more scheme diverse, skill set diverse, and it's a bigger challenge. I wonder if the scarcity element of this has a chilling effect over the next few years, though, because guard is an exception to what we talked about with defensive tackle. If you look at the highest paid guards in the league, some of them are first round picks, like Chris Lindstrom is, Lana Dickerson was drafted fairly high, but these guys are a lot of second round picks. Jonah Jackson was a third round pick. Kevin Dotson was a fourth round pick

Wyatt Teller bounced around the league Ben Powers got paid a lot of money as a mid-round pick so it does feel like there are more avenues to find guys at this position so I wonder if there's going to be some sort of downstream effect later where teams don't feel like they have to overpay

for guys to get starting level play at that spot specifically. It's great you mention that because I want to say five or six off seasons ago we had a similar thing where the guard market just popped like a bunch of dudes got paid something that made sense that you know like a Zach Martin for example, I think was in that year. Like, obviously he's going to get there.

But a bunch of other guys kind of also were able to cash in fairly strongly. And the next couple of years, it was the opposite. There was a kind of a correction, like you said, kind of a chilling effect of, okay, this wasn't the greatest idea. And that ties into, I won't get super contract nerdy for the most part. But I do think a fascinating thing here is different position markets we've seen try to go for shorter and shorter deals. And obviously, you know this now.

But I want to stress this like the fans more. I think because of baseball and basketball, we think, longer equals better when it comes to contracts. And the NFL, that is not true. Almost 90% of the time you want to get back to the market faster because everything's rising, because things are not guaranteed outside of the second, maybe third year. The guard market had been one where it was so hard to sign those short-term deals.

We've seen receivers, they all have three-year deals now, you know, insert position, whatever. Guards, it was always four or five. And so you mentioned Kevin Dotson and then also Jonah Jackson for the same team, but then Mike Anwanoo, who I know might play right tackle. But still, all those. guys got those three-year deals that shorter term. I think that was a bigger win even than some of the actual money. We're also going to match that short market, get back to the market because guard might continue to spike or like you said, it might have a downturn, but either way.

So you think that's solely a product of having leverage in negotiations? Beyond the AAV growing, that's also just a sign that the position is being valued more? I would say so, yeah. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I do wonder when and if that bubble purse. Because Robert Haunt Wall, a solid player. $20 million a year for Robert Hunt is a very big premium that you're paying. And I just don't think that really applies to the types of players that you're paying a defensive tackle because there aren't a lot of like second tier guys hitting the market to overpay.

And that's also something. I think receiver has been similar. And we could talk about this. It almost feels like the lack of available players has saved teams from themselves when it comes to the receiver market because there haven't even been guys that you're willing to overpay because so few of them are hitting the market overall. I think it's a great point. And I think just real quick at the last put a bow on the guard thing, tackles, their markets have been lagging. So once Tristan Wurbson-Penaisal are making like 30 million a year,

then maybe teams will say, okay, we're going to pay guards last because tackles are back on the upswing. But yeah, the receiver, it's a good point, right? If there were more like good but not great type of guys, they probably would be getting Calvin Ridley-esque contracts. But he got it because he was kind of the only Calvin Ridley tier player. A very good player, no question about it. But he's not in anyone's top 15 receivers list. So you're right. There's just not that many of those guys available. We'll talk about a receiver in a second.

The other spot, though, that is a good story and a feel-good story in terms of guys getting paid in this market is running back. There was a running-back market correction this year that had been coming for a long, long time. Sequin Barclay, Josh Jacobs, I mean, other guys even to tear down from that. The fact that DeAndre Swift got that contract on day-one of free agency, I think was pretty surprising to everybody. what do you make of the running backs finally charging back in the market after a very cool couple of years? I think there's two forces of play here. So the first really is, I do think that some teams may now have believed we reached an inflection point where, okay, look, I know Seaguan Barclay just got 12.5 or so million per year looks like a big deal. Derek, or not Derek Henry.

Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson signed for $14 and $13.5 million a year in 2012 or whatever it was, like over a decade ago, right? So yes, it's a big deal in our eyes. We see it. It's also still, it's the Nick Chub contract from even less of a historical reference there. And even that was $12 million a year signed two years ago. Right, right. So it's still like you're barely matching these recent deals that weren't even super strong for the player at that time. So I think that's the first one. The second one for me, and I don't think it applies to guard or interior defensive line. This one is a signal to me they do not like the draft class. I think teams across the NFL because you mentioned you Andre Swift, and Tony Pollard and Henry and a lot of guys did well.

I think it's because I don't know if we have a top 50 pick in this year's class at running back. How real do you think that is in any given year? Do you think that they're that tied together or do you think that we can overblow that sometimes? I think it's sometimes like I'm trying to get better at appreciating how big it can be because I think linebacker is also why the linebackers did so well. I don't think we're going to get a top 50 pick at that position either. Maybe no first rounder. It depends though, right?

because, you know, depth versus top heaviness have different, you know, like implications for the free agent market. So I think in this case, it's like both are pretty weak at some of those spots. But yeah, I think it can be a pretty big deal. Beyond the bigger picture positional conversations, was there maybe one or two one-off contracts at other positions that were higher than maybe you expected them to be as part of this overall class? Yeah. So the Ridley one did stick out to me, you know, going to be 30 years old in this upcoming season. I know he said he's really 25. I haven't seen the science there, the research behind that. But, you know, I trust them. But, but I just, you take two years off. I mean, that math does almost track. Yeah,

exactly, exactly. Right. A few bumps and bruises over the course of that time. But, you know, I just think because we've seen now what happens I talked about, where top of market is different than mid-tier, different than lower tier, and they grow differently in different off-season. we've seen a pinch now where because we're going to have guys making 30 plus million dollars a year, that high end number two, like markets aren't gradual. They don't go in accordance with how good you are. There's these tiers and plateaus and drop-offs. And so I just, I get it was in division.

There were a lot of suitors there. And like I said, he kind of became the bell of the ball once Mike Evans went back to Tampa. I was pretty surprised. He got, you know, $4.92, $50 million fully guaranteed. That was a bit surprising to me. if you look at where the brakes are, the inflection points in the receiver market, we're going to do a whole show about this next week,

so I don't want to dig too far into it. But it really does feel like the middle is what's going to get squeezed out eventually. You guys are going to have the guys at the top of the market that are going to get paid. Justin Jefferson, I firmly believe when it's all said and done will probably be the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL

by the time that negotiation ends. And then CD Lamb is going to get paid about the same. And if I'm CD Lam's people, The moment Justin Jefferson signs that contract, I walk in and say, well, that's what I want. I want the exact same thing. I think guys at the top of the market are probably going to warrant that. But then you look at the step down and those deals with secondary receivers are getting lower and lower and lower.

There aren't that many guys that are signing for $13, $15 million a year. So I wonder if that trend continues. I think so. And this is not the greatest example, but to me, even like a Mike Evans deal where, look, he's six months older than Julio Jones was in 2019 when he signed for three years, 66 million with 64 million of that guaranteed. And flash forward five off seasons. And Evans is getting two years 41 in terms of base value. So yeah, like it's a worst contract five years later, even without accounting for inflation, anything like that. And as much as, I mean,

he's a legend. And like, you probably should stay. He's still like number one, but he's 30 and all that. So he's number two. And I think that is an example of a pinch. Yeah, the only real contracts, I mean, I think after the Christian Kirk deal, even though the Christian Kirk deal, even though the Christian Kirkdale has aged better than people expected it to. Teams have avoided that general range when they've handed out wide receiver contracts. I think the only thing, and Dana and I talk about this a little bit later, the Jerry Judy contract is a little bit of an exception. But even that is for less of an AAV when you actually look at the real money that

what Christian Kirk signed for two years ago. So I think so many teams are just looking at this and saying, why would I pay a number two receiver $15 to $18 million a year when I can just draft one in the top 50 over and over and over and over again. And I don't think that that's going to go away anytime soon. No, I totally agree. But then the number ones will get their payday, but they'll just, like you said, just the rest of it is just we'll just try to figure it out in the draft, hope it's as good as the class as it is this year, which has been a bunch recently. So outside of the receivers, not necessarily cashing in here, were there any other individual

player deals or even markets that came in lower than you expected? I think one of the more shocking deals now in hindsight of the offseason to me is Jalen Johnson in Chicago. And ignore like how a, got there and maybe they could have done better earlier, whatever. This is a 24-year-old pro bowler second-team All-Pro that signed for his average annual value of 19 million is about 7.4% of the cap, right? So a way we look at these deals often is you can't just stack up 19 versus 21. 21 is Jaya Alexander.

That deals from 2022. So it's two years old. It's a different market. 7.4%. And that was about 10% of the cap. 7.4% is like a Marcus Peters 2019, James Bradbury 2020, like low end number one, high end number two corner deal. And Johnson, look, he has some warts. He misses some time, stuff like that.

But he's an 800 plus snap a year guy. He was phenomenal this past season. And like I said, he's 24 years old. I think there were agents around the league hoping he was going to reset the market. And he didn't even come in the same stratosphere as resetting the market. Why do you think that is? Why do you think that the corner market has been depressed or relatively depressed for as long as it has now? Because this is going on like three or four years, it feels like.

It's in line with like offball linebacker and safety at this point. It's kind of crazy when you really look at it. I think sometimes things are just cyclical and like, look, we'll get Pat Sertan and Sauce Gardner and they'll sign these crazy deals. Maybe even AJ Terrell, this off season will push it forward a little bit. But sometimes it's just simply who's coming up. Are there great young talents? But it is still weird.

