The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - What's keeping this season's Super Bowl contenders up at night?

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

As we head into the final month of the 2024 regular season, we know who the true Super Bowl contenders are. What's just as clear, however, are their flaws. Robert Mays and Fran Duffy from PHLY of the ALLCITY Network dig into those flaws on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.RundownBrowns-Broncos recapWhat's keeping the Steelers up at night?What's keeping the Vikings up at night?What's keeping the Packers up at night?What's keeping the Ravens up at night?What's keeping the Bills up at night?What's keeping the Chiefs up at night?What's keeping the Eagles up at night?What's keeping the Lions up at night?Another way the run game is backAn argument for quarterbacks should exhaust their college eligibilityWhat the rest of this season means for the 49ersHost: Robert MaysWith: Fran DuffyExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Fran on Bluesky: @fduffy.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Fran on X: @FDuffyNFLTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football brought to you by Thursday Night Football only on Prime Video. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. My buddy Fran Duffy from PHLY of the All-City Network who does a fantastic job covering the Eagles, but is also a draft expert

and just somebody I love chatting about football with is here to talk about last night's shockingly exciting Monday night football game between the Browns and the Broncos, not what I expected to enjoy as much as I did. And then after that, I wanted to talk about the contenders as we head into the back half of the season. And you'll hear me lay out what a contender means later in the show. But we picked eight teams with the best Super Bowl odds. And we just

picked one thing about those teams that as we get into the home stretch is keeping us up at night. What's something we're worried, a potential big flaw with these teams that you should have in the back of your mind as we get toward the playoffs. So very much enjoyed my conversation with Fran. Let's get to it. Joining us now from PHLY and the All-City Network. One of my favorite people to talk about football with. It's Fran Duffy. Fran, how you doing, man? Robert, it's great to be on.

Great to join you, as always. I appreciate you having me. You used to work for the Eagles. So you did a lot of Eagles specific content. And, you know, like anything, there are some restrictions put on you when you work for a team and the types of things that you can do. Now that you are in a different stage of your career, let's say that. You can be a part of these conversations that go a little bit wider and we can talk about

the whole league. And I'm very excited to do that with you today. We are going to talk about what we are going to talk about what we are. We think are trying to decide the right framing for this. Fatal flaws seems a little bit too strong. I think the best way to approach this is we're going to look at the contenders. And the way that I'm describing contenders is teams that have a 25 to one shot or better to win the Super Bowl. It gives us a nice clean break after eight teams.

And we're going to talk about an element of those teams that's kind of keeping us up at night as we head toward the home stretch of the season. The playoffs are really kind of set in a lot of ways in both conferences. I think we have an understanding of who's good, who's not. This is a decent time to do this. Before we dig into that, though, I wanted to recap a surprisingly great Monday night game. And I think that there have been a few of these this year where, you know, you open up a Monday or Thursday night game and island game and you think, all right, you know, it's Bucks Falcons. It's Steelers, Browns, and a snowstorm. It's Broncos and a Browns team that's just devolved into a terrible season.

And somehow they keep surprising us. And they keep really providing some great moments in prime time that seems to have happened all year. And this game between James Winston slinging it around the yard and a suddenly dynamic James inspired Bo Nix was about 10 times more entertaining than I ever could have predicted. The most James Winston game that ever James Winston. Oh my gosh. There was a stat that I saw on Tuesday morning that perfectly encapsulated it. It was from Opta stats on Twitter. I want to make sure I give them the shout out.

James Winston threw for 497 yards against the Broncos, and Denver also had 171 interception return yards against him. So that's 668 combined passing yards plus the return yards off of his passes. That's the most by any quarterback in a single game in NFL history. That is the most James Winston stat of all time. Yeah, I can't remember who it was. I think it might have been Greg Rosenthal talking about this last night, where James's fate as an NFL quarterback should just be to be the backup or the bridge

for a team that otherwise would be boring. And so we just get an entertaining stretch of games or an entertaining season for a team in transition. And that should just be his fate for the next five years until he's out of the league. I completely support that. Because one of my prevailing thoughts last night, I had a few. One was, I guess Riley Moss is the best corner in the league, which we can talk about here in a second.

The second was, I cannot believe that we had to watch Deshaun Watson play football for this team for seven games. Even if the end result is a loss, James threw for 400. 150 yards against one of the best past defenses in the league, and the Browns for the first half of the year were completely unwatchable. It was a broken, unwatchable product. And even if you have the downsides of James Winston in this current situation, at least you get watchable, exciting football to go along with it.

And the fact that we were deprived of this for two straight months and got bottom of the Barrow quarterback play from this team is just an absolute, it's a tragedy. It's awful. It's like, honestly, it's the. oh, you know what, we can't put the rookie in because we want to be able to get good evaluations on everybody else. It's the inverse with the vet here in this situation. Look, the Eagles played the Browns during that seven-game stretch. So I had to force myself to watch the Browns offense for, you know, four games, three, four games.

I think they played in week five. And I don't, look, I got a new desk at home in my work from home space. I got a clean blood of my eyes bleeding from watching hours of that past game leading into that. I was pre-Nic Chubb, so you didn't have the run game element to really lean on. Not that that's really changed all that much, unfortunately, since his return. But just being able to see this offense come to life a little bit, even without Amari Cooper. I mean, Jerry Judy goes off. We'll talk about that.

But I think when you look at it, just seeing this offense come to life a little bit, just play with a lot more juice than what we saw from them in the first half. It's certainly nice to say you feel better about the rest of the guys on that team. You feel better about the rest of the guys in that team and potentially what they could look like in 2025 if they decide that they're done with the Deshawn Watson experiment. Because I think that was going to be a big question in the second half of the season for this team without Watson, was where are we going to land on this coaching staff, on Kevin Stefanski, on this front office? How should we feel about the Browns moving forward as we get to the end of the 2024 season?

And even if the wins and losses haven't been there, the fact that they look like a competitive team, there still looks to be buy-in, the offense is able to move the ball with a different quarterback. I mean, I feel a lot better about what the near-term future looks like for the Cleveland Browns now than I did a month ago. I don't know how you feel. Yeah, no question. I mean, it's just the fact that it's not as listless as it was because that's the thing. You're watching them and you don't feel any inspiration whatsoever from that side of the football. And I feel like you internally, if you're the defense, you feel that too, right?

And so when you see all those, now both guys and both sides of the ball are kind of, you know, working together now to now, look, the injuries are starting to pile up. up. So, you know, that's still negatively affecting them. But I think overall, just seeing the energy being injected into that building, I think that that's certainly something that they can't forget about going into this offseason as they try and make the, it's going to be a very difficult decision. And it's going to have huge cap ramifications for them. But I just don't envision a scenario where you can go back to Deshaun Watson. I just don't know how you can look the other guys in that locker room square in the eye and say that this is what's best for this organization moving forward. I would 100% agree with that. And the one bit of context, I think, is worth. mentioning if we're trying to separate the performance we've seen from James Winston over the last few weeks from what we saw from Rishaw Watson over the first seven games. James Winston's time as the starter has almost completely aligned with Jack Conklin coming back into the lineup. And so they have gotten protection and their offensive line has been healthier during this five, six game stretch since Conklin has been back than it was earlier in the season. There's still been a rotating

cast at left tackle. Jamina Fetti was in there yesterday. They've had some injuries there. Wyatt Teller's been in on the lineup but has been back over the last month or so. So the protection up front has been better than it was with Watson, but that's not the whole story. That doesn't explain the entire difference between what it was like watching this group with Watson a quarterback and what it was like watching them with James Winston. Yeah, I mean, the amount of turn downs that you saw every single, not even like just every single game, like every single possession where it's like, man, like I don't know, I can't explain why Deshaun doesn't throw this ball. I don't know what he's thinking here.

I look at look at this miss or look at this invited pressure here on this play. I mean, it was, it was a tough watch. And so I think we're all better for not having to put ourselves through that now moving forward. And what are you going to do as a coaching staff in that moment? What can you possibly say other than you have to throw this? And when it keeps happening, there's just nothing else you can change. There's nothing else you can do when the quarterback is hanging onto the ball and turning down open receivers. So nice to see them show a little bit of life on that side of the ball. On the other side, let's stick with there for a second. Are you at all worried about this performance from a Broncos defense that we were pretty excited about for a huge chunk of this year,

considering what they had done to some good offenses and what Vance Joseph Union has looked like, or do we think this is one bad game from Levi Wallace that you're willing to explain away against a, let's call it high variance James Winston-led Brown's offense. Yeah, I think that certainly you miss Riley Moss in that situation. And look, they still had Sartan on the other side. He gave up like one catch in man-to-man coverage against Judy.

And other than that, you didn't really see much against Sartan one-on-one. in single coverage. But I think overall, I'm willing to kind of look past this game from Denver's defense standpoint. We know what they can do from a pressure end of things. That showed up in this game. A number of guys showing up in terms of getting after James Winston. Jonathan Cooper made his presence felt.

Nick Benito made his presence felt. We know what Zach Allen has done throughout the course of this season on the interior and off the edge for them. So I think that they still have the horses up front to be able to get after you. We know that Vance Joseph is always going to turn that dial up from a pressure standpoint, from a stunt standpoint. So it's a lot to prepare for from a mental and physical standpoint when you go up against that defense.

I think you get Riley Moss back in the lineup. The safety play is probably a little bit more congealed by that point as well. They had some busts on the back end there from an assignment standpoint. Certainly that long touchdown to Jerry Judy would be at the forefront there. But I think when you look at that defense, I'm willing to look past it this week. Yeah. I'm excited to see what this will look like with maybe a tweak or two on the back end going into next year, considering what the core of this.

defense has been all season. It was nice to see Nick Benito get that sort of spotlight, a national spotlight, and have that sort of game considering what he's looked like this year. I know the sack numbers are really good, but beyond the sack numbers, when you watch him, that guy's just like a stick of dynamite. I mean, he's one of the more explosive twitchy edge rushers in the league right now. And it was funny, we talked about this coming into the season. They had like seven of those guys. You know, Baron Browning was still on the roster. They drafted Jonah Ellis, and I was just wondering how the rotation would shake out and what that would end up looking like.

And obviously, they trade Baron Browning. Jonathan Cooper himself takes a step forward. They sign him to a contract extension. Nick Benito has this monster season. And then you combine that with what they're getting from Zach Allen. And even the other rotational pieces on that defensive line, DJ Jones can still play. Yep. John Franklin Myers has had a really nice season for them.

I mean, it is one of the more impactful, disruptive groups in the league. But I do think Benito has kind of headlined that. and to see him have that sort of performance in front of a national audience, I think, is a good reflection of what an element of this Broncos defense has looked like for most of the year. Yeah, because I think for the casual fan, you're not looking at that list of names that you just rolled out, and you're saying you're overall impressed, right? But ultimately, when you're going and you're watching the film and you're getting an idea of what this group brings to the table, it's a bunch of tough matchups, right?