I do wonder if kind of time back to the top of our conversation, if those interior, you know, if teams are saying more and more, we're spending so much on defensive line, we are actually going to pay a little bit more for offball linebacker now. Safety is still not the greatest market for the players, but like one spot that's going to have to get dinged a bit might be corner. Yeah, and I wonder what Lerius needs going to get. I wonder if that can push it forward a little bit just because he'll have the leverage

of potentially getting traded and that obviously helps guys in negotiations. but this does feel like an extension of some analytical conversations that we've been having over the last four or five years because even if you're a Jalen Johnson and you had a pro-ball, all-pro caliber type of season, you're 24 years old, there's every reason to believe that you're on the upswing of your career. We've seen how volatile cornerback play is from year to year. So if you're going to be spending top of market money on a guy where you're going to be breaking the bank and he's going to be a top five to eight player at the position, even if your defensive tackle is a slight step down ceiling-wise from a corner, you know that you're probably

going to be getting very similar production from those defensive linemen every single year. It's going to exist in a narrow band of outcomes relative to what you're going to get out of your cornerbacks. The Eagles are a perfect example, right? So two years ago, obviously the pass rush was phenomenal when they went to the Super Bowl, but James Bradbury and Darius Slay played very well. They get paid last offseason, and then this year, the pass rush takes a slight step down, and the cornerback play looks very different.

So I can understand teams saying, even if that's a really good player, if I can only choose one and I can choose a defensive lineman or a defensive back, I'm going with a defensive lineman every single time just because it's a more reliable way to build my unit and to allocate my resources. No, no doubt about it.

And I think, you know, there are, I think we're advancements in how long guys can play, but I think you're seeing that more and more, the closer you are to the ball, the longevity is also better. And, you know, like, teams are paying 30, 31-year-old.

defensive tackles a ton of money. Leonard Williams just got three years, 64 and a half mill, and he's going to be 31 years old next year. But if you look at the recent history, that's not as scary as paying a 28-year-old corner, you know, because those guys just fall off, it seems, on aggregate, pretty quick, pretty quickly.

Yeah, and even if they come back, there are dips. I mean, you watch the roller coaster that you're riding with certain guys. Ronald Darby was a great example, right? So Ronald Darby was a bill for nothing, like four or five off seasons ago. He has a really good season. And I can't remember where even where that season happened.

I think it was in Washington maybe. Before the Broncos deal started. Yes. And then he goes to Denver and he signs for a $10 million a year deal. And that looks awful, right? So he's a perfect example to me of a guy that if you rode the wave and you got it at the dip, you actually got a ton of value. But if you sign him to an extension, those aged very poorly.

And there are obviously exceptions, right? Like Patrick Sertan probably is going to be, sauce gardener is going to be. But on the average, if you look at just cornerback play in the pool of town, that's often how it's been. So I can get why teams maybe a little bit more hesitant to spend there. Any other individual player deals that kind of put your antenna up

a little bit in a bad way? Not really. You know, I think, and I don't try to dig into this too much. I do hear some stuff, but like I don't want to speculate. It's probably injuries and stuff

that I just can't know going into my free agent research. So I really think those two were the ones that jumped out to me as just like, this was really kind of underwhelming, especially in hindsight, too,

once we saw where the guard, you know, where other position, markets went or just other deals went, period, because of the spike in the cap and all those things, it just made it kind of more glaring, you know, as we look back. Let's sort of shift us to the team side of things. And I don't want to necessarily put a value judgment on it, like good or bad plans. I want to know which team's plans in free agency told you the most, just about their strategy, their vision, the way they want to put their

teams together. Yeah. So the first one for me, we talked about Calvin Ridley. I think Tennessee just said, okay, obviously we have some element's degree of faith in Will Levis because we're going to sign one of the highest paid centers in the NFL now in Lloyd Cush and Barry. We're going to make a massive splash and go get Calvin Ridley. They added somebody else in the O-line as well, if I'm not mistaken. So, like, we're going to

give him a foundation to work with. Brian Callahan comes in, brings his dad who can coach up the O-line. They have the seventh overall pick, obviously. But, like, we're not going to sit here and not find out if Will Levis is the dude or not. And that's the biggest thing you're seeing out for a lot of these teams is like, don't let that question be

hard to answer. Do everything in your power because there's inherent value in that. Even if you argue, oh, they pay too much for Calvin Ridley, okay, if that helps them determine whether they should pick up the option or extend to Will Levis or not, who cares if you paid a couple extra million dollars in the process? Yeah,

it is surprising, though, that they're that intent on getting that information. Because I think, we've talked about this on the show. I think I've mentioned Will Levis's name like 10 times since the season ended. And this is a guy who was drafted in the second round, but a team spent significant draft capital on.

And I think that what they've done in this free agent period is a little bit of a signal, that they think that they might be able to get a little bit more out of him than some people did based on the way he played last season. And that makes sense, right? It was a terrible situation. The reason they need to spend all of this money is because they had no talent on offense and arguably the worst offensive line in the entire NFL. So their urgency, not just on offense, but on defense.

And the fact that they were willing to shell out what they did for a guy like Chedobie at Woosier and spend the money across the entire roster, it was a little bit surprising to me because I didn't necessarily know, this is always difficult to parse, right? So you have year one of a new coaching staff, but year two of a front office. So what's the actual timeline? Atlanta's like this where, okay, the coaching staff is in year one, but clearly that's not what sort of timeline they're on. They want to win right now.

So it does seem like Tennessee has a little bit more urgency than you might normally a tribute to a rebuilding team with a year one coaching staff. It's a good shout. And obviously, it might not get done, but even have Diana coming on your show and mentioning they were in the Legerius Sneed conversation, but they still are, they were. Like, they're clearly in on every conversation, which says a lot. Yeah, it's surprising to me. I don't know how this ends up working out, but they're definitely one where I was like,

okay, all right, I guess that's where you are right now. Anyone outside of Tennessee that you had kind of a similar thought about where you felt it was illuminating what they did at Free Agency? Yeah, so two more. So the first one's Minnesota. I think just, I think it was smart of them to rip the Band-Aid off and just start over. I could see the enticing nature of bringing Kirk Cousins back again. He was playing great ball last year before he went down with the injury. But obviously we all think they're going to trade up for a quarterback now, especially after they made that trade with Houston to get the extra first round pick this year. But also just getting young across the board. Like Jonathan Grenard instead of Daniel Hunter, cheaper and younger, bringing Andrew Van Ginkle back to play with Brian Flores. you get Blake Cashman

off ball linebacker. I just think they realized, look, we have two good young tackles, two good young receivers, tight end. Let's just drop a rookie quarterback into this once and for all and see if we can pull it off.

And I think they're going to finally take strides towards doing that. Yeah, watching the divergent decisions from the Falcons and the Vikings is fascinating, where the Vikings just said, all right, this is not the life that we're going to live anymore. We are going to move on. And my understanding of,

the thought process with Minnesota and why Kevin O'Connell really wanted to keep Kirk cousins. Think about where Kevin O'Connell was before he got to Minnesota. He was with the Rams. And Matthew Stafford, when the Rams traded for him, was not considered like a top eight quarterback. That's not the type of player that we were discussing. If he was, he wouldn't have been traded. So Matthew Stafford comes in as, let's just say a borderline top 10 guy. The phrase that was used to me when talking to people in Minnesota about Kirk is, he was a red player with blue moments is how they describe Matthew Stafford. And the reason that's important is if you have situationally a spot where if that guy's

blue moments come at the right time, we can win a Super Bowl, there's value in having that sort of quarterback. And that's exactly what happened with the Rams. You gave yourself an opportunity when if you're in that position and his hot street comes at the right time of the year, you can win the Super Bowl. Think back to where the Rams were even the middle of that season. They were not the best team in the NFL. They needed a couple breaks to get there.

And I think that certain people on the Vikings coaching staff, you'd Kirk Cousins the same way, where he's a red player with blue traits. So if we keep putting ourselves in this position, eventually we might be able to break through. But when you think about the general manager's background, the odds are not in your favor playing that game over and over and over again. It's difficult to thread that needle.

But that's exactly what Atlanta is now going to try to do. They're going to bank on the fact that the rest of their roster, is good enough, where if we win the NFC sound and get into the playoffs, we have a red ship quarterback with blue chip moments that if he gets hot for the right stretch, that maybe we can do this. So watching one team elects that

life while another team decided to move on from that life in real time is just fascinating. It really is. And the Rams example is interesting to me too, because they had some like, you know, the Niners were already kind of a juggernaut at that point. I do think Atlanta's calculus a little bit is this division is not going to get any

worse than it is right now. So let's take our swing. And it's a good point you mentioned too. Like the general manager, I'm not going to say he's on the hot seat, but his seat is not cold for Terry Fontano and Atlanta right now. So you know, you have these young pass catchers. It's year four. It's year four and the head coach just got fired.

Like there is a mandate. I don't know if it's a win, make the playoffs or you're gone. But I guarantee you that Terry Fontno understands he's got to win double-digit football games this year to feel like he's safe. Yeah. No, I agree. But it is just funny you said. Like you see what the downside effect could be, what are they Kirk made the playoffs twice,

one game, I want to say a little bit. And obviously lost to the Giants. Like they saw that and still chased it and the guy just tore his Achilles. But at the same time, I kind of buy into what they could do with a couple more moves and, you know, get an edge rush with the eighth overall pick, whatever. Like, I could easily be convinced it's going to work at least with the division, maybe make the conference championship game, something like that. Yeah. And this, again, the fact that they have the eighth overall pick, they're probably a better position to pick a quarterback now than they will be at any point over the next three years. So if they wanted to get on the rookie quarterback timeline, they probably could have.

I mean, we're talking about the Vikings going from 11 to 3 or 4. It's easier to go from 8 to 3 or 4. So that path was available to them. It's not as if, you know, this is, I'm trying to think of a good example where teams are, you know, their borderline playoff teams, they're picking in the 20s. Like the Daniel Jones contract happened in part because the Giants were picking 19th overall and didn't have a pathway to a young quarterback. That's not where Atlanta was.

Atlanta consciously decided to live this. this Kurt Cousins life when they probably could have found a path to getting a rookie quarterback. And I think it's a very telling decision. Yeah, it's like they were Pittsburgh. We'll probably be the good example this year, right? They were like, we're 20. We can't pull it off, so we'll sign Kurt Cousins. You're right.

You're right. I'll also say that. It'll be a fun sound bite. I did talk to a personnel person who was like, don't sleep on them still doing it. It sounds insane. It sounds crazy, but don't sleep on them still. And I think it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but they were like, don't sleep on it. If the contract is structured differently, then maybe I can understand that.

Let's say it is the type of deal that the Vikings wanted to give him, where the guarantees are mostly pushed into year one and two. The dead money in year three is such that, all right, it's $25 million. So when you pair that with year three of a rookie quarterback contract, we're only paying the room 30. We can get away with it. But the fact that all those guarantees are so high in year three, I just think that you're burning the rookie quarterback deal.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I agree. Yeah, no, I'm with you. The Kirk thing in general, and I think that this is, this is a much larger conversation that we could have about how teams are borrowing from their quarterback contracts. But if you're looking at what Kirk is doing, if the Vikings, or excuse me, if the Falcons really wanted to push this thing into the red, they would be able to just restructure his bases over the next two years and then eat a lot of dead money in like 20, 27 and still be

really aggressive in the way that they're building the team. And I wonder if they're going to be teams that are more willing to do that with these sorts of quarterbacks because this is the downside of signing a quarterback to this type of contract, where it's between 35 and 45 million a year for three years. Not only is it the cap space that guy is taking up, but teams are hesitant to restructure those deals. So when Josh Allen is, Josh Allen's never going to make what his base salary is against the cap if the bills don't want him to. But with guys like Jared Gough, with cousins, teams don't typically do that. So I wonder if teams are going to be more willing to take on that risk a little bit further down the line.

So these things don't become team building anvils in the way that they have been over the last four or five years. It's a great job because you always hear the stat. I know the Holmes is now destroyed two years in a row. But I was pushed back on when there was the whole like no quarterback making more than 13% of the cap, whatever. Yeah, because the elite guys were getting their contracts restructured every year so the teams could spend more around them.

So yeah. So anyway, I think it's a great point. And I think the best thing there, we're getting a bit of. a mid-tier market at quarterback now, which basically did not exist. But Gino Smith and Baker-Mayfield are on actual mid-level deals. I have no doubt if Baker-Mayfield, who did not get tagged, went to the open market, and tried to chase more money, probably could have gotten it. But I think he was smart, and I think it's good for the NFL that we're getting that kind of market developing a little bit.

Yeah, because you look at Kirk Cousins' contract, right? So 2025 is a $40 million cap, but they may not touch that. But when you get to 2026, it was a $35 million-based salary. And then in 2027, there's only 12.5 million in dead money left. So in 2026, if they wanted to just take a pen and strike out that base salary, you're moving that dead money in 2027 to like 30 million, which by the time the cap gets to 300 million, you'll eat that every single time. So I wonder if the appetite for dead money is going to change the way that teams are treating

some of these tier two, tier three quarterback deals in a way that they haven't before. because Ryan Tannahill was really the only one I can remember being restructured in real time, and that ended up becoming a problem for the Titans. Like there's real risk in doing it, but I wonder if the attitude around that is changing as the attitude around dead money changes. That's a good point, right, because obviously that is changing the second part, just dead money in general, but also, like you said, those guys, you're kind of afraid to do it. So yeah, whatever. Like, we'll take a bit of a dead hit.

The cap is going to continue to spike. We'll just, we'll use the inflation to eat that dead money, which some teams obviously do, like, Philadelphia just does that on principle. And the Browns are doing that now, too. I mean, there's, again, there's a larger conversation to be had about how these teams are manipulating the cap. And I just wonder if, because the Falcons have been, this is a very big tangent now, but I think it's a good conversation.

The Falcons, if you look at the ways that they've spent over the last, let's say, five to seven years. Obviously, they rebuilt consciously two years ago. So they were down near the bottom of the league in cash spending. But near the end of the Demetrov era, they were willing to spend whatever. I mean, they were one of the highest cash spending teams in the NRA. So if you have an owner who has the money on hand and you're selective in when you take some of these shots, then I think that it allows you to have more flexibility in the way you're building a roster. Yeah, no, it's a good point. And Blank is one of those owners. He wants to spend and push things forward, and I think they're going to continue to do so.

The last team I wanted to mention here just because they spent a shitload of money over the last two weeks. And it relates to the garden market conversation that we were having. What do you make of the way that the Panthers specifically have approached this off season? Yeah, it's been interesting. So, you know, there is always a tax to a degree if you're not a very good team. And, you know, players know that and they want to compete and they want to win. So you have to pay a little bit more than you would like to. But I actually think when you take a step back. So the Hunt deal, yes, it's five years, $100 million, $20 million per year, over $60 million. I get all that. But we talked about earlier, the short term. To me, Mike Anaminew signing for three years, 57 is a stronger deal for the player than Robert Hunt signing for five years 100, right? So Carolina does have that control, which is what teams are always looking for. I love Damien Lewis. He was one of my like favorite guys in this free agent class. Yeah, it's a strong deal. But again, with the context of the guard market, I think it's a fine contract. So, you know, I think it's A, just still, even as bad as last year went, just saying we're still going to go by the principle of you spend around the rookie contract quarterback. We're going to ignore to a degree what happened last year. And then look, I love the Deontay Johnson trade. And maybe an extension comes, but he's out $10 million in cash right

now. The best separator on the roster by a country mile the day he got traded for. So yeah, I think it's like we might view it as weird because they're chasing competitiveness. But in their mind, they're probably saying, no, look, last year was a disaster. But we have the first overall pick from last season. This is what everyone does when they have the rookie contract quarterback top five pick. I also think that it not even just chasing competitiveness. I think it's chasing answers for your quarterback like we mentioned with Tennessee. Let's just give him a situation where we can actually evaluate him coming out of. of year two in a way that we couldn't last year.

And I think that investing in guards, we've seen this with short quarterbacks over and over and over again. It makes total sense. And like you mentioned, Deante Johnson is the skill set that they just were missing within this offense. But I also think, and I'm thinking about this with the Judy trade as well,

if you're missing draft capital, inevitably, you're going to have to overpay for some of these guys because you just don't have as many avenues to fill these holes. So Carolina doesn't have a one this year, and they don't have a two next year as part of that trade for Bryce Young. So it's almost a compounding effect where

not only is your quarterback not playing well, but what you gave up for him forces you to overpay in order to get the right pieces around him. And I think that's just the life the Panthers are living right now. It's a great shout. And you mentioned the Browns of Judy. That trade obviously was cheap, but they gave up their second to get Elijah Moore and a third.

Like you have to, like you're saying, if you want to add those players, you have to actually, it compounds the issue. So those plans told us something about these teams. whose plans in free agency did you not understand? Did you find a little bit confusing when you're looking at what they say about the big picture? Yeah, there's a couple. So, you know, one I think is the Chargers and obviously, you know, far be it for me to doubt what Jim Harbour was going to come in and do there.

I thought it was weird, though. They moved on from both receivers, but then kept both edge rushers. And obviously, we now know the edge rushers were willing to take pay cuts and Keenan Allen was not. I don't think Mike Williams leaving was a surprise to anyone, but I just found that weird. Like, if you're going to rip the Band-Aid off and have Justin Herbert, throwing the ball to, you know, Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson and Darius Davis, like maybe also trade Kalil Mack or Joey Bosa, you know, in addition to Keenan-Oe-N-A-S. That one was kind of weird.

Number two for me, probably should have said them first. I don't know what the Niners were-I-L-HER. Let's talk about the Chargers because I agree with you here, right? So Keen-A-N-Lan was making $23 million in cash at a $34 million cap. If you look at what Joey Bosa and Kahl-Mak negotiated down to, it's still a $26-25 million cap-dollar capits this year. And that's beyond what they're going to cost a little bit further down the the road because of some of those restructures, right?

Joey Bose is still at 36.4 next year. So they would have been able to afford Keenan Allen if they had decided to move on from one of those guys. The Chargers right now have $35 million in cap space, and I don't totally understand what that's for. So I think that, to me, is one of the more curious parts about this, is that they were compliant. They could have kept Keenan Allen on the roster without touching it at all.

Yeah, and there's just still these glaring holes, like obviously receiver now. and then like a corner outside of Asante Samuel, like I couldn't even tell you who they have on the roster right now. So maybe I'm just not thinking of someone. But yeah, it's just, it was a bit strange. And who was the other team that you were going to mention before I cut you off? Yeah, no, you're good. The Niners.