You know, when you have Benito who, by the way, like, this is your type of rusher. You know, I know that you and I have had discussions about like skill sets off the edge. Like this is your cup of tea with Nick Benito. I mean, he is, he's so compact. He's so explosive. He's so twitchy. He can turn the corner and he can close in a blur. I think when you look at Benito, how tough he is to block.

And you compare that with Zach Allen and John Franklin Myers, who are like those big kind of combo, seven technique, five technique, three technique types that can win from multiple alignments. When you have all those guys that have those differing skill sets, it's tough to prepare for, especially because they move them around. So if you are the left tackle for the Cleveland Brown, It's not like, all right, hey, I have to get ready to face, you know, Nick Benito for 60 snaps here in this game.

It's, I'm going to see 20 of Benito. I'm going to see 15 of Allen. I'm going to see 12 with Jonathan Cooper. I'm probably going to get, you know, Jayquine McMillan coming off my edge a couple times. You have to prepare for so much. And so the scouting report is so voluminous from that standpoint. It's a lot to take on as an offensive linemen.

When it comes to bendy speed rushers against power rushers, I feel like I've gotten to a place where I'm just that Larry David meme where I'm just grimacing trying to pick between them. Where I've landed here is that when you go to brunch with your wife or with people, are you like a sweet guy or a savory guy? You go pancakes or you go something a little bit more savory than that? I'm a little bit of both. It depends on the day. So I think I know where you're going here. This is where I'm going. I'm both. So I've just decided that I don't have to choose between the Nick Benito types and the Jaredverse types. I just want one of each. That's how I'm building this thing is I want a little bit of everything. Let's get to the both.

Nick's side of this. Yeah. I'm curious, not only just what you thought of Bo Knicks last night, but where the performance from Bo Nix last night fits into your read on him and what he has been for the Broncos this season. Yeah, I think that ultimately, look, it has not been all sunshine and rainbows for Bo Nix this year, but I remember even going back and watching the first couple of starts as we were still trying to get a grasp of, all right, how is he going to fit with Sean Payton?

Is it going to be all the Drew Bree stuff early on? What are they going to lean into? And honestly, like there were plays early on in the season where, you know, they're running dagger with a deep end cut, you know, from the outside and vertical routes in the inside to clear it out. And basically we're going to run the deep end cuts to Cortland Sutton. where I'm like, man, like, he wants to pull the trigger here, or he does pull the trigger here. And maybe like the timing was off with Sutton or, you know, hey, this one just went right through Sutton's hands or, you know, this one he just missed. It was there on film. And I saw he got a little bit gun shy as we got into midseason. And that's where like the Addot started to drop and everybody started to point, oh, this is what he was in college.

I think that we're starting to see now he's just playing a little bit loose, a little bit more free. He's still playing a little bit of a little bit of like young baker to him in terms of, you know, honestly, there's still some. like old baker to him too where you see like the the the the feet are so fast at times especially when he starts he feels like a little bit of pressure but that's to be expected with a young quarterback i think we're still seeing that but you know even to say like hey you know what they're running uh it's third and 11 you're backed up you're in the shadow of your own goalpost and we're running three vertical routes it's against an invert cover two one of uh jim schwartz's favorite coverges where you've got your vertical route matched up against a middle linebacker running the shoot in jordan

Hicks. Like, I'm, F it. I'm making this throw. He pulls the trigger to Marvin Mims, who, you know, we haven't heard of a peep from Marvin Mims for the majority of this season. Especially as a deep receiver, we have not heard of Pete from Marvin Mims this entire season. Yeah, and that's something we thought that he would, you know, this is the guy that

is Sean Payton's first draft pick when he took over in Denver was Marvin Mims. And so you go to him in that spot, Denzel Ward almost makes an unbelievable play, you know, overlapping as the, as the too high safety on that play. But an unbelievable throw by Nix in the, that situation. And you've got to, that's the confidence you want to be able to see from him. And it's honestly, it's slowly building. I know that in terms of looking at some of the next gen numbers, this was his fourth straight game generating positive EPA on those downfield throws. It was a career high, 12 and a half air yards per attempt last night against the Cleveland

Brown. So if that confidence starts to build, I think when you're starting to look at this Denver offense, because now when you get into this part of the season, it's always about what are the different ways that you can win? What are the different ways that you can, you know, strike fear and the opposing defense. And if you add this downfield element with some of the other things that we've seen from this Denver offense knowing what that defense can be, that gives them a little bit more teeth if you're getting into the wild card round. We'll see exactly how it plays out.

There's no doubt. And it's funny, my experience with Bo Nicks this year, the first game I really studied of his was the week five game they played against the Raiders. They had been so bad over the first month of the season that I was not really worried about the Broncos offense. And then they started to play a little bit better. So it's like, okay, let me sit down and watch this whole thing. And I watched that game against the Raiders, and I just did not enjoy the experience.

And it's funny because if you look at that game compared to almost all the rest of the games he's played this year, he'd checked the ball down more often in that game than any other start he's had this season. I think only 40% of his attempts in that game when at least five yards in the air. And you combine that, that propensity for checking the ball down with pocket movement that was concerning to me, where he's just bouncing in the pocket. He's drifting to his left. He's bouncing backwards as he's missing throws. And I was just like, oh, man, I don't know about this. And then the week later, they played the Saints on Thursday night. I don't think he played great in that game.

But then since then, he's been much better. And I think that last night was kind of a perfect encapsulation of every aspect of the Bowenick's experience. I think the looseness with which he let some of those downfield throws go, that wasn't normal. Like we haven't seen necessarily that side of it. The one across his body all the way back to the left, He threw two picks in this game. He probably could have thrown two more.

But other than that, other than a little bit more recklessness than we've seen, I think that what I'm impressed by is his athleticism really does stand out. And I think he plays with a looseness that's good, if that makes sense. Like his willingness to make throws on the move, I love what he looks like when he's making throws on the move on purpose, right? So if it's a boot or it's a sprint out or he's extending a play, with authority, like I'm on a full sprint to my right or left. I actually think he's a very natural, smooth, kind of twitchy thrower in those moments.

And that really stands out. That throw he made on the right and on third down in the shadow of his own goalpost, that really stood out last night. So that's a good thing. The problem for me is when he's making throws on the move where it's not in that sort of setting, where he's slowly drifting away from pressure, where he's bouncing back in the pocket. And it cuts both ways. because early in that game, they had a couple pressures

where he actually does a good job of sliding away from it in the pocket and still making a throw. The play that sticks out to me is that third down completion to Cortland Sutton on the big crosser on the first drive of the game. The issue is, I think too often that drifting in the pocket becomes a negative and not a positive. But you don't want to necessarily coach that out of him because the looseness that that's just kind of the cost to do in business with

is actually a positive of his game. So it's just, it's a mixed bag right now. But I just think that ability to make plays on the move and what he can do with his legs, overall, I think that's a good thing. And when you start combining that, like you said, with a willingness and ability to push the ball down field, I'm intrigued by him. Like, I've enjoying watching him. I think that he's doing a lot of good things.

We can nitpick on some of the weaknesses. But I think, like you said, he's still a young quarterback. And I could absolutely see a world where those feet settle down just a little bit. And the ratio in positive and negative starts to change. Yeah, honestly, you mentioned that big crosser that he hit the Sutton. And on the opposite side of that, they were lifting coverage with switch release concepts that had me going back to like the early Sean Payton, Marcus Colston, Jimmy Graham type of concepts where it's like, all right, like we're going to clear out one side of the field with these switch releases. We're have Darren Sprouls running wheel routes into the teeth of it. They're missing that aspect of it.

They need to get 100 yards from Julio McLaughlin last night. I don't know if that's going to be something that they can count on every single week. moving forward. But I think ultimately, yeah, I really like what we've seen now from Boe Nix, really over these last couple of weeks. The one thing that concerns me, and it's actually, it's funny because it's a similar concern I have about Jaden Daniels. We don't see a lot of forward and controlled pocket movement when things get dirty in the pocket. When things are dirty for him, we see him move backwards or to his left or right. And that's exactly kind of what we've seen from Jaden Daniels this year, which isn't necessarily surprising. You're a rookie, you know,

navigating those dirty pockets is one of the hardest things you have to get used to doing as an NFL quarterback. So that as we think about what this offense looks like for the rest of the season, that's the one thing I would come back to. Even after yesterday, Bo Nix is still dead last in the NFL per true media and EPA per dropback when pressured. When you can cause some of that antsiness from him in the pocket, bad things are still happening for the Broncos. and I don't know if that's something that gets solved by the end of a rookie season. I think you can explain it away as just this is a guy in his first year. He's still getting used to kind of how to settle himself in those moments. But that's one thing I would come back to when we're thinking about where the limitations of this team might be over the next eight weeks or so.

And that's what, I mean, they've done such a good job of keeping him clean. I mean, he's been one of the best in terms of like the volume of pressure. Like he just has not been pressured all that often so far this season. So huge credit to that offensive line. I mean, honestly, like, Garrett Bowles gave up one pressure last night to Miles Garrett, which I would not have a- He's been awesome this year. He's been awesome. And it's a contract year.

I know there was Buzz last off season. Like, oh, like, they're not really thrilled with Garrett Bowles. They might want to move on. They might draft a tack. Him and Sutton. Yeah. Just imagine the fact that we were like, we're two months removed from being like, I don't know, Garrett Bulls and Cortland Sutton.

Are they part of the solution or part of the problem? And both of those guys have been fantastic this year. I mean, look, Christian Darrisal got 26 million a year. Andrew, Andrew Thomas got 23. and a half. Like, my guess is he's not going to be up where like Penny Sewell and Tristan Worsewer with a jerk right around 28 million year. He's 30.

He's going to be interesting. Yeah, because he came in as an older prospect. He came in as a 24, 25 year old Garrett Bull. So I'll be interested to see what that contract looks like. My guess is, though, it's going to be north of Darrasaw. Like, you know, just in terms of inflation, it's going to be really interesting to see what he gets on the open market. The Broncos will have a decent amount of financial flexibility heading into next year, even with

the back half of Russ's dead money. I would invest in that. I would not walk into the left tackle wilderness when you've seen what this group can look like in past protection because, you know, we've talked about it a bunch. It's been one of the best past protecting offensive lines in the NFL. And I think that's one of the reasons that Bowenix has been kind of set up for success this year. All right, guys, before we get to the contenders, let's take one quick break here. All right. Let's get to the contenders.

Like we said, there are eight teams on this list. The eight teams were chosen by Las Vegas, not by me. This is based on Super Bowl odds. If your team is not included in here, it's not that I don't think that they're a contender. It's that the sports books do not think that they have a 25 to 1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl.