I just, look, they like made a bunch of splashes at edge. Leonard Floyd's been a very productive player for a long time. But I know it was a bit of an overpay kind of paying four sack production, two years 20. And then they just kept spending on defensive line. I get it's their principle. I get us what they're all about. Yetter Gross Matos. hasn't really done anything in Carolina over his entire rookie deal,

and they gave him a very, very strong contract. I want to say 216 or 218 was the deal there. And it's just like, are they, I think they're not going to trade one of Brandon Ayuk or Debo Samuel. If I had to make a bet right now, I would say by the end of night one of the draft, one of Debo Samuel or Brandon Aeke will not be a San Francisco 49er. And I just,

I don't know. Their offseason has been kind of weird to me. Yeah. I have a similar feeling about the receivers. And we talked about this recently where I just, if I was trading one of those guys, it would be Debo. I'd think that Iyuk is an elite, elite player. There was a conversation earlier this week about what the Jags would have to give up for

Iyuk. And you were talking about this where I believe it was me, O'Brien, who covers the Jags down there, was talking about the package that San Francisco was looking for. And it was the 17th overall pick and Zay Jones for Brandon Ayuk. And I would do that 100 times out of 100. There would be nothing about that deal that would preclude me for making it because I think Brandon Ayuk is like a $30 million a year receiver. So I would not want to trade him.

Where Debo, I just think isn't that level player. I think he's more of a luxury than a guy like Brandon Ayuk is a foundational piece. So everyone's talking about I yuk getting traded. But to me, it feels like Debo would be the guy that I would let go if I was San Francisco. Yeah, I mean, he's owed 40 mil over the next two years. It'll be his age 28 and 29 season. And obviously, look, I love the guy's play style. It's one of my favorite players to watch the entire NFL.

But it's not exactly a play style you think he's going to age. particularly well. You know, he's had like 800 yards receiving two years ago, 700 last year. You know, seven big moments, makes big plays in the playoffs, has, you know, the highlight of the year almost every year. But yeah, I could not agree more. He's going to be tough on the cap, but I would make it work. And that kind of goes back to my original point. I would be sitting there being like, I'm probably going to move out from Debo and then give out this massive deal. I'm not going to go chase edge fours for edge three money when I'm trying to plan for, you know, having these elite receivers to help out Brock Purdy while he's still cheap, which obviously is only one more year.

The team that I keep coming back to, I'm just trying to figure out what the plan is here, is the Steelers. I understand all of the moves that they made. If you look at what they did at quarterback, there is real opportunity for excess value at that position. You're paying Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to combine like $4 million this year. You're going to get more than $4 million worth of quarterback production from those guys. And that's fine. If that's the goal is just to maximize all the contracts on your team. I totally understand that. But to do that and then trade Deontay Johnson,

and I just don't understand what the Steelers want to be this year, especially on offense. And I'm wondering if you can help explain that to me. I legitimately think it's more underappreciated and, like, hilarious storylines. So Arthur Smith led the NFL last year in under center rate. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have, like, never done that. He runs via the heaviest rate of outside zone. Naji Harris and Jill and Warren are like gap inside zone scheme runners.

Like nothing about their offense makes any sense in any way, shape, or form. Like, look, Artis Smith's a great coach, was able to revitalize Ryan Tannale and figure things out and maybe he can adapt and change what he does. We haven't really seen that yet, but it is the most oil and water. Like, the quarterbacks don't throw over the middle of the field. They don't run quick game. That's what Arthur Smith wants to do. I have no answer for you, I would love to ask you the same question.

I really don't know. It just feels like they had him come in, and then they gave him Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and then took away their number one, or number one, A, one B receiver. It's like, all right, now go see what you can do with this. And I think Arthur Smith, when given a clear path, has been a really, really good offensive coordinator, right? You go to Tennessee. Here's Ryan Tannahill. It almost reminds me that Jonah Hill, Billy Bean conversation in Moneyball, where they're sitting there, he's like, this is this guy's superpower. This is what he does well. If you're sitting in an offensive meeting room in Tennessee in 2019. It's like, all right, here are the three things that

we have. We have a quarterback who just stand in and throw the shit out of the ball over the middle of the field. We have a 225 pound receiver who can just dominate everybody on in-breaking routes, and we have a machine at running back. You are forced to build the offense out of those three things. The results were incredible. They were everything that you could want out of that specific group of players. In Atlanta, all the roles were more nebulous than that. It was hard to figure out exactly how everyone was supposed to be used. They had this positionless idea. And at a certain point, I think that entire staff just got lost in the sauce. And now you're taking this hodgepodge group of players from Pittsburgh, and it's way too close to the Atlanta situation than it is to

the Tennessee situation. So I think that you're just asking for poor results by putting him in this spot. Yeah, and like, Biggins is a good fit with the quarterbacks because they can both throw deep down the sideline. I understood why Mike Williams was potentially going to take a visit there because same thing. He can go up and get it as a jump ball contested catch guy. But I think the whole point of getting Arthur Smith was to stop doing it that way. Yeah, that's the thing. Like, it's just, it's all so confusing.

The other team that is sticking in Pennsylvania, I've talked about this in the moment, I don't totally understand the Eagles. Like, I just don't totally understand it. Going out and spending that amount for Saquan Barkley, signing Bryce off to that contract when you have those edge rushers on the roster. The thought of trading Josh Sweat never really made a lot of sense to me. He's still pretty young. He wasn't making that much money this year.

You wouldn't save much against the cap by moving on from him. So I just don't know how all the pieces fit together. And listen, that entire front office and Howie Roseman specifically deserves a benefit of the doubt for being able to see how all these puzzle pieces are eventually going to fit. But right now at this stage, I don't totally understand the vision for what the Eagles are trying to do. So I would say overall, I hear what you're saying. And I think, like, I can't speak to all of it. The offense is a bit interesting to me as well.

I will say this on Howie as a general principle, and I think it ties to the edge rushers. He would always rather be a year early than a year late. So both guys are going into contract years. Reddick's going to be 30 soon. Sweat, obviously, younger. That one I also didn't really understand. Although I do think they kind of made them play chicken because sweat took a pay cut and stayed. And so now I think Reddick's going to get traded when you bring in Bryce Huff.

And so he's sitting there saying, thanks for your services, Reddick, but you're about to be 30. giving you another contract. We'll trade you somewhere else. We'll get draft capital. And we just signed basically your replacement in Bryce off. So like that in a vacuum, I understand. But yeah, sometimes I think when they're trying to be a year early instead of a year late, it almost like, Galaxy reigns too strong of a thing to say. But like, I think sometimes it kind of gets them into like some weird decisions in a vacuum. I actually love that because I think that if you forced Highway to go back a year, he would do the cornerback situation differently every single time. because if you look at the way that they handled that position at this time last

off season, Darius Slay was cut. There were news reports about him being released. And I know that they did not plan on bringing James Bradbury back. They thought that he would have a market in free agency that would preclude them from bringing him back. But then when the price was okay, they hedged on it a little bit. We're like, all right. I mean, at that price, maybe we'll bring him back.

And guess what? Both of those ended up being mistakes for exactly what you're talking about. They did not move on a year early in the way that they typically do. so I wonder if this is an overcorrection because we've seen this from Howie in the past. When he took the job back over after Chip left, the first thing that he did is sign all of those homegrown guys to monstrous extensions because he was overcorrecting for what the Dream Team Eagles felt like. So we've seen this from them. And I wonder if that's a part of it. I hadn't thought about it that way. I think it's a great shout because, I mean, like,

I'm not getting anyone in trouble. Like, Slay thought another team thought Slay was on there, like, basically on their roster. That's how far along it got. Yeah, it's a very good point because this is such a reactionary league, both league-wide and internally in each building with themselves. They really like over-correct. So it's a good point. Are there teams, to wrap this up, are there teams that we're just not talking enough

about because the moves they made were a little bit quieter? They weren't necessarily headline grabbing. But when you step back and think about it, you like the way that they've handled this offseason. Yeah, so I want to preface this because I, you know, I'm so deep. the weeds on it and like I've been getting yelled at by Lions fans Lions fans I think we're all praising what you're doing I'm not going to mention you right now because I think a lot of people that Robert and I talk to think you've done well um so the so the the one that's not

obvious that no one is talking about and I don't think they've been incredible but the Washington commanders I kind of expected them to have new owner syndrome and to make some gigantic splash and try to say hey we've got a new stadium coming we're going to have this shiny new quarterback let's just go out and get like Daniel Hunter and Christian Wilkins let's just be stupid. And they didn't do that. They did spend a lot of money and they did bring like if you shook Dan Quinn's hand, you're probably on the roster now. But still, like the Dorrance Armstrong deal is fine with me. I like getting Taler Beaudish to come in and be that veteran center for Drake May or Jaden Daniels, whoever. A lot of the moves they made, I think were fine in the market. I love the

Frankie Louvo deal. Adds a pass rush element. The contract itself was strong. They spent a good bit, but none of it was high level because I think what now they're saying is we have five top a hundred picks. I think it's like six in the first 103. Those guys are going to get massive deals. Those are the players, they're going to be foundational cornerstones that we can build on. I just, I'm glad they didn't do nothing because they kind of sat out for agency

two years in a row, but I, but I'm also in hindsight, I appreciate them not going crazy on one or two smaller deals and instead spending mid-market on like a half dozen. Yeah, and I think that that's a very good point for a team at that stage of the process. A team we did not mention and should is Houston.

Post Jack Easterby, you know, in the first couple years of the Nick Casario era for real. They just operated on the margins in a free agency. And it's not exciting, right? It's incredibly boring to talk about, I'm trying to think of a really good example. Like, AJ can for two years and 13 million. Like, no one's getting pumped up about that. But by slow playing it for those first couple years, they position themselves this

offseason. They have no bad contracts. Zero. So when it comes time to put your foot on the, to put the gas pedal on the ground, they were able to do it. They had the flexibility to spend however they wanted to when the time came.

And I think if you look at other kind of quote unquote rebuilds, you know, teams in stage one of that process, teams that have eventually gotten good did not over, not even gotten good, and eventually given themselves avenues to improvement, did not overspend early. The other example, I think,

is the 2020-on Lions. The Lions spent no money in free agency over the last couple years, and now they've been able to operate however they want. They could absorb a Carlton Davis at $13 million with no problem because they have the flexibility to do that. They can spend on a DJ reader because there's

no regrets lingering in that free agent pool. The Bears are the same way. The Bears spent zero money a couple years ago, and they don't even have to blink to add $23 million of Keenan Allen because there is no Darius Williams or Ray Sean Jenkins contract on those books. So I think some of these teams, whether it be Washington or the Patriots, I'm sure fans are frustrated when you're looking at the way that they've spent money. But if you think about the pathways to being a really good team in the NFL. Approaching it this way has a lot of benefits. I also was going to mention Houston earlier.

I just love that basically every deal they signed is a two-year deal. And we're not sitting here saying they told us that they think they're going to be competitive. Like, we know that. Everyone knows that. I love that. I think their contracts told you, we have two more years before CJ Stroud is eligible for an extension. And he's going to get like $70 million a year.

So let's just sign the Neil, Danico Autry, all those guys. Get them off the books before that extension hits the books. And I don't know if they structured their contracts the same way, but I think that the chiefs handled this similarly. When Mahomes was in his first couple years, that's when they did things like the Frank Clark trade. And not all of them worked out, but I think that's when you have the window to be hyper-aggressive. And I think that more teams would benefit from doing that. The one thing I wanted to talk to you in that exact vein before we got out of here, you and I disagree about the DeNeal Hunter thing. because I understand that the bears are not in the same position that the Texans are in, right?

Where the Texans are, they're going to be a championship caliber roster right now. So giving Daniel Hunter that deal, which is almost not precedent. It's a fully guaranteed contract, essentially. That is a strong, strong deal. Your stance on this is that the bears probably should wait before they start doing that type of stuff. I absolutely would have done it. You have the cap space. He's the type of player that you don't typically have access to in free agency.

So even if you don't have that year, of information on your quarterback the same way that the Texans did, I still would have pulled the trigger on that. You have the money to do it, and you just aren't going to have avenues to that sort of player otherwise. This is the, uh, me doing a Howie Roseman, where I think I was just kind of thinking of Khalil Mack and they had, okay, we think Mitchell Trubisky might be the guy. He's been, he's shown some flashes. Let's go trade two first and reset the market. And then obviously he wasn't the guy. It's a fair point. I think it's a good point. Because if Caleb is the dude, like you said, you get it, you get out of year ahead of it. And,

that yes, there are good players that reach free agency. There's not really Daniel Hunter caliber guys that hit free agency all that often. Yeah. And for me,

it's, I just want the second edge rusher box checked. I just want it to be done and over with before this off season ends. And that doesn't need to happen. If they have to piece it together this year with DeMarcus Walker

and some other street free agent they bring in in August, you can operate that way. You don't have to be maximizing a Super Bowl window right now if you're Chicago, but bringing it back to the start of this conversation.

I think there's a growing level of excitement and interest. in what the team is that has kind of ticked up my urgency in a way that it hasn't been over the last couple of years. So I'm willing to be irresponsible in a way that I wasn't willing to be in 2022. Yeah, look at us not talking about a Super Bowl window, even though both deep down think we are in a Super Bowl window as of right now. I'm sure that's going to age wonderfully. Brad Spielberger, always great to chat with you, sir. Really, really appreciate the insight. We will do this again very soon. Sounds great. Thanks for having me.

Joining us now, it is the athletics draft expert. It's Dan Bruechler. Dan, how are you? I'm good. How are you? I'm doing very well. I wanted to do this with you because when I was looking back at free agency, I wanted to talk about what we learned on the NFL side from free agency. But I also think that free agency inevitably impacts the draft and it shapes what teams need, which directions teams might go. So I also wanted to have a discussion with you. Now that we're halfway through free agency, the first major waves are done, most of the dominoes have fallen. I think that the draft, mock drafts, where teams are going to go in which direction. has crystallized a little bit more than it probably would have been two weeks ago. So this feels like a good time to revisit the way that you're thinking about certain teams and how they might approach draft weekend. In a lot of ways,

it becomes tougher to do a mock draft because I think for a lot of teams, the goal is fill your needs and free agency, and that frees you up to do whatever you want on draft day, especially in that first round. If you have options and you want to maybe pivot and go in a different direction, you can because you're not tied to a certain position.

position. And so free agency, I think that's a good way to put it, definitely crystallizes how a lot of teams are what they're looking at. But at the same time, it does make it more difficult, too, as we try to project what positions these teams are trying to zero in on. Which teams over the past week have changed your view of them and their draft strategy the most? Maybe the bears with that ninth pick. Obviously, you know, quarterback's going to be the first pick. But that ninth pick was always interesting. And I know I was captain trade up. I get them one of those top three receivers and let's go have fun. But adding Keenan Allen, which obviously wasn't a free agent thing, but it was a trade thing. It's a big addition. I don't, a lot of us didn't see that coming.

It felt like Keenan Allen was going to stay put. But and kudos to Ryan Poles for making that happen. Now, okay, if one of those receivers does fall to nine, which still feels unlikely, but it's possible. if it does happen, would they still draft the receiver or are they going in a different direction? You know, they're bringing in Dallas Turner, the Alabama pass-fisher for a 30 visit. I think above all, that move, it gives polls the freedom to trade back and really get more picks. I think that's the thing with this move that the first thought they came in my mind more than anything else. A team, even if they're looking to maybe a team looking to get a tackle, trade up a few spots, to get in front of the Jets or one of these other teams.

Maybe a team really wants that first corner, whether it's Quinnian. Mitchell from Toledo or Terriand Arnold from Alabama, even if they're trading back three, four spots. If the bears can get back an extra third, I think that's something that will be at the top of the priority list for polls if he can make it happen. They don't have many picks at all. You look at what they've traded away. They traded a fourth for Kenan Allen. They traded a fifth for Ryan Bates. They traded a second for Montez Sweat. So they really have their third round pick and not much else because they trade away their six and seventh and smaller deals over the last year as well. And that's not typically how he's operated. I mean, they've stockpile picks for the most part in the first two draft,

so I wouldn't be surprised by that at all. And I think the thought process with the Keenan Allen thing is right, where you're not sure if one of those receivers is going to fall to you. You don't want to be put in a spot where you're desperate to find one. You want to give yourself flexibility. And I think that that's what a lot of teams have tried to do, even in this range of the draft, the other team I was going to ask you about, I assume you just had a tackle or an offensive lineman mocked to the Jets and everything that you've been doing over the last several months. And now the Jets, hammered offensive line early and often in free agency. They have

three new presumptive starters now with Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Tyron Smith there. So what do you think about the Jets and how that might pivot their strategy come draft day? Well, look, no GM knows better than Joe Douglas that there's no such thing as having too much depth on the offensive line.

So in no way am I discounting offensive tackle at 10. Just for, you know, knees purpose. Look, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses are both over 33. Tyron, he has not played more than 13 games in a season in eight years. And the 13 is an outwire. The 13 last year was actually much more than he's played in any season over the last five years.

So even 13 was better than you could probably expect. I will say this, though. They really like that second year tackle from Pitt, Carter Warren, who they drafted last year. They think he's a really quality backup who could be a future starter. Max Mitchell is still there. It's kind of a swing guy. He provides some depth. This pick is at number 10 for the Jets.

It's going to be offense. I mean, it has to be. Anything else would be a shock. So if it's not offensive line, the player that really makes the most sense is Brock Bowers. And look, he makes the Jets offense better from day one. And my very first mock back in Thanksgiving, I put Bowers to the Jets and definitely a mixed reaction from fans.

But I think this is interesting because one of the comps, you know, when you watch players, prospects, you write down a bunch of names as he shows a little bit of this player try to come up with good comparisons one of the names I wrote down for Bowers was Julius Thomas who did Nathanio Hackett had back in Jacksonville

Thomas who they signed to a good size contract They sure did that's when they were spending money on everybody Right and you know I don't know that necessarily worked out but it was someone they felt like okay this is going to be someone that we can center our offense around and with Bowers he's

he's more of a slot than a true wide, tight end, but that's okay because, I mean, who's the starting slot right now for the Jets? I mean, I don't know that. Xavier Gibson probably. I mean, that's what you're looking at. And if you look at how that would kind of synergize with the skill sets that Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams have, I actually like that a lot. I actually think that makes a ton of sense for them,

probably more than almost any other team that's picking in that range. Anybody else maybe in the first half of the first round or even beyond that where you had what you thought was a set of needs for them that has really shifted over the last week or so. Well, I think we have to mention the Titans, you know, that Calvin Ridley contract coming in, you know, Rayne Carthon, now in a second year as GM, as he said that he wanted,

they needed to get more weapons. They needed to get more dynamic on offense. And Ridley helps them do that. It feels like a wide receiver now at number seven is probably unlikely. I mean, you never rule it out. But it's always been offensive tackle there. That's kind of, it's almost makes too much sense for it to happen. and especially if Joe Alt from Notre Dame is there.