Let's start with, I don't know how we did this list. I just sent them to you and you sent them to me. First one on here is the Pittsburgh Steelers. What about the Pittsburgh Steelers is keeping you up at night as we head toward week 14? Well, I think the big thing going in, it's like, all right,

like how seriously should you take this team? Pittsburgh's 5 and O against teams with winning records right now. They're giving up 13.8 points per game against teams with winning records. They've been outstanding so far when the lights have been brightest for this team. And obviously, look, we know what the formula is, right? I mean, they're going to play great defense. They've got talent at all three levels of the field. And then offensively, it's Arthur Smith.

They're going to want to run the football. They're going to take their explosive shots down the field, outside the numbers with Russell Wilson. And George Pickens is going to dunk on guys down. the field. Like that that's what, uh, that's what this offense is going to be. And to me, like, for me, like my biggest concern with them, do they run the ball well enough, consistently enough for that to be like a, for that to be their true identity? And so when I look at it, I look at the numbers for them. And they're 23rd in both EPA per carry and success rate in the run game. They're 22nd in percentage of carries that see contact behind the line of scrimmage. They've got two rookies

working the interior who have done some really good things. I mean, Zach Frazier at center has been a, a really important piece for them. Mason McCormick, a day three guy out of South Dakota State has has coming in and he's giving them some good snaps. But again, I just think right now, they're not running the ball to the level that we see from some of the other contenders on this list. And for what they need to be, I'm concerned that that is just not going to be that rising tide that will keep them afloat. Because I think we're expecting that that past game is going to be volatile, right? It's going to be up and down just by nature. So they need the offense to be that steady force or they need the run game to be that steady force. And I just don't know if that run

game is quite to that level. I think that's a really good thing to point out why a consistent run game is more important for a team like this than it would be for teams that have a passing game that can act as an extension of their running game. That's just not what the Steelers passing game is. Although there's one element that jumped out to me against the Bengals that I do think is worth mentioning in that regard. But I was looking up the numbers when you were talking because I was curious what the

second half of the season numbers have looked like. They are 21st in rushing success rate since week six. And so even when Russ has come in and we've seen a shift. in the offense, they still haven't really been able to run the ball that consistently. So I do think that's worth pointing out. The passing game volatility, that's where I would go with this. Because we've seen their ability to push the ball down in the field, and we know the big plays are going to be there.

Without play action this year, Russ is 20th in dropback success rate. So I just wonder if it's, you're in a bunch of third downs, you're in a bunch of pure passing situations, is this passing game with Russell Wilson and with really not a ton of other pass-catching options outside of George Pickens, is that going to be enough to keep pace with the really good teams in the AFC? And some of the other kind of underlying numbers, I think, also reflect this. More than a third of Russell Wilson's passing EPA this year has come in max protection looks.

More than a third. So when they're blocking things up and taking shots down the field, great. That's a perfect way to do things. But again, when you're in some more pure passing situations, You can't use the amount of play actions they're trying to use. You have to be a little bit more precise in how you're trying to move the ball. Do they have that level of precision to the way that they can operate on offense? I still have some pretty real doubts about whether they do.

Yeah. I mean, look, this past week against the unsurious Cincinnati defense at this point in the season. My God. That's going to inflate a lot of the numbers that we're going to see from this passing game. I mean, the way that Russell Wilson attacked the middle of the field, we haven't not seen from him in recent memory. I think that when you look at the previous two or three weeks before that, we've seen that this past game has really struggled. They have not consistently been able to put up the yardage that they're looking for.

We know that they were in on guys like Brandon I. Yu. They were talking with other veteran receivers on the trade market, couldn't get anything done before the deadline of note. And so now, I mean, this is kind of the hand that they're dealt. And I just, I agree with you. I don't know that it's going to be there. And I almost like now I'm accepting the fact that this is going to be an up and down pass game. do they have enough from that run game stand? It's like it's like what we were saying.

Honestly, you know what it's like it's like Green Bay last year where Jordan Love and those young pass catchers is like, all right, like Love is making some Yolo throws and he is going to make some of these big time plays that he's going to turn the ball over at times. But the run game just wasn't quite like that top top level. We're going to swap out, we're going to swap out Jacobs for Aaron Jones and hopefully that that raises the tide. And now we've seen what that offense has looked like. I kind of wonder as we were doing the exercise,

for this. I wonder if Pittsburgh takes that next year and says, you know what? Like, you know, whoever that that big ticket running back is, are we able to make that splash? What does that do for the offense long term? I did wonder that as we were going through this exercise. I also think that you'd hope into next year you have one more year of experience for your offensive line. You know, Troy Fontenu is going to be part of that equation next year in a way that he is not now. So just one more year for all of that to crystallize up front, I think would be important. McCormick has been better than I've, I think he's improved as the season has gone on. I thought that early on as like a small school mid-round prospect, there were just some play strength

issues when I was watching him earlier in the season that I think are a little bit less prevalent now. I think the future for both him and Frazier is very bright, but I still think that overall, the offensive line is probably not like a finished product where they can really control and dominate games, even if the arrow is definitively pointed in the right direction. Yeah, I think that that's absolutely the case. And look, the injuries hit them hard early on and they've kind of weathered the storm there. Would have liked to be able to see what Faluno would have looked like as a rookie,

but we'll wait until next year. So far, I think over the last month or so, Brojerk Jones has been better than he was in the middle of the season where he was really, really struggling. So I think that's part of the reason that we haven't noticed the Fahnu absence as much as we were earlier in the season because Dan Moore has actually been okay at left tackle. The problem for them in past protection has been a right tackle for a majority of the year. and Jones has been a little bit better as of late.

And I think that's why it's been a little bit less noticeable as an issue for them. At least he could be the life coach for George Pickens on the field as well. Oh, my God. This is one of my favorite things from this past week. It's just like the fact that Broder Jones has to be the voice of reason and to tell George to kind of take it easy is just phenomenal. Unbelievable. The one element of the passing game that happened against the Bengals, that just not going to happen against other teams, the Bengals off ball linebackers at this stage just look like they're playing.

with cement shoes on. And so the ability to just consistently dump the ball to the backs four or five yards past the line of scrimmage on checkdowns and get 10 yards every single time you do that, don't think that's going to be a button you can consistently press against better defenses down the stretch in the same way they could last week against Cincinnati. Yeah, look, the Eagles play the Steelers in a couple of weeks. And so, you know, I've started my work in terms of studying the Steelers more in depth just in preparation for our show here at PHOI.

Yeah, that's not going to fly going up against this defense because they They've been so good at taking that away and in terms of not allowing yards after catching those scenarios. It's going to be a little different than what they saw against Cincinnati. Yeah. Zach Vaughn is essentially than the exact opposite end of the spectrum from what you've seen from the Bengals linebackers this year. Exactly right.

Let's get to the next one here. Minnesota Vikings. What about the Minnesota Vikings is keeping you up at night as we get toward week 14? Yeah. To me, look, you get into the past game with Sam Darnold, but to me it's specifically Sam Darnold under pressure. And I think when you look at from a past protection standpoint, they lost Christian Darrasaw a couple weeks ago or a few weeks back in that prime tag game.

Was that the Monday night game or a Thursday night game where he went down with injury? I think it was the Thursday night game against the Rams. I want to say that's when it was. Exactly. Yep. And it was right before half, if I remember right. And so he goes down. And then the following week, they go out and they trade for Cam Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Now, Cam Robinson, since that point in week 10 when he first got his start, he's allowed more pressure. since week 10 than Darrishaal did in all of weeks one through eight. He has not been a huge saving grace there for them in Darrashaw's stead. And when you look at the drop off with Sam Darno, look, we know that Sam Darnold, he's capable of making those boneheaded throws that just like, whether he's clean in the pocket and pristine or if he's under pressure. But I think when you look at his adjusted completion percentage and his overall completion percentage, his passer rating, all of the metrics he would look at to measure quarterback success down. to down, goes down pretty significantly when he's under pressure.

And so I think when you overall, when you look at this offense and you say, okay, that comes down. We haven't seen like a ton in terms of down the field from Justin Jefferson consistently. He's been more up and down this year. The run game has been up and down this year. The defense has come back to life a little bit compared to what we saw the first few weeks. It's all right. Well, if you're under pressure and you're not getting those explosives down the field,

I just that that is what really has me concerned about the long-term viability of this team. Yeah, I think being able to sustain drives and just have a consistent down-to-down offense has been more of an issue than you probably want it to be if you're a contending team. Mine is kind of adjacent to the pressure thing because I just think watching this team right now, I'm just worried about the quality of their fronts on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Darisaw part of this is huge. And I think beyond the past protection side of it, their inability to run the ball consistently right now because of the tweaks that have happened along the offensive line is something to keep in mind.

They are 20th in EPA per carry since week six. Part of that is losing Derisaw. The other part of it is that their right guard was very poor in pass protection before they swapped him out for Dalton Reisner. Well, Reisner's been better in past protection, but he isn't the run blocker that at Ingram was. So there are tradeoffs with all the decisions they've had to make. And I just think that their inability to be consistent either in pass protection or running the ball because of their play out front, that to me is in the back of my mind. And I would honestly extend this to the other side of the ball.

Because when they were able to just torment teams over the first four, six weeks of the season with some of these pressure packages, I don't think you really noticed the lack of individual talent, especially from a pass rushing perspective, of their guys along the defensive front. Now, I think that as teams have gotten a better sense for how to protect against them, as we've gotten some more cohesion with offensive lines as the seasons have gone along. That past rush plan and that pressure rate just hasn't been the same as it was earlier in the season. And now I think we're seeing some of the limitations from their individual pieces up front. This team was second in the NFL and EPA per dropback in weeks one through six.

They are 26th in over the back half of the year. And I wonder, you know, I don't know the answer to this, but what they did against the Cardinals last week, where they had one of their highest splits rates of the year and they were, playing more man coverage than they had all year. I think some of that was probably Cardinal specific. But I also think that at least some of it might have been, all right, we know that we need to turn up the heat a little bit more because how we were approaching this over the last three, four weeks, I think that teams had gotten a little bit of a beat on what we were trying

to do. Yeah. When you see Jonathan Gernard, chasing plays down the way we saw him this past week. I mean, he was a monster at times for them. I think he's great. Yes. Other than that? Yep.

Van Ginkles fun. But, you know, fun-ish. I think when you're looking at the rest of that group, honestly, like if you're a Vikings fan, what you're hoping for is that, all right, you get into the postseason, whatever the seating is by the time you get there, you're getting the playoff game plans from Brian Flores

that throw people out of whack. And that is the one that you're kind of hoping on, that you're leaning on to say, okay, we can scheme our way out. And offensively, too. Like Kevin O'Connell can scheme as well as anybody. can they scheme their way through the course of the postseason.