But it feels like, okay, yeah, could have been maybe Bowers, maybe one of these receivers, but now it feels like, okay, this is going to be Joe Walt. You know, the chiefs, I think this is a, the chiefs are interesting because you bring in Hollywood Brown. Obviously, it's just a one-year deal, but how does that signing change their thinking? You know, last year with the last pick in the first round, they went, Uzama from Kansas State, Pass Rush, who was more of a draft and developed type of pick. It wasn't someone like, okay, we need to fill this need immediately and he's going to play a big

part for our defense. No, he was a guy that they can draft and develop. They could still do, pick a receiver at 32, someone to draft and develop, but adding a Hollywood Brown certainly gives them options and it's no longer, okay, let's make sure we're giving the chiefs, the receiver that's, you know, Patrick Mahomes needs so they can compete for that third straight title. We've talked about this a little bit, me and Nate, just that Marquis Brown's skill set within that offense, you still kind of need a bigger body outside receiver that's going to fill that role a little more traditionally than anybody they have on the roster right now. So that wouldn't surprise me at all. Is there any team after free agency or this first wave of free agency has

ended that has left a need that you think make their draft priorities even clearer than they might have been a couple weeks ago? I mean, for me, the team that is kind of blinking in red lights here for this question is the Cowboys. The quietest team in free agency. Obviously, There's going to be reshuffling on that offensive line with Tyrone Smith gone, Tyler Beaudish gone at center. Based on my talks with people in Dallas, they're fine with moving Tyler Smith from left guard to left tackle, T.J. Bass starting at left guard,

and then Brock Hoffman starting at center. If they had to play a game tomorrow, that's what they're doing, and I think they'd be okay with that, much to the chagrin of Cowboys fans. Right, exactly. But obviously, they're going to address these positions in some way, in the draft. What, and I think the Cowboys are interesting because we, I think we know which positions are going to address.

We just don't know the order. Like, they're going to draft a tackle. They're going to draft a center. Are they going to do that for second round? Are they going to do it third, fourth round? We just, it's hard to peg down exactly how they're going to do it. And a lot of it will depend on how the board falls to them picking a 24th in the first round.

You know, if a Tyler Geithen from Oklahoma is their offensive tackle, I think there's a good bet. That's the pick, especially because, because this is a strong center class. They feel really good about the centers in rounds two, three, and four, someone they can get that's going to add immediate competition for the starting center job. And that's what they did with, I mean, Tyler Beaudish was that type of pick, you know, four years ago.

So I think they feel comfortable. Fourth or fifth, yeah. And so I think they feel fine going in that direction again. But then also running backs part of this too with Pollard no longer there. I mean, right now Rico Dowdell is the starter. And I've mentioned this before, but I think Jonathan Brooks, the Texas running back in the second round. That's the name to watch. But running back is a position that third round, fourth round, there's going to be plenty of options.

And so again, I think the Cowboys are a team where their needs and what the directions are going to go in the draft, I think, are very predictable. But the order of which the priorities, that's where we're kind of left guessing at this point. We've talked a lot about the top guys at center, Jackson Powers, Johnson, Graham Barton from Duke, the guy from West Virginia, whose name is slipping in my mind, right now, is Zach Frazier, who also is projected to be a potential late first round pick. Who are some of those guys, maybe outside of the top 40, 50 that you think can be contributors on the interior for somebody? Tanner Bordellini from Wisconsin. Sounds like a dish you probably ate at an Italian restaurant once.

Yeah, I love that. Yeah. He killed the combine. I mean, you see the movement skills fantastic in terms of the athleticism. He's going to be a guy, and obviously the Cowboys have had good luck with Wisconsin. Johnson Centers. Bo Limmer from Arkansas is another one when you get to the third round. Cedric Van Pran, Georgia, Hunter Norzad from Penn State.

There's legitimately five, six guys in this draft that you think can be NFL starters, guys that will compete for starting reps. And so those three guys at the top are, there are going to be some interesting discussions about, okay, how early do we feel comfortable taking one of these players? I think Graham Barton, even though he's coming off injury, might be the safest, just because he can do so much. The versatility is so appealing with him. And then Jackson Powers Johnson, he's got his own injury stuff,

but coming off one year at Oregon, he was so good on tape. I'm still trying to find the bad tape for him. And then Zach Frazier, another guy coming off injury, but he's a four-year starter, wrestling background, the kind of quintessential center for what a lot of teams are looking for. So, yeah, this is a really good center class, and the Cowboys will be coming away from this draft with one of those guys that we probably just mentioned.

Two teams I also wanted to mention here and ask you about the Patriots obviously are positioned to draft a quarterback. We know that. But they haven't been very aggressive in adding pieces in free agency. And that's understandable. You know, they're still in stage one of this thing as they completely retool the roster. But now they're going into the draft with so many holes

that I think it's going to be difficult to justify dropping a rookie quarterback into that situation and feeling decent about it. because you're walking into an offense that has Kendrick Bourne, KJ. Osborne, DeMario Douglas, and Juju Smith-Schuster as your four receivers. They're all, like, they all exist in a certain class of past-catching talent, right? If you're looking at that group as a whole. And then the offensive line still has several holes on.

Like, this is a team that still needs a left tackle. So if you look at the way that New England has approached free agency, including going to get Chacobo percent, would you say that their haul and their approach makes it more or less likely for them to stick at three and draft a quarterback or try to trade back and accumulate some pieces? Yeah, I mean, I think on the surface, this is a team that needs picks because they need players. They need to build. But at the same time, it's all about getting the quarterback right. And if you fall in love with one of these quarterbacks, then that has to be the pick at three.

And again, we've mentioned this before, but this is an ownership pick. It really doesn't matter what anybody else thinks about these quarterbacks in the organization. If Robert Kraft wants a quarterback, they're drafting a quarterback. And so maybe that depends on who goes to, assuming Caleb Williams is the pick to the Bears at one. The commanders, I was talking to people this morning still trying to see if there's any updates on if the commanders are tipping their hand. They're not. They're going through the same motions with Drake May as they are with Jane Daniels in terms of the meetings and all of that. And predictably, they're doing their homework, even if,

their mind, they know who they're going to draft it too. But that might influence what the Patriots do at three. There's no guarantee. I think, you know, in a vacuum, we think about these quarterbacks like, okay, one, two, three, whoever's the third quarterback, that's just, you know, the Patriots will obviously like that third quarterback. And that's not always the case. This might be a two quarterback class for them.

So time will tell on that. Bottom line, if you love one of these quarterbacks, even if the roster isn't set up ideally for what you want, I still feel like you have to do it. You have to pull the trigger because you just don't. know when you're going to be drafting this early again. But again, that's assuming that the quarterback at three is who they want. If it's not, then they'll have suitors to move back. And I'm, you know, the getting that the, the, all those picks, getting the, the return is something that they need and something that you know, Elliot Wolf would love to have to really build

this roster the way he wants to do it. The other one that jumped out to me, we talked a little bit about this yesterday with me, you and Nate, just discussing teams that might be willing to trade up for wide receiver. The Steelers now have a very real needed receiver that they did not two weeks ago before training the Atte Johnson. So that's a team where the way that the draft lines up, you could easily see them drafting a receiver in the first round or very high in a way you probably couldn't have 10 days ago. With all due respect to Van Jefferson, yes, 100%. And this is a team that needs more, especially with a quarterback with Russell Wilson, you know, he's going to rely on his guys to get open and they need some more help there.

And is that something they want to do in the first round? This is a, they've met multiple times with Ricky Pearsall from Florida, through these other receivers that are going to be in that second round. So it feels like somewhere in the first three rounds, they're going to draft a receiver. It just depends on is the right one available first round, second, round, third round in terms of when they actually pull that trigger. Stepping away from the teams and looking at the positions more so.

Which positions in this draft do you think were helped, by the way free agency unfolded, just creating a need for guys at those. spots. You look at wide receiver and tackle. On a larger scale, and you think about the receivers that were available this offseason. You think about the tackles that were available this off season. Not a lot of high-priced guys, pro bowl level players. And I think it's kind of a clear message for these teams saying, hey, if we have a really good tackle, a really good receiver, we're not letting them leave. You know, T. Higgins, we're not going to give you away for nothing.

but it also matches up with the strengths of this draft. There will be more wide receivers and offensive tackles drafted in the first round this year than any other position. And it's just a really interesting way. I don't know that one affects the other. It's just kind of how it's worked out in this particular draft and this offseason. But I think it does speak to the larger point that, hey, if teams have one of these guys, the tackle or receiver that they feel is a pro bowl of a player, they're just not letting them go. You look at the market

and it gets you could throw Jerry Judy into this as well just because he got an extension off of a trade. So if you take Jerry Judy, Calvin Ridley, Darno Mooney and Gabe Davis, those are the only guys that signed new contracts this offseason for more than $10 million a year, which that $10 million threshold is probably what I would say is a full-time starting receiver contract in the NFL.