I do have faith in this coaching staff to be able to do that. I just don't know, again, if the talent will allow them to do that at this point in their team build. And honestly, I think that that is a very telling, illustrative, and reasonable place to be

with this Vikings team heading into week 14 of this season specifically. This was an early stage part of whatever that team build looked like. Yep. Right? I mean, this was, as they were moving on

and kind of reset, things. They got to spend a little bit of money this offseason, but next year they will have a lot of cash to throw around in free agency based on the way that their roster is structured. I think we always kind of understood this would be an intermediate step toward whatever the final version of the Kevin O'Connell, Quazzo dofomense of Vikings looked like. So the fact that that gap exists between structure the way the players are deployed and the actual talent on the roster, I don't think those two buckets are as disparate as they are in a place like washing. offense, for example, but there still is enough of a gap where you might see the talent

efficiencies as we get deeper into the year against really good teams. Yeah. And that's what was weird, just because you're in the year three of a regime. But when you have the quarterback change that they had, you're almost like kind of resetting your reset. And so they've had to do this on the fly. But again, this is still a team that is trying to work from a little bit of a talent deficit from where they were at just a few years ago.

Let's stick in the NFC North and go to the Green Bay Packers. What is keeping you up at night about the Packers here in early December? Yeah, I'm going to go to the line of scrimmage and I'm going to go to the pass rush. I think especially when you look at that front four. I do like what is some of the things that they've done, Jeff Halfley, the new defensive coordinator there. I think that they've been able to do some nice things in the back end. Certainly you've created a lot of turnover. Xavier McKinney's been a godsend for them and free agency.

But when you look at that front four, you know, right now going into Thanksgiving against Miami, the Packers defensive line ranked 13th in pressure rate the first four weeks of the year. and it's been a steady decline since that point. 22nd in weeks 5 through 9, 29th since week 10 in pressure rate. And when you look at that group from a personnel standpoint, Rishon Gary, good player. I mean, he's 25th right now in the NFL amongst qualifying defensive line with a pressure rate of just below 14%.

But they don't have anybody else in that front that's above double digits. The only team that has left. He's also not played like 20, he's not paid like the 25th best edge rusher in the week. So you're not getting your, and I will say too, I can say from seeing it live, a couple of his pressures were like unblocked, the offensive line didn't get off the ball and he came in, Scott Free. So a couple of those were kind of give me pressures as well. But obviously, they do count overall.

At the end of the day, though, the only team that has fewer pass rushers with double-digit pressure rate, the Atlanta Falcons, like you don't want to be in that group. So I think overall, for a team that's got these postseason aspirations, they need a little bit more from somebody up front. You know, Kenny Clark, we know, I mean, he's such a good player. I love watching Kenny Clark, but not giving them the past rush productivity that they have seen from him in years past. Kingsley and Ibarre, like, nice player, but not someone that you want to lean on to be like

that number two guy. They haven't not got enough at all from Lucas Van Ness, last year's first round pick out of Iowa. And so I think when you're looking at this group overall, to me, we've seen them up the blitz rate a little bit. I think that's something that they're, what you just. talked about with Minnesota and Brian Flores, that might be something that they need to do with Quay Walker. We know that the kid that they took in the second round this past year from Texas

A&M, like they've got some young pieces that are explosive that can get after the quarterback from depth. I think that might be something they might need to do a little bit more often here as they get into the postseason. I've really appreciated the proactive kind of experimental nature of what Jeff Hathley's defenses looked like. I didn't think they'd need to be that sort of defense, though. Of all the things I thought about the NFL coming into the year, some of them, a lot of people got wrong. You know, nobody thought Washington would be this on offense. A lot of people thought the Texans' offense would be one of the five best offenses in the league. Every NFL podcast ranked their top 10 offenses heading into the season. I think every person on

those shows had the Texans as a top 10 offense. So I don't feel bad about missing on what the Texans offense was going to be. The one take that I had coming into the year that I think has been the most off about any team is I thought the Packers defense would be good and potentially really good because of what their front looked like. And that wasn't, that's rooted in reality. I want to make that very clear. They finished seventh last year in pressure rate when bringing four, seventh. And you go back and what was, when I was having those conversations, the game that was looming

really large in my mind was the game that they played against the Niners in the playoffs. And they were in a lot of these five-o looks in that old version of their, defense. And across the board, you had guys that were affecting the quarterback. You know, Roshan Gary is able to do that. Kenny Clark, Carl Brooks, you know, Van Ness setting into year two. I thought that this would be the sort of pass rush that could kind of control games. And then you combine that with some of the stuff we've seen from Jeff Hathley. And I was like, all right, there's a chance that they can cook with this group. They went from a top seven pass rush from bringing four last year to a bottom six pass rush this year. The only teams that have

a lower pressure rate when bringing forward this season than the Green Bay Packers are the Jags, the Chiefs, which we'll talk about in a second. The Falcons, the Patriots, and the Panthers. Not good company. And it's not like they've been devastated by injury. I know Devante Wyatt has missed some time, but for the most part, this is just a group that I thought would control games that has been on the complete other end of the spectrum, and I could not have been more wrong about it.

Yeah. I was going through some of the numbers too. Like they're 26th in quick pressure rate. So even like some of the pressures they do get. Like Gary, he's got that ability to go from A to B in a flash. And we just haven't seen that enough. They've got the third most unblocked pressure. So like even the pressures they are getting,

I mentioned that earlier with Gary. Like even the pressures they are getting, it's a bust along the offensive line or they cut a guy free and he was able to get home. So they're just not getting enough from that group to consistently impact the quarterback. I totally agree. And I think that just the general concerns about the per defense of personnel period, right? So beyond the pass rush, the past rush isn't going to affect games. We still have a back seven with, if not holes, then a lot of inexperience.

You know, Javon Bullard, I'm excited about what he can be, but this is a rookie. Evan Williams, excited about what he can be, but this is a rookie. I think Quay Walker has played well since he got back from injury, excited about that. but these are all guys very early on in their career. And then the other spot I would keep coming back to, they're papering over that second cornerback spot. Even with Jaira Alexander in the lineup, they're trying to piece this thing together.

I think that they went with Nixon there because they wanted to get bowlered on the field. But unless you're playing a lot of coverages, you know, funky versions of cover two, things where you can kind of hide him a little bit, which they've done well, you're going to get exposed over time. So I just think combined with the past,

rush not having the teeth that you want, that also exposes some limitations with the defensive personnel, even if I actually am very enthusiastic about what the defense has looked like this season and the work that Jeff Hathley has done. Yeah, and that's what, and it's tough too because, you know, look, my eyes are always looking forward to the draft and everything, right? But you would say, all right, well, an influx of young talent, all this team does is spend first round picks on defensive players. You look at this group and they are chock full of guys that come in with draft pedigree. And at all three levels, you know, corner, safety, linebacker,

defensive end, defensive tackle, bunch of guys that were first round picks, second round picks. So continue to add to that. Yeah, it's going to be a new defensive staff. Hopefully the talent identification is a little bit better. But at some point, they got to start spending some of those assets on offense you would think.

So I'm interested to see how they approach that here this spring. Let's get to our next one here. The Baltimore Ravens. What is keeping you up at night? about the Ravens as we get to the home stretch. Yeah, I was, I was interested to see how I would go with this one, because obviously, look, the Eagles just played the Ravens. So I watched a ton of Ravens tape just a week ago.

And I would say if you're a Ravens fan, I know there's a lot of concern about the way the offenses looked two of the last three weeks, you know, against the Eagles and against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But at the end of the day, like, I still have faith in Lamar Jackson. I still have faith in Derek Henry. I still have faith in what they're doing from a structural standpoint. their numbers going into last week or astronomical and so many important areas. So for me, I am going to go to the other side of the football.

And we know that this group has given up so many explosive plays defensively. And I think that they hope, they think that by some of the personnel changes that they've made, you know, some of that can you clear it up. They've benched Marcus Williams. He was a healthy scratch this past week at safety. They cut Eddie Jackson. Isn't that crazy? Yeah.

I mean, some of the changes that they've made are pretty, especially considering what Williams was. for them a year ago. But they move on from Eddie Jackson midstream. He got cut last week. So they're saying, okay, we're going to play Kyle Hamilton. He's no longer going to be like a hybrid, like big nickel guy for us. He's going to play just as a deep safety to plug that hole for us. We're going to have Marlon Humphrey.

He's going to be the full-time nickel. We're going to take Brandon Stevens. And he's still going to play outside and base. But we're going to play a little bit more dime. Hulk shift inside a little bit more often. Trudevius White. We just picked him up at the trade deadline. He's going to play a lot more often for us on the outside.

and we still have Nate Wiggins, so we spent a first round pick. Here's what I would say to that. The Rams moved on for Chedavis White. The Rams haven't able to stop anybody in the past game. Yeah, they're chock full of cornerback talent. And look, you will never find a bigger fan of Tradavius White than me. I love Tradavius White, but injuries have taken their toll. His feet, his leg cannot take him where his eyes and his mind want to go at this point.

So he sees things pretty well. We saw that this past week, even against the Eagles and even going back the week before. but I think ultimately, obviously his best days are behind him. Nate Wiggins, very aggressive. He's got that man coverage skill set, but teams are going after him

from a double move standpoint. I think that will continue to be the case. Teams are still going to be able to go after him. The route discipline is not there in terms of just him being able to match those routes, especially at the intermediate area. Ardarius Washington is a nice player. He's playing on a full-time basis for them next to Hamilton,

but not a guy that I think you can say, all right, we're set there with our Darius Washington. And Brandon Stevens, like, he's had nice moments for this team since he's been drafted out of SMU, but this year he's really, really struggled. And even though, yes, they've made these other changes in the secondary, he still plays the lion's share of reps at left corner, both in base and then even still in some of these nickel looks. And so I think when you look at this group, yes, they've been a little bit better over the last couple of weeks at preventing those explosive plays.

They haven't given up, they didn't give up a passing touchdown for two weeks before this past week against the Eagles. But I think when you look at this group, there's still a lot to be concerned about as you go into the postseason against some of the heavyweights that they will face once they get there. I think all of those concerns about the downside from some of those Stevens isn't young, but Wiggins is like a younger defensive piece. I totally get that. To me, the most telling move is sliding Hamilton back into that deep safety role. Because that to me is a signal. We're just in whole plugging mode. We're just trying to stop the leaks because you know that you are making your defense. less dynamic and less dangerous by moving him back into that role. But at this point, it feels like they have no other choice because of the explosives that they've kept giving up.

So I think that's definitely worth thinking about. I want to ask you about the offense just very quickly because for, you know, the two games we've really seen the Ravens offense struggle in this year. We saw them play against teams that I think just do a great job squeezing things in zone coverage. The Steelers do a lot of it from single high. And I think they did a great job in that game. You know, the Eagles obviously are structured a little bit differently.

Was there anything about the Ravens passing game that you felt like the Eagles were able to get a little bit of a handle on that you think could signal maybe further struggles in the back half of the year that we didn't see for the first half of the season? Well, I think that what we've seen from Fangio's unit over the course of this season is that they've been so good at preventing those explosives down the field at like an insane rate since week six since the Eagles came back from the buy and obviously the Ravens. I mean, they were number one an explosive play rate. That's what their passing game is. Yes. say it's all those huge chunk plays.

And so look, that was going to be good versus good in this matchup. And they still had their, I mean, Zay Flowers opening drive had a 40 yarder outside of structure. They were able to hit one or two of those kind of plays. But overall, the Eagles were able to take that away and kind of force Lamar to take what was underneath. But that's been the identity of this Eagles defense all season long is, all right, we're going to take away the explosives.

We're going to force you to check down. And then we're going to be maniacs tackling those guys and not allowing yards after catch. Cooper DeGine had that, uh, the huge hit on Derek Henry in the flat. And that's kind of been what this group has been over the course of the last couple of months defensively. Uh, that is easier said than done. Uh, I think when you, when you look at the other defenses trying to copy that, but I think ultimately, the other thing in this game, I was just asked on the, the PHOI Eagle show, you know, I was talking with Zach Berman and Boeuf. They said, what adjustments did, uh, Vic Fangio make over the course of the game? Because the Raven

scored on their first two possessions and then they punted on their, uh, the next couple. And then they some missed field goals. I said, well, look, Lamar missed Isaiah likely wide open on a three-level stretch, intermediate route. It was a sail route wide open, overthrew him. Then on another third down, on the next drive, he put one in the dirt that was going to Zayflowers, just completely flat out, missed him in the flat that would have gone for a first down. Like, there was a fumbled snap on a shotgun that set that, that set another drive back, right? So ultimately, like the Eagles got a little bit of luck. You had some where they were able to come out and out execute and were able to get home. You had some nice coverage sacks, the missed field goals. And that's how you get

12 points in the first three quarters and, you know, 14 minutes of the game. And so I think ultimately, yes, there are some things that other teams can replicate, but also, like, it helped that Lamar did not have his best day on Sunday, too. I think that's absolutely right. And then those two plays, you mentioned, the likely miss sell route and then the one on the dirt to flowers, those are the ones that kind of stuck in my mind as we were talking about that game on Sunday night. It's funny, you never thought you'd arrive at this moment with Omar Jackson, but this is kind of where I am. I think he needs to run more. Yeah. If teams are going to take away those chunks, because that's exactly what the Steelers did as well.

They're just getting so much depth, and we're just going to make you try to check the ball down. That's how teams have defended really explosive downfield passing games over the last couple years. Think about what teams were doing against the dolphins in the back half of the last couple of seasons. We're going to pack the paint. We are not going to let you push the ball down the field. Well, for the dolphins, that's a little bit more difficult. You have fewer answers. For the Ravens, one of your answers to that sort of defense is, well, I'm just going to take off more.

And if he needs to scramble now five, six times a game because of the depth that collective pass coverage units are getting, I actually think that's a reasonable answer for something the Ravens can try to trot out. That's more difficult against the Steelers, who've been the best defense in the NFL against Scramble's the entire year. But I think against other teams, that is one potential thing that the Ravens can meet this with to pivot off of some of the struggles we've seen from them recently. Yeah, because they've leaned into Lamar from like a design run game standpoint. He had twice as many explosives as any other quarterback on non-scrambles this season going into this past week's game. He didn't really do that here against the Eagles. And then also, I don't know if you saw this, but Lamar said that his mom was getting on him about how he needs to run more and how there are lanes there.

I think I'm like, man, that's rough. I'm calling you up with that level of critical analysis. But I think when you're looking at Lamar, yeah, I think that that's an area where they can certainly afford to push that button a little bit more often. Mine with the Ravens, again, beyond sort of the downfield passing game struggles and what teams are doing to take away from that. And like you mentioned on the defense,

the kicker is keeping me up at night. Like, this is not a complicated thing. You have the greatest kicker of all time who's been one of the worst kickers in the NFL this year. And I think the biggest thing when you consider Justin Tucker's struggles is they're coming against the backdrop of a season where guys are banging.

in 55, 60-yard field goals like it's absolutely nothing. When so many guys around the NFL are starting to look like Prime Justin Tucker, it's a little bit more obvious when Justin Tucker has regressed. And I think that that's what we've seen. You just, you need somebody who's going to be able to bang a 55-yard or for you in tough circumstances deep into the season when every other competitive team seems to have one. And that's just not something that the Ravens can tap into. And I don't know what it is.

I'm not a kicking expert. I have no idea what would go into something like this. But it does feel like he kind of is as a yips. Like for early in the season, I think a lot of his misses were coming left. And then on Sunday, he pushes one right because I'm sure he's overcompensating as somebody who knows nothing about kicking.

But as somebody who's played a lot of golf, like I think that's probably where I would land. Yeah. And that's kind of what it feels like right now with Justin Tucker. I mean, it looks like me on the T-box for sure. But I think when you're looking at, at this team, they can't afford to have those kind of games where you miss three kicks.

And look, it's an all time great. Especially against good teams. Yeah. And that's what this is a team with those kind of late postseason aspirations. You can't go into a game against the Buffalo Bills and miss two field goals in an extra point. You can't go into a game against the Chiefs and do that and hope to win. But come hell or high water, they have to figure it out.

But it's a really difficult decision and discussion to have because he's a. an all-time great because he's a guy that's going to be, you know, probably a franchise Hall of Famer. I forget what they do down there. If it's a ring of honor or whatever it is, but certainly a guy that's going to go down as one of the better ravens of this era. That's a tough discussion to have. Speaking of the Buffalo Bills, let's get to that Buffalo team. What is keeping you up at night about the Buffalo Bills as we get to the home stretch? I was, I had actually like the most trouble with this team of Pegson. That's what she said. Yeah, this one was really difficult for me. And I almost kind of landed like, I don't know,

like regression because Josh Allen is 20 and two in December and January regular season games going back to the 2020 season. So the last four years, this guy has been unbeatable this time of year. They've got one team left on the schedule this year with a winning record. Alan's humming. They've got the best turnover differential in the NFL, the point differentials through the roof. This was something actually just after Sunday. I saw this. This was from Joe Marino does a great job talking about the Buffalo bills. The bills have won seven in a row. And in those six, seven wins, five different guys have led the team in receiving. Ray Davis twice, Khalil Shakir twice, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox, Keon Coleman. Not on that list is Amari Cooper. Not on that list is Dalton Kincaid, who's been banged up. So at some point, like, all right, you probably figure those guys are going to start to get up to speed. And if not, they're still figuring it out. We know that they can beat you on the ground as well. Their identity as a smash mouth running football team is not something I would have envisioned three, four years ago with the future of Josh Allen and the bills. But,

that's where we are right now. I think when you look at this group defensively, think about all the guys that have been hurt for this group. When you're looking at Ed Oliver, Von Miller, Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Terran Johnson, Christian Benford, Taylor Rap, have all missed like significant portions of the season and a bunch of no-name guys have come in

and made plays consistently for this defense. Sean McDermott is one of the best coaching jobs of his career. It's tough for me to find a flaw with this group. Honestly, when I looked at it, I said, all right, from a metric standpoint, everything looks pretty good. Let me look at it from a personnel standpoint. When you get into a shootout in the postseason, you're going head to head with my homes and with these other teams in the conference,

do you ultimately feel great if it's Resul Douglas and Christian Benford on the outside going up against whoever the other top dogs are at wide receiver? I don't know. That would be the one thing that would give me pause. Now they've been pretty good so far this year. See, I like those guys. That's not what I would be worried. worried about. But that's where that's where I struggled. But then also, too, when I look at

all right, who are the top receivers in the AFC, Jemar Chase isn't going to be in the postseason. Tyree kills not walking through that door. So, Gary Wilson, these guys are all out. So like, who are the top receivers that they're going to face in the postseason? Like, that's why I ultimately kind of struggled outside of like, all right, maybe Josh Allen having one of those like boneheaded games where it's like, man, like, I don't know what he was doing on that throw. This is, it's a, it's a really good team right now. But there hasn't been many of those this year. I know. He's taking really good care of the ball. I think he's playing some of the best ball he's ever played. And you can combine that with a team that can assert itself on the ground. I mean, it is really a sort of physical, dynamic, multiple team on offense that can hurt you in a bunch of different ways. So I think on offense, it's hard to find one. On defense, I would land on two that to me are very nitpicky, similar to you. I think I had a hard time landing on something I felt good about. But these are two places I would go. The first, Run 4 is a good but not great group.

Yep. I think that Greg Rousseau is playing at like... Really, come on. There's so many good eddressers in the league that I think it'd be hard to put him on an all-pro team. But if we're talking about guys who've taken one of the biggest steps this year, just because he's been healthy for a good majority of the season when he hasn't been in years past, there's been kind of a falloff. Even when he's been on the field, you know, he had a high ankle one year.

And it just, it seems like he's never been able to put it together for 17 games. He's having the best season of his career. I think he's a really good player. Getting Von Miller back over the last couple weeks and just having him be able to play 18 to 20 games or 20 plays as a designated pass rusher, that's helpful. But overall, it's not a group that really scares you from a pass rushing perspective. Ed Oliver's been banged up. He hasn't quite been the same.

You know, the interior players, there's not really a pass rushing force among that group other than Greg Rousseau and like whatever splash play you might get from Von Miller. Epinessa hasn't really had a great season. So that group overall, it just doesn't scare me when we get deeper into the season, right? But so you're playing the Chiefs. And let's say they put DJ Humphreys in the lineup and you feel good about all five guys on the Chiefs front. Are you going to be able to get enough pressure playing against Patrick Mahomes in the AFC championship game? That would be one thing I would come to.

And the other one, which isn't really a problem against the Chiefs, but could be a problem if you had to play against the Ravens, I still worry about the safeties on this team and run support. They have the second highest explosive run rate allowed in the NFL. And the game that really sticks in my mind as I think about this is watching the game they played against the Colts, where Jonathan Taylor is just ripping off these explosive runs. Because DeMar Hamlin, for all of their ability to kind of fold him in to what they're doing coverage-wise, where you don't really notice some of the deficiencies, when you see those guys try to tackle in the open field and take angles on explosive backs, that has been a. consistent problem this year. So that that is like the most nitpicky thing is are they going to give up two 25-yard runs in a big game? But that's kind of why I would have come back to with this team because of how well they're playing right now. Yeah. Honestly, when I looked through this whole group,

this was the group where this was the team where I felt best about, I think, moving into this stage. And we know how fast things changed. So two weeks from now, if we had, yeah, you would have said that about the Lions two weeks ago. It might feel a little bit different. But I have to love what they've done up to this point in the season. Let's stick in the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs, what is keeping you up at night about the Kansas City Chiefs? Really quickly. The most one possession wins by an eventual Super Bowl champion in a season was nine.