And how many of those were 4,000 yards receiving last year? I think just Ridley, right? I think, yeah, right? Yeah. It probably just would have been Ridley. So even that number is getting pumped up a little bit. So you have four starting level receivers who were available on the market this year. Four. That's it. And even those guys are further down the line with number twos. I mean, Nate, Darrell Mooney signs in Atlanta. He still thinks they need another receiver. So there's a lot to be said. And Gabe Davis is the same way, right? Game Davis sides in Jacksonville. And they still wanted to bring back Calvin Ridley. So I think every point you made about the market and what's available is absolutely correct. And then if you extend it to tackles,

it's almost worse. There's only two offensive tackles in this free agent class that signed multi-year contracts to be starters. Mike Unwenu and Jonah Williams, that's it. Even the other two starting tackles

that were signed over the last week or so, Tyron Smith is on a one-year deal with the Jets and Trent Brown's on a one-year deal with the Bengals. So you can make an argument that five total spots were filled at starting wide receiver and offensive tackle roles in the entire span of free agency despite how much money was spent over the last two weeks.

That's insane. That is insane. No, and that's a fantastic point. And again, it matches up with this draft. We're going to see more of those two positions drafted in the first round than any other position. And it's just part of it is just coincidence the way it's matching up. But a lot of it is teams want to draft and develop these positions and then hold on to them, extend them, and build their roster that way. So it really will be fascinating.

If you look at the two teams to really shelled out. money for receivers. The Titans had a hundred holes. The Titans had all this money and it was impossible for them to fill every need that they had. So them and Calvin Ridley, so they had a spot to draft a tackle, I can totally understand that, why it makes sense

for them. And then the team that signed Jerry Judy after making that deal, they're not pick until 54. So they're in a unique situation where they're one of the only teams that in that push and pull of why would we pay Jerry Judy $17 million a year, we can just draft a guy 25th overall.

Well, the Browns can't. So even the two teams that did shell out money for receivers only did so because they were in unique circumstances compared to how most NFL teams are looking at the position right now. Right. The Judy extension in Cleveland, it's definitely a kind of a head scratcher on the surface. It's kind of similar what they did with David and Jokke, where instead of waiting until his market blows up, let's get the deal done now and hopefully history looks back at us as, okay, yeah, we made the right move.

But yeah, it's looking at a team that. they looked at their wide receiver options. This is a win now team. They're looking at their options and saying this is the best thing we can. This is the best course of action in terms of upgrading our wide receiver depth chart. Because the drafts, it's a long shot to find a guy like Jerry Judy in the second round of the draft. In terms of the money that we can offer and who's available. This is because the draft picks, what, fifth and a six round pick?

It's all it took to get him. So in terms of everything that the Browns are dealing with right now, in terms of building the best possible roster around the quarterback, this was the best they could do. And I give Andrew Barry credit for having the guts to do a contract like this. But would I have done it? Probably not. But, you know, it might work out. We'll see. The best comparison to me is what happened with Christian Kirk two years ago. There's actually a ton of similarities. Even in the way I think Cleveland is conceiving of how he's going to fit in their offense, it's like a vertical slot player. Christian Kirk got $18 million a year two springs ago

without ever having a thousand yards season. Jerry Judy got $17 million a year, is still only 24 years old, and got less money in a larger, more inflated cap. So I think that's what they're trying to do, is they're trying to get that sort of deal where it looks crazy based on his production, but if you drop him into a slightly better situation,

is that deal actually going to age pretty well? I think there are real questions about that thought process and that strategy, but I think that's ultimately what drove their deal. decision to try to get this done now because the Justin Jefferson deal is coming down the road. The CD-Lam deal is coming down the road. So if you can get a guy at 17 million when the receiver market is now going to be 34 to 35 million potentially, I think that's what they're trying to get in front of a little bit. So if tackle and receiver were positions that were helped by free agency,

which positions do you think were hurt by free agency, where enough slots got filled, or maybe some of these guys are going to be pushed a little bit further down the draft? I'm fascinated by the running back market. We have never seen anything. You know, looking at my, the first day of free agency or first day of tampering and getting updates on my phone, just felt like every other update was a running back. It was just crazy to see the mad dash of all these teams. Tadu's worth 10 minutes in. It's not something I was ready for. Right. No, exactly. And it's still going. You know, it's still the teams every day are picking up a running back. The volume of guys out there that are available. It's crazy. But, you know, and there's a few things here that we can kind of pick apart. First of all,

just a sheer number of running backs that are available. I think it speaks to a lot of teams saying, hey, we can find a replacement for you, or at least 85, 90% of what we already have with you at a much cheaper price tag. And in some cases, maybe upgrades over what we're letting go. I mentioned this on our last pod, but there's a good chance we don't have a top 50 running back this year,

which would be the second time ever. If only at the time was 2014 with Bishop Sanky. So it just doesn't happen very often. But with that said, we're going to see a lot of these running backs play off the board, round three and round four. But it is interesting now with a lot of these. A lot of teams did sign running backs, but a lot of teams also gave up running backs. And so how does that, you know, it's just kind of like a constant, you know,

musical chairs of, okay, we're going to let this one go. But you know what? We've got a lot of fresh running backs coming up through the draft we feel comfortable with. So just the constant movement of the running back market is really interesting. So let's look at the running backs. I would say that maybe like $7, $8 million a year is probably what you would say is like starting level running back money in the NFL right now. Maybe even a little bit less. Maybe if you go to like five or six.

But if you look at the contracts handed out, we said there were five total tackles and receivers that were given starting level contracts in free agency this year. There were six running backs. Josh Jacobs, Saquan Bargley, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, and Derek Henry all got starting level running back contracts. So there are more running backs signed as starters in free agency

than offensive tackles and wide receivers combined, arguably. And that doesn't include, you know, the Aaron Jones, the, I mean, like a lot of quality guys that are going to see close to, if not, starter level, snap. I should have included Aaron Jones, but the total value is a little bit lower,

so he was lower on my list. So you could argue eight. Yeah. That's crazy. That, that, and it's, I don't, we haven't seen anything like this. Like, this isn't like, I mean, I think it's been building to this, but this is, this is different than we've seen in the past, uh, in terms of the office. And I don't know that, um, is this going to be what we're going to see every year now?

Is this like, is just a one-off, this type of running back movement this year? Uh, it would be interesting to track this moving forward. It seems, I don't know how to characterize it because I'm tempted to say it was a blip because we're a year removed from. Bijan and Jamir Gibbs going in the top 12. But then if you look at what happened after Bijan and Jamir Gibbs, who was the next running back that went off the board last year? Charbonnet?

Yeah, so Charbonnet was a second round pick. Yeah, so Charbonnet was a second round pick. But even after Charbonnet, we're talking mostly fourth round guys, right? Tage Spears, Rochon, Johnson, and guys that were a little further. Spears was third. Yeah, Tank was third. Bigsby.

But yeah, Kendrae Miller to the Saints. For the most part. That's right. Yeah. Third Rockbacks. Yeah. Right. But for the most part, yeah. I mean, we saw there were big gaps there. And in this year's running back class, it's just, there's a lot of quality guys, but no true studs, stars. And so there's going to be a run. It's just when's that run start? And you don't want to be first in line necessarily, but you want to be last in line either to get your running back in this draft.

Last thing I wanted to ask you before we got out of here, was there a move or two in free agency? And this can be trades. This can be signings that made you sit back and do the. the wind horse. Now, why would they do that sort of response? I mean, the Judy extension, obviously we touched on that. I think not that they traded Justin Fields, but the return, that was certainly a kind of a, whoa, okay, interesting. So that's what the NFL thought. And, you know, I know the bears got some criticism for why don't you just hold on to them. And you have players in that locker room openly campaigning for Fields and to, you know, not draft the quarterback at one.

When obviously the Bears are drafting a quarter. Everyone has known they're drafting a quarterback at one for months. You had to trade them. So the Bears did what they had to do. Still, the return was surprising and disappointing. The Vikings trade. This is interesting because when Kurt Cousins decided to move on to Atlanta, clearly the Vikings shit mind,

their thinking shifted to, okay, our next course of action for the quarterback is we're going to go draft one. And we're picking it number 11. We have to figure out how. How are we going to go up and get our guy? And their first move in that process was to trade picks to move up to pick 23 and have the Texans pick more ammo. So now it becomes interesting. First call to the Patriots, finding out, okay, what's it going to cost to move up there in the event that the Patriots are ready to do business?

Cardinals at four, chargers at five. Those are your three phone calls now for the Vikings to figure out, all right, what's it going to take to go up there? who's our dance partner going to be. If they can't find a trade partner in those three picks, three, four, five, then things get really interesting with Minnesota and what they decide to do to make sure they answer their quarterback concerns.

And as much as I'd love to still believe in Donald, obviously, he is the bridge to whoever they end up drafting. In your way that you've asked people about this, the digging around that you've done about it, does it seem like it would just be easier to make that move with an extra one than it would be with two-toes, even though if you look at any draft

chart, the two-twos are probably more valuable than the extra one. Like that process and why they would choose to do it incrementally like this, I still don't totally understand it. So I wonder if you've sniffed around on that at all. Yeah, I think it's just two-ones sound better than a one and two-two's. I think it's just as simple as that. Even if when you really sit down and think about it, I think, and then I think it'll be split, depending on who you talk to. Some teams will see the value of having multiple twos and what that could be. And I think it really depends on what your draft board looks like. If you have, you know, if you feel like those two twos are really third or even fourth round

picks on your board, then all of a sudden that one is looking pretty nice. And so I think it just depends team to team. I don't think there's going to be a, you know, a broad consensus on, on, you know, whether or not that's the right move. But it's obviously going to take more than just these two ones, 11 and 23 to move up probably next year's one. If you're the Vikings, you have to add some type of sweetener in there. And is that going to be enough? Pick 11, pick 23, next year's one to move up to 3, 4, or 5. On the surface, it should be.