It was done twice by the 1986 Giants and the 2015 Broncos, the Peyton Manning led Broncos. The Chiefs already have nine of them this year with plenty of season left. So plenty of time here for them to break that record. and then eventually see if they can win the Super Bowl. Look, at the end of the day, I mean, you referenced it earlier, the defensive line and the pass rush, and then the offensive tackle play. Both sides to the line of scrimmage,

give me pause for the viability of this team once you get into the postseason. They're the only team in the NFL right now to have two guys in the top 12 in terms of overall pressures. Wanié Morris has not been very good. He's been credited with 40 pressures allowed this year. Joanne Taylor with 32.

You mentioned how they went. and they signed DJ Humphreys. We'll see how long it takes to get him completely up to speed. The rookie second round pick, Kingsley Suo, Mataya has not been good. He's clearly not ready right now for the NFL to start right now. So ultimately, Patrick Mahomes has not looked comfortable for the majority of this season, and you're starting to see that the negative effects of that pressure really show up, especially over the last several weeks.

And then defensively, I mean, Chris Jones is in double-digit pressure rate, but everybody else is in single digits. They're not getting enough from Carl Aftus right now. Mike Dana, who's been like a nice, like, movable piece. He's fun, but he's not like that kind of guy that you want to lean on. It's kind of what we were talking about with Ani Bari earlier. I think when you're looking at this group, they're missing that next guy. And you hope that that would, I think the hope was, all right, like, that's going to be Charles Omenahue.

Time will tell if that's going to be the guy. But going back to the earlier discussion with Minnesota, look, if you're a chiefs fan, that that's why I think it's taking us so long to say like, oh, you got to count them out. because once they get to the postseason, is it Andy Reid, Patrick McHolmes, Travis Kelsey on one side, and like playoff version of Steve Spaggolo and Chris Jones show up and then what, right?

And then we're back to where we started the year. It's a really tough team to figure out. Here's what I would say about that. Last year, even when the offense was struggling, the defense was playing at a really high level for most of the season. That has not been the case this year. This team is 27th in EPA per dropback in the second half of the year in week seven through 13.

You're feeling it. And I think you're feeling it on two fronts. And my answer to this, by the way, is that the defense just isn't able to carry the weight of an offense that's struggling a little bit like they could last year. And I think that starts with the past rush, like you mentioned. They're one of the worst pass rushes in the league when they send four. When they're sending extra bodies, we know that they can dial it up. But if they're having to rush four, it just they're not making the impact that you need to.

And because of that, you're seeing the deficiencies in the secondary. you're seeing what the shortcomings of that other outside corner spot look like right now. And so I just don't know if Charles Aenehu is going to solve that. Dropping him in is going to be enough to get that pass rush to a place where you feel a little bit better about the talent that you have on the back end. Yeah, it's funny. The way you phrased it in terms of like, I don't think if the offense is good enough to lift the defense when they're down. I would say it's like the inverse too. like the defense isn't doing enough for the offense being down.

That's what I would say. Yes. You could work on both sides with this team. And I think that ultimately, like if you're looking at half last full, I'm looking at Chris Jones, can he turn it on to lift that entire defensive front? He still has the fastest get off of any defensive tackle on football per next gen. He has more quick pressures than any defensive tackle on football per next gen. If he has like another gear that appears in the playoffs,

It's a tough ask. To go from, I know. We know you're already one of the best defensive players in the league. Can you just play a little bit better? Can you just put all 11 guys on your back and not just the three there line down? Can you put all the other 10 on there as well? Yeah, we'll see.

I mean, it's a team where struggle with how to talk about them in the way that you alluded to just because you don't want to count them out. You don't want to write them off. There's always a chance that a switch could flip as we get into the playoffs. But I think there are enough questions about where this team. team is to have some real doubts about their ability to do that this year and the way that we've seen in years past, especially last season. Yeah. Next one here, I'm going to let you take this one because this is the team that you know far better than I do. The Philadelphia Eagles, who you think

about, talk about for 20 of your 24 hours of every single day. What is the weakness for the Philadelphia Eagles that is keeping you up at night? Well, this one is fairly cut and dry because nothing on defense is keeping you up at night. And you can't be questioning. the run game and Seekwan Barkley with what they're doing on that phase of it. So you can only go to the pass game. And I think ultimately you look at the pure dropback pass game with Jalen Hertz and with this with this group of pass catchers, which look, coming in, you say, all right, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, Dallas Goddard, feel good. You're you're off and running. But all three guys have missed chunks of this season. And we've seen what that looks like when they don't have that full

allotment of pass catchers. AJ Brown is awesome. Devante Smith is awesome. Dallas Goddard is awesome. But he's now, it looks like he's headed to his second IR stint of the season. I don't know. It sounds like it's not like season ending, but he's going to miss a chunk of time now. Devante Smith has now missed two games with a hamstring injury. We'll see when he gets back into the lineup. I think when you look at this group so often early in the season and going back to last year, it's a lot of, it's what we were talking about with Pittsburgh and Russell Wilson. It's low probability throws where you're asking those guys to make superhuman plays. Devante Smith is an outstanding ball winner. AJ Brown, as good as,

it gets in the league. Dallas Goddard has the ability to go up and over guys as well and he's great after the catch. They are capable of making these plays. Steph Curry can make a shot from anywhere on the court. You don't want every single three-pointer from Steph Curry to be from beyond half court. You want it to get up to the three-point line. It doesn't need to be this hard all the time. And so what we've now seen over these last few weeks, look, in this past game against the, let me pull it up real quick. This past game, Jalen Hertz completed 11 passes against the Baltimore Ravens. He keeps 11 passes really quickly. screen to Sequan Barclay, under center play action, bang, throw to AJ.

Shotgun play action to Jahan Dodson, RPO to AJ, RPO to Dallas Goddard, under center play action, rhythm throw to AJ Brown, one three-step rhythm throw to AJ outside the numbers, another three-step rhythm throw to AJ Brown, RPO, check down, then a five-step mesh route on third and seven. Right? Not a lot of heavy lifting there from Jalen Hertz on those completions. To me, when I look at this offense, the only time where you're really rolling the Nice. And we saw this going back to last year as well, is, hey, you know what, we're going to line up. It's going to be two by two. And this is where this is the school that Nick Siriani comes from,

because think about where he's played or where he's coached rather, Indianapolis. You know, they had Andrew Luck and they had the veteran quarterbacks with the Chargers. This is the school that he came from. Frank. My theory is that Philip Rivers was a bad influence on Nick Siriani's coaching future. I truly believe this. And look, and he learned from Frank Reich, who did this with Peyton Manning. And that's the way that Manning always operates. We're going to go two by two. We're going to be completely static, no motion whatsoever. And I'm going to read the defense, be the sheriff before the line is there, before the

snap. And if it's zone, if it's too high, we're going to go to this side. If it's one high, we're going here. If it's man, we're going this side. Whatever the read is on any given play, the problem is that that's not Jalen Hertz's like strength as a quarterback right now. Right. And as he's still developing in that area, that's where we see the most inconsistency is when

they line up and say, hey, know what, we're going to run snag to the right. we're going to run double slant. We're going to run tosser to the left. Jalen, make the right pre-snap read and get where you need to go. Because if you make the wrong post-snap read or if you don't like what you got on one side, by the time he would get over to the other side, that plays busted out. The timing is all thrown off, and that's when the scramble drill happens. And that's where we would see the inconsistencies with this offense time and time again.

And you're just rolling the dice. Is Jalen able to make a play as a scrambler or is he not? And I think they've dialed that all back lately. But now it's starting to get into the point where, all right, he completed 11 passes. Like, if they get into a shootout with a really good defense or a really good offense in the postseason, are they going to be able to lean on Jalen Hertz in that moment? Saw it in 2022 where, look, he stepped. He was outstanding.

Like that game that he had against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl is not talked about enough nationally. He was nails in that football game. It's the best game he's ever played. And he played it in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. It was ridiculous. And it's not that that's the thing where they got to do it. It is so divisive here in the city in Philadelphia with this fan base when it comes to Jalen Hertz and this topic. Because for some, it's like he is, he's terrible.

He's you can't win with this guy. And with everyone else, it's everything else's fault. As is always always the case, it's somewhere in between. Yes, he struggles at times making those reads. It's not that he can't do it. We've seen him do an outstanding job of, you know, reading things out and attacking the soft spot in cover two, defeating a disguise. Dan Quinn would throw all kinds of stuff with him when he was at Dallas

and he would find ways to be able to make him pay. We've seen him do it. He just, he's not, he doesn't do it as consistently as you would like. And so that to me is the one area for this team. You would say, all right,

going in, he went out and he outduled Joe Burrow a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but we know what that defense is like. It's not, it's not a, a model for success in the NFL right now. When they go up against a great defense, and he has to throw the ball, you know, 20, 30 times.

What does that look like for this offense? We know what it's capable of, but when it's required, will he be able to come through? I think that's exactly the right place to land because typically now when they're in like third and seven, there are two options. I'm going to throw a one-on-one ball to AJ, whether it's a hitch or a comeback or something where he's able to win a match up on the outside or I'm going to scramble. Those are the two answers that they have right now. And I think that you want to see them have a few more.

And I do think there are small wrinkles within the offense that are indicative of the steps they've taken under Kellan Moore that I was like, okay, I like that. I didn't use to see that, but I like that. The play that I would go back to, we talked about on a Sunday night show, you send Covey in motion, you have some horizontal stretch that way. You go under center play action with that big crosser from A.J. Brown. That is not a play the 2023 Eagles ran. I want to see more of that. And I do think that early in the season, it felt like there were some more stacks, there were some more bunches, there were a little bit more motion. There was a little bit more. Manuele three. manufactured separation. And I think that when you get into these high leverage moments on third and eight deeper into the season, if you're not trying to tap back into some of that stuff, I think that you're making things unnecessarily difficult on your quarterback in the biggest moments of the game. Yeah. And it does not, again, it doesn't need to be that hard all the time for a guy that, yeah,

like capable of making ridiculous throws. Accuracy is not a flaw in Jalen Hertz's game. Like this guy, he can make. It's the best part of his game. He can make every single. throw, but he invites a lot of pressure and he's done a really high rate this year. That has been one of the issues with him just. And again, that goes back to like him reading things out consistently. He's just not doing it at a high enough level. Honestly, one of the things I'd love to see more going back and

going back to week one, we saw it was like more of the like full field like pure progression throws. So that Saquan Barkley wheel route touchdown against the Green Bay Packers in Brazil in week one, I was like, yes, this is this is perfect where it's all right. That's what they were trying to sell us in the offseason. Yeah. that this was going to be more pure progression. We weren't going to put ourselves in these rigid little boxes pre-snap by having to pick these plays based on what we thought the cover show was going to be. Teams aren't doing that anymore, and they're not doing it for a reason.

They're not doing it because of the defensive coordinator that coaches that side of the ball for you. But we thought this is what this past game is going to look like, and they just, they don't do it nearly enough to the point that, all right, well, now you're seeing him consistently go through and make those kinds of plays. Even now, you know, I mentioned like, oh, the one three-step rhythm throw. It was a hitch route outside the numbers to AJ Brown. That was one of two completions that didn't have, it wasn't an RPO or play action for Jalen Hertz in this game.

So again, you get into the other one, the high low. Yeah, they ran that rap concept against cover two where Roquant Smith opens up to the other side and you throw the inbreaker to AJ behind it. Perfect execution. Great way to attack Tampa 2. But that was it. It's those two throws. And everything else was, all right.

play action, bang a skinny post to A.J. Brown or a glance route to A.J. Brown. Not enough of those other types of throws where if teams keep them honest and they get them off schedule, which could happen. Look, at the end of the day, this offense is inevitable because of the talent, right? That's what they're kind of leading on. Defensively, we're going to allow 16 points a game, 18 points a game, 21 points a game, and our talent's going to win out on the offensive side. That's the formula right now. Now it's a matter of will that sustain once you get to the post. season. Yeah, it's a formula that is working because I would bet on that talent too if I'm the Eagles, but I think some of the limitations we're talking about are very real. Last one here, it's the Detroit Lions. I think we both have the same one for this. I'm going to list off the thing that's keeping me up at night about the Detroit Lions as we get to the back half

of the year. Ready? Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Derek Barnes, John Kaminsky, Alex Anselaun Anselaunny, Malcolm Rodriguez, Efei Melifonel Fonel Mewkeye Wingo, Jalenreves, Maven, Enis Rakesstra, Carlton Davis has missed the past couple games. Josh Pascoe and Levi-Oenzurike, both were not practicing earlier this week. It's not good. That's what's keeping me up at night about the Detroit Alliance.

It's not any more complicated than that. Yeah, and for a team that they're doing all kinds of fun stuff from a like a pressure standpoint. They're still up there. Like even after losing Hutchinson, they're still doing a nice job of being able to create consistent pressure. They play a ton of man coverage. So, hey, we're going to keep it simple on the back end

and we're going to be funky on the front end. And we're going to try and create it's the New Orleans model. It's the Saints model. That's what they've done down there for a long time. When you lose these guys up front, it becomes tougher to be able to live that way. They're like hanging on by a thread right now. I mean, you look at some of the names that were playing last week. And look, I watch a lot of guys coming out of college going to the NFL.

There are always players like every summer. I'm like, oh, man, I've never heard of that guy before. Like, that's fun. It's rare that you get to like October, November, December, and there are multiple guys on a defense or I'm like, I have no idea who this is. Not a big Ezekiel Turner, Stan? Yeah, like, you know, even though I'm like, yeah, he might have gone to UNLV. Maybe.

I'm like, oh, like, I'm not sure. Let me go, let me go check it out. But like, I have it written down. There were like three or four names and they're too deep right now where I'm like, man, like, I couldn't help you. And so that's just, that's a tough needle to thread as you get into this time of the year. Offensively, like, I mean, Taylor Decker is on the injury report this week. Like, God forbid, this starts happening on the.

other side because, you know, there's depth concerns when you get into some of those areas, too. So defensively right now, yeah, it's hanging by a threat. All right. We're going to take one more quick break and then we're going to get back with this week's ball knower and we're going to get out of here. All right. It's time for the ball knower this week. For those of you guys who are unfamiliar, three questions for our guests.

The first one, what is something that you know you know about the NFL or college football because you're a draft guy as we get into December? I think right now, Robert, I mean, it's our father's NFL again. It's our parents, it's the NFL of a previous generation. If you cannot run the ball with consistency on your terms, then it's going to be tough to take you seriously as a playoff contender, as a championship contender. I don't think it's ever been more true for us than it is because you and I are about the same age than it is right here this year.

Look, if you go. 100% agreed. Yeah. If you look at like EPA per rush and just the first half of games, because you know, like run numbers, like for winning teams that can get wonky if you're looking purely at a volume stat standpoint. But eight of the top 10 teams are playoff teams. The teams that we talked about for the majority of this podcast. So I think when you're looking at it right now, if you don't have that element,

if you don't have that club in your bag to be able to assert your will with the run game, it's going to be very, very difficult for you to win once you get into December, once you get into January. And these are things that, you know, coming up, the coaches that I learned from, and the old people in my family that would talk about the game like oh yeah okay yeah sure sure yeah but it's all about passing the ball that's not the case this year you need to be able to run the ball if you're going to win here in the postseason what i've been really impressed by and just i think is notable obviously rushing consistency is important you'll get a team like the ravens and a team

like the eagles they had rushing consistency in previous iterations of this thing the eagles and ravens have very good rushing infrastructures the lions did probably even before jimier gibbs got there The difference now, in a world where it's harder than ever to hunt out explosive plays through the air, do you have a running game that can give you those explosive plays? And I think the teams that have been able to tap into that specifically, those are the best offenses in football. That's what the lions are like because of what Gibbs has given them. That's what the Ravens are like because of what Derek Henry has given them. And that's what the Eagles are like because of what Saquan-Barkly has given them. The Saquan-Barkly touchdown last week is a perfect example.

One, it's a cool wrinkle to see them pulling my lot on some of these plays. and just folding in more gap scheme stuff to what they're doing. It makes total sense to weaponize your ridiculous offensive line. But if you go back and you watch that play, if that's DeAndre Swift, it's a six-yard game. But because it's Sequin, it's a 25-yard touchdown. And I'm open to this discussion, and we don't have to have it now. But this idea of how valuable running back can be, I think that there are a lot of moments where that offensive line of Philadelphia is awesome. Seekwon makes them better.

like the vision, some of the things he's able to seek out. You watch some of the cutbacks. He's seeing lanes and slivers that a lot of other players wouldn't be able to. So just the overall combination of factors that lead to run games like this. If not a requisite part of an elite offense, it is a viable engine of an elite offense right now. And I think that we have seen that all over the league. And not to make it a Sequan Barkley discussion, but one of the other things I thought of as you were talking about that is it's also been we've seen Seekoine come the other way because what was one of the big knocks on him, not just with the Giants,

but even at Penn State was he was a big game hunter. He was going to, he was going to try and bust things outside. It wasn't there. He'd be a little bit frustrating with taking those runs outside of structure. Here, and it showed up in week one, he is so much more disciplined and trusting of the scheme in front of him where now, you know, the plays where he would normally like chatter his feet and try and cut back, he's just putting his head down and getting seven yards. And that's, to me, like those dirty yard runs, those have been just as impressive for me as the 25 and 30 yard gains with Sequin. But yes, to me, like what we've seen now from those types of run games now across the league

is that it both lifts the floor and lifts the ceiling of what you're able to do from an offensive standpoint. It's just more ways you're able to beat the opponent defense. That's the biggest change to me. And that's the most important shift to me is that I think I used to conceive of the run game as a floor lifter for an offense. And I think what you've seen by dropping these dynamic backs into already good running games, we've seen what it can do for the ceiling.

And that's cool, right? Like, we've been doing this for how long you and me. To watch the game at the NFL level with, like, real care and intensity, be like, all right, I want to figure out how this works. And I'm really trying to pay attention to it. And to kind of have this light bulb go off a decade into doing this where it's like, oh, man, like we haven't really seen running backs like this in infrastructures like this in the modern NFL.

And I think that it's given us some new information about what's. this can mean. And that's awesome. Like I absolutely love kind of having those moments that sneak up on you as you're still trying to figure out how teams should be built, how teams should be approaching this and what the best offenses in the NFL should look like. And I think this year specifically has been a very cool entry into that. Yeah, it's, it's, it's fun. Look, when I, when I first got to the Eagles in 2011, Marty Morinwig was the, the offensive coordinator. One thing he used to say like every other week in press conferences, what the NFL is a. cyclic league and that is absolutely something I've thought of numerous times here this year.

What is something you think you know about the NFL as we get into December here? So this one, I've been workshopping the last few weeks. I love this one. It's draft related. Quarterbacks should stay in school until they completely exhaust their eligibility. Now, this really crystallized for me after Anthony Richardson got benched a few weeks ago, which came a few weeks after Bryce Young got bench. both guys in their second year, obviously had their down points.

Now, I say this after Bryce Young has played a lot better the last couple of weeks, is coming back to the lineup, Anthony Richardson. He has had some- Bryce Young's played a lot better in the last couple weeks after 18 games in the NFL. So what if those 18 games that happened at Alabama rather than in the NFL? Right. And so to me, like this is three-pronged, all right? So obviously, NIL makes this more conceivable than ever.

College players have more power than ever at that. level and then NFL players have zero leverage, especially when it comes to the draft, and the NFL is not a developmental league. So to me, like that, those are the three prongs here. And I want to like use like a couple cases to just point. So Quinguers, the quarterback at Texas, right? Redshirt Jr. He made about two million dollars reportedly through NIL this past year. What would he have made if he were on the free agent market? We'll say that's something that's debatable. Cam Ward, he made about the same amount of money this past year, transferring from Washington State to down to Miami.

So he was viewed as a day three pick. He was committed to go to the Shrine Bowl about a year ago last January. So he initially declared to go to the draft, was going to go to the Shrine Bowl and said, I'm actually going to go back into the portal, goes to Miami, gets $2 million, plays his way from perceived day three pick to now he's a likely first round pick. We saw Jaden Daniels do something very similar last year as well. But to me, those are like extreme cases. It doesn't even need to be like that extreme.

It could be. What about Bo Nix? that's what I was just going to say, yeah, like, to me, like Bo Nix. Bo Nix made $11 million this year just from his base salary and signing bonus, not including like endorsement deals and like whatever else he's got, but he played his way from likely day three when he was at Auburn. And, you know, he was like, if you told me two years ago that I was going to be in on Bo Nix as a quarterback, I would have told you you were nuts.