But obviously, again, it takes one of those other teams to trade out of a top 10 that is a strong top 10 draft. Now, you're only trained to 11. You still feel good about the players that are going to be there. But still, it's a big ask and not every team is going to be comfortable doing that. I'm pretty sure the last time we saw a team make a move from that sort of range. If you go back to 2021, you look at the Niners and the Dolphins. So the Niners traded 12, a 2022 first round pick, a 2023 first round pick, and a 2022 third round pick. So even that required a little bit more than just the three once.

So even if they did 1123 and the 2025 first, they still might need to throw something else in there. Alec Lewis, our Vikings writer, in their beatwriter mock today, it was 11, 23, 2025, 1st, 226th is what they eventually settled on, which if you look at history, it might even require more than those three ones. But something you said that I thought was interesting, something, how the Patriots deciding to take a quarterback as an owner pick, I assume trading out of taking a quarterback is also an owner pick. So it's probably easier to go to your owner and say, listen, we got two ones this year, we got a one next year and that's the easier sell rather than here, let me show you on the draft chart where the two twos are actually more valuable than this other first round pick that they're offering us. Yes, great point. And that's a good way to frame it because that's how a lot of owners, a lot of decision makers will look at it and see the value of a first over having to wait another day to make multiple picks. So yeah, and if you're the Patriots, again, you need the picks. You need to build that roster.

And so if you're not totally head over heels in love with that third quarterback, then you're going to be open for business. And so it'll be interesting because, again, we still don't know who's going to be two, who's going to be that second quarterback drafted, if it is Jane Daniels, if it is Drake May. I think that if Drake may, if, let's just say Jane Daniels goes two to the commanders, I think the Vikings will probably, I think they would add even a little bit more to go and get May. I think that is who they want. And then if they can't get May, I think they are fine with Plan B being J.J. McCarthy and what he can be in that offense with Kevin O'Connell.

And if I'm May or J.J. McCarthy, I'm loving that scenario. I'm fitting in there with Minnesota where I'm not going to be pressing action from day one. I'm going to be brought along and developed my own pace. So that would be. an ideal landing spot if I'm one of those two quarterbacks. Something I landed on today that I hadn't previously thought about is that let's say four ends up being the spot where they think that they can trade up. What did we see the Cardinals do last year? Because I assume Cardinals fans are just general people watching this would say, man, the Cardinals would really trade out when they could get Marvin Harrison Jr.

Well, the Cardinals traded out of the top five last year and then traded back into the top 10 to go get Paris Johnson. And we've talked about this. If there's a growing, if there's a consensus or a thought among some of these teams, that there's less of a gap between Marvin Harrison Jr. and the other receivers than maybe people on the outside perceive, the Cardinals trading back to 11 and then maybe trading back up to 7 with the Titans or something like that because the Titans think they can get their tackle at 11, that's easily a set of moves that you could see based on need, situation, and

previous actions that we've seen so far from that front office. It is risky because there's a good chance we see, okay, let's say they move up to four and they take the quarterback. Okay, if they believe it's a two receiver class and receivers go five, six, then, you know, you might lose out on the guy you want at seven. So there is risk involved doing that. But yeah, what did Austin for, Moni, Austin, for GM tell us with what he did last year, is he is more than willing to be outside the box with his thing.

in terms of trading around, being creative to make sure they get the guy that they want, but maybe add a few picks in the process. So yeah, and again, yeah, as much as, I mean, I think Marvin Harrison Jr. is the top receiver in this draft. Nate thinks he's the top receiver in this draft. A lot of people do. It's not a consensus. And even if you think that he is the top receiver, if you have Malik neighbors biting at

his heels right there with him, if you have the chance to add some more draft picks in the process, then I can understand why you would choose a Malik neighbor. plus a little bit extra overgoing Marvin Harrison Jr. So that, I think that is part of the conversation. And something else I wanted to mention too is if,

let's just say Drake May, people are going to be crazy with this. Let's just say Drake May goes two to the commanders. What are the chances that J.G. McCarthy is the third quarterback drafted? Is that possible? Let's just say you're the Vikings. I think it's absolutely possible.

So do why. And I think people will lose their mind over that when they hear this. But if, okay, let's just say, yeah, May goes two and the Patriots they want in May. They're not Jane Daniels. And this is hypothetical, but they don't want Jane Daniels. So they trade out of there. Vikings go up to three.

And they feel good about JJ McCarthy over Jane Daniels. That's certainly a realistic scenario. And that's something where, again, there's no consensus order with these quarterbacks. Everyone looks at them a little bit differently. And that's important for people to keep in mind. And that's not just it's personality fit, it's scheme fit. it, it's everything. So let's not just, it's not the top three quarterbacks. It's the top four quarterbacks. And if it gets jumbled a little bit along the way, I don't think it should

surprise many people. What I want to see is, and this is going really far down the rabbit hole here, I want to see Arizona move back from four to 11 and then trade back up to five. So in actuality, all they did was drop back one pick. But because a team is going to pay a tax to come up for a quarterback, I would almost guarantee that when you're done with that set of moves, you're going to come out in the black with the draft capital that you added. And again, we've seen them be created before. And we know that the Chargers have been vocal about potentially wanting to trade down. So I think we could see some wild movement in the top 10 of the likes that we have not seen in quite a long time. That's a great point.

I think that's an interesting and very realistic scenario because of the reasons you said, the Chargers won out of there. They want more picks. The Cardinals have the upper hand because they pick first between those two picks. And yeah, I would, that's good. We're going to see some action at the top 10. There's no question about it. It's just where does it happen and what is the ripple effect? You know, there's going to be a domino effect based off of that first trade and how the

quarterbacks play out. And so that's what's going to make the first round a lot of fun. And I'm glad we're going to be doing it live so people can enjoy it with us. You just spoiled it for people, but we are going to do a live draft show again. this year, hopefully from Detroit. Still having some details ironed out, but no matter what, we are going to be coming to you guys live

during round one of the draft for year three with you, year four overall, I think is how long we've been doing this. I don't know if there's actual footage that exists of the first one that Nate and I did from that hotel room in Chicago where we filled them with an iPhone. I need your Justin Fields reaction.

That was that draft, right? That was that draft. You know what? I still stand by it. In the moment, I still think it was the right reaction. Sure. Oh, absolutely. Yeah, it's not that it aged poorly. It's just in the moment, that's what it was. Absolutely.

I can't even tell you how nice it is to need a quarterback and know who that quarterback is going to be and where you're going to get it. The fact that Keenan Allen was just at Caleb Williams' Pro Day, can you remember anything like that? No, that one was, that's surprising. I mean, I've seen a lot of things at Pro Days. I remember going to see Johnny Mansell's Pro Day

and President Bush was there. I mean, I've seen some crazy things of Pro Days, but no, and you know, he's in L.A. obviously, being, you know, formerly the Chargers. So, like, it's, and the Bears spent a lot of time in L.A. So they probably met with Keenan and, you know, it was one of those things where it just kind of worked out. It probably didn't take a lot of planning to make it happen. But yeah, just the fact that he was there. And, I mean, that, it is, it's pro days for quarterbacks don't really, I think they're kind of useless in terms of the player. The reason why a lot of teams go to these pro days, for quarterbacks is the person. They want to see how you interact with these guys. They want to see just how you carry yourself. And yeah, I don't, the bears are certainly, they're not hiding their interest in Caleb Williams and, you know,

not hiding from the fact that they, that's the clear favorite for what's going to happen. So, yeah, it's a much different look at this quarterback situation than what Bears fans are used to. Yeah, we've had some different treatments of number one overall quarterbacks over the past few years, including the Jags pretending that Trevor Lawrence was not the starter for half of training camp does not seem like the bears are going to be going down that same road. Dan Bruegler, thank you very much for the time, my friend. I know you've got a million

things going on. For everyone, just a heads up, the beast is coming in early April. It will be on its way. It will be available on the athletic. It is the preaminent draft guide in this industry. The amount of work that Dane puts into it and just how exhaustive every look at pretty much every draftable player in this class is, there is no other resource in this space like it. So, be prepared to be on the lookout for that when it drops here in a few weeks. I know you are hard at work on that thing right now. Yep. It's trying to keep up. We're

counting down the days. So we're under two weeks now, which is crazy. So we'll get there. I always fret this time of year because it looks like we're not going to get it done, but we always find a way and this year will be the same type of thing. Always appreciate it, buddy. We will talk to you next Thursday

with me, you and Nate. We're going to be breaking down the quarterbacks in earnest that day. Until then, enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much to Brad. Thank you so much to Dane. Sincerely appreciate all of you for listening. We'll be back on Tuesday with me and Nate doing our next chunk of Mott draft scenarios.

We're going to do 25 through 18 on Tuesday. If you haven't listened to the first episode, we're just going through the needs and potential paths for every single team in the first round. So please go check that out if that interests you at all. For now, that is all we got. Sincerely appreciate you listening. Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon.

This was the Athletic Football Show.