So what he did over the course of his time at Oregon is really, really impressive. But, you know, for me, you look at, again, look at what Cam Ward made this past year. he could have entered last year's draft, but said, I'm going to go back, made $2 million last year, improved his draft stock, got more reps as the guy, which is, by the way, it's not like he was lacking for experience. He's a five-year starter at college, two years of incarnate word, two years of Washington State, now this year at Miami. Well, he made more money than Spencer Rattler made this past year as a day three pick in the

New Orleans Saints. And remember, there was that huge chasm between where it was all the guys that went in the first round and then nobody until round six was Spencer Rattler, right? So there was no in between quarter teams were either in or they were out. out. So again, going back to Quinn Ewers, you're a quarterback at Texas, high hopes for this year. Hey, you're going to come out, potential first round pick in 2025. He's a red shirt junior. You could point to Garrett Nussmeier from the LSU. You could say the same thing. But let's just use Quinn Ewers here for this example. We'll see how the college football playoff goes.

But it seems like once this season's over, it's a, it's semi-sonic time for Quinn Ewers. You can't go home, but you can't stay here. We've got Archmanning, you know, in the wings. He's going to be the starter next year. So everyone's like, oh, well, he's just going to go to the Quinn yours is going to go in the NFL. Quinn yours, you've got, it's not just NFL or Texas. Like you can go be the quarterback at Oregon. You can be the quarterback at Florida State. You can go to Ole Miss.

You can go wherever you want next year. Redshirt Jr., you still have another year of eligibility. To me, absolutely, he should be taking advantage of this. He can name his price on the open market. He's a bigger name and prospect than Cam Ward was at this time last year. He can go any of those schools. And whatever is important to him, if he wants to go to the best quarterback coach, the easiest schedule, the best past.

past game weapons, whatever it is, he has all of the power. If he goes into the NFL draft, yeah, like, all right, maybe he's, maybe, optimistically, he's QB1, QB2, QB3, however you want to stack them. Everybody's a little bit different in how they view this quarterback class, but you have no control. Yeah, like, you might get lucky. Maybe you end up with Kevin O'Connell, Sean McVeigh. You end up with one of those guys, right?

And, oh, you go into the quarterback incubator and you can develop and you're put in a great position to succeed. But maybe you end up with Woody Johnson. maybe you end up with David Teper. Maybe you end up with one of these other organizations where the patient is not as is wearing thin very, very fast. And you don't have that runway. You're thrown to the wolves early on.

You're going to be a rookie and you're going to struggle. Right. So to me, it just makes so much sense. In the NFL draft, you don't have that control for these guys. Stay in the incubator as long as possible. Put yourself in the best position for long-term success. The NFL will still be there. People will talk about, oh, like maybe you'll play your way out of it.

no matter what you like if you're queen yours this year did not go to to what you expected because of injury go back take that extra year i feel that way about nuss meyer as well at lSU all of these guys take as much time as you need i love this and i think that the nil part of it is obviously the most important part of it because my knee jerk reaction to this five years ago would have been i don't know when n i all started whatever it started my need jerk reaction to this 10 years ago would have been you have one shot at life changing money yep if you can be the 27th overall pick in the draft and you're going to be a millionaire on May 1st of the following year, that's hard to turn down. Well, if you're going to be a millionaire because you went to Oregon, it's a little bit easier to turn down.

And look at the success that some of these guys who've had really long college careers and have played, have gotten tons of experience, look at what they've been able to do early on in their NFL careers. I don't think it's crazy to say that a guy like Bo Nix or a guy like Jaden Daniels is better set up to weather the storm as an NFL player coming. in at age 24 with 45, 50 college starts under their belt than a 24-year-old kid who's played three college seasons. I think you have a better sense of yourself. You have a better sense of what type of player you are. You're exposed to more things. From an NFL perspective, I can understand the downside of rolling the dice on a 24-year-old potentially lower upside prospect. From the player's perspective, I can understand wanting to come out as more of a fully baked idea where you understand what your deficiencies are and you understand how to overcome them in a way that

somebody like Anthony Richardson is going to have to spend the first two years of his NFL career having to do. Yeah. And if you don't go to an organization that is willing to put that time in, then it's, it just makes that needle even more, even thinner for you to try and thread. I absolutely love that. Last one. What is something you want to know about the NFL or college football as we get into December? I had a handful for these. I ended up settling in on the San Francisco 49ers. I want to know how the rest of the season plays out for San Francisco and how bad do things have to get for them to really think that this window that they have

with this current build is still open for them from a Super Bowl standpoint. And look, things have gone bad for them in every which way. Obviously, injuries have played a huge factor in that. But this is a little bit of an older roster, some of their key players that have gotten a little bit up there. And even if like from an age standpoint, but like, you know, Debo Samuel, like starting to break down a little bit. You know, some of these other guys, you're starting to see, like, the time is starting to wear on this roster. Obviously, Christian McCaffrey, you hate to see him go down this past weekend, but you look at Brandon Ayuk. You start to look around.

And some of these guys, they have committed to. So you're kind of locked into, right. But then there are others where it's like, all right, just looking at it right now. So free agents for this year, Drake Greenlaw, Aaron Banks, Talno, Hufanga, who's been banged up. But obviously has had some great moments there. Charveris Ward is going to be a free agent. They just gave Diomador-Lonore $18 million a year, which I was honestly, I was a little bit high for me. I was surprised that he got that much money.

But to me, that was probably a signal that Ward is probably not back next year. The year after that, you've got Brock Purdy who you're going to pay this off season. Debo Samuel, Juan Jennings, both free agent. George Kittles, Kyle Uschek, both free agents, Leonard Floyd, Drake, Yutouzmatos, Malik Collins, that's three quarters of your defensive line. They're all free agents. At what point do they say, okay, we need to do a little bit of a soft reset here? Or do we just try and keep it, you know, swiping that card and say, all right, we're going to keep trying to push this window open and try and force our way through?

My very novice understanding of the Niners cap, and I think it's worth acknowledging that the Niners handle their cap as well as all but a handful of teams in the NFL. You're very familiar with the team that does that in the Philadelphia Eagles where you can give yourself flexibility. You can give yourself options. The Niners are one of those teams that I think they do a very good job with what their books look like. They, despite having a ton of talent on their team, are still able to be in on the. some of these players because the way that they structure stuff. The Brock Purdy extension, if it's coming and I assume that it is. My guess is that's going to look similar in structure, if not as extreme, then at least in

the same ballpark as like the J-1-Hertz contract, where you're going to look at the first two, three years of that deal and you're going to laugh at what the cap hits are in order to give them maximum flexibility in those seasons. My guess is just, and I have talked to no one about this, but just kind of reading the tea leaves. Yep. They run it back next year. they see what they can do with this group next year, and then in 2026, they decide what sort of hard decisions do we have to make? Because that's the first year reasonably where you can make

some of these financial moves to hit that soft reset button. I don't think that's possible heading into next year. I think enough of this core is still around where you can pull it off and you kind of owe it to yourself to chase it one more time, essentially outside of Charverius Ward. Yeah. So you think Debo is back next year for 2025? I might be reading this wrong. I don't know if they restructured his deal or something, but it seems like they can't really get out of that deal after this year. I don't know if they touched it or what, but I'm looking at it on over the cap. I was looking at it earlier today. They zeroed him out next year. So the way that I'm seeing it is that they would actually

lose money if they cut him heading into next year. I don't know if they quietly did that or what, but I have not heard much about that. That's what it was when you're talking to people behind the scenes. Like draft week, everybody was like, oh, yeah, they're trading Debo this weekend. He's getting dealt. He's getting dealt. He's getting dealt. So that's what everyone was like, all right. And then they drafted Pierce off.

I'm like, all right, I guess they're trading them for a future one or for a two tomorrow, you know, that kind of thing. I think when you're looking at this group, honestly, the team that it reminds me of is, you know, I grew up in Philadelphia. the early Andy Reid teams in the early 2000s that went to four straight NFC championship games. They got through to one Super Bowl. They lose to the Patriots in 2004. And it just kind of strung along. They had a couple of different versions of the build, right?

But ultimately, they just couldn't climb to the top of the mountain top. They move on. And obviously, Andy goes on and he finds Patrick Mahomes and he becomes a future Hall of Famer, rightfully so. I think when you look at this office, I can't help but think that that's like the way that this group is going in San Francisco. It's because like Shanahan, I mean, he's the best in terms of one of the best in terms of his like schematic ingenuity, but just has not been able to get over that hump. I'm interested to see ultimately where this version of this team ultimately ends up.

Listen, here's how I see this. I think that this team has run out of road. I think you need to stockpile the cupboard with some young cost controlled assets. Yeah. And I think as part of that process, you should. trade Kyle Shanahan to the Chicago Bears for like the 15th overall pick in this year's draft and you should move on into the next era of whatever this looks like. John, John, if you want to give me a call, you know, John Parag, you know, the people in the

Jed York, anybody, if you want my insight on this, I'm happy to share it. You know, I'm not an expert or anything, but I could give you some perspective from somebody who pays attention to the league. I'm around. I'll give you my number. Look, when Andy Reid said his goodbye to the, look, Andy, Andy Reid, there was a, you mutual parting of ways in 2020, uh, with the Eagles. He,

like went into the cafeteria, said goodbye to the whole organization, walked out the front door and, you know, very, uh, it was very classy. It was great.

I'm pretty sure the chiefs just like picked them up from the front door. It just flew them right right out to Kansas City. Like it was like, it did not take long for him to be able to find a job. But to your point about, uh, and getting back to like seriousness with the, with the 49ers,

you talk about like them needing to get like cost control assets. Look at some of the day two picks this team has made in recent. Jake Moody, Cameron Latu, Turing Davis Price gone, Danny Gregg gone, Trey Serman gone. That's just in like the last like three years for a team that traded all those assets

in the Trey Lance deal, they have to start hitting on some of these picks. Like they were hoping Drake Jackson was going to turn into something. He hasn't quite lived up to that expectation, obviously. Ricky Piersall, like they need Piersall to be a guy. Not necessarily this year, but like moving down the road once he will move on from Debo, like you need him to be able to step in

and kind of take on that mantle. Yeah, that draft, this draft has been good. Poonie, you know, Rolardo Green has shown them something. So hopefully this year is a step in the right direction. But definitely something worth considering. Fran Duffy, please tell people where they can read, listen, pay attention to the work that you're doing. Yeah. So obviously all Eagles coverage over at all-PHLY.com.

You can check us out. The P.HL.O.I. Eagle show, myself and two of your former co-workers, Bo Wolf and Zach Berman, chopping it up daily over there on the All-P-H-L-Y YouTube page. But then also draft stuff over for all of all cities. So P-H-L-Y, DNV-R, C-H-G-O, doing a lot. of work with all of those, all those markets here in the coming months, just taking a look at the NFL draft. I'm excited for that to kick in the high gear. We've got senior bowl and shrine ball right around the corner. Combine will be right after that and off will be running. So I'm excited to kick it. It's time for you, sickos. You're getting to your point in the calendar.

It's always good to chat with you, buddy. Really, really appreciate it. Appreciate it. We'll talk soon, man. All right, guys, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. Thank you to Fran for his time. We will be back with our week 14 preview on Friday. Until then, Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon.